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On October 08 2013 10:58 NoGasfOu wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2013 10:48 Dodgin wrote:On October 08 2013 10:43 NoGasfOu wrote:On October 08 2013 10:06 Dodgin wrote:On October 08 2013 09:43 NoGasfOu wrote:On October 08 2013 09:30 Dodgin wrote:
So now revival has the possibility to pass Mvp in the rankings thanks to his charity spot at IEM NYC =/ so dumb Guess who's the player that got 6 GSL bailout seeds! six? Huk? It's Naniwa No way, he got 6 seeds? I feel like it was more like 4. 3 code A and 1 Code S? First 3 are code A in which he dropped out 0-2 every time, twice to Lucky. A couple of up-and-down, and then code S.
EDIT: Misread the post I quoted  .
Re: Huk
Huk was part of the 4-foreigner allowance in Code A (in 2011) and was the only one that didn't get immediately eliminated. He made the Ro8 (got eliminated by Losira), qualifying for the Up & Downs, which he then made it out of, qualifying him for Code S (he also qualified for Code S a couple more times after that).
He then got a seed to up and downs this year which he narrowly escaped from, again qualifying for Code S. No other seeds for that nerd.
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MVP is IN!!!!!!. Only 1 spot left for either revival/naniwa now.
Duckdeok is also pretty safe now along with scarlett. Duckdeok needs to win only 1 match to be confirmed of his blizzcon while scarlett needs to make it to season 3 finals.
Personally I would prefer over Naniwa over revival but the amount of zergs is so few in blizzcon (Jaedong, Soulkey, Scarlett)
Edit : Hmmm actually now revival and naniwa can still make it if revival finishes top 4 and naniwa win IEM if Duckdeok does not win any match the rest of the year. Scarlett as always remains the key for the extra spot for these 3 guys. If scarlett fails to make season 3 finals, all 3 guys can get in. But god, is there anyone not rooting for Scarlett.
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jjakji chances has doubled!
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BTW guys, here's a preview of my new update with really detailed output for people who are very close to 100% or 0%. Without Aligulac MC had a 299999/300000 so I picked him for this demonstration. Also I made the percentages that are trimmed to 2 decimal places show ">0.00%" instead of "0.00%" when the actual number is less than 0.01 but greater than 0.
Edit: keep in mind, the listed items may or may not be the actual cause of the change in his chances, since there's only 1 example of a case where MC doesn't make it, and at that point the program is just picking events that only happen that 1 case when MC doesn't make it.
MC, 299999/300000, started with 2275 WCS points, 99.9997%+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +-------------------------------------------Genius gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Apocalypse gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------CranK Axiom gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 16th place in IEM
-------------------------------------------Sen gets 4th place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------Polt gets 4th place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------Heart gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 4th place in Korea Placement
-------------------------------------------soO gets 1st place in Korea Premier
This happens >0.00% of the time. When it does, it decreases MC's chances to 0.00%.
-------------------------------------------Apocalypse gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Trap gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Jaedong gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HuK gets 16th place in IEM
-------------------------------------------Life gets 16th place in IEM
-------------------------------------------Apocalypse gets 8th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------NesTea gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 2nd place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------HerO Liquid gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Polt gets 8th place in America Premier
This happens >0.00% of the time. When it does, it decreases MC's chances to 0.00%.
-------------------------------------------MC gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Soulkey WJS gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Jaedong gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------State gets 2nd place in IEM
-------------------------------------------Revival gets 1st place in IEM
-------------------------------------------Polt gets 16th place in IEM
-------------------------------------------Apocalypse gets 2nd place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 8th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Dear STX gets 2nd place in Korea Premier
-------------------------------------------Maru Prime gets 4th place in Korea Premier
This happens >0.00% of the time. When it does, it decreases MC's chances to 0.00%.
-------------------------------------------Oz gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------zest gets 8th place in IEM
-------------------------------------------qxc gets 4th place in IEM
-------------------------------------------HerO Liquid gets 16th place in IEM
-------------------------------------------MacSed gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------CranK Axiom gets 4th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Oz gets 4th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Jaedong gets 1st place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------PartinG gets 4th place in Korea Placement
This happens >0.00% of the time. When it does, it decreases MC's chances to 0.00%.
-------------------------------------------soO gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------duckdeok gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------puCK gets 16th place in IEM
-------------------------------------------Flash KT gets 8th place in IEM
-------------------------------------------StarDust gets 16th place in IEM
-------------------------------------------TLO gets 4th place in IEM
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------HuK gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Trap gets 1st place in Korea Placement
This happens >0.00% of the time. When it does, it decreases MC's chances to 50.00%.
-------------------------------------------Genius gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------CranK Axiom gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 16th place in IEM
-------------------------------------------Sen gets 4th place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------Polt gets 4th place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------Heart gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 4th place in Korea Placement
-------------------------------------------soO gets 1st place in Korea Premier
This happens >0.00% of the time. When it does, it decreases MC's chances to 50.00%.
-------------------------------------------Oz gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------zest gets 8th place in IEM
-------------------------------------------qxc gets 4th place in IEM
-------------------------------------------HerO Liquid gets 16th place in IEM
-------------------------------------------MacSed gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------CranK Axiom gets 4th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Oz gets 4th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Jaedong gets 1st place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------PartinG gets 4th place in Korea Placement
This happens >0.00% of the time. When it does, it decreases MC's chances to 50.00%.
-------------------------------------------soO gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------duckdeok gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------puCK gets 16th place in IEM
-------------------------------------------StarDust gets 16th place in IEM
-------------------------------------------TLO gets 4th place in IEM
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------HuK gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Trap gets 1st place in Korea Placement
This happens >0.00% of the time. When it does, it decreases MC's chances to 66.67%.
-------------------------------------------soO gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------duckdeok gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------puCK gets 16th place in IEM
-------------------------------------------TLO gets 4th place in IEM
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------HuK gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Trap gets 1st place in Korea Placement
This happens >0.00% of the time. When it does, it decreases MC's chances to 75.00%.
-------------------------------------------Dear STX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------MMA Acer gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Maru Prime gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------qxc gets 4th place in IEM
-------------------------------------------Curious gets 16th place in IEM
-------------------------------------------Flash KT gets 8th place in IEM
-------------------------------------------sOs gets 8th place in IEM
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 2nd place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------Hack gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Soulkey WJS gets 4th place in Korea Premier
This happens >0.00% of the time. When it does, it decreases MC's chances to 50.00%.
-------------------------------------------Apocalypse gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Trap gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HuK gets 16th place in IEM
-------------------------------------------Life gets 16th place in IEM
-------------------------------------------Apocalypse gets 8th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------NesTea gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Polt gets 8th place in America Premier
This happens >0.00% of the time. When it does, it decreases MC's chances to 80.00%.
-------------------------------------------Genius gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------CranK Axiom gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 16th place in IEM
-------------------------------------------Sen gets 4th place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------Polt gets 4th place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------Heart gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 4th place in Korea Placement
This happens >0.00% of the time. When it does, it decreases MC's chances to 75.00%.
-------------------------------------------Genius gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------CranK Axiom gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 16th place in IEM
-------------------------------------------Sen gets 4th place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------Polt gets 4th place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------Heart gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens >0.00% of the time. When it does, it decreases MC's chances to 85.71%.
-------------------------------------------MC gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Jaedong gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------State gets 2nd place in IEM
-------------------------------------------Apocalypse gets 2nd place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 8th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Dear STX gets 2nd place in Korea Premier
-------------------------------------------Maru Prime gets 4th place in Korea Premier
This happens >0.00% of the time. When it does, it decreases MC's chances to 85.71%.
-------------------------------------------soO gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------duckdeok gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------puCK gets 16th place in IEM
-------------------------------------------TLO gets 4th place in IEM
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------HuK gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Trap gets 1st place in Korea Placement
This happens 0.01% of the time. When it does, it decreases MC's chances to 95.24%.
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On October 08 2013 14:30 Kheve wrote:
MVP is IN!!!!!!. Only 1 spot left for either revival/naniwa now.
Duckdeok is also pretty safe now along with scarlett. Duckdeok needs to win only 1 match to be confirmed of his blizzcon while scarlett needs to make it to season 3 finals.
Personally I would prefer over Naniwa over revival but the amount of zergs is so few in blizzcon (Jaedong, Soulkey, Scarlett)
I wouldnt really use the word safe for Scarlett still needing to make season finals.
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On October 08 2013 11:34 painkilla wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2013 11:11 NoGasfOu wrote:On October 08 2013 11:01 painkilla wrote:On October 08 2013 10:58 NoGasfOu wrote:On October 08 2013 10:48 Dodgin wrote:On October 08 2013 10:43 NoGasfOu wrote:On October 08 2013 10:06 Dodgin wrote:On October 08 2013 09:43 NoGasfOu wrote:On October 08 2013 09:30 Dodgin wrote:
So now revival has the possibility to pass Mvp in the rankings thanks to his charity spot at IEM NYC =/ so dumb Guess who's the player that got 6 GSL bailout seeds! six? Huk? It's Naniwa No way, he got 6 seeds? I feel like it was more like 4. 3 code A and 1 Code S? First 3 are code A in which he dropped out 0-2 every time, twice to Lucky. A couple of up-and-down, and then code S. OK. Where are you going with this? Naniwa deserves getting screw over because of his 6 GSL seeds? Nobody is screwing him over. If he has the skill he will go through considering the number of tournaments outside of wcs he's sent to in order to get extra points. People are talking about Revival's 'charity spot' being dump. Well, talk about charity spots. You make $0-1000 if given a seed to GSL. You make $10k just by playing in Blizzcon. Blizzcon is the only one, biggest tournament of the year. There were 9 GSLs in 2011. If GSL are giving out seeds to foreigners, they pretty much have to go with Naniwa and may be one or two others IEM has 20 other choices beside Revival, the most controlversial one. The two situations aren't comparable in anyway. Also, Naniwa was seeded in GSL for doing well in foreign tournaments, so not all of them were charity.
I disagree, no foreign tournament was harder then the code A qualifiers. Be honest here, it were charity seeds to lure foreign players. What was even worse that when people that won them declined them, GOM would pick a lower played player and ask them. The result was just get top 10 there was a chance you could get a seed.
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Rain is out, which is good news for Mvp fans.
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Good news for Mvp and the ppl below him, but Blizzcon without Rain is really wrong. Instead we have cheesy protoss guys like DD, MC, sOs. But sOs is good though.
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Trap is the one that comes out. o.O
not who I was expecting, but he played really well.
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Trap can only make Blizzcon if he wins the S3 finals, a tall order.
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hopefully this update doesn't take too long lol, it's a bit slower now
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On October 08 2013 14:30 Kheve wrote:
MVP is IN!!!!!!. Only 1 spot left for either revival/naniwa now.
Duckdeok is also pretty safe now along with scarlett. Duckdeok needs to win only 1 match to be confirmed of his blizzcon while scarlett needs to make it to season 3 finals.
Personally I would prefer over Naniwa over revival but the amount of zergs is so few in blizzcon (Jaedong, Soulkey, Scarlett)
Edit : Hmmm actually now revival and naniwa can still make it if revival finishes top 4 and naniwa win IEM if Duckdeok does not win any match the rest of the year. Scarlett as always remains the key for the extra spot for these 3 guys. If scarlett fails to make season 3 finals, all 3 guys can get in. But god, is there anyone not rooting for Scarlett.
He could be surpassed by duckdeok/hyun/scarlett/revival and some random player like trap/dear/vortix winning season 3 finals no?
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On October 08 2013 16:04 Ace Frehley wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2013 14:30 Kheve wrote:
MVP is IN!!!!!!. Only 1 spot left for either revival/naniwa now.
Duckdeok is also pretty safe now along with scarlett. Duckdeok needs to win only 1 match to be confirmed of his blizzcon while scarlett needs to make it to season 3 finals.
Personally I would prefer over Naniwa over revival but the amount of zergs is so few in blizzcon (Jaedong, Soulkey, Scarlett)
Edit : Hmmm actually now revival and naniwa can still make it if revival finishes top 4 and naniwa win IEM if Duckdeok does not win any match the rest of the year. Scarlett as always remains the key for the extra spot for these 3 guys. If scarlett fails to make season 3 finals, all 3 guys can get in. But god, is there anyone not rooting for Scarlett. He could be surpassed by duckdeok/hyun/scarlett/revival and some random player like trap/dear/vortix winning season 3 finals no?
Technically you are correct, but the probability of 4 of those 5 happening is extremely extremely low.
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1001 YEARS KESPAJAIL22272 Posts
On October 08 2013 16:04 Ace Frehley wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2013 14:30 Kheve wrote:
MVP is IN!!!!!!. Only 1 spot left for either revival/naniwa now.
Duckdeok is also pretty safe now along with scarlett. Duckdeok needs to win only 1 match to be confirmed of his blizzcon while scarlett needs to make it to season 3 finals.
Personally I would prefer over Naniwa over revival but the amount of zergs is so few in blizzcon (Jaedong, Soulkey, Scarlett)
Edit : Hmmm actually now revival and naniwa can still make it if revival finishes top 4 and naniwa win IEM if Duckdeok does not win any match the rest of the year. Scarlett as always remains the key for the extra spot for these 3 guys. If scarlett fails to make season 3 finals, all 3 guys can get in. But god, is there anyone not rooting for Scarlett. He could be surpassed by duckdeok/hyun/scarlett/revival and some random player like trap/dear/vortix winning season 3 finals no?
Not enough points to go to enough (realistically capable) players to bump off Mvp at this point.
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On October 08 2013 16:04 Ace Frehley wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2013 14:30 Kheve wrote:
MVP is IN!!!!!!. Only 1 spot left for either revival/naniwa now.
Duckdeok is also pretty safe now along with scarlett. Duckdeok needs to win only 1 match to be confirmed of his blizzcon while scarlett needs to make it to season 3 finals.
Personally I would prefer over Naniwa over revival but the amount of zergs is so few in blizzcon (Jaedong, Soulkey, Scarlett)
Edit : Hmmm actually now revival and naniwa can still make it if revival finishes top 4 and naniwa win IEM if Duckdeok does not win any match the rest of the year. Scarlett as always remains the key for the extra spot for these 3 guys. If scarlett fails to make season 3 finals, all 3 guys can get in. But god, is there anyone not rooting for Scarlett. He could be surpassed by duckdeok/hyun/scarlett/revival and some random player like trap/dear/vortix winning season 3 finals no?
Ughhh i cant believe u would consider hyun b4 scarlett -_-. I can see scarlett winning WCS AM against the terran armies but can u even imagine hyun making it to the finals. Blasphemy. Winning the season 3 finals against the likes of taeja, mma SOULKEY. Better still even if the season 3 winner gets to blizzcon, chances are the one who drop off is revival/naniwa and not MVP at 16th place. Cmon theres no such thing as a major tournament without MVP. nuff said
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Absolutely amazing work by the way. A small request, could you add a ranking number before the list? That makes it easier to count at which positions players are or to see how many players are in! I find myself squinting and counting all the time to see how many people are already in.
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On October 08 2013 14:30 Kheve wrote:
MVP is IN!!!!!!. Only 1 spot left for either revival/naniwa now.
Duckdeok is also pretty safe now along with scarlett. Duckdeok needs to win only 1 match to be confirmed of his blizzcon while scarlett needs to make it to season 3 finals.
Personally I would prefer over Naniwa over revival but the amount of zergs is so few in blizzcon (Jaedong, Soulkey, Scarlett)
Edit : Hmmm actually now revival and naniwa can still make it if revival finishes top 4 and naniwa win IEM if Duckdeok does not win any match the rest of the year. Scarlett as always remains the key for the extra spot for these 3 guys. If scarlett fails to make season 3 finals, all 3 guys can get in. But god, is there anyone not rooting for Scarlett.
I'm not, I'd rather have Naniwa/Duckdeok/Revival to be honest.
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Ok update is posted. With GSL placement matches results, many details showed for players with close to 100% or 0% chances, and some formatting changes.
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EPT
