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On October 07 2013 07:54 Dodgin wrote:
Mvp's chances are going down, so scary. If two completely random players make top at 2 at season finals and he gets passed by duckduck it could be bad. revival and naniwa have no way to pass him though. even if naniwa wins IEM NYC he would have 3500.
it's gonna be close. Gotta root against Scarlett and Hyun, unfortunately.
What's really weird is, Mvp and sOs are tied, and I'm not sure how they decide which one ranks above the other. Although if sOs wins his challenger league match, he'll be ahead.
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On October 07 2013 07:54 Dodgin wrote:
Mvp's chances are going down, so scary. If two completely random players make top at 2 at season finals and he gets passed by duckduck it could be bad. revival and naniwa have no way to pass him though. even if naniwa wins IEM NYC he would have 3500.
These players at the bottom of the top16 should be shitting their pants right now
There's a few players below top 16 who can still rack up a lot of points
Scarlett
Hyun
Vortix (unlikely as he need to go very far in the season 3 finals)
SoO
Rain (if he gets 5th place in Korea)
Or even someone totally random like Dear, Trap, Parting, jjakji could go on a rampage in the season finals, win the whole thing and get lots of points
And Forgg can threat Naniwa
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182 Posts
Well, the situation seems pretty straightforward: There's 13 spots taken (14, if duckdeok wins at least one match in the S3 final), the rest is still up for grabs for a handful of likely players.
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On October 07 2013 07:54 Dodgin wrote:
Mvp's chances are going down, so scary. If two completely random players make top at 2 at season finals and he gets passed by duckduck it could be bad. revival and naniwa have no way to pass him though. even if naniwa wins IEM NYC he would have 3500.
Mvp is fine, virtual guarantee
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On October 07 2013 07:54 Dodgin wrote:
Mvp's chances are going down, so scary. If two completely random players make top at 2 at season finals and he gets passed by duckduck it could be bad. revival and naniwa have no way to pass him though. even if naniwa wins IEM NYC he would have 3500.
What part of 97% scares you
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United States97276 Posts
On October 07 2013 11:20 fuzzylogic44 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 07:54 Dodgin wrote:
Mvp's chances are going down, so scary. If two completely random players make top at 2 at season finals and he gets passed by duckduck it could be bad. revival and naniwa have no way to pass him though. even if naniwa wins IEM NYC he would have 3500. What part of 97% scares you
the 3% probably
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If you look beyond just the numbers It almost seems sort of likely, Dear gets 1st or 2nd in GSL then does okay in season finals, he passes Mvp. duckdeok wins one round he passes Mvp. Scarlett could also potentially pass Mvp. Soo actually has a pretty good chance at passing Mvp. If Rain makes the season finals he could pass him as well. Hell even Hyun could.
Of course Naniwa and Revival should be much more scared.
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On October 07 2013 11:22 Shellshock wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 11:20 fuzzylogic44 wrote:On October 07 2013 07:54 Dodgin wrote:
Mvp's chances are going down, so scary. If two completely random players make top at 2 at season finals and he gets passed by duckduck it could be bad. revival and naniwa have no way to pass him though. even if naniwa wins IEM NYC he would have 3500. What part of 97% scares you the 3% probably
lmaaaaaaaaaaao
Man, f*ck, I'm feeling so tense about the KR placement matches... I want rain to win so badly 
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On October 07 2013 11:26 Dodgin wrote:
If you look beyond just the numbers It almost seems sort of likely, Dear gets 1st or 2nd in GSL then does okay in season finals, he passes Mvp. duckdeok wins one round he passes Mvp. Scarlett could also potentially pass Mvp. Soo actually has a pretty good chance at passing Mvp. If Rain makes the season finals he could pass him as well. Hell even Hyun could.
Of course Naniwa and Revival should be much more scared.
There are no S3 finals, right?
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On October 07 2013 11:57 kaos00 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 11:26 Dodgin wrote:
If you look beyond just the numbers It almost seems sort of likely, Dear gets 1st or 2nd in GSL then does okay in season finals, he passes Mvp. duckdeok wins one round he passes Mvp. Scarlett could also potentially pass Mvp. Soo actually has a pretty good chance at passing Mvp. If Rain makes the season finals he could pass him as well. Hell even Hyun could.
Of course Naniwa and Revival should be much more scared. There are no S3 finals, right?
yes there are, It's in toronto.
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On October 07 2013 11:26 Dodgin wrote:
If you look beyond just the numbers It almost seems sort of likely, Dear gets 1st or 2nd in GSL then does okay in season finals, he passes Mvp. duckdeok wins one round he passes Mvp. Scarlett could also potentially pass Mvp. Soo actually has a pretty good chance at passing Mvp. If Rain makes the season finals he could pass him as well. Hell even Hyun could.
Of course Naniwa and Revival should be much more scared.
Yes, if you look at the players individually, it seems that way. But you have to remember they will play each other at the season 3 so in affect, they will eliminate each other.
Players that do well in season 3 finals will move up. But there is only so many people that can do well. Plus people already in will also take points away. That is why the numbers don't lie.
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On October 07 2013 12:55 vthree wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 11:26 Dodgin wrote:
If you look beyond just the numbers It almost seems sort of likely, Dear gets 1st or 2nd in GSL then does okay in season finals, he passes Mvp. duckdeok wins one round he passes Mvp. Scarlett could also potentially pass Mvp. Soo actually has a pretty good chance at passing Mvp. If Rain makes the season finals he could pass him as well. Hell even Hyun could.
Of course Naniwa and Revival should be much more scared. Yes, if you look at the players individually, it seems that way. But you have to remember they will play each other at the season 3 so in affect, they will eliminate each other. Players that do well in season 3 finals will move up. But there is only so many people that can do well. Plus people already in will also take points away. That is why the numbers don't lie.
Precisely.
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You guys are driving me crazy, I'm a big Mvp fan lol. So I ran a simulation just for Mvp with 500k samples and a very exhaustive search on the game changers. This was run with the help of aligulac.
Sorry duckdeok, but I'd like you to lose in the ro16 of the season finals lol.
Mvp IM, 486285/500000, started with 3400 WCS points, 97.257%+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HuK gets 8th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------HerO Liquid gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 0.21% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 80.24%.
-------------------------------------------Sen gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HerO Liquid gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 0.12% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 80.50%.
-------------------------------------------Genius gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 0.44% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 81.71%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HerO Liquid gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Polt gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 0.97% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 81.95%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 2nd place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------MacSed gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 0.41% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 85.02%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 8th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------HerO Liquid gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Polt gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 4th place in Korea Placement
This happens 0.14% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 85.12%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HerO Liquid gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 2.87% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 85.84%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 2nd place in America Placement
This happens 0.75% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 86.08%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HerO Liquid gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Polt gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 4th place in Korea Placement
This happens 0.45% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 86.16%.
-------------------------------------------soO gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 1st place in America Premier
This happens 0.29% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 86.93%.
-------------------------------------------duckdeok gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Korea Placement
This happens 7.32% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 88.53%.
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Jaedong gets 4th place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 4th place in America Premier
This happens 0.53% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 87.18%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Heart gets 4th place in America Placement
This happens 0.90% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 87.42%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Heart gets 4th place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------Heart gets 8th place in America Premier
This happens 0.20% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 87.98%.
-------------------------------------------soO gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 0.81% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 88.16%.
-------------------------------------------duckdeok gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------TaeJa gets 4th place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------PartinG gets 2nd place in Korea Placement
This happens 0.54% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 88.19%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 6.80% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 89.39%.
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 7.11% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 89.47%.
-------------------------------------------soO gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 0.37% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 88.30%.
-------------------------------------------soO gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 2nd place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Soulkey WJS gets 4th place in Korea Premier
This happens 0.43% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 88.45%.
-------------------------------------------Genius gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Heart gets 4th place in America Placement
This happens 0.44% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 88.47%.
-------------------------------------------HuK gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HuK gets 8th place in America Premier
This happens 0.14% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 88.61%.
-------------------------------------------soO gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------MacSed gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 2nd place in America Premier
This happens 0.25% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 88.77%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 1.30% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 89.27%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 2nd place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------MacSed gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 8th place in America Premier
This happens 0.10% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 89.10%.
-------------------------------------------Sen gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HerO Liquid gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 1.00% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 89.47%.
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 3.55% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 89.98%.
-------------------------------------------Apocalypse gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 0.11% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 89.56%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Heart gets 4th place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------Oz gets 8th place in America Premier
This happens 0.24% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 89.62%.
-------------------------------------------Oz gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Oz gets 1st place in America Premier
This happens 0.22% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 89.74%.
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 4th place in America Premier
This happens 4.94% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 90.51%.
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Sen gets 4th place in America Placement
This happens 0.77% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 89.94%.
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 2nd place in America Placement
This happens 0.22% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 89.87%.
-------------------------------------------soO gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 2nd place in America Premier
This happens 0.42% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 89.93%.
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 8th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------MacSed gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Oz gets 8th place in America Premier
This happens 0.18% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 90.08%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Soulkey WJS gets 4th place in Korea Premier
This happens 2.00% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 90.43%.
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 8th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 4th place in America Premier
This happens 1.79% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 90.52%.
-------------------------------------------Genius gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 3.29% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 90.74%.
-------------------------------------------MC gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 2nd place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------jjakji gets 2nd place in Korea Placement
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Korea Placement
-------------------------------------------soO gets 4th place in Korea Premier
This happens 0.47% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 90.42%.
-------------------------------------------duckdeok gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 8th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------TaeJa gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Trap gets 4th place in Korea Placement
This happens 0.57% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 90.45%.
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 1st place in America Premier
This happens 0.32% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 90.43%.
-------------------------------------------Dear STX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 3.05% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 90.85%.
-------------------------------------------duckdeok gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HerO Liquid gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 11.24% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.83%.
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 2nd place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------Heart gets 4th place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------Heart gets 8th place in America Premier
This happens 0.32% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 90.51%.
-------------------------------------------Oz gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 0.77% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 90.92%.
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 0.32% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 90.86%.
-------------------------------------------duckdeok gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------PartinG gets 2nd place in Korea Placement
This happens 6.38% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.67%.
-------------------------------------------soO gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 3.12% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.37%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Polt gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 2.01% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.23%.
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------TaeJa gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 0.65% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.06%.
-------------------------------------------Heart gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 0.17% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.05%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 0.18% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.12%.
-------------------------------------------soO gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 2nd place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Polt gets 1st place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Korea Placement
This happens 0.33% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.14%.
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Polt gets 4th place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------Soulkey WJS gets 4th place in Korea Premier
This happens 0.51% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.19%.
-------------------------------------------Dear STX gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 0.34% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.18%.
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 6.10% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.09%.
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Polt gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 4.31% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.96%.
-------------------------------------------duckdeok gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Hack gets 8th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------MacSed gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------HerO Liquid gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 2.19% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.73%.
-------------------------------------------Jaedong gets 4th place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------Apocalypse gets 8th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 4th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Soulkey WJS gets 4th place in Korea Premier
This happens 0.26% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.64%.
-------------------------------------------CranK Axiom gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 0.19% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.67%.
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 2nd place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------jjakji gets 2nd place in Korea Placement
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Korea Placement
-------------------------------------------soO gets 4th place in Korea Premier
This happens 0.88% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.82%.
-------------------------------------------soO gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 8th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Oz gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------jjakji gets 2nd place in Korea Placement
This happens 0.38% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.79%.
-------------------------------------------soO gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Soulkey WJS gets 4th place in Korea Premier
This happens 0.52% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.86%.
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Polt gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Soulkey WJS gets 4th place in Korea Premier
This happens 1.41% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.99%.
-------------------------------------------Sen gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 2.36% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.12%.
-------------------------------------------MC gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------duckdeok gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------TaeJa gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Korea Placement
This happens 0.18% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.87%.
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------MacSed gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Oz gets 8th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Soulkey WJS gets 4th place in Korea Premier
This happens 0.70% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.98%.
-------------------------------------------NesTea gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 0.58% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.97%.
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 1st place in America Premier
This happens 5.52% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.53%.
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 8th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------CranK Axiom gets 8th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 2nd place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------soO gets 1st place in Korea Premier
This happens 0.10% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.96%.
-------------------------------------------MC gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Apocalypse gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 2nd place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------jjakji gets 2nd place in Korea Placement
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Korea Placement
-------------------------------------------soO gets 4th place in Korea Premier
This happens 0.28% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.99%.
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 8th place in America Premier
This happens 1.85% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.18%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 5.45% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.58%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------TaeJa gets 1st place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Polt gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 0.45% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.06%.
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------MacSed gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 4th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Soulkey WJS gets 4th place in Korea Premier
This happens 0.26% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.06%.
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Heart gets 8th place in America Premier
This happens 3.06% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.40%.
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 1st place in America Premier
This happens 15.13% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 93.42%.
-------------------------------------------HuK gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 0.41% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.13%.
-------------------------------------------duckdeok gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 26.70% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 94.08%.
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 8th place in America Premier
This happens 3.55% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.51%.
-------------------------------------------Oz gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 0.12% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.18%.
-------------------------------------------duckdeok gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Hack gets 8th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------HerO Liquid gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 4.18% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.69%.
-------------------------------------------soO gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 8th place in America Premier
This happens 0.21% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.38%.
-------------------------------------------MacSed gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 0.16% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.40%.
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 2nd place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------TaeJa gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 3.39% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.75%.
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Korea Placement
This happens 27.56% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 94.33%.
-------------------------------------------PartinG gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 2nd place in America Placement
This happens 0.22% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.53%.
-------------------------------------------duckdeok gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 55.09% of the time. When it does, it increases Mvp IM's chances to 99.33%.
-------------------------------------------Hack gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Trap gets 4th place in Korea Placement
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Korea Placement
This happens 15.43% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 93.78%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Hack gets 8th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Polt gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 0.55% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.61%.
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 1.77% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.76%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Maru Prime gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Hack gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 0.72% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.66%.
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 1st place in IEM
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 8th place in America Premier
This happens 0.17% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.70%.
-------------------------------------------duckdeok gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Polt gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 3.69% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 93.05%.
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 0.76% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.78%.
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Jaedong gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 8th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 4th place in America Premier
This happens 0.16% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.73%.
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 4th place in Korea Placement
This happens 1.29% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.85%.
-------------------------------------------soO gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Heart gets 4th place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------Apocalypse gets 2nd place in America Placement
This happens 0.22% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.78%.
-------------------------------------------Sen gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 0.34% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.81%.
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Oz gets 4th place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------CranK Axiom gets 8th place in America Premier
This happens 0.25% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.83%.
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On October 07 2013 12:55 vthree wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 11:26 Dodgin wrote:
If you look beyond just the numbers It almost seems sort of likely, Dear gets 1st or 2nd in GSL then does okay in season finals, he passes Mvp. duckdeok wins one round he passes Mvp. Scarlett could also potentially pass Mvp. Soo actually has a pretty good chance at passing Mvp. If Rain makes the season finals he could pass him as well. Hell even Hyun could.
Of course Naniwa and Revival should be much more scared. Yes, if you look at the players individually, it seems that way. But you have to remember they will play each other at the season 3 so in affect, they will eliminate each other. Players that do well in season 3 finals will move up. But there is only so many people that can do well. Plus people already in will also take points away. That is why the numbers don't lie.
It depends a lot on the bracket pairings in WCS AM, S3 finals group draws
If they are all spread out in the brackets/groups the worse it is for Naniwa/Revival/Mvp/Duckdeok
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On October 07 2013 13:09 Die4Ever wrote:You guys are driving me crazy, I'm a big Mvp fan lol. So I ran a simulation just for Mvp with 500k samples and a very exhaustive search on the game changers. This was run with the help of aligulac. Sorry duckdeok, but I'd like you to lose in the ro16 of the season finals lol. Mvp IM, 486285/500000, started with 3400 WCS points, 97.257%+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HuK gets 8th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------HerO Liquid gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 0.21% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 80.24%.
-------------------------------------------Sen gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HerO Liquid gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 0.12% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 80.50%.
-------------------------------------------Genius gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 0.44% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 81.71%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HerO Liquid gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Polt gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 0.97% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 81.95%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 2nd place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------MacSed gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 0.41% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 85.02%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 8th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------HerO Liquid gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Polt gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 4th place in Korea Placement
This happens 0.14% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 85.12%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HerO Liquid gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 2.87% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 85.84%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 2nd place in America Placement
This happens 0.75% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 86.08%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HerO Liquid gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Polt gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 4th place in Korea Placement
This happens 0.45% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 86.16%.
-------------------------------------------soO gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 1st place in America Premier
This happens 0.29% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 86.93%.
-------------------------------------------duckdeok gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Korea Placement
This happens 7.32% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 88.53%.
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Jaedong gets 4th place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 4th place in America Premier
This happens 0.53% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 87.18%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Heart gets 4th place in America Placement
This happens 0.90% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 87.42%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Heart gets 4th place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------Heart gets 8th place in America Premier
This happens 0.20% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 87.98%.
-------------------------------------------soO gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 0.81% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 88.16%.
-------------------------------------------duckdeok gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------TaeJa gets 4th place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------PartinG gets 2nd place in Korea Placement
This happens 0.54% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 88.19%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 6.80% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 89.39%.
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 7.11% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 89.47%.
-------------------------------------------soO gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 0.37% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 88.30%.
-------------------------------------------soO gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 2nd place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Soulkey WJS gets 4th place in Korea Premier
This happens 0.43% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 88.45%.
-------------------------------------------Genius gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Heart gets 4th place in America Placement
This happens 0.44% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 88.47%.
-------------------------------------------HuK gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HuK gets 8th place in America Premier
This happens 0.14% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 88.61%.
-------------------------------------------soO gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------MacSed gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 2nd place in America Premier
This happens 0.25% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 88.77%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 1.30% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 89.27%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 2nd place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------MacSed gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 8th place in America Premier
This happens 0.10% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 89.10%.
-------------------------------------------Sen gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HerO Liquid gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 1.00% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 89.47%.
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 3.55% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 89.98%.
-------------------------------------------Apocalypse gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 0.11% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 89.56%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Heart gets 4th place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------Oz gets 8th place in America Premier
This happens 0.24% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 89.62%.
-------------------------------------------Oz gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Oz gets 1st place in America Premier
This happens 0.22% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 89.74%.
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 4th place in America Premier
This happens 4.94% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 90.51%.
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Sen gets 4th place in America Placement
This happens 0.77% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 89.94%.
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 2nd place in America Placement
This happens 0.22% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 89.87%.
-------------------------------------------soO gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 2nd place in America Premier
This happens 0.42% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 89.93%.
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 8th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------MacSed gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Oz gets 8th place in America Premier
This happens 0.18% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 90.08%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Soulkey WJS gets 4th place in Korea Premier
This happens 2.00% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 90.43%.
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 8th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 4th place in America Premier
This happens 1.79% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 90.52%.
-------------------------------------------Genius gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 3.29% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 90.74%.
-------------------------------------------MC gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 2nd place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------jjakji gets 2nd place in Korea Placement
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Korea Placement
-------------------------------------------soO gets 4th place in Korea Premier
This happens 0.47% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 90.42%.
-------------------------------------------duckdeok gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 8th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------TaeJa gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Trap gets 4th place in Korea Placement
This happens 0.57% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 90.45%.
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 1st place in America Premier
This happens 0.32% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 90.43%.
-------------------------------------------Dear STX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 3.05% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 90.85%.
-------------------------------------------duckdeok gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HerO Liquid gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 11.24% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.83%.
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 2nd place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------Heart gets 4th place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------Heart gets 8th place in America Premier
This happens 0.32% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 90.51%.
-------------------------------------------Oz gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 0.77% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 90.92%.
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 0.32% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 90.86%.
-------------------------------------------duckdeok gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------PartinG gets 2nd place in Korea Placement
This happens 6.38% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.67%.
-------------------------------------------soO gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 3.12% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.37%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Polt gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 2.01% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.23%.
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------TaeJa gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 0.65% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.06%.
-------------------------------------------Heart gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 0.17% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.05%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 0.18% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.12%.
-------------------------------------------soO gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 2nd place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Polt gets 1st place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Korea Placement
This happens 0.33% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.14%.
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Polt gets 4th place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------Soulkey WJS gets 4th place in Korea Premier
This happens 0.51% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.19%.
-------------------------------------------Dear STX gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 0.34% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.18%.
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 6.10% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.09%.
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Polt gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 4.31% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.96%.
-------------------------------------------duckdeok gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Hack gets 8th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------MacSed gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------HerO Liquid gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 2.19% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.73%.
-------------------------------------------Jaedong gets 4th place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------Apocalypse gets 8th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 4th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Soulkey WJS gets 4th place in Korea Premier
This happens 0.26% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.64%.
-------------------------------------------CranK Axiom gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 0.19% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.67%.
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 2nd place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------jjakji gets 2nd place in Korea Placement
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Korea Placement
-------------------------------------------soO gets 4th place in Korea Premier
This happens 0.88% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.82%.
-------------------------------------------soO gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 8th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Oz gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------jjakji gets 2nd place in Korea Placement
This happens 0.38% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.79%.
-------------------------------------------soO gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Soulkey WJS gets 4th place in Korea Premier
This happens 0.52% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.86%.
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Polt gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Soulkey WJS gets 4th place in Korea Premier
This happens 1.41% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.99%.
-------------------------------------------Sen gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 2.36% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.12%.
-------------------------------------------MC gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------duckdeok gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------TaeJa gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Korea Placement
This happens 0.18% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.87%.
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------MacSed gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Oz gets 8th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Soulkey WJS gets 4th place in Korea Premier
This happens 0.70% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.98%.
-------------------------------------------NesTea gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 0.58% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.97%.
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 1st place in America Premier
This happens 5.52% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.53%.
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 8th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------CranK Axiom gets 8th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 2nd place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------soO gets 1st place in Korea Premier
This happens 0.10% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.96%.
-------------------------------------------MC gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Apocalypse gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 2nd place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------jjakji gets 2nd place in Korea Placement
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Korea Placement
-------------------------------------------soO gets 4th place in Korea Premier
This happens 0.28% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 91.99%.
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 8th place in America Premier
This happens 1.85% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.18%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 5.45% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.58%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------TaeJa gets 1st place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Polt gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 0.45% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.06%.
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------MacSed gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 4th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Soulkey WJS gets 4th place in Korea Premier
This happens 0.26% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.06%.
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Heart gets 8th place in America Premier
This happens 3.06% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.40%.
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 1st place in America Premier
This happens 15.13% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 93.42%.
-------------------------------------------HuK gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 0.41% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.13%.
-------------------------------------------duckdeok gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 26.70% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 94.08%.
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 8th place in America Premier
This happens 3.55% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.51%.
-------------------------------------------Oz gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 0.12% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.18%.
-------------------------------------------duckdeok gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Hack gets 8th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------HerO Liquid gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 4.18% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.69%.
-------------------------------------------soO gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 8th place in America Premier
This happens 0.21% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.38%.
-------------------------------------------MacSed gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 0.16% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.40%.
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 2nd place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------TaeJa gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 3.39% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.75%.
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Korea Placement
This happens 27.56% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 94.33%.
-------------------------------------------PartinG gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 2nd place in America Placement
This happens 0.22% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.53%.
-------------------------------------------duckdeok gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 55.09% of the time. When it does, it increases Mvp IM's chances to 99.33%.
-------------------------------------------Hack gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Trap gets 4th place in Korea Placement
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Korea Placement
This happens 15.43% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 93.78%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Hack gets 8th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Polt gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 0.55% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.61%.
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 1.77% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.76%.
-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Maru Prime gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Hack gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 0.72% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.66%.
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 1st place in IEM
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 8th place in America Premier
This happens 0.17% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.70%.
-------------------------------------------duckdeok gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Polt gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 3.69% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 93.05%.
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 0.76% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.78%.
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Jaedong gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 8th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 4th place in America Premier
This happens 0.16% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.73%.
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 4th place in Korea Placement
This happens 1.29% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.85%.
-------------------------------------------soO gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Heart gets 4th place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------Apocalypse gets 2nd place in America Placement
This happens 0.22% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.78%.
-------------------------------------------Sen gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 0.34% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.81%.
-------------------------------------------Rain SKT1 gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Oz gets 4th place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------CranK Axiom gets 8th place in America Premier
This happens 0.25% of the time. When it does, it decreases Mvp IM's chances to 92.83%.
Nice work. i dont see MVP losing this.
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Mvp still has ok chance, but it is not 97% for sure. Rain WILL pass him 100%. Hyun and Scarlett have a very decent chance to pass him. DD will pass him if he has an easy group. If Soo wins code S, he will pass him 2. I'd say Mvp chance is 50/50, in the sense that it is impossible to say which is more likely, Mvp is qualified or not. Mvp can only go to Blizzcon if no more than 3 players pass him.
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On October 07 2013 11:26 Dodgin wrote:
If you look beyond just the numbers It almost seems sort of likely, Dear gets 1st or 2nd in GSL then does okay in season finals, he passes Mvp. duckdeok wins one round he passes Mvp. Scarlett could also potentially pass Mvp. Soo actually has a pretty good chance at passing Mvp. If Rain makes the season finals he could pass him as well. Hell even Hyun could.
Of course Naniwa and Revival should be much more scared.
Dear? Common Dodgin look closer at those points.
Even if Dear wins GSL and then gets 3rd or 4th at Season Finals he still would only have 3250 points.
soO has a good chance? soO could get 2nd in GSL and gets 3rd/4th at Season Finals he still would only have 3300 points.
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If Mvp isn't qualified, it's the fact that Jim couldn't get the visa to seasons 2 final that screws him over : it allowed for Alive to rack up precious free WCS points.And Hyun diligent effort going to every tournament possible to farm WCS points might have paid off. Look at the non-WCS events WCS points of this guy.
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On October 07 2013 14:24 painkilla wrote:
Mvp still has ok chance, but it is not 97% for sure. Rain WILL pass him 100%. Hyun and Scarlett have a very decent chance to pass him. DD will pass him if he has an easy group. If Soo wins code S, he will pass him 2. I'd say Mvp chance is 50/50, in the sense that it is impossible to say which is more likely, Mvp is qualified or not. Mvp can only go to Blizzcon if no more than 3 players pass him.
you don realize that all that you mentioned need to occur spontaneously to disqualify MVP, and that chance is 3%. And Rain's chance is surely not 100% from any simulation through any human or computer mind.
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On October 07 2013 14:24 painkilla wrote:
Mvp still has ok chance, but it is not 97% for sure. Rain WILL pass him 100%. Hyun and Scarlett have a very decent chance to pass him. DD will pass him if he has an easy group. If Soo wins code S, he will pass him 2. I'd say Mvp chance is 50/50, in the sense that it is impossible to say which is more likely, Mvp is qualified or not. Mvp can only go to Blizzcon if no more than 3 players pass him.
Not sure how DD will get an easy group.
Look at the people that will potentially be there.
The 4 players that finished ahead of him in EU. Dear Maru SoO Soulkey + one of (Rain, Parting, Trap, Jjakji).
And from AM, 6 players from the likes of Taeja, HerO, Polt, JD, Scarlett, HyuN, etc.
DD would be the underdog vs majority of the players.
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EPT
