|
Unforgiven's response didn't do anything for me. I'm not surprised, because my primary points of accusation are points that you cannot easily explain away. He has a lot of text, but doesn't say many things of substance. To summarize his post:
1+2) the mods had good reason not to modkill him
3) He wouldn't lurk as mafia again seeing as he did it in the past
4) Claiming VT made sense
5) His read on austin was just a hunch
6) D1 bussing doesn't make sense
7/8) Nothing really new
None of his arguments do much to convince me. He doesn't give any great reasoning for the mod-warning. I don't buy Point 3 -- I could definitely see him lurking as mafia again, especially if he is actually busy. He didn't say anything to convince me that his claiming VT helped town.
And I really don't get his comment on D1 bussing. He says that scum bussing on D1 is ridiculous in a mini newbie game. But then he lists suki as a town read, myself and suki as neutral, and miltonkram as scummy. What? If bussing is really that ridiculous, then everybody should look town to him except suki.
I also dislike his reads. How can crossfire possibly be more suspicious than suki? And he liked crossfire's case on me? Crossfire himself didn't like it, nor did s0Lstice. @Unforgiven I'd be interested to hear what you find suspicious about me. I'd have expected a townie unforgiven to read me as town. Maybe unforgiven just hasn't been reading the thread much, but his reads were great during XV and seem somewhat bad this game.
Finally, the general tone and length of his defense post suggest to me that he is scum.
What I'd expect from a townie unforgiven
-- If he announces that he's going to lurk, he'll lurk regardless of whether or not he is accused
-- If he does pop back into the thread, he'll scold people for being dumb and not provide a lot of reasoning
-- He'd make some good reads and sound confident about them
What I'd expect from a mafia unforgiven
-- Decides to lurk, but then defends himself when accused
-- Make some less than persuasive arguments because his heart isn't really in it. He knows he is wrong.
His defense seems more consistent with a mafia unforgiven.
IN SUMMARY
Unforgiven's defense has done nothing to dissuade me from voting him today.
I was also unimpressed with his case on miltonkram. I'll probably be posting some of my thoughts on it tonight, provided miltonkram doesn't beat me to it.
|
None of his arguments do much to convince me. He doesn't give any great reasoning for the mod-warning How can i give reasoning about something that not depens on me? Its op's choice to warn me or replace me or kill me, its ridiculous if someones expect a good reason of something i have no control on.
I'd be interested to hear what you find suspicious about me You are overeager to show your "scum hunting" skills, you are trying to take (and have succeded so far) town leadership, you remember me of the guys who won the last game i played, people fell for it, people didnt want to REALLY analyze the way he was playing. Being closed minded doesnt help too, fyi.
If bussing is really that ridiculous, then everybody should look town to him except suki. The read i get from suki its a stardad newbie trying to be helpful, for some people (like me) its hard to make nice post whit colours and cute format, you need to just read and remember that thing you or alan posted here "sometimes the simple solution its the solution", dont expect posts from the people to "impress you", its a ridiculous and not helpful thing to do. He/she was trying to help and he/she got it wrong, its a newbie game, expect this A LOT of times. I've been there a few times already.
What I'd expect from a townie unforgiven
-- If he announces that he's going to lurk, he'll lurk regardless of whether or not he is accused
-- He'd make some good reads and sound confident about them
Kinda hard to make good and "confident" reads and lurk at the same time dont you think? Im pretty sure Milton is mafia, if for some reason he flips green, i will tip my hat to when you/cross flip red.
-- If he does pop back into the thread, he'll scold people for being dumb and not provide a lot of reasoning
Uh? i guess you are basing this on the last game...i quote "its so easy to change your style of play" and again, different situations i had a lot fo time to burn those days, cant do it now, open your mind, dont close your options basing it in one past game, you can do it (maybe) after a bunch of games you start to recognize the player different strategys
_______________________________________________________
What I'd expect from a mafia unforgiven
-- Decides to lurk, but then defends himself when accused
-- Make some less than persuasive arguments because his heart isn't really in it. He knows he is wrong.
So, if i lurk and give a easy lynch for mafia im town, if i try to defend myself i should get lynched because of it?
If you check my post im not really trying to be perssuasive, im trying to you people got and read and put yourself in Milton's position
Theres 2 option for the last mafia to do:
1.- Always be under the radar and try to not gain any enemies and always look like you are in the same sintony as town
and
2.- Be aggresive, take town leadership, point fingers to people who cant convince the town (for different reasons, posting, lurking, difficulty to express ideas)
Thats why you and cross are labeled as "neutral".
|
I was really unimpressed by Unforgiven's case on miltonkram. Here are my thoughts:
on backing off of alan+ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 17:58 Miltonkram wrote:
I'm going to back down from my pressure on alan based on this post.
...
It looks like he's a non-native English speaker. I can understand him having difficulty with the language, let alone conveying a tone that pressures other players. If that's the case I would like to hear more of what he has to say. He's shown a willingness to think deeply and consider all possible lines of play that I think may be valuable to the town. By no means am I clearing him of suspicion, but there is a certain townie logic to some of his actions now that I think more about it. I think we have several better lynch targets anyway. I'll outline who I will support for lynch in my next post. I see your point about him possibly trying to gain friends by being a "good samaritan". Honestly, I was surprised at how easily people backed off alan. Here's a quote of myself summarising opinions on alan: + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 17:18 sciberbia wrote:
suspicious: suki, s0Lstice, waffles, miltonkram
not convinced: trackd00r, crossfire
defensive: me
no comment: MJ, golden, austin, HeavOnEarth At this point alan looked like a possible lynch target. But then one by one, miltonkram, then s0Lstice, then suki backed off their suspicions. Now at least 2 of these 3 are town. So there must have been something legitamitely townie-looking about alan that made them back off. And seeing as miltonkram was the first to back off a townie, I see this as evidence in his favor if anything.
on being "under the radar"+ Show Spoiler +First of all, if he has never really been pressured, what does that tell you? Everyone reads him as probable townie. Also, while miltonkram may not be the most aggressive player, I think he has done a reasonable amount of pressuring. See his post on suki below. He has done at least as much pressuring as golden, crossfire, MJ/unforgiven. miltonkram pressuring suki + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 18:49 Miltonkram wrote:
Suki has been painting track's two posts as directly contradictory even though they aren't. This could be an overzealous town play but I don't think it is. What possible motivation could there be for a strong attack on someone with a controversial opinion? Firstly, there's the chance that the town might bandwagon on it. This would be the best possible scenario for suki if she is scum. She leads a bandwagon D1 and she gets a mislynch. Secondly, she gains town cred for appearing aggressive even if she doesn't get the lynch. It seems like a win/win scenario for scum unless of course someone makes the analysis I'm making now.
In summary, the case on trackd00r is pure crap. Making a controversial statement is not a scumtell. I think suki is trying to cover her scumminess by appearing aggressive without making a good case.
contributions to the HeavOnEarth lynch+ Show Spoiler +
I think he contibuted quite a bit to the lynch of HeavOnEarth. He was third (after s0Lstice then me) to say HeavOnEarth was suspicious and the third/fourth (after s0Lstice, alan, suki) to vote him.
I don't see how miltonkram asking HeavOnEarth to defend himself is evidence against miltonkram. If he was genuinely concerned about the activity of his scumbuddy, he'd post in the mafia QT.
I really don't see what you're saying is scummy here.
his post on roflwaffles+ Show Spoiler +
Miltonkram agrees that we should lynch/kill roflwaffles after his death has already been decided. This makes perfect sense as either town or mafia. This certainly isn't evidence in his favor, but I don't see how it's evidence against him.
Accidentally voting HeavOnEarth instead of Unforgiven+ Show Spoiler +
Don't see at all how this is scummy. His subconscious betrayed him? If anything this makes me think he is town and sees both HeavOnEarth and Unforgiven as lurky mafia, so he confused them in his mind.
@Unforgiven
I still think you are likely mafia. But if you die and flip town, I will certainly pay attention to your reads. So I'd like to know if anything I said changes your mind on miltonkram. And if any of your other reads have changed as you've read the thread. Also, I know you've claimed VT, but if you are blue, please claim before we lynch you.
|
@Unforgiven_ve
You forgot to mention Golden. Your case @ Miltonkram also fits him. However, he acts the same in another game i checked, except for the hostile response part.
@MJ/Unforgiven_ve
Rereading moudly jab's first day's posts, I don't feel like he is scum. He throws a random suspicion on rolfwaffle and rolfwaffle55 was really friendly to him. It feels like he is buying townie for rolfwaffle.
I am now no longer certain if Unforgiven_ve is scum. However, if no one views the same with me, then we will go ahead with the lynch.
Now, assuming Unforgiven_ve flips vanilla town like he said he would, what's next?
My next FoS is going to be s0Lstice. If O.Golden_ve failed to show up, I hope mods modkill him without replacement or something. I don't know. I am not gonna lie. I don't like how he lurks and I feel like if he is town he is throwing the game away for town by not contributing, so O.Golden_ve, please come back and contribute.
@s0Lstice
It sucks to say this, but after knowing what xatalos originally said, I feel like s0Lstice jumped too far in his analysis of Unforgiven. It seems like he is frustrated at figuring out who is scum, and as soon as he get a first vibe, he jumps on it. + Show Spoiler +Kinda like when I was in my Maths exam. When I think I figured out something, I jumped on it and don't want to care anymore.
He basically based his case on 3 things, please correct me if there are more:
- Mods did not kill him and mods hinted something in the observer QT.
Both are not directly related at all.
- We cleared Mouldy Jeb/Unforgiven based on "bussing".
Heavon ultimately went for O.Golden. There is no risk on that too. With trackd00r dead, all the remaining players voted for Heavon [spoiler]except for Crossfire but with a reason[/spoiler], so it means rolf and the last scum is bussing Heavon.
- Why vocal guys aren't dead yet.
s0Lstice died. When he made that statement, only 1 NK is made. Scums must be afraid the existence of a vigilante seeing how they shot a more quiet but contributing player in this game.
Why did he died
- He has good analytic skills and is considered a dangerous player for scums.
- Him revealing himself having a mentor probably made scums think that he has a role.
- Everyone has a town read on him. Like sciberbia said, he is the driving force for day 1 lynch
- His last case was on Unforgiven. (see below)
Case on unforgiven
I strongly doubt unforgiven or any of his "scum mentor" would suggest to kill him. That makes his case so much more powerful, and he won't be able to retract his reads. Of course, disregard any WIFOM that may exist. If unforgiven flips green, Last scum is looking to push a mislynch on unforgiven. My next question is "who"?
@Suki - Back to you, honey.
It was suki who was the first to jump on Unforgiven and I immediately thought she must be the last scum. Now that I step back and think, it is an understandable reaction. Suki thinks she is going to be lynched day 3, but she couldn't figure out who is scum. She have town reads on everyone and is confused. When s0Lstice pointed out that we cleared MJ/unforgiven based on a fragile reason, and she immediately thinks to herself "that's why!" and jumps on it eagerly. The same situation can be described by a scum's point of view, but it felt like it was too obvious if anything.
@sciberbia - Could it be he, the mastermind behind everything?
The second person who jumped on the Unforgiven bandwagon was sciberbia. Crossfire built a good case on him, but why did he back down? Sciberbia plays a lot like town, and he is known to be a very good player-I assume he is good at covering his tracks. S0Lstice is known to be a good player, and he defended sciberbia. Suki has a problem with sciberbia being scum because of the insta rolf bus. However, in order for me to see sciberbia as town like s0Lstice suggested, I studied two of his game as town. This is my analysis.
My analysis on sciberbia based on past games
He always started out with a policy talk, blue strategy or setup strategies in general. He list down his reads systematically. He do ask for other people's opinions on his case. I also noticed, in both of his games, the ones he called out were actually mafia. I would be lying if I said I am not impressed. Overall, his plays seems similar and there is not much to suspect........+ Show Spoiler +
After I have a good read on his filters in other games, I came back to his filters on this game. There is no You are scum post in day 1. None. Instead, he listed down already controversial players, and comment on them honestly. When I mean honestly I mean, trying to make comments based on townie's POV Passive comments that made sense without applying pressure on anyone, which seems like a big issue in his other games.
Newbie Mafia XV
+ Show Spoiler +sciberbia's case on Suki
In summary suki displays many characteristics of a mafia
- he is very hesitant to take a hard stance on anything
- he tried to pile suspicion on miltonkram, eishi_ki, unforgiven, and cattivik without really taking a strong stance
- he was wishy/washy in his accusations of both miltonkram and cattivik
- he tries to befriend active posters such as myself and xalatos
@Town
If you agree with me about suki, please say so, and indicate what in particular you find scummy. If you disagree, I'd like to hear you at least say so and give a reason why. Personally, I'm more confident about suki than anyone else so I will...
##Vote suki
+ Show Spoiler +Newbie Mafia XIVSciberbia's case against Miltion
...
IN SUMMARY:
I think milton is scummy:
- he hasn't posted a ton but enough not to be lurky
- he tried to pile supsicion on me but was wishy/washy about it
- he isn't sticking his neck out on anything
Have we seen any post like these from sciberbia in this game? None at all in day 1, and note that these posts were made in Day 1 in both games.
Also, this bothers me:
+ Show Spoiler +[QUOTE] On June 14 2012 17:18 sciberbia wrote:alan133There has been a lot of material posted on alan and an influential handful of people find him suspicious. Here's a summary of opinions on him: + Show Spoiler +
suspicious: suki, s0Lstice, waffles, miltonkram
not convinced: trackd00r, crossfire
defensive: me
no comment: MJ, golden, austin, HeavOnEarth
More of my thoughts on alan + Show Spoiler +
With 4 people willing to vote him, he is in danger of being lynched. I still do not think he is scum. His posts may be difficult reading, but overall, I think he has tried to be open and transparent.
It is true that he has taken up a policy of being indecisive and "open minded", but he has at least stated this forthright, instead of being sneaky about it.
I didn't follow his conspiracy theory either, but half-heartedly suggesting conpsiracy theories doesn't seem like something a mafia would be likely to do.
Finally, s0Lstice and suki have both talked about alan's over-defensiveness and reactionary aggressiveness. I'm just not convinced that these are attributes of a mafia. His defense just drew even more attention to himself - something that a mafia certainly would not want. To me, his defense reads as indignant and frustrated moreso than scared.
@MJ, golden, austin, HeavOnEarth I'd like to hear opinions on alan. He's drawn several players' suspicions. Would you be comfortable with lynching him?
What?
I checked his past games, and there are moments where players who he have a town read is getting lynched. What did he do in those games? + Show Spoiler +I am running out of time and this is getting really long, so I am not posting more quotes. Ask if you need it I will post it directly quoting your request.
Also, this may be over-speculation,
+ Show Spoiler + but sciberbia was VANILA both games. I am sure many people have caught an eye on him due to him calling out mafias in both games day 1, and I think many people wanted to see how he fair as scum/blue.
Townie points for sciberbia
The only scum that he directly called out was rolfwaffle in night 1. This may be the only point holding people back. I would be lying if I was not swayed by this. No reason for him to bus rolfwaffle, it will take 15 more days to win, and I think people rarely wants to sit through this 15 days.
I am not trying to take credit, but I did posted roflwaffle as my prime suspect before I wrote an entire post in it, and it was before sciberbia's case on rolf. Perhaps Sciberbia noticed the slip made by rolfwaffle, and sees that he generated a lot of suspicious around him? s0Lstice did say he has a good idea who is the 2nd scum is.
Sciberbia's supposedly bandwagony actions
He jumped on suki's case in day 2 after s0Lstice, arguing that trackd00r or suki is probably scums because confirmed scums did not attack them. Please keep in mind sciberbia was also in this category. He goes by saying did not contribute much to the lynching of both scums. Before the rolf post, has he really committed to any scum hunting?
Switching from Suki to Unforgiven_ve
If sciberbia is the last mafia, he could be doing this to buy more time to get another mislynch, with a dead guy supporting him.
I am all for lynching Unforgiven despite what I've said. I hope unforgiven spill red, and if so I am sorry for reading this wrong, sciberbia.
I am out of time, I will be back in a few hours later. Sciberbia, I reread your case on unforgiven and I thought those were solid arguments. I also noticed you were not free during day 1, so you could not come out with a solid scum read like you had in past game. Can you tell me why you changed your mind on suki? Other than you now a better lynch target.
|
@alan
If unforgiven doesn't flip red (>_<) and you are seriously interested in lynching me tomorrow, I will post more defense then. For now, I will just comment on a couple of things.
you asked why I changed my mind on suki+ Show Spoiler +I addressed this a good bit in one of my earlier posts: + Show Spoiler +On June 19 2012 14:12 sciberbia wrote:I'm leaning town on suki+ Show Spoiler +I made a case on her during D2 and here is what I listed as suspicious about her: -- her first case on trackd00r and how she backed down on it -- her stances on alan -- her stances on MJ and crossfire -- scummy defense of HeavOnEarth -- one of her comments on me -- accuses trackd00r N1 when roflwaffles was more suspicious I still think this is all suspicious. On D1, she contributed toward a possible mislynch of alan or trackd00r, didn't do anything on the cases of MJ or crossfire, and delayed more than anything the correct lynch of HeavOnEarth. However, I'm getting the same feeling with her as I did before we mislynched trackd00r. That while there is a lot of circumstancial evidence aginst her, there isn't any truly conclusive evidence, and it's possible she is just a victim of circumstance. In my mind, there are a few really good pieces of evidence that suki is town: NK of austinmcc + Show Spoiler +
I just really don't see suki making this NK. I don't think the mafia coach would have suggested this NK to suki, and I highly doubt she would have proposed the idea on her own. Not only does it seem out of character to make such an odd choice of NK, but I think I am right in saying suki was being collectively viewed as one of the most suspicious people during N1.
She would need to get mislynches on people seen as scummier than her. And austinmcc could potentially have been subject to a mislynch. I truly feel that suki would have NK'd s0Lstice, myself, miltonkram, or alan.
Finally, suki has been very active this entire game, and I'm sure that if she were mafia, she'd be active in the mafia QT as well. I don't think she'd have the mods panicking that she wouldn't get the NK in. So I think the whole NK of austinmcc is very good evidence in favor of suki being town.
refusal to give up and general townie vibe + Show Spoiler +
At several points over the last couple days, suki has looked sure to be next on the lynch list. Especially when myself and s0Lstice were both attacking her as the number 1 target. Yet she has if anything grown more active. I don't think she'd be putting such an effort into the game if she knew it was pretty much over. Also, the language of her posts have read as increasingly townie to me throughout the game. I don't think she'd come off as this townie to me if she were mafia.
So, I am going to look past the circumstancial evidence, and conclude that I'm leaning town on suki The NK of austinmcc I have been considering strong evidence in her favor. The more recent things making me lean town on her are a) the existance of a scummier target (unforgiven) b) the language of her posts since D2 (in the face of her own death) have been screaming town to me Here are some examples: On June 17 2012 13:28 suki wrote:
I just really have had bad luck and bad reads. I have to say, it feels pretty awful to put so much effort into hunting scum, only to keep missing. I'd love to go over my thoughts behind my moves this game, but I'll do that post-game so I don't clog up the thread when we really need to focus on lynching scum. On June 18 2012 13:06 suki wrote:
I beseech you guys, even if you are 100% sure I am the last mafia, you have to have to have to keep analysing for the last mafia, because I am town and when you lynch me I will bleed green. Don't waste the entire day patting yourselves on the back for catching scum suki cuz you'll be unpleasantly surprised come nightfall =[
On June 18 2012 13:08 suki wrote:
@s0lstice
I don't know. Now that you put it that way, it seems so unlikely. HeavOnEarth doesn't seem like a sophisticated player that would do something like that. Golden also doesn't seem like he'd be around enough to orchestrate that sort of thing.
On June 18 2012 14:05 suki wrote:
Yeah. Welcome to bizarro bus world. You're here already you just don't know it yet
...
It doesn't matter if you believe me now. When I flip, you can come back to these words and think carefully.
On June 19 2012 15:34 suki wrote:
I realize that I am bouncing around now. I think it has to do with just losing all faith in my own judgement, in addition to no one's really listening to me anyways. I still want to post my reads, still want to try to contribute my thoughts when people bring up cases. I still want to believe I can help push for a victory, instead of crawling into a hole and disappearing for the rest of the game because no one will believe me.
She insists on continuing to analyze even in the face of her own death. This gives me the feeling that she is townie and knows the game will go on after she dies.
on my alleged lack of scumhunting+ Show Spoiler +First of all, you said my defense of you (alan) was bothersome. I really don't see why this should be so. The bandwaggon on you was gathering steam, and you can clearly see it halt and turn around when I start defending you. Here is a similar post on my townie reads from XV: + Show Spoiler +On June 01 2012 05:25 sciberbia wrote:OK I've read through the thread, made some pretty extensive notes on everybody, and formed my own scumreads. I've got a lot to say after not posting for so long, so I'll spoiler everything. On Cattivik + Show Spoiler +
I'm providing my opinions of cattivik for two reasons:
1) He has been accused by enough people now (heist, golden, eishi_ki, suki, miltonkram) that he is in danger of being lynched today
2) heist explicitly asked for my opinion on cattivik
I think Cattivik is most likely townie
The fishiest thing about him seems to be his insistance that I am a 'confirmed townie'. Let's go through the scenarios here from your guys' persperctive. What seems most likely?
1) Cattivik is mafia. I am town. He goes way out of his way to defend me to gain an ally.
2) Cattivik is mafia. I am mafia. He defends me to the death.
3) Cattivik is town. I am town/mafia. He has a strong town-read on me and isn't afraid to share it.
Now I know for a fact that I am town, so I can rule out scenario 2. But I think even you guys should be able to conclude that scenario 3 is most likely. Both scenarios 1 & 2 seem like really bizarre, risky mafia play. Mafia can suck up to active townies and/or defend fellow mafia without being so blatantly obvious about it. Scenario 3 seems like typical brazen townie play. He is also very agressive and seems confident. Townie characteristics.
One last thing in his favor: Judging from his early posts I didn't get the feeling that he really understood my NL logic. If he were a mafia defending a townie, I think he'd at least want to have a solid grasp on what I was saying.
Now I'm not going to say he's a 'confirmed townie' but I think he is most likely town, and I would not vote for him given current evidence.
On a related topic, unless you think someone is in danger of being mislynched, please try to avoid talking about how townie you think they are. If we all agree player X is town, and we are right, we just gave mafia a really easy kill for the night.
One last thing. Did Cattivik really just change his name to Vivax? Seriously?
On Unforgiven + Show Spoiler +
Xalatos, s0sltice, golden, suki, and miltonkram(?) all find him suspicious. I'm not sold on the case against him. He has promised a defense and I don't want to do all his defending for him so I will try to be brief.
Firstly, I disagree with Xalatos and heist that he only made safe generalizations in his first few posts. I see where you are coming from because he hasn't actually made any reads yet, but he did say a couple of odd things that have earned him some flak, such as his suggestion not to use past games as a guide and his idea about a 'town leader'.
His triple post within the span of 14 minutes caught my attention. I think that scum generally take longer to construct posts for several reasons: being nervous about making a slip, making sure it sounds townie, running it by their scumbuddies, etc. Especially on his first posts of the game. Obvioulsy not solid evidence, but I think it's in his favor.
This is a newbie game. Just because you don't think he's helping town doesn't mean that he doesn't think he's helping town... Hope that made sense.
As long as he can convince me that HE thinks that he's helping town, I see no reason why he should be mafia. I'll be interested to hear his defense.
As of right now, I consider him more suspicious than Cattivik, but I don't see any really good evidence that he is mafia.
I was planning on posting my own scumreads in this post, but I've been staring at this thread for hours now and am gonna take a break. I think it's long enough already anyways. I'll make cases against my own scumreads within the next 8 hours. Note that this post was before I had actually accused anyone, much like this game. Now, I agree that this game's D1 was not my best D1. But it wasn't bad either. I correctly defended on alan, and put at least 1 mafia on my list of 3 most suspicious. I didn't make as direct an accusation this game because I wasn't as sure on any candidate as I was in previous games. HeavOnEarth didn't look especially scummy until after he started bandwaggoning with me on crossfire. roflwaffles didn't look scummy until the last couple posts of D1. And hell, we still don't know who the third mafia is, so I don't think you should hold it against me for not figuring it out in 24 hours. s0Lstice had the same opinion mid-D1, that nobody looked as scummy as in previous games. I agree that my actions aren't impossible for a scum sciberbia. But think about what you'd expect from a townie sciberbia and your expectations should line up pretty well with what I've done (seeing as I am town). As far as contributing to the deaths of the confirmed scum, I think I've done as much as anyone except s0Lstice and arguably alan.
your speculation+ Show Spoiler +
mod's completely randomize role assignments
I'm going to sleep soon. Night.
|
I'm back. Unfortunately I'm picking up some slack at work tomorrow by working a 12 hour shift. I won't be around much after this post since I'm going to sleep after this and when I wake up I'm going straight there. I'll try and check the thread from work as we close in on lynch time, but I can't give any guarantees.
Unforgiven's case on me made me feel even better about lynching him. Let's look at his 1st point against me:
First, His good samaritan side + Show Spoiler + It looks like he's a non-native English speaker. I can understand him having difficulty with the language, let alone conveying a tone that pressures other players. If that's the case I would like to hear more of what he has to say. He's shown a willingness to think deeply and consider all possible lines of play that I think may be valuable to the town. By no means am I clearing him of suspicion, but there is a certain townie logic to some of his actions now that I think more about it. I think we have several better lynch targets anyway. I'll outline who I will support for lynch in my next post. , remember Xatalos-heist and me? dont go and look! just remember (sciberbia and cross i think?) He wanted to appear like a understandable guy who just wants to be friend whit alan, right? ;D
If I recall, during the exact game Unforgiven is referencing, I (as town) semi-defended Unforgiven based on his language issues. I also backed off of Vivax a little when I thought town was tunneling him too hard. I thought we were in danger of doing both to alan. When I backed off of alan I thought a lot of the case on him was based around us misunderstanding what he was trying to say. There is a reason Unforgiven said, "dont go and look! just remember." If you looked at the game Unforgiven is referencing, you'd notice that he's only referencing material that furthers his attack on me, and he is purposefully ignoring any information that counters the point he is trying to make. Did the scum attempt to buddy by defending players? Yes. Did townies back down from/defend other players too? Yes. This holds no water and looks like a scum scrambling for cases other than his own rather than a townie trying to be helpful.
2nd point: Unforgiven states that no one pressured me.
I can't help that. I can't control who pressures me and who doesn't. This is a nonpoint.
3rd point: I didn't pressure anyone.
Yes I did. Admittedly, I didn't put a ton of pressure on roflwaffles. He seemed like he was still following up on the pressure he put on alan at the time. Was his vote/unvote scummy? Yes. Should I have grilled him more for it? Yes indeed.
I also pressured suki. I also pressured HeavOnEarth. I'm not sure how Unforgiven reads my post attacking HeavOnEarth as anything other than pressure. I also heavily (and incorrectly) pressured trackd00r up until our D2 lynch and I'm pressuring Unforgiven now. Once again, Unforgiven is ignoring any evidence that doesn't fit in with his analysis of my play. This is because he's scum, and he can't find a good option for a mislynch so he has to invent one.
4th point:And after seeing Heaven is going to be lynched and its impossible to stop it he post this: + Show Spoiler +On June 15 2012 04:59 Miltonkram wrote:
Oops, slept in a bit later than I'd planned. s0Lstice, I'm inclined to agree with you. HeavOnEarth looks like the best lynch candidate.
Everybody, I'd suggest you take a look at him. His filter is not particularly long, but I think there is enough scummy behavior there to warrant a vote.
##Vote: HeavOnEarth On June 15 2012 05:48 Miltonkram wrote:
@ Heaven
There are a lot of people jumping on your case really quickly. Not gonna lie, it's making me a little nervous. Please post some sort of defense or at the very least what kind of reads you have on players whenever you have the time. i know you werent lying, you were really nervours he wasnt here to defend himself, right?
I was nervous at how easy the lynch was going. I thought we might be mislynching since no one was trying to derail it. My point? This is a really weak point. Unforgiven's arguments are full of these.
The rest of Unforgiven's case against me is plays that are plausible for both scum and town.
My goal with this post is to show that Unforgiven went about his case on me exactly the way a scum player would go about it. He needs to get a mislynch on someone, so why not me? I'm arguably the easiest player to pressure at this point. If that's not enough, within his case he misrepresents me and attempts to make my play look a lot scummier than it actually is. Let me repeat myself, this is exactly how a scum player would make their case when they are attempting to get a mislynch.
Good night all. Lynch this guy and let's end the game.
|
No sciberbia, im just a Vanilla.
@Unforgiven_ve
You forgot to mention Golden. Your case @ Miltonkram also fits him. However, he acts the same in another game i checked, except for the hostile response part.
Yes, i was aware of this, Golden's filter i very similar to miltons but (to me at least) he really put some pressure on Heaven, read his case against him.
Now, please, if i get lynched and alan gets killed at night, kill sciberbia then milton in that order + Show Spoiler +The agressiveness coming from sciberbia and his "stubbornness" SCREAMS desperate mafia, i bet you he will go for suki then, now that suki's case is fogotten it will be his card up his slevee, Because its obvious a sciberbia lynch today its impossible
|
ebwop: Oh, and a classic mafia defense would be "DUDE YOU POINTS ARE SO WEAK AND INVALID!, you so mafia!" . So, my, now closed reads are,
Milton and sciberbia...if town wants to win kill those two.
i'd bet my account naming rights on this, any takers?
|
edbwop: if i get killed today switch that order
|
@Unforgiven_ve
There is no use denying blues anymore if you are a blue. We are set to lynch you. Please out with your actions before it's too late, it will help town a lot.
+ Show Spoiler +It's saddening thinking this game just turned from "overwhelming town victory" to a "close town victory", or could even possibly "epic mafia comeback".
Shesh. I would like a confirmation of scum reads from everyone, given that Unforgiven flips green.
@sciberbia
Him killing s0Lstice and changing lynch from suki to Unforgiven seems logical. Sciberbia has no scum slips, but it would be expected to avoid them judging on his accurate scum reads and strong analysis on his previous games. If he is scum, he probably made a list for "what to never ever post"
@Golden
Given that he did not get mod killed (He posted nothing today, and I hope he really got modkill since it is spoiling the game for town given he is town), he would be my second FoS. However, given his history (I did not check, I based it on mod's pregame comment on him), this is why he get mod killed.
@Suki
Suki's defense is really strong, and sciberbia mentioned it seems like suki is acting like the game will go on after she's dead. I beg to defer. It is easier to fake something like this especially when you're aware of it. + Show Spoiler +. Every single time I read suki, I read differently. I feel like she contributed by encouraging people to post, and I still see no link between her and rolf in the early game, but her random lynch target in Day 1 really throws me off.
@Austin's dead
I would say mafia was searching for blue. Rolfwaffle was practically dead and the best scums could've hoped for is to kill the vig/or there is no vig. This will give them one extra day. I can totally see sciberbia wanting to bait and see if there are any vigilante slip by outing it. This is far sketched, but I won't be surprised if that is the case when he flip scum. Austin aren't the most active poster, giving him some "blue points".
@s0Lstice's dead
I think this is more of a "kill strong trusted analytic townie". This is a good scum move. I sincerely thinks this is better than "kill the confirmed vigilante that can't write english well and occasionally change his mind/counter argue himself."
I don't want to out my "next expected victim if Unforgiven_ve flip town". I don't know how good my analysis is, but in case they are good, I don't want scums to get advantage from it.
Please think who is scummiest. Suki, if you are town, do the town a favor and regain your confidence. Don't worry about pushing the wrong lynch. Everyone does that. When we lose we will just laugh about it and learn. Don't be afraid to make mistakes. We need your help. If suki flip scum I can see how every is going to LOL at me.
may I have a vote count? What will happen if Gold fails to post and vote?
|
My thoughts on unforgiven:
To everyone, re-read s0lstice's case on MouldyJeb and unforgiven:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15139936
s0lstice's case was based not just on unforgiven's filter and playstyle, but also MouldyJeb's filter and playstyle. Both players made weak reads. MouldyJeb made a crap case against rofl. Unforgiven labels austin as possibly scum just before austin gets NK'd.
In addition:
Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 09:32 HeavOnEarth wrote:
was sort of waiting for MJ to post something after he was like hurr durr ima post soon. i took a look at his previous game though and his posts seem consistent from when he was townie. hes really not helping at all, and definitely still looks scum, but it feels like poor town play rather than mafia.
Tell me this doesn't sound like newb scum talking about a teammate.
I agree with s0lstice that this sort of soft defence is extremely fishy.
.
In response to unforgiven's self defence, one thing stands out to me:
its so easy to change your style of play its makes it a waste of time (at least for me) ...
I don't buy this statement. I had a quick glance through unforgiven's first game as mafia, and between his playstyle as mafia and playstyle as town, he is playing a style much more similar to the former. He lurks a lot in the first game, and he gives excuses why he's busy. This was consistent with his playstyle up until he started getting under heavy pressure.
Note too that the way that we are criticizing his play is not purely a stylistic choice, it's also based on his personality. He's being too helpful as opposed to harshly criticizing bad play and bad reads. It just feels off.
I see both scum and town motivation for the way unforgiven has been acting after s0stice's death, but the fact of the matter is that the gameplay before that by BOTH players is suspicious.
I like the case against unforgiven.
Analysis on other players will have to wait until later. Gotta go to work.
@alan
My targets on day 1 weren't random. I tunnelled you and forced you to contribute and I agreed upon HeavOn after reviewing the case against him. You could view it as 'bandwagoning' but the reasons are very clear and not random at all.
|
Day 3 votecount
Unforgiven_ve (4)
suki
sciberbia
alan133
Miltonkram
Miltonkram (1)
Unforgiven_ve
With 7 alive it takes a majority of 4 to lynch.
|
@alan
We really do not want golden to be modkilled if he is town. That would likely put us in LYLO if we are wrong about unforgiven. We'd really need him around so we get two more lynches.
@golden
Please vote.
|
may I have a vote count? What will happen if Gold fails to post and vote?
I would assume that golden and crossfire would be modkilled since they didnt post at all this cycle thus far, but prplhz may decide to warn them instead.
Votecount is above 
|
@suki
I was talking about your first case against trackd00r
@sciberbia
Indeed, sharp as always.
@golden
please vote
@crossfire
please vote
|
On June 20 2012 08:18 Unforgiven_ve wrote:oh, and Crossfire, your analisus about sciberbia was very good, i was inclining to him being the last scum, till i realized milton was still alive for no apparent reason .
On June 19 2012 05:23 Crossfire99 wrote:I'm glad that someone found my case to not be convincing (I was hoping it was someone I had a less solid read on than you solstice  ). I only decided to look into sciberbia once i saw in his filter him trying to get a second vigi to claim and his question early this night. As I wrote the whole thing up, I realized that he is playing very townie and there is no way he is scum, but I decided to post my case anyway to get some reactions. Since I'm not not going to be around close to the deadline, I have to post this now which is unfortunate because I was hoping more people would have to respond to it, but oh well.
You think my case on sciberbia is good??? I said after I posted it that I thought it wasn't good...
##Vote Unforgiven_ve
|
Oh, also if unforgiven flips green, I'm going to guess that either milton or golden are mafia, but i have both of them as pretty much town right now...unforgiven better flip red. lol
|
On June 21 2012 01:49 Crossfire99 wrote:
Oh, also if unforgiven flips green, I'm going to guess that either milton or golden are mafia, but i have both of them as pretty much town right now...unforgiven better flip red. lol
Yes, because BEFORE reading your case he was my main suspect, you backed from your case pretty easily, you are falling for his good redaction ans posting skills. After readin some more, Milton jumped to be my main suspect...I confess my faith was on you cross =( ... and i even thought suki would have some brain and see beyond the lines and lame excuses from milton and sciberbia, alan is just a sheep now, got a lucky shot. Golden, well...he is afk and its not helpful, but he is town.
|
dammint, i was writing a post and the f** power went out for 1 second and i lost it, let me summarize
Now, when i die, We will need golden to afford a mislynch:
me dead + NK+ Show Spoiler +(most probanly alan but it can change after mafia read this and choose a random target hoping to get a suki misslynch tomorrow)
1mislynch tomorrow + NK = 1town and1 mafia gg
I confess i had some faith on you cross  ... suki just cant see beyond the lines and is in love whit cute posts and lame analysis... and alan is just a sheep, he just got lucky whit that shot + Show Spoiler +is this the kind of post you were expecting siberbia?
My last attempt will be this, going against my own belives and seeing you are blindly reading and using past games, i will show you what a mafia posted in NMM XV
On May 31 2012 17:31 Xatalos wrote:
blah -
As things stand, I'm ready to go for a Unforgiven_ve lynch. However, I want to see your response first, Unforgiven_ve. You better impress with your next post or your filter looks really bad already.
On May 31 2012 23:43 Xatalos wrote:
blah
Finally you posted something, but it's not what I was hoping for from a town Unforgiven_ve. More like what I expected from a Mafia Unforgiven_ve.
This response convinced me. It's time to get the ball rolling.
AHEM
On June 20 2012 11:41 sciberbia wrote:
Unforgiven's response didn't do anything for me. I'm not surprised, because my primary points of accusation are points that you cannot easily explain away. He has a lot of text, but doesn't say many things of substance. To summarize his post:
On June 20 2012 14:48 sciberbia wrote:
I was really unimpressed by Unforgiven's case on miltonkram. Here are my thoughts:
bleh-
|
lol, power went out again 5 seconds after i clicked post!!!
and i see i posted the same thing in the beggining , so you can be sure
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
