I see what you're saying about the rest of the situation (particularly why Onegu had to claim as scum too), but personally I think a scum Alakaslam would almost have had no choice other than to counterclaim at that point...
If you look at the playerlist at that point:
+ Show Spoiler +
FirmTofu
Hurricane Sponge
hzflank
Aquanim
Onegu
Alakaslam
Spicydinosaur
LoneMeow
StiMaDDict
The green indicates the people who I think scum could not reasonably count on mislynching (if Alakaslam was scum). If Onegu goes uncounterclaimed he's almost certain not to be lynched, and after that there aren't enough mislynches in the town for scum to win. If they secure an Onegu mislynch, even if Alakaslam is lynched afterwards, they only need to make sure the last null-zone townie is lynched before both of them - a reasonable proposition.
You said that scum can't trade 1 for 1 because the numbers aren't in their favour, but if you look at the math in this way:
- Scum need two mislynches to win
- Town need three scum lynches to win
a 1 for 1 trade might actually benefit scum.
Also, momentum was building for an Alakaslam lynch prior to his claim - without that claim, I think we'd have either lynched him or (possible) policy-lynched StiM. Trading his likely lynch for a chance of a lynch into a town PR would have been worthwhile IMO.
The whole thing about not understanding the ramifications of his claim should have been a tell but I've always been mistrustful of such tells, even though they generally turn out to be correct :/
This is pretty much a repeat of the argument I made at the time. Obviously it turned out not to be correct, but I think it offers a reasonable justification for why a scum Alakaslam would have "counterclaimed" Onegu. Is there some flaw with this argument I've missed?
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As you pointed out, hes counterclaiming to get a chance at a 1-1 trade with a town powerrole. You cant ever be sure who the town is going to side with in these situations, even if you have an answer for every question and seem to be making sense, sometimes, someone says the right thing at the right time and you end up dead first anyway. The town lynches him first, confirms Onegu as town, things start looking very dire - if not a complete throw of the game. I'd suspect scum might be trying to deflect onto someone else instead of stepping in to claim here - Stim, the afk, for example.
I don't think hurricane would have been above lynching if Alakaslam flipped scum. He would have to explain what he was doing visiting a scum player, making it equal parts likely that he is the scum Framer himself or NN. Considering he opened the game with a plan asking the NN to claim, yet never did himself, if he claimed NN on D2 when everything went sideways, id want to lynch him on the spot.
The biggest problem with Onegu's story was simply: 'what the hell was he doing by watching someone like Alakaslam'. Watcher is a defensive role, it goes on your town reads. I know it was thrown around this game that he might have been hunting for the framer, but that wasn't even confirmed to be in the game. You know there are scum in the game, watch your biggest town read so that when he dies, you have caught the scum that delivers the KP. Fundamentally this is where the story fell down and why he should have been lynched first. When Onegu claimed he said 'I saw my biggest town read visit Alakaslam', why in all-good-christ would you out your biggest town read as also being a blue if you were town. Alakaslam tracking Onegu makes sense considering thread sentiment at the time. You cant always count on someone to use their powers correctly, but when claims come forward with such sub-optimal usage, be very wary.
Yes, anything is possible, but you need to look at what is probable. That's what this game is about, nothing is certain except what comes from your hosts.
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EPT
