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Matchfixing is a very serious offence and accusations of matchfixing should not be made lightly. Please avoid making accusations against specific individuals unless you have substantial proof, or until further information is released. (0620 KST) |
On January 21 2015 03:56 dsousa wrote:
makes it even weirder because why would you fix a match to go the way that it was overwhelming favored to go? Why do all that risk for only a 20% gain, when you can do the same risk and bet on an underdog and get 500% gain. (at 5-1)
The premise that San fixed a match where he was a huge underdog doesn't make sense.
The heavy favorite won.
Only why was Dark such a huge favorite? 5-1 seems like insane odds for any proleague match.
Well underdog win would be suspicious, favorite win isn't. But Dark wasn't huge favorite. Why would he be? San crushed him 2 weeks ago. Dark was opened as moderate favorite but betting sites have odds that change based on how much you bet.
For example:
Dark opens at 1.7 odds which means if you put 1$ you get 1.7$ back.
if someone puts 100$ on Dark odds would change to 1.6
-odds are changed but maxbet increases
if someone puts 200$ on Dark odds change further to 1.5
-odds are change but maxbet increases
if someone puts 1000$ on Dark odds change further to 1.4
Thing is, if you just put money on one player who is favorite you will destroy odds quickly unless other people join betting on other guy etc. That's what happened here. Other people realized that 3.0 odds on San are fuckin great and started putting bets, but the other side continued with throwing money on Dark even after it was terrible to bet on him statistically.
Considering how odds moved and how bit maxbet got it is safe to assume that thousand of dollars were put on Dark, number is probably even 5 figures.
So that's when obviously Pinnacle gets suspicious, because this wasn't match like others, it was fishy as fuck.
I place bets each day, plenty of bets, 100-1000$ bets on sc2, and just based on what's happening with odds this proleague season, it's fuckin fishy as fuck. Today I was lucky so i got my 200$ back, but this wouldn't be the first time this season that I take some odds that suddenly became extremely good just to see player brainfarting ingame and that's why I seriously doubt that Pinnacle jumped on first suspision, I wouldn't be surprised at all that something fucked up is going on in Korea atm.
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On January 21 2015 04:05 just_mo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2015 04:02 OtherWorld wrote:On January 21 2015 03:59 just_mo wrote:On January 21 2015 03:54 Nebuchad wrote:On January 21 2015 03:53 just_mo wrote:
Amazing how far some peoples' heads are in the sand around here. Soccer and tennis have had huge match-fixing problems for years, and the people involved in those sports make far more than people involved in SC2. If they can be paid off to fix results, pretty easy to figure SC2 players can be as well. If Swoop's estimate for the handle (five figures) is even in the ballpark, how much of that money do you think it would take to get a player to throw one of these games? Ten percent? Could be less, honestly. All San has to do in his hypothetical is one bad blink and he pockets a quick thousand. And the fixers make off with 9k risk free.
Again, Pinnacle wouldn't take action like this unless something was very obviously awry with the betting patterns. I mean the reaction of TL is surprisingly accurate right now. We don't have enough information, so we're not drawing conclusions on one side or the other. And you registered just to tell us that we should be drawing conclusions instead? What the hell? I've been on here for years, just saw clueless people ITT making comments that clearly indicated they have no knowledge of betting market dynamics, etc. This is the type of stuff you need to know about to have a clue what's going on here. Also, I know Swoop, and I know his track record, he has been very successful betting on esports, up over 100 units AFAIK, trying to establish that he has a good amount of credibility when it comes to this stuff. Understandable people here don't know who he is or much about sports betting, trying to help people understand. I think we all understood that you know that Swoop and think he is right. Now that's still not a reason to go crazy without facts while waiting for further proofs is the correct thing to do. I don't know if he's right, but the evidence looks pretty bad for San. blah's post above summarizes things rather well.
We have yet to see any of this evidence thats supposed to exist. Sure they dont want to show their algorithems and that stuff but from MY point of view this is just someone vlaiming something without any backup
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On January 21 2015 04:06 ZeromuS wrote:The thing is was Dark favoured to begin with? Why would you bet so hard in favour of one player that it skews the payout the other way? According to http://www.esports-betting.pro/starcraft2/Dark was favoured at 1.467 to San at 2.800. So the bets put the favour even further to Dark's side and then Dark won?
Well Dark vs T was pretty invincible lately. So even though that doesn't mean anything for his ZvP, I would have given him better chances to win.
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On January 21 2015 04:05 just_mo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2015 04:02 OtherWorld wrote:On January 21 2015 03:59 just_mo wrote:On January 21 2015 03:54 Nebuchad wrote:On January 21 2015 03:53 just_mo wrote:
Amazing how far some peoples' heads are in the sand around here. Soccer and tennis have had huge match-fixing problems for years, and the people involved in those sports make far more than people involved in SC2. If they can be paid off to fix results, pretty easy to figure SC2 players can be as well. If Swoop's estimate for the handle (five figures) is even in the ballpark, how much of that money do you think it would take to get a player to throw one of these games? Ten percent? Could be less, honestly. All San has to do in his hypothetical is one bad blink and he pockets a quick thousand. And the fixers make off with 9k risk free.
Again, Pinnacle wouldn't take action like this unless something was very obviously awry with the betting patterns. I mean the reaction of TL is surprisingly accurate right now. We don't have enough information, so we're not drawing conclusions on one side or the other. And you registered just to tell us that we should be drawing conclusions instead? What the hell? I've been on here for years, just saw clueless people ITT making comments that clearly indicated they have no knowledge of betting market dynamics, etc. This is the type of stuff you need to know about to have a clue what's going on here. Also, I know Swoop, and I know his track record, he has been very successful betting on esports, up over 100 units AFAIK, trying to establish that he has a good amount of credibility when it comes to this stuff. Understandable people here don't know who he is or much about sports betting, trying to help people understand. I think we all understood that you know that Swoop and think he is right. Now that's still not a reason to go crazy without facts while waiting for further proofs is the correct thing to do. I don't know if he's right, but the evidence looks pretty bad for San. blah's post above summarizes things rather well. What evidence? Conjecture is not evidence.
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Well underdog win would be suspicious, favorite win isn't. But Dark wasn't huge favorite. Why would he be? San crushed him 2 weeks ago.
the difference is the amount of fucks that SKT gives for a foreigner tournament compared with the priority that the proleague has (the tournament sponsored by SKT)
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I don't know what to thing. That looks bad but I don't want to think that San is a cheater.
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On January 21 2015 04:06 ZeromuS wrote:The thing is was Dark favoured to begin with? Why would you bet so hard in favour of one player that it skews the payout the other way? According to http://www.esports-betting.pro/starcraft2/Dark was favoured at 1.467 to San at 2.800. So the bets put the favour even further to Dark's side and then Dark won?
Yes. The bets kept coming in for Dark, despite the odds tilting in his favor. Pinnacle adjusted the odds, but still couldn't get any betters on San.
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Canada13405 Posts
On January 21 2015 04:07 bLah. wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2015 03:56 dsousa wrote:
makes it even weirder because why would you fix a match to go the way that it was overwhelming favored to go? Why do all that risk for only a 20% gain, when you can do the same risk and bet on an underdog and get 500% gain. (at 5-1)
The premise that San fixed a match where he was a huge underdog doesn't make sense.
The heavy favorite won.
Only why was Dark such a huge favorite? 5-1 seems like insane odds for any proleague match.
Well underdog win would be suspicious, favorite win isn't. But Dark wasn't huge favorite. Why would he be? San crushed him 2 weeks ago. Dark was opened as moderate favorite but betting sites have odds that change based on how much you bet. For example: Dark opens at 1.7 odds which means if you put 1$ you get 1.7$ back. if someone puts 100$ on Dark odds would change to 1.6 -odds are changed but maxbet increases if someone puts 200$ on Dark odds change further to 1.5 -odds are change but maxbet increases if someone puts 1000$ on Dark odds change further to 1.4 Thing is, if you just put money on one player who is favorite you will destroy odds quickly unless other people join betting on other guy etc. That's what happened here. Other people realized that 3.0 odds on San are fuckin great and started putting bets, but the other side continued with throwing money on Dark even after it was terrible to bet on him statistically. Considering how odds moved and how bit maxbet got it is safe to assume that thousand of dollars were put on Dark, number is probably even 5 figures. So that's when obviously Pinnacle gets suspicious, because this wasn't match like others, it was fishy as fuck. I place bets each day, plenty of bets, 100-1000$ bets on sc2, and just based on what's happening with odds this proleague season, it's fuckin fishy as fuck. Today I was lucky so i got my 200$ back, but this wouldn't be the first time this season that I take some odds that suddenly became extremely good just to see player brainfarting ingame and that's why I seriously doubt that Pinnacle jumped on first suspision, I wouldn't be surprised at all that something fucked up is going on in Korea atm.
So someone puts a bunch of money on dark, lowering his odds and raising San's.
How does matchfixing for San to win actually accomplish anything if the odds drop substantially?
Unless of course there was a lot of money on dark, and then more money on San with the higher odds, then they pull out of the San side of the bet inflating the maxbet? Does that work?
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On January 21 2015 04:03 just_mo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2015 03:56 dsousa wrote:
Why would you fix a match to go the way that it was overwhelming favored to go? Why do all that risk for only a 20% gain, when you can do the same risk and bet on an underdog and get 500% gain. (at 5-1)
The premise that San fixed a match where he was a huge underdog doesn't make sense from the people who fixed the match perspective.
The heavy favorite won.
Only why was Dark such a huge favorite? 5-1 seems like insane odds for any proleague match.
Maybe the betting volume was incredibly low and there were no betters for San?
See, San most likely opened as 3:2 or so dog is my guess from what I've gathered on here. And someone max bet Dark over and over and over until he was a massive favorite. When you make max bets, it moves the line. The reason there is a betting limit it partially because the book wants to adjust the odds after a max bet to try to make it less attractive to bet that side. Yet someone kept max betting Dark at worse and worse odds until he was an overwhelming favorite to win a one-game series against a fellow professional.
This. Most people in here don't understand how betting works. Dark should have been a heavy favorite from the start. The reason this bet was so interesting was because San has heavily inflated PvZ stats, while Dark is pretty much one of the best zergs (possibly players) in the world and most people are just realizing it. He is being fielded over soO for christ's sake and he is considered as the strongest player in house.
People should also look at the source of the tweets. He had a personal interest in the match having bet on San. He also chose to retweet certain pictures to increase his publicity. He comes out a winner in this whole fiasco by getting press and not having to lose his money.
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On January 21 2015 04:10 xuanzue wrote:Show nested quote +Well underdog win would be suspicious, favorite win isn't. But Dark wasn't huge favorite. Why would he be? San crushed him 2 weeks ago. the difference is the amount of fucks that SKT gives for a foreigner tournament compared with the priority that the proleague has (the tournament sponsored by SKT)
Difference is how San would've crushed Dark today if he moved out and attacked instead of taking 3rd. You're not watching games carefully if you really think that Dark is so much better in ZvP than San.
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I call bullshit, I call so much bullshit
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So someone puts a bunch of money on dark, lowering his odds and raising San's.
How does matchfixing for San to win actually accomplish anything if the odds drop substantially?
Unless of course there was a lot of money on dark, and then more money on San with the higher odds, then they pull out of the San side of the bet inflating the maxbet? Does that work?
Placing bets on both sides raises maxbet because "it tells betting site that there is balance obviously"
but there wasn't matchfixing for san to win, there was 2 sides here placing bets
1 side (suspicious side) placing bets on Dark, and other side placing bets on San because odds were sick
side that placed bets on Dark put so much more money even though odds became shit. Trust me, you won't have thousands of dollars for long if you bet on Dark having 80% winrate in bo1 proleague matches.
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Philadelphia, PA10406 Posts
Seems unlikely to me that we'll get detailed evidence from Pinnacle. They are confident in their own detection methods, they won't feel that they have anything to prove. Additionally, releasing data about what they view as suspicious would aid fixers in the future.
Nobody wants another Calm here, but nobody wants another sAviOr either. Very tough situation.
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On January 21 2015 04:14 bLah. wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2015 04:10 xuanzue wrote:Well underdog win would be suspicious, favorite win isn't. But Dark wasn't huge favorite. Why would he be? San crushed him 2 weeks ago. the difference is the amount of fucks that SKT gives for a foreigner tournament compared with the priority that the proleague has (the tournament sponsored by SKT) Difference is how San would've crushed Dark today if he moved out and attacked instead of taking 3rd. You're not watching games carefully if you really think that Dark is so much better in ZvP than San. People make strategic errors all the time. You can watch literally any game and see stuff like this.
This is ridiculous. Wait for more evidence people. We have one accusation and no other information and we already have people proclaiming San's guilt.
Don't be Nancy Grace.
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Canada13405 Posts
On January 21 2015 04:14 bLah. wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2015 04:10 xuanzue wrote:Well underdog win would be suspicious, favorite win isn't. But Dark wasn't huge favorite. Why would he be? San crushed him 2 weeks ago. the difference is the amount of fucks that SKT gives for a foreigner tournament compared with the priority that the proleague has (the tournament sponsored by SKT) Difference is how San would've crushed Dark today if he moved out and attacked instead of taking 3rd. You're not watching games carefully if you really think that Dark is so much better in ZvP than San.
Thats not entirely true, San felt behind after the roaches got in, decided to take the gold and try to hold the next aggressive attack from Dark and then probably counter, or he was going to try and hit a 3 base timing against Dark.
Not sure, but San making big stupid mistakes is not so extremely rare.
Also Dark really is playing fantastically lately. Very very well, and he is clearly doing very well in the SKT house if he is playing over some of the other people on SKT based on internal ranking.
I really don't think you can look at San's play and claim a match fix.
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On January 21 2015 04:14 bLah. wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2015 04:10 xuanzue wrote:Well underdog win would be suspicious, favorite win isn't. But Dark wasn't huge favorite. Why would he be? San crushed him 2 weeks ago. the difference is the amount of fucks that SKT gives for a foreigner tournament compared with the priority that the proleague has (the tournament sponsored by SKT) Difference is how San would've crushed Dark today if he moved out and attacked instead of taking 3rd. You're not watching games carefully if you really think that Dark is so much better in ZvP than San.
crushed with gateway units against roaches with borrow movement and 50 less of supply?
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San pls no. I've liked you since you made Artosis swallow a sword. Pls no.
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On January 21 2015 04:14 bLah. wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2015 04:10 xuanzue wrote:Well underdog win would be suspicious, favorite win isn't. But Dark wasn't huge favorite. Why would he be? San crushed him 2 weeks ago. the difference is the amount of fucks that SKT gives for a foreigner tournament compared with the priority that the proleague has (the tournament sponsored by SKT) Difference is how San would've crushed Dark today if he moved out and attacked instead of taking 3rd. You're not watching games carefully if you really think that Dark is so much better in ZvP than San.
By your logic Creator should have lost to Zest twice today.
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China6330 Posts
All the evidence aside it just doesn't make any sense...
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On January 21 2015 04:14 bLah. wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2015 04:10 xuanzue wrote:Well underdog win would be suspicious, favorite win isn't. But Dark wasn't huge favorite. Why would he be? San crushed him 2 weeks ago. the difference is the amount of fucks that SKT gives for a foreigner tournament compared with the priority that the proleague has (the tournament sponsored by SKT) Difference is how San would've crushed Dark today if he moved out and attacked instead of taking 3rd. You're not watching games carefully if you really think that Dark is so much better in ZvP than San.
That's not really true. Dark had enough to defend. Actually taking the gold was the only choice since Dark had only a few drones more than San.
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EPT
