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On February 18 2015 13:05 Necro)Phagist( wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2015 12:29 Zdrastochye wrote:
Watching the Capitals for like 2-3 games tells you all you need to know about why Ovech has such an awful +/-. He doesn't try to play defense. His trips into his own end result in him wanting to push the puck up more then he wants to go after the puck. Imagine playing 4v5 in your own zone when your best line is on the ice. Yet he still has a higher +/- this year then Crosby, Patrick Kane, Voracek, Seguin, Tavares, Giroux, Getzlaf, Malkin, Stamkos and tons of other players. +11 is far from an awful +/- I get that in the past he has had a terrible +/- and of course he is not a defensive player in any sense of the term. But the dude is leading the league in goals and has higher plus minus then everyone ahead of him in overall points right now.
Because +/- doesn't tell the whole story, that's why advanced metrics exist to prove in better ways the effectiveness of a player. I never criticized his goal scoring ability, but obviously in the past if you don't play defense when you're on a mediocre team then that'll happen to you. Backstrom didn't have nearly as bad of a +/-, while being on the same team. It doesn't tell the whole story, but not playing both sides of the ice is why more people don't respect Ovie as one of the best right now. He could be, if only he tried more.
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On February 18 2015 14:01 Zdrastochye wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2015 13:05 Necro)Phagist( wrote:On February 18 2015 12:29 Zdrastochye wrote:
Watching the Capitals for like 2-3 games tells you all you need to know about why Ovech has such an awful +/-. He doesn't try to play defense. His trips into his own end result in him wanting to push the puck up more then he wants to go after the puck. Imagine playing 4v5 in your own zone when your best line is on the ice. Yet he still has a higher +/- this year then Crosby, Patrick Kane, Voracek, Seguin, Tavares, Giroux, Getzlaf, Malkin, Stamkos and tons of other players. +11 is far from an awful +/- I get that in the past he has had a terrible +/- and of course he is not a defensive player in any sense of the term. But the dude is leading the league in goals and has higher plus minus then everyone ahead of him in overall points right now. Because +/- doesn't tell the whole story, that's why advanced metrics exist to prove in better ways the effectiveness of a player. I never criticized his goal scoring ability, but obviously in the past if you don't play defense when you're on a mediocre team then that'll happen to you. Backstrom didn't have nearly as bad of a +/-, while being on the same team. It doesn't tell the whole story, but not playing both sides of the ice is why more people don't respect Ovie as one of the best right now. He could be, if only he tried more.
Well if you're saying +/- is horrible and doesn't tell the whole story, both things I agree fully with. Then why bring +/- up at all? Just say he is terrible at playing defense which he is. I'd still take him on my team in a fucking heart beat but no one in their right mind is going to argue that Ovie is good at or even tries to be good at playing defense.
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Just because we both dislike it doesn't mean it's not a real thing? I mean, nobody likes hug parties but I can bring it up and point out something simplistic like "it's bad because he plays no defense" and also shit all over +/- as a metric. You would take him in a heartbeat, but who would you rather have?
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Regarding the whole +/- thing, it's important to remember what Coyotes coach Dave Tippett said a while back when discussing "advanced" stats. They felt Player 1 defenseman was better at the art of defending than Player 2. But Player 2 was defending so much less - because he pushed the play forward - that it was way better having Player 2 out there.
Point being, who cares if Ovie isn't the world's best defender? He makes his team appreciably better, pushing the play forward. I just don't understand how people think this guy is bad because he's not Patrice Bergeron.
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Probably because they're in love with the guy.
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LW also aren't typically asked to do a ton of defending either, which makes it really silly to compare him to Bergeron or any other centers where that is a fundamental part of that position. A center getting worked on corsi against to that number would be alarming. A first line LW is usually out there to focus on offense.
But yeah the general idea is that while Ovechkin may not be particularly good in defense, he generates far, far, far more chances than he gives up simply by being a beast at possession and creating a ton of shots. That's where his value lies.
that tippet example is best visualized on the caps as well. it's basically Green vs Oprik. Orpik is obviously better at defending, but he also spends much more time doing so because of a mix of zone starts, and because he's not nearly as fast or as good moving the puck as green.
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Pretty sure the Oilers and Bruins just set the NHL record for longest time without a goal in the shootout. 12 round and the first 23 shooters did not score. Shooter 24 did though so the Oilers win. Marincin had a good deke. Pretty sure I saw that wave over the puck move he did in the mighty ducks movies haha
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meanwhile kings are on 6-game winning streak, already in the playoff zone...
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a day or two late but that rangers-isles tilt from earlier in the week was crazy. that's gonna be a fantastic series if they meet up. the isles are stupid deep up front.
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On February 19 2015 18:03 fLyiNgDroNe wrote:
meanwhile kings are on 6-game winning streak, already in the playoff zone...
Wild are also 9-1-1 since the All-Star break. Looking really good, Dubnyk continues to play well, offense and defense both looking really solid. The only thing that may be a problem is mounting injuries.
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On February 20 2015 00:23 QuanticHawk wrote:
a day or two late but that rangers-isles tilt from earlier in the week was crazy. that's gonna be a fantastic series if they meet up. the isles are stupid deep up front.
it's going to be fantastic in terms of atmosphere but the islanders are going to get rocked if they meet. halak is performing about at par in the league and that's going to really screw them in the playoffs. they need him to get much better if they want to make it past first round.
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So NHL is going in deep into advanced stats, hiring SAP to set up not just a richer data set but also to build predictive models. Which is nice. Although I am surprised individual teams that are rich enough havent already done this on their own volition.
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maybe tge should 'watch' the
games
and maybe then they will s'ee' that the statheads are 0-10 in the playoffs lol.
don cherry said that if you can bake stats in an oven then the pie will taste like crayons whihc is pretty much
'100'
% what they're trying to do but WHAT do I KNOW i'm not an 'NHL'
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On February 21 2015 08:28 Blisse wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2015 00:23 QuanticHawk wrote:
a day or two late but that rangers-isles tilt from earlier in the week was crazy. that's gonna be a fantastic series if they meet up. the isles are stupid deep up front. it's going to be fantastic in terms of atmosphere but the islanders are going to get rocked if they meet. halak is performing about at par in the league and that's going to really screw them in the playoffs. they need him to get much better if they want to make it past first round.
The rangers are 1-2 vs them this season, and lost the first two games by a combined score of 9-3. Frankly they were outplayed in that crazy game until about the last period really.
The isles are built on a similar model to the Hawks. When you have the kind of skill and depth they have at forward, and you have a bunch of dmen that help you continue to drive possession, you control the tempo of games and don't need much more than league average goaltending.
Seriously, if you like hockey, you are doing yourself a disservice by not catching more of their games this year. They're crazy fun to watch, and they're actually good.
I think a NYR-NYI could definitely go either way because the Rangers are very deep as well, and they have a perennial top 3 goalie that can steal games. But I would hardly say the Rangers will smash them in the playoffs. The only way I could see that happening is if the Isles for some reason totally abandoned the puck possession gameplay that carried them this year.
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My hope with the NHL stats thing is that they don't push the kind of be-all predictive modeling that has hit MLB and to some extent the NBA. Because some of these statistics are better models of player ability than points and +/- there is a tendency to use rankings as absolute. (e.g. WAR in baseball and PER in basketball). It will be important for those who want to use the new stuff but are new to the topic to understand deviation from the mean, the value of possession statistics, and importantly the "Relative to teammates" stuff. Even though that's our best method of possession metric evaluation on an individual level (Corsi Rel Qualcomp as it were), it's far from a perfect model.
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Virtually anyone who pays attention to that stuff treats it as an inexact science that is currently the best possible methods. It's best for in between the lines stuff, like explaining Zajac's value since he puts up shit for points, or analyzing how teams deploy their best players.
people treating these stats as absolute really only exist in the heads of retards like JimmyJRaynor.
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Well my concern is that with the NHL putting them out on their own platform it will reach a larger audience. Which I think is generally a good thing, but could be problematic due to people maybe not on JimmyJ's level, but sort of a weird groupthink about what refers to as a "good" player.
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Sharks better put the hurt on the Kings tonight.
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EPT
