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Trfel
7015 Posts
On November 18 2015 23:55 disformation wrote: What the heck is a "fear read" anyway?Now what I found in Trfel's filter: Isn't that whole post basically a fear read on geript? Fear reads are bad mkay. Is he trying to sow distraction? Not a fan but I need to read his filter for conclusions. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
My case on VisceraEyes still stands. VisceraEyes had a sort-of plausible explanation for the main point of my case, however his recent lack of activity is extremely mafia-motivated. He vanished right after people started scumreading him less, right after he was pretty safe from the Day 1 lynch. And he hasn't come back since. There's no risk of him being lynched tonight, so there's no point in him playing. This feels like mafia who is being lazy and playing to survive, but he knows that he won't be able to survive for too long and that's killing his motivation. I thought that FarahBlackwing was probably town, but MoosyDoosy's case brought up several good points. FarahBlackwing's response, however, was even more suspicious. FarahBlackwing hasn't shown much determination at all lately, and her unwillingness to seriously answer the case is not at all what I would expect from town. She said she's busy today, I guess I'll give her a day before I make any conclusions. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On November 19 2015 04:38 FarahBlackwing wrote: Can you please respond to the points that MoosyDoosy brought up?Trfel obviously not reading the game In a more direct manner than you "have", since you failed to address the points with the most merit? I'm not the only one who liked parts of MoosyDoosy's case. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Early read on The Shining + Show Spoiler + On November 16 2015 05:52 geript wrote: I don't like Shining. He feels really different; not because he's posting a bit more than I remember him. His posting just seems off and not pointed to me. On November 16 2015 15:16 geript wrote: Hm, that's strange. Where did The Shining go?I'm 99% sure I've coached disinformation. I just can't remember if it was as scum or town. I really want to look at that before I give a full read on him. The bolded doesn't terribly mark me either way other than the question mark. He's made what would seem to be questions out of statements a few times. He kinda bugs me a bit but without going back to see how he thinks it's hard to say if it's scummy or just bad play. Right now. 7/7---VE/Ritoky 6/7-- 5/7-- 4.5/7--Farah 4/7--everyone else 3.5/7--Breshke 3/7--Disinfo 2/7--Trfel 1/7--Moosy I'm seriously like 99% sure moosy is scum. On November 17 2015 17:16 geript wrote: One last post. I'll be up around noon hopefully to look at things. I think Shinig or moosy would be my lynch choice. On November 18 2015 02:24 geript wrote: Two more posts about The Shining from geript's filter.Shining 5.5/7--I could be wrong on him; it's not just the fact that he's quoting in every post or thereabouts. He's no over explainy which he does as mafia. He's not really disconnected from the thread. He's had a good thought or two. Meta fits which is enough for now. I don't understand this progression, at all. Geript started out by saying that The Shining is mafia, then completely dropped his read on him, then put him as a top lynch, then decided that he's likely town for things that have already been said. On November 18 2015 01:05 Trfel wrote: Here's a post that I made before geript's post here, townreading The Shining. FarahBlackwing said similar things as well. These points were clearly visible before, geript just ignored them until he came back with this list post. He didn't reference any of the people who had posted the same thoughts before. Basically geript wasn't paying attention to one of his top scumreads.I don't want to lynch The Shining. He said that he was trying to do more work right when the game began to make up for not being able to play Monday and Tuesday, and his posting rate was much higher than it generally is. In addition to activity, his posts show attempts to gain information. Many of The Shining's scum games show fewer, larger posts to try and stay alive, rather than trying to pressure things to gain information. FarahBlackwing's post about The Shining was very good, particularly with regards to The Shining's slight shows of emotion this game. It's very different from The Shining's most recent mafia game. I could lynch MoosyDoosy, but I'm more confident in scott31337. MoosyDoosy is a wild card, scott31337 generally puts forward a good effort as town. This isn't 100% clear, I don't have time to explain it fully, but nothing changed in a very long time with The Shining, since he was busy and afk after the early portion of the game. These same points were clear the entire time. Many of geript's posts are just criticizing others for no reason/bad reasons + Show Spoiler + On November 17 2015 15:30 geript wrote: Breshke makes a point that leads him to a town lean on geript. I questioned it, and Breshke responded. The discussion ended there, and then geript made the above post about 8 hours later. Town!geript shouldn't care about this, because the discussion has been long since over, and because the conclusion isn't incorrect. Geript is not drawing any conclusion himself from this post, either. There's just zero reason for this post to be made as town.There's really nothing special about it. For scientific studies, usually we talk about rating things on an odd scale (5 or 7 usually). 1 and 7 are extremes; 4 is exactly in the middle, 2-3 and 5-6 leaning but not there. It just actually fits things better: 7/7=total town no doubts 6/7=90% town but some doubts 5/7=more likely town than not but ??? 4/7=null 3/7=more likely scum than not but ??? 2/7=90% scum but some doubts 1/7=total scum Like this is such an irrelevant point. get back to something important. On November 17 2015 15:22 geript wrote: Bold emphasis mine.Trfel has stayed teh same; but I kinda don't want to lynch him D1 because I remembered when I woke up that Tina says he always looks scummy D1 but gets better. I didn't like his stuff on Disinfo; just felt over inflated. It's not awful, but it is a bit over inflated it hink Given that I said here that I messed up and misinterpreted something for the most important point of my post, geript's statement is an extremely accurate description. Which in no way makes me mafia, it means that I messed up. His conclusion comes from nowhere. Running out of time, there are more examples, but I need to get this out before the deadline. Finally, geript's reads on Breshke and me don't show anything. Geript never addressed the points about my case on VisceraEyes, one of his strongest townreads. He just said that my case is awful. When I said that he never addressed my case, he posted criticisms of a few random thoughts on scott31337. He didn't even comment on my more complete case on scott31337, he commented on the extremely brief summary. He also drastically misrepresents my statements. His read on Breshke involves a ton of claims that just aren't true. On November 18 2015 14:46 geript wrote: Breshke doesn't have questions that go nowhere, and he definitely has drawn conclusions. I described that in the very post that he quoted. Geript just said "no, Trfel is misrepresenting things" without addressing that my argument is based on facts which were clearly laid out in the post.My points on Breshke covered this entirely. Breshke should not be read on his reads. It's about how he interacts with and acts in response to what's happening in the thread. Him blandly asking questions that go no where and lead to no conclusions is part of his scum meta. So what Trfel has pointed towards is specifically his scum meta and Trfel is trying to paint him town for it. Conclusion I'm not completely sure on geript yet. He seems really scummy, but he also has a large ego as town. Geript, if you are town, humor me for a moment. Explain things in a way that a lesser player (aka the vast majority of this game) can understand (aka no meta, and a clear connection between evidence and conclusions). Why is Breshke mafia? Why is VisceraEyes town? Why are the points that I have brought up invalid? I've demonstrated how my conclusions come from the thread, it's your turn. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On November 19 2015 04:48 disformation wrote: Okay, well you're simply wrong.Sry missed this. Eatings right now. A fear read is basically this "geript is super good as mafia, he could pull this off as mafia!" part you put in italics. You know as in I fear he could be mafia, because that would be very bad for town, so I need to be super suspicious of him. You don't apply this directly to geript but indirectly via this scott association thing. But you don't have any other evidence of geript being mafia than this association-fear read thing. Several times I've described that geript's play does not make sense at all to me. I still haven't put it all in one place, I ran out of time with the above post. But geript's play has a ton of things that I'm suspicious of. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I don't even know any more. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I know I'm not the only one who asked for that. Would FarahBlackwing fakeclaim here as town? I would think not, but am I wrong? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On November 17 2015 08:38 FarahBlackwing wrote: I can't see this coming from a person who would fakeclaim here as town. That settles that.Then your vote where your idea is instead of doing the opposite of what you said you would do. And not sure what you are referring to with the like Damdred thing and putting my gender in quotation marks. I really do not care if I am eliminated at this stage. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On November 19 2015 07:13 ritoky wrote: Wait, what? Story time.she is a new player, they are more prone to get ants in their pants and claim stupidly or too early than to make a fake claim that they know will get them into a screaming match w/ 40+ hours left in the day....unless you're me and fake claim cop your 2nd game ever. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On November 19 2015 07:33 FarahBlackwing wrote: Why does it matter so much to you if the vigilante claims now or not? The vigilante will claim when the time is correct in their own judgement.Because the correct play is for the vigilante to claim as the day begins to have as much information as possible. The only time a vigilante should not claim is with multiple shots. Like, imagine that the vigilante claims right now. How does this help you more as opposed to the vigilante claiming later? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I'm really, really considering lynching FarahBlackwing here. The only reason for her to claim this early is that she doesn't have enough time to properly defend herself. On November 19 2015 06:53 FarahBlackwing wrote: So she's really busy, but she spent time trying to guess who the vigilante is (of all things) instead of responding to the case? Instead of trying to find mafia?I'll head this off now probably not enough time to fight off a snowball. Hard claiming blue. On November 19 2015 07:38 FarahBlackwing wrote: This is in no way a justification for the time spent.Read what I wrote and apply it. Information is king withholding information when you are a glorified vt now is anti-town especially the leathery out wait the more mafia can mess with town. To me, it almost feels like FarahBlackwing's attempts to find the vigilante were to figure out what the thread influence would look like post-claim, which is useful to know if she's mafia. Especially if she's mafia trying to do something like fakeclaim. Fecalfeast doesn't have a large amount of thread presence, and imagining for a moment that he became confirmed town by claiming vigilante, I don't think that much would change. Meaning that mafia thread influence would be maximized, encouraging a fakeclaim. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On November 19 2015 07:49 FarahBlackwing wrote: Then can you please answer the points that MoosyDoosy brought up?Never lynch an uncc blue your dumb otherwise. Can you please explain how it is beneficial to try and figure out who the vigilante is? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On November 19 2015 07:56 ritoky wrote: Okay, so let's assume for a moment that you're right, and the vigilante is stupid for not claiming.because at worst the vigi is just a confirmed town which lowers the lynch pool by 1 (2 if farah is legit). at best the vigi baits a cc from mafia and we get a 1:1. there is actually 0 reason to not claim as vigi post-shot unless they are trying to avoid having me tell them why they are stupid for shooting geript or ve. We find who the vigilante is, then we know who is stupid. Yay? The vigilante wouldn't avoid claiming if they're under a sufficient amount of suspicion anyway, no matter what. So you can assume that the vigilante isn't that highly suspected. So IT DOESN'T MATTER. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On November 19 2015 08:10 ritoky wrote: Okay, that's simply not my point. I just cannot see how it is at all beneficial to try and figure out who the vigilante is.it is the denial of a universal TR to town for what i can only assume is a lack of understanding of mechanics or selfish reasons...it is just anti-town to not claim; if you don't understand then your mechanics are not strong enough. It will always be heavily speculative until they claim. Furthermore, the simple fact that they aren't claiming suggests that the gain for town is not all that large. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On November 19 2015 08:14 FarahBlackwing wrote: Of course the vigilante will claim if they're at risk of being lynched. That was never in question.Yeah that's dumb. Vigilante should always claim after he's out of bullets. For the same reason self aware Miller's and named vanilla townies should claim. More confirmed people leads town to better lynched. I have three 8 hour third shifts with mandatory overtime recertification in the mornings. My time is precious. Assuming that the vigilante is not currently at risk of being lynched, which is an extremely safe assumption, why do you care about the vigilante claiming more than you do finding mafia? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On November 19 2015 08:23 FarahBlackwing wrote: Sure.##unvote ##Vote farahblackwing Lets ride ##vote FarahBlackwing | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On November 19 2015 08:33 Fecalfeast wrote: But when it's this bad? And when the person claiming is being this malicious?Ritoky is correct. Even if the claim feels like buttcheeks it's still uncc'd And right after we saw MoosyDoosy avoid a lynch through martyring? This simply isn't town play. Giving up a power role for this is not a trade that should even need to happen. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On November 19 2015 08:39 Fecalfeast wrote: Yeah, okay.1. Unless someone claims a vig shot on Geript, he was the only one adamant about trfel being scum and was getting upset that nobody listened to him. 2. His day 1 suspicions from his filter: VE, Moose, Scott, Me. I know 3/4 of those are town 100% while moose is showing some towny play since yesterday. 3. Totally willing to vote an uncc'd blue because she's martyring. Did you read the reasons for my scumreads? Particularly the geript one? | ||
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