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Matchfixing is a very serious offence and accusations of matchfixing should not be made lightly. Please avoid making accusations against specific individuals unless you have substantial proof, or until further information is released. (0620 KST) | ||
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StarGalaxy
Germany744 Posts
On March 18 2015 07:17 illidanx wrote: Lol, you seriously use Auiliac for betting? Edit: wrong quote. Aligulac said 68% for Yoda to be correct. Aligulac isn't terrible if you compare players from the same playing pool. (Eu vs Eu, korea vs korea etc) Everyone said that the trap prediction for IEM was terrible. Who is laughing now?^^ It's a good guess but you probably won't make profit with in on the betting market. | ||
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The_Red_Viper
19533 Posts
Somebody surely analyzed this | ||
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StarGalaxy
Germany744 Posts
On March 18 2015 07:29 The_Red_Viper wrote: Again, the only voided bets we had so far are the ones where the favorite (i mean the guy with the most money on him) won in the end? Somebody surely analyzed this What do you want to say with that? The voided bets so far are Dark San and Dream Super. | ||
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The_Red_Viper
19533 Posts
On March 18 2015 07:31 StarGalaxy wrote: What do you want to say with that? The voided bets so far are Dark San and Dream Super. These are the only bets so far? I am just curious if there were bets which were voided but the guy with the money on him lost. If this was the case it wouldn't look as bad (at least i would think so) Apparently this isn't the case though  Some people mentioned odd line movements in the past too, anybody can tell us more about that? | ||
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HolydaKing
21254 Posts
On March 18 2015 07:25 StarGalaxy wrote: Aligulac said 68% for Yoda to be correct. Aligulac isn't terrible if you compare players from the same playing pool. (Eu vs Eu, korea vs korea etc) Everyone said that the trap prediction for IEM was terrible. Who is laughing now?^^ It's a good guess but you probably won't make profit with in on the betting market. SC2 is volatile enough for me to believe that GoOdy can take a game off Maru. So that YoDa lost might be unexpected for a lot of people, but it's far from being strange. | ||
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maGicc
Finland134 Posts
On March 18 2015 07:38 HolydaKing wrote: SC2 is volatile enough for me to believe that GoOdy can take a game off Maru. So that YoDa lost might be unexpected for a lot of people, but it's far from being strange. Yoda was only a slight fav, not a heavy one. His loss isnt strange, but the fact that someone put a lot of money on him losing a couple of minutes before the match is. The movement was way beyond being just volatile If the same line move would've happen in real sport like Tennis or whatever, it would instanly cause a massive uproar and everyone would be 100% sure the match was rigged. Only in sc2 you can have the ignorant enough community to get a "well, whatever, he is a better player anyway in my book" reaction. | ||
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StarGalaxy
Germany744 Posts
On March 18 2015 07:35 The_Red_Viper wrote: These are the only bets so far? I am just curious if there were bets which were voided but the guy with the money on him lost. If this was the case it would look a lot worse (at least i would think so) Apparently this isn't the case though Some people mentioned odd line movements in the past too, anybody can tell us more about that? Well there was also the first map between Innovation vs Super that was very strange. You can read about that earlier in the thread somewhere. But those three were the only cases as far as i know. I think it would be very odd if the person with most the money on would lose. Pinnacle also voided all those bets after the matches happened. I don't think they would void them in those cases. But i don't think it ever happened. I think the closest case to what you are talking about would be todays byul terror match actually. ------------------------------ Edit: Agree with what maGicc posted so far. | ||
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Wuster
1974 Posts
On March 18 2015 07:38 HolydaKing wrote: SC2 is volatile enough for me to believe that GoOdy can take a game off Maru. So that YoDa lost might be unexpected for a lot of people, but it's far from being strange. This is the big disconnect I'm seeing through the thread. We're trying to reconcile percentile odds against singular, discrete results. That is, a 10% underdog wins a game. Were the odds wrong? Not really since it wasn't 0%. But were they right? Impossible to tell from the result alone and most people who don't understand statistics will immediately laugh and say how dumb the oddsmaker was... Even when a heavy favorite wins that doesn't come close to proving he was as heavy a favorite as the odds said. I guess it's compounded by the fact that the majority of us here are fans. We all have opinions and can point to who we think is a favorite, but I doubt many of us can actually follow through within an accurate percentage point estimate of how much of a favorite (which would be impossible to prove anyways, so we all think we can do it). | ||
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Nezgar
Germany535 Posts
If you want to investigate this, do it. If you want to apply pressure on Blizzard or Kespa to make a statement, contact them. What you are doing right now, however, is posting accusations of matchfixing in an online forum without any proof that only serves to tarnish the player's reputation. All I see from you is either vile intent or a blind lust for some sort of drama just for the fucking sake of it. We get it, there is or was probably matchfixing or insider information or whatever in some form at some point. But neither you nor I know which matches where not played fairly. Suspecting a match to be fixed is an accusation of matchfixing and I'd like you to read the mod note. If you disagree with that one, feel free to discuss that in a different place - I heard 2+2 is a good place for people who like to point fingers and jump at shadows. | ||
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StarGalaxy
Germany744 Posts
On March 18 2015 07:47 Wuster wrote: This is the big disconnect I'm seeing through the thread. We're trying to reconcile percentile odds against singular, discrete results. That is, a 10% underdog wins a game. Were the odds wrong? Not really since it wasn't 0%. But were they right? Impossible to tell from the result alone and most people who don't understand statistics will immediately laugh and say how dumb the oddsmaker was... Even when a heavy favorite wins that doesn't come close to proving he was as heavy a favorite as the odds said. I guess it's compounded by the fact that the majority of us here are fans. We all have opinions and can point to who we think is a favorite, but I doubt many of us can actually follow through within an accurate percentage point estimate of how much of a favorite (which would be impossible to prove anyways, so we all think we can do it). You got you statistics right but you are missing the point here. Upsets happen all the time. If you compare the aligulac stats 68% with the 33% from the betting odds AND the combination that there was a huge stream of money Bunny is what makes it odd. | ||
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Wuster
1974 Posts
I'm just responding to everyone going, "Bunny could have won, what's so weird about it?" Of course nothing's weird, the statistics gave him a 30-odd chance to win! Like you said it's the context that makes things weird. | ||
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StarGalaxy
Germany744 Posts
On March 18 2015 07:50 Nezgar wrote: While I agree that it's fine to talk about stuff like this, almost no one of you is helping in any way. If you want to investigate this, do it. If you want to apply pressure on Blizzard or Kespa to make a statement, contact them. What you are doing right now, however, is posting accusations of matchfixing in an online forum without any proof that only serves to tarnish the player's reputation. All I see from you is either vile intent or a blind lust for some sort of drama just for the fucking sake of it. We get it, there is or was probably matchfixing or insider information or whatever in some form at some point. But neither you nor I know which matches where not played fairly. Suspecting a match to be fixed is an accusation of matchfixing and I'd like you to read the mod note. If you disagree with that one, feel free to discuss that in a different place - I heard 2+2 is a good place for people who like to point fingers and jump at shadows. Well if you read my post I warned people to be careful. I think it is helpful to raise peoples awareness. The only one who can investigate this is kespa. As far as I know they are aware of this but it doesn't look like they want to make a public statement. I haven't seen any accusations in the last pages?! I posted the numbers. I think they tell the story but feel free to draw your own conclusions about it. Edit: @ Wuster: yeah i see your point now. Agree. | ||
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12620 Posts
On March 18 2015 07:22 maGicc wrote: You are trying to present it like people from 2+2 are just some salty bunch who lost a bet and throwing accusations for no reason. I believe that the match was 80-90% shady, if not a direct fix, then something like tipping off a build or something along those lines. I exposed some facts that were missing from StarG's account of what happened today. The fact that you read it as an attack on 2+2 is kind of amusing. Let's be clear, if Terror won his game today, we would be in here talking about terror byul right now. | ||
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maGicc
Finland134 Posts
On March 18 2015 07:50 Nezgar wrote: While I agree that it's fine to talk about stuff like this, almost no one of you is helping in any way. If you want to investigate this, do it. If you want to apply pressure on Blizzard or Kespa to make a statement, contact them. What you are doing right now, however, is posting accusations of matchfixing in an online forum without any proof that only serves to tarnish the player's reputation. All I see from you is either vile intent or a blind lust for some sort of drama just for the fucking sake of it. We get it, there is or was probably matchfixing or insider information or whatever in some form at some point. But neither you nor I know which matches where not played fairly. Suspecting a match to be fixed is an accusation of matchfixing and I'd like you to read the mod note. If you disagree with that one, feel free to discuss that in a different place - I heard 2+2 is a good place for people who like to point fingers and jump at shadows. It was already done with 0 results. Both Kespa and Blizzard are in the ignore mode, hoping whole thing just goes away. Your approach is rational on paper, but it was already tested - "We dont know enough/not enough evidence/Its players reputation at stake!" - week or two pass by, everyone stop talking about it, and then the same shady bullshit with the same pattern off hammering money a couple of minutes before the match starts happens again. And it will keep happening, because not enough people are talking about it yet. Because this community tries to label everyone who accusses players "paranoid" or "jumping at the shadows". Unlike some people here. I am far from a fan. I dont care about player's reputations or careers. I dont care about what matchfixing scandal will do to the reputation of the Starcraft itself. But also i do not care about creating a drama or pointing fingers, like you suggested. I simply see way enough evidence to have clear understanding that shady shit is going on during korean tournaments, and a community blind enough to see it. On March 18 2015 08:02 Nebuchad wrote: Let's be clear, if Terror won his game today, we would be in here talking about terror byul right now. Once again, somehow in your head two line manipulations with the same pattern in the same timeframe with 2 different outcomes proves that Yoda-Bunny was most likely legit. Now that is what i call amusing. | ||
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The_Red_Viper
19533 Posts
On March 18 2015 08:03 maGicc wrote: Once again, somehow in your head two line manipulations with the same pattern in the same timeframe with 2 different outcomes proves that Yoda-Bunny was most likely legit. Now that is what i call amusing. I don't think that is what he is saying at all. But cause i am interested in this. Let's say 10 bets get voided by pinnacle (let's assume they do this BEFORE the result of the match is known, it was alreay told this apperently isn't the case in reality (which i find odd tbh), but just for the sake of the argument) In 5 of these bets the guy with the money on him actually loses in the end though. Wouldn't you think that you cannot use the other 5 bets as big evidence of matchfixing then? I get the vibe that this is what you are saying, i would be interested for your reasons though. (if that isn't what you think i am sorry) | ||
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12620 Posts
On March 18 2015 08:03 maGicc wrote: Once again, somehow in your head two line manipulations with the same pattern in the same timeframe with 2 different outcomes proves that Yoda-Bunny was most likely legit. Now that is what i call amusing. Maybe if you answered the things I said instead of making other stuff up, you would find it less amusing. What happened today is there were two weird lines movement. Pinnacle was contacted about it and said it was unconclusive. They are aware of it, and they let the bets stand. StarG's reaction is to come on this thread, ignore half of what happened to make his point look stronger, and say fuck Pinnacle they don't agree with me therefore they're wrong. A more logical conclusion would be, there is something different between what happened today and what happened the other days. A more honest approach would be, tell all the facts, not just what suits you. If we can't agree on that, then I don't know how you expect a discussion to be had. edit: I read your answers, StarG. The points still stand. | ||
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StarGalaxy
Germany744 Posts
On March 18 2015 08:16 Nebuchad wrote: Maybe if you answered the things I said instead of making other stuff up, you would find it less amusing. What happened today is there were two weird lines movement. Pinnacle was contacted about it and said it was unconclusive. They are aware of it, and they let the bets stand. StarG's reaction is to come on this thread, ignore half of what happened to make his point look stronger, and say fuck Pinnacle they don't agree with me therefore they're wrong. A more logical conclusion would be, there is something different between what happened today and what happened the other days. A more honest approach would be, tell all the facts, not just what suits you. If we can't agree on that, then I don't know how you expect a discussion to be had. Well I am sad that you don't read what i wrote. I exactly answered that question one page before. Here for you a copy and paste: Strange line movements happen. As a professional better that's something you instantly notice and talk about. Only a few per cent change can make a huge difference at the end of the month since the betting margin is pretty slim. The Byul vs Terror line was indeed odd. I am not gonna deny that. There are however also a lot of casual betters out there. There are some plausible reasons out there why this was the case. Maybe they read into byuls recent loss against terror for example. There is a HUGE difference between a strange line like Byul Terror and a RIDICULOUS line between Bunny and Yoda. The yoda line was the most ridiculous line i have ever seen which wasn't voided. I would estimate that the first one was ~10% off while the yoda line was over 30% off. AND To be honest i wouldn't have been terribly shocked if Pinnacle voided Byul vs Terror. Better save than sorry. If Terror would have won that game I for sure would have had a strange feeling about it. Not because Terror didn't have a chance but because the combination of him winning and him beeing heavily overrated would have been a very big coincidence. I mean that's how people make money from betting. They identify good bets. The Byul vs Terror line were just a bid too good to be true that's all. But like I said there is still a big difference between the two cases. | ||
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maGicc
Finland134 Posts
On March 18 2015 08:14 The_Red_Viper wrote: Let's say 10 bets get voided by pinnacle (let's assume they do this BEFORE the result of the match is known, it was alreay told this apperently isn't the case in reality (which i find odd tbh), but just for the sake of the argument) In 5 of these bets the guy with the money on him actually loses in the end though. Wouldn't you think that you cannot use the other 5 bets as big evidence of matchfixing then? Its hard to say just by knowing the # of the win/loss matches without knowing the actually $ made behind them. If manipulating a line in legit match A (and potentially losing money, since the result is unclear) will make your bet on a rigged match B stand, avoiding it to be voided - Then its very well worth it. Its hard to say without knowing how much $ you need to use to move a line to get a desired result in the specific match. On March 18 2015 08:16 Nebuchad wrote: Maybe if you answered the things I said instead of making other stuff up, you would find it less amusing. .... StarG's reaction is to come on this thread, ignore half of what happened to make his point look stronger, and say fuck Pinnacle they don't agree with me therefore they're wrong. A more logical conclusion would be, there is something different between what happened today and what happened the other days. A more honest approach would be, tell all the facts, not just what suits you. I see your point. It was kinda silly for him to ignore the "half of what happened". But in my opinion, that "half" makes his case actually stronger, and not weaker at all. | ||
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Wuster
1974 Posts
On March 18 2015 08:14 The_Red_Viper wrote: I don't think that is what he is saying at all. But cause i am interested in this. Let's say 10 bets get voided by pinnacle (let's assume they do this BEFORE the result of the match is known, it was alreay told this apperently isn't the case in reality (which i find odd tbh), but just for the sake of the argument) In 5 of these bets the guy with the money on him actually loses in the end though. Wouldn't you think that you cannot use the other 5 bets as big evidence of matchfixing then? I get the vibe that this is what you are saying, i would be interested for your reasons though. (if that isn't what you think i am sorry) This is unrelated to the topic, but gives insight to how people manipulate sports books. I don't know if Pinnacle bars people who are 'too good' at gambling like the places in this story though. But note that he intentionally makes big bets that he thinks will lose to throw people off his trail. Again, this story has nothing to do with match-fixing / insider knowledge so it's more for anyone wanting to learn more about how sports gambling works. http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12280555/how-billy-walters-became-sports-most-successful-controversial-bettor | ||
NovemberstOrm
Canada16217 Posts
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