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Blizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 25

Forum Index > SC2 General
1549 CommentsPost a Reply
Prev 1 23 24 25 26 27 78 Next
Dragoonstorm7
Profile Joined December 2012
United States599 Posts
October 07 2013 09:17 GMT
#481
On October 07 2013 18:14 liberate71 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 07 2013 18:13 Dragoonstorm7 wrote:
On October 07 2013 18:05 Fjodorov wrote:
Naniwa still has a chance but only if all the stars align :< The system is what it is but his run in MLG spring championship (3/4th place) was worth more than 300 points imo.

His BM at that same tourney was worth less than 300 imo.


Was that where he smack-talked Polt?

Yep. If you dont respect your fellow competitors you dont deserve to make blizzcon.
oblivion awaits- dark archon (aka best unit ever)
Dodgin
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada39254 Posts
October 07 2013 09:28 GMT
#482
On October 07 2013 17:59 slowbacontron wrote:
Lol, it's like a mini-cataclysm all on its own WhAt If MvP dOeSn'T mAkE bLiZzCoN????!?!?!?

We'll see


This is the only Cataclysm that anyone should care about. It's just not the same without the defending Blizzcon champion!
Dodgin
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada39254 Posts
October 07 2013 09:29 GMT
#483
On October 07 2013 18:02 Assirra wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 07 2013 17:56 playnice wrote:
Mvp should have taken WCS EU more seriously after his championship.

Who saids he didn't? We never know what state he is in thanks to his injury. The last time we heard about it is the fact that he needs to listen to his mouseclicks to make sure he actually clicks at all.
I't just painful to read and i keep wishing he would take a treatment already


I think playnice is referring to the fact that for season 2 Mvp flew into europe the night before his match instead of coming in a week+ early like he did in season 1.
Kheve
Profile Joined May 2013
323 Posts
October 07 2013 09:42 GMT
#484
On October 07 2013 18:05 Fjodorov wrote:
Naniwa still has a chance but only if all the stars align :< The system is what it is but his run in MLG spring championship (3/4th place) was worth more than 300 points imo.


Well the best case scenario for me would be rain and scarlett both make it to season finals hence blizzcon BUT duckdeok fails to win a single match from now on AND Naniwa wins IEM (to deny forgg rather than for the points). Then itll be duckdeok out of the loop while Naniwa squeeze thru at last spot. 14 Koreans 1 native european and american ea sounds about right.

Chances are though, Rain wont make it to 5th place thus he'll be out and we have the current top 16 minus Revival plus Naniwa so long as he finish decently in IEM (barring a forgg champion).
Kheve
Profile Joined May 2013
323 Posts
October 07 2013 09:43 GMT
#485
On October 07 2013 18:28 Dodgin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 07 2013 17:59 slowbacontron wrote:
Lol, it's like a mini-cataclysm all on its own WhAt If MvP dOeSn'T mAkE bLiZzCoN????!?!?!?

We'll see


This is the only Cataclysm that anyone should care about. It's just not the same without the defending Blizzcon champion!


More like the King of Wings/Cheese entertaining play.
jarod
Profile Joined September 2010
Romania766 Posts
October 07 2013 11:06 GMT
#486
On October 07 2013 18:17 Dragoonstorm7 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 07 2013 18:14 liberate71 wrote:
On October 07 2013 18:13 Dragoonstorm7 wrote:
On October 07 2013 18:05 Fjodorov wrote:
Naniwa still has a chance but only if all the stars align :< The system is what it is but his run in MLG spring championship (3/4th place) was worth more than 300 points imo.

His BM at that same tourney was worth less than 300 imo.


Was that where he smack-talked Polt?

Yep. If you dont respect your fellow competitors you dont deserve to make blizzcon.

Naniwa may be bm, but this has nothing to do with the skill, if he would have earned more points he would still be there, even now if he is doing like top 4 at iem he has a good shot.
Besides that Polt manner mulled and after went to him to shake hands, as i recall there were 2 sets between the 2 of them, and in all of them Polt BMd someway. This is no excuse to naniwa, I also really like polt, but i feel that the story is not that one sided.
and yeah.. i`m also a nani fanboy.
Maru | Life | herO
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3813 Posts
October 07 2013 12:21 GMT
#487


ForGG will not be able to attend #IEM New York. As such, his spot has been taken by Revival. http://en.intelextrememasters.com/news/new-york-the-groups-brackets/

Well this changes some things
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
Kheve
Profile Joined May 2013
323 Posts
October 07 2013 12:45 GMT
#488
On October 07 2013 21:21 Grovbolle wrote:
https://twitter.com/IEM/status/387189165432897536

ForGG will not be able to attend #IEM New York. As such, his spot has been taken by Revival. http://en.intelextrememasters.com/news/new-york-the-groups-brackets/

Well this changes some things


Well if this is true, then it spells trouble for naniwa. Assuming Rain does not make 5th and scarlett makes it to season 3 finals, chances are there is still only 1 spot left for blizzcon for Naniwa/revival. Except now instead of a top 4 finish to negate forGG, its now a better finish with 200 points advantage over revival. Oh well Naniwa jes need to win iem Newyork and hes still in blizzcon at 16th place.

Revival however now have a very good chance to qualify for blizzcon. So long as revival wins iem newyork, hes in blizzcon. regardless of whether rain places 5th. Then its MVPs turn to be in danger. as hell be either 16th or 17th depending on whether scarlett and rain both make the season finals.
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3813 Posts
October 07 2013 12:48 GMT
#489
On October 07 2013 21:45 Kheve wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 07 2013 21:21 Grovbolle wrote:
https://twitter.com/IEM/status/387189165432897536

ForGG will not be able to attend #IEM New York. As such, his spot has been taken by Revival. http://en.intelextrememasters.com/news/new-york-the-groups-brackets/

Well this changes some things


Well if this is true, then it spells trouble for naniwa. Assuming Rain does not make 5th and scarlett makes it to season 3 finals, chances are there is still only 1 spot left for blizzcon for Naniwa/revival. Except now instead of a top 4 finish to negate forGG, its now a better finish with 200 points advantage over revival. Oh well Naniwa jes need to win iem Newyork and hes still in blizzcon at 16th place.

Revival however now have a very good chance to qualify for blizzcon. So long as revival wins iem newyork, hes in blizzcon. regardless of whether rain places 5th. Then its MVPs turn to be in danger. as hell be either 16th or 17th depending on whether scarlett and rain both make the season finals.

Why wouldn't it be true? It came from IEM's own twitter
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
ffadicted
Profile Joined January 2011
United States3545 Posts
October 07 2013 12:51 GMT
#490
On October 07 2013 18:17 Dragoonstorm7 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 07 2013 18:14 liberate71 wrote:
On October 07 2013 18:13 Dragoonstorm7 wrote:
On October 07 2013 18:05 Fjodorov wrote:
Naniwa still has a chance but only if all the stars align :< The system is what it is but his run in MLG spring championship (3/4th place) was worth more than 300 points imo.

His BM at that same tourney was worth less than 300 imo.


Was that where he smack-talked Polt?

Yep. If you dont respect your fellow competitors you dont deserve to make blizzcon.


lol no. Respect is one of the most overrated things in competitive sports/competition in general. The only thing you should look to respect is skill so that you don't underestimate someone. Respecting them as a person, imo, is completely irrelevant.
SooYoung-Noona!
playnice
Profile Joined October 2011
Malaysia302 Posts
October 07 2013 13:52 GMT
#491
On October 07 2013 18:29 Dodgin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 07 2013 18:02 Assirra wrote:
On October 07 2013 17:56 playnice wrote:
Mvp should have taken WCS EU more seriously after his championship.

Who saids he didn't? We never know what state he is in thanks to his injury. The last time we heard about it is the fact that he needs to listen to his mouseclicks to make sure he actually clicks at all.
I't just painful to read and i keep wishing he would take a treatment already


I think playnice is referring to the fact that for season 2 Mvp flew into europe the night before his match instead of coming in a week+ early like he did in season 1.

Or it could be a calculated move by Mvp, which in itself is very Mvp-esque. It always feels to me that Mvp plans when to lose in order to gain the bigger price, much like how he plans his series and also the number of matches he participates in. Let's just hope he doesn't fall short this time.
ffadicted
Profile Joined January 2011
United States3545 Posts
October 07 2013 14:17 GMT
#492
With forGG pulling out of IEM in favor of Revival, Revival becomes a much much bigger threat to others in terms of making it to blizzcon instead of them. Would love to see how this shakes things up
SooYoung-Noona!
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17737 Posts
October 07 2013 14:51 GMT
#493
Emergency update with Revival replacing ForGG at IEM. This brought Revival's chances from 19.1% to 39.1%. ForGG went from 3.5% down to 0%.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
ffadicted
Profile Joined January 2011
United States3545 Posts
October 07 2013 15:33 GMT
#494
On October 07 2013 23:51 Die4Ever wrote:
Emergency update with Revival replacing ForGG at IEM. This brought Revival's chances from 19.1% to 39.1%. ForGG went from 3.5% down to 0%.


You're the best!
SooYoung-Noona!
monomo
Profile Joined August 2011
Germany150 Posts
October 07 2013 16:44 GMT
#495
I love Maru's 299999/300000 run

What in all heavens, the earth and all layers of hell has to happen so Maru doesn't qualiify
painkilla
Profile Joined June 2013
United States695 Posts
October 07 2013 18:15 GMT
#496
Failed visa giving free WCS points again? This is ugly.
Supernova | TY | Polt | Innovation | forGG | Lucifron | Happy
AySz88
Profile Joined March 2011
United States83 Posts
October 07 2013 20:23 GMT
#497
VortiX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 5.49% of the time.


But VortiX didn't qualify into Season 3 Finals...? According to latest Gosu or Go Home.
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17737 Posts
October 07 2013 20:29 GMT
#498
On October 08 2013 05:23 AySz88 wrote:
Show nested quote +
VortiX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 5.49% of the time.


But VortiX didn't qualify into Season 3 Finals...? According to latest Gosu or Go Home.

Unless Vortix can't go, he's qualified since he made top 4.
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2013_WCS_Season_3#Participants
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3813 Posts
October 07 2013 20:38 GMT
#499
On October 08 2013 05:23 AySz88 wrote:
Show nested quote +
VortiX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 5.49% of the time.


But VortiX didn't qualify into Season 3 Finals...? According to latest Gosu or Go Home.

Who do you trust? Liquipedia or some stupid official Blizzard posts. Obviously the dun goofed.... As always
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
AskJoshy
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States1625 Posts
October 07 2013 22:50 GMT
#500
The WCS article is now edited.
Heroes, Hearthstone, and SC2 videos: http://www.youtube.com/AskJoshy
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