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On April 26 2013 12:31 GiygaS wrote:
Ace there was a 30 minute time delay between you telling everyone to settle down and wait, as the day is infinite, to you telling people to "not stall the fucking wagons" in bold. How is this not pushing for the lynch? How is telling people who haven't voted for oats to vote for oats not pushing for a hammer?
The wagons were solid cases, even if they were wrong, objectively it was two scummy-looking players.
The only point against Ace in any way regarding how things went down D1 is if he somehow knew both wagons were town and you have to start from the assumption that he is mafia (admittedly easier to do earlier in the game than now) to essentially guarantee a town lynch. He didn't say not to bring up fresh cases, he basically said don't bring up terrible fresh cases or they won't be considered. I mentioned he championed the lynches as the only options but realistically after 2 real days it was time to push forward for a D1 and someone had to do it or we might have been putzing for another day.
Conversely I think we're being really productive still past the 2-RL day mark at this point but I do feel we should start listing today's candidates soon and Ace's idea of lynching from the scummiest players on the Oats wagon is probably a good place to start. That's kind of where I was going with my red names a short while ago.
Another place we probably need to look is the Yamato wagon at some point (especially those who joined very easily or with very clearly bullshit reasons [BTW my reason was I preferred to lynch Yamato over Oats at the time, save you a few seconds of checking, your call whether or not it was bullshit] plus the outlier and non-voters as the other category for D1 lynch. Treat them all as the secondary category so we don't get pigeon-holed into being too granular with the search.
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On April 26 2013 13:07 ObviousOne wrote:Show nested quote +On April 26 2013 12:31 GiygaS wrote:
Ace there was a 30 minute time delay between you telling everyone to settle down and wait, as the day is infinite, to you telling people to "not stall the fucking wagons" in bold. How is this not pushing for the lynch? How is telling people who haven't voted for oats to vote for oats not pushing for a hammer? The wagons were solid cases, even if they were wrong, objectively it was two scummy-looking players. The only point against Ace in any way regarding how things went down D1 is if he somehow knew both wagons were town and you have to start from the assumption that he is mafia (admittedly easier to do earlier in the game than now) to essentially guarantee a town lynch. He didn't say not to bring up fresh cases, he basically said don't bring up terrible fresh cases or they won't be considered. I mentioned he championed the lynches as the only options but realistically after 2 real days it was time to push forward for a D1 and someone had to do it or we might have been putzing for another day. Conversely I think we're being really productive still past the 2-RL day mark at this point but I do feel we should start listing today's candidates soon and Ace's idea of lynching from the scummiest players on the Oats wagon is probably a good place to start. That's kind of where I was going with my red names a short while ago. Another place we probably need to look is the Yamato wagon at some point (especially those who joined very easily or with very clearly bullshit reasons [BTW my reason was I preferred to lynch Yamato over Oats at the time, save you a few seconds of checking, your call whether or not it was bullshit] plus the outlier and non-voters as the other category for D1 lynch. Treat them all as the secondary category so we don't get pigeon-holed into being too granular with the search.
EBWOP: That's kind of where I was going with my red names a short while ago. Get a list of names going.**
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On April 26 2013 13:07 ObviousOne wrote:Show nested quote +On April 26 2013 12:31 GiygaS wrote:
Ace there was a 30 minute time delay between you telling everyone to settle down and wait, as the day is infinite, to you telling people to "not stall the fucking wagons" in bold. How is this not pushing for the lynch? How is telling people who haven't voted for oats to vote for oats not pushing for a hammer? The wagons were solid cases, even if they were wrong, objectively it was two scummy-looking players. The only point against Ace in any way regarding how things went down D1 is if he somehow knew both wagons were town and you have to start from the assumption that he is mafia (admittedly easier to do earlier in the game than now) to essentially guarantee a town lynch. He didn't say not to bring up fresh cases, he basically said don't bring up terrible fresh cases or they won't be considered. I mentioned he championed the lynches as the only options but realistically after 2 real days it was time to push forward for a D1 and someone had to do it or we might have been putzing for another day. Conversely I think we're being really productive still past the 2-RL day mark at this point but I do feel we should start listing today's candidates soon and Ace's idea of lynching from the scummiest players on the Oats wagon is probably a good place to start. That's kind of where I was going with my red names a short while ago. Another place we probably need to look is the Yamato wagon at some point (especially those who joined very easily or with very clearly bullshit reasons [BTW my reason was I preferred to lynch Yamato over Oats at the time, save you a few seconds of checking, your call whether or not it was bullshit] plus the outlier and non-voters as the other category for D1 lynch. Treat them all as the secondary category so we don't get pigeon-holed into being too granular with the search.
I don't know where this leads you. Looking into 20 players? Only people (besides inactives) why didn't vote for yamato or Oats are Clarity and yamato. How does this reduce your suspect pool, as i think both of those guys are pretty damn suspicious.
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I used a lot of words to basically say not to ignore the people who didn't vote Oats. Really should have just written it that way.
With four mafia left, my thinking is that we take a collective look at the top 2 scummiest players from either category and decide from that list of four which we want to vote today.
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God I should just sleep I sound fucking stupid right now.
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I still don't see why you want to ignore yamato and Clarity?
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On April 26 2013 13:22 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I still don't see why you want to ignore yamato and Clarity?
Reading up on Yamato now, I'll get back to you in a bit with both refreshed reads.
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OO im a hair away from ignoring everything you type
I will get caught up on the last 20 pages tonight
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On April 25 2013 20:29 ShiaoPi wrote:
Can we kill tube? He does fucking nothing and ninjavotes as well....
Fucking sad
This post makes me fairly uninterested in going after ShiaoPi today.
On Palmar:
He should not be lynched today, it doesn't matter how scummy you think he is. There's like a 1% chance he's actually scum, and if he is he has to reveal it in the next couple of days.
The possible play for mafia of Roleblocking him, and withholding a shot to kill him is so weak that I don't think it needs to be considered. Him and Vivax were both considered very town by the thread, neither gave any reason to think they might be a veteran.
There were only a few people that had done a very good job of making themselves look like town: Kush, Vivax, and BM
Of the people who had done a good job of making themselves look town, Palmar was the strongest player.
BM is such a volatile player that he could easily switch and become a majorly scummy looking player, and Kush is probably the weakest analyzer of the group. Palmar and Vivax make great shots (assuming Palmar is town).
That's an incredibly likely situation to me.
Now if he's mafia, the play doesn't make any sense.
They sacrifice one KP on night one, and they most likely sacrifice a role block that could potentially stop a check, to give some town cred. This is already a decently big sacrifice, but it's also the worst possible player to do it on. Are you going to believe that a town Palmar makes it to LyLo? Hell, if Palmar is alive on Day 4 would any of you think anything but insta-lynch him?
This plan becomes even worse then, when you consider that if he was RB'ed and shot tonight, then almost certainly he would be shot again or double stacked the next night. So every night they have to withhold one KP either by double stacking or just not firing.
The amount they have to sacrifice to make the situation plausible is too much.
However, since BC also claimed roleblock, it is entirely possible that scum shot BC and not Palmar. This seems very unlikely to me because BC seems almost destined to be mislynched because of how much everyone (mistakenly or not) seems to mistrust him.
So yes, Palmar could be mafia, but it's very unlikely, and it will be very obvious after a day or two if he is.
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Yamato spent a lot of posts being extremely vocal about saving Oats as the lynch got closer to a reality. Distancing himself from the lynch in the loudest way possible and then blaming himself for being objectively scummy and the only real alternative at the time thus sealing Oats' fate when he convinced town that he was town and not scum. If he honestly didn't care enough early in the day, what changed that he so quickly was ready to be all helpful and townie. The only thing that changed was him losing his life. From his filter on D1/N1 we see: Self-preservation and then remorse.
Not sure what the hell he is talking about in his most recent post but that's probably my malfunction.
On April 26 2013 08:40 yamato77 wrote:
That BC case is entirely bullshit.
I'm fully okay with lynching him now. When I have time, I will respond fully.
He's slipping back into his early D1 posting habits as he is now town in many players' minds and thus not seemingly at risk of another lynch yet.
Clarity is mentioned as not someone he is interested in lynching (noting this for myself as I move over to Clarity)
Clarity's case on Sharrant initially struck me as a WTF moment, like as soon as I first saw Sharrant's name in red I was aghast.
On April 24 2013 06:20 Clarity_nl wrote:
And to this day I still don't understand what the "points against yamato and oats" were, so how could I comment on them. They were both trolly. Now oats is dead and yamato was 100% confident that he was town by the end.
Read this quote above, read it three times.
On April 24 2013 08:01 Clarity_nl wrote:Show nested quote +On April 24 2013 07:58 Bill Murray wrote:
Clarity, before you go - NO, I am NOT satisfied
You're "Reading two hours before" but you find your way to the last 2 pages randomly? explain that logic I honestly don't remember nor care.
I think this honestly describes his entire filter. Ignorance and apathy and he's 100% okay with it.
Fuck that.
Of the two I would lynch Clarity first. Just for that last quote alone.
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One thing i don't agree with your analysis Sharrant. If Palmar was mafia and BC town i would find it likely that mafia would shoot BC over anyone but maybe Ace in addition to Vivax. No matter how right or wrong he is on D1 he is capable of destroying scumteams if they let him live.
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OO, also this;
On April 26 2013 06:48 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I am also waiting for yamato's response to BC. In case i'm wrong about VE he would be my, if not second, at least third pick for todays lynch. N1 he called Clarity scum due to his timing of the case on Sharrant without a doubt, now it's suddenly a possibility that he was just a townie who wanted to contribute something of his own. I questioned yamato about this on N1 sepecifically asking if it's possible that Clarity just thought he should say something about his scumreads when he came back. Everyone can see him changing his mind on D2 based on nothing if you read his filter.
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Clarity is going to be our lynch for today. The only person competing with him in the race for the noose just got disqualified from today's race by Tube's flip.
Person that needs to die after:
Stutters695
If you believe at all in hosts balancing the game, then you should want Stutters dead. I have all 3 real "veteran" players that are in the game marked as slightly townie or higher for each of them. However, people seem to forget we have 4 veterans. DrHelvetica started off in this game before being replaced by Stutters. When we hit night phase he needs to be shot ASAP.
It seems to me that this game is coming together nicely for town, which either means some very townie people are mafia, or the mafia are in a very weak position. If their team started off with Tube (impossibly lurky), Clarity (incredibly lurky), DrH (needed to be replaced, replacement only has 2 posts) then this would make a lot of sense.
DrH/Stutters deserves a bullet, not a noose. Someone make it happen when we hit night.
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On April 26 2013 13:49 raynpelikoneet wrote:
One thing i don't agree with your analysis Sharrant. If Palmar was mafia and BC town i would find it likely that mafia would shoot BC over anyone but maybe Ace in addition to Vivax. No matter how right or wrong he is on D1 he is capable of destroying scumteams if they let him live.
I'm not sure I follow, that just sounds like another point as to why Palmar isn't mafia. If you believe a mafia Palmar would shoot BC over anyone (with Ace a close second) but the only shot was Vivax, then does that not say you believe Palmar is not mafia?
I think we may have our wires crossed again, help me out here.
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On April 26 2013 13:54 Sharrant wrote:Show nested quote +On April 26 2013 13:49 raynpelikoneet wrote:
One thing i don't agree with your analysis Sharrant. If Palmar was mafia and BC town i would find it likely that mafia would shoot BC over anyone but maybe Ace in addition to Vivax. No matter how right or wrong he is on D1 he is capable of destroying scumteams if they let him live. I'm not sure I follow, that just sounds like another point as to why Palmar isn't mafia. If you believe a mafia Palmar would shoot BC over anyone (with Ace a close second) but the only shot was Vivax, then does that not say you believe Palmar is not mafia? I think we may have our wires crossed again, help me out here.
As BC claimed roleblocked there is a possibility that scum shot him right? If Palmar is mafia, scum probably shot BC if he is town.
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On April 26 2013 13:38 Bill Murray wrote:
OO im a hair away from ignoring everything you type
I will get caught up on the last 20 pages tonight
I don't think you're mafia right now, pinky swear. Please respond to my previous question though because it is pertinent to better understanding Palmar's alignment IMO.
On April 26 2013 12:51 ObviousOne wrote:BM, would scum Palmar leave town you open as a possible mislynch instead of telling everyone: Show nested quote +On April 23 2013 09:21 Palmar wrote:
Bill Murray is the towniest fucker in this thread. Basically that's where I ended up on you as well but it wasn't until some time later after everything settled in. From Palmar's perspective he is encouraging your possible scum reads and has essentially been playing by proxy +1'ing other people's posts. I guess I can see how he arrived there quickly since he was paying attention to you and I wasn't as concerned with getting a read on you at that point.
The bolded is what led to making you uneasy about him.
What's your take on Palmar at this point?
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On April 26 2013 13:56 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On April 26 2013 13:54 Sharrant wrote:On April 26 2013 13:49 raynpelikoneet wrote:
One thing i don't agree with your analysis Sharrant. If Palmar was mafia and BC town i would find it likely that mafia would shoot BC over anyone but maybe Ace in addition to Vivax. No matter how right or wrong he is on D1 he is capable of destroying scumteams if they let him live. I'm not sure I follow, that just sounds like another point as to why Palmar isn't mafia. If you believe a mafia Palmar would shoot BC over anyone (with Ace a close second) but the only shot was Vivax, then does that not say you believe Palmar is not mafia? I think we may have our wires crossed again, help me out here. As BC claimed roleblocked there is a possibility that scum shot him right? If Palmar is mafia, scum probably shot BC if he is town.
Ah, I get you know. That is a possibility, but I still find it quite unlikely, I will however keep it in mind. At any rate, I don't think you can disagree that if Palmar is mafia trying to pull the wool over town's eyes with this one, it is doomed to fail because he's not a player that will benefit from the plan as he either dies quickly or will get lynched.
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On April 26 2013 13:59 Sharrant wrote:Show nested quote +On April 26 2013 13:56 raynpelikoneet wrote:On April 26 2013 13:54 Sharrant wrote:On April 26 2013 13:49 raynpelikoneet wrote:
One thing i don't agree with your analysis Sharrant. If Palmar was mafia and BC town i would find it likely that mafia would shoot BC over anyone but maybe Ace in addition to Vivax. No matter how right or wrong he is on D1 he is capable of destroying scumteams if they let him live. I'm not sure I follow, that just sounds like another point as to why Palmar isn't mafia. If you believe a mafia Palmar would shoot BC over anyone (with Ace a close second) but the only shot was Vivax, then does that not say you believe Palmar is not mafia? I think we may have our wires crossed again, help me out here. As BC claimed roleblocked there is a possibility that scum shot him right? If Palmar is mafia, scum probably shot BC if he is town. Ah, I get you know. That is a possibility, but I still find it quite unlikely, I will however keep it in mind. At any rate, I don't think you can disagree that if Palmar is mafia trying to pull the wool over town's eyes with this one, it is doomed to fail because he's not a player that will benefit from the plan as he either dies quickly or will get lynched.
No i do not think Palmar is mafia. But if he is, it's even likely that a jailer (town or mafia) jailed him as he looks town for many people. But, after all, there are people who think Palmar is mafia, there are people who think BC is town, so it's unreliable to assume that it was Palmar who was 100% shot (i know i fell into this category early on, and i still think it's likely, but still).
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I forgot I had already switched my vote to Clarity earlier so its already on his wagon.
Sharrant besides stutters, what do you think about lynching Clarity and then viging into the Oats' suspects I named?
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EPT
