EPTBlizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 28
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Die4Ever
United States17744 Posts
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ffadicted
United States3545 Posts
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playnice
Malaysia302 Posts
Soo vs Dear Finals Any significant changes now? | ||
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Dragoonstorm7
United States599 Posts
Dear wins. Not the results I was expecting tbh o.O | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17744 Posts
On October 09 2013 20:13 playnice wrote: Wow + Show Spoiler + Soo vs Dear Finals Any significant changes now? Mvp's chances are gonna go down slightly  | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17744 Posts
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opterown
Australia54784 Posts
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Gescom
Canada3513 Posts
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TAMinator
Australia2706 Posts
I know Naniwa is still possible, but lets be honest, there's very very low chance he'll win IEM  | ||
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playnice
Malaysia302 Posts
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------MC gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------duckdeok gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------State gets 16th place in IEM -------------------------------------------Flash KT gets 1st place in IEM -------------------------------------------StarDust gets 2nd place in IEM -------------------------------------------CranK Axiom gets 4th place in America Placement -------------------------------------------HuK gets 8th place in America Premier -------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 4th place in America Premier -------------------------------------------Dear STX gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens >0.00% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 0.00%. This scenario actually looks possible. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17744 Posts
Yea but that exact list of events might've only happened once in the simulation and it just happened to be a case where Mvp doesn't make it. I think all these events give Mvp a lower chance, but might not actually lower his chances to 0%. WCS AM being so far behind is really limiting the accuracy on these. Once IEM is over and WCS AM is in the ro8 then it'll be much better. Maybe I'll try a run tonight with more samples, since the 300k samples choice wasn't originally chosen with detailed events on the people close to 100% and 0% in mind. Before it used to just not show any events that were too rare to be accurate. | ||
Darkhorse
United States23455 Posts
 . Still hoping he gets in, I think a Dear victory in the finals would help him out. | ||
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Kheve
323 Posts
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Kheve
323 Posts
Yes this is a probable scenario. But MVP chances would still be close to 100% in this scenario. MVP only needs to fear scarlett/duckdeok (probable) revival (possible) soo/dear (improbable). 4/5 of these gotta happen to knock MVP off. So far only 2/5 of these is probable. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17744 Posts
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Marcinko
South Africa1014 Posts
On October 10 2013 04:10 Die4Ever wrote: Polt not going to IEM might change some things, since Polt is one of the 100%ers anyways. Will be interesting to see the IEM replacements. Looks like Hyun will replace him.. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17744 Posts
Do we know who's replacing Stardust? I see some TBA spots on liquipedia still. | ||
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Marcinko
South Africa1014 Posts
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painkilla
United States695 Posts
On October 10 2013 00:31 Kheve wrote: Yes this is a probable scenario. But MVP chances would still be close to 100% in this scenario. MVP only needs to fear scarlett/duckdeok (probable) revival (possible) soo/dear (improbable). 4/5 of these gotta happen to knock MVP off. So far only 2/5 of these is probable. People that can pass Mvp: 1- Scarlett : very likely 2- Hyun : very likely 3- Dear and Soo : likely one of them 4- DD : not likely 5- Revival : very unlikely 3- is likely because player in KR region usually do well in the seasonal finals. 4- and 5- combine to a somewhat unlikely but not tiny chance. Overall I think there is a non negligible chance that Mvp will be out. | ||
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chipmonklord17
United States11944 Posts
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