EPTBlizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 15
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Gorlin
United States2753 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17718 Posts
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Sabu113
United States11075 Posts
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Plasmid
57 Posts
maybe this is a question already asked by a dozen other people before, i scanned a few of the backpages and could not find it so here i go. In your september 27 results (current as of now), we find this: Stephano, 2/300000, started with 2025 WCS points, 0.000666667% My question is not technically about Stephano, but about how his score is not an exact 0 chances? If we look the standings, he is 22nd, eliminated from current season and not entering IEM NY. So isn't his points cap at the current 2025, which cant qualify him for the current cutoff of 2625 (Maru). I am asking because i wonder if this is due to a logical problem and if so, does that affect the rest of the results? Thanks. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17718 Posts
On September 29 2013 02:29 Plasmid wrote: Hi Die4Ever, maybe this is a question already asked by a dozen other people before, i scanned a few of the backpages and could not find it so here i go. In your september 27 results (current as of now), we find this: Stephano, 2/300000, started with 2025 WCS points, 0.000666667% My question is not technically about Stephano, but about how his score is not an exact 0 chances? If we look the standings, he is 22nd, eliminated from current season and not entering IEM NY. So isn't his points cap at the current 2025, which cant qualify him for the current cutoff of 2625 (Maru). I am asking because i wonder if this is due to a logical problem and if so, does that affect the rest of the results? Thanks. My program doesn't know he's retired. The 2 times he made it is probably from a 1st place at IEM, and a lot of really specific events happening to leave that 16th place points spot open for him. | ||
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asongdotnet
United States1060 Posts
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Dragoonstorm7
United States599 Posts
On September 29 2013 02:35 Die4Ever wrote: My program doesn't know he's retired. The 2 times he made it is probably from a 1st place at IEM, and a lot of really specific events happening to leave that 16th place points spot open for him. Now that the complete official player list has been announced for IEM these will go away. Again, thanks to Die4ever for his awesomeness!  | ||
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Plasmid
57 Posts
On September 29 2013 02:35 Die4Ever wrote: My program doesn't know he's retired. The 2 times he made it is probably from a 1st place at IEM, and a lot of really specific events happening to leave that 16th place points spot open for him. Actually it was not about being retired, or the specific sequence of events. Those I understand well. The real issue here is that I dont know how to read properly, because it says in plain english: -IEM ro16 with the 8 qualified players + 8 random players that are either still in premier league or have at least 1000 WCS points I wrongly assumed the next step of knowing every possible player, which was my mistake. Sorry about that, and keep up the good work. Many of us actually enjoy seeing the results, at least those near the cutoff. Adds to the anticipation of matches. Thanks again. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17718 Posts
On September 29 2013 11:49 Plasmid wrote: Actually it was not about being retired, or the specific sequence of events. Those I understand well. The real issue here is that I dont know how to read properly, because it says in plain english: -IEM ro16 with the 8 qualified players + 8 random players that are either still in premier league or have at least 1000 WCS points I wrongly assumed the next step of knowing every possible player, which was my mistake. Sorry about that, and keep up the good work. Many of us actually enjoy seeing the results, at least those near the cutoff. Adds to the anticipation of matches. Thanks again. Ah it's ok that you didn't see that lol, there's a lot of stuff to read. Thanks! | ||
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fuzzylogic44
Canada2633 Posts
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-JoKeR-
Canada387 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17718 Posts
On September 29 2013 14:46 -JoKeR- wrote: What are the odds forgg can make it to blizzcon? ForGG, 26269/300000, started with 1950 WCS points, 8.75633%- Hide Spoiler [IF Game Changers] - -------------------------------------------ForGG gets 1st place in IEM This happens 10.40% of the time. When it does, it increases ForGG's chances to 69.87%. -------------------------------------------ForGG gets 16th place in IEM This happens 41.39% of the time. When it does, it decreases ForGG's chances to 0.00%. -------------------------------------------ForGG gets 8th place in IEM This happens 25.36% of the time. When it does, it decreases ForGG's chances to 0.02%. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17718 Posts
On September 29 2013 14:44 fuzzylogic44 wrote: You should include what happens if Naniwa wins his Challenger bracket/group. Only 75 more points but it could make a big difference. Yes I want it to do a full simulation of the challenger leagues, I just haven't put in the time for it. | ||
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Elite_
United States4259 Posts
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Elche
Finland170 Posts
User was temp banned for this post. | ||
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Weavel
Finland9221 Posts
Is maru save now that advanced to ro8? I really hope that he makes it to the Global finals. | ||
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
On September 29 2013 18:57 Weavel wrote: GSL spoilers+ Show Spoiler + Is maru save now that advanced to ro8? I really hope that he makes it to the Global finals. The data in the OP says 75%. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17718 Posts
On September 29 2013 18:57 Weavel wrote: GSL spoilers+ Show Spoiler + Is maru save now that advanced to ro8? I really hope that he makes it to the Global finals. Maru needs to make it to the season finals to be secured a spot. -------------------------------------------Maru Prime gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 16.85% of the time. When it does, it increases Maru Prime's chances to 98.84%. -------------------------------------------Maru Prime gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------Maru Prime gets 1st place in Korea Placement This happens 3.35% of the time. When it does, it increases Maru Prime's chances to 94.17%. I'm too tired to add in the GSL ro8 and new IEM players, I'll do the next update tomorrow. | ||
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Elite_
United States4259 Posts
On September 29 2013 18:57 Weavel wrote: GSL spoilers+ Show Spoiler + Is maru save now that advanced to ro8? I really hope that he makes it to the Global finals. Maru Prime starts in the round of 16 in Korea Premier facing PartinG, Flash KT, KangHo Maru Prime loses this match 46.23% of the time, which decreases Maru Prime's chances to 3.28%. Maru Prime wins this match 53.77% of the time, which increases Maru Prime's chances to 75.23%. | ||
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RenSC2
United States1072 Posts
On September 29 2013 18:57 Weavel wrote: GSL spoilers+ Show Spoiler + Is maru save now that advanced to ro8? I really hope that he makes it to the Global finals. Answer: + Show Spoiler + Not safe yet, but he would have been nearly out had he lost. If he gets to the Ro4, then he's essentially in. | ||
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