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Blizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 19

Forum Index > SC2 General
1549 CommentsPost a Reply
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Yrr
Profile Joined June 2012
Germany805 Posts
October 05 2013 10:50 GMT
#361
On October 04 2013 23:56 ffadicted wrote:
Player Split:
kr Korean (16)

League Split:
kr WCS Korea (6)
us WCS America (6)
eu WCS Europe (3)

You missed one player from WCS Europe.
MMR decay is bad, m'kay? | Personal Hero: TerranHwaiting
phagga
Profile Joined February 2012
Switzerland2194 Posts
October 05 2013 13:33 GMT
#362
On October 05 2013 05:33 Waise wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 04 2013 23:56 ffadicted wrote:
16 koreans... somehow I feel like WCS missed it's goal hahah
if the top 16 were something like 8 koreans and 8 foreigners, the 8 koreans would stomp, the ro8 would just be koreans anyway, and people would still complain. either that or the bracket would have koreans eliminating each other and you would end up with crappy, lopsided korean vs foreigner series in the ro8/ro4, which would make a joke out of the finals

we can either have residency locked regional finals or we can throw foreigners into the same pit as koreans, you can't have it both ways and expect foreigners to fall ass backward into top tournament spots they don't deserve


yeah right, because Naniwa did absolutely not beat Innovation and Duckdeok at the last season finals, and neither did scarlett beat Maru and MMA. It's impossible that a foreigner ever wins vs a korean.

"A person who does not concern himself with politics has already made the political choice he was so anxious to spare himself: he is serving the ruling party." - Max Frisch
lolfail9001
Profile Joined August 2013
Russian Federation40190 Posts
October 05 2013 14:18 GMT
#363
On October 05 2013 22:33 phagga wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 05 2013 05:33 Waise wrote:
On October 04 2013 23:56 ffadicted wrote:
16 koreans... somehow I feel like WCS missed it's goal hahah
if the top 16 were something like 8 koreans and 8 foreigners, the 8 koreans would stomp, the ro8 would just be koreans anyway, and people would still complain. either that or the bracket would have koreans eliminating each other and you would end up with crappy, lopsided korean vs foreigner series in the ro8/ro4, which would make a joke out of the finals

we can either have residency locked regional finals or we can throw foreigners into the same pit as koreans, you can't have it both ways and expect foreigners to fall ass backward into top tournament spots they don't deserve


yeah right, because Naniwa did absolutely not beat Innovation and Duckdeok at the last season finals, and neither did scarlett beat Maru and MMA. It's impossible that a foreigner ever wins vs a korean.


2 exceptions that generally confirm the rule.
DeMoN pulls off a Miracle and Flies to the Moon
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
October 05 2013 14:23 GMT
#364
On October 05 2013 23:18 lolfail9001 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 05 2013 22:33 phagga wrote:
On October 05 2013 05:33 Waise wrote:
On October 04 2013 23:56 ffadicted wrote:
16 koreans... somehow I feel like WCS missed it's goal hahah
if the top 16 were something like 8 koreans and 8 foreigners, the 8 koreans would stomp, the ro8 would just be koreans anyway, and people would still complain. either that or the bracket would have koreans eliminating each other and you would end up with crappy, lopsided korean vs foreigner series in the ro8/ro4, which would make a joke out of the finals

we can either have residency locked regional finals or we can throw foreigners into the same pit as koreans, you can't have it both ways and expect foreigners to fall ass backward into top tournament spots they don't deserve


yeah right, because Naniwa did absolutely not beat Innovation and Duckdeok at the last season finals, and neither did scarlett beat Maru and MMA. It's impossible that a foreigner ever wins vs a korean.


2 exceptions that generally confirm the rule.


I absolutely loathe the expression "the exception confirms the rule". It misuse of a good expression, and very wide spread.

It is originally a latin expression "exceptio probat regulem de rebus non exceptis", the first half is that the exception confirms the rule, "de rebus non exceptis" adds "in cases not excepted" which is CRUCIAL. What it then says is that the rule (for example: "you may not ride vehicles in parks") holds in all cases, except for the explicit exceptions (For example, there's an addition to the rule which says "Except for bikes".) So if you have someone driving a motorcycle, you check whether it is among the exceptions. In this case, it is not. As the drafter of the text explicitly specified that bikes are allowed, and did not do so with motorcycles, we conclude that the drafter of the text intended to outlaw motorcycles. So we say that the exception (bike), confirms the rule (no vehicles), for all other cases (motorcycles).
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
Sandermatt
Profile Joined December 2010
Switzerland1365 Posts
October 05 2013 14:40 GMT
#365
If duckdeok looses the chances for the players might change quit a bit, how soon will we see updates?
phagga
Profile Joined February 2012
Switzerland2194 Posts
October 05 2013 15:11 GMT
#366
On October 05 2013 23:18 lolfail9001 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 05 2013 22:33 phagga wrote:
On October 05 2013 05:33 Waise wrote:
On October 04 2013 23:56 ffadicted wrote:
16 koreans... somehow I feel like WCS missed it's goal hahah
if the top 16 were something like 8 koreans and 8 foreigners, the 8 koreans would stomp, the ro8 would just be koreans anyway, and people would still complain. either that or the bracket would have koreans eliminating each other and you would end up with crappy, lopsided korean vs foreigner series in the ro8/ro4, which would make a joke out of the finals

we can either have residency locked regional finals or we can throw foreigners into the same pit as koreans, you can't have it both ways and expect foreigners to fall ass backward into top tournament spots they don't deserve


yeah right, because Naniwa did absolutely not beat Innovation and Duckdeok at the last season finals, and neither did scarlett beat Maru and MMA. It's impossible that a foreigner ever wins vs a korean.


2 exceptions that generally confirm the rule.


There is no rule, only people wanting foreigners doing bad for some reason. The two quoted examples are by far not the only times were foreigners beat koreans, and saying that koreans beat foreigners so often that we can deduce some sort of rule is just plain ignorant.
"A person who does not concern himself with politics has already made the political choice he was so anxious to spare himself: he is serving the ruling party." - Max Frisch
Plasmid
Profile Joined December 2010
57 Posts
October 05 2013 16:10 GMT
#367
a funny one in the current october 3 results:

+ Show Spoiler +
ForGG, 30550/300000, started with 1950 WCS points, 10.1833%- Hide Spoiler [IF Game Changers] -
ForGG starts in the round of 12 in IEM facing sOs, HuK
ForGG loses this match 0.00% of the time, which decreases ForGG's chances to -1.#J%.


I dont know where the problem stems for, but it made me laugh
Dragoonstorm7
Profile Joined December 2012
United States599 Posts
October 05 2013 16:36 GMT
#368
On October 05 2013 22:33 phagga wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 05 2013 05:33 Waise wrote:
On October 04 2013 23:56 ffadicted wrote:
16 koreans... somehow I feel like WCS missed it's goal hahah
if the top 16 were something like 8 koreans and 8 foreigners, the 8 koreans would stomp, the ro8 would just be koreans anyway, and people would still complain. either that or the bracket would have koreans eliminating each other and you would end up with crappy, lopsided korean vs foreigner series in the ro8/ro4, which would make a joke out of the finals

we can either have residency locked regional finals or we can throw foreigners into the same pit as koreans, you can't have it both ways and expect foreigners to fall ass backward into top tournament spots they don't deserve


yeah right, because Naniwa did absolutely not beat Innovation and Duckdeok at the last season finals, and neither did scarlett beat Maru and MMA. It's impossible that a foreigner ever wins vs a korean.


I agree with Scarlett, but not with Naniwa.
for Naniwa vs duckdeok, sure Naniwa won, but duckdeok wouldnt be anywhere near a top 8 korean lists.
for Naniwa va Inno, to my eyes Inno was on massive tilt after losing to taeja. Inno played TERRIBLE. was all caps necessary? YES; because he played that bad.
So basically in my opinion, if you try to make an argument in favor of foreigners, do it around Scarlett straight up beating the KR champ, not Naniwa winning 2 games of inno throwing tons of units away.
just my 2 cents on the issue.
oblivion awaits- dark archon (aka best unit ever)
lolfail9001
Profile Joined August 2013
Russian Federation40190 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-05 17:58:52
October 05 2013 17:00 GMT
#369
On October 06 2013 00:11 phagga wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 05 2013 23:18 lolfail9001 wrote:
On October 05 2013 22:33 phagga wrote:
On October 05 2013 05:33 Waise wrote:
On October 04 2013 23:56 ffadicted wrote:
16 koreans... somehow I feel like WCS missed it's goal hahah
if the top 16 were something like 8 koreans and 8 foreigners, the 8 koreans would stomp, the ro8 would just be koreans anyway, and people would still complain. either that or the bracket would have koreans eliminating each other and you would end up with crappy, lopsided korean vs foreigner series in the ro8/ro4, which would make a joke out of the finals

we can either have residency locked regional finals or we can throw foreigners into the same pit as koreans, you can't have it both ways and expect foreigners to fall ass backward into top tournament spots they don't deserve


yeah right, because Naniwa did absolutely not beat Innovation and Duckdeok at the last season finals, and neither did scarlett beat Maru and MMA. It's impossible that a foreigner ever wins vs a korean.


2 exceptions that generally confirm the rule.


There is no rule, only people wanting foreigners doing bad for some reason. The two quoted examples are by far not the only times were foreigners beat koreans, and saying that koreans beat foreigners so often that we can deduce some sort of rule is just plain ignorant.

But they are only example of foreigners beating top koreans.
P. S. thanks for reminding me about origin of expression. But in my case, it just confirms the rule, that players, who actually practiced ALOT in Korea's team house environment are more then capable of taking games and series from koreans, compared to most of other foreigners, who did not practice there.
DeMoN pulls off a Miracle and Flies to the Moon
Sandermatt
Profile Joined December 2010
Switzerland1365 Posts
October 05 2013 17:00 GMT
#370
On October 06 2013 01:36 Dragoonstorm7 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 05 2013 22:33 phagga wrote:
On October 05 2013 05:33 Waise wrote:
On October 04 2013 23:56 ffadicted wrote:
16 koreans... somehow I feel like WCS missed it's goal hahah
if the top 16 were something like 8 koreans and 8 foreigners, the 8 koreans would stomp, the ro8 would just be koreans anyway, and people would still complain. either that or the bracket would have koreans eliminating each other and you would end up with crappy, lopsided korean vs foreigner series in the ro8/ro4, which would make a joke out of the finals

we can either have residency locked regional finals or we can throw foreigners into the same pit as koreans, you can't have it both ways and expect foreigners to fall ass backward into top tournament spots they don't deserve


yeah right, because Naniwa did absolutely not beat Innovation and Duckdeok at the last season finals, and neither did scarlett beat Maru and MMA. It's impossible that a foreigner ever wins vs a korean.


I agree with Scarlett, but not with Naniwa.
for Naniwa vs duckdeok, sure Naniwa won, but duckdeok wouldnt be anywhere near a top 8 korean lists.
for Naniwa va Inno, to my eyes Inno was on massive tilt after losing to taeja. Inno played TERRIBLE. was all caps necessary? YES; because he played that bad.
So basically in my opinion, if you try to make an argument in favor of foreigners, do it around Scarlett straight up beating the KR champ, not Naniwa winning 2 games of inno throwing tons of units away.
just my 2 cents on the issue.


Naniwa has won against strong koreans before and at IEM he will have to do this again in order to qualify.
Dragoonstorm7
Profile Joined December 2012
United States599 Posts
October 05 2013 17:02 GMT
#371
On October 06 2013 02:00 Sandermatt wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 06 2013 01:36 Dragoonstorm7 wrote:
On October 05 2013 22:33 phagga wrote:
On October 05 2013 05:33 Waise wrote:
On October 04 2013 23:56 ffadicted wrote:
16 koreans... somehow I feel like WCS missed it's goal hahah
if the top 16 were something like 8 koreans and 8 foreigners, the 8 koreans would stomp, the ro8 would just be koreans anyway, and people would still complain. either that or the bracket would have koreans eliminating each other and you would end up with crappy, lopsided korean vs foreigner series in the ro8/ro4, which would make a joke out of the finals

we can either have residency locked regional finals or we can throw foreigners into the same pit as koreans, you can't have it both ways and expect foreigners to fall ass backward into top tournament spots they don't deserve


yeah right, because Naniwa did absolutely not beat Innovation and Duckdeok at the last season finals, and neither did scarlett beat Maru and MMA. It's impossible that a foreigner ever wins vs a korean.


I agree with Scarlett, but not with Naniwa.
for Naniwa vs duckdeok, sure Naniwa won, but duckdeok wouldnt be anywhere near a top 8 korean lists.
for Naniwa va Inno, to my eyes Inno was on massive tilt after losing to taeja. Inno played TERRIBLE. was all caps necessary? YES; because he played that bad.
So basically in my opinion, if you try to make an argument in favor of foreigners, do it around Scarlett straight up beating the KR champ, not Naniwa winning 2 games of inno throwing tons of units away.
just my 2 cents on the issue.


Naniwa has won against strong koreans before and at IEM he will have to do this again in order to qualify.

Yeah I know, sorry if i went off a bit there
I really just hate when people use that match as an example for something.
oblivion awaits- dark archon (aka best unit ever)
trudodyr
Profile Joined March 2011
182 Posts
October 05 2013 17:54 GMT
#372
On October 05 2013 23:23 Ghanburighan wrote:I absolutely loathe the expression "the exception confirms the rule". It misuse of a good expression, and very wide spread.

It is originally a latin expression "exceptio probat regulem de rebus non exceptis", the first half is that the exception confirms the rule, "de rebus non exceptis" adds "in cases not excepted" which is CRUCIAL. What it then says is that the rule (for example: "you may not ride vehicles in parks") holds in all cases, except for the explicit exceptions (For example, there's an addition to the rule which says "Except for bikes".) So if you have someone driving a motorcycle, you check whether it is among the exceptions. In this case, it is not. As the drafter of the text explicitly specified that bikes are allowed, and did not do so with motorcycles, we conclude that the drafter of the text intended to outlaw motorcycles. So we say that the exception (bike), confirms the rule (no vehicles), for all other cases (motorcycles).

Thanks, I didn't know that (and can see why it would anger you to hear the expression misused so frequently).
Dragoonstorm7
Profile Joined December 2012
United States599 Posts
October 05 2013 17:58 GMT
#373
duckdeok loses, MC wins.
Which makes MC basically a lock! yay!
Unfortunately for duckdeok, his year now basically depends on whether or not he can win the 5th place spot to season 3 finals.
oblivion awaits- dark archon (aka best unit ever)
phagga
Profile Joined February 2012
Switzerland2194 Posts
October 05 2013 18:25 GMT
#374
On October 06 2013 01:36 Dragoonstorm7 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 05 2013 22:33 phagga wrote:
On October 05 2013 05:33 Waise wrote:
On October 04 2013 23:56 ffadicted wrote:
16 koreans... somehow I feel like WCS missed it's goal hahah
if the top 16 were something like 8 koreans and 8 foreigners, the 8 koreans would stomp, the ro8 would just be koreans anyway, and people would still complain. either that or the bracket would have koreans eliminating each other and you would end up with crappy, lopsided korean vs foreigner series in the ro8/ro4, which would make a joke out of the finals

we can either have residency locked regional finals or we can throw foreigners into the same pit as koreans, you can't have it both ways and expect foreigners to fall ass backward into top tournament spots they don't deserve


yeah right, because Naniwa did absolutely not beat Innovation and Duckdeok at the last season finals, and neither did scarlett beat Maru and MMA. It's impossible that a foreigner ever wins vs a korean.


I agree with Scarlett, but not with Naniwa.
for Naniwa vs duckdeok, sure Naniwa won, but duckdeok wouldnt be anywhere near a top 8 korean lists.
for Naniwa va Inno, to my eyes Inno was on massive tilt after losing to taeja. Inno played TERRIBLE. was all caps necessary? YES; because he played that bad.
So basically in my opinion, if you try to make an argument in favor of foreigners, do it around Scarlett straight up beating the KR champ, not Naniwa winning 2 games of inno throwing tons of units away.
just my 2 cents on the issue.

Exactly as I said, people wanting foreigners to do bad for some reason.
"A person who does not concern himself with politics has already made the political choice he was so anxious to spare himself: he is serving the ruling party." - Max Frisch
Dragoonstorm7
Profile Joined December 2012
United States599 Posts
October 05 2013 19:02 GMT
#375
On October 06 2013 03:25 phagga wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 06 2013 01:36 Dragoonstorm7 wrote:
On October 05 2013 22:33 phagga wrote:
On October 05 2013 05:33 Waise wrote:
On October 04 2013 23:56 ffadicted wrote:
16 koreans... somehow I feel like WCS missed it's goal hahah
if the top 16 were something like 8 koreans and 8 foreigners, the 8 koreans would stomp, the ro8 would just be koreans anyway, and people would still complain. either that or the bracket would have koreans eliminating each other and you would end up with crappy, lopsided korean vs foreigner series in the ro8/ro4, which would make a joke out of the finals

we can either have residency locked regional finals or we can throw foreigners into the same pit as koreans, you can't have it both ways and expect foreigners to fall ass backward into top tournament spots they don't deserve


yeah right, because Naniwa did absolutely not beat Innovation and Duckdeok at the last season finals, and neither did scarlett beat Maru and MMA. It's impossible that a foreigner ever wins vs a korean.


I agree with Scarlett, but not with Naniwa.
for Naniwa vs duckdeok, sure Naniwa won, but duckdeok wouldnt be anywhere near a top 8 korean lists.
for Naniwa va Inno, to my eyes Inno was on massive tilt after losing to taeja. Inno played TERRIBLE. was all caps necessary? YES; because he played that bad.
So basically in my opinion, if you try to make an argument in favor of foreigners, do it around Scarlett straight up beating the KR champ, not Naniwa winning 2 games of inno throwing tons of units away.
just my 2 cents on the issue.

Exactly as I said, people wanting foreigners to do bad for some reason.

Rather than saying we want them to do bad, I'd say its more of a collective observation of the tournaments for the last year and a half or so and seeing 0 foreigners win. Upsets here and there are always pleasant surprises, but if you never ever win, you arent really competing. Thus we have kinda lost faith in foreigners due to lack of tourney wins. Is that fair? Maybe, maybe not. Its just where many of us are at and will stay until a foreigner wins a tourney to change our minds.
oblivion awaits- dark archon (aka best unit ever)
phagga
Profile Joined February 2012
Switzerland2194 Posts
October 05 2013 19:34 GMT
#376
But that is a different observation than what Waise was making. He said that even if 8 foreigners were at blizzcon, all 8 would drop out in the group stage, which implies that foreigners cannot win against Koreans.

I'm just frustrated that some people are so extremely negative towards foreign players. I know that Blizzcon is going to be won by a korean, but I also know that there are a few foreigners who could get far at Blizzcon.
"A person who does not concern himself with politics has already made the political choice he was so anxious to spare himself: he is serving the ruling party." - Max Frisch
painkilla
Profile Joined June 2013
United States695 Posts
October 05 2013 19:35 GMT
#377
So it Mvp qualifies for Blizzcon, it will be by the skin of his teeth. If not I will be hating on Alive for getting them free WCS points. I think the simulation might not have used the correct probabilities. It is safe to say that Korean Z/P ALWAYS win against foreigner in Bo5+. Thus the odds for matches like MC - Targa, DD-foreigner, Hyun-foreigner... etc should be like 100%.
Supernova | TY | Polt | Innovation | forGG | Lucifron | Happy
phagga
Profile Joined February 2012
Switzerland2194 Posts
October 05 2013 19:41 GMT
#378
On October 06 2013 04:35 painkilla wrote:
So it Mvp qualifies for Blizzcon, it will be by the skin of his teeth. If not I will be hating on Alive for getting them free WCS points. I think the simulation might not have used the correct probabilities. It is safe to say that Korean Z/P ALWAYS win against foreigner in Bo5+. Thus the odds for matches like MC - Targa, DD-foreigner, Hyun-foreigner... etc should be like 100%.

VortiX is korean?
"A person who does not concern himself with politics has already made the political choice he was so anxious to spare himself: he is serving the ruling party." - Max Frisch
Boucot
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
France15997 Posts
October 05 2013 19:47 GMT
#379
On October 06 2013 04:35 painkilla wrote:
So it Mvp qualifies for Blizzcon, it will be by the skin of his teeth. If not I will be hating on Alive for getting them free WCS points. I think the simulation might not have used the correct probabilities. It is safe to say that Korean Z/P ALWAYS win against foreigner in Bo5+. Thus the odds for matches like MC - Targa, DD-foreigner, Hyun-foreigner... etc should be like 100%.

99% is "the skin of his teeth" ? Mvp will easily qualify for BlizzCon.
Former SC2 writer for Millenium - twitter.com/Boucot
NovaMB
Profile Joined February 2013
Germany9534 Posts
October 05 2013 19:48 GMT
#380
+ Show Spoiler +
So NaNiwa needs pretty much a ro4 at IEM NY now, with the results from today and bad luck in Europe and Koreas placement matches he might find himself in 17th place soon (no idea at what date KR placement matches are though

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