EPTBlizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 14
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Die4Ever
United States17744 Posts
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Grovbolle
Denmark3814 Posts
On September 26 2013 13:34 Die4Ever wrote: Updated with WCS KR ro16 Group B, WCS EU ro16 Group B, and WCS AM ro32 Group C. Also COLORS! Let me know what you guys think. B-E-A-UTIFUL | ||
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never_Nal
Costa Rica676 Posts
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Dingodile
4139 Posts
Why are the chances smaller to qualify if he gets 2nd place at wcs eu than 4th place? where is the difference between "europe placement" and "europe premier"? | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17744 Posts
On September 27 2013 01:14 Dingodile wrote: I looked the "if game changers" from MC and I dont understand. Why are the chances smaller to qualify if he gets 2nd place at wcs eu than 4th place? where is the difference between "europe placement" and "europe premier"? I assume you're talking about this. -------------------------------------------MC gets 2nd place in Europe Placement This happens 12.68% of the time. When it does, it decreases MC's chances to 5.65%. -------------------------------------------MC gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 28.98% of the time. When it does, it increases MC's chances to 99.19%. -------------------------------------------MC gets 2nd place or better in Europe Premier This happens 19.82% of the time. When it does, it increases MC's chances to 100.00%. The placement matches are for the players who lose in the round of 8, to determine who gets 5th place. The person who wins the placement matches gets to go to the season finals. You could also call the placement matches consolation matches. So MC getting 2nd place in the placement matches means he doesn't get to go to the season finals, and the season finals gives A LOT of points. | ||
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Dingodile
4139 Posts
I am not sure why dont you say "MC gets 6th place at Europe Premier". I think this is more understandable. | ||
Darkhorse
United States23455 Posts
On September 26 2013 12:57 Die4Ever wrote: How about colors? edit: I feel like the colors pull my eyes to the right more, so maybe I should add more hyphens in front of the events to line them up better? like ---------------------------------------Revival gets 2nd place in IEM This happens 0.89% of the time. When it does, it increases Revival's chances to 91.51%. + Show Spoiler [preview] + Revival, 161622/300000, started with 2900 WCS points, 53.874%+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] + ----Revival gets 1st place in IEM This happens 0.88% of the time. When it does, it increases Revival's chances to 100.00%. ----Revival gets 2nd place in IEM This happens 0.89% of the time. When it does, it increases Revival's chances to 91.51%. ----Scarlett gets 4th place in America Premier ----Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Korea Placement This happens 0.78% of the time. When it does, it decreases Revival's chances to 21.01%. ----Scarlett gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----duckdeok gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.33% of the time. When it does, it decreases Revival's chances to 21.60%. ----Revival gets 4th place in IEM This happens 1.73% of the time. When it does, it increases Revival's chances to 82.61%. ----NaNiwa gets 1st place in IEM This happens 6.30% of the time. When it does, it decreases Revival's chances to 31.55%. ----Scarlett gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 9.37% of the time. When it does, it decreases Revival's chances to 33.04%. ----Revival gets 8th place in IEM This happens 3.42% of the time. When it does, it increases Revival's chances to 75.73%. ----INnoVation gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.97% of the time. When it does, it increases Revival's chances to 72.15%. ----Jaedong gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.34% of the time. When it does, it increases Revival's chances to 71.93%. ----HerO Liquid gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.34% of the time. When it does, it increases Revival's chances to 71.54%. ----Soulkey WJS gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 3.86% of the time. When it does, it increases Revival's chances to 70.80%. ----Polt gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.31% of the time. When it does, it increases Revival's chances to 70.68%. ----TaeJa gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.18% of the time. When it does, it increases Revival's chances to 70.30%. I just meant it was a lot of potential scenarios nothing against your previous format  . However I think the colors are awesome! Good change I think. Makes it more easily readable. | ||
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ffadicted
United States3545 Posts
Alicia, 1/300000, started with 1850 WCS points, 0.000333333% So curious to see this full scenario hahah Another fantastic job btw. Although I think it's time we start grouping out the 100%'s into "already made it" category or something | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17744 Posts
On September 27 2013 01:55 Dingodile wrote: oh yes I understand now the difference between premier and placement, thank you. I am not sure why dont you say "MC gets 6th place at Europe Premier". I think this is more understandable. I agree, it's just a result of the way the program works, and I haven't spent the time to make it output it that way. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17744 Posts
On September 27 2013 02:11 ffadicted wrote: So curious to see this full scenario hahah Another fantastic job btw. Although I think it's time we start grouping out the 100%'s into "already made it" category or something Maybe I'll make another bracket for the 90%+ players or 99%+ players. I actually remember having a bracket like 99%+ or 100% or something, but there was some complaint about it. | ||
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KillerDucky
United States498 Posts
Also how do you handle ties for 16th? | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17744 Posts
On September 27 2013 02:33 KillerDucky wrote: Maybe you could add something simple for Challenger league going to 50% chances in matches instead of placing actual players and using ratings. Those few extra points could be important especially for Revival. Also how do you handle ties for 16th? I could do that, I was hoping to do a full simulation of challenger league, but it's a complex format that differs between the regions, and I just haven't found the time to program it. Ties for 16th to qualify...I use an unstable sort, so tie breakers are just semi-random. I'll try using the aligulac rating of the players for tie breakers, but I suspect they are rare enough that it won't make a big difference on the stats. Or maybe I should use random chance for the tie breakers. | ||
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Dragoonstorm7
United States599 Posts
His chances just plummeted. Good news for Naniwa tho. | ||
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Guimsbla
Taiwan25 Posts
On September 27 2013 05:17 Dragoonstorm7 wrote: And ForGG goes down! His chances just plummeted. Good news for Naniwa tho. Really ? good news for Naniwa ? haha priceless. good news for naniwa was that he wasthe only pro player in IEM. And I dont think he relies on luck to hope to go to Blizzcon. | ||
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phagga
Switzerland2194 Posts
On September 27 2013 05:17 Dragoonstorm7 wrote: And ForGG goes down! His chances just plummeted. Good news for Naniwa tho. ForGG has qualified for IEM as well. On September 27 2013 16:02 Guimsbla wrote: Really ? good news for Naniwa ? haha priceless. good news for naniwa was that he wasthe only pro player in IEM. And I dont think he relies on luck to hope to go to Blizzcon. Right. Because the Top4 players of the WCS ranking are not pro at all. neither is ForGG or Polt. And I'm sure it will be a walk in the park to qualify for one of the remaining 4 spots in phase 2, so those 4 players will be easy opponents too! /sarcasm | ||
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Guimsbla
Taiwan25 Posts
On September 27 2013 17:54 phagga wrote: ForGG has qualified for IEM as well. Right. Because the Top4 players of the WCS ranking are not pro at all. neither is ForGG or Polt. And I'm sure it will be a walk in the park to qualify for one of the remaining 4 spots in phase 2, so those 4 players will be easy opponents too! /sarcasm Sorry we got a misunderstanding here  I meant that Naniwa would need that every pro player drop out of IEM, and then only he could win it. That's the kind of luck he needs to qualify for blizzcon ! | ||
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phagga
Switzerland2194 Posts
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Dragoonstorm7
United States599 Posts
On September 27 2013 20:07 Guimsbla wrote: Sorry we got a misunderstanding here I meant that Naniwa would need that every pro player drop out of IEM, and then only he could win it. That's the kind of luck he needs to qualify for blizzcon !So then why the hell are you laughing at ForGG losing being good news for Naniwa?? I didnt say say it "guarantees" him a spot or anything, just that any player who is close behind Naniwa that loses helps Naniwa's chances if only a little. If you cant see why that is then Id recommend going to look up how the points system works. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17744 Posts
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Darkdwarf
Sweden960 Posts
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