Blizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 22

On October 07 2013 04:22 lolfail9001 wrote:

Bear in mind, that this is randomized simulation.

On October 07 2013 04:20 Die4Ever wrote:

I'm curious about this as well, going to investigate.

On October 07 2013 04:23 fuzzylogic44 wrote:
Let's say Korea goes top 5

Soulkey
Maru
Dear
soO
PartinG


America goes top 6

Polt
Taeja
Jaedong
HerO
Hack
Macsed

And season finals goes top 8

Soulkey
MMA
MC
Maru
duckdeok
HerO
Jaedong
Polt

That would I think guarantee Naniwa being safe, assuming forGG or TLO don't win (or forGG second) IEM and Naniwa get 16th

On October 07 2013 04:26 lolfail9001 wrote:

That raises question of chances of this happening. For one, Polt, Hack and Macsed may bomb out before getting there (Polt is back to studies, so there is a chance).

On October 07 2013 04:26 Die4Ever wrote:

Oh it's because Naniwa won in challenger league. Hmm I really don't want to program in the challenger leagues lol.

On October 07 2013 04:28 fuzzylogic44 wrote:


that was just random picks there are many other scenarios that would be the same. It just requires a certain few players not doing too well.

And anyway it's not 0%

On October 07 2013 04:29 fuzzylogic44 wrote:


Can you just add 75 points to his baseline?

On October 07 2013 04:30 Die4Ever wrote:

Well that would be easy, I could just manually give the points to the players in challenger league who actually have a chance <100% and >0% (in reality).

I think it's just sOs, aLive, Mvp, Revival (but these matches haven't been played yet), Naniwa, ForGG. Are there any others?
Only sOs and Naniwa have already earned more than the 25 minimum points, so those are the only 2 I need to change?

On October 07 2013 04:38 fuzzylogic44 wrote:


Yeah, sOs 50, Naniwa 100

TLO also along with the others for unplayed matches

On October 07 2013 04:33 Prog455 wrote:
I think that Hyun is Naniwas biggest obstacle. If Hyun makes it to top 6 in NA and finishes just a single round later than Naniwa at IEM, he will take Naniwas spot.

On October 07 2013 04:45 Die4Ever wrote:
So I ran a quick test with Naniwa getting his 100 points for challenger, and getting the 150 points for IEM getting 3rd place in his ro16 group, without aligulac, he has a 1.63% chance. I'm glad to know it wasn't a huge difference lol. Thanks for the catch though, gonna do a new full update.

On October 07 2013 04:47 Die4Ever wrote:
If TLO wins his challenger league bracket and gets the full 100 points, without aligulac, his chances are 0.118%

On October 07 2013 04:47 Die4Ever wrote:
If TLO wins his challenger league bracket and gets the full 100 points, without aligulac, his chances are 0.118%

On October 07 2013 04:52 Dragoonstorm7 wrote:

TLO already lost his challenger league bracket.
He's still in for the group stage, but thats only 50 points possible.
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2013_WCS_Season_3_Europe/Challenger#Bracket_Stage