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Based on the official Police investigation, only the above players have been implicated in matchfixing. There is no reason to further accuse other players and teams until we get more information. Incessant blind accusations will not be tolerated. Please read the thread and the updates before posting. As of page 54 we will be moderating against match fixing accusations for players who were not caught in this incident, including those using voided Pinnacle bets as evidence. |
On October 19 2015 19:29 Swoopae wrote:
Just saw this
Will be interested to see how many of the 12 names are the people we put together on our list of known matchfixers here and 2p2 - just catching up on the thread now
I've made it pretty public in previous threads which players I thought were fixing and Yoda and B4 were both on the list, and the list did contain something like 8-12 names from memory including two GSL champions
Only YoDa and B4 were players involved. Then there was Prime's coach, and then a handful of non-player/coaches involved. Recruiters/gang members/financial backers for the whole sham. That is the whole list of people involved in this investigation.
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On October 19 2015 19:37 Hider wrote:Show nested quote +On October 19 2015 19:29 Elentos wrote:On October 19 2015 19:24 Hider wrote:On October 19 2015 19:20 sAsImre wrote:On October 19 2015 19:19 Hider wrote:On October 19 2015 18:53 Elentos wrote:On October 19 2015 18:44 Hider wrote:On October 19 2015 18:31 opisska wrote:
So the whole Pinnacle nonsense is useless in discovering the real problem? hahahaha They just don't have evidence for those types (yet). On October 19 2015 18:40 rednusa wrote:
I watched a few of YoDa's VODs posted in the OP. None of them looks particularly suspicious. Yes this was the same dumb argument people used to defend against the original accusations (until MKP incident). Don't you understand how insanely easy it is to lose a game of Starcraft? If you are not on your A-game you are not gonna win a game in PL. In order to lose you just need to have slightly suboptimal micro, slightly suptimal builds, slightly suptimal macro and timings. The MKP incidence was the extreme rare occurance where you can actually clearly see how MKP lost it intentional, but that was due to an extreme "unluck" of MKP unintentionally spotting the creep on the minimap. The difference is that MKP was cleared from the accusation for what looks like an obvious throw by KeSPA because nothing was found behind it, while YoDa made more subtle mistakes but wasn't cleared because everything behind it was uncovered. He wasn't cleared from anything. They just didn't find the evidence, which is exactly what I wrote. You should reread Kespa's actual statement. Convicted until clear. What a noble sense of justice from our lovely TL warrior. People like you have no understanding of basic probabiliteis. He says, before starting to use random probabilities based on nothing concrete. Not saying I disagree, but seriously? Based on nothing concrete? This is the fist time in the history of Starcraft that a progamer has ever made such a gigantic ever as MKP did here. We can all discuss whether its one to a million or to a 1,000, but the ODDS ARE huge. Not watching the minimap for over a minute despite starting at the screen and your eyes glaring on the minimap are very very very low. The issue is the whole misunderstanding of "innocent until proven guilty" that pepole apply in the wrong context.
You're really the only one that didn't understood what it meant for as far as I can see tho.
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On October 19 2015 19:39 SkrollK wrote:Show nested quote +On October 19 2015 19:37 Hider wrote:On October 19 2015 19:29 Elentos wrote:On October 19 2015 19:24 Hider wrote:On October 19 2015 19:20 sAsImre wrote:On October 19 2015 19:19 Hider wrote:On October 19 2015 18:53 Elentos wrote:On October 19 2015 18:44 Hider wrote:On October 19 2015 18:31 opisska wrote:
So the whole Pinnacle nonsense is useless in discovering the real problem? hahahaha They just don't have evidence for those types (yet). On October 19 2015 18:40 rednusa wrote:
I watched a few of YoDa's VODs posted in the OP. None of them looks particularly suspicious. Yes this was the same dumb argument people used to defend against the original accusations (until MKP incident). Don't you understand how insanely easy it is to lose a game of Starcraft? If you are not on your A-game you are not gonna win a game in PL. In order to lose you just need to have slightly suboptimal micro, slightly suptimal builds, slightly suptimal macro and timings. The MKP incidence was the extreme rare occurance where you can actually clearly see how MKP lost it intentional, but that was due to an extreme "unluck" of MKP unintentionally spotting the creep on the minimap. The difference is that MKP was cleared from the accusation for what looks like an obvious throw by KeSPA because nothing was found behind it, while YoDa made more subtle mistakes but wasn't cleared because everything behind it was uncovered. He wasn't cleared from anything. They just didn't find the evidence, which is exactly what I wrote. You should reread Kespa's actual statement. Convicted until clear. What a noble sense of justice from our lovely TL warrior. People like you have no understanding of basic probabiliteis. He says, before starting to use random probabilities based on nothing concrete. Not saying I disagree, but seriously? Based on nothing concrete? This is the fist time in the history of Starcraft that a progamer has ever made such a gigantic ever as MKP did here. We can all discuss whether its one to a million or to a 1,000, but the ODDS ARE huge. Not watching the minimap for over a minute despite starting at the screen and your eyes glaring on the minimap are very very very low. The issue is the whole misunderstanding of "innocent until proven guilty" that pepole apply in the wrong context. You're really the only one that didn't understood what it meant as far as I can see tho.
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France12761 Posts
On October 19 2015 19:24 Hider wrote:Show nested quote +On October 19 2015 19:20 sAsImre wrote:On October 19 2015 19:19 Hider wrote:On October 19 2015 18:53 Elentos wrote:On October 19 2015 18:44 Hider wrote:On October 19 2015 18:31 opisska wrote:
So the whole Pinnacle nonsense is useless in discovering the real problem? hahahaha They just don't have evidence for those types (yet). On October 19 2015 18:40 rednusa wrote:
I watched a few of YoDa's VODs posted in the OP. None of them looks particularly suspicious. Yes this was the same dumb argument people used to defend against the original accusations (until MKP incident). Don't you understand how insanely easy it is to lose a game of Starcraft? If you are not on your A-game you are not gonna win a game in PL. In order to lose you just need to have slightly suboptimal micro, slightly suptimal builds, slightly suptimal macro and timings. The MKP incidence was the extreme rare occurance where you can actually clearly see how MKP lost it intentional, but that was due to an extreme "unluck" of MKP unintentionally spotting the creep on the minimap. The difference is that MKP was cleared from the accusation for what looks like an obvious throw by KeSPA because nothing was found behind it, while YoDa made more subtle mistakes but wasn't cleared because everything behind it was uncovered. He wasn't cleared from anything. They just didn't find the evidence, which is exactly what I wrote. You should reread Kespa's actual statement. Convicted until clear. What a noble sense of justice from our lovely TL warrior. The thing about "innocent until proven guilty" that people like you misunderstand is that it only matters when it comes to law enforcement. You don't put people into jail until they have been convinced in court. But we can still talk about OJ Simpson being guilty on the other hand because that's obviously true. What one should do is to estimate the probaiblity of (A) MKP not seeing the creep on the minimap despite starting at the minimap and (B) Pinnacleodds voiding a bet that wasn't matchfixed. Then you should multiply the them together. I estimate the odds of A being 1 to a million. The odds of B is 1%. Hence the probabiliy of MKP not matchfixing is 1:100,000,000. So I continue to talk as if MKP did matchfix untill you can provide enough reasoning to explain why my odds are off.
I estimate the odds of MKP being drunk or on drugs or stressed out or something, to be far greater than 1 to a million. This event will be called C. Then the probability of A, knowing C, is like 1 to 2. 1/2*P(C) + P(not(C))*P(A|not(C)) makes it not so unlikely that MKP wasn't match-fixing. Here's why your odds are offs.
For B odds, if you can't find stats that would help estimating the amount of false positives, your odds are an "eye test" so hardly conclusive.
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On October 19 2015 19:36 Scarecrow wrote:Show nested quote +On October 19 2015 19:35 pure.Wasted wrote:On October 19 2015 19:30 MalditoKyo wrote:
The timing is so bad! Just a few weeks before Legacy of the Void gets released, it's a pretty bad publicity for a game that is striving to muster up the core fans. I'm disappointed because the Korean scene is incredibly competitive, and this kind of behaviours are setting eSports back in 2010 again. You think this timing is bad, if this information had come out one month earlier, Proleague might have had to shut down, period. tbh the timing suggests Kespa may have delayed it till after the season finished
This wasn't KeSPA's investigation. I seriously doubt their ability to delay the investigation of an underground, criminal betting ring by the police on account of "this timing isn't great for Proleague."
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On October 19 2015 18:51 SystemXN wrote:Leifeng (the sponsor of Chinese tournament Leifeng Cup who has contact with Korean scene) revealed some facts about Prime on Chinese forum ( original post in Chinese) Gerrard never paid salaries to his players, he even prohibited players to use air-conditioner in team house during this summer (maybe to save money). Gerrard didn't care about Prime's SC2 team but paid his full attention on his LoL team. More ironically, even his LoL team cannot have five enough good computers to practice LoL, so Gerrard took iG (invictus Gaming, the Chinese pro team)'s two computers for practicing and never returned them. What's more, Gerrard took ByuN's top-class personal computer (which values about $1,200) to team house, not only never returned it, but sold it for money. It is sad to see both Gerrard and Prime as SC2 veteran come to such an shameful end.
How...how do you have a team if you can't even afford some PC's that play a simple moba. It's not like you need a Gtx980 for that stuff wtf
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On October 19 2015 19:21 Brutaxilos wrote:Show nested quote +On October 19 2015 19:02 ZenithM wrote:I just watched the first game in the spoilered section in the OP (HerO vs YoDa). I would never have guessed in a million years that game is fixed... I hope we won't start to suspect every game that looks like this, because there are a LOT of them. Sure YoDa was overly passive, retreated when he could have pushed forward, and had some shoddy micro at some points, but for me all of this is so YoDa it doesn't really surprise me  . It's probably a game he should have won though, sure. See after watching it with some context, I can actually see how a player could TRY to lose from that position without seeming too obvious. I feel like he did a pretty good job of making it look like sloppy play, but he definitely had a pretty solid lead.
Yeah but you kinda have to already know he's fixing (either to delay the outcome for an "over 15 min" thing, or just to lose) to even objectively suspect it. Otherwise, every time somebody makes a mistake and loses from an advantageous position you can just go "MATCHFIXED!!!!". It looked really seamless to me, and reminded me of how easy it is for pros to "throw" correctly. One late reaction here, one over-extending there, and bam, you're done.
Edit: Which makes what MarineKing did all the more complicated. What seems now obvious to me is that he was really fucking stressed out, fixing or not :D.
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On October 19 2015 19:40 Poopi wrote:Show nested quote +On October 19 2015 19:24 Hider wrote:On October 19 2015 19:20 sAsImre wrote:On October 19 2015 19:19 Hider wrote:On October 19 2015 18:53 Elentos wrote:On October 19 2015 18:44 Hider wrote:On October 19 2015 18:31 opisska wrote:
So the whole Pinnacle nonsense is useless in discovering the real problem? hahahaha They just don't have evidence for those types (yet). On October 19 2015 18:40 rednusa wrote:
I watched a few of YoDa's VODs posted in the OP. None of them looks particularly suspicious. Yes this was the same dumb argument people used to defend against the original accusations (until MKP incident). Don't you understand how insanely easy it is to lose a game of Starcraft? If you are not on your A-game you are not gonna win a game in PL. In order to lose you just need to have slightly suboptimal micro, slightly suptimal builds, slightly suptimal macro and timings. The MKP incidence was the extreme rare occurance where you can actually clearly see how MKP lost it intentional, but that was due to an extreme "unluck" of MKP unintentionally spotting the creep on the minimap. The difference is that MKP was cleared from the accusation for what looks like an obvious throw by KeSPA because nothing was found behind it, while YoDa made more subtle mistakes but wasn't cleared because everything behind it was uncovered. He wasn't cleared from anything. They just didn't find the evidence, which is exactly what I wrote. You should reread Kespa's actual statement. Convicted until clear. What a noble sense of justice from our lovely TL warrior. The thing about "innocent until proven guilty" that people like you misunderstand is that it only matters when it comes to law enforcement. You don't put people into jail until they have been convinced in court. But we can still talk about OJ Simpson being guilty on the other hand because that's obviously true. What one should do is to estimate the probaiblity of (A) MKP not seeing the creep on the minimap despite starting at the minimap and (B) Pinnacleodds voiding a bet that wasn't matchfixed. Then you should multiply the them together. I estimate the odds of A being 1 to a million. The odds of B is 1%. Hence the probabiliy of MKP not matchfixing is 1:100,000,000. So I continue to talk as if MKP did matchfix untill you can provide enough reasoning to explain why my odds are off. I estimate the odds of MKP being drunk or on drugs or stressed out or something, to be far greater than 1 to a million. This event will be called C. Then the probability of A, knowing C, is like 1 to 2. 1/2*P(C) + P(not(C))*P(A|not(C)) makes it not so unlikely that MKP wasn't match-fixing. Here's why your odds are offs. For B odds, if you can't find stats that would help estimating the amount of false positives, your odds are an "eye test" so hardly conclusive.
its not a thousand to one that mkp was having the worst day of his life and drunk/tired but its at least a thousand to one that he decided the day people are betting hundreds of thousands of dollars on him losing and being drunk + tired + nervous at the same time.
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I estimate the odds of MKP being drunk or on drugs or stressed out or something, to be far greater than 1 to a million.
There are several flaws with this argument.
Stressed out, seriosuly? Every pro player has been stressed out, but that doesn't imply they can't see the minimap when starting at it. And MKP has played many many pro games. Why exactly would he be stressed out here, what's special about this game?
When it comes to drugs. You implicitly imply that even if he took drugs, that the probability of him not watching the minimap is 0%. That's extremely unlikely, because he could micro his units right? Those his vision wasn't that badly damaged.
Secondly, if he was on drugs, his team could have used as a "valid" argument when they tried to clear him. They didn't and it just makes it alot more unlikely. Taking drugs surely isn't acceptable but if it cold clear him from match-fixing I don't doubt they would have used that argument.
Third, if he was on drugs and it had severe implications for his vision, wouldn't his team have noticed and not send him out?
And again, the whole drug argument is also just flawed because if there was a realisitc probability that players would take drugs before games and make hopeless mistakes --> We would see similar level of huge blunders. But nothing even comes close to this.
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On October 19 2015 19:40 pure.Wasted wrote:Show nested quote +On October 19 2015 19:36 Scarecrow wrote:On October 19 2015 19:35 pure.Wasted wrote:On October 19 2015 19:30 MalditoKyo wrote:
The timing is so bad! Just a few weeks before Legacy of the Void gets released, it's a pretty bad publicity for a game that is striving to muster up the core fans. I'm disappointed because the Korean scene is incredibly competitive, and this kind of behaviours are setting eSports back in 2010 again. You think this timing is bad, if this information had come out one month earlier, Proleague might have had to shut down, period. tbh the timing suggests Kespa may have delayed it till after the season finished This wasn't KeSPA's investigation. I seriously doubt their ability to delay the investigation of an underground, criminal betting ring by the police on account of "this timing isn't great for Proleague."
You're seriously overestimating the competence/effectiveness of korean police but you're probably right, I doubt Kespa could've delayed it much.
It also seems strange that only 5 matches were fixed over that period, with yoda doing 80%, considering the money involved. I'd be surprised if more don't surface as the investigation continues.
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On October 19 2015 19:47 Hider wrote:Show nested quote +I estimate the odds of MKP being drunk or on drugs or stressed out or something, to be far greater than 1 to a million. There are several flaws with this argument. Stressed out, seriosuly? Every pro player has been stressed out, but that doesn't imply he was on drugs. That's just a ridiculous arugment. And MKP has played many many pro games. Why exactly would he be stressed out here, what's special about this game? When it comes to drugs. You implicitly imply that even if he took drugs, that the probability of him not watching the minimap is 0%. That's extremely unlikely, because he could micro his units right? Those his vision wasn't that badly damaged. Secondly, if he was on drugs, his team could have used as a "valid" argument when they tried to clear him. They didn't and it just makes it alot more unlikely. Third, if he was on drugs, wouldn't his team have noticed and not send him out? And again, the whole drug argument is also just flawed because if there was a realisitc probability that players would take drugs before games and make hopeless mistakes --> We would see similar level of huge blunders. But nothing even comes close to this.
meh... im not a progamer or anything but playing in fish server 15 20 games sometimes im clicking so hard that forgot to look the minimap and only noticed the bunker rush when is done and attacking my hatchery,progamers skip sleep and train many hours,something like this could happen for sure.
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France12761 Posts
On October 19 2015 19:47 Hider wrote:Show nested quote +I estimate the odds of MKP being drunk or on drugs or stressed out or something, to be far greater than 1 to a million. There are several flaws with this argument. Stressed out, seriosuly? Every pro player has been stressed out, but that doesn't imply they can't see the minimap when starting at it. And MKP has played many many pro games. Why exactly would he be stressed out here, what's special about this game? When it comes to drugs. You implicitly imply that even if he took drugs, that the probability of him not watching the minimap is 0%. That's extremely unlikely, because he could micro his units right? Those his vision wasn't that badly damaged. Secondly, if he was on drugs, his team could have used as a "valid" argument when they tried to clear him. They didn't and it just makes it alot more unlikely. Taking drugs surely isn't acceptable but if it cold clear him from match-fixing I don't doubt they would have used that argument. Third, if he was on drugs and it had severe implications for his vision, wouldn't his team have noticed and not send him out? And again, the whole drug argument is also just flawed because if there was a realisitc probability that players would take drugs before games and make hopeless mistakes --> We would see similar level of huge blunders. But nothing even comes close to this.
What?
I explicitly said that if he is : stressed out or on drugs or drunk, the probability of him not seeing what's on the minimap, is about 50%.
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Norway25712 Posts
i dont even follow sc2 anymore but this sucks major dong, and not of the good kind.
also this stupid argument really gave me some giggles for my morning coffee, so thanks.
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On October 19 2015 19:50 [sc1f]eonzerg wrote:Show nested quote +On October 19 2015 19:47 Hider wrote:I estimate the odds of MKP being drunk or on drugs or stressed out or something, to be far greater than 1 to a million. There are several flaws with this argument. Stressed out, seriosuly? Every pro player has been stressed out, but that doesn't imply he was on drugs. That's just a ridiculous arugment. And MKP has played many many pro games. Why exactly would he be stressed out here, what's special about this game? When it comes to drugs. You implicitly imply that even if he took drugs, that the probability of him not watching the minimap is 0%. That's extremely unlikely, because he could micro his units right? Those his vision wasn't that badly damaged. Secondly, if he was on drugs, his team could have used as a "valid" argument when they tried to clear him. They didn't and it just makes it alot more unlikely. Third, if he was on drugs, wouldn't his team have noticed and not send him out? And again, the whole drug argument is also just flawed because if there was a realisitc probability that players would take drugs before games and make hopeless mistakes --> We would see similar level of huge blunders. But nothing even comes close to this. meh... im not a progamer or anything but playing in fish server 15 20 games sometimes im clicking so hard that forgot to look the minimap and only noticed the bunker rush when is done and attacking my hatchery,progamers skip sleep and train many hours,something like this could happen for sure.
except it never has, and you're not close to progamer level. Pro players just don't miss something for even a quarter that long, especially early game on 1 base vs 1 base. Anything over a second is a terrible reaction time at that level and what was MKP's?
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On October 19 2015 19:24 Hider wrote:
Then you should multiply the them together.
I estimate the odds of A being 1 to a million. The odds of B is 1%.
Hence the probabiliy of MKP not matchfixing is 1:100,000,000.
So I continue to talk as if MKP did matchfix untill you can provide enough reasoning to explain why my odds are off.
wow look at me i'm very smart, i used the word "probabiliy".
innocent until proven is not limited to law. In the relevant philosophy, the burden of proof is to be provided by you, to justify your claim that MKP did any matchfixing. Right now you know nothing and argue with people that know nothing, while spouting some pseudointellectual shit, claiming you are right until proven wrong.
Just shut up and sit tight with some popcorn.
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Really sad that SC2 was apparently on the rise again in korea and then this comes out...
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On October 19 2015 19:55 Scarecrow wrote:Show nested quote +On October 19 2015 19:50 [sc1f]eonzerg wrote:On October 19 2015 19:47 Hider wrote:I estimate the odds of MKP being drunk or on drugs or stressed out or something, to be far greater than 1 to a million. There are several flaws with this argument. Stressed out, seriosuly? Every pro player has been stressed out, but that doesn't imply he was on drugs. That's just a ridiculous arugment. And MKP has played many many pro games. Why exactly would he be stressed out here, what's special about this game? When it comes to drugs. You implicitly imply that even if he took drugs, that the probability of him not watching the minimap is 0%. That's extremely unlikely, because he could micro his units right? Those his vision wasn't that badly damaged. Secondly, if he was on drugs, his team could have used as a "valid" argument when they tried to clear him. They didn't and it just makes it alot more unlikely. Third, if he was on drugs, wouldn't his team have noticed and not send him out? And again, the whole drug argument is also just flawed because if there was a realisitc probability that players would take drugs before games and make hopeless mistakes --> We would see similar level of huge blunders. But nothing even comes close to this. meh... im not a progamer or anything but playing in fish server 15 20 games sometimes im clicking so hard that forgot to look the minimap and only noticed the bunker rush when is done and attacking my hatchery,progamers skip sleep and train many hours,something like this could happen for sure. except it never has, and you're not close to progamer level. Pro players just don't miss something for even a quarter that long, especially early game on 1 base vs 1 base. Anything over a second is a terrible reaction time at that level and what was MKP's?
i saw the game,and it not was that evident as people are pointing,the problem is that he scout the base with the reaper,and progamers also miss many things.kill own units and bases.he was already cleared so why continue with this grudge...
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On October 19 2015 19:47 Hider wrote:Show nested quote +I estimate the odds of MKP being drunk or on drugs or stressed out or something, to be far greater than 1 to a million. There are several flaws with this argument. Stressed out, seriosuly? Every pro player has been stressed out, but that doesn't imply they can't see the minimap when starting at it. And MKP has played many many pro games. Why exactly would he be stressed out here, what's special about this game? When it comes to drugs. You implicitly imply that even if he took drugs, that the probability of him not watching the minimap is 0%. That's extremely unlikely, because he could micro his units right? Those his vision wasn't that badly damaged. Secondly, if he was on drugs, his team could have used as a "valid" argument when they tried to clear him. They didn't and it just makes it alot more unlikely. Taking drugs surely isn't acceptable but if it cold clear him from match-fixing I don't doubt they would have used that argument. Third, if he was on drugs and it had severe implications for his vision, wouldn't his team have noticed and not send him out? And again, the whole drug argument is also just flawed because if there was a realisitc probability that players would take drugs before games and make hopeless mistakes --> We would see similar level of huge blunders. But nothing even comes close to this.
You obviously are already convinced MarineKing is guilty, so I can see how that game would seem so obviously thrown from your point of view.
But really, without the weird betting patterns, this is just MarineKing being MarineKing on a bad day and I would not bat an eye. At that point of his career, he was proned to dying to the most ridiculous and tiniest amounts of pressure... He's known for having bad map vision, bad defensive multitasking and is generally very emotional (that much is clear). I think you're grossly exaggerating how exceptional his blunders were in that game.
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On October 19 2015 17:48 Zealously wrote:Show nested quote +On October 19 2015 16:19 boxerfred wrote:
Not worth a new thread I guess so here it is:
Can someone prevent a Lorning suicide please? I have to say I can't really be as angry at YoDa as I'd like to be. Caught on a shitty team during a career downturn with retirement imminent, no interest from sponsors or other teams, no salary paid out - I can see why he felt pressured into accepting betting money 
I can totally understand that.
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On October 19 2015 19:57 -Kyo- wrote:
Really sad that SC2 was apparently on the rise again in korea and then this comes out...
: /
I would be surprised if this has an impact, to be honest. Not many people were expecting Prime to compete next season in PL anyway. No other players other than Prime players have been implicated thus far. If it remains isolated just to them, it shouldn't dampen the game's popularity because some less successful players were match fixing.
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EPT
