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I still don't really buy the anti-analytics Leafs argument. Leafs played counter-attack because that's what they were good at. Make a pass from Franson or Gardiner or some other third-linear to Bozak, Kessel, or Kadri off the bench and send them down the rink at full speed. If you watch Leafs highlights that's like half their goals, next to Kessel sniping from the top of the circle.
It makes perfect sense that if you play defend and counter-attack you'd put up poor possession numbers. Okay, if your only argument is that no team has ever succeeded at it, but no team really tries to do it and given the Leafs roster that's the only style that would've worked. And really it would work if they actually played defense properly and didn't suck so much at outlet passes or covering the 2nd defender out of the corner.... They had the bottom-6 depth the last 2 seasons to give some secondary scoring to cover up the fuck-ups defensively too. Half the team is run and gun, and no one can play two-way or grind in the corner. So Carlyle's entire strategy was hold them the other team to the far corner and allow weak shots that Bernier or Reimer can deflect easily (which Reimer sucked at cause Reimer has no rebound control). It's all about what the team had and the team had good players and shitty players to play counter-attack well, but they'd fuck up all the time with shitty outlet passes (literally my friends had a game everytime the leafs screwed up an outlet pass) or just forgetting to pick up a player. There were definitely team problems, but I'm still not at all convinced it had any correlation to analytics. And now tell they to play another system and this is what happens.
tldr; leafs played style that meant poor corsi, suited teammates, just sucked at the style anyways, corsi shouldn't be a factor when talking about the leafs style, except maybe they sucked even more than they should have (maybe because they sucked). like seriously watch the old games, soooo many unforced turnovers that talking about leafs corsi can't possibly have a meaning other than the players suck at passing)
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Just started reading this it is pretty good
On February 23 2015 16:25 Blisse wrote:
I still don't really buy the anti-analytics Leafs argument. Leafs played counter-attack because that's what they were good at. Make a pass from Franson or Gardiner or some other third-linear to Bozak, Kessel, or Kadri off the bench and send them down the rink at full speed. If you watch Leafs highlights that's like half their goals, next to Kessel sniping from the top of the circle.
It makes perfect sense that if you play defend and counter-attack you'd put up poor possession numbers. Okay, if your only argument is that no team has ever succeeded at it, but no team really tries to do it and given the Leafs roster that's the only style that would've worked. And really it would work if they actually played defense properly and didn't suck so much at outlet passes or covering the 2nd defender out of the corner.... They had the bottom-6 depth the last 2 seasons to give some secondary scoring to cover up the fuck-ups defensively too. Half the team is run and gun, and no one can play two-way or grind in the corner. So Carlyle's entire strategy was hold them the other team to the far corner and allow weak shots that Bernier or Reimer can deflect easily (which Reimer sucked at cause Reimer has no rebound control). It's all about what the team had and the team had good players and shitty players to play counter-attack well, but they'd fuck up all the time with shitty outlet passes (literally my friends had a game everytime the leafs screwed up an outlet pass) or just forgetting to pick up a player. There were definitely team problems, but I'm still not at all convinced it had any correlation to analytics. And now tell they to play another system and this is what happens.
tldr; leafs played style that meant poor corsi, suited teammates, just sucked at the style anyways, corsi shouldn't be a factor when talking about the leafs style, except maybe they sucked even more than they should have (maybe because they sucked). like seriously watch the old games, soooo many unforced turnovers that talking about leafs corsi can't possibly have a meaning other than the players suck at passing)
The Leafs system got them exactly one lucky playoff appearance. Other than that, they have done nothing worth noting. They get goals, but at the expense of losing possession and continually getting outscored and out shot by a very wide margin. That system did not maximize the abilities of the defense and goalies--it hung them out to dry. Plus a counterattacking offense requires your forwards to break out faster at the expense of helping out in their own end, and it requires high risk outlets to be successful. Teams don't use it as their base system because it's a shitty system
Furthermore, a couple of months in a more modern system is not enough time to evaluate whether or not the Leafs are good in it, and it ignore that a major part of the problem with the leafs is their personnel is kind of shitty too.
The main reason people bad on the Leaf's style is that said style of play inherently gives your opponent a massive possession advantage, and possession advantage has a very strong correlation with winning. It means more opportunities for the team domination possession, and less opportunities for the opponent. Even if they played that system perfectly, it would inherently give opponents many more shots over the course of a year. They're currently in the hole for about 400 Corsi events (shots of any kind, on net, blocked, or missed)
That's a lot of fucking shots/opportunities. That is the main reason why people poke fun at the Leafs and Carlyle's shitty system. Even if it worked right, teams aiming for possession control would have an automatic leg up on them.
e: and the stuff about the leafs not being fit for other styles in absolute nonsense. This is a team with Kessel, Kadri, JVR, etc up front, and a couple of mobile-ish dmen in the back. Not to mention they also got rid of Grabovski, Kulemin, McCarthur, who were all good possession players (and in the case of Grabs and Kulemin, two players who were criminally misused by Toronto)
Toronto did have parts to run a modern offense. They willingly got rid of those parts to make room for blackholes like Bozak and Clarkson.
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Carlyle took the team from one missed playoffs season to making the playoffs and barely getting eliminated. I still don't see how the possession argument plays out if the whole point of the style is that they do what they can with the 40% possession they have.
The whole premise of possession whatever hockey is that you have the puck more, you shoot more and you score more. The whole premise of the counter-attacking style is you don't have the puck as much so you do your best without the puck and then do great with the puck. It's an entirely different axiom that no one ever talks about and disregards immediately because of whatever "possession driving statistic" and "it has never been done so it must not work". They got outscored because they sucked at making plays in their own end. They got outshot because that was the point of the style. Possession something something correlation not causation. The entire strategy of Carlyle's last 2 years was that you separate shots by good opportunities and bad opportunities, and the Leafs are okay with giving up shots if they're really bad opportunity shots that the goalie should be saving. And that's what happened for the most part and drove the save percentages up because hey, it's a easy shot, you should be saving those and not giving up huge rebounds Reimer.
You say it's a shitty system. The last two years the Leafs were almost at the top of the league at some point and then promptly threw it away. You say it's possession related because your statistics point to it. I say your points about it being possession related is bullshit because their strategy is derived from a different axiom that the possession driving statistics don't make sense under. I don't really have real backing points because the Leafs had to fall off the edge so completely, but two seasons in a row is enough to warrant some suspicion, even if they somehow go on 10-20 game losing streaks immediately.
You also say it plays right into the possession style. Well it also plays right into the counter-attack style. If the premise is giving the other team possession then give them a lot of possession and make do with the opportunities you have. If you watch soccer in the world cup half the teams that aren't as offensively capable (greece I believe) play tight defense and then counter-attack all the time, and it works and you get upsets. It's not as perfect as possession (spain) and sometimes the teams are still just pretty bad but it balances out with them getting upsets once in a while if they play well.
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@Blisse
I wrote an article a while back talking about the viability of counter-attacking in hockey, which I can link here. In talking with other people the real problem with that strategy (especially in comparison to soccer) is the importance of puck luck. In soccer you never get some wild triple deflection off skates and sticks and bodies. Shot volume is important because it guarantees you more attempts to get lucky. We can talk about quality chances and blah-blah-blah, but if you shoot more you are more likely to score and it's really that simple. In a game where all the old timers talk about "getting the dirty goals" and whatnot, the logical end to that is to shoot more - hey look, another hockey axiom!
Giving possession to a team and limiting their chances is a strategy that works in soccer because of the lower probability of goals and luck. Hockey is dependent on shooting percentage variance generally outside of the defenders' control. Shoot more, score more.
That thing I wrote
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On February 24 2015 16:31 sharkeyanti wrote:@Blisse I wrote an article a while back talking about the viability of counter-attacking in hockey, which I can link here. In talking with other people the real problem with that strategy (especially in comparison to soccer) is the importance of puck luck. In soccer you never get some wild triple deflection off skates and sticks and bodies. Shot volume is important because it guarantees you more attempts to get lucky. We can talk about quality chances and blah-blah-blah, but if you shoot more you are more likely to score and it's really that simple. In a game where all the old timers talk about "getting the dirty goals" and whatnot, the logical end to that is to shoot more - hey look, another hockey axiom! Giving possession to a team and limiting their chances is a strategy that works in soccer because of the lower probability of goals and luck. Hockey is dependent on shooting percentage variance generally outside of the defenders' control. Shoot more, score more. That thing I wrote
pretty much took the words out of my mouth. Soccer also has a much larger field, and a lot more of the game is spent in the middle of the field.
also, as far as the system being a success, i don't get how you can say that given the results. Carlyle's team was 4 games above 500 in a shortened season. They weren't good, and short seasons benefit not good teams that get on runs. it's all sample size
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Ahhh what the fuck Bergevin... Montreal just traded Sekac to Anaheim for Smith-Pelly... I know we wanted a more gritty player but damn I really liked Sekac, he showed glimpses of greatness. Kid could be a huge star down the road..
Oh well I've doubted Bergevin's moves before and I'm usually wrong so here hoping this deal turns out well!
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I think he obviously had a higher ceiling than dps, but I don't get why hab fans saw a future first liner in a guy who had a fairly pedestrian year in the KHL. Marcel Hossa is awful but is a KHL allstar who constantly flirst with a ppg there. even at a younger age I would still think someone with supposed star potential would tear up an inferior league like that
at the same time, even if he has that skill, it was never going to be realized under therrien. The dude absolutely loves playing shitty vets over soff but talented players (malholtra has no business being in the nhl in 2015, let alone at the expense of someone like sekac), and adores stifling creativity and possession in favor of grit and bullshit.
i would be pissed if for no other reason the habs just fucked themselves for Fas in the future by trading Sekac months after signing with the team. Even if they win this, that will have repricussions.
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On February 25 2015 02:55 QuanticHawk wrote:
I think he obviously had a higher ceiling than dps, but I don't get why hab fans saw a future first liner in a guy who had a fairly pedestrian year in the KHL. Marcel Hossa is awful but is a KHL allstar who constantly flirst with a ppg there. even at a younger age I would still think someone with supposed star potential would tear up an inferior league like that
at the same time, even if he has that skill, it was never going to be realized under therrien. The dude absolutely loves playing shitty vets over soff but talented players (malholtra has no business being in the nhl in 2015, let alone at the expense of someone like sekac), and adores stifling creativity and possession in favor of grit and bullshit.
i would be pissed if for no other reason the habs just fucked themselves for Fas in the future by trading Sekac months after signing with the team. Even if they win this, that will have repricussions.
I'm definetely more pissed at Therrien, I put this almost 905 on his shoulders alone. Sekac never really got the proper fair chance under him, and when he did the kid showed he has some sick skills. If developed right he has the potential to be at least a solid 2nd liner if not first. Therrien's coaching overall is just starting to piss me off, he changes the lines way to much, never giving the players a full chance to develop some chemistry. I hope shortly he sets his fucking lines and stays with them for longer then a game... It's laughable that Galchenyuk is bacisally playing every position now except for his natural center position... Wouldn't be surprised is Therrien puts him in net before he lets the kid line up at Center. I mean Del La Rose is 19 and he is allowed to play the position. But Galchenyuk is now moving from left wing to right........
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On February 25 2015 03:25 Necro)Phagist( wrote:Show nested quote +On February 25 2015 02:55 QuanticHawk wrote:
I think he obviously had a higher ceiling than dps, but I don't get why hab fans saw a future first liner in a guy who had a fairly pedestrian year in the KHL. Marcel Hossa is awful but is a KHL allstar who constantly flirst with a ppg there. even at a younger age I would still think someone with supposed star potential would tear up an inferior league like that
at the same time, even if he has that skill, it was never going to be realized under therrien. The dude absolutely loves playing shitty vets over soff but talented players (malholtra has no business being in the nhl in 2015, let alone at the expense of someone like sekac), and adores stifling creativity and possession in favor of grit and bullshit.
i would be pissed if for no other reason the habs just fucked themselves for Fas in the future by trading Sekac months after signing with the team. Even if they win this, that will have repricussions. I'm definetely more pissed at Therrien, I put this almost 905 on his shoulders alone. Sekac never really got the proper fair chance under him, and when he did the kid showed he has some sick skills. If developed right he has the potential to be at least a solid 2nd liner if not first. Therrien's coaching overall is just starting to piss me off, he changes the lines way to much, never giving the players a full chance to develop some chemistry. I hope shortly he sets his fucking lines and stays with them for longer then a game... It's laughable that Galchenyuk is bacisally playing every position now except for his natural center position... Wouldn't be surprised is Therrien puts him in net before he lets the kid line up at Center. I mean Del La Rose is 19 and he is allowed to play the position. But Galchenyuk is now moving from left wing to right........
... and score 2 goals 
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40 saves for Lack tonight. If he is awesome, in 4-6 weeks when Miller returns, who takes the net? Ahh Vancouver, goalie graveyard.
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On February 25 2015 16:59 Manifesto7 wrote:
40 saves for Lack tonight. If he is awesome, in 4-6 weeks when Miller returns, who takes the net? Ahh Vancouver, goalie graveyard.
You play Lack. If he stays great then its a no brainer. If he is average then Miller takes over. No different then most teams giving the back up a few extra starts after a shutout really.
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On February 25 2015 13:38 FaCE_1 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 25 2015 03:25 Necro)Phagist( wrote:On February 25 2015 02:55 QuanticHawk wrote:
I think he obviously had a higher ceiling than dps, but I don't get why hab fans saw a future first liner in a guy who had a fairly pedestrian year in the KHL. Marcel Hossa is awful but is a KHL allstar who constantly flirst with a ppg there. even at a younger age I would still think someone with supposed star potential would tear up an inferior league like that
at the same time, even if he has that skill, it was never going to be realized under therrien. The dude absolutely loves playing shitty vets over soff but talented players (malholtra has no business being in the nhl in 2015, let alone at the expense of someone like sekac), and adores stifling creativity and possession in favor of grit and bullshit.
i would be pissed if for no other reason the habs just fucked themselves for Fas in the future by trading Sekac months after signing with the team. Even if they win this, that will have repricussions. I'm definetely more pissed at Therrien, I put this almost 905 on his shoulders alone. Sekac never really got the proper fair chance under him, and when he did the kid showed he has some sick skills. If developed right he has the potential to be at least a solid 2nd liner if not first. Therrien's coaching overall is just starting to piss me off, he changes the lines way to much, never giving the players a full chance to develop some chemistry. I hope shortly he sets his fucking lines and stays with them for longer then a game... It's laughable that Galchenyuk is bacisally playing every position now except for his natural center position... Wouldn't be surprised is Therrien puts him in net before he lets the kid line up at Center. I mean Del La Rose is 19 and he is allowed to play the position. But Galchenyuk is now moving from left wing to right........ ... and score 2 goals
Haha I'll gladly eat my words if he keeps putting up points like that on the right wing. Though I still say he should be playing the position he was drafted to play.
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On February 25 2015 03:25 Necro)Phagist( wrote:Show nested quote +On February 25 2015 02:55 QuanticHawk wrote:
I think he obviously had a higher ceiling than dps, but I don't get why hab fans saw a future first liner in a guy who had a fairly pedestrian year in the KHL. Marcel Hossa is awful but is a KHL allstar who constantly flirst with a ppg there. even at a younger age I would still think someone with supposed star potential would tear up an inferior league like that
at the same time, even if he has that skill, it was never going to be realized under therrien. The dude absolutely loves playing shitty vets over soff but talented players (malholtra has no business being in the nhl in 2015, let alone at the expense of someone like sekac), and adores stifling creativity and possession in favor of grit and bullshit.
i would be pissed if for no other reason the habs just fucked themselves for Fas in the future by trading Sekac months after signing with the team. Even if they win this, that will have repricussions. I'm definetely more pissed at Therrien, I put this almost 905 on his shoulders alone. Sekac never really got the proper fair chance under him, and when he did the kid showed he has some sick skills. If developed right he has the potential to be at least a solid 2nd liner if not first. Therrien's coaching overall is just starting to piss me off, he changes the lines way to much, never giving the players a full chance to develop some chemistry. I hope shortly he sets his fucking lines and stays with them for longer then a game... It's laughable that Galchenyuk is bacisally playing every position now except for his natural center position... Wouldn't be surprised is Therrien puts him in net before he lets the kid line up at Center. I mean Del La Rose is 19 and he is allowed to play the position. But Galchenyuk is now moving from left wing to right........
to be fair, galchenyuk has had his best year thurs far, and he's not been good on faceoffs at all in his career (this is his best year and he's only at 46%). I think it's ok to try to push your C to the outside if he's that bad on faceoffs. What's more annoying is when you take a C who is good on draws and at defense and move him outside like the Rangers did with Dubinsky before they moved him. That one made no sense to me, even if he was still good at LW.
Florida apparently fucked themselves on the Bergenheim trade. They only got a 3rd for him (and they had to give a 7th too) after asking for at least a 2nd. The guy's been one of the most coveted deadline guys and they decided to scratch him a few times which dropped his value. I think it's a good top 9 pick up for Minny though.
I still think the walls fall off of Dubnyk sooner rather than later. He reminds me of Brian Elliot, who more or less reminds me of Osgood. Average-ish goalie playing well behind a pretty good group of skaters.
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Yeah but keep in mind people said the same about Nashville dropping off sooner or later and they really haven't. Dubnyk can ride this wave the whole year if he believes he's as good as he's playing right now. Next year I wouldn't base his performance solely on this year, however, and make him out to be something he's not.
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yeah but Rinne actually has a long history of success, dubnyk does not.
people expect Nashville to cool because their resurgence is on the backs of a rookie and some talented castoffs in riberio and neal, and for a long while their special teams sucked. since dec though I think theyvebeen second or so in PP, and the team continues to get good play from all 4 lines.
they're not like the Avs from a year ago, where virtually everything pointed to them being a lucky but bad team like the leafs in their recent playoff year.
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Well I guess only time will tell if Nashville or Dubnyk cools off.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
rangers recent generosity with guys like glass costing them now that negotiation with zuccarello isn't going well and they are talking about trading him. smh
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I would think there is a roughly zero percent chance of trading him (unless we're talking about a return on par with Cally for MSL). He's far too important to the team's chances this year, which honestly are probably even better than last year. I don't see that happening though. The Rangers have some big cotnracts up next year, so if they were to trade him it would have to either be for someone good on a cheap contract (doubtful) or an expiring one that makes the team better. I think the team views Hagelin as far more expendable, esp since Duke is a LW too.
Ultimately I do think they make something happen with Zucc, just maybe not before the season is over. I'm cool with low-mid 4s for him. Maybe as high as 5 depending on the term. He's obviously a solid top 6 winger who you can expect at least .6ppg from. He was a lot better on the pp last year, but the 2nd pp unit is kind of sucky this year.
I do wish they scooped up Santorelli. Hayes has looked good at times, and probably has a good future, but the roster really really really needs a top 9 center who is at least 50% on draws.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
it's not likely for reasons you mentioned but it is still very concerning, esp with fear that they may not value zuccarello correctly. we've seen them extend girardi for a stupid amount and make other questionable choices among their own players
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The staal extension was more bothersome. At least Girardi had been playing at a high level sometime in the past 2 years (though the 2nd half of that contract is gonna hurt as he continues to age and slow). However, his style of play also nicely compliments McDonagh.
The Staal contract was purely based on what he did years ago, and his name. Granted, part of the reason his numbers, traditional and fancy, are so meh is due to deployment. But he's hardly the young up and comer he was 5 years ago. At this point it's safe to say he's more a 4-5 defenseman than a 2-3, but they paid him like one. I honestly would have preferred that we just go into the offseason trying to sign him cheaper, and let him walk if the terms were not more in line with his production. Plain and simple: 'defensive' defensemen should not be getting $5+ a year. It was stupid with Volchekov on the devils, it was dumb with Orpik, and Staal is better than both in all facets but he's still in that mold these days
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EPT
