EPTThis thread is probabilities for Blizzcon. Maru winning has significant impact on that.
If anyone comes here and expects to not be spoiled they're a dumbass
Blizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 18
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Dragoonstorm7
United States599 Posts
This thread is probabilities for Blizzcon. Maru winning has significant impact on that. If anyone comes here and expects to not be spoiled they're a dumbass | ||
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Dragoonstorm7
United States599 Posts
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ivancype
Brazil485 Posts
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ffadicted
United States3545 Posts
 .  INnoVation . Bomber . Maru .  Polt . TaeJa . aLive .  Mvp .  Soulkey . Jaedong .  sOs . HerOMC is likely going to beat Targa, MMA is going to destroy Nerchio, so that adds to 13 players, 3 left between: duckdeok, HyuN, Revival, Scarlett, StarDust, Rain, PArtinG and NaNiwa. I think Rain will go to S3 finals, HyuN will make it as well and duckdeok will beat Genius, so the final list should be: Terran (8) . INnoVation . Bomber . Maru . Polt . TaeJa . aLive . Mvp . MMAZerg (3) . Soulkey . Jaedong . HyuNProtoss (5) . sOs . Rain . HerO . duckdeok . MCPlayer Split: Korean (16)League Split: WCS Korea (6) WCS America (6) WCS Europe (4)League Splits are ok, shows that EU is the most volatile region. Race split is to be expected. Zerg struggling, Terran mostly dominating from earlier seasons + kr terran advantage lol 16 koreans... somehow I feel like WCS missed it's goal hahah | ||
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lolfail9001
Russian Federation40190 Posts
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jarod
Romania766 Posts
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Shellshock
United States97276 Posts
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Ctesias
4595 Posts
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Darkhorse
United States23455 Posts
On October 05 2013 00:12 Ctesias wrote: So many awesome Terrans (and alive) qualifying. Glad to see it. How dare you. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17744 Posts
On October 04 2013 20:48 Dragoonstorm7 wrote: Perhaps a slight addition is needed to your program Die4Ever: If PartinG vs zerg -> zerg wins automatically. Haha, I do still need to make it use race specific aligulac ratings, maybe I will be able to do that this weekend. | ||
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Dragoonstorm7
United States599 Posts
On October 04 2013 23:56 ffadicted wrote: MC is likely going to beat Targa, MMA is going to destroy Nerchio, so that adds to 13 players, 3 left between: duckdeok, HyuN, Revival, Scarlett, StarDust, Rain, PArtinG and NaNiwa. I think Rain will go to S3 finals, HyuN will make it as well and duckdeok will beat Genius, so the final list should be: Agree that MC and MMA should win. We've seen some weird stuff this year tho. Hyun is a bold call, since he needs Scarlett and duckdeok to not make it to season finals or needs to win everything himself. I actually really like Scarletts chances at this point. Imho she got the best possible group she could ask for. (i know she hates toss but shes actually really solid at zvp). Hyun doesnt have a terrible group either, but his zvp has seemed really vulnerable recently imo. Also, does anyone else think Revival got screwed a bit by IEM? He won the last tourny and REALLY needs the points, and they give seeds to Flash and TLO. If I was Revival Id be a pissed. | ||
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Waise
3165 Posts
On October 04 2013 23:56 ffadicted wrote: if the top 16 were something like 8 koreans and 8 foreigners, the 8 koreans would stomp, the ro8 would just be koreans anyway, and people would still complain. either that or the bracket would have koreans eliminating each other and you would end up with crappy, lopsided korean vs foreigner series in the ro8/ro4, which would make a joke out of the finals16 koreans... somehow I feel like WCS missed it's goal hahah we can either have residency locked regional finals or we can throw foreigners into the same pit as koreans, you can't have it both ways and expect foreigners to fall ass backward into top tournament spots they don't deserve | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17744 Posts
On October 05 2013 05:33 Waise wrote: if the top 16 were something like 8 koreans and 8 foreigners, the 8 koreans would stomp, the ro8 would just be koreans anyway, and people would still complain. either that or the bracket would have koreans eliminating each other and you would end up with crappy, lopsided korean vs foreigner series in the ro8/ro4, which would make a joke out of the finals we can either have residency locked regional finals or we can throw foreigners into the same pit as koreans, you can't have it both ways and expect foreigners to fall ass backward into top tournament spots they don't deserve Or remember last Blizzcon? Mvp and NesTea were the only koreans lol, then everyone was calling it an easy tournament. | ||
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NightOfTheDead
Lithuania1711 Posts
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Sabu113
United States11095 Posts
Hope Rain can still make it. I think Nani is dead which is a bummer but he doesn't seem up for it anyway. Wish I could trade Maru and Alive for 2 zergs as well. | ||
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painkilla
United States695 Posts
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painkilla
United States695 Posts
On October 04 2013 23:56 ffadicted wrote: So with Maru winning, we have essentially 11 guaranteed players for blizzcon: . INnoVation . Bomber . Maru . Polt . TaeJa . aLive . Mvp . Soulkey . Jaedong . sOs . HerOMC is likely going to beat Targa, MMA is going to destroy Nerchio, so that adds to 13 players, 3 left between: duckdeok, HyuN, Revival, Scarlett, StarDust, Rain, PArtinG and NaNiwa. I think Rain will go to S3 finals, HyuN will make it as well and duckdeok will beat Genius, so the final list should be: Terran (8) . INnoVation . Bomber . Maru . Polt . TaeJa . aLive . Mvp . MMAZerg (3) . Soulkey . Jaedong . HyuNProtoss (5) . sOs . Rain . HerO . duckdeok . MCPlayer Split: Korean (16)League Split: WCS Korea (6) WCS America (6) WCS Europe (3)League Splits are ok, shows that EU is the most volatile region. Race split is to be expected. Zerg struggling, Terran mostly dominating from earlier seasons + kr terran advantage lol 16 koreans... somehow I feel like WCS missed it's goal hahah This is to make up for last year BWC and Blizzard with like 1 terran in each. | ||
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Wingblade
United States1806 Posts
On October 05 2013 10:23 painkilla wrote: Blizzcon is looking to be good old GomTvT with Innovation added in ."Good old" unless you like racial distribution. I know I won't tune in for TvTvT_T and I'm sure a lot of other people won't either. | ||
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
On October 05 2013 10:39 Wingblade wrote: "Good old" unless you like racial distribution. I know I won't tune in for TvTvT_T and I'm sure a lot of other people won't either. Don't know, TvT is often considered the best MU, and good TvT's get some of the highest recommended games scores. As it's also quite the rarity at the moment (with the exception of watching Innovation play TvT ), I think people will gladly watch it.Edit: Looking at the list, the TvT of Bomber, Polt, Taeja, Mvp and MMA is some of the most entertaining there is. If you add Innovation (v MMA game 3), it's a perfect storm of great TvT. We're only missing Flash and Ryung to have the dream team of TvT. | ||
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calh
537 Posts
On October 05 2013 10:23 painkilla wrote: Blizzcon is looking to be good old GomTvT with Innovation added in .And people complained that there were no consistency in SC2. Sure there are large fluctuations in the short to medium term, but in the end there's still a class of elite players that rotate in and out. | ||
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