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[M][Cap] Tortoise Mafia - Page 26

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Koshi
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Belgium38799 Posts
April 23 2016 13:15 GMT
#501
On April 22 2016 07:16 Koshi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 22 2016 07:14 gumshoe wrote:
I kinda get the feel sl doesn't care about this game, normally when you have scum mates your kinda invested / : as you let down your team when you scrub it up.

Ff is the better choice methinks.

Then why are you voting for SL?????????????????????????????????


Mistake XD, [/QUOTE]
Imagine if this is a slip.

lolololol
I had a good night of sleep.
Koshi
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Belgium38799 Posts
April 23 2016 13:21 GMT
#502
On April 22 2016 07:16 gumshoe wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 22 2016 07:16 Koshi wrote:
On April 22 2016 07:14 gumshoe wrote:
I kinda get the feel sl doesn't care about this game, normally when you have scum mates your kinda invested / : as you let down your team when you scrub it up.

Ff is the better choice methinks.

Then why are you voting for SL?????????????????????????????????


Mistake XD,

great way to waste a post. But too funny not to put it in here in its full glory.

Then there are these (defending sl?):

On April 22 2016 07:01 gumshoe wrote:
Sl should have posted more by now / : for..... Reasons I am not supposed to say exist.

Could kill ff as he's been active but lack luster but that is apparently his meta so watcha gonna do.

I probably won't lynch outside those 2 plus tick for today.


On April 22 2016 07:14 gumshoe wrote:
I kinda get the feel sl doesn't care about this game, normally when you have scum mates your kinda invested / : as you let down your team when you scrub it up.

Ff is the better choice methinks.


Both quotes look pretty bad. Suggesting to town that they should not lynch sl.
And then after he joined the fefe wagon he kinda stops playing the game (which he didn't do after voting sl, then he kept looking for a "better" target. And start apologizing to TT.

On April 22 2016 07:19 gumshoe wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 22 2016 07:17 Tictock wrote:
On April 22 2016 07:14 gumshoe wrote:
I kinda get the feel sl doesn't care about this game, normally when you have scum mates your kinda invested / : as you let down your team when you scrub it up.

Ff is the better choice methinks.


How come you are not pushing me?


Cause it's not happening, and my day is shit anyways so maybe that's for the best. also my cp is kinda fucked up so posting this all from phone, I don't feel cozy really pushing someone without quotes and time stamps.



On April 22 2016 07:27 gumshoe wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 22 2016 07:22 Tictock wrote:
On April 22 2016 07:19 gumshoe wrote:
On April 22 2016 07:17 Tictock wrote:
On April 22 2016 07:14 gumshoe wrote:
I kinda get the feel sl doesn't care about this game, normally when you have scum mates your kinda invested / : as you let down your team when you scrub it up.

Ff is the better choice methinks.


How come you are not pushing me?


Cause it's not happening, and my day is shit anyways so maybe that's for the best. also my cp is kinda fucked up so posting this all from phone, I don't feel cozy really pushing someone without quotes and time stamps.


And yet you joined the SL wagon and now the FF wagon without either of those while you seemed to return to the game with a scumread on me...

Feels like you are being pretty opportunistic here and just going with the flow rather than pursing your own thoughts and reads.


Sl wagon join was an accident XD phone fingers are on auto pilot

Also I'm not bieng opportunistic, I'm bieng realistic. You have been far more active then me, regardless of alignment your playing a better game honestly ATM, and I can't use qoutes and shit on this thing. So yeah, I don't really feel like screaming tick rock is mafia impotently till flip. Better to lend my weight to whichever said I think has a higher chance of red. After, all there is more than one scum.


Looks like a good lynch. I also think he is acting really guilty in his last couple posts. Makes sense if you are mafia and you know what you did/how you look.
I had a good night of sleep.
Koshi
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Belgium38799 Posts
April 23 2016 13:29 GMT
#503
btw. If damdred was shot it could be because of his Fidei (=James?) read. So gumshoe, if you want to survive, I think you want to look into him.

Because the Damdred shot does not point to you.
I had a good night of sleep.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
April 23 2016 13:49 GMT
#504
? Wtf?
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
April 23 2016 13:57 GMT
#505
I've made it more or less to EOD1 in my read through. Dani does not have a progression on FF. She null reads him, then town reads him, then moves onto him at the last minute without explanation.

Dani do you at least accept that is highly suspicious?
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
April 23 2016 14:33 GMT
#506
Having read back through the filters, I've sort of talked myself back round on HTS and TT. There is a lot lot of suspicious stuff in their filters, but nobody else seems to see the link / soft defending I see, and I may just be paranoid. Both have had some pretty good analysis since the D2 flip. And as I said before, SL went after HTS pretty hard in circumstances where it was more than possible she might actually become a target.

As I said before, if Dani makes it to D4ish, I'm going to get the mega tin foil out. But for now, I'm okay with her as town.

TW is town obviously. I'm pretty sold on LS as town, actually.

The issue I have now is that all of Shape, GB and DYH have been particularly underwhelming. I'd put shape at the higher end of that, but DYH and GB have been borderline useless. I think looking carefully at their filters, which I'll do now, is likely to yield dividends in terms of solving this game.

(Yes, I accept I just flipped on my two top scum reads, was wrong on Damdred and SL and have also been very questionable this game. But I know I'm town, so there).
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
April 23 2016 14:35 GMT
#507
I didn't address gumshoe in my post above. I'm filing him under "I have no fucking clue." The self-meta inactive people are so difficult.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
April 23 2016 15:33 GMT
#508
@DYH what's going on in your personal life bro? Busy at work? New girlfriend with legs that go all the way down?
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
April 23 2016 15:41 GMT
#509
I want to believe GB is town, but he has been so low energy, and his list post was so nit-picky, I cannot rule him out.

The main thing I want from GB is to get over losing Damdred, his only strong read, and tell the rest of us what he's thinking.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
April 23 2016 15:44 GMT
#510
Just had a thought: all the people TRing me for garbage meta reasons (DYH, Dani, TT) are probably all town. Because I think my play in this game has been pretty damn awful so far, and any of them could have easily pushed me as a mislynch.
LightningStrike
Profile Joined February 2011
United States14277 Posts
April 23 2016 16:11 GMT
#511
Hey James since you are around how many mafia you think was on the FF wagon? We know 1 mafia voted off wagon like last half hour or so before EoD in Sicklucker.
May the next light shine/Former #1 Alliance LoL fan/ Current Teamliquid LoL Fan
GlowingBear
Profile Joined May 2014
Brazil12446 Posts
April 23 2016 16:25 GMT
#512
On April 24 2016 00:41 Fidei86 wrote:
I want to believe GB is town, but he has been so low energy, and his list post was so nit-picky, I cannot rule him out.

The main thing I want from GB is to get over losing Damdred, his only strong read, and tell the rest of us what he's thinking.


Hello.

Nitpicky on what?

I don't trust a single word from Koshi. This is where I'm at atm. Everything he says looks forced to me.
I'm adorable.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12970 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-04-23 16:27:37
April 23 2016 16:27 GMT
#513
Day 2:

gumshoe (3) - Tictock, gumshoe, Koshi
Tumblewood (1) - Half the Sky, Koshi, Tictock, gumshoe

Not voted (6) - Shapelog, Fidei86, DoYouHas, Tumblewood, GlowingBear, LightningStrike
At the current vote, gumshoe is slated to be lynched.
until deadline.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
April 23 2016 16:29 GMT
#514
On April 24 2016 01:25 GlowingBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 24 2016 00:41 Fidei86 wrote:
I want to believe GB is town, but he has been so low energy, and his list post was so nit-picky, I cannot rule him out.

The main thing I want from GB is to get over losing Damdred, his only strong read, and tell the rest of us what he's thinking.


Hello.

Nitpicky on what?

I don't trust a single word from Koshi. This is where I'm at atm. Everything he says looks forced to me.

All of your reads were based on one or two posts from those people, and your issues with those posts were ... Minor I'd say.

So are you saying you think Koshi is Mafia?
GlowingBear
Profile Joined May 2014
Brazil12446 Posts
April 23 2016 16:46 GMT
#515
On April 24 2016 01:29 Fidei86 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 24 2016 01:25 GlowingBear wrote:
On April 24 2016 00:41 Fidei86 wrote:
I want to believe GB is town, but he has been so low energy, and his list post was so nit-picky, I cannot rule him out.

The main thing I want from GB is to get over losing Damdred, his only strong read, and tell the rest of us what he's thinking.


Hello.

Nitpicky on what?

I don't trust a single word from Koshi. This is where I'm at atm. Everything he says looks forced to me.

All of your reads were based on one or two posts from those people, and your issues with those posts were ... Minor I'd say.

So are you saying you think Koshi is Mafia?


Yes.

I wasn't being nitpicky. Damdred turns out to be town. I've townread him based on a few posts. Those initial posts were pretty informational to me
I'm adorable.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
April 23 2016 16:50 GMT
#516
Okay. I'm leaning town of you I think. What do you think of DYH?

@LS Don't think that's a helpful way of finding scum
Half the Sky
Profile Joined May 2014
Germany9029 Posts
April 23 2016 16:58 GMT
#517
8/40

Alright, the vig claim (which I'll believe) - I'll reconstruct.

##unvote

I'm concerned for GB, not only just as a solo vote, but if you look at his questions to Damdred in night phase, it appears to such like a combination of buddying and abdication of blame (he was a solo voter but tried to guilt Damdred for not realising the wagon wasn't hitting mafia).

Also look at whom he suggested - Koshi/gumshoe/LS. I am still somewhat leery with Koshi (pending re-read of his most recent posts - I'm not fully caught up), but he doesn't seem to be going anywhere with anything.

The biggest indicator of an associative read between GlowingBear and SL might be Day 1, look at how the SL read just DROPS from post 142 to 253 and after. And considering how SL pushed me and that GB didn't put me on his post-lynch suspicion list (recap: it was Koshi/LS/gumshoe), it is quite suspicious.

Post requoted:

On April 21 2016 02:11 GlowingBear wrote:
4
Ok since SL never answered me, I must say I don't like his posts

He has an opening calling Damdred "null" (the only thing I can understabd from bolding a name) because damdred was wasting posts. This is bad because:

1) It is impossible to have contentful posts in the beginning of the game
2) Calling someone null is saying something someone did is not alignment indicative, which means (I) he is wasting a post because he is saying nothing contributive, and (ii) he is trying to look contributive while saying nothing at all.

Wanting to lynch LS in the beginning of the game for wasting posts just reinforces this perspective


On April 22 2016 03:04 GlowingBear wrote:
I know the case on SL isn't the strongest. Although I think his attitude was suspicious, I only wanted to keep developing discussion. I also like to push a target in a way everything is explained in details, whatever slignment he is, because I think mafia has a hard time covering all aspects of their stories. Regardless if a post is NAI or AI, a hard push will almost always reveal inconsistencies if the player's intention is made up


Some feedback on that would be nice.
The phoenix must burn to emerge. - Janet Fitch
Half the Sky
Profile Joined May 2014
Germany9029 Posts
April 23 2016 16:59 GMT
#518
9/40

I also noticed one minor mistake in last night's reconstruct, so I'll re-colour with Tumbleweed in blue...

Shapelog I feel from pure voting is unlikely to be mafia, otherwise he was in the process of engineering a sick bus on sicklucker. IDK. I need to double check that read progression.

Vote Reconstruction v2

2124, approx 2h prior to EoD

On April 22 2016 05:24 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
LightningStrike (2) - Half the Sky, GlowingBear
DoYouHas (2) - Koshi, Tumblewood
Half the Sky (1) - LightningStrike
Tumblewood (1) - Tictock
Koshi (1) - sicklucker
Gumshoe (1) - Fidei86
Not voted (5) - Shapelog, DoYouHas, Damdred, gumshoe, Fecalfeast


2244, approx 45m prior to EoD - sicklucker was the hammer

On April 22 2016 06:44 Hapahauli wrote:
Sicklucker (3) - FecalFeast, Damdred, Shapelog
LightningStrike (2) - Half the Sky, GlowingBear
DoYouHas (2) - Koshi, Tumblewood
Half the Sky (1) - LightningStrike
Tumblewood (1) - Tictock
Koshi (1) - sicklucker
Gumshoe (1) - Fidei86
TicTock (1) - Gumshoe

Not Voting (1) - DoYouHas


2315, or 15m to EoD - sickucker STILL the lynch with most votes
DISCLAIMER: I reconstructed from here on out with strikethroughs this vote from the voting thread - call me out if I've made a mistake.

Sicklucker (4) - FecalFeast, Damdred, Shapelog, Half the Sky, gumshoe
Fecalfeast (3) - Tumblewood, Koshi, Damdred
LightningStrike (1) - Half the Sky, GlowingBear
Half the Sky (1) - LightningStrike
Tumblewood (1) - Tictock
Koshi (1) - sicklucker
Gumshoe (1) - Fidei86
TicTock (0) - Gumshoe
Shapelog (1) - DoYouHas
DoYouHas (0) - Koshi, Tumblewood

2316, or 14m to EoD - gumshoe effectively hammers FF

Fecalfeast (4) - Tumblewood, Koshi, Damdred, gumshoe
Sicklucker (3) - FecalFeast, Damdred, Shapelog, Half the Sky, gumshoe
LightningStrike (1) - Half the Sky, GlowingBear
Half the Sky (1) - LightningStrike
Tumblewood (1) - Tictock
Koshi (1) - sicklucker
Gumshoe (1) - Fidei86
TicTock (0) - Gumshoe
Shapelog (1) - DoYouHas
DoYouHas (0) - Koshi, Tumblewood

2327, or 3m to EoD - Town pile on FF

Fecalfeast (6) - Tumblewood, Koshi, Damdred, gumshoe, Half the Sky, Shapelog
Half the Sky (2) - LightningStrike, sicklucker
LightningStrike (1) - Half the Sky, GlowingBear
Tumblewood (1) - Tictock
Gumshoe (1) - Fidei86
TicTock (0) - Gumshoe
Shapelog (1) - DoYouHas
Damdred (1) - Fecalfeast
DoYouHas (0) - Koshi, Tumblewood
Koshi (0) - sicklucker
Sicklucker (0) - FecalFeast, Damdred, Shapelog, Half the Sky, gumshoe

2330 - End of Day 1

Fecalfeast (5) - Tumblewood, Koshi, Damdred, gumshoe, Half the Sky, Shapelog
Half the Sky (2) - LightningStrike, sicklucker, Damdred
LightningStrike (1) - Half the Sky, GlowingBear
Tumblewood (1) - Tictock
Gumshoe (1) - Fidei86
Shapelog (1) - DoYouHas
Damdred (1) - Fecalfeast
Koshi (1) - sicklucker, sicklucker
DoYouHas (0) - Koshi, Tumblewood
Sicklucker (0) - FecalFeast, Damdred, Shapelog, Half the Sky, gumshoe
TicTock (0) - Gumshoe

So looking at this, I am a bit worried, I still have my phobias from Day 1 on Koshi but I got a WIFOM feeling from gumshoe's last posts. I think there's one mafia between Koshi/gumshoe based on the Fecalfeast wagon.

Fidei had been all over the shop with his reads, but I gotta re-read him.

From votes alone, Shapelog is looking better but I need to see whether shit is off between him and sicklucker. I know sicklucker commented jack all on him, it was all about me.

DYH - I will put questions to him in another post. He's just posted too little and we just need more informations from him.

Tictock, if mafia is a sleeper mafia...but I'm doubting it based on the quality of his posts. I'm doubting it at the moment. I'll re-read that filter that to be sure.

For now, it's one of in Koshi/gumshoe as mafia.
Fidei needs a review, Shapelog needs a review for filter.
There is one mafia somewhere in DYH/GlowingBear.

Tictock and LS I am thinking are town.

This is where I stand atm.
The phoenix must burn to emerge. - Janet Fitch
Half the Sky
Profile Joined May 2014
Germany9029 Posts
April 23 2016 17:25 GMT
#519
10/40

If I absolutely had to pick a mafia between gumshoe and Koshi....right now? I'd say gumshoe.

One additional point from the votes against gumshoe is the 2315 mark - where gumshoe is the 4th vote when sicklucker is the lynch in a 3:3 tie (voting thread) by a 6 minute spread (Damdred switched to FF). A late vote like that indicates he could have been bussing sicklucker, and these posts don't help that position.

On April 22 2016 07:14 gumshoe wrote:
I kinda get the feel sl doesn't care about this game, normally when you have scum mates your kinda invested / : as you let down your team when you scrub it up.

Ff is the better choice methinks.


On one hand this is a bad reason to townread or eliminate SL from contention even ignoring SL's meta, which I'll make the assumption gumshoe didn't know.

Big list post he's nulling SL day 1. No interaction after SL's re-entry. Not much in the night phase....

If they are both town, then we have a real problem on our hands because that would mean Shapelog is playing really well or all the mafia voted off wagon.

And vig being an investigative role means we most likely do not have a DT as our second role. It's possible but not likely.




DYH - questions for you.

I'm reading your filter. Your latest reads:

On April 23 2016 07:28 DoYouHas wrote:
Shape - We'll be getting into this more today, but my original reasons for voting him are still good and he is likely scum.

Koshi - I want to say Koshi's active and aggressive style is town. But he jumped up and down on me for valid points against Shape. He jumped up and down on HtS for the null read of FF while ignoring things I thought pointed to her being town. I don't think we get into the EoD we had without at least 1 scum in the movers and shakers. (Koshi, HtS, Damd, and maybe TT) Koshi pushed the lynch of 2 town for sure and probably 3. He is attacking town, leading lynches on town and after being proven wrong on FF he still wants to off HtS instead of stepping back and reassessing. Thinking he could be scum.

HTS - She seems focused and productive. I like the way she pursued her scumreads on LS and TW early. She isn't getting mad at all the pressure thrown her way, trying to talk to people. Last time I caught her as scum she used her higher activity to spread suspicion on lots of the town and then letting others take up her ideas and run with them. She isn't doing that here. Only her EoD vote leaves doubt for me. According to NM HtS voting off her main targets to lynch someone scumming her is a big tell. I'm still going with my gut and thinking she is town.

Fid - I'm pretty familiar with Fid's scum game. I don't think this is it. Scum fid would be even less active than he has been here. He wouldn't be shying away from getting into it with LS like we are seeing here. The well-documented troubles that Fid has with LS would be a great excuse to fake activity without producing content. I also don't think we would see that drunk post from scum Fid.

SL - I'm putting off making a decision on him. I don't have strong feelings either way and he promised more activity today.

Damdred - Cautiously optimistic.

Gumshoe - Cautiously optimistic.

LS - dunno

TW, GB, TT havent gotten to yet


I see we're on the same page re: Koshi, prob Fidei.

Admittedly a point against you is that there was zero interaction between you and sicklucker, either way.

(1) Do you think Shape's voting patterns make him less likely mafia in your eyes? Or are you seeing something in those too that I might be not? (Anyone else?)
(2) We're going to need you to weigh in on GlowingBear and gumshoe.




I gotta AFK again. I'll finish thoroughly reading later today or tonight...
The phoenix must burn to emerge. - Janet Fitch
Koshi
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Belgium38799 Posts
April 23 2016 17:26 GMT
#520
I like how Fidei is like "Hey GB do you think Koshi is scum"

And then

GB is like "Yes"

And then

Fidei is like "you R pretty cool bro, I townread you"
I had a good night of sleep.
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