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On April 28 2013 13:12 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On April 28 2013 13:08 raynpelikoneet wrote:So you are taking WoS at face value now because you think it's impossible that he soft-claimed miller as mafia. You are also going to ignore all the suspicious things he has done (as you fucking thought he should be shot earlier, that means you were suspicious of him). I'm going to yell so much at everyone of you if WoS is mafia and is not shot tonight. Based purely on the fact that this post here is 100% right and at least Ace should know it too, and WoS should have read it if he is in fact town miller: On April 23 2013 05:30 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
What reason does town have to make to ever claim miller? Seriously, tell me. All it does is clusterfuck a thread and leaves open ground for mafia to claim as well and thus be cleared as town as he claimed miller. Assume all miller claims are bullshit and kill. If you get red checked you get killed. Its pretty simple. You lynch people who are likely mafia. Town has no reason to ever claim miller EVEN IF THEY KNOW THEY ARE ONE. As all it does is create chaos. IE only mafia have a benefit to claim it thus should be lynched. I did read it. And he's mostly right. And I've already mentioned it's because I'd rather force a wasted vig shot than a wasted DT check and wasted lynch. Pretty decent reasons to me. Whether or not YOU think this was going to happen or not is irrelevant. It's what I thought was going to happen and so I acted. Simple.
Again, i can't see where you assume you are gonna get DT checked when people wanted you shot.
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And why do you assume you can't convince the town by your play rather than claiming, especially as you agree with BC's post.
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my laptop keyboard is broken thats why I was typing like that.
@rayn: earlier I said self aware millers should claim with known role counts. but seeing people call him to be shot WoS claims. So I was saying go back to the beginning of the game and see if he said anything regarding Millers. He was clearly interested in Bill Murray's situation. If he is Scum he is running a long con, and sticking with it nicely. Being as I view WoS as kind of incapable of making such a play - based on my run in with him in Ego mafia and him not understanding something I deem basic - I doubt he's doing it. If he is he has experienced Scum on his team, and with Clarity and tube flipping I dont know how much we can trust that route. He might still be scum, but I dont think his claim puts him that way. If enough people want him shot - list those players and their reasons. How many of them are people you trust to be Town and have legit reasons?
Look at yamato and VE. VE looks bad when clarity flips because of his resistance. re-read that interaction! yamato has been promising cases on BC and VE for over 3 days now and has never delivered. Both are paranoid of me being Scum which is absolutely dumb since I would have just killed my Scum vigi and drop our factional KP by 2.
On April 28 2013 13:07 Sharrant wrote:
Ace, what are you feeling on Hopeless? He's been on the wrong side of both lynches so far in the worst way possible. Unlucky town, or mafia?
Very scummy looking or just dumb. Like VE seems super paranoid about me being Scum even with all that just went down to secure clarity's lynch. Not even pretending to read the thread. His entire reasoning rests on "some Vets must be scum" which is a ridiculous line of thinking, and a pretty poor place to start off of considering we have voting lists and 2 Scum flips.
Now I wont have access to this computer all the time so I'll be back on my laptop playing charades and shit with you guys.
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to be extra thorough - while it is still possible WoS is scum that miller claim doesn't warrant a vigi shot. It does nothing to free up extra information, as if WoS flips Miller it is a wasted shot. For now you should give him the benefit of the doubt. Look at other people on the Oats +Shiapi wagon clash cases. yamato and VE are both there. So is Palmar, hopeless1nder, and a few others. WoS is there too but as said I think he gets a temporary pass. Limit that pool via what you know by reading objectively first, then read them from both scum and town p.o.v. Do it for all of them! WoS doesn't come close to being the top vigi target when you do this.
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11589 Posts
Ace, if you're town, you seriously need your head examined if you're just going to throw shit at me the whole game while never substantiating your claims.
I'm very undecided on how I should view your continued lack of effort in this department, because you seem more than willing to talk about ANYTHING but analysis of my alignment, which I have repeatedly asked for from you and you have repeatedly ignored.
I literally can't get past this roadblock in my mind, so you need to step it up.
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On April 28 2013 13:13 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On April 28 2013 13:12 WaveofShadow wrote:On April 28 2013 13:08 raynpelikoneet wrote:So you are taking WoS at face value now because you think it's impossible that he soft-claimed miller as mafia. You are also going to ignore all the suspicious things he has done (as you fucking thought he should be shot earlier, that means you were suspicious of him). I'm going to yell so much at everyone of you if WoS is mafia and is not shot tonight. Based purely on the fact that this post here is 100% right and at least Ace should know it too, and WoS should have read it if he is in fact town miller: On April 23 2013 05:30 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
What reason does town have to make to ever claim miller? Seriously, tell me. All it does is clusterfuck a thread and leaves open ground for mafia to claim as well and thus be cleared as town as he claimed miller. Assume all miller claims are bullshit and kill. If you get red checked you get killed. Its pretty simple. You lynch people who are likely mafia. Town has no reason to ever claim miller EVEN IF THEY KNOW THEY ARE ONE. As all it does is create chaos. IE only mafia have a benefit to claim it thus should be lynched. I did read it. And he's mostly right. And I've already mentioned it's because I'd rather force a wasted vig shot than a wasted DT check and wasted lynch. Pretty decent reasons to me. Whether or not YOU think this was going to happen or not is irrelevant. It's what I thought was going to happen and so I acted. Simple. Again, i can't see where you assume you are gonna get DT checked when people wanted you shot.
Because at that point there weren't that many people who wanted me shot. I wasn't worried about getting shot at that point, I was more worried about being lynched, and a miller claim during the day would have ensured that.
Now I'm done defending my actions to you Rayn, continue believing what you're going to believe.
BC:
Seems overall fairly town to me, though I don't get the evolution of his scumreads. Well, I get them in that they constantly follow town sentiment more or less, but I don't get where most of them go.
Scumread on yamato just fizzles out, scumread on CC spoken of once and gone, scumread of OO based on one post and gone,
On D2 he pushes ShiaoPi like crazy and then before he disappears for the day with vote still on ShiaoPi, posts this:
On April 27 2013 07:15 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2013 07:12 yamato77 wrote:On April 27 2013 07:10 VisceraEyes wrote:On April 27 2013 07:08 yamato77 wrote:On April 27 2013 07:08 WaveofShadow wrote:
You guys are heading into preflip assumption territory and its not good. Yeah, they're being bad. Ignore it. You know you're accusing BC of shitting all over town atmosphere yamato. JUST SAYIN. I'm no longer accusing BC of anything. I'm just saying, this voting analysis of wagons is inconclusive at best. Mafia vote for mafia, town vote for town, and his list of "confirmed" players may not even be accurate, lol. I honestly don't like confirming people via voting wagons unless we have a list check dt. I was answering the question asked (although to ace) because it was something that I wanted a potential viewing of how I see it out there in case he answers differently. I would say the most damning thing against shiaopi at this point in time is his angry post calling out tube. People who would be most angry specifically at tube is a mafia imo although thats an insane stretch and even i realize that
He's one of those people who are on both the Shiao and oats wagons at the time that people were starting to consider scummy, but then he switches to Clarity at the end. I'm not sure what to make of this in the end but what I would like is an explanation of BC's reads evolution because he just flies back and forth, dropping and picking up pressure with no way (for me at least) to understand where it went. I can't think BC is scum based on his play...bussing Clarity that early makes no sense to me but help me out here maybe. Like....BC do you still think yamato is scum? Shiao?
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On April 28 2013 13:33 Ace wrote:
to be extra thorough - while it is still possible WoS is scum that miller claim doesn't warrant a vigi shot. It does nothing to free up extra information, as if WoS flips Miller it is a wasted shot. For now you should give him the benefit of the doubt. Look at other people on the Oats +Shiapi wagon clash cases. yamato and VE are both there. So is Palmar, hopeless1nder, and a few others. WoS is there too but as said I think he gets a temporary pass. Limit that pool via what you know by reading objectively first, then read them from both scum and town p.o.v. Do it for all of them! WoS doesn't come close to being the top vigi target when you do this.
CheeseCake, Palmar, Sharrant (him not convinced yet though):
On April 28 2013 05:56 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
Shoot waveofshadow 100%
On April 28 2013 05:57 Palmar wrote:listen to this man, he speaketh truth
On April 28 2013 05:57 Sharrant wrote:Convince me on this one, I have some suspicions, let's figure out if they're the same.
+ I have said this on N1 and my read has never dropped:
On April 25 2013 03:07 raynpelikoneet wrote:
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WaveofShadow - what me + TRN said earlier today
GiygaS - Did weird stuff on D1, especially his answers to me were not pleasing
Clarity_nl - What has been brought up today
ShiaoPi - What Vivax said
+ TRN
So that makes CC/Palmar/Me/TRN/somewhat Sharrant. I do not think any of those people are mafia.
WoS claimed right after CC-Palmar-Sharrant posted. Overly defensive in the first place, now he says he wanted to avoid a DT check and mislynch on him. Bullshit i say, noone even mentions him being a good check.
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On April 28 2013 13:33 yamato77 wrote:
Ace, if you're town, you seriously need your head examined if you're just going to throw shit at me the whole game while never substantiating your claims.
I'm very undecided on how I should view your continued lack of effort in this department, because you seem more than willing to talk about ANYTHING but analysis of my alignment, which I have repeatedly asked for from you and you have repeatedly ignored.
I literally can't get past this roadblock in my mind, so you need to step it up.
are you dumb?
You've promised analysis several times and have not delivered - check
appeared on voting wagons where we believe scum to be - check
posted a poor post in defense of the clarity lynch trying to derail the bandwagon at the last minute and accuse shiaopi - check
+ Show Spoiler +On April 27 2013 17:14 yamato77 wrote:So I kind of re-skimmed the thread and looked over what people have said, finally, and this post by Shiao is quite bad: Show nested quote +On April 27 2013 02:35 ShiaoPi wrote:
Well, that took a lot of time to read.
Not so sure about whom to lynch now with tube getting modkilled (lol btw!). I also have very limited time during the entire weekend, which is obviously gimping me by quite a bit as I while only be able to drop by shortly during the evening/late night before I sleep.
I am currently torn between clarity and VE.
Going with VE for now because I think it is a good idea to sheep Palmar. Go figure.
##vote: VE
If there are no direct questions to me in the next couple of minutes I'll be off to bed until I can come back on tomorrow at about the same time as right now. Much has been said about this entrance, but it was horrible, for a number of reasons. While it can be reasonably assumed that he is actually busy, the amount of this post used to excuse his own inactivity is mind-blowing. He has no original thought about the game, and doesn't seem to care about giving us any valid reasons for voting for VE outside of Palmar's lackluster efforts in pushing for the lynch. And then there's the bolded, his "reaction" to the tube modkill, that sets something off in my head. It seems unnatural and forced to go "(lol btw!)" in the middle of this post. I'd be happy with lynching him, if we feel we need to consolidate on a lynch. I've advocated playing a waiting game, but I saw it mentioned that we've only really talked about lynching between him/Clarity today, and I agree, so perhaps it is best if we move on. Another thing I thought to look at was the WHOLE votecount from day 1, not just the Oats wagon: Show nested quote +On April 23 2013 13:25 iamperfection wrote:~~~ Vote Count! ~~~
Oatsmaster: Palmar, kushm4sta, GiygaS, Vivax, raynpelikoneet, kushm4sta, Ace, WaveofShadow,yamato77,VisceraEyes,Palmar,getmoript, Mr. CC (11)
Hopeless1der: Vivax (0)
Bill Murray: raynpelikoneet, VisceraEyes (0)
Getmoript: Mr. Cheesecake, kushm4sta,WaveofShadow (0)
TheRavensName: Sharrant (0)
Raynpelikoneet: Sharrant, Sylencia, Hopeless1der, ObviousOne(3)
Ace: Yamato, Bill Murray (0)
Sharrant: raynpelikoneetClarity_nl (1)
Yamato: kushm4sta, BloodyCobbler, Ace, Grush57, raynpelikoneet, VisceraEyes, ObviousOne, getmoript, Bill Murray, TheRavensName,Oatsmaster (4)
VisceraEyes: Palmar, Yamato (0)
GiygaS: Oatsmaster (0)
Drazek: Bill Murray (1)
Remember, this Day ends when a majority is reached. As soon as a majority is reached, please stop posting until the Night Post has been posted. Only votes in the voting thread will be counted! The voting thread can be found here: (link)
With 25 alive it takes 13 votes to lynch. There are some changes to this: Show nested quote +On April 23 2013 21:39 Hopeless1der wrote:
##Unvote: raynpelikoneet
##Vote: Oatsmaster So the votecount itself is somewhat difficult to analyse, seeing as most people were either on me or Oats, but the people on Rayn do seem out of place, and it is even more weird that two of them managed to get themselves on to Oats before his lynch; Sylencia and Hopeless. Also note that Shiao's only vote of the whole day was the hammer on Oats. And people want to say that it isn't scummy? Yeah, no. But as before, there were multiple vote changes inbetween, and they are worth looking into. To begin why did Sylencia decide to change to Oats? Show nested quote +On April 23 2013 23:58 Sylencia wrote:Oats is the vote for me. Case from Vivax + aftermath between yamato vs Oats has convinced me more to taking down Oats. The thing that was holding me back most was that my primary scum suspect (rayn) was on Oats fairly early on. However: On April 23 2013 22:36 Vivax wrote:
Whatever, you're at L-1, dead. If you're town you shouldn't jumping around hysterically, but tell us who we should look at after your flip.
TRN, if you want to have yamato lynched instead of Oats, it's not my job to find arguments for you. I'd want to have Oats lynched first. Given that Oats never actually provided anything for us in terms of reads afterwards and posted crap about being green and telling people to push others. If he has nothing to say either: a) He's playing as the bad townie b) He's withholding that info from us to stop us from gaining more than we need from the lynch. Either case is bad for town, so that's why I'm willing to go down on Oats. ##Unvote
##Vote Oats Seems more of a case for voting for "bad town" than scum, which seems like a slip of a scum mindset, in my opinion. Why? Because it is something I run into as scum, how to formulate a read on a town player and call them scum so I can vote for them. Most of the time, it is "bad town" that get mislynched, so the difference becomes vague. Justifying a vote by saying that someone is "bad for town" is an easy scum out, because town players can and will be anti-town on many occasions. Yet this is Sylencia's mindset, and how he justifies the vote on Oats. Just from this voting analysis, I feel he might be mafia. I have yet to analyse his filter in totality, but given this, I will definitely give it a look. Show nested quote +On April 23 2013 21:39 Hopeless1der wrote:
Vivax where did your unofficial count come from it looks wonky...
in any case, this should be L-1 on Oats
##Unvote: raynpelikoneet
##Vote: Oatsmaster Hopeless. + Show Spoiler +Anyway, this is Wonder's SECOND EVER mention of Oatsmaster, and the first one where he gives any inclination of thinking him mafia. AMAZING! HOW DID HE REACH THIS SECRET CONCLUSION?!?!?! Show nested quote +On April 23 2013 22:37 Hopeless1der wrote:On April 23 2013 21:42 Oatsmaster wrote:On April 23 2013 21:22 Vivax wrote:
Me and ace are basically the only ones asking people to switch to Oats, others say "can do", others say it looks like a policy, or try to push other cases.
If this was a wagon on a townie, scum could be pushing it easily at this point.
Why didn't any of this happen yet? There's resistance here. Again, worst reasoning ever. Cause im town. Yeah. Hopeless. Why am I scum? I think you're too trolly in the face of dieing to be town. I'm not even certain you have a scum read on anyone at all. You've provided next to nothing. A shitty list post where your strongest scum read is "well someone has to be scum, why not Ace". gtfo. Wow. I'm not saying this is totally regurgitation of other people's arguments, but it is. This also come AFTER his vote, where he's fully aware that he's putting Oats one vote away from lynch. And then guess what happens... I unvote (temporarily delaying the lynch), Sylencia manages to vote AND: The hammer! This all happens within the span of ~2 hours, mind you, when I'm screaming at the thread not to lynch Oats. Say what you want about me, but all three of these votes are particularly HORRID, and all of them are either switches off Rayn (a wagon that seems inherently scummy, in that people that switched off it didn't seem to change their read on him much) or the player's first vote of the game. Is there a chance they are town? Sure. I'd probably say Sylencia has the most chance to be town, since when compared to the other two, his vote looks the MOST explained, despite the fishy nature of the post. The other two, however, give very little indication that they think Oats is mafia before they vote, and the hammer in particular looks like TEXTBOOK MAFIA trying to find a good reason to just lynch a town. Notably, I did something JUST like this day 1 of British Empire 1 (also instant majority), where I fabricated suspicion of a town-created wagon on a town player and managed to hammer him for the lynch. Only this is even worse, and more obvious, because they didn't even manage to look like they thought about it before obviously putting Oats in danger of, and actually being lynch. That's VCA done right, bros. And from it, I find the willingness to lynch the fuck out of Shiapi, because this is bullshit. No matter how much post-hoc justification he gives, there is only mafia motivation to be seen in what he has done.
You clowned around all of day 1, almost got lynched and have shown no effort to step up. You've promised analysis on VE and BC and have failed to deliver. Telling the thread to just give you some more time. Yet you show up to blast ShiaoPi and not do what you promised. You aren't even trying to scumhunt - just throwing accusations at big name players. This apathy and lack of effort, that you yourself promised, shows you aren't focused. If you thought any of us you named were people you wanted lynched you would have made a case by now on us - not a case on ShiaoPi and ignoring clarity completely. GG scum.
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On April 28 2013 13:28 Ace wrote:my laptop keyboard is broken thats why I was typing like that. @rayn: earlier I said self aware millers should claim with known role counts. but seeing people call him to be shot WoS claims. So I was saying go back to the beginning of the game and see if he said anything regarding Millers. He was clearly interested in Bill Murray's situation. If he is Scum he is running a long con, and sticking with it nicely. Being as I view WoS as kind of incapable of making such a play - based on my run in with him in Ego mafia and him not understanding something I deem basic - I doubt he's doing it. If he is he has experienced Scum on his team, and with Clarity and tube flipping I dont know how much we can trust that route. He might still be scum, but I dont think his claim puts him that way. If enough people want him shot - list those players and their reasons. How many of them are people you trust to be Town and have legit reasons? Look at yamato and VE. VE looks bad when clarity flips because of his resistance. re-read that interaction! yamato has been promising cases on BC and VE for over 3 days now and has never delivered. Both are paranoid of me being Scum which is absolutely dumb since I would have just killed my Scum vigi and drop our factional KP by 2. Show nested quote +On April 28 2013 13:07 Sharrant wrote:
Ace, what are you feeling on Hopeless? He's been on the wrong side of both lynches so far in the worst way possible. Unlucky town, or mafia? Very scummy looking or just dumb. Like VE seems super paranoid about me being Scum even with all that just went down to secure clarity's lynch. Not even pretending to read the thread. His entire reasoning rests on "some Vets must be scum" which is a ridiculous line of thinking, and a pretty poor place to start off of considering we have voting lists and 2 Scum flips. Now I wont have access to this computer all the time so I'll be back on my laptop playing charades and shit with you guys.
This post needs more Dwayne Johnson gifs IMO.
Do you agree that Palmar could be mafia based on his play by proxy? Would he step back and let town tear itself apart if he's the only veteran who is mafia? So far he's been sticking with the play-style for the most part (a lazy style IMO).
Ignore the spoiler if you hate pre-flip association thoughts
+ Show Spoiler [speculation/pre-flip association] +IMO I don't see him doing that if ACE BC BM VE DOCH are all town, BUT! it's possible that mafia has some power roles and DOCH/stutters is mafia as well (someone who when he's around is hyper-active early game, or at least that's the idea I get from 1-the podcast where he talked by himself, the beta cast and 2-he burns out quickly when he's scum), like we just learned with today's flip they had a vigilante in Clarity, and role #s are not known, they could have more. This needs a flip to have any credence so I guess i'll shut up about it for now.
But the question again so it's clear, does it make sense that Palmar would play by proxy solo if he's the only scum vet in such a potentially strong town?
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On April 28 2013 13:42 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On April 28 2013 13:33 Ace wrote:
to be extra thorough - while it is still possible WoS is scum that miller claim doesn't warrant a vigi shot. It does nothing to free up extra information, as if WoS flips Miller it is a wasted shot. For now you should give him the benefit of the doubt. Look at other people on the Oats +Shiapi wagon clash cases. yamato and VE are both there. So is Palmar, hopeless1nder, and a few others. WoS is there too but as said I think he gets a temporary pass. Limit that pool via what you know by reading objectively first, then read them from both scum and town p.o.v. Do it for all of them! WoS doesn't come close to being the top vigi target when you do this. CheeseCake, Palmar, Sharrant (him not convinced yet though): Show nested quote +On April 28 2013 05:57 Palmar wrote:On April 28 2013 05:56 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
Shoot waveofshadow 100% listen to this man, he speaketh truth Show nested quote +On April 28 2013 05:57 Sharrant wrote:On April 28 2013 05:56 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
Shoot waveofshadow 100% Convince me on this one, I have some suspicions, let's figure out if they're the same. + I have said this on N1 and my read has never dropped: Show nested quote +On April 25 2013 03:07 raynpelikoneet wrote:
...
WaveofShadow - what me + TRN said earlier today
GiygaS - Did weird stuff on D1, especially his answers to me were not pleasing
Clarity_nl - What has been brought up today
ShiaoPi - What Vivax said
+ TRN So that makes CC/Palmar/Me/TRN/somewhat Sharrant. I do not think any of those people are mafia. WoS claimed right after CC-Palmar-Sharrant posted. Overly defensive in the first place, now he says he wanted to avoid a DT check and mislynch on him. Bullshit i say, noone even mentions him being a good check.
none of them gave reasons to shoot him rayne. Sharrant asks for convincing. Palmar sheeps Mr.CC, and both of them are on the lists with WoS. he said he'd want to avoid a DT check - thats somewhat fishy at first glance, but when he claims Miller it makes sense. It's purely survival mode after being called out - and he did say he wouldn't mind being shot. I dont think Scum would call that bluff right now.
I think we should wait for Palmar and Mr.CC to give legit reasoning for wanting WoS shot. I think he has a possible Town motivation here, stronger than a scum one. He isn't the best vigilante shot tonight. The guys pining for him to be are more suspect.
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On April 28 2013 13:45 ObviousOne wrote:Show nested quote +On April 28 2013 13:28 Ace wrote:my laptop keyboard is broken thats why I was typing like that. @rayn: earlier I said self aware millers should claim with known role counts. but seeing people call him to be shot WoS claims. So I was saying go back to the beginning of the game and see if he said anything regarding Millers. He was clearly interested in Bill Murray's situation. If he is Scum he is running a long con, and sticking with it nicely. Being as I view WoS as kind of incapable of making such a play - based on my run in with him in Ego mafia and him not understanding something I deem basic - I doubt he's doing it. If he is he has experienced Scum on his team, and with Clarity and tube flipping I dont know how much we can trust that route. He might still be scum, but I dont think his claim puts him that way. If enough people want him shot - list those players and their reasons. How many of them are people you trust to be Town and have legit reasons? Look at yamato and VE. VE looks bad when clarity flips because of his resistance. re-read that interaction! yamato has been promising cases on BC and VE for over 3 days now and has never delivered. Both are paranoid of me being Scum which is absolutely dumb since I would have just killed my Scum vigi and drop our factional KP by 2. On April 28 2013 13:07 Sharrant wrote:
Ace, what are you feeling on Hopeless? He's been on the wrong side of both lynches so far in the worst way possible. Unlucky town, or mafia? Very scummy looking or just dumb. Like VE seems super paranoid about me being Scum even with all that just went down to secure clarity's lynch. Not even pretending to read the thread. His entire reasoning rests on "some Vets must be scum" which is a ridiculous line of thinking, and a pretty poor place to start off of considering we have voting lists and 2 Scum flips. Now I wont have access to this computer all the time so I'll be back on my laptop playing charades and shit with you guys. This post needs more Dwayne Johnson gifs IMO. Do you agree that Palmar could be mafia based on his play by proxy? Would he step back and let town tear itself apart if he's the only veteran who is mafia? So far he's been sticking with the play-style for the most part (a lazy style IMO). Ignore the spoiler if you hate pre-flip association thoughts + Show Spoiler [speculation/pre-flip association] +IMO I don't see him doing that if ACE BC BM VE DOCH are all town, BUT! it's possible that mafia has some power roles and DOCH/stutters is mafia as well (someone who when he's around is hyper-active early game, or at least that's the idea I get from 1-the podcast where he talked by himself, the beta cast and 2-he burns out quickly when he's scum), like we just learned with today's flip they had a vigilante in Clarity, and role #s are not known, they could have more. This needs a flip to have any credence so I guess i'll shut up about it for now. But the question again so it's clear, does it make sense that Palmar would play by proxy solo if he's the only scum vet in such a potentially strong town?
I could see him doing that. I dont view his laziness, by itself, as a scum tell for him. But not commenting on anything and just sheeping votes is not a good look. He's evaded scrutiny thus far because his name is Palmar. Likewise so has BC. It could be very possible they are both Town and like the way the game is going, seeing no reason to jump in and so too much just preferring to ride the wave. But I'm a little skeptical on that when it comes to BC because he voted for ShiaoPI even after I illustrated why he could be Town. I'd expect him of all people to absorb that one and get it instantly.
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On April 28 2013 13:45 ObviousOne wrote:Show nested quote +On April 28 2013 13:28 Ace wrote:my laptop keyboard is broken thats why I was typing like that. @rayn: earlier I said self aware millers should claim with known role counts. but seeing people call him to be shot WoS claims. So I was saying go back to the beginning of the game and see if he said anything regarding Millers. He was clearly interested in Bill Murray's situation. If he is Scum he is running a long con, and sticking with it nicely. Being as I view WoS as kind of incapable of making such a play - based on my run in with him in Ego mafia and him not understanding something I deem basic - I doubt he's doing it. If he is he has experienced Scum on his team, and with Clarity and tube flipping I dont know how much we can trust that route. He might still be scum, but I dont think his claim puts him that way. If enough people want him shot - list those players and their reasons. How many of them are people you trust to be Town and have legit reasons? Look at yamato and VE. VE looks bad when clarity flips because of his resistance. re-read that interaction! yamato has been promising cases on BC and VE for over 3 days now and has never delivered. Both are paranoid of me being Scum which is absolutely dumb since I would have just killed my Scum vigi and drop our factional KP by 2. On April 28 2013 13:07 Sharrant wrote:
Ace, what are you feeling on Hopeless? He's been on the wrong side of both lynches so far in the worst way possible. Unlucky town, or mafia? Very scummy looking or just dumb. Like VE seems super paranoid about me being Scum even with all that just went down to secure clarity's lynch. Not even pretending to read the thread. His entire reasoning rests on "some Vets must be scum" which is a ridiculous line of thinking, and a pretty poor place to start off of considering we have voting lists and 2 Scum flips. Now I wont have access to this computer all the time so I'll be back on my laptop playing charades and shit with you guys. This post needs more Dwayne Johnson gifs IMO. Do you agree that Palmar could be mafia based on his play by proxy? Would he step back and let town tear itself apart if he's the only veteran who is mafia? So far he's been sticking with the play-style for the most part (a lazy style IMO). Ignore the spoiler if you hate pre-flip association thoughts + Show Spoiler [speculation/pre-flip association] +IMO I don't see him doing that if ACE BC BM VE DOCH are all town, BUT! it's possible that mafia has some power roles and DOCH/stutters is mafia as well (someone who when he's around is hyper-active early game, or at least that's the idea I get from 1-the podcast where he talked by himself, the beta cast and 2-he burns out quickly when he's scum), like we just learned with today's flip they had a vigilante in Clarity, and role #s are not known, they could have more. This needs a flip to have any credence so I guess i'll shut up about it for now. But the question again so it's clear, does it make sense that Palmar would play by proxy solo if he's the only scum vet in such a potentially strong town?
I personally think that the scumteam is likely to be weak/lurky this game as I mentioned earlier. This is only stengthened by the fact that both tube and Clarity flipped red. I don't see how Clarity could have been allowed by a strong scumteam to post what he did so that many people picked up on it almost immediately and what's more, undoubtedly forced at least one of them to bus him (there's no way all of the scum were on the Shiao wagon or all spread the voting out considering how long it was only between Shiao and Clarity. Interesting to see Shiao not voting for Clarity btw. Also need to see why kush wasn't on either of those two.
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forgot this:
But the question again so it's clear, does it make sense that Palmar would play by proxy solo if he's the only scum vet in such a potentially strong town?
Yes. If his team is weak, looking at the setup with so much potential KP around - he goes into survival mode and lurks. Just killing whoever is right at night, and sheeping random town by day. As long as he avoids confrontation everyone else dies.
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On April 28 2013 13:53 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On April 28 2013 13:45 ObviousOne wrote:On April 28 2013 13:28 Ace wrote:my laptop keyboard is broken thats why I was typing like that. @rayn: earlier I said self aware millers should claim with known role counts. but seeing people call him to be shot WoS claims. So I was saying go back to the beginning of the game and see if he said anything regarding Millers. He was clearly interested in Bill Murray's situation. If he is Scum he is running a long con, and sticking with it nicely. Being as I view WoS as kind of incapable of making such a play - based on my run in with him in Ego mafia and him not understanding something I deem basic - I doubt he's doing it. If he is he has experienced Scum on his team, and with Clarity and tube flipping I dont know how much we can trust that route. He might still be scum, but I dont think his claim puts him that way. If enough people want him shot - list those players and their reasons. How many of them are people you trust to be Town and have legit reasons? Look at yamato and VE. VE looks bad when clarity flips because of his resistance. re-read that interaction! yamato has been promising cases on BC and VE for over 3 days now and has never delivered. Both are paranoid of me being Scum which is absolutely dumb since I would have just killed my Scum vigi and drop our factional KP by 2. On April 28 2013 13:07 Sharrant wrote:
Ace, what are you feeling on Hopeless? He's been on the wrong side of both lynches so far in the worst way possible. Unlucky town, or mafia? Very scummy looking or just dumb. Like VE seems super paranoid about me being Scum even with all that just went down to secure clarity's lynch. Not even pretending to read the thread. His entire reasoning rests on "some Vets must be scum" which is a ridiculous line of thinking, and a pretty poor place to start off of considering we have voting lists and 2 Scum flips. Now I wont have access to this computer all the time so I'll be back on my laptop playing charades and shit with you guys. This post needs more Dwayne Johnson gifs IMO. Do you agree that Palmar could be mafia based on his play by proxy? Would he step back and let town tear itself apart if he's the only veteran who is mafia? So far he's been sticking with the play-style for the most part (a lazy style IMO). Ignore the spoiler if you hate pre-flip association thoughts + Show Spoiler [speculation/pre-flip association] +IMO I don't see him doing that if ACE BC BM VE DOCH are all town, BUT! it's possible that mafia has some power roles and DOCH/stutters is mafia as well (someone who when he's around is hyper-active early game, or at least that's the idea I get from 1-the podcast where he talked by himself, the beta cast and 2-he burns out quickly when he's scum), like we just learned with today's flip they had a vigilante in Clarity, and role #s are not known, they could have more. This needs a flip to have any credence so I guess i'll shut up about it for now. But the question again so it's clear, does it make sense that Palmar would play by proxy solo if he's the only scum vet in such a potentially strong town? I could see him doing that. I dont view his laziness, by itself, as a scum tell for him. But not commenting on anything and just sheeping votes is not a good look. He's evaded scrutiny thus far because his name is Palmar. Likewise so has BC. It could be very possible they are both Town and like the way the game is going, seeing no reason to jump in and so too much just preferring to ride the wave. But I'm a little skeptical on that when it comes to BC because he voted for ShiaoPI even after I illustrated why he could be Town. I'd expect him of all people to absorb that one and get it instantly.
BC's return post after the lynch struck me as odd
On April 28 2013 06:35 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Mafia down to 1 kp for factional kp no?
Also TRN, stutters and sylencia would make good checks/vig targets.
It's a soft town claim, but the targets he lists also make a lot of sense in the grand scheme, so I really can't call it either way. Does this specific way of soft-claiming trigger anything with you?
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Ace. What do you make of the fact that WoS himself said he agrees with BC's post where BC said millers should never claim? That's it. That's the contradiction in itself, and that should be enough to shoot him asap.
There is no town motivation to insta-claim when people want you shot. A townie would think "crap, i have been so fucking wrong on D1 and D2. I have to relook everything and make my best to come up with the best reads possible. Then, if people do not believe me, i claim miller and have people shoot me." That's what a townie would do.
However, if WoS is mafia, there are two possibilities. People take him at face value (look at what you are doing right here) and he does not get shot. He can't be copped any more. Win situation. If people do not agree on shooting him, but mafia has a reason to believe he will be shot, what then. THROW A FUCKING JAILER ON HIM! That's gonna be a fucking WIFOM-fest @ D3, might even lead to a vigilante claiming if they shot him.
The only correct play is that all people agree on vigi shooting WoS, if he dies and flips town, he screwed up royally. But he is no longer a distraction. If he flips mafia, good. If he does not get shot, we lynch him on D3 as mafia protected him and he is mafia.
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11589 Posts
On April 28 2013 13:43 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On April 28 2013 13:33 yamato77 wrote:
Ace, if you're town, you seriously need your head examined if you're just going to throw shit at me the whole game while never substantiating your claims.
I'm very undecided on how I should view your continued lack of effort in this department, because you seem more than willing to talk about ANYTHING but analysis of my alignment, which I have repeatedly asked for from you and you have repeatedly ignored.
I literally can't get past this roadblock in my mind, so you need to step it up. are you dumb? You've promised analysis several times and have not delivered - check appeared on voting wagons where we believe scum to be - check posted a poor post in defense of the clarity lynch trying to derail the bandwagon at the last minute and accuse shiaopi - check + Show Spoiler +On April 27 2013 17:14 yamato77 wrote:So I kind of re-skimmed the thread and looked over what people have said, finally, and this post by Shiao is quite bad: Show nested quote +On April 27 2013 02:35 ShiaoPi wrote:
Well, that took a lot of time to read.
Not so sure about whom to lynch now with tube getting modkilled (lol btw!). I also have very limited time during the entire weekend, which is obviously gimping me by quite a bit as I while only be able to drop by shortly during the evening/late night before I sleep.
I am currently torn between clarity and VE.
Going with VE for now because I think it is a good idea to sheep Palmar. Go figure.
##vote: VE
If there are no direct questions to me in the next couple of minutes I'll be off to bed until I can come back on tomorrow at about the same time as right now. Much has been said about this entrance, but it was horrible, for a number of reasons. While it can be reasonably assumed that he is actually busy, the amount of this post used to excuse his own inactivity is mind-blowing. He has no original thought about the game, and doesn't seem to care about giving us any valid reasons for voting for VE outside of Palmar's lackluster efforts in pushing for the lynch. And then there's the bolded, his "reaction" to the tube modkill, that sets something off in my head. It seems unnatural and forced to go "(lol btw!)" in the middle of this post. I'd be happy with lynching him, if we feel we need to consolidate on a lynch. I've advocated playing a waiting game, but I saw it mentioned that we've only really talked about lynching between him/Clarity today, and I agree, so perhaps it is best if we move on. Another thing I thought to look at was the WHOLE votecount from day 1, not just the Oats wagon: Show nested quote +On April 23 2013 13:25 iamperfection wrote:~~~ Vote Count! ~~~
Oatsmaster: Palmar, kushm4sta, GiygaS, Vivax, raynpelikoneet, kushm4sta, Ace, WaveofShadow,yamato77,VisceraEyes,Palmar,getmoript, Mr. CC (11)
Hopeless1der: Vivax (0)
Bill Murray: raynpelikoneet, VisceraEyes (0)
Getmoript: Mr. Cheesecake, kushm4sta,WaveofShadow (0)
TheRavensName: Sharrant (0)
Raynpelikoneet: Sharrant, Sylencia, Hopeless1der, ObviousOne(3)
Ace: Yamato, Bill Murray (0)
Sharrant: raynpelikoneetClarity_nl (1)
Yamato: kushm4sta, BloodyCobbler, Ace, Grush57, raynpelikoneet, VisceraEyes, ObviousOne, getmoript, Bill Murray, TheRavensName,Oatsmaster (4)
VisceraEyes: Palmar, Yamato (0)
GiygaS: Oatsmaster (0)
Drazek: Bill Murray (1)
Remember, this Day ends when a majority is reached. As soon as a majority is reached, please stop posting until the Night Post has been posted. Only votes in the voting thread will be counted! The voting thread can be found here: (link)
With 25 alive it takes 13 votes to lynch. There are some changes to this: Show nested quote +On April 23 2013 21:39 Hopeless1der wrote:
##Unvote: raynpelikoneet
##Vote: Oatsmaster So the votecount itself is somewhat difficult to analyse, seeing as most people were either on me or Oats, but the people on Rayn do seem out of place, and it is even more weird that two of them managed to get themselves on to Oats before his lynch; Sylencia and Hopeless. Also note that Shiao's only vote of the whole day was the hammer on Oats. And people want to say that it isn't scummy? Yeah, no. But as before, there were multiple vote changes inbetween, and they are worth looking into. To begin why did Sylencia decide to change to Oats? Show nested quote +On April 23 2013 23:58 Sylencia wrote:Oats is the vote for me. Case from Vivax + aftermath between yamato vs Oats has convinced me more to taking down Oats. The thing that was holding me back most was that my primary scum suspect (rayn) was on Oats fairly early on. However: On April 23 2013 22:36 Vivax wrote:
Whatever, you're at L-1, dead. If you're town you shouldn't jumping around hysterically, but tell us who we should look at after your flip.
TRN, if you want to have yamato lynched instead of Oats, it's not my job to find arguments for you. I'd want to have Oats lynched first. Given that Oats never actually provided anything for us in terms of reads afterwards and posted crap about being green and telling people to push others. If he has nothing to say either: a) He's playing as the bad townie b) He's withholding that info from us to stop us from gaining more than we need from the lynch. Either case is bad for town, so that's why I'm willing to go down on Oats. ##Unvote
##Vote Oats Seems more of a case for voting for "bad town" than scum, which seems like a slip of a scum mindset, in my opinion. Why? Because it is something I run into as scum, how to formulate a read on a town player and call them scum so I can vote for them. Most of the time, it is "bad town" that get mislynched, so the difference becomes vague. Justifying a vote by saying that someone is "bad for town" is an easy scum out, because town players can and will be anti-town on many occasions. Yet this is Sylencia's mindset, and how he justifies the vote on Oats. Just from this voting analysis, I feel he might be mafia. I have yet to analyse his filter in totality, but given this, I will definitely give it a look. Show nested quote +On April 23 2013 21:39 Hopeless1der wrote:
Vivax where did your unofficial count come from it looks wonky...
in any case, this should be L-1 on Oats
##Unvote: raynpelikoneet
##Vote: Oatsmaster Hopeless. + Show Spoiler +Anyway, this is Wonder's SECOND EVER mention of Oatsmaster, and the first one where he gives any inclination of thinking him mafia. AMAZING! HOW DID HE REACH THIS SECRET CONCLUSION?!?!?! Show nested quote +On April 23 2013 22:37 Hopeless1der wrote:On April 23 2013 21:42 Oatsmaster wrote:On April 23 2013 21:22 Vivax wrote:
Me and ace are basically the only ones asking people to switch to Oats, others say "can do", others say it looks like a policy, or try to push other cases.
If this was a wagon on a townie, scum could be pushing it easily at this point.
Why didn't any of this happen yet? There's resistance here. Again, worst reasoning ever. Cause im town. Yeah. Hopeless. Why am I scum? I think you're too trolly in the face of dieing to be town. I'm not even certain you have a scum read on anyone at all. You've provided next to nothing. A shitty list post where your strongest scum read is "well someone has to be scum, why not Ace". gtfo. Wow. I'm not saying this is totally regurgitation of other people's arguments, but it is. This also come AFTER his vote, where he's fully aware that he's putting Oats one vote away from lynch. And then guess what happens... I unvote (temporarily delaying the lynch), Sylencia manages to vote AND: The hammer! This all happens within the span of ~2 hours, mind you, when I'm screaming at the thread not to lynch Oats. Say what you want about me, but all three of these votes are particularly HORRID, and all of them are either switches off Rayn (a wagon that seems inherently scummy, in that people that switched off it didn't seem to change their read on him much) or the player's first vote of the game. Is there a chance they are town? Sure. I'd probably say Sylencia has the most chance to be town, since when compared to the other two, his vote looks the MOST explained, despite the fishy nature of the post. The other two, however, give very little indication that they think Oats is mafia before they vote, and the hammer in particular looks like TEXTBOOK MAFIA trying to find a good reason to just lynch a town. Notably, I did something JUST like this day 1 of British Empire 1 (also instant majority), where I fabricated suspicion of a town-created wagon on a town player and managed to hammer him for the lynch. Only this is even worse, and more obvious, because they didn't even manage to look like they thought about it before obviously putting Oats in danger of, and actually being lynch. That's VCA done right, bros. And from it, I find the willingness to lynch the fuck out of Shiapi, because this is bullshit. No matter how much post-hoc justification he gives, there is only mafia motivation to be seen in what he has done. You clowned around all of day 1, almost got lynched and have shown no effort to step up. You've promised analysis on VE and BC and have failed to deliver. Telling the thread to just give you some more time. Yet you show up to blast ShiaoPi and not do what you promised. You aren't even trying to scumhunt - just throwing accusations at big name players. This apathy and lack of effort, that you yourself promised, shows you aren't focused. If you thought any of us you named were people you wanted lynched you would have made a case by now on us - not a case on ShiaoPi and ignoring clarity completely. GG scum.
I've provided almost all of the analysis I have promised, expect analysis of you, so that's a moot point. If you can't find analysis of BC and VE in my filter, you're not reading it.
I fucked around PART day 1, sure, whatever. Doesn't make me mafia.
I voted on Oats wagon, but guess what? So did you! AND, I was the only person who managed to realize that he was actually town, and tried to NOT get him lynched, so that's a non-issue. Your voting analysis is also shit and proves nothing about anyone, town or scum.
I never "defended" Clarity, I simply found SHIAO a better lynch, and I would still stand by my analysis of his posting. Just because Clarity was mafia doesn't mean Shiao isn't.
You may be right, I'm not completely focused on this game, but the effort is clearly there. I am here, in the thread, talking about my reads nearly every time I post. YOU are the one calling me mafia every time you post with ZERO fucking analysis to go along with it.
Your "reasoning" for finding Clarity a better lynch is laughable. I have no reason to believe you weren't just bussing him for cred you would have lost should he simply be modkilled. I have no reason to believe you actually found Shiao town based on anything but poor conclusions drawn from the "wagons" of three players, when you didn't consider ANYTHING about the context of the votes, why they were made, or whether they were changed or not.
It seems more like you just decided Shiao was town and had to find a reason to say so, rather than actually having analysed the information in the thread and reached a solid conclusion.
But hey, shit on my analysis some more. I guarantee one of syl/shiao/hopeless is mafia. You don't think those votes are fishy as fuck? Of course not, YOU SAID IT WASN'T BEFORE! LOLOLOL
Whatever. Shoot me. I'm obviously too angry to take this seriously.
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On April 28 2013 13:56 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Ace. What do you make of the fact that WoS himself said he agrees with BC's post where BC said millers should never claim? That's it. That's the contradiction in itself, and that should be enough to shoot him asap.
There is no town motivation to insta-claim when people want you shot. A townie would think "crap, i have been so fucking wrong on D1 and D2. I have to relook everything and make my best to come up with the best reads possible. Then, if people do not believe me, i claim miller and have people shoot me." That's what a townie would do.
However, if WoS is mafia, there are two possibilities. People take him at face value (look at what you are doing right here) and he does not get shot. He can't be copped any more. Win situation. If people do not agree on shooting him, but mafia has a reason to believe he will be shot, what then. THROW A FUCKING JAILER ON HIM! That's gonna be a fucking WIFOM-fest @ D3, might even lead to a vigilante claiming if they shot him.
The only correct play is that all people agree on vigi shooting WoS, if he dies and flips town, he screwed up royally. But he is no longer a distraction. If he flips mafia, good. If he does not get shot, we lynch him on D3 as mafia protected him and he is mafia.
I really REALLY want to ignore you. So bad. This reminds me of your play in Ego except less retarded one-liners, but you're still the same old tunnely Rayn. Stop mucking up the thread with this shit. Ace and OO and I are trying to look elsewhere for mafia and you're still hung up on me.
On April 28 2013 13:12 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On April 28 2013 13:08 raynpelikoneet wrote:So you are taking WoS at face value now because you think it's impossible that he soft-claimed miller as mafia. You are also going to ignore all the suspicious things he has done (as you fucking thought he should be shot earlier, that means you were suspicious of him). I'm going to yell so much at everyone of you if WoS is mafia and is not shot tonight. Based purely on the fact that this post here is 100% right and at least Ace should know it too, and WoS should have read it if he is in fact town miller: On April 23 2013 05:30 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
What reason does town have to make to ever claim miller? Seriously, tell me. All it does is clusterfuck a thread and leaves open ground for mafia to claim as well and thus be cleared as town as he claimed miller. Assume all miller claims are bullshit and kill. If you get red checked you get killed. Its pretty simple. You lynch people who are likely mafia. Town has no reason to ever claim miller EVEN IF THEY KNOW THEY ARE ONE. As all it does is create chaos. IE only mafia have a benefit to claim it thus should be lynched. I did read it. And he's mostly right. And I've already mentioned it's because I'd rather force a wasted vig shot than a wasted DT check and wasted lynch. Pretty decent reasons to me. Whether or not YOU think this was going to happen or not is irrelevant. It's what I thought was going to happen and so I acted. Simple.
I've also already explained to you it's not so much I was worried about being shot Rayn, you just keep ignoring this. I WAS MORE WORRIED ABOUT BEING DT CHECKED AND HAVING A LYNCH WASTED ON ME. DTs don't necessarily crumb their targets or tell anyone who they will be checking, and with people looking to possibly shoot me so early in the night, along with MANY other possible vig targets flying around, it's highly likely that another target gets shot and I get DTed instead, which is what I DIDN'T want to happen. Wasted vig shot, sure, but no wasted lynch/DT check.
I'm officially done explaining this to you. Either accept the fact that the town will either all agree to shoot me, or they won't, but stop shitting up this thread or I will assume you are doing this in order to distract better players from scumhunting and when I flip town you're going to look like shit.
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WoS i have already said what i have to say. I do not understand how you can mostly agree with post that says "millers should never claim, period". I do not understand how you are worried about a DT check rather than a vigishot when N2 has just started, when there is 24 hours time to relook everything and come up with new reads that might make town take another look at you, especially when nobody has ever mentioned anything about DT-checking you. There is no reason to argue about this, you are not going to convince me. I explained what will happen if you are alive on D3, and i hope other people do so too. You are either playing incredibly stupidly and not thinking clearly or you are mafia playing cleverly on N2. I think it's the latter.
Now convince the other people you are town. Your first reads post was kinda bad. Over half of the post said what you were supposed to do before N2, it's fucking irrelevant that you use big paragraphs now to tell us why Clarity is mafia, because he flipped mafia already.
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It's a soft town claim, but the targets he lists also make a lot of sense in the grand scheme, so I really can't call it either way. Does this specific way of soft-claiming trigger anything with you?
No it doesn't. Although BC not giving reasons for why those 2 guys should be shot is fishy. He then wants WoS to be shot too. Those are literally his only contributions: who should be killed. 0 validation why.
Ace. What do you make of the fact that WoS himself said he agrees with BC's post where BC said millers should never claim? That's it. That's the contradiction in itself, and that should be enough to shoot him asap.
2 things:
1.)Like I said in Ego mafia - WoS is not experienced and doesn't understand things I deem basic. He isn't aware of "meta play" or "mostly correct strategy". He agrees with BC's post and doesn't claim early game. That is consistent so far. His mistake seems to be claiming now.
2.)I think its possible for both town and scum to claim when faced with a vigi shot in this instance. WoS has an alibi. I dont think he's capable of running a long con that well. For now, that means we should ignore him unless he is THE scummiest person around.
There is no town motivation to insta-claim when people want you shot. A townie would think "crap, i have been so fucking wrong on D1 and D2. I have to relook everything and make my best to come up with the best reads possible. Then, if people do not believe me, i claim miller and have people shoot me." That's what a townie would do.
There is. Think of it like a lynch. We get WoS to L-1 and say claim: he claims Miller. He's killed. Instead we say vigi him: he claims Miller - shot. In both instances as Town he is caught out there -what else would he claim? If he claims VT in the face of Vigi shots, survives the night because no one shoots him and a DT shows up with a guilty result on him he is fucked. He flips self aware Miller and post game we scream at him for being dumb and not claiming  . If he didn't post about Millers earlier this would be a better indication of him being sure fire Scum. It doesn't completely absolve him but it doesn't make him the best shot either.
However, if WoS is mafia, there are two possibilities. People take him at face value (look at what you are doing right here) and he does not get shot. He can't be copped any more. Win situation. If people do not agree on shooting him, but mafia has a reason to believe he will be shot, what then. THROW A FUCKING JAILER ON HIM! That's gonna be a fucking WIFOM-fest @ D3, might even lead to a vigilante claiming if they shot him
Actually you're point about bringing up a jailer kind of exonerates him. Unless WoS is Scum jailer himself - he doesn't even need to claim. Just let the vigi shots ring and get protted. I'm taking him at face value for now - repeat, for now - because it is the simplest explanation we have. As the game goes on we'll see what we do with him, but right now his claim IS plausible AND we have plenty of other people to look it that are worse than him. If the best we have on WoS is "miller claim" going into Day 3 we are doing something wrong. Also no vigi should claim shooting WoS if he doesn't die.
The only correct play is that all people agree on vigi shooting WoS, if he dies and flips town, he screwed up royally. But he is no longer a distraction. If he flips mafia, good. If he does not get shot, we lynch him on D3 as mafia protected him and he is mafia.
Why take that path - why not look at other people? Compare their crimes to WoS's and decide who gets vigid? Dont tunnel the guy and he flips Town and we are standing around with no good direction off of it. No other self aware millers have flipped, no counter claims even with no role counts - just let it ride for now.
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On April 28 2013 13:59 yamato77 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 28 2013 13:43 Ace wrote:On April 28 2013 13:33 yamato77 wrote:
Ace, if you're town, you seriously need your head examined if you're just going to throw shit at me the whole game while never substantiating your claims.
I'm very undecided on how I should view your continued lack of effort in this department, because you seem more than willing to talk about ANYTHING but analysis of my alignment, which I have repeatedly asked for from you and you have repeatedly ignored.
I literally can't get past this roadblock in my mind, so you need to step it up. are you dumb? You've promised analysis several times and have not delivered - check appeared on voting wagons where we believe scum to be - check posted a poor post in defense of the clarity lynch trying to derail the bandwagon at the last minute and accuse shiaopi - check + Show Spoiler +On April 27 2013 17:14 yamato77 wrote:So I kind of re-skimmed the thread and looked over what people have said, finally, and this post by Shiao is quite bad: Show nested quote +On April 27 2013 02:35 ShiaoPi wrote:
Well, that took a lot of time to read.
Not so sure about whom to lynch now with tube getting modkilled (lol btw!). I also have very limited time during the entire weekend, which is obviously gimping me by quite a bit as I while only be able to drop by shortly during the evening/late night before I sleep.
I am currently torn between clarity and VE.
Going with VE for now because I think it is a good idea to sheep Palmar. Go figure.
##vote: VE
If there are no direct questions to me in the next couple of minutes I'll be off to bed until I can come back on tomorrow at about the same time as right now. Much has been said about this entrance, but it was horrible, for a number of reasons. While it can be reasonably assumed that he is actually busy, the amount of this post used to excuse his own inactivity is mind-blowing. He has no original thought about the game, and doesn't seem to care about giving us any valid reasons for voting for VE outside of Palmar's lackluster efforts in pushing for the lynch. And then there's the bolded, his "reaction" to the tube modkill, that sets something off in my head. It seems unnatural and forced to go "(lol btw!)" in the middle of this post. I'd be happy with lynching him, if we feel we need to consolidate on a lynch. I've advocated playing a waiting game, but I saw it mentioned that we've only really talked about lynching between him/Clarity today, and I agree, so perhaps it is best if we move on. Another thing I thought to look at was the WHOLE votecount from day 1, not just the Oats wagon: Show nested quote +On April 23 2013 13:25 iamperfection wrote:~~~ Vote Count! ~~~
Oatsmaster: Palmar, kushm4sta, GiygaS, Vivax, raynpelikoneet, kushm4sta, Ace, WaveofShadow,yamato77,VisceraEyes,Palmar,getmoript, Mr. CC (11)
Hopeless1der: Vivax (0)
Bill Murray: raynpelikoneet, VisceraEyes (0)
Getmoript: Mr. Cheesecake, kushm4sta,WaveofShadow (0)
TheRavensName: Sharrant (0)
Raynpelikoneet: Sharrant, Sylencia, Hopeless1der, ObviousOne(3)
Ace: Yamato, Bill Murray (0)
Sharrant: raynpelikoneetClarity_nl (1)
Yamato: kushm4sta, BloodyCobbler, Ace, Grush57, raynpelikoneet, VisceraEyes, ObviousOne, getmoript, Bill Murray, TheRavensName,Oatsmaster (4)
VisceraEyes: Palmar, Yamato (0)
GiygaS: Oatsmaster (0)
Drazek: Bill Murray (1)
Remember, this Day ends when a majority is reached. As soon as a majority is reached, please stop posting until the Night Post has been posted. Only votes in the voting thread will be counted! The voting thread can be found here: (link)
With 25 alive it takes 13 votes to lynch. There are some changes to this: Show nested quote +On April 23 2013 21:39 Hopeless1der wrote:
##Unvote: raynpelikoneet
##Vote: Oatsmaster So the votecount itself is somewhat difficult to analyse, seeing as most people were either on me or Oats, but the people on Rayn do seem out of place, and it is even more weird that two of them managed to get themselves on to Oats before his lynch; Sylencia and Hopeless. Also note that Shiao's only vote of the whole day was the hammer on Oats. And people want to say that it isn't scummy? Yeah, no. But as before, there were multiple vote changes inbetween, and they are worth looking into. To begin why did Sylencia decide to change to Oats? Show nested quote +On April 23 2013 23:58 Sylencia wrote:Oats is the vote for me. Case from Vivax + aftermath between yamato vs Oats has convinced me more to taking down Oats. The thing that was holding me back most was that my primary scum suspect (rayn) was on Oats fairly early on. However: On April 23 2013 22:36 Vivax wrote:
Whatever, you're at L-1, dead. If you're town you shouldn't jumping around hysterically, but tell us who we should look at after your flip.
TRN, if you want to have yamato lynched instead of Oats, it's not my job to find arguments for you. I'd want to have Oats lynched first. Given that Oats never actually provided anything for us in terms of reads afterwards and posted crap about being green and telling people to push others. If he has nothing to say either: a) He's playing as the bad townie b) He's withholding that info from us to stop us from gaining more than we need from the lynch. Either case is bad for town, so that's why I'm willing to go down on Oats. ##Unvote
##Vote Oats Seems more of a case for voting for "bad town" than scum, which seems like a slip of a scum mindset, in my opinion. Why? Because it is something I run into as scum, how to formulate a read on a town player and call them scum so I can vote for them. Most of the time, it is "bad town" that get mislynched, so the difference becomes vague. Justifying a vote by saying that someone is "bad for town" is an easy scum out, because town players can and will be anti-town on many occasions. Yet this is Sylencia's mindset, and how he justifies the vote on Oats. Just from this voting analysis, I feel he might be mafia. I have yet to analyse his filter in totality, but given this, I will definitely give it a look. Show nested quote +On April 23 2013 21:39 Hopeless1der wrote:
Vivax where did your unofficial count come from it looks wonky...
in any case, this should be L-1 on Oats
##Unvote: raynpelikoneet
##Vote: Oatsmaster Hopeless. + Show Spoiler +Anyway, this is Wonder's SECOND EVER mention of Oatsmaster, and the first one where he gives any inclination of thinking him mafia. AMAZING! HOW DID HE REACH THIS SECRET CONCLUSION?!?!?! Show nested quote +On April 23 2013 22:37 Hopeless1der wrote:On April 23 2013 21:42 Oatsmaster wrote:On April 23 2013 21:22 Vivax wrote:
Me and ace are basically the only ones asking people to switch to Oats, others say "can do", others say it looks like a policy, or try to push other cases.
If this was a wagon on a townie, scum could be pushing it easily at this point.
Why didn't any of this happen yet? There's resistance here. Again, worst reasoning ever. Cause im town. Yeah. Hopeless. Why am I scum? I think you're too trolly in the face of dieing to be town. I'm not even certain you have a scum read on anyone at all. You've provided next to nothing. A shitty list post where your strongest scum read is "well someone has to be scum, why not Ace". gtfo. Wow. I'm not saying this is totally regurgitation of other people's arguments, but it is. This also come AFTER his vote, where he's fully aware that he's putting Oats one vote away from lynch. And then guess what happens... I unvote (temporarily delaying the lynch), Sylencia manages to vote AND: The hammer! This all happens within the span of ~2 hours, mind you, when I'm screaming at the thread not to lynch Oats. Say what you want about me, but all three of these votes are particularly HORRID, and all of them are either switches off Rayn (a wagon that seems inherently scummy, in that people that switched off it didn't seem to change their read on him much) or the player's first vote of the game. Is there a chance they are town? Sure. I'd probably say Sylencia has the most chance to be town, since when compared to the other two, his vote looks the MOST explained, despite the fishy nature of the post. The other two, however, give very little indication that they think Oats is mafia before they vote, and the hammer in particular looks like TEXTBOOK MAFIA trying to find a good reason to just lynch a town. Notably, I did something JUST like this day 1 of British Empire 1 (also instant majority), where I fabricated suspicion of a town-created wagon on a town player and managed to hammer him for the lynch. Only this is even worse, and more obvious, because they didn't even manage to look like they thought about it before obviously putting Oats in danger of, and actually being lynch. That's VCA done right, bros. And from it, I find the willingness to lynch the fuck out of Shiapi, because this is bullshit. No matter how much post-hoc justification he gives, there is only mafia motivation to be seen in what he has done. You clowned around all of day 1, almost got lynched and have shown no effort to step up. You've promised analysis on VE and BC and have failed to deliver. Telling the thread to just give you some more time. Yet you show up to blast ShiaoPi and not do what you promised. You aren't even trying to scumhunt - just throwing accusations at big name players. This apathy and lack of effort, that you yourself promised, shows you aren't focused. If you thought any of us you named were people you wanted lynched you would have made a case by now on us - not a case on ShiaoPi and ignoring clarity completely. GG scum. I've provided almost all of the analysis I have promised, expect analysis of you, so that's a moot point. If you can't find analysis of BC and VE in my filter, you're not reading it. I fucked around PART day 1, sure, whatever. Doesn't make me mafia. I voted on Oats wagon, but guess what? So did you! AND, I was the only person who managed to realize that he was actually town, and tried to NOT get him lynched, so that's a non-issue. Your voting analysis is also shit and proves nothing about anyone, town or scum. I never "defended" Clarity, I simply found SHIAO a better lynch, and I would still stand by my analysis of his posting. Just because Clarity was mafia doesn't mean Shiao isn't. You may be right, I'm not completely focused on this game, but the effort is clearly there. I am here, in the thread, talking about my reads nearly every time I post. YOU are the one calling me mafia every time you post with ZERO fucking analysis to go along with it. Your "reasoning" for finding Clarity a better lynch is laughable. I have no reason to believe you weren't just bussing him for cred you would have lost should he simply be modkilled. I have no reason to believe you actually found Shiao town based on anything but poor conclusions drawn from the "wagons" of three players, when you didn't consider ANYTHING about the context of the votes, why they were made, or whether they were changed or not. It seems more like you just decided Shiao was town and had to find a reason to say so, rather than actually having analysed the information in the thread and reached a solid conclusion. But hey, shit on my analysis some more. I guarantee one of syl/shiao/hopeless is mafia. You don't think those votes are fishy as fuck? Of course not, YOU SAID IT WASN'T BEFORE! LOLOLOL Whatever. Shoot me. I'm obviously too angry to take this seriously.
*yawn*
link me to your analysis please, and show me where you tried to rally votes onto those suspects. I'm waiting.
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