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Blizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 17

Forum Index > SC2 General
1549 CommentsPost a Reply
Prev 1 15 16 17 18 19 78 Next
phagga
Profile Joined February 2012
Switzerland2194 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-02 07:29:25
October 02 2013 07:25 GMT
#321
On October 02 2013 15:53 User15937 wrote:
I'm hoping NesTea makes it through, but he doesn't have very good odds

Also it's interesting how 10 of the 16 slots at Blizzcon have basically been locked with most of the third season still to play...3rd season doesn't seem as significant as the other two.


If each season locks third of the amount of slots available for Blizzcon, that makes 10 slots of 16 after 2 seasons. Works out perfectly

Seriously though you would expect the winners of the regional finals and the finalists of the global finals to make it to Blizzcon. With 6 different regional winners and 4 different finalists (from which neither won a region finals) you already got 10 players who should be more or less set for Blizzcon. Addtionally aLive made it to two consecutive global finals, which gives him a ton of points.

Interestingly enough Maru and duckdeok can still miss Blizzcon if they drop out in their respective round of 8.

Edit: What I want to say with this is: Blizzcon is for the best of the best. So you either won a region finals, got to the final of the globals or were able to deliver results over more than one season; be it in at least two WCS seasons or one WCS season and several foreign tournaments (see Naniwa).
"A person who does not concern himself with politics has already made the political choice he was so anxious to spare himself: he is serving the ruling party." - Max Frisch
Kylo55
Profile Joined April 2012
Poland64 Posts
October 02 2013 12:32 GMT
#322
On October 02 2013 15:53 User15937 wrote:
I'm hoping NesTea makes it through, but he doesn't have very good odds

Also it's interesting how 10 of the 16 slots at Blizzcon have basically been locked with most of the third season still to play...3rd season doesn't seem as significant as the other two.


I dont know how the season that has exatly the same ammount of points to be given can be less significant? Please explain that.
pedrlz
Profile Joined September 2012
Brazil5234 Posts
October 02 2013 13:07 GMT
#323
Would be too wrong if Nerchio "play bad" for MMA to advance to the finals?

I mean, when you create a system like this you have to expect teammates playing to help which other, after all the team name is bigger than the players. I wouldn't mind, but I almost sure that after the match reddit would have a thread at the top for 2 days to discuss this kind of thing.
Hadronsbecrazy
Profile Joined September 2013
United Kingdom551 Posts
October 02 2013 13:10 GMT
#324
Hats off to you good sir, this is awesome
No need Build Orders, Only Micro,Favourite Players: Maru, Zest, soOjwa , CJherO
phagga
Profile Joined February 2012
Switzerland2194 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-02 13:46:01
October 02 2013 13:45 GMT
#325
GSL Ro8 spoiler!

+ Show Spoiler +
Hmm, Rain lost his quarterfinal match against soulkey. Unless he qualifies over the consolation matches, rain will drop out of the race for Blizzcon. (He currently has 2750 together with Naniwa on Rank 15).
"A person who does not concern himself with politics has already made the political choice he was so anxious to spare himself: he is serving the ruling party." - Max Frisch
ffadicted
Profile Joined January 2011
United States3545 Posts
October 02 2013 14:43 GMT
#326
On October 02 2013 22:45 phagga wrote:
GSL Ro8 spoiler!

+ Show Spoiler +
Hmm, Rain lost his quarterfinal match against soulkey. Unless he qualifies over the consolation matches, rain will drop out of the race for Blizzcon. (He currently has 2750 together with Naniwa on Rank 15).


+ Show Spoiler +
NooOOoOooOOo Rain </3
SooYoung-Noona!
movac
Profile Joined February 2011
Canada494 Posts
October 02 2013 15:06 GMT
#327
On October 02 2013 22:45 phagga wrote:
GSL Ro8 spoiler!

+ Show Spoiler +
Hmm, Rain lost his quarterfinal match against soulkey. Unless he qualifies over the consolation matches, rain will drop out of the race for Blizzcon. (He currently has 2750 together with Naniwa on Rank 15).


+ Show Spoiler +
Rain's only chance now is to get the 5th place spot for the Season Finals
HelpMeGetBetter
Profile Blog Joined November 2012
United States766 Posts
October 02 2013 15:52 GMT
#328
It would be cool if we could do our own simulations. This reminds me of ESPN's playoff machine:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

Might be a little too advanced but TL never disappoints me.
Bagration
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
United States18282 Posts
October 02 2013 16:10 GMT
#329
On October 02 2013 22:07 pedrlz wrote:
Would be too wrong if Nerchio "play bad" for MMA to advance to the finals?

I mean, when you create a system like this you have to expect teammates playing to help which other, after all the team name is bigger than the players. I wouldn't mind, but I almost sure that after the match reddit would have a thread at the top for 2 days to discuss this kind of thing.


People would frown upon it, but it would be hard to prove, since most consider MMA the favorite anyways. Also, Nerchio throwing the match would basically end his tournament run for most of 2013, which would really hurt his career, whereas a deep run in WCS EU and/or the Season finals could be huge for his career.
Team Slayers, Axiom-Acer and Vile forever
bludragen88
Profile Joined August 2008
United States527 Posts
October 02 2013 17:14 GMT
#330
On October 02 2013 14:56 Dragoonstorm7 wrote:
Even if TLO wins IEM he only would have 2875 points, which probably wouldnt be enough anyway.
Which is why his chances are listed as <0.2%.


On October 02 2013 15:25 phagga wrote:
Anyone hoping for foreigners should mainly look at Scarlett, Vortix and Naniwa. Perhaps Nerchio. The chances for everyone else are very slim. And even the four mentioned need a really good run to still qualify.


I totally agree with both of you that things look grim for all foreigners (even Scarlett has a tough road ahead). However, it's definitely not impossible, so I will keep cheering our foreign hopes until they're mathematically eliminated. That's what sports is all about anyways!
Dragoonstorm7
Profile Joined December 2012
United States599 Posts
October 02 2013 22:35 GMT
#331
It would be crazy if Dear came out of nowhere to make Blizzcon
Not sayings its likely, but it would be awesome!
oblivion awaits- dark archon (aka best unit ever)
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17750 Posts
October 03 2013 01:58 GMT
#332
On October 03 2013 00:52 HelpMeGetBetter wrote:
It would be cool if we could do our own simulations. This reminds me of ESPN's playoff machine:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

Might be a little too advanced but TL never disappoints me.

I've been thinking of doing this for 2014 actually.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17750 Posts
October 03 2013 02:50 GMT
#333
Just posted a new update with
IEM ro16 3 players in each group set, and stardust, puck, hyun and life put in random groups
GSL ro8 day 1 completed + Show Spoiler +
Dear vs Trap and Soulkey vs Rain

WCS AM ro32 completed, but no ro16 groups yet
"Expert" mods4ever.com
AySz88
Profile Joined March 2011
United States83 Posts
October 03 2013 04:54 GMT
#334
You might have noticed this already, but just in case you haven't, looks like there's a bug or at least some sort of ugly error in the last run for Naniwa:

wtf why 3 players?
wtf why 3 players?
wtf why 3 players?
wtf why 3 players?
wtf why 0 players?
wtf why 0 players?
wtf why 0 players?
wtf why 0 players?
wtf why 0 players?
wtf why 0 players?
wtf why 0 players?
NaNiwa starts in the round of 12 in IEM facing HerO Liquid, qxc
NaNiwa loses this match 0.00% of the time, which decreases NaNiwa's chances to -1.#J%.
NaNiwa wins this match 56.06% of the time, which increases NaNiwa's chances to 36.99%.
Naphal
Profile Joined December 2010
Germany2099 Posts
October 03 2013 05:19 GMT
#335
when will Mvp reach 100%?! This suspense!
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17750 Posts
October 03 2013 05:55 GMT
#336
On October 03 2013 13:54 AySz88 wrote:
You might have noticed this already, but just in case you haven't, looks like there's a bug or at least some sort of ugly error in the last run for Naniwa:

Show nested quote +
wtf why 3 players?
wtf why 3 players?
wtf why 3 players?
wtf why 3 players?
wtf why 0 players?
wtf why 0 players?
wtf why 0 players?
wtf why 0 players?
wtf why 0 players?
wtf why 0 players?
wtf why 0 players?
NaNiwa starts in the round of 12 in IEM facing HerO Liquid, qxc
NaNiwa loses this match 0.00% of the time, which decreases NaNiwa's chances to -1.#J%.
NaNiwa wins this match 56.06% of the time, which increases NaNiwa's chances to 36.99%.

Hahahaha lol I didn't notice that actually. Thanks.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17750 Posts
October 03 2013 06:49 GMT
#337
On October 03 2013 14:19 Naphal wrote:
when will Mvp reach 100%?! This suspense!

I'm guessing if a few players above him secure their spots to the season finals, then it'll lock points away from the players below Mvp, and his chances might go up to 100% then.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17750 Posts
October 03 2013 19:32 GMT
#338
updated with WCS AM ro16 groups
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Dragoonstorm7
Profile Joined December 2012
United States599 Posts
October 04 2013 10:40 GMT
#339
Maru wins! Locked for Blizzcon!
oblivion awaits- dark archon (aka best unit ever)
phagga
Profile Joined February 2012
Switzerland2194 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-04 10:43:55
October 04 2013 10:43 GMT
#340
On October 04 2013 19:40 Dragoonstorm7 wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
Maru wins! Locked for Blizzcon!

SPOILER!
"A person who does not concern himself with politics has already made the political choice he was so anxious to spare himself: he is serving the ruling party." - Max Frisch
Prev 1 15 16 17 18 19 78 Next
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