| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
I will continue to examine his play myself, and if my view of his play should change my attitude to his wagon will change also. For now I'd like to discuss Spicy and StiMaDDict, as well as Onegu, as potential lynches today. To date the only person who has responded to my points about Spicy was Chromatically. I'd like to hear some other opinions. | ||
|
hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
| ||
|
hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
| ||
|
Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
On June 27 2013 13:33 hzflank wrote: I agree with what you say about him playing defensively. I also got a complete null read from his argument with FirmTofu. Regarding voting I think Spicy is in a similar place to Onegu. I don't really have anything else to say on it. Most of your individual points are valid, but reading it all made me feel apathetic towards Spicy, rather than scream Scum at me. This is exactly where I'm at with Spicy. If I was confident he was scum my vote would be on him rather than StiMaDDict. My case was intended to show why the reasons that other people thought (and I previously thought) Spicy was town are in fact not particularly good reasons for thinking that. Hurricane's reason for thinking that Spicy is certain town (because Hurricane wasn't shot) doesn't even make any sense. I think Spicy is worth at least as much consideration for a lynch today as Onegu. Elaboration of my read (or lack thereof) on Onegu: Sidestepping the two main wagons of the day is a generally scummy thing to do. However, the question you must ask yourself is why is it indicative that this person has a scum mentality? The reason, as far as I'm concerned, is that it means you don't have to commit as hard to your reads (which can be used against you later) and you don't have to pretend to analyse the thread. (There are probably other factors and I've generalised a lot here, but I hope you can see what I'm getting at - it's important to look at WHY a "scummy" thing is actually indicative of a scum mentality, and check in each case whether the "why" applies. If anybody has another fundamental reason why dodging the wagons is scum-indicative, I invite you to share it and talk about whether or not you think it applies.) Onegu indeed sidestepped both my wagon and Xzavier's in the end. However, he has been analysing the thread (see his cases on me, Alakaslam and FirmTofu). I don't think I've agreed with any of his analysis, but that isn't inherently important. The only relevant question is "Did Onegu believe in the cases he raised?" and my gut feeling is yes. Onegu has certainly not been shy about posting his reads and showing his reasoning, no matter how questionable I or anyone else may think his reasons are. Am I certain Onegu's sincere? No. But I find it (slightly) easier to believe than the alternative, based pretty much solely on my gut feeling. I could try to justify this (and I will if somebody asks), but I think it really does just come down to my personal opinion - you will have to make your own judgement, even if I tell you where to look. Every time I can remember that somebody has hardcore tunneled me in a game of Mafia, they have been town. Perhaps I'm wrong, and perhaps you can convince me of that - but I'm getting bad feelings from an Onegu wagon. | ||
|
Onegu
United States9695 Posts
| ||
|
hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
| ||
|
Alakaslam
United States17324 Posts
| ||
|
hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
| ||
|
Onegu
United States9695 Posts
On June 27 2013 14:18 Alakaslam wrote: Hold on, I had a really long work day and I'm really confused by all that has happened. Sad day for town. Chromatically's post will be put up by me soon This doesnt make any sense... You will be makeing a post for Chrmatically? | ||
|
Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
On June 27 2013 14:15 Onegu wrote: I will be filter diving again today. Btw we are so unlucky to lose parity cop night one as he is most likely the most powerful role. And again my apathy isnt a scum tell, I didnt care I posted I didnt care and I didnt hide. I will admit not voteing on a wagon looks bad but the way I did it isnt a scum tell. I wasnt hideing my opinion I was forthcomeing. I am going to look at stim and lonemeow close today. So you're off Alakaslam and Aqua now? | ||
|
Alakaslam
United States17324 Posts
On June 27 2013 10:18 Aquanim wrote: I was going to do this anyway, but I decided I just had to quote these as titles. (Honestly I doubt I'm going to die tonight, but between unknowable scum motivations, overzealous vigilantes and inscrutable Serial Killers one can never quite be sure...) If I die tonight, town should increase their scum-read on "X" and "Y" because of "Reasons" Spicydinosaur. See the section on him below. In case I die tonight, for the record, I believe "Z" and "B" to be very town. Chromatically and, to a lesser extent, Hurricane Sponge. Hurricane has picked up his play a lot since the lynch (which is a little odd) but both of them and I are too much on the same wavelength. In case I die tonight, give "L" some space to play: LoneMeow. I've liked what I've seen of his play so far, but there just hasn't been enough of it. Apparently he's been on vacation, but the fact that he hasn't felt the need to say it ingame, let alone use it as an excuse, is a good sign. @LoneMeow: You mostly weren't here day 1 and you've got some catching up to do in terms of proving your credentials as a townie. I appreciate there are some people <glares at StiMaDDict> who've done even less than you, but don't use that as an excuse. If I live through tonight, I look forward to speaking with you. If I die tonight have a good long think about your scumread on "V": Onegu. See the section on him below. If I die tonight, "κ" and "∅" are still basically policy lynches in my view: Alakaslam and StiMaDDict. Alakaslam's incessant martyring is really making me grind my teeth, but... fundamentally it's just another of those things I wish was scummy. He is posting some arguments and thinking about the thread a little, but is the analysis he's provided something scum could cook up? I still have no idea. StiMaDDict continues to do sweet fanny adams. We may just have to lynch him, or threaten to enough that he bloody well talks to us. If I die tonight I never got around to thoroughly reading " " and " ": FirmTofu and hzflank. I'm feeling townish on both of these two but if I'm wrong on my townreads I think it's probably these ones. On Spicydinosaur + Show Spoiler + The point was made early in the thread that Spicy was playing defensively. I would rather term his play as "reactive". Spicy's reply to this was as follows: On June 24 2013 12:39 Spicydinosaur wrote: I do this in all my games, check out Les Mafiafor a good example. Though i don't see how that is alignment indicative as no one wants to get lynched. I thought maybe I should actually go and read Les Mafia. Oh boy..... In Les Mafia, Spicydinosaur was a Parity Cop. I would characterise his play in the following way:
I strongly suggest that everybody read Les Mafia and get your own feeling for Spicy's play in that game. (Before anyone yells out that meta isn't a valid tool for analysis, Spicy provided this HIMSELF to justify his actions. Obviously, he thinks that it is a valid tool to analyse his play.) His argument with FirmTofu (you know the one) isn't particularly alignment-indicative to me. He is flinging a lot of shit at FirmTofu, but I can't say that he wouldn't do this as town too. This section of his filter could bear further analysis I feel. Spicy's reads so far (shortly summarised) are as follows:
I may have missed some reads but I don't think any of them were significant. In short, none of these reads make me think "town" and they all seem pretty convenient from a scummy perspective. Do I think Spicy's scum for not arguing harder for a switch away from Xzavier onto Hurricane? Not really, the thread sentiment was pretty strong against Xzavier at that point and it would take an awfully strong townie to face up to that. But it certainly isn't a towny indication, either. tl;dr I haven't found much of anything in Spicy's filter which makes me strongly think town, and unlike Onegu I'd expect there to be something if he was town. My gut says scum, but I want to look for more before drawing final conclusions. On Onegu + Show Spoiler + As far as I can tell the case on Onegu boils down to a few main points: 1) His 'apathy' to the day one wagons - generally indicative of scum not wanting to take responsibility. 2) The less-than-persuasive nature of his cases Is this a plausible interpretation of Onegu's actions if he's scum? I think it is. However, it is not the only possible interpretation. 1) Onegu did, and always has had, a scumread on me. I suspect it's mostly a gut read, since the reasons he's raising are not very strong. He was at one point the primary force behind my wagon, I'd say; at least he was arguing his point. However, at a certain point he jumped off my vote and went to Alakaslam instead. If he's scum, he could have convincingly stayed on my wagon for a great deal longer than he did - hell, he could have rode that wagon all the way to a mislynch without looking terminally scummy. He wasn't under a great deal of pressure to move his vote at that point, except from me - I have difficulty seeing the direct scum motivation for this move. Question: After switching vote to Alakaslam, do you think Onegu *could* have switched his vote back to me without looking absolutely awful, whatever his actual alignment? As such, was he actually as apathetic to the lynch as the final place his vote ended up might indicate? Onegu had already taken a fair bit of responsibility for his read on me. Furthermore, do you think Onegu was capable of effectively arguing against the strong prevailing thread sentiment towards the end of the day? I don't. 2) Just because he's wrong, and hasn't made accurate cases, is no guarantee that Onegu is scum. The question you have to ask yourself is "Is Onegu honestly searching the thread and trying to find scum?". Again, for me, this is a definite maybe. I still want to see Onegu play some more to convince myself whether he is sincere in his accusations. Other people in this game are reading filters and making high-level, rational conclusions from their overal understanding of the game, and that's a town indication for me. Scum prefer to nitpick because it's harder for them to be caught out in a lie or inconsistency, and is inherently less work. They're not interested in That being said, just because someone isn't effectively hunting for scum doesn't mean they aren't trying to hunt for scum. I think the most important thing in trying to read Onegu is to assess whether he is honestly and sincerely trying to find scum. tl;dr I think there is a reasonable explanation for Onegu's actions from both a town and a scum perspective. I stopped martyring a while ago because there aren't enough town for town to benefit from an info lynch anymore! I don't seek a martyr now. On your Onegu argument: On June 26 2013 11:54 Alakaslam wrote: StimaDDict, you are attacking Aquanim from a position that is really strange. I'm so scummy it's crazy, yet you attack Aquanim? + Show Spoiler + unless I'm so scummy people feel I'm a dead man posting X_X Your filter is only a page long. I'll admit mine is mostly fluff, but it's still 3 pages. What have you done to aid town? A bandwagon and a retraction on that bandwagon, and this attack on Aquanim. Defense youselfs you, you! You are scumread of the nooob until you do. And while you're at it, make a REAL case that isn't based on the first 12 pages of the thread. That discussion about nn was so useless and nobody was stupid enough to claim so I'm going to find whoever started it, and see if they strike me as scummy in their filter. OH YEAH- you brought it up again. That is a little scummy too, hmm... Of course I'm more scummy than you so whatever, take it or leave it folks. Though the POWA of the FILTA has EMPOWAHD ME!!!! Still, watch for orange folks! + Show Spoiler + oh, uh, and maybe RED. Duh. . .  ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/mOHGjne.jpg) Reason to watch for orange as well as red: On June 26 2013 09:40 Alakaslam wrote: Let us see this diagram again. People will see this and have different takeaways. I had a noobish and asinine take on it, but what take will a savvy scum player have? Scum wants to survive. If you are ignored (as I am being temporarily, or was anyway) you don't get lynched now do you...  WATCH OUT FOR ORANGE. THAT IS RIGHT WHERE SCUM WANTS TO BE! Nonetheless, StimaDDict is still my scum read. | ||
|
Alakaslam
United States17324 Posts
On June 27 2013 14:27 Onegu wrote: This doesnt make any sense... You will be makeing a post for Chrmatically? I'm going to quote chrom after this. Problem is I have to edit it to get it smaller and I need to have something useful to say about it. | ||
|
Alakaslam
United States17324 Posts
| ||
|
Onegu
United States9695 Posts
On June 27 2013 14:27 Hurricane Sponge wrote: So you're off Alakaslam and Aqua now? No I am just looking for more reads. Firm aqua are my first 2 reads, my third read is still on alakaslam but isnt as strong as the first 2 | ||
|
Alakaslam
United States17324 Posts
On June 27 2013 10:01 Chromatically wrote: Sponge and Tofu are almost certain town. DO NOT LYNCH THEM. I highly doubt that anyone will be able to convince me that they're scum. They've been the most active this game, they are open with their reads, they push their reads, they're not trying to blend in, and their posts show a clear protown attitude. The Tofu lying thing bothers me a bit, but I'm willing to overlook it on account of a) the fact that his explanation holds together and b) the sheer amount of TOWN in his filter. I think that these reads should be pretty obvious to anyone who looks through their filters. The mindset that their posts come from is clearly town. Spicy, hz, Aqua, and Alaka (in rough order of decreasing town) are all unlikely scum. I'm almost certainly wrong on at least one of them, but I have no idea who. Spicy in particular might look wierd here, as I was on him for his voting, but his Xzav read looks genuine if you look at his filter. He has several reasons for not voting Xzav, and he sticks to those reasons in the face of aggression from the town. It would have been very possible for scum Spicy to avoid drawing attention here by simply giving in, but he sticks to his read. He even backs down from one of his points when I argue him on it, but still explains why he has the read. That's very town to me + Show Spoiler + On June 26 2013 00:38 Spicydinosaur wrote: Fair point the on WIFOM. For me it just comes down to the fact that i dont see this as a scum xzavier given his last game play and self reflection afterwards with his bad reads. I just don't buy a scum xzavier not having some type of read or questions about cases out by the time of the vote. The rest of his filter is townie, as I've said before. He has active conversations with the thread, his reads change in genuine ways, and he doesn't really look to be blending in. In particular, the shitfight with Tofu isn't something that scum would want to get into. It puts the spotlight on Spicy, but he kept up with his logic the whole time and didn't resort to emotional attacks or backing down and sulking away. hz has been making some wierd and nonsensical arguments, but he's active in the thread and feels genuine and townie (in addition to what I've said in the past). Alaka has been posting a lot of nonsense. This gives me town feels because he is not being careful AT ALL. He's done the opposite of blending in, he's drawn so much attention to himself that I can't believe a scum would willingly do. He's been asking for people to vote him off, which is pretty risky to do as scum because it's so frowned upon. All of this makes me really think that he is just town that has an extremely odd way of playing the game. The reason that he's so low on this list is that it's possible that he's actually SCUM with a really wierd way of playing the game. Stim and Meow (in order of decreasing town) are likely scum. I was thinking that Meow was town day 1, but a reread of him makes this less likely for a few reasons. First, he's pretty much the definition of "blending in". He posts the bare minimum so that he's not noticed, and it's been working very well. Compared to Stim, Meow has been virtually unnoticed (partially my fault, I know). His reads completely echo town sentiment. What I saw as "looking for scum" earlier really is just him asking some random questions in one post and never following up on them. He's also been completely absent post-lynch and for this whole night phase. I'll continue on this in a separate post. Onegu is probably scum. I (and Tofu) have already said why. This post jumped in importance by leaps and bounds after that flip. I do have a weird way of playing the game: losing it + Show Spoiler + both the game and my head Notice "I was able to refrain from posting for a while though. That is an improvement in calming down." (read spoiler) + Show Spoiler + No it's not, I had work all day. But what I DID learn from that is that we aren't as vicious against lurkers as I thought, I can collect my thoughts before posting and thereby be better town. Should have done this a long time ago. Read that spoiler unless you're skimming. It is important. My read on this? I have suspicions toward Onegu, especially as Chrom's strongest scum read, but there are things about him I stated in my defense of him to FirmTofu as well as one other thing I won't waste the time and energy elaborating on. It would just be fluff. And also: FirmTofu fulfilled my requirement to get me to vote Onegu. I could do it now. But my actual original self made scumread that I'm not very proud of but that I'll stand by is StimaDDict. As the other policy lynch I would say vote him, but we don't have the manpower for policy lynches anymore! SO- Let's go, make cases, PROVE OUR TOWNIE INNOCENCE (I think we have neglected that some of us ) and MOST importantly SCUMHUNT WITH PRECISION! I'll work on StimaDDict, I figure I have made a case I had better make it stronger. | ||
|
Alakaslam
United States17324 Posts
| ||
|
geript
10024 Posts
| ||
|
Alakaslam
United States17324 Posts
StimaDDict. Have you given up or what? Has anything changed about your opinion on Aquanim? | ||
|
Alakaslam
United States17324 Posts
For refrence, 15 is 23 my time. So if you look at my filter you'll see I have had a crazy sleep schedule, which may have contributed to my uselessness and edginess. | ||
|
Onegu
United States9695 Posts
On June 27 2013 14:51 Alakaslam wrote: This post jumped in importance by leaps and bounds after that flip. I do have a weird way of playing the game: losing it + Show Spoiler + both the game and my head Notice "I was able to refrain from posting for a while though. That is an improvement in calming down." (read spoiler) + Show Spoiler + No it's not, I had work all day. But what I DID learn from that is that we aren't as vicious against lurkers as I thought, I can collect my thoughts before posting and thereby be better town. Should have done this a long time ago. Read that spoiler unless you're skimming. It is important. My read on this? I have suspicions toward Onegu, especially as Chrom's strongest scum read, but there are things about him I stated in my defense of him to FirmTofu as well as one other thing I won't waste the time and energy elaborating on. It would just be fluff. And also: FirmTofu fulfilled my requirement to get me to vote Onegu. I could do it now. But my actual original self made scumread that I'm not very proud of but that I'll stand by is StimaDDict. As the other policy lynch I would say vote him, but we don't have the manpower for policy lynches anymore! SO- Let's go, make cases, PROVE OUR TOWNIE INNOCENCE (I think we have neglected that some of us ) and MOST importantly SCUMHUNT WITH PRECISION! I'll work on StimaDDict, I figure I have made a case I had better make it stronger. How has he fulfilled the requirememt his only "scum tell" on me is my apathy toward who was killed, but this isnt a scum tell, and when you look at motiveation for doing so, there is zero reason for a scum to announce it. I could have not said anything after putting my vote on Alakaslam and let that ride out, or put my vote back on aqua or onto xzavier, none of these things bring attention to myself. | ||
| ||
StarCraft 2 StarCraft: Brood War Dota 2 League of Legends Counter-Strike Super Smash Bros Heroes of the Storm Other Games |
|
AI Arena 2025 Tournament
Replay Cast
Clem vs Zoun
Wardi Open
Monday Night Weeklies
PiGosaur Monday
Replay Cast
SOOP
SKillous vs Spirit
Tenacious Turtle Tussle
The PondCast
Replay Cast
[ Show More ] |
|
|
EPT
