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On October 06 2013 04:35 painkilla wrote:
So it Mvp qualifies for Blizzcon, it will be by the skin of his teeth. If not I will be hating on Alive for getting them free WCS points. I think the simulation might not have used the correct probabilities. It is safe to say that Korean Z/P ALWAYS win against foreigner in Bo5+. Thus the odds for matches like MC - Targa, DD-foreigner, Hyun-foreigner... etc should be like 100%.
I think Mvp is actually still fine. Sure hes getting past by some people, but lets look at where he is in comparison to who can pass him. At 3575 points and 11th place, Mvp can drop up to 5 spots and still make blizzcon. Now who can pass him? MC and MMA are obvious choices, being 12th and 13th respectively and they stand a decent chance of doing so. The next 2 are Revival and Naniwa. They have 0 chance of passing Mvp; its mathematically impossible. Then we have duckdeok and Rain, both of which are now in the placement matches trying to get that crucial 5th place birth to make season finals those guys are a bit further back in points so even if they make season finals they wont necessarily pass Mvp. Worst case scenario: they do and Mvp is now 15th in points: but whos really left? Scarlett maybe, but even if she gets top 4 in AM (and therefore autoquals for season finals) she would still only be at 3300 points, still behind Mvp. After her its just really long shots in dear, oz, hyun, and vortix.
Mvp should be fine  Die4ever's awesome predictor has him at 99%.
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On October 06 2013 04:48 NovaMB wrote:
So NaNiwa needs pretty much a ro4 at IEM NY now, with the results from today and bad luck in Europe and Koreas placement matches he might find himself in 17th place soon (no idea at what date KR placement matches are though
Liquipedia lists them to take place in 2 days 8 hours.
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2013_WCS_Season_3_Korea_GSL/Premier#Playoffs
(click on the matchup in the bracket itself to view times)
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Updated with the WCS KR and EU ro8 completed. And also the WCS AM ro16 groups set. I found the cause for the IEM next match bug, just a display bug not a bug in the simulation, I will fix it now.
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-------------------------------------------ForGG gets 2nd place in IEM
This happens 7.22% of the time. When it does, it increases ForGG's chances to 27.58%.
OK, now that sucks.
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Fixed the IEM next match display bug.
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So here are the Blizzcon qualification consequences remaining for WCS EU.
VortiX, 95111/300000, started with 900 WCS points, 31.7037%
VortiX starts in the round of 4 in Europe Premier facing MMA Acer
VortiX loses this match 62.62% of the time, which decreases VortiX's chances to 21.33%.
VortiX wins this match 37.38% of the time, which increases VortiX's chances to 49.07%.
duckdeok, 69702/300000, started with 2300 WCS points, 23.234%
duckdeok starts in the round of 4 in Europe Placement facing Targa
duckdeok loses this match 45.41% of the time, which decreases duckdeok's chances to 3.39%.
duckdeok wins this match 54.59% of the time, which increases duckdeok's chances to 39.74%.
StarDust, 26446/300000, started with 950 WCS points, 8.81533%
StarDust starts in the round of 4 in Europe Placement facing Nerchio
StarDust loses this match 49.01% of the time, which decreases StarDust's chances to 0.00%.
StarDust wins this match 50.99% of the time, which increases StarDust's chances to 17.29%.
Genius, 23692/300000, started with 50 WCS points, 7.89733%
Genius starts in the round of 4 in Europe Premier facing MC
Genius loses this match 46.89% of the time, which decreases Genius's chances to 4.72%.
Genius wins this match 53.11% of the time, which increases Genius's chances to 10.70%.
Nerchio, 6388/300000, started with 275 WCS points, 2.12933%
Nerchio starts in the round of 4 in Europe Placement facing StarDust
Nerchio loses this match 50.99% of the time, which decreases Nerchio's chances to 0.00%.
Nerchio wins this match 49.01% of the time, which increases Nerchio's chances to 4.34%.
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On October 06 2013 07:25 Die4Ever wrote:
So here are the Blizzcon qualification consequences remaining for WCS EU.
VortiX, 95111/300000, started with 900 WCS points, 31.7037%
VortiX starts in the round of 4 in Europe Premier facing MMA Acer
VortiX loses this match 62.62% of the time, which decreases VortiX's chances to 21.33%.
VortiX wins this match 37.38% of the time, which increases VortiX's chances to 49.07%.
duckdeok, 69702/300000, started with 2300 WCS points, 23.234%
duckdeok starts in the round of 4 in Europe Placement facing Targa
duckdeok loses this match 45.41% of the time, which decreases duckdeok's chances to 3.39%.
duckdeok wins this match 54.59% of the time, which increases duckdeok's chances to 39.74%.
StarDust, 26446/300000, started with 950 WCS points, 8.81533%
StarDust starts in the round of 4 in Europe Placement facing Nerchio
StarDust loses this match 49.01% of the time, which decreases StarDust's chances to 0.00%.
StarDust wins this match 50.99% of the time, which increases StarDust's chances to 17.29%.
Genius, 23692/300000, started with 50 WCS points, 7.89733%
Genius starts in the round of 4 in Europe Premier facing MC
Genius loses this match 46.89% of the time, which decreases Genius's chances to 4.72%.
Genius wins this match 53.11% of the time, which increases Genius's chances to 10.70%.
Nerchio, 6388/300000, started with 275 WCS points, 2.12933%
Nerchio starts in the round of 4 in Europe Placement facing StarDust
Nerchio loses this match 50.99% of the time, which decreases Nerchio's chances to 0.00%.
Nerchio wins this match 49.01% of the time, which increases Nerchio's chances to 4.34%.
While I understand that you are trying to use Agulliac for objectiveness, DD doesn't win his match agaist Targa 55% of the time. He wins 99.99% of the times.
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On October 05 2013 22:33 phagga wrote:Show nested quote +On October 05 2013 05:33 Waise wrote:On October 04 2013 23:56 ffadicted wrote:
16 koreans... somehow I feel like WCS missed it's goal hahah if the top 16 were something like 8 koreans and 8 foreigners, the 8 koreans would stomp, the ro8 would just be koreans anyway, and people would still complain. either that or the bracket would have koreans eliminating each other and you would end up with crappy, lopsided korean vs foreigner series in the ro8/ro4, which would make a joke out of the finals we can either have residency locked regional finals or we can throw foreigners into the same pit as koreans, you can't have it both ways and expect foreigners to fall ass backward into top tournament spots they don't deserve yeah right, because Naniwa did absolutely not beat Innovation and Duckdeok at the last season finals, and neither did scarlett beat Maru and MMA. It's impossible that a foreigner ever wins vs a korean.
you've obviously misunderstood me, because what you said is agreeing with my point. if foreigners are going to make it into late rounds of tournaments, it should be by winning under the same conditions of difficulty, i.e. by actually beating koreans, and not by blizzard engineering a system where foreigners are shoehorned into the limelight to please audiences. if scarlett and naniwa make it by beating koreans, that's amazing. btu the post i quoted was implying that WCS had a "goal" of increasing foreign presence, and unless blizzard is going to pay for their training to get better, the only way to do that is by giving foreigners easier conditions to qualify
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On October 06 2013 07:46 painkilla wrote:Show nested quote +On October 06 2013 07:25 Die4Ever wrote:
So here are the Blizzcon qualification consequences remaining for WCS EU.
VortiX, 95111/300000, started with 900 WCS points, 31.7037%
VortiX starts in the round of 4 in Europe Premier facing MMA Acer
VortiX loses this match 62.62% of the time, which decreases VortiX's chances to 21.33%.
VortiX wins this match 37.38% of the time, which increases VortiX's chances to 49.07%.
duckdeok, 69702/300000, started with 2300 WCS points, 23.234%
duckdeok starts in the round of 4 in Europe Placement facing Targa
duckdeok loses this match 45.41% of the time, which decreases duckdeok's chances to 3.39%.
duckdeok wins this match 54.59% of the time, which increases duckdeok's chances to 39.74%.
StarDust, 26446/300000, started with 950 WCS points, 8.81533%
StarDust starts in the round of 4 in Europe Placement facing Nerchio
StarDust loses this match 49.01% of the time, which decreases StarDust's chances to 0.00%.
StarDust wins this match 50.99% of the time, which increases StarDust's chances to 17.29%.
Genius, 23692/300000, started with 50 WCS points, 7.89733%
Genius starts in the round of 4 in Europe Premier facing MC
Genius loses this match 46.89% of the time, which decreases Genius's chances to 4.72%.
Genius wins this match 53.11% of the time, which increases Genius's chances to 10.70%.
Nerchio, 6388/300000, started with 275 WCS points, 2.12933%
Nerchio starts in the round of 4 in Europe Placement facing StarDust
Nerchio loses this match 50.99% of the time, which decreases Nerchio's chances to 0.00%.
Nerchio wins this match 49.01% of the time, which increases Nerchio's chances to 4.34%. While I understand that you are trying to use Agulliac for objectiveness, DD doesn't win his match agaist Targa 55% of the time. He wins 99.99% of the times.
Even Innovation probably could not beat Targa 99.99% of the time, though it might be close :p
Duck certainly isn't invincible either
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On October 06 2013 08:57 Bagration wrote:Show nested quote +On October 06 2013 07:46 painkilla wrote:On October 06 2013 07:25 Die4Ever wrote:
So here are the Blizzcon qualification consequences remaining for WCS EU.
VortiX, 95111/300000, started with 900 WCS points, 31.7037%
VortiX starts in the round of 4 in Europe Premier facing MMA Acer
VortiX loses this match 62.62% of the time, which decreases VortiX's chances to 21.33%.
VortiX wins this match 37.38% of the time, which increases VortiX's chances to 49.07%.
duckdeok, 69702/300000, started with 2300 WCS points, 23.234%
duckdeok starts in the round of 4 in Europe Placement facing Targa
duckdeok loses this match 45.41% of the time, which decreases duckdeok's chances to 3.39%.
duckdeok wins this match 54.59% of the time, which increases duckdeok's chances to 39.74%.
StarDust, 26446/300000, started with 950 WCS points, 8.81533%
StarDust starts in the round of 4 in Europe Placement facing Nerchio
StarDust loses this match 49.01% of the time, which decreases StarDust's chances to 0.00%.
StarDust wins this match 50.99% of the time, which increases StarDust's chances to 17.29%.
Genius, 23692/300000, started with 50 WCS points, 7.89733%
Genius starts in the round of 4 in Europe Premier facing MC
Genius loses this match 46.89% of the time, which decreases Genius's chances to 4.72%.
Genius wins this match 53.11% of the time, which increases Genius's chances to 10.70%.
Nerchio, 6388/300000, started with 275 WCS points, 2.12933%
Nerchio starts in the round of 4 in Europe Placement facing StarDust
Nerchio loses this match 50.99% of the time, which decreases Nerchio's chances to 0.00%.
Nerchio wins this match 49.01% of the time, which increases Nerchio's chances to 4.34%. While I understand that you are trying to use Agulliac for objectiveness, DD doesn't win his match agaist Targa 55% of the time. He wins 99.99% of the times. Even Innovation probably could not beat Targa 99.99% of the time, though it might be close :p Duck certainly isn't invincible either
Duckdeok lost to Nerchio in the ACT Finals. He can lose to Targa.
Duckdeok will be listed as the favorite 99.99% of the time, but wont win nearly that often 
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On October 06 2013 08:57 Bagration wrote:Show nested quote +On October 06 2013 07:46 painkilla wrote:On October 06 2013 07:25 Die4Ever wrote:
So here are the Blizzcon qualification consequences remaining for WCS EU.
VortiX, 95111/300000, started with 900 WCS points, 31.7037%
VortiX starts in the round of 4 in Europe Premier facing MMA Acer
VortiX loses this match 62.62% of the time, which decreases VortiX's chances to 21.33%.
VortiX wins this match 37.38% of the time, which increases VortiX's chances to 49.07%.
duckdeok, 69702/300000, started with 2300 WCS points, 23.234%
duckdeok starts in the round of 4 in Europe Placement facing Targa
duckdeok loses this match 45.41% of the time, which decreases duckdeok's chances to 3.39%.
duckdeok wins this match 54.59% of the time, which increases duckdeok's chances to 39.74%.
StarDust, 26446/300000, started with 950 WCS points, 8.81533%
StarDust starts in the round of 4 in Europe Placement facing Nerchio
StarDust loses this match 49.01% of the time, which decreases StarDust's chances to 0.00%.
StarDust wins this match 50.99% of the time, which increases StarDust's chances to 17.29%.
Genius, 23692/300000, started with 50 WCS points, 7.89733%
Genius starts in the round of 4 in Europe Premier facing MC
Genius loses this match 46.89% of the time, which decreases Genius's chances to 4.72%.
Genius wins this match 53.11% of the time, which increases Genius's chances to 10.70%.
Nerchio, 6388/300000, started with 275 WCS points, 2.12933%
Nerchio starts in the round of 4 in Europe Placement facing StarDust
Nerchio loses this match 50.99% of the time, which decreases Nerchio's chances to 0.00%.
Nerchio wins this match 49.01% of the time, which increases Nerchio's chances to 4.34%. While I understand that you are trying to use Agulliac for objectiveness, DD doesn't win his match agaist Targa 55% of the time. He wins 99.99% of the times. Even Innovation probably could not beat Targa 99.99% of the time, though it might be close :p Duck certainly isn't invincible either
The math probably doesn't account for Bo5 or Bo7. Say x = 80% is the Inno vs Targa odd (Inno wins).
The odd that Inno win the Bo3 is x^3 + 3x^2(1-x) = 0.896 = 90%
The odd that Inno win the Bo5 is x^5 + 5x^4(1-x) + 10x^3(1-x)^2 = 94208 = 0.94%
The odd that Inno win the Bo7 is (skip the formula) = 0.966656 = 97%
So I'd say MC and DD's chances might have been underestimated.
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On October 06 2013 09:00 Dragoonstorm7 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 06 2013 08:57 Bagration wrote:On October 06 2013 07:46 painkilla wrote:On October 06 2013 07:25 Die4Ever wrote:
So here are the Blizzcon qualification consequences remaining for WCS EU.
VortiX, 95111/300000, started with 900 WCS points, 31.7037%
VortiX starts in the round of 4 in Europe Premier facing MMA Acer
VortiX loses this match 62.62% of the time, which decreases VortiX's chances to 21.33%.
VortiX wins this match 37.38% of the time, which increases VortiX's chances to 49.07%.
duckdeok, 69702/300000, started with 2300 WCS points, 23.234%
duckdeok starts in the round of 4 in Europe Placement facing Targa
duckdeok loses this match 45.41% of the time, which decreases duckdeok's chances to 3.39%.
duckdeok wins this match 54.59% of the time, which increases duckdeok's chances to 39.74%.
StarDust, 26446/300000, started with 950 WCS points, 8.81533%
StarDust starts in the round of 4 in Europe Placement facing Nerchio
StarDust loses this match 49.01% of the time, which decreases StarDust's chances to 0.00%.
StarDust wins this match 50.99% of the time, which increases StarDust's chances to 17.29%.
Genius, 23692/300000, started with 50 WCS points, 7.89733%
Genius starts in the round of 4 in Europe Premier facing MC
Genius loses this match 46.89% of the time, which decreases Genius's chances to 4.72%.
Genius wins this match 53.11% of the time, which increases Genius's chances to 10.70%.
Nerchio, 6388/300000, started with 275 WCS points, 2.12933%
Nerchio starts in the round of 4 in Europe Placement facing StarDust
Nerchio loses this match 50.99% of the time, which decreases Nerchio's chances to 0.00%.
Nerchio wins this match 49.01% of the time, which increases Nerchio's chances to 4.34%. While I understand that you are trying to use Agulliac for objectiveness, DD doesn't win his match agaist Targa 55% of the time. He wins 99.99% of the times. Even Innovation probably could not beat Targa 99.99% of the time, though it might be close :p Duck certainly isn't invincible either Duckdeok lost to Nerchio in the ACT Finals. He can lose to Targa. Duckdeok will be listed as the favorite 99.99% of the time, but wont win nearly that often
A BoX will boost his odd considerably compare to a Bo1.
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On October 06 2013 10:13 painkilla wrote:Show nested quote +On October 06 2013 08:57 Bagration wrote:On October 06 2013 07:46 painkilla wrote:On October 06 2013 07:25 Die4Ever wrote:
So here are the Blizzcon qualification consequences remaining for WCS EU.
VortiX, 95111/300000, started with 900 WCS points, 31.7037%
VortiX starts in the round of 4 in Europe Premier facing MMA Acer
VortiX loses this match 62.62% of the time, which decreases VortiX's chances to 21.33%.
VortiX wins this match 37.38% of the time, which increases VortiX's chances to 49.07%.
duckdeok, 69702/300000, started with 2300 WCS points, 23.234%
duckdeok starts in the round of 4 in Europe Placement facing Targa
duckdeok loses this match 45.41% of the time, which decreases duckdeok's chances to 3.39%.
duckdeok wins this match 54.59% of the time, which increases duckdeok's chances to 39.74%.
StarDust, 26446/300000, started with 950 WCS points, 8.81533%
StarDust starts in the round of 4 in Europe Placement facing Nerchio
StarDust loses this match 49.01% of the time, which decreases StarDust's chances to 0.00%.
StarDust wins this match 50.99% of the time, which increases StarDust's chances to 17.29%.
Genius, 23692/300000, started with 50 WCS points, 7.89733%
Genius starts in the round of 4 in Europe Premier facing MC
Genius loses this match 46.89% of the time, which decreases Genius's chances to 4.72%.
Genius wins this match 53.11% of the time, which increases Genius's chances to 10.70%.
Nerchio, 6388/300000, started with 275 WCS points, 2.12933%
Nerchio starts in the round of 4 in Europe Placement facing StarDust
Nerchio loses this match 50.99% of the time, which decreases Nerchio's chances to 0.00%.
Nerchio wins this match 49.01% of the time, which increases Nerchio's chances to 4.34%. While I understand that you are trying to use Agulliac for objectiveness, DD doesn't win his match agaist Targa 55% of the time. He wins 99.99% of the times. Even Innovation probably could not beat Targa 99.99% of the time, though it might be close :p Duck certainly isn't invincible either The math probably doesn't account for Bo5 or Bo7. Say x = 80% is the Inno vs Targa odd (Inno wins). The odd that Inno win the Bo3 is x^3 + 3x^2(1-x) = 0.896 = 90% The odd that Inno win the Bo5 is x^5 + 5x^4(1-x) + 10x^3(1-x)^2 = 94208 = 0.94% The odd that Inno win the Bo7 is (skip the formula) = 0.966656 = 97% So I'd say MC and DD's chances might have been underestimated.
Indeed, a Bo3 prediction of duckdeok vs Targa on aligulac shows 61% for duckdeok instead of 55%.
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On October 06 2013 10:13 painkilla wrote:Show nested quote +On October 06 2013 08:57 Bagration wrote:On October 06 2013 07:46 painkilla wrote:On October 06 2013 07:25 Die4Ever wrote:
So here are the Blizzcon qualification consequences remaining for WCS EU.
VortiX, 95111/300000, started with 900 WCS points, 31.7037%
VortiX starts in the round of 4 in Europe Premier facing MMA Acer
VortiX loses this match 62.62% of the time, which decreases VortiX's chances to 21.33%.
VortiX wins this match 37.38% of the time, which increases VortiX's chances to 49.07%.
duckdeok, 69702/300000, started with 2300 WCS points, 23.234%
duckdeok starts in the round of 4 in Europe Placement facing Targa
duckdeok loses this match 45.41% of the time, which decreases duckdeok's chances to 3.39%.
duckdeok wins this match 54.59% of the time, which increases duckdeok's chances to 39.74%.
StarDust, 26446/300000, started with 950 WCS points, 8.81533%
StarDust starts in the round of 4 in Europe Placement facing Nerchio
StarDust loses this match 49.01% of the time, which decreases StarDust's chances to 0.00%.
StarDust wins this match 50.99% of the time, which increases StarDust's chances to 17.29%.
Genius, 23692/300000, started with 50 WCS points, 7.89733%
Genius starts in the round of 4 in Europe Premier facing MC
Genius loses this match 46.89% of the time, which decreases Genius's chances to 4.72%.
Genius wins this match 53.11% of the time, which increases Genius's chances to 10.70%.
Nerchio, 6388/300000, started with 275 WCS points, 2.12933%
Nerchio starts in the round of 4 in Europe Placement facing StarDust
Nerchio loses this match 50.99% of the time, which decreases Nerchio's chances to 0.00%.
Nerchio wins this match 49.01% of the time, which increases Nerchio's chances to 4.34%. While I understand that you are trying to use Agulliac for objectiveness, DD doesn't win his match agaist Targa 55% of the time. He wins 99.99% of the times. Even Innovation probably could not beat Targa 99.99% of the time, though it might be close :p Duck certainly isn't invincible either The math probably doesn't account for Bo5 or Bo7. Say x = 80% is the Inno vs Targa odd (Inno wins). The odd that Inno win the Bo3 is x^3 + 3x^2(1-x) = 0.896 = 90% The odd that Inno win the Bo5 is x^5 + 5x^4(1-x) + 10x^3(1-x)^2 = 94208 = 0.94% The odd that Inno win the Bo7 is (skip the formula) = 0.966656 = 97% So I'd say MC and DD's chances might have been underestimated.
It does take the best of into account actually. The reason why Targa is higher rated on here than on aligulac is because his ZvP is his worst matchup, and I'm still just using the general rating for the player. Their general ratings are 1557 and 1444, and aligulac tells us that a score difference under 250 is not significant, so I think the 55% is reasonable taking all this into account.
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Acer with one player from Korea, another from Europe and another from NA!
I want to believe!
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Still seems to be a little off in the DD vs Targa percentages. I tried to find an example of players close to 113 points difference on Aligulac, it gives around 58.8%. A little higher than the 54.6% you have.
1557 - 1444 = 113
Sting TvT = 1396 (Choose him randomly)
1396 - 113 = 1283
Beastqt TvT = 1288 (A little stronger than the target or 1283, so this is conservative)
(1396) Sting 0-0 Beastyqt (1288)
---------------------------------------------
16.39% 3-0 0-3 9.28%
22.26% 3-1 1-3 15.24%
20.16% 3-2 2-3 16.68%
---------------------------------------------
58.80% 41.20%
Median outcome: Sting 3-2 Beastyqt
Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.
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On October 06 2013 11:05 KillerDucky wrote:Still seems to be a little off in the DD vs Targa percentages. I tried to find an example of players close to 113 points difference on Aligulac, it gives around 58.8%. A little higher than the 54.6% you have. 1557 - 1444 = 113 Sting TvT = 1396 (Choose him randomly) 1396 - 113 = 1283 Beastqt TvT = 1288 (A little stronger than the target or 1283, so this is conservative) (1396) Sting 0-0 Beastyqt (1288)
---------------------------------------------
16.39% 3-0 0-3 9.28%
22.26% 3-1 1-3 15.24%
20.16% 3-2 2-3 16.68%
---------------------------------------------
58.80% 41.20%
Median outcome: Sting 3-2 Beastyqt
Yea mine is a different formula, so it's a little more conservative. I suppose I could easily make it slightly less conservative.
edit: also the future match predictions are based on an inspection of the results of the simulation rather than a direct comparison of the players(2 or sometimes 4 players) in the match, so that isn't exact either.
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Duckdeok takes care of business down in the 5th placement matches!
Great recovery after losing 0-3 yesterday.
Naniwa and Revival now scared as hell at 15 and 16.
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when will this be updated? i wonder MVP's chance now. Is he absolutely fine for blizzcon?
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On October 07 2013 03:28 Baroninthetree wrote:
when will this be updated? i wonder MVP's chance now. Is he absolutely fine for blizzcon?
Coming in about 10 minutes.
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EPT
