|
I've been betting on SC2 lately and every so often, some of my bets will get voided and refunded due to abnormal and suspicious betting activity. Does this mean the bookies are suspecting of match fixing? I don't know. But I want to open up a thread for discussion on this and to track it. I already got the OK from Waxangel:
Original Message From Waxangel: well I'm always on the side of more information, so as long as you have the proper receipts I'd be good with it Show nested quote +Original Message From geokilla:
Hey Wax. I've been betting on SC2 lately and Pinnacle just voided and refunded my bet. They reviewed it for about 26 hour and it looks like they refunded it due to suspected match fixing. Should I post about it or just leave it?
Anyways, the most recent occurrence happened during Crate Drop Invitational, between souL and Zest. I watched the games live and souL destroyed Zest 3-0. This is surprising but what's more surprising is how Zest played the matches. He was favoured to win and rightfully so, but for the first two games, Zest basically played with only 2 gases, building up a Gateway army against Terran bio while floating 1K minerals. Game 3 was a more standard PvT in which more gases were taken, building up a more standard PvT army, but it wasn't enough to win against souL. 26 hours later, Pinnacle voided the bet due to abnormal and suspicious betting activity.
Right now, I'm waiting for Pinnacle to settle TY vs PartinG of Dreamhack Masters Summer finals. I took over 2.5 maps and I think they're going to void the bet again. Weird thing is the line was only open for like two to 3 minutes.
|
It would help if you had odds movement data, but unfortunately Pinnacle doesn't release this publicly, so it is difficult for people to obtain.
It's worth noting that when MacSed was accused of match fixing last year, Pinnacle refused to void that bet. I am not sure what their criteria is for that sort of stuff, but for that MacSed bet the odds swung wildly prior to the match and they still let it go through.
|
Is there a place where a record of voided Pinnacle bets are listed? While Pinnacle doesn't void bets that frequently it does happen somewhat regularly across a variety of sports/esports, so having that information would be useful.
|
Not surprising to me but very sad, the voided bets due to suspicious activity doesn't have to be matchifixing but it its the most likely explanation. The fact is the bets were likely large and very much in favor of soul to such an extent it was judged very unlikely to be a natural occurrence.
If matchfixing got to the stars of SC2 in the age of teams being there to help protect and monitors players chances are the disbanding of the proleague teams made it worse since players got more isolated and open for threats/manipulation. (Prime actually pressuring their players into it was an exception obviously).
This just made me think, ofc Serral and Maru only plays in the tournaments with the big money, since no one would matchfix for a loss there. (its a joke, not serious)
|
Canada8989 Posts
I remember someone on reddit talking about Zest games getting voided by Pinnacle a few times, I'll try to see if I can dig it out.
Edit: I should add there were no proof or link with it as far as I remember
Re-edit: Found the thread but the original poster deleted his post...
|
On July 17 2020 08:41 Shuffleblade wrote:
Not surprising to me but very sad, the voided bets due to suspicious activity doesn't have to be matchifixing but it its the most likely explanation. The fact is the bets were likely large and very much in favor of soul to such an extent it was judged very unlikely to be a natural occurrence.
If matchfixing got to the stars of SC2 in the age of teams being there to help protect and monitors players chances are the disbanding of the proleague teams made it worse since players got more isolated and open for threats/manipulation. (Prime actually pressuring their players into it was an exception obviously).
This just made me think, ofc Serral and Maru only plays in the tournaments with the big money, since no one would matchfix for a loss there. (its a joke, not serious)
Would it take a large bet to move the odds significantly? The sc2 betting scene isn't exactly enormous.
Additionally while matchfixing is always theory number 1, there's other possibilities like insider information.
|
Canada8989 Posts
On July 17 2020 08:52 ZigguratOfUr wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2020 08:41 Shuffleblade wrote:
Not surprising to me but very sad, the voided bets due to suspicious activity doesn't have to be matchifixing but it its the most likely explanation. The fact is the bets were likely large and very much in favor of soul to such an extent it was judged very unlikely to be a natural occurrence.
If matchfixing got to the stars of SC2 in the age of teams being there to help protect and monitors players chances are the disbanding of the proleague teams made it worse since players got more isolated and open for threats/manipulation. (Prime actually pressuring their players into it was an exception obviously).
This just made me think, ofc Serral and Maru only plays in the tournaments with the big money, since no one would matchfix for a loss there. (its a joke, not serious) Would it take a large bet to move the odds significantly? The sc2 betting scene isn't exactly enormous. Additionally while matchfixing is always theory number 1, there's other possibilities like insider information.
Yep, could just be the return of online stream-delay cheating (aren't there a few tournament cast from replay even?)
|
I hope we can see the betting lines because that might be a better tell. The issue with Zest is he floats in MANY of his games. Dude would just micro his heart out while going up to 2k mins and some how still win. Also we might want to check what time in KR were the games played. If its some odd hours like 5 in the morning, I can see betters betting hard against Zest if they know he doesnt perform well at x hours.
|
Hmm, idk anything about odds movement but floating 1k minerals doesn't seem suspicious with zest, there's literally a meme with the zest bank
|
I know there's a way to track movement for regular sports like NBA. Don't think there is available for e-sports. At least I haven't found one yet but I don't care cus I just do it for fun.
On July 17 2020 08:52 ZigguratOfUr wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2020 08:41 Shuffleblade wrote:
Not surprising to me but very sad, the voided bets due to suspicious activity doesn't have to be matchifixing but it its the most likely explanation. The fact is the bets were likely large and very much in favor of soul to such an extent it was judged very unlikely to be a natural occurrence.
If matchfixing got to the stars of SC2 in the age of teams being there to help protect and monitors players chances are the disbanding of the proleague teams made it worse since players got more isolated and open for threats/manipulation. (Prime actually pressuring their players into it was an exception obviously).
This just made me think, ofc Serral and Maru only plays in the tournaments with the big money, since no one would matchfix for a loss there. (its a joke, not serious) Would it take a large bet to move the odds significantly? The sc2 betting scene isn't exactly enormous. Additionally while matchfixing is always theory number 1, there's other possibilities like insider information.
On Pinnacle, there's a limit to how much you can bet. On my "sure win" bets that I've been employing, I've been putting like $200 to $300 down. On that Zest bet, I put $100 on moneyline and $60 on Zest + 1.5. It barely moved the line.
Otherwise I bet $3/U to $5/U depending on my bankroll.
On July 17 2020 09:00 phodacbiet wrote:
I hope we can see the betting lines because that might be a better tell. The issue with Zest is he floats in MANY of his games. Dude would just micro his heart out while going up to 2k mins and some how still win. Also we might want to check what time in KR were the games played. If its some odd hours like 5 in the morning, I can see betters betting hard against Zest if they know he doesnt perform well at x hours.
The games were played in the evening KST. Before midnight.
On July 17 2020 08:52 ZigguratOfUr wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2020 08:41 Shuffleblade wrote:
Not surprising to me but very sad, the voided bets due to suspicious activity doesn't have to be matchifixing but it its the most likely explanation. The fact is the bets were likely large and very much in favor of soul to such an extent it was judged very unlikely to be a natural occurrence.
If matchfixing got to the stars of SC2 in the age of teams being there to help protect and monitors players chances are the disbanding of the proleague teams made it worse since players got more isolated and open for threats/manipulation. (Prime actually pressuring their players into it was an exception obviously).
This just made me think, ofc Serral and Maru only plays in the tournaments with the big money, since no one would matchfix for a loss there. (its a joke, not serious) Would it take a large bet to move the odds significantly? The sc2 betting scene isn't exactly enormous. Additionally while matchfixing is always theory number 1, there's other possibilities like insider information.
What kind of insider info are there though? Isn't that the same as match fixing? Or do you mean like "Player is gonna go this strategy, so bet this?"
On July 17 2020 08:58 Nakajin wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2020 08:52 ZigguratOfUr wrote:On July 17 2020 08:41 Shuffleblade wrote:
Not surprising to me but very sad, the voided bets due to suspicious activity doesn't have to be matchifixing but it its the most likely explanation. The fact is the bets were likely large and very much in favor of soul to such an extent it was judged very unlikely to be a natural occurrence.
If matchfixing got to the stars of SC2 in the age of teams being there to help protect and monitors players chances are the disbanding of the proleague teams made it worse since players got more isolated and open for threats/manipulation. (Prime actually pressuring their players into it was an exception obviously).
This just made me think, ofc Serral and Maru only plays in the tournaments with the big money, since no one would matchfix for a loss there. (its a joke, not serious) Would it take a large bet to move the odds significantly? The sc2 betting scene isn't exactly enormous. Additionally while matchfixing is always theory number 1, there's other possibilities like insider information. Yep, could just be the return of online stream-delay cheating (aren't there a few tournament cast from replay even?)
You can't bet tournaments that are casted from replay. Not for SC2 at least. Pinnacle took down live bet for LCS and LEC because of the stream delay.
|
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/41UhxyF.jpg)
These are the lines for tomorrow's opening matches. We can track and see how it moves from now till 10AM EST tomorrow.
|
On July 17 2020 09:13 geokilla wrote:I know there's a way to track movement for regular sports like NBA. Don't think there is available for e-sports. At least I haven't found one yet but I don't care cus I just do it for fun. Show nested quote +On July 17 2020 08:52 ZigguratOfUr wrote:On July 17 2020 08:41 Shuffleblade wrote:
Not surprising to me but very sad, the voided bets due to suspicious activity doesn't have to be matchifixing but it its the most likely explanation. The fact is the bets were likely large and very much in favor of soul to such an extent it was judged very unlikely to be a natural occurrence.
If matchfixing got to the stars of SC2 in the age of teams being there to help protect and monitors players chances are the disbanding of the proleague teams made it worse since players got more isolated and open for threats/manipulation. (Prime actually pressuring their players into it was an exception obviously).
This just made me think, ofc Serral and Maru only plays in the tournaments with the big money, since no one would matchfix for a loss there. (its a joke, not serious) Would it take a large bet to move the odds significantly? The sc2 betting scene isn't exactly enormous. Additionally while matchfixing is always theory number 1, there's other possibilities like insider information. On Pinnacle, there's a limit to how much you can bet. On my "sure win" bets that I've been employing, I've been putting like $200 to $300 down. On that Zest bet, I put $100 on moneyline and $60 on Zest + 1.5. It barely moved the line. Otherwise I bet $3/U to $5/U depending on my bankroll. Show nested quote +On July 17 2020 09:00 phodacbiet wrote:
I hope we can see the betting lines because that might be a better tell. The issue with Zest is he floats in MANY of his games. Dude would just micro his heart out while going up to 2k mins and some how still win. Also we might want to check what time in KR were the games played. If its some odd hours like 5 in the morning, I can see betters betting hard against Zest if they know he doesnt perform well at x hours.
The games were played in the evening KST. Before midnight. Show nested quote +On July 17 2020 08:52 ZigguratOfUr wrote:On July 17 2020 08:41 Shuffleblade wrote:
Not surprising to me but very sad, the voided bets due to suspicious activity doesn't have to be matchifixing but it its the most likely explanation. The fact is the bets were likely large and very much in favor of soul to such an extent it was judged very unlikely to be a natural occurrence.
If matchfixing got to the stars of SC2 in the age of teams being there to help protect and monitors players chances are the disbanding of the proleague teams made it worse since players got more isolated and open for threats/manipulation. (Prime actually pressuring their players into it was an exception obviously).
This just made me think, ofc Serral and Maru only plays in the tournaments with the big money, since no one would matchfix for a loss there. (its a joke, not serious) Would it take a large bet to move the odds significantly? The sc2 betting scene isn't exactly enormous. Additionally while matchfixing is always theory number 1, there's other possibilities like insider information. What kind of insider info are there though? Isn't that the same as match fixing? Or do you mean like "Player is gonna go this strategy, so bet this?" Show nested quote +On July 17 2020 08:58 Nakajin wrote:On July 17 2020 08:52 ZigguratOfUr wrote:On July 17 2020 08:41 Shuffleblade wrote:
Not surprising to me but very sad, the voided bets due to suspicious activity doesn't have to be matchifixing but it its the most likely explanation. The fact is the bets were likely large and very much in favor of soul to such an extent it was judged very unlikely to be a natural occurrence.
If matchfixing got to the stars of SC2 in the age of teams being there to help protect and monitors players chances are the disbanding of the proleague teams made it worse since players got more isolated and open for threats/manipulation. (Prime actually pressuring their players into it was an exception obviously).
This just made me think, ofc Serral and Maru only plays in the tournaments with the big money, since no one would matchfix for a loss there. (its a joke, not serious) Would it take a large bet to move the odds significantly? The sc2 betting scene isn't exactly enormous. Additionally while matchfixing is always theory number 1, there's other possibilities like insider information. Yep, could just be the return of online stream-delay cheating (aren't there a few tournament cast from replay even?) You can't bet tournaments that are casted from replay. Not for SC2 at least. Pinnacle took down live bet for LCS and LEC because of the stream delay.
There's insider info like knowing that a player is ill or something like that. Also there are bets for non-broadcasted games from WESG, so I'm not completely sure about the policy/reality of when bets close vs when games are played.
|
Northern Ireland24999 Posts
I’d assume it’s just betting sites not wanting to lose money and voiding where they can get away with it.
If they don’t want to lose money on Soul 3-0ing a Zest who doesn’t give a fuck don’t offer the bet.
Koreans have historically been so focused on Starleagues and Proleague when it operated that they’d tank even pretty lucrative opportunities all over the shop.
|
Here we go again 
Then again, none of the players who had their matches have the bets refunded were convicted of matchfixing, but that MarineKing game is still one of the strangest games I've ever seen.
|
On July 17 2020 10:15 Wombat_NI wrote:
I’d assume it’s just betting sites not wanting to lose money and voiding where they can get away with it.
If they don’t want to lose money on Soul 3-0ing a Zest who doesn’t give a fuck don’t offer the bet.
Koreans have historically been so focused on Starleagues and Proleague when it operated that they’d tank even pretty lucrative opportunities all over the shop.
Pinnacle's a big enough org so I doubt the small amount of money they gain from voiding these bets outweigh the customer confidence hit. I'm sure Pinnacle believes, rightly or wrongly, that there was something suspicious going on here.
|
Pinnacle paid out the PartinG vs TY game. I guess everything came back OK, as it should have.
|
While there are still offers of matchfixing out there (as proven by Special and other pros speaking up against it) and I'm sure it unfortunately probably is going on, keep in mind that even during Proleague when confirmed matchfixing was going on there were a couple of false positives, so take it with a grain of salt, but stay open.
Absolutely do not make accusations blindly. SangHo had his BW career ended over this, and MarineKing had his SC2 career ended over this.
|
So you think Zest threw his games vs souL is what you are saying?
|
Zest basically played with only 2 gases, building up a Gateway army against Terran bio while floating 1K minerals.
This has been his standard PvT play for years, #ZestBank included, the 3-0 result might be surprising but his play style is definitely not. Hell, even the result is not that surprising to me, we've known for a while that souL is a beast in practice who chokes up in tournament, maybe he finally got over his nerve?
MarineKing had his SC2 career ended over this.
While it might have contributed to his decision to retire, MarineKing towards the end of his career was completely washed and couldn't even manage to qualify for GSL anymore, I think that has more to do with it.
I agree with your general sentiment though, don't throw accusations lightly, and even if a game looks suspicious, innocent until proven guilty.
|
On July 17 2020 11:17 fastr wrote:Show nested quote + Zest basically played with only 2 gases, building up a Gateway army against Terran bio while floating 1K minerals. This has been his standard PvT play for years, #ZestBank included, the 3-0 result might be surprising but his play style is definitely not. Hell, even the result is not that surprising to me, we've known for a while that souL is a beast in practice who chokes up in tournament, maybe he finally got over his nerve?
I'm a fan of soul, seeing as Serral sees him as a good practise partner also says a lot BUT even with the recent 3-0 result vs Zest aligulac puts the likelihood of a 3-0 in souls favor at around 5%.
While I agree the gameplay in itself is not indicative of anything the voided bets and the one sided stomp in a match that should have gone the other way is suspicious.
Yes,matchifixing is not the only answer for why a lot of money was betted in a skewed manner but insider information is unlikely. If it was insider information that Zest was sick or whatever, would friends and family that got to know that systematically bet large amounts of money against Zest in a match he should win? Its possible but unlikely, the most likley information as to why a lot of betters bet against Zest is obviously some kind of information that Pinnacle lacked but where did they get that information, it needs to be from a trusted source since they are betting their money, is Zest keeping a ring of better friends that he tells inside information? Thats still not legit even if he doesn't matchfix
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
