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[M][Cap] Tortoise Mafia
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
/in | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
I'll check in later when there is stuff to read. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On April 20 2016 08:11 DoYouHas wrote: You expressed an opinion about Plynching and then joke-scummed Damdred. The opinion has nothing to do with Damdred, he just prompted it. Gum asked Damd to give him a reason to think HTS was more likely to be scum for real. Then, after his question is blown off with another joke, goes back to a joking tone and vote. It is the shift from a pressuring tone back to a joking tone for no reason that caught my eye. Long explanation for a small feeling, but whatever. This feels kinda nitpicky and more a narrative you are projecting on what Gum did than what actually happened LS is a bit interesting, he's half joking but a bit too serious for the start of the game imo. On April 20 2016 08:50 LightningStrike wrote: I was just being blunt on what I thought thought Gumshoe had said and I was making it a tiny bit of a fun joke because I hate trump myself but his supporters are even worse :\ Anyways Gumshoe is likely town based on my only game playing with him in Storm with his style of posting matching his style of posting here. I really don't think a scum gumshoe would vote anyone this early in the game and breaking down a case like that. He goes into defensive mode here pretty quick, and his stance on Gum does a 180 here. (He said his vote was weird before, but here he says scum!Gum prob wouldn't vote anyone this early) Though tbf Gum did make a WoT post between then, still kinda a sudden flop. LS also way overuses that pic of the guy smoking a blunt in tinfoil, which I only mention kus it kinda bugs me... even if it's a good tinfoil pic. Koshi and SL are both underwhelming to me atm, but meh. Shape has me slightly worried due to the way he's setting up a posting style for himself. Prob not a good way to explain it. I like Gum for the amount of content he's putting out and for having similar thoughts to my own. That's about all I got for the moment. Well at least all I feel like sharing atm. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On April 20 2016 18:28 Fecalfeast wrote: Ticktock can be town, anyone up for gsl? Yep. Hopefully the games aren't so one sided tonight. Obligatory game related question: What are your thoughts on Damdred right now FF? | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On April 20 2016 18:51 Fecalfeast wrote: I think it's weird for everyone to have so many reads so early in the game, to be honest. It's tempting to townread everyone who's doing things right away but really anyone could give an opinion on everyone that's posted with sofew posts actually saying anything. Basically a long winded way of saying IDK maybe town? 5 btw I didn't ask for your reads just what your thoughts were. In fact if you notice in last big post I didn't call anyone town or scum (thought you might imply that based off what I said). So "idk maybe town" isn't really what I was hoping for. Mixed feelings about Koshi's push on FF, on the one hand I like the pressure but I'm not seeing anything particularly scummy about FF. In fact if I had to point to anything that might make me lean scum on FF it would be his lazy townread on me, but Koshi kinda did that too. + Show Spoiler + Part of me wonders if Koshi was trying to buddy me in #116. Calls my post "really good" and sets the bar, and proceeds to imitate the formatting I used. Just a tinfoil thought... I guess I agree with HtS about FF too, I've seen him lazy as town and scum. Tbh I'm not sure he's really done anything alignment indicative yet, partially why I asked him about Damdred (figuered he plays with Damdred a lot so might have some thoughts). @LS what made you have this expectation of me? TT post irked me a bit yes because considering the start of the game I would expect him to try to stir up discussion sooner rather than later due to post restrictions :\ Also why did you bring up your last scum game when you are saying HtS is going after you for being an easy target? On April 20 2016 23:49 LightningStrike wrote: I also starting to think HTS is scum because she picking a easy target history wise in me and she just saw me play in cell as scum so if she is mafia she got a perfect opportunity to do it here. IIRC you played fairly well in that game and have been working to improve your play in general. So that kinda works against you being an "easy target". Just feels like OMGUS to me, and kinda weak omgus at that. Part of that is that you spent 4 posts on this point, but didn't really say anything in any of them. On April 21 2016 01:26 Tumblewood wrote: I liked LS's comment that Tictock was making a post to say that he wouldn't be contributing. The only people I am considering as possible scum right now are you, Shape, and TT but that's obviously subject to change. I am townleaning Koshi because of his solid entrance, but I don't think that Damdred has done anything he couldn't do as scum. I am also getting used to your style, so I can't yet be sure whether your method of reading me is scummy or just unfamiliar. It would also help to know whether you have a tendency to be overexplainy as town/scum. I made a post saying I'd be around later, idk how you interpenetrate that as saying I won't be contributing. Sure if I never followed that up then this is a point, but you seem to be ignoring the fact that I did follow up... So why are you (or were you in this post) thinking that I or HtS are mafia? You actually said this: HtS is throwing me off because he's (she's?) scumreading me and LS and those are the only two people I'm thinking are town so far. Which besides being kinda funny (you are only thinking that you are town) it's odd that you put LS on the same level of townyness as yourself. Was there more to this read or is it just because you like his comment about my open? Getting towny vibes from Koshi now, #148 and #149 in particular feels like a townie pushing his thoughts. Also kinda like the latest couple of posts from FF and I kinda agree with his point about Fidei's opening. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
4. Shapelog 6. Fidei86 7. DoYouHas 8. Tumblewood 9. GlowingBear 11. LightningStrike So whoever is town in this list if you could pick it up a little... ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/ERxkPzh.jpg) | ||
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United States6052 Posts
On April 21 2016 05:14 Fidei86 wrote: 2/40 @TT do you 'kind of' agree with it or do you actually agree wh it. My opening wasn't long and FF's point wasn't complicated. Not sure I see much middle ground. It seems kind of a lame agreement-but-not-really from you. But I shall read the rest of your posts / the game before deciding for sure. I got to p7 before my swim. But all I really noticed was LS was making points. So I should re-read from the start. Which I will. I kind-of agree with it in the sense that his point tracks, but a weak open doesn't necessarily make you mafia. I'm not sure I'll have much time tonight for this so I think I'm going to place my vote on Tumble for now. His opening consisted of quoting and responding to 3 posts, but really had no content to it. Just feels like a "look at me talking about stuff" kinda post. + Show Spoiler + On April 20 2016 10:02 Tumblewood wrote: I've been considering trying a meta like this too. Think I'm going to join you this game. Why do you take this opportunity to talk about plynches I give this post a 1 out of 1. There wasn't much to make out of this, but you made all you could. Well done. Bam look at this efficiency I do in one post what you do in three Also was that gumshoe vote not a joke His push on shape about plynches doesn't really make much sense. I just don't get why Shape saying he dislikes policy lynches is so important to Tumble, feels more like he is making something out of nothing. + Show Spoiler + On April 20 2016 14:38 Tumblewood wrote: Shape, why did you use Damdred's obvious joke as an opportunity to discuss plynches? I know that he mentioned them, but your post was a non sequitur still. Please explain. On April 20 2016 23:57 Tumblewood wrote: Shape is dangerously close to a "disappointing answers" scumread. HtS is throwing me off because he's (she's?) scumreading me and LS and those are the only two people I'm thinking are town so far. The arguments feel a bit stretched but so is everything at this stage. Null for now but will become a scumread if this continues. He says: me [Tumblewood] and LS and those are the only two people I'm thinking are town so far. With pretty weak reasoning for the LS townread... His scumreads are weak. + Show Spoiler + Shape- for not giving better answers to his Plynch questions? HtS - kus she is scumreading his townreads (himself and LS) Myself- Kus my first post said I would come back to the game later. It also doesn't seem like he's reading that game too closely. His read on me is based on my first post but doesn't seem to have noticed I've made more posts than that. Also this series of posts doesn't seem like he's reading very closly/not paying attn. On April 21 2016 02:37 Tumblewood wrote: Like this post but mostly because it affirms what I was already saying. Why don't you want to be the driving force behind conversation? Also like this post, GB gets to be a townlean for now. Solid, original insight. On April 21 2016 02:40 Tumblewood wrote: Actually no The post I think you're talking about-- are you sure that's serious? Could easily be a joke or to get a reaction. ##Vote: Tumblewood | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
His list post wasn't terrible and I kinda doubt he'd back off LS with the reasoning "hes so cute and trying hard" as scum. So while SL is being very low key this game I'm not feeling like that is scum indicative. Feeling ok about Fidei now as well. He seems like he is invested in solving the game. I think HtS is town. Everything she's been posting looks to me like she is trying to question and evaluate people fairly. The only thing I see people scum reading her for was for her saying that activity is a bad way to read FF (she's right, it's usually a bad metric for anyone since both alignments can be lazy). I just don't see it, and she is putting out loads on content and several of her points have mirrored my own thinking so I'm inclined to believe she is town. At the very least I think she is a terrible D1 lynch given the effort/content she is making. I think I'm going to take a nap or something then try to reread this game since it's pretty short. Right now I'm inclined to think scum is in: Shapelog - None of his posts have stuck out to me, he's kinda background noise LS - Just feels off, feels like he's wasting posts and has very little to actually add Tumblewood - that post where he says "me and LS are the people I'm thinking are town" really bugs me, and I really don't get why he's so sure on that townread on LS. GB - All I see is him doing is tunneling SL for a silly point that never makes him mafia. Tbh though I'm not really confident in any of my reads right now. Kinda thinking it might be a good idea to lynch into people who are not really contributing just so that later days become a bit easier and the game stays active. GB would be my pick if we go that route. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
And screw trying to make this a content rich post, I doubt I'm ever getting close to 40 posts this cycle. | ||
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That reads post from GB actually seems pretty good after a quick read. A bit hesitent to call him town though because I've seen him screw around and save his effort for EoD before as scum. Still his thoughts felt pretty coherent and reasonsble ... Idk I think I'll reevalueate after rereading the game. @HtS About the time. I asked FF whathis thoughts on Damdred where I glanced back at his filter myself. I got the sense that his early posts where half joking half stirring up discussion which made me lean town. Since then I haven't gotten any strong feels off him. The posts I quoted from Tumble about GB felt off to me since Tumble jumped in early on to tell GB that he was joking, but then called GB's case on SL "solid thinking" when it was about the same thing he was saying was a joke earlier. Then he caught that and retracted that read a bit. It came off to me like Tumble wasn't paying attention to what GB was talking about there even though he was around when GB first started questioning those posts from SL. @ Shape, My read on Tumble hasn't really changed. That line just continues to bug me kus it's a weird thing for town to say. He basically said he considers LS to be as towny as himself, which either means hes totally sure LS is town or that he's not really thinking of himself as town. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
I actually like Gum a lot less going back through. His case on damdred is pretty weak, but it's pretty weird that he spent almost as much effort talking about why is own case is weak as he did talking about why his vote wasn't a joke. Then he goes and retracts it immediately. + Show Spoiler + On April 20 2016 08:39 gumshoe wrote: you assume I meant it as a joke : P I didnt like how Damdred made an identical filler post twice, ! he then wasted a second post saying the same thing / : I came into to this game looking for a specific kind of post from scum early. It would fill two cirterias. 1: it would be fluff (policy lynch) 2: it would be the kind of posts that draw in responses drawing towns attention to a policy lynch based off joke reasons fits these 2 criteria, the goal of which is to burn posts from multiple townies concerning shit that is unreadable. Also the serious questions in my first post to him are jokes, not because I meant them jokingly, but because the questions do not get meaningful answers, whereas the vote can actually get good responses. so yeah, the vote was as series a vote as one can make on page 2 of a game of mafia. the joke was a truth and the questions lead only to lies / : also seeing damdred act a little forced at the start reminded me of this, (his reasoning for wanting to go to champions) I figure his current mindset is pushing him to make bigger plays as ether faction than he would typically. new section- why gumshoe is wrong. 1: How else are people supposed to get stuff rolling aside from filler?-answer- meh 2: Why would damdred sweep into defend you if hes scum? answer-wifom? Yeah does seem like that was a good opportunity to pounce. 3: why didnt you bring this all up right away? - wanted to see how people would respond. not disappointed. 4: Whats wrong with trying hard? you do it all the time (except when you dont) -answer- meh 5: arent you wrong like six times a game gumshoe? -answer- shut up, this heres the one, gonna catch em all day 1 : P overall case stability-3/10 On April 20 2016 08:46 gumshoe wrote: admittedly it's not a very good case on you / : I'm just gonna assume I was flat out wrong, ##unvote this is about the opportunism I was expecting / : but it's not very strong and it doesn't feel like hes baiting someone else in to come after me, just posting his feels. slight townie read (5) All I see later in his filter is a slight suspiscion of Shape that goes nowhere, a strong? townread on HtS, a townread on LS that I actually hate (He's town because he's omgusing HtS and remembering past games...what?) maybe he messed up his quotes (no idea why Damdred's is there) and I'm missing something... On April 21 2016 03:04 gumshoe wrote: this paranoia reads to me as townie as ls it shows ls is keeping games in the back of his mind as he plays. Which makes me think hes trying to improve as we speak, something scum tend to lack as scum tend to improve in alot of other different ways that have little to do with past games (better lunging, anti association, ect). Just looking over the case/retraction and further posts I get the sense gum is having a hard time looking for scum and his absence from the game for over a day now kinda resonates with that. Still rereading, just wanted to get that down and out before I get distracted by something else. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On April 21 2016 06:20 Koshi wrote: I forgot why I would be mad at you so no. LS is ok for now. 3 good posts. No fluff. Seems honest. Pushes game forward. All based on his train of thought. Why would we kill this guy? I'm using a whole post to call this read on LS bullshit. LS made probably more fluff posts than anyone and the last 2 of these "good posts" are just LS useing weak meta to justify an omgus scumread on HtS and a townread on Tumble. The sad thing is that since this is Koshi I'm not sure if this read being terrible means anything... Is this still your read on LS Koshi? + Show Spoiler + In case you missed the subtext of this post... No... I'm not finding anything towny about LS in this read-through either. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On April 22 2016 05:48 Damdred wrote: Also the vote count looks exceptionally nasty. I don't think ls or hts should,be up for lynch today. Especially ls hrs been one towny mother fuckers this game. Koshis is never scum here I think so SL is voting someone who he thinks is probably town but doesn't care another scum point. Tt and did really aren't pushing as hard as I thought. Any way I think we need to get this down a bit more to a couple wagons to,get real,information instead of so spread out doing whatever we want. And no ls no lynching hts today maybe tommorow, hoe she's randomly dropping names to see if people think they ate scum bothers me. Anyway. What is making you townread LS so hard? I never recall you saying much about it and most of the townreads I see on him feel pretty bad. I kinda want to lynch him just for saying this (I'm somewhat certain it wasn't a joke) If he [SL] thought the Earth was flat I would of called him scum for that fact. Plus I just see him posting a lot with little content. I kinda stopped rereading btw... I found myself skimming after pg 10 and loosing focus so... yea. Anyways... On April 22 2016 04:53 Tumblewood wrote: The reads post from GB seems good + he sometimes screws around until EoD = still hesitant to call him town? I don't see why that would make you more hesitant. Re: GB, that was because filters don't give context. Re: LS, of course I'm more confident in my towniness than LS. I said I've seen him save his effort for EoD as scum (re: Devil Inside Mafia), so him doing that here makes me hesitant even if I liked the content. And regarding the bolded, then why did you make this statement? On April 20 2016 23:57 Tumblewood wrote: Shape is dangerously close to a "disappointing answers" scumread. HtS is throwing me off because he's (she's?) scumreading me and LS and those are the only two people I'm thinking are town so far. The arguments feel a bit stretched but so is everything at this stage. Null for now but will become a scumread if this continues. It boggles my mind that town would refer to themselves like that. Idk part of me thinks SL could be town, but I can't really find anything to back that up... he's been really lackluster and looking over his filter I don't see any motivation to find scum really. I'm also warming up to the idea of lynching gumshoe the more I think about it. | ||
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On April 22 2016 06:16 Damdred wrote: Idk I kinda just want to lynch sl He thinks koshi is town and voted him anyway total throw away vote. Hasn't really done anything. His ls read is strange to a point so are a few others. But I'm having a hard time finding someone I want to lynch in the actives I feel like I'm having more of an issue finding people I solidly think are town this game. Koshi feels like town Koshi, but he's kinda attacked half the game and his LS read was bull. HtS and Fidei are probably my strongest townreads based on tone, activity, and drive to solve the game. You (Damdred) strike me as town for starting off trying to generate discussion and trying to lead town now when votes are all over. Shape feels a little better to me having reread the game. I thought the way he approached a few of his reads felt towny, though tbf I think I'm largely going on something I noticed about his read on me so I take it with a grain of salt. GB and FF are floating in a "I think they are town... maybe" space for me. Which leaves me: 2. sicklucker 7. DoYouHas 8. Tumblewood 11. LightningStrike 12. gumshoe | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On April 22 2016 06:29 Damdred wrote: LS is town reading people for ok reasons, isn't being lazy. Is going out of his way to scum read people and somewhat pushing a lynch. Scum ls is the most passive person in the world and waits and sheep's is lazy and usually doesn't have scum reads. Ie he is town here. Plus all his posts feel ok On April 22 2016 06:31 Damdred wrote: Plus he's being lynched atm and doesn't really care about surviving or giving up his push. He's so town atm. And no I don't think gum is a good lynch. Well at least you have better reasons to townread him than most people... @Gum Meh. Though if my feelings regarding LS are infact unfounded then I do like your town list there. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On April 22 2016 06:44 gumshoe wrote: My issue with tick is not that he accused me, it's that he first town read me and then scum read me for what was kind of the same content. Maybe he just didn't read throughly the first time but his pounce followed by double back reads to me as hunting for fault. Also sick is now doc holiday. We may now lynch him if there is no better target, I am used to far more activity from him and he seems a bit more defensive/reserved then usual I did pretty clearly state that I was rereading the game and stuff... At the start of the game I liked that you were putting out what felt like a lot of content. Reading it again it wasn't nearly as much as you backtracked off stuff as fast as you put it out there (re: your damdred case where you made like 5-6 points as to why it was bad in the same post you defended your vote not being a joke...) Kinda uneasy now as well since you are just now showing up after quite a long absence for the last ~hr of the day and after there was the signs that maybe a wagon could get going on you. | ||
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On April 22 2016 07:00 Koshi wrote: sicklucker has been posting the last 13mins in the other game it seems. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/506344-a-normal-game-just-for-jat-3?page=91 That would be really a dick move to his scum partners. Isn't also a dick move to his fellow town players? | ||
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United States6052 Posts
On April 22 2016 07:03 sicklucker wrote: oh votings today I thought it was tormorow? why am I being lynched I gotta ask I think at this point the onus is on you to tell us why we shouldn't lynch you. As in, you really haven't done much at all this game. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + That is pretty bad huh? + Show Spoiler + Honestly I'm just not sure who I'd preffer to lynch... + Show Spoiler + SL's sudden return could him just trying to shake off the lynch if he's scum here though... but for some reason I'm inclined to believe him | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On April 22 2016 07:14 gumshoe wrote: I kinda get the feel sl doesn't care about this game, normally when you have scum mates your kinda invested / : as you let down your team when you scrub it up. Ff is the better choice methinks. How come you are not pushing me? | ||
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Tictock
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On April 22 2016 07:19 gumshoe wrote: Cause it's not happening, and my day is shit anyways so maybe that's for the best. also my cp is kinda fucked up so posting this all from phone, I don't feel cozy really pushing someone without quotes and time stamps. And yet you joined the SL wagon and now the FF wagon without either of those while you seemed to return to the game with a scumread on me... Feels like you are being pretty opportunistic here and just going with the flow rather than pursing your own thoughts and reads. | ||
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Seems like it's gunna happen regardless and nobody agrees with my other reads so bleh. Maybe I'm wrong. *fingers crossed* | ||
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On April 22 2016 07:27 Damdred wrote: And Tt doesn't want to consolidate anywhere just waste his vote so anti town Humm yea you could be scum. You know I do this all the time is the votes not close and I dont like the wagon. | ||
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Tictock
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On April 22 2016 07:29 Damdred wrote: Get on his then. But you are so anti town here tr Yea... I didn't want to lynch HtS either. I mean you were the one saying we shouldn't lynch LS or HtS an hour ago... None of my lynches were gunna happen. And why are you singling me out for solo voting when you've seen me do it as town in this exact situation? Shoker about that flip. I'm gunna mull things over for awhile and I need to check where my post count is as well. | ||
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On April 22 2016 07:38 Damdred wrote: Because you were the only on and gb I believe who were actively bad,mouthing the lynch without doing Jack shit basically. All of you solo voters were anti town at best. Eh, I can't argue with this actually. I prob should have at least yolo voted gum with fidei, but it felt like it wouldn't matter anyways. Also... On April 22 2016 07:40 Tumblewood wrote: NO gdi why did you all sheep me. Told you not to but you just wouldn't listen. Shape/hts/gum on the tail end of the wagon... Usually i'd say there's one scum on the wagon but there might be two. Running out of phone battery though but will definitely be here before EoN1 (probably tonight though) This makes me think my vote was probably in the right place anyways. | ||
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On April 22 2016 07:35 sicklucker wrote: ballz wont be able to catch up till later tonight. go raptors! Fairly dissapointed there was no follow through on this. Means SL basically just showed up as a wagon formed up on him, complained he didn't have time kus of another game, then fucked off as soon as the lynch was over. I was going to call-out GB for saying Damdred was a hypocrit but he seems to have realized that was quite an exxageration. Haven't really had a chance to relook at EoD yet, and there is a chance I wont be able to till after daypost. I bet there was at least one scum on FF, at most there was two, but more than likely scum were all spread out in the voting. | ||
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United States6052 Posts
Thoughts having just skimmed to catchup: I'm sure Damdred was shot due to him being like the only person to try and organize town EoD, and for almost getting SL lynched. I wouldn't link him being shot to his reads being particularly great (not saying they were bad, just disagreeing that his death means anything about his scumreads). Besides I really feel like HtS is town, the way she jumped on the VCA and associative reads (which look fairly solid at a glace, but I want to look at on my own) looks exactly like an excited town taking off with the new info from the flips. Also the way votes went down makes her pretty likely to be town. It would be a pretty weird time for scum!HtS and SL to double buss. I'm liking Fidei a lot less, he's throwing out really weak associative stuff. On April 23 2016 07:07 Fidei86 wrote: TT is scum, I think. This post is beyond Derp. I'm reading on a train with spotty reception so may not be able to post. If I die I strongly suggest you lynch TT. But if Dani doesn't die by day 3, it's probably her. What about that post makes me mafia Fidei? Re: HtS's proposed scumteam. I could tinfoil Koshi being scum this game (his reaction to my first real post and subsiquent adopting my posts formatting did give me a weak buddying vibe), but I doubt it. Fidei and Gum are much more sus than Koshi to me atm who would have to have suddenly gotten extremely good at mimiking his town play as scum if he is scum here. Gum I think looks worse not only for hammering FF, but also kus I am kinda tinfoiling his "slip of the fingers" vote on SL to be distancing or just wanting to have a vote on SL on the books in case he ever flipped. I also still find it pretty odd how he came into the game near EoD with a semi-case and seemingly strong scumread on me then just rode Damdred's heels all EoD. I'll also note that this scumread has prettymuch evaporated since then even though he was saying the only reason he didn't push it harder EoD was due to being on mobile. None of his posts since then seem to have any interest in pushing me or reevaluating me based on EoD. I'm putting my vote on Tumble again, nothing has changed my opinion on him and I thought his posts after the flip were shit (look at Damdred's and HtS's posts if you want good reasons as to why they were bad). The association thing HtS points out looks kinda weak in that post whe was pointing out, but when you also note that Tumble avoided the SL wagon when it was forming and instead went for FF (voted a null read over a scum read) it looks pretty solid. + Show Spoiler + Sorry HtS if that was your point and I just missed it while skimming I have a pretty strong feeling that the last scummers are in Tumble/Gum/Fidei right now. Oh and I almost forgot, but I think SL flipping red makes GB town. GB was pretty focused on SL and SL's reaction to his push didn't look like mafia talking to mafia. I could prob tinfoil SL just telling his team to buss him right off the bat this game since he was pretty clearly not making much effort, but I prob wouldn't worry about that unless more than one of my scumreads flip green. | ||
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##Unvote TumbleDood Although I'm mildly upset that his means I should relook at things. .... Well I should but I'm just gunna vote gum. This kinda reeks of TMI and mafia sided thinking. On April 23 2016 11:43 gumshoe wrote: Welp the Damdred shot was pretty peculiar, he want giving off any blue vibes and he was also super active/trd. Which meant he was likely to be healed. So scum must have ether a) been actively jeopardized by him enough they risked the shot or b) saw that he was so off the trail they figured killing him would further their cause and remove a solid townie at the same time. This of course pertains to the alignment of one tumble weed, damdreds prime case and the reason I assume for the risky shot onto him. Going by the effective case work so far deaddam and liveskies and the type of scum team the death of sl seems to imply we're dealing with, I think the obvious reasoning of starlord being shot to buy some space for a reeling scum team seems fair. So yeah I see no reason to get fancy, I'll take a tumble today. ##vote tumble Mafia sided thinking here in Bold. Evaluating Blueness of Damdred and focused on potential of KP blocking. I also don't like the type of scum team the death of SL seems to imply... as part of the reason why he wanted to lynch tumble.Plus I already pointed out how Gum was lapdogging towards Damdred EoD so him doing it again here doesn't impress. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
I really don't have a read on DYH so I glanced at his filter. I noticed he never really gave a read on SL till his list post at night and even then he basically just said he didn't want to make a read yet. Could very well be lurking mafia but I'd place him closer to a null read based on a few of his posts having decent thinking. @HtS what made you change your mind on LS? Idk about Shape, need to give a proper look at his filter (actually I'm not sure if I've even bothered to open his yet). On the one hand my gut read is leaning town but the quality of his posts feels a little lacking and are reminiscent of his play later on as scum in Storm. HtS's point about his vote on SL is decent, but I don't think it's as strong as she is making it out to be. Think thats all for now. | ||
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On April 24 2016 07:44 Koshi wrote: godfuckingdamnit Again I pressed post too fast. The bolded I find somewhat townie: I'm really not understanding what you find townie about this Koshi. Imo Gum has basically claimed scum with his play today, and here he is basically admitting he has no scumreads. Really the only thought he seems to have coming into today is this NK wifom about why damdred is killed, and notice there was no real follow through with this. | ||
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On April 25 2016 02:49 LightningStrike wrote: I honestly getting weird feels about lynching gunshoe and the fact he's fine with being lynched is very odd for a scum to do unless their name is kurumi who claimed scum to get rid of sicklucker and Superbia in Storm. But on the other hand sicklucker pile was quick and he tried to get the lynch off him which was successful on his part. Very weird feels for me about this lynch indeed. This is also in response to Tumbles last post as well. Its kinda odd, but tbh I think its even stranger behavior for town. I see he just posted a WoT with some reads ( I only have a ten min break so will only be able to read part of it before it's over) but he waited to ~2 hrs before the deadline to put in effort. I just don't buy town feeling like they are in as bad a spot as gumshoe is saying he is in. Like there was a game I played where I was the gunsmith, Onegu (as scum) faked a redcheck on me and I derped and said something about being a miller then claimed my role. Everyone thought. I was so full of shit Damdred even fake CC'd my claim as VT and made it so that everytime I posted everyone was just like " why are you even trying scum?" Even in that situation I kept posting and sharing my thoughts and reads because I knew that eventually I would flip town and those might be useful. I don't see that from gum here, just a lot of " woe is me" type posts and then w/e he has in that WoT. I'm only going to be around breifly before EoD to reevaluate and look at what happens in the next few hours, but I feel like we kinda have to lynch gum at this point because he never took the oppitunity to do anything till now and we really shouldn't let another EoD like D1 happen, especially in the case that gum is scum and is hoping to play on sympathy and the odd feeling of a slow day. | ||
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United States6052 Posts
Wont be home for a bit and not sure if I'll get fully caught up in time. Just managed the finish gums WoT and subsequent posts on w/e page that happened on. I'll admit I am getting more of a townie feel from these posts, especially this one and the one where he defends Koshi. On April 25 2016 05:00 gumshoe wrote: I'll consent to lynching fedie or gb, otherwise it's better to just kill me (the scummiest townie) cause I don't see a red flip coming from anyone else. Just doesn't seem like it matches up with a scum agenda, which would be to survive, if he's defending the counterwagon and pushing people who aren't exactly highon peoples to-lynch lists. Not sure thats enough to convince me with such little time to think things through but it's a start. Fidei would prob be my pick to lynch if we aren't lynching gum. | ||
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On April 25 2016 07:14 Koshi wrote: sicklucker here pushed GB Did GB answer this? Is this talk between buddies? more about GB So is this between buddies or not? I don't know. Do you know? This stuff is why I was thinking GB was town from the SL flip. ...however the fact that his push dissapeared later in the day & that GB never actually voted SL is kinda suspect. It looks like DYH is the other wagon people are voting on... idk he's been underwhelming and he's avoiding the big topics of discussion but I'm not sure if that makes him scum. Blah, idk. Maybe I'll flip a coin. | ||
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The stuff between GB and SL seemed to not be mafia on mafia... I think/hope | ||
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I gotta run out the door kus dinner with the fam but this bodes very well boys. Apparently we are dealing with sleeper mafia. | ||
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I actually think DYH flipping red makes gum pretty likely to be town. DYH started off the game putting suspicion on gum and that is just super unlikely for mafia to do that. Plus I actually liked his play once he started playing again. I have a feeling that the last scum was on the DYH wagon, given scums position this game they basically NEED to buy as much towncred as possible to have any hopes of winning this and lynching your other lurker teammate is a good way to do it. I can see GB being scum, and gum's "case" on him isn't bad, but I'm having a hard time believing it's that easy. I'm vaguely reminded of haunted mansion where so many things pointed towards GB being scum... But it simply wasn't so. Call me tunneled, lazy, or scum, but my gut is still telling me Fidei is scum. His vote fell on DYH early but I noticed a lot of posts where he was talking about needing to consolidate onto koshi/GB (kinda like he was hoping one of the other wagons would win out). His reaction to HtS calling him possible scum also felt VERY defensive, like he needed to show how that flip makes him town. I could possibly tinfoil Shape and LS as mafia here but it seems pretty unlikely. I may do some actual work looking into stuff tonight, but don't get your hopes up. I'm sure mafia have no interest in NKing me and my day tomorrow is pretty busy again. | ||
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On April 21 2016 22:48 Fidei86 wrote: [11/40] Buddy, I'm starting to think that the universe is playing a cruel joke on me. Every game we play together we're both town (pretty much). Every game I am utterly convinced that you are scum, and you never are. But this is so bad. I have argued in previous games that people were pushing you questionably because you are an easy lynch. But in this game you've actually made points and arguments and generally playing a lot better than you have before. Nobody else (other than me) has accused you of being an easy lynch. And HTS' read on FF? Yeah, Koshi's point was fine. HTS elaborated a lot on a null read. But lots of people don't have reads on lots of people. Fuck, I barely have reads on anyone (and I'm town), but you haven't called me out on it. Are you saying there's an association between FF and HTS? The thing is, I don't think you're dumb enough as mafia to get into a shitfight with HTS this early on. You *know* she's probably a top 5 player on the site, and she always catches you. Unless you're being smart and trying to throw her radar off by going on the offensive. Ugh. Can people start saying who they plan to vote for? Right now I could lynch SL (inactivity), gumshoe or GB. I don't have the town feels about anyone in particular, but I can't see myself voting for either Koshi or HTS, if only because they've been active and coherent, and voting particularly active people off when my reads are as weak as they are seems dumb. Noting this post due to it being the first time Fidei mentions SL in his filter. This was well before any wagon on SL started so he should get some town points from it, but here is why I feel it's a bit odd. On April 21 2016 06:24 Fidei86 wrote: The reason why I really really don't like this post is that it seems to be something of a "here is who isn't saying much" list, except that it doesn't include SL, who has said one thing so far? (Maybe two?) Unless there are good reasons for all these names that aren't to do with inactivity, and which will be explained later I guess. [6/40] Here Fidei is both calling me out for having a list that is more or less inactive/underwhelming people, and he seems to have the opinion here that lynching for inactivity isn't a good reason. I can understand why he called me out for leaving SL off that list, but it's weird to me that he goes from calling my list bad for only being focused on inactive people to scumreading SL for being inactive. The tinfoil-loving side of me thinks Fidei pointed out me leaving SL off my list and puttin him in his own scum list (for the same reason he didn't like my list) shows TMI about SL's alignment. Not sure this is terribly strong though. Fidei dropped his vote on Gum and was afk EoD1 so there isn't much info to gain on him from those shennanies. On April 22 2016 09:34 Fidei86 wrote: Drunk James says its HTS / TT / Damdred. But this is definitely one of the weirdest games I've ever been in. If I'm vigi tonight I shoot LS though. Dude doesn't string a sentence together for four games in a row and is town. He posts a WOT tonight and nobody bats an eye. Having reread some of his earlier posts about me I can understand why Fidei has a scumread on me, the HtS read feels like it's pretty unfounded though and is more a "fear" read (she COULD be scum...). A nit-picky point here is also why Fidei is suggesting a Vig shot on LS here. I don't recall him having a strong opinion on LS before and it's odd he doesn't want vig to shoot any of his scumreads (supposidly SL would still be a scumread on Fidei's here and the same logic he is applying to LS here should also apply to SL). Granted this is a "drunk" post but I really have no clue why Fidei is suggesting Damdred is scum here, especially when he had just agreed with Damdred over this post. Stuff like this is why I started scum reading Fidei yesturday. On April 23 2016 07:07 Fidei86 wrote: TT is scum, I think. This post is beyond Derp. I'm reading on a train with spotty reception so may not be able to post. If I die I strongly suggest you lynch TT. But if Dani doesn't die by day 3, it's probably her. No explanation as to why this post makes him think I'm scum (this was even still before SL flipped btw) and this "if Dani isn't dead tomorrow we lynch her" is just super weak and unfounded. Honestly I just feel like the scumreads Fidei has on me and to a bigger extent HtS are extremely lazy and haphazard. On April 23 2016 08:05 Fidei86 wrote: SL's filter goes very bizarrely with HTS being scum. Stuff like that, he provides no evidence why he thinks this, just throws it out there. On April 23 2016 23:33 Fidei86 wrote: Having read back through the filters, I've sort of talked myself back round on HTS and TT. There is a lot lot of suspicious stuff in their filters, but nobody else seems to see the link / soft defending I see, and I may just be paranoid. Both have had some pretty good analysis since the D2 flip. And as I said before, SL went after HTS pretty hard in circumstances where it was more than possible she might actually become a target. As I said before, if Dani makes it to D4ish, I'm going to get the mega tin foil out. But for now, I'm okay with her as town. TW is town obviously. I'm pretty sold on LS as town, actually. The issue I have now is that all of Shape, GB and DYH have been particularly underwhelming. I'd put shape at the higher end of that, but DYH and GB have been borderline useless. I think looking carefully at their filters, which I'll do now, is likely to yield dividends in terms of solving this game. (Yes, I accept I just flipped on my two top scum reads, was wrong on Damdred and SL and have also been very questionable this game. But I know I'm town, so there). Just kinda funny he says "talked myself back round to HtS and TT" when he has been pushing us as scum pretty much all game with no signs of thinking otherwise... Especially when he talks about how SL went after her in circumstances that don't make much sense for scum to bus in the same paragraph. This post is also, I think, the first time Fidei brings up DYH, this was pretty early in the day. The issue I have now is that all of Shape, GB and DYH have been particularly underwhelming. I'd put shape at the higher end of that, but DYH and GB have been borderline useless. I think looking carefully at their filters, which I'll do now, is likely to yield dividends in terms of solving this game. His next post about DYH? On April 24 2016 00:33 Fidei86 wrote: @DYH what's going on in your personal life bro? Busy at work? New girlfriend with legs that go all the way down? His next post on GB? On April 24 2016 00:41 Fidei86 wrote: I want to believe GB is town, but he has been so low energy, and his list post was so nit-picky, I cannot rule him out. The main thing I want from GB is to get over losing Damdred, his only strong read, and tell the rest of us what he's thinking. Really doesn't look like he tried to make a read on DYH at all. Lets look at how Fidei's read on DYH evolves over the rest of D2. + Show Spoiler [A bunch of posts] + On April 24 2016 00:44 Fidei86 wrote: Just had a thought: all the people TRing me for garbage meta reasons (DYH, Dani, TT) are probably all town. Because I think my play in this game has been pretty damn awful so far, and any of them could have easily pushed me as a mislynch. On April 25 2016 05:51 Fidei86 wrote: Do we think Shape's voting exhonerates him? If he were scum, if he'd managed to be on a wagon on scum that then got overtaken by a town wagon, I don't see why you'd then flip onto a town wagon at the last moment. That's just way too much weird play to make sense from a scum perspective. Unfortunately, that also means that DYH's play makes a lot more sense. So I'm at Town: LS, Shape, TW Confused about their voting right now: Koshi, gumshoe No particular reason to lynch: DYH Not scum as not pushing me???: HTS, TT ??? GB On April 25 2016 06:35 Fidei86 wrote: Why do you think it's DYH? He can't be accused of flooding the thread, but the thing I was really concerned about (his flip on Shape) actually makes a bunch of sense considering Shape's voting. On April 25 2016 06:57 Fidei86 wrote: Dani, how can Shape be mafia. What mafia gets onto a bussing wagon, then stays on it until AFTER another wagon has formed and is hitting town, to get onto the ML. That just makes no sense to me. DYH though, I could dig. I'm going to re-read his filter again. Note: This time there was some follow-through from Fidei looking at DYH On April 25 2016 07:03 Fidei86 wrote: This might be a nitpick thing, but I'm not sure why DYH wanted LS' view on GB, after he hard town read GB like an hour before. On April 25 2016 07:10 Fidei86 wrote: Fuck it. I'm voting DYH. I'm not sold on the gumshoe / Koshi lynches, and I'm not sure I want to lynch GB either. ##Vote: DYH Honestly that read is a confused mess. Fidei goes from thinking DYH could be town, to not wanting to lynch, to semi defending DYH, to "I could lynch" again, and finally this fuck it vote onto DYH. The thing that bugs me here is that his read isn't changing based on stuff he is seeing from DYH, and while he twice says he's going to filter dive DYH he never really does that (sure he brought out one quote the 2nd time but he's hardly trying to conclude anything there). Now that I'm at the point where Fidei puts his vote on DYH, lets look at how he played the rest of EoD. These are short and I want people to see what I'm talking about here so I'm not spoilering. On April 25 2016 07:11 Fidei86 wrote: I'll consolidate onto GB over gumshoe/Koshi though. On April 25 2016 07:13 Fidei86 wrote: Shape please vote ASAP so we can narrow this shit down. On April 25 2016 07:16 Fidei86 wrote: SHAAAAPPPEEE BROOOO you gotta vote in the next five minutes or so so we can have a sensible discussion about consolidating. On April 25 2016 07:22 Fidei86 wrote: Can people please get their shit together and vote now. If nobody else is switching I need to decide which of GB / gum / Koshi to lynch. On April 25 2016 07:24 Fidei86 wrote: If it was GB I actually think he'd fakeclaim here. The last time he was mafia in a game I was in he did. The last couple of times he's been town, he hasn't claimed. Okay, so that's a dumb reason to TR someone, but it just makes me even keener to lynch outside of those three. On April 25 2016 07:28 Fidei86 wrote: This town is allergic to consolidating  So after putting his vote on DYH, these are the rest of Fidei's posts EoD. Notice what I was saying? He's talking a lot about consolidating but he keeps talking about people OTHER than DYH who he is voting. Also note the last post there... here was the vote count at that time (or slightly before actually). On April 25 2016 07:24 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Day 2: DoYouHas (4) - LightningStrike, Fidei86, Koshi, Shapelog GlowingBear (2) - gumshoe (2) - Tictock, Koshi (2) - Shapelog (0) - Tumblewood (0) - At the current vote, DoYouHas is slated to be lynched. until deadline. Why is he upset that people aren't consolidating when people have been steadily joining the DYH wagon? That last bit is why I found this a little overblown. On April 25 2016 08:02 Fidei86 wrote: Dani. Are you actually serious right now. How on earth can it be me. I was the one saying "hey, we could def lynch DYH here" and then I voted him second, when GB had three votes. I could have easily gone on GB after clearing gum and Koshi. And also, I am basically universally townread (or at least, nobody seems to have me on their scum list apart from TT). In what universe do I as mafia enter the thread, call the two leading wagons (gum / Koshi) bad, then REFUSE to get onto the GB wagon WHEN IT WAS LEADING BY MILES and bus the GF. ARE YOU ACTUALLY F'ING SERIOUS WITH ME RIGHT NOW. The only reason you're IN ANY WAY thinking it could be be is to keep the lynch pool wider than it might be. Which I guess is a good reason not to move you off the top of my lynch list  Looking at the posts at EoD I think it's fairly clear that Fidei was not actually ruling out any of GB/Koshi/Gum and in some ways was pushing them (very weakly) while his vote was on DYH. Other than that there is nothing actually wrong with what Fidei is saying here, and tbh if I am wrong on Fidei it's because of this post. On April 25 2016 07:24 Fidei86 wrote: If it was GB I actually think he'd fakeclaim here. The last time he was mafia in a game I was in he did. The last couple of times he's been town, he hasn't claimed. Okay, so that's a dumb reason to TR someone, but it just makes me even keener to lynch outside of those three. This is the only post from Fidei which is (though indirectly) actually suggesting that people should move to DYH by giving a reason to TR GB who was looking like the only other viable wagon. I will note though that this came at ~6 min before the lynch happened and it was looking like DYH was the lynch. If I get time I'll look over SL and DYH's filters, but given their low activity I'm not sure I will find much to either tie or distance Fidei from this scumteam. The TLDR here is don't give Fidei a pass because he voted 2nd on DYH, he really wasn't pushing that lynch and multiple times avoided giving a read on DYH. Even when he DID put his vote down for DYH it doesn't really show much of a read on him. On April 25 2016 07:10 Fidei86 wrote: Fuck it. I'm voting DYH. I'm not sold on the gumshoe / Koshi lynches, and I'm not sure I want to lynch GB either. ##Vote: DYH | ||
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United States6052 Posts
On April 25 2016 07:30 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Final Votecount - Day 2: DoYouHas (5) - LightningStrike, Fidei86, Koshi, Shapelog, TicTock GlowingBear (2) - gumshoe (1) - Koshi (2) - Shapelog (0) - Tumblewood (0) - DoYouHas is slated to be lynched. It's interesting that DYH and GB were voting together here. If they are both scum this is a pretty weak attempt to stay alive by voting together on a wagon that is probably never going to happen. Idk it's super weak, especially since the lynch was between GB and DYH, but I wouldn't expect scum to be voting together like this. I'd expect a scum!GB to make the swap to DYH to at least pickup whatever towncred he could, but honestly that's pretty WIFOM. Still, this plus the stuff between GB and SL is enough to make me prefer a Fidei lynch tomorrow over GB. | ||
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4. I get onto DYH despite him being the GODFATHER, which would leave me at the mercy of a possible redcheck end game. Unless you think Artanis included a godfather but no cop .... Which could happen. He is Dutch after all. I don't know why everyone always assumes this despite half or more games having a GF but no cop. Anyways, what are your actual reasons for scumreading HtS Fidei? Like you've been saying she could be scum all game but have done jack all to try and show why you think she is, or in this case why you want to lynch her first of your PoE scum pool. | ||
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Dani is a really good Mafia player. In games I've played with her has town, she has crushed it. In this game, she hasn't been right about anything. At EOD2 she kept saying she was considering DYH, but at the same time she ended up on GB - someone she didn't really ever develop a read on. Also for someone who has posted a lot of VCA, and who was here at EOD, it's bizarre she had me as a higher likelihood of Mafia over TT. There might be reasons why she's playing not so well this game. But my view is that the most likely reason is that she's Mafia. Oh I missed this kus you called her by name. This is pretty meh tbh, and I'm not sure why you have her higher than me on your list when you seem to have more points on me. Also she corrected herself that she had meant me over you in that post, given that I voted last on DYH and when it didn't matter. | ||
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I still think Fidei is probably mafia but it seems Koshi is the only one who sees what I see. Still not impressed with how he is pushing to lynch HtS with nothing more than a fear read though. I thought Koshi was more convincing in that one post about HtS than Fidei has been all game. My PoE is pretty much Fidei and GB and given we have 2? Mislynches before LyLo I can't really be too concerned with the order thatwe lynch them in. Besides with limited internet its gunna be hard to sway people regarding my read on Fidei past what I've already posted and. Koshi added. | ||
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On April 27 2016 02:09 GlowingBear wrote: Why do you read HTS as town? Why am I Mafia? HtS has been putting in lots of analysis and has been staying pretty objective in her reads. I don't see her pushing an agenda or looking for easy lynches. Koshi said he hated her null read of FF early on but I felt like it showed her not rushing to conlusions and actually wanting to make an effort to read people carefully and correctly. Just in general I feel her flow of thoughts makes sense and the flow of her reads and posts resonates with me. I should go back over her filter to look at how she played around both EoD, but unless my issue at home gets fixed I'm not able to really filter dive easily. Honestly I kinda do think you are town GB, but it's a kinda weak gut read. Your vote earlier on Gum felt a little off though, what happened to your read on Koshi? I've been pondering the NK on LS kus that was not who I expected to be killed. However my best guess is that he was killed either because he was well off everyones radar or possibly the last scum thought they had a blue read on him. Honestly I'm tempted to be a mule and just vote Fidei even if there is little chance of him getting lynched. I should prob make a better effort than that though... Then again we have tons of time and possibly even another blue role to help find the last scum so I'm not terribly modivated to reread and such. | ||
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On April 27 2016 02:19 Fidei86 wrote: TT do you see any way that it is HTS or gumshoe? I literally cannot understand why you and HTS continue to hard TR each other despite both of you being implicated by the EOD2 VCA. Maybe Artanis included Masons and didn't put it in the opening post?? I'm not sure how we are implicated by VCA... Sure it doesn't support either of us being town but that doesn't make us mafia. I also still think the last mafia was likely on the DYH wagon as I said because mafia is in a rough spot this game and prob felt the need to make a play to gain towncred. | ||
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Voting Gum because he is incessently using timestamps to prove shit, and used the term "brah" | ||
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Means I wont have to head into work early just to check in and post. However you all should be aware that I am not able to be around for EoD today. I have to leave for me 2nd job almost 2 hours before. So my last post wasn't legit, I was half just being snarky and half fishing for reactions. I actually thought the whole argument between Gum and GB looks really Town on Town to me and the way HtS came into it did not look at all like Mafia trying to fence sit it looked like she was really trying to read what was going on when mafia would be just fine with town fighting each other like that. Thus I'm im left with my scum read on Fidei, who I'll be voting unless there was anything interesting that came up from my kinda silly reaction test. Wow ok basically nothing has happened since I made that post, and I think Gum was the only person who reacted to it. On April 27 2016 06:29 gumshoe wrote: I'm sorry, I got a bit zealous, I do that when I feel scum is right I front of me( in the other game I was sure 2 people were scum together,and tried to make things try to fit as such, this has less to do with my alignment and more with my flaws ) Gb is scum I'm sure of that, but yeah I got a bit carried away and fucked up / : on top of thinking gb is scum, I want him to be scum and that is a poor mindset I admit and one I'll try to avoid going forward. I'll look at hts tic and fedie a filters again in case there's something world consuming in there, but I'm pretty confident about gb, but I'll admit could just be mah confirmation bias flaring. Also no one should ever be lynched for using the word brah, it's a lovely word. My initial thought is why are you so apologetic in this post Gum? Seems kinda odd to apologize for pushing who you think is scum unless they just flipped town. Though I saw this post... On April 27 2016 04:46 gumshoe wrote: ah fuck, yeah theres a big jump T_T my bad only the gloat post counts. sorry for the mistake gb ) : you still scum So maybe it was more related to that. Yea I see nothing from Fidei today that changes my mind. Koshi did more to push HtS today than Fidei has (even though he keeps saying HtS is his choice of lynch), and his reasoning felt a lot more believable... well "believable" maybe isn't the right word, Organic? Here you go, for comparison. + Show Spoiler [Fidei's] + Dani is a really good Mafia player. In games I've played with her has town, she has crushed it. In this game, she hasn't been right about anything. At EOD2 she kept saying she was considering DYH, but at the same time she ended up on GB - someone she didn't really ever develop a read on. Also for someone who has posted a lot of VCA, and who was here at EOD, it's bizarre she had me as a higher likelihood of Mafia over TT. There might be reasons why she's playing not so well this game. But my view is that the most likely reason is that she's Mafia. + Show Spoiler [Koshi's] + On April 26 2016 18:01 Koshi wrote: Reasons why I am now voting HTS: 1) To raise awareness that also HTS could be mafia. 2) Because she wrote 5 lines on why FF was null early in the game that made me puke. 3) Because she wrote this to defend DYH, which made 0 sense because that wasn't even anything DYH did: 4) Because I can All I really see from Fidei is him saying how town he is for voting DYH and not hopping on any other wagons. Which as both Koshi and I have been pointing out looks kinda weird when you look at his filter kus he twice states he is going to filter DYH and really comes up with nothing from them. He didn't really push any of his other scumreads (I don't even recall what happened to his read on Gum, Fidei solo voted Gum D1). Like I could legit see DYH in mafia QT going "Sorry dude I can't really be bothered and LS is actually pushing me enough I could be lynched, you should bus me early for the cred and hopefully stay off the radar for a few days at least" might even explain why LS was the NK... At the very least everyone should give his filter a once over while putting aside the fact that he voted 2nd on DYH (at least just for a moment) and see for yourselves if Koshi and I are just talking out our asses or not. ##Vote F-word-dude | ||
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I mean I get things come up and whatnot he has been around this phase but it's getting closer and closer to deadline with no real effort to push his scumreads or refine his PoE list. | ||
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On April 28 2016 00:45 Fidei86 wrote: Well I didn't get up early because I'm lazy. And I've been at work all day. But I'm kicking off early to get home and start looking seriously through filters. Also HTS you were here during the votes. This is ludicrous. You know me. You think as the last scum I bussed my last buddy to go solo? And that I did it when it was absolutely not necessary? Or that my call for 'consolidating' was actually a call to move off DYH? Yeah, if I'm alive at the end you absolutely have to look again at everyone. But voting me now over people who didn't vote scum last round on a last minute shenanigan? Come on. Why are you trying to convince her you are town, when she is your prime scumread? | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On April 28 2016 02:18 Tumblewood wrote: I don't like fidei's response to being pushed this is a shitty reason and very easy to refute, but he's responding from a ground of "nah you guys are so silly I'm confirmed town" then again, I'd expect him to prioritize his survival a lot more if he were last scum hmmm not seeing anyone more convincing though Aren't those the same thing? Trying to argue that he is confirmed town IS playing for survival... In regards to your post before this one, what exactly is my comfort zone? And yea Shape is kinda just floating this game, not sure that is AI if he's been having RL issues. Will revist him if Fidei flips green I suppose kus while it's unlikely he's mafia having been pushed/voted by both SL and DYH I suppose it's possible. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On April 28 2016 02:57 Fidei86 wrote: -_- You know, for all the people voting me, I don't see anyone really considering anyone else (apart from gumshoe and GB against each other). When I flip town you're all going to have to rethink things. As far as I can see you're all just meandering towards my lynch. You're wasting time and this is exactly what mafia wants. This is not true. HtS was on GB till recently. Koshi, while seemingly taken with my read/case on you was definitly looking into HtS at one point. I even held off my vote because I was considering GB even though my gut read on him has been town. Well ok having my internet out was part of this as well. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On April 28 2016 03:35 Fidei86 wrote: Alright. I'm going to switch off reading Dani's filter. I think her actions at EOD1 are sufficient to keep her safe for today, and I have a bunch more filters to get through before EOD. My working to get to this point is as follows: DAY 1 HTS's top scum read is LS all day. She consistently pushes him and consistently reads him as scum. She does not drop this read through EOD. At 22:44 BST she makes the following post: Note that she pings SL and says she is reconsidering gumshoe. At 23:02 BST she switches voting to SL. At that stage, she takes sicklucker to FOUR votes, with the next nearest wagon being FF on TWO. However, with town super spread out, it might well have appeared to HTS that SL was done for, and she wanted the town credit. Call it a bus of opportunity. At 23:19 BST she makes the following post, which is as far as I can see basically the only 'read' she makes of FF: Finally at 23:23 BST she makes the following post, switching to FF: From a read flow perspective, it makes no sense for her to jump off her second top scum read (SL). HOWEVER, at this stage Damdred had voted SL at 23:09 BST, taking FF to THREE votes (and SL to three as well), and then gumshoe voted FF (with a detour at SL) at 23:16 BST taking SL to four and FF to three. HTS thus moved OFF a scum wagon that was behind and ON TO a town wagon that was already ahead. It is possible that she was looking to fortify SL's safety, I grant you. I also have a number of suspicions about Dani's play, mostly revolving around her having very few sustained pushes, asking lots of questions and not really doing anything with the information, voting FF basically out of the blue on EOD1 and GB again with not much explaining on EOD2. But I think I probably have a lot of fear / confirmation bias in my read of her. And I'd rather spend my time going through other filters than trying to reason out in my head why scum Dani votes EOD as she did. I don't understand why any of this leads you to a townread or "keeps her safe". You keep saying the EoD stuff here could be a bus then go "eh I have a fear read" Sounds more like you are giving up kus you can't find a convincing argument... | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On April 28 2016 04:05 Fidei86 wrote: Ticktock, if you are here, I really think you have to explain this post and your vote D1. At this point, we were 24 minutes before lynch. At that stage, voting was highly contested between FF and SL. Three minutes later, Damdred switched his vote taking it to three on SL and three on FF. SL hammered at 23:16. You were in the thread. You saw a highly contested lynch, and nobody else was going to move to TW. Yet you didn't move. Felt like it was stupid for SL to go "why are you lynching me?" rather than doing something, so I was telling him he should probably do something. Not that I expect you to believe me, but I was thinking about swapping to SL but when everyone started to shift to FF (who I didn't want to lynch) I decided to just stay put on Tumble. I think this was the post I made when that was my thinking. On April 22 2016 07:14 Tictock wrote: Is it bad that I'm tempted to just leave my vote on Tumble in case he's scum and I'm on track to having a perfect voting record this game? + Show Spoiler + That is pretty bad huh? + Show Spoiler + Honestly I'm just not sure who I'd preffer to lynch... + Show Spoiler + SL's sudden return could him just trying to shake off the lynch if he's scum here though... but for some reason I'm inclined to believe him Which you are free to WIFOM as me having TMI calling out exactly what SL was doing, and to further that WIFOM I give you this post I made N1 On April 22 2016 23:54 Tictock wrote: Fairly dissapointed there was no follow through on this. Means SL basically just showed up as a wagon formed up on him, complained he didn't have time kus of another game, then fucked off as soon as the lynch was over. I was going to call-out GB for saying Damdred was a hypocrit but he seems to have realized that was quite an exxageration. Haven't really had a chance to relook at EoD yet, and there is a chance I wont be able to till after daypost. I bet there was at least one scum on FF, at most there was two, but more than likely scum were all spread out in the voting. On April 28 2016 04:09 Fidei86 wrote: With regards to my post above, I also refer to the above post, where TT basically town reads FF and scum reads SL. But he does not vote to save his town read over one of his scum reads. And he posted on at least two occasions (before and after) how bad the lynch was. This is very suspicious to me. I shall continue reading your filter. I think my response to your other post covers this one too. Though saying I had a real town read on FF is overstating things, he was off my list of D1 lynches for sure though. Actually thanks for quoting this one, means I had decent reads D1 with the 2 flipped scum in my lynch pool. + Show Spoiler + For more WIFOM I am known to bus as scum. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On April 28 2016 05:30 Fidei86 wrote: Fuck it. I am the Jailkeeper. I saved Damdred N1 (I got roleblocked) and Tumble N2. I saved Damdred right at the end of N1 - I was on HTS before that, because I figured she's strong town and a natural N1), but at the end I thought Damdred was a) more towny, b) more universally read as townie and therefore c) most likely to be the shot. I was fucking raging after Damdred flipped. I sent Artanis like three PMs yelling. I did not want to claim because we desperately need a save to get another mislynch and avoid 3v1 LYLO. The reason I've played like this is in large part because I thought that my killing DYH was SO TOWNIE that I might be the shot N3. And I really wanted to survive long enough to save TW. Obviously me drawing attention to myself worked too well. I am claiming now to give town enough time to find a new lynch. I think it should be TT. Can you please all now start thinking about the game rather than just waiving through this fucking mislynch on me. Humm, I'm not sure what to make of the bolded here. This would only apply to your play N2. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On April 28 2016 05:36 Fidei86 wrote: There is no need to do that now when we still have AT LEAST two more nights and a mafia roleblocker. I am blue, but if I WASN'T then the CCs should come the day before LYLO, so town can lynch the competing claims. No there is no chance of there being another blue if you are in fact the JK, so if there is another blue they 100% should claim now. No way do we have Vig + JK + ??? for town in a 13p setup. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On April 28 2016 05:45 Fidei86 wrote: Mafia kills are factional. So I cannot block them. I'm basically a nerfed medic (targets are RBed as well). There could absolutely be another blue. Nope. Idk I'm not terribly convinced by this claim, and it bugs me that Fidei suggests that another blue should wait to claim in LyLo when that's like the worst time to have a claim war. Now I've got 10 min left to think about things... | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On April 28 2016 05:54 Half the Sky wrote: 28/40 Tictock, Fidei is rubbish at setup speculation, that I know from his gameplay in NSM18, so him not factoring in claim wars/claim analysis well here is not alignment indicative. He's not the lynch regardless. Did you have thoughts on GB? I thought he looked pretty towny in that argument vs Gum. Idk I'm kinda tempted to Yolo vote Shape, main reason why he seems to be town in my mind is because both of the other scum voted for him but that's pretty weak. Then again GB giving up on his gum read and posting this doesn't inspire confidence in my TR on him On April 28 2016 04:21 GlowingBear wrote: 29 I must say, although as weird as it sounds, that I'm starting to believe TT is the last Mafia. Does anyone understand why? I assume the why is because I've been pushing Fidei so hard who I guess has to be blue (I think everyone posted since his claim?) | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On the other hand I really can't say with and confidence that I believe Shape to be town. ... So I guess I'll vote GB. If you all lynch me we should still have plenty of time to work this out so no worries. All for me, I'm out till well after deadline. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
I'm mildly satisfied that my gut read on him was right though... If it turns out town only had a Vig this game and Fidie is getting away with a fakeclaim I'm gunna be upset, but I'll worry about that postgame. For now I guess I'll take things back to square one kus my PoE has apparently been shit. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On April 29 2016 07:29 Hapahauli wrote: Fidei86 (Jailkeeper) has died. Good I can put that tinfoil to rest. I haven't really read HtS's case on me yet, but she made good choices picking out my strongest scum games. Pretty sure I post just to post as either alignment though... I mean if that's what you wanna call it when I make posts like this one. (if this weren't a post restricted game I might well just stop and post now, but...) Without reading filters Shape seems like the obv choice from my PoV, but I should do you all justice and actually read HtS's filter (Hell just the fact that she's been making nonstop WoT type posts might be something to note, kus god does it make me not wanna read her filter) and recheck Gum. I could tinfoil Koshi, but honestly he might deserve the win if he is mafia here. The buddying has been spot on if mafia. All for now, I'll do things when I feel like it. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
I've been way too wrong to be mafia this game, especially when I have almost always bussed teammates who played like DYH and SL did this game. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/lPINk7Q.jpg) | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
What was the image of the Card you "drew" for me? In regards to HtS's case on me it's interesting that she is useing so much meta in that case... but without checking my town games as well. Especially when there are plenty of points this game that leave me looking fairly questionable (TRing SL D1, being one of the last to move to DYH when it didn't matter, ergo the stuff Fidei pointed out). I probably wont be bothered to look at filters till a fair bit later on today, but my initial feeling reading that case is that I'm being painted as scum not evaluated as more likely scum than town. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On April 29 2016 23:44 Shapelog wrote: ![[image loading]](http://www.tarotlore.com/tarot-images/rider-waite-smith/large/queen-of-pentacles.jpg) Reversed. Also, when was the last time town game (VT)? all you have ever role since I think I been a player has been blue o red....... Interesting enough. Honestly I'm not sure, if you can count it in PyP I was basically VT. Also before I forget, we can't vote to no lynch this game. If we mislynch today we will be in 1v3 LyLo. I've also got a pretty terrible, wifom, reason why you probably aren't the last mafia Shape... + Show Spoiler + Last game as the last mafia alive Shape took 2 blue's with him into 3 man lylo, and here we know that Fidei was RB'd D1 so the last mafia has to be the RB. If Shape was scum here I'm like 90% sure he would have RB'd Fidei and left him alive for the WIFOM, especially since Fidei was fairly set in his scumread on HtS. Anyways as for the Tarot, looking at it myself I find myself noticing that the queen's head is lowered, as though sleeping/tired or possible contemplating the weight of the symbol she bears. The goat's head (i think) on the armrest as well as the rabbit in the forground also catch my eye (side note: I was born in the year of the rabbit, but that's chinese so probably not related) I believe the goat is usually a sign of wealth and the rabbit a sign of fertility (breeding like rabbits you know). I usually don't look at Card reversals as it's a bit confusing, it's kinda the opposite meaning as right-side up but not really... something more like a conflict within the card's typical meaning. Here though I'm finding some references that fit at least in my personal life. + Show Spoiler [Reversed reading] + I bolded the parts that resonate with me. The Queen of Pentacles reversed sees you becoming very consumed in your work. You may be placing your career before your family or your relationships, and this is having a detrimental impact. Of course, this may be ok on a temporary basis but you need to assess its long-term impact. To rebalance your life, you may find a release by returning to a favourite nature spot (a forest, beach or mountain) and allowing yourself to take in this fresh, natural energy. Similarly, the Queen of Pentacles reversed can suggest that you are feeling worried about whether you can be financially independent, while also still maintaining your family connections. You may be concerned that if you invest in your career or financial well-being, you might not have enough energy to invest in your family. Sometimes, you just cannot do everything and you will need to make some choices. You may also find that you become a bit of a homebody and somewhat isolated from others. If so, you need to fight this urge and keep in touch with your friends and family as they will be a great help and support to you. At times, the reversed Queen of Pentacles may suggest that your tendency to ‘mother’ those you care about is actually becoming more like smothering. Your intentions are good in that you love to cook, clean, nurture and care for those around you but there may be a point at which you need to let others be accountable for their own upkeep. You cannot always be the one doing the laundry or cooking the dinner. Sometimes you need to step back and let others take on the load. Similarly, you may reach a point where you are investing so much time looking after others that you find you are neglecting yourself. Again, step back and let others take on some of the household responsibilities. Considering I've been working 2 jobs and quite often my days end up being close to 12 hours with only some time inbetween for Mafia or other games, this generally fits. I also tend to be something of a loner, and haven't been connecting well to my typical group of friends lately. So the reading seems fairly accurate. All said and done I don't find much here that relates to the game tbh, but idk what you were focusing on when you drew this card. In tarot intent and the question you are asking when reaching for a card is just as important as the card itself. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On April 29 2016 23:56 Half the Sky wrote: 2/40 Shape, with those last two mafia games from Tictock, aside from what you presented, I'm seeing a few more parallels. In the Devil Inside, both Trfel and Kushmasta both called Tictock out for misrepresenting their posts/reads. In this game, we have that read on Tumblewood. In Devil, Kushmasta called Tictock out (post 1207 that game) for ignoring reads that he updated. You have the exact same situation here with when he called Koshi's reads bullshit - it was after Koshi re-evaluated his read on LS and he didn't at all take into consideration why Koshi changed his read on LS. It's not like town doesn't read into posts and find things that aren't there. Also it was still a good point I had against Tumble, it's super weird to say "I think LS and me are probably town" I said Koshi's read on LS was BS, as in it was a terrible reason to townread LS. Given that it's Koshi we are talking about, him having weird/bad reads is actually more town indicative imo, which is what I concluded based on that. You brought this point up earlier and concluded the opposite irrc. + Show Spoiler [Just something I noticed] + While this isn't really conclusive I also can't help but notice you've been referencing posts almost exclusively by post number rather than providing the post itself. I point it out kus I used the same tactic in my last scum game (as shitty as it was) because I realized it makes it harder for people to fact check the points you make, it puts the onus on us to plug that number in and find the post you are referring to ourselves. Though I've seen you do this in Obs and such before too (course you can't really quote in those) so idk if that really means much. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
HtS the thing thats odd about you to me is that today you seem to be pushing me and not considering anyone else. You kinda brushed off my point about your meta read on me saying you looked at Haunted mansion, but tbh most of your points really come down to the same thing you were admonishing Fidei for, it's mostly just a fear read "He does a good job at looking townie as scum" and tbh I'm not sure any of your points are exclusive to my scum games. But putting that aside (and tbh it's kinda omgus anyways) I see stuff that still makes me think you can be town here, so I'd like to understand why you don't seem to be considering anyone else today. From my pov we have confirmed town Tumble, Koshi is is almost certainly town (or deserves the win if mafia), Shape who is probably town from DYH's D1 push and my shitty reasoning from earlier. Which leaves HtS and Gum. Gum did a lot of martyring D2 and then came back to start playing near EoD and picked it up enough to get everyone off him. D3 he tunneled GB hard, had that fight with him that looked pretty likely to be TvT and to some extent continued his martyering (he made several mentions of "you guys should lynch me or GB"). Today, nothing. HtS has honestly seemed town to me all game, putting in tons of effort and I've felt like a lot of her reads were being good and objective, not just pushing for a mislynch (that feeling has changed today though). I don't recall any solid pushes from her though, was pretty solidly on LS D1 but was all over the place EoD and her shift onto FF was shady given she had been semi-defending him earlier. I don't really recall off the top of my head where her head was at D3 but tbh I was kinda tunneled on Fidei so wasn't paying a ton of attn. Now today is fairly hard pushing me. HtS does make a good point that SL did push her a fair bit D1 when there was literally no reason for him to bus her. So I'm leaning towards Gum being the last mafia right now. I'm interested in checking his reactions to the DYH wagon D2, and I kinda want to reread the stuff between him and GB as that fight is kinda the main reason why I and I think a lot of people are TRing him right now. (this is more a mental note for me when I go to read his filter) | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On April 20 2016 21:56 Half the Sky wrote: 2/40 My concern with Tumbleweed lies in 101 and 110. The gist of it is that he is posting for the sake of posting and the questions are very open-ended with the argument that the information he's getting from it will not be helpful with determining alignments. 101 The comment on Shapelog is clearly answered if he'd read the thread - Shapelog by his own admission said his first five posts - of which one was quoted - was fluff. So he's asking a question already answered. It's possible town can neglect to read carefully but lets proceed to the next point. The comment on Lightning Strike was bad (and this is part of why I this LS could be mafia) - it is townreading LS for a poor reason. LS in the quoted statement says Tictock "blatantly" doesn't want to stir up discussion - Tictock may not want to post if he has nothing to contribute ESPECIALLY in a post-restricted game. So for him to take an NAI point and paint it as mafia indicative is poor, and by extension the townread is poor. 110 Same concern as in 101, non sequitur means illogical (more or less) so placing that expectation within the first few posts of the game is just meh. It seems forced. Moving on to LS, which is easily explained. Post 96 is a poor reason (or at least a weak reason) to townread Gumshoe, or at least the reason he gave. As stated before my bigger concern is with post 101 though, trying to make something that is alignment indicative which isn't necessarily so. Honestly HtS how can you make posts like this without fucking quoting the goddam quote. I have half a mind to vote you just for making me go through this... | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
To do HtS's filter justice... I'm going to do this hardcore. Opener #120 Kinda weird, lots of townleans, push on Tumble and LS, weird stuff about SL when talking to Koshi about FF. I think she mentions everyone in the game. + Show Spoiler + On April 20 2016 21:44 Half the Sky wrote: 1/40 Reading through so far, here are my thoughts. Damdred (88/89)/gumshoe (posts 93/95)- townleans, I agree with most of the points said on them thus far. DYH I'm reading post 85/87 I can see those coming from both alignments so I'm going to wait for further comments. Tictock is a townlean for the breakdown in post 112. Seeing a few arguments about people being underwhelming, it's a poor argument to have been made <10h into the game, but that's just me. SL, DYH, GB based on their openers are all people that I'd need to see more content from. SL in particular has both active and lazy town and scum metas. My scum leans so far are Tumbleweed and LightningStrike based on the focus on their posts. I'll go into detail in the next post. Although I get a towny sentiment from Koshi, I also don't understand Koshi's scumreasoning for Fecalfeast, - I skimmed the latter's filter and I see a lot of the lazy Fecalfeast meta, I didn't understand Koshi's words about "town should be grilling sicklucker" when depending on the player it's not necessarily always the case, it was obvious to me that sicklucker was facetious. Additionally, Fecalfeast "not making a difference" is not necessarily exclusively mafia indicative for him. For the games I've played with him, he has both lazy town and mafia metas, but even in his lazy town meta, he will try and do something at some point. We're a bit early in the cycle to pass judgement IMO. To sum it up, Fecalfeast could be mafia but not necessarily for that. #121 Follow up on LS and Tuble push. Really, why put the post # underlined, and so emphasized, but not fucking quote the dam post. + Show Spoiler + On April 20 2016 21:56 Half the Sky wrote: 2/40 My concern with Tumbleweed lies in 101 and 110. The gist of it is that he is posting for the sake of posting and the questions are very open-ended with the argument that the information he's getting from it will not be helpful with determining alignments. 101 The comment on Shapelog is clearly answered if he'd read the thread - Shapelog by his own admission said his first five posts - of which one was quoted - was fluff. So he's asking a question already answered. It's possible town can neglect to read carefully but lets proceed to the next point. The comment on Lightning Strike was bad (and this is part of why I this LS could be mafia) - it is townreading LS for a poor reason. LS in the quoted statement says Tictock "blatantly" doesn't want to stir up discussion - Tictock may not want to post if he has nothing to contribute ESPECIALLY in a post-restricted game. So for him to take an NAI point and paint it as mafia indicative is poor, and by extension the townread is poor. 110 Same concern as in 101, non sequitur means illogical (more or less) so placing that expectation within the first few posts of the game is just meh. It seems forced. Moving on to LS, which is easily explained. Post 96 is a poor reason (or at least a weak reason) to townread Gumshoe, or at least the reason he gave. As stated before my bigger concern is with post 101 though, trying to make something that is alignment indicative which isn't necessarily so. Actually ...noting that her pushes on Tumble and LS revolve around them townreading people for the bad reasons? First thing that seemed noteworthy from #178... + Show Spoiler + Updated reads from DYH (yes I know he's generally low volume, but still) and Shapelog would be great. Will probably read Shapelog again given what Tumble said about the quality of his answers, but seeing as how a lot of my townreads are playing and the number of people that have posted less than me, I get the feeling someone has me fooled, one mafia is pushing my lynch and the third is really playing under the radar. It's also amusing to note that a lot of HtS's push on LS was his early scumlean on me and never really committing afterwords. #187 + Show Spoiler + On April 21 2016 07:05 Half the Sky wrote: 10/40 LS, regarding your followthrough with Tictock (post 137, first quote) because your filter isn't very clear, where do you (LS) stand on him now and why? You have through posts 177 and 182 responding to him, but you haven't actually said anything regarding his alignment since you scumread him for his opening salve. I'm realizing I am a moron for quoting and will now be linking instead. #208 is the first true WoT and List post. Mentions the fact that I left SL off that list post back then a couple of times like it's a big deal. Noting that SL was in her list of "probably one mafia here" while FF was town in this post. Still pushing LS hard. #230 has some questions for SL and there is a common theme in HtS's filter about waiting for DYH (it's in posts before this too but I'm noting it now) Examples from #232 and #244 + Show Spoiler + My only concern with DYH is he's not commented on some of the others - at the very least I figured he could have weighed in on LS. There are a couple of other reasons why I think DYH could have posted the way he did but I want to see a bit more out of him. That said I'm not totally off DYH, like I said before commenting on others he hasn't mentioned yet would help me be able to better read him and weigh him against the other low volume posters for this game. #299 is when HtS says she preffers her "active lynch" of LS, but will consolidate on her "Inactive lynch" of SL. Which is followed up a little in #337 and she also tells Koshi she was ignoring FF for town reading him earlier. #337 is actually an important post imo, She quoted a post for the first time, thank the lord. She actually starts doing it from here on out it seems. It looks like #354 is where HtS starts scum reading FF.... One post that looks like scum meta. This folks is why I hate meta, this is an especially bad usage of it as well. It's interesting to note how upset HtS gets with Damdred in #418 for her switch to FF, and tells him to read her filter to find how it happens. Doing that now I actually agree wholeheartedly with Damdred, as HtS goes from talking about giving FF a pass for town meta to OMGUS to "There's scum meta" and flips her vote in a second. Yea looking back over all this the push on LS felt flimsy, it was mostly about him not having a distinct read on me yet she talks about giving a pass to less active players and herself never forms a distictive read on DYH all day. The swap to SL could well have been a bus by the way it happened and even noting the way that HtS called out my omission of SL early "very interesting" especially with how flimsy her flop onto the FF wagon was. Starting to feel a fool here... (I'm gunna keep going with this filter, but this is only Pg 3 of 7) | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
Blargh never mind. I thought I saw an issue with Tictock, but after re-reading he concludes town on Koshi. He'd called his LS read bull prior to Koshi changing his stance on LS but his final read was town based on other criteria. Meh. Also gives DYH a townread for his push on shape having a towny mindset while talking about a lot of vote stuff. Kinda a weird place to throw a TR out based on someone's push while talking about who voted who, maybe that's just me. Seems like HtS comes to the conclusion that Tumble and SL are a team during the night phase. Mostly from associations in #446 which don't look terrible, but are actually not that dissimilar from what HtS did herself (had a "scum lean" on SL and townread on FF but called out something from FF and swapped to him). Interesting how she pushes TW over SL in #457 re:Fide The reaction to SL's flip seem pretty genuine and the pushing on TW seems reasonably excited given how she was associating them. Only thing I notice as D2 starts off is the in #482 HtS talks about Tumble/Koshi/SL being her scumteam (both Koshi and Tumble for associations with SL) but when Tumble claims it's GB that HtS starts suspecting. #516 is a good reason as to why I need to read Gum's filter. This is actually a solid point if it pans out kus "SL doesn't care, but when your scum you tend to care, so he probably isn't mafia. Lets vote FF!" sounds pretty bad (but it does depend on what Gum's read on FF had been progressing as well). HtS also talks to DYH a little in this post, most notably saying "Admittedly a point against you is that there was zero interaction between you and sicklucker, either way." It might be hippo-critical of me (it prob is) but I can't recall any stance HtS has taken on DYH throughout this dive. Nothing much else stuck out to me throughout Pg4 of HtS's filter, so we are zooming into EoD2 where we see in #677 HtS is kinda defending DYH (though it looks more like a null read that she has on him) then in #689 is suddenly jumping to meta DYH "so I can deal with my phobia." Given that she loves to throw out meta and has done so a lot this game it's interesting to note that this is the first time she does it for DYH as a wagon starts to form on him. While she seems to be struggeling to decide between GB and DYH she says she's staying on GB in #712 and then in the very next post (#718) On April 25 2016 07:29 Half the Sky wrote: 31/40 It's DYH, here we go. The way her read on DYH developed from D1 to EoD2 seems very suspect, especially the final swap when literally one min before she had said she was staying on GB. While there was more stuff throught this cycle that seemed kinda townie or not as noteworthy to me I can't ignore how suspect HtS's EoD's were on both D1 and D2. I think I'm done, I'm about halfway through Pg 5 of HtS's filter and I'm not sure how much I'm gunna get from the next few pages. HtS definitely makes a fair bit of sense as mafia here. However, it's true that I'm kinda looking for things that might point to her being mafia, associations with DYH and SL, etc. So there is probably some level of confirmation bias going on. Therefor I'm going to take a break and come back to look at Gum's filter with similar scrutiny. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
I kinda like the opener #78 it's lighthearted and jokey as are the next few posts. Where Gum starts to get interesting is where he kinda vote jokes Damdred in #83 then in #93 acts more like it's a serious read. Then in the very next post #95 drops that read and backs off. I'd pass this up if it were clear that most of this was early game banter but the way he drops it in #95 doesn't give me that sense. #290 is where Gum reenters the game with his scum read on me, and in his next post #293 he says he is also willing to lynch FF for wasting posts. Here in #320 Gum has this weird read on SL and adds him to his lynch pool, but then decidesFF is better in #344. #344 was the post HtS called out but honestly it's not that bad since it was clear Gum was looking between SL and FF. If it weren't for Gum "accidently" voting SL I would say it looked like Gum never really intended to vote SL and his vote on FF was consistent with his reads. Overall D1 doesn't look great for Gum, his main pushes were on me and w/e the push on Damdred was, neither went anywhere. His read on SL could be indicative of him being scum with SL, however thinking more about the accidental vote thing I'm not sure it makes sense for scum to do that besides it being a complete mistake. If you are going to bus a teammate you want the credit for it or to gain something at least, voting SL like Gum did does nothing to help Gum or his team. Also his vote ending on FF fits with his reads. Some wierd stuff, but I'm not sure any of it fits scum agenda very well. Biggest things I noted where how Gum backed off his reads on Damdred and me rather easily/quickly, and his kinda weird read on SL nearing EoD. I like #431 just his assessment of the fight between me and him and his read on Shape for being the last to vote on FF feel pretty towny. They are things scum is unlikely to say as it narrows the lynch pool. D2 Gum starts off with WIFOM regarding why Damdred was killed and votes Tumble because of it, after Tumble claims he goes full maytr mode and dissapears. When he gets back he starts going pretty hard on GB and obv continued to do so up to GB's lynch last phase. The case on GB in #586 is Gum's first WoT. Here is a kinda interesting post, #589, it doesn't feel like the way scummates relate in thread. Especially telling DYH that he should lynch Gum before Koshi (who DYH was pushing then). This could be dissociation plays maybe but it doesn't feel like it. A bit less sure about #609 though it doesn't particularly seem like DYH cares if Gum dies of not. Moving forward towards EoD Gum was pushing GB hard and mentions he isn't very happy about the DYH lynch. Then in #714 we have like the worst bus ever if that's what Gum did here. Honestly I just can't believe someone who knows DYH is going to flip red would make a post like that. This filter dive is over. I'm not even going to bother looking at the whole Gum vs GB thing again because there is already a lot here that suggests Gum cannot be mafia. Hell even just the fact that Gum kept his strong scumread on GB from D2 here all the way to the point that GB flipped town is pretty town indicative. I'd like to know where Gum's head is at today though, him doing basically nothing today makes me a little worried he could still be scum trying to fence sit and see how things pan out, especially when the focus is very much so off him. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
I have a few misgivings still about Gum, but I also see some pretty decent reasons to townread him as well. His EoD's D1 and D2 don't look great, but honestly they dont really suggest much scum agenda either. He voted for SL in a way that gains no cred, and he voted DYH with what seemed like genuine regret to be giving up on his GB read. Neither of these moves were made to gain cred and help him survive and his pushing on GB and maytring while possible to come from scum seem more likely to be town, especially in the positions Gum has been in. Compared with HtS's filter and reads, it's almost night and day. HtS mentions DYH alot be refuses to make an effort to read him untill a wagon starts on him, THEN goes to find meta which suggests me could be scum. Her flip onto FF over SL looks pretty sus when she was townreading and defending FF for a good part of the day. She used meta to suddenly swap her read on FF to scum and swap off SL. Now again today she is using a largely Meta argument against me, and without really comparing her points to my town games. I could maybe be wrong about Shape, and I'll try to take a look at his filter tomorrow, but honestly having looked through all that I think it has to be HtS. ##Vote Half the Sky | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On April 30 2016 00:01 Half the Sky wrote: 3/40 Tictock, I know I didn't say it, but I read a few of your town games as well. In Haunted Mansion, for example, you were much more concise, a lot less tentative, and said your reads with conviction. They were a lot more pointed than they were in this game. That is one of the biggest reasons I actually brought up the posting just to post because you were quite the opposite there. And the reason I'm using meta is because I'm drawing parallels between your scum games and the stuff here. Which is hardly considering my town meta. All the rest of the stuff you talk about is this or that stuff I posted "feeling forced" or being contrived but without much to back that up. So yea, it's pretty weird that you haven't relooked at people like Gum who on the surface does seem fairly scummy with how his votes played out. You talk about how SL pushed you in #1053 as a defense for yourself. Sure SL made some posts that parroted what others like Damdred were saying about you, but it was hardly a push on you. Hell even the vote SL made on you was at a time when you were super unlikely to be lynched, and he hopped off just as fast as he hopped on. In #1054 today you say this about me: If people aren't willing to buy into my case or read into it, at least look back at the D1 play. Tictock generally emulates his town play well as mafia, so that's part of the reason I felt it necessary to highlight meta. Look at the reads between him and the flipped mafia, etc. Which is 100% a fear read only backed up with the meta stuff you had posted before. What reads between me and SL or DYH are you talking about? You never elaborate on stuff that actually happened THIS game. On April 30 2016 22:25 Half the Sky wrote: 8/40 This is actually pretty forced, and I'm glad Tumble actually saw this as well. Tumble was not talking about this post at all, what seems forced about it? I legit cannot fathom how you made a post where you referred to a post like this: #101 All underlined and in it's own paragraph, but do not quote the damed thing. Sure, I agree with what Tumble said and notice I did not scum read you just for putting post #'s in your posts. But I'm standing by the fact that posting like this is more likely to come from a scum mindset because it makes it so much harder to fact check and actually see what you are talking about half the time. It is not why I changed my mind, but it is something that bugged the hell out of me while reading your filter. On April 30 2016 22:25 Half the Sky wrote: 8/40 This is actually pretty forced, and I'm glad Tumble actually saw this as well. You say I'm taking stuff out of context in #1072 but you can see the context quite clearly from my posts or from your filter itself. You def had a TR on FF for most of D1, it was when he voted you that you suddenly backed off that read (omgus) then when the votes started moving you found that post and go "Oh this looks like it could be from his scum meta" and move your vote to him. Maybe you should actually compare how I voted (Stayed on Tumble, with some mild stuff about SL maybe being scum, no interest in jumping on FF) or Gum voted (Half-defended SL, moved to FF, who was an earlier scumread). But I think when you look at the EoD there you come off significantly more suspect HtS because your reads shift quite dramatically for little reason in a short time. Maybe I did take that one post about DYH out of context, I see you didn't actually vote for him. But my point about how DYH stays on the fridges of your reads until a wagon on him starts is still quite valid. It's as soon and LS and Fidei are voting DYH that you bring out some meta on him that could support him being scum where as before your position on him is almost always "lets wait and see". Which is very similar to what you did with FF D1 before you flopped your vote on him. This is opportunistic metaing at it's finest. By all means everyone should relook at the posts today and even try to filter dive us both. I'm pretty sure at this point that HtS is the last mafia though and since she is similarly sure then really you guys just have to decide who to lynch first between us. If that doesn't end the game then lynch the other one tomorrow and you are golden. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On April 20 2016 07:29 Shapelog wrote: Going to beat your arses. Fastest tortoise alive. As I already have said, Going to be focus on content this game. Will waste about 5 of my posts to get the ball moving Day 1. Then i switch into content mode. Weakish open but has a lighthearted tone with the joke about tortoises. Follows through with his first 5 posts being pretty jokey and devoid of much content. Next few posts is just responding to stuff. In #119 he seems to TR Damdred for getting the ball going despite the joke scumread, and he stands by his dislike of policy lynches. In #124 he disagrees with LS's early scumlean on me by pointing to my recent scumgames, says he will reread my resent posts. Follows through with that in #134 while he also mentions finding HtS's push on LS a little odd. Next post, #135 continues this line of thought pointing out a contradiction in HtS's posting (she was asking Tumble why he TR LS, when part of her push on Tumble was for why he was TRing LS). Post #200 is a bit interesting as it's Shapes first mention of SL and DYH, all he really says is that they are silent though. Noting that in #207 that Shape pushes Damdred a little for a small contradiction. Tracks that he is looking out for contradictions in peoples play and pushing those, even though his overall scumhunting and pushes are a little on the weak side. A Wild WoT appears! #241 is Shapes first WoT and list post, scum reads on me, SL, and GB. As we get into EoD Shape goes back to making smaller posts, and expresses concern for the vote spread in #241. In #286 Shape reviews his scumreads and concludes that SL has basically done nothing and places his vote on him with the next post #297. Shape expresses concerns with FF in #335 and later kinda haphazardly switches his vote to FF in #359. He later talks more about this switch to Damdred in #405. Eh, while the swap off SL to FF looks meh given the flips the way that Shape started to question FF and then still had reservations as he swapped doesn't look terribly opportunistic to me. It's also been pointed out that Shape stayed on SL much longer than a scummate probably would. I'll note that Shape had a TR on FF back in his big list post, but it was based on feels and Shape admits he hasn't bothered to try to meta FF at all. So far I'm not seeing much to really sway me either way here, a few townie thoughts and reads but nothing that strong and EoD reads and vote moving ended up being mafia sided but again it's not that strong. This was also covering about half of Shapes filter, so he has kinda dropped off fairly hard this game. Maybe he's mafia suffering burn out? Back to reading... In #479 Shape questions HtS's associative read on Tumble and SL. That's all we get before he has RL issues of getting thrown in jail (I'll just assume this is true). Once back in the game he votes DYH. On April 25 2016 07:26 Shapelog wrote: I've litterlay don't have time to read shit. I voted DYH because I can't remember anything other than the sus. about him and that is about it. Still reading thoy and this is his only other post before DYH flips. On April 25 2016 07:29 Shapelog wrote: Someone give me a quick reason why the thread thinks they are scum so I can catch up faster. Personally, just skimming through GB's fliter, I like it a bit more than DYH. Looking into the timeline a little, Shape returns to the game when it is only LS voting DYH and his vote and followup on DYH feels too weak to be a bus tbh. If Shape was just mafia lurking here it's odd he'd return like this to go for a weak bus on DYH with no attempt to discuss/defend DYH at all. Skimming the rest of Shapes filter kus I don't want to spend all day on this. I'm noting that Shape starts to pick up the posting after DYH dies, there's quite a few WoT type posts poping up. Seems to jump on Fidei, then goes back and forth between me and him a little after the claim (agrees with something I questioned about Fidei's claim, while also questioning my response to Fidei's questions to me). Idk, I could maybe see Shape being mafia from his filter, but I don't think the pieces fit all that well. Then also factoring in that DYH had a fairly strong push on Shape D1 I think it's pretty unlikely that Shape is mafia. Also this reasoning still stands firm imo, even though it's kinda bad. (this was my bad reason to townread him earlier) Last game as the last mafia alive Shape took 2 blue's with him into 3 man lylo, and here we know that Fidei was RB'd D1 so the last mafia has to be the RB. If Shape was scum here I'm like 90% sure he would have RB'd Fidei and left him alive for the WIFOM, especially since Fidei was fairly set in his scumread on HtS. Plus everyone but Koshi has Shape as like confirmed town so I'm fairly sure he's been spewed town. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
I'm pretty sure HtS is the last mafia, I saw lots of stuff that looks mafia motivated especially around her reads and votes EoD's. It's not impossible for Gum or Shape to be mafia here but their filters don't really support it to well. So if you guys lynch me for the love of god at least step it up for LyLo and do some proper rereading for yourselves. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On April 29 2016 09:32 Tictock wrote: Good I can put that tinfoil to rest. I haven't really read HtS's case on me yet, but she made good choices picking out my strongest scum games. Pretty sure I post just to post as either alignment though... I mean if that's what you wanna call it when I make posts like this one. (if this weren't a post restricted game I might well just stop and post now, but...) Without reading filters Shape seems like the obv choice from my PoV, but I should do you all justice and actually read HtS's filter (Hell just the fact that she's been making nonstop WoT type posts might be something to note, kus god does it make me not wanna read her filter) and recheck Gum. I could tinfoil Koshi, but honestly he might deserve the win if he is mafia here. The buddying has been spot on if mafia. All for now, I'll do things when I feel like it. Never should have bothered reading filters.... | ||
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