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On September 29 2013 18:25 Elche wrote:
Mark my words. Blizzcon will have PvP finals and possibly even all protoss top-4. They know their race is the best atm and are not winning any tournaments on purpose waiting for the big bucks of blizzcon.
keep the balance whining out of this thread plz, thats not what this is about.
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i know flash was a longshot to make it to blizzcon but damn... really sad about yesterday
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On September 29 2013 14:46 -JoKeR- wrote:
What are the odds forgg can make it to blizzcon?
not very good i'd say... even if he snags a couple hundred points, you still have guys like MMA, Hyun and Scarlett who can still amass more points via WCS
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This is the final list of players.
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On September 30 2013 03:53 dangthatsright wrote:This is the final list of players.
Thanks, running the new stats now.
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ok updated with WCS KR ro8, and I did a simplified IEM simulation, just ro16 with the players who actually have a chance.
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On September 30 2013 01:04 asongdotnet wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2013 14:46 -JoKeR- wrote:
What are the odds forgg can make it to blizzcon? not very good i'd say... even if he snags a couple hundred points, you still have guys like MMA, Hyun and Scarlett who can still amass more points via WCS
Agreed ^ . If he wins he's in decent position. 2nd is really borderline. Anything else and his odds are extremely low.
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Great work! Is it possible to display the top 3 most probable top 16?
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On September 30 2013 23:47 10bulgares wrote:
Great work! Is it possible to display the top 3 most probable top 16?
Hmm, the top 16 most probable players shouldn't have much mutual exclusivity, I'm not sure the top 3 most probable top 16s would differ much.
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Thanks for the reply, sucks that forgg probably wont make it to blizzcon.
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Could you give an update on the current probabilities?
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On October 02 2013 06:12 Sandermatt wrote:
Could you give an update on the current probabilities?
Not much has changed since the last update. Taeja stays at 100%, Huk goes up slightly but still under 5%, Major and Top go down to 0%. I'll do another update once this WCS AM group is over and they draw the ro16.
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With the conclusion of today's WCS AM RO32, it looks like only 41 players even have a mathematical possibility of making it to Blizzcon... it's getting really tense! Really hope one of the foreigners can make a late run (TLO at IEM, Huk/Scarlett in WCS AM)
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On October 02 2013 07:10 Die4Ever wrote:Show nested quote +On October 02 2013 06:12 Sandermatt wrote:
Could you give an update on the current probabilities? Not much has changed since the last update. Taeja stays at 100%, Huk goes up slightly but still under 5%, Major and Top go down to 0%. I'll do another update once this WCS AM group is over and they draw the ro16.
If Naniwa gets 100 points in challanger, does it help him a little (how much)?
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On October 02 2013 09:58 bludragen88 wrote:
With the conclusion of today's WCS AM RO32, it looks like only 41 players even have a mathematical possibility of making it to Blizzcon... it's getting really tense! Really hope one of the foreigners can make a late run (TLO at IEM, Huk/Scarlett in WCS AM)
Even if TLO wins IEM he only would have 2875 points, which probably wouldnt be enough anyway.
Which is why his chances are listed as <0.2%.
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On October 02 2013 09:58 bludragen88 wrote:
With the conclusion of today's WCS AM RO32, it looks like only 41 players even have a mathematical possibility of making it to Blizzcon... it's getting really tense! Really hope one of the foreigners can make a late run (TLO at IEM, Huk/Scarlett in WCS AM)
Anyone hoping for foreigners should mainly look at Scarlett, Vortix and Naniwa. Perhaps Nerchio. The chances for everyone else are very slim. And even the four mentioned need a really good run to still qualify.
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On September 13 2013 21:01 Caladan wrote:Thanks for your work!  That said (not a criticism in general) probabilities don't really have anything to do with reality. Especially these don't lead to any predictions one could make. SC2 is just too dependend on randomness and how a player is playing on a certain day... it's way too complex, with too many factores involved, to be predicted (see all those "upsets" happening in every league at the moment). So probabilities are nice, but they have, in my opinion, zero to do with reality. But that's a bit of a general problem of stochastics/mathematics - pretending the world is not as complex as in reality it is. But thanks for your contribution nevertheless.
Okay how about this:
I will propose you bets where you get 100€ when you win and I only get 90€ when I win. You will have to take any bet that I propose you though. If youa re right and predictions don't have any value you would be maing money, right?
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On October 02 2013 14:21 Sandermatt wrote:Show nested quote +On October 02 2013 07:10 Die4Ever wrote:On October 02 2013 06:12 Sandermatt wrote:
Could you give an update on the current probabilities? Not much has changed since the last update. Taeja stays at 100%, Huk goes up slightly but still under 5%, Major and Top go down to 0%. I'll do another update once this WCS AM group is over and they draw the ro16. If Naniwa gets 100 points in challanger, does it help him a little (how much)?
If Naniwa makes it, it will be by the skin of his teeth, so those few points could be crucial.
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I'm hoping NesTea makes it through, but he doesn't have very good odds 
Also it's interesting how 10 of the 16 slots at Blizzcon have basically been locked with most of the third season still to play...3rd season doesn't seem as significant as the other two.
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EPT
