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Zzzapper
Profile Joined September 2011
1797 Posts
July 17 2020 13:17 GMT
#41
On the topic of Aligulac predictions, they are known to be inaccurate for lopsided matchups, underestimating the likelihood of upsets. I believe the site even states that. so 5% may be closer to 8-10% in reality.
There are other issues with using that function for such as the partially separated player (and thus, rating) pools in the different regions, the questionable validity of the individual matchup ratings, etc. If you want to make allegations of this gravity, you should consider staying away from Aligulac
Luolis
Profile Blog Joined May 2012
Finland7170 Posts
July 17 2020 13:28 GMT
#42
Some clips of the game that seem atleast somewhat fishy.



pro cheese woman / Its never Sunny in Finland. Perkele / FinnishStarcraftTrivia
SpaceBoar
Profile Joined November 2019
52 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-07-17 14:06:48
July 17 2020 14:00 GMT
#43
On July 17 2020 22:28 Luolis wrote:
Some clips of the game that seem atleast somewhat fishy.

https://clips.twitch.tv/DullClearPistachioBudStar
https://clips.twitch.tv/SuaveWealthyEelShazBotstix
https://clips.twitch.tv/SmellySteamyGuanacoCurseLit


That last clip is really making me wonder. Zest doesn't seem to be much behind and he is still banking ca. 1000 minerals and gas, while not really microing anything. It could be he was just tired of course but it's still surprising that a pro veteran would have such a bad spending skill. I thought after all these years of practice they do it almost automatically without thinking about it.
Serral | soO | HeroMarine | SpeCial
Fuzer
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Finland266 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-07-17 14:29:43
July 17 2020 14:11 GMT
#44
I actually just watched the VODS and to be honest, Zest caliber player shouldn't make that many mistakes, here are couple clips I just made and I explain whats wrong with them:

1st: https://clips.twitch.tv/DullClearPistachioBudStar He has observer and sees 2 medivacs, there are no other things on the map that needs attention. Let me be clear, if you see that happening you don't do anything else than make sure that you kill that medivac, it should be very easy and normal task to do. BUT WHAT Happens is that Zest blinks (shows he sees them), attacks moves the stalkers, DOES SOMETHING else(unselecteed) and surprisingly no vacs get destroyed and on top of that he takes bad fight behind that.

I ended that clip there because I don't think this next one after that is that obvious, but I mention it anyways: The drop that comes to his 3rd after is not scouted, so I can't blame him that he didn't left any units there, but he sees the mines being burrowed and chooses to recall weakened stalker army on top of that nexus... The mines do their job.

2nd: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/680307115?t=1h23m11s This is too long me to clip it, but it starts there, he scouts reactor factory and sees 2 hellions, he sees NO STARPORT (which SHOULD be next to factory / barracks.) I mean there are 2 ways the attack comes, straight runby to natural OR with drop. Well he makes a wall to natural, which is correct play, but SOMEHOW doesn't want to build pylons to the edge of the base, so he would see the drop coming(which was pretty obvious at this point)... I MEAN LOOK AT THIS MINIMAP https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/451771912570535952/733677011670794300/unknown.png . On top of that he builds ?sentry? AND gets supply blocked so he can't warpin from the 2nd warpgate.

Outcome is clear, he loses 16 probes for amateur mistake.

3rd: https://clips.twitch.tv/SmellySteamyGuanacoCurseLit scouts with hallusination phoenix that there is medivac, also he knows there is more likely more medivacs because the other observer haven't seem them going any other way, so its very likely there is more (watch the VOD how the vacs came to this position, clip is only 60s), what Zest does: "Well I just leave now, welcome to my base", "Oh he came with 4 full of units. I guess I attack there with my 5 stalkers, colossus and sentry"... Someone insert a surprised pikachu face here...

After that Zest attacks while floating money and without warpprism, which obviously doesn't go too well...

4th: https://clips.twitch.tv/SuaveWealthyEelShazBotstix This is kinda 2 minor things but they just caught on my eye... Even on 6000 MMR Protoss players won't make these kinds of mistakes, even they know how important units colossies are: He sees vikings chasing he even attacks them with Stalkers but then he just stopped caring, Stalkers went to "wrong way"... Also that Sacrifacing DT:s on that point to kill couple SCV:s are never worth it, and player of his caliber knows it. I mean he saw that PF aint going to die, he blinked them and killed 6 SCV for 3 DTs when the 2nd option wouldve been just back off for now and come back later, which would ALWAYS been the correct choice.

Also if someone says that he moved Stalkers back because he was afraid the bio, he already sees BIO is far away and secondly he knows BIO can't chase because he has 2nd disruptor shot ready, so getting 3-4 vikings and saving colossus for max 1-2 stalkers IF Vikings continue the chase is always FAR better deal.


I watched the VODs closely and I have to say there are way more mistakes than these I clipped... There are LOT of mistakes, LOT. I mean I'm MMR is 5.8k on EU and the Protoss players I face there have better decision making and micro than Zest had on these games and Zest is WORLD CLASS player.

So if Pinnacle had way more activity on this series than there normally is I think my opinion is clear. BUT correct me I'm wrong, it ain't confirmed that there were way more activity by Pinnacle?


Edit. Fucking Luolis posted my clips beforehand 8D
Andi_Goldberger
Profile Joined July 2018
Germany1608 Posts
July 17 2020 14:12 GMT
#45
On July 17 2020 23:00 SpaceBoar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 17 2020 22:28 Luolis wrote:
Some clips of the game that seem atleast somewhat fishy.

https://clips.twitch.tv/DullClearPistachioBudStar
https://clips.twitch.tv/SuaveWealthyEelShazBotstix
https://clips.twitch.tv/SmellySteamyGuanacoCurseLit


That last clip is really making me wonder. Zest doesn't seem to be much behind and he is still banking ca. 1000 minerals and gas, while not really microing anything. It could be he was just tired of course but it's still surprising that a pro veteran would have such a bad spending skill. I thought after all these years of practice they do it almost automatically without thinking about it.

he does this all the time. its called the zest bank. I think its so he can react to drops and stuff but I dont think its optimal at all
~~~~~
Luolis
Profile Blog Joined May 2012
Finland7170 Posts
July 17 2020 14:15 GMT
#46
On July 17 2020 23:11 Fuzer wrote:
Edit. Fucking Luolis posted my clips beforehand 8D

I take all fame ":D"
pro cheese woman / Its never Sunny in Finland. Perkele / FinnishStarcraftTrivia
Dav1oN
Profile Joined January 2012
Ukraine3164 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-07-17 14:43:08
July 17 2020 14:15 GMT
#47
Not sure why it looks fishy, even 3rd clip.

He had only 6 gates + 1 robo on 3 bases, he used warp cycles without any significant delays.

During souL's drop he Zest was bulding additional 4 gates + dark shrine + second robo, +2 weapon and warp prism speed, a bit later he added a nexus + 3 pylons.

Zest had no optimal way to spend that bank during drop on the main. He also mostly used nexus energy. Plus we all know he tend to bank

The only thing I can clearly see is that Zest played with ping higher than average, well and maybe a bit sloppy. Base layout wasn't good either.
In memory of Geoff "iNcontroL" Robinson 11.09.1985 - 21.07.2019 A tribute to incredible man, embodiment of joy, esports titan, starcraft community pillar all in one. You will always be remembered!
stilt
Profile Joined October 2012
France2755 Posts
July 17 2020 14:17 GMT
#48
The MKP vs byul's case and other weird stuffs like this weren't voided before right ? It sounds quiet fishy, I think time to time some players resort to these usages just because sometimes, it might be hard to decline easy money.
Zzzapper
Profile Joined September 2011
1797 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-07-17 14:21:39
July 17 2020 14:19 GMT
#49
On July 17 2020 23:00 SpaceBoar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 17 2020 22:28 Luolis wrote:
Some clips of the game that seem atleast somewhat fishy.

https://clips.twitch.tv/DullClearPistachioBudStar
https://clips.twitch.tv/SuaveWealthyEelShazBotstix
https://clips.twitch.tv/SmellySteamyGuanacoCurseLit


That last clip is really making me wonder. Zest doesn't seem to be much behind and he is still banking ca. 1000 minerals and gas, while not really microing anything. It could be he was just tired of course but it's still surprising that a pro veteran would have such a bad spending skill. I thought after all these years of practice they do it almost automatically without thinking about it.

Zest is the one player where floating a lot of resources should never be a cause for concern. Sure, it mostly happens when he's focused on micro but it's not only then. For a player like him, uncharacteristic micro mistakes are more suspicious imo. None of the clips are too egregious but I suppose they do provide circumstantial evidence. #3 is clearly a bad F2 in case anyone doesn't realize, he didn't just move the drop defense away alone, that would have looked pretty bad.

Edit: Oh, and #2 isn't bad imo. He's move commanding the stalkers for what, half a second longer than he should have? He had to stutter step them, if they just stood still and attacked the vikings, the bio army could have caught up
Luolis
Profile Blog Joined May 2012
Finland7170 Posts
July 17 2020 14:22 GMT
#50
On July 17 2020 23:19 Zzzapper wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 17 2020 23:00 SpaceBoar wrote:
On July 17 2020 22:28 Luolis wrote:
Some clips of the game that seem atleast somewhat fishy.

https://clips.twitch.tv/DullClearPistachioBudStar
https://clips.twitch.tv/SuaveWealthyEelShazBotstix
https://clips.twitch.tv/SmellySteamyGuanacoCurseLit


That last clip is really making me wonder. Zest doesn't seem to be much behind and he is still banking ca. 1000 minerals and gas, while not really microing anything. It could be he was just tired of course but it's still surprising that a pro veteran would have such a bad spending skill. I thought after all these years of practice they do it almost automatically without thinking about it.

Zest is the one player where floating a lot of resources should never be a cause for concern. Sure, it mostly happens when he's focused on micro but it's not only then. For a player like him, uncharacteristic micro mistakes are more suspicious imo. None of the clips are too egregious but I suppose they do provide circumstantial evidence. #3 is clearly a bad F2 in case anyone doesn't realize, he didn't just move the drop defense away alone, that would have looked pretty bad.

Edit: Oh, and #2 isn't bad imo. He's move commanding the stalkers for what, half a second longer than he should have? He had to stutter step them, if they just stood still and attacked the vikings, the bio army could have caught up

Fuzer posted the clips above with better explanations. I just posted them cause im a weasel.
pro cheese woman / Its never Sunny in Finland. Perkele / FinnishStarcraftTrivia
Zzzapper
Profile Joined September 2011
1797 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-07-17 14:30:13
July 17 2020 14:29 GMT
#51
On July 17 2020 23:11 Fuzer wrote:
I actually just watched the VODS and to be honest, Zest caliber player shouldn't make that many mistakes, here are couple clips I just made and I explain whats wrong with them:

1st: https://clips.twitch.tv/DullClearPistachioBudStar He has observer and sees 2 medivacs, there are no other things on the map that needs attention. Let me be clear, if you see that happening you don't do anything else than make sure that you kill that medivac, it should be very easy and normal task to do. BUT WHAT Happens is that Zest blinks (shows he sees them), attacks moves the stalkers, DOES SOMETHING else(unselecteed) and surprisingly no vacs get destroyed and on top of that he takes bad fight behind that.

I ended that clip there because I don't think this next one after that is that obvious, but I mention it anyways: The drop that comes to his 3rd after is not scouted, so I can't blame him that he didn't left any units there, but he sees the mines being burrowed and chooses to recall weakened stalker army on top of that nexus... The mines do their job.


It's pretty clear that he deselects his stalkers to move the army at his third to his nat. Doing that rather than just microing the stalkers to defend (and moving the probes away! they didn't have to die like that) is questionable in itself but it's not like he's doing something completely unrelated to the drop defense
Fuzer
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Finland266 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-07-17 14:37:09
July 17 2020 14:31 GMT
#52
On July 17 2020 23:29 Zzzapper wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 17 2020 23:11 Fuzer wrote:
I actually just watched the VODS and to be honest, Zest caliber player shouldn't make that many mistakes, here are couple clips I just made and I explain whats wrong with them:

1st: https://clips.twitch.tv/DullClearPistachioBudStar He has observer and sees 2 medivacs, there are no other things on the map that needs attention. Let me be clear, if you see that happening you don't do anything else than make sure that you kill that medivac, it should be very easy and normal task to do. BUT WHAT Happens is that Zest blinks (shows he sees them), attacks moves the stalkers, DOES SOMETHING else(unselecteed) and surprisingly no vacs get destroyed and on top of that he takes bad fight behind that.

I ended that clip there because I don't think this next one after that is that obvious, but I mention it anyways: The drop that comes to his 3rd after is not scouted, so I can't blame him that he didn't left any units there, but he sees the mines being burrowed and chooses to recall weakened stalker army on top of that nexus... The mines do their job.


It's pretty clear that he deselects his stalkers to move the army at his third to his nat. Doing that rather than just microing the stalkers to defend (and moving the probes away! they didn't have to die like that) is questionable in itself but it's not like he's doing something completely unrelated to the drop defense


You don't get it, there is NOTHING more important to do than destroying that medivac. If you kill the medivac you don't need to take the army. You don't make mistakes on basics.

Obviously we can say mistakes happen, but you need to remember, ZEST is WORLDCLASS player. There are way too many "mistakes" like this on these games.
Zzzapper
Profile Joined September 2011
1797 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-07-17 14:37:55
July 17 2020 14:37 GMT
#53
On July 17 2020 23:31 Fuzer wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 17 2020 23:29 Zzzapper wrote:
On July 17 2020 23:11 Fuzer wrote:
I actually just watched the VODS and to be honest, Zest caliber player shouldn't make that many mistakes, here are couple clips I just made and I explain whats wrong with them:

1st: https://clips.twitch.tv/DullClearPistachioBudStar He has observer and sees 2 medivacs, there are no other things on the map that needs attention. Let me be clear, if you see that happening you don't do anything else than make sure that you kill that medivac, it should be very easy and normal task to do. BUT WHAT Happens is that Zest blinks (shows he sees them), attacks moves the stalkers, DOES SOMETHING else(unselecteed) and surprisingly no vacs get destroyed and on top of that he takes bad fight behind that.

I ended that clip there because I don't think this next one after that is that obvious, but I mention it anyways: The drop that comes to his 3rd after is not scouted, so I can't blame him that he didn't left any units there, but he sees the mines being burrowed and chooses to recall weakened stalker army on top of that nexus... The mines do their job.


It's pretty clear that he deselects his stalkers to move the army at his third to his nat. Doing that rather than just microing the stalkers to defend (and moving the probes away! they didn't have to die like that) is questionable in itself but it's not like he's doing something completely unrelated to the drop defense


You don't get it, there is NOTHING more important to do than destroying that medivac. If you kill the medivac you don't need to take the army. It's the most common thing to do to focus the medivac.

Obviously we can say mistakes happen, but you need to remember, ZEST is WORLDCLASS player. There are way too many "mistakes" like this on these games.

Oh I definitely get that but what you said sounded like he stopped microing stalkers to do something completely unrelated when that's not really the case. He definitely should have attacked the medivac and also stutter stepped so the stalkers didn't get stuck on the minerals like that. And just for the record, there wasn't time to just kill the medivacs, best he could've done was let only 1 or 2 units unload from the first one and maybe kill the second one with 1 or 2 units left
Fuzer
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Finland266 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-07-17 14:49:46
July 17 2020 14:42 GMT
#54
On July 17 2020 23:37 Zzzapper wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 17 2020 23:31 Fuzer wrote:
On July 17 2020 23:29 Zzzapper wrote:
On July 17 2020 23:11 Fuzer wrote:
I actually just watched the VODS and to be honest, Zest caliber player shouldn't make that many mistakes, here are couple clips I just made and I explain whats wrong with them:

1st: https://clips.twitch.tv/DullClearPistachioBudStar He has observer and sees 2 medivacs, there are no other things on the map that needs attention. Let me be clear, if you see that happening you don't do anything else than make sure that you kill that medivac, it should be very easy and normal task to do. BUT WHAT Happens is that Zest blinks (shows he sees them), attacks moves the stalkers, DOES SOMETHING else(unselecteed) and surprisingly no vacs get destroyed and on top of that he takes bad fight behind that.

I ended that clip there because I don't think this next one after that is that obvious, but I mention it anyways: The drop that comes to his 3rd after is not scouted, so I can't blame him that he didn't left any units there, but he sees the mines being burrowed and chooses to recall weakened stalker army on top of that nexus... The mines do their job.


It's pretty clear that he deselects his stalkers to move the army at his third to his nat. Doing that rather than just microing the stalkers to defend (and moving the probes away! they didn't have to die like that) is questionable in itself but it's not like he's doing something completely unrelated to the drop defense


You don't get it, there is NOTHING more important to do than destroying that medivac. If you kill the medivac you don't need to take the army. It's the most common thing to do to focus the medivac.

Obviously we can say mistakes happen, but you need to remember, ZEST is WORLDCLASS player. There are way too many "mistakes" like this on these games.

Oh I definitely get that but what you said sounded like he stopped microing stalkers to do something completely unrelated when that's not really the case. He definitely should have attacked the medivac and also stutter stepped so the stalkers didn't get stuck on the minerals like that. And just for the record, there wasn't time to just kill the medivacs, best he could've done was let only 1 or 2 units unload from the first one and maybe kill the second one with 1 or 2 units left


Lets imagine a situation, you need to lose a game, but you need to lose it so that everyone thinks your opponent just played better:

Would you agree that doing these kind of amateur mistakes would be the best way to do it? So that normal eye (I say that I have played this game enough to find these bizarre plays that shouldn't happen) won't see anything suspicious and just take it that Soul played better, shit happens.

I mean this would be the way I would do it.

Also for the record that would've still been better scenario than this what happened.
Zzzapper
Profile Joined September 2011
1797 Posts
July 17 2020 14:47 GMT
#55
On July 17 2020 23:42 Fuzer wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 17 2020 23:37 Zzzapper wrote:
On July 17 2020 23:31 Fuzer wrote:
On July 17 2020 23:29 Zzzapper wrote:
On July 17 2020 23:11 Fuzer wrote:
I actually just watched the VODS and to be honest, Zest caliber player shouldn't make that many mistakes, here are couple clips I just made and I explain whats wrong with them:

1st: https://clips.twitch.tv/DullClearPistachioBudStar He has observer and sees 2 medivacs, there are no other things on the map that needs attention. Let me be clear, if you see that happening you don't do anything else than make sure that you kill that medivac, it should be very easy and normal task to do. BUT WHAT Happens is that Zest blinks (shows he sees them), attacks moves the stalkers, DOES SOMETHING else(unselecteed) and surprisingly no vacs get destroyed and on top of that he takes bad fight behind that.

I ended that clip there because I don't think this next one after that is that obvious, but I mention it anyways: The drop that comes to his 3rd after is not scouted, so I can't blame him that he didn't left any units there, but he sees the mines being burrowed and chooses to recall weakened stalker army on top of that nexus... The mines do their job.


It's pretty clear that he deselects his stalkers to move the army at his third to his nat. Doing that rather than just microing the stalkers to defend (and moving the probes away! they didn't have to die like that) is questionable in itself but it's not like he's doing something completely unrelated to the drop defense


You don't get it, there is NOTHING more important to do than destroying that medivac. If you kill the medivac you don't need to take the army. It's the most common thing to do to focus the medivac.

Obviously we can say mistakes happen, but you need to remember, ZEST is WORLDCLASS player. There are way too many "mistakes" like this on these games.

Oh I definitely get that but what you said sounded like he stopped microing stalkers to do something completely unrelated when that's not really the case. He definitely should have attacked the medivac and also stutter stepped so the stalkers didn't get stuck on the minerals like that. And just for the record, there wasn't time to just kill the medivacs, best he could've done was let only 1 or 2 units unload from the first one and maybe kill the second one with 1 or 2 units left


Lets imagine a situation, you need to lose a game, but you need to lose it so that you won't get caught:

Would you agree that doing these kind of amateur mistakes would be the best way to do it? So that normal eye (I say that I have played this game enough to find these bizarre plays that shouldn't happen) won't see anything suspicious and just take it that Soul played better, shit happens.

I mean this would be the way I would do it.

Also for the record that would've still been better scenario than this what happened.

I agree that it's suspicious, it's just that it's all circumstantial and I don't think we should assume the absolute worst by default
Anc13nt
Profile Blog Joined October 2017
1557 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-07-17 14:52:00
July 17 2020 14:49 GMT
#56
man sometimes i just want for betting in esports to no longer exist; it causes more trouble than it's worth.

edit: i say it without wanting to put any blame on those who do it because that is their right and it's fun and harmless when it comes to intent. I just don't like that it causes so many unintended consequences.
Charoisaur
Profile Joined August 2014
Germany16063 Posts
July 17 2020 14:53 GMT
#57
Analyzing the game is pointless unless there really is a HUGE mistake "a pro player would never make" like the MKP vs Byul game or that one MacSed game.
When analyzing games with confirmation bias you could say that every other pro game looks "fishy". I see pro players do enormous mistakes all the time
Many of the coolest moments in sc2 happen due to worker harassment
TentativePanda
Profile Joined August 2014
United States800 Posts
July 17 2020 14:58 GMT
#58
On July 17 2020 08:22 geokilla wrote:
Zest basically played with only 2 gases, building up a Gateway army against Terran bio while floating 1K minerals.


I know this is a serious topic but haha that does sound like something Zest would do
Fuzer
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Finland266 Posts
July 17 2020 14:59 GMT
#59
On July 17 2020 23:53 Charoisaur wrote:
Analyzing the game is pointless unless there really is a HUGE mistake "a pro player would never make" like the MKP vs Byul game or that one MacSed game.
When analyzing games with confirmation bias you could say that every other pro game looks "fishy". I see pro players do enormous mistakes all the time


Don't you see that thats the thing here. You don't want anyone to know you didn't want to win, so you make lots and lots of small mistakes. And when those small mistakes gather up it makes a huge pile.

And if you want to have a conversation about the things I brought here, please lets have one.
Charoisaur
Profile Joined August 2014
Germany16063 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-07-17 15:01:22
July 17 2020 15:00 GMT
#60
On July 17 2020 23:59 Fuzer wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 17 2020 23:53 Charoisaur wrote:
Analyzing the game is pointless unless there really is a HUGE mistake "a pro player would never make" like the MKP vs Byul game or that one MacSed game.
When analyzing games with confirmation bias you could say that every other pro game looks "fishy". I see pro players do enormous mistakes all the time


Don't you see that thats the thing here. You don't want anyone to know you didn't want to win, so you make lots and lots of small mistakes. And when those small mistakes gather up it makes a huge pile.

And if you want to have a conversation about the things I brought here, please lets have one.

And what's different about a fixed game where the player made lots and lots of small mistakes compared to the thousands of legit games where the player made lots and lots of small mistakes?
Many of the coolest moments in sc2 happen due to worker harassment
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