• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 21:10
CEST 03:10
KST 10:10
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
[ASL21] Ro24 Preview Pt2: News Flash8[ASL21] Ro24 Preview Pt1: New Chaos0Team Liquid Map Contest #22 - Presented by Monster Energy16ByuL: The Forgotten Master of ZvT30Behind the Blue - Team Liquid History Book20
Community News
Weekly Cups (March 23-29): herO takes triple6Aligulac acquired by REPLAYMAN.com/Stego Research8Weekly Cups (March 16-22): herO doubles, Cure surprises3Blizzard Classic Cup @ BlizzCon 2026 - $100k prize pool49Weekly Cups (March 9-15): herO, Clem, ByuN win4
StarCraft 2
General
What mix of new & old maps do you want in the next ladder pool? (SC2) Team Liquid Map Contest #22 - Presented by Monster Energy Aligulac acquired by REPLAYMAN.com/Stego Research Weekly Cups (March 23-29): herO takes triple herO wins SC2 All-Star Invitational
Tourneys
RSL Season 4 announced for March-April Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament StarCraft Evolution League (SC Evo Biweekly) WardiTV Mondays World University TeamLeague (500$+) | Signups Open
Strategy
Custom Maps
[M] (2) Frigid Storage Publishing has been re-enabled! [Feb 24th 2026]
External Content
Mutation # 519 Inner Power The PondCast: SC2 News & Results Mutation # 518 Radiation Zone Mutation # 517 Distant Threat
Brood War
General
ASL21 General Discussion Gypsy to Korea How Can I Add Timer & APM Count? A cwal.gg Extension - Easily keep track of anyone BGH Auto Balance -> http://bghmmr.eu/
Tourneys
[ASL21] Ro24 Group F [ASL21] Ro24 Group E Azhi's Colosseum - Foreign KCM Escore Tournament StarCraft Season 2
Strategy
Fighting Spirit mining rates What's the deal with APM & what's its true value Simple Questions, Simple Answers
Other Games
General Games
Nintendo Switch Thread Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread Starcraft Tabletop Miniature Game General RTS Discussion Thread Darkest Dungeon
Dota 2
The Story of Wings Gaming Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
G2 just beat GenG in First stand
Heroes of the Storm
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Deck construction bug Heroes of StarCraft mini-set
TL Mafia
Mafia Game Mode Feedback/Ideas TL Mafia Community Thread Five o'clock TL Mafia
Community
General
US Politics Mega-thread Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine Canadian Politics Mega-thread The Games Industry And ATVI European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread
Fan Clubs
The IdrA Fan Club
Media & Entertainment
[Manga] One Piece Movie Discussion! [Req][Books] Good Fantasy/SciFi books
Sports
2024 - 2026 Football Thread Formula 1 Discussion Cricket [SPORT] Tokyo Olympics 2021 Thread General nutrition recommendations
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
[G] How to Block Livestream Ads
TL Community
The Automated Ban List
Blogs
Funny Nicknames
LUCKY_NOOB
Money Laundering In Video Ga…
TrAiDoS
Iranian anarchists: organize…
XenOsky
FS++
Kraekkling
Shocked by a laser…
Spydermine0240
ASL S21 English Commentary…
namkraft
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 7878 users

Blizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 24

Forum Index > SC2 General
1549 CommentsPost a Reply
Prev 1 22 23 24 25 26 78 Next
vthree
Profile Joined November 2011
Hong Kong8039 Posts
October 07 2013 05:48 GMT
#461
On October 07 2013 14:24 painkilla wrote:
Mvp still has ok chance, but it is not 97% for sure. Rain WILL pass him 100%. Hyun and Scarlett have a very decent chance to pass him. DD will pass him if he has an easy group. If Soo wins code S, he will pass him 2. I'd say Mvp chance is 50/50, in the sense that it is impossible to say which is more likely, Mvp is qualified or not. Mvp can only go to Blizzcon if no more than 3 players pass him.


Wait. Are you adding 1500 points to Soo's CURRENT total (2050) on the wcs ranking table. You do realize that the 750 for his top 4 finish in KR is already counted, right? So even if he wins KR, he would only get 750 more. The 500 points for Ro16 Global is already counted as well...
painkilla
Profile Joined June 2013
United States695 Posts
October 07 2013 06:12 GMT
#462
On October 07 2013 14:48 vthree wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 07 2013 14:24 painkilla wrote:
Mvp still has ok chance, but it is not 97% for sure. Rain WILL pass him 100%. Hyun and Scarlett have a very decent chance to pass him. DD will pass him if he has an easy group. If Soo wins code S, he will pass him 2. I'd say Mvp chance is 50/50, in the sense that it is impossible to say which is more likely, Mvp is qualified or not. Mvp can only go to Blizzcon if no more than 3 players pass him.


Wait. Are you adding 1500 points to Soo's CURRENT total (2050) on the wcs ranking table. You do realize that the 750 for his top 4 finish in KR is already counted, right? So even if he wins KR, he would only get 750 more. The 500 points for Ro16 Global is already counted as well...


Actually I was. So his chance looks a bit better now. NA players seem more of a thread now because qualifying for seansonal finals is a huge boost.
Supernova | TY | Polt | Innovation | forGG | Lucifron | Happy
UberNuB
Profile Joined December 2010
United States365 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-07 06:24:19
October 07 2013 06:22 GMT
#463
Maybe it has been explained (I will look in a second) or maybe it is just old values, but I don't see how/why somebody like Rain has any chance if he can't get more points and is currently outside the top 16.

EDIT Just realized Korea hasn't played the 5th place match yet and Rain could still make the season finals.
the absence of evidence, is not the evidence of absence.
Tamagoshi
Profile Joined September 2012
Brazil981 Posts
October 07 2013 06:24 GMT
#464
On October 07 2013 15:22 UberNuB wrote:
Maybe it has been explained (I will look in a second) or maybe it is just old values, but I don't see how/why somebody like Rain has any chance if he can't get more points and is currently outside the top 16.

If he wins the placement matches he will go to season finals
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17727 Posts
October 07 2013 06:24 GMT
#465
On October 07 2013 15:22 UberNuB wrote:
Maybe it has been explained (I will look in a second) or maybe it is just old values, but I don't see how/why somebody like Rain has any chance if he can't get more points and is currently outside the top 16.

He still has the consolation matches. If he gets 5th place then he gets to go to the season finals in canada, where there will be many points to earn.

http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2013_WCS_Season_3_Korea_GSL/Premier#Placement_Matches
"Expert" mods4ever.com
HonorZ
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
France858 Posts
October 07 2013 07:08 GMT
#466
MMA is in 100% !

Fuck yeah !!!
"If you don't drop sweat today you'll drop tears tomorrow"
Kheve
Profile Joined May 2013
323 Posts
October 07 2013 07:38 GMT
#467
The real contenders now are just Scarlett, Rain, Naniwa, ForGG, Soo, Vortix. Only 2 will pull thru.

Scarlett is a nearly 100% so long as she makes top4 in wcs America.

Rain is nearly 100% so long as he makes 5th place in wcs Korea.

Naniwa and ForGG must pray the above 2 does not happen AND get a placement in iem new york that brings their total above revival's 3025 to try sneak in one of the final spots.
For Naniwa is jes a simple top4 in iem.
ForGG nothing less than a win with 750 points will suffice.

The other season 3 finalist have a tiny tiny chance to squeeze in on their merit, gather another 1250 points (750 for 1st place, 500 more for ro8 season3 finals).

Sadly everyones chance depends on Rain and Scarlett failing to make it to the season 3 finals. If Rain and scarlett both make it to season 3 finals, everyone else is nearly 100% out.
yuliuswin
Profile Joined January 2012
Indonesia24 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-07 08:12:58
October 07 2013 08:06 GMT
#468
Praying for IMMVP... hahaha

let us see how lucky IMMVP is to qualify for Blizzcon..

really amazing to see so many IMMVP fans in this forum..
slowbacontron
Profile Joined October 2012
United States7722 Posts
October 07 2013 08:18 GMT
#469
Honestly, it's not really worth worrying about Mvp's chances of going to Blizzcon. 3% is so little to worry about. Not even Sjow vs. Life was 3%
jjakji fan
Daswollvieh
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
5553 Posts
October 07 2013 08:46 GMT
#470
P and Z gotta step up their game.
playnice
Profile Joined October 2011
Malaysia302 Posts
October 07 2013 08:56 GMT
#471
Mvp should have taken WCS EU more seriously after his championship.
JustPassingBy
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
10776 Posts
October 07 2013 08:58 GMT
#472
Ouch, even winning IEM won't secure the spot for ForGG... ;;
slowbacontron
Profile Joined October 2012
United States7722 Posts
October 07 2013 08:59 GMT
#473
Lol, it's like a mini-cataclysm all on its own WhAt If MvP dOeSn'T mAkE bLiZzCoN????!?!?!?

We'll see
jjakji fan
slowbacontron
Profile Joined October 2012
United States7722 Posts
October 07 2013 09:00 GMT
#474
On October 07 2013 17:58 JustPassingBy wrote:
Ouch, even winning IEM won't secure the spot for ForGG... ;;

Stumbled at the last step which is season 3 I guess D: He's getting better and better though, he'll find his stride soon!
jjakji fan
Assirra
Profile Joined August 2010
Belgium4169 Posts
October 07 2013 09:02 GMT
#475
On October 07 2013 17:56 playnice wrote:
Mvp should have taken WCS EU more seriously after his championship.

Who saids he didn't? We never know what state he is in thanks to his injury. The last time we heard about it is the fact that he needs to listen to his mouseclicks to make sure he actually clicks at all.
I't just painful to read and i keep wishing he would take a treatment already
Fjodorov
Profile Joined December 2011
5007 Posts
October 07 2013 09:05 GMT
#476
Naniwa still has a chance but only if all the stars align :< The system is what it is but his run in MLG spring championship (3/4th place) was worth more than 300 points imo.
Daswollvieh
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
5553 Posts
October 07 2013 09:10 GMT
#477
That makes Scarlett the #1 foreigner by sheer attendance of Blizzcon.
Dragoonstorm7
Profile Joined December 2012
United States599 Posts
October 07 2013 09:13 GMT
#478
On October 07 2013 18:05 Fjodorov wrote:
Naniwa still has a chance but only if all the stars align :< The system is what it is but his run in MLG spring championship (3/4th place) was worth more than 300 points imo.

His BM at that same tourney was worth less than 300 imo.
oblivion awaits- dark archon (aka best unit ever)
liberate71
Profile Joined October 2011
Australia10252 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-07 09:17:31
October 07 2013 09:14 GMT
#479
On October 07 2013 18:05 Fjodorov wrote:
Naniwa still has a chance but only if all the stars align :< The system is what it is but his run in MLG spring championship (3/4th place) was worth more than 300 points imo.


If Rain and Scarlett get in, its definitely a confirmed solid lineup in the top 16... with maybe the exception of duckdeok as he was almost an unknown before his S2 win. I'd say he has a lot more fans now though, the guy is always smiling (just LOOK at him in the cover page for MMA's S3 win.. he's grinning more than ANYONE hahahaha)

That'd also make it 6 AM, 6 KR and 4 EU... dat murica strength
Minelord Stimfestor, also known as karma.
liberate71
Profile Joined October 2011
Australia10252 Posts
October 07 2013 09:14 GMT
#480
On October 07 2013 18:13 Dragoonstorm7 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 07 2013 18:05 Fjodorov wrote:
Naniwa still has a chance but only if all the stars align :< The system is what it is but his run in MLG spring championship (3/4th place) was worth more than 300 points imo.

His BM at that same tourney was worth less than 300 imo.


Was that where he smack-talked Polt?
Minelord Stimfestor, also known as karma.
Prev 1 22 23 24 25 26 78 Next
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
The PiG Daily
21:00
Best Games of SC
Reynor vs Zoun
SHIN vs ByuN
herO vs sOs
Maru vs SHIN
Clem vs Bunny
PiGStarcraft601
LiquipediaDiscussion
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
PiGStarcraft601
SpeCial 145
RuFF_SC2 114
Ketroc 21
StarCraft: Brood War
Backho 171
firebathero 171
ggaemo 34
910 34
Dota 2
monkeys_forever992
NeuroSwarm81
Counter-Strike
taco 689
Other Games
summit1g9958
tarik_tv4535
shahzam362
C9.Mang0252
Fuzer 92
ViBE87
Mew2King61
Organizations
Other Games
gamesdonequick672
BasetradeTV91
StarCraft 2
Blizzard YouTube
StarCraft: Brood War
BSLTrovo
sctven
[ Show 16 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• Hupsaiya 73
• musti20045 38
• HeavenSC 22
• davetesta16
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
• LaughNgamezSOOP
• Migwel
• sooper7s
StarCraft: Brood War
• HerbMon 28
• BSLYoutube
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
League of Legends
• Stunt101
Upcoming Events
RSL Revival
8h 50m
Maru vs MaxPax
BSL
17h 50m
RSL Revival
1d 5h
Cure vs Rogue
uThermal 2v2 Circuit
1d 12h
BSL
1d 17h
Afreeca Starleague
2 days
Wardi Open
2 days
Replay Cast
2 days
Sparkling Tuna Cup
3 days
Kung Fu Cup
4 days
[ Show More ]
The PondCast
5 days
Replay Cast
5 days
Replay Cast
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

Escore Tournament S2: W1
WardiTV Winter 2026
NationLESS Cup

Ongoing

BSL Season 22
CSL Elite League 2026
ASL Season 21
CSL Season 20: Qualifier 2
StarCraft2 Community Team League 2026 Spring
RSL Revival: Season 4
Nations Cup 2026
PGL Bucharest 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 1
BLAST Open Spring 2026
ESL Pro League S23 Finals
ESL Pro League S23 Stage 1&2
PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026
IEM Kraków 2026
BLAST Bounty Winter 2026

Upcoming

CSL 2026 SPRING (S20)
IPSL Spring 2026
Acropolis #4
BSL 22 Non-Korean Championship
CSLAN 4
Kung Fu Cup 2026 Grand Finals
HSC XXIX
uThermal 2v2 2026 Main Event
IEM Cologne Major 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 2
CS Asia Championships 2026
Asian Champions League 2026
IEM Atlanta 2026
PGL Astana 2026
BLAST Rivals Spring 2026
CCT Season 3 Global Finals
IEM Rio 2026
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2026 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.