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I'm ignoring clues here because I'm no good with them (see my ridiculous attempts in Pyrry's game if you want).
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onihunter:
Posts since the game began: 30 (starts with post 196). About a half-dozen of those can be disregarded as meaningless to the game (going to bed etc.) plus one vote
Voting history: Day 1 vote for DarthThienAn at June 05 2010 01:39, following post 406.
Notes:
Suspicious of YellowInk at the start (posts 196 through 226); not-as-suspicious on the second half of Dat 1 (post 290, 355); supports Darth from post 290; math about mafia hits (posts 585, 587)
Thoughts:
Much of onihunter's posting is going as the rest of the town goes. Early on, YellowInk is under suspicion from, among others, zeks, MTF, and MooCow and onihunter agrees with this. Roughly when MTF posts that he thinks YellowInk is town-aligned (around post 229), I see the town's perception shift to the same thing and it's here that you see onihunter start being less suspicious. The only post onihunter makes in this immediate timeframe (from post 227 to post 290) is one saying he'd read the thread, which is meaningless.
He also votes for Darth in a very active voting timeframe in the middle third-ish part of Day 1. There's a short run of votes for YellowInk, followed immediately by a short run of votes for Darth (start here and go until Brownbear changes his vote).
The fact that the town has been so single-minded so far makes it really hard to get a read on someone who's following the pack. He's been active and that's a big point in his favor, but I think we should keep an eye on him once we start having to make tougher decisions (like today's lynch).
Possibly connected to: DarthThienAn? Hard to say.
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AcrossFiveJulys:
Posts since the game began: 5 (starts with post 314) plus one vote
Voting History: Day 1 voted for DarthTheinAn at June 04 2010 20:59 (after post 314 and before post 442)
Notes:
Post 314 is worthless. AFJ therefore is voting before he's said anything in the main thread; Called out for inactivity and responds (post 599); says Darth + YellowInk is likely pro-town (442); claims to be much more active on Day 2 (post 599); responds to Thegilaboy's accusation (post 657).
Thoughts:
I don't like voting without reasoning and especially voting before you've said anything. He's played mafia before and calls Day 1 unimportant but in a previous game he played (here, he says this:
AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
Just for the record, I had a feeling that bill murray was red since the first day as evidenced by my first few posts and vote
Which really doesn't match up with
AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
I don't like to participate and throw accusations out a lot in day 1 of a mafia game because there isn't a lot of evidence to go byand it just serves to confuse.
in post 599. (I was reading over that previous game as it happened and I thought there was plenty of information on Day 1 in it myself).
I also think it's odd that AcrossFiveJulys tells Thegilaboy to look for clues pointing at AFJ in the Day 2 post (in post 657). I'm not sure what, if anything, to make of this.
Furthermore he claims that he's been tracking certain people's behavior (post 599) without posting any thoughts on whom or why. I definitely want to see what AFJ has to say today and I'm interested in whom he was watching.
I'm noting that it's been Day 2 for some time now so if AFJ is going to deliver it's high time he does so. I'm not real happy with his behavior so far and I'm definitely suspicious of him now that I've read over his posts more carefully. His inactivity contributes here as well.
Possibly connected to: DarthThienAn, Thegilaboy
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Note that my choice of the color red has no real importance. I wanted some way to emphasize that wasn't bold (taken by my headings) and was more obvious and readable than italics.
Like I mentioned earlier, MooCow and Zyrre will be examined later on, hopefully before I go to bed tonight.
I'm holding off on voting until either someone presents a compelling argument for a target or till I look at MooCow and Zyrre.
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I am surprised no one look at MTF's posting history yet. He claims he is the third target for the mafia. So I want to examine why he was target.
Number of post before day 2: 13
+ Show Spoiler [post 1] +On June 03 2010 13:48 MTF wrote:By the way, Decafchicken is clearly Mafia.
+ Show Spoiler [post 2] +On June 04 2010 09:53 MTF wrote:Show nested quote +On June 04 2010 09:49 zeks wrote:
Anyone have a list of inactives ?
I'm not gonna bother compiling this cause I'm probably gonna make another mistake on that There aren't many: barth AcrossFiveJulys Icysoul LaXerCannon supernovamaniac These are the only people who have yet to say anything so far. A few others have only made a single post.
+ Show Spoiler [post 3] +On June 04 2010 15:25 MTF wrote:Show nested quote +On June 04 2010 14:45 YellowInk wrote:
Players like Darth, MTF, and crate I lean towards pro town because their thoughts are fairly well reasoned and they are contributing to the thread. This doesn't mean that they're 100% clear, but it's the sort of activity that I want to see from all the posters. I've actually been secretly hoping (and was briefly considering suggesting) that Crate would run, as he's the person I feel the most confidence in at the moment. I guess that this would be a good time to put out how I feel about each candidate at this point, based on several different things. YellowInk:Smart, reasonable. Has a decent plan for the first lynch. Is very responsive, which I'm not counting as a clear negative as many others seem to. I don't like the heavy "scum" accusations being thrown around, but it does serve it's purposes. Also provided good general advice for new/inexperienced players. Still platforming heavily on the clue aspect, which is really the only point of contention (well, that and the almost ad-esque "vote for YellowInk" at the end of many posts) I have with him at this point. DarthTheinAn:Also seems smart, as well as objective (which is a big plus) and geared towards organizing people. Has not been reactionary in a bad way and apparently checked out some of the people who voted for him as potentially being Mafia, due to the quick bandwagon effect that sprang up. I am a little worried about him due just to that fact, but it seems like the majority of the people who voted for him might have done so simply due to recent games together. More or less contending with YellowInk for my vote right now. Zeks:Got a little too much flak for a simple mistake early on. Has an alright plan to open. Seems like a middle-road choice to me right now, vote will currently fall between him and BrownBear should the first two arouse sufficient suspicion. BrownBear:Reasoning is sound, but the later arrival, backing of the already-early-bandwagoned DarthTheinAn, and (most importantly) the specific gunning for the role of Pardoner all make me feel very cautious. Pardoner is even more dangerous of a role for Mafia to grab than Mayor is, simply because of the ability to stop a critical lynch, even with a sure death to follow. All told, I'm hoping for more discussion (and for Crate to randomly decide to run  ).
+ Show Spoiler [post 4] +On June 06 2010 04:23 MTF wrote:
Though I won't quite say "post or you suck", I will join YellowInk in begging for activeness amongst town. I understand that there might not be a lot to say yet, especially if you're new to the game, but investing a little time to even just comment on what other people are saying helps. You may not have been given a blue role, but that doesn't mean the game is going to be boring for you. And going inactive just because you don't have night actions/passive abilities is far worse for town than if town just didn't have any blue roles at all.
An active town has a lot of power. And we can't really win without it, because otherwise everything turns into bandwagoning on the vote just to avoid getting mod-killed. Which could be very dangerous, should such occur without critical thinking/actual reading of the thread.
As will be pretty much customary, I'll be back on a few hours after the next Day post comes up.
In case I'm dead and can't say it then, something to keep in mind: Just because a person claims to be hit last night and only two people died, doesn't mean they were. Mafia can stack hits, and while it would be ultimately unwise to do so, they might be tempted to throw the Godfather out there in an attempt to infiltrate any blossoming town-circles. So, as always, exercise caution.
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Lets look at the interesting post MTF made.
Post 1:He called out decafchicken as mafia.
Post 2:He considered barth (dead), AcrossFiveJulys, Icysoul, LaXerCannon, supernovamaniac as inactive.
Post 3:Felt very neutral towards the running candidates.
Post 4:Hinted that he got a blue role.
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Just looked through all TheGilaBoy's posts aswell as misder's.
TheGilaBoy doesn't seem at all suspicious from his posting, not a lot of substance though. Could still be mafia playing the innocent newbie card, and with some clues pointing to him we should consider him. He is not my first choice of lynching though.
Misder seems more likely to be mafia to me, going by his posts alone. Also his "Whaaaa?" quote could be linked to the unexplainability and suddenness of the printer exploding. Also can't think of anyone else being linked to that clue, since YI most likely is town.
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Uh, LD, decafchicken is not playing and MTF was referencing a running joke among TL Mafia vets.
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I knew the decafchicken hint was weird. Didn't bother to recheck the player list.
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On June 07 2010 00:59 zeks wrote:
Sorry for the lack of posting lately, was out for the whole night. Should have more time tonight.
Nice to see the increase in activity from people, especially the hard work everyones been putting on clue analysis. The clue analysis actually tells us more than the clues itself.
Just wanted to add that in past games the godfather has usually chosen to be a Townie or Veteran.
So far we've lost 3 townies (not bad, not the best either) but if we start losing blue roles we can start pointing fingers to the elected roles.
Obviously the elected roles shouldn't be given a free pass, but that doesn't mean a blue role dying has anything to do with them. There are multiple blue roles, and they probably haven't all roleclaimed to the elected roles. Even if they had, it could be pure luck on the Mafia's part to nab a blue role.
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I think it's fair to say that MTF's hit is real. None of the clues suggested a double hit on the two targets. Furthermore, noone who has claimed to me has told me that they protected MTF. Whoever you are, be sure to claim at least to him since you know he's town (the vigs couldn't hit on night 1).
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A few impressions since Day 2 started:
crate - Nice analysis in my opinion. Doesn't rely on clues like everyone else pretty much has so far, myself included. I agree with his opinions on both onihunter, who has struck me as pretty neutral so far, and AcrossFiveJulys, who has had clues matched up to him as well. I feel like he's pretty certainly town.
Hugoboss21 - Clue linked to his TF2 spy thing, been inactive this entire game, with zero posts since Day 2 started. If we're still trying to get inactives out of the game, he's a good choice for lynching.
LaXerCannon - Voted for Thegilaboy almost immediately after he was linked to clues. His reasoning was that he wanted to vote based solely on clues, which is fishy given how nebulous the clues are in general, as well as the fact that we hadn't even fleshed all the clue connections out at that point.
Zyrre - Has became more active since Day 2 began. I don't agree with his interpretation of Misder being suspicious, since Misder has seemed pretty harmless so far in my opinion, but otherwise he seems like a fair minded guy.
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Oh god, I just wrote a wall of text and accidentally closed my post as I was looking back through the thread -_-; fail.
2nd attempt coming up...
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On June 07 2010 03:08 YellowInk wrote:
Whoever you are, be sure to claim at least to him since you know he's town (the vigs couldn't hit on night 1).
I'm not sure what you're suggesting here.
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The ElyAs hit seems suspicious to me. It has already been brought up that a scum outrunning ElyAs and not killing him as they passed seems unrealistic. How could he have enough time to sit down on the courthouse steps and wait for ElyAs to come around at full speed? One possible explanation that has been offered has been that the scum in question could 'blink'. Here's another:
It could be possible that two scum were involved in the death of ElyAs. One to follow him and chase him to the courthouse and another waiting in ambush there to kill him. At night, it's not hard for two masked men to look the same. Additionally, we actually have two players that 'look the same' playing in this game as MooCow and Tyranos_Nivek have identical profiles. The implications of such a double hit would be that MTF is lying about being targeted on night1.
I am not convinced that the theory above is what actually took place but it seems to be a possibility.
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On June 07 2010 03:58 crate wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2010 03:08 YellowInk wrote:
Whoever you are, be sure to claim at least to him since you know he's town (the vigs couldn't hit on night 1). I'm not sure what you're suggesting here.
He's suggesting that the medic who saved MTF come out and tell MTF that he's a blue role/they're both on the same side. Questionable tactic though, since MTF probably wouldn't be able to trust the guy - it could just be some mafia member trying to gain his trust. MTF has no way of verifying whether the person PMing him actually saved him.
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On June 07 2010 04:06 littlechava wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2010 03:58 crate wrote:On June 07 2010 03:08 YellowInk wrote:
Whoever you are, be sure to claim at least to him since you know he's town (the vigs couldn't hit on night 1). I'm not sure what you're suggesting here. He's suggesting that the medic who saved MTF come out and tell MTF that he's a blue role/they're both on the same side. Questionable tactic though, since MTF probably wouldn't be able to trust the guy - it could just be some mafia member trying to gain his trust. MTF has no way of verifying whether the person PMing him actually saved him.
How do you know it was a medic who saved MTF? He could be a veteran (which would also explain why in his very first post he says he's not running for mayor; veteran is the worst role for the town to elect).
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On June 07 2010 04:05 sputnik.theory wrote:
The ElyAs hit seems suspicious to me. It has already been brought up that a scum outrunning ElyAs and not killing him as they passed seems unrealistic. How could he have enough time to sit down on the courthouse steps and wait for ElyAs to come around at full speed? One possible explanation that has been offered has been that the scum in question could 'blink'. Here's another:
It could be possible that two scum were involved in the death of ElyAs. One to follow him and chase him to the courthouse and another waiting in ambush there to kill him. At night, it's not hard for two masked men to look the same. Additionally, we actually have two players that 'look the same' playing in this game as MooCow and Tyranos_Nivek have identical profiles. The implications of such a double hit would be that MTF is lying about being targeted on night1.
I am not convinced that the theory above is what actually took place but it seems to be a possibility.
That'd be a pretty complex ploy. Has something like this ever happened in past games?
What would it really accomplish though? If no medic saved MTF, obviously no medic would roleclaim to him either. MTF would have suspicion cast away from him, but afaik there wasn't much on him in the first place, and one single townie can't do very much right?
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So we're getting pretty late in the first half of day 1. Lets turn up the heat a bit.
Unfortunately, many of the people who were mostly inactive before are still mostly or completely inactive now. So lets work with my night 1 list minus people who have picked up a bit:
CompX
Deucegladlier
TyranoS_NiveK
&LaXerCannon
&Misder
*Icysoul
*supernovamaniac
Among these, LaXerCannon and Misder have posted a few times since (though all things considered, we need a lot more from them to make up for near total inactivity day 1), so lets eliminate them for now. The * are under warning for inaction and may be modkilled tonight. If they speak up, they better speak LOUDLY and talk about what they think of this game.
That leaves us with three serious inactives - people who have posted/voted to avoid modkill but havn't provided any substance. From what little we DO know of these three, what do you all think?
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On June 07 2010 04:05 sputnik.theory wrote:
The ElyAs hit seems suspicious to me. It has already been brought up that a scum outrunning ElyAs and not killing him as they passed seems unrealistic. How could he have enough time to sit down on the courthouse steps and wait for ElyAs to come around at full speed? One possible explanation that has been offered has been that the scum in question could 'blink'. Here's another:
It could be possible that two scum were involved in the death of ElyAs. One to follow him and chase him to the courthouse and another waiting in ambush there to kill him. At night, it's not hard for two masked men to look the same. Additionally, we actually have two players that 'look the same' playing in this game as MooCow and Tyranos_Nivek have identical profiles. The implications of such a double hit would be that MTF is lying about being targeted on night1.
I am not convinced that the theory above is what actually took place but it seems to be a possibility.
Interesting. This does seem like a possibility.
Can't really "profile" Tyranos on his posting since there are so few posts.
MooCow consistently ask questions about the game and refers to the mafia as "them" or "how could they not get a candidate in" etc. Might be an attempt to distance himself from mafia, or he is just new and didn't research mafia games a lot.
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I didn't formulate that very clearly. I mean it seems possible the clue might point towards them and that moocow could be mafia.
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On June 06 2010 23:06 LaXerCannon wrote:+ Show Spoiler +From TheGilaboy, I naturally see the weak DT connection but I also see other connections:
ElyAs was being stalked and BloodyC0bbler was as well in day 1 and the fact that he has a stalker in his profile helps, but what really made me vote for him was the fact that the masked figure beat ElyAs to the courthouse even though he was being followed. If the masked figure really passed ElyAs, don't you think the murderer would've killed ElyAs as he passed him?
My only plausible explanation is that the masked figure blinked which is an ability for the stalker.
This is a very succinct explanation. Seems quite plausible. Well done.
On June 07 2010 04:05 sputnik.theory wrote:+ Show Spoiler +The ElyAs hit seems suspicious to me. It has already been brought up that a scum outrunning ElyAs and not killing him as they passed seems unrealistic. How could he have enough time to sit down on the courthouse steps and wait for ElyAs to come around at full speed? One possible explanation that has been offered has been that the scum in question could 'blink'. Here's another:
It could be possible that two scum were involved in the death of ElyAs. One to follow him and chase him to the courthouse and another waiting in ambush there to kill him. At night, it's not hard for two masked men to look the same. Additionally, we actually have two players that 'look the same' playing in this game as MooCow and Tyranos_Nivek have identical profiles. The implications of such a double hit would be that MTF is lying about being targeted on night1.
I am not convinced that the theory above is what actually took place but it seems to be a possibility.
The biggest flaw with this theory is, quite simply, "why?" Why would Mafia put two hits on either of them, when they could have stacked those two on a higher profile/more active townie?
The only plausible implication would be that I am myself doing what I warned town of before I left for work yesterday.
On June 06 2010 04:23 MTF wrote:+ Show Spoiler +In case I'm dead and can't say it then, something to keep in mind: Just because a person claims to be hit last night and only two people died, doesn't mean they were. Mafia can stack hits, and while it would be ultimately unwise to do so, they might be tempted to throw the Godfather out there in an attempt to infiltrate any blossoming town-circles. So, as always, exercise caution.
It'd be a ridiculously convoluted scheme for me to be engaging in at this point.
On June 07 2010 04:06 littlechava wrote:+ Show Spoiler +He's suggesting that the medic who saved MTF come out and tell MTF that he's a blue role/they're both on the same side. Questionable tactic though, since MTF probably wouldn't be able to trust the guy - it could just be some mafia member trying to gain his trust. MTF has no way of verifying whether the person PMing him actually saved him.
If any more Mafia members would like to come over and say hi, I'll gladly invite them for a stay. 
I'll be going over clues again after work tonight, as well as reviewing the post histories of a chosen few individuals, hopefully with as much analysis as crate provided. Keep looking and talking people!
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On June 07 2010 04:40 MTF wrote:
It'd be a ridiculously convoluted scheme for me to be engaging in at this point.
And here I was thinking that the clues early on in the game are supposed to be vague and thus lead to 'convoluted' theories... that said, I am by no means convinced that the post I made above states the truth. It was simply another possible scenario that had not been talked about lately.
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EPT
