EPTBlizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 21
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
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Baroninthetree
United States473 Posts
Thank you. Nice Work! | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17725 Posts
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Prog455
Denmark970 Posts
On October 06 2013 04:35 painkilla wrote: So it Mvp qualifies for Blizzcon, it will be by the skin of his teeth. It is quite unlikely that Mvp won't be going to Blizzcon. While i doubt that there is 99% chance that he will be going, it would require a scenario such as: Sen v. Hyun WCS NA finals + Dear winning WCS KR AND Sen, Hyun and Dear finish top 3 in WCS S3. This is one of the most likely scenarios where Mvp isen't going to Blizzcon. | ||
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Too_MuchZerg
Finland2818 Posts
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fuzzylogic44
Canada2633 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17725 Posts
On October 07 2013 04:07 fuzzylogic44 wrote: How is it that if Naniwa finishes 16th at IEM he has 0% chance? He's rank 16 right now, there must be some chance that no one behind him catches up.. there is a bit of a gap between him and anyone still in the running behind him. Did you factor in the points people will be getting in the future? There are already 9 players confirmed to the season finals. | ||
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Boucot
France15997 Posts
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lystier
China877 Posts
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fuzzylogic44
Canada2633 Posts
On October 07 2013 04:08 Die4Ever wrote: Did you factor in the points people will be getting in the future? There are already 9 players confirmed to the season finals. Yes the Liquipedia standings include those http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2013_StarCraft_II_World_Championship_Series/Standings If Rain doesn't win the placement matches, and Scarlett, VortiX, soO and Hyun don't win much from here on, he would make it, barring a Season 3 finals win from some of the stragglers like Dear, Oz etc. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17725 Posts
On October 07 2013 04:11 fuzzylogic44 wrote: Yes the Liquipedia standings include those http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2013_StarCraft_II_World_Championship_Series/Standings Yea but not all of the players will be making the minimum points, many of them will make much more. | ||
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fuzzylogic44
Canada2633 Posts
On October 07 2013 04:13 Die4Ever wrote: Yea but not all of the players will be making the minimum points, many of them will make much more. Is that certain? Can't most of the points go to people ahead of Naniwa already? | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17725 Posts
On October 07 2013 04:11 fuzzylogic44 wrote: Yes the Liquipedia standings include those http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2013_StarCraft_II_World_Championship_Series/Standings If Rain doesn't win the placement matches, and Scarlett, VortiX, soO and Hyun don't win much from here on, he would make it, barring a Season 3 finals win from some of the stragglers like Dear, Oz etc. How many points would he be ahead by in that case? | ||
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Trius
Ukraine273 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17725 Posts
On October 07 2013 04:14 fuzzylogic44 wrote: Is that certain? Can't most of the points go to people ahead of Naniwa already? Half of the 16 players going to the season finals will make more than the minimum amount of points. I think as it is now already it cannot be only players ahead of Naniwa. | ||
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fuzzylogic44
Canada2633 Posts
On October 07 2013 04:14 Die4Ever wrote: How many points would he be ahead by in that case? He's 75 ahead of Rain so if rain loses that's certain. He's 575 ahead of Scarlett so she can make ro8 and still not pass Naniwa He's 775 ahead of soO so he can win Korea or make top 4 at the finals and still not pass Naniwa. Similar with VortiX. etc. | ||
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fuzzylogic44
Canada2633 Posts
On October 07 2013 04:16 Die4Ever wrote: Half of the 16 players going to the season finals will make more than the minimum amount of points. I think as it is now already it cannot be only players ahead of Naniwa. If Jaedong Hero Taeja Polt take 4 of the AM slots thats 9 players ahead, only 8 guaranteed to advance. Even if some do advance many need much more than that to pass Nani | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17725 Posts
On October 07 2013 04:19 fuzzylogic44 wrote: If Jaedong Hero Taeja Polt take 4 of the AM slots thats 9 players ahead, only 8 guaranteed to advance. Even if some do advance many need much more than that to pass Nani I'm curious about this as well, going to investigate. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17725 Posts
On October 07 2013 04:16 Trius wrote: sOs is playing ad IEM, has more WCS points than Mvp and has less chances than Mvp? I think 0.3% is a reasonable margin of error. But I'll look into it. | ||
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lolfail9001
Russian Federation40190 Posts
On October 07 2013 04:16 Trius wrote: sOs is playing at IEM, has more WCS points than Mvp and has less chances than Mvp? Bear in mind, that this is randomized simulation. | ||
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