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On July 18 2020 01:03 ZigguratOfUr wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2020 00:48 Fuzer wrote:On July 18 2020 00:44 Scarlett` wrote:
Please don't bet on games (:
also mistakes happen like this all the time Fuzer; especially in small online cups Sure they do, I agree with that. But these mistakes + Pinnacle voided bets... I mean its just 1+1 that I would wish to be something else than 2. I mean let me ask you: IF you would have to lose but you had to lose so that you wouldn't get caught, would this be the way you would do it? Small little ones? And even you have to agree some of those are very rookie mistakes taht should never be happening. I mean sure, maybe he was drunk or had hangover... Who knows, maybe someone gave him a pill on bar that made him dizzy and after he bet him to lose. They're bad mistakes that you wouldn't expect from a player from Zest's caliber, but those do happen. Like if you analyzed (to name just one recent series which did *not* have suspicious betting activity) TY vs Bly from the Douyu Cup, you could come up with just as many 'rookie mistakes'.
Totally agreed. But example the adept scout into total fuckup is something you can't explain anyhow and I doubt that there is anything like that on TY vs Bly.
Also I wouldn't even care about this if Pinnacle wouldn't have voided. But because they did I watched the games that do they look suspicous. They do.
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On July 18 2020 01:07 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2020 00:01 Morbidius wrote:On July 17 2020 11:05 RPR_Tempest wrote:
and MarineKing had his SC2 career ended over this. After playing the fishiest game in the history of SC2. The fishiest game must surely be that macsed vs some diamond player game.
MKP played far worse than any diamond in that game. Gold level macro(missing SCV production before building his first supply), silver level decision making and bronze map awareness.
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On July 18 2020 00:39 Fuzer wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2020 00:35 Charoisaur wrote:On July 18 2020 00:25 Fuzer wrote:On July 18 2020 00:13 Charoisaur wrote:On July 18 2020 00:10 Fuzer wrote:On July 18 2020 00:07 Charoisaur wrote:On July 18 2020 00:02 Fuzer wrote:On July 18 2020 00:00 Charoisaur wrote:On July 17 2020 23:59 Fuzer wrote:On July 17 2020 23:53 Charoisaur wrote:
Analyzing the game is pointless unless there really is a HUGE mistake "a pro player would never make" like the MKP vs Byul game or that one MacSed game.
When analyzing games with confirmation bias you could say that every other pro game looks "fishy". I see pro players do enormous mistakes all the time Don't you see that thats the thing here. You don't want anyone to know you didn't want to win, so you make lots and lots of small mistakes. And when those small mistakes gather up it makes a huge pile. And if you want to have a conversation about the things I brought here, please lets have one. And what's different about a fixed game where the player made lots and lots of small mistakes compared to the thousands of legit games where the player made lots and lots of small mistakes? It's pretty easy to spot the difference when player fucks up and when he is trying to make mistakes on purpose that would look normal for normies, if you spend time to find them. As I did here. I mean some of these are (ex. Stalker focusing medivac) equal to football player forgeting how to pass the ball. and still I can probably watch a random GSL group and find at least 1 game that did look more like matchfixing (when analyzing the games with confirmation bias) then this game. So show me one and analyze it and I'll listen. But that doesn't change the fact that what I brought up looks VERY suspicious that you can't rationally explain. I mean its very simple thing, I brought up proof, Pinnacle voided bets (most likely because it had lots of bets, way more than normally) and you say that we can't be objective here? The bets getting voided is somewhat suspicious. Zest losing 0-3 to a player he is favored again is somewhat suspicious. The mistakes he did were not suspicious at all though. I really have to wonder how much sc2 you watch if you think the mistakes Zest did are anything special. I mean the thing is simple: I have played this game more than you have, I'm way better than you are, I see things differently than you do. You don't see the big picture. If you think I'm talking bullshit here, you can go ask any decent player (above master, NA above GM 50) their opinion and ask them to rationally explain what I wrote. I don't think we have to compare dick sizes here but I'm master with all 3 races with a 5.4k MMR peak and over 20k games played. Also I have watched every single non-mirror korean offline tournament game since 2013 so I'd say I know a little bit about the game. I have seen players do worse mistakes than Zest did here so many times that this just doesn't raise any concern for me at all (speaking of the games alone - the voided bets are another story) Nice peak  Here is mine: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BF3ex_3CEAAfPiO?format=jpg&name=large All you do is you talk and talk and talk but you don't explain these things. Example the game 2 adept scout into hellion harras, looks very normal.
Imagine braging about your 2013 peak and saying that you understand it all because of that, you just sound like Sardoche.
I don't think KKoma ever was Grand Master, let alone Challenger, and yet he was a successful coach. It's okay to say to a diamond player that he doesn't get anything in SC2 but Charoisaur is quite legit.
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On July 18 2020 00:51 geokilla wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2020 00:27 greenturtle23 wrote:
Are they voiding bets after the match has taken place? If so why would you ever bet with them? Anytime here is more money on the winning side they can cancel due to "suspicious activity". All bets related to the match were voided. Show nested quote +On July 18 2020 00:34 Ej_ wrote:On July 18 2020 00:27 greenturtle23 wrote:
Are they voiding bets after the match has taken place? If so why would you ever bet with them? Anytime here is more money on the winning side they can cancel due to "suspicious activity". Pinnacle never voids bets unwarranted and that is why people bet there in the first place. I hope i have explained this monstrous logical problem. This. It's not like I'm on some sketchy site.
If I understand correctly, players bet against the site. In an ideal situation for the site, 50% of the money would be on player A, 50% would be on player B, and the house would just win the fee money regardless of who wins. But if the line is unbalanced, 90% of the money could be put on player A. Then if player A wins the site loses.
It seems to me if there is suspicious activity, the bets should be voided before the match occurs. Otherwise, the site could void bets if they lost on an unbalanced line, but not void them if they won an unbalanced line.
I am not saying Pinnacle is doing anything sketchy, I am saying the system relies on Pinnacle acting in good faith. I think a better system would be that bets get voided before the match takes place, not after.
I should not have said "why would you ever bet with them", because I would also probably bet with them. I just think voiding matches after they have taken place is not great.
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On July 18 2020 01:29 DieuCure wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2020 00:39 Fuzer wrote:On July 18 2020 00:35 Charoisaur wrote:On July 18 2020 00:25 Fuzer wrote:On July 18 2020 00:13 Charoisaur wrote:On July 18 2020 00:10 Fuzer wrote:On July 18 2020 00:07 Charoisaur wrote:On July 18 2020 00:02 Fuzer wrote:On July 18 2020 00:00 Charoisaur wrote:On July 17 2020 23:59 Fuzer wrote:
[quote]
Don't you see that thats the thing here. You don't want anyone to know you didn't want to win, so you make lots and lots of small mistakes. And when those small mistakes gather up it makes a huge pile.
And if you want to have a conversation about the things I brought here, please lets have one. And what's different about a fixed game where the player made lots and lots of small mistakes compared to the thousands of legit games where the player made lots and lots of small mistakes? It's pretty easy to spot the difference when player fucks up and when he is trying to make mistakes on purpose that would look normal for normies, if you spend time to find them. As I did here. I mean some of these are (ex. Stalker focusing medivac) equal to football player forgeting how to pass the ball. and still I can probably watch a random GSL group and find at least 1 game that did look more like matchfixing (when analyzing the games with confirmation bias) then this game. So show me one and analyze it and I'll listen. But that doesn't change the fact that what I brought up looks VERY suspicious that you can't rationally explain. I mean its very simple thing, I brought up proof, Pinnacle voided bets (most likely because it had lots of bets, way more than normally) and you say that we can't be objective here? The bets getting voided is somewhat suspicious. Zest losing 0-3 to a player he is favored again is somewhat suspicious. The mistakes he did were not suspicious at all though. I really have to wonder how much sc2 you watch if you think the mistakes Zest did are anything special. I mean the thing is simple: I have played this game more than you have, I'm way better than you are, I see things differently than you do. You don't see the big picture. If you think I'm talking bullshit here, you can go ask any decent player (above master, NA above GM 50) their opinion and ask them to rationally explain what I wrote. I don't think we have to compare dick sizes here but I'm master with all 3 races with a 5.4k MMR peak and over 20k games played. Also I have watched every single non-mirror korean offline tournament game since 2013 so I'd say I know a little bit about the game. I have seen players do worse mistakes than Zest did here so many times that this just doesn't raise any concern for me at all (speaking of the games alone - the voided bets are another story) Nice peak Here is mine: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BF3ex_3CEAAfPiO?format=jpg&name=large All you do is you talk and talk and talk but you don't explain these things. Example the game 2 adept scout into hellion harras, looks very normal. Imagine braging about your 2013 peak and saying that you understand it all because of that, you just sound like Sardoche. I don't think KKoma ever was Grand Master, let alone Challenger, and yet he was a successful coach. It's okay to say to a diamond player that he doesn't get anything in SC2 but Charoisaur is quite legit.
Still the difference from 2013 peak performance to this day 5400 peak seems to be pretty big if the 5400 doesn't see the mistakes as big gamechanging mistakes lol. I mean what you want me to tell him when hes obvious just not experienced enough to have talk about this topic regarding the effect oft the mistakes I showd? I've waited for rational explanation for these topics but none have delivered.
Also I'm not that I'm good at this game anymore, I'm old and bad... But still these old eyes see the obvious bugs in the gameplay that you cant deny with logic.
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On July 18 2020 01:32 greenturtle23 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2020 00:51 geokilla wrote:On July 18 2020 00:27 greenturtle23 wrote:
Are they voiding bets after the match has taken place? If so why would you ever bet with them? Anytime here is more money on the winning side they can cancel due to "suspicious activity". All bets related to the match were voided. On July 18 2020 00:34 Ej_ wrote:On July 18 2020 00:27 greenturtle23 wrote:
Are they voiding bets after the match has taken place? If so why would you ever bet with them? Anytime here is more money on the winning side they can cancel due to "suspicious activity". Pinnacle never voids bets unwarranted and that is why people bet there in the first place. I hope i have explained this monstrous logical problem. This. It's not like I'm on some sketchy site. If I understand correctly, players bet against the site. In an ideal situation for the site, 50% of the money would be on player A, 50% would be on player B, and the house would just win the fee money regardless of who wins. But if the line is unbalanced, 90% of the money could be put on player A. Then if player A wins the site loses. It seems to me if there is suspicious activity, the bets should be voided before the match occurs. Otherwise, the site could void bets if they lost on an unbalanced line, but not void them if they won an unbalanced line. I am not saying Pinnacle is doing anything sketchy, I am saying the system relies on Pinnacle acting in good faith. I think a better system would be that bets get voided before the match takes place, not after. I should not have said "why would you ever bet with them", because I would also probably bet with them. I just think voiding matches after they have taken place is not great.
Lets say that Fuzer vs Luolis is on betting site. Fuzer has 1.92 odds and Luolis has 1.92. Then you come and you put money on Luolis. What happens to the odds after? Well Fuzer odds goes above and Luolis below so after your bet it odds would be something like Fuzer 2.05 Luolis 1.84.
This way it's really hard for house to lose money.
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On July 18 2020 01:43 Fuzer wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2020 01:29 DieuCure wrote:On July 18 2020 00:39 Fuzer wrote:On July 18 2020 00:35 Charoisaur wrote:On July 18 2020 00:25 Fuzer wrote:On July 18 2020 00:13 Charoisaur wrote:On July 18 2020 00:10 Fuzer wrote:On July 18 2020 00:07 Charoisaur wrote:On July 18 2020 00:02 Fuzer wrote:On July 18 2020 00:00 Charoisaur wrote:
[quote]
And what's different about a fixed game where the player made lots and lots of small mistakes compared to the thousands of legit games where the player made lots and lots of small mistakes? It's pretty easy to spot the difference when player fucks up and when he is trying to make mistakes on purpose that would look normal for normies, if you spend time to find them. As I did here. I mean some of these are (ex. Stalker focusing medivac) equal to football player forgeting how to pass the ball. and still I can probably watch a random GSL group and find at least 1 game that did look more like matchfixing (when analyzing the games with confirmation bias) then this game. So show me one and analyze it and I'll listen. But that doesn't change the fact that what I brought up looks VERY suspicious that you can't rationally explain. I mean its very simple thing, I brought up proof, Pinnacle voided bets (most likely because it had lots of bets, way more than normally) and you say that we can't be objective here? The bets getting voided is somewhat suspicious. Zest losing 0-3 to a player he is favored again is somewhat suspicious. The mistakes he did were not suspicious at all though. I really have to wonder how much sc2 you watch if you think the mistakes Zest did are anything special. I mean the thing is simple: I have played this game more than you have, I'm way better than you are, I see things differently than you do. You don't see the big picture. If you think I'm talking bullshit here, you can go ask any decent player (above master, NA above GM 50) their opinion and ask them to rationally explain what I wrote. I don't think we have to compare dick sizes here but I'm master with all 3 races with a 5.4k MMR peak and over 20k games played. Also I have watched every single non-mirror korean offline tournament game since 2013 so I'd say I know a little bit about the game. I have seen players do worse mistakes than Zest did here so many times that this just doesn't raise any concern for me at all (speaking of the games alone - the voided bets are another story) Nice peak Here is mine: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BF3ex_3CEAAfPiO?format=jpg&name=large All you do is you talk and talk and talk but you don't explain these things. Example the game 2 adept scout into hellion harras, looks very normal. Imagine braging about your 2013 peak and saying that you understand it all because of that, you just sound like Sardoche. I don't think KKoma ever was Grand Master, let alone Challenger, and yet he was a successful coach. It's okay to say to a diamond player that he doesn't get anything in SC2 but Charoisaur is quite legit. Still the difference from 2013 peak performance to this day 5400 peak seems to be pretty big if the 5400 doesn't see the mistakes as big gamechanging mistakes lol. I mean what you want me to tell him when hes obvious just not experienced enough to have talk about this topic regarding the effect oft the mistakes I showd? I've waited for rational explanation for these topics but none have delivered. Also I'm not that I'm good at this game anymore, I'm old and bad... But still these old eyes see the obvious bugs in the gameplay that you cant deny with logic.
Yes so you had a superior level in 2013, now lower, and you think the "experience" of another patch is still relevant and more than an actual high master watching a lot of pro games ? Delu.
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On July 18 2020 01:50 DieuCure wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2020 01:43 Fuzer wrote:On July 18 2020 01:29 DieuCure wrote:On July 18 2020 00:39 Fuzer wrote:On July 18 2020 00:35 Charoisaur wrote:On July 18 2020 00:25 Fuzer wrote:On July 18 2020 00:13 Charoisaur wrote:On July 18 2020 00:10 Fuzer wrote:On July 18 2020 00:07 Charoisaur wrote:On July 18 2020 00:02 Fuzer wrote:
[quote]
It's pretty easy to spot the difference when player fucks up and when he is trying to make mistakes on purpose that would look normal for normies, if you spend time to find them. As I did here. I mean some of these are (ex. Stalker focusing medivac) equal to football player forgeting how to pass the ball. and still I can probably watch a random GSL group and find at least 1 game that did look more like matchfixing (when analyzing the games with confirmation bias) then this game. So show me one and analyze it and I'll listen. But that doesn't change the fact that what I brought up looks VERY suspicious that you can't rationally explain. I mean its very simple thing, I brought up proof, Pinnacle voided bets (most likely because it had lots of bets, way more than normally) and you say that we can't be objective here? The bets getting voided is somewhat suspicious. Zest losing 0-3 to a player he is favored again is somewhat suspicious. The mistakes he did were not suspicious at all though. I really have to wonder how much sc2 you watch if you think the mistakes Zest did are anything special. I mean the thing is simple: I have played this game more than you have, I'm way better than you are, I see things differently than you do. You don't see the big picture. If you think I'm talking bullshit here, you can go ask any decent player (above master, NA above GM 50) their opinion and ask them to rationally explain what I wrote. I don't think we have to compare dick sizes here but I'm master with all 3 races with a 5.4k MMR peak and over 20k games played. Also I have watched every single non-mirror korean offline tournament game since 2013 so I'd say I know a little bit about the game. I have seen players do worse mistakes than Zest did here so many times that this just doesn't raise any concern for me at all (speaking of the games alone - the voided bets are another story) Nice peak Here is mine: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BF3ex_3CEAAfPiO?format=jpg&name=large All you do is you talk and talk and talk but you don't explain these things. Example the game 2 adept scout into hellion harras, looks very normal. Imagine braging about your 2013 peak and saying that you understand it all because of that, you just sound like Sardoche. I don't think KKoma ever was Grand Master, let alone Challenger, and yet he was a successful coach. It's okay to say to a diamond player that he doesn't get anything in SC2 but Charoisaur is quite legit. Still the difference from 2013 peak performance to this day 5400 peak seems to be pretty big if the 5400 doesn't see the mistakes as big gamechanging mistakes lol. I mean what you want me to tell him when hes obvious just not experienced enough to have talk about this topic regarding the effect oft the mistakes I showd? I've waited for rational explanation for these topics but none have delivered. Also I'm not that I'm good at this game anymore, I'm old and bad... But still these old eyes see the obvious bugs in the gameplay that you cant deny with logic. Yes so you had a superior level in 2013, now lower, and you think the "experience" of another patch is still relevant and more than an actual high master watching a lot of pro games ? Delu.
Well, fuzer is still on a top 100 gm level on EU and also watches this game, so i wouldn't say that his experience should be completely ignored...
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On July 18 2020 00:06 1gragequit wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2020 23:17 stilt wrote:
The MKP vs byul's case and other weird stuffs like this weren't voided before right ? It sounds quiet fishy, I think time to time some players resort to these usages just because sometimes, it might be hard to decline easy money. - MKP vs Byul (Proleague) was void and because it was such an unrealistic throw it also gained additional attention (e.g. some pros calling it out as obvious match-fixing). I think this is the most notorious case of 'no proof but looks extremely fishy'. - Byul vs Terror (Proleague) was void as a lot of money was on Terror to win BUT Byul won. This is important to note as it bucks the trend of void bet --> very suspicious loss. - Innovation vs. Super in GSL - 1st map had extreme betting that Inno went on to lose (but won series 2-1). - San vs Dark (Proleague) - Soulkey vs Creator I've bolded the names of the alleged match-fixer as I think it is very important to distinguish who the alleged match-fixer is, and who is simply the unlucky opponent. I'm not going to throw accusations around - of course this is all alleged and unproven but I strongly believe there are some names above that got extremely lucky to escape justice. I would recommend reading the liquipedia page for an objective look at the 2015 scandal:  2015 Match-Fixing ScandalEdit to add: IMO, analysing the match in question is a waste of time: 1) Zest CAN play very poorly. He's a very on/off player. 2) Hindsight/confirmation bias makes any objective observation impossible. 3) It relies too much on opinion. However, the void bets...this is done for a reason. This isn't just one person that took a big punt on soul winning. Their software is way more sophisticated than that and I am sure they limit voiding bets unless absolutely necessary.
Thanks for the info and my bad, I totally forgot it had been voided.
Well, I guess this case won't lead anywhere regardless of what happened.
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On July 18 2020 01:50 DieuCure wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2020 01:43 Fuzer wrote:On July 18 2020 01:29 DieuCure wrote:On July 18 2020 00:39 Fuzer wrote:On July 18 2020 00:35 Charoisaur wrote:On July 18 2020 00:25 Fuzer wrote:On July 18 2020 00:13 Charoisaur wrote:On July 18 2020 00:10 Fuzer wrote:On July 18 2020 00:07 Charoisaur wrote:On July 18 2020 00:02 Fuzer wrote:
[quote]
It's pretty easy to spot the difference when player fucks up and when he is trying to make mistakes on purpose that would look normal for normies, if you spend time to find them. As I did here. I mean some of these are (ex. Stalker focusing medivac) equal to football player forgeting how to pass the ball. and still I can probably watch a random GSL group and find at least 1 game that did look more like matchfixing (when analyzing the games with confirmation bias) then this game. So show me one and analyze it and I'll listen. But that doesn't change the fact that what I brought up looks VERY suspicious that you can't rationally explain. I mean its very simple thing, I brought up proof, Pinnacle voided bets (most likely because it had lots of bets, way more than normally) and you say that we can't be objective here? The bets getting voided is somewhat suspicious. Zest losing 0-3 to a player he is favored again is somewhat suspicious. The mistakes he did were not suspicious at all though. I really have to wonder how much sc2 you watch if you think the mistakes Zest did are anything special. I mean the thing is simple: I have played this game more than you have, I'm way better than you are, I see things differently than you do. You don't see the big picture. If you think I'm talking bullshit here, you can go ask any decent player (above master, NA above GM 50) their opinion and ask them to rationally explain what I wrote. I don't think we have to compare dick sizes here but I'm master with all 3 races with a 5.4k MMR peak and over 20k games played. Also I have watched every single non-mirror korean offline tournament game since 2013 so I'd say I know a little bit about the game. I have seen players do worse mistakes than Zest did here so many times that this just doesn't raise any concern for me at all (speaking of the games alone - the voided bets are another story) Nice peak Here is mine: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BF3ex_3CEAAfPiO?format=jpg&name=large All you do is you talk and talk and talk but you don't explain these things. Example the game 2 adept scout into hellion harras, looks very normal. Imagine braging about your 2013 peak and saying that you understand it all because of that, you just sound like Sardoche. I don't think KKoma ever was Grand Master, let alone Challenger, and yet he was a successful coach. It's okay to say to a diamond player that he doesn't get anything in SC2 but Charoisaur is quite legit. Still the difference from 2013 peak performance to this day 5400 peak seems to be pretty big if the 5400 doesn't see the mistakes as big gamechanging mistakes lol. I mean what you want me to tell him when hes obvious just not experienced enough to have talk about this topic regarding the effect oft the mistakes I showd? I've waited for rational explanation for these topics but none have delivered. Also I'm not that I'm good at this game anymore, I'm old and bad... But still these old eyes see the obvious bugs in the gameplay that you cant deny with logic. Yes so you had a superior level in 2013, now lower, and you think the "experience" of another patch is still relevant and more than an actual high master watching a lot of pro games ? Delu.
I mean the thing is very simple, I posted the facts that I think are the facts. We can have conversation about the so called facts and you can tell me why I'm wrong. But looks like you are only defending someone because "someone told someone else that hes not experienced enough to talk abou the topic", so this conversation aint leadint anywhere.
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What i wanted to say is that your authority argument (from 2013) shouldn't be determinative.
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On July 18 2020 02:18 DieuCure wrote:
What i wanted to say is that your authority argument (from 2013) shouldn't be determinative.
Was it about that? "Cmon dude I know what I'm talking about, I have peaked 5400, I'm not bad", which has been the only argument why I'm wrong.
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On July 18 2020 01:07 Fuzer wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2020 01:03 ZigguratOfUr wrote:On July 18 2020 00:48 Fuzer wrote:On July 18 2020 00:44 Scarlett` wrote:
Please don't bet on games (:
also mistakes happen like this all the time Fuzer; especially in small online cups Sure they do, I agree with that. But these mistakes + Pinnacle voided bets... I mean its just 1+1 that I would wish to be something else than 2. I mean let me ask you: IF you would have to lose but you had to lose so that you wouldn't get caught, would this be the way you would do it? Small little ones? And even you have to agree some of those are very rookie mistakes taht should never be happening. I mean sure, maybe he was drunk or had hangover... Who knows, maybe someone gave him a pill on bar that made him dizzy and after he bet him to lose. They're bad mistakes that you wouldn't expect from a player from Zest's caliber, but those do happen. Like if you analyzed (to name just one recent series which did *not* have suspicious betting activity) TY vs Bly from the Douyu Cup, you could come up with just as many 'rookie mistakes'. Totally agreed. But example the adept scout into total fuckup is something you can't explain anyhow and I doubt that there is anything like that on TY vs Bly. Also I wouldn't even care about this if Pinnacle wouldn't have voided. But because they did I watched the games that do they look suspicous. They do.
In TY vs Bly, TY salvaged his bunker against a 1 base proxy hatch ravager all-in, and lost a game after having a 50 supply lead, so idk if Zest vs souL would be considered (in a vacuum) to be the game with the larger number of mess-ups. Though of course we aren't in a vacuum, and we're looking at this through the lens of the bets from Zest vs souL having been voided.
I guess my point would be that if the bets had not been voided, people wouldn't consider this game suspicious, since while mistakes like this from top players are relatively uncommon, they aren't so rare as to be of themselves suspicious.
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On July 18 2020 02:27 ZigguratOfUr wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2020 01:07 Fuzer wrote:On July 18 2020 01:03 ZigguratOfUr wrote:On July 18 2020 00:48 Fuzer wrote:On July 18 2020 00:44 Scarlett` wrote:
Please don't bet on games (:
also mistakes happen like this all the time Fuzer; especially in small online cups Sure they do, I agree with that. But these mistakes + Pinnacle voided bets... I mean its just 1+1 that I would wish to be something else than 2. I mean let me ask you: IF you would have to lose but you had to lose so that you wouldn't get caught, would this be the way you would do it? Small little ones? And even you have to agree some of those are very rookie mistakes taht should never be happening. I mean sure, maybe he was drunk or had hangover... Who knows, maybe someone gave him a pill on bar that made him dizzy and after he bet him to lose. They're bad mistakes that you wouldn't expect from a player from Zest's caliber, but those do happen. Like if you analyzed (to name just one recent series which did *not* have suspicious betting activity) TY vs Bly from the Douyu Cup, you could come up with just as many 'rookie mistakes'. Totally agreed. But example the adept scout into total fuckup is something you can't explain anyhow and I doubt that there is anything like that on TY vs Bly. Also I wouldn't even care about this if Pinnacle wouldn't have voided. But because they did I watched the games that do they look suspicous. They do. In TY vs Bly, TY salvaged his bunker against a 1 base proxy hatch ravager all-in, and lost a game after having a 50 supply lead, so idk if Zest vs souL would be considered (in a vacuum) to be the game with the larger number of mess-ups. Though of course we aren't in a vacuum, and we're looking at this through the lens of the bets from Zest vs souL having been voided. I guess my point would be that if the bets had not been voided, people wouldn't consider this game suspicious, since while mistakes like this from top players are relatively uncommon, they aren't so rare as to be of themselves suspicious.
I watched the VOD ( https://www.twitch.tv/videos/677396348?t=2h37m47s ) Which map you refer?
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On July 18 2020 02:48 Fuzer wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2020 02:27 ZigguratOfUr wrote:On July 18 2020 01:07 Fuzer wrote:On July 18 2020 01:03 ZigguratOfUr wrote:On July 18 2020 00:48 Fuzer wrote:On July 18 2020 00:44 Scarlett` wrote:
Please don't bet on games (:
also mistakes happen like this all the time Fuzer; especially in small online cups Sure they do, I agree with that. But these mistakes + Pinnacle voided bets... I mean its just 1+1 that I would wish to be something else than 2. I mean let me ask you: IF you would have to lose but you had to lose so that you wouldn't get caught, would this be the way you would do it? Small little ones? And even you have to agree some of those are very rookie mistakes taht should never be happening. I mean sure, maybe he was drunk or had hangover... Who knows, maybe someone gave him a pill on bar that made him dizzy and after he bet him to lose. They're bad mistakes that you wouldn't expect from a player from Zest's caliber, but those do happen. Like if you analyzed (to name just one recent series which did *not* have suspicious betting activity) TY vs Bly from the Douyu Cup, you could come up with just as many 'rookie mistakes'. Totally agreed. But example the adept scout into total fuckup is something you can't explain anyhow and I doubt that there is anything like that on TY vs Bly. Also I wouldn't even care about this if Pinnacle wouldn't have voided. But because they did I watched the games that do they look suspicous. They do. In TY vs Bly, TY salvaged his bunker against a 1 base proxy hatch ravager all-in, and lost a game after having a 50 supply lead, so idk if Zest vs souL would be considered (in a vacuum) to be the game with the larger number of mess-ups. Though of course we aren't in a vacuum, and we're looking at this through the lens of the bets from Zest vs souL having been voided. I guess my point would be that if the bets had not been voided, people wouldn't consider this game suspicious, since while mistakes like this from top players are relatively uncommon, they aren't so rare as to be of themselves suspicious. I watched the VOD ( https://www.twitch.tv/videos/677396348?t=2h37m47s ) Which map you refer?
Game 1 for the bunker cancel and misposition, and game 3 for throwing the lead.
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On July 18 2020 01:43 Fuzer wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2020 01:29 DieuCure wrote:On July 18 2020 00:39 Fuzer wrote:On July 18 2020 00:35 Charoisaur wrote:On July 18 2020 00:25 Fuzer wrote:On July 18 2020 00:13 Charoisaur wrote:On July 18 2020 00:10 Fuzer wrote:On July 18 2020 00:07 Charoisaur wrote:On July 18 2020 00:02 Fuzer wrote:On July 18 2020 00:00 Charoisaur wrote:
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And what's different about a fixed game where the player made lots and lots of small mistakes compared to the thousands of legit games where the player made lots and lots of small mistakes? It's pretty easy to spot the difference when player fucks up and when he is trying to make mistakes on purpose that would look normal for normies, if you spend time to find them. As I did here. I mean some of these are (ex. Stalker focusing medivac) equal to football player forgeting how to pass the ball. and still I can probably watch a random GSL group and find at least 1 game that did look more like matchfixing (when analyzing the games with confirmation bias) then this game. So show me one and analyze it and I'll listen. But that doesn't change the fact that what I brought up looks VERY suspicious that you can't rationally explain. I mean its very simple thing, I brought up proof, Pinnacle voided bets (most likely because it had lots of bets, way more than normally) and you say that we can't be objective here? The bets getting voided is somewhat suspicious. Zest losing 0-3 to a player he is favored again is somewhat suspicious. The mistakes he did were not suspicious at all though. I really have to wonder how much sc2 you watch if you think the mistakes Zest did are anything special. I mean the thing is simple: I have played this game more than you have, I'm way better than you are, I see things differently than you do. You don't see the big picture. If you think I'm talking bullshit here, you can go ask any decent player (above master, NA above GM 50) their opinion and ask them to rationally explain what I wrote. I don't think we have to compare dick sizes here but I'm master with all 3 races with a 5.4k MMR peak and over 20k games played. Also I have watched every single non-mirror korean offline tournament game since 2013 so I'd say I know a little bit about the game. I have seen players do worse mistakes than Zest did here so many times that this just doesn't raise any concern for me at all (speaking of the games alone - the voided bets are another story) Nice peak Here is mine: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BF3ex_3CEAAfPiO?format=jpg&name=large All you do is you talk and talk and talk but you don't explain these things. Example the game 2 adept scout into hellion harras, looks very normal. Imagine braging about your 2013 peak and saying that you understand it all because of that, you just sound like Sardoche. I don't think KKoma ever was Grand Master, let alone Challenger, and yet he was a successful coach. It's okay to say to a diamond player that he doesn't get anything in SC2 but Charoisaur is quite legit. Still the difference from 2013 peak performance to this day 5400 peak seems to be pretty big if the 5400 doesn't see the mistakes as big gamechanging mistakes lol. I mean what you want me to tell him when hes obvious just not experienced enough to have talk about this topic regarding the effect oft the mistakes I showd? I've waited for rational explanation for these topics but none have delivered. Also I'm not that I'm good at this game anymore, I'm old and bad... But still these old eyes see the obvious bugs in the gameplay that you cant deny with logic.
nowhere did I say the mistakes weren't big game changing mistakes lol.
Of course they were but those happen every other game even at the pro level.
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I mean people are overestimating how "extremely rare" this is. Just searching "bet canceled due to suspicious activity" gives me a thread on sportsbookreview about Pinnacle where tons of bettors (who mainly bet on small (e) sport leagues) give their experience with pinnacle and voiding their bets with this reasoning.
There are people in that thread who every year get 10-15 of their bets canceled due to this exact reasoning. Just like other people stated they prob do it when larger amounts of money are being bet on underdogs who then win in either a convincing or just fishy matter. Especially in sc2 and other smaller e-sports 500-1500 euro bets are a decent % of the total amount bet on some starcraft matches, especially in these small tournaments where on some matches you only have a few minutes to bet on before they start.
I would say in only a extremely small amount of these cases fixing is involved, most of the time however its just fishy and pinnacle has to make the decision to void bets and probably start some research (I hope). So ye I understand your concern if its the first time you saw this, but if you bet a lot on smaller (esports) it just happens here and there.
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Northern Ireland23337 Posts
On July 18 2020 03:17 Charoisaur wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2020 01:43 Fuzer wrote:On July 18 2020 01:29 DieuCure wrote:On July 18 2020 00:39 Fuzer wrote:On July 18 2020 00:35 Charoisaur wrote:On July 18 2020 00:25 Fuzer wrote:On July 18 2020 00:13 Charoisaur wrote:On July 18 2020 00:10 Fuzer wrote:On July 18 2020 00:07 Charoisaur wrote:On July 18 2020 00:02 Fuzer wrote:
[quote]
It's pretty easy to spot the difference when player fucks up and when he is trying to make mistakes on purpose that would look normal for normies, if you spend time to find them. As I did here. I mean some of these are (ex. Stalker focusing medivac) equal to football player forgeting how to pass the ball. and still I can probably watch a random GSL group and find at least 1 game that did look more like matchfixing (when analyzing the games with confirmation bias) then this game. So show me one and analyze it and I'll listen. But that doesn't change the fact that what I brought up looks VERY suspicious that you can't rationally explain. I mean its very simple thing, I brought up proof, Pinnacle voided bets (most likely because it had lots of bets, way more than normally) and you say that we can't be objective here? The bets getting voided is somewhat suspicious. Zest losing 0-3 to a player he is favored again is somewhat suspicious. The mistakes he did were not suspicious at all though. I really have to wonder how much sc2 you watch if you think the mistakes Zest did are anything special. I mean the thing is simple: I have played this game more than you have, I'm way better than you are, I see things differently than you do. You don't see the big picture. If you think I'm talking bullshit here, you can go ask any decent player (above master, NA above GM 50) their opinion and ask them to rationally explain what I wrote. I don't think we have to compare dick sizes here but I'm master with all 3 races with a 5.4k MMR peak and over 20k games played. Also I have watched every single non-mirror korean offline tournament game since 2013 so I'd say I know a little bit about the game. I have seen players do worse mistakes than Zest did here so many times that this just doesn't raise any concern for me at all (speaking of the games alone - the voided bets are another story) Nice peak Here is mine: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BF3ex_3CEAAfPiO?format=jpg&name=large All you do is you talk and talk and talk but you don't explain these things. Example the game 2 adept scout into hellion harras, looks very normal. Imagine braging about your 2013 peak and saying that you understand it all because of that, you just sound like Sardoche. I don't think KKoma ever was Grand Master, let alone Challenger, and yet he was a successful coach. It's okay to say to a diamond player that he doesn't get anything in SC2 but Charoisaur is quite legit. Still the difference from 2013 peak performance to this day 5400 peak seems to be pretty big if the 5400 doesn't see the mistakes as big gamechanging mistakes lol. I mean what you want me to tell him when hes obvious just not experienced enough to have talk about this topic regarding the effect oft the mistakes I showd? I've waited for rational explanation for these topics but none have delivered. Also I'm not that I'm good at this game anymore, I'm old and bad... But still these old eyes see the obvious bugs in the gameplay that you cant deny with logic. nowhere did I say the mistakes weren't big game changing mistakes lol. Of course they were but those happen every other game even at the pro level.
Indeed, Zest playing bafflingly poorly for a player of his calibre isn’t really in question, more that players make baffling mistakes all the time.
There are few games more demanding with so many small stakes online tournaments going, if we apply the lens to all sorts of series we’ll see things that look suspicious.
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Zest floated over 3K minerals at a HomeStory Cup before and died with 3K minerals in the bank. Zest always floats minerals, he just isn’t the greatest macro player.
Please note that I am not defending Zest in this particular betting situation and series against Soul. I’m just saying that Zest floating minerals and resources is nothing new.
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On July 17 2020 23:00 SpaceBoar wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2020 22:28 Luolis wrote:Some clips of the game that seem atleast somewhat fishy. That last clip is really making me wonder. Zest doesn't seem to be much behind and he is still banking ca. 1000 minerals and gas, while not really microing anything. It could be he was just tired of course but it's still surprising that a pro veteran would have such a bad spending skill. I thought after all these years of practice they do it almost automatically without thinking about it.
Again, why are some people that are suspicious of Zest so unaware of Zest’s playing style? Zest died with over 3K minerals in the bank at Homestory Cup before, 1K minerals in the bank is nothing for Zest.
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EPT
