EPTOn June 18 2012 09:03 zelblade wrote:
Warning to unforgiven_ve for failing to vote.
Warning to unforgiven_ve for failing to vote.
sorry! just got home
Newbie Mini Mafia XVII - Page 22
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Unforgiven_ve
Venezuela1232 Posts
sorry! just got home | ||
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
Plus people have pretty much cleared golden and unforgiven, which were the two people I suggested as most suspicious. What this means is, we are looking at risky mafia play early on day 1. Maybe even an extremely convincing bus of a teammate to gain townie credibility. I beseech you guys, even if you are 100% sure I am the last mafia, you have to have to have to keep analysing for the last mafia, because I am town and when you lynch me I will bleed green. Don't waste the entire day patting yourselves on the back for catching scum suki cuz you'll be unpleasantly surprised come nightfall =[ | ||
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
I don't know. Now that you put it that way, it seems so unlikely. HeavOnEarth doesn't seem like a sophisticated player that would do something like that. Golden also doesn't seem like he'd be around enough to orchestrate that sort of thing. You can lynch me, but it's not going to do town any good. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
Frankly though I think you are lying through your teeth  | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I think that suki is most likely to be the last scum. But if she flips town, the next person I'd want to lynch would be miltonkram. I don't think he's especially scummy, but he is not at the almost-definite-town status at which I place every player besides him and suki. I'm writing this case against him because nobody else seems to want to lynch him, and I'm worried he could survive to the end of the game as mafia. First of all, I grant that his playstyle seems similar to his town from NMM XV, and that his filter gives off a townie vibe. But that's not conclusive evidence. Not the same level townie-evidence as for people like crossfire, golden, or MJ, who were mercilessly attacked by 2 confirmed scum on D1. miltonkram's stances during D1+ Show Spoiler + ordering is roughly chronological trackdoor - neutral suki - suspicious crossfire - suspicious alan - "fairly decent" case against him roflwaffles - suspicious, but then backs off MJ - #1 on scumdar alan - very suspicious, but then backs off HeavOnEarth - would vote, then votes His suspicions on roflwaffles don't do anything to clear him in my mind. Nobody was really suspicious of roflwaffles at that point, and miltonkram backed off his suspicions reasonably quickly, so roflwaffles wasn't really in any danger based on miltonkram's actions. Otherwise, he throws suspicion onto a bunch of people that are town (assuming milton is last mafia): suki, crossfire, alan (kinda), MJ. This isn't damning but isn't exactly comforting either. Helping to Lynch HeavOnEarth Miltonkram does contribute to the lynch of HeavOnEarth, by putting HeavOnEarth into his "top 3" after only me and s0Lstice have accused him, and then applying the third vote to HeavOnEarth. This is certainly evidence in favor of miltonkram being town, but I could maybe see him pulling the bus as mafia. It would honestly be the smart move. And it wouldn't be the riskiest bus ever or anything. He originally listed HeavOnEarth as 1 of a list of 3, and it was after s0Lstice and I accused him already -- pretty safe townies to side with, but a bandwaggon of 3 doesn't assure a lynch. To me, a miltonkram bus of HeavOnEarth seems by far the most likely out of all possible busses. Putting the third vote on HeavOnEarth would definitely be a ballsy move, but maybe he judged it was the best choice. And if he is mafia, it probably was. Also here's some food for thought: On June 17 2012 11:17 Miltonkram wrote: Maybe this is too WIFOMy, but I feel like the safe play for scum would have been to have one player voting HeavOnEarth in order to gain some of the town cred in case he got lynched and one player voting someone else in order to keep a little momentum towards a possible mislynch. This isn't a strong point, so my opinions aren't the only things hinging on this. about the NK (worth reading I think)+ Show Spoiler + @s0Lstice First of all, as a point of fact, austinmcc did voice suspicions of suki during D1, so your logic as to why suki might have killed austinmcc doesn't hold. This is the the second time I've gotten the feeling you don't thoroughly read my posts. Tsk Tsk. Maybe it's a sign I shouldn't write so much :p Anyway, I've been thinking and thinking and thinking about the NK. It doesn't make a lot of sense no matter who ordered it. + Show Spoiler + But actually now that I think about it, all of the sensible NK targets voiced suspicions of suki: me, s0Lstice, alan, miltonkram. So maybe suki would have found some reason to kill austinmcc. Anyway, the best explanation I have come up with for the hit on austinmcc is that the last mafia thought that they could avoid getting lynched as long as there was no cop. And for whatever reason they thought austinmcc might be cop. Miltonkram is someone who can reasonably hope to avoid being lynched without a cop. But he was honestly a pretty good cop check last night. So maybe that's why he picked austinmcc over me/s0Lstice/alan. austinmcc does seem most likely to be cop out of those 4. Also, miltonkram was gone almost the entire night. Him being scum would totally fit into my theory about scum not submitting their NK until the last minute. Also look at this post from miltonkram. I found this to be really bad advice the second I read it. The point of a breadcrumb is for people not to notice it. Maybe he was fishing for the cop? On June 16 2012 07:34 Miltonkram wrote: EBWOP:Breadcrumb your actions right at the end of the night. That way scum don't have a chance to catch your breadcrumb before they send in their night actions. Finally, this isn't exactly related to Miltonkram, but I think it's quite possible that the last mafia is roleblocker and RB'd austin last night. This would work out great for mafia if austin was vigi/cop/veteran. And it doesn't let us know the presence of a roleblocker. Maybe the mafia felt austin looked blue, and that's why he died? IN SUMMARY -- I am for lynching suki, and then miltonkram if she flips town -- This isn't so much because miltonkram looks scummy, but that everyone else looks townie -- I am obsessed with figuring out why austinmcc died, and I have a possible explanation P.S. Every single time suki posts, I feel worse and worse about lynching her. But I think she is the only sensible choice. P.P.S. @Miltonkram don't feel obliged to write a defense post to this. There's honestly not much to explain as most of your actions make good sense for a townie. Assuming we don't win D3, you'd have to convince me somebody else is more scummy than you for me not to push you D4. Maybe you could explain the breadcrumbing comment though. | ||
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
Both roflwaffle and heavonearth do not strike me as that sophisticated of players. Thus, I don't think that there was any plan for cooperation from the start between the two dead scum and our last remaining one. The most likely scenario is that Scum #3 is a strong player, who decided that it would be in his best interest to bus both of his teammates early to gain extreme townie cred. This strategy worked well in XV with Xatalos taking the win, although he did make some slips early on that could have exposed him if people had looked into him more in depth. Of course, an early bus or even double bus is so risky for mafia that it seems really unlikely, but that is the situation we are in now. It doesn't matter if you believe me now. When I flip, you can come back to these words and think carefully. --- The most important lesson to be learned in mafia XV was that the pattern of night kills, and townie's impressions of night kills, was very important to discovering that Xatalos was the last mafia. If player X was heavily tunneling player Y, and player X gets shot, does that mean player Y was scum? or maybe thats just what scum wants you to think. The town attitude in XV was that decyphering the meaning behind night kills was so WIFOMy that it wasn't worth doing. This lead to mafia being able to shoot the strongest player every night without fear of having the night shot analysed. At the very end, Xatalos shot the one person who was against him, thus securing a win because he knew the other two remaining players wouldn't analyse the shot and realize that the shot only made sense if he made it, not the #1 suspect at the time. We saw austinmcc get shot N1. Someone will get shot N2. These shots have meaning, and just because it's WIFOMy doesn't mean its not worth discussing. If the last remaining mafia was bold enough to start the game with a double bus, they most likely won't slip, and they might not even have any suspicious behaviour if they are good enough. The last remaining source of information is the pattern of NK's. Don't forget that. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I just have to say, if you are the last mafia, you are a total jerk :p You're making my life way more stressful than it needs to be right now. Also, if/when it becomes clear that we are lynching you, please claim your 2 night actions if you are blue. You're analysis about a "strong player" seems to suggest I or s0Lstice am mafia. I have to admit there is logic to what you are saying. It's more likely that the sneaky third scum would bus the 2 dead newbie confirmed scum, than that the 2 dead newbie confirmed scum would bus the third, sneaky, alive scum. That is why I am most suspicious of miltonkram after you. And I'd have to consider s0Lstice if both you and miltonkram flip town. But only after getting out of the hospital and recovering from my heart attack. Anyway, I'll be going to bed soon and might not be posting for a while. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
If Milton is scum, the second bus was easy as hell. By the time he chimed in, rofl's death was essentially a foregone conclusion. Then really, the only one he bussed was heavonearth. Bussing one of your teammates when an influential townie is calling for their death is a logical play. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
Also Milton is going to be very surprised to see all this when he gets back from work. Hi Milton. | ||
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zelblade
Australia901 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
Secondly, she gains town cred for appearing aggressive even if she doesn't get the lynch. It seems like a win/win scenario for scum unless of course someone makes the analysis I'm making now. Milton seems focused on how I get town cred for getting aggressive. Town cred is something that scum think of a lot but town don't really care about. Notice how Milton is trying to give himself credibility with the last sentence for pointing out the possible scum-motivation behind my posts. + Show Spoiler + Miltonkram: roflwaffles55 I'm suspicious of this guy based on two of his posts. First one is a response to s0Lstice/sciberbia: Notice the eager to please tone of his post. I'm looking at it as a possible scumslip. His 2nd suspicious post: Notice how self-conscious he is in this post, especially in that last line. I realize that several players weren't interested in his case, but there is absolutely no harm in keeping pressure on a player until they give you a satisfactory defense. Essentially he backs down from his pressure based on a tiny reprimand from Crossfire. It seems like he's trying to keep himself out of the spotlight. roflwaffle: You've defeated yourself in your own argument against me, with the explanation as to why I backed down on alan133. I backed down because I hadn't received any support towards my case. You also defeated yourself by saying that I'm trying to keep myself out of the spotlight, if I wanted that, I wouldn't have been the third person to post a case, let alone one I knew would net me a bunch of flak. I made the case to put pressure on someone that was lacking any real opinion, whether because he felt that there wasn't enough data to form one, or because he was hiding from the spotlight himself. The evidence or suspicions that you have brought up can be answered so easily I'm not sure why you didn't come up with them yourself. Miltonkram: @ roflwaffles Ok, I see what you're saying. I thought you were completely backing off of alan even though you've made a decent case against him. I still don't like the fact that you took your vote off of him based on a wrist-slap from Crossfire, but I guess I misunderstood your intent. Since you're still pursuing your case on alan the unvote seems less scummy. As far as alan133 is concerned I think you may have something. He's put very little pressure on anyone. When he does pressure he seems wishy-washy as hell. Miltonkram had a little back and forth between himself and roflwaffle. Notice how easily roflwaffle deflects Milton's case against him, as if the arguments Milton made were meant to be deflected. Now notice how milton just gives him the green light. However... Milton says, "I thought you were completely backing off of alan... but I guess I misunderstood your intent. Since you're still pursuing your case on alan the unvote seems less scummy." I don't see how Milton could have taken that away from rofl's post. Rofl straight up said he backed down. There was no mention of still pursuing his case against roflwaffle. Milton seems to be justifying rofl's actions for him, while saying that rofl seems less scummy. In the same post, he renews rofl's case against alan. "I think you may have something." Soft support of his teammate? if suki and roflwaffles were both scum they were essentially going all in on bussing HeavOnEarth blowing any chance that town mislynches D1. Blowing such a chance seems like a pretty gutsy play so maybe she learned well from Xatalos, but I'm not entirely convinced. This is a possible slip. It describes his behaviour perfectly. He also references Xatalos' play from XV, meaning he's perfectly aware that this was a valid strategy to do this game. Maybe this is too WIFOMy, but I feel like the safe play for scum would have been to have one player voting HeavOnEarth in order to gain some of the town cred in case he got lynched and one player voting someone else in order to keep a little momentum towards a possible mislynch. sciberbia pointed this out, but it happens in the same post as the quote above. It describes his play perfectly. | ||
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zelblade
Australia901 Posts
When a scum is dead he is not allowed to contribute in the scum chat. No, each night the scum team decides on one person to send to kill. This means that scum can only kill one person each night (in this setup, larger ones are different). If a scum gets jailed and they are the one the team decides to send for the kill, yes the kill will fail. Yes both vigs will lose their bullets. | ||
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
sciberbia on Milton's bussing of HeavOnEarth: Milton only puts down his suspicions after both s0lstice and sciberbia have labelled HeavOnEarth as suspicious. And he does it as a 1 of 3 list. s0lstice on Milton: "If Milton is scum, the second bus was easy as hell. By the time he chimed in, rofl's death was essentially a foregone conclusion" | ||
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
It doesn't make sense for a scum suki to go full out for a mislynch, either that of Alan on Day1 or Trackd00r Day 2. As you can see, the fallout of being wrong is really really bad. Not only that, but I hadn't even set up 'possibly suspicious' players to go after my mislynches failed. If you really think that I could play a strong mafia game, you should also believe that I'd be good enough to be able to gracefully recover when things go awry. You can, however, easily find townie motivation behind my tunnelling. As you saw, both of my targets turned out to be blues. They tried to keep out of the spotlight and avoid making strong reads, and it was for these reasons that I targeted them. With alan, I was successful and his contributions convinced me to change my vote. I may not have been good at hunting scum, but I was good at digging out the non-committal behaviour of blues, I guess. | ||
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Crossfire99
United States1529 Posts
On June 15 2012 14:24 Crossfire99 wrote: Ok now let's analyze this lynch. Solstice drew the first blood with these + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 10:07 s0Lstice wrote: Alright, so I went filter spelunking and explored every nook and cranny. My general impression at this moment is one of disappointment. I know it's rare to get good reads on day 1, but some people's filters are incredibly barren. If I had to lynch right now, here would be my suspects. HeavOnEarth He's pretty lurky. His hard stance is on Golden, where he builds a case on the poor guy's intro post. Look at the case: Think of it like this. Scum will be making cases against people on day 1...they have to. I looked at all the cases people have made, and this one stank especially bad. It's built entirely around a hello post. It has a very artificial feel to it. Also, he just posted this: Townies always feel the pressure of the ticking clock. Half of our time being gone doesn't seem to trouble him. He hasn't really bothered to comment on what's been going on in the thread outside of his own reads. He's been on Mouldy Jeb's case as well. Here's some more recent(!) material: Confused? Me too. I think this dude has a chance at flipping scum. On June 15 2012 00:50 s0Lstice wrote: Some housekeeping stuff first.. I am removing alan133 from my scum list. The main thing that had me suspicious was his strong-arm defense, but everything following that has been fine. I like that he is holding himself accountable for his style, and I want to see what he can do when not under pressure. austin and suki have commented on crossfire99, and I have to say I agree. I was planning on wrighting a post similar to what suki has done. The cogent point is that he has long bouts of inactivity when he is both scum and town. He should get the same level of suspicion that every lurker gets, but nothing special beyond that I feel. His filter right now is pretty garbagey, and hard to get a read on. I wouldn't be upset if we lynched him, but I think we can do better. Here is better: HeavOnEarth. Nothing has happened to change my initial opinion on him for the better. In fact, him buddying up to sciberbia in his latest post makes him look worse. Go read my case if you missed it. I'm not the only one to see him as suspicious, so I think there is plenty of traction here. ##vote HeavOnEarth Then alan joins the fun with this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 04:00 alan133 wrote: I see the current pressure are easing off from me. I also realize I has pretty much ignored everyone else except for rolf and suki. @HeavOnEarth His first few points seem disconnected. None of them relates to each other: From FoSing Golden for his opening post, + Show Spoiler + And I thought rofl@me and suki@trap was bad He also state that he is waiting for responses. Upon being debunked on Gold's read, he basically dismiss it similar the way suki has dismissed her case on trap, claiming they are trying to start conversation. In suki's case, this is still believable. Before her case there was no controversy, and very little to talk about. However, when Heave posted on Gold, there were already controversies + Show Spoiler + rolf@me suki@trap Very Suspicious Right now, I find Heav and MJ were the best lynch candidates, and HeavOnEarth appears to be more scummy ##unvote: Suki ##vote: HeavOnEarth I am off to bed, it is 3 am right here. I will get up in 4 hours so we can get a successful lynch. Another refresh reveals more post from crossfire. My opinion on him has not swayed. Next suki comes to the party + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 04:58 suki wrote: HeavOnEarth: Okay, something really really sticks out to me in Heavon's first post, and it's not about golden. It's this particular line: Above, I posted my opinions on Crossfire, where I had gone through pretty much his entire filter in his two previous games, and the big thing I noted was that Crossfire LURKED very hard in his first game as blue, and somewhat lurked in the second game as red. HeavOn clearly is talking about Crossfire's game as blue, 'He was a pretty talkative little townie'. This is clearly wrong. He continues his case against Crossfire later after sciberbia brings it up. This has already been labelled as suspicious. It's a big point against him that he waited until someone else pointed fingers at Crossfire, when he had so early established a read on Crossfire - a fairly in depth read as he had even looked at Crossfire's filters from previous games. The thing is, the case HeavOn makes against crossfire disregards the previous game filters. Crossfire, as mafia, was assertive actively pushed cases against other players. He also lurked quite a bit. HeavOn votes for Golden despite saying that his case against Golden is weak. He doesn't back off however, stating that the response was scummy and that the scummy thing about it was how golden was commenting on the time it would take to make his posts? Seems like a very strained argument to make. I see clear scum motivation in voting for golden. In my previous game as mafia, I harped on Miltonkram for his early vote against sciberbia. Even when my argument was convincingly rebutted, I continued to press my case against him finding any sort of scummy intent I could make up. Why? Because I didn't want to be wishy-washy. HeavOn's case against golden is that golden 'just feels off'. This makes Golden a 'solid lynch' to him. I'm out of time, but that's my insight into HeavOn. I feel that there can definitely be scum motivation behind his posts. I haven't had time to closely look at other people but for now HeavOn is clearly a scummier target than alan. ##unvote alan113 ##vote HeavOnEarth Those three I mentioned above all brought solid analysis and new thoughts on Heavon, so I feel confident in seeing them as town for right now. Then Milton (+ Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 04:59 Miltonkram wrote: Oops, slept in a bit later than I'd planned. s0Lstice, I'm inclined to agree with you. HeavOnEarth looks like the best lynch candidate. Everybody, I'd suggest you take a look at him. His filter is not particularly long, but I think there is enough scummy behavior there to warrant a vote. ##Vote: HeavOnEarth On June 15 2012 05:09 roflwaffles55 wrote: I noticed already that his play was scummy, however I felt like it was the easy way out, I was hoping to nail a more influential scum D1, but I guess that's just new player optimism... If he flips scum, I'm not sure what kind of information we're going to gain from it as his posts don't seem to link him to anyone.. and if he flips town then all we really know is that he was a poor townie. I'll go with the flow because he's fairly blatant with his scumminess (real word?) but I'd like to keep an eye on Crossfire, as well as keeping Mouldy Jeb in mind for a D2 lynch. ##unvote Crossfire99 ##vote HeavOnEarth I'm not sure if I'll be on tonight, I'll do my absolute best to be on in case there's a swing of opinion. On June 15 2012 06:27 O.Golden_ne wrote: in regards to HeavonEarth. In relation to my: a) knowing i'm town. b) Him trying to bus me one the grounds of "seems like a solid case". c) lacklustre contribution and no rebuttle to any arguments. i feel like he see's a bandwagon forming and jumps on straight away. #VOTE: HeavonEarth i still maintain a #FOS on MouldyJeb i still owe the group a comment on Crossfire99 but i honestly dont have time for it before work. On June 15 2012 02:44 roflwaffles55 wrote: I'm going to post as though all of these people are scum, and the impact they have a chance to make if they are left alive. I think it will give a different way of thinking about it. HeavOnEarth His play is quite suspicious and his accusations and suspicions lackluster at best. He could just as easily be an awful townie as scum. Overall he's been fairly ineffectual, but if he's hiding behind a mask of confusion and bad reads, he could be an annoyance as scum later on. I believe that the most lynchable potential scum right now would be Crossfire99. I understand that there are already votes on HeavOnEarth, but if he really is that incompetent at bringing cases to the table, as a scum, why would he try to post them? He is suspicious to me, but not as suspicious as Crossfire. Unless he responds to the accusations in a convincing and collected manner soon, I strongly believe that he should be lynched. ##vote Crossfire99 This is followed by sciberbia's vote + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 07:56 sciberbia wrote: My thoughts on HeavOnEarth: I was originally somewhat suspicious of him for throwing suspicion onto a handful of easy targets, and then becoming wishy/washy about it. He has since made me more suspicious with his response and attitude towards golden. First of all, he admits that his case was "pretty damn bad" and LOL's about it. I see this as slightly scummy. He is being ingratiating and agreeable, rather than firm, objective, and analytic. This is more typical of mafia than of townies. Next HeavOnEarth says that there were no other posts to provoke Golden with. The question I'm left asking myself is: why did HeavOnEarth feel that he had to attack Golden at all? He says it was strong play of him to "accuse lurkers of being scummy", but at the time of HeavOnEarth's accusation, golden didn't look lurky. Golden made 1 post in the first 4 hours of the game, and then HeavOnEarth accused him. 1 decent-sized post in the first 4 hours isn't lurky. Why was HeavOnEarth looking for a reason to "provoke him"? Finally, heavOnEarth refuses to back down from his suspicions of golden, and even ends up voting golden, but doesn't give any good reasons. He just says that golden's posting seems odd. Odd =/= scummy. It looks like he just arbitrarily picked a target to attack at the beginning and now won't back down. Overall, I think he has a good chance of being mafia and I'm happy with lynching him. ##Vote HeavOnEarth Then austin comes in and votes for me with this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 08:28 austinmcc wrote: I think Heavon looks scummy. But his voting took off after he posted that he was going to be gone for auto repairs. And there's been very little pushback. I'm particularly worried by: (1) us going for the guy who basically said "Won't be around to defend myself," and (2) the lack of any pushback against him, when we had multiple targets recently. There could be some bussing going on, but we had a couple other juicy targets, and I wouldn't expect a bus in that situation. At the very least, my stance right now is that he doesn't look good, but the vast majority of the votes and comments on him seem to have occurred after he said he was leaving. I don't want to lynch him today based on that alone. See your comment towards him. Yes, his reads would help town. Yes, he ought to defend himself. But he may actually have been gone these last few hours, and I want to see his response before I lynch him. If it looks bad, there's D2. I think I'm saying the same thing over and over, so I'll knock it off. Apart from those basic statements, I'll note this. He DOES fit into a category of people trying to look like they're scumhunting but not. The 1 post suspicion of Golden, his comment on MJ - his chiming in on crossfire - + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 20:15 HeavOnEarth wrote: @Sciberbia in addition to what u said on crossfire, notice that he 1) only replies when called out. Every message he is replying to someone, not making his own points aside from his opening. 2) Every one of his posts feels like complete filler to me. he is trying to LOOK helpful, without actively contributing anything + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 02:06 Crossfire99 wrote: I agree that we need more information and we get that from pressuring people, but we need to do that smartly. If too many people are throwing around minor accusations all the time, it just confuses the town and allows mafia to sit back and laugh. That is what happened in NMM XIII when I was mafia. Ask austin, he was in it too. On June 14 2012 03:38 Crossfire99 wrote: Yeah Mouldy is acting really weird. He needs to get active to explain himself. Everything he has said so far lacks good reasoning. On June 14 2012 03:50 Crossfire99 wrote: I never said don't vote. I just said be careful about throwing your votes around willy-nilly under the premise that you are going to remove them later. I never even said don't do that. I just don't want someone sticking someone else with a vote for flimsy reasons that ends up sealing a lynch because they couldn't get back in time to change it. That was the entire point of those two sentences. As for the mention of the scum tactic, I'm just saying that sometimes scum can not take part in big discussions later in the day by voting early and then disappearing. I'm just trying to help roflwaffle, by trying to get him to think about taking his vote seriously and having good reasons for whatever he does. If no one holds anyone accountable mafia can just breeze on by. 3) notice his defensive, and meek tone; in addition to his low post count. he's obviously afraid to attract attention to himself 4) he was lurking for a LONGGG time before he finally decided to post . What u thought we all forgot about that? That leaves me with cross. ##Vote: Crossfire99 What I'd ask of everyone is to show me where Crossfire has done any scumhunting. He posted a little, dropped off the face of the earth, came back, responded to everyone's comments towards him, but never even gave us a single read throughout the day. Nobody looked scummy, because he really just didn't comment on ANYONE. I'm confused as to how that can be towny behavior, and he dropped in, spent time responding to all these people, but spent 0 characters doing any kind of hunting himself. Lurking is bad, but you can lurk and contribute when you pop up. HeavOnEarth didn't contribute when he came back. Crossfire didn't contribute when he came back, except addressing our concerns about him. Between the timing of the votes on HeavOn and the lack of any push on him, I'd rather go with Crossfire today. Trackdoor then comes in and votes last with this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 08:52 trackd00r wrote: I was checking Heaven's filter. I must admint that he looks suspicious at this stage of the game. I was expecting from him a more detailed analysis of his play, since he stated that he has more experience in playing mafia. I dislike the fact that he took the most easy target to pressure (golden), instead of trying to outline the other players, He also adds some points against CF, but isn't really big of a deal. Although I share some suspicions with him, I see that he is not contributing at the same level as the rest of us are. I don't really think that it will be that much of a loss if he flips town. If that is the case, he have a whole post history behind us too see who bandwagoned and who tried to hunt down mafia As I don't want a NL, I'll change my vote to heaven. ##Unvote: O.Golden_ne ##Vote: HeavOnEarth I think that leaves everyone except for me and Heavon. I won't even bother quoting Heavon. He just went with a weak vote on Golden and then got lynched. And I missed the lynch for the reasons stated above. Ok. That's all the time I have for now (I should have gone to bed an hour and a half ago, but whatever). I don't know if I'll be back in time before the night ends to post some more thoughts, so consider this my contribution for now. If I survive the lynch, I'll look into roflwaffle's filter and get a better read on him. I encourage you all to do the same and let me know what you think whether you agree or disagree. This only leaves sciberbia. A first run through of his filter makes it seem like he is town. He is active and contributes, but when you look closely there are some things that stick out. I'll start in chronological order to show the progression in his play. His opening posts have content but only in the vein of commenting on others posts. His first post where he lays out his suspicions is this + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 13:02 sciberbia wrote: I've been studying the thread and I currently find these 3 most suspicious: suki, Crossfire99, and HeavOnEarth I've been staring at suki's filter for the last half hour, so I'll dedicate the rest of this post to my case on suki, and detail my thoughts on crossfire and heavonEarth in another post. Here are several reasons why I am suspicious of suki: Her original accusation of trackd00r+ Show Spoiler + suki's original accusation of trackd00r was quite strong. She says: -- This post screams to me that he's trying to be super cautious... -- BUT WAIT! Just ONE post previous to that he says... -- try to take a firm stance, and then you do the most scummy wishy-washy-ness thing ever the very next post. -- ##vote trackd00r She clearly thinks trackd00r has a good chance of being scum, and is interested in making everyone suspicious of him. Keep this in mind for later. Anyway, this original accusation drew my attention for a couple reasons. -- First of all, she twists his words, so her case isn't good -- As austinmcc said, even if trackd00r had contradicted himself, that's not a great scumtell. Mafia don't intentionally promote mafia policies. That's way too obvious. So I think suki is attacking him for a (percieved) confusing stance, not a scumtell. -- We lynched suki last game for being wishy/washy. I could definitely see a mafia suki making a bit of a stretch just to make an early "bold" case, and try to look townie. trackd00r would make a good target of such a case since he is new and his first couple posts were a bit confusing (difficult to read). The way that suki backs off trackd00r+ Show Spoiler + I wasn't too suspicious based on suki's initial accusation. But I really didn't like the way in which she backed down from it. + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 00:06 suki wrote: As has been pointed out, the contradiction isn't as severe as I initially thought it was. ##unvote trackd00r I thought at the very least I could rouse a response from trackd00r, however my case was too weak and I feel that no useful information can be gleamed from people simply agreeing on its flimsiness. Before, she thought there was a severe contradiction. Now, she says that there is still a contradiction, but it isn't that severe. What? I was expecting her to say that she had misread/misunderstood. I still don't see any contradiction at all. Her post suggests that she doesn't want to completely back down from her accusation, but I don't see why she is still suspicious of trackd00r at all. @suki please clarify this To me, the most scummy line in her whole filter is "I thought at the very least I could rouse a response from trackd00r". Reading her original response, she strongly accuses trackd00r and seems very interested in getting him lynched. This line about "at the very least" seems contradictory to that motivation. general attitude in her filter+ Show Spoiler + suki was super excited to play this game and was even more excited at the prospect of playing town. Look through her filter. Her posts so far aren't what I would expect from a town suki. After the initial accusation, everything she has said is bland and uninteresting. I don't think she has yet shared any real insight, or shown a lot of interest in helping town. It feels more like she is going through the motions. how she opens the game+ Show Spoiler + This is pretty circumstancial, so I don't expect many of you to buy into it, but I find the timing of her first two posts odd. First of all, starting the game about 4 hours late is slightly indicative of mafia. Secondly, why does she post a policy response 6 minutes after her first accusation post? She had clearly read the whole thread before posting either. This is all a bit odd to me, and I think it lends credence to the idea that she just wanted to start off boldly to avoid suspicion. The only thing in her filter that gives me a townie feel is her recent statement about finding golden's opening post suspicious, but waiting to comment on it. Overall, I would rate suki as definitely suspicious, based mostly on her accusation of trackd00r and the way she backed down from it. On June 14 2012 10:07 s0Lstice wrote: Alright, so I went filter spelunking and explored every nook and cranny. My general impression at this moment is one of disappointment. I know it's rare to get good reads on day 1, but some people's filters are incredibly barren. If I had to lynch right now, here would be my suspects. HeavOnEarth He's pretty lurky. His hard stance is on Golden, where he builds a case on the poor guy's intro post. Look at the case: Think of it like this. Scum will be making cases against people on day 1...they have to. I looked at all the cases people have made, and this one stank especially bad. It's built entirely around a hello post. It has a very artificial feel to it. Also, he just posted this: Townies always feel the pressure of the ticking clock. Half of our time being gone doesn't seem to trouble him. He hasn't really bothered to comment on what's been going on in the thread outside of his own reads. He's been on Mouldy Jeb's case as well. Here's some more recent(!) material: Confused? Me too. I think this dude has a chance at flipping scum. alan133 There is already suspicion surrounding him, so I won't rehash. The main thing that raises my eyebrows is his defense against rofflwaffles. It was strong, and that was the problem. He was lightly gouged and hit back full force. This can be a sign of fear, or 'something to hide' as waffles put it. Mouldy Jeb There isn't really much of a case here. I went and looked at the Magic:The Gathering mafia, and his style is very similar. His style is dangerous, because it's near impossible to read. There is something to go on with his treatment of rofflwaffles, but that's it. Frankly, I hate the idea of him being around late game. I would vote for any of these three at this moment, but I'm not in love with any of these cases. We had it easy last game thanks to sciberbia. That said, you do the best with the circumstances you have, and lynch the scummiest player. We still have some time, so I hope we can improve our odds. Now for the errata. Austinmcc and Crossfire99 really need to post more. Just awful filters. Sciberbia, I have a mental block where I auto-green you in my mind. I fought it off and you really aren't posting much either. I hope you have something for us soon. On June 14 2012 14:10 sciberbia wrote: As promised, here are my thoughts on crossfire and heavonEarth. crossfire There isn't any one thing that looks super scummy, but nothing in his filter gives me a townie feel, and there are a handful of small things that suggest he is scum: his suspicions on austin+ Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + The bolded part of this post by austin makes me suspicious of him. + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 22:23 austinmcc wrote: I don't read those posts as contradictory, believe the second one clarifies the first and explains that, while he'd consider a NL, the standard is higher than "Town is lynching someone that isn't one of my top couple reads." That said, even if the two statements are entirely contradictory, I don't really see anything scummy in that. More inclined to see contradictions concerning votes and reads as scummy, where someone has stated one thing but then has to take a party line, rather than super early statements concerning a no lynch. There's no agenda to push on that issue. Two completely contradictory statements without reasoning for the change is very suspicious. This is a good way to catch scum. They know the alignment of every person, so they have to make cases that they know are wrong (excluding bussing). This can lead to contradictory posts to make them better fit in with the current town mindset. Austin, why don't you think that contradictory statements are suspicious? This is exactly the kind of D1 case I would expect a scum to make. Austin makes the somewhat peculiar assertion that there is nothing scummy about contradicting yourself on policy during the early game. Whether or not you agree with this statement is irrelevant. The point is, what does a mafia Austin stand to gain by making a statement like this? Is he planning on contradicting himself later? No. It's very likely that he actually believes what he said so the fact that he said it isn't indicative of his alignment. I don't think Austin's statement is scummy at all. But, it is definitely a statement that a mafia could attack, because it seems illogical. It's easy to criticize. And that's what crossfire did. This is the kind of thing mafia do D1: attack people for seemingly illogical statements even though it isn't a scumtell. Like the mafia's attacks on Vivax from last game. his stance on Mouldy Jeb+ Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 03:38 Crossfire99 wrote: Yeah Mouldy is acting really weird. He needs to get active to explain himself. Everything he has said so far lacks good reasoning. s0Lstice, an influential player and good townie, calls Mouldy Jeb his #1 suspicion. s0Lstice then explicitly asks crossfire for an opinion on Mouldy. Crossfire does exactly what I would expect a mafia to do. Agrees with the influential player on his #1 scumread, reiterating what s0Lstice said. Mouldy Jeb would undoubtedly be an easy lynch today, and assuming that he is town, would take the pressure off mafia. And if crossfire is so suspicious of MJ, why didn't he say anything until s0Lstice prompted him? I grant that none of this is solid evidence and that a townie could plausibly act the same way, but crossfire's response is definitely consistent with mafia behavior. Otherwise is avoiding scumhunting+ Show Spoiler + Looking through the rest of his filter, he doesn't say much meaty stuff. In his first post, he rehashes a lot of what previous people had said. And after that, he talks a lot about policy issues such as when to vote and how to pressure people. Nothing too controversial in his entire filter. Overall, I'd say crossfire looks a bit scummy. HeavOnEarth I don't have all that much too analyze with HeavOn Earth, but a couple things look scummy throws suspicion on several easy targets+ Show Spoiler + My main problem with him is that he has halfheartedly thrown suspicion onto golden, MJ, and crossfire. All three of these players were rather quiet (at least initially) and relatively easy targets. As s0sltice said, heavOnEarth's actual cases were unimpressive. Here are heavOnEarth's scumhunting posts: + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 23:52 HeavOnEarth wrote: ...That said O.Golden_ne looks the most suspicious to me- *quotes Golden* Is there anything even remotely helpful in this post? Everyone knows NL is bad. he seems to be posting for the sake of it also, i checked his last game, (he was townie) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=337671&user=92568 u can tell his tone is completely different, and he is generally more helpful. also id like to point out crossfire is completely inactive, whereas in past games he was a pretty talkative little townie. thoughts? + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 02:39 HeavOnEarth wrote: As for my suspicions, golden still hasn't replied, and there seems to be a lot of random fluff RIGHT AFTER my accusation, by both Mouldy Jeb AND crossfire( oh hey there nice of u to suddenly wake up ) this is a common mafia tactic, to throw the spotlight off someone being accused. check out Mouldy Jeb's posts, and accusations Why would someone try to direct suspicions with NO reasoning? And now he becomes wishy/washy+ Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 09:32 HeavOnEarth wrote: was sort of waiting for MJ to post something after he was like hurr durr ima post soon. i took a look at his previous game though and his posts seem consistent from when he was townie. hes really not helping at all, and definitely still looks scum, but it feels like poor town play rather than mafia. as for golden im still undecided since he hasnt posted anything what the fuck -_-. why sign up if ur not gonna fucking play but i guess i doubt hes mafia, i would've expected at least a simple reply to my accusations if he was mafia by now. but it seems he just doesnt give a fuck @_@ idk. kinda confused at this point In this post he becomes wishy/washy about his suspicions on MJ and golden. In particular he says "as far as golden im still undecided". What? Before, golden seemed most suspicious to heavOnEarth. Only recently has he become undecided. This is pretty wishy/washy. The only reason I don't see this as super scummy is that he voluntarily adjusted his reads; nobody asked him to clarify them. My suspicions on HeavOnEarth are tempered by some of the boldness in his filter, such as -- saying "it doesn't matter if your suggestions are completely bad" -- his questioning s0Lstice about the lynch not being for 24 hours -- his abrasive summary of how MJ and golden have been playing Overall, I'd say HeavOnEarth is somewhat suspicious suki I see that suki has recently doubled or tripled the size of her filter in just two posts. I'm going to read through these and figure out how they affect my read on her. + Show Spoiler + -- his questioning s0Lstice about the lynch not being for 24 hours -- his abrasive summary of how MJ and golden have been playing On June 15 2012 07:04 sciberbia wrote: Lynch Candidates based on everyone's stated convictions HeavOnEarth interested in lynching(8): suki, me, s0lstice, roflwaffle, milton, alan, austin, golden no comment(3): trackd00r, crossfire, MJ Many people want to lynch him and nobody is actually defending him at the moment. There is much less consensus on the other candidates (see below). Crossfire interested in lynching(5): me, austin, trackd00r, milton, heavOnEarth not convinced(4): s0lstice, golden, alan, suki no comment(2): MJ, roflwaffles Some people find him suspicious. Others remain unconvinced. I don't think it makes sense to lynch him over HeavOnEarth because some people actually don't find him suspicious. Mouldy Jeb The argument for lynching him is extreme lurking and unhelpfulness. I'm not against lynching lurkers if we don't have any good lynch candidates. But in this case we do: most people find HeavOnEarth scummy. In addition, we get little information from MJ's flip, whereas we get quite a bit from heavOnEarth. golden I haven't gone through the filter, but I just don't get the feeling that there is enough suspicion on him to warrant a lynch over HeavOnEarth. IN SUMMARY HeavOnEarth seems like the consensus lynch target. Personally, I think he has a good chance of flipping red. I'll detail my thoughts on him in a subsequent post. Overall, seems like the sensible player to lynch. @heavOnEarth It looks likely that you will be lynched today. Please post a defense and more importantly give as many reads as you can. @trackd00r, crossfire, MJ Please post your opinion on HeavOnEarth as soon as possible. It's important that everyone weighs in on the lynch candidates, especially the one that looks most likely to be lynched. This is then where sciberbia becomes smart and starts stepping up his game, but there are some clues. First I will start with this fact sciberbia was active during all of night 1, from the beginning to the end. Here are his post times in order + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 09:12 sciberbia wrote: On June 15 2012 13:46 sciberbia wrote: On June 15 2012 16:54 sciberbia wrote: On June 16 2012 01:48 sciberbia wrote: On June 16 2012 03:14 sciberbia wrote: On June 16 2012 09:00 sciberbia wrote: On June 15 2012 14:24 Crossfire99 wrote: Ok now let's analyze this lynch. Solstice drew the first blood with these + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 10:07 s0Lstice wrote: Alright, so I went filter spelunking and explored every nook and cranny. My general impression at this moment is one of disappointment. I know it's rare to get good reads on day 1, but some people's filters are incredibly barren. If I had to lynch right now, here would be my suspects. HeavOnEarth He's pretty lurky. His hard stance is on Golden, where he builds a case on the poor guy's intro post. Look at the case: Think of it like this. Scum will be making cases against people on day 1...they have to. I looked at all the cases people have made, and this one stank especially bad. It's built entirely around a hello post. It has a very artificial feel to it. Also, he just posted this: Townies always feel the pressure of the ticking clock. Half of our time being gone doesn't seem to trouble him. He hasn't really bothered to comment on what's been going on in the thread outside of his own reads. He's been on Mouldy Jeb's case as well. Here's some more recent(!) material: Confused? Me too. I think this dude has a chance at flipping scum. On June 15 2012 00:50 s0Lstice wrote: Some housekeeping stuff first.. I am removing alan133 from my scum list. The main thing that had me suspicious was his strong-arm defense, but everything following that has been fine. I like that he is holding himself accountable for his style, and I want to see what he can do when not under pressure. austin and suki have commented on crossfire99, and I have to say I agree. I was planning on wrighting a post similar to what suki has done. The cogent point is that he has long bouts of inactivity when he is both scum and town. He should get the same level of suspicion that every lurker gets, but nothing special beyond that I feel. His filter right now is pretty garbagey, and hard to get a read on. I wouldn't be upset if we lynched him, but I think we can do better. Here is better: HeavOnEarth. Nothing has happened to change my initial opinion on him for the better. In fact, him buddying up to sciberbia in his latest post makes him look worse. Go read my case if you missed it. I'm not the only one to see him as suspicious, so I think there is plenty of traction here. ##vote HeavOnEarth Then alan joins the fun with this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 04:00 alan133 wrote: I see the current pressure are easing off from me. I also realize I has pretty much ignored everyone else except for rolf and suki. @HeavOnEarth His first few points seem disconnected. None of them relates to each other: From FoSing Golden for his opening post, + Show Spoiler + And I thought rofl@me and suki@trap was bad He also state that he is waiting for responses. Upon being debunked on Gold's read, he basically dismiss it similar the way suki has dismissed her case on trap, claiming they are trying to start conversation. In suki's case, this is still believable. Before her case there was no controversy, and very little to talk about. However, when Heave posted on Gold, there were already controversies + Show Spoiler + rolf@me suki@trap Very Suspicious Right now, I find Heav and MJ were the best lynch candidates, and HeavOnEarth appears to be more scummy ##unvote: Suki ##vote: HeavOnEarth I am off to bed, it is 3 am right here. I will get up in 4 hours so we can get a successful lynch. Another refresh reveals more post from crossfire. My opinion on him has not swayed. Next suki comes to the party + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 04:58 suki wrote: HeavOnEarth: Okay, something really really sticks out to me in Heavon's first post, and it's not about golden. It's this particular line: Above, I posted my opinions on Crossfire, where I had gone through pretty much his entire filter in his two previous games, and the big thing I noted was that Crossfire LURKED very hard in his first game as blue, and somewhat lurked in the second game as red. HeavOn clearly is talking about Crossfire's game as blue, 'He was a pretty talkative little townie'. This is clearly wrong. He continues his case against Crossfire later after sciberbia brings it up. This has already been labelled as suspicious. It's a big point against him that he waited until someone else pointed fingers at Crossfire, when he had so early established a read on Crossfire - a fairly in depth read as he had even looked at Crossfire's filters from previous games. The thing is, the case HeavOn makes against crossfire disregards the previous game filters. Crossfire, as mafia, was assertive actively pushed cases against other players. He also lurked quite a bit. HeavOn votes for Golden despite saying that his case against Golden is weak. He doesn't back off however, stating that the response was scummy and that the scummy thing about it was how golden was commenting on the time it would take to make his posts? Seems like a very strained argument to make. I see clear scum motivation in voting for golden. In my previous game as mafia, I harped on Miltonkram for his early vote against sciberbia. Even when my argument was convincingly rebutted, I continued to press my case against him finding any sort of scummy intent I could make up. Why? Because I didn't want to be wishy-washy. HeavOn's case against golden is that golden 'just feels off'. This makes Golden a 'solid lynch' to him. I'm out of time, but that's my insight into HeavOn. I feel that there can definitely be scum motivation behind his posts. I haven't had time to closely look at other people but for now HeavOn is clearly a scummier target than alan. ##unvote alan113 ##vote HeavOnEarth Those three I mentioned above all brought solid analysis and new thoughts on Heavon, so I feel confident in seeing them as town for right now. Then Milton (+ Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 04:59 Miltonkram wrote: Oops, slept in a bit later than I'd planned. s0Lstice, I'm inclined to agree with you. HeavOnEarth looks like the best lynch candidate. Everybody, I'd suggest you take a look at him. His filter is not particularly long, but I think there is enough scummy behavior there to warrant a vote. ##Vote: HeavOnEarth On June 15 2012 05:09 roflwaffles55 wrote: I noticed already that his play was scummy, however I felt like it was the easy way out, I was hoping to nail a more influential scum D1, but I guess that's just new player optimism... If he flips scum, I'm not sure what kind of information we're going to gain from it as his posts don't seem to link him to anyone.. and if he flips town then all we really know is that he was a poor townie. I'll go with the flow because he's fairly blatant with his scumminess (real word?) but I'd like to keep an eye on Crossfire, as well as keeping Mouldy Jeb in mind for a D2 lynch. ##unvote Crossfire99 ##vote HeavOnEarth I'm not sure if I'll be on tonight, I'll do my absolute best to be on in case there's a swing of opinion. On June 15 2012 06:27 O.Golden_ne wrote: in regards to HeavonEarth. In relation to my: a) knowing i'm town. b) Him trying to bus me one the grounds of "seems like a solid case". c) lacklustre contribution and no rebuttle to any arguments. i feel like he see's a bandwagon forming and jumps on straight away. #VOTE: HeavonEarth i still maintain a #FOS on MouldyJeb i still owe the group a comment on Crossfire99 but i honestly dont have time for it before work. On June 15 2012 02:44 roflwaffles55 wrote: I'm going to post as though all of these people are scum, and the impact they have a chance to make if they are left alive. I think it will give a different way of thinking about it. HeavOnEarth His play is quite suspicious and his accusations and suspicions lackluster at best. He could just as easily be an awful townie as scum. Overall he's been fairly ineffectual, but if he's hiding behind a mask of confusion and bad reads, he could be an annoyance as scum later on. I believe that the most lynchable potential scum right now would be Crossfire99. I understand that there are already votes on HeavOnEarth, but if he really is that incompetent at bringing cases to the table, as a scum, why would he try to post them? He is suspicious to me, but not as suspicious as Crossfire. Unless he responds to the accusations in a convincing and collected manner soon, I strongly believe that he should be lynched. ##vote Crossfire99 This is followed by sciberbia's vote + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 07:56 sciberbia wrote: My thoughts on HeavOnEarth: I was originally somewhat suspicious of him for throwing suspicion onto a handful of easy targets, and then becoming wishy/washy about it. He has since made me more suspicious with his response and attitude towards golden. First of all, he admits that his case was "pretty damn bad" and LOL's about it. I see this as slightly scummy. He is being ingratiating and agreeable, rather than firm, objective, and analytic. This is more typical of mafia than of townies. Next HeavOnEarth says that there were no other posts to provoke Golden with. The question I'm left asking myself is: why did HeavOnEarth feel that he had to attack Golden at all? He says it was strong play of him to "accuse lurkers of being scummy", but at the time of HeavOnEarth's accusation, golden didn't look lurky. Golden made 1 post in the first 4 hours of the game, and then HeavOnEarth accused him. 1 decent-sized post in the first 4 hours isn't lurky. Why was HeavOnEarth looking for a reason to "provoke him"? Finally, heavOnEarth refuses to back down from his suspicions of golden, and even ends up voting golden, but doesn't give any good reasons. He just says that golden's posting seems odd. Odd =/= scummy. It looks like he just arbitrarily picked a target to attack at the beginning and now won't back down. Overall, I think he has a good chance of being mafia and I'm happy with lynching him. ##Vote HeavOnEarth Then austin comes in and votes for me with this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 08:28 austinmcc wrote: I think Heavon looks scummy. But his voting took off after he posted that he was going to be gone for auto repairs. And there's been very little pushback. I'm particularly worried by: (1) us going for the guy who basically said "Won't be around to defend myself," and (2) the lack of any pushback against him, when we had multiple targets recently. There could be some bussing going on, but we had a couple other juicy targets, and I wouldn't expect a bus in that situation. At the very least, my stance right now is that he doesn't look good, but the vast majority of the votes and comments on him seem to have occurred after he said he was leaving. I don't want to lynch him today based on that alone. See your comment towards him. Yes, his reads would help town. Yes, he ought to defend himself. But he may actually have been gone these last few hours, and I want to see his response before I lynch him. If it looks bad, there's D2. I think I'm saying the same thing over and over, so I'll knock it off. Apart from those basic statements, I'll note this. He DOES fit into a category of people trying to look like they're scumhunting but not. The 1 post suspicion of Golden, his comment on MJ - his chiming in on crossfire - + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 20:15 HeavOnEarth wrote: @Sciberbia in addition to what u said on crossfire, notice that he 1) only replies when called out. Every message he is replying to someone, not making his own points aside from his opening. 2) Every one of his posts feels like complete filler to me. he is trying to LOOK helpful, without actively contributing anything + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 02:06 Crossfire99 wrote: I agree that we need more information and we get that from pressuring people, but we need to do that smartly. If too many people are throwing around minor accusations all the time, it just confuses the town and allows mafia to sit back and laugh. That is what happened in NMM XIII when I was mafia. Ask austin, he was in it too. On June 14 2012 03:38 Crossfire99 wrote: Yeah Mouldy is acting really weird. He needs to get active to explain himself. Everything he has said so far lacks good reasoning. On June 14 2012 03:50 Crossfire99 wrote: I never said don't vote. I just said be careful about throwing your votes around willy-nilly under the premise that you are going to remove them later. I never even said don't do that. I just don't want someone sticking someone else with a vote for flimsy reasons that ends up sealing a lynch because they couldn't get back in time to change it. That was the entire point of those two sentences. As for the mention of the scum tactic, I'm just saying that sometimes scum can not take part in big discussions later in the day by voting early and then disappearing. I'm just trying to help roflwaffle, by trying to get him to think about taking his vote seriously and having good reasons for whatever he does. If no one holds anyone accountable mafia can just breeze on by. 3) notice his defensive, and meek tone; in addition to his low post count. he's obviously afraid to attract attention to himself 4) he was lurking for a LONGGG time before he finally decided to post . What u thought we all forgot about that? That leaves me with cross. ##Vote: Crossfire99 What I'd ask of everyone is to show me where Crossfire has done any scumhunting. He posted a little, dropped off the face of the earth, came back, responded to everyone's comments towards him, but never even gave us a single read throughout the day. Nobody looked scummy, because he really just didn't comment on ANYONE. I'm confused as to how that can be towny behavior, and he dropped in, spent time responding to all these people, but spent 0 characters doing any kind of hunting himself. Lurking is bad, but you can lurk and contribute when you pop up. HeavOnEarth didn't contribute when he came back. Crossfire didn't contribute when he came back, except addressing our concerns about him. Between the timing of the votes on HeavOn and the lack of any push on him, I'd rather go with Crossfire today. Trackdoor then comes in and votes last with this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 08:52 trackd00r wrote: I was checking Heaven's filter. I must admint that he looks suspicious at this stage of the game. I was expecting from him a more detailed analysis of his play, since he stated that he has more experience in playing mafia. I dislike the fact that he took the most easy target to pressure (golden), instead of trying to outline the other players, He also adds some points against CF, but isn't really big of a deal. Although I share some suspicions with him, I see that he is not contributing at the same level as the rest of us are. I don't really think that it will be that much of a loss if he flips town. If that is the case, he have a whole post history behind us too see who bandwagoned and who tried to hunt down mafia As I don't want a NL, I'll change my vote to heaven. ##Unvote: O.Golden_ne ##Vote: HeavOnEarth I think that leaves everyone except for me and Heavon. I won't even bother quoting Heavon. He just went with a weak vote on Golden and then got lynched. And I missed the lynch for the reasons stated above. Ok. That's all the time I have for now (I should have gone to bed an hour and a half ago, but whatever). I don't know if I'll be back in time before the night ends to post some more thoughts, so consider this my contribution for now. If I survive the lynch, I'll look into roflwaffle's filter and get a better read on him. I encourage you all to do the same and let me know what you think whether you agree or disagree. On June 15 2012 14:49 alan133 wrote: I am going to write a post. I am aware that my writing speed is some what slow, so I am going to post a short summary of what is about to come. @mouldy/unforgiven_ve swap - my thoughts @sciberbia - my slight suspicion due to his discussion about night actions. @suki and rolf "conspiracy theory"- dismissing it @my thought on O.Golden_ne vs austinmcc. My suspicion on Golden has grown while austinmcc's filters strikes me as being town. @my prime suspect - roflwaffle55, please look at my reasoning before judging if I have a bias. I am aware I focused on him and suki a lot and seems to be counter attacking hard. I don't see why I should hide my suspicion just because I fear people will take it wrongly. Judge my reasoning!! I have not focused on other players yet, I will post my content soon. Unfortunately for him, though, his day 2 play starts showing some more obvious signs of scumminess. he goes from against the vigi claiming but still kinda wishy-washy and ultimately not caring in these posts + Show Spoiler + On June 16 2012 09:16 sciberbia wrote: @s0lstice I don't think it makes too much a difference whether vigi claims or not. Vigi will obviously claim if in danger of being lynched, and we will obviously believe them unless there is a cc (in which case it's gg). So the only way vigi can ever get lynched is if it comes down to 3/4 players left and the scum fakeclaims vigi. So I don't think it can possibly hurt for vigi to wait until 5/6 players left before claiming. I think there is a very slight benefit to vigi not claiming today. The benefit is that scum has fewer good NK options. Overall, I think it'd be very slightly beneficial for vigi to wait till 5/6 players left before claiming. But it's not at all a big deal, and if vigi judges that the knowledge that they (the vigi) is confirmed is helpful to town, I have no problem with that. On June 16 2012 09:57 sciberbia wrote: crap just realized there could potentially be two vigis. So my previous thoughts about cc'ing vigi and scum fakeclaiming vigi don't fully apply. Still, I think it is most likely that there is only 1 vigi, and I don't think it really matters whether or not he claims today. On June 16 2012 14:44 sciberbia wrote: Just a couple of small things before I sleep. @alan I really wouldn't be suspicious of s0Lstice just for suggesting that the vigi claim. As he explained, it really isn't that big of a deal. thoughts on NK (or lack thereof) + Show Spoiler + I've been trying, but I can't think of any likely explanation for the mafia's choice to NK austinmcc. So I'm pretty much just going to disregard the NK. @s0Lstice as a point of fact, austinmcc did voice some suspicions against suki yesterday. But I don't think that is really indicative of anything anyway. check your PM's to see if you were RB'd + Show Spoiler + If you were RB'd and you don't think you were a target of the jailkeeper (not a top 2 or 3 NK candidate) you should claim it now. No reason to wait in claiming this. And it tells us that the last mafia is a roleblocker (assuming you're telling the truth) I'm going to sleep now. I'll be going over filters and doing analysis during the day tomorrow. You can expect some posts from me on lynch candidates within 18 to 24 hours. On June 17 2012 05:31 sciberbia wrote: Just got up. First of all, alan has claimed vigilante. if anybody else is vigilante, you should claim NOW. @s0Lstice I do not like your plan. It completely disregards night actions and also prevents us from making better reads based on what people post. There's a pretty decent chance we have a cop, and we surely have at least 1 power role. I think we'd have a good chance to win with your plan, but it's not guaranteed. It's the lazy way to go, and we have an even better chance to win by continuing discussion, making reads, and getting information from night actions. Also, why are you so suspicious of unforgiven/MJ? I'm going to start looking at the cases on trackd00r, golden, and suki. On June 17 2012 06:30 sciberbia wrote: @s0Lstice, alan It is unlikely, but there could potentially be two real vigilantes. I only realized this last night. So if anybody else wants to claim vigi, they should do so right now. about the plan I think we are all making a big deal out of nothing here. Any reasonable actions from this point lead us to 90+% town win. s0Lstice made a list of the 4 people most likely to be mafia (in his opinion), and proposed that we lynch all of them. That's pretty reasonable. But it kind of goes without saying that we will lynch the most scummy people. So the "plan" isn't really deviation from what we would do anyway. So I don't think it matters much whether we "agree" on the plan or not. I don't think all this talk about the plan is very productive. Practically, I think it's hard enough to agree on one person to lynch, let alone four. And it's all subject to change anyway with information from night actions. So I suggest we just stop talking about the plan. Anyway, I'm just going through filters and making reads. @alan I highly doubt s0Lstice is mafia.. Note: I had to break this post up into 2 parts because it was too long. Lol. | ||
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Crossfire99
United States1529 Posts
During day 2 he focuses like most people on suki and trackdoor. We know trackdoor is town and suki is more up in the air, but I feel less confident in her case then this one on sciberbia. The important thing to note about his play is how he begins night 2 + Show Spoiler + On June 18 2012 11:59 sciberbia wrote: @s0Lstice I'll post more later. For now, what are your opinions on miltonkram? On June 18 2012 12:36 s0Lstice wrote: The thought ran through my head that if suki actually flipped town, I might want to lynch milton next. That was just a passing thought though. I'm on my phone right now, so I'll just post stuff that I got in short term memory. His joke vote on you would be a weird thing for scum to do. A needless risk for early game. I don't remember the exact chronology but I think he was pretty early to push heavonearth. I'll look through his filter in depth tomorrow, but I've been getting a pretty good town vibe from him. On June 18 2012 12:44 sciberbia wrote: @alan I don't think mass roleclaim is a good idea. If we have a cop, we probably don't have a medic/jailkeepr, so I don't want to make cop come out before he judges it's the right time. Also, it's a semi-open setup, so it's pretty damn hard to figure out if anyone is lying. Anyway, I've been kidna panicking a bit after seeing the trackd00r flip. I was looking foward to enjoying some post game talk, but now I'll just be happy if I don't feel like an idiot after this game. Anyway, here are some reads on the 7 players left not named sciberbia: short version:+ Show Spoiler + alan - confirmed vigi MJ/unforgiven - probably town golden - probably town s0Lstice - probably town crossfire - probably town miltonkram - idk suki - kinda scummy long version: alan+ Show Spoiler + confirmed vigi. Nobody else claimed the shot, and somebody obviously did it, so alan is for sure vigi. golden+ Show Spoiler + I'd be pretty shocked if golden were mafia. I honestly haven't even looked at his filter that much, but just from looking at roflwaffles's filter, I don't think golden can be mafia. crossfire+ Show Spoiler + Both confirmed scum attacked him, and tried to get him lynched. Also, the two confirmed scum are failry newbie (no offense) so I just don't see this as being a bus. Pretty definite he is town. MJ/unforgiven+ Show Spoiler + Nothing in these 2 filters is of much value, but as s0Lstice pointed out, both confirmed scum had no problem dumping suspicion on MJ. So I think it's pretty unlikely that he is scum. s0Lstice+ Show Spoiler + Hmm I guess it's possbile that s0Lstice just bussed the crap out of the other scum, and in hindsight it probably would have been a smart strategy for him to pull as mafia. And s0Lstice is a pretty smart player. But he has played about as pro-town as you can get and his whole filter gives me a townie feel. I'm slightly paranoid that he could be mafia, but I really just don't see it. miltonkram+ Show Spoiler + I'm not saying that he looks really scummy, but I don't see why he can't be scum. The only major thing in his favor is his pretty good accusations of HeavOnEarth during D1. But I could maybe see him making that bus. I'll write more about him in another post. suki+ Show Spoiler + I feel it's pretty likely that suki is the last mafia. I've already written a lot on her case. The only things really holding me back are the NK of austinmcc and her high activity D2. But I don't see how we can not lynch her just based on that. Maybe she just wanted to see if she could avoid one more lynch for the lulz? Idk.. So in response to s0Lstice's query, I'm totally down with lynching suki D3 (sorry suki). On June 18 2012 13:51 sciberbia wrote: The case against miltonkram I think that suki is most likely to be the last scum. But if she flips town, the next person I'd want to lynch would be miltonkram. I don't think he's especially scummy, but he is not at the almost-definite-town status at which I place every player besides him and suki. I'm writing this case against him because nobody else seems to want to lynch him, and I'm worried he could survive to the end of the game as mafia. First of all, I grant that his playstyle seems similar to his town from NMM XV, and that his filter gives off a townie vibe. But that's not conclusive evidence. Not the same level townie-evidence as for people like crossfire, golden, or MJ, who were mercilessly attacked by 2 confirmed scum on D1. miltonkram's stances during D1+ Show Spoiler + ordering is roughly chronological trackdoor - neutral suki - suspicious crossfire - suspicious alan - "fairly decent" case against him roflwaffles - suspicious, but then backs off MJ - #1 on scumdar alan - very suspicious, but then backs off HeavOnEarth - would vote, then votes His suspicions on roflwaffles don't do anything to clear him in my mind. Nobody was really suspicious of roflwaffles at that point, and miltonkram backed off his suspicions reasonably quickly, so roflwaffles wasn't really in any danger based on miltonkram's actions. Otherwise, he throws suspicion onto a bunch of people that are town (assuming milton is last mafia): suki, crossfire, alan (kinda), MJ. This isn't damning but isn't exactly comforting either. Helping to Lynch HeavOnEarth Miltonkram does contribute to the lynch of HeavOnEarth, by putting HeavOnEarth into his "top 3" after only me and s0Lstice have accused him, and then applying the third vote to HeavOnEarth. This is certainly evidence in favor of miltonkram being town, but I could maybe see him pulling the bus as mafia. It would honestly be the smart move. And it wouldn't be the riskiest bus ever or anything. He originally listed HeavOnEarth as 1 of a list of 3, and it was after s0Lstice and I accused him already -- pretty safe townies to side with, but a bandwaggon of 3 doesn't assure a lynch. To me, a miltonkram bus of HeavOnEarth seems by far the most likely out of all possible busses. Putting the third vote on HeavOnEarth would definitely be a ballsy move, but maybe he judged it was the best choice. And if he is mafia, it probably was. Also here's some food for thought: On June 17 2012 11:17 Miltonkram wrote: Maybe this is too WIFOMy, but I feel like the safe play for scum would have been to have one player voting HeavOnEarth in order to gain some of the town cred in case he got lynched and one player voting someone else in order to keep a little momentum towards a possible mislynch. This isn't a strong point, so my opinions aren't the only things hinging on this. about the NK (worth reading I think)+ Show Spoiler + @s0Lstice First of all, as a point of fact, austinmcc did voice suspicions of suki during D1, so your logic as to why suki might have killed austinmcc doesn't hold. This is the the second time I've gotten the feeling you don't thoroughly read my posts. Tsk Tsk. Maybe it's a sign I shouldn't write so much :p Anyway, I've been thinking and thinking and thinking about the NK. It doesn't make a lot of sense no matter who ordered it. + Show Spoiler + But actually now that I think about it, all of the sensible NK targets voiced suspicions of suki: me, s0Lstice, alan, miltonkram. So maybe suki would have found some reason to kill austinmcc. Anyway, the best explanation I have come up with for the hit on austinmcc is that the last mafia thought that they could avoid getting lynched as long as there was no cop. And for whatever reason they thought austinmcc might be cop. Miltonkram is someone who can reasonably hope to avoid being lynched without a cop. But he was honestly a pretty good cop check last night. So maybe that's why he picked austinmcc over me/s0Lstice/alan. austinmcc does seem most likely to be cop out of those 4. Also, miltonkram was gone almost the entire night. Him being scum would totally fit into my theory about scum not submitting their NK until the last minute. Also look at this post from miltonkram. I found this to be really bad advice the second I read it. The point of a breadcrumb is for people not to notice it. Maybe he was fishing for the cop? On June 16 2012 07:34 Miltonkram wrote: EBWOP:Breadcrumb your actions right at the end of the night. That way scum don't have a chance to catch your breadcrumb before they send in their night actions. Finally, this isn't exactly related to Miltonkram, but I think it's quite possible that the last mafia is roleblocker and RB'd austin last night. This would work out great for mafia if austin was vigi/cop/veteran. And it doesn't let us know the presence of a roleblocker. Maybe the mafia felt austin looked blue, and that's why he died? IN SUMMARY -- I am for lynching suki, and then miltonkram if she flips town -- This isn't so much because miltonkram looks scummy, but that everyone else looks townie -- I am obsessed with figuring out why austinmcc died, and I have a possible explanation P.S. Every single time suki posts, I feel worse and worse about lynching her. But I think she is the only sensible choice. P.P.S. @Miltonkram don't feel obliged to write a defense post to this. There's honestly not much to explain as most of your actions make good sense for a townie. Assuming we don't win D3, you'd have to convince me somebody else is more scummy than you for me not to push you D4. Maybe you could explain the breadcrumbing comment though. Finally, this isn't exactly related to Miltonkram, but I think it's quite possible that the last mafia is roleblocker and RB'd austin last night. This would work out great for mafia if austin was vigi/cop/veteran. And it doesn't let us know the presence of a roleblocker. Maybe the mafia felt austin looked blue, and that's why he died? I feel this is enough to show that sciberbia has been acting scummy. | ||
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Crossfire99
United States1529 Posts
On June 18 2012 14:05 suki wrote: Yeah. Welcome to bizarro bus world. You're here already you just don't know it yet Both roflwaffle and heavonearth do not strike me as that sophisticated of players. Thus, I don't think that there was any plan for cooperation from the start between the two dead scum and our last remaining one. The most likely scenario is that Scum #3 is a strong player, who decided that it would be in his best interest to bus both of his teammates early to gain extreme townie cred. This strategy worked well in XV with Xatalos taking the win, although he did make some slips early on that could have exposed him if people had looked into him more in depth. Of course, an early bus or even double bus is so risky for mafia that it seems really unlikely, but that is the situation we are in now. It doesn't matter if you believe me now. When I flip, you can come back to these words and think carefully. --- The most important lesson to be learned in mafia XV was that the pattern of night kills, and townie's impressions of night kills, was very important to discovering that Xatalos was the last mafia. If player X was heavily tunneling player Y, and player X gets shot, does that mean player Y was scum? or maybe thats just what scum wants you to think. The town attitude in XV was that decyphering the meaning behind night kills was so WIFOMy that it wasn't worth doing. This lead to mafia being able to shoot the strongest player every night without fear of having the night shot analysed. At the very end, Xatalos shot the one person who was against him, thus securing a win because he knew the other two remaining players wouldn't analyse the shot and realize that the shot only made sense if he made it, not the #1 suspect at the time. We saw austinmcc get shot N1. Someone will get shot N2. These shots have meaning, and just because it's WIFOMy doesn't mean its not worth discussing. If the last remaining mafia was bold enough to start the game with a double bus, they most likely won't slip, and they might not even have any suspicious behaviour if they are good enough. The last remaining source of information is the pattern of NK's. Don't forget that. Just letting people know that posts after these weren't here when I posted my case. Hmmm. I hadn't thought of night kills like that before, but I still think that with the possible skill of the last scum, they might be able to WIFOM argue the reasoning they want town to see even if it is harder. I will have to think about this more though. | ||
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
The important thing is if the game starts getting closer to the end, it because really important to analyse the night kills and not just WIFOM it all away. And also, it's highly highly probable that there's a scum slip somewhere, no matter how good they are. So just keep looking for those slips and keep the night kills in mind for later. | ||
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