EPTI think s0Lstice already covered most of the relevant points and it seems like you (crossfire) didn't think I was mafia anyway. Do you still want to hear me explain my actions or would I just be wasting time? I'll at the very least explain my comments on vigilantes when I get home.
Newbie Mini Mafia XVII - Page 24
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I think s0Lstice already covered most of the relevant points and it seems like you (crossfire) didn't think I was mafia anyway. Do you still want to hear me explain my actions or would I just be wasting time? I'll at the very least explain my comments on vigilantes when I get home. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
Crossfire's post analyzing the lynch of HeavOnEarth+ Show Spoiler + During N1, Crossfire made a post analyzing the who/how/when of the HeavOnEarth wagon: + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 14:24 Crossfire99 wrote: Ok now let's analyze this lynch. Solstice drew the first blood with these + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 10:07 s0Lstice wrote: Alright, so I went filter spelunking and explored every nook and cranny. My general impression at this moment is one of disappointment. I know it's rare to get good reads on day 1, but some people's filters are incredibly barren. If I had to lynch right now, here would be my suspects. HeavOnEarth He's pretty lurky. His hard stance is on Golden, where he builds a case on the poor guy's intro post. Look at the case: Think of it like this. Scum will be making cases against people on day 1...they have to. I looked at all the cases people have made, and this one stank especially bad. It's built entirely around a hello post. It has a very artificial feel to it. Also, he just posted this: Townies always feel the pressure of the ticking clock. Half of our time being gone doesn't seem to trouble him. He hasn't really bothered to comment on what's been going on in the thread outside of his own reads. He's been on Mouldy Jeb's case as well. Here's some more recent(!) material: Confused? Me too. I think this dude has a chance at flipping scum. On June 15 2012 00:50 s0Lstice wrote: Some housekeeping stuff first.. I am removing alan133 from my scum list. The main thing that had me suspicious was his strong-arm defense, but everything following that has been fine. I like that he is holding himself accountable for his style, and I want to see what he can do when not under pressure. austin and suki have commented on crossfire99, and I have to say I agree. I was planning on wrighting a post similar to what suki has done. The cogent point is that he has long bouts of inactivity when he is both scum and town. He should get the same level of suspicion that every lurker gets, but nothing special beyond that I feel. His filter right now is pretty garbagey, and hard to get a read on. I wouldn't be upset if we lynched him, but I think we can do better. Here is better: HeavOnEarth. Nothing has happened to change my initial opinion on him for the better. In fact, him buddying up to sciberbia in his latest post makes him look worse. Go read my case if you missed it. I'm not the only one to see him as suspicious, so I think there is plenty of traction here. ##vote HeavOnEarth Then alan joins the fun with this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 04:00 alan133 wrote: I see the current pressure are easing off from me. I also realize I has pretty much ignored everyone else except for rolf and suki. @HeavOnEarth His first few points seem disconnected. None of them relates to each other: From FoSing Golden for his opening post, + Show Spoiler + And I thought rofl@me and suki@trap was bad He also state that he is waiting for responses. Upon being debunked on Gold's read, he basically dismiss it similar the way suki has dismissed her case on trap, claiming they are trying to start conversation. In suki's case, this is still believable. Before her case there was no controversy, and very little to talk about. However, when Heave posted on Gold, there were already controversies + Show Spoiler + rolf@me suki@trap Very Suspicious Right now, I find Heav and MJ were the best lynch candidates, and HeavOnEarth appears to be more scummy ##unvote: Suki ##vote: HeavOnEarth I am off to bed, it is 3 am right here. I will get up in 4 hours so we can get a successful lynch. Another refresh reveals more post from crossfire. My opinion on him has not swayed. Next suki comes to the party + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 04:58 suki wrote: HeavOnEarth: Okay, something really really sticks out to me in Heavon's first post, and it's not about golden. It's this particular line: Above, I posted my opinions on Crossfire, where I had gone through pretty much his entire filter in his two previous games, and the big thing I noted was that Crossfire LURKED very hard in his first game as blue, and somewhat lurked in the second game as red. HeavOn clearly is talking about Crossfire's game as blue, 'He was a pretty talkative little townie'. This is clearly wrong. He continues his case against Crossfire later after sciberbia brings it up. This has already been labelled as suspicious. It's a big point against him that he waited until someone else pointed fingers at Crossfire, when he had so early established a read on Crossfire - a fairly in depth read as he had even looked at Crossfire's filters from previous games. The thing is, the case HeavOn makes against crossfire disregards the previous game filters. Crossfire, as mafia, was assertive actively pushed cases against other players. He also lurked quite a bit. HeavOn votes for Golden despite saying that his case against Golden is weak. He doesn't back off however, stating that the response was scummy and that the scummy thing about it was how golden was commenting on the time it would take to make his posts? Seems like a very strained argument to make. I see clear scum motivation in voting for golden. In my previous game as mafia, I harped on Miltonkram for his early vote against sciberbia. Even when my argument was convincingly rebutted, I continued to press my case against him finding any sort of scummy intent I could make up. Why? Because I didn't want to be wishy-washy. HeavOn's case against golden is that golden 'just feels off'. This makes Golden a 'solid lynch' to him. I'm out of time, but that's my insight into HeavOn. I feel that there can definitely be scum motivation behind his posts. I haven't had time to closely look at other people but for now HeavOn is clearly a scummier target than alan. ##unvote alan113 ##vote HeavOnEarth Those three I mentioned above all brought solid analysis and new thoughts on Heavon, so I feel confident in seeing them as town for right now. Then Milton (+ Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 04:59 Miltonkram wrote: Oops, slept in a bit later than I'd planned. s0Lstice, I'm inclined to agree with you. HeavOnEarth looks like the best lynch candidate. Everybody, I'd suggest you take a look at him. His filter is not particularly long, but I think there is enough scummy behavior there to warrant a vote. ##Vote: HeavOnEarth On June 15 2012 05:09 roflwaffles55 wrote: I noticed already that his play was scummy, however I felt like it was the easy way out, I was hoping to nail a more influential scum D1, but I guess that's just new player optimism... If he flips scum, I'm not sure what kind of information we're going to gain from it as his posts don't seem to link him to anyone.. and if he flips town then all we really know is that he was a poor townie. I'll go with the flow because he's fairly blatant with his scumminess (real word?) but I'd like to keep an eye on Crossfire, as well as keeping Mouldy Jeb in mind for a D2 lynch. ##unvote Crossfire99 ##vote HeavOnEarth I'm not sure if I'll be on tonight, I'll do my absolute best to be on in case there's a swing of opinion. On June 15 2012 06:27 O.Golden_ne wrote: in regards to HeavonEarth. In relation to my: a) knowing i'm town. b) Him trying to bus me one the grounds of "seems like a solid case". c) lacklustre contribution and no rebuttle to any arguments. i feel like he see's a bandwagon forming and jumps on straight away. #VOTE: HeavonEarth i still maintain a #FOS on MouldyJeb i still owe the group a comment on Crossfire99 but i honestly dont have time for it before work. On June 15 2012 02:44 roflwaffles55 wrote: I'm going to post as though all of these people are scum, and the impact they have a chance to make if they are left alive. I think it will give a different way of thinking about it. HeavOnEarth His play is quite suspicious and his accusations and suspicions lackluster at best. He could just as easily be an awful townie as scum. Overall he's been fairly ineffectual, but if he's hiding behind a mask of confusion and bad reads, he could be an annoyance as scum later on. I believe that the most lynchable potential scum right now would be Crossfire99. I understand that there are already votes on HeavOnEarth, but if he really is that incompetent at bringing cases to the table, as a scum, why would he try to post them? He is suspicious to me, but not as suspicious as Crossfire. Unless he responds to the accusations in a convincing and collected manner soon, I strongly believe that he should be lynched. ##vote Crossfire99 This is followed by sciberbia's vote + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 07:56 sciberbia wrote: My thoughts on HeavOnEarth: I was originally somewhat suspicious of him for throwing suspicion onto a handful of easy targets, and then becoming wishy/washy about it. He has since made me more suspicious with his response and attitude towards golden. First of all, he admits that his case was "pretty damn bad" and LOL's about it. I see this as slightly scummy. He is being ingratiating and agreeable, rather than firm, objective, and analytic. This is more typical of mafia than of townies. Next HeavOnEarth says that there were no other posts to provoke Golden with. The question I'm left asking myself is: why did HeavOnEarth feel that he had to attack Golden at all? He says it was strong play of him to "accuse lurkers of being scummy", but at the time of HeavOnEarth's accusation, golden didn't look lurky. Golden made 1 post in the first 4 hours of the game, and then HeavOnEarth accused him. 1 decent-sized post in the first 4 hours isn't lurky. Why was HeavOnEarth looking for a reason to "provoke him"? Finally, heavOnEarth refuses to back down from his suspicions of golden, and even ends up voting golden, but doesn't give any good reasons. He just says that golden's posting seems odd. Odd =/= scummy. It looks like he just arbitrarily picked a target to attack at the beginning and now won't back down. Overall, I think he has a good chance of being mafia and I'm happy with lynching him. ##Vote HeavOnEarth Then austin comes in and votes for me with this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 08:28 austinmcc wrote: I think Heavon looks scummy. But his voting took off after he posted that he was going to be gone for auto repairs. And there's been very little pushback. I'm particularly worried by: (1) us going for the guy who basically said "Won't be around to defend myself," and (2) the lack of any pushback against him, when we had multiple targets recently. There could be some bussing going on, but we had a couple other juicy targets, and I wouldn't expect a bus in that situation. At the very least, my stance right now is that he doesn't look good, but the vast majority of the votes and comments on him seem to have occurred after he said he was leaving. I don't want to lynch him today based on that alone. See your comment towards him. Yes, his reads would help town. Yes, he ought to defend himself. But he may actually have been gone these last few hours, and I want to see his response before I lynch him. If it looks bad, there's D2. I think I'm saying the same thing over and over, so I'll knock it off. Apart from those basic statements, I'll note this. He DOES fit into a category of people trying to look like they're scumhunting but not. The 1 post suspicion of Golden, his comment on MJ - his chiming in on crossfire - + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 20:15 HeavOnEarth wrote: @Sciberbia in addition to what u said on crossfire, notice that he 1) only replies when called out. Every message he is replying to someone, not making his own points aside from his opening. 2) Every one of his posts feels like complete filler to me. he is trying to LOOK helpful, without actively contributing anything + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 02:06 Crossfire99 wrote: I agree that we need more information and we get that from pressuring people, but we need to do that smartly. If too many people are throwing around minor accusations all the time, it just confuses the town and allows mafia to sit back and laugh. That is what happened in NMM XIII when I was mafia. Ask austin, he was in it too. On June 14 2012 03:38 Crossfire99 wrote: Yeah Mouldy is acting really weird. He needs to get active to explain himself. Everything he has said so far lacks good reasoning. On June 14 2012 03:50 Crossfire99 wrote: I never said don't vote. I just said be careful about throwing your votes around willy-nilly under the premise that you are going to remove them later. I never even said don't do that. I just don't want someone sticking someone else with a vote for flimsy reasons that ends up sealing a lynch because they couldn't get back in time to change it. That was the entire point of those two sentences. As for the mention of the scum tactic, I'm just saying that sometimes scum can not take part in big discussions later in the day by voting early and then disappearing. I'm just trying to help roflwaffle, by trying to get him to think about taking his vote seriously and having good reasons for whatever he does. If no one holds anyone accountable mafia can just breeze on by. 3) notice his defensive, and meek tone; in addition to his low post count. he's obviously afraid to attract attention to himself 4) he was lurking for a LONGGG time before he finally decided to post . What u thought we all forgot about that? That leaves me with cross. ##Vote: Crossfire99 What I'd ask of everyone is to show me where Crossfire has done any scumhunting. He posted a little, dropped off the face of the earth, came back, responded to everyone's comments towards him, but never even gave us a single read throughout the day. Nobody looked scummy, because he really just didn't comment on ANYONE. I'm confused as to how that can be towny behavior, and he dropped in, spent time responding to all these people, but spent 0 characters doing any kind of hunting himself. Lurking is bad, but you can lurk and contribute when you pop up. HeavOnEarth didn't contribute when he came back. Crossfire didn't contribute when he came back, except addressing our concerns about him. Between the timing of the votes on HeavOn and the lack of any push on him, I'd rather go with Crossfire today. Trackdoor then comes in and votes last with this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 08:52 trackd00r wrote: I was checking Heaven's filter. I must admint that he looks suspicious at this stage of the game. I was expecting from him a more detailed analysis of his play, since he stated that he has more experience in playing mafia. I dislike the fact that he took the most easy target to pressure (golden), instead of trying to outline the other players, He also adds some points against CF, but isn't really big of a deal. Although I share some suspicions with him, I see that he is not contributing at the same level as the rest of us are. I don't really think that it will be that much of a loss if he flips town. If that is the case, he have a whole post history behind us too see who bandwagoned and who tried to hunt down mafia As I don't want a NL, I'll change my vote to heaven. ##Unvote: O.Golden_ne ##Vote: HeavOnEarth I think that leaves everyone except for me and Heavon. I won't even bother quoting Heavon. He just went with a weak vote on Golden and then got lynched. And I missed the lynch for the reasons stated above. Ok. That's all the time I have for now (I should have gone to bed an hour and a half ago, but whatever). I don't know if I'll be back in time before the night ends to post some more thoughts, so consider this my contribution for now. If I survive the lynch, I'll look into roflwaffle's filter and get a better read on him. I encourage you all to do the same and let me know what you think whether you agree or disagree. First of all, I just want to point out that I think you, Crossfire, missed a couple of my early posts on HeavOnEarth: + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 14:10 sciberbia wrote: HeavOnEarth I don't have all that much too analyze with HeavOn Earth, but a couple things look scummy throws suspicion on several easy targets+ Show Spoiler + My main problem with him is that he has halfheartedly thrown suspicion onto golden, MJ, and crossfire. All three of these players were rather quiet (at least initially) and relatively easy targets. As s0sltice said, heavOnEarth's actual cases were unimpressive. Here are heavOnEarth's scumhunting posts: + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 23:52 HeavOnEarth wrote: ...That said O.Golden_ne looks the most suspicious to me- *quotes Golden* Is there anything even remotely helpful in this post? Everyone knows NL is bad. he seems to be posting for the sake of it also, i checked his last game, (he was townie) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=337671&user=92568 u can tell his tone is completely different, and he is generally more helpful. also id like to point out crossfire is completely inactive, whereas in past games he was a pretty talkative little townie. thoughts? + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 02:39 HeavOnEarth wrote: As for my suspicions, golden still hasn't replied, and there seems to be a lot of random fluff RIGHT AFTER my accusation, by both Mouldy Jeb AND crossfire( oh hey there nice of u to suddenly wake up ) this is a common mafia tactic, to throw the spotlight off someone being accused. check out Mouldy Jeb's posts, and accusations Why would someone try to direct suspicions with NO reasoning? And now he becomes wishy/washy+ Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 09:32 HeavOnEarth wrote: was sort of waiting for MJ to post something after he was like hurr durr ima post soon. i took a look at his previous game though and his posts seem consistent from when he was townie. hes really not helping at all, and definitely still looks scum, but it feels like poor town play rather than mafia. as for golden im still undecided since he hasnt posted anything what the fuck -_-. why sign up if ur not gonna fucking play but i guess i doubt hes mafia, i would've expected at least a simple reply to my accusations if he was mafia by now. but it seems he just doesnt give a fuck @_@ idk. kinda confused at this point In this post he becomes wishy/washy about his suspicions on MJ and golden. In particular he says "as far as golden im still undecided". What? Before, golden seemed most suspicious to heavOnEarth. Only recently has he become undecided. This is pretty wishy/washy. The only reason I don't see this as super scummy is that he voluntarily adjusted his reads; nobody asked him to clarify them. My suspicions on HeavOnEarth are tempered by some of the boldness in his filter, such as -- saying "it doesn't matter if your suggestions are completely bad" -- his questioning s0Lstice about the lynch not being for 24 hours -- his abrasive summary of how MJ and golden have been playing Overall, I'd say HeavOnEarth is somewhat suspicious + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 17:27 sciberbia wrote: Personally, I'd like to vote for suki, crossfire, or HeavOnEarth. I have no read on MJ or golden. I would not like to lynch alan. the hour in between my post on suki and my post on crossfire/heavOnEarth + Show Spoiler + was spent writing the post. I just wanted to get some thoughts out there, and split up my posts to make them easier to swallow, much like you did in your splitting up of posts in accusing me. "soft defense" of HeavOnEarth + Show Spoiler + I think the term "soft defense" is pretty misleading. I listed him as one of the three people I would vote. However, I wasn't too sure about any candidate, and least sure about HeavOnEarth. I listed what I found townie about each candidate as well as what I found scummy. You'll notice that I pointed out one townie line of suki's as well. As to why I read those statements as townie, it's because boldness is generally a townie attribute. asking s0Lstice about miltonkram + Show Spoiler + I was in the process of thining about who might be mafia if it's not suki, and I was thinking that miltonkram was next most likely after suki. I saw s0Lstice make a scumhunting post in which he suggested he would be going to bed soon. I really respect s0Lstice's opinion, and I think he is townie. I wanted his honest opinion on miltonkram before he went to sleep. That's all there is to it. NK analysis+ Show Spoiler + I really like NK analysis. austinmcc died for a reason, and I want to know what it was. Knowing whether or not the last mafia is a roleblocker could certainly prove useful. And it helps explain why I think austinmcc was killed: he looked blue to mafia. @alan + Show Spoiler + As s0Lstice pointed out, I've been suspicious of suki all game. I thinks s0Lstice is townie for his general townie vibe and large contributions to the death of confirmed scum. He was the driving force behind the HeavOnEarth lynch. I disagree with your read on Golden. I don't think HeavOnEarth's attacks on him look like a bus. I'm not saying miltonkram is really scummy, but I think it's plausible that he is mafia. Sorry, my question about 3 NKs was a joke. 3 NKs would be completely overpowered. My comments on the vigilante situation + Show Spoiler + I don't see what I did that is so suspicious or logically fallacious. I'll try to explain more: On June 16 2012 09:16 sciberbia wrote: @s0lstice I don't think it makes too much a difference whether vigi claims or not. Vigi will obviously claim if in danger of being lynched, and we will obviously believe them unless there is a cc (in which case it's gg). So the only way vigi can ever get lynched is if it comes down to 3/4 players left and the scum fakeclaims vigi. So I don't think it can possibly hurt for vigi to wait until 5/6 players left before claiming. I think there is a very slight benefit to vigi not claiming today. The benefit is that scum has fewer good NK options. Overall, I think it'd be very slightly beneficial for vigi to wait till 5/6 players left before claiming. But it's not at all a big deal, and if vigi judges that the knowledge that they (the vigi) is confirmed is helpful to town, I have no problem with that. This analysis is all under the assumption that there can only be one vigi. Given that assumption, I think it can't hurt for the vigi to wait until 5/6 players left to claim. I don't think anyone had a problem with this post. On June 16 2012 09:57 sciberbia wrote: crap just realized there could potentially be two vigis. So my previous thoughts about cc'ing vigi and scum fakeclaiming vigi don't fully apply. Still, I think it is most likely that there is only 1 vigi, and I don't think it really matters whether or not he claims today. Here I realize that we could potenially have two vigis, so previous analysis no longer full applies. I don't think anyone could have a problem with this either. Here are my thoughts on thinking that a (potential) second vigi should claim: -- I didn't want it to come down to LYLO and then have scum say "I'm vigi. I shot roflwaffles N1 too." And then not know if he's fakeclaiming -- If scum were going to fakeclaim the second vigi, I think it'd be beneficial to make them do it sooner rather than later. Force them to make the committment now rather than leave their options open -- If we are going to clear alan as confirmed vigi, we need to be sure that there was not some other vigi that shot roflwaffles -- If we do actually have 2 vigis which shot roflwaffles, I see no harm in telling them both to claim Oh, I literally just realized what you're all probably upset about. I didn't want a one-shot vigi to claim before using his shot. I was just assuming in my mind that if we had 2 vigis, they both would have shot roflwaffles. I see now what you all found so suspicious. Of course a one-shot vigi should not claim before using their shot. Let me know if this is stil unclear. Anyway, I'm going to be afk for about 2 hours. Let me know if you're unsatisfied with anything. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I've only read through it once and I have to go in like 5 minutes so here are some brief thoughts: The mod warning on unforgiven seems like good evidence. I originally thought the replacement of MJ was evidence in his favor, because one of the mods said "he will be modkilled/replaced(probably replaced)" and I didn't think the mods would even consider modkilling a mafia. But you're right, I think we should have expected a modkill (or at least replacement) on unforgiven if he was town. I'm not buying into your filter analysis on MJ too much just because of the really small sample size. On Unforgiven though, I could definitely seem him doing some intentional lurking as mafia. I also really like how the kill of austinmcc would fit with him. Maybe he asked for opinions on austinmcc to see if anyone thought he was scummy before killing him? I forgot about the mafia coaching. I think it's much less likely that the two confirmed scum would make the comments they did on MJ if they listened to mafia coach. I have been thinking to myself that of all the mafia to bus D1, MJ would be a great choice. Overall, I think your case has merit, but I'm not as convinced as you are. Right now my list of 3 would be suki/unforgiven/miltonkram. If I'm alive tomorrow I'll think about it more, but I really have to go atm. | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
I was reading through the filters when I noticed your posts on Unforgiven. I was a little skeptical of the case, it seemed like you were reading way too far into host actions and such. The only thing I found scummy was HeavOnEarth's "bus" of MJ D1. Nevertheless your posts caused me to do a double-check of Unforgiven's filter. I'd like everyone to take a look at this post. On June 16 2012 02:35 Unforgiven_ve wrote: edbwop: *a player.. is kinda hard to get the pulse of the game after 10pages but i will do my best. I a vanilla btw What purpose is there in claiming VT? If a player is vanilla they should be happy to take a bullet for our blue roles. Claiming vanilla does nothing for town. What does it do? Firstly, it makes it less suspicious when Unforgiven isn't shot during a night cycle. Secondly, it keeps Unforgiven from committing completely to information. Any actions a VT takes have the built in defense, "but I didn't have complete information." This seems advantageous since roflwaffles was still in the game at that time. If roflwaffles was still alive after N1, he could back down from the weak pressure he posted here. On June 16 2012 03:09 Unforgiven_ve wrote: In case i die, my 2 "best" reads (so far) are austincc and roflwaffles55. They were trying to push a lynch on Crossfire, seeing as this wasnt working they decided a Bus from roflwaffles55 and austin will kept his target "just in case". We still have 6 more hours till night ends right? There is absolutely no reason for VT to claim VT. Lynch this guy. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
Day3 ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/41ijy.png) Mafia is all fun and games until someone wakes up with a machete through their skull. s0lstice the Vanilla Townie has made his last analysis With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
gg guys | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
Blue roles @Cop Out with a guilty, else don't out. @Other blue roles Jail keeper should have at least 2 innocent that is still alive. @Last Mafia Concede now Please correct me if there is anything wrong with my suggestions, if not lets get on to scum hunting I am reserving my judgement until more player shows up. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
@alan I think the matter of if/when cops and jailkeepers should out is subject to their judgement. A lot of it depends on who their innocents are, how many innocents they have, and how likely they think they themselves are to be NK'd. But you're suggestions seem reasonable. @cop Don't you dare let us lynch you without claiming your checks. @jailkeeper I only recently realized that jailkeeper can prevent kills by jailkeeping the last mafia. So, the person you jailkept N2 is confirmed townie, and the person you jailkept N1 is likely townie. Make sure to read zelblade's post explaining it and PM a coach or the hosts if you don't fully understand the rules. I didn't know about the ability to block kills, and this is quite important. The jailkeeper functions as combination of medic and cop now. Also, don't you dare let us lynch you without claiming your night actions @everyone check your PMs Strongly consider claiming a RB if you were RB'd. The only downside to claiming is the risk of exposing a jailkeeper. @golden Is it just me or are you claiming scum with this quote? Sorry if you've already addressed this somewhere. On June 15 2012 06:27 O.Golden_ne wrote: Looks like i'm going to have to do a little defence before the end of this day I'm not really impressed with the case on me, if i get bussed off by the mafia and you see i flip scum i ask you consider HeavonEarth as a prime candidate or lynch. I'll be doing some thinking about lynch candidates and I'll post my thoughts before sleeping. I want to hear some opinions on unforgiven. | ||
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I did not go through his filter, but I think the sample size is really small, and I agree on bandwagon theory on him being an easy target to attack for a mislynch. @sciberbia I want to hear some opinions on Don't feel obligated to response to this, but this reminds me of Crossfire's case against you. I will go into your history now. | ||
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
Unlike everyone else in the game, unforgiven has hardly any filter to analyse. He is a lurker in every sense of the word. In addition, I think s0lstice's words have a lot of weight now that he is dead. He had some good analysis on unforgiven, especially regarding moderator actions, and the timing of the moderators asking for night actions. Notice that unforgiven has already given an excuse to be away for the next 3 days. He has an established excuse to keep lurking. And unlike everyone else who is active in this game, unforgiven's filter isn't going to get much bigger, he isn't going to slip like an active scum slips. Notice that we are already out of good lynch targets, me aside. Town is already starting to point fingers at sciberbia, who was, up until the end of Day 2, one of the strongest townies in the game. An unforgiven lynch of s0lstice makes sense. N1 he lynched a potential blue, because all the strongest townies had a bad read on him. N2, he lynches the townie who made the strongest case against him. I realize that coming from the most suspicious person in the game at the moment, my words won't mean much. At this point in time, with strong townie reads on everybody and no solid scum leads, I feel my best move at this point is to lynch the lurker. I realize that I gave a half-hearted case against golden after trackd00r bled blue. I also added my thoughts on milton possibly being scum after sciberbia brought it up. Both of my arguments have been discredited, and also ignored. My morale took a huge hit after trackd00r died. I don't have any more faith in my play. Here's the question that I'm asking myself: When I don't have any good scum reads, who is more dangerous scum in the end game? A lurker, or a contributing player? s0lstice's case against unforgiven makes sense to me. Since I know I am town, I already know that we're in a situation where mafia performed an early bus or even double bus. Given that, it seems that the weak cases made by scum against unforgiven, along with unforgiven/mouldyjeb not being modkilled TWICE, makes him the more likely suspect. Second, I would go after Milton, as the timing on bussing his potential scum teammates makes sense. I will finish my post by simply saying this. You can believe me or not. If you don't believe me it will cost you a mislynch (of me) to find out. If for some reason the voting is not in a majority at the end of the day, I will change my vote to lynch the most popular candidate in order to prevent a NL, as that would be even worse for town than a mislynch of me. Until then: ##vote unforgiven_ve | ||
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
PLEASE come online and post more. I doubt he is scum. *The way he misses his votes seem careless enough. I think killing s0Lstice is a very good choice. *The mods would have just ask for night actions in the scum quick topic if they were the ones not posting actions, assuming mods can post there Are mods able to post on mafia quick topic if they really needed to? @suki To me, a suki night kill of s0Lstice makes more sense, especially seeing how you immediately talk about his case. During the night, you supported 2 cases, one on Milton and one on Golden.You even commented on MJ/unforgiven here: Both HeavOnEarth and roflwaffle were on Mouldyjeb's case since Day 1. Highly highly doubt that they would double bus their own teammate that early. Read: unforgiven very lurky. Possibly town, possibly scum, but can't analyse due to lack of posts. He looks more townie due to mafia double bus early Day 1. You seems to change your stance very quickly, and you're currently attacking the easiest target right now based on the most recent dead guy's story. You just slipped the same way rolfwaffle did: Here's the question that I'm asking myself: When I don't have any good scum reads, who is more dangerous scum in the end game? IMO, when I don't have any good scum reads, I will judge who is more scummy/townie and do the process of elimination. Read their filter, and look for clues like:
Of course there are many more. If I still have no reads, I revert and try to stay neutral, and reevaluate everyone based on new interactions. Call them out, get their reaction. Like I said in rolfwaffle's "The nail in the coffin" case, only Scums have the motivation to look it this way: Who is more dangerous if left alive Suki, I made a case against both you and rolf based on far sketched logic and knee-jerk defense. I later defended you to death and stated there is no way Suki and Rolf can be partners. I would hate to be wrong again changing for changing my mind the third time, but I can't ignore my own reads and stays stubborn. For all fairness, here are some few points that is for suki:
However, I don't think it out weights your "scumminess", give your slip. Now you have lost your last supporter, which I assume scum Suki would want to keep alive if there is any chance for her to escape a lynch. I would feel like a dumbass getting the wrong reads on you 3 times, but your lynch is unavoidable now, if you are the last mafia, I suggest you to out with it already, I won't change my mind this time till you spill green, that's when you are lynched. Do you concede as the last mafia? | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
alan is confirmed vigilante. crossfire is surely town. Both confirmed scum tried damn hard to get him lynched. Also, he calls out roflwaffles early in N1. golden is almost surely town. HeavOnEarth spent most of D1 attacking him, and I really can't see an inexperienced/unconfident scum taking that route. i think miltonkram is probably town+ Show Spoiler + I still think it's possible that he is mafia only because there is no extremely strong evidence to the contrary. But it's unlikely. First of all, his attack on HeavOnEarth D1 has to be counted in his favor. He made some solid contributions to getting HeavOnEarth lynched. Next, it also seems out of character for him to NK austinmcc. I'd really have expected him to NK me or s0Lstice. Finally, his whole filter has a pretty townie vibe. So, I think miltonkram is probably town I'm leaning town on suki+ Show Spoiler + I made a case on her during D2 and here is what I listed as suspicious about her: -- her first case on trackd00r and how she backed down on it -- her stances on alan -- her stances on MJ and crossfire -- scummy defense of HeavOnEarth -- one of her comments on me -- accuses trackd00r N1 when roflwaffles was more suspicious I still think this is all suspicious. On D1, she contributed toward a possible mislynch of alan or trackd00r, didn't do anything on the cases of MJ or crossfire, and delayed more than anything the correct lynch of HeavOnEarth. However, I'm getting the same feeling with her as I did before we mislynched trackd00r. That while there is a lot of circumstancial evidence aginst her, there isn't any truly conclusive evidence, and it's possible she is just a victim of circumstance. In my mind, there are a few really good pieces of evidence that suki is town: NK of austinmcc+ Show Spoiler + I just really don't see suki making this NK. I don't think the mafia coach would have suggested this NK to suki, and I highly doubt she would have proposed the idea on her own. Not only does it seem out of character to make such an odd choice of NK, but I think I am right in saying suki was being collectively viewed as one of the most suspicious people during N1. She would need to get mislynches on people seen as scummier than her. And austinmcc could potentially have been subject to a mislynch. I truly feel that suki would have NK'd s0Lstice, myself, miltonkram, or alan. Finally, suki has been very active this entire game, and I'm sure that if she were mafia, she'd be active in the mafia QT as well. I don't think she'd have the mods panicking that she wouldn't get the NK in. So I think the whole NK of austinmcc is very good evidence in favor of suki being town. refusal to give up and general townie vibe+ Show Spoiler + At several points over the last couple days, suki has looked sure to be next on the lynch list. Especially when myself and s0Lstice were both attacking her as the number 1 target. Yet she has if anything grown more active. I don't think she'd be putting such an effort into the game if she knew it was pretty much over. Also, the language of her posts have read as increasingly townie to me throughout the game. I don't think she'd come off as this townie to me if she were mafia. So, I am going to look past the circumstancial evidence, and conclude that I'm leaning town on suki I think unforgiven_ve is very likely mafia + Show Spoiler + the NK of austinmcc+ Show Spoiler + In case you guys haven't noticed by now, I really like to analyze NKs. Especially when we are down to 1 mafia calling all the shiots The thing I like most about this case is that the NK of austinmcc really fits here. I honestly would have expected unforgiven to NK miltonkram or s0Lsice, but it wouldn't be out of character for him to completely ignore the mafia QT and NK austinmcc. He is very sure of himself. He also tried to get some opinions on austinmcc during N1: On June 16 2012 03:09 Unforgiven_ve wrote: In case i die, my 2 "best" reads (so far) are austincc and roflwaffles55. They were trying to push a lynch on Crossfire, seeing as this wasnt working they decided a Bus from roflwaffles55 and austin will kept his target "just in case". On June 16 2012 05:57 Unforgiven_ve wrote: to sciberbia and s0lstice, you guys being very good analyst and posters. i want you please read austincc's filter, be in his place, he is(should be) pretty confident about his posting skills, the avoiding of the Heaven issue, he kept his vote on crossfire and relys on his defense/persuassive skills. On June 16 2012 06:04 Unforgiven_ve wrote: ebwop: i want to point out im not making a conclusive acussation on austin, i just want you guys to analize a little how he is playing. It makes a lot of sense for mafia to try to gauge the town's opinion on a target before NK'ing him. If there is a lot of suspicion towards austinmcc, unforgiven surely wouldn't want to kill him. s0Lstice said that his "cursory opinion was that austinmcc was town" and I didn't comment until the very end of the night (also with a townie read). So it makes sense that unforgiven would then shoot austinmcc (looks green to s0Lstice; nobody else jumped on the oppurtunity to attack austin; presumably looked blue to unforgiven) Look at what unforgiven says. He puts austinmcc in his top two, explicitly asks for the opinions of influential townies, and then pointing out that his accusation is not conclusive, but he just wants to see our analysis. Makes perfect sense if he is considering NK'ing austinmcc. Another thing that fits with this theory: On June 16 2012 03:09 Unforgiven_ve wrote: In case i die, my 2 "best" reads (so far) are austincc and roflwaffles55. They were trying to push a lynch on Crossfire, seeing as this wasnt working they decided a Bus from roflwaffles55 and austin will kept his target "just in case". We still have 6 more hours till night ends right? Looks like he is holding off on the NK and just wants to make sure he doesn't miss the deadline. Finally, the scrambling of the mods to get all the night actions makes a lot of sense for unforgiven. He doesn't do a lot of communicating, in thread or out. I'm not sure he'd even have went to the mafia QT after replacing MJ. And he was busy/lurky all night. AND it looks like he was waiting until the last second to decide if austinmcc was a good NK. Extreme lurkiness+ Show Spoiler + I am generally a bit soft on lurkers. But, all the active players are giving me a pretty good townie vibe. This is when it really makes sense to lynch a lurker. Lynch somebody who hasn't been working hard to earn your trust all game with contributions to town. Lynch someone whose filter is so small, you can't tell whether their posts are scummy or not. 6 out of 7 of the remaining players have given town many, many posts to analyze for possible scummy play. But none of them look particularly scummy. So you lynch the 1 guy that has refused to give you anything to analyze. MJ/unforgiven. Also, I could totally see both MJ and unforgiven intentionally lurking. MJ has lurked as townie in past and been mislynched for it. So maybe he thought he'd lurk again in the hopes we'd assume he's town. And if unforgiven were mafia, I could see him a) not wanting to put much effort into a game where he is outnumbered 8 to 1 b) making the decision to try to lurk for a win Not getting modkilled+ Show Spoiler + I think this is some decent evidence against him. His situation was different than crossfire's. He didn't show much interest in actually playing. If he were townie, I suspect he would be modkilled. D1 bussing with MJ+ Show Spoiler + I think s0Lstice covered this pretty well. The bussing of MJ on D1 was pretty weak (and wishy/washy) and didn't make it much more likely that MJ would get lynched. Let's roughly rank some potential buses on how much they actually contributed toward getting their target killed: -- s0Lstice on HeavOnEarth (confirmed not bus) -- alan on HeavOnEarth -- sciberbia on roflwaffles (yes I'm biased  )-- alan on roflwaffles -- sciberbia on HeavOnEarth -- miltonkram on HeavOnEarth -- HeavOnEarth on golden -- roflwaffles on crossfire -- HeavOnEarth on crossfire -- suki on HeavOnEarth -- golden on HeavOnEarth -- crossfire on roflwaffles -- unforgiven on roflwaffles I'm sure I've missed some, and the ranking isn't really important. What's important is the perspective: where do the potential buses of HeavOnEarth/roflwaffles on MJ rank? At the very bottom. Maybe right above unforgiven on roflwaffles. They did not contribute much at all toward actually getting him killed. These buses don't seem nearly as risky as any of the others. HeavOnEarth/roflwaffles didn't have a lot of thread influence to begin with. And their attacks on MJ were hardly committed, as s0Lstice pointed out. So it was wrong of me to clear MJ based on these weak attacks. claiming VT+ Show Spoiler + Minor point imo. Here is miltonkram's post on it: On June 19 2012 08:44 Miltonkram wrote: What purpose is there in claiming VT? If a player is vanilla they should be happy to take a bullet for our blue roles. Claiming vanilla does nothing for town. What does it do? Firstly, it makes it less suspicious when Unforgiven isn't shot during a night cycle. Secondly, it keeps Unforgiven from committing completely to information. Any actions a VT takes have the built in defense, "but I didn't have complete information." ... There is absolutely no reason for VT to claim VT. Lynch this guy. s0Lstice thought he was mafia+ Show Spoiler + First of all, s0Lstice is a pretty smart dude. And he was townie. And now he's dead. s0Lstice wasn't the perfect NK for mafia. He was a likely subject of protection from medic/jailkeeper. Additionally, he didn't look blue at all. Additionally, if unforgiven were hypothetically NOT mafia, having s0Lstice around for D3 would help to push another mislynch. So why did he die? The NK of s0Lstice makes perfect sense if Unforgiven is mafia. Do you really think unforgiven would be able to avoid getting lynched today if s0Lstice were still in the game? I doubt it. In conclusion, I think unforgiven is likely the last mafia. ##Vote unforgiven_ve | ||
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Unforgiven_ve
Venezuela1232 Posts
I promise i will read all of the thread tomorrow and have a answer for you. Like this days, i just got home  . Sorry for not being of any use , for now i just cant tell you im not mafia, im just a vanilla townie. | ||
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
On June 19 2012 13:14 alan133 wrote: @suki To me, a suki night kill of s0Lstice makes more sense, especially seeing how you immediately talk about his case. During the night, you supported 2 cases, one on Milton and one on Golden.You even commented on MJ/unforgiven here: You seems to change your stance very quickly, and you're currently attacking the easiest target right now based on the most recent dead guy's story. I realize that I am bouncing around now. I think it has to do with just losing all faith in my own judgement, in addition to no one's really listening to me anyways. I still want to post my reads, still want to try to contribute my thoughts when people bring up cases. I still want to believe I can help push for a victory, instead of crawling into a hole and disappearing for the rest of the game because no one will believe me. You just slipped the same way rolfwaffle did: IMO, when I don't have any good scum reads, I will judge who is more scummy/townie and do the process of elimination. Read their filter, and look for clues like:
Of course there are many more. If I still have no reads, I revert and try to stay neutral, and reevaluate everyone based on new interactions. Call them out, get their reaction. Like I said in rolfwaffle's "The nail in the coffin" case, only Scums have the motivation to look it this way: Who is more dangerous if left alive No, and actually I distinctly thought of rofl's slip when I wrote that. The thing is, the situation is different now. When rofl slipped, it was Day 1 and there weren't many cases to be made. He made a list of who was most dangerous to keep alive when there was a clear chance of hunting scum. I feel that this case is different because pretty much everyone can be read as town. The case against me has been getting stronger and stronger, and even though there have been cases that have been made against Milton, Golden and even sciberbia, the case against me remains the only strong one (aside from unforgiven, whose is increasingly coming to people's attention). The thing is, I'm town. I know this, even if no one else knows this. And if I'm town and everyone looks like town to everyone else, then there's a problem. The problem is no one will look particularly scummy once I am mislynched. In a situation like mine, where no one looks scummy, wouldn't you agree that a lurker is extremely dangerous? If the lurker is a mafia, then town will rip itself apart trying to find the last mafia while the lurker gets a free ride simply because their short filter looks mostly townie. On the other hand, if the lurker gets taken out, all the ones who remain are players who have been active throughout the game. It's much easier to find scummy behaviour in an active player's filter. It's much easier to analyse the night kills as well. In short, my words may seem similar to rofl's but the meaning that they carry is different. In addition, my perspective is unique, because only I know my own alignment. So if you think I'm guilty, then your perspective is everyone looks town except suki, therefore she must be the last scum. I can't argue that perspective, but I can implore you to still consider other options rather than pat yourselves on the back as if the game will be over once you lynch me. Now you have lost your last supporter, which I assume scum Suki would want to keep alive if there is any chance for her to escape a lynch. I would feel like a dumbass getting the wrong reads on you 3 times, but your lynch is unavoidable now, if you are the last mafia, I suggest you to out with it already, I won't change my mind this time till you spill green, that's when you are lynched. Do you concede as the last mafia? The case on unforgiven has merit. In addition, if unforgiven remains alive after today, he may continue to remain alive as the game progresses, because his play isn't going to look any scummier if he continues lurking. I'm still going to be here. The case against me will still remain, and grow bigger as I continue to post. Basically, if you think I'm scummy, still have a really good look at unforgiven and at the case against him and decide how likely it is that he's scum. Then, vote for who you think is most likely to bleed red. But please consider other cases, not just mine, because the game won't end if I die. | ||
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
Damn it. I wrote an entire post and accidently hit refresh. When I hit back my text was no longer there, but below is more or less my post: I totally missed s0Lstice's case on Unforgiven. Back off my mind he reads Unforgiven town, and if anything he probably based it after you are lynched and flipped town. If that is true, you were jumping back and forth, thus increasing my suspicion towards you, ultimately leading me to think you are actually the final mafia. Now that I read it, I know that is not the case. He actually based his case on some observer's post, and it has been edited out. [green]May I know about the original context of Xatalos's post? I feel kinda unfair because it's information that I can never ever get, and now s0Lsdice is gone I couldn't ask him. I am currently guessing this is the original context: + Show Spoiler + Mods not banning Unforgiven/MJ for missing a vote twice I am convinced by his case. However, I am weary of his NK. It seems too obvious to me and can be used easily by another scum to push the lynch on Unforgiven. However, like s0Lstice's said, "the most obvious shit is the shit".. I mean, you know what I meant. Side Note: Here's the question that I'm asking myself: When I don't have any good scum reads, who is more dangerous scum in the end game? Now that I think from a townie Suki POV, it seems like you are confused because you can't even think of another scummier player than yourself. You got town read on everyone else, and everyone else is pointing their finger towards you. I seriously don't want to make another read on you anymore. I jumped 4 times, starting with linking you and rolf, then defending you because I don't see my link, and back to accusing you, and now I am- Never mind, useless information. @Unforgiven_ve Please respond to your accusations. If you are blue please claim your night actions, now. If you think you can stop the lynch without replying: ##Vote Unforgiven_ve Things I noticed:
We also cleared Unforgiven_ve based on one thing: MJ/Unforgiven was bussed by 2 scums day 1 and it is "unlikely". However, like sciberbia said, there is no "danger" of getting MJ lynched. I wrote a long case on Unforgiven, but many of the idea was gotten from reading s0Lstice and scribebria's case. I just wanted to point this out: + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 23:18 roflwaffles55 wrote: Hey mouldyjeb, glad to see you posting! Do you have any other evidence or reasons beyond miltons lighthearted attitude at the beginning? State them if you do, as well as any suspicions against me! Don't keep them to yourself! Also, what are your opinions on the cases so far, like mine against alan133 and suki's against trackd00r? I ask these because that was a fairly lackluster post when it comes to your first of the game and id like you to bring some fresh opinions to the table. While this doesn't seem important, at that time I was thinking, why was rolf being so friendly at MJ. MJ was echoing exactly what I said, and his case on me was that I echoed scibebria when I debunks suki. This may not hold merit since rolf is a scum: he could done it just to "buddy up" a townie. I see very little of Unforgiven and I want to see his responses under pressure. @If Unforgiven was not Scum I know I am drawing a lot of speculations here. But what if Unforgiven was not scum? Townie should not feel demotivated since he lurked and hardly contribute. I also think Unforgiven has a chance to flip blue, so unforgiven, if you are blue, Please out with your night actions before you are lynched My policy is to stay neutral If Unforgiven is Blue + His lurked. Fits in a blue situation + Mod not killing him for not voting - However, he is generally not helpful and never came out with a stance - His opening post randomly attacks one target Unless a blue backs him up (be careful cops, there may be 2 godfathers), or he provided a satisfying defense, I will not change- + Show Spoiler + nevermind. | ||
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
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