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BUT even with the recent 3-0 result vs Zest aligulac puts the likelihood of a 3-0 in souls favor at around 5%.
While 5% certainly represents a low odd of this result happening, it's still gonna happen once every 20 games (incredible maths I know). This 20 number is actually a good example, because in the case of a 16 players tournament with 4 groups played in a GSL format (like this one), there are in fact 20 series (5 per group) being played in the group stage. Which means, statistically, a 5% odd result is likely to happen around once per group stage. Does that mean there's one series being thrown every tournament? Obviously not.
Yes, Pinnacle voiding the bet makes it somewhat suspicious. But voiding bets is a somewhat common occurrence that proves nothing, and as we have no info as to why the bet was voided, all we have left is unfounded speculation. I'm just saying to proceed with caution when people's careers are at stakes.
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On July 17 2020 16:41 fastr wrote:Show nested quote +BUT even with the recent 3-0 result vs Zest aligulac puts the likelihood of a 3-0 in souls favor at around 5%. While 5% certainly represents a low odd of this result happening, it's still gonna happen once every 20 games (incredible maths I know). This 20 number is actually a good example, because in the case of a 16 players tournament with 4 groups played in a GSL format (like this one), there are in fact 20 series (5 per group) being played in the group stage. Which means, statistically, a 5% odd result is likely to happen around once per group stage. Does that mean there's one series being thrown every tournament? Obviously not. Yes, Pinnacle voiding the bet makes it somewhat suspicious. But voiding bets is a somewhat common occurrence that proves nothing, and as we have no info as to why the bet was voided, all we have left is unfounded speculation. I'm just saying to proceed with caution when people's careers are at stakes.
Yeah I agree with caution, I am not trying to say someone is guilty I am just adding in on the topic and saying what my opinion of the situation is. Just because I am of the opinion of it being shady and likley to be some kind of shady business and even though someones career is at stake I will still share my opinion here for the sake of the discussion.
You seem to well versed in math, so tell me what is the likelihood that the 1/20 games situation coincides with such shady betting movments that the bet is voided? You saying voided bets are "somewhat common occurance" is simply not true, what is common to you? 1/5, 1/10, 1/20? Bets are rarely voided across sports, I believe if you randomly made 100 sports bets right now less that 5% would be voided, maybe even none at all. Sure voided bets do happen but that they happen and you see news about them doesn't mean that they are common in other sports.
Lets for the sake of the argument say that the chance of any sportsbet being voided is 5% (which I really think is way higher than reality), the likelihood of both soul 3-0 Zest AND for that bet to voided at the same time is 0.25%. So 1/400, you wanna argue with math as to how this is not "really" suspicious, well you cant, mathematically it is suspicious. Doesn't mean he is guilty but the way you angle it is simply wrong.
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On July 17 2020 08:22 geokilla wrote:
This is surprising but what's more surprising is how Zest played the matches. He was favoured to win and rightfully so, but for the first two games, Zest basically played with only 2 gases, building up a Gateway army against Terran bio while floating 1K minerals.
Yeah this isn't unusual for Zest at all, especially when a match is minor/online. Also when games are played at strange hours or cross server you kind of expect randomness and weird results every now and again.
What's more likely is betting sites realise they can find an excuse to void a match they'd lose out on and go for it. It's worth them losing money because Zest decides to not try hard once every 20 matches.
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On July 17 2020 17:24 Shuffleblade wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2020 16:41 fastr wrote:BUT even with the recent 3-0 result vs Zest aligulac puts the likelihood of a 3-0 in souls favor at around 5%. While 5% certainly represents a low odd of this result happening, it's still gonna happen once every 20 games (incredible maths I know). This 20 number is actually a good example, because in the case of a 16 players tournament with 4 groups played in a GSL format (like this one), there are in fact 20 series (5 per group) being played in the group stage. Which means, statistically, a 5% odd result is likely to happen around once per group stage. Does that mean there's one series being thrown every tournament? Obviously not. Yes, Pinnacle voiding the bet makes it somewhat suspicious. But voiding bets is a somewhat common occurrence that proves nothing, and as we have no info as to why the bet was voided, all we have left is unfounded speculation. I'm just saying to proceed with caution when people's careers are at stakes. Yeah I agree with caution, I am not trying to say someone is guilty I am just adding in on the topic and saying what my opinion of the situation is. Just because I am of the opinion of it being shady and likley to be some kind of shady business and even though someones career is at stake I will still share my opinion here for the sake of the discussion. You seem to well versed in math, so tell me what is the likelihood that the 1/20 games situation coincides with such shady betting movments that the bet is voided? You saying voided bets are "somewhat common occurance" is simply not true, what is common to you? 1/5, 1/10, 1/20? Bets are rarely voided across sports, I believe if you randomly made 100 sports bets right now less that 5% would be voided, maybe even none at all. Sure voided bets do happen but that they happen and you see news about them doesn't mean that they are common in other sports. Lets for the sake of the argument say that the chance of any sportsbet being voided is 5% (which I really think is way higher than reality), the likelihood of both soul 3-0 Zest AND for that bet to voided at the same time is 0.25%. So 1/400, you wanna argue with math as to how this is not "really" suspicious, well you cant, mathematically it is suspicious. Doesn't mean he is guilty but the way you angle it is simply wrong.
1/400 still is not really suspicious considering how many career games Zest has. An occurence like this is pretty likely to happen at one point if you play enough career games.
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On July 17 2020 16:41 fastr wrote:Show nested quote +BUT even with the recent 3-0 result vs Zest aligulac puts the likelihood of a 3-0 in souls favor at around 5%. While 5% certainly represents a low odd of this result happening, it's still gonna happen once every 20 games (incredible maths I know). This 20 number is actually a good example, because in the case of a 16 players tournament with 4 groups played in a GSL format (like this one), there are in fact 20 series (5 per group) being played in the group stage. Which means, statistically, a 5% odd result is likely to happen around once per group stage. Does that mean there's one series being thrown every tournament? Obviously not. Yes, Pinnacle voiding the bet makes it somewhat suspicious. But voiding bets is a somewhat common occurrence that proves nothing, and as we have no info as to why the bet was voided, all we have left is unfounded speculation. I'm just saying to proceed with caution when people's careers are at stakes.
I think you misunderstand why Pinnacle void bets. They don't do it simply for low probability outcomes (that would be ludicrous and unfair).
They will have industry-standard algorithms that detect with a reasonably high certainty that a very unusual amount of money has been put on a bet (likely a whole magnitude of money more than normal).
I posted this on another thread, which I think led to be getting banned so I will do so with more caution: These bets are not void on the off chance there's match-fixing - they're void because they believe there's a strong possibility. I don't understand what you mean by "voiding bets is a somewhat common occurrence" but this is highly misleading. This is not a common occurrence - where is your data to back that up?
There are one or two big name players that had VERY suspect matches voided with the last match fixing scandal. It frustrates me to see them still competing because any serious investigation could have seen them banned.
However, I do agree with you that this is not enough evidence to straight up ban players BUT should lead to a thorough investigation by an organisation without a vested interest in minimizing a scandal (i.e. not Kespa). I don't think it was a coincidence that no 'proper' Kespa players were convicted of match fixing when the evidence was really quite plain to see.
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If only betting wasn't a thing there would be no match fixing
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On July 17 2020 17:44 Charoisaur wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2020 17:24 Shuffleblade wrote:On July 17 2020 16:41 fastr wrote:BUT even with the recent 3-0 result vs Zest aligulac puts the likelihood of a 3-0 in souls favor at around 5%. While 5% certainly represents a low odd of this result happening, it's still gonna happen once every 20 games (incredible maths I know). This 20 number is actually a good example, because in the case of a 16 players tournament with 4 groups played in a GSL format (like this one), there are in fact 20 series (5 per group) being played in the group stage. Which means, statistically, a 5% odd result is likely to happen around once per group stage. Does that mean there's one series being thrown every tournament? Obviously not. Yes, Pinnacle voiding the bet makes it somewhat suspicious. But voiding bets is a somewhat common occurrence that proves nothing, and as we have no info as to why the bet was voided, all we have left is unfounded speculation. I'm just saying to proceed with caution when people's careers are at stakes. Yeah I agree with caution, I am not trying to say someone is guilty I am just adding in on the topic and saying what my opinion of the situation is. Just because I am of the opinion of it being shady and likley to be some kind of shady business and even though someones career is at stake I will still share my opinion here for the sake of the discussion. You seem to well versed in math, so tell me what is the likelihood that the 1/20 games situation coincides with such shady betting movments that the bet is voided? You saying voided bets are "somewhat common occurance" is simply not true, what is common to you? 1/5, 1/10, 1/20? Bets are rarely voided across sports, I believe if you randomly made 100 sports bets right now less that 5% would be voided, maybe even none at all. Sure voided bets do happen but that they happen and you see news about them doesn't mean that they are common in other sports. Lets for the sake of the argument say that the chance of any sportsbet being voided is 5% (which I really think is way higher than reality), the likelihood of both soul 3-0 Zest AND for that bet to voided at the same time is 0.25%. So 1/400, you wanna argue with math as to how this is not "really" suspicious, well you cant, mathematically it is suspicious. Doesn't mean he is guilty but the way you angle it is simply wrong. 1/400 still is not really suspicious considering how many career games Zest has. An occurence like this is pretty likely to happen at one point if you play enough career games.
This line of thinking is also flawed. Simple combinatorics assumes bets are randomly voided. Also 5% voided bets is not even close, it's way less than 1%.
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On July 17 2020 17:44 Charoisaur wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2020 17:24 Shuffleblade wrote:On July 17 2020 16:41 fastr wrote:BUT even with the recent 3-0 result vs Zest aligulac puts the likelihood of a 3-0 in souls favor at around 5%. While 5% certainly represents a low odd of this result happening, it's still gonna happen once every 20 games (incredible maths I know). This 20 number is actually a good example, because in the case of a 16 players tournament with 4 groups played in a GSL format (like this one), there are in fact 20 series (5 per group) being played in the group stage. Which means, statistically, a 5% odd result is likely to happen around once per group stage. Does that mean there's one series being thrown every tournament? Obviously not. Yes, Pinnacle voiding the bet makes it somewhat suspicious. But voiding bets is a somewhat common occurrence that proves nothing, and as we have no info as to why the bet was voided, all we have left is unfounded speculation. I'm just saying to proceed with caution when people's careers are at stakes. Yeah I agree with caution, I am not trying to say someone is guilty I am just adding in on the topic and saying what my opinion of the situation is. Just because I am of the opinion of it being shady and likley to be some kind of shady business and even though someones career is at stake I will still share my opinion here for the sake of the discussion. You seem to well versed in math, so tell me what is the likelihood that the 1/20 games situation coincides with such shady betting movments that the bet is voided? You saying voided bets are "somewhat common occurance" is simply not true, what is common to you? 1/5, 1/10, 1/20? Bets are rarely voided across sports, I believe if you randomly made 100 sports bets right now less that 5% would be voided, maybe even none at all. Sure voided bets do happen but that they happen and you see news about them doesn't mean that they are common in other sports. Lets for the sake of the argument say that the chance of any sportsbet being voided is 5% (which I really think is way higher than reality), the likelihood of both soul 3-0 Zest AND for that bet to voided at the same time is 0.25%. So 1/400, you wanna argue with math as to how this is not "really" suspicious, well you cant, mathematically it is suspicious. Doesn't mean he is guilty but the way you angle it is simply wrong. 1/400 still is not really suspicious considering how many career games Zest has. An occurence like this is pretty likely to happen at one point if you play enough career games.
Yeah you are very right about that, it is true. That is still without considering why the bet was voided, who or what organization and for what reason bet big amounts of money on Zest losing in that particular series while the rest of Zests games against clear underdogs he won and few bet against him?
The other factor, sure 1/400 games means it is bound to happen at some point by pure chance so IF this was the only game with Zest losing to a lesser player that got voided it isn't really mathematically surprising. That however is arguing with the presumption that you know that any of Zests other games in the last year hasn't been voided by Pinnacle. This is simply the first time a bettor brings it up, doesn't mean it is the only time it happened.
Once again I'm not saying Zest is guilty I just find it shady and I am arguing from my perspective as to why I don't think its unlikely that something not entirely above board is going on.
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It seems unlikely that the Zest-Soul game was fixed mainly because it is so obvious. If I remember rightly weren't the games that Life and YoDa match fixed single maps? Having an entire series be fixed seems both way too obvious considering the respective calibre of Zest and Soul and doesn't seem to be the modus operandi of match fixers in the past.
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On July 17 2020 17:47 1gragequit wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2020 16:41 fastr wrote:BUT even with the recent 3-0 result vs Zest aligulac puts the likelihood of a 3-0 in souls favor at around 5%. While 5% certainly represents a low odd of this result happening, it's still gonna happen once every 20 games (incredible maths I know). This 20 number is actually a good example, because in the case of a 16 players tournament with 4 groups played in a GSL format (like this one), there are in fact 20 series (5 per group) being played in the group stage. Which means, statistically, a 5% odd result is likely to happen around once per group stage. Does that mean there's one series being thrown every tournament? Obviously not. Yes, Pinnacle voiding the bet makes it somewhat suspicious. But voiding bets is a somewhat common occurrence that proves nothing, and as we have no info as to why the bet was voided, all we have left is unfounded speculation. I'm just saying to proceed with caution when people's careers are at stakes. I think you misunderstand why Pinnacle void bets. They don't do it simply for low probability outcomes (that would be ludicrous and unfair). They will have industry-standard algorithms that detect with a reasonably high certainty that a very unusual amount of money has been put on a bet (likely a whole magnitude of money more than normal).
I never implied that a bookmaker would void a bet because of a low probably outcome lol, that would indeed be insane.
I probably shouldn't have said "somewhat common occurrence" regarding voiding bets, I don't bet myself so all I have is second hand information, and I agree that all things considered, it remains pretty rare. My point is: voiding bets has happened several times before, and that didn't results in anyone getting busted for match fixing. Now does that prove it never happened? Obviously not, but it doesn't disprove it either.
Again, algorithms detecting unusual sums of money being put on a bet are cause for concerns, and I guess that's a good enough reason for a bookie to void a bet, but it's certainly not any proof of match fixing.
I also feel like some people here are having doubts about this result due to TL's famous Korean elitism. I know Zest is a legend and he's still very good, but it's 2020, foreigners can and do beat top koreans, even in TvP thanks to a more favorable patch. Did Parting also throw against Gabe yesterday? The playing field has leveled, expect those kind of results more and more.
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On July 17 2020 18:28 fastr wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2020 17:47 1gragequit wrote:On July 17 2020 16:41 fastr wrote:BUT even with the recent 3-0 result vs Zest aligulac puts the likelihood of a 3-0 in souls favor at around 5%. While 5% certainly represents a low odd of this result happening, it's still gonna happen once every 20 games (incredible maths I know). This 20 number is actually a good example, because in the case of a 16 players tournament with 4 groups played in a GSL format (like this one), there are in fact 20 series (5 per group) being played in the group stage. Which means, statistically, a 5% odd result is likely to happen around once per group stage. Does that mean there's one series being thrown every tournament? Obviously not. Yes, Pinnacle voiding the bet makes it somewhat suspicious. But voiding bets is a somewhat common occurrence that proves nothing, and as we have no info as to why the bet was voided, all we have left is unfounded speculation. I'm just saying to proceed with caution when people's careers are at stakes. I think you misunderstand why Pinnacle void bets. They don't do it simply for low probability outcomes (that would be ludicrous and unfair). They will have industry-standard algorithms that detect with a reasonably high certainty that a very unusual amount of money has been put on a bet (likely a whole magnitude of money more than normal). I never implied that a bookmaker would void a bet because of a low probably outcome lol, that would indeed be insane. I probably shouldn't have said "somewhat common occurrence" regarding voiding bets, I don't bet myself so all I have is second hand information, and I agree that all things considered, it remains pretty rare. My point is: voiding bets has happened several times before, and that didn't results in anyone getting busted for match fixing. Now does that prove it never happened? Obviously not, but it doesn't disprove it either. Again, algorithms detecting unusual sums of money being put on a bet are cause for concerns, and I guess that's a good enough reason for a bookie to void a bet, but it's certainly not any proof of match fixing. I also feel like some people here are having doubts about this result due to TL's famous Korean elitism. I know Zest is a legend and he's still very good, but it's 2020, foreigners can and do beat top koreans, even in TvP thanks to a more favorable patch. Did Parting also throw against Gabe yesterday? The playing field has leveled, expect those kind of results more and more.
You still don't get it. It has nothing to do with Korean elitism. It has almost nothing to do with it being vs soul. Pinnacle void bets when the betting pattern is so unusual that they do not plausibly believe that it is genuine. We're talking, say, (yes I'm making up these numbers) $1k being bet on each Crate Drop match then $20k being bet on the Zest match.
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didn't read the whole thread but want to say that alastor posted about zest's matchfixing many many times, you should definitely take a look
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On July 17 2020 17:47 DropBear wrote:
If only betting wasn't a thing there would be no match fixing
my sentiment aswell. betting did so much damage to this game...
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Canada8991 Posts
On July 17 2020 20:32 llllllllllIIIIIlllll wrote:
didn't read the whole thread but want to say that alastor posted about zest's matchfixing many many times, you should definitely take a look
Can you give a link/ tell us who "alastor" is please?
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On July 17 2020 21:25 Nakajin wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2020 20:32 llllllllllIIIIIlllll wrote:
didn't read the whole thread but want to say that alastor posted about zest's matchfixing many many times, you should definitely take a look Can you give a link/ tell us who "alastor" is please?
Spanish zerg. I went through his twitter feed (kind of cringe) and he complains about lines moving from time to time. Last he complained about apparently the match went against his "prediction" so he just went "Seems like this one was legit". Unless he does something more sophisticated outside of Twitter, seems like a dude angry about life ^.^
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On July 17 2020 17:47 DropBear wrote:
If only betting wasn't a thing there would be no match fixing
If my aunt had b...
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Canada8991 Posts
On July 17 2020 21:46 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2020 21:25 Nakajin wrote:On July 17 2020 20:32 llllllllllIIIIIlllll wrote:
didn't read the whole thread but want to say that alastor posted about zest's matchfixing many many times, you should definitely take a look Can you give a link/ tell us who "alastor" is please? Spanish zerg. I went through his twitter feed (kind of cringe) and he complains about lines moving from time to time. Last he complained about apparently the match went against his "prediction" so he just went "Seems like this one was legit". Unless he does something more sophisticated outside of Twitter, seems like a dude angry about life ^.^
I'll take you on your word on it, got too depress scrolling through his feed to get to the match fixing stuff lol.
By curiosity, someone know how Pinacle odd work? Are the odds just decided by betting or is there an "in-house" odd and if so where does it come from?
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South Korea2107 Posts
i wonder if changwon police are keeping a close eye on sc2 still now that kespa is gone
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EPT
