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Blizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 24

Forum Index > SC2 General
1549 CommentsPost a Reply
Prev 1 22 23 24 25 26 78 Next
vthree
Profile Joined November 2011
Hong Kong8039 Posts
October 07 2013 05:48 GMT
#461
On October 07 2013 14:24 painkilla wrote:
Mvp still has ok chance, but it is not 97% for sure. Rain WILL pass him 100%. Hyun and Scarlett have a very decent chance to pass him. DD will pass him if he has an easy group. If Soo wins code S, he will pass him 2. I'd say Mvp chance is 50/50, in the sense that it is impossible to say which is more likely, Mvp is qualified or not. Mvp can only go to Blizzcon if no more than 3 players pass him.


Wait. Are you adding 1500 points to Soo's CURRENT total (2050) on the wcs ranking table. You do realize that the 750 for his top 4 finish in KR is already counted, right? So even if he wins KR, he would only get 750 more. The 500 points for Ro16 Global is already counted as well...
painkilla
Profile Joined June 2013
United States695 Posts
October 07 2013 06:12 GMT
#462
On October 07 2013 14:48 vthree wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 07 2013 14:24 painkilla wrote:
Mvp still has ok chance, but it is not 97% for sure. Rain WILL pass him 100%. Hyun and Scarlett have a very decent chance to pass him. DD will pass him if he has an easy group. If Soo wins code S, he will pass him 2. I'd say Mvp chance is 50/50, in the sense that it is impossible to say which is more likely, Mvp is qualified or not. Mvp can only go to Blizzcon if no more than 3 players pass him.


Wait. Are you adding 1500 points to Soo's CURRENT total (2050) on the wcs ranking table. You do realize that the 750 for his top 4 finish in KR is already counted, right? So even if he wins KR, he would only get 750 more. The 500 points for Ro16 Global is already counted as well...


Actually I was. So his chance looks a bit better now. NA players seem more of a thread now because qualifying for seansonal finals is a huge boost.
Supernova | TY | Polt | Innovation | forGG | Lucifron | Happy
UberNuB
Profile Joined December 2010
United States365 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-07 06:24:19
October 07 2013 06:22 GMT
#463
Maybe it has been explained (I will look in a second) or maybe it is just old values, but I don't see how/why somebody like Rain has any chance if he can't get more points and is currently outside the top 16.

EDIT Just realized Korea hasn't played the 5th place match yet and Rain could still make the season finals.
the absence of evidence, is not the evidence of absence.
Tamagoshi
Profile Joined September 2012
Brazil981 Posts
October 07 2013 06:24 GMT
#464
On October 07 2013 15:22 UberNuB wrote:
Maybe it has been explained (I will look in a second) or maybe it is just old values, but I don't see how/why somebody like Rain has any chance if he can't get more points and is currently outside the top 16.

If he wins the placement matches he will go to season finals
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17738 Posts
October 07 2013 06:24 GMT
#465
On October 07 2013 15:22 UberNuB wrote:
Maybe it has been explained (I will look in a second) or maybe it is just old values, but I don't see how/why somebody like Rain has any chance if he can't get more points and is currently outside the top 16.

He still has the consolation matches. If he gets 5th place then he gets to go to the season finals in canada, where there will be many points to earn.

http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2013_WCS_Season_3_Korea_GSL/Premier#Placement_Matches
"Expert" mods4ever.com
HonorZ
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
France858 Posts
October 07 2013 07:08 GMT
#466
MMA is in 100% !

Fuck yeah !!!
"If you don't drop sweat today you'll drop tears tomorrow"
Kheve
Profile Joined May 2013
323 Posts
October 07 2013 07:38 GMT
#467
The real contenders now are just Scarlett, Rain, Naniwa, ForGG, Soo, Vortix. Only 2 will pull thru.

Scarlett is a nearly 100% so long as she makes top4 in wcs America.

Rain is nearly 100% so long as he makes 5th place in wcs Korea.

Naniwa and ForGG must pray the above 2 does not happen AND get a placement in iem new york that brings their total above revival's 3025 to try sneak in one of the final spots.
For Naniwa is jes a simple top4 in iem.
ForGG nothing less than a win with 750 points will suffice.

The other season 3 finalist have a tiny tiny chance to squeeze in on their merit, gather another 1250 points (750 for 1st place, 500 more for ro8 season3 finals).

Sadly everyones chance depends on Rain and Scarlett failing to make it to the season 3 finals. If Rain and scarlett both make it to season 3 finals, everyone else is nearly 100% out.
yuliuswin
Profile Joined January 2012
Indonesia24 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-07 08:12:58
October 07 2013 08:06 GMT
#468
Praying for IMMVP... hahaha

let us see how lucky IMMVP is to qualify for Blizzcon..

really amazing to see so many IMMVP fans in this forum..
slowbacontron
Profile Joined October 2012
United States7722 Posts
October 07 2013 08:18 GMT
#469
Honestly, it's not really worth worrying about Mvp's chances of going to Blizzcon. 3% is so little to worry about. Not even Sjow vs. Life was 3%
jjakji fan
Daswollvieh
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
5553 Posts
October 07 2013 08:46 GMT
#470
P and Z gotta step up their game.
playnice
Profile Joined October 2011
Malaysia302 Posts
October 07 2013 08:56 GMT
#471
Mvp should have taken WCS EU more seriously after his championship.
JustPassingBy
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
10776 Posts
October 07 2013 08:58 GMT
#472
Ouch, even winning IEM won't secure the spot for ForGG... ;;
slowbacontron
Profile Joined October 2012
United States7722 Posts
October 07 2013 08:59 GMT
#473
Lol, it's like a mini-cataclysm all on its own WhAt If MvP dOeSn'T mAkE bLiZzCoN????!?!?!?

We'll see
jjakji fan
slowbacontron
Profile Joined October 2012
United States7722 Posts
October 07 2013 09:00 GMT
#474
On October 07 2013 17:58 JustPassingBy wrote:
Ouch, even winning IEM won't secure the spot for ForGG... ;;

Stumbled at the last step which is season 3 I guess D: He's getting better and better though, he'll find his stride soon!
jjakji fan
Assirra
Profile Joined August 2010
Belgium4169 Posts
October 07 2013 09:02 GMT
#475
On October 07 2013 17:56 playnice wrote:
Mvp should have taken WCS EU more seriously after his championship.

Who saids he didn't? We never know what state he is in thanks to his injury. The last time we heard about it is the fact that he needs to listen to his mouseclicks to make sure he actually clicks at all.
I't just painful to read and i keep wishing he would take a treatment already
Fjodorov
Profile Joined December 2011
5007 Posts
October 07 2013 09:05 GMT
#476
Naniwa still has a chance but only if all the stars align :< The system is what it is but his run in MLG spring championship (3/4th place) was worth more than 300 points imo.
Daswollvieh
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
5553 Posts
October 07 2013 09:10 GMT
#477
That makes Scarlett the #1 foreigner by sheer attendance of Blizzcon.
Dragoonstorm7
Profile Joined December 2012
United States599 Posts
October 07 2013 09:13 GMT
#478
On October 07 2013 18:05 Fjodorov wrote:
Naniwa still has a chance but only if all the stars align :< The system is what it is but his run in MLG spring championship (3/4th place) was worth more than 300 points imo.

His BM at that same tourney was worth less than 300 imo.
oblivion awaits- dark archon (aka best unit ever)
liberate71
Profile Joined October 2011
Australia10252 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-07 09:17:31
October 07 2013 09:14 GMT
#479
On October 07 2013 18:05 Fjodorov wrote:
Naniwa still has a chance but only if all the stars align :< The system is what it is but his run in MLG spring championship (3/4th place) was worth more than 300 points imo.


If Rain and Scarlett get in, its definitely a confirmed solid lineup in the top 16... with maybe the exception of duckdeok as he was almost an unknown before his S2 win. I'd say he has a lot more fans now though, the guy is always smiling (just LOOK at him in the cover page for MMA's S3 win.. he's grinning more than ANYONE hahahaha)

That'd also make it 6 AM, 6 KR and 4 EU... dat murica strength
Minelord Stimfestor, also known as karma.
liberate71
Profile Joined October 2011
Australia10252 Posts
October 07 2013 09:14 GMT
#480
On October 07 2013 18:13 Dragoonstorm7 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 07 2013 18:05 Fjodorov wrote:
Naniwa still has a chance but only if all the stars align :< The system is what it is but his run in MLG spring championship (3/4th place) was worth more than 300 points imo.

His BM at that same tourney was worth less than 300 imo.


Was that where he smack-talked Polt?
Minelord Stimfestor, also known as karma.
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