EPTMajor League Baseball 2015 - Page 8
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AgentW
United States7725 Posts
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada16711 Posts
On October 16 2015 09:36 AgentW wrote: He used to be, then he was terrible, but he had a fine year that was driven by BAbip and a high LOB%. He'll probably regress heavily next year and potentially in this playoff. the playoffs are too small a sample size for a 3rd starter to comment on any kind of trend. tomorrow might be his last start. thus far in the playoffs Estrada has 1 great start against a heavily left handed hitting team that had the best offense in the AL in the 2nd half of the season... not too shabby. http://www.lonestarball.com/2015/8/18/9172215/texas-rangers-second-half-offensive-stats this is far and away the best year for a 31 year old who has never had more than 23 starts in his career... so saying he will "regress heavily next year" ain't sayin' much. Estrada pitching usually means Navarro will be the starting catcher. Martin > Navarro... so there is that to factor in. Unlike the implication by the guy i quoted i'll say Marco Estrada is full value for his low ERA he put up in a hitter's park while having Reyes and Collabello as basically red flag zones playing the infield and outfield respectively. Reyes was horrible at SS and Collabello had never played the outfied before.. he was equally abysmal... he had trouble judging simple fly balls all year. There is your Marco Estrada report. looking at Shin-Soo Choo's #s i think we can see why Gibbons used Price against him in game 4. | ||
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AgentW
United States7725 Posts
On October 16 2015 09:39 JimmyJRaynor wrote: the playoffs are too small a sample size for a 3rd starter to comment on any kind of trend. tomorrow might be his last start. thus far in the playoffs Estrada has 1 great start against a heavily left handed hitting team that had the best offense in the AL in the 2nd half of the season... not too shabby. http://www.lonestarball.com/2015/8/18/9172215/texas-rangers-second-half-offensive-stats this is far and away the best year for a 31 year old who has never had more than 23 starts in his career... so saying he will "regress heavily next year" ain't sayin' much. Estrada pitching usually means Navarro will be the starting catcher. Martin > Navarro... so there is that to factor in. Marco Estrada is full value for the #s he put up in a hitter's park while having Reyes and Collabello as basically red flag zones playing the infield and outfield respectively. There is your Marco Estrada report. looking at Shin-Soo Choo's #s i think we can see why Gibbons used Price against him in game 4. Oh, come off it. Clayton Kershaw's LOB% for his career is 78.3%. Estrada had a 79.2% this year which is 6% better than his career average. His BAbip of .216 led the league by a wide margin. Don't be a homer, he's severely outperformed his peripherals. | ||
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada16711 Posts
Bautista short arming the ball half the year...etc etc. Even Collabello at first  how many Blue Jays games did you actually watch live to see the mess the Jays defense was until Tulo and Revere arrived and Bautista's 4th cortisone shot finally worked? considering the park the jays are in and the defense Estrada has to put up with he is full value for the ERA he put up. | ||
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AgentW
United States7725 Posts
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada16711 Posts
with lousy defense in a small park he is full value for the low run totals he has surrendered this year. what were you expecting against his 1 start against Texas , a perfect game? he was the Blue Jays best starter in the first playoff series. and he'll probably go back to what he always was or worse because pitchers peak at 27 or 28... they don't peak at 32+ | ||
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AgentW
United States7725 Posts
On October 16 2015 09:25 Jer99 wrote: Is Estrada good? I haven't been following it long enough to know all the jays players yet I responded with "no". You replied with: On October 16 2015 09:39 JimmyJRaynor wrote: the playoffs are too small a sample size for a 3rd starter to comment on any kind of trend. Which is correct. But then you say: On October 16 2015 10:13 JimmyJRaynor wrote: what were you expecting against his 1 start against Texas , a perfect game? See the issue? I'm looking at the full season. He's not good. Look, your team is really, really good at hitting the ball a million miles and has a few top notch starters, but Marco Estrada isn't good. This isn't the hill to die on. | ||
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada16711 Posts
Estrada is Toronto's best starter in the playoffs so far this year. You mentioned some kind of regression in the playoffs...it did not happen against a really good offense ... he walked zero and struck out 4. Taking a look at his entire career he has not been good... but this game is being played in 2015... not some theoretical time in the past. TL; DR Version Gibbons picked Estrada to start game 1 because he had the best start of any Toronto pitcher in the previous playoff series. A negative to Estrada starting is that Navarro is the starting catcher when he pitches. Russell Martin is better than Dioner Navarro. | ||
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AgentW
United States7725 Posts
As for you citing a single game as validation of his abilities: if you really believe that, I'm waiting for you to start using RBIs as a measure of Josh Donaldson's talent. | ||
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada16711 Posts
On October 16 2015 10:26 AgentW wrote: As for you citing a single game as validation of his abilities: you stated a regression in the playoffs and i criticized it as too small a sample size... and then provided the 1 start that has happened in the playoffs. please read my posts On October 16 2015 09:39 JimmyJRaynor wrote: the playoffs are too small a sample size for a 3rd starter to comment on any kind of trend. tomorrow might be his last start. On October 16 2015 10:26 AgentW wrote: He plays in a super HR friendly park and has somehow black magicked his way into not giving up basically any HRs. That's sorcery that's bound to disappear any minute. there is no black magic over 181 innings in a division that was 30 games over .500 featuring 3 of the top 4 offenses in the AL. also, he did give up 24 home runs... so his black magic ain't that great any way. | ||
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neobowman
Canada3324 Posts
On October 16 2015 09:54 AgentW wrote: Oh, come off it. Clayton Kershaw's LOB% for his career is 78.3%. Estrada had a 79.2% this year which is 6% better than his career average. His BAbip of .216 led the league by a wide margin. Don't be a homer, he's severely outperformed his peripherals. The thing with Estrada is that BAbip doesn't tel the whole story. He's an extreme flyball pitcher. Take a look at his percentages and he gets a lot more pop-ups and flyballs than average. He's in the 99th percentile for the former and the 96th for the latter. He's also in the 1st percentile in number of line drives. So he gets a ton of fly balls, pop-ups, and very few line drives. Now the fly balls are dangerous when they're hit at over 100mph. But get between 94 and 75mph, and the average plummets to .041, and the slugging to .084. 65% of Estrada's flyballs, in comparison to the league average 59%, are in thiis dead ball zone. Plus, the groundballs he does get (4th percentile so very few) are hit more poorly than average. Using BAbip is useful for broad generalizations, but can differ between pitchers. It's important to look at the finer details too. Estrada is walking a fine line. If he lets his pitches get hit a bit harder, he might regress, but that goes for almost any pitcher. I don't think he's overperforming at all atm. Source | ||
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada16711 Posts
To have the 5th lowest ERA in the AL while having 18% of your starts against an offense as potent as the Yankees is a solid accomplishment. The East is the toughest division in the AL and any pitcher managing a low ERA in that shark tank of sluggers and tiny ball parks has well earned it. Marco Estrada included. The pitcher is 100% responsible for Ks, BBs and Home Runs... its a pitcher's 100% responsibility to keep the ball in the ball park and there is no "black magic" involved at all. In his only playoff start he gave up zero home runs, zero walks and 4 Ks while surrendering a sequence of bullshit ground ball base hits. his quality start against the best offense in baseball in the 2nd half of 2015 was well earned. any one claiming Estrada is all about luck is just not watching him actually pitch. They are just reading a stat sheet. Edit: Gratz to the Mets..... a Cubs/Blue Jays world series will become Canada versus the USA for the fans. | ||
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AgentW
United States7725 Posts
On October 16 2015 13:09 neobowman wrote: The thing with Estrada is that BAbip doesn't tel the whole story. He's an extreme flyball pitcher. Take a look at his percentages and he gets a lot more pop-ups and flyballs than average. He's in the 99th percentile for the former and the 96th for the latter. He's also in the 1st percentile in number of line drives. So he gets a ton of fly balls, pop-ups, and very few line drives. Now the fly balls are dangerous when they're hit at over 100mph. But get between 94 and 75mph, and the average plummets to .041, and the slugging to .084. 65% of Estrada's flyballs, in comparison to the league average 59%, are in thiis dead ball zone. Plus, the groundballs he does get (4th percentile so very few) are hit more poorly than average. Using BAbip is useful for broad generalizations, but can differ between pitchers. It's important to look at the finer details too. Estrada is walking a fine line. If he lets his pitches get hit a bit harder, he might regress, but that goes for almost any pitcher. I don't think he's overperforming at all atm. Source Keep reading my posts, I go into this. He's still an anomaly. | ||
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada16711 Posts
http://motusglobal.com/howitworks/ after 5 more years of improving on this design i think training camp pitchers will use a far better version of this product to assess the state of their pitching elbow. As it is right now, this thing is pretty good. On October 16 2015 23:55 AgentW wrote: Keep reading my posts, I go into this. He's still an anomaly. Jose Bautista and Ricky Romero's large change in performance was also anomalous. Does not mean it was luck driven in either case. The only way to know of Romero's giant decline at age 27 in 2012 was to watch him actually pitch. The only thing a guy reading a stat sheet could say about his 2012 performance up to August is "sample size too small". | ||
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Orcasgt24
Canada3238 Posts
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada16711 Posts
Volquez's pitch #100 looked like a Willie Hernandez screwgie cool pitch.. i wish he'd use it more. | ||
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
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Jer99
Canada8157 Posts
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada16711 Posts
Cliff Pennington pitching LOL this is historical. no position player has ever pitched in teh post season | ||
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Jer99
Canada8157 Posts
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