On June 30 2013 21:48 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2013 21:47 Vivax wrote:On June 30 2013 21:29 Oatsmaster wrote:On June 30 2013 21:00 Vivax wrote:
Apologies, mistook that for another defense of marv's claim (Interpreted it as: Marv would have had a 50 % chance of getting counterclaimed and dying).
That doesn't change the fact that marv did the same thing as scum in another game, and as Oats pointed out, in all of this you keep assuming that marv is town. He did the same 17 minutes into the game in the other game.
Ok 2 things here.
1. Rayn is scum for instantly taking marv as modconfirmed town.
2. Marv is null for doing this as scum before.
If Rayn is scum marv is likely town imo.
This exudates so much confidence into marv being town that I don't see it coming from scum about scum.
if someone was dumb enough to fakeclaim after marv
well yeah Im just saying that Rayn isnt scum for not knowing about previous game where marv fakeclaimed miller and replaced out.
Rayn is scummy for his unnatural confidence into marv being town.
Followed by him not adapting his opinion to the new information posted about marv and using whatever he can to justify his unjustified townread.
What we have in Rayn is probably a scum seeing a townie claim and immediately taking sides for the townie.
From a scum point of view, claiming townies seem to be in a strong position, especially when they know that their team will not counterclaim the townie.
They will usually try to pick the right side rather than fighting the claim, scum loves to be on the right side.
They feel it's going to earn them trust if they simply take the claim at face value and move on to other stuff, defending the townie against other people's doubts, expecting to look like they were right.
A lot of Rayn's reasoning for marv being town stems from the fact that he assumes that there can't be two millers.
That is fallacious, and a scumslip, Lazermonkey fell for the same mistake, as I will show you (also notice that Lazermonkey pointed out some of Rayn's mistakes but doesn't pursue him as scumread).
1. Rayn quickly thought post-claim that two millers weren't possible.
On June 30 2013 06:08 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Cool. If nobody counterclaims the next step is that the third party (if here) is going to protect you.
On June 30 2013 06:13 raynpelikoneet wrote:
marv, now that i can be sure that you are town and i do actually have to find scum instead of bullshitting around, let's work together and find all the mafia on D1. Deal?
On June 30 2013 06:19 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I bet that was not 5 minutes into the game when one person has posted before you.
That is really an unnecessary risk that i do not think you would take as scum in case the real miller is present.
(stutters says there can be two millers)
On June 30 2013 06:39 raynpelikoneet wrote:
There is no way there are 2 millers in the game so cut talking about that as a possibility already.
What's scummy about this:
- Rayn mentions the chance of a counterclaim.
- 5 minutes later he's sure marv is town.
- 6 minutes later he says marv would not fakeclaim as scum
- 20 minutes later he says there can't be two millers
Implication:
→ Rayn did not really expect a counterclaim, as seen in point 2, 3 and 4. Only a fraction of players posted at the time so it was not rational to dismiss a counterclaim that quickly.
He explains his reasoning here:
On June 30 2013 07:20 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2013 07:12 Vivax wrote:
It's possible I guess. I don't think it's worth speculating about until another miller claims.
Lazermonkey's vote on WoS gives me a townie feeling. Any differing opinions? Do you agree?Yes? Why?
This is how i see it:
marv claimed before iGrok announced the cop is in fact a parity cop. In case the cop was normal and as there is no GF, it's fair that there is one miller. Two millers make the game insanely hard for a cop, and with two miller claims town might run in circles finding which of the millers is "mafia". As for parity cop, having two millers ease up the game much. If the parity cop is stupid enough to not check marv on N1, they still can check the other miller claim on N2 (as if marv is town he will die on N1) and use that to confirm his earlier and future checks.
If there is no cop there is no point in having millers. One might be okay in the sense that it fucks with the town, but not too much. Two millers and no cop is basically impossible.
marv would not claim miller in either scenario because there is no need to.
So that's why i think marv is town and there is exactly 1 miller.
I agree that Lazer is probably town. His opening post was careless and i don't think he would have done that as scum. His vote on WoS is good as WoS is probably scum. :D
What do you think about Stutters? Mainly his posts about the miller thing. They are really really bad.
Let's dissect this:
1. Rayn says only one miller is possible with standard cop (don't even know why he mentioned this as it's unrelated)
2. Rayn says two millers make the game too easy for parity cop coz he can prime his check on one N2 if the other dies N1 (lolz)
3. Rayn says only one miller is possible with no cop. Also no miller is possible.
And he says: THAT'S WHY MARV IS TOWN (cause two millers are unlikely)
This question arises:
It sticks out that in all of this,
Rayn never considers that town could have no miller.Why does Rayn not consider that town has no miller?
Cause he first gave marv full credit (too quickly, knowing that the claim must be true) and now has to justify it.
Cause he knew that marv's claim was true, and hence had trouble imagining things from a perspective where town could have no miller.
Futhermore:
On June 30 2013 09:41 Lazermonkey wrote:
EBWOP: To expand on that, what is it that makes you think that marv is to bright to fake claim miller in this game despite having done so in another game. The claim was risky in that game, just as the hypothetical fake claim would be in this game. Still you say there cannot be a possibilty that Marv is scum in this game.
On June 30 2013 09:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:
The fact that there is a rolename for each possible miller. If you fakeclaim, you take a 50% chance of 1-1 trade as mafia, which is not good 5min into D1.
There is lot to talk about. Stutters and WoS are scummy. Do you agree? We talk about marv more when he posts more.
Rayn was well aware of the fact that millers have names. And yet he said that marv would not have claimed miller cause a guy with the same name would have gotten one of them lynched. BUT MARV NEVER CLAIMED HIS NAME, and Rayn never asked him for it.
This shows that Rayn had the intention to defend marv, not that he was figuring out his alignment genuinely.
For us, it means that today we should lynch Rayn imo.
I also mentioned that Lazer made the same mistake in not assuming the genuine perspective, here:
On June 30 2013 07:25 Lazermonkey wrote:
Regarding the the possibilties of there being two millers in the setup.
First off, I'm going to make the assumption that there are only three scum in this game. Secondly, looking at the roles in possible for scum you can see that the only one power role in our beloved friend Adolf "the roleblocker." Hitler. Now, assuming there is only 1 Hitler (which I don't think is a very bold assumption) the most powerfull scum team is in theory goon x2 + GF, a relativly weak team. Having two millers vs this team, even without additional blue roles, honestly seems kinda OP as you would either get into a postion with 2 modconfirmed townies D1 or a group of 3 people where you know for sure that one is scum. So, once again assuming (-.-)that the game is fairly balanced I don't think there are two millers.
And the conclusion you should draw from this is that Marvs claim probably means he is town.
Knowing that marv is town, he didn't assume that there could be no miller.
EPT
