EPTdont know how i messed that up.
Newbie Mini Mafia XVII - Page 23
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
dont know how i messed that up. | ||
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
roflwaffles wasn't under heavy scrutiny at that point. scum sciberbia has no real motivation to bus his last teammate so quickly, with a case so strong that it basically would have killed all conversation for Day 2 (had vigi not shot him). Also, I don't see scum sciberbia shooting austin. Since sciberbia already had a lot of townie cred, it would have made a lot more sense to shoot someone like s0lstice, or alan or even trackd00r (the latter two showing non-commital, defensive play much like a blue would play). He wouldn't need to make a confusing kill. He could play straightforward and shoot obvious targets. Well, we'll see how N2 turns out. I only gave your case on sciberbia a quick once-over. A more in depth analysis will have to wait for tomorrow. | ||
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I wrote a post without writing my agenda first, I started a long time but later I saw crossfire's post. I did not intended to write anything against sciberbia even though I find him acting "weird", and only wanted to say "if sciberbia and s0Lstice lived through the end, be wary of them". After seeing crossfire's post, I decided to add on to what I find sciberbia weird. About day 2 Even before sciberbia did not point out rolfwaffles, I am already debating with myself if I should shoot him, and I consulted my mentors if I should just shoot someone I am convinced is scum, or just spare him and see if he leaks the 3rd scum. I was quite sure rolfwaffle is scum reading his scum slip post, and that happens just as I was reading a mafia guide on how to find scum slips, and the example provided in that guide is strikingly similar to what rolfwaffle said. Given that, a scum scriberia, will probably pick that up and recognize rolfwaffle's slip cannot be savior, why not point it out himself? I can see why rolfwaffle did not post at all after his "yay mafia died" post. I assume he is told by a stronger player to stop posting in care he leaks anything else. I will try to finish my post. | ||
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I meant to say night 1, not day 2. | ||
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
On June 18 2012 13:00 s0Lstice wrote: Suki, you are saying then that HeavOnEarth, confirmed scum, began bussing his teammate in his very first post, and spent his entire time in this game trying to get his teammate lynched. Please explain this. I am the one who said that. I noticed how HeavonEarth started his post by writing a case on O.Golden_ve. He went so far to post a link to Golden's filter from another game. That is when Golden posted only once. HeavonEarth's first post seemed confident that Golden is mafia. Why would a Godfather do that? I am betting my money that if he lead a successful lynch on Golden, he would have gain tremendous amount of trust, and he cops, if they exist, will get a false read by checking him. He did not attempt to call out any other player. He bandwagoned on Crossfire when austin called him out. He then went back to voting Gold without a reason. I thought trackd00r has a high chance to flip scum since he also voted on Golden D1 based on my reasoning, even though it seems too obvious to me, but I was wrong of course. I analysed rolf's filter, and there is one player that was never ever mentioned in his posts, not even in the content of his direct quotes: O.Golden_ve. In his post [spoiler]that he slipped hard, about how "dangerous" is it to not lynch someone, he soft defended HeavonEarth. While what I am going to say may seem sketchy, he had suki in it, but he did not mention Golden_ve. He also said that we can't get anything out of HeavonEarth's posts even if he flips mafia, which tickles my curiosity. He forgotten Heavon's accusation on Gold. It also seems like everyone thinks newbie mafias are not likely to conduct a bus, I beg to defer. That is like saying bronze/silver/gold players are less likely to cheese in a SC2 game. I don't think even a highly sophisticated player wants to bus both of his player in day 1 given the time needed to win. The closer to the end the worse he gets, unless he can kill role checking blues. Each day pass means at lease one more conformed townie (that died) I understand how people came out with suki as the most possibly scum by the process of elimination. I think many people rule Golden out because he was tunneled by Heavon. If it came to the conclusion that scum has bussed, I would like you all the consider Golden as a potential lynch. Also, s0Lsdice, in your argument for the process of elimination, you did not do an analysis on Suki. You simply pushed her to the end of the list, gave town reads on everyone before her, and say there's no one else. I don't like that. I know I am protecting suki hard, and if she really flips scum I will look like a total idiot, but I hope we play fair here. Arguments for O.Golden_ve Mafia Golden -Golden's aggressive towards those that accuse him, unlike him in another game where he is town -Golden's anxious in day 2 after 2 scums has died Townie Golden -His friendliness is consistent with his other game, other than the aggressive defense -When I read HeavonEarth's filter, it feels like the Godfather genuinely want to push for a mislynch. -He did contributed in bringing out ideas. His friendliness is very muck alike with my "neutral" policy. I treated everyone as potential scum and he treated everyone as potential town. -The first 2 scums were kind of new and made very obvious mistakes, I don't think mods will assign all mafia slots to 3 weaker players. + Show Spoiler + sorry rolfwaffle, HeavonEarth and Golden. I put myself in this category so I too) Other traits: -HeavonEarth paid most attention to him. He flips Godfather. -Rolfwaffle paid absolutely no attention to him. He flips goon. -Golden talked about the lynch votes, and suggested trackd00r/Crossfire should be lynched because they did not vote for Heavon. This could be seen as defensive scum move since it rules him out of the lynch targets, but I don't think a scum Golden will be bold enough to lead a wrong lynch. @Crossfire I refreshed and saw Crossfire's post. I thought sciberbia acted weird at times (with different reasons) but I dismissed it because I see the "townie-ness" of sciberbia. I thought my points are going to be insignificant especially when I usually got really little supporting points, so I didn't talk about it, and I want to avoid creating too many cases and cause a confusion. I did not post a summary but I meant to say be weary of him if Golden and Suki did not flip mafia, and that he don't die. When s0Lsdice talked about his plan, one thing comes to mind: what if the players that I have a strong town read turns out to be scum? I thought scum s0Lsdice will benefit the most from a fixed lynch, but it seems like he did not get what I wanted to say so I don't think s0Lsdice is mafia. His intention is good. Scriberbia said he did not like the fixed lynching. I asked for Scirberbia's opinion if s0Lsdice is scum, and he simply say this: + Show Spoiler + On June 17 2012 06:30 sciberbia wrote: @s0Lstice, alan It is unlikely, but there could potentially be two real vigilantes. I only realized this last night. So if anybody else wants to claim vigi, they should do so right now. about the plan I think we are all making a big deal out of nothing here. Any reasonable actions from this point lead us to 90+% town win. s0Lstice made a list of the 4 people most likely to be mafia (in his opinion), and proposed that we lynch all of them. That's pretty reasonable. But it kind of goes without saying that we will lynch the most scummy people. So the "plan" isn't really deviation from what we would do anyway. So I don't think it matters much whether we "agree" on the plan or not. I don't think all this talk about the plan is very productive. Practically, I think it's hard enough to agree on one person to lynch, let alone four. And it's all subject to change anyway with information from night actions. So I suggest we just stop talking about the plan. Anyway, I'm just going through filters and making reads. @alan I highly doubt s0Lstice is mafia.. My first impression is scriberbia trusted s0Lsitce a lot, but why? There is no reasoning to back up to, but I thought maybe I think too much, or there is a certain explanation to that trust. Also, trackd00r seems to agree with me in day 1. s0lstice: Is it my idea or you already gained trust from Sciberbia? I also don't like his sudden jump on Suki on day 2. It seems like he has zero opinion on suki, and then suddenly jumped the gun and came out with suki. When I asked for a third target yesterday, he did not out with any. I really dislike the Milton case. Being unsure of the situation is typical townie strait. In day 2 I am unsure of Gold and trackd00r, so I jumped back and forth, but because I am a confirmed blue, I wasn't targeted for a lynch. I also don't like how he jumped the gun and think only good players can conduct this bus. I find O.Golden scummy and it is plausible that he is involved in the bus, but sciberbia does not see any of that. It also seems like sciberbia is constantly trying to remind everyone he is as clueless as everyone else: -He stated that he wanted to know why austin was the target -He asked about 3 Nks. I find this silly since he played a few games already so he should have known the rules. I think crossfire did a good job with analyzing scribebia, I want to see the response from scribebia himself. Summary I think Suki is on the death toll tomorrow. I still think she is town regardless what was posted, but I will vote for her if it risks a no lynch. Remember town, 3 more mislynch for us, so never ever NL. Suki, if you are blue, please post your actions tomorrow if you can't convince them to put the votes off you. Please do so as soon as possible because not many people are around to make the switch. I also think I am going to die tonight. I rule out controversial players and think its either me, s0ldice or Crossfire biting the bullet this time. I don't know why suddenly everyone is suspecting each other, but this is what the mafia wants exactly. There are 7 townies and 1 scum. It is very likely anyone can be town, but it also means it is easier for scums to hide and create chaos. I think the pattern identified by cross on scibebria is very sound and fits in a well played mafia motivation. Things that I wanted to share before but did not out with it because of fearing scums will take advantage of this, but just in case I die: *There is a high possibility for cops to exist, although it is not 100%. Think about why Godfather exist. Question: Do people get a message when they are role blocked even they have no roles? *Please out with the role block tomorrow if any. Come to think of it, did scibebria mentioned outing rb when you were role blocked during 1st night? This seems like a day 2 action for townie, but a night action for scum | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
On June 18 2012 19:12 alan133 wrote: Why would a Godfather do that? I am betting my money that if he lead a successful lynch on Golden, he would have gain tremendous amount of trust, and he cops, if they exist, will get a false read by checking him. This is flawed reasoning. Why would the cop check him if he just gained a tremendous amount of trust? Bussing happens, even in newbie games. You are right about that. Remember though that it is situational. There is almost no motivation to bus a scum teammate in the way HeavOnEarth did. He did it in his first post(!) and didn't stop until he died. You are telling me that this bussing scenario is more likely than the very typical mafia play of picking a weak townie and trying to lead a mislynch on them? Remember Occam's Razor: the simplest explanation is most likely true. This does not mean you should flat out ignore other scenario's, but you go against this axiom at your peril. You say also that I did not analyze suki in my process of elimination post. I've already analyzed her. It was huge, I posted it on night 1. Since then she has gone after trackd00r. After trackd00r flips, look at this post. On June 18 2012 12:56 suki wrote: My outlook on the game post-lynch: People will be taking a much closer look at me. It's to be expected, after the case that s0lstice and sciberbia brought up. I feel I pushed a good case on trackd00r and its frustrating that he wasn't able to defend himself adequately. I once again went through all the players in the game. I think I am just going to accept the hard truth that I just blow at analysis. My reasoning for tunnelling someone aggressively is that if there really are other scummy players, they will be picked out by the other townies, meanwhile my analysis will either find scum, or force townies to act more townie, or force mistakes from scum. There are two people who stand out at the moment in my opinion: --- Mouldyjeb/unforgiven: + Show Spoiler + Both HeavOnEarth and roflwaffle were on Mouldyjeb's case since Day 1. Highly highly doubt that they would double bus their own teammate that early. Read: unforgiven very lurky. Possibly town, possibly scum, but can't analyse due to lack of posts. He looks more townie due to mafia double bus early Day 1. --- golden: despite saying this, he is hardly aggressive. Found Mouldyjeb suspicious. Found austinmcc suspicious but doesn't explain why. Austinmcc pressured golden for 'broken promises to contribute more'. Golden got really really offended at it. Could see an angry golden just shooting austinmcc N1 just to get back at him. Haha. forgets that heavOnEarth attacked him. Possibly just didn't give his teammate's post much thought. from crossfire's lynch summary post ( http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15090823 ), note that Golden was 6th to vote for heav0nEarth. Right in the middle of the pack is a good time for a mafia to jump on a bandwagon. Here is alan's case on golden ( http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15104147 , summary here : http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15104403 ) It is pretty in depth and I suggest people read it. . Also note that golden gave no reason for jumping on trackd00r. He simply stated he said trackd00r was #1 on his scum list and voted him. ===== In summary: I am town. That's my only defence at this point. If you believe me, then I hope you'll take a really close look at alan's case on golden. If you don't believe me, then I still hope you'll take a really close look at alan's case on golden. Going to bed soon but I'll keep up with the thread and post my thoughts. Just a little too burned out to do any sort of heavy analysis right now. Read between the lines here. It says 'I am running out of places to hide.' She picks two people who 'stand out' to her, and then concludes that one of them is probably town. The other one is Golden, and when I pressed her on it using the exact same reasoning I just detailed to you, she backed down from that one too. Also, look at how she has been dealing with Miltonkram. If she was scum, going after him would be extremely risky for her, as it was evident that a lot of us had a pretty good town read on him. She didn't suspect him until after sciberbia and me started entertaining the idea of his death, and then she is all about the idea. So basically, the stuff that has happened after I posted my case on her does nothing to change my original opinion. Return to Occam's Razor: her being scum, all things considered, is the simplest explanation. I don't say this in lieu of any other reasoning, I say it as very powerful supplementary information. Now in regards to sciberbia, On June 18 2012 19:12 alan133 wrote: I don't know why suddenly everyone is suspecting each other, but this is what the mafia wants exactly. You are right. Suspecting sciberbia is exactly what the last scum wants you to do. I haven't read the case on him yet as I wanted to address you first, but all I'm going to say is that your primary source of information here is his filter, not Crossfire's case. I've been through the filter a couple of times, and because of this new case I will probably do so again. I'm guessing though that my opinion won't change, because sciberbia has been a scum hunting machine this game. His play has been extremely, extremely green. One thing I'll point out right now is that his suspicions of suki did not come out of nowhere. He was very clear on his suspicions of her on day 1. Have a look: On June 14 2012 13:02 sciberbia wrote: I've been studying the thread and I currently find these 3 most suspicious: suki, Crossfire99, and HeavOnEarth I've been staring at suki's filter for the last half hour, so I'll dedicate the rest of this post to my case on suki, and detail my thoughts on crossfire and heavonEarth in another post. Here are several reasons why I am suspicious of suki: Her original accusation of trackd00r+ Show Spoiler + suki's original accusation of trackd00r was quite strong. She says: -- This post screams to me that he's trying to be super cautious... -- BUT WAIT! Just ONE post previous to that he says... -- try to take a firm stance, and then you do the most scummy wishy-washy-ness thing ever the very next post. -- ##vote trackd00r She clearly thinks trackd00r has a good chance of being scum, and is interested in making everyone suspicious of him. Keep this in mind for later. Anyway, this original accusation drew my attention for a couple reasons. -- First of all, she twists his words, so her case isn't good -- As austinmcc said, even if trackd00r had contradicted himself, that's not a great scumtell. Mafia don't intentionally promote mafia policies. That's way too obvious. So I think suki is attacking him for a (percieved) confusing stance, not a scumtell. -- We lynched suki last game for being wishy/washy. I could definitely see a mafia suki making a bit of a stretch just to make an early "bold" case, and try to look townie. trackd00r would make a good target of such a case since he is new and his first couple posts were a bit confusing (difficult to read). The way that suki backs off trackd00r+ Show Spoiler + I wasn't too suspicious based on suki's initial accusation. But I really didn't like the way in which she backed down from it. + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 00:06 suki wrote: As has been pointed out, the contradiction isn't as severe as I initially thought it was. ##unvote trackd00r I thought at the very least I could rouse a response from trackd00r, however my case was too weak and I feel that no useful information can be gleamed from people simply agreeing on its flimsiness. Before, she thought there was a severe contradiction. Now, she says that there is still a contradiction, but it isn't that severe. What? I was expecting her to say that she had misread/misunderstood. I still don't see any contradiction at all. Her post suggests that she doesn't want to completely back down from her accusation, but I don't see why she is still suspicious of trackd00r at all. @suki please clarify this To me, the most scummy line in her whole filter is "I thought at the very least I could rouse a response from trackd00r". Reading her original response, she strongly accuses trackd00r and seems very interested in getting him lynched. This line about "at the very least" seems contradictory to that motivation. general attitude in her filter+ Show Spoiler + suki was super excited to play this game and was even more excited at the prospect of playing town. Look through her filter. Her posts so far aren't what I would expect from a town suki. After the initial accusation, everything she has said is bland and uninteresting. I don't think she has yet shared any real insight, or shown a lot of interest in helping town. It feels more like she is going through the motions. how she opens the game+ Show Spoiler + This is pretty circumstancial, so I don't expect many of you to buy into it, but I find the timing of her first two posts odd. First of all, starting the game about 4 hours late is slightly indicative of mafia. Secondly, why does she post a policy response 6 minutes after her first accusation post? She had clearly read the whole thread before posting either. This is all a bit odd to me, and I think it lends credence to the idea that she just wanted to start off boldly to avoid suspicion. The only thing in her filter that gives me a townie feel is her recent statement about finding golden's opening post suspicious, but waiting to comment on it. Overall, I would rate suki as definitely suspicious, based mostly on her accusation of trackd00r and the way she backed down from it. | ||
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
About Golden's case, if you read correctly, I actually have more point supporting him rather than against him. About the motivation behind a bus, please do remember that this is a newbie game. It is even harder to read Sorry that I didn't mention my above post was regarding after Suki is lynched and flipped town, I know this is a bit far fetched, but I am just thinking scums might hit me.. or will they? I think the general consent is to lynch suki. Your case against suki in night 1 She defended herself and I defended her, but no one even care to comment on them. When I asked for one, you simply said "that has not changed my mind, sorry". Even so, I am all for lynching suki if everyone thinks she is scum. No reason to be a straw man here and cause more chaos. Given at this point of time, we can safely do a mislynch, so do lynch her to either proof her innocent, or win the game and embarrass me for my silliness. Seeing that you didn't read Cross's case against Sciberbia, I am not surprised you find my case weak. I did not include what Crossfire said because I don't want to repeat after him, but do read his case. I have an uneasy feeling when you came out with your plan. I was comfortable with my town reads: You, sciberbia, crossfire, MJ and suki. Except for the last one, I think everyone generally feels this way. However, when you mentioned about a fixed list, I keeps me thinking. What if my reads are wrong? What if the one that appeared most honest and pro-town to us turns out to be a scum? There is no 100% sure. I know, there is strong reasons for why sciberbia is not scum, but it is all based on words, and no guarantee. I do comment that if sciberbia is scum, he is seeing to win this game 15 days later. What I want to say is, yes, everyone wants to lynch scum, and the best outcome is for her to spill red, even if it makes me hit my head thinking how stupid I was, I prefer that. However, what if she don't? I suggest you all re-evaluate everyone from that point onward. I don't like sciberbia's case on miltonkram. I read it beforecrossfire's case on him, but as soon as I read his case against milton, I kept thinking that he is actually scummier. | ||
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
Basically, if suki flipped green, nullify all the reads you have and do a reevaluation. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
The first thing I did after responding to you was get to work on the case that crossfire wrote. I'm about a quarter of the way through it, and I already see a lot of problems. If it helps, this is the mindset I am keeping while reading through it: read it once with the idea fixed in your head that sciberbia is town and look for town motivations for all actions that crossfire brought up, then do the exact same thing with the idea fixed in your head that sciberbia is scum and look for scum motivation for all the actions brought up. Perhaps you did this already when you read it, but if you didn't, give it a shot. I'm gonna make a post on it before N2 is over. No votes have been placed yet. We have many hours yet before day 3 lynch, and plenty of work to do. Unforgiven_ve You have been subbed in for awhile now and done almost nothing, and its hurting the town. I know you said you were busy, but if you are town and have any interest in us winning this game, you need to share what your current scumreads are. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
You're right. I read through crossfire's case thinking "omg no wonder I feel sciberbia is acting weird so this is why". I will do as you suggested. @sciberbia I understand you have life responsibilities.. But it'd be a lie if I say I don't mind it. | ||
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zelblade
Australia901 Posts
On June 18 2012 19:12 alan133 wrote: Question: Do people get a message when they are role blocked even they have no roles? Yes. | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9673 Posts
Hopefully no stupidity this time around: @s0Lstice: I'm just observing this game, but unfortunately I might not see the conclusion, since I'm going on a vacation starting on Wednesday. Good luck to both town and Mafia! | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
-Sciberbia posts a list of suspicious people, but only talks about one of them, in order to gauge reactions on the rest. + Show Spoiler + How's this for motivation? It takes time to write shit. He felt the strongest about suki (this is clear in his post) and wanted to get his thoughts out there as fast as possible to be digested. He even states a reason, the case on suki was the freshest in his mind. -Soft defense of HeavOnEarth at the end of his accusation. + Show Spoiler + HeavOnEarth was the third most suspicious suspect on his list. Why is it strange that he provides reasons that counter some of the scummy things he saw? If he is concluding a person is 'somewhat suspicious,' there are naturally things he is going to see as possibly town, but sees them as overridden by the scummy points. Also, just because I used certain posts to paint HeavOnEarth as scummy doesn't mean that someone else can interpret them in a different way. My words are not law. -Posting a list of people's convictions leading up to the lynch. + Show Spoiler + Have a look: On May 21 2012 16:45 sciberbia wrote: all times EST indifferent - sciberbia, golden, solstice not heard from - mufaa, shiaopi hegeo - can stay on until 6pm Milton - starts work at 7pm mordan - starts work at 8pm release - can't get on until 7pm Looks to me like 7:30pm EST makes the most sense. Any earlier is nice for hegeo, milton, and mordan, but it would really screw over release. Any later is slightly beneficial to release, but detrimental to hegeo, milton, and mordan. If the deadline is indeed 7:30, we should just be aware that a couple people might be gone for the last hour or so, and not to wait until the last minute for a roleclaim or anything. Thoughts on 7:30pm EST? Especially mufaa and shiaopi? On May 24 2012 07:09 sciberbia wrote: Hour and a half to the deadline. We really need to decide on a target. I've been accumulating a list of everyone's opinion on whether to lynch shiaopi, milton, or hegeo, and it looks something like this: sciberbia: milton, hegeo, then shiaopi golden: milton, hegeo, then shiaopi shiaopi: milton, then hegeo, not shiaopi mordanis: hegeo, then milton/shiaopi release: hegeo, then milton, then shiaopi solstice: shioapi, hegeo, then milton milton: shioapi hegeo: shioapi, then milton mufaa: ............ Feel free to correct me if I've misrepresented your views. I propose that shioapi is out of the running. He is primarily accused by the two other lynch candidates, as well as solstice. He is viewed as least scummy of the three by me, golden, mordanis, and release On the other hand, milton has 3 votes, and release said he would also be quite interested in voting for him. He is about the same as shiaopi in mordanis's eyes. Hegeo is the primary target of release and mordanis, and is also considered moderately suspicious by all the people we aren't considering lynching. Can we agree to focus on milton vs hegeo? He makes a very similar list in the pre-game, trying to get everyone on board with a deadline time. Then, in-game, he makes exactly the same type of list you are calling scummy. Guess what color sciberbia was in this game? It rhymes with spleen. It doesn't matter if you think it's helpful or not, it's clear that he thinks it's helpful. -Sciberbia is active in the night, and posts his case on roflewaffles after Crossfire and Alan post that they think he is suspicious. + Show Spoiler + It's true being active at night is something scum do, because they have no fear of being killed. Sciberbia has been playing this game to win, he will be active when he has time because he wants to win. There is definite town motivation for this. I've been posting a lot on N2, am I scummy? For the second part of that, last I checked, town wants to kill scum. Very easy town motivation here. The bussing scenario here is far less likely. -Sciberbia goes from being ambivalent about a second vigi claim to adamant about a second vigi claim. + Show Spoiler + Lots of bad logic here. Crossfire seems to have overall a high opinion of sciberbia as a player. Now, what kind of idiot scum would flat out say, with blue color, hey you blues out there claim! It doesn't fit with the rest of your case, because it's heavy handed. Your other points suggest he is being careful, calculating. You say he is against vigilante claiming. This is false, plain and simple. He did care, the discussion was about when. Put another way, he wanted the vigi to claim, but he thought it would be better if the claim came later. He had to think about the ramifications of there being two vigilantes, but he flat out says that is is unlikely. Why is it strange then that he calls for a counter claim if one exists? He wants to win, and a counter claim would have basically wrapped the game up. There is one point here that I agree with, and that is it was pretty weird for him, having realized that there may be a second vigilante, asks for that second guy to claim. Everyone can make of this what they will, but I think this was just a townie slip of logic. He kind of mind-fucked himself with the idea that there were two vigi's, and goofed. -Sciberbia asks me what I think of Miltonkram on N2. + Show Spoiler + There is possible scum motivation here, I grant that. I see town motivation too. Look at the situation at that time. We were struggling with a situation, forcing ourselves to consider that the impossible was possible. A thought struck him that we have been auto-clearing Miltonkram because his filter looks pretty green. But, if we are forcing ourselves to consider the impossible, Milton is fair game. He had this passing thought and posted it. Is this really that unlikely for a town-person to do? I say no. -Sciberbia, seeing my opinion, posts a case on Miltonkram. + Show Spoiler + Same explanation. We, at that time, were imagining what was going to happen in the game provided suki flipped town, which, at the time, seemed pretty impossible. Why is it weird that he is making a full effort at considering all possibilities? Same town motivation. -Sciberbia tries to dissect night actions. + Show Spoiler + Obvious town motivation. Go look at the post game analysis of NMM XVII. Many of the experienced players posting there say it is a mistake to not devote some time to analyzing night actions. It can devolve into WIFOM if you aren't careful, but that doesn't mean the analysis isn't useful. Suki also makes an excellent point about NMM XVI. If the remaining players had analyzed night actions more, they would have seen a big red arrow pointing at Xatalos, who was the last scum. Analyzing night actions is another tool in the townie tool box. Easy town motivation here. So to sum up, I see a single point that could look scummy, and that request for the second vigi to claim if there is one. One, single, point. Do not make the mistake of falling prey to confirmation bias. If you look at sciberbia's filter like I have, first with the idea that he is town, and next with the idea that he is scum, I guarantee you will think the first way is more logical. Ok, done with that. Now, I had a HUGE epiphany while writing that, and I'm certain it will lead us to a D3 win. Here's a preview: it doesn't involve lynching Suki D3, it involves killing Unforgiven_ve | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
Zelblade, can you tell Xatalos to edit that last post out? | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
@ s0Lstice Yes, I am a bit surprised.  @ sciberbia I'm pretty exhausted. Had to work an extremely long shift. If I feel like I'm about to get mislynched or people have questions about what motivated any of my posts I'll defend myself/answer questions. I will answer your question about my breadcrumbing comment. Please pardon me if my posting is a little incoherent. I'm really tired. You had been commenting quite a bit on blue role play and I thought I needed to add my two cents. I was trying to figure out ways for us to get enough confirmed town players to make it impossible for scum to win. At first I was thinking about the possibility of confirming two townies if we had a jailkeeper. One would claim they were RB'd and the jailer would show us his/her breadcrumb. I thought of what could go wrong after I posted my advice. What if we had a scum RBer and they breadcrumbed their action and used this to become confirmed town? My mind kind of exploded then. I was also thinking of confirming town players through a cop, but that would require this game not to be a setup with double godfathers. I find that a distinct possibility (if we have a cop) because I could see prplhz making a setup that is basically a "fuck you" to town players who rely too much on blue roles. Does this make sense? Basically my thoughts were chasing themselves around in circles and I didn't think all the possibilities through when I posted my breadcrumbing comment. I'm hoping everyone ignored it. Edit: I wrote this last night but my internet went out. Posting it now. Just so you know, I'm not going to waste a ton of time defending myself. I'd much prefer to scumhunt. Suki seems like the most logical lynch candidate for this upcoming day cycle. I'd prefer not to spend an entire day with the focus on her. I'll be rereading the thread to see if there is anything people missed. Analysis will be on it's way in a little while. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
I'll start with the point that Xatalos gave away Look at how reluctant the mods are to kill this player. No vote on D1 from Mouldy Jeb, he gets replaced. No vote on D2 from Unforgiven, he gets a warning. Is the last scum going to get mod-killed, resulting in a town win? Doubtful.Now let's look at Mouldy Jeb I'll start with another game he was in, where he was town. Here are some select posts. On May 21 2012 18:37 Mouldy Jeb wrote: hi- now my presence is known. saying "get rid of a veteran" indicates that you are worried that an experienced Mafia player will either weasel you out~ if your mafia or kill you if you are not so due to this rash decision to get rid of competition so on that note #vote:Nova_Terra On May 22 2012 22:22 Mouldy Jeb wrote: early game i suspected nova because of rash decision making from his part and myself assuming the worst, matchew voting for me which wasn't given a viable explanation so i would be inclined to vote for matchew due to his random train of thought against others ## vote:mattchew He explains his reads here, then takes a firm stance with a vote. Look at this game: On June 13 2012 22:47 Mouldy Jeb wrote: you are suppose to be playing seriously if not then that would create the cloud of assumption that you are indeed scum random votes are related to scummy tactics so I already have my suspicions of you. also my suspicions of roflewaffles are slight but i have no further evidence that is incriminating him On June 14 2012 00:20 Mouldy Jeb wrote: nope roffle that was a gut feeling about you that why I stated I have no evidence On June 14 2012 00:29 Mouldy Jeb wrote: my personal opinion so far, would be to keep tabs on miltontkram this is due to the fact that he randomly voted ( yes yes, its all fun and games until a misslynch) I also do agree with suki on the "sketchy" behaviour of rofl but contradicting myself I feel you have raised some good points of scummy behaviour in your long post and crossfire seems to be lurking. His reasoning is pretty weak in both games, but it's far weaker in this game. The baseless suspicion of roflewaffles is very, very telling. Looks like newb scum trying to appear like he is pressuring his teammate. The most important thing, however, is no votes. It doesn't match, and it's scummy. Now, move to Unforgiven. He has been useless this game, except for a weak bus on roflwaffles, which gives him just a smidge of town credit. Maybe enough to keep him off the radar while he lurks with purpose. On June 16 2012 03:09 Unforgiven_ve wrote: In case i die, my 2 "best" reads (so far) are austincc and roflwaffles55. They were trying to push a lynch on Crossfire, seeing as this wasnt working they decided a Bus from roflwaffles55 and austin will kept his target "just in case". We still have 6 more hours till night ends right? Look at how he dances around austin: On June 16 2012 06:04 Unforgiven_ve wrote: ebwop: i want to point out im not making a conclusive acussation on austin, i just want you guys to analize a little how he is playing. This is just after he said his two main suspects were roflewaffles and austin. Now let's look at other games. NMM XV comes to mind. His filter is big, so I'll just highlight a few points. On June 02 2012 05:27 Unforgiven_ve wrote: im not a fan of this, but im gonna do it... TOWN please, VOTE FOR SUKI, im pretty sure he is mafia!! I bet he is confortably sitting waiting for Ange777 to get lynched or a No Lynch at best. Xatalos, if you arent mafia, please do this, a vigi can check me at night (if mafia dont kill me before) On June 05 2012 06:45 Unforgiven_ve wrote: It's too late for me to try and convince you guys to change your votes, i think vivax will flip town, his last post voting for himself doesnt help tho. Guys, because i think im right about heist, maybe i will die this night, the only thing in my favor is being a terrible poster (they killed s0Lstice for being good=, maybe they want me to be alive to get more people confused. You are understimating the proof against heist, i still think there's a ver high change that heist and xatalos are mafia, i see they are playing a pretty standard "active" mafia, dodging attacks and siding whit the mayority (not before making his "preference" obvious to the town) triying to gaing some town credit. Right now i would kill heist, the way he started to play the game and how he acted around the suki lynch are my main motivation. This posts and screams mafia for me. On June 06 2012 07:51 Unforgiven_ve wrote: ##Vote heist, im not gonna spend more time explaining something so obvious Again, just like MJ, the tone does not match. He is sure-footed and comes down hard on his reads. Here, not so much. I feel like this post is getting pretty big, so I won't pull quotes from NMM XIII, but go have a look. He was scum in that game, and he lurked with purpose. He bussed teammates as well. It looks A LOT like what's happening in this game. That leads me to my next point. This game, right now, feels a lot like XIII. The scum lurked, and town tore itself to pieces, destroying the people with content (who were all town) one by one. It's been a seemingly insurmountable task to find the last scum in this game, and we've already started the process of slowly cannibalizing ourselves. It seems insurmountable because we (I) cleared the last scum based on bussing arguments. A wise man (thanks Marv!) told me in coaching PM's that bussing is only illogical for scum if it causes a scumbuddy to be lynched. When HeavOnEarth and roflewaffles bussed MJ, was there seriously any chance that he was getting lynched that day? No. Emphatically no. Them bussing him was not illogical, it was smart. Look at the confusion it caused. I bet Greymist has been in that scum QT insisting that they not be afraid to call each other out, and he was right of course. I'll even add NK analysis for the cherry on top. Why are our strong town reads still alive? Because we have been completely, utterly, wrong since Day 2 began. Unforgiven was free to blue snipe as he pleased (austin could look blue, no? he is cautious like a blue), because the big talkers were all wrong. Also, remember how the night action was so late? It's because Unforgiven has been busy, like he said. It all makes sense! FINALLY!!!!! Please let's kill Unforgiven_ve on day 3 and be done with this game. I want to feel the sweet taste of victory. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
[QUOTE]On June 14 2012 09:32 HeavOnEarth wrote: was sort of waiting for MJ to post something after he was like hurr durr ima post soon. i took a look at his previous game though and his posts seem consistent from when he was townie. hes really not helping at all, and definitely still looks scum, but it feels like poor town play rather than mafia. Tell me this doesn't sound like newb scum talking about a teammate. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
still <3 you xD | ||
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Crossfire99
United States1529 Posts
). I only decided to look into sciberbia once i saw in his filter him trying to get a second vigi to claim and his question early this night. As I wrote the whole thing up, I realized that he is playing very townie and there is no way he is scum, but I decided to post my case anyway to get some reactions. Since I'm not not going to be around close to the deadline, I have to post this now which is unfortunate because I was hoping more people would have to respond to it, but oh well.I also agree with you solstice about unforgiven. I specifically called him out earlier because MJ/he hadn't really contributed and I figured I could get a pretty good read on him, since I was his scum buddy in NMM XIII. So I'm all on board an unforgiven lynch tomorrow unless he pulls some crazy good analysis showing why someone is the last scum (I doubt it though, I'm almost 100% positive everyone else is town lol). We'll see if I live through the night... | ||
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