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![[image loading]](http://i110.photobucket.com/albums/n99/chuiu/TLmafia_new.png)
zelblade is helping me co-host this game. Any questions can be directed towards him or myself.
These good people have volunteered to coach for this game! Do not hesitate to PM them with any questions you might have about how to play this game. They're here to be (ab)used!
The valiant Sir marvellosity
The taciturn Lord Blazinghand
The brave Knight EchelonTee
The sinister Count GreYMisT coaches only scum!
Newbie Mini Mafia XVII
+ Show Spoiler [Important Posts] +
Introduction:
Mafia is an educated guessing game of epic proportions. The objective of the game is to lynch or kill all mafia members before they outnumber the rest of the town. It's much like a game of poker because mafia members are also part of the town during the day and may manipulate the vote to their liking. If the mafia at any time outnumber or equal the townspeople, they win. The town's goal is to lynch all the members of the mafia.
The game is typically very active, so the thread will get big quickly. However, it is essential to read the thread to play the game. If you do not have the time or patience to read the whole thread, do not play.
Rules:
Cheating:
Cheating includes (but is not limited to):
1. Posting after death. You may have one polite goodbye post, but it may not contain any potentially game-changing information.
2. Ruining the game by doing something like hand out your mafia's member list to the town.
3. Logging on to someone else's account to get their role or looking over someone's shoulder to get their role.
4. Comparing role PM times to determine roles.
5. Posting screenshots of anything
6. Posting or sharing any PM you receive from a host.
7. Purposely getting yourself modkilled.
8. Signing up more than once using smurf accounts.
9. Betting items outside of the game in exchange for in-game benefits.
10. Sharing accounts with other players.
11. Breadcrumbing the specific phrasing of your role PM. Do not compare the phrasing in your role PM to prove your alignment. You can claim the abilities you have, but you can't use the specific phrasing of your role PM.
12. Posting a false role PM phrased as if you received it from the host. You can still fake roleclaim, but you cannot make it look like you are posting a PM you received from the host.
If you cheat then you will be banned.
Posting:
Mod Font:
This is mod font. It is reserved for moderators. Please do not use it.
Question Font:
This is question font. Use it to ask the host/cohost questions about the rules. Please do us a favor and read the rules before you ask anything. You can also PM the question to host/cohost in which case you don't have to use this font.
Activity:
You must post in this thread once per day/night cycle and vote every day while you are alive. If you fail to do so, you will be modkilled.
Smurfs:
No smurfs.
Spam:
Spam is not tolerated, nor is any off-topic material. Do not discuss Proleague here. Do not talk about Starcraft II here. Play Mafia here. This is as much a rule as it is a good advice to town.
Editing:
Editing is not allowed for any reason. This is the one part of the site where it is okay to be double posting, even triple-posting. While I ask for everybody to post as concisely as possible, post again if you have to edit anything.
Inappropriate posts:
If you want to post something insulting or inappropriate and know the TL mods would have a problem with it elsewhere, don't post it here. The hosts have the final say on what is inappropriate. If you do not like how someone is talking to you, please PM host/cohost, flamewheel, or Mig before involving the TL staff. If you are unsatisfied with how the situation is resolved, then you can appeal to the TL staff normally.
I'm going to warn you if you're being excessively unpleasant towards other players. If you disregard my warning then I'm going to modkill you. This is not DotA2.
Reporting posts:
The report button is a nice feature for regular TL, but not for this forum. We prefer to deal with things in house if possible to avoid confusion among the TL staff. If you have a problem with how someone is posting, talk to the host/cohost, flamewheel, or Mig before using your report button. Please do not use your report button for anything other than inappropriate posts which you feel are not being dealt with adequately.
Ban discussions:
Don't talk about how you think host/cohost should handle a situation until after the game. If you have a problem then PM host/cohost.
Play to win.
This means you play your best to help your team win while you are alive and in the game. However, this does not mean that you should try to win by being a jerk to the other players so they all want to quit playing.
This also means that you cannot leave the game without a good reason without a ban. These situations will be dealt with on a case by case basis. PM your host if you need to leave the game.
You have been warned.
Out of thread communication:
It is common for mafia (and town circles if PMs are allowed) to use a medium outside of TL such as QuickTopics or IRC to communicate during the game. Please be mindful that other players may be more tech savvy than you and they may attempt impersonate members of your team or attempt to infiltrate your chat. You use these media at your own risk.
Furthermore, I consider it cheating if you intentionally try to find out who is mafia by trying to find their QuickTopic or entering their IRC channel or similar. Don't do it.
Voting rules:
1. Voting is done in this thread. Do not PM me your vote.
2. Please vote in the following format: ##Vote Qatol. Votes not done in the correct fashion might not be counted. Host/cohost will update vote counts whenever we feel like it.
3. No conditional voting.
4. You may vote for yourself. You may not vote for anyone dead or outside the game.
5. In the event of a tie the person with the most votes first wins (or loses).
6. Voting is mandatory. You may NOT abstain.
Signups:
This game is open to people with less than three four three games played on this subforum. First come first served. Whatever, we're full!
Game-specific rules:
Modkills:
This game follows the TL Mafia Ban List. If you are modkilled, your punishment will go beyond being eliminated from this game. Please refer to it for questions about your punishment. If you want to use this game to sit out your ban, please PM flamewheel or post in the Ban List.
Replacements
This game uses replacements. If a player wishes to be replaced then he must stop posting in the game and send a PM to host and cohost. If a player is modkilled then he will be replaced.
Clues:
There are no clues anywhere.
PMs
PMs are not allowed in this game.
Time Cycle:
This game will follow a (24 hour night/48 day hour) cycle. Any votes/actions that are not in host and cohost hands before deadline will be disregarded. Currently the deadline is 23:00 GMT (+00:00), but that may be subject to change.
Credits:
Thanks to anyone who has ever hosted a game. This list grows ever longer.
Thanks to zelblade for cohosting.
Thanks to everyone who helped balance this game.
Thanks to the coaches. No seriously, they're awesome.
If you have not read all the rules then you cannot join this game and you will be subject to modkill or worse if you join it anyway.
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The Setup
This is a semi-open setup. You will know which roles may appear in the game but not the number. Well, there is at least one vanilla townie. But that's all you know.
Role PMs:
Vanilla Townie
The most fantastic role to get in mafia! Your only tools are your sharp mind and your perseverance. Oh, and you can vote for the lynch like everybody else.
Cop
You are a cop or a detective or whatever. At night you can (and it's strongly recommended that you take advantage of this) message the host and cohost the name of one of your fellow players and we will tell you his alignment. Oh, and you can vote for the lynch like everybody else.
Medic
You are a medic. You are blessed with healing hands which you may lay upon one of your fellow players each night. This will protect them from one hit, be it scum or vigilante. Just message the host and cohost with your target and he'll be protected. Oh, and you can vote for the lynch like everybody else.
Veteran
You are a veteran. Many years of practice getting shot has rendered your partially immune to it. While everybody else only has a single night life, you have two. Oh, and you can vote for the lynch like everybody else.
Jailkeeper
You are a jailkeeper. Not only do you keep the jail, you also get to throw people in it. Every night you can PM the name of a player to the host and cohost and this player cannot be target of any other night actions but he cannot use his own night action either. Oh, and you can vote for the lynch like everybody else.
1-shot Vigilante
You are a 1-shot vigilante. Many years of practice shooting people has rendered you capable of shooting people. Unfortunately, you're almost out of bullets at this point. You actually only have one bullet left, so use it with care. PM the name of your target to host and cohost and this player will get shot. Oh, and you can vote for the lynch like everybody else.
Goon
You are a goon. You can't do much other than bleed red. You and your scum buddies can communicate in this quicktopic. Oh, and you can vote for the lynch like everybody else.
Godfather
You are a godfather. You are the head of the mafia and as such you don't have to get your hands real dirty. When cops check you out, they will erroneously think that you're innocent! Muahahaha! You and your scum buddies can communicate in this quicktopic. Oh, and you can vote for the lynch like everybody else.
Roleblocker
You are a roleblocker. You block roles. Each night you can PM the name of one of your fellow players and he will practically not have a role for the purpose of that night. You and your scum buddies can communicate in this quicktopic. Oh, and you can vote for the lynch like everybody else.
Town wins when there are no more scum.
Scum wins when they outnumber town or nothing can prevent this from happening.
Scum KP is fixed at 1.
It takes #/2 rounded up votes to lynch somebody. In case of a tie, the person who got there first gets the prize.
The Players
- suki filter
- sciberbia filter
- austinmcc filter
- s0Lstice filter
- roflwaffles55 filter
- trackd00r filter
- Crossfire99 filter
- Miltonkram filter
Mouldy Jeb filter replaced by Unforgiven_ve filter
- alan133 filter
- O.Golden_ne filter
- HeavOnEarth filter
+ Show Spoiler [Flips] +
There are 2 out of 9 town players left.
There are 1 out of 3 scum players left.
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shamelessly stole this from EchelonTee. thanks mate!
Newbie-specific stuff
1.) It's already in the rules, but remember, no editing. If you feel you must correct your post, please make a second post to clarify your statements. You may put EBWOP ("Edit by way of post," a handy acronym invented by semioldguy) at the beginning of your post to indicate that you are clearing up a point you made. If your EBWOP post is several posts after your original, please quote your original post in your EBWOP post for the sake of clarity.
2.) Only sign up if you know you will have the time available to properly play the game. It is essential that players remain active in a newbie game, so only /in if you are able to play to your fullest.
3.) If there is any sort of issue, you are unsure about some mechanic, or you are just wondering if your devilish scheme is even allowed, feel free to PM me, or ask in-thread with green text. Don't feel shy; these games are meant to be a place to learn and be open.
4.) Behave as gentlemen (or ladies). Things get heated here, but personal attacks will not be acceptable, and will be dealt with accordingly. Remember, this is a game; have fun and happy scumhunting!
Useful Guides
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ninja /in ! I was on the list before I even posted in the thread! >D
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Is this newbie game specifically meant to be for players with less than three games played? Most of the other newbie games have been three or fewer, was hoping to get another one in.
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technically your last game was only a half game too, austin =>
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To be fair, I took that post from one of the earlier Newbie games, just editing some of the points xp
Here are some other good guides that have greatly influenced my play.
Guide to being Awesome
How to Tunnel like a Pro
disclaimer: Mafiascum plays a different style of Mafia
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On June 12 2012 07:24 austinmcc wrote:
Is this newbie game specifically meant to be for players with less than three games played? Most of the other newbie games have been three or fewer, was hoping to get another one in.
Oh I somehow got the impression that it's three strikes and out. I think it was for me. Anyway, it's four strikes and out now and you're /in 
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
I'm from the government and I'm here to help. PM me with questions on how to play / for coaching.
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woot woot got drafted /in
I have some questions about the setup/roles:
It will be 3 mafia vs 9 townies?
Is either the medic or his target notified of a successful medic save?
Is the veteran notified if he is shot?
Is the jailkeeper notified of a successful save or roleblock?
Is the jailkeeper's target informed of a successful save or roleblock?
Is the mafia roleblocker's target informed that he was roleblocked? If so, will he be told that it was by the mafia roleblocker as opposed to the jailkeeper?
Can you "roleblock" the veteran?
What happens if the jailkeeper and roleblocker target each other and the vigilante shoots the roleblocker?
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
Gonna be obsing this one
Send me the Obs QT please as soon as it is running.
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It will be 3 mafia vs 9 townies?
Yes
Is either the medic or his target notified of a successful medic save?
Medic is told but not his target
Is the veteran notified if he is shot?
Yep
Is the jailkeeper notified of a successful save or roleblock?
Nope
Is the jailkeeper's target informed of a successful save or roleblock?
Jailkeeper's target will just get told that he was roleblocked
Is the mafia roleblocker's target informed that he was roleblocked? If so, will he be told that it was by the mafia roleblocker as opposed to the jailkeeper?
He will be told, but not if it was roleblocker or jailkeeper.
Can you "roleblock" the veteran?
Yep. Roleblocking essentially makes someone roleless for the night.
What happens if the jailkeeper and roleblocker target each other and the vigilante shoots the roleblocker?
Roleblocker takes precedence over jailkeeper who takes precedence over vigilante. Roleblock would block the jailkeeper so roleblocker doesn't get protection and then he'll get shot in the face and likely die.
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/in
sciberbia drafted me XD
this is my 4th newb game. I thought the third would be my last, but I can't not play with my buddies!
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I'd like to play, would be my first game.
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/in
if that's required.. >.>
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On June 12 2012 08:28 roflwaffles55 wrote:
I'd like to play, would be my first game.
It's customary to say "/in" if you to join but I'll make an exception just for you!
-e wat
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Sorry, I saw everyone else doing it so I figured I might have had to..
Thanks! :D
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Oh yay s0lstice and sciberbia :D
i hope we're on the same team this time around T__T
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
To scumteam, make sure solstice gets shot n1 again  that would be 3 games in a row :D
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I won't be able to play, unfortunately, but I'll be observing this game from time to time. Gogo suki, sciberbia, s0Lstice and austinmcc! 
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On June 12 2012 09:07 ShiaoPi wrote:To scumteam, make sure solstice gets shot n1 again that would be 3 games in a row :D
Noooo! Shoo shiaopi xD
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In Nomine
This thread meets my approval. All who would defy its might will suffer divine wrath.
He turned their river into blood;
hey could not drink from their streams.
He sent swarms of flies that devoured them,
and frogs that devastated them.
He gave their crops to the grasshopper,
their produce to the locust.
He destroyed their vines with hail
and their sycamore-figs with sleet.
He gave over their cattle to the hail,
their livestock to bolts of lightning.
He unleashed against them his hot anger,
his wrath, indignation and hostility—
a band of destroying angels.
He prepared a path for his anger;
he did not spare them from death
but gave them over to the plague.
AMEN
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/in
It seems that NMMXVI won't need any replacements at its stage. Count me in this one.
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On June 12 2012 09:07 ShiaoPi wrote:To scumteam, make sure solstice gets shot n1 again that would be 3 games in a row :D
To townteam, if solstice is not shot night 1, you should lynch him day 2 :D
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Oh yeah, for the record guys I am female and I would hereby like to be referred to as 'she' and 'her' .
It was really weird last game having ppl call me 'he'. Not a big deal but still weird.
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On June 12 2012 10:20 sciberbia wrote:Show nested quote +On June 12 2012 09:07 ShiaoPi wrote:To scumteam, make sure solstice gets shot n1 again that would be 3 games in a row :D To townteam, if solstice is not shot night 1, you should lynch him day 2 :D
If I'm scum I'm totally going to shoot myself to psych you out ;D
On June 12 2012 10:43 suki wrote:
Oh yeah, for the record guys I am female and I would hereby like to be referred to as 'she' and 'her' .
It was really weird last game having ppl call me 'he'. Not a big deal but still weird.
And you expect us to believe this sudden femclaim? did you breadcrumb it? + Show Spoiler +
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Normally I would make a post advertising my coaching services, but my players are kinda stuck with me
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arrghh... not enough time to play this game seriously...
But in case a replacement is needed, please contact me!
Heads up to the medic (if there will be one): You will get lynched D1, that's newbie mafia rule No.42
+ Show Spoiler + But you could try to claim blue this time
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/in
I, Milton of the Kram, do solemnly swear to avoid sucking this game. If prplhz, in his knowledge and wisdom, should gaze upon my soul and see scumminess, then I swear not to stupidly scumslip Day 1. If our almighty OP should divine that I am innocent of all crimes and impart the gift of townieness upon me, then shall I pursue my reads with righteous cause and not leaving them unfinished (damn you Xatalooooooosss! ).
And yea, did the town then eat the minstrels. And yea, there was much rejoicing.
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wut some guy hijacking my thread with religious propaganda! i'm telling gmarshal!
Four more and we start!
Why you should get coaching
A quick trip to the TL Mafia Library reveals that in the newbie games we've had so far, there have been 15 scum victories and only 3 town victories. I think this is because when not a lot is done right in a game, scum will end up taking it, and mafia is a really hard game. So take advantage of the coaches, that's why they're here but sadly they are only very rarely used.
So if you have any questions; if you don't know what exactly you should be looking for, if you have an analysis and you want a second opinion, if you are scum and people are starting to get suspicious of you, if you are scum and you don't know who you should eliminate at night: PM one of the coaches. If just to bounce a few ideas around with someone you know you can trust and who has more experience than you then I'm sure it will help you a lot and we have a whopping four coaches for this game.
Yea.
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You should come to me for coaching because I'm cool.
Also, I've never won as town, so I want to win by proxy.
...with that in mind, you should probably go to marv for help -.-
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On June 12 2012 16:36 HeavOnEarth wrote:
Hi, sign me up ! =]
aren't you an old school player?
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On June 12 2012 16:37 EchelonTee wrote:aren't you an old school player?
shhhhhh
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On June 12 2012 09:04 suki wrote:
Oh yay s0lstice and sciberbia :D
i hope we're on the same team this time around T__T
I know what you mean. It's great being on their team, fucking terrifying when they're working against you
Good to see so many familiar faces! Can't wait for this to get started so I can feed my Mafia addictio... uh... I mean... enjoy a wonderfully sporting event with you gents!
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I read some of the old mafia games in TL and find it interesting. I have never played mafia on a forum before so I wanna give it a try.
/in
Questions
Will the game start with Day or Night?
Can medics save themselves?
When will the game start?
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On June 12 2012 18:35 alan133 wrote:
I read some of the old mafia games in TL and find it interesting. I have never played mafia on a forum before so I wanna give it a try.
/in
Get ready to inflate your post count considerably.
Will the game start with Day or Night?
Game starts on day1
Can medics save themselves?
Nope
When will the game start?
Starts at 00:00 GMT (+00:00) as soon as possible after it fills up.
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i would like to
/in
however i have been in 3 games. last game i was modkilled 1st day so i was hoping i could try again. of course its up to the mods.
*hopeful face*
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
I believe you were given a warning and not a game ban because you were apologetic last game, golden.
However you have been replaced in one game and modkilled in another, so it'd be nice to know you had the commitment to see this one through.
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
I'll tell you what worries me most.
BH is described as 'taciturn' which he is clearly not.
I am described as 'valiant' which... :<
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I noticed you didn't say anything about me being the sinister count
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
On June 12 2012 23:55 GreYMisT wrote:
I noticed you didn't say anything about me being the sinister count
Sorry love. That obviously means you are friendly and delightful.
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ahoy there Milton! welcome aboard, glad to see you're in
Golden, we'll just have to make sure you are dead before the weekend starts ;D
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Excited for this game to start, I've been following the other newbie mini mafia and it looks awesome!
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
mafia is all kinds of awesome my friend
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I'm really liking the whole escalation from the start of day 1 with the brief paragraphs and unfounded pressure to the day 2 huge walls of analysis and cases, it's a really cool concept and I'm hoping we can get started tonight!
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
yeah, honestly i still have no idea how the opening period of a game works, lol
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It seems to be based around relying on aggresive players like Release in the last game, he just blindly attacks the first contentless posts and goes with it the whole game. haha
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Wait a second, your fourth game can't be a newbie game. I'm pretty sure of this. So this means that austinmcc can't play. Sorry for me being a derp but rules are rules and you can't play in this game if you have already played in three other games.
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
On June 13 2012 02:26 prplhz wrote:
Wait a second, your fourth game can't be a newbie game. I'm pretty sure of this. So this means that austinmcc can't play. Sorry for me being a derp but rules are rules and you can't play in this game if you have already played in three other games.
The rules recently is you can sign up if you've played 3 games or less. In other words the 4th is ok
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I'm pretty sure I was told that I couldn't play in a newbie game that would be my fourth. If this is really okay then that's good otherwise I'd have to kick austinmcc and s0lstice too (at least).
Okay, fourth game is apparently okay so O.Golden_ne is in and we're starting tonight.
-e Unforgiven_ve apparently played a long time ago but I'll let him in too.
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
 gl hf ladies n gents
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Oh man please please let me be town this game
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
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Oh wow, we filled up so quickly. Figured there would be a couple more days, but np.
For those of you from XV and XIII, I'm hoping to be a little more assertive early this game and also hoping to, y'know, actually have a correct read. Don't give me the reverse-Xatalos where if I get anything right I must be scum.
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EBWOP: where assertive =/= tunnely
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Hoping for town, don't want to start off by being scum, lol I feel like it would be difficult to first game scum.
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There is an observer QuickTopic for those who want it.
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oh phew I thought the roles had already gone out :3
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Yeah being scum first game was really hard on my nerves =<
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this is my second, first game i was lynched day one....watch out bro
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On June 13 2012 02:26 prplhz wrote:
Wait a second, your fourth game can't be a newbie game. I'm pretty sure of this. So this means that austinmcc can't play. Sorry for me being a derp but rules are rules and you can't play in this game if you have already played in three other games.
ohh for real? i used to play like 2 years ago, but i suck ass now , can i still play? lol
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Yeah, the only newbie game I played was my 4th game, actually.
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
On June 13 2012 05:20 Mouldy Jeb wrote:
this is my second, first game i was lynched day one....watch out bro
tis why you start out in Newbie games :D
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On June 13 2012 06:31 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 05:20 Mouldy Jeb wrote:
this is my second, first game i was lynched day one....watch out bro tis why you start out in Newbie games :D
well, I thought he was a smurf LOL
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Meh, I'm so dumb.
Technically you can't join 'cause you've played 4 games but so has Unforgiven_ve. I'm just going to disregard all that 'cause it was quite a while ago for both of you, and then I'm going to stick to what I wrote in the OP: First come, first served. I was just dumb and totally forgot about HeavOnEarth (actually I got you confused with Unforgiven_ve but that's a long and even dumber story).
So I'm going to bump Unforgiven_ve because he was the last to sign up. HeavOnEarth will join instead. I'm sorry for this inconvenience.
Also, you people need to write "/in" (not now, but when you join other games in the future).
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It starts in an hour and a half right? Or are my time zones completely messed up ?
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Do mafia have to shoot each night?
Plurality lynch, yes?
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On June 13 2012 07:35 roflwaffles55 wrote:
It starts in an hour and a half right? Or are my time zones completely messed up ?
Yes, or a little more than an hour from now. Your time zones are not completely messed up.
On June 13 2012 07:43 austinmcc wrote:
Do mafia have to shoot each night?
Plurality lynch, yes?
No they can choose not to shoot if they feel like it.
The second question is excellent. I'm going to use majority lynch instead, or whatever it's called. It's going to take #/2 rounded up votes to lynch somebody. In case of a tie, the person who got there first will be lynched. I'll put this in the OP too.
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I'll seriously try my hardest. If i fail this game, i'll give up for good. <3
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Okay I'm sending out role PMs now. Nobody write anything in this thread until the daypost. If you have a question then PM me.
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Role PMs are all out. If you have a problem then PM me. Game starts in ~20 minutes but no one post until then.
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-
I will take you on a journey. A journey to the home where you have never been, the place you belong but have never seen. A journey into your mind.
You are on a beach, staring into the beautiful sunset. You are barefoot and you feel the hot sand between your toes. But suddenly a nasty seagull appears. Its wings flaps rapidly like those of a hummingbird in rut and its steel beak has been sharpened by the legendary swordsmith Muramasa. It insists that you hand over your valuables of which you have none. You put your arms over your ears and fold you hands behind your head. You close your eyes and scream as loud as you can.
But we're going deeper. Deeper into your mind.
You run through the dunes and into the forest. Around you walk peaceful roes and squirrels cheerfully follow you. They take you to a small pond in the forest where you sit down and rest. But suddenly your animal companions leave you. Next to you is a nefarious branch, leaned nonchalantly against a rotten birch trunk. The branch is gnarled and has bite marks in it and its hideousness leaves you stunned. It falls over and hits you in the forehead leaving a considerable gash. Your eyes widen and you start gasping for air.
But we're going deeper. Deeper into your mind.
You clumsily drag yourself away and exit the forest. You are on the top of a mountain. Below you the majestic eagles soar and below them you see nothing but fluffy clouds. Other peaks breach the white cotton carpet but none of them as high as where you stand. Only the stars surpass you. But suddenly the clouds turn black and the eagles seek shelter. A terrible old man approaches you. A seagull mounts his left shoulder and a branch supports him. He opens his mouth and utters an indescribable sound that leaves you shivering. You have a toothbrush in your hand. He wants you to brush his teeth. He opens his mouth but he has no teeth. Instead, a steady stream of toy cars comes driving out between his thin pale lips. Horrified, you take a step back. You lose your footing and start falling through the mists.
But we're going deeper. Deeper into your mind.
You regain consciousness on a bed of wild flowers. The sun affectionately caresses your face and the birds of the meadow sing for you. You feel invigorated like your entire being has been carefully reconstructed by the gods themselves. You walk through the long grass and enter a five towered castle. Inside, beautiful young maidens dance elegantly about in the celebration of life. You observe them from afar with happiness in your eyes. Suddenly panic strikes on their faces as if they had seen a monster. They quickly scatter and disappear but you fearlessly defy the danger and search for the beast. In the darkest dungeon of the castle you find it. The formless creature stares curiously back at you from beyond the void. You reach out for it. Touching its hand, you feel the cold hard surface of glass.
But we're going deeper...
Oh yea, zelblade the cohost has gone missing. And something about GMarshal the Wicked Puppetmaster too.
Day1 has started!
Ready, set, go!
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Good morning Liquidia! My heart was actually pounding as I looked at my role PM (yes I love this game too much) but I breathed a sigh of relief as I've again rolled town. I hope to convince you all of my noble allegiance with some successful scumhunting over the next few days. But I stand by my belief that a fluffy opening post is more productive than an FOS based off the way someone says hello; especially after obsing D1 of Newbie Mini XVI. So here I am, at it again. Two goals with this post:
1) Share some constructive thoughts
2) Get people talking about something (besides the fact that there is nothing to talk about: see XVI)
6 new newbies and 6 old newbies (my POV) + Show Spoiler +
One of the reasons I'm so excited for this game is that 5 of my buddies from Newbie Mini XV (a very enjoyable game) are back: austinmcc, golden, miltonkram, s0Lstice, suki
We all have some idea of what to expect from each other, so I think this will help us in making reads. However, don't put too much faith in reads based off somebody simply playing different than last game. After all, we are all newbies here and players' strategy and playstyle can change quite a bit in the first few games, whether consciously or not.
To the guys I dont know (roflwaffles55, trackd00r, Crossfire99, Mouldy_Jeb, alan133, heavOnEarth), I suggest that you look through XV if you have some spare time. It'll give you a better grasp on personalities, and let you focus on figuring out who is mafia rather than figuring out who is who.
Inactives and Lurkers+ Show Spoiler +
Chances are at least one person ends up lurking for most of D1, and I'd bet money that somebody will suggest a lurker lynch. I'm willing to lynch lurkers, but I don't want "lynch a lurker" to be the focus D1. This is for several reasons:
-- Focusing on lurkers takes the pressure off mafia. It's not too difficult for mafia to take a stance on a lurker ("he's lurking") nor to make up an excuse for a mislynch ("well he was lurking")
-- From my experience thus far in forum games, lurkers aren't any more or less likely to be mafia than anyone else
-- Also from my experience thus far in forum games, it is totally possible to identify scummy people D1 who actually have a good chance at flipping red
In summary, I ask that you keep lurkers on your mind, but not make them the hot topic of discussion. We should consider lynching them in the absence of better options.
Thoughts on the setup+ Show Spoiler +
Not really a lot of analysis we can do since all we know is there is at least 1 VT. Here is some advice for newbie blues:
Just act like a normal townie with your posts. Don't claim without a really solid reason. If it looks like you might be lynched, don't claim. If you are definitely going to be lynched, you might as well claim, but there's no guarantee that we will believe you (sorry).
@cop
Don't check people that look likely to be Night Killed or that look likely to be lynched without your help. A smart check is on an influential player that you think might be scum, but doesn't look likely to die in the near future (from either lynch or NK).
@medic, jailkeeper, veteran
Pretty self-explanatory. go save lives.
@vigilante
You really don't want to die without using your bullet, but at the same time, your bullet appreciates in value as the game goes on. You have to judge the best moment to shoot. And you should claim after using your shot unless you have a good reason not to.
NL in this setup?+ Show Spoiler +
NL seems like a really bad idea due to the uncertainty of the roles. I can't envision a scenario where it would make sense before the final 4.
So, we have to make sure to get a majority of votes each day. This can be difficult, especially in the beginning, but it is really helpful if you make yourself available in the few hours leading up to the deadline. In general, it's better to lynch a probable townie than to NL. But try not to let it come to that.
Well I think that is quite enough and hopefully prompts some people into posting.. Or you can ignore me and talk about something else. Just post! 48 hours feels shortest on D1.
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Agree except that I'm a little more anti-lurker. In your game, you had a lot of modkills for inactivity, but (apart from heist...and I guess suki) those that weren't modkilled were pretty active.
I think with a little more experience we would have played the game out differently, but take a look at Newbie XIII for the opposite. We had less modkills, but 2/3 the scum team lurking for huge chunks of time, leaving town to point fingers at ourselves until endgame.
I'm not looking to push lurkers early and stay on them for an entire day cycle, killing discussion, but they need to be considered and I'd rather be looking at them on earlier days than when we're close to/at LYLO/MYLO.
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Hello there!
I'm so glad to start another game in TL. Let the scumhunting begin!
Sciberbia: Well, in my case, I don't know anyone of you, so I don't any background of your play. Anyways, it' just a matter of time that me and the rest of the -5 who were not on NMMXV- can see your play style. I'll take a look to that game if I have the time to get and idea.
I won't accept a NO LYNCH unless I believe we may have a serious mislynch coming.
I have this nice feeling that we won't have any inactives/lurkers this game. I think this is the best scenario to push a successful lynch on D1, which even though it's hard, it's possible with everyone's focus and analysis.
Don't be afraid to accuse anyone. If you take too much time to turn your scum-o-meter on, specially close to MYLO, it will be very hard to the rest to listen to your thoughts.
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On June 13 2012 09:25 austinmcc wrote:
-snip
I'm not looking to push lurkers early and stay on them for an entire day cycle, killing discussion, but they need to be considered and I'd rather be looking at them on earlier days than when we're close to/at LYLO/MYLO.
agreed.
NL is bad. Killing lurking is necessary. Lynching scum is great.
Lets get the ball rolling and squeeze out the lurkers early so we can narrow things down later on. Looking forward to scumhunting, i'm happy with the deadline on this as its 10am for me in Aust, which means i'll be able to meet the deadlines for lynching in the mornings a little easier.
I'll try my hardest this game to meet these deadlines and to contribute useful information rather than filler.
Essentially i'm all for an agressive early game. I want to be able to establish some basic reads by the end of Day one, and if theres no-one who's appropriately scummy then we lynch a lurker.
Golden
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Hello again friends, new and old. I'm going to be towning it up again as it happens, and I never get tired of the scumhunt.
Sciberbia, I agree with just about everything you said. One thing I'd add is for the cop to be smart about declaring a successful scum check. Be mindful of what other roles are still in the game, and weigh the sudden danger you put yourself in vs. the value of declaring your check.
Also, all blues should consider breadcrumbing. It could come in handy.
I encourage everyone to check my other games to help you verify my towniness as the game moves forward. I screw up reads just as often as the next guy, but I am pretty active when it comes to case-building and defending people I believe to be town.
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Hey everyone!
Glad I got towned up for my first game, I'm hoping to be able to contribute to the analysis and casebuilding, as well as make some good reads of my own!
I'll read up on the previous game that the 6 of you were a part of to see if I can't make some good calls when it comes time to vote.
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On June 13 2012 09:39 trackd00r wrote:
Hello there!
I'm so glad to start another game in TL. Let the scumhunting begin!
Sciberbia: Well, in my case, I don't know anyone of you, so I don't any background of your play. Anyways, it' just a matter of time that me and the rest of the -5 who were not on NMMXV- can see your play style. I'll take a look to that game if I have the time to get and idea.
I won't accept a NO LYNCH unless I believe we may have a serious mislynch coming.
I have this nice feeling that we won't have any inactives/lurkers this game. I think this is the best scenario to push a successful lynch on D1, which even though it's hard, it's possible with everyone's focus and analysis.
Don't be afraid to accuse anyone. If you take too much time to turn your scum-o-meter on, specially close to MYLO, it will be very hard to the rest to listen to your thoughts.
You would take it upon yourself to stop a lynch if it is against your read?
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Hey all, glad to see we've got a bit of activity already.
In NMM XV we actually had a decent discussion about no-lynches (involving me making a fool of myself) and how they can actually be beneficial in certain setups. That being said, we don't know for certain if we'll have any modkills so we should leave no-lynches off the table until we hit the unlikely scenario that a no-lynch is beneficial for the town.
Town, the best way to contribute is just to get posting. Let everyone know what your thoughts are. Did someone post something suspicious? Let us know about it. Do you think the town is making a bad move? Let us know about it. If a townie lurks he/she is letting down his/her entire team. So don't do it, K? I'm sooooooooper serious. Like sooooper, soooooooooooper serious.
Hey sciberbia, remember this
##Vote: sciberbia
...heh heh heh
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On June 13 2012 10:16 s0Lstice wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 09:39 trackd00r wrote:
Hello there!
I'm so glad to start another game in TL. Let the scumhunting begin!
Sciberbia: Well, in my case, I don't know anyone of you, so I don't any background of your play. Anyways, it' just a matter of time that me and the rest of the -5 who were not on NMMXV- can see your play style. I'll take a look to that game if I have the time to get and idea.
I won't accept a NO LYNCH unless I believe we may have a serious mislynch coming.
I have this nice feeling that we won't have any inactives/lurkers this game. I think this is the best scenario to push a successful lynch on D1, which even though it's hard, it's possible with everyone's focus and analysis.
Don't be afraid to accuse anyone. If you take too much time to turn your scum-o-meter on, specially close to MYLO, it will be very hard to the rest to listen to your thoughts. You would take it upon yourself to stop a lynch if it is against your read?
If I understood correctly, it doesn't mean that I would stop any lynch that I didn't mention on my analysis. Just because I have a candidate for lynch, it doesn't imply that I discard any other possibility.
It's something related to common sense. If any other cases are convincing enough, I'll throw my vote there in the case I can't get a majority. In the other hand, if we end up like RNG lynching (which is a bad idea), any other poster that could be doing silly mistakes, or even a player practically saying ''hey guys, I'm mafia, lynch me'' that's when it goes against my mindset. Any possibility is valuable, but if there is something absurdly wrong, I'll call it, even if that means a no lynch.
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On June 13 2012 09:56 roflwaffles55 wrote:
Hey everyone!
Glad I got towned up for my first game, I'm hoping to be able to contribute to the analysis and casebuilding, as well as make some good reads of my own!
I'll read up on the previous game that the 6 of you were a part of to see if I can't make some good calls when it comes time to vote.
Would you care to comment on the topics sciberbia brought up?
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On June 13 2012 10:46 s0Lstice wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 09:56 roflwaffles55 wrote:
Hey everyone!
Glad I got towned up for my first game, I'm hoping to be able to contribute to the analysis and casebuilding, as well as make some good reads of my own!
I'll read up on the previous game that the 6 of you were a part of to see if I can't make some good calls when it comes time to vote. Would you care to comment on the topics sciberbia brought up?
Sure!
When it comes to lynching lurkers I would agree in that it shouldn't be the focus, and would prefer to lynch someone acting scummy day 1.
As to NL, I am firmly against it and if we can't get a clear majority on scummy-acting folks then we should at least lynch a lurker, especially on D1 and 2.
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I'm off to a concert tonight. I'll be back later and actually contribute. See you gents later!
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Good morning everyone. Looks like the first thing I am going to do in the office is to play mafia on TL. I don't recognize anyone here since this is my first game, well except for s0Lsitce since he is in the game I read. That's my brief introduction, and habitually in the beginning of any game, GLHF.
I am new and am unsure how to proceed with the game, but my current strategy is to wait for more post to come. Currently I have no FoS. That also mean I do not trust anyone yet.
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On June 13 2012 11:03 alan133 wrote:
Good morning everyone. Looks like the first thing I am going to do in the office is to play mafia on TL. I don't recognize anyone here since this is my first game, well except for s0Lsitce since he is in the game I read. That's my brief introduction, and habitually in the beginning of any game, GLHF.
I am new and am unsure how to proceed with the game, but my current strategy is to wait for more post to come. Currently I have no FoS. That also mean I do not trust anyone yet.
What are your thoughts on what's been posted as of yet?
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s0lstice: Is it my idea or you already gained trust from Sciberbia?
I'm off to bed now. Can't do much atm. Will be back in 8 hours ~
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Is it just me or is trackd00r coming off as scummy already?
If I understood correctly, it doesn't mean that I would stop any lynch that I didn't mention on my analysis. Just because I have a candidate for lynch, it doesn't imply that I discard any other possibility.
It's something related to common sense. If any other cases are convincing enough, I'll throw my vote there in the case I can't get a majority. In the other hand, if we end up like RNG lynching (which is a bad idea), any other poster that could be doing silly mistakes, or even a player practically saying ''hey guys, I'm mafia, lynch me'' that's when it goes against my mindset. Any possibility is valuable, but if there is something absurdly wrong, I'll call it, even if that means a no lynch.
This post screams to me that he's trying to be super cautious with his words, so that he'll have a safety net if/when he ever changes a vote or bandwagons on someone else. He throws out some 'obvious' examples of reasons of what wouldn't agree with him, and even mentions that he would follow through on a read, even if it that means a no lynch.
BUT WAIT! Just ONE post previous to that he says this:
I won't accept a NO LYNCH unless I believe we may have a serious mislynch coming.
...
Dude. You try to take a firm stance against something, and then you do the most scummy wishy-washy-ness thing ever the very next post. You're clearly informed about mafia as you brought up the idea of a day 1 RNG lynch, and being against a no lynch is not a difficult or complicated policy to hold. I feel that such a simple logical slip only happens if you're trying to play it safe and keep your options open.
##vote trackd00r
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Also in response to sciberbia's first post:
I'll be pressing for a scum lynch over a lurker lynch on day 1. As we saw in newbie mafia XV, several of our players (the least active ones) were either replaced or modkilled over day 1 and day 2, yet a lot of the discussion was focused on whether or not to lynch them.
Also related to XV, we should absolutely avoid a Day 1 NL. Me getting lynched on Day 1 provided most of the ammunition and clues that were used to nail heist on Day 3 and could have nailed Xatalos had he not played an excellent game after his Day 1 blunders.
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On June 13 2012 11:12 roflwaffles55 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 11:03 alan133 wrote:
Good morning everyone. Looks like the first thing I am going to do in the office is to play mafia on TL. I don't recognize anyone here since this is my first game, well except for s0Lsitce since he is in the game I read. That's my brief introduction, and habitually in the beginning of any game, GLHF.
I am new and am unsure how to proceed with the game, but my current strategy is to wait for more post to come. Currently I have no FoS. That also mean I do not trust anyone yet. What are your thoughts on what's been posted as of yet?
On the inactive/lurkers lynch
+ Show Spoiler +
I believe inactive players/lurkers are generally anti-town/bad town play in any mafia game, so lynching them isn't a bad idea (Since I believe d1 lynch is good, refer below), if there aren't better candidates of course.
On the day 1 lynch/no lynch
+ Show Spoiler +
I agree on lynching day 1 based on my experience with other mafia games (outside TL) with similar setup. By reading other games on TL I also notice the current meta game is to lynch when there are more players, as it gives townies clues.
I am off to lunch, will be commenting on my thoughts later as I see some interesting posts/votes already.
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when I played some mafia last weeknd @ mlg scum nearly always won. town was unsure of how to play and therefore kept their opinions to themselves, contribute nothing. THIS IS BAD
if town has no discussion, scum wins by manipulating the lynches in their favor. so not only should everyone be talking, give us something useful. who do u think is mafia? it does not matter if your suggestions are completely bad
during day 1/2 we just need more information and things such as your suspicions and what you're thinking is information.
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Alright it's been 5 hours and we've heard from 10 players. Pretty good activity, which is really important on D1. But I think we're done with introductions and we've thoroughly covered policy. Townies, it's time to get mean and start calling people out! Differentiate yourselves from the scum by doing some legit analysis and stating your honest reads.
That said, I'm interested in hearing opinions of suki's post on trackd00r. What do you all think of suki's analysis?
Here are my own thoughts on trackd00r+ Show Spoiler +
suki's main accusation is that trackd00r contradicted himself. I didn't find his posts to be the easiest reading, but as far as I can tell he is reasonably consistent. His stance is that NL is a very bad idea and that he would only promote NL if the alternative lynch was terribad. I'd be interested to hear him clarify.
I think suki twisted his words, or at least misinterpreted them. trackd00r said " if there is something absurdly wrong, I'll call it, even if that means a no lynch." and suki summarized this as "mentions that he would follow through on a read, even if it that means a no lynch". I don't think that's what he said.
I would concede that his first couple posts are a bit hard to follow. But poor wording is not a scumtell. I don't see a "logical slip" as suki put it. Maybe she could put it more clearly for me.
Anyways, I'm off to sleep soon. Over the next 24 hours, I'd like to see some accusations and opinions on other people's accusations. It'd be nice to have some lynch candidates on the table ~20 hours before the deadline, so we have plenty of time to debate who we should actually lynch, as well as hear everyone's opinion on the primary lynch candidate(s).
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My thoughts on suki's case:
+ Show Spoiler +Any possibility is valuable, but if there is something absurdly wrong, I'll call it, even if that means a no lynch. I won't accept a NO LYNCH unless I believe we may have a serious mislynch coming. I started writing before I refresh and saw s0lstice's post. As he already pointed it out, there are no contradictions between the two statements. trackd00r merely states that NL is bad unless it is a "serious" mislynch in both highlighted sentence. If I am missing something, please correct me.
Also, Miltonkram:
+ Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 10:35 Miltonkram wrote:
Hey all, glad to see we've got a bit of activity already.
In NMM XV we actually had a decent discussion about no-lynches (involving me making a fool of myself) and how they can actually be beneficial in certain setups. That being said, we don't know for certain if we'll have any modkills so we should leave no-lynches off the table until we hit the unlikely scenario that a no-lynch is beneficial for the town.
Town, the best way to contribute is just to get posting. Let everyone know what your thoughts are. Did someone post something suspicious? Let us know about it. Do you think the town is making a bad move? Let us know about it. If a townie lurks he/she is letting down his/her entire team. So don't do it, K? I'm sooooooooper serious. Like sooooper, soooooooooooper serious.
Hey sciberbia, remember this
##Vote: sciberbia
...heh heh heh
Is it me or you are not actually + Show Spoiler +soooooooooooooooooper serious ? I personally think (well played) townies are not the ones that bluffs around, let alone voting someone without any reason at all? Generally, fooling around, to me, is anti-town/ bad town play.
My current opinion
+ Show Spoiler +FMPOV, suki's case was most probably based on a misunderstanding, but (s)he could very well did it intentionally hoping for a bandwagon leading to a mislynch. Note that I am merely listing the possibilities, I do not FoS anyone yet, which can also mean that I do not trust anyone yet.
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Question.
I would like to know, about the setup. It says "You will know which roles may appear in the game but not the number", does it mean it is possible to have, for an extreme example:
3 godfather, 8 cops, 0 medics, 0 vet, 0 jailer, 0 vig and 1 VT?
I know this is an extremely imbalanced setup but I just want to know if I can assume:
a) Not all roles will be given.
b) Not all roles are unique (more than 1)
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@alan
Just making a bit of a joke. I was referencing our last game together, NMM XV, when I voted for sciberbia in one of my very first posts on D1. You're right though, spending too much time joking around does not promote a pro-town environment. From here on out I'm 100% serious and in scumhunting mode.
##unVote: sciberbia
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On June 13 2012 15:59 alan133 wrote:
Question.
I would like to know, about the setup. It says "You will know which roles may appear in the game but not the number", does it mean it is possible to have, for an extreme example:
3 godfather, 8 cops, 0 medics, 0 vet, 0 jailer, 0 vig and 1 VT?
I know this is an extremely imbalanced setup but I just want to know if I can assume:
a) Not all roles will be given.
b) Not all roles are unique (more than 1)
You cannot assume anything. The setup has been balanced though and should leave a fair chance for either side to win and both sides to have fun.
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Ok I have this thought in my head I need to get out there before I go to bed.
Trackd00r has made some mildly controversial statements regarding reads and no-lynches. I'm assuming he's a fairly experienced player given the knowledge he's demonstrated of the game. If he's experienced enough he would know that making a statement to this effect, "I'd prefer a no-lynch over a lynch on someone who I'm almost sure is town," would catch him some flak. I'm reading this as town... well... town or fucking ballsy scum. I won't immediately clear him of suspicion. Attacking someone for expressing such an opinion on the other hand...
Suki has been painting track's two posts as directly contradictory even though they aren't. This could be an overzealous town play but I don't think it is. What possible motivation could there be for a strong attack on someone with a controversial opinion? Firstly, there's the chance that the town might bandwagon on it. This would be the best possible scenario for suki if she is scum. She leads a bandwagon D1 and she gets a mislynch. Secondly, she gains town cred for appearing aggressive even if she doesn't get the lynch. It seems like a win/win scenario for scum unless of course someone makes the analysis I'm making now.
In summary, the case on trackd00r is pure crap. Making a controversial statement is not a scumtell. I think suki is trying to cover her scumminess by appearing aggressive without making a good case.
Night all! I'll be back in the morning. Leave me something to come back to.
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On June 13 2012 15:40 alan133 wrote:
My thoughts on suki's case:
I started writing before I refresh and saw s0lstice's post. As he already pointed it out, there are no contradictions between the two statements. trackd00r merely states that NL is bad unless it is a "serious" mislynch in both highlighted sentence. If I am missing something, please correct me.
Looks like you intented to write something else about me, but a single post of S0lstice made your opinion change quite quickly, very quickly IMO.
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@Suki:
+ Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 12:44 suki wrote:Is it just me or is trackd00r coming off as scummy already? Show nested quote +
If I understood correctly, it doesn't mean that I would stop any lynch that I didn't mention on my analysis. Just because I have a candidate for lynch, it doesn't imply that I discard any other possibility.
It's something related to common sense. If any other cases are convincing enough, I'll throw my vote there in the case I can't get a majority. In the other hand, if we end up like RNG lynching (which is a bad idea), any other poster that could be doing silly mistakes, or even a player practically saying ''hey guys, I'm mafia, lynch me'' that's when it goes against my mindset. Any possibility is valuable, but if there is something absurdly wrong, I'll call it, even if that means a no lynch.
This post screams to me that he's trying to be super cautious with his words, so that he'll have a safety net if/when he ever changes a vote or bandwagons on someone else. He throws out some 'obvious' examples of reasons of what wouldn't agree with him, and even mentions that he would follow through on a read, even if it that means a no lynch.BUT WAIT! Just ONE post previous to that he says this: Show nested quote +I won't accept a NO LYNCH unless I believe we may have a serious mislynch coming. ... Dude. You try to take a firm stance against something, and then you do the most scummy wishy-washy-ness thing ever the very next post. You're clearly informed about mafia as you brought up the idea of a day 1 RNG lynch, and being against a no lynch is not a difficult or complicated policy to hold. I feel that such a simple logical slip only happens if you're trying to play it safe and keep your options open. ##vote trackd00r
It would have been a better read if you realized that I was answering a question. Your case really lacks a solid basis, and as other people stated above, I don't see contradiction.
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I don't read those posts as contradictory, believe the second one clarifies the first and explains that, while he'd consider a NL, the standard is higher than "Town is lynching someone that isn't one of my top couple reads."
That said, even if the two statements are entirely contradictory, I don't really see anything scummy in that. More inclined to see contradictions concerning votes and reads as scummy, where someone has stated one thing but then has to take a party line, rather than super early statements concerning a no lynch. There's no agenda to push on that issue.
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I woke up this morning to the arguments made towards trackd00r, and while the arguments made against him weren't particularly convincing, his defense was a little bit lackluster as well.
However, I would like to bring your attention to someone else that is acting quite scummy as it stands.
On June 13 2012 13:05 alan133 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 11:12 roflwaffles55 wrote:On June 13 2012 11:03 alan133 wrote:
Good morning everyone. Looks like the first thing I am going to do in the office is to play mafia on TL. I don't recognize anyone here since this is my first game, well except for s0Lsitce since he is in the game I read. That's my brief introduction, and habitually in the beginning of any game, GLHF.
I am new and am unsure how to proceed with the game, but my current strategy is to wait for more post to come. Currently I have no FoS. That also mean I do not trust anyone yet. What are your thoughts on what's been posted as of yet? On the inactive/lurkers lynch + Show Spoiler +
I believe inactive players/lurkers are generally anti-town/bad town play in any mafia game, so lynching them isn't a bad idea (Since I believe d1 lynch is good, refer below), if there aren't better candidates of course.
On the day 1 lynch/no lynch + Show Spoiler +
I agree on lynching day 1 based on my experience with other mafia games (outside TL) with similar setup. By reading other games on TL I also notice the current meta game is to lynch when there are more players, as it gives townies clues.
I am off to lunch, will be commenting on my thoughts later as I see some interesting posts/votes already.
His first post puts him on the bandwagon with his opinion on the inactives and lurkers, and is generally a contentless post with little to no controversy. Otherwise, nothing to bring the spotlight to him at all.
While this is not by any means evidence of scummy play, there comes to attention the next post he makes.
On June 13 2012 15:40 alan133 wrote:My thoughts on suki's case: + Show Spoiler +Any possibility is valuable, but if there is something absurdly wrong, I'll call it, even if that means a no lynch. I won't accept a NO LYNCH unless I believe we may have a serious mislynch coming. I started writing before I refresh and saw s0lstice's post. As he already pointed it out, there are no contradictions between the two statements. trackd00r merely states that NL is bad unless it is a "serious" mislynch in both highlighted sentence. If I am missing something, please correct me. Also, Miltonkram: + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 10:35 Miltonkram wrote:
Hey all, glad to see we've got a bit of activity already.
In NMM XV we actually had a decent discussion about no-lynches (involving me making a fool of myself) and how they can actually be beneficial in certain setups. That being said, we don't know for certain if we'll have any modkills so we should leave no-lynches off the table until we hit the unlikely scenario that a no-lynch is beneficial for the town.
Town, the best way to contribute is just to get posting. Let everyone know what your thoughts are. Did someone post something suspicious? Let us know about it. Do you think the town is making a bad move? Let us know about it. If a townie lurks he/she is letting down his/her entire team. So don't do it, K? I'm sooooooooper serious. Like sooooper, soooooooooooper serious.
Hey sciberbia, remember this
##Vote: sciberbia
...heh heh heh
Is it me or you are not actually + Show Spoiler +soooooooooooooooooper serious ? I personally think (well played) townies are not the ones that bluffs around, let alone voting someone without any reason at all? Generally, fooling around, to me, is anti-town/ bad town play. My current opinion + Show Spoiler +FMPOV, suki's case was most probably based on a misunderstanding, but (s)he could very well did it intentionally hoping for a bandwagon leading to a mislynch. Note that I am merely listing the possibilities, I do not FoS anyone yet, which can also mean that I do not trust anyone yet.
This is the post that really got me wondering. How by now can you have no suspicions? There has been quite a few suspicious decisions by several people, giving you more then enough time to form a case against someone, or at least apply some pressure.
His statement about trackd00r comes after s0lstice, leaving his opinion tied to a fairly influential player and just reiterating what s0lstice said with no additional evidence or opinionated comments. Again, seeming like he's contributing without actually bringing anything to the table.
He throws around some suspicion towards Miltonkram, however not enough to constitute a case or apply any pressure, just enough to make people go filter milton and consider what he might have done, which yet again, leaves him out of the spotlight.
The last statement he makes in this post is the most suspicious and the largest tell of his indecision and lack of real input. He restates his opinion that suki's case is a misunderstanding, again, nothing of value. He then continues to explain that he has no FoS and that he doesn't trust anyone, leaving his options open, and having no real contrary opinions.
His current play is anti-town at best, as he hasn't brought any of his thoughts to the table, and has only left ambiguous and bandwagoning answers to keep attention on those with controversial opinions.
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While this is not necessarily evidence of scummy play, there comes to attention the next post he makes.
Forgot to proofread as my thoughts came down.. >.<
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On June 13 2012 16:25 Miltonkram wrote:
@alan
Just making a bit of a joke. I was referencing our last game together, NMM XV, when I voted for sciberbia in one of my very first posts on D1. You're right though, spending too much time joking around does not promote a pro-town environment. From here on out I'm 100% serious and in scumhunting mode.
##unVote: sciberbia
you are suppose to be playing seriously if not then that would create the cloud of assumption that you are indeed scum random votes are related to scummy tactics so I already have my suspicions of you. also my suspicions of roflewaffles are slight but i have no further evidence that is incriminating him
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On June 13 2012 22:47 Mouldy Jeb wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 16:25 Miltonkram wrote:
@alan
Just making a bit of a joke. I was referencing our last game together, NMM XV, when I voted for sciberbia in one of my very first posts on D1. You're right though, spending too much time joking around does not promote a pro-town environment. From here on out I'm 100% serious and in scumhunting mode.
##unVote: sciberbia you are suppose to be playing seriously if not then that would create the cloud of assumption that you are indeed scum random votes are related to scummy tactics so I already have my suspicions of you. also my suspicions of roflewaffles are slight but i have no further evidence that is incriminating him
Hey mouldyjeb, glad to see you posting! Do you have any other evidence or reasons beyond miltons lighthearted attitude at the beginning? State them if you do, as well as any suspicions against me! Don't keep them to yourself!
Also, what are your opinions on the cases so far, like mine against alan133 and suki's against trackd00r?
I ask these because that was a fairly lackluster post when it comes to your first of the game and id like you to bring some fresh opinions to the table.
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@rolfwaffles55
+ Show Spoiler +His first post puts him on the bandwagon with his opinion on the inactives and lurkers, and is generally a contentless post with little to no controversy. Otherwise, nothing to bring the spotlight to him at all.
Well, you were the one asking for my opinion on what has already posted. This is the post that really got me wondering. How by now can you have no suspicions? There has been quite a few suspicious decisions by several people, giving you more then enough time to form a case against someone, or at least apply some pressure. You can decide if I am honest about writing the post before s0lstice, which was also stated in my post. (I refreshed to see if there are new post before I "submit") I also shortened it to avoid long repeated post. I wrote the possible motivations behind suki's case. I don't see how it is "anti-town" or "just fillers", as these were exactly my thoughts on the case. FMPOV, anyone can be scum, and having no FoS does not mean I do not suspect anyone. I merely state that I have no strong scum read as of currently, and in my context, strong means pretty much confirmed. IMO those who are decisive in throwing votes based on weak or insubstantial claims were somewhat suspicious. I think it is normal for townies to hold doubts and and being decisive as they were less informed. If anything, I just tried to keep an open mind. Also, is it me or you were trying to divert the attention AWAY from suki? I don't see how keeping the attention on suki is a bad thing, as you suggested. His current play is anti-town at best, as he hasn't brought any of his thoughts to the table, and has only left ambiguous and bandwagoning answers to keep attention on those with controversial opinions. Well if you're complaining about not bringing up any of my thoughts, there you have it. I were trying to avoid throwing out suspicions with little to no proof, but if by not doing so is anti-townAs a matter of fact, roflwaffles55 asked for my opinion replying to my opening post, and criticise it being a bandwagon, while forgetting he did the same. + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 11:03 roflwaffles55 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 10:46 s0Lstice wrote:On June 13 2012 09:56 roflwaffles55 wrote:
Hey everyone!
Glad I got towned up for my first game, I'm hoping to be able to contribute to the analysis and casebuilding, as well as make some good reads of my own!
I'll read up on the previous game that the 6 of you were a part of to see if I can't make some good calls when it comes time to vote. Would you care to comment on the topics sciberbia brought up? Sure! When it comes to lynching lurkers I would agree in that it shouldn't be the focus, and would prefer to lynch someone acting scummy day 1. As to NL, I am firmly against it and if we can't get a clear majority on scummy-acting folks then we should at least lynch a lurker, especially on D1 and 2.
Well, he also voted me on these insubstantial reasons. Of course, he also missed one or two post made by Miltonkram and austinmcc, which posted something more or less what I said. Also, if I am the only one not bringing up cases, there should be at least 11 other cases already. Of course, those were ignored and he proceed to vote me.
@trackd00r
+ Show Spoiler +
Looks like you intented to write something else about me, but a single post of S0lstice made your opinion change quite quickly, very quickly IMO.
This is a weird speculation, as there is no indication nor proof I was not doing otherwise. I guess there is no way to say "I swear I was backing you up even before I read anything else!!111", but oh well. I did edit my post after I saw ss0lstice's post, mostly shortening what was already mentioned by ss0lstice, as most of my points were agreeing with him.
My policy is to stay as neutral as possible, accessing all the possibilities while passively waiting/reading what other people has posted. I do believe this is not a bad-town play, as I am trying to avoid town fighting town scenario while scums lurks and look at the drama while eating pop-corns.
That said, Crossfire99 is still missing while HeavOnEarth only has his opening post.
I would like to see other people's thought on suki and rolfwaffles55's cases.
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morning everyone
First off, id like to say im suspicious of everyone who tries to stay under the radar. I feel newer mafia players have a tendency to try and stay quiet.
That said O.Golden_ne looks the most suspicious to me-
On June 13 2012 09:43 O.Golden_ne wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 09:25 austinmcc wrote:
-snip
I'm not looking to push lurkers early and stay on them for an entire day cycle, killing discussion, but they need to be considered and I'd rather be looking at them on earlier days than when we're close to/at LYLO/MYLO. agreed. NL is bad. Killing lurking is necessary. Lynching scum is great. Lets get the ball rolling and squeeze out the lurkers early so we can narrow things down later on. Looking forward to scumhunting, i'm happy with the deadline on this as its 10am for me in Aust, which means i'll be able to meet the deadlines for lynching in the mornings a little easier. I'll try my hardest this game to meet these deadlines and to contribute useful information rather than filler. Essentially i'm all for an agressive early game. I want to be able to establish some basic reads by the end of Day one, and if theres no-one who's appropriately scummy then we lynch a lurker. Golden
Is there anything even remotely helpful in this post? Everyone knows NL is bad. he seems to be posting for the sake of it
also, i checked his last game, (he was townie)
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=337671&user=92568
u can tell his tone is completely different, and he is generally more helpful.
also id like to point out crossfire is completely inactive, whereas in past games he was a pretty talkative little townie.
thoughts?
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As has been pointed out, the contradiction isn't as severe as I initially thought it was.
##unvote trackd00r
I thought at the very least I could rouse a response from trackd00r, however my case was too weak and I feel that no useful information can be gleamed from people simply agreeing on its flimsiness.
Regarding miltonkram's vote of sciberbia, I personally think it's a joke referencing our previous game XV where he votes sciberbia within the first few posts of the game. I thought it was pretty funny myself.
I feel that rofl's case on alan is not very convincing. First off, alan isn't bandwagoning on the lurker/inactive issue, at that point is split about 50/50 with half of the previous posters saying they want to focus on scumhunting and half leaning more towards a lurker lynch. Second, the game is so new that I disagree with the statement that his play is anti-town. He hasn't made any strong statements because there are few strong statements to make. My case on trackd00r was/is a flop, and up until your vote on alan no one has really pointed out anything suspicious about any other player (well, aside from those questioning my motivation to vote for trackd00r). Contributions are low but that's to be expected in the first hours of the game. I feel that there's not enough information out there yet to make an opinion on alan.
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nope roffle that was a gut feeling about you that why I stated I have no evidence
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@HeavenonEarth
I felt golden's first post seemed a bit off as well compared to last game, but I was waiting for a few more posts from him before saying anything.
@alan
Don't stay neutral. Neutral doesn't help town. Making strong opinions and reads helps town.
Off to work, I'll be back later.
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my personal opinion so far, would be to keep tabs on miltontkram this is due to the fact that he randomly voted ( yes yes, its all fun and games until a misslynch)
I also do agree with suki on the "sketchy" behaviour of rofl but contradicting myself I feel you have raised some good points of scummy behaviour in your long post
and crossfire seems to be lurking.
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On June 13 2012 23:48 alan133 wrote:@rolfwaffles55 + Show Spoiler +His first post puts him on the bandwagon with his opinion on the inactives and lurkers, and is generally a contentless post with little to no controversy. Otherwise, nothing to bring the spotlight to him at all.
Well, you were the one asking for my opinion on what has already posted. This is the post that really got me wondering. How by now can you have no suspicions? There has been quite a few suspicious decisions by several people, giving you more then enough time to form a case against someone, or at least apply some pressure. You can decide if I am honest about writing the post before s0lstice, which was also stated in my post. (I refreshed to see if there are new post before I "submit") I also shortened it to avoid long repeated post. I wrote the possible motivations behind suki's case. I don't see how it is "anti-town" or "just fillers", as these were exactly my thoughts on the case. FMPOV, anyone can be scum, and having no FoS does not mean I do not suspect anyone. I merely state that I have no strong scum read as of currently, and in my context, strong means pretty much confirmed. IMO those who are decisive in throwing votes based on weak or insubstantial claims were somewhat suspicious. I think it is normal for townies to hold doubts and and being decisive as they were less informed. If anything, I just tried to keep an open mind. Also, is it me or you were trying to divert the attention AWAY from suki? I don't see how keeping the attention on suki is a bad thing, as you suggested. His current play is anti-town at best, as he hasn't brought any of his thoughts to the table, and has only left ambiguous and bandwagoning answers to keep attention on those with controversial opinions. Well if you're complaining about not bringing up any of my thoughts, there you have it. I were trying to avoid throwing out suspicions with little to no proof, but if by not doing so is anti-townAs a matter of fact, roflwaffles55 asked for my opinion replying to my opening post, and criticise it being a bandwagon, while forgetting he did the same. + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 11:03 roflwaffles55 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 10:46 s0Lstice wrote:On June 13 2012 09:56 roflwaffles55 wrote:
Hey everyone!
Glad I got towned up for my first game, I'm hoping to be able to contribute to the analysis and casebuilding, as well as make some good reads of my own!
I'll read up on the previous game that the 6 of you were a part of to see if I can't make some good calls when it comes time to vote. Would you care to comment on the topics sciberbia brought up? Sure! When it comes to lynching lurkers I would agree in that it shouldn't be the focus, and would prefer to lynch someone acting scummy day 1. As to NL, I am firmly against it and if we can't get a clear majority on scummy-acting folks then we should at least lynch a lurker, especially on D1 and 2.
Well, he also voted me on these insubstantial reasons. Of course, he also missed one or two post made by Miltonkram and austinmcc, which posted something more or less what I said. Also, if I am the only one not bringing up cases, there should be at least 11 other cases already. Of course, those were ignored and he proceed to vote me.@trackd00r + Show Spoiler +
Looks like you intented to write something else about me, but a single post of S0lstice made your opinion change quite quickly, very quickly IMO.
This is a weird speculation, as there is no indication nor proof I was not doing otherwise. I guess there is no way to say "I swear I was backing you up even before I read anything else!!111", but oh well. I did edit my post after I saw ss0lstice's post, mostly shortening what was already mentioned by ss0lstice, as most of my points were agreeing with him. My policy is to stay as neutral as possible, accessing all the possibilities while passively waiting/reading what other people has posted. I do believe this is not a bad-town play, as I am trying to avoid town fighting town scenario while scums lurks and look at the drama while eating pop-corns. That said, Crossfire99 is still missing while HeavOnEarth only has his opening post. I would like to see other people's thought on suki and rolfwaffles55's cases.
While I am completely aware that my case has several holes in it, nobody can expect an ironclad case halfway through D1. The points you bring up in the first half of your response to me continue to be ambiguous, I'm glad you started to get your legitimate opinions out there, being quiet and neutral will get us nowhere. Both of our initial posts tended to agree with the majority, but as I said, that wasn't the focus of my argument, it was the post on the suki argument that got my suspicions roused.
Yes, I did vote you, but you forget that votes are easily removable, and the fact that you had to write a sensationalist paragraph in red text rather then just poke through the obvious logical holes in my cases convince me that you have something to lose, whether it be scum, blue, or just poor play.
As suki said, don't stay neutral, start posting your opinion on people, even if it brings attention to you.
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Also, I'm not posting on all of the suspicious people out there because talking about every semi-suspicious action that every person makes will get us nowhere and will just lead to general distrust and confusion.
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Just woke up. I'll start with that only as a last resort will I be for lynching a lurker Day 1. If we can get some good scum hunting done Day 1 we will have a more productive lynch than just a random lurker. Now onto what has been happening.
On the whole suki and trapdoor issue:
+ Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 12:44 suki wrote:Is it just me or is trackd00r coming off as scummy already? Show nested quote +
If I understood correctly, it doesn't mean that I would stop any lynch that I didn't mention on my analysis. Just because I have a candidate for lynch, it doesn't imply that I discard any other possibility.
It's something related to common sense. If any other cases are convincing enough, I'll throw my vote there in the case I can't get a majority. In the other hand, if we end up like RNG lynching (which is a bad idea), any other poster that could be doing silly mistakes, or even a player practically saying ''hey guys, I'm mafia, lynch me'' that's when it goes against my mindset. Any possibility is valuable, but if there is something absurdly wrong, I'll call it, even if that means a no lynch.
This post screams to me that he's trying to be super cautious with his words, so that he'll have a safety net if/when he ever changes a vote or bandwagons on someone else. He throws out some 'obvious' examples of reasons of what wouldn't agree with him, and even mentions that he would follow through on a read, even if it that means a no lynch.BUT WAIT! Just ONE post previous to that he says this: Show nested quote +I won't accept a NO LYNCH unless I believe we may have a serious mislynch coming. ... Dude. You try to take a firm stance against something, and then you do the most scummy wishy-washy-ness thing ever the very next post. You're clearly informed about mafia as you brought up the idea of a day 1 RNG lynch, and being against a no lynch is not a difficult or complicated policy to hold. I feel that such a simple logical slip only happens if you're trying to play it safe and keep your options open. ##vote trackd00r
I think suki was just being aggressive. I admit that I found trapdoor's response post to be weird, but then I realized that English is probably not his native language, so I reread it a few times. I don't see a contradiction in there, he is just explaining that he would try to stop a lynch that he really believed was on a townie. I'll give suki the benefit of the doubt on this case and say she is an over eager townie for now.
On roflwaffle and alan:
+ Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 22:28 roflwaffles55 wrote:I woke up this morning to the arguments made towards trackd00r, and while the arguments made against him weren't particularly convincing, his defense was a little bit lackluster as well. However, I would like to bring your attention to someone else that is acting quite scummy as it stands. Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 13:05 alan133 wrote:On June 13 2012 11:12 roflwaffles55 wrote:On June 13 2012 11:03 alan133 wrote:
Good morning everyone. Looks like the first thing I am going to do in the office is to play mafia on TL. I don't recognize anyone here since this is my first game, well except for s0Lsitce since he is in the game I read. That's my brief introduction, and habitually in the beginning of any game, GLHF.
I am new and am unsure how to proceed with the game, but my current strategy is to wait for more post to come. Currently I have no FoS. That also mean I do not trust anyone yet. What are your thoughts on what's been posted as of yet? On the inactive/lurkers lynch + Show Spoiler +
I believe inactive players/lurkers are generally anti-town/bad town play in any mafia game, so lynching them isn't a bad idea (Since I believe d1 lynch is good, refer below), if there aren't better candidates of course.
On the day 1 lynch/no lynch + Show Spoiler +
I agree on lynching day 1 based on my experience with other mafia games (outside TL) with similar setup. By reading other games on TL I also notice the current meta game is to lynch when there are more players, as it gives townies clues.
I am off to lunch, will be commenting on my thoughts later as I see some interesting posts/votes already. His first post puts him on the bandwagon with his opinion on the inactives and lurkers, and is generally a contentless post with little to no controversy. Otherwise, nothing to bring the spotlight to him at all. While this is not by any means evidence of scummy play, there comes to attention the next post he makes. Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 15:40 alan133 wrote:My thoughts on suki's case: + Show Spoiler +Any possibility is valuable, but if there is something absurdly wrong, I'll call it, even if that means a no lynch. I won't accept a NO LYNCH unless I believe we may have a serious mislynch coming. I started writing before I refresh and saw s0lstice's post. As he already pointed it out, there are no contradictions between the two statements. trackd00r merely states that NL is bad unless it is a "serious" mislynch in both highlighted sentence. If I am missing something, please correct me. Also, Miltonkram: + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 10:35 Miltonkram wrote:
Hey all, glad to see we've got a bit of activity already.
In NMM XV we actually had a decent discussion about no-lynches (involving me making a fool of myself) and how they can actually be beneficial in certain setups. That being said, we don't know for certain if we'll have any modkills so we should leave no-lynches off the table until we hit the unlikely scenario that a no-lynch is beneficial for the town.
Town, the best way to contribute is just to get posting. Let everyone know what your thoughts are. Did someone post something suspicious? Let us know about it. Do you think the town is making a bad move? Let us know about it. If a townie lurks he/she is letting down his/her entire team. So don't do it, K? I'm sooooooooper serious. Like sooooper, soooooooooooper serious.
Hey sciberbia, remember this
##Vote: sciberbia
...heh heh heh
Is it me or you are not actually + Show Spoiler +soooooooooooooooooper serious ? I personally think (well played) townies are not the ones that bluffs around, let alone voting someone without any reason at all? Generally, fooling around, to me, is anti-town/ bad town play. My current opinion + Show Spoiler +FMPOV, suki's case was most probably based on a misunderstanding, but (s)he could very well did it intentionally hoping for a bandwagon leading to a mislynch. Note that I am merely listing the possibilities, I do not FoS anyone yet, which can also mean that I do not trust anyone yet. This is the post that really got me wondering. How by now can you have no suspicions? There has been quite a few suspicious decisions by several people, giving you more then enough time to form a case against someone, or at least apply some pressure. His statement about trackd00r comes after s0lstice, leaving his opinion tied to a fairly influential player and just reiterating what s0lstice said with no additional evidence or opinionated comments. Again, seeming like he's contributing without actually bringing anything to the table. He throws around some suspicion towards Miltonkram, however not enough to constitute a case or apply any pressure, just enough to make people go filter milton and consider what he might have done, which yet again, leaves him out of the spotlight. The last statement he makes in this post is the most suspicious and the largest tell of his indecision and lack of real input. He restates his opinion that suki's case is a misunderstanding, again, nothing of value. He then continues to explain that he has no FoS and that he doesn't trust anyone, leaving his options open, and having no real contrary opinions. His current play is anti-town at best, as he hasn't brought any of his thoughts to the table, and has only left ambiguous and bandwagoning answers to keep attention on those with controversial opinions.
I think roflwaffle is jumping a little too hard on alan here. It is like 1/3 of the way through Day 1. We are not going to have a lot to work with and consequently we aren't going to really know what to think of people until we get more information. Therefore, I feel alan is playing smartly by not rushing to find every little thing that might possibly be suspicious and throw a vote on someone because of it.
On Milton: He was just joking around. If he doesn't stop then I'll start getting suspicious of him.
As for my current thoughts:
The bolded part of this post by austin makes me suspicious of him.
+ Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 22:23 austinmcc wrote:
I don't read those posts as contradictory, believe the second one clarifies the first and explains that, while he'd consider a NL, the standard is higher than "Town is lynching someone that isn't one of my top couple reads."
That said, even if the two statements are entirely contradictory, I don't really see anything scummy in that. More inclined to see contradictions concerning votes and reads as scummy, where someone has stated one thing but then has to take a party line, rather than super early statements concerning a no lynch. There's no agenda to push on that issue.
Two completely contradictory statements without reasoning for the change is very suspicious. This is a good way to catch scum. They know the alignment of every person, so they have to make cases that they know are wrong (excluding bussing). This can lead to contradictory posts to make them better fit in with the current town mindset.
Austin, why don't you think that contradictory statements are suspicious?
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+ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 01:56 Crossfire99 wrote:Just woke up. I'll start with that only as a last resort will I be for lynching a lurker Day 1. If we can get some good scum hunting done Day 1 we will have a more productive lynch than just a random lurker. Now onto what has been happening. On the whole suki and trapdoor issue: + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 12:44 suki wrote:Is it just me or is trackd00r coming off as scummy already? Show nested quote +
If I understood correctly, it doesn't mean that I would stop any lynch that I didn't mention on my analysis. Just because I have a candidate for lynch, it doesn't imply that I discard any other possibility.
It's something related to common sense. If any other cases are convincing enough, I'll throw my vote there in the case I can't get a majority. In the other hand, if we end up like RNG lynching (which is a bad idea), any other poster that could be doing silly mistakes, or even a player practically saying ''hey guys, I'm mafia, lynch me'' that's when it goes against my mindset. Any possibility is valuable, but if there is something absurdly wrong, I'll call it, even if that means a no lynch.
This post screams to me that he's trying to be super cautious with his words, so that he'll have a safety net if/when he ever changes a vote or bandwagons on someone else. He throws out some 'obvious' examples of reasons of what wouldn't agree with him, and even mentions that he would follow through on a read, even if it that means a no lynch.BUT WAIT! Just ONE post previous to that he says this: Show nested quote +I won't accept a NO LYNCH unless I believe we may have a serious mislynch coming. ... Dude. You try to take a firm stance against something, and then you do the most scummy wishy-washy-ness thing ever the very next post. You're clearly informed about mafia as you brought up the idea of a day 1 RNG lynch, and being against a no lynch is not a difficult or complicated policy to hold. I feel that such a simple logical slip only happens if you're trying to play it safe and keep your options open. ##vote trackd00r I think suki was just being aggressive. I admit that I found trapdoor's response post to be weird, but then I realized that English is probably not his native language, so I reread it a few times. I don't see a contradiction in there, he is just explaining that he would try to stop a lynch that he really believed was on a townie. I'll give suki the benefit of the doubt on this case and say she is an over eager townie for now. On roflwaffle and alan: + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 22:28 roflwaffles55 wrote:I woke up this morning to the arguments made towards trackd00r, and while the arguments made against him weren't particularly convincing, his defense was a little bit lackluster as well. However, I would like to bring your attention to someone else that is acting quite scummy as it stands. Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 13:05 alan133 wrote:On June 13 2012 11:12 roflwaffles55 wrote:On June 13 2012 11:03 alan133 wrote:
Good morning everyone. Looks like the first thing I am going to do in the office is to play mafia on TL. I don't recognize anyone here since this is my first game, well except for s0Lsitce since he is in the game I read. That's my brief introduction, and habitually in the beginning of any game, GLHF.
I am new and am unsure how to proceed with the game, but my current strategy is to wait for more post to come. Currently I have no FoS. That also mean I do not trust anyone yet. What are your thoughts on what's been posted as of yet? On the inactive/lurkers lynch + Show Spoiler +
I believe inactive players/lurkers are generally anti-town/bad town play in any mafia game, so lynching them isn't a bad idea (Since I believe d1 lynch is good, refer below), if there aren't better candidates of course.
On the day 1 lynch/no lynch + Show Spoiler +
I agree on lynching day 1 based on my experience with other mafia games (outside TL) with similar setup. By reading other games on TL I also notice the current meta game is to lynch when there are more players, as it gives townies clues.
I am off to lunch, will be commenting on my thoughts later as I see some interesting posts/votes already. His first post puts him on the bandwagon with his opinion on the inactives and lurkers, and is generally a contentless post with little to no controversy. Otherwise, nothing to bring the spotlight to him at all. While this is not by any means evidence of scummy play, there comes to attention the next post he makes. Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 15:40 alan133 wrote:My thoughts on suki's case: + Show Spoiler +Any possibility is valuable, but if there is something absurdly wrong, I'll call it, even if that means a no lynch. I won't accept a NO LYNCH unless I believe we may have a serious mislynch coming. I started writing before I refresh and saw s0lstice's post. As he already pointed it out, there are no contradictions between the two statements. trackd00r merely states that NL is bad unless it is a "serious" mislynch in both highlighted sentence. If I am missing something, please correct me. Also, Miltonkram: + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 10:35 Miltonkram wrote:
Hey all, glad to see we've got a bit of activity already.
In NMM XV we actually had a decent discussion about no-lynches (involving me making a fool of myself) and how they can actually be beneficial in certain setups. That being said, we don't know for certain if we'll have any modkills so we should leave no-lynches off the table until we hit the unlikely scenario that a no-lynch is beneficial for the town.
Town, the best way to contribute is just to get posting. Let everyone know what your thoughts are. Did someone post something suspicious? Let us know about it. Do you think the town is making a bad move? Let us know about it. If a townie lurks he/she is letting down his/her entire team. So don't do it, K? I'm sooooooooper serious. Like sooooper, soooooooooooper serious.
Hey sciberbia, remember this
##Vote: sciberbia
...heh heh heh
Is it me or you are not actually + Show Spoiler +soooooooooooooooooper serious ? I personally think (well played) townies are not the ones that bluffs around, let alone voting someone without any reason at all? Generally, fooling around, to me, is anti-town/ bad town play. My current opinion + Show Spoiler +FMPOV, suki's case was most probably based on a misunderstanding, but (s)he could very well did it intentionally hoping for a bandwagon leading to a mislynch. Note that I am merely listing the possibilities, I do not FoS anyone yet, which can also mean that I do not trust anyone yet. This is the post that really got me wondering. How by now can you have no suspicions? There has been quite a few suspicious decisions by several people, giving you more then enough time to form a case against someone, or at least apply some pressure. His statement about trackd00r comes after s0lstice, leaving his opinion tied to a fairly influential player and just reiterating what s0lstice said with no additional evidence or opinionated comments. Again, seeming like he's contributing without actually bringing anything to the table. He throws around some suspicion towards Miltonkram, however not enough to constitute a case or apply any pressure, just enough to make people go filter milton and consider what he might have done, which yet again, leaves him out of the spotlight. The last statement he makes in this post is the most suspicious and the largest tell of his indecision and lack of real input. He restates his opinion that suki's case is a misunderstanding, again, nothing of value. He then continues to explain that he has no FoS and that he doesn't trust anyone, leaving his options open, and having no real contrary opinions. His current play is anti-town at best, as he hasn't brought any of his thoughts to the table, and has only left ambiguous and bandwagoning answers to keep attention on those with controversial opinions. I think roflwaffle is jumping a little too hard on alan here. It is like 1/3 of the way through Day 1. We are not going to have a lot to work with and consequently we aren't going to really know what to think of people until we get more information. Therefore, I feel alan is playing smartly by not rushing to find every little thing that might possibly be suspicious and throw a vote on someone because of it. On Milton: He was just joking around. If he doesn't stop then I'll start getting suspicious of him. As for my current thoughts: The bolded part of this post by austin makes me suspicious of him. + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 22:23 austinmcc wrote:
I don't read those posts as contradictory, believe the second one clarifies the first and explains that, while he'd consider a NL, the standard is higher than "Town is lynching someone that isn't one of my top couple reads."
That said, even if the two statements are entirely contradictory, I don't really see anything scummy in that. More inclined to see contradictions concerning votes and reads as scummy, where someone has stated one thing but then has to take a party line, rather than super early statements concerning a no lynch. There's no agenda to push on that issue. Two completely contradictory statements without reasoning for the change is very suspicious. This is a good way to catch scum. They know the alignment of every person, so they have to make cases that they know are wrong (excluding bussing). This can lead to contradictory posts to make them better fit in with the current town mindset. Austin, why don't you think that contradictory statements are suspicious?
We need more information, and the only way to get that information is by pressuring people, scum starts with an information advantage and the faster we work to even that out, the better position we'll be in.
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On June 14 2012 01:35 roflwaffles55 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 23:48 alan133 wrote:@rolfwaffles55 + Show Spoiler +His first post puts him on the bandwagon with his opinion on the inactives and lurkers, and is generally a contentless post with little to no controversy. Otherwise, nothing to bring the spotlight to him at all.
Well, you were the one asking for my opinion on what has already posted. This is the post that really got me wondering. How by now can you have no suspicions? There has been quite a few suspicious decisions by several people, giving you more then enough time to form a case against someone, or at least apply some pressure. You can decide if I am honest about writing the post before s0lstice, which was also stated in my post. (I refreshed to see if there are new post before I "submit") I also shortened it to avoid long repeated post. I wrote the possible motivations behind suki's case. I don't see how it is "anti-town" or "just fillers", as these were exactly my thoughts on the case. FMPOV, anyone can be scum, and having no FoS does not mean I do not suspect anyone. I merely state that I have no strong scum read as of currently, and in my context, strong means pretty much confirmed. IMO those who are decisive in throwing votes based on weak or insubstantial claims were somewhat suspicious. I think it is normal for townies to hold doubts and and being decisive as they were less informed. If anything, I just tried to keep an open mind. Also, is it me or you were trying to divert the attention AWAY from suki? I don't see how keeping the attention on suki is a bad thing, as you suggested. His current play is anti-town at best, as he hasn't brought any of his thoughts to the table, and has only left ambiguous and bandwagoning answers to keep attention on those with controversial opinions. Well if you're complaining about not bringing up any of my thoughts, there you have it. I were trying to avoid throwing out suspicions with little to no proof, but if by not doing so is anti-townAs a matter of fact, roflwaffles55 asked for my opinion replying to my opening post, and criticise it being a bandwagon, while forgetting he did the same. + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 11:03 roflwaffles55 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 10:46 s0Lstice wrote:On June 13 2012 09:56 roflwaffles55 wrote:
Hey everyone!
Glad I got towned up for my first game, I'm hoping to be able to contribute to the analysis and casebuilding, as well as make some good reads of my own!
I'll read up on the previous game that the 6 of you were a part of to see if I can't make some good calls when it comes time to vote. Would you care to comment on the topics sciberbia brought up? Sure! When it comes to lynching lurkers I would agree in that it shouldn't be the focus, and would prefer to lynch someone acting scummy day 1. As to NL, I am firmly against it and if we can't get a clear majority on scummy-acting folks then we should at least lynch a lurker, especially on D1 and 2.
Well, he also voted me on these insubstantial reasons. Of course, he also missed one or two post made by Miltonkram and austinmcc, which posted something more or less what I said. Also, if I am the only one not bringing up cases, there should be at least 11 other cases already. Of course, those were ignored and he proceed to vote me.@trackd00r + Show Spoiler +
Looks like you intented to write something else about me, but a single post of S0lstice made your opinion change quite quickly, very quickly IMO.
This is a weird speculation, as there is no indication nor proof I was not doing otherwise. I guess there is no way to say "I swear I was backing you up even before I read anything else!!111", but oh well. I did edit my post after I saw ss0lstice's post, mostly shortening what was already mentioned by ss0lstice, as most of my points were agreeing with him. My policy is to stay as neutral as possible, accessing all the possibilities while passively waiting/reading what other people has posted. I do believe this is not a bad-town play, as I am trying to avoid town fighting town scenario while scums lurks and look at the drama while eating pop-corns. That said, Crossfire99 is still missing while HeavOnEarth only has his opening post. I would like to see other people's thought on suki and rolfwaffles55's cases. While I am completely aware that my case has several holes in it, nobody can expect an ironclad case halfway through D1. The points you bring up in the first half of your response to me continue to be ambiguous, I'm glad you started to get your legitimate opinions out there, being quiet and neutral will get us nowhere. Both of our initial posts tended to agree with the majority, but as I said, that wasn't the focus of my argument, it was the post on the suki argument that got my suspicions roused. Yes, I did vote you, but you forget that votes are easily removable, and the fact that you had to write a sensationalist paragraph in red text rather then just poke through the obvious logical holes in my cases convince me that you have something to lose, whether it be scum, blue, or just poor play. As suki said, don't stay neutral, start posting your opinion on people, even if it brings attention to you.
Be careful roflwaffle, votes are only easily removable if you are around to remove them. You never know what might happen. Also, votes early on in the day cycle that don't really mean much followed by complete disappearance during a controversial lynch can be scum tactic to avoid making mistakes in a heated debate that occurs last minute.
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On June 14 2012 02:00 roflwaffles55 wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 01:56 Crossfire99 wrote:Just woke up. I'll start with that only as a last resort will I be for lynching a lurker Day 1. If we can get some good scum hunting done Day 1 we will have a more productive lynch than just a random lurker. Now onto what has been happening. On the whole suki and trapdoor issue: + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 12:44 suki wrote:Is it just me or is trackd00r coming off as scummy already? Show nested quote +
If I understood correctly, it doesn't mean that I would stop any lynch that I didn't mention on my analysis. Just because I have a candidate for lynch, it doesn't imply that I discard any other possibility.
It's something related to common sense. If any other cases are convincing enough, I'll throw my vote there in the case I can't get a majority. In the other hand, if we end up like RNG lynching (which is a bad idea), any other poster that could be doing silly mistakes, or even a player practically saying ''hey guys, I'm mafia, lynch me'' that's when it goes against my mindset. Any possibility is valuable, but if there is something absurdly wrong, I'll call it, even if that means a no lynch.
This post screams to me that he's trying to be super cautious with his words, so that he'll have a safety net if/when he ever changes a vote or bandwagons on someone else. He throws out some 'obvious' examples of reasons of what wouldn't agree with him, and even mentions that he would follow through on a read, even if it that means a no lynch.BUT WAIT! Just ONE post previous to that he says this: Show nested quote +I won't accept a NO LYNCH unless I believe we may have a serious mislynch coming. ... Dude. You try to take a firm stance against something, and then you do the most scummy wishy-washy-ness thing ever the very next post. You're clearly informed about mafia as you brought up the idea of a day 1 RNG lynch, and being against a no lynch is not a difficult or complicated policy to hold. I feel that such a simple logical slip only happens if you're trying to play it safe and keep your options open. ##vote trackd00r I think suki was just being aggressive. I admit that I found trapdoor's response post to be weird, but then I realized that English is probably not his native language, so I reread it a few times. I don't see a contradiction in there, he is just explaining that he would try to stop a lynch that he really believed was on a townie. I'll give suki the benefit of the doubt on this case and say she is an over eager townie for now. On roflwaffle and alan: + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 22:28 roflwaffles55 wrote:I woke up this morning to the arguments made towards trackd00r, and while the arguments made against him weren't particularly convincing, his defense was a little bit lackluster as well. However, I would like to bring your attention to someone else that is acting quite scummy as it stands. Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 13:05 alan133 wrote:On June 13 2012 11:12 roflwaffles55 wrote:On June 13 2012 11:03 alan133 wrote:
Good morning everyone. Looks like the first thing I am going to do in the office is to play mafia on TL. I don't recognize anyone here since this is my first game, well except for s0Lsitce since he is in the game I read. That's my brief introduction, and habitually in the beginning of any game, GLHF.
I am new and am unsure how to proceed with the game, but my current strategy is to wait for more post to come. Currently I have no FoS. That also mean I do not trust anyone yet. What are your thoughts on what's been posted as of yet? On the inactive/lurkers lynch + Show Spoiler +
I believe inactive players/lurkers are generally anti-town/bad town play in any mafia game, so lynching them isn't a bad idea (Since I believe d1 lynch is good, refer below), if there aren't better candidates of course.
On the day 1 lynch/no lynch + Show Spoiler +
I agree on lynching day 1 based on my experience with other mafia games (outside TL) with similar setup. By reading other games on TL I also notice the current meta game is to lynch when there are more players, as it gives townies clues.
I am off to lunch, will be commenting on my thoughts later as I see some interesting posts/votes already. His first post puts him on the bandwagon with his opinion on the inactives and lurkers, and is generally a contentless post with little to no controversy. Otherwise, nothing to bring the spotlight to him at all. While this is not by any means evidence of scummy play, there comes to attention the next post he makes. Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 15:40 alan133 wrote:My thoughts on suki's case: + Show Spoiler +Any possibility is valuable, but if there is something absurdly wrong, I'll call it, even if that means a no lynch. I won't accept a NO LYNCH unless I believe we may have a serious mislynch coming. I started writing before I refresh and saw s0lstice's post. As he already pointed it out, there are no contradictions between the two statements. trackd00r merely states that NL is bad unless it is a "serious" mislynch in both highlighted sentence. If I am missing something, please correct me. Also, Miltonkram: + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 10:35 Miltonkram wrote:
Hey all, glad to see we've got a bit of activity already.
In NMM XV we actually had a decent discussion about no-lynches (involving me making a fool of myself) and how they can actually be beneficial in certain setups. That being said, we don't know for certain if we'll have any modkills so we should leave no-lynches off the table until we hit the unlikely scenario that a no-lynch is beneficial for the town.
Town, the best way to contribute is just to get posting. Let everyone know what your thoughts are. Did someone post something suspicious? Let us know about it. Do you think the town is making a bad move? Let us know about it. If a townie lurks he/she is letting down his/her entire team. So don't do it, K? I'm sooooooooper serious. Like sooooper, soooooooooooper serious.
Hey sciberbia, remember this
##Vote: sciberbia
...heh heh heh
Is it me or you are not actually + Show Spoiler +soooooooooooooooooper serious ? I personally think (well played) townies are not the ones that bluffs around, let alone voting someone without any reason at all? Generally, fooling around, to me, is anti-town/ bad town play. My current opinion + Show Spoiler +FMPOV, suki's case was most probably based on a misunderstanding, but (s)he could very well did it intentionally hoping for a bandwagon leading to a mislynch. Note that I am merely listing the possibilities, I do not FoS anyone yet, which can also mean that I do not trust anyone yet. This is the post that really got me wondering. How by now can you have no suspicions? There has been quite a few suspicious decisions by several people, giving you more then enough time to form a case against someone, or at least apply some pressure. His statement about trackd00r comes after s0lstice, leaving his opinion tied to a fairly influential player and just reiterating what s0lstice said with no additional evidence or opinionated comments. Again, seeming like he's contributing without actually bringing anything to the table. He throws around some suspicion towards Miltonkram, however not enough to constitute a case or apply any pressure, just enough to make people go filter milton and consider what he might have done, which yet again, leaves him out of the spotlight. The last statement he makes in this post is the most suspicious and the largest tell of his indecision and lack of real input. He restates his opinion that suki's case is a misunderstanding, again, nothing of value. He then continues to explain that he has no FoS and that he doesn't trust anyone, leaving his options open, and having no real contrary opinions. His current play is anti-town at best, as he hasn't brought any of his thoughts to the table, and has only left ambiguous and bandwagoning answers to keep attention on those with controversial opinions. I think roflwaffle is jumping a little too hard on alan here. It is like 1/3 of the way through Day 1. We are not going to have a lot to work with and consequently we aren't going to really know what to think of people until we get more information. Therefore, I feel alan is playing smartly by not rushing to find every little thing that might possibly be suspicious and throw a vote on someone because of it. On Milton: He was just joking around. If he doesn't stop then I'll start getting suspicious of him. As for my current thoughts: The bolded part of this post by austin makes me suspicious of him. + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 22:23 austinmcc wrote:
I don't read those posts as contradictory, believe the second one clarifies the first and explains that, while he'd consider a NL, the standard is higher than "Town is lynching someone that isn't one of my top couple reads."
That said, even if the two statements are entirely contradictory, I don't really see anything scummy in that. More inclined to see contradictions concerning votes and reads as scummy, where someone has stated one thing but then has to take a party line, rather than super early statements concerning a no lynch. There's no agenda to push on that issue. Two completely contradictory statements without reasoning for the change is very suspicious. This is a good way to catch scum. They know the alignment of every person, so they have to make cases that they know are wrong (excluding bussing). This can lead to contradictory posts to make them better fit in with the current town mindset. Austin, why don't you think that contradictory statements are suspicious? We need more information, and the only way to get that information is by pressuring people, scum starts with an information advantage and the faster we work to even that out, the better position we'll be in.
I agree that we need more information and we get that from pressuring people, but we need to do that smartly. If too many people are throwing around minor accusations all the time, it just confuses the town and allows mafia to sit back and laugh. That is what happened in NMM XIII when I was mafia. Ask austin, he was in it too.
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Activity level is decent, I am pleased. Here's my current thoughts.
Miltonkram
His vote was a joke. Maybe it was more clear to people in the game that the joke is from, but don't read too far into it.
trackd00r
Suki's post concerning trackd00r met my approval. It did nothing to prove his scummyness (as she later clarified), but it got the ball rolling. My read on trackd00r is still neutral.
suki
the sample size is extremely small, but her strawman case against trackd00r immediately goes against her scum meta. Day 1 doesn't truly begin until someone makes a 'meh' case against someone else with a few 'meh' points. Being that first person is a position of pseudo-leadership, and I consider it less likely that a scummer would be so bold. I don't put a ton of stock into this, but it is something to keep in mind.
Mouldy Jeb
You are my #1 suspicion at this point. You make a big deal out of Milton's vote. You profess a nebulous, baseless suspicion of roflwaffles55, then compliment him on his scumhunting. If you knew this was a contradiction why did you even type it?
On refresh, I see Crossfire99 has shown up. Hello and welcome. I'm gonna put you under a magnifying glass now ;D
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On June 14 2012 02:02 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 01:35 roflwaffles55 wrote:On June 13 2012 23:48 alan133 wrote:@rolfwaffles55 + Show Spoiler +His first post puts him on the bandwagon with his opinion on the inactives and lurkers, and is generally a contentless post with little to no controversy. Otherwise, nothing to bring the spotlight to him at all.
Well, you were the one asking for my opinion on what has already posted. This is the post that really got me wondering. How by now can you have no suspicions? There has been quite a few suspicious decisions by several people, giving you more then enough time to form a case against someone, or at least apply some pressure. You can decide if I am honest about writing the post before s0lstice, which was also stated in my post. (I refreshed to see if there are new post before I "submit") I also shortened it to avoid long repeated post. I wrote the possible motivations behind suki's case. I don't see how it is "anti-town" or "just fillers", as these were exactly my thoughts on the case. FMPOV, anyone can be scum, and having no FoS does not mean I do not suspect anyone. I merely state that I have no strong scum read as of currently, and in my context, strong means pretty much confirmed. IMO those who are decisive in throwing votes based on weak or insubstantial claims were somewhat suspicious. I think it is normal for townies to hold doubts and and being decisive as they were less informed. If anything, I just tried to keep an open mind. Also, is it me or you were trying to divert the attention AWAY from suki? I don't see how keeping the attention on suki is a bad thing, as you suggested. His current play is anti-town at best, as he hasn't brought any of his thoughts to the table, and has only left ambiguous and bandwagoning answers to keep attention on those with controversial opinions. Well if you're complaining about not bringing up any of my thoughts, there you have it. I were trying to avoid throwing out suspicions with little to no proof, but if by not doing so is anti-townAs a matter of fact, roflwaffles55 asked for my opinion replying to my opening post, and criticise it being a bandwagon, while forgetting he did the same. + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 11:03 roflwaffles55 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 10:46 s0Lstice wrote:On June 13 2012 09:56 roflwaffles55 wrote:
Hey everyone!
Glad I got towned up for my first game, I'm hoping to be able to contribute to the analysis and casebuilding, as well as make some good reads of my own!
I'll read up on the previous game that the 6 of you were a part of to see if I can't make some good calls when it comes time to vote. Would you care to comment on the topics sciberbia brought up? Sure! When it comes to lynching lurkers I would agree in that it shouldn't be the focus, and would prefer to lynch someone acting scummy day 1. As to NL, I am firmly against it and if we can't get a clear majority on scummy-acting folks then we should at least lynch a lurker, especially on D1 and 2.
Well, he also voted me on these insubstantial reasons. Of course, he also missed one or two post made by Miltonkram and austinmcc, which posted something more or less what I said. Also, if I am the only one not bringing up cases, there should be at least 11 other cases already. Of course, those were ignored and he proceed to vote me.@trackd00r + Show Spoiler +
Looks like you intented to write something else about me, but a single post of S0lstice made your opinion change quite quickly, very quickly IMO.
This is a weird speculation, as there is no indication nor proof I was not doing otherwise. I guess there is no way to say "I swear I was backing you up even before I read anything else!!111", but oh well. I did edit my post after I saw ss0lstice's post, mostly shortening what was already mentioned by ss0lstice, as most of my points were agreeing with him. My policy is to stay as neutral as possible, accessing all the possibilities while passively waiting/reading what other people has posted. I do believe this is not a bad-town play, as I am trying to avoid town fighting town scenario while scums lurks and look at the drama while eating pop-corns. That said, Crossfire99 is still missing while HeavOnEarth only has his opening post. I would like to see other people's thought on suki and rolfwaffles55's cases. While I am completely aware that my case has several holes in it, nobody can expect an ironclad case halfway through D1. The points you bring up in the first half of your response to me continue to be ambiguous, I'm glad you started to get your legitimate opinions out there, being quiet and neutral will get us nowhere. Both of our initial posts tended to agree with the majority, but as I said, that wasn't the focus of my argument, it was the post on the suki argument that got my suspicions roused. Yes, I did vote you, but you forget that votes are easily removable, and the fact that you had to write a sensationalist paragraph in red text rather then just poke through the obvious logical holes in my cases convince me that you have something to lose, whether it be scum, blue, or just poor play. As suki said, don't stay neutral, start posting your opinion on people, even if it brings attention to you. Be careful roflwaffle, votes are only easily removable if you are around to remove them. You never know what might happen. Also, votes early on in the day cycle that don't really mean much followed by complete disappearance during a controversial lynch can be scum tactic to avoid making mistakes in a heated debate that occurs last minute.
I agree that I may have been a bit too aggressive right off the bat, but I implore you to look at my arguments and his, and take more from it then just an overzealous attempt on my part.
##unvote alan133
There you go, I'm still suspicious, but I may have underestimated the significance of a vote.
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As for my suspicions, golden still hasn't replied, and there seems to be a lot of random fluff RIGHT AFTER my accusation, by both Mouldy Jeb AND crossfire( oh hey there nice of u to suddenly wake up )
this is a common mafia tactic, to throw the spotlight off someone being accused.
check out Mouldy Jeb's posts, and accusations
On June 14 2012 00:20 Mouldy Jeb wrote:
nope roffle that was a gut feeling about you that why I stated I have no evidence
Why would someone try to direct suspicions with NO reasoning?
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Crossfire99, what do you think of what I said about Mouldy Jeb?
Roflwaffles55, same question.
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Hey guys. I've been trying to keep up with the thread from work, but there are more posts than I have time to read and it's not really working out. Just posting to let you know that I'll not be doing major analysis and/or posting until 6-12 hours from now. Sorry about that. Keep up the discussion - it looks good.
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On June 14 2012 02:02 Crossfire99 wrote:
--snipped
Be careful roflwaffle, votes are only easily removable if you are around to remove them. You never know what might happen. Also, votes early on in the day cycle that don't really mean much followed by complete disappearance during a controversial lynch can be scum tactic to avoid making mistakes in a heated debate that occurs last minute.
What an odd thing to say. Your message boils down to: don't vote because you might not be around later, and when that happens you are going to look scummy. Discouraging voting for such an arbitrary reason looks kind of scummy. Also, this hall-monitor stuff is a comfortable way for scum to post and have it look like they are pro-town.
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On June 14 2012 01:56 Crossfire99 wrote:As for my current thoughts: The bolded part of this post by austin makes me suspicious of him. + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 22:23 austinmcc wrote:
I don't read those posts as contradictory, believe the second one clarifies the first and explains that, while he'd consider a NL, the standard is higher than "Town is lynching someone that isn't one of my top couple reads."
That said, even if the two statements are entirely contradictory, I don't really see anything scummy in that. More inclined to see contradictions concerning votes and reads as scummy, where someone has stated one thing but then has to take a party line, rather than super early statements concerning a no lynch. There's no agenda to push on that issue. Two completely contradictory statements without reasoning for the change is very suspicious. This is a good way to catch scum. They know the alignment of every person, so they have to make cases that they know are wrong (excluding bussing). This can lead to contradictory posts to make them better fit in with the current town mindset. Austin, why don't you think that contradictory statements are suspicious? They can be, depending on what they concern, and when they occur. See the italicized above, although I should have more explicitly qualified the bolded bit.
If someone had barged into the thread yesterday saying "I love no lynches" and then "I hate no lynches" in the very next post, that's not scummy to me. There's no debate here (nobody is proposing we NL), it's not important at this time (start of day, no NL proposal). There's no scummy reason to swap between those two statements on that particular topic at this particular time.
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On June 14 2012 02:45 s0Lstice wrote:
Crossfire99, what do you think of what I said about Mouldy Jeb?
Roflwaffles55, same question.
Yeah Mouldy is acting really weird. He needs to get active to explain himself. Everything he has said so far lacks good reasoning.
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First of all, sorry for my bad English. I'll try to check my grammar before posting.
Mouldy Jeb's play is confusing as hell.
Not only his posts have no real town content, but the way he writes them makes me feel I'm looking at a completely different game.
Anyways, I can't tell if this is scum play or just plain bad town play. Since he stated that in his last game he got lynched D1, the latter option is what I'm taking at the moment.
@Mouldy: What do you think of last miltonkram post? Do you keep your stance on him?
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@roflwaffles55
+ Show Spoiler +Yes, I did vote you, but you forget that votes are easily removable, and the fact that you had to write a sensationalist paragraph in red text rather then just poke through the obvious logical holes in my cases convince me that you have something to lose, whether it be scum, blue, or just poor play. The red text was meant to emphasize on how easily I could've built a case against you if I were to use the same speculations and baseless assumptions. I also noticed you were focusing a lot on me, from asking my opinion to my opening post, proceeding to accuse me of supposedly leaking "scum-tells", and then voting me. I thought of your possible motives, and it made sense for both town and scum plays. (see summary)
But enough of you, it is late over here so I think it is better for me to notify my leave as well as writing a summary.
+ Show Spoiler +I feel like there are still not enough post to build any case on. Maybe because of time difference everyone is sleeping while I am refreshing the page every 3 seconds. My standing on voting. + Show Spoiler + I know I might be talking votes too seriously as stated, but IMO townies should behave seriously and cast every votes (even if it is retractable) as if they are not allowed to retract, in other words, use ##FoS to declare an "eyeing" instead. Furthermore, I think it is beneficial to town if people cast votes seriously. Of course, I do agree on using it to apply pressure, but the effect diminishes if everyone just throws it around. @roflwaffles55 Current strategy seems to be "pressing one guy until he is dry", which make sense for both Scums and Town. Scum: + Show Spoiler +<pick one target> and hope (s)he is inexperience and find out if (s)he has a power role. If (s)he slips, proceed to pursue for a mislynch. Town: + Show Spoiler +There is very little activity right now. <target> seems most scummy, lets see what we can squeeze out of him, and even if I am wrong we can get people to talk more. @suki First started case based on false contradictions. Votes trackd00r. Retracts later and claims she thought the (non-existence) contradiction was not as severe as she thought. I find this slightly scummy but it is well within reason for a townie to behave this way (get discussions rolling, which no doubt is successful) That said, I sensed an organized "pattern". Sending two goons to + Show Spoiler +Reads post --> Throw out case (with weak evidence/logical support) --> vote --> see response/find ways to abuse. while one hiding in the dark. I think I might have read too much into it, and it was just 2 eager townies trying to get things rolling. I would like to hear opinions from other people.
I took too long just to type out a post (constant googling, spell checking) I only listed two person here because they stood out more to me: I planned to write a summary for everyone but it is too late now. Living at the other side of the hemisphere from the rest of players kind of suck. Will be seeing you guys in 7 hours, off to bed.
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On June 14 2012 03:24 s0Lstice wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 02:02 Crossfire99 wrote:
--snipped
Be careful roflwaffle, votes are only easily removable if you are around to remove them. You never know what might happen. Also, votes early on in the day cycle that don't really mean much followed by complete disappearance during a controversial lynch can be scum tactic to avoid making mistakes in a heated debate that occurs last minute.
What an odd thing to say. Your message boils down to: don't vote because you might not be around later, and when that happens you are going to look scummy. Discouraging voting for such an arbitrary reason looks kind of scummy. Also, this hall-monitor stuff is a comfortable way for scum to post and have it look like they are pro-town.
I never said don't vote. I just said be careful about throwing your votes around willy-nilly under the premise that you are going to remove them later. I never even said don't do that. I just don't want someone sticking someone else with a vote for flimsy reasons that ends up sealing a lynch because they couldn't get back in time to change it. That was the entire point of those two sentences.
As for the mention of the scum tactic, I'm just saying that sometimes scum can not take part in big discussions later in the day by voting early and then disappearing. I'm just trying to help roflwaffle, by trying to get him to think about taking his vote seriously and having good reasons for whatever he does. If no one holds anyone accountable mafia can just breeze on by.
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On June 14 2012 02:45 s0Lstice wrote:
Crossfire99, what do you think of what I said about Mouldy Jeb?
Roflwaffles55, same question.
I would agree with what you said, his statements and arguments have been fairly baseless with little to no purpose.
He has his "suspicions" of me and says to watch Milton, but brings nothing substantial otherwise. The lack of bringing forth any real argument is what makes me suspicious.
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On June 14 2012 03:51 roflwaffles55 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 02:45 s0Lstice wrote:
Crossfire99, what do you think of what I said about Mouldy Jeb?
Roflwaffles55, same question. I would agree with what you said, his statements and arguments have been fairly baseless with little to no purpose. He has his "suspicions" of me and says to watch Milton, but brings nothing substantial otherwise. The lack of bringing forth any real argument is what makes me suspicious.
my apologies, either way that was very early game 1. really should a sensible person take suspicions that were made very early on and 2. yes that was probably not the best thing to say.
@trackd00r
that was an early game suspicion I didn't cast a vote or persist I merely summarised my views in a post.
I just got back from work and ill read over some of the cases that have been raised and post my view on the situation shortly.
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On June 13 2012 12:04 trackd00r wrote:
s0lstice: Is it my idea or you already gained trust from Sciberbia?
I'm off to bed now. Can't do much atm. Will be back in 8 hours ~
Sorry I missed this. You are asking if I trust sciberbia right now? Put simply: no. He hasn't posted enough yet.
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Alright, I caught up on the thread after I woke up. Here are my thoughts.
suki
I can see her play being overzealous townie, but she hasn't done much to convince me. Another reason I'm suspicious is that she's ignored my case against her. I remember during my game as scum it was very tempting to ignore pressure and just hope that people would drop their cases instead of actually defending myself. I won't be dropping my pressure until I get a satisfactory response. @ s0Lstice, be wary of meta arguments. Scum, especially newbie scum, adapt their play from game to game.
Crossfire99
He's been coaching a lot without putting up any real content besides his weak pressure on austinmcc. I've got my eye on him.
alan133
roflwaffle's case on him was fairly decent. I don't understand why he dropped it. He's "contributed" without putting much pressure on players.
roflwaffles55
I'm suspicious of this guy based on two of his posts. First one is a response to s0Lstice/sciberbia: Sure!
When it comes to lynching lurkers I would agree in that it shouldn't be the focus, and would prefer to lynch someone acting scummy day 1.
As to NL, I am firmly against it and if we can't get a clear majority on scummy-acting folks then we should at least lynch a lurker, especially on D1 and 2.
Notice the eager to please tone of his post. I'm looking at it as a possible scumslip. His 2nd suspicious post: I agree that I may have been a bit too aggressive right off the bat, but I implore you to look at my arguments and his, and take more from it then just an overzealous attempt on my part.
##unvote alan133
There you go, I'm still suspicious, but I may have underestimated the significance of a vote.
Notice how self-conscious he is in this post, especially in that last line. I realize that several players weren't interested in his case, but there is absolutely no harm in keeping pressure on a player until they give you a satisfactory defense. Essentially he backs down from his pressure based on a tiny reprimand from Crossfire. It seems like he's trying to keep himself out of the spotlight.
Mouldy Jeb
Ditto what s0Lstice said. The one thing I have to add is for people to look at his latest post. He apologizes and makes a bare bones defense of his posting that reeks of self-conscious play. He's #1 on my scumdar right now.
Golden + HeavOnEarth
Get in the thread and post more. You guys can start by giving me your opinions on this post.
Obviously all these players can't be scum. I'll be looking through the thread more to see what I can do about narrowing down my list of suspicious players. Right now I'm leaning towards roflwaffles and MJ. I'm waiting to see if suki actually defends herself this time around.
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On June 14 2012 06:38 Miltonkram wrote:roflwaffles55I'm suspicious of this guy based on two of his posts. First one is a response to s0Lstice/sciberbia: Show nested quote +Sure!
When it comes to lynching lurkers I would agree in that it shouldn't be the focus, and would prefer to lynch someone acting scummy day 1.
As to NL, I am firmly against it and if we can't get a clear majority on scummy-acting folks then we should at least lynch a lurker, especially on D1 and 2. Notice the eager to please tone of his post. I'm looking at it as a possible scumslip. His 2nd suspicious post: Show nested quote +I agree that I may have been a bit too aggressive right off the bat, but I implore you to look at my arguments and his, and take more from it then just an overzealous attempt on my part.
##unvote alan133
There you go, I'm still suspicious, but I may have underestimated the significance of a vote. Notice how self-conscious he is in this post, especially in that last line. I realize that several players weren't interested in his case, but there is absolutely no harm in keeping pressure on a player until they give you a satisfactory defense. Essentially he backs down from his pressure based on a tiny reprimand from Crossfire. It seems like he's trying to keep himself out of the spotlight. Obviously all these players can't be scum. I'll be looking through the thread more to see what I can do about narrowing down my list of suspicious players. Right now I'm leaning towards roflwaffles and MJ. I'm waiting to see if suki actually defends herself this time around.
You've defeated yourself in your own argument against me, with the explanation as to why I backed down on alan133. I backed down because I hadn't received any support towards my case. You also defeated yourself by saying that I'm trying to keep myself out of the spotlight, if I wanted that, I wouldn't have been the third person to post a case, let alone one I knew would net me a bunch of flak.
I made the case to put pressure on someone that was lacking any real opinion, whether because he felt that there wasn't enough data to form one, or because he was hiding from the spotlight himself.
The evidence or suspicions that you have brought up can be answered so easily I'm not sure why you didn't come up with them yourself.
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On June 14 2012 03:50 alan133 wrote:@roflwaffles55 + Show Spoiler +Yes, I did vote you, but you forget that votes are easily removable, and the fact that you had to write a sensationalist paragraph in red text rather then just poke through the obvious logical holes in my cases convince me that you have something to lose, whether it be scum, blue, or just poor play. The red text was meant to emphasize on how easily I could've built a case against you if I were to use the same speculations and baseless assumptions. I also noticed you were focusing a lot on me, from asking my opinion to my opening post, proceeding to accuse me of supposedly leaking "scum-tells", and then voting me. I thought of your possible motives, and it made sense for both town and scum plays. (see summary) But enough of you, it is late over here so I think it is better for me to notify my leave as well as writing a summary. + Show Spoiler +I feel like there are still not enough post to build any case on. Maybe because of time difference everyone is sleeping while I am refreshing the page every 3 seconds. My standing on voting. + Show Spoiler + I know I might be talking votes too seriously as stated, but IMO townies should behave seriously and cast every votes (even if it is retractable) as if they are not allowed to retract, in other words, use ##FoS to declare an "eyeing" instead. Furthermore, I think it is beneficial to town if people cast votes seriously. Of course, I do agree on using it to apply pressure, but the effect diminishes if everyone just throws it around. @roflwaffles55 Current strategy seems to be "pressing one guy until he is dry", which make sense for both Scums and Town. Scum: + Show Spoiler +<pick one target> and hope (s)he is inexperience and find out if (s)he has a power role. If (s)he slips, proceed to pursue for a mislynch. Town: + Show Spoiler +There is very little activity right now. <target> seems most scummy, lets see what we can squeeze out of him, and even if I am wrong we can get people to talk more. @suki First started case based on false contradictions. Votes trackd00r. Retracts later and claims she thought the (non-existence) contradiction was not as severe as she thought. I find this slightly scummy but it is well within reason for a townie to behave this way (get discussions rolling, which no doubt is successful) That said, I sensed an organized "pattern". Sending two goons to + Show Spoiler +Reads post --> Throw out case (with weak evidence/logical support) --> vote --> see response/find ways to abuse. while one hiding in the dark. I think I might have read too much into it, and it was just 2 eager townies trying to get things rolling. I would like to hear opinions from other people. I took too long just to type out a post (constant googling, spell checking) I only listed two person here because they stood out more to me: I planned to write a summary for everyone but it is too late now. Living at the other side of the hemisphere from the rest of players kind of suck. Will be seeing you guys in 7 hours, off to bed.
Interesting that the first legitimate read that you come up with is a conspiracy between me and suki. Not only is it completely ridiculous, but you second guess it immediately, again leaving your options open so that you can't actually be held accountable for anything. Put yourself on the line, start contributing to the big picture and not just responding emotionally to me, and think logically about what you're going to post.
The biggest thing that keeps irking me about your play is your seeming avoidance of actual decision making, the fact that even when criticizing my play you can't say "I think this is scummy". You go all the way around it and put the possible motivations from both angles.
I would appreciate it if someone other then me looked at alan133's posts and formed their own independent opinion on him.
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@ roflwaffles
Ok, I see what you're saying. I thought you were completely backing off of alan even though you've made a decent case against him. I still don't like the fact that you took your vote off of him based on a wrist-slap from Crossfire, but I guess I misunderstood your intent. Since you're still pursuing your case on alan the unvote seems less scummy.
As far as alan133 is concerned I think you may have something. He's put very little pressure on anyone. When he does pressure he seems wishy-washy as hell.
Top two scumreads as of this moment: Mouldy Jeb and alan133.
@Crossfire, Golden, and HeavOnEarth
What do you think of these two players and the cases against them? Are there any scummy players you think we're missing? We need more activity out of you guys. Of the three of you, only heaven's put decent pressure on anyone and even that is difficult to take seriously because he hasn't followed up on his reads at all.
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Just got back and am in the process of making notes on everyone, but going to be afk for a couple hours. alan133 is the topic of discussion right now so here are my thoughts on him
"I started writing before I refresh and saw s0lstice's post" + Show Spoiler +
First of all, i think he is referring to my post. Don't know why everyone's been calling it s0lstice's post.
Anyway, alan has gotten some flak for this statement but I actually think it is more townie indicative than anything.
First of all, I highly doubt he'd lie about refreshing. There's really no point to that.
Secondly, consider that he didn't have to tell us about refreshing and editing. Nobody was pressuring him. He could have easily just scrapped his post and rewritten it. If he was scum, would he want to give us extra information about what posts he's been writing? Probably not. So I see his openness with us as a townie attribute.
Accusation that he has been wishy/washy+ Show Spoiler +
He has made some statements about being neutral and unsure, explicitly talking about "merely listing the possibilities" and how he "does not trust anyone yet".
While wishyness/washiness is a common attribute of newbie scum, I don't find his stances particularly scummy. It doesn't seem like a scummy wishy/washy, just an unsure wishy/washy.
He isn't being subtle about things; he is openly stating that he is unsure. I don't see this as a scumtell.
His question to the mods+ Show Spoiler +
Seems like a pretty honest question. I doubt he's trying to make himself seem townie by asking the mods questions. Looks like he just actually wants to know. And if he were mafia, I think he'd more likely be posting this in the mafia QT
His aggressive response to roflwaffles+ Show Spoiler +
He was put under the suspicion of roflwaffles and somewhat trackd00r. alan is a forum mafia newbie who doesn't know anyone here. If he was mafia, I'd expect him to be scared/timid about being accused, whereas if he is town, I'd expect him to be indignant. I liked that he was aggressive back at roflwaffles.
Overall, there is nothing I see as scummy about alan and a few things that look townie. So I think he's probably town.
got to go now. I'll be back in about two hours.
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Just checking in guys. I'm going to make a post on my top scumreads in a few hours, as well as some errata. Lynch time is fast approaching and we really need to buckle down.
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Hey guys
getting stuck into reading now, expect incoming analysis from myself.
currently at work but expect some @lunch
golden
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I'm off to work. I'll post more later tonight. Leave me something to come back to.
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On June 14 2012 08:38 s0Lstice wrote:
Just checking in guys. I'm going to make a post on my top scumreads in a few hours, as well as some errata. Lynch time is fast approaching and we really need to buckle down.
? lynch isn't for another 24 hours?
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was sort of waiting for MJ to post something after he was like hurr durr ima post soon. i took a look at his previous game though and his posts seem consistent from when he was townie. hes really not helping at all, and definitely still looks scum, but it feels like poor town play rather than mafia.
as for golden im still undecided since he hasnt posted anything what the fuck -_-. why sign up if ur not gonna fucking play
but i guess i doubt hes mafia, i would've expected at least a simple reply to my accusations if he was mafia by now. but it seems he just doesnt give a fuck
@_@ idk. kinda confused at this point
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Regarding rofl's case against alan:
I don't think that case will get us somewhere. Rofl's is tunneling him and the response he's had don't tell to much. I wonder if you are going to continue the pressure to him. Half day has passed, so it would be wise to vote for him if you don't have any other clear option at the moment.
I don't know if you are pushing this case any harder, or at least you are being kinda inconsistent with your thoughts. First you say you want to put down some pressure.
On June 14 2012 07:25 roflwaffles55 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 06:38 Miltonkram wrote:roflwaffles55I'm suspicious of this guy based on two of his posts. First one is a response to s0Lstice/sciberbia: Sure!
When it comes to lynching lurkers I would agree in that it shouldn't be the focus, and would prefer to lynch someone acting scummy day 1.
As to NL, I am firmly against it and if we can't get a clear majority on scummy-acting folks then we should at least lynch a lurker, especially on D1 and 2. Notice the eager to please tone of his post. I'm looking at it as a possible scumslip. His 2nd suspicious post: I agree that I may have been a bit too aggressive right off the bat, but I implore you to look at my arguments and his, and take more from it then just an overzealous attempt on my part.
##unvote alan133
There you go, I'm still suspicious, but I may have underestimated the significance of a vote. Notice how self-conscious he is in this post, especially in that last line. I realize that several players weren't interested in his case, but there is absolutely no harm in keeping pressure on a player until they give you a satisfactory defense. Essentially he backs down from his pressure based on a tiny reprimand from Crossfire. It seems like he's trying to keep himself out of the spotlight. Obviously all these players can't be scum. I'll be looking through the thread more to see what I can do about narrowing down my list of suspicious players. Right now I'm leaning towards roflwaffles and MJ. I'm waiting to see if suki actually defends herself this time around. You've defeated yourself in your own argument against me, with the explanation as to why I backed down on alan133. I backed down because I hadn't received any support towards my case. You also defeated yourself by saying that I'm trying to keep myself out of the spotlight, if I wanted that, I wouldn't have been the third person to post a case, let alone one I knew would net me a bunch of flak.
And then, you start again:
On June 14 2012 07:35 roflwaffles55 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 03:50 alan133 wrote:@roflwaffles55 + Show Spoiler +Yes, I did vote you, but you forget that votes are easily removable, and the fact that you had to write a sensationalist paragraph in red text rather then just poke through the obvious logical holes in my cases convince me that you have something to lose, whether it be scum, blue, or just poor play. The red text was meant to emphasize on how easily I could've built a case against you if I were to use the same speculations and baseless assumptions. I also noticed you were focusing a lot on me, from asking my opinion to my opening post, proceeding to accuse me of supposedly leaking "scum-tells", and then voting me. I thought of your possible motives, and it made sense for both town and scum plays. (see summary) But enough of you, it is late over here so I think it is better for me to notify my leave as well as writing a summary. + Show Spoiler +I feel like there are still not enough post to build any case on. Maybe because of time difference everyone is sleeping while I am refreshing the page every 3 seconds. My standing on voting. + Show Spoiler + I know I might be talking votes too seriously as stated, but IMO townies should behave seriously and cast every votes (even if it is retractable) as if they are not allowed to retract, in other words, use ##FoS to declare an "eyeing" instead. Furthermore, I think it is beneficial to town if people cast votes seriously. Of course, I do agree on using it to apply pressure, but the effect diminishes if everyone just throws it around. @roflwaffles55 Current strategy seems to be "pressing one guy until he is dry", which make sense for both Scums and Town. Scum: + Show Spoiler +<pick one target> and hope (s)he is inexperience and find out if (s)he has a power role. If (s)he slips, proceed to pursue for a mislynch. Town: + Show Spoiler +There is very little activity right now. <target> seems most scummy, lets see what we can squeeze out of him, and even if I am wrong we can get people to talk more. @suki First started case based on false contradictions. Votes trackd00r. Retracts later and claims she thought the (non-existence) contradiction was not as severe as she thought. I find this slightly scummy but it is well within reason for a townie to behave this way (get discussions rolling, which no doubt is successful) That said, I sensed an organized "pattern". Sending two goons to + Show Spoiler +Reads post --> Throw out case (with weak evidence/logical support) --> vote --> see response/find ways to abuse. while one hiding in the dark. I think I might have read too much into it, and it was just 2 eager townies trying to get things rolling. I would like to hear opinions from other people. I took too long just to type out a post (constant googling, spell checking) I only listed two person here because they stood out more to me: I planned to write a summary for everyone but it is too late now. Living at the other side of the hemisphere from the rest of players kind of suck. Will be seeing you guys in 7 hours, off to bed. Interesting that the first legitimate read that you come up with is a conspiracy between me and suki. Not only is it completely ridiculous, but you second guess it immediately, again leaving your options open so that you can't actually be held accountable for anything. Put yourself on the line, start contributing to the big picture and not just responding emotionally to me, and think logically about what you're going to post. The biggest thing that keeps irking me about your play is your seeming avoidance of actual decision making, the fact that even when criticizing my play you can't say "I think this is scummy". You go all the way around it and put the possible motivations from both angles. I would appreciate it if someone other then me looked at alan133's posts and formed their own independent opinion on him.
Are you really backing down? Maybe a vote or a FOS can make it up.
Anyways, Alan133, you can't drop analysis like that. Try to give a good effort to show your thoughts before its too late.
Austin, Have you taken la look to any of these current cases?
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Alright, so I went filter spelunking and explored every nook and cranny. My general impression at this moment is one of disappointment. I know it's rare to get good reads on day 1, but some people's filters are incredibly barren. If I had to lynch right now, here would be my suspects.
HeavOnEarth
He's pretty lurky. His hard stance is on Golden, where he builds a case on the poor guy's intro post. Look at the case:
On June 13 2012 23:52 HeavOnEarth wrote:morning everyone First off, id like to say im suspicious of everyone who tries to stay under the radar. I feel newer mafia players have a tendency to try and stay quiet. That said O.Golden_ne looks the most suspicious to me- Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 09:43 O.Golden_ne wrote:On June 13 2012 09:25 austinmcc wrote:
-snip
I'm not looking to push lurkers early and stay on them for an entire day cycle, killing discussion, but they need to be considered and I'd rather be looking at them on earlier days than when we're close to/at LYLO/MYLO. agreed. NL is bad. Killing lurking is necessary. Lynching scum is great. Lets get the ball rolling and squeeze out the lurkers early so we can narrow things down later on. Looking forward to scumhunting, i'm happy with the deadline on this as its 10am for me in Aust, which means i'll be able to meet the deadlines for lynching in the mornings a little easier. I'll try my hardest this game to meet these deadlines and to contribute useful information rather than filler. Essentially i'm all for an agressive early game. I want to be able to establish some basic reads by the end of Day one, and if theres no-one who's appropriately scummy then we lynch a lurker. Golden Is there anything even remotely helpful in this post? Everyone knows NL is bad. he seems to be posting for the sake of it also, i checked his last game, (he was townie) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=337671&user=92568 u can tell his tone is completely different, and he is generally more helpful.
Think of it like this. Scum will be making cases against people on day 1...they have to. I looked at all the cases people have made, and this one stank especially bad. It's built entirely around a hello post. It has a very artificial feel to it.
Also, he just posted this:
On June 14 2012 08:47 HeavOnEarth wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 08:38 s0Lstice wrote:
Just checking in guys. I'm going to make a post on my top scumreads in a few hours, as well as some errata. Lynch time is fast approaching and we really need to buckle down. ? lynch isn't for another 24 hours?
Townies always feel the pressure of the ticking clock. Half of our time being gone doesn't seem to trouble him. He hasn't really bothered to comment on what's been going on in the thread outside of his own reads.
He's been on Mouldy Jeb's case as well. Here's some more recent(!) material:
On June 14 2012 09:32 HeavOnEarth wrote:
was sort of waiting for MJ to post something after he was like hurr durr ima post soon. i took a look at his previous game though and his posts seem consistent from when he was townie. hes really not helping at all, and definitely still looks scum, but it feels like poor town play rather than mafia.
Confused? Me too. I think this dude has a chance at flipping scum.
alan133
There is already suspicion surrounding him, so I won't rehash. The main thing that raises my eyebrows is his defense against rofflwaffles. It was strong, and that was the problem. He was lightly gouged and hit back full force. This can be a sign of fear, or 'something to hide' as waffles put it.
Mouldy Jeb
There isn't really much of a case here. I went and looked at the Magic:The Gathering mafia, and his style is very similar. His style is dangerous, because it's near impossible to read. There is something to go on with his treatment of rofflwaffles, but that's it. Frankly, I hate the idea of him being around late game.
I would vote for any of these three at this moment, but I'm not in love with any of these cases. We had it easy last game thanks to sciberbia. That said, you do the best with the circumstances you have, and lynch the scummiest player. We still have some time, so I hope we can improve our odds.
Now for the errata. Austinmcc and Crossfire99 really need to post more. Just awful filters. Sciberbia, I have a mental block where I auto-green you in my mind. I fought it off and you really aren't posting much either. I hope you have something for us soon.
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I've been studying the thread and I currently find these 3 most suspicious: suki, Crossfire99, and HeavOnEarth
I've been staring at suki's filter for the last half hour, so I'll dedicate the rest of this post to my case on suki, and detail my thoughts on crossfire and heavonEarth in another post. Here are several reasons why I am suspicious of suki:
Her original accusation of trackd00r+ Show Spoiler +
suki's original accusation of trackd00r was quite strong. She says:
-- This post screams to me that he's trying to be super cautious...
-- BUT WAIT! Just ONE post previous to that he says...
-- try to take a firm stance, and then you do the most scummy wishy-washy-ness thing ever the very next post.
-- ##vote trackd00r
She clearly thinks trackd00r has a good chance of being scum, and is interested in making everyone suspicious of him. Keep this in mind for later.
Anyway, this original accusation drew my attention for a couple reasons.
-- First of all, she twists his words, so her case isn't good
-- As austinmcc said, even if trackd00r had contradicted himself, that's not a great scumtell. Mafia don't intentionally promote mafia policies. That's way too obvious. So I think suki is attacking him for a (percieved) confusing stance, not a scumtell.
-- We lynched suki last game for being wishy/washy. I could definitely see a mafia suki making a bit of a stretch just to make an early "bold" case, and try to look townie. trackd00r would make a good target of such a case since he is new and his first couple posts were a bit confusing (difficult to read).
The way that suki backs off trackd00r+ Show Spoiler +I wasn't too suspicious based on suki's initial accusation. But I really didn't like the way in which she backed down from it. + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 00:06 suki wrote:
As has been pointed out, the contradiction isn't as severe as I initially thought it was.
##unvote trackd00r
I thought at the very least I could rouse a response from trackd00r, however my case was too weak and I feel that no useful information can be gleamed from people simply agreeing on its flimsiness.
Before, she thought there was a severe contradiction. Now, she says that there is still a contradiction, but it isn't that severe. What? I was expecting her to say that she had misread/misunderstood. I still don't see any contradiction at all. Her post suggests that she doesn't want to completely back down from her accusation, but I don't see why she is still suspicious of trackd00r at all. @suki please clarify this To me, the most scummy line in her whole filter is "I thought at the very least I could rouse a response from trackd00r". Reading her original response, she strongly accuses trackd00r and seems very interested in getting him lynched. This line about "at the very least" seems contradictory to that motivation.
general attitude in her filter+ Show Spoiler +
suki was super excited to play this game and was even more excited at the prospect of playing town. Look through her filter. Her posts so far aren't what I would expect from a town suki. After the initial accusation, everything she has said is bland and uninteresting. I don't think she has yet shared any real insight, or shown a lot of interest in helping town. It feels more like she is going through the motions.
how she opens the game+ Show Spoiler +
This is pretty circumstancial, so I don't expect many of you to buy into it, but I find the timing of her first two posts odd. First of all, starting the game about 4 hours late is slightly indicative of mafia. Secondly, why does she post a policy response 6 minutes after her first accusation post? She had clearly read the whole thread before posting either. This is all a bit odd to me, and I think it lends credence to the idea that she just wanted to start off boldly to avoid suspicion.
The only thing in her filter that gives me a townie feel is her recent statement about finding golden's opening post suspicious, but waiting to comment on it. Overall, I would rate suki as definitely suspicious, based mostly on her accusation of trackd00r and the way she backed down from it.
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@Miltonkram
Suki has been painting track's two posts as directly contradictory even though they aren't. This could be an overzealous town play but I don't think it is. What possible motivation could there be for a strong attack on someone with a controversial opinion? Firstly, there's the chance that the town might bandwagon on it. This would be the best possible scenario for suki if she is scum. She leads a bandwagon D1 and she gets a mislynch. Secondly, she gains town cred for appearing aggressive even if she doesn't get the lynch. It seems like a win/win scenario for scum unless of course someone makes the analysis I'm making now.
In summary, the case on trackd00r is pure crap. Making a controversial statement is not a scumtell. I think suki is trying to cover her scumminess by appearing aggressive without making a good case.
Apologies for not addressing you directly. Quite simply you (and several other people after you) answered your question. The motivation is to get the ball rolling some way, any way. I feel I failed a bit in that regard as my attack was so full of holes that there hardly was any discussion developed from it, but it was made with good intentions.
Regarding Mouldyjeb, I agree that he is confusing, however his filter is also quite short. His words definitely are not pro-town, but in my opinion they aren't inherently scummy either, it could just as easily be poor town play.
Now I've gone through a few people's filters, and only one person really sticks out at me: alan133
roflwaffle initiated pressure on him, and then loosened up after Crossfire and I argued in alan's defense. I did not find the case convincing before, but now alan's posted his defense, and now the case is a lot more stronger to me.
As a quick rehash of rofl's initial case, he argued that alan made posts with little controversy, that he wasn't interested or willing to apply pressure on anyone, that he does some bandwagoning.
All true, but possible for both town and scum play. However, with his defense posts, I feel that things are starting to add up. Looking even closer at the filter I feel I've caught some things that I missed before.
+ Show Spoiler +
FMPOV, suki's case was most probably based on a misunderstanding, but (s)he could very well did it intentionally hoping for a bandwagon leading to a mislynch. Note that I am merely listing the possibilities, I do not FoS anyone yet, which can also mean that I do not trust anyone yet.
His initial statement is very verbose and is pro-actively defensive. He's countering arguments to his words before they even come up. He's even countering counter arguments to his words.
"...hoping for a bandwagon leading to a mislynch. [counter] Note I am merely listing the possibilities, I do not FoS anyone yet, [counter-counter] which can also mean I do not trust anyone yet".
He also likes to use FMPOV and IMO a lot, further stressing how his words are subjective.
It's very telling when someone is that self-conscious and defensive, because only mafia really have that motivation.
When called out by waffle for not having suspicions, he gets extremely agitated.
FMPOV, anyone can be scum, and having no FoS does not mean I do not suspect anyone. I merely state that I have no strong scum read as of currently, and in my context, strong means pretty much confirmed.
IMO those who are decisive in throwing votes based on weak or insubstantial claims were somewhat suspicious. I think it is normal for townies to hold doubts and and being decisive as they were less informed. If anything, I just tried to keep an open mind.
He spends a lot of words explaining his reasoning behind saying he doesn't have an FoS. He starts to really use red to emphasize his words, which he had used previously to point out inconsistencies and scummy lines, but not to add emphasis to his words.
Notice that he is spending a lot of effort defending himself and justifying his past words. I feel a townie would be less threatened by such accusations, and instead start trying to apply pressure and otherwise prove their towniness.
.
Following what he feels is an adequate self-defense, he goes on the offensive.
Also, is it me or you were trying to divert the attention AWAY from suki? I don't see how keeping the attention on suki is a bad thing, as you suggested. Show nested quote +His current play is anti-town at best, as he hasn't brought any of his thoughts to the table, and has only left ambiguous and bandwagoning answers to keep attention on those with controversial opinions. Well if you're complaining about not bringing up any of my thoughts, there you have it. I were trying to avoid throwing out suspicions with little to no proof, but if by not doing so is anti-townAs a matter of fact, roflwaffles55 asked for my opinion replying to my opening post, and criticise it being a bandwagon, while forgetting he did the same.
This is extremely extremely scummy to me. What he's saying here is essentially this: "If not giving throwing out suspicions is anti-town, then I will prove my towniness by throwing out suspicions.", followed by attacking the person who attacked him.
He finishes the post by saying
My policy is to stay as neutral as possible, accessing all the possibilities while passively waiting/reading what other people has posted. I do believe this is not a bad-town play, as I am trying to avoid town fighting town scenario while scums lurks and look at the drama while eating pop-corns.
There is a mental disconnect here.
1. He feels throwing out suspicions is bad for town
2. He tries to prove his towniness by throwing out a suspicion at his attacker
3. He reinforces his belief that staying neutral is not bad town play
If he really was town and he really believed that his way of playing was optimal, why would he have the need to go completely against his beliefs to prove his towniness?
In his next post, the same trend continues.
He spends time justifying his red text:
The red text was meant to emphasize on how easily I could've built a case against you if I were to use the same speculations and baseless assumptions.
but the interesting thing is.. if it was so easy for him to build a case against waffles, why didn't he? Of course, because he didn't have any. He was simply defending via attacking.
And then there's the whole weird analysis that he does where he analyses my case and waffle's case, comes to the conclusion that:
1. waffles could be either scum or town (???)
2. somehow finds me slightly scummy even though he previously thought that my case was based on a misunderstanding (and went to extra lengths to state that he did not FOS anyone yet),
3. Some sort of mafia conspiracy theory out of left field what??
4. Which he backs off saying 'I think I might have read too much into it."
So, he finally makes analyses on people, but only the two most active and controversial ones, and doesn't come to any solid conclusions. He makes a really weird statement regarding mafia alterior motives that doesn't make any sense coming from a town's perspective, but comes naturally to a mafia who is trying to spin scum motivations on townies.
Summary
1. He's pro-actively defensive
2. Justifies his own actions instead of trying to make pro-town actions
3. Defensive Aggression
4. Inconsistency regarding a neutral/suspicion-throwing playstyle
5. Attacks the two most controversial posters with a questionable theory for townies to think of that he just kind of throws out there.
6. Still no solid reads, analysis or suspicions despite (kind of??) conceding that not throwing out suspicions is anti-town.
##vote alan133
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I'm still working on my response; hold your horses i have a busy life!
quickly now though, to me it was obvious that miltonkrams vote was a friendly gesture. obviously not to be taken seriously.
@HeavOnEarth. obviously i havent been super active, but i dont feel like my first post was nearly as scummy as its been made out to be. You yourself havent been the most active!
Golden
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@sciberbia
I think a lot of your argument stems from the impression that I was absolutely sure trackd00r was scum. I definitely worded my post that way on purpose, in spite of knowing my case wasn't solid.
I was genuinely surprised that my case was as weak as it was. Basically one good post from you was strong enough to let everyone basically say 'yeah, I agree.' My comment that 'at the very least I could rouse a response from trackd00r' was because I thought even if my case was really weak, I could aggravate an interesting reply from trackd00r, but it didn't.
Regarding the contradiction, and the comment that the contradiction isn't as severe as I thought it was. It's simply not taking the time to really think about the topic, after reading the rebuttals and being disappointed. There is no contradiction, it was just me being careless with my choice of words.
Actually, the offhanded and subtly confident way he deflected my attack is a townie point for him in my book, so as it stands I don't suspect trackd00r at all.
Hmhm. I just posted a big thing on alan. I have been away all day and it took me forever to look at the thread and all the filters and make a post that really contributed to the thread.
As for opening the game, I posted my policy post after the accusation because I wrote the accusation first. I did want to start the thread off boldly, I'll give you that.
And now I've spent like three hours on these two posts and I have things to do before I sleep, so good night! I'll try to find time in the morning to contribute but I may not be able to until after work.
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As promised, here are my thoughts on crossfire and heavonEarth.
crossfire
There isn't any one thing that looks super scummy, but nothing in his filter gives me a townie feel, and there are a handful of small things that suggest he is scum:
his suspicions on austin+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +The bolded part of this post by austin makes me suspicious of him. + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 22:23 austinmcc wrote:
I don't read those posts as contradictory, believe the second one clarifies the first and explains that, while he'd consider a NL, the standard is higher than "Town is lynching someone that isn't one of my top couple reads."
That said, even if the two statements are entirely contradictory, I don't really see anything scummy in that. More inclined to see contradictions concerning votes and reads as scummy, where someone has stated one thing but then has to take a party line, rather than super early statements concerning a no lynch. There's no agenda to push on that issue. Two completely contradictory statements without reasoning for the change is very suspicious. This is a good way to catch scum. They know the alignment of every person, so they have to make cases that they know are wrong (excluding bussing). This can lead to contradictory posts to make them better fit in with the current town mindset. Austin, why don't you think that contradictory statements are suspicious? This is exactly the kind of D1 case I would expect a scum to make. Austin makes the somewhat peculiar assertion that there is nothing scummy about contradicting yourself on policy during the early game. Whether or not you agree with this statement is irrelevant. The point is, what does a mafia Austin stand to gain by making a statement like this? Is he planning on contradicting himself later? No. It's very likely that he actually believes what he said so the fact that he said it isn't indicative of his alignment. I don't think Austin's statement is scummy at all. But, it is definitely a statement that a mafia could attack, because it seems illogical. It's easy to criticize. And that's what crossfire did. This is the kind of thing mafia do D1: attack people for seemingly illogical statements even though it isn't a scumtell. Like the mafia's attacks on Vivax from last game.
his stance on Mouldy Jeb+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 03:38 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 02:45 s0Lstice wrote:
Crossfire99, what do you think of what I said about Mouldy Jeb?
Roflwaffles55, same question. Yeah Mouldy is acting really weird. He needs to get active to explain himself. Everything he has said so far lacks good reasoning. s0Lstice, an influential player and good townie, calls Mouldy Jeb his #1 suspicion. s0Lstice then explicitly asks crossfire for an opinion on Mouldy. Crossfire does exactly what I would expect a mafia to do. Agrees with the influential player on his #1 scumread, reiterating what s0Lstice said. Mouldy Jeb would undoubtedly be an easy lynch today, and assuming that he is town, would take the pressure off mafia. And if crossfire is so suspicious of MJ, why didn't he say anything until s0Lstice prompted him? I grant that none of this is solid evidence and that a townie could plausibly act the same way, but crossfire's response is definitely consistent with mafia behavior.
Otherwise is avoiding scumhunting+ Show Spoiler +
Looking through the rest of his filter, he doesn't say much meaty stuff. In his first post, he rehashes a lot of what previous people had said. And after that, he talks a lot about policy issues such as when to vote and how to pressure people. Nothing too controversial in his entire filter.
Overall, I'd say crossfire looks a bit scummy.
HeavOnEarth
I don't have all that much too analyze with HeavOn Earth, but a couple things look scummy
throws suspicion on several easy targets+ Show Spoiler +My main problem with him is that he has halfheartedly thrown suspicion onto golden, MJ, and crossfire. All three of these players were rather quiet (at least initially) and relatively easy targets. As s0sltice said, heavOnEarth's actual cases were unimpressive. Here are heavOnEarth's scumhunting posts: + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 23:52 HeavOnEarth wrote:...That said O.Golden_ne looks the most suspicious to me- *quotes Golden* Is there anything even remotely helpful in this post? Everyone knows NL is bad. he seems to be posting for the sake of it also, i checked his last game, (he was townie) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=337671&user=92568 u can tell his tone is completely different, and he is generally more helpful. also id like to point out crossfire is completely inactive, whereas in past games he was a pretty talkative little townie. thoughts? On June 14 2012 02:39 HeavOnEarth wrote:As for my suspicions, golden still hasn't replied, and there seems to be a lot of random fluff RIGHT AFTER my accusation, by both Mouldy Jeb AND crossfire( oh hey there nice of u to suddenly wake up ) this is a common mafia tactic, to throw the spotlight off someone being accused. check out Mouldy Jeb's posts, and accusations Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 00:20 Mouldy Jeb wrote:
nope roffle that was a gut feeling about you that why I stated I have no evidence Why would someone try to direct suspicions with NO reasoning?
And now he becomes wishy/washy+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 09:32 HeavOnEarth wrote:
was sort of waiting for MJ to post something after he was like hurr durr ima post soon. i took a look at his previous game though and his posts seem consistent from when he was townie. hes really not helping at all, and definitely still looks scum, but it feels like poor town play rather than mafia.
as for golden im still undecided since he hasnt posted anything what the fuck -_-. why sign up if ur not gonna fucking play
but i guess i doubt hes mafia, i would've expected at least a simple reply to my accusations if he was mafia by now. but it seems he just doesnt give a fuck
@_@ idk. kinda confused at this point In this post he becomes wishy/washy about his suspicions on MJ and golden. In particular he says "as far as golden im still undecided". What? Before, golden seemed most suspicious to heavOnEarth. Only recently has he become undecided. This is pretty wishy/washy. The only reason I don't see this as super scummy is that he voluntarily adjusted his reads; nobody asked him to clarify them.
My suspicions on HeavOnEarth are tempered by some of the boldness in his filter, such as
-- saying "it doesn't matter if your suggestions are completely bad"
-- his questioning s0Lstice about the lynch not being for 24 hours
-- his abrasive summary of how MJ and golden have been playing
Overall, I'd say HeavOnEarth is somewhat suspicious
suki
I see that suki has recently doubled or tripled the size of her filter in just two posts. I'm going to read through these and figure out how they affect my read on her.
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On June 14 2012 09:38 trackd00r wrote:Regarding rofl's case against alan: I don't think that case will get us somewhere. Rofl's is tunneling him and the response he's had don't tell to much. I wonder if you are going to continue the pressure to him. Half day has passed, so it would be wise to vote for him if you don't have any other clear option at the moment. I don't know if you are pushing this case any harder, or at least you are being kinda inconsistent with your thoughts. First you say you want to put down some pressure. Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 07:25 roflwaffles55 wrote:On June 14 2012 06:38 Miltonkram wrote:roflwaffles55I'm suspicious of this guy based on two of his posts. First one is a response to s0Lstice/sciberbia: Sure!
When it comes to lynching lurkers I would agree in that it shouldn't be the focus, and would prefer to lynch someone acting scummy day 1.
As to NL, I am firmly against it and if we can't get a clear majority on scummy-acting folks then we should at least lynch a lurker, especially on D1 and 2. Notice the eager to please tone of his post. I'm looking at it as a possible scumslip. His 2nd suspicious post: I agree that I may have been a bit too aggressive right off the bat, but I implore you to look at my arguments and his, and take more from it then just an overzealous attempt on my part.
##unvote alan133
There you go, I'm still suspicious, but I may have underestimated the significance of a vote. Notice how self-conscious he is in this post, especially in that last line. I realize that several players weren't interested in his case, but there is absolutely no harm in keeping pressure on a player until they give you a satisfactory defense. Essentially he backs down from his pressure based on a tiny reprimand from Crossfire. It seems like he's trying to keep himself out of the spotlight. Obviously all these players can't be scum. I'll be looking through the thread more to see what I can do about narrowing down my list of suspicious players. Right now I'm leaning towards roflwaffles and MJ. I'm waiting to see if suki actually defends herself this time around. You've defeated yourself in your own argument against me, with the explanation as to why I backed down on alan133. I backed down because I hadn't received any support towards my case. You also defeated yourself by saying that I'm trying to keep myself out of the spotlight, if I wanted that, I wouldn't have been the third person to post a case, let alone one I knew would net me a bunch of flak. And then, you start again: Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 07:35 roflwaffles55 wrote:On June 14 2012 03:50 alan133 wrote:@roflwaffles55 + Show Spoiler +Yes, I did vote you, but you forget that votes are easily removable, and the fact that you had to write a sensationalist paragraph in red text rather then just poke through the obvious logical holes in my cases convince me that you have something to lose, whether it be scum, blue, or just poor play. The red text was meant to emphasize on how easily I could've built a case against you if I were to use the same speculations and baseless assumptions. I also noticed you were focusing a lot on me, from asking my opinion to my opening post, proceeding to accuse me of supposedly leaking "scum-tells", and then voting me. I thought of your possible motives, and it made sense for both town and scum plays. (see summary) But enough of you, it is late over here so I think it is better for me to notify my leave as well as writing a summary. + Show Spoiler +I feel like there are still not enough post to build any case on. Maybe because of time difference everyone is sleeping while I am refreshing the page every 3 seconds. My standing on voting. + Show Spoiler + I know I might be talking votes too seriously as stated, but IMO townies should behave seriously and cast every votes (even if it is retractable) as if they are not allowed to retract, in other words, use ##FoS to declare an "eyeing" instead. Furthermore, I think it is beneficial to town if people cast votes seriously. Of course, I do agree on using it to apply pressure, but the effect diminishes if everyone just throws it around. @roflwaffles55 Current strategy seems to be "pressing one guy until he is dry", which make sense for both Scums and Town. Scum: + Show Spoiler +<pick one target> and hope (s)he is inexperience and find out if (s)he has a power role. If (s)he slips, proceed to pursue for a mislynch. Town: + Show Spoiler +There is very little activity right now. <target> seems most scummy, lets see what we can squeeze out of him, and even if I am wrong we can get people to talk more. @suki First started case based on false contradictions. Votes trackd00r. Retracts later and claims she thought the (non-existence) contradiction was not as severe as she thought. I find this slightly scummy but it is well within reason for a townie to behave this way (get discussions rolling, which no doubt is successful) That said, I sensed an organized "pattern". Sending two goons to + Show Spoiler +Reads post --> Throw out case (with weak evidence/logical support) --> vote --> see response/find ways to abuse. while one hiding in the dark. I think I might have read too much into it, and it was just 2 eager townies trying to get things rolling. I would like to hear opinions from other people. I took too long just to type out a post (constant googling, spell checking) I only listed two person here because they stood out more to me: I planned to write a summary for everyone but it is too late now. Living at the other side of the hemisphere from the rest of players kind of suck. Will be seeing you guys in 7 hours, off to bed. Interesting that the first legitimate read that you come up with is a conspiracy between me and suki. Not only is it completely ridiculous, but you second guess it immediately, again leaving your options open so that you can't actually be held accountable for anything. Put yourself on the line, start contributing to the big picture and not just responding emotionally to me, and think logically about what you're going to post. The biggest thing that keeps irking me about your play is your seeming avoidance of actual decision making, the fact that even when criticizing my play you can't say "I think this is scummy". You go all the way around it and put the possible motivations from both angles. I would appreciate it if someone other then me looked at alan133's posts and formed their own independent opinion on him. Are you really backing down? Maybe a vote or a FOS can make it up. Anyways, Alan133, you can't drop analysis like that. Try to give a good effort to show your thoughts before its too late. Austin, Have you taken la look to any of these current cases?
I'm currently waiting on Mouldy Jeb's and alan133's responses to the cases brought against them, until something convinces me otherwise, I still believe that alan133 is increasingly suspicious.
##FoS alan133
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alan133
There has been a lot of material posted on alan and an influential handful of people find him suspicious. Here's a summary of opinions on him: + Show Spoiler +
suspicious: suki, s0Lstice, waffles, miltonkram
not convinced: trackd00r, crossfire
defensive: me
no comment: MJ, golden, austin, HeavOnEarth
More of my thoughts on alan+ Show Spoiler +
With 4 people willing to vote him, he is in danger of being lynched. I still do not think he is scum. His posts may be difficult reading, but overall, I think he has tried to be open and transparent.
It is true that he has taken up a policy of being indecisive and "open minded", but he has at least stated this forthright, instead of being sneaky about it.
I didn't follow his conspiracy theory either, but half-heartedly suggesting conpsiracy theories doesn't seem like something a mafia would be likely to do.
Finally, s0Lstice and suki have both talked about alan's over-defensiveness and reactionary aggressiveness. I'm just not convinced that these are attributes of a mafia. His defense just drew even more attention to himself - something that a mafia certainly would not want. To me, his defense reads as indignant and frustrated moreso than scared.
@MJ, golden, austin, HeavOnEarth
I'd like to hear opinions on alan. He's drawn several players' suspicions. Would you be comfortable with lynching him?
suki
my thoughts on suki's accusation of alan+ Show Spoiler +
suki recently posted a large, well-thought accusation of alan. I think she broke down his posts nicely and made some reasonable points. I could definitely see this post as analysis from a townie suki. However, alan has already been deemed suspicious by miltonkram, s0Lstice, and waffles. On top of that, his posts are difficult to follow and easy to attack. So I could also see a mafia suki making this post. Overall, I consider it a small point in her favor for doing some dedicated scumhunting.
my thoughts on suki's defense+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 13:36 suki wrote:
@sciberbia
I think a lot of your argument stems from the impression that I was absolutely sure trackd00r was scum. I definitely worded my post that way on purpose, in spite of knowing my case wasn't solid.
I was genuinely surprised that my case was as weak as it was. Basically one good post from you was strong enough to let everyone basically say 'yeah, I agree.' My comment that 'at the very least I could rouse a response from trackd00r' was because I thought even if my case was really weak, I could aggravate an interesting reply from trackd00r, but it didn't.
Regarding the contradiction, and the comment that the contradiction isn't as severe as I thought it was. It's simply not taking the time to really think about the topic, after reading the rebuttals and being disappointed. There is no contradiction, it was just me being careless with my choice of words.
Actually, the offhanded and subtly confident way he deflected my attack is a townie point for him in my book, so as it stands I don't suspect trackd00r at all.
Hmhm. I just posted a big thing on alan. I have been away all day and it took me forever to look at the thread and all the filters and make a post that really contributed to the thread.
As for opening the game, I posted my policy post after the accusation because I wrote the accusation first. I did want to start the thread off boldly, I'll give you that.
And now I've spent like three hours on these two posts and I have things to do before I sleep, so good night! I'll try to find time in the morning to contribute but I may not be able to until after work. I'm suspicious of this explanation because it is admitting that she was being nontransparent. She's basically asking us not to hold her to what she said, because she didn't really mean what she said. It's possible that she is town and was just being devious to start some discussion, but non-transparency is a definite mafia characteristic. Similarly, her line about "I did want to start the thread off boldly, I'll give you that" suggests adhering to her own personal agenda to look townie, which is more consistent with a mafia's objectives than a townie's.
In summary, suki's last two posts do little to alleviate my suspicions.
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Yikes only 16 hours until the deadline and I'll be sleeping/working during most of that. I'm really tired and going to sleep now. Won't be super active again until about 1.5 hours before the deadline, but I'll try to keep up with the thread from work.
It is really important that everyone gives their opinions on lynch candidates. If you'd be happy to vote for someone, say so!
Personally, I'd like to vote for suki, crossfire, or HeavOnEarth. I have no read on MJ or golden. I would not like to lynch alan.
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Okay. Love it or hate it i haven't been too present thus fair. That being said i'm about to drop some knowledge on everyone. I'm just gonna post this little post structure so you know im working on it as we speak.
Summary of D1 to date (this is more for my benefit because i've been away and i find it a good method of developing insight into a situation.
Response regarding Alan, HeavonEarth and Suki situations (at a glance these names seem to be trending highly)
My reads and analysis
Any sexy tidbits and notable nuggets
this is going to be my most active time over the next few hours as i've got the night off and i'm in bed on my laptop!
see you on the otherside of a Wall of Text.
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Day 1 Votecount
Sciberbia
Miltokram
trackd00r
suki
alan133 (1)
roflwaffles55
suki
7 votes required to lynch.
Deadline is at 00:00 GMT (+00:00), which is approx 15 hours from now.
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I'm going to back down from my pressure on alan based on this post. ---snip
I took too long just to type out a post (constant googling, spell checking) I only listed two person here because they stood out more to me: I planned to write a summary for everyone but it is too late now. Living at the other side of the hemisphere from the rest of players kind of suck. Will be seeing you guys in 7 hours, off to bed.
It looks like he's a non-native English speaker. I can understand him having difficulty with the language, let alone conveying a tone that pressures other players. If that's the case I would like to hear more of what he has to say. He's shown a willingness to think deeply and consider all possible lines of play that I think may be valuable to the town. By no means am I clearing him of suspicion, but there is a certain townie logic to some of his actions now that I think more about it. I think we have several better lynch targets anyway. I'll outline who I will support for lynch in my next post.
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@suki
I am not sure if this is a impulsive call caused by the below statement I made:
+ Show Spoiler +@suki
First started case based on false contradictions. Votes trackd00r.
Retracts later and claims she thought the (non-existence) contradiction was not as severe as she thought. I find this slightly scummy but it is well within reason for a townie to behave this way (get discussions rolling, which no doubt is successful)
That said, I sensed an organized "pattern". Sending two goons to - Hide Spoiler -
Reads post --> Throw out case (with weak evidence/logical support) --> vote --> see response/find ways to abuse.
while one hiding in the dark.
I think I might have read too much into it, and it was just 2 eager townies trying to get things rolling. I would like to hear opinions from other people.
I see you changed from soft defending me, to an instant "write a case->vote".
But given that you aren't, l will just refute to the summary you made.
+ Show Spoiler +Summary 1. He's pro-actively defensive + Show Spoiler +I was tunneled by rolf, and I choose to confront it head on hoping it will clear myself. 2. Justifies his own actions instead of trying to make pro-town actions + Show Spoiler +How else am I going to defend myself other than justifying it? And you claimed I did not make "pro-town" actions. I beg to differ. I actively throw out all the possible motives. I believe later on day 2 when more solid facts are present (killing pattern/blue role have more ideas), we can rule out some of these motives to get a better picture. Right now, I am merely focusing on reading every player's patterns. 3. Defensive Aggression + Show Spoiler +You just repeated point 1. 4. Inconsistency regarding a neutral/suspicion-throwing playstyle + Show Spoiler +If you are referring to the "red text mocked up case" I posted in defense of rolf's case by "proof by contradiction". 5. Attacks the two most controversial posters with a questionable theory for townies to think of that he just kind of throws out there. + Show Spoiler +How is rolf controversial? Also, I don't find my theory "questionable". I merely listed what happened. Please provide clear "questions" instead of vague accusation. 6. Still no solid reads, analysis or suspicions despite (kind of??) conceding that not throwing out suspicions is anti-town. + Show Spoiler +Throwing random "solid reads" without proofs or substantial supporting reason is just as well as filler. I did not throw "solid reads", instead I posted the possibilities, which because of (refer to reply to #2), I think it is not scummy or even anti-town. ##vote alan133 + Show Spoiler +Another vote? I hope you read my stand on the weight of votes. It seems to me like you are either trying to start a bandwagon, or is not interested to play in a serious manner, which to me, is a solid anti-town behavior.
Also,
+ Show Spoiler +
This is extremely extremely scummy to me. What he's saying here is essentially this: "If not giving throwing out suspicions is anti-town, then I will prove my towniness by throwing out suspicions.", followed by attacking the person who attacked him.
He finishes the post by saying
My policy is to stay as neutral as possible, accessing all the possibilities while passively waiting/reading what other people has posted. I do believe this is not a bad-town play, as I am trying to avoid town fighting town scenario while scums lurks and look at the drama while eating pop-corns.
There is a mental disconnect here.
1. He feels throwing out suspicions is bad for town
2. He tries to prove his towniness by throwing out a suspicion at his attacker
3. He reinforces his belief that staying neutral is not bad town play
If he really was town and he really believed that his way of playing was optimal, why would he have the need to go completely against his beliefs to prove his towniness?
In his next post, the same trend continues.
He spends time justifying his red text:
The red text was meant to emphasize on how easily I could've built a case against you if I were to use the same speculations and baseless assumptions.
but the interesting thing is.. if it was so easy for him to build a case against waffles, why didn't he? Of course, because he didn't have any. He was simply defending via attacking.
I did not build a case against waffle because it was merely a "proof by contradiction". I did not proceed to make a case against him because I want to refrain from being bias, which should agree with my policy.
I just reasoned with myself why people think being neutral is bad. Pressuring someone even without firm evidence does not mean it is bad, even when the target is innocent, it gets people talking, and we can observe people's response and analyse the pattern. I got too paranoid of being too bias in my judgement. I also realize why people despise neutrals like what I originally wanted to be, that is because neutrals are seen to be afraid to face the consequence when people realized he lead a lynch on a townie.
I hope people don't go "oh u contradicted your original policy" but nevertheless, I will change my game plan after seeing how it is beneficial.
As for my opinion on the game right now, my attacking policy is to find "patterns" or indications of players "working" in a group. For day 1, there is no kill pattern to analyse. I suggested a "theory" based on a pattern I noticed, and was hoping third parties will comment on it, but unfortunately, only rolf and suki, the subject of my observation, commented on it.
I am going to take on rolf and suki. I know it may seems like I am retaliating whoever that pressure me, and it could be bias, but this is what I honestly feel.
This is my revised "conspiracy theory".
+ Show Spoiler +
Suki screwed up with a really bad case.
Rolf tried to divert attention from suki, so suki can retract "easily".
-Rolf picked a weaker target -> me
-Rolf ignore suki's case
Both rolf and suki was convinced they got the scums in their opening case, but was easily swayed when they get little to no support.
-Rolf toned down a lot when he sees no support
Rolf's case gain more popularity.
Suki jumps on the bandwagon and proceed to vote me.
-Although this point is much weaker now consider that I provoked her
I question Rolf's quote
Yes, I did vote you, but you forget that votes are easily removable, and the fact that you had to write a sensationalist paragraph in red text rather then just poke through the obvious logical holes in my cases convince me that you have something to lose, whether it be scum, blue, or just poor play.
Scum slip? That statement does not benefit town at all, and it seems like you were testing if I was "blue".
Suki seems very sloopy. In the first case she bought up, it seems like she was convinced. Rolf share similar traits, however was less obvious.
Summary:
1-Suki and Rolf is working together
2-Rolf avoided commenting on suki's case
3-Rolf took suki out of the spotlight, or at least, brought another person into it
4-Rolf can be seen to be scum hunting
5-Suki and Rolf confidently brought a case, and is easily swayed when they get no support. (staying out of the spotlight much?)
6-Suki hops on the bandwagon
All in all, suki seemed more scummy than rolf. Rolf has understandable reason to suspect me, but suki start off with a bad case, followed by bandwagoning me to for a lynch.
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EDIT:
Summary:
1-Suki and Rolf is working together
2-Rolf avoided commenting on suki's case
3-Rolf took suki out of the spotlight, or at least, brought another person into it
4-Rolf can be seen to be scumblue hunting
5-Suki and Rolf confidently brought a case, and is easily swayed when they get no support. (staying out of the spotlight much?)
6-Suki hops on the bandwagon
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I wasn't aware I am the #1 candidate for lynching until I refreshed, and by changing game plan mid-way it is going to pretty much generate more controversy. I believe scums could be trying to band-wagon into pushing me for a lynch, both of my reads were trying to get me. I also believe townies will generally be hesitate to vote, especially during day 1 where they have zero reliable facts while scums knows who exactly is what.
My final vote would be:
##vote suki
This is based on the reason given above.
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gimme 20 minutes alan113 i have big post half written. would be good to get your opinion. i see your suspicion on suki, but i dont want everything to devolve to shit-flinging between you and suki day one.
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I apologize if i stray from the format i laid out previously
Summary of Day One - My Perspective.
I see early on a bandwagon forming on Alan113, initially ROLF (i like how this nickname has cropped up) argument has a little basis but is quickly disputed and resolved by the group. Alan113 is now hard-tunneled by suki for the rest of the day. I'm finding this the most frustrating day one tunnel i've seen, i was indecisive regarding suki and then i saw her most recent posts and hoped to god she looked at something other than Alan113. But her argument against Alan113 here is essentially saying that he is mafia because he is defending himself. I'm finding it hard to see how Alan113 can do anything but defend himself up until this point.
I'm sitting here at my laptop and i honestly am 50-50 on Suki. I like your writing style and you can word your insights well and you have been aggressive from the get go. These are all very useful traits in day one. Tunnelling Alan113, where i can't see a small case against him, however is a big cross against your name for me.
Notable Events Day One - My Opinion
Suki's barrage on Alan113 and her flash in the pan vote on Trackd00r.
RAWFL's pushover regarding Crossfire's passing comment about changing votes. (could his following #fos be a response to a scum-slip vote-pull to then posture as a hardline-aggressive-townie?)
My People! - The Presets. (Queue this track for dramatic effect.)
Crossfire99 - i'm agreeing with what he's said about being careful with your votes. I personally think the #FOS should be used a bit more. With his posts though i would like a little more player-read-relevant posts towards the end of this day =]
Sciberbia - i know its a little dangerous for me to be using these terms early on (or at all) but i'm getting a good vibe from sciberbia. I read a pseudo-leadership role coming from him. His argument and opinions are tending to align themselves with me well.
HeavonEarth - sorry for being afk bro. hopefully some of this analysis clears me off your radar.
Reluctant to vote on
suki or alan113 at the current time, because i honestly feel like theyre clashing for the wrong reasons.
i'd be more inclined to lynch suki just because of the tunneling, however i dont feel a Mafia would be so aggressive day one (MAAAASSIVE RISK, but risk = reward?).
Suspicion???
i'm looking at MJ and austinmcc at the moment. I know its a bit rich for me to be pointing the finger at anyone for lurking. However i just dont like what i'm reading, especially MJ. The early gentle push on Miltonkram was a bit off. Considering it was a joke! I may make a case on MJ in the coming hours.
On June 14 2012 10:07 s0Lstice wrote:
Mouldy Jeb
There isn't really much of a case here. I went and looked at the Magic:The Gathering mafia, and his style is very similar. His style is dangerous, because it's near impossible to read. There is something to go on with his treatment of rofflwaffles, but that's it. Frankly, I hate the idea of him being around late game.
#FOS Mouldy Jeb
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Ok I've been thinking pretty hard since work and there are three players I would feel good about lynching: Crossfire, HeavOnEarth and MJ.
Mouldy Jeb
I've looked back over his posts as well as his play in the MTG mafia game. A lot of the reason people aren't sure on him is because his current behavior fits in with his previous town meta. I say this is crap and we need to rethink his play. His very last post in the MTG game was this. so am i actually, overall this has been a learning experience
So he used that learning experience to... post the exact same way? This doesn't make sense to me. His last post in that game indicates a desire to improve. If his current play in this game shows anything it's that he hasn't. I'd expect to see some change in his behavior or approach to the game, but I just don't see it from that game to this one. I'd imagine his reaction to getting a scum PM was something like this, "Well I have a pretty good meta to blend in with, might as well use it."
HeavOnEarth
I was checking on the game at work + Show Spoiler +even though I'm not supposed to ... heh heh heh was sort of waiting for MJ to post something after he was like hurr durr ima post soon. i took a look at his previous game though and his posts seem consistent from when he was townie. hes really not helping at all, and definitely still looks scum, but it feels like poor town play rather than mafia.
as for golden im still undecided since he hasnt posted anything what the fuck -_-. why sign up if ur not gonna fucking play
but i guess i doubt hes mafia, i would've expected at least a simple reply to my accusations if he was mafia by now. but it seems he just doesnt give a fuck
@_@ idk. kinda confused at this point
This just seems like an excuse for a lack of activity. He explains that he's waiting on MJ even though there's plenty of other things going on in the thread. He's also frustrated by one lurker (Golden) even though he's played Mafia before and knows that lurking usually happens in every game. The confused tone is what really gets me. I feel like town would push through the confusion and post reads no matter what. His "confusion" looks like an excuse not to post to me.
Crossefire99
His play has already been outlined by sciberbia, so I won't expand on it too much. I'm also really suspicious at the timing of his disappearance from the thread. He hasn't posted since his defense against s0Lstice's probing pressure. It seems like the perfect time to go lurkey if he's scum. He just made his post and then could have hoped that his defense would be enough to keep himself out of further discussion. Obviously it hasn't, but I can definitely see scum motivation in his decision to go silent at the time that he did.
Just to sum up, I feel pretty confident in a lynch of any of these three players. I'll gladly put my vote behind any of them.
In regards to suki, I'm really on the fence about her. My opinion keeps flip-flopping as I read through her filter. I'm no longer confident in my suspicion of her. I liked parts of her defense and then her later pressure on alan, but there are parts I didn't like too. I'm withholding judgement until I have more time to think on her play.
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On June 14 2012 17:27 sciberbia wrote:
Yikes only 16 hours until the deadline and I'll be sleeping/working during most of that. I'm really tired and going to sleep now. Won't be super active again until about 1.5 hours before the deadline, but I'll try to keep up with the thread from work.
It is really important that everyone gives their opinions on lynch candidates. If you'd be happy to vote for someone, say so!
Personally, I'd like to vote for suki, crossfire, or HeavOnEarth. I have no read on MJ or golden. I would not like to lynch alan.
@Sciberbia.
I only glazed over the HeavonEarth issue when i was catching up on everything. I feel like a nob because i remember he had that attack at me and i never really addressed it. I don't like defensive voting per se but i'll form and post some opinions on him shortly.
Crossfire seems okay too me, i liked his posts. If he posted a few more like it, with about 40% more content (pulled a # out of my ass) on players and some reads/opinions on cases i'd be a happy chappy. Time will tell on this character.
about suki, well read above. I want to reserve judgement on both alan113 and suki until day two. I think a Mouldy Jeb lynch may be a little more productive.
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honestly i can't believe i missed sciberbia's case on Crossfire99. FML maybe i got the totally wrong read on him. Ima refresh my mind on HeavonEarth and Sciberbia and then post after i mull their feeds over a game of SOTIS. Talk soon lovers.
GauldenWahn
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@ GauldenWahn
I'm loving the nickname. It made me laugh
I'm off to bed guys, please contribute your opinions on the likely lynch candidates.
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@Sciberbia
in addition to what u said on crossfire, notice that he
1) only replies when called out. Every message he is replying to someone, not making his own points aside from his opening.
2) Every one of his posts feels like complete filler to me. he is trying to LOOK helpful, without actively contributing anything
+ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 02:06 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 02:00 roflwaffles55 wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 01:56 Crossfire99 wrote:Just woke up. I'll start with that only as a last resort will I be for lynching a lurker Day 1. If we can get some good scum hunting done Day 1 we will have a more productive lynch than just a random lurker. Now onto what has been happening. On the whole suki and trapdoor issue: + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 12:44 suki wrote:Is it just me or is trackd00r coming off as scummy already? Show nested quote +
If I understood correctly, it doesn't mean that I would stop any lynch that I didn't mention on my analysis. Just because I have a candidate for lynch, it doesn't imply that I discard any other possibility.
It's something related to common sense. If any other cases are convincing enough, I'll throw my vote there in the case I can't get a majority. In the other hand, if we end up like RNG lynching (which is a bad idea), any other poster that could be doing silly mistakes, or even a player practically saying ''hey guys, I'm mafia, lynch me'' that's when it goes against my mindset. Any possibility is valuable, but if there is something absurdly wrong, I'll call it, even if that means a no lynch.
This post screams to me that he's trying to be super cautious with his words, so that he'll have a safety net if/when he ever changes a vote or bandwagons on someone else. He throws out some 'obvious' examples of reasons of what wouldn't agree with him, and even mentions that he would follow through on a read, even if it that means a no lynch.BUT WAIT! Just ONE post previous to that he says this: Show nested quote +I won't accept a NO LYNCH unless I believe we may have a serious mislynch coming. ... Dude. You try to take a firm stance against something, and then you do the most scummy wishy-washy-ness thing ever the very next post. You're clearly informed about mafia as you brought up the idea of a day 1 RNG lynch, and being against a no lynch is not a difficult or complicated policy to hold. I feel that such a simple logical slip only happens if you're trying to play it safe and keep your options open. ##vote trackd00r I think suki was just being aggressive. I admit that I found trapdoor's response post to be weird, but then I realized that English is probably not his native language, so I reread it a few times. I don't see a contradiction in there, he is just explaining that he would try to stop a lynch that he really believed was on a townie. I'll give suki the benefit of the doubt on this case and say she is an over eager townie for now. On roflwaffle and alan: + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 22:28 roflwaffles55 wrote:I woke up this morning to the arguments made towards trackd00r, and while the arguments made against him weren't particularly convincing, his defense was a little bit lackluster as well. However, I would like to bring your attention to someone else that is acting quite scummy as it stands. Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 13:05 alan133 wrote:On June 13 2012 11:12 roflwaffles55 wrote:On June 13 2012 11:03 alan133 wrote:
Good morning everyone. Looks like the first thing I am going to do in the office is to play mafia on TL. I don't recognize anyone here since this is my first game, well except for s0Lsitce since he is in the game I read. That's my brief introduction, and habitually in the beginning of any game, GLHF.
I am new and am unsure how to proceed with the game, but my current strategy is to wait for more post to come. Currently I have no FoS. That also mean I do not trust anyone yet. What are your thoughts on what's been posted as of yet? On the inactive/lurkers lynch + Show Spoiler +
I believe inactive players/lurkers are generally anti-town/bad town play in any mafia game, so lynching them isn't a bad idea (Since I believe d1 lynch is good, refer below), if there aren't better candidates of course.
On the day 1 lynch/no lynch + Show Spoiler +
I agree on lynching day 1 based on my experience with other mafia games (outside TL) with similar setup. By reading other games on TL I also notice the current meta game is to lynch when there are more players, as it gives townies clues.
I am off to lunch, will be commenting on my thoughts later as I see some interesting posts/votes already. His first post puts him on the bandwagon with his opinion on the inactives and lurkers, and is generally a contentless post with little to no controversy. Otherwise, nothing to bring the spotlight to him at all. While this is not by any means evidence of scummy play, there comes to attention the next post he makes. Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 15:40 alan133 wrote:My thoughts on suki's case: + Show Spoiler +Any possibility is valuable, but if there is something absurdly wrong, I'll call it, even if that means a no lynch. I won't accept a NO LYNCH unless I believe we may have a serious mislynch coming. I started writing before I refresh and saw s0lstice's post. As he already pointed it out, there are no contradictions between the two statements. trackd00r merely states that NL is bad unless it is a "serious" mislynch in both highlighted sentence. If I am missing something, please correct me. Also, Miltonkram: + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 10:35 Miltonkram wrote:
Hey all, glad to see we've got a bit of activity already.
In NMM XV we actually had a decent discussion about no-lynches (involving me making a fool of myself) and how they can actually be beneficial in certain setups. That being said, we don't know for certain if we'll have any modkills so we should leave no-lynches off the table until we hit the unlikely scenario that a no-lynch is beneficial for the town.
Town, the best way to contribute is just to get posting. Let everyone know what your thoughts are. Did someone post something suspicious? Let us know about it. Do you think the town is making a bad move? Let us know about it. If a townie lurks he/she is letting down his/her entire team. So don't do it, K? I'm sooooooooper serious. Like sooooper, soooooooooooper serious.
Hey sciberbia, remember this
##Vote: sciberbia
...heh heh heh
Is it me or you are not actually + Show Spoiler +soooooooooooooooooper serious ? I personally think (well played) townies are not the ones that bluffs around, let alone voting someone without any reason at all? Generally, fooling around, to me, is anti-town/ bad town play. My current opinion + Show Spoiler +FMPOV, suki's case was most probably based on a misunderstanding, but (s)he could very well did it intentionally hoping for a bandwagon leading to a mislynch. Note that I am merely listing the possibilities, I do not FoS anyone yet, which can also mean that I do not trust anyone yet. This is the post that really got me wondering. How by now can you have no suspicions? There has been quite a few suspicious decisions by several people, giving you more then enough time to form a case against someone, or at least apply some pressure. His statement about trackd00r comes after s0lstice, leaving his opinion tied to a fairly influential player and just reiterating what s0lstice said with no additional evidence or opinionated comments. Again, seeming like he's contributing without actually bringing anything to the table. He throws around some suspicion towards Miltonkram, however not enough to constitute a case or apply any pressure, just enough to make people go filter milton and consider what he might have done, which yet again, leaves him out of the spotlight. The last statement he makes in this post is the most suspicious and the largest tell of his indecision and lack of real input. He restates his opinion that suki's case is a misunderstanding, again, nothing of value. He then continues to explain that he has no FoS and that he doesn't trust anyone, leaving his options open, and having no real contrary opinions. His current play is anti-town at best, as he hasn't brought any of his thoughts to the table, and has only left ambiguous and bandwagoning answers to keep attention on those with controversial opinions. I think roflwaffle is jumping a little too hard on alan here. It is like 1/3 of the way through Day 1. We are not going to have a lot to work with and consequently we aren't going to really know what to think of people until we get more information. Therefore, I feel alan is playing smartly by not rushing to find every little thing that might possibly be suspicious and throw a vote on someone because of it. On Milton: He was just joking around. If he doesn't stop then I'll start getting suspicious of him. As for my current thoughts: The bolded part of this post by austin makes me suspicious of him. + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 22:23 austinmcc wrote:
I don't read those posts as contradictory, believe the second one clarifies the first and explains that, while he'd consider a NL, the standard is higher than "Town is lynching someone that isn't one of my top couple reads."
That said, even if the two statements are entirely contradictory, I don't really see anything scummy in that. More inclined to see contradictions concerning votes and reads as scummy, where someone has stated one thing but then has to take a party line, rather than super early statements concerning a no lynch. There's no agenda to push on that issue. Two completely contradictory statements without reasoning for the change is very suspicious. This is a good way to catch scum. They know the alignment of every person, so they have to make cases that they know are wrong (excluding bussing). This can lead to contradictory posts to make them better fit in with the current town mindset. Austin, why don't you think that contradictory statements are suspicious? We need more information, and the only way to get that information is by pressuring people, scum starts with an information advantage and the faster we work to even that out, the better position we'll be in. I agree that we need more information and we get that from pressuring people, but we need to do that smartly. If too many people are throwing around minor accusations all the time, it just confuses the town and allows mafia to sit back and laugh. That is what happened in NMM XIII when I was mafia. Ask austin, he was in it too. On June 14 2012 03:38 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 02:45 s0Lstice wrote:
Crossfire99, what do you think of what I said about Mouldy Jeb?
Roflwaffles55, same question. Yeah Mouldy is acting really weird. He needs to get active to explain himself. Everything he has said so far lacks good reasoning. On June 14 2012 03:50 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 03:24 s0Lstice wrote:On June 14 2012 02:02 Crossfire99 wrote:
--snipped
Be careful roflwaffle, votes are only easily removable if you are around to remove them. You never know what might happen. Also, votes early on in the day cycle that don't really mean much followed by complete disappearance during a controversial lynch can be scum tactic to avoid making mistakes in a heated debate that occurs last minute.
What an odd thing to say. Your message boils down to: don't vote because you might not be around later, and when that happens you are going to look scummy. Discouraging voting for such an arbitrary reason looks kind of scummy. Also, this hall-monitor stuff is a comfortable way for scum to post and have it look like they are pro-town. I never said don't vote. I just said be careful about throwing your votes around willy-nilly under the premise that you are going to remove them later. I never even said don't do that. I just don't want someone sticking someone else with a vote for flimsy reasons that ends up sealing a lynch because they couldn't get back in time to change it. That was the entire point of those two sentences. As for the mention of the scum tactic, I'm just saying that sometimes scum can not take part in big discussions later in the day by voting early and then disappearing. I'm just trying to help roflwaffle, by trying to get him to think about taking his vote seriously and having good reasons for whatever he does. If no one holds anyone accountable mafia can just breeze on by.
3) notice his defensive, and meek tone; in addition to his low post count. he's obviously afraid to attract attention to himself
4) he was lurking for a LONGGG time before he finally decided to post . What u thought we all forgot about that?
As for golden i admit my analysis was pretty damn bad LOL , but he didn't really have any other posts for me to provoke him with, and i still feel its a strong play to accuse lurkers of being scummy, just to get them to talk. The way he went about replying though felt really odd to me. For example, i don't really care if you're taking a few mins to write up a post. Why tell me about it(unless you're about to be majority lynched or something). Just feels off.
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On Alan, since he seems to be the main topic of discussion:
Strongly dislike Suki's two early cases. Already discussed the trackdoor one, and that's long over. But the alan one looks flimsy as well. For all it's size, some of Suki's points are that:- He's defensive, with a quote that was him defending trackdoor, not himself
- He uses the color red to signify different things
- He spends a lot of time defending/justifying himself
- He throws out suspicions once he's told not doing so is anti-town
- He still wants to be neutral
None of that does anything for me. I know that's kind of giving the entire thing short shrift, but she's really stretching to find some of this stuff scummy.
Rofl's posts on him are equally unconvincing to me. He posts a case, admit it has holes because it's D1, drop your vote, then come back and seem to OMGUS alan for OMGUSing Rofl/Suki. To the extent you want independent opinions Rofls, I'm not reading alan as scummy at the moment. I think you guys are just accusing each other back and forth.
That said, I'll watch alan going forward. I DO hope he makes good on being less neutral and wishy-washy. I also hope he does so in a way that doesn't push his "conspiracy theory," because you've got 0 support for that right now. Wait a while before trying to tie together a team, because right now we need to find ONE scum. And when we do that, we'll have way more information to look for #2 and #3. Also, and it looks like you've started doing this, but please less spoilers. Hard to find statements from you and hard to read your posts when they're just big spoiler trees.
I'd like to see some original content from Suki apart from the cases. I see a lot of commenting on little things around the thread, I agree with this/disagree with that. I see the two big cases, which aren't convincing me at all. But I get a gut feeling that something is lacking there, something in between those types of activity, because it's easy to fill a filter with those two things, and posting a bunch of weak cases doesn't look good, it looks like you're trying to contribute and scumhunt but not really doing so. I'd rather see smaller, more concise original thoughts aimed at a player, but not trying to tie together everything they've done.
Most everyone else I need to keep reading to get a definite opinion on. However, I want to specifically address crossfire, looking at what everyone has said about him. Either we've got a good candidate, or we've got a guy who looks a little scummy and is going to get D1 steamrolled. At the very least, we need to be aware of what each person is contributing re: crossfire looking scummy.
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suki what do you think of lynching HeavOnEarth today?
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Personal thoughts on crossfire:
A LOT of us have been posting in the style of his first post, and I dislike it across the board (I think I've done it as well). Here are my thoughts on the things that have been happening, here is the one thing I would like to add. Can't quite put my finger on why, but it feels like an easy way to boost filters. Commentary on everything, add a single original thought so it doesn't look like just commentary on everything, and then whoosh! gone.
I don't love the "don't vote early" stuff, but don't hate it. He's got reasoning there, although I disagree with it. If we're worried about people who vote early and don't come back to change it, the alternative is people who don't vote and don't come back to vote. Both are problems. The problem with voting early and not returning ISN'T voting early, it's not returning, which causes problems no matter whether you've voted or not.
Other than that, there's nothing. A question to me, but no real accusation of scumminess. A comment that Mouldy Jeb is acting weird and lacks reasoning. Nothing else more of substance really.
As to others addressing him:
Sciberbia - I agree with his initial point, tbh I was surprised I didn't catch more flak for that statement. The bit on MJ doesn't do anything for me, it's not solid enough for me to base anything on, especially when Crossfire doesn't seem to actually have robust thoughts on MJ.
Milton - I will say that Crossfire was mafia in XIII and was pretty lurky, at least in the mid and later game. Will have to go back and look at his D1 from that game.
Golden - What do you like about Crossfire's posts, specifically?
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Let me go over my reads of the other players.
Crossfire99:
I spent a lot of time trying to figure out if he is scum or not. Looking into the filter of his two previous games, I found that his posting style is more or less the same.
In game 1, he rolls blue and lurks quite hard. He states out of game reasons for lurking, but he plays more or less non-commital, pointing out suspicious behavior but not really heavily pressuring anyone.
In game 2 as mafia, he starts out the game by doing two things. First, he posts a defense of a townie that had come under scrutiny. Second, he immediately starts pointing out errors in one particular person's posts. He actually tunnels this person for the entire Day 1 and only just fails to get him lynched. He survives for the whole game without really being under fire and mafia wins the game.
In this game I see a lot of policy talk, a lot of guidance talk, and hardly any pressure at all. I find it quite different from his previously successful mafia play. In addition, his helpful tone is quite present in the mafia QT from the previous game, which makes me feel more inclined to think he's actually trying to help, despite his posts not really pressuring or helping town much.
Basically, his meta has changed from his last scum game, and it's changed in a confusing way, and he isn't using the tactics that lead him to a win in the previous game. I'm waiting for more contributions from him before deciding whether I think he's scum or not.
About HeavOnEarth:
HeavOn's attack against Golden is weak, and his offhanded comment on MouldyJeb is simplistic. His points against Crossfire are thought out and straightforward.
While he has not taken a strong stance against anyone, he's also not been wishy washy. He's also kind of aggravating, mocking and provoking MJ and golden while waiting for their responses. He hasn't contributed much, especially in the way of the major cases of the day, which is a big point against him. I feel HeavOn isn't as suspicious as people are making him out to be, and am waiting for his response on topics such as me, alan113 and crossfire before making a decision.
@Austin
Since you seem to be awake now, can I hear your thoughts on who you think is suspicious? You haven't stated anything of the sort yet, despite writing a lot about the current cases. Since you dont like the cases presented, care to make one yourself?
I've already posted my opinions on MouldyJeb, so I think that about covers everyone interesting at the moment. Tonight I'll go over the filters of the people who I haven't touched on and see if I can find something.
Defense post incoming.. I wanna post this before I write the defense since they're two different topics.
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On June 14 2012 17:38 zelblade wrote:
Day 1 Votecount
Sciberbia
Miltokram
trackd00r
suki
alan133 (1)
roflwaffles55
suki
suki (1)
alan133
7 votes required to lynch. Remember that voting is mandotary.
Deadline is at 00:00 GMT (+00:00), which is approx 9 hours from now.
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Not explicit enough again.
I find you and crossfire mildly scummy. Wasn't just commenting on the lack of content from you apart from tiny musings and the big cases, that looks scummy to me. At the moment I don't plan on voting for you, because posts like the one I see above are more like what I found missing.
Crossfire's filter is nearly empty, and what's there isn't really pro-town. The only thing I read as helpful to town or pushing discussion forward that he's done is question me, and then not comment at all on my answer. Was it satisfactory? Does he find my explanation scummy? Did he find my scummy in the first place? A big post of nothing + 1 question that he never follows up on doesn't look good.
In all honesty, I'm feeling like, so far, we've done a bad job of drumming up discussion today and that's led to us not having a great D1 lynch target. Will try and figure out some way to change that.
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I'm confused why sciberbia would be so suspicious of me. Perhaps its bias from the previous game when I was mafia, but I don't feel I've been playing in a scummy way.
His points on my defense is basically that I was being non-transparent. Another way to look at it is I used the wrong wording and I'm more concerned about scumhunting than pursuing and discussing moot topics. In any case, my defense is what it is.
The part about looking bold is just WIFOM and not very helpful at this point.
In any case, only he and alan have thought I looked suspicious. Let me talk about alan.
His points against my case:
Summary
1. He's pro-actively defensive
I was tunneled by rolf, and I choose to confront it head on hoping it will clear myself.
By pro-actively defensive, I mean he was defensive before any accusations against him occured (by being extremely careful with his words). The point still stands.
2. Justifies his own actions instead of trying to make pro-town actions
How else am I going to defend myself other than justifying it? And you claimed I did not make "pro-town" actions. I beg to differ. I actively throw out all the possible motives. I believe later on day 2 when more solid facts are present (killing pattern/blue role have more ideas), we can rule out some of these motives to get a better picture. Right now, I am merely focusing on reading every player's patterns.
Yes, defend yourself. What I want to point out is that alan has spent a lot of effort defending himsef, but hasn't done anything pro-town following the defense. His only suspicions lie on rofl and me, both who have accused him. Where is the focus on reading 'every player's patterns'? You've only looked at two.
3. Defensive Aggression
You just repeated point 1.
No, this is different. This is being aggressive to defend yourself. You attacked the person who is attacking you, and it seems like you do it for the sake of defending yourself, by pointing out the attacker's own inconsistencies. This is not good scum hunting, this is a knee-jerk defensive reaction.
4. Inconsistency regarding a neutral/suspicion-throwing playstyle
If you are referring to the "red text mocked up case" I posted in defense of rolf's case by "proof by contradiction".
That seems like a very sensational and ultimately unhelpful way of defending yourself. The fact that you do it in an aggressive rather than logical tone makes me feel like you wanted to get the heat off yourself as fast as possible.
5. Attacks the two most controversial posters with a questionable theory for townies to think of that he just kind of throws out there.
How is rolf controversial? Also, I don't find my theory "questionable". I merely listed what happened. Please provide clear "questions" instead of vague accusation.
rofl was controversial because his case against you was weak, and he was also getting questioned for backing off quickly. Your theory on me and rofl is questionable, because it feels like you're stretching to make some connections between the two people who are on your case the hardest.
6. Still no solid reads, analysis or suspicions despite (kind of??) conceding that not throwing out suspicions is anti-town.
Throwing random "solid reads" without proofs or substantial supporting reason is just as well as filler. I did not throw "solid reads", instead I posted the possibilities, which because of (refer to reply to #2), I think it is not scummy or even anti-town.
What I was focusing on was the fact that besides what you have wrote on me and rofl, you have not done any analysis at all on anyone else. You hide behind this excuse that you want to be neutral, but your posts have not been at all helpful to scumhunting.
Let me reiterate the key points of my case on alan:
1. It's not that he is defensive. It's the way he's being defensive. He was extremely conscious of misinterpretations of his words in the beginning. He attacks his attackers. Despite feeling that throwing suspicions around was bad town play, he threw suspicions at roflwaffle to prove his towniness. I don't buy that his response was 'proof by contradiction', the tone is completely off.
2. He is inconsistent. He states that he doesn't like throwing out suspicions, that he thinks neutral play by town isn't bad for town. Yet he throws suspicions at those attacking him, and he continues to work with this idea that rofl and I are working together as a mafia ploy. Is that really the most suspicious part of this entire thread, are roflwaffle and me really the most suspicious people out of everyone else? I highly highly doubt it. He is inconsistent because he doesn't like throwing out suspicions (his reasoning for not commenting on anyone else it seems), yet he freely throws suspicions at his attackers.
In addition, Alan's suspicions on rofl and I have more been about finding a way to make our play scummy, rather than pointing out scum motivations and tells.
3. He still hasn't done any analysis on any other players.
Why? Has it not been made clear to you that your opinions are needed? Let me say it clearly: What are your opinions on everyone else? Do something productive for the town for once.
And everyone else, what do you think of my case? I really don't think it's flimsy at all.
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Ok I'm late for work :> . See you guys later.
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Some housekeeping stuff first..
I am removing alan133 from my scum list. The main thing that had me suspicious was his strong-arm defense, but everything following that has been fine. I like that he is holding himself accountable for his style, and I want to see what he can do when not under pressure.
austin and suki have commented on crossfire99, and I have to say I agree. I was planning on wrighting a post similar to what suki has done. The cogent point is that he has long bouts of inactivity when he is both scum and town. He should get the same level of suspicion that every lurker gets, but nothing special beyond that I feel. His filter right now is pretty garbagey, and hard to get a read on. I wouldn't be upset if we lynched him, but I think we can do better.
Here is better: HeavOnEarth. Nothing has happened to change my initial opinion on him for the better. In fact, him buddying up to sciberbia in his latest post makes him look worse. Go read my case if you missed it. I'm not the only one to see him as suspicious, so I think there is plenty of traction here.
##vote HeavOnEarth
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On June 15 2012 00:50 s0Lstice wrote:
Some housekeeping stuff first..
I am removing alan133 from my scum list. The main thing that had me suspicious was his strong-arm defense, but everything following that has been fine. I like that he is holding himself accountable for his style, and I want to see what he can do when not under pressure.
austin and suki have commented on crossfire99, and I have to say I agree. I was planning on wrighting a post similar to what suki has done. The cogent point is that he has long bouts of inactivity when he is both scum and town. He should get the same level of suspicion that every lurker gets, but nothing special beyond that I feel. His filter right now is pretty garbagey, and hard to get a read on. I wouldn't be upset if we lynched him, but I think we can do better.
Here is better: HeavOnEarth. Nothing has happened to change my initial opinion on him for the better. In fact, him buddying up to sciberbia in his latest post makes him look worse. Go read my case if you missed it. I'm not the only one to see him as suspicious, so I think there is plenty of traction here.
##vote HeavOnEarth
What exactly in alan133's play made you suddenly change your mind? He reworded his arguments and continued to attack the two people who are putting pressure on him. He still hasn't brought anything new to the table, except for try to expand on this conspiracy theory that he has running between me and suki. He improved his wording, and he says he changed his playstyle. However, all he did was become more aggressive towards me... and suki...
His play maintains relatively the same. It's increasingly suspicious, I got called out for changing my play when the public opinion seemed to want me to, and then he does the same thing.
I'll be posting my opinions on the rest of the cases brought against HeavOnEarth, Crossfire99 and suki shortly.
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Okay, so, we're really stagnating here. Got ... three votes? on three people. Not a lot of thread activity. I'm still looking mainly at Crossfire, a little at Suki. But this has to happen.
LURKERS AND BROKEN PROMISES
Crossfire - Crossfire has had a whopping 2 hours of activity this day cycle. Lurked, posted a few things in that time span, and now has not been back for 22 hours. We've got no reads from him, no response to the thread's suspicions of him, and that ain't good.
Trackdoor - 16-17 hours MIA. Could be sleep/job, but he was active at a lot of different points of the first half of D1. Hasn't commented on anything since Rofl's case on alan.
Mouldy Jeb - 22 hours MIA. Was active about 2 hours before this time and 2 hours after this time during the first real day of D1. Contributed some super shoddy reads, called out crossfire for lurking, and also gave us this:On June 14 2012 04:34 Mouldy Jeb wrote:
I just got back from work and ill read over some of the cases that have been raised and post my view on the situation shortly. Broken promise to contribute
Golden - Has 2 posts of substance + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 09:43 O.Golden_ne wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 09:25 austinmcc wrote:
-snip
I'm not looking to push lurkers early and stay on them for an entire day cycle, killing discussion, but they need to be considered and I'd rather be looking at them on earlier days than when we're close to/at LYLO/MYLO. agreed. NL is bad. Killing lurking is necessary. Lynching scum is great. Lets get the ball rolling and squeeze out the lurkers early so we can narrow things down later on. Looking forward to scumhunting, i'm happy with the deadline on this as its 10am for me in Aust, which means i'll be able to meet the deadlines for lynching in the mornings a little easier. I'll try my hardest this game to meet these deadlines and to contribute useful information rather than filler. Essentially i'm all for an agressive early game. I want to be able to establish some basic reads by the end of Day one, and if theres no-one who's appropriately scummy then we lynch a lurker. Golden On June 14 2012 19:18 O.Golden_ne wrote: I apologize if i stray from the format i laid out previouslySummary of Day One - My Perspective. I see early on a bandwagon forming on Alan113, initially ROLF (i like how this nickname has cropped up) argument has a little basis but is quickly disputed and resolved by the group. Alan113 is now hard-tunneled by suki for the rest of the day. I'm finding this the most frustrating day one tunnel i've seen, i was indecisive regarding suki and then i saw her most recent posts and hoped to god she looked at something other than Alan113. But her argument against Alan113 here is essentially saying that he is mafia because he is defending himself. I'm finding it hard to see how Alan113 can do anything but defend himself up until this point. I'm sitting here at my laptop and i honestly am 50-50 on Suki. I like your writing style and you can word your insights well and you have been aggressive from the get go. These are all very useful traits in day one. Tunnelling Alan113, where i can't see a small case against him, however is a big cross against your name for me. Notable Events Day One - My Opinion Suki's barrage on Alan113 and her flash in the pan vote on Trackd00r. RAWFL's pushover regarding Crossfire's passing comment about changing votes. (could his following #fos be a response to a scum-slip vote-pull to then posture as a hardline-aggressive-townie?) My People! - The Presets. ( Queue this track for dramatic effect.) Crossfire99 - i'm agreeing with what he's said about being careful with your votes. I personally think the #FOS should be used a bit more. With his posts though i would like a little more player-read-relevant posts towards the end of this day =] Sciberbia - i know its a little dangerous for me to be using these terms early on (or at all) but i'm getting a good vibe from sciberbia. I read a pseudo-leadership role coming from him. His argument and opinions are tending to align themselves with me well. HeavonEarth - sorry for being afk bro. hopefully some of this analysis clears me off your radar. Reluctant to vote onsuki or alan113 at the current time, because i honestly feel like theyre clashing for the wrong reasons. i'd be more inclined to lynch suki just because of the tunneling, however i dont feel a Mafia would be so aggressive day one (MAAAASSIVE RISK, but risk = reward?). Suspicion??? i'm looking at MJ and austinmcc at the moment. I know its a bit rich for me to be pointing the finger at anyone for lurking. However i just dont like what i'm reading, especially MJ. The early gentle push on Miltonkram was a bit off. Considering it was a joke! I may make a case on MJ in the coming hours. Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 10:07 s0Lstice wrote:
Mouldy Jeb
There isn't really much of a case here. I went and looked at the Magic:The Gathering mafia, and his style is very similar. His style is dangerous, because it's near impossible to read. There is something to go on with his treatment of rofflwaffles, but that's it. Frankly, I hate the idea of him being around late game.
#FOS Mouldy Jeb On June 14 2012 19:25 O.Golden_ne wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 17:27 sciberbia wrote:
Yikes only 16 hours until the deadline and I'll be sleeping/working during most of that. I'm really tired and going to sleep now. Won't be super active again until about 1.5 hours before the deadline, but I'll try to keep up with the thread from work.
It is really important that everyone gives their opinions on lynch candidates. If you'd be happy to vote for someone, say so!
Personally, I'd like to vote for suki, crossfire, or HeavOnEarth. I have no read on MJ or golden. I would not like to lynch alan. @Sciberbia. I only glazed over the HeavonEarth issue when i was catching up on everything. I feel like a nob because i remember he had that attack at me and i never really addressed it. I don't like defensive voting per se but i'll form and post some opinions on him shortly. Crossfire seems okay too me, i liked his posts. If he posted a few more like it, with about 40% more content (pulled a # out of my ass) on players and some reads/opinions on cases i'd be a happy chappy. Time will tell on this character. about suki, well read above. I want to reserve judgement on both alan113 and suki until day two. I think a Mouldy Jeb lynch may be a little more productive. On June 14 2012 19:31 O.Golden_ne wrote:
honestly i can't believe i missed sciberbia's case on Crossfire99. FML maybe i got the totally wrong read on him. Ima refresh my mind on HeavonEarth and Sciberbia and then post after i mull their feeds over a game of SOTIS. Talk soon lovers.
GauldenWahn On June 14 2012 19:31 O.Golden_ne wrote:
honestly i can't believe i missed sciberbia's case on Crossfire99. FML maybe i got the totally wrong read on him. Ima refresh my mind on HeavonEarth and Sciberbia and then post after i mull their feeds over a game of SOTIS. Talk soon lovers.
GauldenWahn
Broken promise to contribute
Honorable Mention - Sciberbia - You said you'd be away, but given the way this day is going so far we're going to need contributions when you return.
Where are you guys? Where are these promised posts? Golden, what about this - On June 13 2012 08:27 O.Golden_ne wrote:
I'll seriously try my hardest. If i fail this game, i'll give up for good. <3 ?
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I'm going to post as though all of these people are scum, and the impact they have a chance to make if they are left alive. I think it will give a different way of thinking about it.
Crossfire99
Sciberbia posted a convincing case on him already, and several people have posted tidbits on him, however, nobody has put the focus on him (partially my fault). Therefore, if he is in fact following the thread and trying slide under the radar of suspicion while we focus on alan133, suki, and HeavOnEarth, he is going to get away with it.
His play was very lackluster and never brought fresh reads to the table. Out of everyone, if he is scum, he seems to be one of the most dangerous to let live.
alan133
I've already tunneled the crap out of him, and his defenses have been drastic and overly reactionary. If he were left alive, I honestly think he could do a fair bit of damage as scum, just because he defends very well and seems to have people convinced as to his innocence.
HeavOnEarth
His play is quite suspicious and his accusations and suspicions lackluster at best. He could just as easily be an awful townie as scum.
Overall he's been fairly ineffectual, but if he's hiding behind a mask of confusion and bad reads, he could be an annoyance as scum later on.
suki
It would be self-serving of me to defend suki, as she took my case against alan133 and improved it, I believe in her case. But for the benefit of the doubt, let's assume she's scum. The strength or lack thereof (trapd00r case) of her cases imply that she's trying to lead the vote towards those that aren't scum.
If she is scum, she could be quite dangerous later on.
All of that theorizing on what they "could" do if they were scum being done...
I believe that the most lynchable potential scum right now would be Crossfire99. I understand that there are already votes on HeavOnEarth, but if he really is that incompetent at bringing cases to the table, as a scum, why would he try to post them? He is suspicious to me, but not as suspicious as Crossfire. Unless he responds to the accusations in a convincing and collected manner soon, I strongly believe that he should be lynched.
##vote Crossfire99
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Right now I would prefer a vote on Crossfire or Golden, either works.
Crossfire may tend to lurk, but he's been active for 2 hours this game and didn't contribute much, if anything, during those 2 hours.
1/2 golden's activity was promising some giant omnibus post, which he immediately began to apologize for because it didn't mention some of the more recent topics at all. He failed to make good on his promise to talk to us soon. I no longer wish to be his lover, don't know about the rest of you. Moreover:+ Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 09:43 O.Golden_ne wrote:
Lets get the ball rolling and squeeze out the lurkers early so we can narrow things down later on. Looking forward to scumhunting, i'm happy with the deadline on this as its 10am for me in Aust, which means i'll be able to meet the deadlines for lynching in the mornings a little easier.
I'll try my hardest this game to meet these deadlines and to contribute useful information rather than filler.
Essentially i'm all for an agressive early game. I want to be able to establish some basic reads by the end of Day one, and if theres no-one who's appropriately scummy then we lynch a lurker.
Golden No help rolling balls. No help squeezing lurkers. Not being aggressive at all. THESE are contradictions that stick out to me. Taking a pro-town position, doing so strongly, and then never following up on that, in fact, actively doing the things he said he was going to combat.
Solstice, as to heavonearth, I don't prefer him to other targets. I agree that him calling out Golden wasn't much of a case, but Golden's first post IS weak. On your second point about time, I read that post as him being confused because your post made it sound like the deadline was really, really close. The third point on his contradictory comments does look odd, but I don't want to lynch him off of that. Look at it this way - MJ got lynched in MTG because he looked scummy D1, yet he was townie. So his posts definitely looking scummy IS consistent with when he was townie, as stupid as that sounds.
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Oh shit, forgot about Mouldy Jeb.. obviously he's an easy lynch to make, and if we can't come to a majority then we should just get rid of him barring some legitimate posts on his part.
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Ok back to the game.
At this stage of the day, the 3 most suspicious players that I have in my list are Suki and Crossfire99 andO.Golden_ne. I'd like to push a lynch to any of them. I'll post analysis in a moment.
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On June 15 2012 02:24 roflwaffles55 wrote:
What exactly in alan133's play made you suddenly change your mind? He reworded his arguments and continued to attack the two people who are putting pressure on him. He still hasn't brought anything new to the table, except for try to expand on this conspiracy theory that he has running between me and suki. He improved his wording, and he says he changed his playstyle. However, all he did was become more aggressive towards me... and suki...
His play maintains relatively the same. It's increasingly suspicious, I got called out for changing my play when the public opinion seemed to want me to, and then he does the same thing.
If somebody considers outside information concerning their playstyle, recognizes its value, and makes changes, I consider it a good thing. Nobody should be tarred and feathered for changing their minds, provided they adequately explain their reasoning.
This is the rule of thumb by which I examine situations like these. In this situation, alan is accused for being neutral/passive. He recognizes the criticism, acknowledges it publicy, and begins making a change. This was the sequence of events..there is no contradiction here. Whether you like his reads or not, he DID double down on them and he DID pursue them more aggressively.
I don't like that we haven't seen much outside of OMGUS from him in regards to scumhunting.
I don't like that he uses connection reasoning in his reads.
These are the knocks against him as I see it. Does this make him scum? I say no. I've seen a number of examples where two people OMGUS eachother for most of the game and both end up being town. It's extremely common for town newbies to fall victim to the OMGUS bug. They know that they are town, and when they are accused they are only one bad logic step away from accusing their accuser.
Bottom line is, the evidence against him currently doesn't paint him as firmly scummy. The main arguments (assuming I caught them all on my re-read) are neutrality, accusing his accusers, and his knee-jerk defense, correct? There is definite newb townie motivation for all of these.
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I'm just going to go down the thread and respond to people who have questions or suspicions addressed to me. Let me know if I miss your particular post.
First up Austin:
+ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 03:37 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 01:56 Crossfire99 wrote:As for my current thoughts: The bolded part of this post by austin makes me suspicious of him. + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 22:23 austinmcc wrote:
I don't read those posts as contradictory, believe the second one clarifies the first and explains that, while he'd consider a NL, the standard is higher than "Town is lynching someone that isn't one of my top couple reads."
That said, even if the two statements are entirely contradictory, I don't really see anything scummy in that. More inclined to see contradictions concerning votes and reads as scummy, where someone has stated one thing but then has to take a party line, rather than super early statements concerning a no lynch. There's no agenda to push on that issue. Two completely contradictory statements without reasoning for the change is very suspicious. This is a good way to catch scum. They know the alignment of every person, so they have to make cases that they know are wrong (excluding bussing). This can lead to contradictory posts to make them better fit in with the current town mindset. Austin, why don't you think that contradictory statements are suspicious? They can be, depending on what they concern, and when they occur. See the italicized above, although I should have more explicitly qualified the bolded bit. If someone had barged into the thread yesterday saying "I love no lynches" and then "I hate no lynches" in the very next post, that's not scummy to me. There's no debate here (nobody is proposing we NL), it's not important at this time (start of day, no NL proposal). There's no scummy reason to swap between those two statements on that particular topic at this particular time.
Thanks for qualifying your statement. I was confused why said it, but now I understand what you meant. I definitely agree with your italicized statement. Differences in voting behavior and reads are very important in finding scum.
Next up Milton:
+ Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 08:05 Miltonkram wrote:
@ roflwaffles
Ok, I see what you're saying. I thought you were completely backing off of alan even though you've made a decent case against him. I still don't like the fact that you took your vote off of him based on a wrist-slap from Crossfire, but I guess I misunderstood your intent. Since you're still pursuing your case on alan the unvote seems less scummy.
As far as alan133 is concerned I think you may have something. He's put very little pressure on anyone. When he does pressure he seems wishy-washy as hell.
Top two scumreads as of this moment: Mouldy Jeb and alan133.
@Crossfire, Golden, and HeavOnEarth
What do you think of these two players and the cases against them? Are there any scummy players you think we're missing? We need more activity out of you guys. Of the three of you, only heaven's put decent pressure on anyone and even that is difficult to take seriously because he hasn't followed up on his reads at all.
Mouldy: If I can read the time right on his post (hopefully I can lol), he hasn't posted in a day even though he promised a case when he came back from work yesterday. So far he's just thrown around baseless accusations and hasn't contributed. He needs to post.
Alan: I don't like his case on suki. I don't know how she has played in past games, but it seems like she is being open and contributing her own reads and putting in good work like going through my game history (props for doing that, I don't have time for that much research). I also don't like him trying to link people together so early. We know next to nothing so far. Don't make links between supposed "mafia" when no one has even flipped yet. Just find one person based on their scumminess and push to lynch them. This makes me feel a little suspicious of him.
Respone to sciberbia:
+ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 14:10 sciberbia wrote:As promised, here are my thoughts on crossfire and heavonEarth. crossfireThere isn't any one thing that looks super scummy, but nothing in his filter gives me a townie feel, and there are a handful of small things that suggest he is scum: his suspicions on austin + Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +The bolded part of this post by austin makes me suspicious of him. + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 22:23 austinmcc wrote:
I don't read those posts as contradictory, believe the second one clarifies the first and explains that, while he'd consider a NL, the standard is higher than "Town is lynching someone that isn't one of my top couple reads."
That said, even if the two statements are entirely contradictory, I don't really see anything scummy in that. More inclined to see contradictions concerning votes and reads as scummy, where someone has stated one thing but then has to take a party line, rather than super early statements concerning a no lynch. There's no agenda to push on that issue. Two completely contradictory statements without reasoning for the change is very suspicious. This is a good way to catch scum. They know the alignment of every person, so they have to make cases that they know are wrong (excluding bussing). This can lead to contradictory posts to make them better fit in with the current town mindset. Austin, why don't you think that contradictory statements are suspicious? This is exactly the kind of D1 case I would expect a scum to make. Austin makes the somewhat peculiar assertion that there is nothing scummy about contradicting yourself on policy during the early game. Whether or not you agree with this statement is irrelevant. The point is, what does a mafia Austin stand to gain by making a statement like this? Is he planning on contradicting himself later? No. It's very likely that he actually believes what he said so the fact that he said it isn't indicative of his alignment. I don't think Austin's statement is scummy at all. But, it is definitely a statement that a mafia could attack, because it seems illogical. It's easy to criticize. And that's what crossfire did. This is the kind of thing mafia do D1: attack people for seemingly illogical statements even though it isn't a scumtell. Like the mafia's attacks on Vivax from last game. his stance on Mouldy Jeb + Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 03:38 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 02:45 s0Lstice wrote:
Crossfire99, what do you think of what I said about Mouldy Jeb?
Roflwaffles55, same question. Yeah Mouldy is acting really weird. He needs to get active to explain himself. Everything he has said so far lacks good reasoning. s0Lstice, an influential player and good townie, calls Mouldy Jeb his #1 suspicion. s0Lstice then explicitly asks crossfire for an opinion on Mouldy. Crossfire does exactly what I would expect a mafia to do. Agrees with the influential player on his #1 scumread, reiterating what s0Lstice said. Mouldy Jeb would undoubtedly be an easy lynch today, and assuming that he is town, would take the pressure off mafia. And if crossfire is so suspicious of MJ, why didn't he say anything until s0Lstice prompted him? I grant that none of this is solid evidence and that a townie could plausibly act the same way, but crossfire's response is definitely consistent with mafia behavior. Otherwise is avoiding scumhunting + Show Spoiler +
Looking through the rest of his filter, he doesn't say much meaty stuff. In his first post, he rehashes a lot of what previous people had said. And after that, he talks a lot about policy issues such as when to vote and how to pressure people. Nothing too controversial in his entire filter.
Overall, I'd say crossfire looks a bit scummy.
Yeah I questioned Austin because I found that one sentence suspicious. Isn't that the whole point of this game: to ask questions about suspicious behavior, so they respond and then you can learn more about their alignment. (I also responded to him above)
Yeah I responded to solstice's question. There wasn't much original content that I could put forth at the time. I believe Mouldy had like 3 posts with little content, therefore I agreed with him because it made sense. Also, I had just woken up and responded to what were the hot topics at the moment and then started going through the thread and pointing out different things I saw and responding to questions like solstice's.
Also, sciberbia, you have a lot of expectations about how mafia should play. They can play any way they want. Don't assume that they will play a certain way. Ask austin about anacletus from our game. He had way too many thoughts about how mafia should play and I don't think my mafia team played the way he assumed we would at all.
Another one from Milton:
+ Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 19:21 Miltonkram wrote:
Ok I've been thinking pretty hard since work and there are three players I would feel good about lynching: Crossfire, HeavOnEarth and MJ.
Crossefire99
His play has already been outlined by sciberbia, so I won't expand on it too much. I'm also really suspicious at the timing of his disappearance from the thread. He hasn't posted since his defense against s0Lstice's probing pressure. It seems like the perfect time to go lurkey if he's scum. He just made his post and then could have hoped that his defense would be enough to keep himself out of further discussion. Obviously it hasn't, but I can definitely see scum motivation in his decision to go silent at the time that he did.
Just to sum up, I feel pretty confident in a lynch of any of these three players. I'll gladly put my vote behind any of them.
In regards to suki, I'm really on the fence about her. My opinion keeps flip-flopping as I read through her filter. I'm no longer confident in my suspicion of her. I liked parts of her defense and then her later pressure on alan, but there are parts I didn't like too. I'm withholding judgement until I have more time to think on her play.
I can't do anything about my posting times. I pop in, read some, and post when I have time. I can't make any promises about the exact times that this will be so...idk what else to say.
On to Suki:
+ Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 00:06 suki wrote:
Let me go over my reads of the other players.
Crossfire99:
I spent a lot of time trying to figure out if he is scum or not. Looking into the filter of his two previous games, I found that his posting style is more or less the same.
In game 1, he rolls blue and lurks quite hard. He states out of game reasons for lurking, but he plays more or less non-commital, pointing out suspicious behavior but not really heavily pressuring anyone.
In game 2 as mafia, he starts out the game by doing two things. First, he posts a defense of a townie that had come under scrutiny. Second, he immediately starts pointing out errors in one particular person's posts. He actually tunnels this person for the entire Day 1 and only just fails to get him lynched. He survives for the whole game without really being under fire and mafia wins the game.
In this game I see a lot of policy talk, a lot of guidance talk, and hardly any pressure at all. I find it quite different from his previously successful mafia play. In addition, his helpful tone is quite present in the mafia QT from the previous game, which makes me feel more inclined to think he's actually trying to help, despite his posts not really pressuring or helping town much.
Basically, his meta has changed from his last scum game, and it's changed in a confusing way, and he isn't using the tactics that lead him to a win in the previous game. I'm waiting for more contributions from him before deciding whether I think he's scum or not.
Impressive research. I hadn't even thought about my helpfulness until you pointed that out until. I'll let people make their own conclusions about this, so I'll leave it at that.
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On June 15 2012 02:44 roflwaffles55 wrote:
I'm going to post as though all of these people are scum, and the impact they have a chance to make if they are left alive. I think it will give a different way of thinking about it.
Crossfire99
Sciberbia posted a convincing case on him already, and several people have posted tidbits on him, however, nobody has put the focus on him (partially my fault). Therefore, if he is in fact following the thread and trying slide under the radar of suspicion while we focus on alan133, suki, and HeavOnEarth, he is going to get away with it.
His play was very lackluster and never brought fresh reads to the table. Out of everyone, if he is scum, he seems to be one of the most dangerous to let live.
I believe that the most lynchable potential scum right now would be Crossfire99. I understand that there are already votes on HeavOnEarth, but if he really is that incompetent at bringing cases to the table, as a scum, why would he try to post them? He is suspicious to me, but not as suspicious as Crossfire. Unless he responds to the accusations in a convincing and collected manner soon, I strongly believe that he should be lynched.
##vote Crossfire99
Let me know if I didn't respond enough for your liking. I'll be gone for a few hours and then I'll be back for the deadline to respond more and vote.
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On June 15 2012 02:47 austinmcc wrote:Right now I would prefer a vote on Crossfire or Golden, either works. Crossfire may tend to lurk, but he's been active for 2 hours this game and didn't contribute much, if anything, during those 2 hours. 1/2 golden's activity was promising some giant omnibus post, which he immediately began to apologize for because it didn't mention some of the more recent topics at all. He failed to make good on his promise to talk to us soon. I no longer wish to be his lover, don't know about the rest of you. Moreover: + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 09:43 O.Golden_ne wrote:
Lets get the ball rolling and squeeze out the lurkers early so we can narrow things down later on. Looking forward to scumhunting, i'm happy with the deadline on this as its 10am for me in Aust, which means i'll be able to meet the deadlines for lynching in the mornings a little easier.
I'll try my hardest this game to meet these deadlines and to contribute useful information rather than filler.
Essentially i'm all for an agressive early game. I want to be able to establish some basic reads by the end of Day one, and if theres no-one who's appropriately scummy then we lynch a lurker.
Golden No help rolling balls. No help squeezing lurkers. Not being aggressive at all. THESE are contradictions that stick out to me. Taking a pro-town position, doing so strongly, and then never following up on that, in fact, actively doing the things he said he was going to combat. Solstice, as to heavonearth, I don't prefer him to other targets. I agree that him calling out Golden wasn't much of a case, but Golden's first post IS weak. On your second point about time, I read that post as him being confused because your post made it sound like the deadline was really, really close. The third point on his contradictory comments does look odd, but I don't want to lynch him off of that. Look at it this way - MJ got lynched in MTG because he looked scummy D1, yet he was townie. So his posts definitely looking scummy IS consistent with when he was townie, as stupid as that sounds.
Go have a look at newb mini XIV. It may give you some insight on Golden. I built a huge case on him for day 2 based on many of the points you are making this game. He flipped town. I'm not saying he couldn't be scum, but I'm seeing similarities here.
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Crossfire99
I don't like the way he has been playing. The only things he has done is:
- Making a summary with the earliest events of the game, using the same thoughts that we have on rofl, and suki's cases.
- Accusing austinmcc for his views on contradictions.
- ''Helping'' Roflwaffle by telling him to unvote alan33 (defending alan?)
- Responding to s0ltice pressure and questions.
After that, he just disappeared from the radar. I dislike the way that he is just checking the thread. He hasn't brought anything new to the table. His ''pressure'' against austinmcc never continued. It was just something to add so he could show to us that he is contributing to the discussion.
There is nothing really to quote to show some evidence, since there isn't really anything implicit about this.
O.Golden_ne
Very similar to crossfire, but acts in a much scummier way.
* The way he says that he is working hard:
+ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 17:36 O.Golden_ne wrote:
Okay. Love it or hate it i haven't been too present thus fair. That being said i'm about to drop some knowledge on everyone. I'm just gonna post this little post structure so you know im working on it as we speak.
Summary of D1 to date (this is more for my benefit because i've been away and i find it a good method of developing insight into a situation.
Response regarding Alan, HeavonEarth and Suki situations (at a glance these names seem to be trending highly)
My reads and analysis
Any sexy tidbits and notable nuggets
this is going to be my most active time over the next few hours as i've got the night off and i'm in bed on my laptop!
see you on the otherside of a Wall of Text.
+ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 19:03 O.Golden_ne wrote:
gimme 20 minutes alan113 i have big post half written. would be good to get your opinion. i see your suspicion on suki, but i dont want everything to devolve to shit-flinging between you and suki day one.
Bragging to much IMO about his task of writing stuff. He states that he wants write a summary for himself. Dude, you are not playing alone, you have 8 any other people doing the same thing, and the only way is by working togheter.
I found his ''wall of text'', quite disappointing:
+ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 19:18 O.Golden_ne wrote: I apologize if i stray from the format i laid out previouslySummary of Day One - My Perspective. I see early on a bandwagon forming on Alan113, initially ROLF (i like how this nickname has cropped up) argument has a little basis but is quickly disputed and resolved by the group. Alan113 is now hard-tunneled by suki for the rest of the day. I'm finding this the most frustrating day one tunnel i've seen, i was indecisive regarding suki and then i saw her most recent posts and hoped to god she looked at something other than Alan113. But her argument against Alan113 here is essentially saying that he is mafia because he is defending himself. I'm finding it hard to see how Alan113 can do anything but defend himself up until this point. I'm sitting here at my laptop and i honestly am 50-50 on Suki. I like your writing style and you can word your insights well and you have been aggressive from the get go. These are all very useful traits in day one. Tunnelling Alan113, where i can't see a small case against him, however is a big cross against your name for me. Notable Events Day One - My OpinionSuki's barrage on Alan113 and her flash in the pan vote on Trackd00r. RAWFL's pushover regarding Crossfire's passing comment about changing votes. (could his following #fos be a response to a scum-slip vote-pull to then posture as a hardline-aggressive-townie?) My People! - The Presets. ( Queue this track for dramatic effect.) Crossfire99 - i'm agreeing with what he's said about being careful with your votes. I personally think the #FOS should be used a bit more. With his posts though i would like a little more player-read-relevant posts towards the end of this day =] Sciberbia - i know its a little dangerous for me to be using these terms early on (or at all) but i'm getting a good vibe from sciberbia. I read a pseudo-leadership role coming from him. His argument and opinions are tending to align themselves with me well. HeavonEarth - sorry for being afk bro. hopefully some of this analysis clears me off your radar. Reluctant to vote onsuki or alan113 at the current time, because i honestly feel like theyre clashing for the wrong reasons. i'd be more inclined to lynch suki just because of the tunneling, however i dont feel a Mafia would be so aggressive day one (MAAAASSIVE RISK, but risk = reward?). Suspicion??? i'm looking at MJ and austinmcc at the moment. I know its a bit rich for me to be pointing the finger at anyone for lurking. However i just dont like what i'm reading, especially MJ. The early gentle push on Miltonkram was a bit off. Considering it was a joke! I may make a case on MJ in the coming hours. Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 10:07 s0Lstice wrote:
Mouldy Jeb
There isn't really much of a case here. I went and looked at the Magic:The Gathering mafia, and his style is very similar. His style is dangerous, because it's near impossible to read. There is something to go on with his treatment of rofflwaffles, but that's it. Frankly, I hate the idea of him being around late game.
#FOS Mouldy Jeb
In some parts, where he clearly explains events, it's got the name of an opinion.
Finally to end all this post, he FOS'd MouldyJeb with NO reasoning or whatsoever. He even took s0lstice analysis to back up his descsion, instead of using his unique arguments.
Then it comes his opinion about Crossfire:
+ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 19:25 O.Golden_ne wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 17:27 sciberbia wrote:
Yikes only 16 hours until the deadline and I'll be sleeping/working during most of that. I'm really tired and going to sleep now. Won't be super active again until about 1.5 hours before the deadline, but I'll try to keep up with the thread from work.
It is really important that everyone gives their opinions on lynch candidates. If you'd be happy to vote for someone, say so!
Personally, I'd like to vote for suki, crossfire, or HeavOnEarth. I have no read on MJ or golden. I would not like to lynch alan. @Sciberbia. I only glazed over the HeavonEarth issue when i was catching up on everything. I feel like a nob because i remember he had that attack at me and i never really addressed it. I don't like defensive voting per se but i'll form and post some opinions on him shortly. Crossfire seems okay too me, i liked his posts. If he posted a few more like it, with about 40% more content (pulled a # out of my ass) on players and some reads/opinions on cases i'd be a happy chappy. Time will tell on this character. about suki, well read above. I want to reserve judgement on both alan113 and suki until day two. I think a Mouldy Jeb lynch may be a little more productive.
But then:
+ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 19:31 O.Golden_ne wrote:
honestly i can't believe i missed sciberbia's case on Crossfire99. FML maybe i got the totally wrong read on him. Ima refresh my mind on HeavonEarth and Sciberbia and then post after i mull their feeds over a game of SOTIS. Talk soon lovers.
GauldenWahn
Here, it clearly shows that his opinions are not more than a influence from other players. In just 6 minutes, CF passed from being okay for him, to ''omg might be suspicious''.
And, where is his case against MJ anyways?
In summary, Golden has been really inconsistent with his play The expectations I had from him are far from satisfactory, in function of what he has promised.
I'm at school right now so I can't post all that I have yet. I'll be back like just half an hour before lynch. I'll put my vote on Golden if I can't make it on time. If I can, i'll adapt what can be the most beneficial for town so we don't end with a NL.
##Vote: O.Golden_ne
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@austinmcc
Sorry but as I've said, I'm busy and won't be able to post much for the next few hours. The thread will have my full attention for the last hour and a half before the deadline, and I'll help organize the lynch.
@all
Crossfire has drawn suspicions of several people, and now he has finally posted both a substantial post and defense. Getting fresh opinions on him is important right now. Please share your opinion on him if you haven't already, and update your opinion if it has changed as a result of his defense.
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On June 15 2012 02:44 roflwaffles55 wrote:
I believe that the most lynchable potential scum right now would be Crossfire99. I understand that there are already votes on HeavOnEarth, but if he really is that incompetent at bringing cases to the table, as a scum, why would he try to post them? He is suspicious to me, but not as suspicious as Crossfire. Unless he responds to the accusations in a convincing and collected manner soon, I strongly believe that he should be lynched.
What? This is a really, really odd question. Your question assumes that he thinks of himself as incompetent, and actively tries to compensate for it. You clear him on this basis: a scum HeavOnEarth would look in the mirror and be like 'boy are you incompetent, don't go posting any cases now!', whereas a townie HeavOnEarth would be blissfully unaware of his incompetence and post as he sees fit. Furthermore, it's obvious scum are going to make an effort to accuse people, they have to appear town...
##FoS: rofflwaffles55
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Yeah i gotta run as well, taking my car in for maintenance. Golden looks like a solid lynch to me.
#vote O.Golden_ne
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@s0lstice
alan hasn't changed his playstyle. He's still maintaining neutrality on everyone except me and roflwaffle. He's clearly had time to hunt for suspicious behaviour of me and rofl. I don't like how he is hiding behind this 'neutrality' premise to avoid commenting on anyone he doesn't feel like.
I'm not OMGUSing him, I'm calling him out for not contributing to the town under the premise of 'neutrality'. I'm calling him out for failing to comment on any of the main players being discussed in the thread - HeavOnEarth, MouldyJeb, and Crossfire.
Yes, you could argue newb townie motivation for neutrality, accusing his accusers and knee-jerk defense, but shouldn't there also be motivation for contributing his thoughts on current topics?
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Yes he should be commenting on other cases Suki. If his behavior continues past day 1 it will increasingly trouble me.
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I see the current pressure are easing off from me. I also realize I has pretty much ignored everyone else except for rolf and suki.
@austinmcc
I thought spoilers are supposed to keep it neat and more readable, but apparently not, so I will avoid that from now. Edit: I unconsciously included spoilers tag where it was appropriate, hope you won't mind.
@Crossfire99
The majority seems to agree that Crossfire99 is one of the potential lynch target. I beg to differ. His posts was generally neutral, did not put pressure on anyone. I would like to say the case against Crossfire holds the same premise with the case rolf against me: not applying pressure while playing passively. The difference is Crossfire did not actively defend himself + Show Spoiler +. He is off my scum list for now, I would like to see him post more, as I believe posting more reveals yourself more, and that is giving more information to everyone. I see him employing similar policy for not jumping the gun.
Not under suspicion currently
@HeavOnEarth
His first few points seem disconnected. None of them relates to each other: From FoSing Golden for his opening post, + Show Spoiler +And I thought rofl@me and suki@trap was bad On June 14 2012 08:47 HeavOnEarth wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 08:38 s0Lstice wrote:
Just checking in guys. I'm going to make a post on my top scumreads in a few hours, as well as some errata. Lynch time is fast approaching and we really need to buckle down. ? lynch isn't for another 24 hours?
He also state that he is waiting for responses. Upon being debunked on Gold's read, he basically dismiss it similar the way suki has dismissed her case on trap, claiming they are trying to start conversation. In suki's case, this is still believable. Before her case there was no controversy, and very little to talk about. However, when Heave posted on Gold, there were already controversies + Show Spoiler + and he ignore them altogether. I interpret his motive is to lynch a lurker over an already presented scummy player, and this can hardly be town.
Very Suspicious
@Mouldy Jeb's
He echoed what I said, and came to the conclusion that it is dismiss-able without anything at all. Pure filler. The gut feeling about rofl is really weird. Look at this:
Rolf said:
Hey mouldyjeb, glad to see you posting! Do you have any other evidence or reasons beyond miltons lighthearted attitude at the beginning? State them if you do, as well as any suspicions against me! Don't keep them to yourself!
Also, what are your opinions on the cases so far, like mine against alan133 and suki's against trackd00r?
I ask these because that was a fairly lackluster post when it comes to your first of the game and id like you to bring some fresh opinions to the table.
nope roffle that was a gut feeling about you that why I stated I have no evidence
This is confusing as hell, and I don't think I want to read too much into it.
His other posts were also echoes of what other people have said. He seems to still have an issue with Milton's "joke" vote, but never pursue it without saying why. I am interested to see what his views are, which he promised will be post shortly.
Mildly suspicious
Can't believe I took 1 hours just to write all this down. I also did a filter check on s0Lstice since no body has suspect him, and I realize I was writing a lot of fillers, and my conclusion is indecisive-he currently looks town, so it is gone.
I refreshed and realize suki is still running her case upon me.
@Suki
Let me address your reiterated summary.
1. It's not that he is defensive. It's the way he's being defensive. He was extremely conscious of misinterpretations of his words in the beginning. He attacks his attackers. Despite feeling that throwing suspicions around was bad town play, he threw suspicions at roflwaffle to prove his towniness. I don't buy that his response was 'proof by contradiction', the tone is completely off.
I am playing this game seriously. I reason people won't don't spoils the game, and that is both bad town and bad scum play. I know carelessly written post may lead to many different interpretation. I am trying to avoid that while struggling with the language itself.
My first mocked-up case against rolf was indeed me attempting a "proof of contradiction", nothing more. Believing me or not is a subjective matter so I won't comment more than that. I do agree I did intensify my tone when I defend myself, I can't deny that, and if I am offer a chance to explain, I felt challenged.
Also, attacking head on is nothing but defensive. I brought the spotlight to myself, trying to be as transparent as possible, believing it will establish my innocent.
2. He is inconsistent. He states that he doesn't like throwing out suspicions, that he thinks neutral play by town isn't bad for town. Yet he throws suspicions at those attacking him, and he continues to work with this idea that rofl and I are working together as a mafia ploy. Is that really the most suspicious part of this entire thread, are roflwaffle and me really the most suspicious people out of everyone else? I highly highly doubt it. He is inconsistent because he doesn't like throwing out suspicions (his reasoning for not commenting on anyone else it seems), yet he freely throws suspicions at his attackers.
I did explained that I rethink on the "neutral" issue, and my conclusion is pressing someone is actually good. My second attack based on the theory is real.
My "conspiracy theory" was based on a plausible scenario, given what stands out more to me. I don't want to be biasly attacking my attackers, but it is also bias if I consciously avoid to voice out what I think is wrong just because my subject attacked me. I also included you as scum in my theory when you were defending me, did I not?. A more precise way to describe it is that "I attack those who deem suspecting to me, whether they are defending me or attacking me, they brought me the most attention" When I first mentioned the "theory", I was still being neutral, and I originally intended to list it out as a possibility.
Your bandwagoning on me also diverted my attention, with you and rolf focusing on me, I naturally re-focused on both of you.
In addition, Alan's suspicions on rofl and I have more been about finding a way to make our play scummy, rather than pointing out scum motivations and tells.
I stated my policy on coming out with the theory: finding group patterns. It strikes me as rolf was "defending" suki, suki later bandwagoned on rolf when he get more support. I did not want to make an excuse on "I am new", but I am still figuring out the meta-game, as I did with "being neutral"
3. He still hasn't done any analysis on any other players.
Why? Has it not been made clear to you that your opinions are needed? Let me say it clearly: What are your opinions on everyone else? Do something productive for the town for once.
Yes. Refer above, although time spending refuting your case could be used to look at other players. I also feel reluctant to give analysis after rolf's case, criticising me on repeating other people's point and has no opinion.
That took me another hour, thanks suki -.-
That said, I am willing to put down my theory for now due to this reason:
Suki's first "meh" post was not as bad as I initially thinks. I read + Show Spoiler +Day 1 doesn't truly begin until someone makes a 'meh' case against someone else with a few 'meh' points.
Of course, don't count this "theory" out yet, I am leaving it aside for Day 1.
Right now, I find Heav and MJ were the best lynch candidates, and HeavOnEarth appears to be more scummy
##unvote: Suki
##vote: HeavOnEarth
I am off to bed, it is 3 am right here. I will get up in 4 hours so we can get a successful lynch.
Another refresh reveals more post from crossfire. My opinion on him has not swayed.
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Also I'm still advocating, strongly, that we consolodate on HeavOnEarth. He has barely even taken the trouble to defend himself, and what he did post got quickly buried. I do not want to let him slip under the radar.
People who are on Crossfire99 should read his newest post and adjust accordingly. I feel we have a darn good chance at hitting scum on day 1 with HeavOnEarth.
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On June 15 2012 03:23 Crossfire99 wrote:I'm just going to go down the thread and respond to people who have questions or suspicions addressed to me. Let me know if I miss your particular post. First up Austin: + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 03:37 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 01:56 Crossfire99 wrote:As for my current thoughts: The bolded part of this post by austin makes me suspicious of him. + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 22:23 austinmcc wrote:
I don't read those posts as contradictory, believe the second one clarifies the first and explains that, while he'd consider a NL, the standard is higher than "Town is lynching someone that isn't one of my top couple reads."
That said, even if the two statements are entirely contradictory, I don't really see anything scummy in that. More inclined to see contradictions concerning votes and reads as scummy, where someone has stated one thing but then has to take a party line, rather than super early statements concerning a no lynch. There's no agenda to push on that issue. Two completely contradictory statements without reasoning for the change is very suspicious. This is a good way to catch scum. They know the alignment of every person, so they have to make cases that they know are wrong (excluding bussing). This can lead to contradictory posts to make them better fit in with the current town mindset. Austin, why don't you think that contradictory statements are suspicious? They can be, depending on what they concern, and when they occur. See the italicized above, although I should have more explicitly qualified the bolded bit. If someone had barged into the thread yesterday saying "I love no lynches" and then "I hate no lynches" in the very next post, that's not scummy to me. There's no debate here (nobody is proposing we NL), it's not important at this time (start of day, no NL proposal). There's no scummy reason to swap between those two statements on that particular topic at this particular time. Thanks for qualifying your statement. I was confused why said it, but now I understand what you meant. I definitely agree with your italicized statement. Differences in voting behavior and reads are very important in finding scum. Next up Milton: + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 08:05 Miltonkram wrote:
@ roflwaffles
Ok, I see what you're saying. I thought you were completely backing off of alan even though you've made a decent case against him. I still don't like the fact that you took your vote off of him based on a wrist-slap from Crossfire, but I guess I misunderstood your intent. Since you're still pursuing your case on alan the unvote seems less scummy.
As far as alan133 is concerned I think you may have something. He's put very little pressure on anyone. When he does pressure he seems wishy-washy as hell.
Top two scumreads as of this moment: Mouldy Jeb and alan133.
@Crossfire, Golden, and HeavOnEarth
What do you think of these two players and the cases against them? Are there any scummy players you think we're missing? We need more activity out of you guys. Of the three of you, only heaven's put decent pressure on anyone and even that is difficult to take seriously because he hasn't followed up on his reads at all. Mouldy: If I can read the time right on his post (hopefully I can lol), he hasn't posted in a day even though he promised a case when he came back from work yesterday. So far he's just thrown around baseless accusations and hasn't contributed. He needs to post. Alan: I don't like his case on suki. I don't know how she has played in past games, but it seems like she is being open and contributing her own reads and putting in good work like going through my game history (props for doing that, I don't have time for that much research). I also don't like him trying to link people together so early. We know next to nothing so far. Don't make links between supposed "mafia" when no one has even flipped yet. Just find one person based on their scumminess and push to lynch them. This makes me feel a little suspicious of him. Respone to sciberbia: + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 14:10 sciberbia wrote:As promised, here are my thoughts on crossfire and heavonEarth. crossfireThere isn't any one thing that looks super scummy, but nothing in his filter gives me a townie feel, and there are a handful of small things that suggest he is scum: his suspicions on austin + Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +The bolded part of this post by austin makes me suspicious of him. + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 22:23 austinmcc wrote:
I don't read those posts as contradictory, believe the second one clarifies the first and explains that, while he'd consider a NL, the standard is higher than "Town is lynching someone that isn't one of my top couple reads."
That said, even if the two statements are entirely contradictory, I don't really see anything scummy in that. More inclined to see contradictions concerning votes and reads as scummy, where someone has stated one thing but then has to take a party line, rather than super early statements concerning a no lynch. There's no agenda to push on that issue. Two completely contradictory statements without reasoning for the change is very suspicious. This is a good way to catch scum. They know the alignment of every person, so they have to make cases that they know are wrong (excluding bussing). This can lead to contradictory posts to make them better fit in with the current town mindset. Austin, why don't you think that contradictory statements are suspicious? This is exactly the kind of D1 case I would expect a scum to make. Austin makes the somewhat peculiar assertion that there is nothing scummy about contradicting yourself on policy during the early game. Whether or not you agree with this statement is irrelevant. The point is, what does a mafia Austin stand to gain by making a statement like this? Is he planning on contradicting himself later? No. It's very likely that he actually believes what he said so the fact that he said it isn't indicative of his alignment. I don't think Austin's statement is scummy at all. But, it is definitely a statement that a mafia could attack, because it seems illogical. It's easy to criticize. And that's what crossfire did. This is the kind of thing mafia do D1: attack people for seemingly illogical statements even though it isn't a scumtell. Like the mafia's attacks on Vivax from last game. his stance on Mouldy Jeb + Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 03:38 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 02:45 s0Lstice wrote:
Crossfire99, what do you think of what I said about Mouldy Jeb?
Roflwaffles55, same question. Yeah Mouldy is acting really weird. He needs to get active to explain himself. Everything he has said so far lacks good reasoning. s0Lstice, an influential player and good townie, calls Mouldy Jeb his #1 suspicion. s0Lstice then explicitly asks crossfire for an opinion on Mouldy. Crossfire does exactly what I would expect a mafia to do. Agrees with the influential player on his #1 scumread, reiterating what s0Lstice said. Mouldy Jeb would undoubtedly be an easy lynch today, and assuming that he is town, would take the pressure off mafia. And if crossfire is so suspicious of MJ, why didn't he say anything until s0Lstice prompted him? I grant that none of this is solid evidence and that a townie could plausibly act the same way, but crossfire's response is definitely consistent with mafia behavior. Otherwise is avoiding scumhunting + Show Spoiler +
Looking through the rest of his filter, he doesn't say much meaty stuff. In his first post, he rehashes a lot of what previous people had said. And after that, he talks a lot about policy issues such as when to vote and how to pressure people. Nothing too controversial in his entire filter.
Overall, I'd say crossfire looks a bit scummy. Yeah I questioned Austin because I found that one sentence suspicious. Isn't that the whole point of this game: to ask questions about suspicious behavior, so they respond and then you can learn more about their alignment. (I also responded to him above) Yeah I responded to solstice's question. There wasn't much original content that I could put forth at the time. I believe Mouldy had like 3 posts with little content, therefore I agreed with him because it made sense. Also, I had just woken up and responded to what were the hot topics at the moment and then started going through the thread and pointing out different things I saw and responding to questions like solstice's. Also, sciberbia, you have a lot of expectations about how mafia should play. They can play any way they want. Don't assume that they will play a certain way. Ask austin about anacletus from our game. He had way too many thoughts about how mafia should play and I don't think my mafia team played the way he assumed we would at all. Another one from Milton: + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 19:21 Miltonkram wrote:
Ok I've been thinking pretty hard since work and there are three players I would feel good about lynching: Crossfire, HeavOnEarth and MJ.
Crossefire99
His play has already been outlined by sciberbia, so I won't expand on it too much. I'm also really suspicious at the timing of his disappearance from the thread. He hasn't posted since his defense against s0Lstice's probing pressure. It seems like the perfect time to go lurkey if he's scum. He just made his post and then could have hoped that his defense would be enough to keep himself out of further discussion. Obviously it hasn't, but I can definitely see scum motivation in his decision to go silent at the time that he did.
Just to sum up, I feel pretty confident in a lynch of any of these three players. I'll gladly put my vote behind any of them.
In regards to suki, I'm really on the fence about her. My opinion keeps flip-flopping as I read through her filter. I'm no longer confident in my suspicion of her. I liked parts of her defense and then her later pressure on alan, but there are parts I didn't like too. I'm withholding judgement until I have more time to think on her play. I can't do anything about my posting times. I pop in, read some, and post when I have time. I can't make any promises about the exact times that this will be so...idk what else to say. On to Suki: + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 00:06 suki wrote:
Let me go over my reads of the other players.
Crossfire99:
I spent a lot of time trying to figure out if he is scum or not. Looking into the filter of his two previous games, I found that his posting style is more or less the same.
In game 1, he rolls blue and lurks quite hard. He states out of game reasons for lurking, but he plays more or less non-commital, pointing out suspicious behavior but not really heavily pressuring anyone.
In game 2 as mafia, he starts out the game by doing two things. First, he posts a defense of a townie that had come under scrutiny. Second, he immediately starts pointing out errors in one particular person's posts. He actually tunnels this person for the entire Day 1 and only just fails to get him lynched. He survives for the whole game without really being under fire and mafia wins the game.
In this game I see a lot of policy talk, a lot of guidance talk, and hardly any pressure at all. I find it quite different from his previously successful mafia play. In addition, his helpful tone is quite present in the mafia QT from the previous game, which makes me feel more inclined to think he's actually trying to help, despite his posts not really pressuring or helping town much.
Basically, his meta has changed from his last scum game, and it's changed in a confusing way, and he isn't using the tactics that lead him to a win in the previous game. I'm waiting for more contributions from him before deciding whether I think he's scum or not.
Impressive research. I hadn't even thought about my helpfulness until you pointed that out until. I'll let people make their own conclusions about this, so I'll leave it at that.
Your responses to s0lstice were clearly lacking, you said that you questioned austin on his sentence to extract some information, however you never actually followed up on your question. While that may have something to do with your posting schedule, it is still a problem. You can't expect to play the game and get away with posting no real cases and content without being lynched. As of yet, you still have not formed your own suspicions it seems, you're just giving your opinion on other people's suspicions.
The MJ question I'll let you off on because there's honestly nothing to talk about with him. As to s0lstice's third point, you never responded as to why you haven't been more actively scumhunting.
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EBWOP: soLstice is a dummy. consolodate=consolidate.
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On June 15 2012 03:32 s0Lstice wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2012 02:47 austinmcc wrote:Right now I would prefer a vote on Crossfire or Golden, either works. Crossfire may tend to lurk, but he's been active for 2 hours this game and didn't contribute much, if anything, during those 2 hours. 1/2 golden's activity was promising some giant omnibus post, which he immediately began to apologize for because it didn't mention some of the more recent topics at all. He failed to make good on his promise to talk to us soon. I no longer wish to be his lover, don't know about the rest of you. Moreover: + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 09:43 O.Golden_ne wrote:
Lets get the ball rolling and squeeze out the lurkers early so we can narrow things down later on. Looking forward to scumhunting, i'm happy with the deadline on this as its 10am for me in Aust, which means i'll be able to meet the deadlines for lynching in the mornings a little easier.
I'll try my hardest this game to meet these deadlines and to contribute useful information rather than filler.
Essentially i'm all for an agressive early game. I want to be able to establish some basic reads by the end of Day one, and if theres no-one who's appropriately scummy then we lynch a lurker.
Golden No help rolling balls. No help squeezing lurkers. Not being aggressive at all. THESE are contradictions that stick out to me. Taking a pro-town position, doing so strongly, and then never following up on that, in fact, actively doing the things he said he was going to combat. Solstice, as to heavonearth, I don't prefer him to other targets. I agree that him calling out Golden wasn't much of a case, but Golden's first post IS weak. On your second point about time, I read that post as him being confused because your post made it sound like the deadline was really, really close. The third point on his contradictory comments does look odd, but I don't want to lynch him off of that. Look at it this way - MJ got lynched in MTG because he looked scummy D1, yet he was townie. So his posts definitely looking scummy IS consistent with when he was townie, as stupid as that sounds. Go have a look at newb mini XIV. It may give you some insight on Golden. I built a huge case on him for day 2 based on many of the points you are making this game. He flipped town. I'm not saying he couldn't be scum, but I'm seeing similarities here.
I looked, and yes...it's freakishly similar. I'm reluctant to give someone a pass based on that, however:
- Granted he got replaced early in XV, but I don't remember him playing quite this same sort of game
- He played VERY different in XI (as town) (filter - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=331498&user=92568)
- He says he's really going to try and improve. That's some sort of...meta promise? Not just within game.
- I don't want to excuse scummy behavior as someone's meta. Just as a policy, especially going forward, it's easier for everyone if we take a hard stance against lurking/scummy behavior.
Catching up on the last page or so.
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EBWOP:
1. It's not that he is defensive. It's the way he's being defensive. He was extremely conscious of misinterpretations of his words in the beginning. He attacks his attackers. Despite feeling that throwing suspicions around was bad town play, he threw suspicions at roflwaffle to prove his towniness. I don't buy that his response was 'proof by contradiction', the tone is completely off.
I am playing this game seriously. I reason people WHO* don't PLAY SERIOUSLY* spoils the game, and that is both bad town and bad scum play. I know carelessly written post may lead to many different interpretation. I am trying to avoid that while struggling with the language itself.
My first mocked-up case against rolf was indeed me attempting a "proof of contradiction", nothing more. Believing me or not is a subjective matter so I won't comment more than that. I do agree I did intensify my tone when I defend myself, I can't deny that, and if I am offer a chance to explain, I felt challenged.
Also, attacking head on is NOT* defensive. I brought the spotlight to myself, trying to be as transparent as possible, believing it will establish my innocent.
Proof check after post -- Genius.
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Questions
Are we allowed to post after the deadline, 4:30 hours later?
Are we allowed to post during the night?
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Solstice, two things. I agree that HeavOnEarth does look bad after that last post. I'm also still worried about Golden, both for the reasons above and then reading over your comments on alan + Show Spoiler +On June 15 2012 03:14 s0Lstice wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2012 02:24 roflwaffles55 wrote:
What exactly in alan133's play made you suddenly change your mind? He reworded his arguments and continued to attack the two people who are putting pressure on him. He still hasn't brought anything new to the table, except for try to expand on this conspiracy theory that he has running between me and suki. He improved his wording, and he says he changed his playstyle. However, all he did was become more aggressive towards me... and suki...
His play maintains relatively the same. It's increasingly suspicious, I got called out for changing my play when the public opinion seemed to want me to, and then he does the same thing. If somebody considers outside information concerning their playstyle, recognizes its value, and makes changes, I consider it a good thing. Nobody should be tarred and feathered for changing their minds, provided they adequately explain their reasoning.
This is the rule of thumb by which I examine situations like these. In this situation, alan is accused for being neutral/passive. He recognizes the criticism, acknowledges it publicy, and begins making a change. This was the sequence of events..there is no contradiction here. Whether you like his reads or not, he DID double down on them and he DID pursue them more aggressively. On June 12 2012 20:55 marvellosity wrote:
I believe you were given a warning and not a game ban because you were apologetic last game, golden.
However you have been replaced in one game and modkilled in another, so it'd be nice to know you had the commitment to see this one through.
Crossfire responded to everyone. Not quite loving it, but that may be because last time I got aggressive with him, I accepted his defense and he later flipped scum. Gotta think and figure out how much that's clouding my vision here.
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@alan113
I am satisfied with the reads that alan's posted. He's clearly gone through people's filters and comes up with solid reads.
In addition, I find his defense of my latest attack on him convincing. His initial defense of my case had a few holes, and I pressed him hard for those feeling that it might have been a way to brush off those points without addressing them. He has went over my points and answered them clearly, and I feel more comfortable attributing those holes to english not being his first language.
My primary points of suspicion against alan (the key points after his rebuttal) were his method of defence, his inconsistency of play and his lack of commenting on other players. I can rule out being extra-careful of his words and using an overly aggressive tone as part of his difficulty with english. It also helps that he has not been pro-actively defensive or sensational in the newest post where he outlines his suspicions.
As for his inconsistency of play and not pointing out scum motivations, he has now posted cases on a lot of players.
I concede that given his most recent post, I no longer hold my case as valid.
As the vote deadline is getting close I want to put in my thoughts now rather than waiting for later. Please excuse me if I'm a bit rushed in my analysis as I don't have much time during the day.
s0lstice
i like his play. Solid reads, very little fluff. A strong air of confidence that was also present in the previous game we played together. He posts his reads with conviction.
Because of this, I have decided to give HeavOnEarth's filter another look.
HeavOnEarth:
Okay, something really really sticks out to me in Heavon's first post, and it's not about golden.
It's this particular line:
also id like to point out crossfire is completely inactive, whereas in past games he was a pretty talkative little townie.
thoughts?
Above, I posted my opinions on Crossfire, where I had gone through pretty much his entire filter in his two previous games, and the big thing I noted was that Crossfire LURKED very hard in his first game as blue, and somewhat lurked in the second game as red.
HeavOn clearly is talking about Crossfire's game as blue, 'He was a pretty talkative little townie'. This is clearly wrong.
He continues his case against Crossfire later after sciberbia brings it up. This has already been labelled as suspicious. It's a big point against him that he waited until someone else pointed fingers at Crossfire, when he had so early established a read on Crossfire - a fairly in depth read as he had even looked at Crossfire's filters from previous games.
The thing is, the case HeavOn makes against crossfire disregards the previous game filters. Crossfire, as mafia, was assertive actively pushed cases against other players. He also lurked quite a bit.
As for golden i admit my analysis was pretty damn bad LOL , but he didn't really have any other posts for me to provoke him with, and i still feel its a strong play to accuse lurkers of being scummy, just to get them to talk. The way he went about replying though felt really odd to me. For example, i don't really care if you're taking a few mins to write up a post. Why tell me about it(unless you're about to be majority lynched or something). Just feels off.
HeavOn votes for Golden despite saying that his case against Golden is weak. He doesn't back off however, stating that the response was scummy and that the scummy thing about it was how golden was commenting on the time it would take to make his posts? Seems like a very strained argument to make.
I see clear scum motivation in voting for golden. In my previous game as mafia, I harped on Miltonkram for his early vote against sciberbia. Even when my argument was convincingly rebutted, I continued to press my case against him finding any sort of scummy intent I could make up. Why? Because I didn't want to be wishy-washy.
HeavOn's case against golden is that golden 'just feels off'. This makes Golden a 'solid lynch' to him.
I'm out of time, but that's my insight into HeavOn. I feel that there can definitely be scum motivation behind his posts. I haven't had time to closely look at other people but for now HeavOn is clearly a scummier target than alan.
##unvote alan113
##vote HeavOnEarth
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Oops, slept in a bit later than I'd planned. s0Lstice, I'm inclined to agree with you. HeavOnEarth looks like the best lynch candidate.
Everybody, I'd suggest you take a look at him. His filter is not particularly long, but I think there is enough scummy behavior there to warrant a vote.
##Vote: HeavOnEarth
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I noticed already that his play was scummy, however I felt like it was the easy way out, I was hoping to nail a more influential scum D1, but I guess that's just new player optimism... If he flips scum, I'm not sure what kind of information we're going to gain from it as his posts don't seem to link him to anyone.. and if he flips town then all we really know is that he was a poor townie.
I'll go with the flow because he's fairly blatant with his scumminess (real word?) but I'd like to keep an eye on Crossfire, as well as keeping Mouldy Jeb in mind for a D2 lynch.
##unvote Crossfire99
##vote HeavOnEarth
I'm not sure if I'll be on tonight, I'll do my absolute best to be on in case there's a swing of opinion.
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Ok it's time we start consolidating lynch candidates. Right now it looks like people are interested in lynching Heaven,Crossfire, and maybe Golden. Am I correct? I think those are our realistic lynch candidates at this point. I'd suggest everyone limit their votes to these three players unless you think I'm overlooking something huge.
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@ Heaven
There are a lot of people jumping on your case really quickly. Not gonna lie, it's making me a little nervous. Please post some sort of defense or at the very least what kind of reads you have on players whenever you have the time.
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Milton, it SHOULD make you nervous. He looks scummy, but we've got 4 votes on him towards the end of the day, after he's announced that he's gone. I really don't like the italicized bit, because it makes him a very juice mislynch target given that there's been suspicion on him and he may not be back to respond.
Crossfire, going to hold you to this:On June 15 2012 03:28 Crossfire99 wrote:
Let me know if I didn't respond enough for your liking. I'll be gone for a few hours and then I'll be back for the deadline to respond more and vote.
You responded to all the concerns about you, but that was it. I'd like to see something proactive from you. When you vote, please give a decent explanation of whom you're voting for, more than just "He looks scummy/cases on him look good." I'd also like you to give a scum read outside of the current 3 candidates for lynch. Who else is suspicious to you?
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Looks like i'm going to have to do a little defence before the end of this day
I'm not really impressed with the case on me, if i get bussed off by the mafia and you see i flip scum i ask you consider HeavonEarth as a prime candidate or lynch. While i'm not happy with the case made against me (it doesn't really feel that solid) HeavonEarth jumps on the bandwagon very easily.
Bragging to much IMO about his task of writing stuff. He states that he wants write a summary for himself. Dude, you are not playing alone, you have 8 any other people doing the same thing, and the only way is by working togheter.
In response to my 'bragging' accusations, just LOL. I had a post all typed up after 2 hours of reading and writing. I was one of the first explaining why i feel Alan113 is innocent. And then i refresh and see he is still posting about the same subject, it was just frustrating because i don't like these guys tunnelling eachother. Can you not see that i was asking Alan113 to stick around to see that someone else in the thread thought he was innocent (alteast for now)? Or are my contributions not important?
NOW Austinmcc honestly its people like you that make me not want to play this game. In regards too my "BROKEN PROMISE TO CONTRIBUTE MORE". I fail to see where it is broken? I'm here; I'm contributing. Its damn frustrating when you commit a few hours of your life to something and then they just grill you for it. Losing a lot of motivation to play. The last few posts have been so cynical and sarcastic about my 'absence'. And i don't appreciate the whopping big red text. anyone can do it bro.
austinmcc is unimpressed with my contribution
perhaps i'm taking this a little too strong.
also, if we're too take a hard stance on lurking behaviour. Perhaps we can focus on someone with a smaller content count than myself? Worth a thought mang.
in regards to HeavonEarth.
In relation to my:
a) knowing i'm town.
b) Him trying to bus me one the grounds of "seems like a solid case".
c) lacklustre contribution and no rebuttle to any arguments.
i feel like he see's a bandwagon forming and jumps on straight away.
#VOTE: HeavonEarth
i still maintain a #FOS on MouldyJeb
i still owe the group a comment on Crossfire99 but i honestly dont have time for it before work.
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comments:
i like suki's approach to the situation, she's changed it up and she's added some new content to her vote which is refreshing. We'll obviously need to keep an eye on Alan113 just because everyone needs to be pressured several times during the course of the game, i just never found him to be as scummy as say HeavonEarth is looking atm.
SOOO much angleshooting from peoples previous performances in other games. Keep it relevant is all i'm saying.
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Lynch Candidates based on everyone's stated convictions
HeavOnEarth
interested in lynching(8): suki, me, s0lstice, roflwaffle, milton, alan, austin, golden
no comment(3): trackd00r, crossfire, MJ
Many people want to lynch him and nobody is actually defending him at the moment. There is much less consensus on the other candidates (see below).
Crossfire
interested in lynching(5): me, austin, trackd00r, milton, heavOnEarth
not convinced(4): s0lstice, golden, alan, suki
no comment(2): MJ, roflwaffles
Some people find him suspicious. Others remain unconvinced. I don't think it makes sense to lynch him over HeavOnEarth because some people actually don't find him suspicious.
Mouldy Jeb
The argument for lynching him is extreme lurking and unhelpfulness. I'm not against lynching lurkers if we don't have any good lynch candidates. But in this case we do: most people find HeavOnEarth scummy. In addition, we get little information from MJ's flip, whereas we get quite a bit from heavOnEarth.
golden
I haven't gone through the filter, but I just don't get the feeling that there is enough suspicion on him to warrant a lynch over HeavOnEarth.
IN SUMMARY
HeavOnEarth seems like the consensus lynch target. Personally, I think he has a good chance of flipping red. I'll detail my thoughts on him in a subsequent post. Overall, seems like the sensible player to lynch.
@heavOnEarth
It looks likely that you will be lynched today. Please post a defense and more importantly give as many reads as you can.
@trackd00r, crossfire, MJ
Please post your opinion on HeavOnEarth as soon as possible. It's important that everyone weighs in on the lynch candidates, especially the one that looks most likely to be lynched.
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On June 14 2012 19:31 O.Golden_ne wrote:
honestly i can't believe i missed sciberbia's case on Crossfire99. FML maybe i got the totally wrong read on him. Ima refresh my mind on HeavonEarth and Sciberbia and then post after i mull their feeds over a game of SOTIS. Talk soon lovers.
GauldenWahn
You were going to refresh your mind, mull 2 filters from D1, and talk soon. The broken promise to contribute would be not doing that.
On June 15 2012 06:27 O.Golden_ne wrote:
in regards to HeavonEarth.
In relation to my:
a) knowing i'm town.
b) Him trying to bus me one the grounds of "seems like a solid case".
c) lacklustre contribution and no rebuttle to any arguments.
i feel like he see's a bandwagon forming and jumps on straight away.
#VOTE: HeavonEarth
No read on crossfire. A couple minor thoughts on HeavOn. The frustration seems genuine, however.
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Yea the way the votes fell gives me a sinking feeling. I'm trying to remain optimistic, the way his case gained momentum would make bussing an option that scum would have to consider if he is indeed scum. Suspense is killing me.
Austin and suki had both asked me questions iirc. I'll answer those next time I get a chance after the flip.
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My thoughts on HeavOnEarth:
I was originally somewhat suspicious of him for throwing suspicion onto a handful of easy targets, and then becoming wishy/washy about it. He has since made me more suspicious with his response and attitude towards golden.
On June 14 2012 20:15 HeavOnEarth wrote:
As for golden i admit my analysis was pretty damn bad LOL , but he didn't really have any other posts for me to provoke him with, and i still feel its a strong play to accuse lurkers of being scummy, just to get them to talk. The way he went about replying though felt really odd to me. For example, i don't really care if you're taking a few mins to write up a post. Why tell me about it(unless you're about to be majority lynched or something). Just feels off.
First of all, he admits that his case was "pretty damn bad" and LOL's about it. I see this as slightly scummy. He is being ingratiating and agreeable, rather than firm, objective, and analytic. This is more typical of mafia than of townies.
Next HeavOnEarth says that there were no other posts to provoke Golden with. The question I'm left asking myself is: why did HeavOnEarth feel that he had to attack Golden at all? He says it was strong play of him to "accuse lurkers of being scummy", but at the time of HeavOnEarth's accusation, golden didn't look lurky. Golden made 1 post in the first 4 hours of the game, and then HeavOnEarth accused him. 1 decent-sized post in the first 4 hours isn't lurky. Why was HeavOnEarth looking for a reason to "provoke him"?
Finally, heavOnEarth refuses to back down from his suspicions of golden, and even ends up voting golden, but doesn't give any good reasons. He just says that golden's posting seems odd. Odd =/= scummy. It looks like he just arbitrarily picked a target to attack at the beginning and now won't back down.
Overall, I think he has a good chance of being mafia and I'm happy with lynching him.
##Vote HeavOnEarth
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1hour until deadline. On iPad because Internet is down in Copenhagen (wtf) so hopefully I'll get vote count right in this dumb ass safari piece of crap excuse of a browser. Yo.
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@miltonkram, @s0Lstice, @austinmcc
I'm not too disconcerted by the near unanimous voting. If HeavOnEarth is scum, there are only 2 more scum out of 11 other players. 3 players have yet to comment on HeavOnEarth at all, and there could quite possibly be some bussing going on. As s0Lstice said, scum could probably see the writing on the wall. Are you guys actually less suspicious of heavOnEarth due to the voting or are you just being pessimistic? How do the votes affect the likeliness that heavOnEarth is mafia in your eyes?
I want to reiterate some of the things I said earlier, because the thread has been relatively quiet in the last hour, and right now is a very important time for activity.
@heavOnEarth
You are very likely getting lynched today. Your posting right now can only help town. If you are townie and are looking at the thread, you should definitely be posting reads right now.
@trackd00r, crossfire, MJ
If any of you are in the thread right now, you should take the opportunity to state your opinion on heavOnEarth before he flips rather than after, in the interest of giving town more information.
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Yea it's just nerves pre-lynch nerves sciberbia. I have confidence in the strength of the read, but the bar was set pretty high (thanks to you and ange ) last game with the scum hit on day 1. I'm badly wanting a repeat, and I got mad jitters. Also I thought the deadline was 7EDT so FML with this suspense.
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Also, I count 7 votes on HeavOnEarth. though golden didn't format his properly so it may not count... thank goodness for only needing 6 votes.
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@ s0Lstice + sciberbia
I know about those pre-lynch jitters. It's part of why I play this game. Nothing quite gets to me like the time right before the deadline It's both glorious and agonizing.
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Heavonearth:
Sciberbia
O.golden_ne
Roflwaffles55
Miltonkram
Suki
Alan133
O.golden_ne:
Heavonearth
Trackd00r
Roflwaffles55:
S0lstice
Not voting:
Austinmcc
Crossfire99
Also voting is mandatory. Moldy jeb is being replaced by unforgiven_ve. 12 alive and it takes 6 to lynch.
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I think Heavon looks scummy. But his voting took off after he posted that he was going to be gone for auto repairs. And there's been very little pushback. I'm particularly worried by: (1) us going for the guy who basically said "Won't be around to defend myself," and (2) the lack of any pushback against him, when we had multiple targets recently. There could be some bussing going on, but we had a couple other juicy targets, and I wouldn't expect a bus in that situation. At the very least, my stance right now is that he doesn't look good, but the vast majority of the votes and comments on him seem to have occurred after he said he was leaving. I don't want to lynch him today based on that alone.
See your comment towards him. Yes, his reads would help town. Yes, he ought to defend himself. But he may actually have been gone these last few hours, and I want to see his response before I lynch him. If it looks bad, there's D2. I think I'm saying the same thing over and over, so I'll knock it off.
Apart from those basic statements, I'll note this. He DOES fit into a category of people trying to look like they're scumhunting but not. The 1 post suspicion of Golden, his comment on MJ -On June 14 2012 02:39 HeavOnEarth wrote:check out Mouldy Jeb's posts, and accusations Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 00:20 Mouldy Jeb wrote:
nope roffle that was a gut feeling about you that why I stated I have no evidence Why would someone try to direct suspicions with NO reasoning? his chiming in on crossfire - + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 20:15 HeavOnEarth wrote:@Sciberbia in addition to what u said on crossfire, notice that he 1) only replies when called out. Every message he is replying to someone, not making his own points aside from his opening. 2) Every one of his posts feels like complete filler to me. he is trying to LOOK helpful, without actively contributing anything + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 02:06 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 02:00 roflwaffles55 wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 01:56 Crossfire99 wrote:Just woke up. I'll start with that only as a last resort will I be for lynching a lurker Day 1. If we can get some good scum hunting done Day 1 we will have a more productive lynch than just a random lurker. Now onto what has been happening. On the whole suki and trapdoor issue: + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 12:44 suki wrote:Is it just me or is trackd00r coming off as scummy already? Show nested quote +
If I understood correctly, it doesn't mean that I would stop any lynch that I didn't mention on my analysis. Just because I have a candidate for lynch, it doesn't imply that I discard any other possibility.
It's something related to common sense. If any other cases are convincing enough, I'll throw my vote there in the case I can't get a majority. In the other hand, if we end up like RNG lynching (which is a bad idea), any other poster that could be doing silly mistakes, or even a player practically saying ''hey guys, I'm mafia, lynch me'' that's when it goes against my mindset. Any possibility is valuable, but if there is something absurdly wrong, I'll call it, even if that means a no lynch.
This post screams to me that he's trying to be super cautious with his words, so that he'll have a safety net if/when he ever changes a vote or bandwagons on someone else. He throws out some 'obvious' examples of reasons of what wouldn't agree with him, and even mentions that he would follow through on a read, even if it that means a no lynch.BUT WAIT! Just ONE post previous to that he says this: Show nested quote +I won't accept a NO LYNCH unless I believe we may have a serious mislynch coming. ... Dude. You try to take a firm stance against something, and then you do the most scummy wishy-washy-ness thing ever the very next post. You're clearly informed about mafia as you brought up the idea of a day 1 RNG lynch, and being against a no lynch is not a difficult or complicated policy to hold. I feel that such a simple logical slip only happens if you're trying to play it safe and keep your options open. ##vote trackd00r I think suki was just being aggressive. I admit that I found trapdoor's response post to be weird, but then I realized that English is probably not his native language, so I reread it a few times. I don't see a contradiction in there, he is just explaining that he would try to stop a lynch that he really believed was on a townie. I'll give suki the benefit of the doubt on this case and say she is an over eager townie for now. On roflwaffle and alan: + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 22:28 roflwaffles55 wrote:I woke up this morning to the arguments made towards trackd00r, and while the arguments made against him weren't particularly convincing, his defense was a little bit lackluster as well. However, I would like to bring your attention to someone else that is acting quite scummy as it stands. Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 13:05 alan133 wrote:On June 13 2012 11:12 roflwaffles55 wrote:On June 13 2012 11:03 alan133 wrote:
Good morning everyone. Looks like the first thing I am going to do in the office is to play mafia on TL. I don't recognize anyone here since this is my first game, well except for s0Lsitce since he is in the game I read. That's my brief introduction, and habitually in the beginning of any game, GLHF.
I am new and am unsure how to proceed with the game, but my current strategy is to wait for more post to come. Currently I have no FoS. That also mean I do not trust anyone yet. What are your thoughts on what's been posted as of yet? On the inactive/lurkers lynch + Show Spoiler +
I believe inactive players/lurkers are generally anti-town/bad town play in any mafia game, so lynching them isn't a bad idea (Since I believe d1 lynch is good, refer below), if there aren't better candidates of course.
On the day 1 lynch/no lynch + Show Spoiler +
I agree on lynching day 1 based on my experience with other mafia games (outside TL) with similar setup. By reading other games on TL I also notice the current meta game is to lynch when there are more players, as it gives townies clues.
I am off to lunch, will be commenting on my thoughts later as I see some interesting posts/votes already. His first post puts him on the bandwagon with his opinion on the inactives and lurkers, and is generally a contentless post with little to no controversy. Otherwise, nothing to bring the spotlight to him at all. While this is not by any means evidence of scummy play, there comes to attention the next post he makes. Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 15:40 alan133 wrote:My thoughts on suki's case: + Show Spoiler +Any possibility is valuable, but if there is something absurdly wrong, I'll call it, even if that means a no lynch. I won't accept a NO LYNCH unless I believe we may have a serious mislynch coming. I started writing before I refresh and saw s0lstice's post. As he already pointed it out, there are no contradictions between the two statements. trackd00r merely states that NL is bad unless it is a "serious" mislynch in both highlighted sentence. If I am missing something, please correct me. Also, Miltonkram: + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 10:35 Miltonkram wrote:
Hey all, glad to see we've got a bit of activity already.
In NMM XV we actually had a decent discussion about no-lynches (involving me making a fool of myself) and how they can actually be beneficial in certain setups. That being said, we don't know for certain if we'll have any modkills so we should leave no-lynches off the table until we hit the unlikely scenario that a no-lynch is beneficial for the town.
Town, the best way to contribute is just to get posting. Let everyone know what your thoughts are. Did someone post something suspicious? Let us know about it. Do you think the town is making a bad move? Let us know about it. If a townie lurks he/she is letting down his/her entire team. So don't do it, K? I'm sooooooooper serious. Like sooooper, soooooooooooper serious.
Hey sciberbia, remember this
##Vote: sciberbia
...heh heh heh
Is it me or you are not actually + Show Spoiler +soooooooooooooooooper serious ? I personally think (well played) townies are not the ones that bluffs around, let alone voting someone without any reason at all? Generally, fooling around, to me, is anti-town/ bad town play. My current opinion + Show Spoiler +FMPOV, suki's case was most probably based on a misunderstanding, but (s)he could very well did it intentionally hoping for a bandwagon leading to a mislynch. Note that I am merely listing the possibilities, I do not FoS anyone yet, which can also mean that I do not trust anyone yet. This is the post that really got me wondering. How by now can you have no suspicions? There has been quite a few suspicious decisions by several people, giving you more then enough time to form a case against someone, or at least apply some pressure. His statement about trackd00r comes after s0lstice, leaving his opinion tied to a fairly influential player and just reiterating what s0lstice said with no additional evidence or opinionated comments. Again, seeming like he's contributing without actually bringing anything to the table. He throws around some suspicion towards Miltonkram, however not enough to constitute a case or apply any pressure, just enough to make people go filter milton and consider what he might have done, which yet again, leaves him out of the spotlight. The last statement he makes in this post is the most suspicious and the largest tell of his indecision and lack of real input. He restates his opinion that suki's case is a misunderstanding, again, nothing of value. He then continues to explain that he has no FoS and that he doesn't trust anyone, leaving his options open, and having no real contrary opinions. His current play is anti-town at best, as he hasn't brought any of his thoughts to the table, and has only left ambiguous and bandwagoning answers to keep attention on those with controversial opinions. I think roflwaffle is jumping a little too hard on alan here. It is like 1/3 of the way through Day 1. We are not going to have a lot to work with and consequently we aren't going to really know what to think of people until we get more information. Therefore, I feel alan is playing smartly by not rushing to find every little thing that might possibly be suspicious and throw a vote on someone because of it. On Milton: He was just joking around. If he doesn't stop then I'll start getting suspicious of him. As for my current thoughts: The bolded part of this post by austin makes me suspicious of him. + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 22:23 austinmcc wrote:
I don't read those posts as contradictory, believe the second one clarifies the first and explains that, while he'd consider a NL, the standard is higher than "Town is lynching someone that isn't one of my top couple reads."
That said, even if the two statements are entirely contradictory, I don't really see anything scummy in that. More inclined to see contradictions concerning votes and reads as scummy, where someone has stated one thing but then has to take a party line, rather than super early statements concerning a no lynch. There's no agenda to push on that issue. Two completely contradictory statements without reasoning for the change is very suspicious. This is a good way to catch scum. They know the alignment of every person, so they have to make cases that they know are wrong (excluding bussing). This can lead to contradictory posts to make them better fit in with the current town mindset. Austin, why don't you think that contradictory statements are suspicious? We need more information, and the only way to get that information is by pressuring people, scum starts with an information advantage and the faster we work to even that out, the better position we'll be in. I agree that we need more information and we get that from pressuring people, but we need to do that smartly. If too many people are throwing around minor accusations all the time, it just confuses the town and allows mafia to sit back and laugh. That is what happened in NMM XIII when I was mafia. Ask austin, he was in it too. On June 14 2012 03:38 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 02:45 s0Lstice wrote:
Crossfire99, what do you think of what I said about Mouldy Jeb?
Roflwaffles55, same question. Yeah Mouldy is acting really weird. He needs to get active to explain himself. Everything he has said so far lacks good reasoning. On June 14 2012 03:50 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 03:24 s0Lstice wrote:On June 14 2012 02:02 Crossfire99 wrote:
--snipped
Be careful roflwaffle, votes are only easily removable if you are around to remove them. You never know what might happen. Also, votes early on in the day cycle that don't really mean much followed by complete disappearance during a controversial lynch can be scum tactic to avoid making mistakes in a heated debate that occurs last minute.
What an odd thing to say. Your message boils down to: don't vote because you might not be around later, and when that happens you are going to look scummy. Discouraging voting for such an arbitrary reason looks kind of scummy. Also, this hall-monitor stuff is a comfortable way for scum to post and have it look like they are pro-town. I never said don't vote. I just said be careful about throwing your votes around willy-nilly under the premise that you are going to remove them later. I never even said don't do that. I just don't want someone sticking someone else with a vote for flimsy reasons that ends up sealing a lynch because they couldn't get back in time to change it. That was the entire point of those two sentences. As for the mention of the scum tactic, I'm just saying that sometimes scum can not take part in big discussions later in the day by voting early and then disappearing. I'm just trying to help roflwaffle, by trying to get him to think about taking his vote seriously and having good reasons for whatever he does. If no one holds anyone accountable mafia can just breeze on by. 3) notice his defensive, and meek tone; in addition to his low post count. he's obviously afraid to attract attention to himself 4) he was lurking for a LONGGG time before he finally decided to post . What u thought we all forgot about that?
That leaves me with cross.
##Vote: Crossfire99
What I'd ask of everyone is to show me where Crossfire has done any scumhunting. He posted a little, dropped off the face of the earth, came back, responded to everyone's comments towards him, but never even gave us a single read throughout the day. Nobody looked scummy, because he really just didn't comment on ANYONE. I'm confused as to how that can be towny behavior, and he dropped in, spent time responding to all these people, but spent 0 characters doing any kind of hunting himself.
Lurking is bad, but you can lurk and contribute when you pop up. HeavOnEarth didn't contribute when he came back. Crossfire didn't contribute when he came back, except addressing our concerns about him. Between the timing of the votes on HeavOn and the lack of any push on him, I'd rather go with Crossfire today.
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s0Lstice never voted for roflwaffles. He put an FOS on him. His vote should still be for HeavOnEarth
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my vote is on HeavOnEarth my dear host, I have merely FoS'ed Rofflwaffles55
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On June 15 2012 08:33 s0Lstice wrote:
my vote is on HeavOnEarth my dear host, I have merely FoS'ed Rofflwaffles55
Noted!
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Austin, you do have a point about Crossfire99 not really scumhunting. I'll be going through everyone's filters again on N1, I'll pay close attention to his. Consider though...he has a pattern of inactivity no matter what he rolls. He could have came back, saw that his name was in the lynch hat, and thought that his limited time was best spent defending himself. I don't see this as unreasonable.
This is not an excuse for him, just food for thought. He is going to have some work to do on night 1/day 2 to prove that he is pursuing the town win condition.
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LET THE GALLOWS RUN RED!!!!! :OOOOO
..I've been feeling jittery all day. It's seriously more effective than any amount of caffiene >_<;
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On June 15 2012 03:52 s0Lstice wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2012 02:44 roflwaffles55 wrote:
I believe that the most lynchable potential scum right now would be Crossfire99. I understand that there are already votes on HeavOnEarth, but if he really is that incompetent at bringing cases to the table, as a scum, why would he try to post them? He is suspicious to me, but not as suspicious as Crossfire. Unless he responds to the accusations in a convincing and collected manner soon, I strongly believe that he should be lynched. What? This is a really, really odd question. Your question assumes that he thinks of himself as incompetent, and actively tries to compensate for it. You clear him on this basis: a scum HeavOnEarth would look in the mirror and be like 'boy are you incompetent, don't go posting any cases now!', whereas a townie HeavOnEarth would be blissfully unaware of his incompetence and post as he sees fit. Furthermore, it's obvious scum are going to make an effort to accuse people, they have to appear town... ##FoS: rofflwaffles55
You're right, it was more of a musing then a deliberate thought, I wasn't thinking from his perspective.
I do still believe that HeavOnEarth's play is extremely scummy, and I still am not satisfied with Crossfire's defenses.
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I was checking Heaven's filter.
I must admint that he looks suspicious at this stage of the game. I was expecting from him a more detailed analysis of his play, since he stated that he has more experience in playing mafia.
I dislike the fact that he took the most easy target to pressure (golden), instead of trying to outline the other players, He also adds some points against CF, but isn't really big of a deal.
Although I share some suspicions with him, I see that he is not contributing at the same level as the rest of us are. I don't really think that it will be that much of a loss if he flips town. If that is the case, he have a whole post history behind us too see who bandwagoned and who tried to hunt down mafia
As I don't want a NL, I'll change my vote to heaven.
##Unvote: O.Golden_ne
##Vote: HeavOnEarth
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not the right format???
[/b]##Vote HeavOnEarth[/b]
is fixed?
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It's there, solstice, but in all honesty I don't feel like that's the strongest point. Going through HeavOn's filter, it didn't look much better. Currently, and I guess forever since he's about to be gone, I read HeavOn as attempting to look like he was scumhunting.
So it's really a tossup between absolutely 0 attempt to scumhunt at all, and what feels like a failed attempt to look like you're trying to hunt. Neither looking good, and neither really worse than the other.
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[QUOTE]On June 15 2012 08:15 sciberbia wrote:
@heavOnEarth
You are very likely getting lynched today. Your posting right now can only help town. If you are townie and are looking at the thread, you should definitely be posting reads right now.
[QUOTE]
Im hoping for a last minute post that can give some insight, if he is Town otherwise.
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formatting is just not my pal today. 
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heavonearth to get lynched. Night post soon!
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
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Final vote count:
Heavonearth:
Sciberbia
O.golden_ne
Roflwaffles55
Miltonkram
Suki
Alan133
S0lstice
Trackd00r
O.golden_ne:
Heavonearth
Crossfire99:
Austinmcc
Not voting:
Crossfire99
Heavonearth got lynched.
No big flavor because iPad but here's a scurrilous verse instead.
If you're prone to be gassy and bloated
It's a problem at festive events
Make a run for the garden when toted
Lest your intestines ferment
In a crisis then just let it seep a bit
It feels really good but it smells like shiOH MY GOD
TORCHES AND PITCHFORKS THEY'RE LYNCHING HEAVONEARTH
THEY'RE STRINGING HIM UP FROM A LAMP POST
OH GOD
THE BLOOD
THE BLOOD
THE RED RED BLOOD
Heavonearth the godfather is no more.
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 Fuck yeah
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Pretty sure I've got an idea of who his buds are too ;D
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Awesome job! 1 down, 2 to go.
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fuck yes :D
well done everyone!
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Solid lynch guys! Time to continue the hunting!
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NICE!!!
Beaware you both scum, we are going for you now!
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On June 15 2012 09:08 prplhz wrote:
Heavonearth got lynched.
This blue part scared the ever loving shit out of me
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This blue part scared the ever loving shit out of me
Memories of hegeo, s0Lstice? heh heh heh
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On June 15 2012 10:02 Miltonkram wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2012 09:08 prplhz wrote:
Heavonearth got lynched. This blue part scared the ever loving shit out of me Memories of hegeo, s0Lstice? heh heh heh
not funny
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On June 15 2012 10:02 Miltonkram wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2012 09:08 prplhz wrote:
Heavonearth got lynched. This blue part scared the ever loving shit out of me Memories of hegeo, s0Lstice? heh heh heh
lol yes  Zen_Man too from XVI. In half of my games I have ended up on a medic lynch bandwagon D1.  <---- that's me
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Sorry I missed the vote. We lynched a scum, so great job everybody. I was going to be here before the vote, but then my car became the victim of a hit and run accident (see spoiler for proof)+ Show Spoiler +. The last i don't know how many hours I have been going back and forth with different police officers and waiting for them, etc to get this all sorted out (it still isn't over).
I just logged on now to post an update because I'm sure some of you were probably wondering where I went. I'll be reading through the thread for what little time I have now and respond to some questions people had for me.
Am I going to be modkilled?
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@Crossfire99
Hm.. On the one hand, missing the vote is definitely something a mafia would do if they thought they could get away with it, as it's easier to push a no lynch that way. I like how he just conveniently got in a car accident exactly before the lynch. It's possible that he's town, but I can definitely see scum motivation for this gambit.
.... JUST KIDDING. I hope everyone is okay and things work out for you. I also hope he doesnt get modkilled cuz he has been contributing and sometimes shit just happens.
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First I'll go with roflwaffle:
+ Show Spoiler +On June 15 2012 04:03 roflwaffles55 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2012 03:23 Crossfire99 wrote:I'm just going to go down the thread and respond to people who have questions or suspicions addressed to me. Let me know if I miss your particular post. First up Austin: + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 03:37 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 01:56 Crossfire99 wrote:As for my current thoughts: The bolded part of this post by austin makes me suspicious of him. + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 22:23 austinmcc wrote:
I don't read those posts as contradictory, believe the second one clarifies the first and explains that, while he'd consider a NL, the standard is higher than "Town is lynching someone that isn't one of my top couple reads."
That said, even if the two statements are entirely contradictory, I don't really see anything scummy in that. More inclined to see contradictions concerning votes and reads as scummy, where someone has stated one thing but then has to take a party line, rather than super early statements concerning a no lynch. There's no agenda to push on that issue. Two completely contradictory statements without reasoning for the change is very suspicious. This is a good way to catch scum. They know the alignment of every person, so they have to make cases that they know are wrong (excluding bussing). This can lead to contradictory posts to make them better fit in with the current town mindset. Austin, why don't you think that contradictory statements are suspicious? They can be, depending on what they concern, and when they occur. See the italicized above, although I should have more explicitly qualified the bolded bit. If someone had barged into the thread yesterday saying "I love no lynches" and then "I hate no lynches" in the very next post, that's not scummy to me. There's no debate here (nobody is proposing we NL), it's not important at this time (start of day, no NL proposal). There's no scummy reason to swap between those two statements on that particular topic at this particular time. Thanks for qualifying your statement. I was confused why said it, but now I understand what you meant. I definitely agree with your italicized statement. Differences in voting behavior and reads are very important in finding scum. Next up Milton: + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 08:05 Miltonkram wrote:
@ roflwaffles
Ok, I see what you're saying. I thought you were completely backing off of alan even though you've made a decent case against him. I still don't like the fact that you took your vote off of him based on a wrist-slap from Crossfire, but I guess I misunderstood your intent. Since you're still pursuing your case on alan the unvote seems less scummy.
As far as alan133 is concerned I think you may have something. He's put very little pressure on anyone. When he does pressure he seems wishy-washy as hell.
Top two scumreads as of this moment: Mouldy Jeb and alan133.
@Crossfire, Golden, and HeavOnEarth
What do you think of these two players and the cases against them? Are there any scummy players you think we're missing? We need more activity out of you guys. Of the three of you, only heaven's put decent pressure on anyone and even that is difficult to take seriously because he hasn't followed up on his reads at all. Mouldy: If I can read the time right on his post (hopefully I can lol), he hasn't posted in a day even though he promised a case when he came back from work yesterday. So far he's just thrown around baseless accusations and hasn't contributed. He needs to post. Alan: I don't like his case on suki. I don't know how she has played in past games, but it seems like she is being open and contributing her own reads and putting in good work like going through my game history (props for doing that, I don't have time for that much research). I also don't like him trying to link people together so early. We know next to nothing so far. Don't make links between supposed "mafia" when no one has even flipped yet. Just find one person based on their scumminess and push to lynch them. This makes me feel a little suspicious of him. Respone to sciberbia: + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 14:10 sciberbia wrote:As promised, here are my thoughts on crossfire and heavonEarth. crossfireThere isn't any one thing that looks super scummy, but nothing in his filter gives me a townie feel, and there are a handful of small things that suggest he is scum: his suspicions on austin + Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +The bolded part of this post by austin makes me suspicious of him. + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 22:23 austinmcc wrote:
I don't read those posts as contradictory, believe the second one clarifies the first and explains that, while he'd consider a NL, the standard is higher than "Town is lynching someone that isn't one of my top couple reads."
That said, even if the two statements are entirely contradictory, I don't really see anything scummy in that. More inclined to see contradictions concerning votes and reads as scummy, where someone has stated one thing but then has to take a party line, rather than super early statements concerning a no lynch. There's no agenda to push on that issue. Two completely contradictory statements without reasoning for the change is very suspicious. This is a good way to catch scum. They know the alignment of every person, so they have to make cases that they know are wrong (excluding bussing). This can lead to contradictory posts to make them better fit in with the current town mindset. Austin, why don't you think that contradictory statements are suspicious? This is exactly the kind of D1 case I would expect a scum to make. Austin makes the somewhat peculiar assertion that there is nothing scummy about contradicting yourself on policy during the early game. Whether or not you agree with this statement is irrelevant. The point is, what does a mafia Austin stand to gain by making a statement like this? Is he planning on contradicting himself later? No. It's very likely that he actually believes what he said so the fact that he said it isn't indicative of his alignment. I don't think Austin's statement is scummy at all. But, it is definitely a statement that a mafia could attack, because it seems illogical. It's easy to criticize. And that's what crossfire did. This is the kind of thing mafia do D1: attack people for seemingly illogical statements even though it isn't a scumtell. Like the mafia's attacks on Vivax from last game. his stance on Mouldy Jeb + Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 03:38 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 02:45 s0Lstice wrote:
Crossfire99, what do you think of what I said about Mouldy Jeb?
Roflwaffles55, same question. Yeah Mouldy is acting really weird. He needs to get active to explain himself. Everything he has said so far lacks good reasoning. s0Lstice, an influential player and good townie, calls Mouldy Jeb his #1 suspicion. s0Lstice then explicitly asks crossfire for an opinion on Mouldy. Crossfire does exactly what I would expect a mafia to do. Agrees with the influential player on his #1 scumread, reiterating what s0Lstice said. Mouldy Jeb would undoubtedly be an easy lynch today, and assuming that he is town, would take the pressure off mafia. And if crossfire is so suspicious of MJ, why didn't he say anything until s0Lstice prompted him? I grant that none of this is solid evidence and that a townie could plausibly act the same way, but crossfire's response is definitely consistent with mafia behavior. Otherwise is avoiding scumhunting + Show Spoiler +
Looking through the rest of his filter, he doesn't say much meaty stuff. In his first post, he rehashes a lot of what previous people had said. And after that, he talks a lot about policy issues such as when to vote and how to pressure people. Nothing too controversial in his entire filter.
Overall, I'd say crossfire looks a bit scummy. Yeah I questioned Austin because I found that one sentence suspicious. Isn't that the whole point of this game: to ask questions about suspicious behavior, so they respond and then you can learn more about their alignment. (I also responded to him above) Yeah I responded to solstice's question. There wasn't much original content that I could put forth at the time. I believe Mouldy had like 3 posts with little content, therefore I agreed with him because it made sense. Also, I had just woken up and responded to what were the hot topics at the moment and then started going through the thread and pointing out different things I saw and responding to questions like solstice's. Also, sciberbia, you have a lot of expectations about how mafia should play. They can play any way they want. Don't assume that they will play a certain way. Ask austin about anacletus from our game. He had way too many thoughts about how mafia should play and I don't think my mafia team played the way he assumed we would at all. Another one from Milton: + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 19:21 Miltonkram wrote:
Ok I've been thinking pretty hard since work and there are three players I would feel good about lynching: Crossfire, HeavOnEarth and MJ.
Crossefire99
His play has already been outlined by sciberbia, so I won't expand on it too much. I'm also really suspicious at the timing of his disappearance from the thread. He hasn't posted since his defense against s0Lstice's probing pressure. It seems like the perfect time to go lurkey if he's scum. He just made his post and then could have hoped that his defense would be enough to keep himself out of further discussion. Obviously it hasn't, but I can definitely see scum motivation in his decision to go silent at the time that he did.
Just to sum up, I feel pretty confident in a lynch of any of these three players. I'll gladly put my vote behind any of them.
In regards to suki, I'm really on the fence about her. My opinion keeps flip-flopping as I read through her filter. I'm no longer confident in my suspicion of her. I liked parts of her defense and then her later pressure on alan, but there are parts I didn't like too. I'm withholding judgement until I have more time to think on her play. I can't do anything about my posting times. I pop in, read some, and post when I have time. I can't make any promises about the exact times that this will be so...idk what else to say. On to Suki: + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 00:06 suki wrote:
Let me go over my reads of the other players.
Crossfire99:
I spent a lot of time trying to figure out if he is scum or not. Looking into the filter of his two previous games, I found that his posting style is more or less the same.
In game 1, he rolls blue and lurks quite hard. He states out of game reasons for lurking, but he plays more or less non-commital, pointing out suspicious behavior but not really heavily pressuring anyone.
In game 2 as mafia, he starts out the game by doing two things. First, he posts a defense of a townie that had come under scrutiny. Second, he immediately starts pointing out errors in one particular person's posts. He actually tunnels this person for the entire Day 1 and only just fails to get him lynched. He survives for the whole game without really being under fire and mafia wins the game.
In this game I see a lot of policy talk, a lot of guidance talk, and hardly any pressure at all. I find it quite different from his previously successful mafia play. In addition, his helpful tone is quite present in the mafia QT from the previous game, which makes me feel more inclined to think he's actually trying to help, despite his posts not really pressuring or helping town much.
Basically, his meta has changed from his last scum game, and it's changed in a confusing way, and he isn't using the tactics that lead him to a win in the previous game. I'm waiting for more contributions from him before deciding whether I think he's scum or not.
Impressive research. I hadn't even thought about my helpfulness until you pointed that out until. I'll let people make their own conclusions about this, so I'll leave it at that. Your responses to s0lstice were clearly lacking, you said that you questioned austin on his sentence to extract some information, however you never actually followed up on your question. While that may have something to do with your posting schedule, it is still a problem. You can't expect to play the game and get away with posting no real cases and content without being lynched. As of yet, you still have not formed your own suspicions it seems, you're just giving your opinion on other people's suspicions. The MJ question I'll let you off on because there's honestly nothing to talk about with him. As to s0lstice's third point, you never responded as to why you haven't been more actively scumhunting.
I backed off my pressure of Austin because it was just that one question that I had that really jumped out to me. He explained himself sufficiently so I felt no further need to pressure him on that issue. I haven't been scum hunting because I didn't have the time the first time I posted. When I posted the second group of posts, I had to go out for bit right after and was going to scum hunt when I got back, but then my whole car situation happened, so that's the reason.
Now for Austin:
+ Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 08:28 austinmcc wrote:
That leaves me with cross.
##Vote: Crossfire99
What I'd ask of everyone is to show me where Crossfire has done any scumhunting. He posted a little, dropped off the face of the earth, came back, responded to everyone's comments towards him, but never even gave us a single read throughout the day. Nobody looked scummy, because he really just didn't comment on ANYONE. I'm confused as to how that can be towny behavior, and he dropped in, spent time responding to all these people, but spent 0 characters doing any kind of hunting himself.
Lurking is bad, but you can lurk and contribute when you pop up. HeavOnEarth didn't contribute when he came back. Crossfire didn't contribute when he came back, except addressing our concerns about him. Between the timing of the votes on HeavOn and the lack of any push on him, I'd rather go with Crossfire today.
Austin, the only thing I can say to you is that I know you will hold me accountable and make sure I post good stuff after I'm done with what I get done tonight. Hopefully I'll make it to day 2, so that you can see I'm trying. I also implore you consider that you might be getting a lot of your certainty and strong feelings on me from our last game. Try to look past that game, and look how I'm playing this game.
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awesome job guys. I'll be going through filters during the next few hours. I'm optimistic about lynching another mafia tomorrow.
@Crossfire
That sucks man. Good luck with getting everything sorted out. And I hope you don't get modkilled.
@all
Now seems like a good time to share a couple more thoughts about night actions that have been bouncing around in my head. Nothing too crucial, but just some suggestions.
@vigi: consider claiming your shot just before the daypost
+ Show Spoiler +
There's a lot of personal judgement that goes into this, but if you are afraid of being NK'd, and you are using your shot, consider claiming it seconds before the daypost. Then if you get NK'd and flip vigi, we aren't deprived of information.
on claiming RB's
+ Show Spoiler +
If you are RB'd by the mafia roleblocker, it would be really helpful for you to claim the RB. It just gives the town information that the mafia already has.
If on the other hand you are RB'd by the jailkeeper, claiming the RB probably isn't in the town's best interest because it lets mafia know the existance of a jailkeeper.
Of course, the problem is that you will not know for sure who RB'd you. But depending on who you are, it could be pretty obvious. If you are pretty sure it was a mafia roleblocker that roleblocked you, you should claim it.
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Alright lets get this show on the road!
I've gone through everyone left, and let me say that one person really sticks out to me, more than anyone else.
trackd00r
The first thing that I did when looking for scum is see who targetted MouldyJeb, and Crossfire. Between those two and HeavOnEarth, these three made up the prime candidates for the day 1 lynch. Also keep in mind that HeavOnEarth targeted Mouldy, Crossfire and Golden as I go through trackd00r's history.
To start, trackd00r posts a meh case on Mouldy early on but doesn't press it. Later on he posts that he's not convinced of Mouldy's case.
He says that the most suspicious players on his list are me, crossfire and golden, and that he'd push a lynch on any of them.
First, he totally forgets to post analysis on me. At this point three players (Milton, sciberbia and Alan) have stated their suspicions on me. It's really weird how he states that he's suspicious and doesn't back it up.
He's willing to lynch me, which means he must have a strong opinion on my play. He posts big analysis on crossfire and golden but then forgets to justify his suspicions on me.
This alone isn't suspicious but it questions the clarity of his thoughts, and its easier for mafia to get confused as they're constantly trying to spin things.
He targets Crossfire. At this point Crossfire is under pressure by austin, roflwaffle, Milton, and sciberbia. Golden and I have been the ones backing crossfire up.
trackd00r lists the things that Crossfire has done. He dislikes how Crossfire disappeared from radar and was just checking the thread, and how he didn't bring anything new to the table.
He ends without a solid opinion, states that there's nothing to quote to show for evidence. Basically, his words amount to 'I dont like the way he is playing'. Yet he is willing to push a lynch on Crossfire.
Following this he writes a case on Golden. He specifically states that Golden is 'very similar to crossfire, but acts in a much scummier way.'
Bragging to much IMO about his task of writing stuff. He states that he wants write a summary for himself. Dude, you are not playing alone, you have 8 any other people doing the same thing, and the only way is by working togheter.
His argument has nothing to do with, and doesn't label this, as scummy behaviour. Annoying, maybe(?) but not scummy.
He also finds Golden's wall of text "quite disappointing"
In some parts, where he clearly explains events, it's got the name of an opinion.
I don't quite understand his words. I believe he's saying something along the lines of Golden explaining events clearly, and that it has something to do with an opinion... But regardless of the exact meaning, he isn't labelling this behaviour as scummy.
Finally to end all this post, he FOS'd MouldyJeb with NO reasoning or whatsoever. He even took s0lstice analysis to back up his descsion, instead of using his unique arguments.
Here, it clearly shows that his opinions are not more than a influence from other players. In just 6 minutes, CF passed from being okay for him, to ''omg might be suspicious''.
And, where is his case against MJ anyways?
Basically trackd00r is arguing that Golden brags about the task of writing stuff, that he explains events (maybe without making an opinion?? if i try to find an argument in his words, since golden doesn't really attack anyone in that post) and doesn't have unique arguments.
In summary, Golden has been really inconsistent with his play The expectations I had from him are far from satisfactory, in function of what he has promised.
In summary, he is willing to lynch three people, but he doesn't elaborate on why he thinks any of the three are suspicious. His arguments amount to not bringing anything to the table, and not playing satisfactorily.
He votes golden, and makes a comment that if he comes back on time he'll vote to prevent a NL.
He then does so, changing his vote to HeavOn. This was at the last minute, and HeavOn already had the majority, so the lynch was more or less set. He can't even argue that he didn't realize that HeavOn had the majority because prplhz had posted a list that clearly pointed this out just a few posts above.
I've gone through trackd00r's play in detail, now I'd like to summarize the points and explain why each point is suspicious.
1. Soft aggression vs Mouldy early on but later says he's not convinced. Slightly important point because Mafia want to avoid all targetting the same people.
2. Goes after Crossfire and Golden. Crossfire was a sort of easy bandwagon since so many players were after him. The Golden push is suspicious because so few people targeted him, one of whom was HeavOnEarth.
3. Does not comment on HeavOnEarth at all until the very very end. Definitely scum motivation for avoiding this. trackd00r was around back when s0lstice first started his push on HeavOnEarth. That was when trackd00r was pushing his cases against Crossfire and Golden.
4. His cases are all weak. He never points out scummy play despite singling out the three people who he would push for a lynch. His arguments are weak and consist of not contributing and not playing 'satisfactorily'.
There's no townie motivation that late in the day to simply target people for unsatisfactory play, as opposed to finding scummy play. There is plenty of scum motivation to try to find something, anything, to attack, while not putting themselves fully on the radar.
5. He bandwagons at the last minute on HeavOnEarth. A pointless move. His analysis is flaky. He says, "I must admit that he looks suspicious at this stage of the game."
Trackd00r has been noncommital, he's been weakly targetting people for playing unsatisfactorily as opposed to playing scummy. He went for the easy target of Crossfire, and you can argue he tried to push a bandwagon on Golden with HeavOn. He refused to comment on HeavOn, and comes back at the last minute to appear like he's supporting town by voting against HeavOn as the last, and wholly unnecessary vote.
I am posting this now because I have no life and I really should be doing something else but I'm here reading filters and writing extremely long posts instead. I figure I'll get this out there now and let people mull over my thoughts.
I'm interested in other people's opinions of who might be scum. I (and I kid you not) quickly went through everyone's filters and I picked the most scummy looking person of the bunch to target. I wonder if someone can point out other scummy stuff that I missed.
Cheers.
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@sciberbia
Uh.. regarding night actions I don't know. I honestly haven't even considered them yet cuz a) last game I died day 1 and b) we didn't even have any blues. Sooo.. I will comment on night actions in the morning when I wake up.
It seems like a really relevant topic so I want to explain why I posted a giant scumhunting thread and then didn't talk about night actions at all. Well that's the reason. See you guys in like 8 hours.
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Ok now let's analyze this lynch.
Solstice drew the first blood with these + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 10:07 s0Lstice wrote:Alright, so I went filter spelunking and explored every nook and cranny. My general impression at this moment is one of disappointment. I know it's rare to get good reads on day 1, but some people's filters are incredibly barren. If I had to lynch right now, here would be my suspects. HeavOnEarthHe's pretty lurky. His hard stance is on Golden, where he builds a case on the poor guy's intro post. Look at the case: Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 23:52 HeavOnEarth wrote:morning everyone First off, id like to say im suspicious of everyone who tries to stay under the radar. I feel newer mafia players have a tendency to try and stay quiet. That said O.Golden_ne looks the most suspicious to me- On June 13 2012 09:43 O.Golden_ne wrote:On June 13 2012 09:25 austinmcc wrote:
-snip
I'm not looking to push lurkers early and stay on them for an entire day cycle, killing discussion, but they need to be considered and I'd rather be looking at them on earlier days than when we're close to/at LYLO/MYLO. agreed. NL is bad. Killing lurking is necessary. Lynching scum is great. Lets get the ball rolling and squeeze out the lurkers early so we can narrow things down later on. Looking forward to scumhunting, i'm happy with the deadline on this as its 10am for me in Aust, which means i'll be able to meet the deadlines for lynching in the mornings a little easier. I'll try my hardest this game to meet these deadlines and to contribute useful information rather than filler. Essentially i'm all for an agressive early game. I want to be able to establish some basic reads by the end of Day one, and if theres no-one who's appropriately scummy then we lynch a lurker. Golden Is there anything even remotely helpful in this post? Everyone knows NL is bad. he seems to be posting for the sake of it also, i checked his last game, (he was townie) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=337671&user=92568 u can tell his tone is completely different, and he is generally more helpful. Think of it like this. Scum will be making cases against people on day 1...they have to. I looked at all the cases people have made, and this one stank especially bad. It's built entirely around a hello post. It has a very artificial feel to it. Also, he just posted this: Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 08:47 HeavOnEarth wrote:On June 14 2012 08:38 s0Lstice wrote:
Just checking in guys. I'm going to make a post on my top scumreads in a few hours, as well as some errata. Lynch time is fast approaching and we really need to buckle down. ? lynch isn't for another 24 hours? Townies always feel the pressure of the ticking clock. Half of our time being gone doesn't seem to trouble him. He hasn't really bothered to comment on what's been going on in the thread outside of his own reads. He's been on Mouldy Jeb's case as well. Here's some more recent(!) material: Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 09:32 HeavOnEarth wrote:
was sort of waiting for MJ to post something after he was like hurr durr ima post soon. i took a look at his previous game though and his posts seem consistent from when he was townie. hes really not helping at all, and definitely still looks scum, but it feels like poor town play rather than mafia. Confused? Me too. I think this dude has a chance at flipping scum. On June 15 2012 00:50 s0Lstice wrote:
Some housekeeping stuff first..
I am removing alan133 from my scum list. The main thing that had me suspicious was his strong-arm defense, but everything following that has been fine. I like that he is holding himself accountable for his style, and I want to see what he can do when not under pressure.
austin and suki have commented on crossfire99, and I have to say I agree. I was planning on wrighting a post similar to what suki has done. The cogent point is that he has long bouts of inactivity when he is both scum and town. He should get the same level of suspicion that every lurker gets, but nothing special beyond that I feel. His filter right now is pretty garbagey, and hard to get a read on. I wouldn't be upset if we lynched him, but I think we can do better.
Here is better: HeavOnEarth. Nothing has happened to change my initial opinion on him for the better. In fact, him buddying up to sciberbia in his latest post makes him look worse. Go read my case if you missed it. I'm not the only one to see him as suspicious, so I think there is plenty of traction here.
##vote HeavOnEarth
Then alan joins the fun with this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 04:00 alan133 wrote:I see the current pressure are easing off from me. I also realize I has pretty much ignored everyone else except for rolf and suki. @HeavOnEarth His first few points seem disconnected. None of them relates to each other: From FoSing Golden for his opening post, + Show Spoiler +And I thought rofl@me and suki@trap was bad later jumping to accusing Mouldy Jeb (he was an easy target), and then commenting on s0ltice's preception on lynch time + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 08:47 HeavOnEarth wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 08:38 s0Lstice wrote:
Just checking in guys. I'm going to make a post on my top scumreads in a few hours, as well as some errata. Lynch time is fast approaching and we really need to buckle down. ? lynch isn't for another 24 hours? . He also state that he is waiting for responses. Upon being debunked on Gold's read, he basically dismiss it similar the way suki has dismissed her case on trap, claiming they are trying to start conversation. In suki's case, this is still believable. Before her case there was no controversy, and very little to talk about. However, when Heave posted on Gold, there were already controversies + Show Spoiler + and he ignore them altogether. I interpret his motive is to lynch a lurker over an already presented scummy player, and this can hardly be town. Very Suspicious Right now, I find Heav and MJ were the best lynch candidates, and HeavOnEarth appears to be more scummy##unvote: Suki##vote: HeavOnEarthI am off to bed, it is 3 am right here. I will get up in 4 hours so we can get a successful lynch. Another refresh reveals more post from crossfire. My opinion on him has not swayed.
Next suki comes to the party + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 04:58 suki wrote:HeavOnEarth: Okay, something really really sticks out to me in Heavon's first post, and it's not about golden. It's this particular line: Show nested quote +also id like to point out crossfire is completely inactive, whereas in past games he was a pretty talkative little townie.
thoughts? Above, I posted my opinions on Crossfire, where I had gone through pretty much his entire filter in his two previous games, and the big thing I noted was that Crossfire LURKED very hard in his first game as blue, and somewhat lurked in the second game as red. HeavOn clearly is talking about Crossfire's game as blue, 'He was a pretty talkative little townie'. This is clearly wrong. He continues his case against Crossfire later after sciberbia brings it up. This has already been labelled as suspicious. It's a big point against him that he waited until someone else pointed fingers at Crossfire, when he had so early established a read on Crossfire - a fairly in depth read as he had even looked at Crossfire's filters from previous games. The thing is, the case HeavOn makes against crossfire disregards the previous game filters. Crossfire, as mafia, was assertive actively pushed cases against other players. He also lurked quite a bit. Show nested quote +
As for golden i admit my analysis was pretty damn bad LOL , but he didn't really have any other posts for me to provoke him with, and i still feel its a strong play to accuse lurkers of being scummy, just to get them to talk. The way he went about replying though felt really odd to me. For example, i don't really care if you're taking a few mins to write up a post. Why tell me about it(unless you're about to be majority lynched or something). Just feels off.
HeavOn votes for Golden despite saying that his case against Golden is weak. He doesn't back off however, stating that the response was scummy and that the scummy thing about it was how golden was commenting on the time it would take to make his posts? Seems like a very strained argument to make. I see clear scum motivation in voting for golden. In my previous game as mafia, I harped on Miltonkram for his early vote against sciberbia. Even when my argument was convincingly rebutted, I continued to press my case against him finding any sort of scummy intent I could make up. Why? Because I didn't want to be wishy-washy. HeavOn's case against golden is that golden 'just feels off'. This makes Golden a 'solid lynch' to him. I'm out of time, but that's my insight into HeavOn. I feel that there can definitely be scum motivation behind his posts. I haven't had time to closely look at other people but for now HeavOn is clearly a scummier target than alan. ##unvote alan113##vote HeavOnEarth
Those three I mentioned above all brought solid analysis and new thoughts on Heavon, so I feel confident in seeing them as town for right now.
Then Milton (+ Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 04:59 Miltonkram wrote:
Oops, slept in a bit later than I'd planned. s0Lstice, I'm inclined to agree with you. HeavOnEarth looks like the best lynch candidate.
Everybody, I'd suggest you take a look at him. His filter is not particularly long, but I think there is enough scummy behavior there to warrant a vote.
##Vote: HeavOnEarth On June 15 2012 05:09 roflwaffles55 wrote:
I noticed already that his play was scummy, however I felt like it was the easy way out, I was hoping to nail a more influential scum D1, but I guess that's just new player optimism... If he flips scum, I'm not sure what kind of information we're going to gain from it as his posts don't seem to link him to anyone.. and if he flips town then all we really know is that he was a poor townie.
I'll go with the flow because he's fairly blatant with his scumminess (real word?) but I'd like to keep an eye on Crossfire, as well as keeping Mouldy Jeb in mind for a D2 lynch.
##unvote Crossfire99
##vote HeavOnEarth
I'm not sure if I'll be on tonight, I'll do my absolute best to be on in case there's a swing of opinion. On June 15 2012 06:27 O.Golden_ne wrote:
in regards to HeavonEarth.
In relation to my:
a) knowing i'm town.
b) Him trying to bus me one the grounds of "seems like a solid case".
c) lacklustre contribution and no rebuttle to any arguments.
i feel like he see's a bandwagon forming and jumps on straight away.
#VOTE: HeavonEarth
i still maintain a #FOS on MouldyJeb
i still owe the group a comment on Crossfire99 but i honestly dont have time for it before work. On June 15 2012 02:44 roflwaffles55 wrote:
I'm going to post as though all of these people are scum, and the impact they have a chance to make if they are left alive. I think it will give a different way of thinking about it.
HeavOnEarth
His play is quite suspicious and his accusations and suspicions lackluster at best. He could just as easily be an awful townie as scum.
Overall he's been fairly ineffectual, but if he's hiding behind a mask of confusion and bad reads, he could be an annoyance as scum later on.
I believe that the most lynchable potential scum right now would be Crossfire99. I understand that there are already votes on HeavOnEarth, but if he really is that incompetent at bringing cases to the table, as a scum, why would he try to post them? He is suspicious to me, but not as suspicious as Crossfire. Unless he responds to the accusations in a convincing and collected manner soon, I strongly believe that he should be lynched.
##vote Crossfire99
This is followed by sciberbia's vote + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 07:56 sciberbia wrote:My thoughts on HeavOnEarth: I was originally somewhat suspicious of him for throwing suspicion onto a handful of easy targets, and then becoming wishy/washy about it. He has since made me more suspicious with his response and attitude towards golden. Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 20:15 HeavOnEarth wrote:
As for golden i admit my analysis was pretty damn bad LOL , but he didn't really have any other posts for me to provoke him with, and i still feel its a strong play to accuse lurkers of being scummy, just to get them to talk. The way he went about replying though felt really odd to me. For example, i don't really care if you're taking a few mins to write up a post. Why tell me about it(unless you're about to be majority lynched or something). Just feels off. First of all, he admits that his case was "pretty damn bad" and LOL's about it. I see this as slightly scummy. He is being ingratiating and agreeable, rather than firm, objective, and analytic. This is more typical of mafia than of townies. Next HeavOnEarth says that there were no other posts to provoke Golden with. The question I'm left asking myself is: why did HeavOnEarth feel that he had to attack Golden at all? He says it was strong play of him to "accuse lurkers of being scummy", but at the time of HeavOnEarth's accusation, golden didn't look lurky. Golden made 1 post in the first 4 hours of the game, and then HeavOnEarth accused him. 1 decent-sized post in the first 4 hours isn't lurky. Why was HeavOnEarth looking for a reason to "provoke him"? Finally, heavOnEarth refuses to back down from his suspicions of golden, and even ends up voting golden, but doesn't give any good reasons. He just says that golden's posting seems odd. Odd =/= scummy. It looks like he just arbitrarily picked a target to attack at the beginning and now won't back down. Overall, I think he has a good chance of being mafia and I'm happy with lynching him. ##Vote HeavOnEarth
Then austin comes in and votes for me with this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 08:28 austinmcc wrote:I think Heavon looks scummy. But his voting took off after he posted that he was going to be gone for auto repairs. And there's been very little pushback. I'm particularly worried by: (1) us going for the guy who basically said "Won't be around to defend myself," and (2) the lack of any pushback against him, when we had multiple targets recently. There could be some bussing going on, but we had a couple other juicy targets, and I wouldn't expect a bus in that situation. At the very least, my stance right now is that he doesn't look good, but the vast majority of the votes and comments on him seem to have occurred after he said he was leaving. I don't want to lynch him today based on that alone. See your comment towards him. Yes, his reads would help town. Yes, he ought to defend himself. But he may actually have been gone these last few hours, and I want to see his response before I lynch him. If it looks bad, there's D2. I think I'm saying the same thing over and over, so I'll knock it off. Apart from those basic statements, I'll note this. He DOES fit into a category of people trying to look like they're scumhunting but not. The 1 post suspicion of Golden, his comment on MJ - Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 02:39 HeavOnEarth wrote:check out Mouldy Jeb's posts, and accusations On June 14 2012 00:20 Mouldy Jeb wrote:
nope roffle that was a gut feeling about you that why I stated I have no evidence Why would someone try to direct suspicions with NO reasoning? his chiming in on crossfire - + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 20:15 HeavOnEarth wrote:@Sciberbia in addition to what u said on crossfire, notice that he 1) only replies when called out. Every message he is replying to someone, not making his own points aside from his opening. 2) Every one of his posts feels like complete filler to me. he is trying to LOOK helpful, without actively contributing anything + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 02:06 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 02:00 roflwaffles55 wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 01:56 Crossfire99 wrote:Just woke up. I'll start with that only as a last resort will I be for lynching a lurker Day 1. If we can get some good scum hunting done Day 1 we will have a more productive lynch than just a random lurker. Now onto what has been happening. On the whole suki and trapdoor issue: + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 12:44 suki wrote:Is it just me or is trackd00r coming off as scummy already? Show nested quote +
If I understood correctly, it doesn't mean that I would stop any lynch that I didn't mention on my analysis. Just because I have a candidate for lynch, it doesn't imply that I discard any other possibility.
It's something related to common sense. If any other cases are convincing enough, I'll throw my vote there in the case I can't get a majority. In the other hand, if we end up like RNG lynching (which is a bad idea), any other poster that could be doing silly mistakes, or even a player practically saying ''hey guys, I'm mafia, lynch me'' that's when it goes against my mindset. Any possibility is valuable, but if there is something absurdly wrong, I'll call it, even if that means a no lynch.
This post screams to me that he's trying to be super cautious with his words, so that he'll have a safety net if/when he ever changes a vote or bandwagons on someone else. He throws out some 'obvious' examples of reasons of what wouldn't agree with him, and even mentions that he would follow through on a read, even if it that means a no lynch.BUT WAIT! Just ONE post previous to that he says this: Show nested quote +I won't accept a NO LYNCH unless I believe we may have a serious mislynch coming. ... Dude. You try to take a firm stance against something, and then you do the most scummy wishy-washy-ness thing ever the very next post. You're clearly informed about mafia as you brought up the idea of a day 1 RNG lynch, and being against a no lynch is not a difficult or complicated policy to hold. I feel that such a simple logical slip only happens if you're trying to play it safe and keep your options open. ##vote trackd00r I think suki was just being aggressive. I admit that I found trapdoor's response post to be weird, but then I realized that English is probably not his native language, so I reread it a few times. I don't see a contradiction in there, he is just explaining that he would try to stop a lynch that he really believed was on a townie. I'll give suki the benefit of the doubt on this case and say she is an over eager townie for now. On roflwaffle and alan: + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 22:28 roflwaffles55 wrote:I woke up this morning to the arguments made towards trackd00r, and while the arguments made against him weren't particularly convincing, his defense was a little bit lackluster as well. However, I would like to bring your attention to someone else that is acting quite scummy as it stands. Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 13:05 alan133 wrote:On June 13 2012 11:12 roflwaffles55 wrote:On June 13 2012 11:03 alan133 wrote:
Good morning everyone. Looks like the first thing I am going to do in the office is to play mafia on TL. I don't recognize anyone here since this is my first game, well except for s0Lsitce since he is in the game I read. That's my brief introduction, and habitually in the beginning of any game, GLHF.
I am new and am unsure how to proceed with the game, but my current strategy is to wait for more post to come. Currently I have no FoS. That also mean I do not trust anyone yet. What are your thoughts on what's been posted as of yet? On the inactive/lurkers lynch + Show Spoiler +
I believe inactive players/lurkers are generally anti-town/bad town play in any mafia game, so lynching them isn't a bad idea (Since I believe d1 lynch is good, refer below), if there aren't better candidates of course.
On the day 1 lynch/no lynch + Show Spoiler +
I agree on lynching day 1 based on my experience with other mafia games (outside TL) with similar setup. By reading other games on TL I also notice the current meta game is to lynch when there are more players, as it gives townies clues.
I am off to lunch, will be commenting on my thoughts later as I see some interesting posts/votes already. His first post puts him on the bandwagon with his opinion on the inactives and lurkers, and is generally a contentless post with little to no controversy. Otherwise, nothing to bring the spotlight to him at all. While this is not by any means evidence of scummy play, there comes to attention the next post he makes. Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 15:40 alan133 wrote:My thoughts on suki's case: + Show Spoiler +Any possibility is valuable, but if there is something absurdly wrong, I'll call it, even if that means a no lynch. I won't accept a NO LYNCH unless I believe we may have a serious mislynch coming. I started writing before I refresh and saw s0lstice's post. As he already pointed it out, there are no contradictions between the two statements. trackd00r merely states that NL is bad unless it is a "serious" mislynch in both highlighted sentence. If I am missing something, please correct me. Also, Miltonkram: + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 10:35 Miltonkram wrote:
Hey all, glad to see we've got a bit of activity already.
In NMM XV we actually had a decent discussion about no-lynches (involving me making a fool of myself) and how they can actually be beneficial in certain setups. That being said, we don't know for certain if we'll have any modkills so we should leave no-lynches off the table until we hit the unlikely scenario that a no-lynch is beneficial for the town.
Town, the best way to contribute is just to get posting. Let everyone know what your thoughts are. Did someone post something suspicious? Let us know about it. Do you think the town is making a bad move? Let us know about it. If a townie lurks he/she is letting down his/her entire team. So don't do it, K? I'm sooooooooper serious. Like sooooper, soooooooooooper serious.
Hey sciberbia, remember this
##Vote: sciberbia
...heh heh heh
Is it me or you are not actually + Show Spoiler +soooooooooooooooooper serious ? I personally think (well played) townies are not the ones that bluffs around, let alone voting someone without any reason at all? Generally, fooling around, to me, is anti-town/ bad town play. My current opinion + Show Spoiler +FMPOV, suki's case was most probably based on a misunderstanding, but (s)he could very well did it intentionally hoping for a bandwagon leading to a mislynch. Note that I am merely listing the possibilities, I do not FoS anyone yet, which can also mean that I do not trust anyone yet. This is the post that really got me wondering. How by now can you have no suspicions? There has been quite a few suspicious decisions by several people, giving you more then enough time to form a case against someone, or at least apply some pressure. His statement about trackd00r comes after s0lstice, leaving his opinion tied to a fairly influential player and just reiterating what s0lstice said with no additional evidence or opinionated comments. Again, seeming like he's contributing without actually bringing anything to the table. He throws around some suspicion towards Miltonkram, however not enough to constitute a case or apply any pressure, just enough to make people go filter milton and consider what he might have done, which yet again, leaves him out of the spotlight. The last statement he makes in this post is the most suspicious and the largest tell of his indecision and lack of real input. He restates his opinion that suki's case is a misunderstanding, again, nothing of value. He then continues to explain that he has no FoS and that he doesn't trust anyone, leaving his options open, and having no real contrary opinions. His current play is anti-town at best, as he hasn't brought any of his thoughts to the table, and has only left ambiguous and bandwagoning answers to keep attention on those with controversial opinions. I think roflwaffle is jumping a little too hard on alan here. It is like 1/3 of the way through Day 1. We are not going to have a lot to work with and consequently we aren't going to really know what to think of people until we get more information. Therefore, I feel alan is playing smartly by not rushing to find every little thing that might possibly be suspicious and throw a vote on someone because of it. On Milton: He was just joking around. If he doesn't stop then I'll start getting suspicious of him. As for my current thoughts: The bolded part of this post by austin makes me suspicious of him. + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 22:23 austinmcc wrote:
I don't read those posts as contradictory, believe the second one clarifies the first and explains that, while he'd consider a NL, the standard is higher than "Town is lynching someone that isn't one of my top couple reads."
That said, even if the two statements are entirely contradictory, I don't really see anything scummy in that. More inclined to see contradictions concerning votes and reads as scummy, where someone has stated one thing but then has to take a party line, rather than super early statements concerning a no lynch. There's no agenda to push on that issue. Two completely contradictory statements without reasoning for the change is very suspicious. This is a good way to catch scum. They know the alignment of every person, so they have to make cases that they know are wrong (excluding bussing). This can lead to contradictory posts to make them better fit in with the current town mindset. Austin, why don't you think that contradictory statements are suspicious? We need more information, and the only way to get that information is by pressuring people, scum starts with an information advantage and the faster we work to even that out, the better position we'll be in. I agree that we need more information and we get that from pressuring people, but we need to do that smartly. If too many people are throwing around minor accusations all the time, it just confuses the town and allows mafia to sit back and laugh. That is what happened in NMM XIII when I was mafia. Ask austin, he was in it too. On June 14 2012 03:38 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 02:45 s0Lstice wrote:
Crossfire99, what do you think of what I said about Mouldy Jeb?
Roflwaffles55, same question. Yeah Mouldy is acting really weird. He needs to get active to explain himself. Everything he has said so far lacks good reasoning. On June 14 2012 03:50 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 03:24 s0Lstice wrote:On June 14 2012 02:02 Crossfire99 wrote:
--snipped
Be careful roflwaffle, votes are only easily removable if you are around to remove them. You never know what might happen. Also, votes early on in the day cycle that don't really mean much followed by complete disappearance during a controversial lynch can be scum tactic to avoid making mistakes in a heated debate that occurs last minute.
What an odd thing to say. Your message boils down to: don't vote because you might not be around later, and when that happens you are going to look scummy. Discouraging voting for such an arbitrary reason looks kind of scummy. Also, this hall-monitor stuff is a comfortable way for scum to post and have it look like they are pro-town. I never said don't vote. I just said be careful about throwing your votes around willy-nilly under the premise that you are going to remove them later. I never even said don't do that. I just don't want someone sticking someone else with a vote for flimsy reasons that ends up sealing a lynch because they couldn't get back in time to change it. That was the entire point of those two sentences. As for the mention of the scum tactic, I'm just saying that sometimes scum can not take part in big discussions later in the day by voting early and then disappearing. I'm just trying to help roflwaffle, by trying to get him to think about taking his vote seriously and having good reasons for whatever he does. If no one holds anyone accountable mafia can just breeze on by. 3) notice his defensive, and meek tone; in addition to his low post count. he's obviously afraid to attract attention to himself 4) he was lurking for a LONGGG time before he finally decided to post . What u thought we all forgot about that? Not much there. His bit on crossfire is way more robust than his bit on golden or MJ, but still doesn't feel like a whole lot of scumhunting for a day. Again though, I want to wait on him.
That leaves me with cross. ##Vote: Crossfire99What I'd ask of everyone is to show me where Crossfire has done any scumhunting. He posted a little, dropped off the face of the earth, came back, responded to everyone's comments towards him, but never even gave us a single read throughout the day. Nobody looked scummy, because he really just didn't comment on ANYONE. I'm confused as to how that can be towny behavior, and he dropped in, spent time responding to all these people, but spent 0 characters doing any kind of hunting himself. Lurking is bad, but you can lurk and contribute when you pop up. HeavOnEarth didn't contribute when he came back. Crossfire didn't contribute when he came back, except addressing our concerns about him. Between the timing of the votes on HeavOn and the lack of any push on him, I'd rather go with Crossfire today.
Trackdoor then comes in and votes last with this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 08:52 trackd00r wrote:
I was checking Heaven's filter.
I must admint that he looks suspicious at this stage of the game. I was expecting from him a more detailed analysis of his play, since he stated that he has more experience in playing mafia.
I dislike the fact that he took the most easy target to pressure (golden), instead of trying to outline the other players, He also adds some points against CF, but isn't really big of a deal.
Although I share some suspicions with him, I see that he is not contributing at the same level as the rest of us are. I don't really think that it will be that much of a loss if he flips town. If that is the case, he have a whole post history behind us too see who bandwagoned and who tried to hunt down mafia
As I don't want a NL, I'll change my vote to heaven.
##Unvote: O.Golden_ne
##Vote: HeavOnEarth
I think that leaves everyone except for me and Heavon. I won't even bother quoting Heavon. He just went with a weak vote on Golden and then got lynched. And I missed the lynch for the reasons stated above.
Ok. That's all the time I have for now (I should have gone to bed an hour and a half ago, but whatever). I don't know if I'll be back in time before the night ends to post some more thoughts, so consider this my contribution for now. If I survive the lynch, I'll look into roflwaffle's filter and get a better read on him. I encourage you all to do the same and let me know what you think whether you agree or disagree.
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I am going to write a post. I am aware that my writing speed is some what slow, so I am going to post a short summary of what is about to come.
@mouldy/unforgiven_ve swap - my thoughts
@sciberbia - my slight suspicion due to his discussion about night actions.
@suki and rolf "conspiracy theory"- dismissing it
@my thought on O.Golden_ne vs austinmcc. My suspicion on Golden has grown while austinmcc's filters strikes me as being town.
@my prime suspect - roflwaffle55, please look at my reasoning before judging if I have a bias. I am aware I focused on him and suki a lot and seems to be counter attacking hard. I don't see why I should hide my suspicion just because I fear people will take it wrongly. Judge my reasoning!!
I have not focused on other players yet, I will post my content soon.
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I've gone through the filters and updated my reads. I think we are in pretty good shape due to yesterday's lynch. There are a handful of players that look pretty townie after HeavOnEarth's flip, and having a bunch of townreads alive is great for us.
Even more importantly, there is one player in particular who looks quite scummy after yesterday: roflwaffles55
roflwaffles gets more and more suspicious as the day goes on, but I'll start with minor things at the beginning, and go through his noteworthy posts chronologically
his comment on trackd00r+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 22:28 roflwaffles55 wrote:
I woke up this morning to the arguments made towards trackd00r, and while the arguments made against him weren't particularly convincing, his defense was a little bit lackluster as well.
However, I would like to bring your attention to someone else that is acting quite scummy as it stands.
He avoids taking a stance on trackd00r using phrases such as "weren't particularly convincing" and "little bit lackluster". His language is slightly scummy to begin with. And he doesn't actually contribute his own opinion. Minor points.
his case on alan+ Show Spoiler +Overall, I thought his case on alan was reasonable, but a bit of a stretch. On June 13 2012 22:28 roflwaffles55 wrote:
This is the post that really got me wondering. How by now can you have no suspicions? There has been quite a few suspicious decisions by several people, giving you more then enough time to form a case against someone, or at least apply some pressure. At that early point in the game, I personally wasn't very suspicious of anyone, and not many suspicions had been voiced overall. Yet roflwaffles criticizes alan for not forming any cases or applying pressure. Only miltonkram and suki had previously applied pressure. roflwaffle's decision to attack alan feels arbitrary, much like HeavonEarth's decision to attack golden. On June 13 2012 22:28 roflwaffles55 wrote:
He throws around some suspicion towards Miltonkram, however not enough to constitute a case or apply any pressure, just enough to make people go filter milton and consider what he might have done, which yet again, leaves him out of the spotlight. This is a stretch. alan throws suspicion at miltonkram in order to get people to start suspecting miltonkram so that alan isn't in the spotlight? Kinda farfetch'd. In summary, roflwaffle's original case against alan wasn't terrible, but definitely didn't impress me or make him look townie.
his probing of MJ+ Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 23:18 roflwaffles55 wrote:
Hey mouldyjeb, glad to see you posting! Do you have any other evidence or reasons beyond miltons lighthearted attitude at the beginning? State them if you do, as well as any suspicions against me! Don't keep them to yourself!
Also, what are your opinions on the cases so far, like mine against alan133 and suki's against trackd00r?
I ask these because that was a fairly lackluster post when it comes to your first of the game and id like you to bring some fresh opinions to the table. Here roflwaffles probes MJ a bit and calls his first post "fairly lackluster". This is an easy post to make and puts attention on a lurky player (who I think is town). Another minor point.
backing off of alan+ Show Spoiler +This is where I start to get some significant suspicions. The only two people that originally repsonded to roflwaffle's case on alan were alan and suki. Alan posted a counteraggressive defense, and suki said she didn't find the case very convincing. So roflwaffles felt some heat on his case. On June 14 2012 01:35 roflwaffles55 wrote:
While I am completely aware that my case has several holes in it, nobody can expect an ironclad case halfway through D1. The points you bring up in the first half of your response to me continue to be ambiguous, I'm glad you started to get your legitimate opinions out there, being quiet and neutral will get us nowhere. Both of our initial posts tended to agree with the majority, but as I said, that wasn't the focus of my argument, it was the post on the suki argument that got my suspicions roused. Previously, roflwaffles said that alan was acting "quite scummy" and voted him. Now he is "completely aware that my case has several holes in it". I agree with miltonkram's sentiment that roflwaffle's inital case on alan was reasonable, and it is a bit odd how he backs away from it here. On June 14 2012 01:35 roflwaffles55 wrote:
Yes, I did vote you, but you forget that votes are easily removable, and the fact that you had to write a sensationalist paragraph in red text rather then just poke through the obvious logical holes in my cases convince me that you have something to lose, whether it be scum, blue, or just poor play. More suspicious statements here. His pointing out that votes are easily removeable makes him seem scared of alan. Again, he talks about the "obvious logical holes" in his cases. I didn't see any obvious logical holes in roflwaffle's case and I don't think roflwaffles did either, seeing as he called alan "quite scummy" and subsequently voted him. Finally, being coninvced that alan has something to lose "whether it be scum, blue, or just poor play" is not townie analysis. Townies are only interested in finding scum. And roflwaffles is further distancing himself from his own accusation of alan.
continues to attack alan+ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 15:03 roflwaffles55 wrote:
I'm currently waiting on Mouldy Jeb's and alan133's responses to the cases brought against them, until something convinces me otherwise, I still believe that alan133 is increasingly suspicious.
roflwaffles did some more attacking on alan, but didn't have any new reasons to be suspicious, merely stating that alan's lack of arguments is suspicious. But you could say this about many players. I'm not sure why roflwoffles "still believes that alan133 is increasingly suspicious". Also, note that he is still anti-MJ.
analyzes the danger of each potential mafia+ Show Spoiler +I find this post really scummy. + Show Spoiler +On June 15 2012 02:44 roflwaffles55 wrote:
I'm going to post as though all of these people are scum, and the impact they have a chance to make if they are left alive. I think it will give a different way of thinking about it.
Crossfire99
Sciberbia posted a convincing case on him already, and several people have posted tidbits on him, however, nobody has put the focus on him (partially my fault). Therefore, if he is in fact following the thread and trying slide under the radar of suspicion while we focus on alan133, suki, and HeavOnEarth, he is going to get away with it.
His play was very lackluster and never brought fresh reads to the table. Out of everyone, if he is scum, he seems to be one of the most dangerous to let live.
alan133
I've already tunneled the crap out of him, and his defenses have been drastic and overly reactionary. If he were left alive, I honestly think he could do a fair bit of damage as scum, just because he defends very well and seems to have people convinced as to his innocence.
HeavOnEarth
His play is quite suspicious and his accusations and suspicions lackluster at best. He could just as easily be an awful townie as scum.
Overall he's been fairly ineffectual, but if he's hiding behind a mask of confusion and bad reads, he could be an annoyance as scum later on.
suki
It would be self-serving of me to defend suki, as she took my case against alan133 and improved it, I believe in her case. But for the benefit of the doubt, let's assume she's scum. The strength or lack thereof (trapd00r case) of her cases imply that she's trying to lead the vote towards those that aren't scum.
If she is scum, she could be quite dangerous later on.
All of that theorizing on what they "could" do if they were scum being done...
I believe that the most lynchable potential scum right now would be Crossfire99. I understand that there are already votes on HeavOnEarth, but if he really is that incompetent at bringing cases to the table, as a scum, why would he try to post them? He is suspicious to me, but not as suspicious as Crossfire. Unless he responds to the accusations in a convincing and collected manner soon, I strongly believe that he should be lynched.
##vote Crossfire99 This kind of analysis is just really useless. Our goal isn't to lycnh players that would be dangerous if they are scum. On the contrary, it is to figure out who actually is scum. But roflwaffles doesn't do that here. Previously, roflwaffles had said nothing about crossfire, but now votes crossfire because he is the most "lynchable" and potentially dangerous scum. These are pretty bad reasons, and Crossfire had some serious suspicion on him already. roflwaffles is just jumping on the bandwaggon with poor reasoning. roflwaffles is all over the place with HeavOnEarth. He describes HeavOnEarth as "quite suspicious", but says he could just as easily be an awful townie. On June 15 2012 02:47 roflwaffles55 wrote:
Oh shit, forgot about Mouldy Jeb.. obviously he's an easy lynch to make, and if we can't come to a majority then we should just get rid of him barring some legitimate posts on his part. Continues to support a lynch of Mouldy Jeb. Overall, this recent activity is quite scummy imo.
further scummy defense of HeavOnEarth+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On June 15 2012 05:09 roflwaffles55 wrote:
I noticed already that his play was scummy, however I felt like it was the easy way out, I was hoping to nail a more influential scum D1, but I guess that's just new player optimism... If he flips scum, I'm not sure what kind of information we're going to gain from it as his posts don't seem to link him to anyone.. and if he flips town then all we really know is that he was a poor townie.
I'll go with the flow because he's fairly blatant with his scumminess (real word?) but I'd like to keep an eye on Crossfire, as well as keeping Mouldy Jeb in mind for a D2 lynch.
##unvote Crossfire99
##vote HeavOnEarth
I'm not sure if I'll be on tonight, I'll do my absolute best to be on in case there's a swing of opinion. This just reads as a blatantly scummy defense to me, knowing that HeavOnEarth is mafia. He is trying to say that he suspected HeavOnEarth all along, but that he was hoping for something more (???) He also questions the information we get from a HeavOnEarth lynch, which is a secondary issue. If he is scummy, we should lynch him. Finally, he attributes his difference of opinion to "new player optimism" which is a scummy excuse.
In summary, I think there is a pretty good chance roflwaffles is scum, based mostly on his last couple of posts before the deadline.
I'm super tired now and going to sleep. I'll be pretty busy for the rest of night phase, so you probably won't see much more posting out of me this night. But I'll have plenty of time to dedicate to the game this weekend, so I expect to be quite active during D2.
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@mouldy/unforgiven_ve swap
I am not sure what to think of this, I feel like it has reset MJ/unforgive's rather bad position.
Question
+ Show Spoiler +Is it cheating if I used mod's actions (modkill/player swapping) to backup my reasoning? I don't see this in the "cheating" section: I am not posting sharing mob's PM, just pointing out a very visible action mod did.
I removed my reasoning as it potentially breaks the rule, but you should be able to see what I was going to talk about.
@sciberbia
I find his night post similar to the day post: giving advise. I am fine with the day post, but not with the night post
Keep in mind the mafias game that I have played (outside TL, non forum-ish), discussions is not allowed right after the role flip. I may have overlook the "neutrality" on sciberbia's suggestions.
That said, my idea was night action should never be discussed as it might reveal a blue. The only information that mafia does not already have is who among us has a power role. I also find the role block claim suggestion weird, especially he mentioned there is may or may not be a Jail Keeper and we can't differentiate which is what.
This made me look through his filters again.
His filters reveals that he has been focusing a lot on suki's cases, and has been defending me against her case. He is also having doubts on suki, but is with a valid reasoning.
sciberbia is also one of the few who brought our attention to heavOnEarth. At that time, almost no one else paid attention to him, and I think there is no reason to "bus" a scum buddy in this early part of the game, unless it is a really (to avoid confusion) "high level mind game".
I looked through his filter and seems like there is nothing else fishy about him, other than the night post, his analysis seems objective and clear, and is generally helping town. I know I am inconsistent with me deeming him "suspicious" in my summary post, but I did not read in detail at that time and now I actually think he is neutral if not, town sided for calling out a good read.
sciberbia is off my radar for now
@O.Golden
I find Golden carelessly friendly.
+ Show Spoiler + Reluctant to vote on
suki or alan113 at the current time, because i honestly feel like theyre clashing for the wrong reasons.
i'd be more inclined to lynch suki just because of the tunneling, however i dont feel a Mafia would be so aggressive day one (MAAAASSIVE RISK, but risk = reward?).
He don't "feel" like any of us is scum. He thinks Alan and suki is town.
Then he commented about Crossfire
+ Show Spoiler +Crossfire seems okay too me, i liked his posts. If he posted a few more like it, with about 40% more content (pulled a # out of my ass) on players and some reads/opinions on cases i'd be a happy chappy. Time will tell on this character.
He thinks crossfire is townie, until this
+ Show Spoiler +honestly i can't believe i missed sciberbia's case on Crossfire99. FML maybe i got the totally wrong read on him. Ima refresh my mind on HeavonEarth and Sciberbia and then post after i mull their feeds over a game of SOTIS. Talk soon lovers.
GauldenWahn
How are you sure sciberbia is not a scum, trying to misguide you? You seems to agree with anyone, but when someone else is questioned, you suddenly turn your Super Scum Detector towards said person.
I find his reason for voting HeavonEarth echoes from other players, while this is a non issue consider how late he is and there is nothing much to add, These sentences really bothers me.
+ Show Spoiler +On June 15 2012 06:27 O.Golden_ne wrote:
also, if we're too take a hard stance on lurking behaviour. Perhaps we can focus on someone with a smaller content count than myself? Worth a thought mang.
in regards to HeavonEarth.
In relation to my:
a) knowing i'm town.
b) Him trying to bus me one the grounds of "seems like a solid case".
c) lacklustre contribution and no rebuttle to any arguments.
i feel like he see's a bandwagon forming and jumps on straight away.
#VOTE: HeavonEarth
i still maintain a #FOS on MouldyJeb
i still owe the group a comment on Crossfire99 but i honestly dont have time for it before work.
The first highlighted sentence seems to me you are trying to avoid a fight, you are afraid to stand out too much, even after being able to reply with a convincing answer for your defense, you just want it to stop right here, right now, "don't look at me". While I understand not everyone wants to stand out -
The second statement set off alarm for me. Unless neutrals are involved, everyone "knows" themselves as town. This just shows me you are constantly aware that you want to present yourself as "town".
+ Show Spoiler +comments:
i like suki's approach to the situation, she's changed it up and she's added some new content to her vote which is refreshing. We'll obviously need to keep an eye on Alan113 just because everyone needs to be pressured several times during the course of the game, i just never found him to be as scummy as say HeavonEarth is looking atm.
SOOO much angleshooting from peoples previous performances in other games. Keep it relevant is all i'm saying.
This post agree with how I painted you so far. You diverts attention to me. What did you add to that post?
- I approve suki's new post (Because it is refreshing..? How about comment on the content itself?)
- Everyone look at Alan113!+ Show Spoiler + He obviously needs a little more pressure!
But wait, what did you said a few post ealier?
+ Show Spoiler +Alan113 is now hard-tunneled by suki for the rest of the day. I'm finding this the most frustrating day one tunnel i've seen, i was indecisive regarding suki and then i saw her most recent posts and hoped to god she looked at something other than Alan113. But her argument against Alan113 here is essentially saying that he is mafia because he is defending himself. I'm finding it hard to see how Alan113 can do anything but defend himself up until this point.
You contradicted yourself saying I was being tunneled too hard and is not able to contribute when you defended me
If I overlooked anything, please point it out.
My point:
- Golden agrees easily with people - Not what I would expect from a newbie town
- Golden keeps diverting the spotlight away from him without giving much contribution.
- Golden tries to please other players, passively support cases.
O.Golden is my secondary Suspect
@austinmcc
Looking at austinmcc's filter, he seems to be playing very dis-trustingly. This strikes me as a town trait for being uncertain
of the situation.
I would like to mention that in his Lurker and broken promise post, he did not mention Heave. He also did not vote Heav. Regardless, it wouldn't change the outcome, there is no risk of a NK. His reasoning behind voting Cross instead of Heave was pretty convincing too.
austinmcc looks town to me
@suki and rolf "conspiracy theory"
Other than the reason I stated in my previous post how I over weighted suki's scum tell, I don't find her response consistence with my reading.
If they were indeed partners, I don't see any motivation behind scum suki's outburst and openly confronted me. If scum suki is scum, she would have been intentionally defending me against her buddy. She should be aware that I wasn't only attacking the ones that attack me.
Scum suki would want to stay quiet, like what rolf did. He simply did a "OMGUS", ignoring the reasoning I gave, while repeating his case with the exact same points. Suki, on the other hand, did a case with valid reasoning on me, and she was pushing her agenda on me until she got a satisfying answer. This gives me a town read on her. I would like to see other people's standing with suki.
Suki-rolf scum-buddies scenario is unlikely.
Suki's seems probable town to me
@rolfwaffle55
I will dedicate a separate post just for you. I have more than enough proof in your Day 1 play to write a decisive case on you.
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On June 15 2012 12:54 Crossfire99 wrote:
Am I going to be modkilled?
No, but please remember to vote.
On June 15 2012 19:07 alan133 wrote:
Is it cheating if I used mod's actions (modkill/player swapping) to backup my reasoning? I don't see this in the "cheating" section: I am not posting sharing mob's PM, just pointing out a very visible action mod did.
No.
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Wow, I wasn't expecting to see so much new stuff on my morning refresh. I'm glad N1 is not a silent night. I'll be posting a larger post before N1 is over, but sciberbia and alan133 are spot on with our best day 2 lynch candidate.
Scum #2: roflewaffles55
I have an idea of who #3 is too, stay tuned.
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On June 15 2012 13:25 Crossfire99 wrote:
Austin, the only thing I can say to you is that I know you will hold me accountable and make sure I post good stuff after I'm done with what I get done tonight. Hopefully I'll make it to day 2, so that you can see I'm trying. I also implore you consider that you might be getting a lot of your certainty and strong feelings on me from our last game. Try to look past that game, and look how I'm playing this game.
Sorry to hear about the accident; hope you're not injured.
I'm certainly getting some of my feelings from last game , but there IS a big lack of contribution so far this game. More than willing to hold you accountable moving forward.
Will be looking back over things while at work. So far rofl is looking pretty red, and, while I want to look it over again, that most likely means that we're looking at MJ/unforgiven as town and possibly alan as town. Not enough pressure on MJ to look bus-y, looks more like trying to get everyone riled up over an easy target.
And, just because it looks like it may become a topic of conversation, that night action talk doesn't seem suspicious to me. Those are two normal things - call vigi shots so we know where the KP came from and can confirm some people, call if you took a hit but didn't die because of medic/jk, call if you got rbed. I think ALL people who get rbed should call it, because there's no way to know the source for sure, and because I don't see too much danger in letting mafia know a JK exists. Plus there's some upside in us knowing what we've got to work with, and in mafia knowing that they have to deal with a protective role when choosing NKs, may keep them from shooting what would otherwise be their best target.
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I just came home from the office. I had some thoughts while driving home.
@blue action discussion
I am backing off my "night action discussion issue" from sciberbia. The first glance I thought it is weird for someone to post such a thing in the middle of a game, I feel like it is making blue obvious. While thinking about it I realized I failed to see this is exactly the "discuss blue strategy" in the beginning, which, while I think it is abusable by scums, I don't see why it does not benefit town.
My two cents:
@Cops should not check rolf. We have a very strong case against him already. I don't see him getting out of this.
@Medics should save more influential or talk-active players.
@Vigils should just shoot rolf, I don't see him getting out of this, so rather than wasting a lynch I suggest killing him right here right now.
@The case against rolfwaffles55
I don't have time to write a long post, basically sciberbia covered what I wanted to say. The part that gives me a 100% confidence towards rolfwaffles55 being scum #2 is this post.
+ Show Spoiler +On June 15 2012 02:44 roflwaffles55 wrote:
I'm going to post as though all of these people are scum, and the impact they have a chance to make if they are left alive. I think it will give a different way of thinking about it.
Crossfire99
Sciberbia posted a convincing case on him already, and several people have posted tidbits on him, however, nobody has put the focus on him (partially my fault). Therefore, if he is in fact following the thread and trying slide under the radar of suspicion while we focus on alan133, suki, and HeavOnEarth, he is going to get away with it.
His play was very lackluster and never brought fresh reads to the table. Out of everyone, if he is scum, he seems to be one of the most dangerous to let live.
alan133
I've already tunneled the crap out of him, and his defenses have been drastic and overly reactionary. If he were left alive, I honestly think he could do a fair bit of damage as scum, just because he defends very well and seems to have people convinced as to his innocence.
HeavOnEarth
His play is quite suspicious and his accusations and suspicions lackluster at best. He could just as easily be an awful townie as scum.
Overall he's been fairly ineffectual, but if he's hiding behind a mask of confusion and bad reads, he could be an annoyance as scum later on.
suki
It would be self-serving of me to defend suki, as she took my case against alan133 and improved it, I believe in her case. But for the benefit of the doubt, let's assume she's scum. The strength or lack thereof (trapd00r case) of her cases imply that she's trying to lead the vote towards those that aren't scum.
If she is scum, she could be quite dangerous later on.
All of that theorizing on what they "could" do if they were scum being done...
I believe that the most lynchable potential scum right now would be Crossfire99. I understand that there are already votes on HeavOnEarth, but if he really is that incompetent at bringing cases to the table, as a scum, why would he try to post them? He is suspicious to me, but not as suspicious as Crossfire. Unless he responds to the accusations in a convincing and collected manner soon, I strongly believe that he should be lynched.
##vote Crossfire99
This post screams SCUM in my face. The priority in a day 1 lynch is to discuss who is the best candidate to kill, not who is more dangerous if left alive. There is not even one, yes, not even ONE legitimate motivation for a townie to say. No. Instead, it makes a lot of sense in the scum's POV. Scums, if possible, has all the motivation to look for the most potentially dangerous townie to lynch. This is pretty much the nail in the coffin.
"Okay, lets not get away with ourselves. What if rolfwaffles55 is just making a big noob mistake."
No. This is a noob scum mistake. Besides, go through his filter if you must. He show no sigh of being town, constantly accusing people for not standing to the spotlight, but he contradicts his own policy by backing off when he gain no support for his case. He leave a case because no one supported him, not his target give him a satisfying answer.
There, thanks sciberbia for writing. It saves my time from a few hours of constant googling. I think rolfwaffle55's case is rock solid and we should start looking for a 3rd scum now.
I would like to know other people's opinion on my O.Golden's case. I was not suspicious on him until I looked closely on his filter. I would also like to see s0Lstice's 3rd scum.
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alan133,
writing in bits and pieces at work, it's coming. I want to contest one of your suggestions quickly.
Vigi, if you are out there, do NOT use your shot on roflwaffles55. Do one of the following:
1) Save your shot
2) Use it on a person you strongly think is scum #3
I feel that roflwaffles is going to be the day 2 lynch, there is no reason to use a bullet on him. He is a dead man walking.
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I guess we need to see how this night plays out, but I'm not sure why we wouldn't vigi rofls if we reach a consensus on him overnight, solstice.
Going into D2 with a pre-set candidate means we'll basically lynch with the daypost and then turn our attention to the 3rd scum that won't die for...120 hours, unless we get a shot on him/her tonight. I'd much rather we shoot our strongest scum candidate overnight, then go into D2 looking to lynch the remaining member. The vote will be more than a foregone conclusion, and if rofls happens to flip green, we'll know that we need to change our thinking.
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Yea that's a good point. Thanks austin, and sorry alan.
Go on ahead and shoot roflewaffles my dear Vigi, if you are out there
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Yes, I did vote you, but you forget that votes are easily removable, and the fact that you had to write a sensationalist paragraph in red text rather then just poke through the obvious logical holes in my cases convince me that you have something to lose, whether it be scum, blue, or just poor play.
sciberbia quoted this post and pointed out that he doesn't see any logical holes in rofl's play, and that he doesn't think rofl did either.
The part I find strange is not whether or not rofl saw 'logical holes', but how there's an implicit expectation that alan would 'poke through' those 'obvious logical holes'.
As a townie you make your cases with as few logical holes as possible so that you can put the most pressure on your target and force out information. You don't want, and certainly don't expect, those holes to be pointed out. As scum, though, you know that your arguments have holes in them, this kind of wording comes out a lot more naturally.
It's also telling that he straight up admits that his case was full of holes, which serves to ease the pressure off of him for making such a weak case (weak in his mind).
The list of potential mafia is also very strange. It also has the trait of looking like he's contributing without actually contributing anything at all.
Also take a look at this post:
You've defeated yourself in your own argument against me, with the explanation as to why I backed down on alan133. I backed down because I hadn't received any support towards my case. You also defeated yourself by saying that I'm trying to keep myself out of the spotlight, if I wanted that, I wouldn't have been the third person to post a case, let alone one I knew would net me a bunch of flak.
I made the case to put pressure on someone that was lacking any real opinion, whether because he felt that there wasn't enough data to form one, or because he was hiding from the spotlight himself.
The evidence or suspicions that you have brought up can be answered so easily I'm not sure why you didn't come up with them yourself.
I wrote down early on in my personal notes how the 'you defeated yourself' lines seemed like a very scum-like thing to do. Rather than simply defending himself, he uses Milton's words against him, to further discredit Milton. I find that full of scum motivation. After all, if you can use a player's words against them, it feels like your case is a lot stronger.
"I backed down because I hadn't received any support towards my case" is also not very townie. Town motivation is to convince people to agree with your case. If you don't get support but you still feel your points are valid, you continue to press. The fact that rofl is so concerned about having support is very fitting for scum.
All in all, I agree that rofl looks extremely scummy and the #1 candidate for vig shot or Day 2 lynch.
It seems we have reached a strong consensus on who scum #2 is. Before the night is over, I think we should start talking about other candidates for the day 2 lynch to gain a more broad discussion before the night is over. In particular, I would like to ask for opinions on my case against trackd00r.
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Remember to send in all night actions to both hosts!
Especially important today since I will be the one doing the daypost. (And I havent recieved any yet)
MJ will be modkilled/replaced (probably replaced)
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On June 15 2012 08:27 prplhz wrote:
Moldy jeb is being replaced by unforgiven_ve. 12 alive and it takes 6 to lynch.
On June 16 2012 00:53 zelblade wrote:
MJ will be modkilled/replaced (probably replaced)
?
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lol just ignore that in that case ^^
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Been following the thread from work. It seems we are all in agreement that roflwaffles is quite scummy. Just want to say that I fully approve of vigi shooting him. It's pretty likely he flips red and I'd rather just see the flip and move on rather than having our discussion stagnate for two days. Also, it is a really good shot that vigi is guaranteed to be able to get off without being NK'd.
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Sup guys, just got my role, im player now
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edbwop: *a player..
is kinda hard to get the pulse of the game after 10pages but i will do my best. I a vanilla btw
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also, congratz on getting the GF at D1 ...
Something i think is very basic, i will look at the last persons who voted for Heavonearth, seeing as Bussing at this stage of the game is ridiculous l guess at least tried to divert town's attention to someone else
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In case i die, my 2 "best" reads (so far) are austincc and roflwaffles55.
They were trying to push a lynch on Crossfire, seeing as this wasnt working they decided a Bus from roflwaffles55 and austin will kept his target "just in case".
We still have 6 more hours till night ends right?
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@Unforgiven
Welcome to the game! Yes, night ends in about 6 hours.
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Remember to get all night actions to both me and zelblade. Deadline in less than 6 hours.
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Alright so there aren't many fish in this sea. The two bad ones are roflewaffles55 and suki.
Roflewaffles55
I won't rehash. If you are still not convinced go have a look at sciberbia's and alan's cases. This is a done deal in my mind.
Suki
She learned a lot from her first game as scum, and it showed this game. She looked pro-town enough for me to set her aside in favor of other endeavors. That said, there is plenty of incriminating evidence in her filter to be had. I'll organize this as best as I can.
Let's look at how she has been going after the town win condition:
Her case on trackd00r:
+ Show Spoiler +She divebombs the thread with this accusation as her first post, and then in short order backs down from it when it doesn't gain any traction. On June 14 2012 00:06 suki wrote:
As has been pointed out, the contradiction isn't as severe as I initially thought it was.
##unvote trackd00r
I thought at the very least I could rouse a response from trackd00r, however my case was too weak and I feel that no useful information can be gleamed from people simply agreeing on its flimsiness. On June 14 2012 13:21 suki wrote:
Quite simply you (and several other people after you) answered your question. The motivation is to get the ball rolling some way, any way. I feel I failed a bit in that regard as my attack was so full of holes that there hardly was any discussion developed from it, but it was made with good intentions. On June 14 2012 00:06 suki wrote:
My case on trackd00r was/is a flop, and up until your vote on alan no one has really pointed out anything suspicious about any other player On June 14 2012 13:36 suki wrote:
@sciberbia
I think a lot of your argument stems from the impression that I was absolutely sure trackd00r was scum. I definitely worded my post that way on purpose, in spite of knowing my case wasn't solid.
I was genuinely surprised that my case was as weak as it was. Basically one good post from you was strong enough to let everyone basically say 'yeah, I agree.' My comment that 'at the very least I could rouse a response from trackd00r' was because I thought even if my case was really weak, I could aggravate an interesting reply from trackd00r, but it didn't.
Regarding the contradiction, and the comment that the contradiction isn't as severe as I thought it was. It's simply not taking the time to really think about the topic, after reading the rebuttals and being disappointed. There is no contradiction, it was just me being careless with my choice of words.
Actually, the offhanded and subtly confident way he deflected my attack is a townie point for him in my book, so as it stands I don't suspect trackd00r at all. On June 14 2012 13:36 suki wrote:
As for opening the game, I posted my policy post after the accusation because I wrote the accusation first. I did want to start the thread off boldly, I'll give you that. Look at how she dances around. She explains what was going through her head in 3 different ways: -I knew the case was weak when I posted it -I didn't know the case was weak until people told me after I posted it -I thought my case may have been weak, but I was just trying to get the discussion going. Also that last quote is scum-slip. Sciberbia pointed it out earlier. A townie has one agenda: finding scum. Scum have several agenda: stay alive, sow confusion, cause chaos. Admitting to adhering to an agenda of aggressiveness for it's own sake is very scummy. Suki has addressed this point, calling it WIFOM. Minus her comment on the matter, it would be WIFOM. It is her stated reason for wanting to appear aggressive that makes it a scum-slip instead. She has returned to trackd00r recently, and I'll address that later.
Her case on alan133:
+ Show Spoiler +She starts out defending him from her scumbuddy, naturally. Frankly, what she says is right, so it's whatever. After alan defends himself, she goes on the attack. Her case was not a bad one. You could find in a lot of games a townie making a case using the same type of ammunition. That said, there is really only one strong point, and that is his knee-jerk defense. The rest is that he accuses his accusers, and his neutrality on day 1 I advise you to go look at it for yourself, and notice her vigor. She really goes after this read.
As we start approaching lynch time, the people who joined her on being suspicious of alan133 begin changing their minds (me being one). HeavOnEarth was increasingly looking like the day 1 lynch. She drops her read on alan133 like it's hot, and commits to bussing her teammate. This is how I can tell she learned from her first scum game. She parrots the reasons for pardoning alan133 pretty effectively, and actually does some grunt work by adding to the case on her teammate before jumping aboard. The fact of it is though, even after all of that she looks like a shapeshifter. She's very aware of what is making her look town and adjusts accordingly. Trackd00r doesn't look scummy? Get off trackd00r. Alan133 is looking town? Get off alan. HeavOnEarth is looking scummy? Get on HeavOnEarth.
Back to trackd00r:
+ Show Spoiler +Remember this first On June 14 2012 13:36 suki wrote:
Actually, the offhanded and subtly confident way he deflected my attack is a townie point for him in my book, so as it stands I don't suspect trackd00r at all. Following the lynch of her 1st teammate, and the certain death of her 2nd teammate, she is back to full throttle on trackd00r, with no in between. There is a lot of effort in this new case. There's a few things I want to point out: On June 15 2012 14:01 suki wrote:
He targets Crossfire. At this point Crossfire is under pressure by austin, roflwaffle, Milton, and sciberbia. Golden and I have been the ones backing crossfire up. Here is her 'backing Crossfire up.' On June 15 2012 00:06 suki wrote:
Crossfire99:
I spent a lot of time trying to figure out if he is scum or not. Looking into the filter of his two previous games, I found that his posting style is more or less the same.
In game 1, he rolls blue and lurks quite hard. He states out of game reasons for lurking, but he plays more or less non-commital, pointing out suspicious behavior but not really heavily pressuring anyone.
In game 2 as mafia, he starts out the game by doing two things. First, he posts a defense of a townie that had come under scrutiny. Second, he immediately starts pointing out errors in one particular person's posts. He actually tunnels this person for the entire Day 1 and only just fails to get him lynched. He survives for the whole game without really being under fire and mafia wins the game.
In this game I see a lot of policy talk, a lot of guidance talk, and hardly any pressure at all. I find it quite different from his previously successful mafia play. In addition, his helpful tone is quite present in the mafia QT from the previous game, which makes me feel more inclined to think he's actually trying to help, despite his posts not really pressuring or helping town much.
Basically, his meta has changed from his last scum game, and it's changed in a confusing way, and he isn't using the tactics that lead him to a win in the previous game. I'm waiting for more contributions from him before deciding whether I think he's scum or not. To me that looks like: I don't know.I'll go through her summarized points. On June 15 2012 14:01 suki wrote:
I've gone through trackd00r's play in detail, now I'd like to summarize the points and explain why each point is suspicious.
1. Soft aggression vs Mouldy early on but later says he's not convinced. Slightly important point because Mafia want to avoid all targetting the same people.
2. Goes after Crossfire and Golden. Crossfire was a sort of easy bandwagon since so many players were after him. The Golden push is suspicious because so few people targeted him, one of whom was HeavOnEarth.
3. Does not comment on HeavOnEarth at all until the very very end. Definitely scum motivation for avoiding this. trackd00r was around back when s0lstice first started his push on HeavOnEarth. That was when trackd00r was pushing his cases against Crossfire and Golden.
4. His cases are all weak. He never points out scummy play despite singling out the three people who he would push for a lynch. His arguments are weak and consist of not contributing and not playing 'satisfactorily'.
There's no townie motivation that late in the day to simply target people for unsatisfactory play, as opposed to finding scummy play. There is plenty of scum motivation to try to find something, anything, to attack, while not putting themselves fully on the radar.
5. He bandwagons at the last minute on HeavOnEarth. A pointless move. His analysis is flaky. He says, "I must admit that he looks suspicious at this stage of the game." 1- Being undecided on Mouldy was not weird, because his filter was empty. 2- Newb townie making the wrong reads. Hell I've pushed Golden myself when I was town, his play was similar to this game. Him being on Crossfire99 is a point, as that movement ran counter to a scum lynch. 3- Yup he came late to HeavOnEarth. Possibly scummy. Also possibly busy town. 4- Weak arguments can be scummy. They can also be newb town. Just ask our newcomer Unforgiven, who made some kick-ass reads but couldn't argue them effectively. 5- Again, being late could be scummy, but also busy townie. At that point, everything that there was to say on HeavOnEarth was said. He agreed, so he said so. The case feels contrived, trumped up. I invite you to read it and see if you agree.
Concerning her teammates:
+ Show Spoiler +On June 15 2012 00:06 suki wrote:
About HeavOnEarth:
HeavOn's attack against Golden is weak, and his offhanded comment on MouldyJeb is simplistic. His points against Crossfire are thought out and straightforward.
While he has not taken a strong stance against anyone, he's also not been wishy washy. He's also kind of aggravating, mocking and provoking MJ and golden while waiting for their responses. He hasn't contributed much, especially in the way of the major cases of the day, which is a big point against him. I feel HeavOn isn't as suspicious as people are making him out to be, and am waiting for his response on topics such as me, alan113 and crossfire before making a decision. This is a non-opinion opinion. She lists points for and against, dances around a hard stance. This is what scum looks like when they talk about their teammates with no public opinion to go off of. Remember that shapeshifter thing I was talking about? She goes from 0 to 60 on this guy, when the thread was telling her it was time to. Add another: she busses the shit out of her other teammate roflwaffles just after the paint dries on target painted on him.
Summary:
+ Show Spoiler +She made a big blunder early game with her first case, contradicting herself and retreating from it as if it was leprous. Following that, she basically bounces around like a ping-pong ball, based on the current temperature of the thread. She is aggressive when she feels it's safe, and withdraws when it's not. All-in-all I feel she played a pretty good game, but the evidence is still bountiful.
disclaimer:
+ Show Spoiler +I know others have been on Suki's case, in my haste I didn't have the time to cross-reference what I'm regurgitating and what's new. I'm gonna have a look now that I'm done typing this, and I hope everyone else re-reads other's cases on suki as well. Off-hand I know sciberbia, milton, and alan have posted things on her.
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Welcome to the game Unforgiven!
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I was studying the pattern of FoS-ing and voting.
@Crossfire
I love your analysis post on who voted Heave. I hope you can do one based on Heave and rolf's actions, FoSes and votes too. I did a quick look myself, but I think it will take too much time for me to write it out, and it is going to be really hard to read anyway. I think we can used this to rule out bad townie play from scummy methods.
@Unforgiven
Welcome!
Given that Heave is Godfather, and rolf being second scum, their actions suggests MJ was simply being a very bad town player. I suggest people reread their filters
@me on Golden
Based on the patterns of both scums, I lowered my suspicion towards Golden. To refute my own point about trusting me and suki, there are already a few posts ahead of him indicating our innocents. I still don't like how he changes his judgement based on other people's opinion. For now, I want to rule him out because it is inconsistent with heave's and rolf's motives.
@suki on trapd00r
I do not have time to evaluate trapd00r's filters and it is really late now. Upon quick investigation, I somehow found something that I never really pay attention to before.
On June 13 2012 23:48 alan133 wrote:@trackd00r Show nested quote +
Looks like you intented to write something else about me, but a single post of S0lstice made your opinion change quite quickly, very quickly IMO.
This is a weird speculation, as there is no indication nor proof I was not doing otherwise. I guess there is no way to say "I swear I was backing you up even before I read anything else!!111", but oh well. I did edit my post after I saw ss0lstice's post, mostly shortening what was already mentioned by ss0lstice, as most of my points were agreeing with him.
Expand quote to see trackd00r's attempted to put words into my mouth. Rolf bandwagoned later.
If rolf and track are really scums, I feel like that picked a wrong target.
It is 3:14 am here and I am going to bed. I will most likely be back after the day post, so just in case I die, here is my current view and hopes for future town direction.
I think rolfwaffle55's case is decisive. Tomorrow there will be a kill so if rolf was not shot, please evaluate that kill pattern. Who did they went for, what was their stand. Think about if they were trying to push a victim's misread before he die. Think of all the possibilities, and if there are too many clashing possibilities from both sides, skip it. It won't lead you anywhere.
I hope crossfire can contribute by evaluating HeavE's and Rolf's actions in day 1. I hope suki can continue to pressure trackd00r the way she pressured me. I hope rolf dies in a night kill
Stay focus on getting the last scum, don't throw out FoS all over the place, work together and analyse one player at a time, and we should be on our way to an "Overwhelming Town Victory"
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This is my defense @ suki's case
On June 15 2012 14:01 suki wrote:
I've gone through trackd00r's play in detail, now I'd like to summarize the points and explain why each point is suspicious.
1. Soft aggression vs Mouldy early on but later says he's not convinced. Slightly important point because Mafia want to avoid all targetting the same people.
2. Goes after Crossfire and Golden. Crossfire was a sort of easy bandwagon since so many players were after him. The Golden push is suspicious because so few people targeted him, one of whom was HeavOnEarth.
3. Does not comment on HeavOnEarth at all until the very very end. Definitely scum motivation for avoiding this. trackd00r was around back when s0lstice first started his push on HeavOnEarth. That was when trackd00r was pushing his cases against Crossfire and Golden.
4. His cases are all weak. He never points out scummy play despite singling out the three people who he would push for a lynch. His arguments are weak and consist of not contributing and not playing 'satisfactorily'.
There's no townie motivation that late in the day to simply target people for unsatisfactory play, as opposed to finding scummy play. There is plenty of scum motivation to try to find something, anything, to attack, while not putting themselves fully on the radar.
5. He bandwagons at the last minute on HeavOnEarth. A pointless move. His analysis is flaky. He says, "I must admit that he looks suspicious at this stage of the game."
Trackd00r has been noncommital, he's been weakly targetting people for playing unsatisfactorily as opposed to playing scummy. He went for the easy target of Crossfire, and you can argue he tried to push a bandwagon on Golden with HeavOn. He refused to comment on HeavOn, and comes back at the last minute to appear like he's supporting town by voting against HeavOn as the last, and wholly unnecessary vote.
Going point by point:
1) Your argument about that says ''target the same people is wrong''. It varies from game to game, from context to context. In my first game, for example, I was town (bad played >.<) and in the third day pretty much 3 of the mafia players went against me, even though they lacked of anyone else's support.
About mouldyJeb case, it was indeed suspicious, then I backed off my pressure to him because I considered that it was just confusing bad town play. Anyways, unforgiven has replaced him, so now we can see the same role but with hopefully understandable posts.
2) I don't get what you are trying to say here. You say that I go after crossfire because it was most affluent case, and then I go after golden because it had a few followers. Well, what player should you think I just push then? Because, those 2 conditions you mentioned are opposite one each other. I don't see any other option.
3) About heaven, I didn't really put a lot of attention to him. After quite a few people pushed the case, more logic I found on it. I didn't even had a read on him. Anyways, I was expecting to post some more, since in that time, his pressure against golden was quite interesting.
4) That's how I judge D1. People who don't actually contribute much anything, having the potential to give more elaborated opinions, are the ones which I wanted to push.
About my play, I tried to do some questions, that didn't really get me to nowhere. I have to admit that my cases are weak, but again, that doesn't mean I'm mafia.
* Trying to contribute is town play.
* Appearing to contribute is mafia play.
5) You are basically underestimating the power of a vote. I want to emphasize your statement ''and wholly unnecessary vote''. Why do you think is was not necessary? For town, every vote counts. Just imagine, like a mafia massive vote switch in the last minute. Or, What If golden forgot to format his vote and it wasn't counted in? Any situations should be considered.
Oh and by the way, I think you say that the vote was so unnecessary because you were 100% sure that Heaven was mafia.
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EDIT: The quote did not include my original quote. Here is a better picture.
I wrote:
I started writing before I refresh and saw s0lstice's post. As he already pointed it out, there are no contradictions between the two statements. trackd00r merely states that NL is bad unless it is a "serious" mislynch in both highlighted sentence. If I am missing something, please correct me.
On June 13 2012 23:48 alan133 wrote:@trackd00r Show nested quote +
Looks like you intented to write something else about me, but a single post of S0lstice made your opinion change quite quickly, very quickly IMO.
This is a weird speculation, as there is no indication nor proof I was not doing otherwise. I guess there is no way to say "I swear I was backing you up even before I read anything else!!111", but oh well. I did edit my post after I saw ss0lstice's post, mostly shortening what was already mentioned by ss0lstice, as most of my points were agreeing with him.
Cheers.
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Alan I think you were right from the very beginning. Maybe not your reasoning, but your conclusion ;D
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First, my defense of s0lstice's case against me
Look at how she dances around. She explains what was going through her head in 3 different ways:
-I knew the case was weak when I posted it
-I didn't know the case was weak until people told me after I posted it
-I thought my case may have been weak, but I was just trying to get the discussion going.
It's a matter of degrees. I pushed my case against trackd00r so early on day 1, I wasn't expecting it to be that strong. At the same time, I wasn't expecting it to be so weak that everyone can just say 'I agree that the case has no merit'.
Thus, I knew the case was weak. I thought it may be weak but I was trying to get the discussion going. I didn't know the case was as weak as it was until after I read the responses. I see no contradiction or 'dancing' here.
It is her stated reason for wanting to appear aggressive that makes it a scum-slip instead.
Wanting to start the thread off boldly is a scum slip as much as wanting to get discussion rolling ASAP is a scum slip.
Her case on alan133:
Your analysis comes down to, my case wasn't bad. I really went after the read.
When I switched my vote you said I drop the case like it's hot. I clearly stated the reasons for dropping the case, and it makes no sense for me, as town, to go after alan who started acting in a way that negated my case against him.
She parrots the reasons for pardoning alan133 pretty effectively, and actually does some grunt work by adding to the case on her teammate before jumping aboard. The fact of it is though, even after all of that she looks like a shapeshifter. She's very aware of what is making her look town and adjusts accordingly. Trackd00r doesn't look scummy? Get off trackd00r. Alan133 is looking town? Get off alan. HeavOnEarth is looking scummy? Get on HeavOnEarth.
Adding the case to my 'teammate' by bussing him is a funny way to phrase 'finds more solid evidence against a potential scum'.
You are saying I adjust my actions accordingly to what make me look town... But the simplest explanation is that I am town, and I'm acting like a town should.
I pressured both trackd00r and alan, and backed down when I found my cases weren't valid anymore. I did my research on HeavOnEarth and voted him based on my own reads.
Following the lynch of her 1st teammate, and the certain death of her 2nd teammate, she is back to full throttle on trackd00r, with no in between.
This is consistent with my playstyle this entire game.
Here is her 'backing Crossfire up.'
...
To me that looks like: I don't know.
Rather than calling his behaviour suspicious, I gave a null read (pending further information), where I rebute some of the arguments against Crossfire and state that he's not playing like he did the previous game as Mafia. I also noted that his helpful tone was consistent with his helpful tone in the mafia QT, 'which makes me feel more inclined to think that he's actually trying to help'.
Regarding my current case on trackd00r, four of my points you said 'could be scummy, could be newb/busy town'. You call it a contrived case yet you admit that my points can be seen as scummy. A decent scum isn't going to make one big mistake, they're going to make a bunch of small mistakes that all add up later. The fact that I can find so many examples of possibly scummy behaviour, but no real actions that have good town motivation is suspicious. I'd rather call him out on it than just assume he's a noob town.
Also:
4- Weak arguments can be scummy. They can also be newb town. Just ask our newcomer Unforgiven, who made some kick-ass reads but couldn't argue them effectively.
The difference between Unforgiven and trackd00r is unforgiven had no reservations about labelling people as scum and pressuring them. He just couldn't or wouldn't explain his thoughts. Trackd00r did not call out any of his three primary targets for scummy or suspicious behaviour, and then conceded that HeavenOnEarth was suspicious at the very end of day 1.
This is a non-opinion opinion. She lists points for and against, dances around a hard stance. This is what scum looks like when they talk about their teammates with no public opinion to go off of.
Remember that shapeshifter thing I was talking about? She goes from 0 to 60 on this guy, when the thread was telling her it was time to. Add another: she busses the shit out of her other teammate roflwaffles just after the paint dries on target painted on him.
I was busy with my case against alan at the time, and a quick read over his filter didn't ring any warning bells.
I have nothing to say on roflwaffle. You can call it bussing or you can call it agreeing with a well-presented case.
Summary:
She made a big blunder early game with her first case, contradicting herself and retreating from it as if it was leprous. Following that, she basically bounces around like a ping-pong ball, based on the current temperature of the thread. She is aggressive when she feels it's safe, and withdraws when it's not. All-in-all I feel she played a pretty good game, but the evidence is still bountiful.
Did not contradict myself. I do not think I blundered.
I did not bounce around. I analysed the game and based on my judgement I focused my attention on the one person I believed was the most scum, and I didn't let off until I was convinced otherwise.
The only evidence against me is from viewing my actions from a biased point of view. I've played a strong town game, and you're trying to spin it like I'm playing a strong mafia game by playing a strong town game.
As for trackd00r's self defense
1) Your argument about that says ''target the same people is wrong''. It varies from game to game, from context to context. In my first game, for example, I was town (bad played >.<) and in the third day pretty much 3 of the mafia players went against me, even though they lacked of anyone else's support.
About mouldyJeb case, it was indeed suspicious, then I backed off my pressure to him because I considered that it was just confusing bad town play. Anyways, unforgiven has replaced him, so now we can see the same role but with hopefully understandable posts.
You back off mouldy, possibly because it was just confusing bad town play, but also possibly because rofl and heavOn both were attacking him.
2) I don't get what you are trying to say here. You say that I go after crossfire because it was most affluent case, and then I go after golden because it had a few followers. Well, what player should you think I just push then? Because, those 2 conditions you mentioned are opposite one each other. I don't see any other option.
Bandwagon on crossfire is scummy. Pushing golden when heavOnEarth is also pushing him is scummy. Like you said, mafia play varies from game to game, from context to context. The fact that you bandwagon on an obvious target and also attack a non-obvious target isnt suspicious. It's that you bandwagon weakly on an obvious target, and you attacked golden weakly alongside HeavOnEarth.
3) About heaven, I didn't really put a lot of attention to him. After quite a few people pushed the case, more logic I found on it. I didn't even had a read on him. Anyways, I was expecting to post some more, since in that time, his pressure against golden was quite interesting.
A simple argument to make. Still suspicious considering all the other things you've been doing.
4) That's how I judge D1. People who don't actually contribute much anything, having the potential to give more elaborated opinions, are the ones which I wanted to push.
About my play, I tried to do some questions, that didn't really get me to nowhere. I have to admit that my cases are weak, but again, that doesn't mean I'm mafia.
* Trying to contribute is town play.
* Appearing to contribute is mafia play.
My argument is you didn't contribute at all, but you attempted to put on the appearance of contributing. In other words, mafia play. Out of everything this is the most important point.
5) You are basically underestimating the power of a vote. I want to emphasize your statement ''and wholly unnecessary vote''. Why do you think is was not necessary? For town, every vote counts. Just imagine, like a mafia massive vote switch in the last minute. Or, What If golden forgot to format his vote and it wasn't counted in? Any situations should be considered.
I'm saying you look scum for jumping on at the last minute.
Oh and by the way, I think you say that the vote was so unnecessary because you were 100% sure that Heaven was mafia.
Interesting attempt to twist my words. I never said anything of the sort.
I'm not convinced by either s0lstice's defense of trackd00r or trackd00r's defense of himself. I want to hear other people's thoughts on the matter.
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Thanks for the welcome!
to sciberbia and s0lstice, you guys being very good analyst and posters. i want you please read austincc's filter, be in his place, he is(should be) pretty confident about his posting skills, the avoiding of the Heaven issue, he kept his vote on crossfire and relys on his defense/persuassive skills.
One of you two will die tonight i think
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ebwop: i want to point out im not making a conclusive acussation on austin, i just want you guys to analize a little how he is playing.
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Unfortunately I'm out of the house for a lot of tonight. On my phone right now, don't think ill be able to make a well formed opinion on this thing. Ill say that my cursory opinion on Austin is town. He's in tl Mafia lv I believe, so his time is split. Not sure if that affects your opinion on him or not. Everyone should follow through on unforgivens suggestion and see what you think.
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night ending in 2 hours. Remember to submit actions to both hosts
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Hey guys, just got caught up on the thread. Figured I'd throw in my two cents while I've got time.
The case against roflwaffles is the closest I've seen to a slam dunk case in any of the games I've played in. There's not much I can add to it. Proceed to string him up with my blessing unless of course we have a vigi, then just shoot the poor bastard.
Not much to add in suggestions for blue players either. Just breadcrumb your night actions so we can come back to them later.
I'll have more analysis up shortly.
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EBWOP:Breadcrumb your actions right at the end of the night. That way scum don't have a chance to catch your breadcrumb before they send in their night actions.
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@Suki
On June 16 2012 05:50 suki wrote:
Bandwagon on crossfire is scummy. Pushing golden when heavOnEarth is also pushing him is scummy. Like you said, mafia play varies from game to game, from context to context. The fact that you bandwagon on an obvious target and also attack a non-obvious target isnt suspicious. It's that you bandwagon weakly on an obvious target, and you attacked golden weakly alongside HeavOnEarth.
Sorry Suki, but I don't follow your logic. Why would I attack head on an obvious target? Wouldn't it be better to leave it there meanwhile I try to look for other targets which are actually more important?
On June 16 2012 05:50 suki wrote:}
You back off mouldy, possibly because it was just confusing bad town play, but also possibly because rofl and heavOn both were attacking him.
I hope that statement was a satire of s0lstice post, because you used his exactly same logic to prove your point, which you didn't because you haven't answered it yet.
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Perhaps it's too late to say this, but I really don't agree about discussing what blues should do.
Mafia players might be using this tactic to make a blue-slip by someone. It doesn't just mean that they might have start this, but instead, they could get the information indirectly if they want.
This is bad because, the most people commenting and giving their views in the situations, the most probable that someone might leak implicit information saying he is X role.
I'm going to check all the filters again, to see who can we lynch on D2. It's been a busy week for me (unexpected) so I have to give it all now.
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+ Show Spoiler +On June 16 2012 07:50 trackd00r wrote:@Suki Show nested quote +On June 16 2012 05:50 suki wrote:
Bandwagon on crossfire is scummy. Pushing golden when heavOnEarth is also pushing him is scummy. Like you said, mafia play varies from game to game, from context to context. The fact that you bandwagon on an obvious target and also attack a non-obvious target isnt suspicious. It's that you bandwagon weakly on an obvious target, and you attacked golden weakly alongside HeavOnEarth.
Sorry Suki, but I don't follow your logic. Why would I attack head on an obvious target? Wouldn't it be better to leave it there meanwhile I try to look for other targets which are actually more important? As mafia it makes sense to attack a target who is under suspicion by several players. I'm not sure what you mean by looking for targets which are more important. Show nested quote +On June 16 2012 05:50 suki wrote:}
You back off mouldy, possibly because it was just confusing bad town play, but also possibly because rofl and heavOn both were attacking him.
I hope that statement was a satire of s0lstice post, because you used his exactly same logic to prove your point, which you didn't because you haven't answered it yet.
The argument is basically that its easy to pick out scum motivation with this play.
I just realized something. Regarding mouldyjeb, your first and only post about him pre-lynch was, "Anyways, I can't tell if this is scum play or just plain bad town play". In your defense against my recent case against you, you reiterated this saying "I considered that it was just confusing bad town play".
But your case against crossfire and golden was that they hadn't "brought anything new to the table", that their opinions were nothing more than an "influence from other players". That basically their play was 'unsatisfactory'. Why then, would you list crossfire and golden as lynch candidates, and not Mouldy who you clearly said and reiterated was playing confusing bad town play?
I originally made the point to point out possible scum motivation, but delving further, I find this inconsistency really suspicious.
Maybe you can chalk this up to noob town play on your part? You simply forgot that you found Mouldy's play confusing and bad when you were writing your 'unsatisfactory' cases against Crossfire and Golden? (While also forgetting to post your case on me, I might add)
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Woops, I screwed up the quotes. Let me repeat the entire thing here with the fixed quotations:
+ Show Spoiler +On June 16 2012 07:50 trackd00r wrote:@Suki Show nested quote +On June 16 2012 05:50 suki wrote:
Bandwagon on crossfire is scummy. Pushing golden when heavOnEarth is also pushing him is scummy. Like you said, mafia play varies from game to game, from context to context. The fact that you bandwagon on an obvious target and also attack a non-obvious target isnt suspicious. It's that you bandwagon weakly on an obvious target, and you attacked golden weakly alongside HeavOnEarth.
Sorry Suki, but I don't follow your logic. Why would I attack head on an obvious target? Wouldn't it be better to leave it there meanwhile I try to look for other targets which are actually more important?
As mafia it makes sense to attack a target who is under suspicion by several players. I'm not sure what you mean by looking for targets which are more important.
Show nested quote +On June 16 2012 05:50 suki wrote:}
You back off mouldy, possibly because it was just confusing bad town play, but also possibly because rofl and heavOn both were attacking him.
I hope that statement was a satire of s0lstice post, because you used his exactly same logic to prove your point, which you didn't because you haven't answered it yet.
The argument is basically that its easy to pick out scum motivation with this play.
I just realized something. Regarding mouldyjeb, your first and only post about him pre-lynch was, "Anyways, I can't tell if this is scum play or just plain bad town play". In your defense against my recent case against you, you reiterated this saying "I considered that it was just confusing bad town play".
But your case against crossfire and golden was that they hadn't "brought anything new to the table", that their opinions were nothing more than an "influence from other players". That basically their play was 'unsatisfactory'. Why then, would you list crossfire and golden as lynch candidates, and not Mouldy who you clearly said and reiterated was playing confusing bad town play?
I originally made the point to point out possible scum motivation, but delving further, I find this inconsistency really suspicious.
Maybe you can chalk this up to noob town play on your part? You simply forgot that you found Mouldy's play confusing and bad when you were writing your 'unsatisfactory' cases against Crossfire and Golden? (While also forgetting to post your case on me, I might add)
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Sorry guys, I got distracted and didn't leave myself enough time to get in-depth opinions out before the deadline.
We all seem pretty set on lynching roflwaffles tomorrow if he doesn't get shot tonight. I am fine with this. We need to move the discussion forward though.
I'm looking at the three players whose voting patterns look scummy at the end of D1: Golden, trackd00r, and austinmcc.
Golden- He's been playing semi-similarly to his last two games as town. It's difficult because his town play in the past looks scummy. I think I'll read him the way I should have read him last game, he's a townie that's underconfident in his reads and has difficulty expressing his opinions. I reserve the right to change my opinion on him given further evidence/information.
austinmcc- He had a read and he stuck with it. There's possible scum motivation behind that. He could've been attempting to get a mislynch on Crossfire and simply stuck with it. However all of his actions included analysis backing them up and, in my eyes, a genuine attempt at logically convincing us of his read. I'm reading that as townie.
trackd00r- Of the three his voteswitch looks the scummiest. It reminds me a lot of Xatalos's voteswitch in NMM XV in which he moved his vote "just to make sure the lynch happens." The lynch was a sure thing anyway. Anyone attempting to derail it with a ninja vote was forfeiting his/her life during the D2 lynch cycle. I'm not buying it.
To sum up, Golden and austinmcc are off my scumdar at the moment. After roflwaffles dies I'd suggest we all take a good look at trackd00r and possible scummy motivations for his play.
I'm leaving for work so I won't be around for a little while. If I'm alive come the day cycle I'll have more time to contribute since I'm finally out of classes for the summer and I only have work competing for my time. GL everybody :D
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Hey guys. I only got back to my computer about half an hour ago. Still catching up on recent posts. I quickly reread through the filters of bot suki and austinmcc, and I find suki more suspicious. But I need to study her filter more before coming to any conclusions. I haven't looked much at golden or trackd00r. If I'm still alive D2, I'll do some serious filter studying of each of these players and post more well-founded reads.
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Day 2
It was a silent night. The wind howled as the elder strode sliently to his bed.
The proceedings of the day had been terrible. News of the puppetmaster targerting the humble town of liquidpidia first came at the crack of dawn. It was said that a certain few had even been controlled by the puppetmaster. Bought over, some would say. Or perhaps the puppetmaster truly had sorcery at his side?
A meeting had been called at the town hall. Attended by the 12 wise elders of the village, they carefully planned their moves, each knowing full well the man beside him may have been corrupted. Friendships and even family ties meant nothing under the threat of the puppetmaster. Agurments broke out, and a fistfight – unheard of among the elders of the village – even sprang up. They day had slowly passed and the elders finally came to a conclusion.
Each day the elders would select one among them to be lynched. It was their way of fighting back against the puppetmaster.
I opposed it. It was madness. This was definitely what the puppetmaster wanted, watching us tear each other apart, tear each other into scraps, whilst he hid behind, laughing in the shadows. But my agurements were ignored.
The rest of the common folk were in chaos. Rumors of the puppetmaster had spread throughout tevery man in the village in a matter of hours, and they gathered outside the town hall, waiting to hear the wise words of the elders. What were they expecting? Us to calm them, us to tell them that all was fine? That it was a baseless rumor?
They certainly did not expect it when one of us stepped up, announcing our plan. The townsfolk were terrified. So was I. But one man cannot agure against eleven.
But there was hope. Be it luck, or be it divine intervention. The first lynch, as we decided to coin it, was a resounding success. Perhaps this method wasn’t one forged by the puppetmaster after all. He certainly didn’t expect one of his minions to die so quickly – for sure.
Sighing, the elder went to bed.
Mere seconds later, the door creaked open.
The elder sprang up instantly, heart pumping…. Who could it be? Visitors never came at this hour… Could it be the puppetmaster himself? No. The puppetmaster would never show his face.. not now. Not yet.
A man walked in, face twisted with an evil grin.
“It's you."
“A pity you are awake… no matter. It would be more fun killing you, hearing your screams of pain pierce this silent night. I wonder what the others would think?"
The man drew a dagger from his robe, licking it with his tounge.
“You are a hinderance to the plan of the grand puppetmaster. Tonight you shall die.”
“You have gone mad.”
The man’s grin grew even wider.
“No. I have simply attained… enlightenment. Our master has grand visions for this forsaken joke of a town. Being in the hands of the order of the 12… what a complete waste!”
“I find it exteremly surprising that you, who dedicated your life to protecting the common folk would do this. Is it that satisfying to see your life’s work ruined by your very own hands?”
“Oh I am protecting them still… just in a different way. It was a pleasure talking to you, old friend, but now it is time for you to face our maker.”
And a piercing scream filled the air. Than all was silent.
At least till the arrow flew through the night.
austinmcc the elder (Vanilla Townie) has been murdered in cold blood!
+ Show Spoiler +
roflwaffles55 the puppet (Mafia goon) has been shot!
+ Show Spoiler +
Day 2 has begun.
Deadline is 48 hours from the time of this post, 00:00 GMT (+00:00)
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oh man! I finally got killed early. Yessssssssssss
gg all, well played
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Glad I died.. I really didn't want to be scum for my first game, I had no idea what to do after day 1 haha.
gg
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gg austin .
Also...... why austin? will have to analyse further later. Just checked for the night kill (And good job on the description zelblade or whoever wrote it, there was so much suspense, I pressed the arrow key on the scrollbar down line by line in anticipation T_____T ). Now I gotta run~
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gg austin!
vigi should claim the shot no? would give us a confirmed townie
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gg roflwaffle. I know. Being scum for your first game is REALLY REALLY tough and nerve-wracking. Hope to see you around in future games.
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also yea flavor text was awesome. kudos to the author of that
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@s0lstice
I don't think it makes too much a difference whether vigi claims or not. Vigi will obviously claim if in danger of being lynched, and we will obviously believe them unless there is a cc (in which case it's gg). So the only way vigi can ever get lynched is if it comes down to 3/4 players left and the scum fakeclaims vigi. So I don't think it can possibly hurt for vigi to wait until 5/6 players left before claiming.
I think there is a very slight benefit to vigi not claiming today. The benefit is that scum has fewer good NK options.
Overall, I think it'd be very slightly beneficial for vigi to wait till 5/6 players left before claiming. But it's not at all a big deal, and if vigi judges that the knowledge that they (the vigi) is confirmed is helpful to town, I have no problem with that.
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gg roflwaffles
still haven't read actually read the daypost lol but I guess I'll go back and read it as it's gotten good reviews
and yea NK of austin is quite odd. I'll have to think about this a bit..
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crap just realized there could potentially be two vigis. So my previous thoughts about cc'ing vigi and scum fakeclaiming vigi don't fully apply. Still, I think it is most likely that there is only 1 vigi, and I don't think it really matters whether or not he claims today.
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LOL what a crazy night one. reading up on everything now, had a massive night last night lol. I'll respond to Alan113 and everyones issues with me and my careless friendliness.
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Danm, nice way to start the game! 2 mafia in one day ;D.
I guess they were afraid of you austin
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Kind of WIFOMy, but if I'm right about suki, the NK makes a lot of sense
A fair number of people have accused her, and killing one of them wouldn't make her look any better.
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The game is proceeding more smoothly than I thought, great night!
I just woke up and have something to attend to, so here is my quick thought.
@austin
I was on the fence on austin, but I will look at the kill pattern later.
@s0Lstice
VIGIL DO NOT CLAIM. There is no advantage for town to get hard confirmed townie right now, only scums benefits from that. I get rather suspicious on s0lstice, but it could be a logic flaw from a townie. I am going to look at his filter later when I am free.
I think I came to a solid analysis on my rolf + suki case, but since s0l brought it up I will do a quick review to see if I missed anything.
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Yea I don't know about you, but I got a handful of strong town reads.
If vigi claims...
scum viewpoint: a person I already know is town is now confirmed town. if there weren't any other strong town reads, then the claimed vigi instantly becomes an attractive NK target. the thing is...we have a group of strong town reads, so it makes little difference to scum that there is one more. there are already more good targets than they have KP.
town viewpoint: a person who I could not 100% confirm as town, is now confirmed town. I can eliminate the possibility that this person is scum. This leaves fewer candidates for potential scum, thus making it easier to find them.
I really don't see how you think scum benefits from the vigi claim.
The only real debate is when to claim. As we can win the game on day 2 with a correct lynch, I say now is fine. Sciberbia says later in the event that we misslynch today. The claim becomes more powerful with fewer people, though by that point the person may be reading strong town anyway.
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Just a couple of small things before I sleep.
@alan
I really wouldn't be suspicious of s0Lstice just for suggesting that the vigi claim. As he explained, it really isn't that big of a deal.
thoughts on NK (or lack thereof)
+ Show Spoiler +
I've been trying, but I can't think of any likely explanation for the mafia's choice to NK austinmcc. So I'm pretty much just going to disregard the NK.
@s0Lstice
as a point of fact, austinmcc did voice some suspicions against suki yesterday. But I don't think that is really indicative of anything anyway.
check your PM's to see if you were RB'd
+ Show Spoiler +
If you were RB'd and you don't think you were a target of the jailkeeper (not a top 2 or 3 NK candidate) you should claim it now. No reason to wait in claiming this. And it tells us that the last mafia is a roleblocker (assuming you're telling the truth)
I'm going to sleep now. I'll be going over filters and doing analysis during the day tomorrow. You can expect some posts from me on lynch candidates within 18 to 24 hours.
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@s0Lstice
I see. I missed a few things and underestimated the town benefit with a vig claim. Originally I thought scum is just going to kill off a confirmed target, but that is not really a good kill for scum considering vig is now officially a VT.
However, I think unless the vig is among the lynch candidate, or is in danger of getting lynched, he should not claim. There is no reason to claim if everyone has a strong town read on him. If a claim is made:
-If it is a fake claim, real vig should always COUNTER CLAIM.
-If there are no counter claims, I suggest we take his word for who he is, and pick another candidate for a lynch.
I also think that if there is a cop and has a guilty, out with it, if not, continue hunting.
That is enough discussion on blue's action. Unless there is anything I said is flawed, we should now concentrate on hunting the last scum.
I hope there is more post from other people
I will post my summary soon once I am done with my analysis.
EDIT: Just noticed I clicked on preview not post
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my opinion on vig role claiming is that its too late. they should have said it like 5 minutes before the day 2 post. how can we trust the person who claims now? anyone could claim it. if they said who they were shooting like 5seconds before daypost then it could be 100% confirmed they were town. so dont claim now.
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On June 15 2012 08:27 prplhz wrote:
Heavonearth:
Sciberbia
O.golden_ne
Roflwaffles55
Miltonkram
Suki
Alan133
O.golden_ne:
Heavonearth
Trackd00r
Roflwaffles55:
S0lstice
Not voting:
Austinmcc
Crossfire99
Also voting is mandatory. Moldy jeb is being replaced by unforgiven_ve. 12 alive and it takes 6 to lynch.
First day: HeavonEarth dies with the minimum 6 of 6 votes. Roflwaffle being one of them. If they could mafia would have saved him and forced a mislynch. So i think that 2 mafia WOULD NOT have voted for Heavonearth first day. It just doesnt pay to have him lynched. A NL would have benefited them so much more. So under that reasoning its my opinion that any of these people had a likely mafia flip from this point:
Astinmcc RIP
Crossfire
S0lstice
Trackdoor
Its my opinion that s0lstice is green. so its between trackd00r and Crossfire for me.
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and alan i dont see the contradiction you underlined. you were being tunnelled. when you get tunnelled by someone its incredibly hard to do anything but defend yourself for a whole day. thats what i was saying. no contradiction.
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@ Golden
Technically s0Lstice had his vote on HeavOnEarth at the time. Not that it changes much, prplhz just made a mistake in that particular votecount because of s0Lstice's FOS.
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Hi, I am going to post my agendas on the analysis I am working on.
@s0Lstice on suki - I am defending suki
@analysis on austinmcc'd death - He avoided the spotlight and looks fishy to me. Motivations for scums to kill him.
@My main FoS O.Golden_ne - friendliness, no sense of him protecting himself against Lies, and supporting evidence.
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quick reply:
@ Golden
Oh Golden, you mean this+ Show Spoiler +On June 15 2012 19:07 alan133 wrote:@ O.GoldenI find Golden carelessly friendly. + Show Spoiler + Reluctant to vote on
suki or alan113 at the current time, because i honestly feel like theyre clashing for the wrong reasons.
i'd be more inclined to lynch suki just because of the tunneling, however i dont feel a Mafia would be so aggressive day one (MAAAASSIVE RISK, but risk = reward?).
He don't "feel" like any of us is scum. He thinks Alan and suki is town. Then he commented about Crossfire + Show Spoiler +Crossfire seems okay too me, i liked his posts. If he posted a few more like it, with about 40% more content (pulled a # out of my ass) on players and some reads/opinions on cases i'd be a happy chappy. Time will tell on this character.
He thinks crossfire is townie, until this + Show Spoiler +honestly i can't believe i missed sciberbia's case on Crossfire99. FML maybe i got the totally wrong read on him. Ima refresh my mind on HeavonEarth and Sciberbia and then post after i mull their feeds over a game of SOTIS. Talk soon lovers.
GauldenWahn How are you sure sciberbia is not a scum, trying to misguide you? You seems to agree with anyone, but when someone else is questioned, you suddenly turn your Super Scum Detector towards said person. I find his reason for voting HeavonEarth echoes from other players, while this is a non issue consider how late he is and there is nothing much to add, These sentences really bothers me. + Show Spoiler +On June 15 2012 06:27 O.Golden_ne wrote:
also, if we're too take a hard stance on lurking behaviour. Perhaps we can focus on someone with a smaller content count than myself? Worth a thought mang.
in regards to HeavonEarth.
In relation to my:
a) knowing i'm town.
b) Him trying to bus me one the grounds of "seems like a solid case".
c) lacklustre contribution and no rebuttle to any arguments.
i feel like he see's a bandwagon forming and jumps on straight away.
#VOTE: HeavonEarth
i still maintain a #FOS on MouldyJeb
i still owe the group a comment on Crossfire99 but i honestly dont have time for it before work. The first highlighted sentence seems to me you are trying to avoid a fight, you are afraid to stand out too much, even after being able to reply with a convincing answer for your defense, you just want it to stop right here, right now, "don't look at me". While I understand not everyone wants to stand out - The second statement set off alarm for me. Unless neutrals are involved, everyone "knows" themselves as town. This just shows me you are constantly aware that you want to present yourself as "town". + Show Spoiler +comments:
i like suki's approach to the situation, she's changed it up and she's added some new content to her vote which is refreshing. We'll obviously need to keep an eye on Alan113 just because everyone needs to be pressured several times during the course of the game, i just never found him to be as scummy as say HeavonEarth is looking atm.
SOOO much angleshooting from peoples previous performances in other games. Keep it relevant is all i'm saying.
This post agree with how I painted you so far. You diverts attention to me. What did you add to that post? - I approve suki's new post (Because it is refreshing..? How about comment on the content itself?)
- Everyone look at Alan113!+ Show Spoiler + He obviously needs a little more pressure!
But wait, what did you said a few post ealier? + Show Spoiler +Alan113 is now hard-tunneled by suki for the rest of the day. I'm finding this the most frustrating day one tunnel i've seen, i was indecisive regarding suki and then i saw her most recent posts and hoped to god she looked at something other than Alan113. But her argument against Alan113 here is essentially saying that he is mafia because he is defending himself. I'm finding it hard to see how Alan113 can do anything but defend himself up until this point. If I overlooked anything, please point it out. My point: - Golden agrees easily with people - Not what I would expect from a newbie town
- Golden keeps diverting the spotlight away from him without giving much contribution.
- Golden tries to please other players, passively support cases.
O.Golden is my secondary Suspect
I will reformat the contradiction part
Earlier, you said:
Alan113 is now hard-tunneled by suki for the rest of the day. I'm finding this the most frustrating day one tunnel i've seen, i was indecisive regarding suki and then i saw her most recent posts and hoped to god she looked at something other than Alan113. But her argument against Alan113 here is essentially saying that he is mafia because he is defending himself. I'm finding it hard to see how Alan113 can do anything but defend himself up until this point.
But later a few post later:
We'll obviously need to keep an eye on Alan113 just because everyone needs to be pressured several times during the course of the game
There is a mental disconnection. There is nothing in between. You simply agree with people when they post a case.
I don't see how you answered my question:
and alan i dont see the contradiction you underlined. you were being tunnelled. when you get tunnelled by someone its incredibly hard to do anything but defend yourself for a whole day. thats what i was saying. no contradiction.
My premise: You started out defending me, and suggested I got tunnelled too hard. Later, you say I "obviously" should be tunnelled.
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@s0Lstice's on Suki
I agree her first post is a blunder. Pointing out contradictions when there are non, and boldly vote based on that. I also don't like the way she back out from her "meh" case against trackd00r. Someone pointed out that she said it was a "not so strong contradiction" instead of apologizing for misunderstanding.
However, her later posts were more creditable. When I wrote about a "conspiracy" between rolf and suki, rolf shys away while suki attacks me head on. Suki's case was focused on what I have said, and mentioned rolf only for factual references.
I like the way suki backed off from me. She provided a reason other than just switching votes. Also, during her tunnelling, she did asked me to do something "good" for the town to show my alignment instead of just pressuring me.
Her second case on trackd00r was more than just a "meh" case. Her reason was solid, and I suggest that you read it . I don't see why she shouldn't make a case on trackd00r just because she did a "meh" case on him before. On her crossfire post, she was making an analysis on him and is still on the fence regarding crossfire, I don't see that as a scum move. If you are not sure, there's no reason you shouldn't say so.
I don't think she bounces like a ping pong ball. Her actions were justifiable, and give her other townie traits I am putting her on the "town" side.
@Austin's death
I originally thought it was going to be either sciberbia, s0Lstice or me biting the bullet.
I don't have a strong impression on austin before the Day 2 post. I have a slight town read on him, but I remain cautious of him, and thought he had a low profile. The part where he voted Crossfire seems really weird to me. I kept wondering if this is a WiFOM, or he feels he have strong enough reasons to think Crossfire is scum, and it does not cause a NL, so why not.
I went over austin's posts without doubting his town role and realized he contributed much more than I originally thought. He didn't seem to post much, but his analysis is very strong. I thought scum's decision is bad, but now I really wish austin was among the ones that is still alive here.
Austin's main FoS towards the end of the day was Crossfire. However, Crossfire has legitimate reasons to be missing + Show Spoiler +, and Austin drop his suspicion on Crossfire.
I noticed austin's post on O.Golden_ne that no one seems to give a damn about, perhaps other than trackd00r. His case on Golden strikes me as it being similar to the case I brought about. His main argument against Golden is most of Golden wrote was fillers, despite it looks like he is contributing.
All for all, reading austin's post convinced me to re-raise my suspicion towards O.Golden_ne.
@O.Golden_ne
Despite me refuting myself previously, I would like to re-establish my case against Golden due to austin's filters. The reason that caused myself to doubt this case was due to HeavonEarth's vote on Gold, but now I dismissed it as it can potentially be a bus.
Please take a look a the spoiler on the previous post I wrote, I dumped my whole case against him there, and I don't want to spam my case
My summary for Golden is
- O.Golden_ne holds little to no doubt to anyone.
- O.Golden_ne agrees with everyone, especially on cases not against scums
- O.Golden_ne made a few long posts, but it mostly echoes what other people had said.
- O.Golden_ne does do not remember his own arguments for a case. He forgets about it in another post and made contradicting arguments. It feels like he blatantly made arguments so he can agree.
- O.Golden_ne redirects the spotlight away from himself
- O.Golden_ne gives very little insights. He merely say "I don't like this", "I feel like" without saying why. There is a more recent example: + Show Spoiler +
Its my opinion that s0lstice is green. so its between trackd00r and Crossfire for me.
All in all, O.Golden_ne looks really fishy and right at this moment, I am comfortable to lynch him
@Suki on Trackd00r
My day 1 impression on Trackd00r is that he is very careful around people and fast to accuse. I felt like this is because he don't know who to really trust. It also looks like he is trying to contribute. He posts his analysis and has his original opinion.
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Lol last time i ever stick my neck out for someone i think is town, what a retard alan. your argument that i contradict myself is invalid. I don't ever contradict myself, i purely state that no-one is ever confirmed town until they flip after saying that i think you are safe. read it again bro.
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•O.Golden_ne holds little to no doubt to anyone.
Crossfire + Trackdoor
•O.Golden_ne agrees with everyone, especially on cases not against scums
I dont agree with you.
•O.Golden_ne made a few long posts, but it mostly echoes what other people had said.
Theres somethign wrong with sharing the same opinion as another player? ok....
•O.Golden_ne does do not remember his own arguments for a case. He forgets about it in another post and made contradicting arguments. It feels like he blatantly made arguments so he can agree.
you are a retard.
•O.Golden_ne redirects the spotlight away from himself
only because i know i'm town and its a waste of time. far out man. now i'm gonna get slack for saying im town! haha the mafia will be reading this laughing his arse off.
•O.Golden_ne gives very little insights. He merely say "I don't like this", "I feel like" without saying why. There is a more recent example: + Show Spoiler +
i dont hold any undergraduate degree, i'm hardly a scholar.
my case on alan. he is a wanker.
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On June 16 2012 18:52 alan133 wrote:
@My main FoS O.Golden_ne - friendliness, no sense of him protecting himself against Lies, and supporting evidence.
alan113 proposes that we lynch anyone who is friendly.
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
Play nice! Attack the argument, not the player.
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I changed my mind on vigilante claim. Originally I thought it is bad because I think a confirmed blue will always get killed off. However, I realize one shot vigil literally a Vanilla Townie since he has no role to play.
If scum decided to go after him at night, he is taking the shot for any other potential blue.
I am the Vigilante and I shot roflwaffle55
@O.Golden_ne
Addressing to some of your answers:
+ Show Spoiler +•O.Golden_ne holds little to no doubt to anyone. Crossfire + Trackdoor I am talking about in your day 1 play, it strikes me that you treat everyone as a townie•O.Golden_ne agrees with everyone, especially on cases not against scums I dont agree with you. Town or scum, no one will agree getting themselves lynched•O.Golden_ne made a few long posts, but it mostly echoes what other people had said. Theres somethign wrong with sharing the same opinion as another player? ok.... I am saying •O.Golden_ne does do not remember his own arguments for a case. He forgets about it in another post and made contradicting arguments. It feels like he blatantly made arguments so he can agree. you are a retard. I suggest you keep clam. If there is something wrong about it you can simply say it out. Personal attacks and flipping out is a anti-town trait•O.Golden_ne redirects the spotlight away from himself only because i know i'm town and its a waste of time. far out man. now i'm gonna get slack for saying im town! haha the mafia will be reading this laughing his arse off. I agree. Scum and town will want to do this.•O.Golden_ne gives very little insights. He merely say "I don't like this", "I feel like" without saying why. There is a more recent example: + Show Spoiler + i dont hold any undergraduate degree, i'm hardly a scholar. I can actually come out with a better answer for youFirst day: HeavonEarth dies with the minimum 6 of 6 votes. Roflwaffle being one of them. If they could mafia would have saved him and forced a mislynch. So i think that 2 mafia WOULD NOT have voted for Heavonearth first day. It just doesnt pay to have him lynched. A NL would have benefited them so much more. So under that reasoning its my opinion that any of these people had a likely mafia flip from this point: I missed this.
alan113 proposes that we lynch anyone who is friendly.
On day 1, townie has 0 clue. Being friendly shows that you are not concerned about a person's alignment, that would fit a scum's PoV.
I looked at the HeavonEarth's post that have a link to one of Gold's game's filter as town. He is wrongly accused yet he replied calmly. This makes me curious: when Austinmcc questioned Gold, Gold seems slightly annoyed. Gold is obviously annoyed at my questions. I see quite a contrasting personality.
Seems like HeavonEarth's went so far to do a Gold analysis. I counted out Gold in my last last post because of this, then it strikes me: It feels like Gold is the only person HeavonEarth cares about, so I don't count out a bus.
Also, Gold, I find your analysis interesting and opened me up to a different perspective. I am waiting for more people to comment on my case on you.
Also, trackd00r, who is your FoS and what do you think of Gold?
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@ Alan and All
I actually like alan113's case.
I must say that Golden answered very aggressively to alan's case. Compared of what I see in his previous posts, he was more relaxed while giving reads and stuff.
I find his defense quite worrying: ''you are a retard.'' , ''i dont hold any undergraduate degree, i'm hardly a scholar.'' are points which clearly show a state of stress.
While it is true that anyone can get defensive, I find it quite weird that Golden is acting like this, because after we killed two mafia in just 72 hours, it must be a very pleasant and comfortable time for us. Assuming that he is town, he should be pretty happy and calm in the search of looking for the last scum, but on the other hand...
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I just wanted to pop in quickly before I head out for the day. I had planned to do analysis this morning when I woke up, but I slept in. I will be gone the whole day but after I am back I will post my thoughts.
It would be really really great if everyone who has not done so posts their response to my case on trackd00r.
And trackd00r, for your defense against my case rather than come up with another point by point rebuttal, I would like you to demonstrate your ability to scum hunt and make solid reads against who you think should be the best day 2 lynch. Like I said, the thing I find most suspicious about you is that you haven't committed to any reads of scum or suspicious behaviour. Up to this point none of your posts look like they're actively helping town. Well, it's now Day 2, THREE people are dead. There should be plenty of evidence. You have no excuse now.
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Nice shooting there tex!
Alright, check this out. I have a plan
We are in pretty good shape with only 1 scum left. Let's assume for a moment that from here on out we only miss-lynch. How many would it take before we lose?
Right now: 8 town, 1 scum
After Day 2 lynch: 7 town, 1 scum
After Night 2 kill: 6 town, 1 scum
After Day 3 lynch: 5 town, 1 scum
After Night 3 kill: 4 town, 1 scum
After Day 4 lynch: 3 town, 1 scum
After Night 4 kill: 2 town, 1 scum
After Day 5 lynch: 1 town, 1 scum (scum victory)
By my count, that gives us 3 miss-lynches to play with out of the 4 lynches remaining., assuming we don't get any medic protects.
All we have to do is make a list to lynch down. Take the four most likely candidates and lynch them one-by-one.
Here is my proposed list:
1. suki
2. O.Golden_ne
3. Unforgiven_ve
4. trackd00r
In my estimation, there is only one other candidate that might go on this list, and that's Crossfire99.
I don't put Crossfire99 on this list because he was the first to go after roflewaffles55 following HeavOnEarth's flip. I find it very unlikely that scum would do this.
Does anybody see any chance that the remaining scum isn't on that list? We have enough lynches to kill them all, and therefore I think this plan pretty much guarantees victory for town.
Everyone please tell me what you think.
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@ s0lstice
Is that list in any particular order? I mean, is it based on your reads or in everyone's cases?
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It's based on my own reads and from who other people are suspecting. The nice part about it is if you agree the last scum is in that group, the order doesn't matter. We'll hit the last scum before they reach their win condition.
I don't want this to devolve into an argument over the order. So its that order or abandon the plan. If you are on the list and are town, remember you win with town whether you are alive or dead. This should not factor into your decision.
Ask yourself if you agree the last scum is in that group. If you think they are, support the plan. Post that you are in.
If you don't think last scum is on that list, do not support the plan. We will expect an explanation why you don't think the last scum is on the list.
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@s0Lstice
+ Show Spoiler +On June 17 2012 02:42 s0Lstice wrote:
Nice shooting there tex!
Alright, check this out. I have a plan
We are in pretty good shape with only 1 scum left. Let's assume for a moment that from here on out we only miss-lynch. How many would it take before we lose?
Right now: 8 town, 1 scum
After Day 2 lynch: 7 town, 1 scum
After Night 2 kill: 6 town, 1 scum
After Day 3 lynch: 5 town, 1 scum
After Night 3 kill: 4 town, 1 scum
After Day 4 lynch: 3 town, 1 scum
After Night 4 kill: 2 town, 1 scum
After Day 5 lynch: 1 town, 1 scum (scum victory)
By my count, that gives us 3 miss-lynches to play with out of the 4 lynches remaining., assuming we don't get any medic protects.
All we have to do is make a list to lynch down. Take the four most likely candidates and lynch them one-by-one.
Here is my proposed list:
1. suki
2. O.Golden_ne
3. Unforgiven_ve
4. trackd00r
In my estimation, there is only one other candidate that might go on this list, and that's Crossfire99.
I don't put Crossfire99 on this list because he was the first to go after roflewaffles55 following HeavOnEarth's flip. I find it very unlikely that scum would do this.
Does anybody see any chance that the remaining scum isn't on that list? We have enough lynches to kill them all, and therefore I think this plan pretty much guarantees victory for town.
Everyone please tell me what you think.
I think this is a pretty good idea, but I prefer this queue.
1. s0Lstice
2. O.Golden_ne
3. trackd00r
4. -undecided yet-
I had a town read on you, but your suggestion flashed a big BIG WARNING sign.
Don't take me wrong, I think it is normal for a townie to suggest this, but this has no guarantee.
This is my scenario:
Assuming s0Lstice is scum
In this scenario, it is scum's guaranteed win.
Advantage/Disadvantage from SCUM's POV
+Scum guaranteed win
+After town agreed upon a fixed lynch target, it halts all discussions.
+I foresee chaos when villagers begin to doubt on the lynch targets, closer and closer to the end.
-Bussing early puts scum in a very bad position no matter how you look at it, but this is what he cooked up all the while, and if he managed to pull it off, this is a confirmed scum win.
-It will take 15 long days for the game to end, assuming host will not allow a change in day/night time.
The short answer is I am not a big fan of the plan. If I ever agree to go with this, s0Lsitce has to go first for a fail safe. After that, we will have to narrow down to 3 scummiest player. 3 out of 7 (1 confirmed) by random chance, a little less than 50% (42.86%), not really bad since we can also rely on town/scum reads.
Given my condition that you must die to proof your innocent, do you, s0Lstice, still want to proceed with the plan?
Others: I want to hear your opinion on this. Think about my doubts on the plan and my condition, but the priority is still to get your 3rd scum read. It is late over here, so I will go through s0Lstice's filter again tomorrow morning. My comfortable lynch targets for today is O.Golden_ne and trackd00r
See you guys.
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@ s0Lstice
I don't see a huge problem with this. If we have a cop I'd suggest he/she checks into that group and clears one of them or confirms them as scum. This would depend on our last scum not being a godfather. Assuming we mislynch today, I'd suggest that the possible cop claim tomorrow(?) and give us his reads. I haven't thought it through completely so I may be off on when our possible cop should claim. Maybe he just shouldn't claim until we're about to lynch a townie? I'm not quite sure. I'll crunch the numbers later.
Other than that my only suggestion would be to make sure our list is flexible. If the potential scum is outside of that list, they would of course give you the green light on this plan. Make sure that this list doesn't destroy our ability to effectively pressure and hunt scum. Keep other players on your radar. Keep up pressure on players.
With all that in mind I'd suggest we lynch into Golden or trackd00r. Their votes at the end of D1 were face saving gestures rather than anything that contributed towards our lynch. I honestly don't see how one of them isn't scum.
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Wow that's confusing. How does a person you have a town read on, suggesting a plan that ends in essentially a guaranteed win for town, make you change your read on me?
You did read it right?
If I'm at the top, someone gets knocked off the bottom of the list, who according to our general consensus could be scum.
I want to get inside your head and see how you could possibly suspect me at this point. I've been playing as green as a grass stain. I don't give a shit if I die, provided the new list is 1. me 2. suki 3. golden 4. unforgiven. If this is what it takes, then I'm all for it.
I'd hope that you would at least have the courtesy to feel bad after I flip green though
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Just got up.
First of all, alan has claimed vigilante. if anybody else is vigilante, you should claim NOW.
@s0Lstice
I do not like your plan. It completely disregards night actions and also prevents us from making better reads based on what people post. There's a pretty decent chance we have a cop, and we surely have at least 1 power role. I think we'd have a good chance to win with your plan, but it's not guaranteed. It's the lazy way to go, and we have an even better chance to win by continuing discussion, making reads, and getting information from night actions. Also, why are you so suspicious of unforgiven/MJ?
I'm going to start looking at the cases on trackd00r, golden, and suki.
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@Miltonkram
Other than that my only suggestion would be to make sure our list is flexible. If the potential scum is outside of that list, they would of course give you the green light on this plan. Make sure that this list doesn't destroy our ability to effectively pressure and hunt scum. Keep other players on your radar. Keep up pressure on players.
This nullify the existence of this plan. With or without this plan, we will always have a list of most scummy to least scummy player.
Also, take a look at my condition. I suggest everyone read through my view on s0Lstice's case. Its in my previous post. Unless s0Lstice agrees to sacrifice himself, this is a no go for me.
@s0Lstice
I am eager to see your answer: Will you proceed with the plan if you were to be the first to go? I will expect an explanation.
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@Milton
The one condition on this plan is that the list is non-negotiable, barring one thing. Alan is confirmed town. I'm not really sure where his head is at right now, but his support matters.
There are 3 choices here, in light of Alan's post.
List 1: suki, golden, unforgiven, trackd00r
List 2: me, suki, golden, unforgiven
...or scrap the plan
I don't care if I die if it means the plan is followed. I think it's likely also that mods will speed up days if a majority asks for it.
Whatever the DT decides to do (if there is one) can be factored in when it happens, either by removing a person from the list, or bumping someone up.
All I'm looking for is what choice you want, and that goes for everyone. The sooner we choose the better.
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@alan133
I don't think your changes to the plan hold water. Just look at s0Lstice's play this game. He's as close to confirmed town as you can get without dying and flipping green. I'll be looking through all the players who aren't on the list and seeing if I think any of them should be on it. I'll be out for a bit. When I'm back I'll read a few filters and see what I can dig up.
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@ s0Lstice
Why is the list non-negotiable? I agree with your reads but your list is also taking out some of the pressure and case-building that can cause a scum player to show his/her hand. Is there some sort of logic to this list that I'm not understanding?
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I'm in favor of scrapping the plan.
I don't see any advantage to making the list "non-negotiable" except for ending the game faster, which isn't listed anywhere as part of our win condition.
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@s0Lstice
Sorry I skipped through your answer
I sensed this could be possibly a last ditch effort to get a scum win. I got a town read on you, does not mean you are a confirmed townie. In fact, there is no way to confirm. I don't want to draw another case based on speculations, but lets be real. There is no guarantee that you are town, and if you are not, it became a guaranteed scum win.
I sincerely would not feel bad if you flip green, no offence here, but I play to win, and that's the only way to guarantee a "guaranteed town win". If anything, I'd want to make sure you win with me.
Right now, this plan the way you proposed, it only guarantees your victory, be it town or not. Of course, if you are town, I don't really mind BUT, let me repeat again, there is no guarantee, until you true colors are shown.
Also, both O.Golden_ne and trackd00r must be in the list, which was not in your revised order.
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@Milton,
Your question presumes that the scum lies outside of the 4 on my list.
Look at who we have left right now:
s0Lstice
Miltonkram
sciberbia
alan133
crossfire99
suki
Golden
Unforgiven
trackd00r
The top 4 on that list. What read do you have on them?
Concerning crossfire99, I think it's extremely likely that he is town based on the fact that he was the first to go after roflewaffles55 after heavonearth flipped. Ask yourself if scum would do this.
That leaves 4 players, for 4 lynches. The order really doesn't matter. I put suki at the top because I am pretty much convinced she is the last scum. I said the list was non-negotiable because I didn't want it to turn into a side show of who gets lynched when.
@sciberbia,
there will not be another vig claim. no scum in their right minds would claim that shot, and no townie who isn't a complete idiot would claim it if they didn't do it. if scum claim the shot it's an auto lose, because we'd lynch both people.
I'm not suspicious of Unforgiven, because I'm fairly certain Suki is scum. I included him in the list because the filter size is small, and there is a chance (albiet small) that he is scum due to the lurkyness.
Also, I play this game to win. I don't particularly care about being lazy. I proposed the plan because it will lead to a town win. That said, I really needed your support on it. I'm going to give it a little more time to hear from others, but if you continue to not be on board my suggestion will be to scrap the plan. From that point on, the only discussion on it should be if someone wants to use it in a case against me.
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It is 5:00 am here, and is supposed to wake up 3 hours later for a meeting.
@s0Lstice
I hope you can get into my head by now. Assuming sciberbia, another player that I+ Show Spoiler + have a strong town read, came out with this idea, what will you feel? Town reads are town reads, but it does not mean it is 100%. Unlike my position now, assuming no counter claim, I am a cold hard 100% town.
Also, upon re-analysing, I don't see why we shouldn't make a list of scummy players, but why fix it? You mentioned we have 3 mislynch, that gives town a big advantage right now, but what have your suggestion improved town's advantage?
Upon rethinking into your plan, it feels like it is what we are supposed to do in normal circumstances, but you suggested no more discussion after we fix it. Fix it or not, we have 3 mislynch regardless.
Is it me, or I am sensing a scum slip?.
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@s0Lstice, alan
It is unlikely, but there could potentially be two real vigilantes. I only realized this last night. So if anybody else wants to claim vigi, they should do so right now.
about the plan
I think we are all making a big deal out of nothing here. Any reasonable actions from this point lead us to 90+% town win. s0Lstice made a list of the 4 people most likely to be mafia (in his opinion), and proposed that we lynch all of them. That's pretty reasonable. But it kind of goes without saying that we will lynch the most scummy people. So the "plan" isn't really deviation from what we would do anyway. So I don't think it matters much whether we "agree" on the plan or not.
I don't think all this talk about the plan is very productive. Practically, I think it's hard enough to agree on one person to lynch, let alone four. And it's all subject to change anyway with information from night actions. So I suggest we just stop talking about the plan. Anyway, I'm just going through filters and making reads.
@alan
I highly doubt s0Lstice is mafia..
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alan are you for serious?
I've answered your questions already, first of all. I said your support is important. I said sciberbia's support was important. I said if both of your stances do not change in the near future, I would want to scrap the plan.
I said the list was fixed because if you open it up for discussion, guess what happens? We argue about the order. This is a good thing for scum.
Right now we are arguing as well, and that's a bad thing. I knew it would be apparent pretty quickly if this plan was going to work or not. It's clear I'm not getting the support from the people I needed support from to make the plan work, so I say enough. The plan is over and gone, there is zero reason to talk about it after this post unless it is involved in a case against me.
I have a few more comments on it, but I'll spoiler them ;D
+ Show Spoiler +I'm disappointed, simply put. Imagine how telling it would have been to see the reactions of the people on that list, if we had a majority supporting the idea. If I was scum in that position I'd be thinking about conceding.
Continue with your regularly scheduled programming. Like sciberbia said, that list still has uses. Everyone should make a similar list and narrow down the choices.
I'm still strongly of the opinion that suki is scum number 3. Please read my case + her defense, and have a look at her filter too of course.
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@sciberbia
I see, thanks for your input. I scrapped the case I was writing going after s0Lsice, but I am no longer confident with my town read on him.
I see you were in past game with s0Lsice, did he usually make logical flaws when he is town? He made a few in this game: vigil not Nking obvious lynch target, the "plan" he came up with.
I hope to see your read on who is the 3rd scum.
I am still debating over this, but my brain is not functioning well at this hour. Should we get everyone to claim? I want to see your thoughts.
@s0Lsice
I did not FoS you merely on your post. There are other tells, for instance: suki defended your case against her. I defended her. I am not sure if you replied, but I did not read it if there is one. If you did not. you still insisted suki is suspicious even without a good reason.
@Everyone else
I really got to go to bed now. Do not do an analysis on s0Lsice's plan for now. Focus on getting a 2nd day lynch target. Don't be afraid to list down multiple suspect even when there is only one left, of course, don't list down everyone of course, and please provide a reason.
Signing out.
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@s0Lsice
I see I misunderstood your "plan", so you were just listing down people to lynch, and say we are lynching these people over the 4 days, forcing a reaction from them. We are officially dropping this right now.
I would like to ask for your FoS, but I see you have strong opinions on suki. Please post your case on suki, or direct me to your response to her defence/my defence. I couldn't see suki as scum. I see her sudden change of stance from defending me against a scum and attacking me upon looking at my "conspiracy theory" to be an instinctive solo action. I don't see a connection between her and rolf, and her backing off me was pretty reasonable. Her changing votes to HeaveonEarth was also reasonable, given that she was focusing on me most of the day.
Good hunting.
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@ s0Lstice
I'm back and ready to devote some time to the game. In regards to the list, I realize now it was partially a ploy to get the reactions of players. While I didn't derail that as much as alan did, I apologize for screwing with your plan. Should have realized what you were doing. Dumb Milton is dumb...
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That's ok Milton. Organizing a town circle in a newb game was a tall order, I knew that before I tried. I'm comfortable at just leaving it at 'don't fix what isn't broken.'
alan133,
You are right about the crap I was telling you to do with your shot. I didn't think that through enough before posting. For what it's worth, this is only the second time I've been alive on day 2. I've had precious little experience with the ramifications of night actions. In two games I've helped lynch the medic xD So I get a 'needs improvement' on the blue stuff.
The plan, however, was logically sound. After the game I hope you'll look back at it and see how it would have worked.
Regarding suki, my case on her is not hard to find. It's in my filter. I've read her defense, and it didn't change my mind. I'm not going to continue to argue with her as I'm not going to convince her she is scum. My goal, logically, is to convince everybody else. I will work on a response to your defense of her.
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Ok I will just throw a few random thoughts about some stuff I noticed while catching up, then I'll go scumhunting.
Nice job everyone who looked into roflwaffle's filter and provided the evidence we needed to essentially "lynch" him. Good job alan actually shooting him. Nice to know one person who is confirmed town.
I noticed someone was wondering about if the last scum is a roleblocker. It doesn't matter if he is a roleblocker. As long as the rules are the same as when I was mafia last game, a mafia roleblocker can't roleblock and kill in the same night. I'll double check, though.
Can a mafia roleblocker both roleblock and kill in the same night? Is the rule different if he is the last scum?
As for this whole solstice issue (I'll only be using his plan in my case on him). He was the first person to bring attention to Heavon and the first person to vote for him. It wasn't weak pressure by the way. See my last post where I analyzed the lynch. Also, he was willing to include himself as the first lynch in his whole lynch list plan, so that pretty much confirms him in my eyes (as long as he wasn't lying, but I doubt it). So basically, I see him as a townie with a very strong scum read in suki and just desperately wants to get her lynched no matter what.
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I've gone through the case on suki, and I get the same feeling as s0Lstice; that suki is mafia and did a better job than last game of hiding it.
Here are some things I find suspicious about her:
her fist case on trackd00r and how she backed down on it+ Show Spoiler +
This has been covered already by both me and s0Lstice so I'm not going to say anything more about it here. I've found this suspicious from the start.
her stances on alan+ Show Spoiler +
Initially, she defends alan from the confirmed scum roflwaffles. Fine.
Here were the stances on alan when suki completely changed her mind on him:
aggressive: roflwaffle, miltonkram, s0Lstice
defensive: crossfire, sciberbia, trackdoor, suki
alan is now confirmed vigilante. Suki changing her mind here is pretty suspicious. She originally defended alan from roflwaffe. But after miltonkram and s0Lstice, two influential townies, jump on board against alan, suki changes her stance. With suki, miltonkram, s0Lstice, and roflwaffle against alan, he stood a chance of being mislynched.
suki's plan to get alan mislynced seems to have backfied when s0Lstice and miltonkram hop off the alan train, leaving her and confirmed scum roflwaffles as the only passengenrs. Naturally, she eventually hops off the train as well. Note that it only took her 1 post of alan, and an hour and 4 minutes, to do a complete 180 on him.
her stances on MJ and crossfire+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 13:21 suki wrote:
Regarding Mouldyjeb, I agree that he is confusing, however his filter is also quite short. His words definitely are not pro-town, but in my opinion they aren't inherently scummy either, it could just as easily be poor town play.
MJ was probably the easiest lynch yesterday. Both HeavOnEarth and roflwaffles put pressure on MJ, so it makes sense that the third scum wouldn't do the same thing. But of course she wouldn't want to be defensive of MJ either, so she could leave open the option of voting him. + Show Spoiler +On June 15 2012 00:06 suki wrote:
Crossfire99:
I spent a lot of time trying to figure out if he is scum or not. Looking into the filter of his two previous games, I found that his posting style is more or less the same.
In game 1, he rolls blue and lurks quite hard. He states out of game reasons for lurking, but he plays more or less non-commital, pointing out suspicious behavior but not really heavily pressuring anyone.
In game 2 as mafia, he starts out the game by doing two things. First, he posts a defense of a townie that had come under scrutiny. Second, he immediately starts pointing out errors in one particular person's posts. He actually tunnels this person for the entire Day 1 and only just fails to get him lynched. He survives for the whole game without really being under fire and mafia wins the game.
In this game I see a lot of policy talk, a lot of guidance talk, and hardly any pressure at all. I find it quite different from his previously successful mafia play. In addition, his helpful tone is quite present in the mafia QT from the previous game, which makes me feel more inclined to think he's actually trying to help, despite his posts not really pressuring or helping town much.
Basically, his meta has changed from his last scum game, and it's changed in a confusing way, and he isn't using the tactics that lead him to a win in the previous game. I'm waiting for more contributions from him before deciding whether I think he's scum or not.
Crossfire also stood a danger of being mislynched D1, and both confirmed scum pushed for a crossfire lynch. So it also makes sense that the third scum wouldn't want to be on that same bandwaggon. Suki kinda defends crossfire, but concludes that she is not sure. This makes sense for a mafia: softly defend someone who will be mislynched, but leave yourself the option of voting him.
scummy defense of HeavOnEarth+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On June 15 2012 00:06 suki wrote:
About HeavOnEarth:
HeavOn's attack against Golden is weak, and his offhanded comment on MouldyJeb is simplistic. His points against Crossfire are thought out and straightforward.
While he has not taken a strong stance against anyone, he's also not been wishy washy. He's also kind of aggravating, mocking and provoking MJ and golden while waiting for their responses. He hasn't contributed much, especially in the way of the major cases of the day, which is a big point against him. I feel HeavOn isn't as suspicious as people are making him out to be, and am waiting for his response on topics such as me, alan113 and crossfire before making a decision. First of all, she only comments on HeavOnEarth after being explicitly asked by s0Lstice. Then she kinda soft defends him and delays making a decision. Here were the stances on HeavOnEarth when she finally decides to bus him: - aggressive: s0Lstice, sciberbia, miltonkram, alan, roflwaffles (kinda) - defensive: austinmcc She could certainly see the writing on the wall by that point. And she also starts to accuse him around the same time that roflwaffles decides to bus him.
one of her comments on me+ Show Spoiler +On June 15 2012 00:38 suki wrote:
I'm confused why sciberbia would be so suspicious of me. Perhaps its bias from the previous game when I was mafia, but I don't feel I've been playing in a scummy way. This quote struck me as odd. I'd have expected a town suki to be suspicious of me for accusing her. But instead she makes an excuse for my "bad read". Minor thing.
accuses trackd00r N1 when roflwaffles was clearly more suspicious to everyone else+ Show Spoiler +
Everybody else was super suspicious of roflwaffles. But she made a big case against trackd00r instead. It's possible she just made a bad read, but this is another minor point against her.
She only accuses roflwaffles after the following list of people want his blood: miltonkram, alan, sciberbia, s0lstice, crossfire. Looks like another bus.
I haven't gone through the cases on trackd00r or golden yet, but I think its pretty likely suki is the last mafia, so
##Vote suki
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For what it's worth I made the case on trackd00r before anyone else put a case out on N1.
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@suki
Sorry, I realize that point was not clear. I was pointing out that roflwaffles (not trackd00r) was the most scummy candidate and indeed is confirmed scum. If you were townie, I'd expect you to find roflwaffles more scummy than trackd00r. It's a minor point against you that you didn't find roflwaffles super scummy until everybody else did.
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Anyways, hum. I'm a little disappointed.
Firstly, I'm disappointed that nobody's commented on my case against trackd00r. I put a lot of time into it and I don't think my points are easily dismissed.
Second, I'm disappointed that s0lstice is tunneling me so hard. My impressions of him are town, and he has made great reads in the past, but he is frankly wrong about me here. Sciberbia jumping on me means two influential townies are going to try their hardest to get me lynched and, as my defence has already been posted and disregarded, it seems they won't back off.
My read on golden is that he is not suspicious. I looked through his filter and can't see anything bad. I believe alan is vigi. I believe sciberbia and s0lstice are both town as they have been playing a great game and have played consistent with what I saw from them in Mafia XV. Milton is also the same milton from XV. My read on Crossfire has already been posted and I believe he is more likely to be town than scum. I believe unforgiven is town, because he would have pushed for a better night target than austin since he is really good at reading people. (Regarding austin's NK I think it's just noise. There's no reason not to kill an influential townie on N1, except to sow confusion). That leaves trackd00r who I think is very suspicious.
Now, I have not read in depth on everyone here. I spent a few hours putting together my case on trackd00r, as I spent a few hours putting my case on alan (and the subsequent follow ups).
If find s0lstice's tunneling of me (and lack of comment on my defence) very strange. Maybe not suspicious, but strange.
I feel that I've been upfront for this whole game. I've stated my suspicions boldly, presented my cases clearly. I've been wrong, about alan and about HeavOn (the so called 'scummy' defense of HeavOn) but that's not a scummy thing in itself. I'm being targeted because I haven't been scared of making mistakes, of calling people out, of changing my vote to who I think is the most scummy. I spend a lot of time on analysing the person I think is most suspicious rather than making shallow analysis on everyone who I think could be suspicious..
I have things to do tonight, I also have things to do tomorrow during the day so I won't have the time to do any heavy analysis prior to the lynch, although I will check the thread periodically.
On trackd00r's most recent post:
+ Show Spoiler +@ Alan and All
I actually like alan113's case.
I must say that Golden answered very aggressively to alan's case. Compared of what I see in his previous posts, he was more relaxed while giving reads and stuff.
I find his defense quite worrying: ''you are a retard.'' , ''i dont hold any undergraduate degree, i'm hardly a scholar.'' are points which clearly show a state of stress.
While it is true that anyone can get defensive, I find it quite weird that Golden is acting like this, because after we killed two mafia in just 72 hours, it must be a very pleasant and comfortable time for us. Assuming that he is town, he should be pretty happy and calm in the search of looking for the last scum, but on the other hand...
Golden reacts aggressively to Alan's attack. I don't find this state of stress a solid case against golden, as he had previously overreacted when austin accused him of not delivering on his promises. trackd00r's assumption that townies should be pleasant and comfortable ... is dumb. There is still one mafia left and we are still on a ticking time limit. He uses read text to illustrate that he is suspicious of golden, and to his credit he is pointing out suspicious behaviour rather than bad play.. But I find his argument weak and not all that suspicious, and he didn't even straight out say that he felt golden was acting suspiciously or scummy. This post does nothing to change my read against him.
Neither s0lstice nor sciberbia (who both pretty much have the same case against me) have given my defence any credit or really even a response. No one except alan has really posted their in-depth thoughts on trackd00r. And trackd00r still hasn't delivered any useful posts in his own defence.
I think I've gone through everything I need/want to say.
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Oh, right
##vote trackd00r
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@sciberbia
Well, I don't know what to say. I guess trackd00r just caught me eye first.
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Trackd00r is my #1 scum suspect at this point. Here are a few things to keep in mind when looking at the D1 lynch.
What scum motivations were there for a voteswitch? At what point did players move their votes over? Seeing that 3 players had moved their votes in quick succesion(suki, me, and roflwaffles+ Show Spoiler +Funny tidbit. Spoilered cuz it's unimportant. Suki ninja'd me with her vote. I remember posting my vote and then looking back and being like, "hold on a second, this page is waaaaayyy longer than I remember when I refreshed."
Maybe this is too WIFOMy, but I feel like the safe play for scum would have been to have one player voting HeavOnEarth in order to gain some of the town cred in case he got lynched and one player voting someone else in order to keep a little momentum towards a possible mislynch. This isn't a strong point, so my opinions aren't the only things hinging on this.
Regarding why I think trackd00r is scum, a lot of it has to do with the D1 lynch analysis that I outlined earlier. Other than that he spends a lot of time pressuring easy players (Crossfire and Golden), and putting up some pretty weak pressure. I don't think his priorities are in line with a town player's priorities. I have read suki's case and it was pretty good. I'd recommend you all take a second look at it. If she's wrong about trackd00r I'll give the case against her a second look with a different perspective. I don't think she's wrong though.
##Vote: trackd00r
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EBWOP: This isn't a strong point, so I'm not hinging my opinions on it.
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trackd00r. I want to know why you said you were suspicious of suki and then never posted a case on her.
On June 15 2012 02:58 trackd00r wrote:
Ok back to the game.
At this stage of the day, the 3 most suspicious players that I have in my list are Suki and Crossfire99 andO.Golden_ne. I'd like to push a lynch to any of them. I'll post analysis in a moment.
I'm pretty sure she has asked you this already also. I don't see a response in your filter.
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While rereading the thread I noticed that the first three suspicions/cases presented early day 1 were heavon on golden, rofl on alan, and suki on trapdoor. (We know heavon and rofl are scum.) This was all based on very early game stuff. suki backs off of trapdoor after people defend him and rofl backs off of alan after I caution him against careless voting. Then suki comes in with this attack and vote on alan. Reading it knowing that alan is town and was/is a 1 shot vigilante helps a lot. I quote her post below and put my thoughts in both italics and underline.
On June 14 2012 13:21 suki wrote:@Miltonkram Show nested quote +Suki has been painting track's two posts as directly contradictory even though they aren't. This could be an overzealous town play but I don't think it is. What possible motivation could there be for a strong attack on someone with a controversial opinion? Firstly, there's the chance that the town might bandwagon on it. This would be the best possible scenario for suki if she is scum. She leads a bandwagon D1 and she gets a mislynch. Secondly, she gains town cred for appearing aggressive even if she doesn't get the lynch. It seems like a win/win scenario for scum unless of course someone makes the analysis I'm making now.
In summary, the case on trackd00r is pure crap. Making a controversial statement is not a scumtell. I think suki is trying to cover her scumminess by appearing aggressive without making a good case. Apologies for not addressing you directly. Quite simply you (and several other people after you) answered your question. The motivation is to get the ball rolling some way, any way. I feel I failed a bit in that regard as my attack was so full of holes that there hardly was any discussion developed from it, but it was made with good intentions. Regarding Mouldyjeb, I agree that he is confusing, however his filter is also quite short. His words definitely are not pro-town, but in my opinion they aren't inherently scummy either, it could just as easily be poor town play. Now I've gone through a few people's filters, and only one person really sticks out at me: alan133 roflwaffle initiated pressure on him, and then loosened up after Crossfire and I argued in alan's defense. I did not find the case convincing before, but now alan's posted his defense, and now the case is a lot more stronger to me. As a quick rehash of rofl's initial case, he argued that alan made posts with little controversy, that he wasn't interested or willing to apply pressure on anyone, that he does some bandwagoning. All true, but possible for both town and scum play. However, with his defense posts, I feel that things are starting to add up. Looking even closer at the filter I feel I've caught some things that I missed before. + Show Spoiler +
FMPOV, suki's case was most probably based on a misunderstanding, but (s)he could very well did it intentionally hoping for a bandwagon leading to a mislynch. Note that I am merely listing the possibilities, I do not FoS anyone yet, which can also mean that I do not trust anyone yet.
His initial statement is very verbose and is pro-actively defensive. He's countering arguments to his words before they even come up. He's even countering counter arguments to his words. "...hoping for a bandwagon leading to a mislynch. [counter] Note I am merely listing the possibilities, I do not FoS anyone yet, [counter-counter] which can also mean I do not trust anyone yet". He also likes to use FMPOV and IMO a lot, further stressing how his words are subjective. It's very telling when someone is that self-conscious and defensive, because only mafia really have that motivation. I don't see this quote by him as being overly defensive in any way. He was already put under bad pressure by rofl, so he wants to make sure people understand him. He's saying suki attacked trapdoor based on a misunderstanding, but could be mafia and done it intentionally. He also states he doesn't have any really good reads yet, so he is suspicious of everyone. This is early on day 1 and he thinks it is smart to play it safe and be cool, especially in his case because he doesn't want to draw undue attention to himself because he is a vigilante. Also, I think use of FMPOV and IMO are completely fine for anyone who is town because as town you only know you are town. Anyone else can be mafia. I actually think suki attacking this betrays her mafia alignment because only mafia have objective knowledge of who is town and who isn't. Every case a townie puts forth is subjective argumentation based on people's own words. When called out by waffle for not having suspicions, he gets extremely agitated. Show nested quote +
FMPOV, anyone can be scum, and having no FoS does not mean I do not suspect anyone. I merely state that I have no strong scum read as of currently, and in my context, strong means pretty much confirmed.
IMO those who are decisive in throwing votes based on weak or insubstantial claims were somewhat suspicious. I think it is normal for townies to hold doubts and and being decisive as they were less informed. If anything, I just tried to keep an open mind.
He spends a lot of words explaining his reasoning behind saying he doesn't have an FoS. He starts to really use red to emphasize his words, which he had used previously to point out inconsistencies and scummy lines, but not to add emphasis to his words. Notice that he is spending a lot of effort defending himself and justifying his past words. I feel a townie would be less threatened by such accusations, and instead start trying to apply pressure and otherwise prove their towniness. So defending yourself is scummy? NOPE! In no way is defending yourself scummy. If you never defended yourself when you are town and this causes you to be lynched, you actually HURT the town. Her advice is actually good mafia advice. Ignore the case against you and hope it dies while pressuring others. . Following what he feels is an adequate self-defense, he goes on the offensive. Show nested quote +Also, is it me or you were trying to divert the attention AWAY from suki? I don't see how keeping the attention on suki is a bad thing, as you suggested. His current play is anti-town at best, as he hasn't brought any of his thoughts to the table, and has only left ambiguous and bandwagoning answers to keep attention on those with controversial opinions. Well if you're complaining about not bringing up any of my thoughts, there you have it. I were trying to avoid throwing out suspicions with little to no proof, but if by not doing so is anti-townAs a matter of fact, roflwaffles55 asked for my opinion replying to my opening post, and criticise it being a bandwagon, while forgetting he did the same. This is extremely extremely scummy to me. What he's saying here is essentially this: "If not giving throwing out suspicions is anti-town, then I will prove my towniness by throwing out suspicions.", followed by attacking the person who attacked him. This isn't scummy. He is being attacked for being neutral and playing it safe, so to try to satisfy his critics he decides to throw out some suspicions. Eventually he will have to throw out his own suspicions, so he might as well do it when some people are attacking him for not having any to show that he is trying to play as a team. He finishes the post by saying Show nested quote +
My policy is to stay as neutral as possible, accessing all the possibilities while passively waiting/reading what other people has posted. I do believe this is not a bad-town play, as I am trying to avoid town fighting town scenario while scums lurks and look at the drama while eating pop-corns.
There is a mental disconnect here. 1. He feels throwing out suspicions is bad for town 2. He tries to prove his towniness by throwing out a suspicion at his attacker 3. He reinforces his belief that staying neutral is not bad town play If he really was town and he really believed that his way of playing was optimal, why would he have the need to go completely against his beliefs to prove his towniness? His stance is classic blue behavior. Stay in the background, read other people's cases and weigh their validity to inform his own decision on what night action to take. It is also not bad vanilla townie play (in some instances) in the sense that too many cases and suspects just confuse everyone. We only need to find one scum each day. Also, he went against his beliefs because people were pressuring him to give his suspicion, so to defend himself he gave his suspicions. In his next post, the same trend continues. He spends time justifying his red text: Show nested quote +
The red text was meant to emphasize on how easily I could've built a case against you if I were to use the same speculations and baseless assumptions.
but the interesting thing is.. if it was so easy for him to build a case against waffles, why didn't he? Of course, because he didn't have any. He was simply defending via attacking. He was just making a point that you can make a bad case based on anythingAnd then there's the whole weird analysis that he does where he analyses my case and waffle's case, comes to the conclusion that: 1. waffles could be either scum or town (???) 2. somehow finds me slightly scummy even though he previously thought that my case was based on a misunderstanding (and went to extra lengths to state that he did not FOS anyone yet), 3. Some sort of mafia conspiracy theory out of left field what?? 4. Which he backs off saying 'I think I might have read too much into it." So, he finally makes analyses on people, but only the two most active and controversial ones, and doesn't come to any solid conclusions. He makes a really weird statement regarding mafia alterior motives that doesn't make any sense coming from a town's perspective, but comes naturally to a mafia who is trying to spin scum motivations on townies. Being active and controversial generally means that there will be evidence to make a case against you. It is still early in the day and he never really wanted to be in the spotlight to begin with so he is unsure about his reads. Heck I was unsure about my reads that early on. Yeah he mentions some possible mafia motives and it turns out he was right about half of his conspiracy theory already and might have been right all along 0.o
Oh yeah he backs off of it because he readily acknowledges it is a conspiracy theory. If he was 100% sure that both you and rofl were mafia based on what was posted already, I would have thought he was mafia because we had no solid information at the time.Summary1. He's pro-actively defensive 2. Justifies his own actions instead of trying to make pro-town actions 3. Defensive Aggression 4. Inconsistency regarding a neutral/suspicion-throwing playstyle 5. Attacks the two most controversial posters with a questionable theory for townies to think of that he just kind of throws out there. 6. Still no solid reads, analysis or suspicions despite (kind of??) conceding that not throwing out suspicions is anti-town. Suki is mafia ##vote alan133
##Vote: suki
Note: I noticed that some people were suspcious of suki and I decided to keep that in the back of my mind while rereading the thread, which is when I came across the above post. I didn't read the most recent cases on suki (and I had forgotten the original cases on her by now) because I wanted to come at the situation with an open mind. This post by her and her bad case on trapdoor is enough for me to vote for her now. I'll go read everyone else's cases on suki to see what else they found scummy.
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Also, suki you are right that I need to take a break from you. Know that my opinion as of this moment remains unchanged. I read your defense, and it didn't change my opinion, so I didn't really see the need to respond. People can read my case and your defense and decide for themselves.
I'm going through the filters of the 4 folks on my list in depth (again). Suki's latest post reads pretty sincere, and I want to put it in context with the rest of her filter. I'll also re-read the active cases. I went a little heavy on the sauce tonight but I'll get it done!
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Oh yeah I keep on forgetting to post this. Thanks for all the well wishes guys. I wasn't injured at all because I wasn't in my car at the time. It was parked and some fool hit it and drove away. Now I have to get it repaired and pay for it out of my own pocket. Thankfully, I don't think my deductible is that much, but I have to check to be sure.
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On June 17 2012 11:51 s0Lstice wrote:trackd00r. I want to know why you said you were suspicious of suki and then never posted a case on her. Show nested quote +On June 15 2012 02:58 trackd00r wrote:
Ok back to the game.
At this stage of the day, the 3 most suspicious players that I have in my list are Suki and Crossfire99 andO.Golden_ne. I'd like to push a lynch to any of them. I'll post analysis in a moment. I'm pretty sure she has asked you this already also. I don't see a response in your filter.
OOPS
I think that explains many things. I didn't meant to put suki on that list. I can't believe I misread it or something. The two ''and'' in that look very wrong in that sentence. Sorry if I confused anyone.
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@crossfire
So defending yourself is scummy? NOPE! In no way is defending yourself scummy. If you never defended yourself when you are town and this causes you to be lynched, you actually HURT the town. Her advice is actually good mafia advice. Ignore the case against you and hope it dies while pressuring others.
never said that. thats just twisting my words.
This isn't scummy. He is being attacked for being neutral and playing it safe, so to try to satisfy his critics he decides to throw out some suspicions. Eventually he will have to throw out his own suspicions, so he might as well do it when some people are attacking him for not having any to show that he is trying to play as a team.
his suspicions target inconsistencies in his opponent's behaviour. ie 'i did this to you and you called it scummy, but look, you also did it to me, so how are your actions not scummy?'
if you're going to throw out your suspicions, you should be doing it in a way that hilites scum/suspicious behaviour. pointing out these kind of inconsistencies isn't going to help the scum hunt and it only serves as a method of self defence.
His stance is classic blue behavior. Stay in the background, read other people's cases and weigh their validity to inform his own decision on what night action to take. It is also not bad vanilla townie play (in some instances) in the sense that too many cases and suspects just confuse everyone. We only need to find one scum each day. Also, he went against his beliefs because people were pressuring him to give his suspicion, so to defend himself he gave his suspicions.
i have no idea he's blue. you're judging me with information that i didn't have. it's also scummy to stay in the background, i was pressuring him to actually contribute to town.
Being active and controversial generally means that there will be evidence to make a case against you. It is still early in the day and he never really wanted to be in the spotlight to begin with so he is unsure about his reads.
not wanting to be in the spotlight is also mafia trait.
I don't think your case against me is strong at all crossfire. It comes down a lot to knowing now that alan was blue, information that nobody had at that point in the game, and my pressure to force him to contribute more towards the town, as opposed to staying out of the spotlight. At this point, we know that he had good motivation for doing so because he was blue, but that's information we didn't have back then.
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Also crossfire, please elaborate why you think my case on trackd00r is bad.
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oops? seriously?
you didn't think it was important to do an EBWOP about that?
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jesus I want to vote you right now based on that ALONE. I promised I'd read though, so I'm gonna.
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Actually while I'm reading, how about you tell me how you took the time to bold her name and still didn't realize your 'oops.'
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@suki
on ignoring your defense+ Show Spoiler +
I understand it's frustrating when people ignore a defense post that you spent a lot of time on, but I never set much store by a suspect's explanation of their actions.
If you are mafia, you will construct plausible townie explanations for your actions. If you are town, you will give the plausible townie explanations for your actions. I find it very hard to distinguish between a scummy explanation and a townie explanation.
I agree that there exists a plausible townie explanation for your actions, and I'm not surprised that you were able to provide it (whether you are town or mafia). For what it's worth, you will have at least made me feel really bad if I'm wrong about you.
why I am suspicious of you+ Show Spoiler +On June 17 2012 11:03 suki wrote:
I feel that I've been upfront for this whole game. I've stated my suspicions boldly, presented my cases clearly. I've been wrong, about alan and about HeavOn (the so called 'scummy' defense of HeavOn) but that's not a scummy thing in itself. I'm being targeted because I haven't been scared of making mistakes, of calling people out, of changing my vote to who I think is the most scummy. I spend a lot of time on analysing the person I think is most suspicious rather than making shallow analysis on everyone who I think could be suspicious..
You are not being targetted because you have been bold, upfront, and not scared of making mistakes. Of the 9 players alive, you and trackd00r have the unique combination of a) not being attacked by either of the 2 confirmed scum b) not contributing much to the death of our 2 confirmed scum Also neither of you have c) contributed much towards stopping mislynches Of the two of you, you have done more toward pushing mislynches (you pushed alan and were neutral on MJ; trackd00r defended alan and was slightly defensive of MJ) and done less toward contributing to the successful lynch (you defend HeavOnEarth at first;trackd00r doesn't comment). So I find you more suspicious. I'll probably comment on the case against trackd00r at some point tonight. If not, tomorrow. If you are actually town, you can at least find solace in the fact that trackd00r is very unlikley to survive to the end of this game if he is scum. My suspicions toward you are a result of finding the most likely explanation. Either a,b, and c above are true because you are mafia, or they are true because you have had some bad luck and bad reads. I think the more likely explanation is the former.
@miltonkram on suki's vote+ Show Spoiler +
I agree it'd take some guts for both mafia to commit to a HeavOnEarth bus, but I think suki would be up to it. I think their planned mislynch (alan) was clearly not coming to fruition. I think we pretty clearly would have lynched HeavOnEarth even without their help. Who else would we have lynched? Crossfire is the only person other person who stood any chance of being lynched, and I just don't think that was going to happen.
Again, here are the stances on HeavOnEarth just before you, suki, and roflwaffles voted him:
s0Lstice - top target
sciberbia - one of top 3
miltonkram - one of top 3
austinmcc - HeavOnEarth looks bad, but prefers other targets
alan - top target
roflwaffles - thinks he is suspicious
suki - soft defended
I agree that trackd00r looks bad for his whole lack of D1 opinion on HeavOnEarth. I'd probably push to lynch him next if suki flips town. But I find the case against suki pretty good. I'll post on trackd00r sometime in the next 24 hours for sure.
A couple of things in suki's favor+ Show Spoiler +
suki's posts have made me feel so potentially guilty for being wrong about her, I've looked for things in her favor.
Since early D1, I have been getting more of a townie vibe from her posts. Still, she made a pretty good defense last game, so I think she'd be up to giving off a townie vibe as mafia.
Another thing - I think suki would have conceded by now if she was mafia. But maybe not. Minor point in her favor.
I only just thought about the NK again.
I really don't see suki making the NK of austinmcc. Does not seem in character at all. Only thing I can think of is that austinmcc voiced suspicions of suki D1 and was defensive of trackd00r. Still, really don't see it. I'd have expected her to kill someone like me or miltonkram (not s0Lstice for fear of medic save).
You know who seems more likely to have NK'd austinmcc? trackd00r
I don't have that strong a feel for trackd00r's personality or playstyle, so I wouldn't be as surprised that the NK was austin as I would be if suki was mafia.
Also, if you look at the blue text during N1, the mods kept asking for night actions. I think it's likely that this is because the mafia didn't send in their kill yet.
roflwaffles was MIA the entire night. suki was pretty active throughout the night, and trackd00r only came back at the end. So one likely explanation for the mods asking for night actions is that both remaining mafia were afk for most of the night phase, and the mods were worried that they wouldn't send in an NK. Maybe trackd00r only sent in the kill at the end.
Is alan allowed to tell us what time he submitted his night action and if he submitted it to both hosts?
In summary
-- suki and trackd00r are in my tier of top suspicion
-- I find suki more suspicious based on posts
-- I just realized that the whole NK business suggests trackd00r is mafia rather than suki
-- I'll study track00r more over the next 24 hours and post more thoughts
-- I think we will probably end up lynching both of them anyway (assuming we don't win today), so it's hardly likely to matter.
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trackd00r,
I've decided I'm not waiting for your response, because I think you just scum-slipped hardcore. I like lynching liars, and I believe you are lying. For reason, see below:
On June 17 2012 12:42 s0Lstice wrote:
Actually while I'm reading, how about you tell me how you took the time to bold her name and still didn't realize your 'oops.'
Suki, I think I screwed up bad in my read on you. You've taken the punches like a champ, kept your cool, and really gave this game your all. Like sciberbia I feel pretty awful about the situation, provided you are town. + Show Spoiler +If trackd00r flips town though you'll be hearing from me again
##Vote: trackd00r
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s0lstice, I think you did your job right and that if I really were scum, your pressure on me would be extremely effective. Don't feel bad for pushing me, that's what a good townie should do. Plus you can't be right ALL the time right? haha.
I take it as a huge compliment that you think I'd be up to playing such a risky/advanced level of scum. I have the unique perspective of having a town read on everybody (more or less), including myself, leaving the only likely suspect to be trackd00r. I also feel very strongly about my case on him (hence my disappointment that nobody's really commented on it), and his 'OOPS' post just confirms my suspicions.
@sciberbia
My suspicions toward you are a result of finding the most likely explanation. Either a,b, and c above are true because you are mafia, or they are true because you have had some bad luck and bad reads. I think the more likely explanation is the former.
I just really have had bad luck and bad reads. I have to say, it feels pretty awful to put so much effort into hunting scum, only to keep missing. I'd love to go over my thoughts behind my moves this game, but I'll do that post-game so I don't clog up the thread when we really need to focus on lynching scum.
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Hey all. I know being a confirmed town, it is bad to say this. This is useless information, so I am going to put it in a spoiler.
+ Show Spoiler +I somewhat lost confidence in my scum hunting abilities. This is partially due to the people that I regard has high analysis skill pushing the lynch on suki, while I have a town read on her. You can read my defence for her. The other thing is, I did not thoroughly consider s0Lstice's conditions when he proposed his plan. I failed to see the townie's motive and spent my time going through his filter, attacking him and sabotaged his plan. I don't know if he truly understand my doubts against him, but the response from him suggesting no, and I feel like a scum s0Lstice would easily get what I said and start defending.
Regardless
@Suki
My view on suki remain unchanged, I went through s0Lstice's and defended for her. However, if you missed my spoiler, with 3 strong analysis pushing a lynch on her, I think I could be wrong. I hope they consider her defence, and mine. I am not willing to lynch suki. Unless it risks an NL, I will not put my vote on suki.
@O.Golden_ve
I went through one of his game's filter in his history as VT, and I notice he is similarly defending both sides when two people are tunnelling one another, stating they could be just two townies tunnelling each other. I find his friendliness is consistent in this game.
However, when I brought up a case against him here, he got mad. It contrast his last game. When a case was brought up to him, + Show Spoiler +that eventually got him lynched,
The first point directly debunk my main point in FoSing him: being too friendly. I will still keep an eye on him, but I think I got a better lynch target.
@trackd00r
I noticed in Day 1 he throws weak cases about. I mentioned in a post that he stretched my words following rolf's case against me. Suki posted a case on him, so please read that as if someone else as wrote it to avoid bias.
I intentionally asked trackd00r for Golden's case. I was hoping he leaks scum tales. Assuming scum trackd00r, one of the reason to kill austin, is to push austin's agenda for lynching Golden day 2, and it is consistent with his day 1 vote. He did not mention any of this, but he is aware that town is having high morales and scums are probably shitting themselves right now I am not sure if this is anything of significant, but I could be a far sketched scum slip.
trackd00r votes O.Golden_ve, like HeaveonEarth did. Golden pointed this out and I originally thought this is way too obvious to be a scum tale, but the possibility is there.
I changed my mind on Golden's case. I will reserve judgement until trackd00r flips town, that also means I am going to push a lynch on trackd00r.
EDIT: While writing trackd00r's case, I refreshed and saw s0Lstice's case. This gives me my confidence back. Anyone wants to build a case on me for bandwagonning?
##vote: trackd00r
@sciberbia
I don't know if I am allowed to tell the time, but here is some of my "inner monologue" during the night.
I have a strong scum read on rolfwaffles55, and is pretty convinced he is scum. I was debating against myself if I should shoot him right away. There is no clear scum #3. I originally wanted to let him live, hoping that he will slip and reveal his partner.
However, I later debates that it is not guaranteed for rolf to slip his partner, he probably will lurk through both days, and if I don't take the shot now, we will waste one whole day cycle just to get him lynched, especially he is on the top of the most wanted list. Also, I don't know if dead scum is allowed to contribute in the scum chat, but leaving the last scum with no allies destroys his morale.
I took the shot as soon as I I am aware that I might break the rule. The rule says do not compare PM time. If you want to know when I made my mind to shoot, it was right before when I post the "vig should just shoot rolfwaffle55"
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EDIT:
@sciberbia
I think I am too far fetched from your original intention for asking about my lynch time, but I you can tell I switched to focusing on getting a 3rd scum in the middle of the night phase, and I posted my pm long before.
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EDIT2:
@sciberbia
I think I am too far fetched from your original intention for asking about my lynch time, but I you can tell I switched to focusing on getting a 3rd scum in the middle of the night phase, and I posted my pm long before host's blue text.
The confidence is making me way more careless :S
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@suki
+ Show Spoiler +On June 17 2012 12:27 suki wrote:@crossfire Show nested quote +So defending yourself is scummy? NOPE! In no way is defending yourself scummy. If you never defended yourself when you are town and this causes you to be lynched, you actually HURT the town. Her advice is actually good mafia advice. Ignore the case against you and hope it dies while pressuring others. never said that. thats just twisting my words. Show nested quote +
This isn't scummy. He is being attacked for being neutral and playing it safe, so to try to satisfy his critics he decides to throw out some suspicions. Eventually he will have to throw out his own suspicions, so he might as well do it when some people are attacking him for not having any to show that he is trying to play as a team.
his suspicions target inconsistencies in his opponent's behaviour. ie 'i did this to you and you called it scummy, but look, you also did it to me, so how are your actions not scummy?' if you're going to throw out your suspicions, you should be doing it in a way that hilites scum/suspicious behaviour. pointing out these kind of inconsistencies isn't going to help the scum hunt and it only serves as a method of self defence. Show nested quote +
His stance is classic blue behavior. Stay in the background, read other people's cases and weigh their validity to inform his own decision on what night action to take. It is also not bad vanilla townie play (in some instances) in the sense that too many cases and suspects just confuse everyone. We only need to find one scum each day. Also, he went against his beliefs because people were pressuring him to give his suspicion, so to defend himself he gave his suspicions.
i have no idea he's blue. you're judging me with information that i didn't have. it's also scummy to stay in the background, i was pressuring him to actually contribute to town. Show nested quote +Being active and controversial generally means that there will be evidence to make a case against you. It is still early in the day and he never really wanted to be in the spotlight to begin with so he is unsure about his reads. not wanting to be in the spotlight is also mafia trait. I don't think your case against me is strong at all crossfire. It comes down a lot to knowing now that alan was blue, information that nobody had at that point in the game, and my pressure to force him to contribute more towards the town, as opposed to staying out of the spotlight. At this point, we know that he had good motivation for doing so because he was blue, but that's information we didn't have back then.
Ugh, you are right. Rereading my case on you I realized I base too much on knowing that alan is town now, but we didn't know that then, so I can't use a lot of that to judge you. I still don't like you attacking him for being too defensive, though. The way you worded you statement makes it seem that he shouldn't have defended himself, but if that's not what you meant...I guess I'll take that.
I did read your post on trackdoor and looked through his filter and you make some good points. Right now I need to take a step back and think, though. I'm not entirely sure what's happening. I need to get my bearings. I'm going to unvote you for now and sleep on it.
##Unvote
Unforgiven, what are your thought on all that has been happening? Mouldy didn't help out so much (hence being replaced), so I want some of your thoughts.
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Hi guys, sorry for me not being so active, but i've been very busy, its 3am here and i just got home and my phone is being a asshole (its keyboard doesnt work well) and tomorrow its gonna be hard for me to get online because of fathers day.
Seeing you have killed 2 mafia, we are in a ver confortable position, dont kill me because of me lurking.
The last scum you killed was playing a very standard mafia (seeing as he was one of my reads whit me just reading 10 pages at once) we need to see if he left a connection to someone.
i had mixed reads from the posts of austincc, he being killed is very weird, because (to me) solstice and sciberbia are much much better players (no offense austin) and they have posted a couple of analysis.
So, give a couple days please and i will try to help town if you havent killed the last mafia when i comeback, but i trust you will get him
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On June 17 2012 14:13 Crossfire99 wrote:
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Unforgiven, what are your thought on all that has been happening? Mouldy didn't help out so much (hence being replaced), so I want some of your thoughts.
Sorry, didnt see this, to be honest, i have no idea of was happening right now, my only help to town right now will be my vote. I will try really hard to long in tomorrow and vote for your best candidate. I cant read 10 pages now :S, it sucks to be a replacement
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Sorry for being rude. but this game gets me super anxious. i did over react a bit.
i'd be happy to be on the list if there was one generated. but i want trackd00r at the #1 spot on the list. that's my trade off.
bold move from s0lstice and i am also wary of this being a scum-slip.
how about:
Trackd00r, Me, s0stice, 4th person (i dont mind because i think Trackd00r will flip red).
i'm wary of unforgiven also, he's replaced MJ yet morphed into the same character.
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On June 17 2012 09:39 Crossfire99 wrote:
Can a mafia roleblocker both roleblock and kill in the same night? Is the rule different if he is the last scum?
The mafia roleblocker cannot roleblock and kill in the same night. If he is the last scum he may do so though.
On June 17 2012 12:50 sciberbia wrote:
Is alan allowed to tell us what time he submitted his night action and if he submitted it to both hosts?
Yes. As long as there are no screenshots or copy/paste of the pm its fine.
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Day 2 Votecount
Suki(1)
Sciberbia
Crossfire99
Trackd00r(5)
Suki
Miltonkram
s0Lstice
alan133
O.Golden_ne
With 9 alive it is 5 to lynch.
Deadline is in approx 12 hours at 00:00 GMT (+00:00)
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I really think we've got this game in the bag, but for what it's worth I dislike s0lstice's plan.
Mafia is a game whose landscape changes as the game progresses. Town gets more information the longer the game goes and thus more powerful, mafia gets weaker as they must always cover their tracks. Agreeing to a four-day set plan discounts all the information that you will get during each successive lynch/night kill.
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@Golden
We already got two scums and by right townies should be very comfortable. I am not going to build a case on you now to keep the focus on trackd00r, he looked scummier to me, and if he turn red, I'd say it's a nice clean town victory.
I casted my votes on trackd00r, and I am afraid I won't be around close to lynch time. Do not NL under any circumstances. It's Monday morning here (1:20 am) so I need to sleep now, cheers.
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It seems we are lynching trackd00r today. I've gone through the case on him. As I said before, he and suki are most suspicious to me because they are the only ones who
a) were not attacked by a confirmed scum
b) did not contribute much to the death of confimed scum
Honestly, suki still looks more suspicious to me based on D1 and N1. Here are a couple points in trackd00r's favor
challenges me & s0Lstice early on+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 12:04 trackd00r wrote:
s0lstice: Is it my idea or you already gained trust from Sciberbia?
I'm off to bed now. Can't do much atm. Will be back in 8 hours ~ Minor thing. Takes some guts as mafia to question influential townies.
was actually more defensive of MJ than most people+ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 03:44 trackd00r wrote:
First of all, sorry for my bad English. I'll try to check my grammar before posting.
Mouldy Jeb's play is confusing as hell.
Not only his posts have no real town content, but the way he writes them makes me feel I'm looking at a completely different game.
Anyways, I can't tell if this is scum play or just plain bad town play. Since he stated that in his last game he got lynched D1, the latter option is what I'm taking at the moment.
@Mouldy: What do you think of last miltonkram post? Do you keep your stance on him? suki stated in her case that he was at first aggressive toward MJ, but later backed off. It looks to me like he is slightly defensive of MJ, moreso than most people. I would not expect the mafia to do any defending of MJ on D1.
directly addressed roflwaffles on alan
+ Show Spoiler +
trackd00r made a kinda weird post where he addressed roflwaffles and stated that the case on alan isn't going anywhere. Another minor point in his favor: from what I've seen, newbie scum rarely address each other in the thread on D1.
Obviously, he is still pretty suspicious for pushing the wrong people (golden & crossfire) and also not talking about HeavOnEarth until the last minute.
Since the NK of austinmcc, trackd00r has started to look a lot worse relative to suki.
I already talked about how the mod's blue text suggests to me that the mafia hadn't submitted their NK. And I think this would be more likely due to trackd00r than suki.
Also, suki has been very active and I just don't see why she would be putting in all this effort if she is scum. Maybe just to make us do 1 more mislynch? On the other hand, trackd00r has been pretty quiet since the day post.
In summary
I don't feel overly confident about either of suki's or trackd00r's cases individually. But they are definitely top 2 candidates on my list and I think both have a decent chance of being the last scum. I'm honestly not sure which I think is more likely the last mafia, but it seems suki has at least guilted us into lynching trackd00r first so...
##unvote
##Vote trackd00r
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oh forgot to say this
@trackd00r
IF YOU ARE A BLUE, CLAIM NOW!
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EBWOP: dammit stole the mod's font again... why do mod text and townie roles have the same color :/ sorry hosts
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sciberbia, you saw trackd00r's 'oops,' yes? I really don't think I've seen a more obvious scum-slip in my four games.
Guilt does not factor in at all. What you say about suki's recent posts, where she has full knowledge that she is next should trackd00r flip town, is very telling. I see it as highly unlikely that scum suki would be behaving in this manner.
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@s0Lstice
I guess you're probably right about suki. Her behavior would be rather odd if she is mafia. I just feel weird basing analysis off reasoning such as why the last scum hasn't given up by now. I mean scum technically shouldn't ever concede or give up, just to keep us honest, so we can't pull analysis like this in future.
Maybe I'm just being dumb, but I don't really get why the OOPS post is such a scumslip. Maybe trackd00r found suki third most suspicious, so he put her name on the list. But then he decided he didn't want to do analysis on her, so decided not to put her on the list, and for whatever reason didn't edit it out correctly before hitting submit. If he is scum, he surely could have concocted a better lie than OOPS. And as he pointed out, the two "ands" in that sentence suggest that he was trying to only put two people.
Anyway, I just don't see any really great evidence that trackd00r is scum. He made some bad reads and not the best cases. But that can happen to townies too. I'm just not as convinced about him as I was about heist last game or roflwaffles this game. I think he only looks as scummy as he does by process of elimination, so I'm a little worried that we're wrong.
But hopefully I'm just being a pessimist/skeptic and we'll all be celebrating a win in 5 hours. So cheers to that.
just to reiterate
@trackd00r CLAIM IF YOU ARE BLUE
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On June 17 2012 16:40 Unforgiven_ve wrote:Show nested quote +On June 17 2012 14:13 Crossfire99 wrote:
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Unforgiven, what are your thought on all that has been happening? Mouldy didn't help out so much (hence being replaced), so I want some of your thoughts. Sorry, didnt see this, to be honest, i have no idea of was happening right now, my only help to town right now will be my vote. I will try really hard to long in tomorrow and vote for your best candidate. I cant read 10 pages now :S, it sucks to be a replacement
I understand. I'll give you some slack today. If this game last longer I'll expect you to contribute. I just realized that we've both been in the same game on both Mother's Day and Father's Day. What a coincidence.
As for me, I'm not entirely sold that suki is confirmed town, but I'll give her the benefit of the doubt on her case and see how trackdoor flips because he does look scummy.
##Vote trackd00r
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Thread is pretty quiet. I'm optimistic that trackd00r is scum seeing as he hasn't defended himself or even voted.
Will trackd00r be modkilled or replaced if he does not vote? Same question for unforgiven.
Is anybody else
a) in the thread?
b) thinking it'd be a good idea to switch our lynch to suki if the hosts guarantee a modkill on trackd00r?
I doubt we'll have enough people here to pull that off anyway, but can't hurt to ask.
@trackd00r
If you are looking at this thread, please speak up now. And claim if you are blue.
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Day 2 Votecount
Suki
Sciberbia
Crossfire99
Trackd00r(7)
Suki
Miltonkram
s0Lstice
alan133
O.Golden_ne
Sciberbia
Crossfire99
With 9 alive it is 5 to lynch.
Deadline is in approx half an hour at 00:00 GMT (+00:00)
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I'm here. No defense feels a lot like heavonearth. I think we have a winner here.
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and yea no on the vote switch. definitely not enough people
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Haven't been in the thread because a combination of girlfriend aggro and preparations for Father's Day kept me away. I'm just about to head off to work so I won't be able to be a part of any voteswitching shenanigans (might be a good thing). The silence from our suspect seems pretty damning though. I'm starting to get really excited :D
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Night 2
"What do you desire?
Fortune? Power? Fame?Glory?
Or something that suppresses all others?"
trackd00r the veteran has been lynched.
Night 2 has begun.
You have 24 hours to submit all night actions. Remember to submit them to both hosts!
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trackd00r where the heck did you go? gg
that's really frustrating
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Day 2 Final Votecount
Suki
Sciberbia
Crossfire99
Trackd00r(7)
Suki
Miltonkram
s0Lstice
alan133
O.Golden_ne
Sciberbia
Crossfire99
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Warning to unforgiven_ve for failing to vote.
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wtf mang... this is crap.
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i mean we're still ahead. but this is no good.
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Veteran as the least likely townie to be shot... Nice luck for town!
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Alright so I'm pretty pissed we didn't get that perfect victory. I really shouldn't still be awake, but I'm in angry analysis mode. + Show Spoiler +Also Xatalos wtf are you doing in here?! Hi btw ;D
Nothing has changed with the people I'm reading town. Let's go back to the list:
-suki
-golden
-unforgiven
-crossfire99
The scum has to be in there. I cleared crossfire before, but I'm putting him back in for the moment so I'm not leaving any stone unturned.
O.Golden.ne: Our first flipped scum spent all of day 1 trying to get him lynched. This would be an extremely ballsy bus move, and it's like pie in the sky unlikely. Must be town
Unforgiven: Both our flipped scum tried to get Mouldy Jeb lynched on day 1. HeavOnEarth had him as a top scum read, and roflewaffles said 'hey if we can't get a majority let's totally lynch Mouldy Jeb!' So for the same reasons: must be town
Crossfire99: I cleared him before because he was the first person to call out roflewaffles following HeavOnEarth's flip. I went back to NMM XIII and looked hard at his play again. I saw in there that he bussed his teammate Mufaa, and up until that point it was the most solid analysis/pressure put on the guy. I wouldn't consider it above a scum Crossfire to bus waffles in the way he did. Still, the simplest explanation here is that they are not teammates.
Look at roflewaffles day 1 play. He saw his teammate was about to be lynched...what was he doing to try and stop it? Pushing Crossfire. This is similar to what heist did in NMM XV. Scum heist tunneled hard on a player to try to create a counter movement that would stop his teammate from being lynched. Heist's counter movement target of course was town, just like roflewaffles counter movement target must be town.
Suki: this leaves you my dear. All the arrows point in your direction. You've fought valiantly, but I want to kill you know.
I want to know how everyone feels about killing Suki on day 3.
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@s0Lstice
I'll post more later. For now, what are your opinions on miltonkram?
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The thought ran through my head that if suki actually flipped town, I might want to lynch milton next. That was just a passing thought though. I'm on my phone right now, so I'll just post stuff that I got in short term memory.
His joke vote on you would be a weird thing for scum to do. A needless risk for early game. I don't remember the exact chronology but I think he was pretty early to push heavonearth. I'll look through his filter in depth tomorrow, but I've been getting a pretty good town vibe from him.
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I seriously thought we nailed it with trackd00r, especially when he did not defend himself.
I want to start with a few questions for the mods
When a scum is dead, is he/she still allowed to contribute in the scum chat?
I read the answer regarding scum RB and killing. If there are 3 scums with killing ability, are they allowed to kill 3 person (1 person each) provided they don't use their role's special ability?
@Blue Night Actions
I don't know if we should discuss blue night actions now, but given that I already am a confirmed one-shot vigilante that has already used up his shot, here are my suggestions:
Cop:
I know it is obvious I am town, but if you aren't convinced I am Vig, there is no reason real vig don't counter claim, so use it on someone else. I think the priority comes down to this. Use it on the person you FoS most. If you can't come out with one, use it on a lurker, since they are really hard to read. However, if I am cop, I would have picked s0Lstice. He reads town, but the suggestion really throws me off. I really want to know if I can really trust such an influential player, especially when he proposed his plan.
Medic:
Don't use it on me. I am basically a VT now. Use it to save other potential blues. If I were you I will use it on my most comfortable town read, and if there is a tie, I will go for the most influential and analytic one.
Jailer:
Go for your main FoS. If there is a kill, he is certainly clean. If there is no kill, it could be: The person you jailed is scum. Medic saved victim. Scum No kill <---- (unlikely)
If scums are jailed, I assume they can't kill that night, no?
Vigilante:
I don't know if there is another one out there, but if there is, shoot only you are certain. Don't hide even if you kill an innocent, just out it so we can identify another 100% clear. Also, don't shoot me.
If multiple vigs went for the same target, do they all lose their bullets?
Veteran:
If there is a second one, claim in Day 3 if you are hit.
@O.Golden_ne
Now that trackd00r flipped town, you are my next FoS as stated in my day 2 post. I think given our current situation, it is okay to be a little depressed. Can you explain why this game made you so anxious as you stated in day 2? I think town was in pretty good shape in day 2 and if anything, it caused me to get careless. If you are town just answer truthfully, don't lie just because you think the truth is less convincing.
Give your last day's post, your FoS is Crossfire now. This is due to the vote thing, but Crossfire did not vote because he was involved in an accident and is unable to return to vote, so that clears him off your radar. Who is your main FoS currently?
@Suki
Many people has mentioned suki. I think she is the current "most wanted" person. I will reserve my judgement until I re-examine her again.
Day 3 stuffs that is currently not important and shouldn't be the priority in current discussions:
Should we mass role claim in day 3? If PMs are allowed I would have asked for everyone to PM their roles in day 2 already. I want to know if anyone agrees/disagree.
I hope we all keep an open mind. As long as someone is not 100% confirmed, leave some rooms for doubts. And if that last scum wants to take me out, COME AT ME BRO.
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@alan
I don't think mass roleclaim is a good idea. If we have a cop, we probably don't have a medic/jailkeepr, so I don't want to make cop come out before he judges it's the right time. Also, it's a semi-open setup, so it's pretty damn hard to figure out if anyone is lying.
Anyway, I've been kidna panicking a bit after seeing the trackd00r flip. I was looking foward to enjoying some post game talk, but now I'll just be happy if I don't feel like an idiot after this game.
Anyway, here are some reads on the 7 players left not named sciberbia:
short version:+ Show Spoiler +
alan - confirmed vigi
MJ/unforgiven - probably town
golden - probably town
s0Lstice - probably town
crossfire - probably town
miltonkram - idk
suki - kinda scummy
long version:
alan+ Show Spoiler +
confirmed vigi. Nobody else claimed the shot, and somebody obviously did it, so alan is for sure vigi.
golden+ Show Spoiler +
I'd be pretty shocked if golden were mafia. I honestly haven't even looked at his filter that much, but just from looking at roflwaffles's filter, I don't think golden can be mafia.
crossfire+ Show Spoiler +
Both confirmed scum attacked him, and tried to get him lynched. Also, the two confirmed scum are failry newbie (no offense) so I just don't see this as being a bus. Pretty definite he is town.
MJ/unforgiven+ Show Spoiler +
Nothing in these 2 filters is of much value, but as s0Lstice pointed out, both confirmed scum had no problem dumping suspicion on MJ. So I think it's pretty unlikely that he is scum.
s0Lstice+ Show Spoiler +
Hmm I guess it's possbile that s0Lstice just bussed the crap out of the other scum, and in hindsight it probably would have been a smart strategy for him to pull as mafia. And s0Lstice is a pretty smart player.
But he has played about as pro-town as you can get and his whole filter gives me a townie feel. I'm slightly paranoid that he could be mafia, but I really just don't see it.
miltonkram+ Show Spoiler +
I'm not saying that he looks really scummy, but I don't see why he can't be scum. The only major thing in his favor is his pretty good accusations of HeavOnEarth during D1. But I could maybe see him making that bus. I'll write more about him in another post.
suki+ Show Spoiler +
I feel it's pretty likely that suki is the last mafia. I've already written a lot on her case.
The only things really holding me back are the NK of austinmcc and her high activity D2. But I don't see how we can not lynch her just based on that. Maybe she just wanted to see if she could avoid one more lynch for the lulz? Idk..
So in response to s0Lstice's query, I'm totally down with lynching suki D3 (sorry suki).
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Also sciberbia,
The NK of austin wouldn't make much sense for a scum milton. Austin did not suspect him, and if Milton was scum he would have killed off the strongest town read he could find.
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in regards to the NK of austin for a scum suki...it's not crazy to think that she would not want to kill someone accusing her, as that person's cases would then carry more weight
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My outlook on the game post-lynch:
People will be taking a much closer look at me. It's to be expected, after the case that s0lstice and sciberbia brought up. I feel I pushed a good case on trackd00r and its frustrating that he wasn't able to defend himself adequately.
I once again went through all the players in the game. I think I am just going to accept the hard truth that I just blow at analysis.
My reasoning for tunnelling someone aggressively is that if there really are other scummy players, they will be picked out by the other townies, meanwhile my analysis will either find scum, or force townies to act more townie, or force mistakes from scum.
There are two people who stand out at the moment in my opinion:
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Mouldyjeb/unforgiven:
+ Show Spoiler +
Both HeavOnEarth and roflwaffle were on Mouldyjeb's case since Day 1. Highly highly doubt that they would double bus their own teammate that early.
Read: unforgiven very lurky. Possibly town, possibly scum, but can't analyse due to lack of posts. He looks more townie due to mafia double bus early Day 1.
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golden:
Essentially i'm all for an agressive early game.
despite saying this, he is hardly aggressive.
Found Mouldyjeb suspicious. Found austinmcc suspicious but doesn't explain why.
Austinmcc pressured golden for 'broken promises to contribute more'. Golden got really really offended at it. Could see an angry golden just shooting austinmcc N1 just to get back at him. Haha.
I only glazed over the HeavonEarth issue when i was catching up on everything. I feel like a nob because i remember he had that attack at me and i never really addressed it. I don't like defensive voting per se but i'll form and post some opinions on him shortly.
forgets that heavOnEarth attacked him. Possibly just didn't give his teammate's post much thought.
from crossfire's lynch summary post ( http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15090823 ), note that Golden was 6th to vote for heav0nEarth. Right in the middle of the pack is a good time for a mafia to jump on a bandwagon.
Here is alan's case on golden ( http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15104147 , summary here : http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15104403 )
It is pretty in depth and I suggest people read it.
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Also note that golden gave no reason for jumping on trackd00r. He simply stated he said trackd00r was #1 on his scum list and voted him.
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In summary:
I am town. That's my only defence at this point. If you believe me, then I hope you'll take a really close look at alan's case on golden. If you don't believe me, then I still hope you'll take a really close look at alan's case on golden.
Going to bed soon but I'll keep up with the thread and post my thoughts. Just a little too burned out to do any sort of heavy analysis right now.
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Suki, you are saying then that HeavOnEarth, confirmed scum, began bussing his teammate in his very first post, and spent his entire time in this game trying to get his teammate lynched.
Please explain this.
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On June 18 2012 09:03 zelblade wrote:
Warning to unforgiven_ve for failing to vote.
sorry! just got home
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hmm. looking at the replies that happened while i was writing my post/eating dinner, I think I am going to get lynched.
Plus people have pretty much cleared golden and unforgiven, which were the two people I suggested as most suspicious.
What this means is, we are looking at risky mafia play early on day 1. Maybe even an extremely convincing bus of a teammate to gain townie credibility.
I beseech you guys, even if you are 100% sure I am the last mafia, you have to have to have to keep analysing for the last mafia, because I am town and when you lynch me I will bleed green. Don't waste the entire day patting yourselves on the back for catching scum suki cuz you'll be unpleasantly surprised come nightfall =[
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@s0lstice
I don't know. Now that you put it that way, it seems so unlikely. HeavOnEarth doesn't seem like a sophisticated player that would do something like that. Golden also doesn't seem like he'd be around enough to orchestrate that sort of thing.
You can lynch me, but it's not going to do town any good.
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Your death is absolutely the best thing for town right now. If you are green as you claim, then there was some really funky twighlight zone bussing going on. Because that is so unlikely, we can't even consider it until we see your flip. If it's green, then we will be pretty much certain that we are in bizarro bus world.
Frankly though I think you are lying through your teeth
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The case against miltonkram
I think that suki is most likely to be the last scum. But if she flips town, the next person I'd want to lynch would be miltonkram. I don't think he's especially scummy, but he is not at the almost-definite-town status at which I place every player besides him and suki. I'm writing this case against him because nobody else seems to want to lynch him, and I'm worried he could survive to the end of the game as mafia.
First of all, I grant that his playstyle seems similar to his town from NMM XV, and that his filter gives off a townie vibe. But that's not conclusive evidence. Not the same level townie-evidence as for people like crossfire, golden, or MJ, who were mercilessly attacked by 2 confirmed scum on D1.
miltonkram's stances during D1+ Show Spoiler +ordering is roughly chronological trackdoor - neutral suki - suspicious crossfire - suspicious alan - "fairly decent" case against him roflwaffles - suspicious, but then backs off MJ - #1 on scumdar alan - very suspicious, but then backs off HeavOnEarth - would vote, then votes His suspicions on roflwaffles don't do anything to clear him in my mind. Nobody was really suspicious of roflwaffles at that point, and miltonkram backed off his suspicions reasonably quickly, so roflwaffles wasn't really in any danger based on miltonkram's actions. Otherwise, he throws suspicion onto a bunch of people that are town (assuming milton is last mafia): suki, crossfire, alan (kinda), MJ. This isn't damning but isn't exactly comforting either. Helping to Lynch HeavOnEarthMiltonkram does contribute to the lynch of HeavOnEarth, by putting HeavOnEarth into his "top 3" after only me and s0Lstice have accused him, and then applying the third vote to HeavOnEarth. This is certainly evidence in favor of miltonkram being town, but I could maybe see him pulling the bus as mafia. It would honestly be the smart move. And it wouldn't be the riskiest bus ever or anything. He originally listed HeavOnEarth as 1 of a list of 3, and it was after s0Lstice and I accused him already -- pretty safe townies to side with, but a bandwaggon of 3 doesn't assure a lynch. To me, a miltonkram bus of HeavOnEarth seems by far the most likely out of all possible busses.Putting the third vote on HeavOnEarth would definitely be a ballsy move, but maybe he judged it was the best choice. And if he is mafia, it probably was. Also here's some food for thought: On June 17 2012 11:17 Miltonkram wrote:
Maybe this is too WIFOMy, but I feel like the safe play for scum would have been to have one player voting HeavOnEarth in order to gain some of the town cred in case he got lynched and one player voting someone else in order to keep a little momentum towards a possible mislynch. This isn't a strong point, so my opinions aren't the only things hinging on this.
about the NK (worth reading I think)+ Show Spoiler +@s0Lstice First of all, as a point of fact, austinmcc did voice suspicions of suki during D1, so your logic as to why suki might have killed austinmcc doesn't hold. This is the the second time I've gotten the feeling you don't thoroughly read my posts. Tsk Tsk. Maybe it's a sign I shouldn't write so much :p Anyway, I've been thinking and thinking and thinking about the NK. It doesn't make a lot of sense no matter who ordered it. + Show Spoiler +But actually now that I think about it, all of the sensible NK targets voiced suspicions of suki: me, s0Lstice, alan, miltonkram. So maybe suki would have found some reason to kill austinmcc. Anyway, the best explanation I have come up with for the hit on austinmcc is that the last mafia thought that they could avoid getting lynched as long as there was no cop. And for whatever reason they thought austinmcc might be cop. Miltonkram is someone who can reasonably hope to avoid being lynched without a cop. But he was honestly a pretty good cop check last night. So maybe that's why he picked austinmcc over me/s0Lstice/alan. austinmcc does seem most likely to be cop out of those 4. Also, miltonkram was gone almost the entire night. Him being scum would totally fit into my theory about scum not submitting their NK until the last minute. Also look at this post from miltonkram. I found this to be really bad advice the second I read it. The point of a breadcrumb is for people not to notice it. Maybe he was fishing for the cop? On June 16 2012 07:34 Miltonkram wrote:
EBWOP:Breadcrumb your actions right at the end of the night. That way scum don't have a chance to catch your breadcrumb before they send in their night actions. Finally, this isn't exactly related to Miltonkram, but I think it's quite possible that the last mafia is roleblocker and RB'd austin last night. This would work out great for mafia if austin was vigi/cop/veteran. And it doesn't let us know the presence of a roleblocker. Maybe the mafia felt austin looked blue, and that's why he died?
IN SUMMARY
-- I am for lynching suki, and then miltonkram if she flips town
-- This isn't so much because miltonkram looks scummy, but that everyone else looks townie
-- I am obsessed with figuring out why austinmcc died, and I have a possible explanation
P.S. Every single time suki posts, I feel worse and worse about lynching her. But I think she is the only sensible choice.
P.P.S. @Miltonkram don't feel obliged to write a defense post to this. There's honestly not much to explain as most of your actions make good sense for a townie. Assuming we don't win D3, you'd have to convince me somebody else is more scummy than you for me not to push you D4. Maybe you could explain the breadcrumbing comment though.
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Yeah. Welcome to bizarro bus world. You're here already you just don't know it yet
Both roflwaffle and heavonearth do not strike me as that sophisticated of players. Thus, I don't think that there was any plan for cooperation from the start between the two dead scum and our last remaining one.
The most likely scenario is that Scum #3 is a strong player, who decided that it would be in his best interest to bus both of his teammates early to gain extreme townie cred. This strategy worked well in XV with Xatalos taking the win, although he did make some slips early on that could have exposed him if people had looked into him more in depth. Of course, an early bus or even double bus is so risky for mafia that it seems really unlikely, but that is the situation we are in now.
It doesn't matter if you believe me now. When I flip, you can come back to these words and think carefully.
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The most important lesson to be learned in mafia XV was that the pattern of night kills, and townie's impressions of night kills, was very important to discovering that Xatalos was the last mafia.
If player X was heavily tunneling player Y, and player X gets shot, does that mean player Y was scum? or maybe thats just what scum wants you to think. The town attitude in XV was that decyphering the meaning behind night kills was so WIFOMy that it wasn't worth doing. This lead to mafia being able to shoot the strongest player every night without fear of having the night shot analysed. At the very end, Xatalos shot the one person who was against him, thus securing a win because he knew the other two remaining players wouldn't analyse the shot and realize that the shot only made sense if he made it, not the #1 suspect at the time.
We saw austinmcc get shot N1. Someone will get shot N2. These shots have meaning, and just because it's WIFOMy doesn't mean its not worth discussing.
If the last remaining mafia was bold enough to start the game with a double bus, they most likely won't slip, and they might not even have any suspicious behaviour if they are good enough. The last remaining source of information is the pattern of NK's. Don't forget that.
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@suki
I just have to say, if you are the last mafia, you are a total jerk :p You're making my life way more stressful than it needs to be right now.
Also, if/when it becomes clear that we are lynching you, please claim your 2 night actions if you are blue.
You're analysis about a "strong player" seems to suggest I or s0Lstice am mafia. I have to admit there is logic to what you are saying. It's more likely that the sneaky third scum would bus the 2 dead newbie confirmed scum, than that the 2 dead newbie confirmed scum would bus the third, sneaky, alive scum. That is why I am most suspicious of miltonkram after you. And I'd have to consider s0Lstice if both you and miltonkram flip town. But only after getting out of the hospital and recovering from my heart attack.
Anyway, I'll be going to bed soon and might not be posting for a while.
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Just something to consider...
If Milton is scum, the second bus was easy as hell. By the time he chimed in, rofl's death was essentially a foregone conclusion.
Then really, the only one he bussed was heavonearth. Bussing one of your teammates when an influential townie is calling for their death is a logical play.
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and on the subject of nightkills, don't forget that scum are trying to find the blues. it's not always kill the strongest player.
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I'm off to bed finally, but I agree with sciberbia that of the bussing scenario's, Milton's really seems the most likely.
Also Milton is going to be very surprised to see all this when he gets back from work. Hi Milton.
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Here is some food for thought on Milton:
Secondly, she gains town cred for appearing aggressive even if she doesn't get the lynch. It seems like a win/win scenario for scum unless of course someone makes the analysis I'm making now.
Milton seems focused on how I get town cred for getting aggressive. Town cred is something that scum think of a lot but town don't really care about. Notice how Milton is trying to give himself credibility with the last sentence for pointing out the possible scum-motivation behind my posts.
+ Show Spoiler +Miltonkram: roflwaffles55 I'm suspicious of this guy based on two of his posts. First one is a response to s0Lstice/sciberbia: Show nested quote +
Sure!
When it comes to lynching lurkers I would agree in that it shouldn't be the focus, and would prefer to lynch someone acting scummy day 1.
As to NL, I am firmly against it and if we can't get a clear majority on scummy-acting folks then we should at least lynch a lurker, especially on D1 and 2.
Notice the eager to please tone of his post. I'm looking at it as a possible scumslip. His 2nd suspicious post: Show nested quote +
I agree that I may have been a bit too aggressive right off the bat, but I implore you to look at my arguments and his, and take more from it then just an overzealous attempt on my part.
##unvote alan133
There you go, I'm still suspicious, but I may have underestimated the significance of a vote.
Notice how self-conscious he is in this post, especially in that last line. I realize that several players weren't interested in his case, but there is absolutely no harm in keeping pressure on a player until they give you a satisfactory defense. Essentially he backs down from his pressure based on a tiny reprimand from Crossfire. It seems like he's trying to keep himself out of the spotlight. roflwaffle: You've defeated yourself in your own argument against me, with the explanation as to why I backed down on alan133. I backed down because I hadn't received any support towards my case. You also defeated yourself by saying that I'm trying to keep myself out of the spotlight, if I wanted that, I wouldn't have been the third person to post a case, let alone one I knew would net me a bunch of flak.
I made the case to put pressure on someone that was lacking any real opinion, whether because he felt that there wasn't enough data to form one, or because he was hiding from the spotlight himself.
The evidence or suspicions that you have brought up can be answered so easily I'm not sure why you didn't come up with them yourself.
Miltonkram:
@ roflwaffles
Ok, I see what you're saying. I thought you were completely backing off of alan even though you've made a decent case against him. I still don't like the fact that you took your vote off of him based on a wrist-slap from Crossfire, but I guess I misunderstood your intent. Since you're still pursuing your case on alan the unvote seems less scummy.
As far as alan133 is concerned I think you may have something. He's put very little pressure on anyone. When he does pressure he seems wishy-washy as hell.
Miltonkram had a little back and forth between himself and roflwaffle. Notice how easily roflwaffle deflects Milton's case against him, as if the arguments Milton made were meant to be deflected. Now notice how milton just gives him the green light.
However... Milton says, "I thought you were completely backing off of alan... but I guess I misunderstood your intent. Since you're still pursuing your case on alan the unvote seems less scummy."
I don't see how Milton could have taken that away from rofl's post. Rofl straight up said he backed down. There was no mention of still pursuing his case against roflwaffle. Milton seems to be justifying rofl's actions for him, while saying that rofl seems less scummy.
In the same post, he renews rofl's case against alan. "I think you may have something." Soft support of his teammate?
if suki and roflwaffles were both scum they were essentially going all in on bussing HeavOnEarth blowing any chance that town mislynches D1. Blowing such a chance seems like a pretty gutsy play so maybe she learned well from Xatalos, but I'm not entirely convinced.
This is a possible slip. It describes his behaviour perfectly. He also references Xatalos' play from XV, meaning he's perfectly aware that this was a valid strategy to do this game.
Maybe this is too WIFOMy, but I feel like the safe play for scum would have been to have one player voting HeavOnEarth in order to gain some of the town cred in case he got lynched and one player voting someone else in order to keep a little momentum towards a possible mislynch.
sciberbia pointed this out, but it happens in the same post as the quote above. It describes his play perfectly.
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I'm on my phone right now so I'm not going to quote alan's questions.
When a scum is dead he is not allowed to contribute in the scum chat.
No, each night the scum team decides on one person to send to kill. This means that scum can only kill one person each night (in this setup, larger ones are different).
If a scum gets jailed and they are the one the team decides to send for the kill, yes the kill will fail.
Yes both vigs will lose their bullets.
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I like this analysis of Miltonkram's bussing. It makes more sense than s0lstice or sciberbia being mafia, which I really dread cuz I can't find any holes.
sciberbia on Milton's bussing of HeavOnEarth: Milton only puts down his suspicions after both s0lstice and sciberbia have labelled HeavOnEarth as suspicious. And he does it as a 1 of 3 list.
s0lstice on Milton: "If Milton is scum, the second bus was easy as hell. By the time he chimed in, rofl's death was essentially a foregone conclusion"
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For those of you suspicious of me, one thing that you should note is that my play style had no fail safe in place when my reads eventually became wrong.
It doesn't make sense for a scum suki to go full out for a mislynch, either that of Alan on Day1 or Trackd00r Day 2. As you can see, the fallout of being wrong is really really bad. Not only that, but I hadn't even set up 'possibly suspicious' players to go after my mislynches failed. If you really think that I could play a strong mafia game, you should also believe that I'd be good enough to be able to gracefully recover when things go awry.
You can, however, easily find townie motivation behind my tunnelling. As you saw, both of my targets turned out to be blues. They tried to keep out of the spotlight and avoid making strong reads, and it was for these reasons that I targeted them. With alan, I was successful and his contributions convinced me to change my vote.
I may not have been good at hunting scum, but I was good at digging out the non-committal behaviour of blues, I guess.
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It sucks we didn't get a perfect game, but at least we'll be able to sharpen our wits because I think this scum is a lot better than rofl and heavon. I was really unsure of what happened yesterday and didn't really get strong reads on people based on what was posted so I decided to reset and begin fresh from this post (+ Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 14:24 Crossfire99 wrote:Ok now let's analyze this lynch. Solstice drew the first blood with these + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 10:07 s0Lstice wrote:Alright, so I went filter spelunking and explored every nook and cranny. My general impression at this moment is one of disappointment. I know it's rare to get good reads on day 1, but some people's filters are incredibly barren. If I had to lynch right now, here would be my suspects. HeavOnEarthHe's pretty lurky. His hard stance is on Golden, where he builds a case on the poor guy's intro post. Look at the case: Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 23:52 HeavOnEarth wrote:morning everyone First off, id like to say im suspicious of everyone who tries to stay under the radar. I feel newer mafia players have a tendency to try and stay quiet. That said O.Golden_ne looks the most suspicious to me- On June 13 2012 09:43 O.Golden_ne wrote:On June 13 2012 09:25 austinmcc wrote:
-snip
I'm not looking to push lurkers early and stay on them for an entire day cycle, killing discussion, but they need to be considered and I'd rather be looking at them on earlier days than when we're close to/at LYLO/MYLO. agreed. NL is bad. Killing lurking is necessary. Lynching scum is great. Lets get the ball rolling and squeeze out the lurkers early so we can narrow things down later on. Looking forward to scumhunting, i'm happy with the deadline on this as its 10am for me in Aust, which means i'll be able to meet the deadlines for lynching in the mornings a little easier. I'll try my hardest this game to meet these deadlines and to contribute useful information rather than filler. Essentially i'm all for an agressive early game. I want to be able to establish some basic reads by the end of Day one, and if theres no-one who's appropriately scummy then we lynch a lurker. Golden Is there anything even remotely helpful in this post? Everyone knows NL is bad. he seems to be posting for the sake of it also, i checked his last game, (he was townie) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=337671&user=92568 u can tell his tone is completely different, and he is generally more helpful. Think of it like this. Scum will be making cases against people on day 1...they have to. I looked at all the cases people have made, and this one stank especially bad. It's built entirely around a hello post. It has a very artificial feel to it. Also, he just posted this: Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 08:47 HeavOnEarth wrote:On June 14 2012 08:38 s0Lstice wrote:
Just checking in guys. I'm going to make a post on my top scumreads in a few hours, as well as some errata. Lynch time is fast approaching and we really need to buckle down. ? lynch isn't for another 24 hours? Townies always feel the pressure of the ticking clock. Half of our time being gone doesn't seem to trouble him. He hasn't really bothered to comment on what's been going on in the thread outside of his own reads. He's been on Mouldy Jeb's case as well. Here's some more recent(!) material: Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 09:32 HeavOnEarth wrote:
was sort of waiting for MJ to post something after he was like hurr durr ima post soon. i took a look at his previous game though and his posts seem consistent from when he was townie. hes really not helping at all, and definitely still looks scum, but it feels like poor town play rather than mafia. Confused? Me too. I think this dude has a chance at flipping scum. and this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 00:50 s0Lstice wrote:
Some housekeeping stuff first..
I am removing alan133 from my scum list. The main thing that had me suspicious was his strong-arm defense, but everything following that has been fine. I like that he is holding himself accountable for his style, and I want to see what he can do when not under pressure.
austin and suki have commented on crossfire99, and I have to say I agree. I was planning on wrighting a post similar to what suki has done. The cogent point is that he has long bouts of inactivity when he is both scum and town. He should get the same level of suspicion that every lurker gets, but nothing special beyond that I feel. His filter right now is pretty garbagey, and hard to get a read on. I wouldn't be upset if we lynched him, but I think we can do better.
Here is better: HeavOnEarth. Nothing has happened to change my initial opinion on him for the better. In fact, him buddying up to sciberbia in his latest post makes him look worse. Go read my case if you missed it. I'm not the only one to see him as suspicious, so I think there is plenty of traction here.
##vote HeavOnEarth . His case on Heavon was solid and good. It doesn't seem like a mafia bus attempt to me (it's too well thought out and puts legit pressure on Heavon), so I see him as a townie. Then alan joins the fun with this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 04:00 alan133 wrote:I see the current pressure are easing off from me. I also realize I has pretty much ignored everyone else except for rolf and suki. @HeavOnEarth His first few points seem disconnected. None of them relates to each other: From FoSing Golden for his opening post, + Show Spoiler +And I thought rofl@me and suki@trap was bad later jumping to accusing Mouldy Jeb (he was an easy target), and then commenting on s0ltice's preception on lynch time + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 08:47 HeavOnEarth wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 08:38 s0Lstice wrote:
Just checking in guys. I'm going to make a post on my top scumreads in a few hours, as well as some errata. Lynch time is fast approaching and we really need to buckle down. ? lynch isn't for another 24 hours? . He also state that he is waiting for responses. Upon being debunked on Gold's read, he basically dismiss it similar the way suki has dismissed her case on trap, claiming they are trying to start conversation. In suki's case, this is still believable. Before her case there was no controversy, and very little to talk about. However, when Heave posted on Gold, there were already controversies + Show Spoiler + and he ignore them altogether. I interpret his motive is to lynch a lurker over an already presented scummy player, and this can hardly be town. Very Suspicious Right now, I find Heav and MJ were the best lynch candidates, and HeavOnEarth appears to be more scummy##unvote: Suki##vote: HeavOnEarthI am off to bed, it is 3 am right here. I will get up in 4 hours so we can get a successful lynch. Another refresh reveals more post from crossfire. My opinion on him has not swayed. . He did some good analysis on Heavon and defend himself against suki well, so I feel he is townie right now. Next suki comes to the party + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 04:58 suki wrote:HeavOnEarth: Okay, something really really sticks out to me in Heavon's first post, and it's not about golden. It's this particular line: Show nested quote +also id like to point out crossfire is completely inactive, whereas in past games he was a pretty talkative little townie.
thoughts? Above, I posted my opinions on Crossfire, where I had gone through pretty much his entire filter in his two previous games, and the big thing I noted was that Crossfire LURKED very hard in his first game as blue, and somewhat lurked in the second game as red. HeavOn clearly is talking about Crossfire's game as blue, 'He was a pretty talkative little townie'. This is clearly wrong. He continues his case against Crossfire later after sciberbia brings it up. This has already been labelled as suspicious. It's a big point against him that he waited until someone else pointed fingers at Crossfire, when he had so early established a read on Crossfire - a fairly in depth read as he had even looked at Crossfire's filters from previous games. The thing is, the case HeavOn makes against crossfire disregards the previous game filters. Crossfire, as mafia, was assertive actively pushed cases against other players. He also lurked quite a bit. Show nested quote +
As for golden i admit my analysis was pretty damn bad LOL , but he didn't really have any other posts for me to provoke him with, and i still feel its a strong play to accuse lurkers of being scummy, just to get them to talk. The way he went about replying though felt really odd to me. For example, i don't really care if you're taking a few mins to write up a post. Why tell me about it(unless you're about to be majority lynched or something). Just feels off.
HeavOn votes for Golden despite saying that his case against Golden is weak. He doesn't back off however, stating that the response was scummy and that the scummy thing about it was how golden was commenting on the time it would take to make his posts? Seems like a very strained argument to make. I see clear scum motivation in voting for golden. In my previous game as mafia, I harped on Miltonkram for his early vote against sciberbia. Even when my argument was convincingly rebutted, I continued to press my case against him finding any sort of scummy intent I could make up. Why? Because I didn't want to be wishy-washy. HeavOn's case against golden is that golden 'just feels off'. This makes Golden a 'solid lynch' to him. I'm out of time, but that's my insight into HeavOn. I feel that there can definitely be scum motivation behind his posts. I haven't had time to closely look at other people but for now HeavOn is clearly a scummier target than alan. ##unvote alan113##vote HeavOnEarth . Suki follows up with some more good analysis on Heavon and I see her also as town. Those three I mentioned above all brought solid analysis and new thoughts on Heavon, so I feel confident in seeing them as town for right now. Then Milton ( + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 04:59 Miltonkram wrote:
Oops, slept in a bit later than I'd planned. s0Lstice, I'm inclined to agree with you. HeavOnEarth looks like the best lynch candidate.
Everybody, I'd suggest you take a look at him. His filter is not particularly long, but I think there is enough scummy behavior there to warrant a vote.
##Vote: HeavOnEarth ), roflwaffle ( + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 05:09 roflwaffles55 wrote:
I noticed already that his play was scummy, however I felt like it was the easy way out, I was hoping to nail a more influential scum D1, but I guess that's just new player optimism... If he flips scum, I'm not sure what kind of information we're going to gain from it as his posts don't seem to link him to anyone.. and if he flips town then all we really know is that he was a poor townie.
I'll go with the flow because he's fairly blatant with his scumminess (real word?) but I'd like to keep an eye on Crossfire, as well as keeping Mouldy Jeb in mind for a D2 lynch.
##unvote Crossfire99
##vote HeavOnEarth
I'm not sure if I'll be on tonight, I'll do my absolute best to be on in case there's a swing of opinion. ), and Golden ( + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 06:27 O.Golden_ne wrote:
in regards to HeavonEarth.
In relation to my:
a) knowing i'm town.
b) Him trying to bus me one the grounds of "seems like a solid case".
c) lacklustre contribution and no rebuttle to any arguments.
i feel like he see's a bandwagon forming and jumps on straight away.
#VOTE: HeavonEarth
i still maintain a #FOS on MouldyJeb
i still owe the group a comment on Crossfire99 but i honestly dont have time for it before work. ) all jump on the bandwagon without much new to add (not necessarily scummy in and of itself, there is only so much one can add based on one day's filter). I did notice a really weird thing about roflwaffle's post, though. He's upset that we are going to get too easy of a lynch and said that he knows Heavon is suspicious but thinks it's more worthwhile to attack someone with more influence like me (huh?, I've been under suspicion all day, if anything that makes people look at me more closely, there's no way I'm going to be influential). Also, his suspicion of Heavon up to that point consists of this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 02:44 roflwaffles55 wrote:
I'm going to post as though all of these people are scum, and the impact they have a chance to make if they are left alive. I think it will give a different way of thinking about it.
HeavOnEarth
His play is quite suspicious and his accusations and suspicions lackluster at best. He could just as easily be an awful townie as scum.
Overall he's been fairly ineffectual, but if he's hiding behind a mask of confusion and bad reads, he could be an annoyance as scum later on.
I believe that the most lynchable potential scum right now would be Crossfire99. I understand that there are already votes on HeavOnEarth, but if he really is that incompetent at bringing cases to the table, as a scum, why would he try to post them? He is suspicious to me, but not as suspicious as Crossfire. Unless he responds to the accusations in a convincing and collected manner soon, I strongly believe that he should be lynched.
##vote Crossfire99 . All of this suspicion came after solstice's case against Heavon and he adds nothing new to it except postulating that he could be an awful townie (we now know that's not true). This makes me suspicious of roflwaffle. This is followed by sciberbia's vote + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 07:56 sciberbia wrote:My thoughts on HeavOnEarth: I was originally somewhat suspicious of him for throwing suspicion onto a handful of easy targets, and then becoming wishy/washy about it. He has since made me more suspicious with his response and attitude towards golden. Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 20:15 HeavOnEarth wrote:
As for golden i admit my analysis was pretty damn bad LOL , but he didn't really have any other posts for me to provoke him with, and i still feel its a strong play to accuse lurkers of being scummy, just to get them to talk. The way he went about replying though felt really odd to me. For example, i don't really care if you're taking a few mins to write up a post. Why tell me about it(unless you're about to be majority lynched or something). Just feels off. First of all, he admits that his case was "pretty damn bad" and LOL's about it. I see this as slightly scummy. He is being ingratiating and agreeable, rather than firm, objective, and analytic. This is more typical of mafia than of townies. Next HeavOnEarth says that there were no other posts to provoke Golden with. The question I'm left asking myself is: why did HeavOnEarth feel that he had to attack Golden at all? He says it was strong play of him to "accuse lurkers of being scummy", but at the time of HeavOnEarth's accusation, golden didn't look lurky. Golden made 1 post in the first 4 hours of the game, and then HeavOnEarth accused him. 1 decent-sized post in the first 4 hours isn't lurky. Why was HeavOnEarth looking for a reason to "provoke him"? Finally, heavOnEarth refuses to back down from his suspicions of golden, and even ends up voting golden, but doesn't give any good reasons. He just says that golden's posting seems odd. Odd =/= scummy. It looks like he just arbitrarily picked a target to attack at the beginning and now won't back down. Overall, I think he has a good chance of being mafia and I'm happy with lynching him. ##Vote HeavOnEarth . He gives some good reasoning for his vote, but I feel it is too late in the bandwagon to say this makes him townie. It could be a mafia finally realizing that his partner is done for and needs to jump on to be less suspicious. I'll leave this as a null read for now. Then austin comes in and votes for me with this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 08:28 austinmcc wrote:I think Heavon looks scummy. But his voting took off after he posted that he was going to be gone for auto repairs. And there's been very little pushback. I'm particularly worried by: (1) us going for the guy who basically said "Won't be around to defend myself," and (2) the lack of any pushback against him, when we had multiple targets recently. There could be some bussing going on, but we had a couple other juicy targets, and I wouldn't expect a bus in that situation. At the very least, my stance right now is that he doesn't look good, but the vast majority of the votes and comments on him seem to have occurred after he said he was leaving. I don't want to lynch him today based on that alone. See your comment towards him. Yes, his reads would help town. Yes, he ought to defend himself. But he may actually have been gone these last few hours, and I want to see his response before I lynch him. If it looks bad, there's D2. I think I'm saying the same thing over and over, so I'll knock it off. Apart from those basic statements, I'll note this. He DOES fit into a category of people trying to look like they're scumhunting but not. The 1 post suspicion of Golden, his comment on MJ - Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 02:39 HeavOnEarth wrote:check out Mouldy Jeb's posts, and accusations On June 14 2012 00:20 Mouldy Jeb wrote:
nope roffle that was a gut feeling about you that why I stated I have no evidence Why would someone try to direct suspicions with NO reasoning? his chiming in on crossfire - + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 20:15 HeavOnEarth wrote:@Sciberbia in addition to what u said on crossfire, notice that he 1) only replies when called out. Every message he is replying to someone, not making his own points aside from his opening. 2) Every one of his posts feels like complete filler to me. he is trying to LOOK helpful, without actively contributing anything + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 02:06 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 02:00 roflwaffles55 wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 01:56 Crossfire99 wrote:Just woke up. I'll start with that only as a last resort will I be for lynching a lurker Day 1. If we can get some good scum hunting done Day 1 we will have a more productive lynch than just a random lurker. Now onto what has been happening. On the whole suki and trapdoor issue: + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 12:44 suki wrote:Is it just me or is trackd00r coming off as scummy already? Show nested quote +
If I understood correctly, it doesn't mean that I would stop any lynch that I didn't mention on my analysis. Just because I have a candidate for lynch, it doesn't imply that I discard any other possibility.
It's something related to common sense. If any other cases are convincing enough, I'll throw my vote there in the case I can't get a majority. In the other hand, if we end up like RNG lynching (which is a bad idea), any other poster that could be doing silly mistakes, or even a player practically saying ''hey guys, I'm mafia, lynch me'' that's when it goes against my mindset. Any possibility is valuable, but if there is something absurdly wrong, I'll call it, even if that means a no lynch.
This post screams to me that he's trying to be super cautious with his words, so that he'll have a safety net if/when he ever changes a vote or bandwagons on someone else. He throws out some 'obvious' examples of reasons of what wouldn't agree with him, and even mentions that he would follow through on a read, even if it that means a no lynch.BUT WAIT! Just ONE post previous to that he says this: Show nested quote +I won't accept a NO LYNCH unless I believe we may have a serious mislynch coming. ... Dude. You try to take a firm stance against something, and then you do the most scummy wishy-washy-ness thing ever the very next post. You're clearly informed about mafia as you brought up the idea of a day 1 RNG lynch, and being against a no lynch is not a difficult or complicated policy to hold. I feel that such a simple logical slip only happens if you're trying to play it safe and keep your options open. ##vote trackd00r I think suki was just being aggressive. I admit that I found trapdoor's response post to be weird, but then I realized that English is probably not his native language, so I reread it a few times. I don't see a contradiction in there, he is just explaining that he would try to stop a lynch that he really believed was on a townie. I'll give suki the benefit of the doubt on this case and say she is an over eager townie for now. On roflwaffle and alan: + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 22:28 roflwaffles55 wrote:I woke up this morning to the arguments made towards trackd00r, and while the arguments made against him weren't particularly convincing, his defense was a little bit lackluster as well. However, I would like to bring your attention to someone else that is acting quite scummy as it stands. Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 13:05 alan133 wrote:On June 13 2012 11:12 roflwaffles55 wrote:On June 13 2012 11:03 alan133 wrote:
Good morning everyone. Looks like the first thing I am going to do in the office is to play mafia on TL. I don't recognize anyone here since this is my first game, well except for s0Lsitce since he is in the game I read. That's my brief introduction, and habitually in the beginning of any game, GLHF.
I am new and am unsure how to proceed with the game, but my current strategy is to wait for more post to come. Currently I have no FoS. That also mean I do not trust anyone yet. What are your thoughts on what's been posted as of yet? On the inactive/lurkers lynch + Show Spoiler +
I believe inactive players/lurkers are generally anti-town/bad town play in any mafia game, so lynching them isn't a bad idea (Since I believe d1 lynch is good, refer below), if there aren't better candidates of course.
On the day 1 lynch/no lynch + Show Spoiler +
I agree on lynching day 1 based on my experience with other mafia games (outside TL) with similar setup. By reading other games on TL I also notice the current meta game is to lynch when there are more players, as it gives townies clues.
I am off to lunch, will be commenting on my thoughts later as I see some interesting posts/votes already. His first post puts him on the bandwagon with his opinion on the inactives and lurkers, and is generally a contentless post with little to no controversy. Otherwise, nothing to bring the spotlight to him at all. While this is not by any means evidence of scummy play, there comes to attention the next post he makes. Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 15:40 alan133 wrote:My thoughts on suki's case: + Show Spoiler +Any possibility is valuable, but if there is something absurdly wrong, I'll call it, even if that means a no lynch. I won't accept a NO LYNCH unless I believe we may have a serious mislynch coming. I started writing before I refresh and saw s0lstice's post. As he already pointed it out, there are no contradictions between the two statements. trackd00r merely states that NL is bad unless it is a "serious" mislynch in both highlighted sentence. If I am missing something, please correct me. Also, Miltonkram: + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 10:35 Miltonkram wrote:
Hey all, glad to see we've got a bit of activity already.
In NMM XV we actually had a decent discussion about no-lynches (involving me making a fool of myself) and how they can actually be beneficial in certain setups. That being said, we don't know for certain if we'll have any modkills so we should leave no-lynches off the table until we hit the unlikely scenario that a no-lynch is beneficial for the town.
Town, the best way to contribute is just to get posting. Let everyone know what your thoughts are. Did someone post something suspicious? Let us know about it. Do you think the town is making a bad move? Let us know about it. If a townie lurks he/she is letting down his/her entire team. So don't do it, K? I'm sooooooooper serious. Like sooooper, soooooooooooper serious.
Hey sciberbia, remember this
##Vote: sciberbia
...heh heh heh
Is it me or you are not actually + Show Spoiler +soooooooooooooooooper serious ? I personally think (well played) townies are not the ones that bluffs around, let alone voting someone without any reason at all? Generally, fooling around, to me, is anti-town/ bad town play. My current opinion + Show Spoiler +FMPOV, suki's case was most probably based on a misunderstanding, but (s)he could very well did it intentionally hoping for a bandwagon leading to a mislynch. Note that I am merely listing the possibilities, I do not FoS anyone yet, which can also mean that I do not trust anyone yet. This is the post that really got me wondering. How by now can you have no suspicions? There has been quite a few suspicious decisions by several people, giving you more then enough time to form a case against someone, or at least apply some pressure. His statement about trackd00r comes after s0lstice, leaving his opinion tied to a fairly influential player and just reiterating what s0lstice said with no additional evidence or opinionated comments. Again, seeming like he's contributing without actually bringing anything to the table. He throws around some suspicion towards Miltonkram, however not enough to constitute a case or apply any pressure, just enough to make people go filter milton and consider what he might have done, which yet again, leaves him out of the spotlight. The last statement he makes in this post is the most suspicious and the largest tell of his indecision and lack of real input. He restates his opinion that suki's case is a misunderstanding, again, nothing of value. He then continues to explain that he has no FoS and that he doesn't trust anyone, leaving his options open, and having no real contrary opinions. His current play is anti-town at best, as he hasn't brought any of his thoughts to the table, and has only left ambiguous and bandwagoning answers to keep attention on those with controversial opinions. I think roflwaffle is jumping a little too hard on alan here. It is like 1/3 of the way through Day 1. We are not going to have a lot to work with and consequently we aren't going to really know what to think of people until we get more information. Therefore, I feel alan is playing smartly by not rushing to find every little thing that might possibly be suspicious and throw a vote on someone because of it. On Milton: He was just joking around. If he doesn't stop then I'll start getting suspicious of him. As for my current thoughts: The bolded part of this post by austin makes me suspicious of him. + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 22:23 austinmcc wrote:
I don't read those posts as contradictory, believe the second one clarifies the first and explains that, while he'd consider a NL, the standard is higher than "Town is lynching someone that isn't one of my top couple reads."
That said, even if the two statements are entirely contradictory, I don't really see anything scummy in that. More inclined to see contradictions concerning votes and reads as scummy, where someone has stated one thing but then has to take a party line, rather than super early statements concerning a no lynch. There's no agenda to push on that issue. Two completely contradictory statements without reasoning for the change is very suspicious. This is a good way to catch scum. They know the alignment of every person, so they have to make cases that they know are wrong (excluding bussing). This can lead to contradictory posts to make them better fit in with the current town mindset. Austin, why don't you think that contradictory statements are suspicious? We need more information, and the only way to get that information is by pressuring people, scum starts with an information advantage and the faster we work to even that out, the better position we'll be in. I agree that we need more information and we get that from pressuring people, but we need to do that smartly. If too many people are throwing around minor accusations all the time, it just confuses the town and allows mafia to sit back and laugh. That is what happened in NMM XIII when I was mafia. Ask austin, he was in it too. On June 14 2012 03:38 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 02:45 s0Lstice wrote:
Crossfire99, what do you think of what I said about Mouldy Jeb?
Roflwaffles55, same question. Yeah Mouldy is acting really weird. He needs to get active to explain himself. Everything he has said so far lacks good reasoning. On June 14 2012 03:50 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 03:24 s0Lstice wrote:On June 14 2012 02:02 Crossfire99 wrote:
--snipped
Be careful roflwaffle, votes are only easily removable if you are around to remove them. You never know what might happen. Also, votes early on in the day cycle that don't really mean much followed by complete disappearance during a controversial lynch can be scum tactic to avoid making mistakes in a heated debate that occurs last minute.
What an odd thing to say. Your message boils down to: don't vote because you might not be around later, and when that happens you are going to look scummy. Discouraging voting for such an arbitrary reason looks kind of scummy. Also, this hall-monitor stuff is a comfortable way for scum to post and have it look like they are pro-town. I never said don't vote. I just said be careful about throwing your votes around willy-nilly under the premise that you are going to remove them later. I never even said don't do that. I just don't want someone sticking someone else with a vote for flimsy reasons that ends up sealing a lynch because they couldn't get back in time to change it. That was the entire point of those two sentences. As for the mention of the scum tactic, I'm just saying that sometimes scum can not take part in big discussions later in the day by voting early and then disappearing. I'm just trying to help roflwaffle, by trying to get him to think about taking his vote seriously and having good reasons for whatever he does. If no one holds anyone accountable mafia can just breeze on by. 3) notice his defensive, and meek tone; in addition to his low post count. he's obviously afraid to attract attention to himself 4) he was lurking for a LONGGG time before he finally decided to post . What u thought we all forgot about that? Not much there. His bit on crossfire is way more robust than his bit on golden or MJ, but still doesn't feel like a whole lot of scumhunting for a day. Again though, I want to wait on him.
That leaves me with cross. ##Vote: Crossfire99What I'd ask of everyone is to show me where Crossfire has done any scumhunting. He posted a little, dropped off the face of the earth, came back, responded to everyone's comments towards him, but never even gave us a single read throughout the day. Nobody looked scummy, because he really just didn't comment on ANYONE. I'm confused as to how that can be towny behavior, and he dropped in, spent time responding to all these people, but spent 0 characters doing any kind of hunting himself. Lurking is bad, but you can lurk and contribute when you pop up. HeavOnEarth didn't contribute when he came back. Crossfire didn't contribute when he came back, except addressing our concerns about him. Between the timing of the votes on HeavOn and the lack of any push on him, I'd rather go with Crossfire today. . Like I mentioned earlier, I think austin's reasoning when related to me gets clouded a little by our last game. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now and hopefully he'll come around, but if he continues this tunneling unnecessarily then I'll have to reconsider. Trackdoor then comes in and votes last with this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 08:52 trackd00r wrote:
I was checking Heaven's filter.
I must admint that he looks suspicious at this stage of the game. I was expecting from him a more detailed analysis of his play, since he stated that he has more experience in playing mafia.
I dislike the fact that he took the most easy target to pressure (golden), instead of trying to outline the other players, He also adds some points against CF, but isn't really big of a deal.
Although I share some suspicions with him, I see that he is not contributing at the same level as the rest of us are. I don't really think that it will be that much of a loss if he flips town. If that is the case, he have a whole post history behind us too see who bandwagoned and who tried to hunt down mafia
As I don't want a NL, I'll change my vote to heaven.
##Unvote: O.Golden_ne
##Vote: HeavOnEarth . He is now just jumping on the obvious bandwagon. I'll give a null read on this until I can go through his filter. I think that leaves everyone except for me and Heavon. I won't even bother quoting Heavon. He just went with a weak vote on Golden and then got lynched. And I missed the lynch for the reasons stated above. Ok. That's all the time I have for now (I should have gone to bed an hour and a half ago, but whatever). I don't know if I'll be back in time before the night ends to post some more thoughts, so consider this my contribution for now. If I survive the lynch, I'll look into roflwaffle's filter and get a better read on him. I encourage you all to do the same and let me know what you think whether you agree or disagree.
This only leaves sciberbia. A first run through of his filter makes it seem like he is town. He is active and contributes, but when you look closely there are some things that stick out. I'll start in chronological order to show the progression in his play.
His opening posts have content but only in the vein of commenting on others posts. His first post where he lays out his suspicions is this + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 13:02 sciberbia wrote:I've been studying the thread and I currently find these 3 most suspicious: suki, Crossfire99, and HeavOnEarthI've been staring at suki's filter for the last half hour, so I'll dedicate the rest of this post to my case on suki, and detail my thoughts on crossfire and heavonEarth in another post. Here are several reasons why I am suspicious of suki: Her original accusation of trackd00r + Show Spoiler +
suki's original accusation of trackd00r was quite strong. She says:
-- This post screams to me that he's trying to be super cautious...
-- BUT WAIT! Just ONE post previous to that he says...
-- try to take a firm stance, and then you do the most scummy wishy-washy-ness thing ever the very next post.
-- ##vote trackd00r
She clearly thinks trackd00r has a good chance of being scum, and is interested in making everyone suspicious of him. Keep this in mind for later.
Anyway, this original accusation drew my attention for a couple reasons.
-- First of all, she twists his words, so her case isn't good
-- As austinmcc said, even if trackd00r had contradicted himself, that's not a great scumtell. Mafia don't intentionally promote mafia policies. That's way too obvious. So I think suki is attacking him for a (percieved) confusing stance, not a scumtell.
-- We lynched suki last game for being wishy/washy. I could definitely see a mafia suki making a bit of a stretch just to make an early "bold" case, and try to look townie. trackd00r would make a good target of such a case since he is new and his first couple posts were a bit confusing (difficult to read).
The way that suki backs off trackd00r + Show Spoiler +I wasn't too suspicious based on suki's initial accusation. But I really didn't like the way in which she backed down from it. + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 00:06 suki wrote:
As has been pointed out, the contradiction isn't as severe as I initially thought it was.
##unvote trackd00r
I thought at the very least I could rouse a response from trackd00r, however my case was too weak and I feel that no useful information can be gleamed from people simply agreeing on its flimsiness.
Before, she thought there was a severe contradiction. Now, she says that there is still a contradiction, but it isn't that severe. What? I was expecting her to say that she had misread/misunderstood. I still don't see any contradiction at all. Her post suggests that she doesn't want to completely back down from her accusation, but I don't see why she is still suspicious of trackd00r at all. @suki please clarify this To me, the most scummy line in her whole filter is "I thought at the very least I could rouse a response from trackd00r". Reading her original response, she strongly accuses trackd00r and seems very interested in getting him lynched. This line about "at the very least" seems contradictory to that motivation. general attitude in her filter + Show Spoiler +
suki was super excited to play this game and was even more excited at the prospect of playing town. Look through her filter. Her posts so far aren't what I would expect from a town suki. After the initial accusation, everything she has said is bland and uninteresting. I don't think she has yet shared any real insight, or shown a lot of interest in helping town. It feels more like she is going through the motions.
how she opens the game + Show Spoiler +
This is pretty circumstancial, so I don't expect many of you to buy into it, but I find the timing of her first two posts odd. First of all, starting the game about 4 hours late is slightly indicative of mafia. Secondly, why does she post a policy response 6 minutes after her first accusation post? She had clearly read the whole thread before posting either. This is all a bit odd to me, and I think it lends credence to the idea that she just wanted to start off boldly to avoid suspicion.
The only thing in her filter that gives me a townie feel is her recent statement about finding golden's opening post suspicious, but waiting to comment on it. Overall, I would rate suki as definitely suspicious, based mostly on her accusation of trackd00r and the way she backed down from it. On June 14 2012 10:07 s0Lstice wrote:Alright, so I went filter spelunking and explored every nook and cranny. My general impression at this moment is one of disappointment. I know it's rare to get good reads on day 1, but some people's filters are incredibly barren. If I had to lynch right now, here would be my suspects. HeavOnEarthHe's pretty lurky. His hard stance is on Golden, where he builds a case on the poor guy's intro post. Look at the case: Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 23:52 HeavOnEarth wrote:morning everyone First off, id like to say im suspicious of everyone who tries to stay under the radar. I feel newer mafia players have a tendency to try and stay quiet. That said O.Golden_ne looks the most suspicious to me- On June 13 2012 09:43 O.Golden_ne wrote:On June 13 2012 09:25 austinmcc wrote:
-snip
I'm not looking to push lurkers early and stay on them for an entire day cycle, killing discussion, but they need to be considered and I'd rather be looking at them on earlier days than when we're close to/at LYLO/MYLO. agreed. NL is bad. Killing lurking is necessary. Lynching scum is great. Lets get the ball rolling and squeeze out the lurkers early so we can narrow things down later on. Looking forward to scumhunting, i'm happy with the deadline on this as its 10am for me in Aust, which means i'll be able to meet the deadlines for lynching in the mornings a little easier. I'll try my hardest this game to meet these deadlines and to contribute useful information rather than filler. Essentially i'm all for an agressive early game. I want to be able to establish some basic reads by the end of Day one, and if theres no-one who's appropriately scummy then we lynch a lurker. Golden Is there anything even remotely helpful in this post? Everyone knows NL is bad. he seems to be posting for the sake of it also, i checked his last game, (he was townie) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=337671&user=92568 u can tell his tone is completely different, and he is generally more helpful. Think of it like this. Scum will be making cases against people on day 1...they have to. I looked at all the cases people have made, and this one stank especially bad. It's built entirely around a hello post. It has a very artificial feel to it. Also, he just posted this: Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 08:47 HeavOnEarth wrote:On June 14 2012 08:38 s0Lstice wrote:
Just checking in guys. I'm going to make a post on my top scumreads in a few hours, as well as some errata. Lynch time is fast approaching and we really need to buckle down. ? lynch isn't for another 24 hours? Townies always feel the pressure of the ticking clock. Half of our time being gone doesn't seem to trouble him. He hasn't really bothered to comment on what's been going on in the thread outside of his own reads. He's been on Mouldy Jeb's case as well. Here's some more recent(!) material: Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 09:32 HeavOnEarth wrote:
was sort of waiting for MJ to post something after he was like hurr durr ima post soon. i took a look at his previous game though and his posts seem consistent from when he was townie. hes really not helping at all, and definitely still looks scum, but it feels like poor town play rather than mafia. Confused? Me too. I think this dude has a chance at flipping scum. alan133There is already suspicion surrounding him, so I won't rehash. The main thing that raises my eyebrows is his defense against rofflwaffles. It was strong, and that was the problem. He was lightly gouged and hit back full force. This can be a sign of fear, or 'something to hide' as waffles put it. Mouldy JebThere isn't really much of a case here. I went and looked at the Magic:The Gathering mafia, and his style is very similar. His style is dangerous, because it's near impossible to read. There is something to go on with his treatment of rofflwaffles, but that's it. Frankly, I hate the idea of him being around late game. I would vote for any of these three at this moment, but I'm not in love with any of these cases. We had it easy last game thanks to sciberbia. That said, you do the best with the circumstances you have, and lynch the scummiest player. We still have some time, so I hope we can improve our odds. Now for the errata. Austinmcc and Crossfire99 really need to post more. Just awful filters. Sciberbia, I have a mental block where I auto-green you in my mind. I fought it off and you really aren't posting much either. I hope you have something for us soon. On June 14 2012 14:10 sciberbia wrote:As promised, here are my thoughts on crossfire and heavonEarth. crossfireThere isn't any one thing that looks super scummy, but nothing in his filter gives me a townie feel, and there are a handful of small things that suggest he is scum: his suspicions on austin + Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +The bolded part of this post by austin makes me suspicious of him. + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 22:23 austinmcc wrote:
I don't read those posts as contradictory, believe the second one clarifies the first and explains that, while he'd consider a NL, the standard is higher than "Town is lynching someone that isn't one of my top couple reads."
That said, even if the two statements are entirely contradictory, I don't really see anything scummy in that. More inclined to see contradictions concerning votes and reads as scummy, where someone has stated one thing but then has to take a party line, rather than super early statements concerning a no lynch. There's no agenda to push on that issue. Two completely contradictory statements without reasoning for the change is very suspicious. This is a good way to catch scum. They know the alignment of every person, so they have to make cases that they know are wrong (excluding bussing). This can lead to contradictory posts to make them better fit in with the current town mindset. Austin, why don't you think that contradictory statements are suspicious? This is exactly the kind of D1 case I would expect a scum to make. Austin makes the somewhat peculiar assertion that there is nothing scummy about contradicting yourself on policy during the early game. Whether or not you agree with this statement is irrelevant. The point is, what does a mafia Austin stand to gain by making a statement like this? Is he planning on contradicting himself later? No. It's very likely that he actually believes what he said so the fact that he said it isn't indicative of his alignment. I don't think Austin's statement is scummy at all. But, it is definitely a statement that a mafia could attack, because it seems illogical. It's easy to criticize. And that's what crossfire did. This is the kind of thing mafia do D1: attack people for seemingly illogical statements even though it isn't a scumtell. Like the mafia's attacks on Vivax from last game. his stance on Mouldy Jeb + Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 03:38 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 02:45 s0Lstice wrote:
Crossfire99, what do you think of what I said about Mouldy Jeb?
Roflwaffles55, same question. Yeah Mouldy is acting really weird. He needs to get active to explain himself. Everything he has said so far lacks good reasoning. s0Lstice, an influential player and good townie, calls Mouldy Jeb his #1 suspicion. s0Lstice then explicitly asks crossfire for an opinion on Mouldy. Crossfire does exactly what I would expect a mafia to do. Agrees with the influential player on his #1 scumread, reiterating what s0Lstice said. Mouldy Jeb would undoubtedly be an easy lynch today, and assuming that he is town, would take the pressure off mafia. And if crossfire is so suspicious of MJ, why didn't he say anything until s0Lstice prompted him? I grant that none of this is solid evidence and that a townie could plausibly act the same way, but crossfire's response is definitely consistent with mafia behavior. Otherwise is avoiding scumhunting + Show Spoiler +
Looking through the rest of his filter, he doesn't say much meaty stuff. In his first post, he rehashes a lot of what previous people had said. And after that, he talks a lot about policy issues such as when to vote and how to pressure people. Nothing too controversial in his entire filter.
Overall, I'd say crossfire looks a bit scummy. HeavOnEarthI don't have all that much too analyze with HeavOn Earth, but a couple things look scummy throws suspicion on several easy targets + Show Spoiler +My main problem with him is that he has halfheartedly thrown suspicion onto golden, MJ, and crossfire. All three of these players were rather quiet (at least initially) and relatively easy targets. As s0sltice said, heavOnEarth's actual cases were unimpressive. Here are heavOnEarth's scumhunting posts: + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 23:52 HeavOnEarth wrote:...That said O.Golden_ne looks the most suspicious to me- *quotes Golden* Is there anything even remotely helpful in this post? Everyone knows NL is bad. he seems to be posting for the sake of it also, i checked his last game, (he was townie) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=337671&user=92568 u can tell his tone is completely different, and he is generally more helpful. also id like to point out crossfire is completely inactive, whereas in past games he was a pretty talkative little townie. thoughts? On June 14 2012 02:39 HeavOnEarth wrote:As for my suspicions, golden still hasn't replied, and there seems to be a lot of random fluff RIGHT AFTER my accusation, by both Mouldy Jeb AND crossfire( oh hey there nice of u to suddenly wake up ) this is a common mafia tactic, to throw the spotlight off someone being accused. check out Mouldy Jeb's posts, and accusations Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 00:20 Mouldy Jeb wrote:
nope roffle that was a gut feeling about you that why I stated I have no evidence Why would someone try to direct suspicions with NO reasoning? And now he becomes wishy/washy + Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 09:32 HeavOnEarth wrote:
was sort of waiting for MJ to post something after he was like hurr durr ima post soon. i took a look at his previous game though and his posts seem consistent from when he was townie. hes really not helping at all, and definitely still looks scum, but it feels like poor town play rather than mafia.
as for golden im still undecided since he hasnt posted anything what the fuck -_-. why sign up if ur not gonna fucking play
but i guess i doubt hes mafia, i would've expected at least a simple reply to my accusations if he was mafia by now. but it seems he just doesnt give a fuck
@_@ idk. kinda confused at this point In this post he becomes wishy/washy about his suspicions on MJ and golden. In particular he says "as far as golden im still undecided". What? Before, golden seemed most suspicious to heavOnEarth. Only recently has he become undecided. This is pretty wishy/washy. The only reason I don't see this as super scummy is that he voluntarily adjusted his reads; nobody asked him to clarify them. My suspicions on HeavOnEarth are tempered by some of the boldness in his filter, such as -- saying "it doesn't matter if your suggestions are completely bad" -- his questioning s0Lstice about the lynch not being for 24 hours -- his abrasive summary of how MJ and golden have been playing Overall, I'd say HeavOnEarth is somewhat suspicioussukiI see that suki has recently doubled or tripled the size of her filter in just two posts. I'm going to read through these and figure out how they affect my read on her.
+ Show Spoiler + -- his questioning s0Lstice about the lynch not being for 24 hours
-- his abrasive summary of how MJ and golden have been playing On June 15 2012 07:04 sciberbia wrote:
Lynch Candidates based on everyone's stated convictions
HeavOnEarth
interested in lynching(8): suki, me, s0lstice, roflwaffle, milton, alan, austin, golden
no comment(3): trackd00r, crossfire, MJ
Many people want to lynch him and nobody is actually defending him at the moment. There is much less consensus on the other candidates (see below).
Crossfire
interested in lynching(5): me, austin, trackd00r, milton, heavOnEarth
not convinced(4): s0lstice, golden, alan, suki
no comment(2): MJ, roflwaffles
Some people find him suspicious. Others remain unconvinced. I don't think it makes sense to lynch him over HeavOnEarth because some people actually don't find him suspicious.
Mouldy Jeb
The argument for lynching him is extreme lurking and unhelpfulness. I'm not against lynching lurkers if we don't have any good lynch candidates. But in this case we do: most people find HeavOnEarth scummy. In addition, we get little information from MJ's flip, whereas we get quite a bit from heavOnEarth.
golden
I haven't gone through the filter, but I just don't get the feeling that there is enough suspicion on him to warrant a lynch over HeavOnEarth.
IN SUMMARY
HeavOnEarth seems like the consensus lynch target. Personally, I think he has a good chance of flipping red. I'll detail my thoughts on him in a subsequent post. Overall, seems like the sensible player to lynch.
@heavOnEarth
It looks likely that you will be lynched today. Please post a defense and more importantly give as many reads as you can.
@trackd00r, crossfire, MJ
Please post your opinion on HeavOnEarth as soon as possible. It's important that everyone weighs in on the lynch candidates, especially the one that looks most likely to be lynched.
This is then where sciberbia becomes smart and starts stepping up his game, but there are some clues. First I will start with this fact sciberbia was active during all of night 1, from the beginning to the end. Here are his post times in order + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 09:12 sciberbia wrote: On June 15 2012 13:46 sciberbia wrote: On June 15 2012 16:54 sciberbia wrote: On June 16 2012 01:48 sciberbia wrote: On June 16 2012 03:14 sciberbia wrote: On June 16 2012 09:00 sciberbia wrote: On June 15 2012 14:24 Crossfire99 wrote:Ok now let's analyze this lynch. Solstice drew the first blood with these + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 10:07 s0Lstice wrote:Alright, so I went filter spelunking and explored every nook and cranny. My general impression at this moment is one of disappointment. I know it's rare to get good reads on day 1, but some people's filters are incredibly barren. If I had to lynch right now, here would be my suspects. HeavOnEarthHe's pretty lurky. His hard stance is on Golden, where he builds a case on the poor guy's intro post. Look at the case: Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 23:52 HeavOnEarth wrote:morning everyone First off, id like to say im suspicious of everyone who tries to stay under the radar. I feel newer mafia players have a tendency to try and stay quiet. That said O.Golden_ne looks the most suspicious to me- On June 13 2012 09:43 O.Golden_ne wrote:On June 13 2012 09:25 austinmcc wrote:
-snip
I'm not looking to push lurkers early and stay on them for an entire day cycle, killing discussion, but they need to be considered and I'd rather be looking at them on earlier days than when we're close to/at LYLO/MYLO. agreed. NL is bad. Killing lurking is necessary. Lynching scum is great. Lets get the ball rolling and squeeze out the lurkers early so we can narrow things down later on. Looking forward to scumhunting, i'm happy with the deadline on this as its 10am for me in Aust, which means i'll be able to meet the deadlines for lynching in the mornings a little easier. I'll try my hardest this game to meet these deadlines and to contribute useful information rather than filler. Essentially i'm all for an agressive early game. I want to be able to establish some basic reads by the end of Day one, and if theres no-one who's appropriately scummy then we lynch a lurker. Golden Is there anything even remotely helpful in this post? Everyone knows NL is bad. he seems to be posting for the sake of it also, i checked his last game, (he was townie) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=337671&user=92568 u can tell his tone is completely different, and he is generally more helpful. Think of it like this. Scum will be making cases against people on day 1...they have to. I looked at all the cases people have made, and this one stank especially bad. It's built entirely around a hello post. It has a very artificial feel to it. Also, he just posted this: Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 08:47 HeavOnEarth wrote:On June 14 2012 08:38 s0Lstice wrote:
Just checking in guys. I'm going to make a post on my top scumreads in a few hours, as well as some errata. Lynch time is fast approaching and we really need to buckle down. ? lynch isn't for another 24 hours? Townies always feel the pressure of the ticking clock. Half of our time being gone doesn't seem to trouble him. He hasn't really bothered to comment on what's been going on in the thread outside of his own reads. He's been on Mouldy Jeb's case as well. Here's some more recent(!) material: Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 09:32 HeavOnEarth wrote:
was sort of waiting for MJ to post something after he was like hurr durr ima post soon. i took a look at his previous game though and his posts seem consistent from when he was townie. hes really not helping at all, and definitely still looks scum, but it feels like poor town play rather than mafia. Confused? Me too. I think this dude has a chance at flipping scum. and this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 00:50 s0Lstice wrote:
Some housekeeping stuff first..
I am removing alan133 from my scum list. The main thing that had me suspicious was his strong-arm defense, but everything following that has been fine. I like that he is holding himself accountable for his style, and I want to see what he can do when not under pressure.
austin and suki have commented on crossfire99, and I have to say I agree. I was planning on wrighting a post similar to what suki has done. The cogent point is that he has long bouts of inactivity when he is both scum and town. He should get the same level of suspicion that every lurker gets, but nothing special beyond that I feel. His filter right now is pretty garbagey, and hard to get a read on. I wouldn't be upset if we lynched him, but I think we can do better.
Here is better: HeavOnEarth. Nothing has happened to change my initial opinion on him for the better. In fact, him buddying up to sciberbia in his latest post makes him look worse. Go read my case if you missed it. I'm not the only one to see him as suspicious, so I think there is plenty of traction here.
##vote HeavOnEarth . His case on Heavon was solid and good. It doesn't seem like a mafia bus attempt to me (it's too well thought out and puts legit pressure on Heavon), so I see him as a townie. Then alan joins the fun with this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 04:00 alan133 wrote:I see the current pressure are easing off from me. I also realize I has pretty much ignored everyone else except for rolf and suki. @HeavOnEarth His first few points seem disconnected. None of them relates to each other: From FoSing Golden for his opening post, + Show Spoiler +And I thought rofl@me and suki@trap was bad later jumping to accusing Mouldy Jeb (he was an easy target), and then commenting on s0ltice's preception on lynch time + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 08:47 HeavOnEarth wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 08:38 s0Lstice wrote:
Just checking in guys. I'm going to make a post on my top scumreads in a few hours, as well as some errata. Lynch time is fast approaching and we really need to buckle down. ? lynch isn't for another 24 hours? . He also state that he is waiting for responses. Upon being debunked on Gold's read, he basically dismiss it similar the way suki has dismissed her case on trap, claiming they are trying to start conversation. In suki's case, this is still believable. Before her case there was no controversy, and very little to talk about. However, when Heave posted on Gold, there were already controversies + Show Spoiler + and he ignore them altogether. I interpret his motive is to lynch a lurker over an already presented scummy player, and this can hardly be town. Very Suspicious Right now, I find Heav and MJ were the best lynch candidates, and HeavOnEarth appears to be more scummy##unvote: Suki##vote: HeavOnEarthI am off to bed, it is 3 am right here. I will get up in 4 hours so we can get a successful lynch. Another refresh reveals more post from crossfire. My opinion on him has not swayed. . He did some good analysis on Heavon and defend himself against suki well, so I feel he is townie right now. Next suki comes to the party + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 04:58 suki wrote:HeavOnEarth: Okay, something really really sticks out to me in Heavon's first post, and it's not about golden. It's this particular line: Show nested quote +also id like to point out crossfire is completely inactive, whereas in past games he was a pretty talkative little townie.
thoughts? Above, I posted my opinions on Crossfire, where I had gone through pretty much his entire filter in his two previous games, and the big thing I noted was that Crossfire LURKED very hard in his first game as blue, and somewhat lurked in the second game as red. HeavOn clearly is talking about Crossfire's game as blue, 'He was a pretty talkative little townie'. This is clearly wrong. He continues his case against Crossfire later after sciberbia brings it up. This has already been labelled as suspicious. It's a big point against him that he waited until someone else pointed fingers at Crossfire, when he had so early established a read on Crossfire - a fairly in depth read as he had even looked at Crossfire's filters from previous games. The thing is, the case HeavOn makes against crossfire disregards the previous game filters. Crossfire, as mafia, was assertive actively pushed cases against other players. He also lurked quite a bit. Show nested quote +
As for golden i admit my analysis was pretty damn bad LOL , but he didn't really have any other posts for me to provoke him with, and i still feel its a strong play to accuse lurkers of being scummy, just to get them to talk. The way he went about replying though felt really odd to me. For example, i don't really care if you're taking a few mins to write up a post. Why tell me about it(unless you're about to be majority lynched or something). Just feels off.
HeavOn votes for Golden despite saying that his case against Golden is weak. He doesn't back off however, stating that the response was scummy and that the scummy thing about it was how golden was commenting on the time it would take to make his posts? Seems like a very strained argument to make. I see clear scum motivation in voting for golden. In my previous game as mafia, I harped on Miltonkram for his early vote against sciberbia. Even when my argument was convincingly rebutted, I continued to press my case against him finding any sort of scummy intent I could make up. Why? Because I didn't want to be wishy-washy. HeavOn's case against golden is that golden 'just feels off'. This makes Golden a 'solid lynch' to him. I'm out of time, but that's my insight into HeavOn. I feel that there can definitely be scum motivation behind his posts. I haven't had time to closely look at other people but for now HeavOn is clearly a scummier target than alan. ##unvote alan113##vote HeavOnEarth . Suki follows up with some more good analysis on Heavon and I see her also as town. Those three I mentioned above all brought solid analysis and new thoughts on Heavon, so I feel confident in seeing them as town for right now. Then Milton ( + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 04:59 Miltonkram wrote:
Oops, slept in a bit later than I'd planned. s0Lstice, I'm inclined to agree with you. HeavOnEarth looks like the best lynch candidate.
Everybody, I'd suggest you take a look at him. His filter is not particularly long, but I think there is enough scummy behavior there to warrant a vote.
##Vote: HeavOnEarth ), roflwaffle ( + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 05:09 roflwaffles55 wrote:
I noticed already that his play was scummy, however I felt like it was the easy way out, I was hoping to nail a more influential scum D1, but I guess that's just new player optimism... If he flips scum, I'm not sure what kind of information we're going to gain from it as his posts don't seem to link him to anyone.. and if he flips town then all we really know is that he was a poor townie.
I'll go with the flow because he's fairly blatant with his scumminess (real word?) but I'd like to keep an eye on Crossfire, as well as keeping Mouldy Jeb in mind for a D2 lynch.
##unvote Crossfire99
##vote HeavOnEarth
I'm not sure if I'll be on tonight, I'll do my absolute best to be on in case there's a swing of opinion. ), and Golden ( + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 06:27 O.Golden_ne wrote:
in regards to HeavonEarth.
In relation to my:
a) knowing i'm town.
b) Him trying to bus me one the grounds of "seems like a solid case".
c) lacklustre contribution and no rebuttle to any arguments.
i feel like he see's a bandwagon forming and jumps on straight away.
#VOTE: HeavonEarth
i still maintain a #FOS on MouldyJeb
i still owe the group a comment on Crossfire99 but i honestly dont have time for it before work. ) all jump on the bandwagon without much new to add (not necessarily scummy in and of itself, there is only so much one can add based on one day's filter). I did notice a really weird thing about roflwaffle's post, though. He's upset that we are going to get too easy of a lynch and said that he knows Heavon is suspicious but thinks it's more worthwhile to attack someone with more influence like me (huh?, I've been under suspicion all day, if anything that makes people look at me more closely, there's no way I'm going to be influential). Also, his suspicion of Heavon up to that point consists of this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 02:44 roflwaffles55 wrote:
I'm going to post as though all of these people are scum, and the impact they have a chance to make if they are left alive. I think it will give a different way of thinking about it.
HeavOnEarth
His play is quite suspicious and his accusations and suspicions lackluster at best. He could just as easily be an awful townie as scum.
Overall he's been fairly ineffectual, but if he's hiding behind a mask of confusion and bad reads, he could be an annoyance as scum later on.
I believe that the most lynchable potential scum right now would be Crossfire99. I understand that there are already votes on HeavOnEarth, but if he really is that incompetent at bringing cases to the table, as a scum, why would he try to post them? He is suspicious to me, but not as suspicious as Crossfire. Unless he responds to the accusations in a convincing and collected manner soon, I strongly believe that he should be lynched.
##vote Crossfire99 . All of this suspicion came after solstice's case against Heavon and he adds nothing new to it except postulating that he could be an awful townie (we now know that's not true). This makes me suspicious of roflwaffle. This is followed by sciberbia's vote + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 07:56 sciberbia wrote:My thoughts on HeavOnEarth: I was originally somewhat suspicious of him for throwing suspicion onto a handful of easy targets, and then becoming wishy/washy about it. He has since made me more suspicious with his response and attitude towards golden. Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 20:15 HeavOnEarth wrote:
As for golden i admit my analysis was pretty damn bad LOL , but he didn't really have any other posts for me to provoke him with, and i still feel its a strong play to accuse lurkers of being scummy, just to get them to talk. The way he went about replying though felt really odd to me. For example, i don't really care if you're taking a few mins to write up a post. Why tell me about it(unless you're about to be majority lynched or something). Just feels off. First of all, he admits that his case was "pretty damn bad" and LOL's about it. I see this as slightly scummy. He is being ingratiating and agreeable, rather than firm, objective, and analytic. This is more typical of mafia than of townies. Next HeavOnEarth says that there were no other posts to provoke Golden with. The question I'm left asking myself is: why did HeavOnEarth feel that he had to attack Golden at all? He says it was strong play of him to "accuse lurkers of being scummy", but at the time of HeavOnEarth's accusation, golden didn't look lurky. Golden made 1 post in the first 4 hours of the game, and then HeavOnEarth accused him. 1 decent-sized post in the first 4 hours isn't lurky. Why was HeavOnEarth looking for a reason to "provoke him"? Finally, heavOnEarth refuses to back down from his suspicions of golden, and even ends up voting golden, but doesn't give any good reasons. He just says that golden's posting seems odd. Odd =/= scummy. It looks like he just arbitrarily picked a target to attack at the beginning and now won't back down. Overall, I think he has a good chance of being mafia and I'm happy with lynching him. ##Vote HeavOnEarth . He gives some good reasoning for his vote, but I feel it is too late in the bandwagon to say this makes him townie. It could be a mafia finally realizing that his partner is done for and needs to jump on to be less suspicious. I'll leave this as a null read for now. Then austin comes in and votes for me with this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 08:28 austinmcc wrote:I think Heavon looks scummy. But his voting took off after he posted that he was going to be gone for auto repairs. And there's been very little pushback. I'm particularly worried by: (1) us going for the guy who basically said "Won't be around to defend myself," and (2) the lack of any pushback against him, when we had multiple targets recently. There could be some bussing going on, but we had a couple other juicy targets, and I wouldn't expect a bus in that situation. At the very least, my stance right now is that he doesn't look good, but the vast majority of the votes and comments on him seem to have occurred after he said he was leaving. I don't want to lynch him today based on that alone. See your comment towards him. Yes, his reads would help town. Yes, he ought to defend himself. But he may actually have been gone these last few hours, and I want to see his response before I lynch him. If it looks bad, there's D2. I think I'm saying the same thing over and over, so I'll knock it off. Apart from those basic statements, I'll note this. He DOES fit into a category of people trying to look like they're scumhunting but not. The 1 post suspicion of Golden, his comment on MJ - Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 02:39 HeavOnEarth wrote:check out Mouldy Jeb's posts, and accusations On June 14 2012 00:20 Mouldy Jeb wrote:
nope roffle that was a gut feeling about you that why I stated I have no evidence Why would someone try to direct suspicions with NO reasoning? his chiming in on crossfire - + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 20:15 HeavOnEarth wrote:@Sciberbia in addition to what u said on crossfire, notice that he 1) only replies when called out. Every message he is replying to someone, not making his own points aside from his opening. 2) Every one of his posts feels like complete filler to me. he is trying to LOOK helpful, without actively contributing anything + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 02:06 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 02:00 roflwaffles55 wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 01:56 Crossfire99 wrote:Just woke up. I'll start with that only as a last resort will I be for lynching a lurker Day 1. If we can get some good scum hunting done Day 1 we will have a more productive lynch than just a random lurker. Now onto what has been happening. On the whole suki and trapdoor issue: + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 12:44 suki wrote:Is it just me or is trackd00r coming off as scummy already? Show nested quote +
If I understood correctly, it doesn't mean that I would stop any lynch that I didn't mention on my analysis. Just because I have a candidate for lynch, it doesn't imply that I discard any other possibility.
It's something related to common sense. If any other cases are convincing enough, I'll throw my vote there in the case I can't get a majority. In the other hand, if we end up like RNG lynching (which is a bad idea), any other poster that could be doing silly mistakes, or even a player practically saying ''hey guys, I'm mafia, lynch me'' that's when it goes against my mindset. Any possibility is valuable, but if there is something absurdly wrong, I'll call it, even if that means a no lynch.
This post screams to me that he's trying to be super cautious with his words, so that he'll have a safety net if/when he ever changes a vote or bandwagons on someone else. He throws out some 'obvious' examples of reasons of what wouldn't agree with him, and even mentions that he would follow through on a read, even if it that means a no lynch.BUT WAIT! Just ONE post previous to that he says this: Show nested quote +I won't accept a NO LYNCH unless I believe we may have a serious mislynch coming. ... Dude. You try to take a firm stance against something, and then you do the most scummy wishy-washy-ness thing ever the very next post. You're clearly informed about mafia as you brought up the idea of a day 1 RNG lynch, and being against a no lynch is not a difficult or complicated policy to hold. I feel that such a simple logical slip only happens if you're trying to play it safe and keep your options open. ##vote trackd00r I think suki was just being aggressive. I admit that I found trapdoor's response post to be weird, but then I realized that English is probably not his native language, so I reread it a few times. I don't see a contradiction in there, he is just explaining that he would try to stop a lynch that he really believed was on a townie. I'll give suki the benefit of the doubt on this case and say she is an over eager townie for now. On roflwaffle and alan: + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 22:28 roflwaffles55 wrote:I woke up this morning to the arguments made towards trackd00r, and while the arguments made against him weren't particularly convincing, his defense was a little bit lackluster as well. However, I would like to bring your attention to someone else that is acting quite scummy as it stands. Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 13:05 alan133 wrote:On June 13 2012 11:12 roflwaffles55 wrote:On June 13 2012 11:03 alan133 wrote:
Good morning everyone. Looks like the first thing I am going to do in the office is to play mafia on TL. I don't recognize anyone here since this is my first game, well except for s0Lsitce since he is in the game I read. That's my brief introduction, and habitually in the beginning of any game, GLHF.
I am new and am unsure how to proceed with the game, but my current strategy is to wait for more post to come. Currently I have no FoS. That also mean I do not trust anyone yet. What are your thoughts on what's been posted as of yet? On the inactive/lurkers lynch + Show Spoiler +
I believe inactive players/lurkers are generally anti-town/bad town play in any mafia game, so lynching them isn't a bad idea (Since I believe d1 lynch is good, refer below), if there aren't better candidates of course.
On the day 1 lynch/no lynch + Show Spoiler +
I agree on lynching day 1 based on my experience with other mafia games (outside TL) with similar setup. By reading other games on TL I also notice the current meta game is to lynch when there are more players, as it gives townies clues.
I am off to lunch, will be commenting on my thoughts later as I see some interesting posts/votes already. His first post puts him on the bandwagon with his opinion on the inactives and lurkers, and is generally a contentless post with little to no controversy. Otherwise, nothing to bring the spotlight to him at all. While this is not by any means evidence of scummy play, there comes to attention the next post he makes. Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 15:40 alan133 wrote:My thoughts on suki's case: + Show Spoiler +Any possibility is valuable, but if there is something absurdly wrong, I'll call it, even if that means a no lynch. I won't accept a NO LYNCH unless I believe we may have a serious mislynch coming. I started writing before I refresh and saw s0lstice's post. As he already pointed it out, there are no contradictions between the two statements. trackd00r merely states that NL is bad unless it is a "serious" mislynch in both highlighted sentence. If I am missing something, please correct me. Also, Miltonkram: + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 10:35 Miltonkram wrote:
Hey all, glad to see we've got a bit of activity already.
In NMM XV we actually had a decent discussion about no-lynches (involving me making a fool of myself) and how they can actually be beneficial in certain setups. That being said, we don't know for certain if we'll have any modkills so we should leave no-lynches off the table until we hit the unlikely scenario that a no-lynch is beneficial for the town.
Town, the best way to contribute is just to get posting. Let everyone know what your thoughts are. Did someone post something suspicious? Let us know about it. Do you think the town is making a bad move? Let us know about it. If a townie lurks he/she is letting down his/her entire team. So don't do it, K? I'm sooooooooper serious. Like sooooper, soooooooooooper serious.
Hey sciberbia, remember this
##Vote: sciberbia
...heh heh heh
Is it me or you are not actually + Show Spoiler +soooooooooooooooooper serious ? I personally think (well played) townies are not the ones that bluffs around, let alone voting someone without any reason at all? Generally, fooling around, to me, is anti-town/ bad town play. My current opinion + Show Spoiler +FMPOV, suki's case was most probably based on a misunderstanding, but (s)he could very well did it intentionally hoping for a bandwagon leading to a mislynch. Note that I am merely listing the possibilities, I do not FoS anyone yet, which can also mean that I do not trust anyone yet. This is the post that really got me wondering. How by now can you have no suspicions? There has been quite a few suspicious decisions by several people, giving you more then enough time to form a case against someone, or at least apply some pressure. His statement about trackd00r comes after s0lstice, leaving his opinion tied to a fairly influential player and just reiterating what s0lstice said with no additional evidence or opinionated comments. Again, seeming like he's contributing without actually bringing anything to the table. He throws around some suspicion towards Miltonkram, however not enough to constitute a case or apply any pressure, just enough to make people go filter milton and consider what he might have done, which yet again, leaves him out of the spotlight. The last statement he makes in this post is the most suspicious and the largest tell of his indecision and lack of real input. He restates his opinion that suki's case is a misunderstanding, again, nothing of value. He then continues to explain that he has no FoS and that he doesn't trust anyone, leaving his options open, and having no real contrary opinions. His current play is anti-town at best, as he hasn't brought any of his thoughts to the table, and has only left ambiguous and bandwagoning answers to keep attention on those with controversial opinions. I think roflwaffle is jumping a little too hard on alan here. It is like 1/3 of the way through Day 1. We are not going to have a lot to work with and consequently we aren't going to really know what to think of people until we get more information. Therefore, I feel alan is playing smartly by not rushing to find every little thing that might possibly be suspicious and throw a vote on someone because of it. On Milton: He was just joking around. If he doesn't stop then I'll start getting suspicious of him. As for my current thoughts: The bolded part of this post by austin makes me suspicious of him. + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 22:23 austinmcc wrote:
I don't read those posts as contradictory, believe the second one clarifies the first and explains that, while he'd consider a NL, the standard is higher than "Town is lynching someone that isn't one of my top couple reads."
That said, even if the two statements are entirely contradictory, I don't really see anything scummy in that. More inclined to see contradictions concerning votes and reads as scummy, where someone has stated one thing but then has to take a party line, rather than super early statements concerning a no lynch. There's no agenda to push on that issue. Two completely contradictory statements without reasoning for the change is very suspicious. This is a good way to catch scum. They know the alignment of every person, so they have to make cases that they know are wrong (excluding bussing). This can lead to contradictory posts to make them better fit in with the current town mindset. Austin, why don't you think that contradictory statements are suspicious? We need more information, and the only way to get that information is by pressuring people, scum starts with an information advantage and the faster we work to even that out, the better position we'll be in. I agree that we need more information and we get that from pressuring people, but we need to do that smartly. If too many people are throwing around minor accusations all the time, it just confuses the town and allows mafia to sit back and laugh. That is what happened in NMM XIII when I was mafia. Ask austin, he was in it too. On June 14 2012 03:38 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 02:45 s0Lstice wrote:
Crossfire99, what do you think of what I said about Mouldy Jeb?
Roflwaffles55, same question. Yeah Mouldy is acting really weird. He needs to get active to explain himself. Everything he has said so far lacks good reasoning. On June 14 2012 03:50 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 03:24 s0Lstice wrote:On June 14 2012 02:02 Crossfire99 wrote:
--snipped
Be careful roflwaffle, votes are only easily removable if you are around to remove them. You never know what might happen. Also, votes early on in the day cycle that don't really mean much followed by complete disappearance during a controversial lynch can be scum tactic to avoid making mistakes in a heated debate that occurs last minute.
What an odd thing to say. Your message boils down to: don't vote because you might not be around later, and when that happens you are going to look scummy. Discouraging voting for such an arbitrary reason looks kind of scummy. Also, this hall-monitor stuff is a comfortable way for scum to post and have it look like they are pro-town. I never said don't vote. I just said be careful about throwing your votes around willy-nilly under the premise that you are going to remove them later. I never even said don't do that. I just don't want someone sticking someone else with a vote for flimsy reasons that ends up sealing a lynch because they couldn't get back in time to change it. That was the entire point of those two sentences. As for the mention of the scum tactic, I'm just saying that sometimes scum can not take part in big discussions later in the day by voting early and then disappearing. I'm just trying to help roflwaffle, by trying to get him to think about taking his vote seriously and having good reasons for whatever he does. If no one holds anyone accountable mafia can just breeze on by. 3) notice his defensive, and meek tone; in addition to his low post count. he's obviously afraid to attract attention to himself 4) he was lurking for a LONGGG time before he finally decided to post . What u thought we all forgot about that? Not much there. His bit on crossfire is way more robust than his bit on golden or MJ, but still doesn't feel like a whole lot of scumhunting for a day. Again though, I want to wait on him.
That leaves me with cross. ##Vote: Crossfire99What I'd ask of everyone is to show me where Crossfire has done any scumhunting. He posted a little, dropped off the face of the earth, came back, responded to everyone's comments towards him, but never even gave us a single read throughout the day. Nobody looked scummy, because he really just didn't comment on ANYONE. I'm confused as to how that can be towny behavior, and he dropped in, spent time responding to all these people, but spent 0 characters doing any kind of hunting himself. Lurking is bad, but you can lurk and contribute when you pop up. HeavOnEarth didn't contribute when he came back. Crossfire didn't contribute when he came back, except addressing our concerns about him. Between the timing of the votes on HeavOn and the lack of any push on him, I'd rather go with Crossfire today. . Like I mentioned earlier, I think austin's reasoning when related to me gets clouded a little by our last game. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now and hopefully he'll come around, but if he continues this tunneling unnecessarily then I'll have to reconsider. Trackdoor then comes in and votes last with this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 08:52 trackd00r wrote:
I was checking Heaven's filter.
I must admint that he looks suspicious at this stage of the game. I was expecting from him a more detailed analysis of his play, since he stated that he has more experience in playing mafia.
I dislike the fact that he took the most easy target to pressure (golden), instead of trying to outline the other players, He also adds some points against CF, but isn't really big of a deal.
Although I share some suspicions with him, I see that he is not contributing at the same level as the rest of us are. I don't really think that it will be that much of a loss if he flips town. If that is the case, he have a whole post history behind us too see who bandwagoned and who tried to hunt down mafia
As I don't want a NL, I'll change my vote to heaven.
##Unvote: O.Golden_ne
##Vote: HeavOnEarth . He is now just jumping on the obvious bandwagon. I'll give a null read on this until I can go through his filter. I think that leaves everyone except for me and Heavon. I won't even bother quoting Heavon. He just went with a weak vote on Golden and then got lynched. And I missed the lynch for the reasons stated above. Ok. That's all the time I have for now (I should have gone to bed an hour and a half ago, but whatever). I don't know if I'll be back in time before the night ends to post some more thoughts, so consider this my contribution for now. If I survive the lynch, I'll look into roflwaffle's filter and get a better read on him. I encourage you all to do the same and let me know what you think whether you agree or disagree. On June 15 2012 14:49 alan133 wrote:
I am going to write a post. I am aware that my writing speed is some what slow, so I am going to post a short summary of what is about to come.
@mouldy/unforgiven_ve swap - my thoughts
@sciberbia - my slight suspicion due to his discussion about night actions.
@suki and rolf "conspiracy theory"- dismissing it
@my thought on O.Golden_ne vs austinmcc. My suspicion on Golden has grown while austinmcc's filters strikes me as being town.
@my prime suspect - roflwaffle55, please look at my reasoning before judging if I have a bias. I am aware I focused on him and suki a lot and seems to be counter attacking hard. I don't see why I should hide my suspicion just because I fear people will take it wrongly. Judge my reasoning!!
I have not focused on other players yet, I will post my content soon.
Unfortunately for him, though, his day 2 play starts showing some more obvious signs of scumminess. he goes from against the vigi claiming but still kinda wishy-washy and ultimately not caring in these posts + Show Spoiler + On June 16 2012 09:16 sciberbia wrote:
@s0lstice
I don't think it makes too much a difference whether vigi claims or not. Vigi will obviously claim if in danger of being lynched, and we will obviously believe them unless there is a cc (in which case it's gg). So the only way vigi can ever get lynched is if it comes down to 3/4 players left and the scum fakeclaims vigi. So I don't think it can possibly hurt for vigi to wait until 5/6 players left before claiming.
I think there is a very slight benefit to vigi not claiming today. The benefit is that scum has fewer good NK options.
Overall, I think it'd be very slightly beneficial for vigi to wait till 5/6 players left before claiming. But it's not at all a big deal, and if vigi judges that the knowledge that they (the vigi) is confirmed is helpful to town, I have no problem with that. On June 16 2012 09:57 sciberbia wrote:
crap just realized there could potentially be two vigis. So my previous thoughts about cc'ing vigi and scum fakeclaiming vigi don't fully apply. Still, I think it is most likely that there is only 1 vigi, and I don't think it really matters whether or not he claims today. On June 16 2012 14:44 sciberbia wrote:Just a couple of small things before I sleep. @alan I really wouldn't be suspicious of s0Lstice just for suggesting that the vigi claim. As he explained, it really isn't that big of a deal. thoughts on NK (or lack thereof) + Show Spoiler +
I've been trying, but I can't think of any likely explanation for the mafia's choice to NK austinmcc. So I'm pretty much just going to disregard the NK.
@s0Lstice
as a point of fact, austinmcc did voice some suspicions against suki yesterday. But I don't think that is really indicative of anything anyway.
check your PM's to see if you were RB'd + Show Spoiler +
If you were RB'd and you don't think you were a target of the jailkeeper (not a top 2 or 3 NK candidate) you should claim it now. No reason to wait in claiming this. And it tells us that the last mafia is a roleblocker (assuming you're telling the truth)
I'm going to sleep now. I'll be going over filters and doing analysis during the day tomorrow. You can expect some posts from me on lynch candidates within 18 to 24 hours. On June 17 2012 05:31 sciberbia wrote:
Just got up.
First of all, alan has claimed vigilante. if anybody else is vigilante, you should claim NOW.
@s0Lstice
I do not like your plan. It completely disregards night actions and also prevents us from making better reads based on what people post. There's a pretty decent chance we have a cop, and we surely have at least 1 power role. I think we'd have a good chance to win with your plan, but it's not guaranteed. It's the lazy way to go, and we have an even better chance to win by continuing discussion, making reads, and getting information from night actions. Also, why are you so suspicious of unforgiven/MJ?
I'm going to start looking at the cases on trackd00r, golden, and suki. On June 17 2012 06:30 sciberbia wrote:
@s0Lstice, alan
It is unlikely, but there could potentially be two real vigilantes. I only realized this last night. So if anybody else wants to claim vigi, they should do so right now.
about the plan
I think we are all making a big deal out of nothing here. Any reasonable actions from this point lead us to 90+% town win. s0Lstice made a list of the 4 people most likely to be mafia (in his opinion), and proposed that we lynch all of them. That's pretty reasonable. But it kind of goes without saying that we will lynch the most scummy people. So the "plan" isn't really deviation from what we would do anyway. So I don't think it matters much whether we "agree" on the plan or not.
I don't think all this talk about the plan is very productive. Practically, I think it's hard enough to agree on one person to lynch, let alone four. And it's all subject to change anyway with information from night actions. So I suggest we just stop talking about the plan. Anyway, I'm just going through filters and making reads.
@alan
I highly doubt s0Lstice is mafia..
Note: I had to break this post up into 2 parts because it was too long. Lol.
|
Part 2
During day 2 he focuses like most people on suki and trackdoor. We know trackdoor is town and suki is more up in the air, but I feel less confident in her case then this one on sciberbia. The important thing to note about his play is how he begins night 2 + Show Spoiler + On June 18 2012 11:59 sciberbia wrote:
@s0Lstice
I'll post more later. For now, what are your opinions on miltonkram? On June 18 2012 12:36 s0Lstice wrote:
The thought ran through my head that if suki actually flipped town, I might want to lynch milton next. That was just a passing thought though. I'm on my phone right now, so I'll just post stuff that I got in short term memory.
His joke vote on you would be a weird thing for scum to do. A needless risk for early game. I don't remember the exact chronology but I think he was pretty early to push heavonearth. I'll look through his filter in depth tomorrow, but I've been getting a pretty good town vibe from him. On June 18 2012 12:44 sciberbia wrote:@alan I don't think mass roleclaim is a good idea. If we have a cop, we probably don't have a medic/jailkeepr, so I don't want to make cop come out before he judges it's the right time. Also, it's a semi-open setup, so it's pretty damn hard to figure out if anyone is lying. Anyway, I've been kidna panicking a bit after seeing the trackd00r flip. I was looking foward to enjoying some post game talk, but now I'll just be happy if I don't feel like an idiot after this game. Anyway, here are some reads on the 7 players left not named sciberbia: short version: + Show Spoiler +
alan - confirmed vigi
MJ/unforgiven - probably town
golden - probably town
s0Lstice - probably town
crossfire - probably town
miltonkram - idk
suki - kinda scummy
long version: alan + Show Spoiler +
confirmed vigi. Nobody else claimed the shot, and somebody obviously did it, so alan is for sure vigi.
golden + Show Spoiler +
I'd be pretty shocked if golden were mafia. I honestly haven't even looked at his filter that much, but just from looking at roflwaffles's filter, I don't think golden can be mafia.
crossfire + Show Spoiler +
Both confirmed scum attacked him, and tried to get him lynched. Also, the two confirmed scum are failry newbie (no offense) so I just don't see this as being a bus. Pretty definite he is town.
MJ/unforgiven + Show Spoiler +
Nothing in these 2 filters is of much value, but as s0Lstice pointed out, both confirmed scum had no problem dumping suspicion on MJ. So I think it's pretty unlikely that he is scum.
s0Lstice + Show Spoiler +
Hmm I guess it's possbile that s0Lstice just bussed the crap out of the other scum, and in hindsight it probably would have been a smart strategy for him to pull as mafia. And s0Lstice is a pretty smart player.
But he has played about as pro-town as you can get and his whole filter gives me a townie feel. I'm slightly paranoid that he could be mafia, but I really just don't see it.
miltonkram + Show Spoiler +
I'm not saying that he looks really scummy, but I don't see why he can't be scum. The only major thing in his favor is his pretty good accusations of HeavOnEarth during D1. But I could maybe see him making that bus. I'll write more about him in another post.
suki + Show Spoiler +
I feel it's pretty likely that suki is the last mafia. I've already written a lot on her case.
The only things really holding me back are the NK of austinmcc and her high activity D2. But I don't see how we can not lynch her just based on that. Maybe she just wanted to see if she could avoid one more lynch for the lulz? Idk..
So in response to s0Lstice's query, I'm totally down with lynching suki D3 (sorry suki).
On June 18 2012 13:51 sciberbia wrote:The case against miltonkramI think that suki is most likely to be the last scum. But if she flips town, the next person I'd want to lynch would be miltonkram. I don't think he's especially scummy, but he is not at the almost-definite-town status at which I place every player besides him and suki. I'm writing this case against him because nobody else seems to want to lynch him, and I'm worried he could survive to the end of the game as mafia. First of all, I grant that his playstyle seems similar to his town from NMM XV, and that his filter gives off a townie vibe. But that's not conclusive evidence. Not the same level townie-evidence as for people like crossfire, golden, or MJ, who were mercilessly attacked by 2 confirmed scum on D1. miltonkram's stances during D1 + Show Spoiler +ordering is roughly chronological trackdoor - neutral suki - suspicious crossfire - suspicious alan - "fairly decent" case against him roflwaffles - suspicious, but then backs off MJ - #1 on scumdar alan - very suspicious, but then backs off HeavOnEarth - would vote, then votes His suspicions on roflwaffles don't do anything to clear him in my mind. Nobody was really suspicious of roflwaffles at that point, and miltonkram backed off his suspicions reasonably quickly, so roflwaffles wasn't really in any danger based on miltonkram's actions. Otherwise, he throws suspicion onto a bunch of people that are town (assuming milton is last mafia): suki, crossfire, alan (kinda), MJ. This isn't damning but isn't exactly comforting either. Helping to Lynch HeavOnEarthMiltonkram does contribute to the lynch of HeavOnEarth, by putting HeavOnEarth into his "top 3" after only me and s0Lstice have accused him, and then applying the third vote to HeavOnEarth. This is certainly evidence in favor of miltonkram being town, but I could maybe see him pulling the bus as mafia. It would honestly be the smart move. And it wouldn't be the riskiest bus ever or anything. He originally listed HeavOnEarth as 1 of a list of 3, and it was after s0Lstice and I accused him already -- pretty safe townies to side with, but a bandwaggon of 3 doesn't assure a lynch. To me, a miltonkram bus of HeavOnEarth seems by far the most likely out of all possible busses.Putting the third vote on HeavOnEarth would definitely be a ballsy move, but maybe he judged it was the best choice. And if he is mafia, it probably was. Also here's some food for thought: On June 17 2012 11:17 Miltonkram wrote:
Maybe this is too WIFOMy, but I feel like the safe play for scum would have been to have one player voting HeavOnEarth in order to gain some of the town cred in case he got lynched and one player voting someone else in order to keep a little momentum towards a possible mislynch. This isn't a strong point, so my opinions aren't the only things hinging on this.
about the NK (worth reading I think) + Show Spoiler +@s0Lstice First of all, as a point of fact, austinmcc did voice suspicions of suki during D1, so your logic as to why suki might have killed austinmcc doesn't hold. This is the the second time I've gotten the feeling you don't thoroughly read my posts. Tsk Tsk. Maybe it's a sign I shouldn't write so much :p Anyway, I've been thinking and thinking and thinking about the NK. It doesn't make a lot of sense no matter who ordered it. + Show Spoiler +But actually now that I think about it, all of the sensible NK targets voiced suspicions of suki: me, s0Lstice, alan, miltonkram. So maybe suki would have found some reason to kill austinmcc. Anyway, the best explanation I have come up with for the hit on austinmcc is that the last mafia thought that they could avoid getting lynched as long as there was no cop. And for whatever reason they thought austinmcc might be cop. Miltonkram is someone who can reasonably hope to avoid being lynched without a cop. But he was honestly a pretty good cop check last night. So maybe that's why he picked austinmcc over me/s0Lstice/alan. austinmcc does seem most likely to be cop out of those 4. Also, miltonkram was gone almost the entire night. Him being scum would totally fit into my theory about scum not submitting their NK until the last minute. Also look at this post from miltonkram. I found this to be really bad advice the second I read it. The point of a breadcrumb is for people not to notice it. Maybe he was fishing for the cop? On June 16 2012 07:34 Miltonkram wrote:
EBWOP:Breadcrumb your actions right at the end of the night. That way scum don't have a chance to catch your breadcrumb before they send in their night actions. Finally, this isn't exactly related to Miltonkram, but I think it's quite possible that the last mafia is roleblocker and RB'd austin last night. This would work out great for mafia if austin was vigi/cop/veteran. And it doesn't let us know the presence of a roleblocker. Maybe the mafia felt austin looked blue, and that's why he died? -- I am for lynching suki, and then miltonkram if she flips town -- This isn't so much because miltonkram looks scummy, but that everyone else looks townie -- I am obsessed with figuring out why austinmcc died, and I have a possible explanation P.S. Every single time suki posts, I feel worse and worse about lynching her. But I think she is the only sensible choice. P.P.S. @Miltonkram don't feel obliged to write a defense post to this. There's honestly not much to explain as most of your actions make good sense for a townie. Assuming we don't win D3, you'd have to convince me somebody else is more scummy than you for me not to push you D4. Maybe you could explain the breadcrumbing comment though. Finally, this isn't exactly related to Miltonkram, but I think it's quite possible that the last mafia is roleblocker and RB'd austin last night. This would work out great for mafia if austin was vigi/cop/veteran. And it doesn't let us know the presence of a roleblocker. Maybe the mafia felt austin looked blue, and that's why he died?
I feel this is enough to show that sciberbia has been acting scummy.
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On June 18 2012 14:05 suki wrote:
Yeah. Welcome to bizarro bus world. You're here already you just don't know it yet
Both roflwaffle and heavonearth do not strike me as that sophisticated of players. Thus, I don't think that there was any plan for cooperation from the start between the two dead scum and our last remaining one.
The most likely scenario is that Scum #3 is a strong player, who decided that it would be in his best interest to bus both of his teammates early to gain extreme townie cred. This strategy worked well in XV with Xatalos taking the win, although he did make some slips early on that could have exposed him if people had looked into him more in depth. Of course, an early bus or even double bus is so risky for mafia that it seems really unlikely, but that is the situation we are in now.
It doesn't matter if you believe me now. When I flip, you can come back to these words and think carefully.
---
The most important lesson to be learned in mafia XV was that the pattern of night kills, and townie's impressions of night kills, was very important to discovering that Xatalos was the last mafia.
If player X was heavily tunneling player Y, and player X gets shot, does that mean player Y was scum? or maybe thats just what scum wants you to think. The town attitude in XV was that decyphering the meaning behind night kills was so WIFOMy that it wasn't worth doing. This lead to mafia being able to shoot the strongest player every night without fear of having the night shot analysed. At the very end, Xatalos shot the one person who was against him, thus securing a win because he knew the other two remaining players wouldn't analyse the shot and realize that the shot only made sense if he made it, not the #1 suspect at the time.
We saw austinmcc get shot N1. Someone will get shot N2. These shots have meaning, and just because it's WIFOMy doesn't mean its not worth discussing.
If the last remaining mafia was bold enough to start the game with a double bus, they most likely won't slip, and they might not even have any suspicious behaviour if they are good enough. The last remaining source of information is the pattern of NK's. Don't forget that.
Just letting people know that posts after these weren't here when I posted my case. Hmmm. I hadn't thought of night kills like that before, but I still think that with the possible skill of the last scum, they might be able to WIFOM argue the reasoning they want town to see even if it is harder. I will have to think about this more though.
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There's no point to really think about the night kills yet, as there's only been one (soon to be two).
The important thing is if the game starts getting closer to the end, it because really important to analyse the night kills and not just WIFOM it all away.
And also, it's highly highly probable that there's a scum slip somewhere, no matter how good they are. So just keep looking for those slips and keep the night kills in mind for later.
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EBWOP: The most important thing is if the game starts getting closer to the end, it becomes really important to analyse the night kills and not just WIFOM it all away.
dont know how i messed that up.
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The biggest issue that I have with a scum sciberbia is his insta-bus of roflwaffles after the day 1 lynch.
roflwaffles wasn't under heavy scrutiny at that point. scum sciberbia has no real motivation to bus his last teammate so quickly, with a case so strong that it basically would have killed all conversation for Day 2 (had vigi not shot him).
Also, I don't see scum sciberbia shooting austin. Since sciberbia already had a lot of townie cred, it would have made a lot more sense to shoot someone like s0lstice, or alan or even trackd00r (the latter two showing non-commital, defensive play much like a blue would play). He wouldn't need to make a confusing kill. He could play straightforward and shoot obvious targets.
Well, we'll see how N2 turns out. I only gave your case on sciberbia a quick once-over. A more in depth analysis will have to wait for tomorrow.
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@suki
I wrote a post without writing my agenda first, I started a long time but later I saw crossfire's post. I did not intended to write anything against sciberbia even though I find him acting "weird", and only wanted to say "if sciberbia and s0Lstice lived through the end, be wary of them". After seeing crossfire's post, I decided to add on to what I find sciberbia weird.
About day 2
Even before sciberbia did not point out rolfwaffles, I am already debating with myself if I should shoot him, and I consulted my mentors if I should just shoot someone I am convinced is scum, or just spare him and see if he leaks the 3rd scum. I was quite sure rolfwaffle is scum reading his scum slip post, and that happens just as I was reading a mafia guide on how to find scum slips, and the example provided in that guide is strikingly similar to what rolfwaffle said. Given that, a scum scriberia, will probably pick that up and recognize rolfwaffle's slip cannot be savior, why not point it out himself? I can see why rolfwaffle did not post at all after his "yay mafia died" post. I assume he is told by a stronger player to stop posting in care he leaks anything else.
I will try to finish my post.
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EBWOP:
I meant to say night 1, not day 2.
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@s0Lstice
On June 18 2012 13:00 s0Lstice wrote:
Suki, you are saying then that HeavOnEarth, confirmed scum, began bussing his teammate in his very first post, and spent his entire time in this game trying to get his teammate lynched.
Please explain this.
I am the one who said that. I noticed how HeavonEarth started his post by writing a case on O.Golden_ve. He went so far to post a link to Golden's filter from another game. That is when Golden posted only once. HeavonEarth's first post seemed confident that Golden is mafia. Why would a Godfather do that? I am betting my money that if he lead a successful lynch on Golden, he would have gain tremendous amount of trust, and he cops, if they exist, will get a false read by checking him.
He did not attempt to call out any other player. He bandwagoned on Crossfire when austin called him out. He then went back to voting Gold without a reason. I thought trackd00r has a high chance to flip scum since he also voted on Golden D1 based on my reasoning, even though it seems too obvious to me, but I was wrong of course.
I analysed rolf's filter, and there is one player that was never ever mentioned in his posts, not even in the content of his direct quotes: O.Golden_ve. In his post [spoiler]that he slipped hard, about how "dangerous" is it to not lynch someone, he soft defended HeavonEarth. While what I am going to say may seem sketchy, he had suki in it, but he did not mention Golden_ve. He also said that we can't get anything out of HeavonEarth's posts even if he flips mafia, which tickles my curiosity. He forgotten Heavon's accusation on Gold.
It also seems like everyone thinks newbie mafias are not likely to conduct a bus, I beg to defer. That is like saying bronze/silver/gold players are less likely to cheese in a SC2 game. I don't think even a highly sophisticated player wants to bus both of his player in day 1 given the time needed to win. The closer to the end the worse he gets, unless he can kill role checking blues. Each day pass means at lease one more conformed townie (that died)
I understand how people came out with suki as the most possibly scum by the process of elimination. I think many people rule Golden out because he was tunneled by Heavon. If it came to the conclusion that scum has bussed, I would like you all the consider Golden as a potential lynch.
Also, s0Lsdice, in your argument for the process of elimination, you did not do an analysis on Suki. You simply pushed her to the end of the list, gave town reads on everyone before her, and say there's no one else. I don't like that. I know I am protecting suki hard, and if she really flips scum I will look like a total idiot, but I hope we play fair here.
Arguments for O.Golden_ve
Mafia Golden
-Golden's aggressive towards those that accuse him, unlike him in another game where he is town
-Golden's anxious in day 2 after 2 scums has died
Townie Golden
-His friendliness is consistent with his other game, other than the aggressive defense
-When I read HeavonEarth's filter, it feels like the Godfather genuinely want to push for a mislynch.
-He did contributed in bringing out ideas. His friendliness is very muck alike with my "neutral" policy. I treated everyone as potential scum and he treated everyone as potential town.
-The first 2 scums were kind of new and made very obvious mistakes, I don't think mods will assign all mafia slots to 3 weaker players. + Show Spoiler +sorry rolfwaffle, HeavonEarth and Golden. I put myself in this category so I too)
Other traits:
-HeavonEarth paid most attention to him. He flips Godfather.
-Rolfwaffle paid absolutely no attention to him. He flips goon.
-Golden talked about the lynch votes, and suggested trackd00r/Crossfire should be lynched because they did not vote for Heavon. This could be seen as defensive scum move since it rules him out of the lynch targets, but I don't think a scum Golden will be bold enough to lead a wrong lynch.
@Crossfire
I refreshed and saw Crossfire's post. I thought sciberbia acted weird at times (with different reasons) but I dismissed it because I see the "townie-ness" of sciberbia. I thought my points are going to be insignificant especially when I usually got really little supporting points, so I didn't talk about it, and I want to avoid creating too many cases and cause a confusion. I did not post a summary but I meant to say be weary of him if Golden and Suki did not flip mafia, and that he don't die.
When s0Lsdice talked about his plan, one thing comes to mind: what if the players that I have a strong town read turns out to be scum? I thought scum s0Lsdice will benefit the most from a fixed lynch, but it seems like he did not get what I wanted to say so I don't think s0Lsdice is mafia. His intention is good.
Scriberbia said he did not like the fixed lynching. I asked for Scirberbia's opinion if s0Lsdice is scum, and he simply say this:
+ Show Spoiler +On June 17 2012 06:30 sciberbia wrote:
@s0Lstice, alan
It is unlikely, but there could potentially be two real vigilantes. I only realized this last night. So if anybody else wants to claim vigi, they should do so right now.
about the plan
I think we are all making a big deal out of nothing here. Any reasonable actions from this point lead us to 90+% town win. s0Lstice made a list of the 4 people most likely to be mafia (in his opinion), and proposed that we lynch all of them. That's pretty reasonable. But it kind of goes without saying that we will lynch the most scummy people. So the "plan" isn't really deviation from what we would do anyway. So I don't think it matters much whether we "agree" on the plan or not.
I don't think all this talk about the plan is very productive. Practically, I think it's hard enough to agree on one person to lynch, let alone four. And it's all subject to change anyway with information from night actions. So I suggest we just stop talking about the plan. Anyway, I'm just going through filters and making reads.
@alan
I highly doubt s0Lstice is mafia..
My first impression is scriberbia trusted s0Lsitce a lot, but why? There is no reasoning to back up to, but I thought maybe I think too much, or there is a certain explanation to that trust.
Also, trackd00r seems to agree with me in day 1.
s0lstice: Is it my idea or you already gained trust from Sciberbia?
I also don't like his sudden jump on Suki on day 2. It seems like he has zero opinion on suki, and then suddenly jumped the gun and came out with suki. When I asked for a third target yesterday, he did not out with any.
I really dislike the Milton case. Being unsure of the situation is typical townie strait. In day 2 I am unsure of Gold and trackd00r, so I jumped back and forth, but because I am a confirmed blue, I wasn't targeted for a lynch. I also don't like how he jumped the gun and think only good players can conduct this bus. I find O.Golden scummy and it is plausible that he is involved in the bus, but sciberbia does not see any of that.
It also seems like sciberbia is constantly trying to remind everyone he is as clueless as everyone else:
-He stated that he wanted to know why austin was the target
-He asked about 3 Nks. I find this silly since he played a few games already so he should have known the rules.
I think crossfire did a good job with analyzing scribebia, I want to see the response from scribebia himself.
Summary
I think Suki is on the death toll tomorrow. I still think she is town regardless what was posted, but I will vote for her if it risks a no lynch. Remember town, 3 more mislynch for us, so never ever NL. Suki, if you are blue, please post your actions tomorrow if you can't convince them to put the votes off you. Please do so as soon as possible because not many people are around to make the switch.
I also think I am going to die tonight. I rule out controversial players and think its either me, s0ldice or Crossfire biting the bullet this time.
I don't know why suddenly everyone is suspecting each other, but this is what the mafia wants exactly. There are 7 townies and 1 scum. It is very likely anyone can be town, but it also means it is easier for scums to hide and create chaos. I think the pattern identified by cross on scibebria is very sound and fits in a well played mafia motivation.
Things that I wanted to share before but did not out with it because of fearing scums will take advantage of this, but just in case I die:
*There is a high possibility for cops to exist, although it is not 100%. Think about why Godfather exist.
Question:
Do people get a message when they are role blocked even they have no roles?
*Please out with the role block tomorrow if any.
Come to think of it, did scibebria mentioned outing rb when you were role blocked during 1st night? This seems like a day 2 action for townie, but a night action for scum
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alan133,
On June 18 2012 19:12 alan133 wrote:
Why would a Godfather do that? I am betting my money that if he lead a successful lynch on Golden, he would have gain tremendous amount of trust, and he cops, if they exist, will get a false read by checking him.
This is flawed reasoning. Why would the cop check him if he just gained a tremendous amount of trust?
Bussing happens, even in newbie games. You are right about that. Remember though that it is situational. There is almost no motivation to bus a scum teammate in the way HeavOnEarth did. He did it in his first post(!) and didn't stop until he died. You are telling me that this bussing scenario is more likely than the very typical mafia play of picking a weak townie and trying to lead a mislynch on them? Remember Occam's Razor: the simplest explanation is most likely true. This does not mean you should flat out ignore other scenario's, but you go against this axiom at your peril.
You say also that I did not analyze suki in my process of elimination post. I've already analyzed her. It was huge, I posted it on night 1. Since then she has gone after trackd00r. After trackd00r flips, look at this post.
On June 18 2012 12:56 suki wrote:My outlook on the game post-lynch: People will be taking a much closer look at me. It's to be expected, after the case that s0lstice and sciberbia brought up. I feel I pushed a good case on trackd00r and its frustrating that he wasn't able to defend himself adequately. I once again went through all the players in the game. I think I am just going to accept the hard truth that I just blow at analysis. My reasoning for tunnelling someone aggressively is that if there really are other scummy players, they will be picked out by the other townies, meanwhile my analysis will either find scum, or force townies to act more townie, or force mistakes from scum. There are two people who stand out at the moment in my opinion: --- Mouldyjeb/unforgiven:+ Show Spoiler +
Both HeavOnEarth and roflwaffle were on Mouldyjeb's case since Day 1. Highly highly doubt that they would double bus their own teammate that early.
Read: unforgiven very lurky. Possibly town, possibly scum, but can't analyse due to lack of posts. He looks more townie due to mafia double bus early Day 1.
--- golden:despite saying this, he is hardly aggressive. Found Mouldyjeb suspicious. Found austinmcc suspicious but doesn't explain why. Austinmcc pressured golden for 'broken promises to contribute more'. Golden got really really offended at it. Could see an angry golden just shooting austinmcc N1 just to get back at him. Haha. Show nested quote +I only glazed over the HeavonEarth issue when i was catching up on everything. I feel like a nob because i remember he had that attack at me and i never really addressed it. I don't like defensive voting per se but i'll form and post some opinions on him shortly. forgets that heavOnEarth attacked him. Possibly just didn't give his teammate's post much thought. from crossfire's lynch summary post ( http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15090823 ), note that Golden was 6th to vote for heav0nEarth. Right in the middle of the pack is a good time for a mafia to jump on a bandwagon. Here is alan's case on golden ( http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15104147 , summary here : http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15104403 ) It is pretty in depth and I suggest people read it. . Also note that golden gave no reason for jumping on trackd00r. He simply stated he said trackd00r was #1 on his scum list and voted him. ===== In summary: I am town. That's my only defence at this point. If you believe me, then I hope you'll take a really close look at alan's case on golden. If you don't believe me, then I still hope you'll take a really close look at alan's case on golden. Going to bed soon but I'll keep up with the thread and post my thoughts. Just a little too burned out to do any sort of heavy analysis right now.
Read between the lines here. It says 'I am running out of places to hide.' She picks two people who 'stand out' to her, and then concludes that one of them is probably town. The other one is Golden, and when I pressed her on it using the exact same reasoning I just detailed to you, she backed down from that one too.
Also, look at how she has been dealing with Miltonkram. If she was scum, going after him would be extremely risky for her, as it was evident that a lot of us had a pretty good town read on him. She didn't suspect him until after sciberbia and me started entertaining the idea of his death, and then she is all about the idea.
So basically, the stuff that has happened after I posted my case on her does nothing to change my original opinion. Return to Occam's Razor: her being scum, all things considered, is the simplest explanation. I don't say this in lieu of any other reasoning, I say it as very powerful supplementary information.
Now in regards to sciberbia,
On June 18 2012 19:12 alan133 wrote:
I don't know why suddenly everyone is suspecting each other, but this is what the mafia wants exactly.
You are right. Suspecting sciberbia is exactly what the last scum wants you to do. I haven't read the case on him yet as I wanted to address you first, but all I'm going to say is that your primary source of information here is his filter, not Crossfire's case. I've been through the filter a couple of times, and because of this new case I will probably do so again. I'm guessing though that my opinion won't change, because sciberbia has been a scum hunting machine this game. His play has been extremely, extremely green.
One thing I'll point out right now is that his suspicions of suki did not come out of nowhere. He was very clear on his suspicions of her on day 1. Have a look:
On June 14 2012 13:02 sciberbia wrote:I've been studying the thread and I currently find these 3 most suspicious: suki, Crossfire99, and HeavOnEarthI've been staring at suki's filter for the last half hour, so I'll dedicate the rest of this post to my case on suki, and detail my thoughts on crossfire and heavonEarth in another post. Here are several reasons why I am suspicious of suki: Her original accusation of trackd00r + Show Spoiler +
suki's original accusation of trackd00r was quite strong. She says:
-- This post screams to me that he's trying to be super cautious...
-- BUT WAIT! Just ONE post previous to that he says...
-- try to take a firm stance, and then you do the most scummy wishy-washy-ness thing ever the very next post.
-- ##vote trackd00r
She clearly thinks trackd00r has a good chance of being scum, and is interested in making everyone suspicious of him. Keep this in mind for later.
Anyway, this original accusation drew my attention for a couple reasons.
-- First of all, she twists his words, so her case isn't good
-- As austinmcc said, even if trackd00r had contradicted himself, that's not a great scumtell. Mafia don't intentionally promote mafia policies. That's way too obvious. So I think suki is attacking him for a (percieved) confusing stance, not a scumtell.
-- We lynched suki last game for being wishy/washy. I could definitely see a mafia suki making a bit of a stretch just to make an early "bold" case, and try to look townie. trackd00r would make a good target of such a case since he is new and his first couple posts were a bit confusing (difficult to read).
The way that suki backs off trackd00r + Show Spoiler +I wasn't too suspicious based on suki's initial accusation. But I really didn't like the way in which she backed down from it. + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 00:06 suki wrote:
As has been pointed out, the contradiction isn't as severe as I initially thought it was.
##unvote trackd00r
I thought at the very least I could rouse a response from trackd00r, however my case was too weak and I feel that no useful information can be gleamed from people simply agreeing on its flimsiness.
Before, she thought there was a severe contradiction. Now, she says that there is still a contradiction, but it isn't that severe. What? I was expecting her to say that she had misread/misunderstood. I still don't see any contradiction at all. Her post suggests that she doesn't want to completely back down from her accusation, but I don't see why she is still suspicious of trackd00r at all. @suki please clarify this To me, the most scummy line in her whole filter is "I thought at the very least I could rouse a response from trackd00r". Reading her original response, she strongly accuses trackd00r and seems very interested in getting him lynched. This line about "at the very least" seems contradictory to that motivation. general attitude in her filter + Show Spoiler +
suki was super excited to play this game and was even more excited at the prospect of playing town. Look through her filter. Her posts so far aren't what I would expect from a town suki. After the initial accusation, everything she has said is bland and uninteresting. I don't think she has yet shared any real insight, or shown a lot of interest in helping town. It feels more like she is going through the motions.
how she opens the game + Show Spoiler +
This is pretty circumstancial, so I don't expect many of you to buy into it, but I find the timing of her first two posts odd. First of all, starting the game about 4 hours late is slightly indicative of mafia. Secondly, why does she post a policy response 6 minutes after her first accusation post? She had clearly read the whole thread before posting either. This is all a bit odd to me, and I think it lends credence to the idea that she just wanted to start off boldly to avoid suspicion.
The only thing in her filter that gives me a townie feel is her recent statement about finding golden's opening post suspicious, but waiting to comment on it. Overall, I would rate suki as definitely suspicious, based mostly on her accusation of trackd00r and the way she backed down from it.
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@s0Lstice
About Golden's case, if you read correctly, I actually have more point supporting him rather than against him. About the motivation behind a bus, please do remember that this is a newbie game. It is even harder to read
Sorry that I didn't mention my above post was regarding after Suki is lynched and flipped town, I know this is a bit far fetched, but I am just thinking scums might hit me.. or will they? I think the general consent is to lynch suki.
Your case against suki in night 1
She defended herself and I defended her, but no one even care to comment on them. When I asked for one, you simply said "that has not changed my mind, sorry". Even so, I am all for lynching suki if everyone thinks she is scum. No reason to be a straw man here and cause more chaos. Given at this point of time, we can safely do a mislynch, so do lynch her to either proof her innocent, or win the game and embarrass me for my silliness.
Seeing that you didn't read Cross's case against Sciberbia, I am not surprised you find my case weak. I did not include what Crossfire said because I don't want to repeat after him, but do read his case. I have an uneasy feeling when you came out with your plan. I was comfortable with my town reads: You, sciberbia, crossfire, MJ and suki. Except for the last one, I think everyone generally feels this way. However, when you mentioned about a fixed list, I keeps me thinking. What if my reads are wrong? What if the one that appeared most honest and pro-town to us turns out to be a scum? There is no 100% sure. I know, there is strong reasons for why sciberbia is not scum, but it is all based on words, and no guarantee. I do comment that if sciberbia is scum, he is seeing to win this game 15 days later.
What I want to say is, yes, everyone wants to lynch scum, and the best outcome is for her to spill red, even if it makes me hit my head thinking how stupid I was, I prefer that. However, what if she don't? I suggest you all re-evaluate everyone from that point onward. I don't like sciberbia's case on miltonkram. I read it beforecrossfire's case on him, but as soon as I read his case against milton, I kept thinking that he is actually scummier.
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EBWOP:
Basically, if suki flipped green, nullify all the reads you have and do a reevaluation.
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You are absolutely correct, reads will be re-evaluated if suki flips green.
The first thing I did after responding to you was get to work on the case that crossfire wrote. I'm about a quarter of the way through it, and I already see a lot of problems. If it helps, this is the mindset I am keeping while reading through it: read it once with the idea fixed in your head that sciberbia is town and look for town motivations for all actions that crossfire brought up, then do the exact same thing with the idea fixed in your head that sciberbia is scum and look for scum motivation for all the actions brought up. Perhaps you did this already when you read it, but if you didn't, give it a shot.
I'm gonna make a post on it before N2 is over.
No votes have been placed yet. We have many hours yet before day 3 lynch, and plenty of work to do.
Unforgiven_ve
You have been subbed in for awhile now and done almost nothing, and its hurting the town. I know you said you were busy, but if you are town and have any interest in us winning this game, you need to share what your current scumreads are.
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Hey guys - I just got up and got to work. I see there are some suspicions on me, but I'm at work until 6pm EST. So, I'll probably not be defending myself until early D3, assuming I'm still alive. Just wanted to let you know.
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@s0Lstice
You're right. I read through crossfire's case thinking "omg no wonder I feel sciberbia is acting weird so this is why". I will do as you suggested.
@sciberbia
I understand you have life responsibilities.. But it'd be a lie if I say I don't mind it.
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On June 18 2012 19:12 alan133 wrote:
Question:
Do people get a message when they are role blocked even they have no roles?
Yes.
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EDIT: My earlier post had a stupid comment about the ObsQT discussion, but if someone saw it, disregard it completely. It was only relevant considering the ObsQT discussion, not considering the actual in-thread discussion...
Hopefully no stupidity this time around:
@s0Lstice: I'm just observing this game, but unfortunately I might not see the conclusion, since I'm going on a vacation starting on Wednesday. Good luck to both town and Mafia!
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I'm gonna talk about crossfire's case on sciberbia. I'll address the points in order.
-Sciberbia posts a list of suspicious people, but only talks about one of them, in order to gauge reactions on the rest.
+ Show Spoiler +How's this for motivation? It takes time to write shit. He felt the strongest about suki (this is clear in his post) and wanted to get his thoughts out there as fast as possible to be digested. He even states a reason, the case on suki was the freshest in his mind.
-Soft defense of HeavOnEarth at the end of his accusation.
+ Show Spoiler +HeavOnEarth was the third most suspicious suspect on his list. Why is it strange that he provides reasons that counter some of the scummy things he saw? If he is concluding a person is 'somewhat suspicious,' there are naturally things he is going to see as possibly town, but sees them as overridden by the scummy points. Also, just because I used certain posts to paint HeavOnEarth as scummy doesn't mean that someone else can interpret them in a different way. My words are not law.
-Posting a list of people's convictions leading up to the lynch.
+ Show Spoiler +Have a look: On May 21 2012 16:45 sciberbia wrote:
all times EST
indifferent - sciberbia, golden, solstice
not heard from - mufaa, shiaopi
hegeo - can stay on until 6pm
Milton - starts work at 7pm
mordan - starts work at 8pm
release - can't get on until 7pm
Looks to me like 7:30pm EST makes the most sense. Any earlier is nice for hegeo, milton, and mordan, but it would really screw over release. Any later is slightly beneficial to release, but detrimental to hegeo, milton, and mordan.
If the deadline is indeed 7:30, we should just be aware that a couple people might be gone for the last hour or so, and not to wait until the last minute for a roleclaim or anything.
Thoughts on 7:30pm EST? Especially mufaa and shiaopi?
On May 24 2012 07:09 sciberbia wrote:
Hour and a half to the deadline. We really need to decide on a target. I've been accumulating a list of everyone's opinion on whether to lynch shiaopi, milton, or hegeo, and it looks something like this:
sciberbia: milton, hegeo, then shiaopi
golden: milton, hegeo, then shiaopi
shiaopi: milton, then hegeo, not shiaopi
mordanis: hegeo, then milton/shiaopi
release: hegeo, then milton, then shiaopi
solstice: shioapi, hegeo, then milton
milton: shioapi
hegeo: shioapi, then milton
mufaa: ............
Feel free to correct me if I've misrepresented your views.
I propose that shioapi is out of the running. He is primarily accused by the two other lynch candidates, as well as solstice. He is viewed as least scummy of the three by me, golden, mordanis, and release
On the other hand, milton has 3 votes, and release said he would also be quite interested in voting for him. He is about the same as shiaopi in mordanis's eyes.
Hegeo is the primary target of release and mordanis, and is also considered moderately suspicious by all the people we aren't considering lynching.
Can we agree to focus on milton vs hegeo? He makes a very similar list in the pre-game, trying to get everyone on board with a deadline time. Then, in-game, he makes exactly the same type of list you are calling scummy. Guess what color sciberbia was in this game? It rhymes with spleen. It doesn't matter if you think it's helpful or not, it's clear that he thinks it's helpful.
-Sciberbia is active in the night, and posts his case on roflewaffles after Crossfire and Alan post that they think he is suspicious.
+ Show Spoiler +It's true being active at night is something scum do, because they have no fear of being killed. Sciberbia has been playing this game to win, he will be active when he has time because he wants to win. There is definite town motivation for this. I've been posting a lot on N2, am I scummy?
For the second part of that, last I checked, town wants to kill scum. Very easy town motivation here. The bussing scenario here is far less likely.
-Sciberbia goes from being ambivalent about a second vigi claim to adamant about a second vigi claim.
+ Show Spoiler +Lots of bad logic here. Crossfire seems to have overall a high opinion of sciberbia as a player. Now, what kind of idiot scum would flat out say, with blue color, hey you blues out there claim! It doesn't fit with the rest of your case, because it's heavy handed. Your other points suggest he is being careful, calculating.
You say he is against vigilante claiming. This is false, plain and simple. He did care, the discussion was about when. Put another way, he wanted the vigi to claim, but he thought it would be better if the claim came later. He had to think about the ramifications of there being two vigilantes, but he flat out says that is is unlikely. Why is it strange then that he calls for a counter claim if one exists? He wants to win, and a counter claim would have basically wrapped the game up. There is one point here that I agree with, and that is it was pretty weird for him, having realized that there may be a second vigilante, asks for that second guy to claim. Everyone can make of this what they will, but I think this was just a townie slip of logic. He kind of mind-fucked himself with the idea that there were two vigi's, and goofed.
-Sciberbia asks me what I think of Miltonkram on N2.
+ Show Spoiler +There is possible scum motivation here, I grant that. I see town motivation too. Look at the situation at that time. We were struggling with a situation, forcing ourselves to consider that the impossible was possible. A thought struck him that we have been auto-clearing Miltonkram because his filter looks pretty green. But, if we are forcing ourselves to consider the impossible, Milton is fair game. He had this passing thought and posted it. Is this really that unlikely for a town-person to do? I say no.
-Sciberbia, seeing my opinion, posts a case on Miltonkram.
+ Show Spoiler +Same explanation. We, at that time, were imagining what was going to happen in the game provided suki flipped town, which, at the time, seemed pretty impossible. Why is it weird that he is making a full effort at considering all possibilities? Same town motivation.
-Sciberbia tries to dissect night actions.
+ Show Spoiler +Obvious town motivation. Go look at the post game analysis of NMM XVII. Many of the experienced players posting there say it is a mistake to not devote some time to analyzing night actions. It can devolve into WIFOM if you aren't careful, but that doesn't mean the analysis isn't useful. Suki also makes an excellent point about NMM XVI. If the remaining players had analyzed night actions more, they would have seen a big red arrow pointing at Xatalos, who was the last scum. Analyzing night actions is another tool in the townie tool box. Easy town motivation here.
So to sum up, I see a single point that could look scummy, and that request for the second vigi to claim if there is one. One, single, point. Do not make the mistake of falling prey to confirmation bias. If you look at sciberbia's filter like I have, first with the idea that he is town, and next with the idea that he is scum, I guarantee you will think the first way is more logical.
Ok, done with that. Now, I had a HUGE epiphany while writing that, and I'm certain it will lead us to a D3 win. Here's a preview: it doesn't involve lynching Suki D3, it involves killing Unforgiven_ve
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Xatalos, seriously stop. How do you think people are going to react to what you said about Zelblade?
Zelblade, can you tell Xatalos to edit that last post out?
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Hi guys.
@ s0Lstice
Yes, I am a bit surprised.
@ sciberbia
I'm pretty exhausted. Had to work an extremely long shift. If I feel like I'm about to get mislynched or people have questions about what motivated any of my posts I'll defend myself/answer questions. I will answer your question about my breadcrumbing comment. Please pardon me if my posting is a little incoherent. I'm really tired.
You had been commenting quite a bit on blue role play and I thought I needed to add my two cents. I was trying to figure out ways for us to get enough confirmed town players to make it impossible for scum to win. At first I was thinking about the possibility of confirming two townies if we had a jailkeeper. One would claim they were RB'd and the jailer would show us his/her breadcrumb. I thought of what could go wrong after I posted my advice. What if we had a scum RBer and they breadcrumbed their action and used this to become confirmed town? My mind kind of exploded then.
I was also thinking of confirming town players through a cop, but that would require this game not to be a setup with double godfathers. I find that a distinct possibility (if we have a cop) because I could see prplhz making a setup that is basically a "fuck you" to town players who rely too much on blue roles. Does this make sense? Basically my thoughts were chasing themselves around in circles and I didn't think all the possibilities through when I posted my breadcrumbing comment. I'm hoping everyone ignored it.
Edit: I wrote this last night but my internet went out. Posting it now. Just so you know, I'm not going to waste a ton of time defending myself. I'd much prefer to scumhunt. Suki seems like the most logical lynch candidate for this upcoming day cycle. I'd prefer not to spend an entire day with the focus on her. I'll be rereading the thread to see if there is anything people missed. Analysis will be on it's way in a little while.
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Anyway, yea. Last scum is Unforgiven_ve
I'll start with the point that Xatalos gave away Look at how reluctant the mods are to kill this player. No vote on D1 from Mouldy Jeb, he gets replaced. No vote on D2 from Unforgiven, he gets a warning. Is the last scum going to get mod-killed, resulting in a town win? Doubtful.
Now let's look at Mouldy Jeb
I'll start with another game he was in, where he was town. Here are some select posts.
On May 21 2012 18:37 Mouldy Jeb wrote:
hi- now my presence is known. saying "get rid of a veteran" indicates that you are worried that an experienced Mafia player will either weasel you out~ if your mafia or kill you if you are not so due to this rash decision to get rid of competition so on that note #vote:Nova_Terra
On May 22 2012 22:22 Mouldy Jeb wrote:
early game i suspected nova because of rash decision making from his part and myself assuming the worst, matchew voting for me which wasn't given a viable explanation so i would be inclined to vote for matchew due to his random train of thought against others ## vote:mattchew
He explains his reads here, then takes a firm stance with a vote. Look at this game:
On June 13 2012 22:47 Mouldy Jeb wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 16:25 Miltonkram wrote:
@alan
Just making a bit of a joke. I was referencing our last game together, NMM XV, when I voted for sciberbia in one of my very first posts on D1. You're right though, spending too much time joking around does not promote a pro-town environment. From here on out I'm 100% serious and in scumhunting mode.
##unVote: sciberbia you are suppose to be playing seriously if not then that would create the cloud of assumption that you are indeed scum random votes are related to scummy tactics so I already have my suspicions of you. also my suspicions of roflewaffles are slight but i have no further evidence that is incriminating him
On June 14 2012 00:20 Mouldy Jeb wrote:
nope roffle that was a gut feeling about you that why I stated I have no evidence
On June 14 2012 00:29 Mouldy Jeb wrote:
my personal opinion so far, would be to keep tabs on miltontkram this is due to the fact that he randomly voted ( yes yes, its all fun and games until a misslynch)
I also do agree with suki on the "sketchy" behaviour of rofl but contradicting myself I feel you have raised some good points of scummy behaviour in your long post
and crossfire seems to be lurking.
His reasoning is pretty weak in both games, but it's far weaker in this game. The baseless suspicion of roflewaffles is very, very telling. Looks like newb scum trying to appear like he is pressuring his teammate. The most important thing, however, is no votes. It doesn't match, and it's scummy.
Now, move to Unforgiven. He has been useless this game, except for a weak bus on roflwaffles, which gives him just a smidge of town credit. Maybe enough to keep him off the radar while he lurks with purpose.
On June 16 2012 03:09 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
In case i die, my 2 "best" reads (so far) are austincc and roflwaffles55.
They were trying to push a lynch on Crossfire, seeing as this wasnt working they decided a Bus from roflwaffles55 and austin will kept his target "just in case".
We still have 6 more hours till night ends right?
Look at how he dances around austin:
On June 16 2012 06:04 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
ebwop: i want to point out im not making a conclusive acussation on austin, i just want you guys to analize a little how he is playing.
This is just after he said his two main suspects were roflewaffles and austin.
Now let's look at other games. NMM XV comes to mind. His filter is big, so I'll just highlight a few points.
On June 02 2012 05:27 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
im not a fan of this, but im gonna do it...
TOWN please, VOTE FOR SUKI, im pretty sure he is mafia!! I bet he is confortably sitting waiting for Ange777 to get lynched or a No Lynch at best.
Xatalos, if you arent mafia, please do this, a vigi can check me at night (if mafia dont kill me before)
On June 05 2012 06:45 Unforgiven_ve wrote:It's too late for me to try and convince you guys to change your votes, i think vivax will flip town, his last post voting for himself doesnt help tho. Guys, because i think im right about heist, maybe i will die this night, the only thing in my favor is being a terrible poster (they killed s0Lstice for being good=, maybe they want me to be alive to get more people confused. You are understimating the proof against heist, i still think there's a ver high change that heist and xatalos are mafia, i see they are playing a pretty standard "active" mafia, dodging attacks and siding whit the mayority (not before making his "preference" obvious to the town) triying to gaing some town credit. Right now i would kill heist, the way he started to play the game and how he acted around the suki lynch are my main motivation. This posts Show nested quote +If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing. and Show nested quote +I changed bacause I was not very condifent in either a Suki or Ange77 lynch and my Superouman lynch was useless. You agree that Unforgiven seems more scummy. I don't like how you are giving up to commit to a worse read. screams mafia for me.
On June 06 2012 07:51 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
##Vote heist, im not gonna spend more time explaining something so obvious
Again, just like MJ, the tone does not match. He is sure-footed and comes down hard on his reads. Here, not so much.
I feel like this post is getting pretty big, so I won't pull quotes from NMM XIII, but go have a look. He was scum in that game, and he lurked with purpose. He bussed teammates as well. It looks A LOT like what's happening in this game.
That leads me to my next point. This game, right now, feels a lot like XIII. The scum lurked, and town tore itself to pieces, destroying the people with content (who were all town) one by one. It's been a seemingly insurmountable task to find the last scum in this game, and we've already started the process of slowly cannibalizing ourselves. It seems insurmountable because we (I) cleared the last scum based on bussing arguments.
A wise man (thanks Marv!) told me in coaching PM's that bussing is only illogical for scum if it causes a scumbuddy to be lynched. When HeavOnEarth and roflewaffles bussed MJ, was there seriously any chance that he was getting lynched that day? No. Emphatically no. Them bussing him was not illogical, it was smart. Look at the confusion it caused. I bet Greymist has been in that scum QT insisting that they not be afraid to call each other out, and he was right of course.
I'll even add NK analysis for the cherry on top. Why are our strong town reads still alive? Because we have been completely, utterly, wrong since Day 2 began. Unforgiven was free to blue snipe as he pleased (austin could look blue, no? he is cautious like a blue), because the big talkers were all wrong. Also, remember how the night action was so late? It's because Unforgiven has been busy, like he said.
It all makes sense! FINALLY!!!!! Please let's kill Unforgiven_ve on day 3 and be done with this game. I want to feel the sweet taste of victory.
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One more thing.
[QUOTE]On June 14 2012 09:32 HeavOnEarth wrote:
was sort of waiting for MJ to post something after he was like hurr durr ima post soon. i took a look at his previous game though and his posts seem consistent from when he was townie. hes really not helping at all, and definitely still looks scum, but it feels like poor town play rather than mafia.
Tell me this doesn't sound like newb scum talking about a teammate.
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I'm glad that someone found my case to not be convincing (I was hoping it was someone I had a less solid read on than you solstice ). I only decided to look into sciberbia once i saw in his filter him trying to get a second vigi to claim and his question early this night. As I wrote the whole thing up, I realized that he is playing very townie and there is no way he is scum, but I decided to post my case anyway to get some reactions. Since I'm not not going to be around close to the deadline, I have to post this now which is unfortunate because I was hoping more people would have to respond to it, but oh well.
I also agree with you solstice about unforgiven. I specifically called him out earlier because MJ/he hadn't really contributed and I figured I could get a pretty good read on him, since I was his scum buddy in NMM XIII. So I'm all on board an unforgiven lynch tomorrow unless he pulls some crazy good analysis showing why someone is the last scum (I doubt it though, I'm almost 100% positive everyone else is town lol).
We'll see if I live through the night...
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@crossfire, alan
I think s0Lstice already covered most of the relevant points and it seems like you (crossfire) didn't think I was mafia anyway. Do you still want to hear me explain my actions or would I just be wasting time? I'll at the very least explain my comments on vigilantes when I get home.
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Just wrote up explanations of some of my actions that you guys pointed out. Here you go:
Crossfire's post analyzing the lynch of HeavOnEarth+ Show Spoiler +During N1, Crossfire made a post analyzing the who/how/when of the HeavOnEarth wagon: + Show Spoiler +On June 15 2012 14:24 Crossfire99 wrote:Ok now let's analyze this lynch. Solstice drew the first blood with these + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 10:07 s0Lstice wrote:Alright, so I went filter spelunking and explored every nook and cranny. My general impression at this moment is one of disappointment. I know it's rare to get good reads on day 1, but some people's filters are incredibly barren. If I had to lynch right now, here would be my suspects. HeavOnEarthHe's pretty lurky. His hard stance is on Golden, where he builds a case on the poor guy's intro post. Look at the case: Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 23:52 HeavOnEarth wrote:morning everyone First off, id like to say im suspicious of everyone who tries to stay under the radar. I feel newer mafia players have a tendency to try and stay quiet. That said O.Golden_ne looks the most suspicious to me- On June 13 2012 09:43 O.Golden_ne wrote:On June 13 2012 09:25 austinmcc wrote:
-snip
I'm not looking to push lurkers early and stay on them for an entire day cycle, killing discussion, but they need to be considered and I'd rather be looking at them on earlier days than when we're close to/at LYLO/MYLO. agreed. NL is bad. Killing lurking is necessary. Lynching scum is great. Lets get the ball rolling and squeeze out the lurkers early so we can narrow things down later on. Looking forward to scumhunting, i'm happy with the deadline on this as its 10am for me in Aust, which means i'll be able to meet the deadlines for lynching in the mornings a little easier. I'll try my hardest this game to meet these deadlines and to contribute useful information rather than filler. Essentially i'm all for an agressive early game. I want to be able to establish some basic reads by the end of Day one, and if theres no-one who's appropriately scummy then we lynch a lurker. Golden Is there anything even remotely helpful in this post? Everyone knows NL is bad. he seems to be posting for the sake of it also, i checked his last game, (he was townie) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=337671&user=92568 u can tell his tone is completely different, and he is generally more helpful. Think of it like this. Scum will be making cases against people on day 1...they have to. I looked at all the cases people have made, and this one stank especially bad. It's built entirely around a hello post. It has a very artificial feel to it. Also, he just posted this: Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 08:47 HeavOnEarth wrote:On June 14 2012 08:38 s0Lstice wrote:
Just checking in guys. I'm going to make a post on my top scumreads in a few hours, as well as some errata. Lynch time is fast approaching and we really need to buckle down. ? lynch isn't for another 24 hours? Townies always feel the pressure of the ticking clock. Half of our time being gone doesn't seem to trouble him. He hasn't really bothered to comment on what's been going on in the thread outside of his own reads. He's been on Mouldy Jeb's case as well. Here's some more recent(!) material: Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 09:32 HeavOnEarth wrote:
was sort of waiting for MJ to post something after he was like hurr durr ima post soon. i took a look at his previous game though and his posts seem consistent from when he was townie. hes really not helping at all, and definitely still looks scum, but it feels like poor town play rather than mafia. Confused? Me too. I think this dude has a chance at flipping scum. and this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 00:50 s0Lstice wrote:
Some housekeeping stuff first..
I am removing alan133 from my scum list. The main thing that had me suspicious was his strong-arm defense, but everything following that has been fine. I like that he is holding himself accountable for his style, and I want to see what he can do when not under pressure.
austin and suki have commented on crossfire99, and I have to say I agree. I was planning on wrighting a post similar to what suki has done. The cogent point is that he has long bouts of inactivity when he is both scum and town. He should get the same level of suspicion that every lurker gets, but nothing special beyond that I feel. His filter right now is pretty garbagey, and hard to get a read on. I wouldn't be upset if we lynched him, but I think we can do better.
Here is better: HeavOnEarth. Nothing has happened to change my initial opinion on him for the better. In fact, him buddying up to sciberbia in his latest post makes him look worse. Go read my case if you missed it. I'm not the only one to see him as suspicious, so I think there is plenty of traction here.
##vote HeavOnEarth . His case on Heavon was solid and good. It doesn't seem like a mafia bus attempt to me (it's too well thought out and puts legit pressure on Heavon), so I see him as a townie. Then alan joins the fun with this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 04:00 alan133 wrote:I see the current pressure are easing off from me. I also realize I has pretty much ignored everyone else except for rolf and suki. @HeavOnEarth His first few points seem disconnected. None of them relates to each other: From FoSing Golden for his opening post, + Show Spoiler +And I thought rofl@me and suki@trap was bad later jumping to accusing Mouldy Jeb (he was an easy target), and then commenting on s0ltice's preception on lynch time + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 08:47 HeavOnEarth wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 08:38 s0Lstice wrote:
Just checking in guys. I'm going to make a post on my top scumreads in a few hours, as well as some errata. Lynch time is fast approaching and we really need to buckle down. ? lynch isn't for another 24 hours? . He also state that he is waiting for responses. Upon being debunked on Gold's read, he basically dismiss it similar the way suki has dismissed her case on trap, claiming they are trying to start conversation. In suki's case, this is still believable. Before her case there was no controversy, and very little to talk about. However, when Heave posted on Gold, there were already controversies + Show Spoiler + and he ignore them altogether. I interpret his motive is to lynch a lurker over an already presented scummy player, and this can hardly be town. Very Suspicious Right now, I find Heav and MJ were the best lynch candidates, and HeavOnEarth appears to be more scummy##unvote: Suki##vote: HeavOnEarthI am off to bed, it is 3 am right here. I will get up in 4 hours so we can get a successful lynch. Another refresh reveals more post from crossfire. My opinion on him has not swayed. . He did some good analysis on Heavon and defend himself against suki well, so I feel he is townie right now. Next suki comes to the party + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 04:58 suki wrote:HeavOnEarth: Okay, something really really sticks out to me in Heavon's first post, and it's not about golden. It's this particular line: Show nested quote +also id like to point out crossfire is completely inactive, whereas in past games he was a pretty talkative little townie.
thoughts? Above, I posted my opinions on Crossfire, where I had gone through pretty much his entire filter in his two previous games, and the big thing I noted was that Crossfire LURKED very hard in his first game as blue, and somewhat lurked in the second game as red. HeavOn clearly is talking about Crossfire's game as blue, 'He was a pretty talkative little townie'. This is clearly wrong. He continues his case against Crossfire later after sciberbia brings it up. This has already been labelled as suspicious. It's a big point against him that he waited until someone else pointed fingers at Crossfire, when he had so early established a read on Crossfire - a fairly in depth read as he had even looked at Crossfire's filters from previous games. The thing is, the case HeavOn makes against crossfire disregards the previous game filters. Crossfire, as mafia, was assertive actively pushed cases against other players. He also lurked quite a bit. Show nested quote +
As for golden i admit my analysis was pretty damn bad LOL , but he didn't really have any other posts for me to provoke him with, and i still feel its a strong play to accuse lurkers of being scummy, just to get them to talk. The way he went about replying though felt really odd to me. For example, i don't really care if you're taking a few mins to write up a post. Why tell me about it(unless you're about to be majority lynched or something). Just feels off.
HeavOn votes for Golden despite saying that his case against Golden is weak. He doesn't back off however, stating that the response was scummy and that the scummy thing about it was how golden was commenting on the time it would take to make his posts? Seems like a very strained argument to make. I see clear scum motivation in voting for golden. In my previous game as mafia, I harped on Miltonkram for his early vote against sciberbia. Even when my argument was convincingly rebutted, I continued to press my case against him finding any sort of scummy intent I could make up. Why? Because I didn't want to be wishy-washy. HeavOn's case against golden is that golden 'just feels off'. This makes Golden a 'solid lynch' to him. I'm out of time, but that's my insight into HeavOn. I feel that there can definitely be scum motivation behind his posts. I haven't had time to closely look at other people but for now HeavOn is clearly a scummier target than alan. ##unvote alan113##vote HeavOnEarth . Suki follows up with some more good analysis on Heavon and I see her also as town. Those three I mentioned above all brought solid analysis and new thoughts on Heavon, so I feel confident in seeing them as town for right now. Then Milton ( + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 04:59 Miltonkram wrote:
Oops, slept in a bit later than I'd planned. s0Lstice, I'm inclined to agree with you. HeavOnEarth looks like the best lynch candidate.
Everybody, I'd suggest you take a look at him. His filter is not particularly long, but I think there is enough scummy behavior there to warrant a vote.
##Vote: HeavOnEarth ), roflwaffle ( + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 05:09 roflwaffles55 wrote:
I noticed already that his play was scummy, however I felt like it was the easy way out, I was hoping to nail a more influential scum D1, but I guess that's just new player optimism... If he flips scum, I'm not sure what kind of information we're going to gain from it as his posts don't seem to link him to anyone.. and if he flips town then all we really know is that he was a poor townie.
I'll go with the flow because he's fairly blatant with his scumminess (real word?) but I'd like to keep an eye on Crossfire, as well as keeping Mouldy Jeb in mind for a D2 lynch.
##unvote Crossfire99
##vote HeavOnEarth
I'm not sure if I'll be on tonight, I'll do my absolute best to be on in case there's a swing of opinion. ), and Golden ( + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 06:27 O.Golden_ne wrote:
in regards to HeavonEarth.
In relation to my:
a) knowing i'm town.
b) Him trying to bus me one the grounds of "seems like a solid case".
c) lacklustre contribution and no rebuttle to any arguments.
i feel like he see's a bandwagon forming and jumps on straight away.
#VOTE: HeavonEarth
i still maintain a #FOS on MouldyJeb
i still owe the group a comment on Crossfire99 but i honestly dont have time for it before work. ) all jump on the bandwagon without much new to add (not necessarily scummy in and of itself, there is only so much one can add based on one day's filter). I did notice a really weird thing about roflwaffle's post, though. He's upset that we are going to get too easy of a lynch and said that he knows Heavon is suspicious but thinks it's more worthwhile to attack someone with more influence like me (huh?, I've been under suspicion all day, if anything that makes people look at me more closely, there's no way I'm going to be influential). Also, his suspicion of Heavon up to that point consists of this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 02:44 roflwaffles55 wrote:
I'm going to post as though all of these people are scum, and the impact they have a chance to make if they are left alive. I think it will give a different way of thinking about it.
HeavOnEarth
His play is quite suspicious and his accusations and suspicions lackluster at best. He could just as easily be an awful townie as scum.
Overall he's been fairly ineffectual, but if he's hiding behind a mask of confusion and bad reads, he could be an annoyance as scum later on.
I believe that the most lynchable potential scum right now would be Crossfire99. I understand that there are already votes on HeavOnEarth, but if he really is that incompetent at bringing cases to the table, as a scum, why would he try to post them? He is suspicious to me, but not as suspicious as Crossfire. Unless he responds to the accusations in a convincing and collected manner soon, I strongly believe that he should be lynched.
##vote Crossfire99 . All of this suspicion came after solstice's case against Heavon and he adds nothing new to it except postulating that he could be an awful townie (we now know that's not true). This makes me suspicious of roflwaffle. This is followed by sciberbia's vote + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 07:56 sciberbia wrote:My thoughts on HeavOnEarth: I was originally somewhat suspicious of him for throwing suspicion onto a handful of easy targets, and then becoming wishy/washy about it. He has since made me more suspicious with his response and attitude towards golden. Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 20:15 HeavOnEarth wrote:
As for golden i admit my analysis was pretty damn bad LOL , but he didn't really have any other posts for me to provoke him with, and i still feel its a strong play to accuse lurkers of being scummy, just to get them to talk. The way he went about replying though felt really odd to me. For example, i don't really care if you're taking a few mins to write up a post. Why tell me about it(unless you're about to be majority lynched or something). Just feels off. First of all, he admits that his case was "pretty damn bad" and LOL's about it. I see this as slightly scummy. He is being ingratiating and agreeable, rather than firm, objective, and analytic. This is more typical of mafia than of townies. Next HeavOnEarth says that there were no other posts to provoke Golden with. The question I'm left asking myself is: why did HeavOnEarth feel that he had to attack Golden at all? He says it was strong play of him to "accuse lurkers of being scummy", but at the time of HeavOnEarth's accusation, golden didn't look lurky. Golden made 1 post in the first 4 hours of the game, and then HeavOnEarth accused him. 1 decent-sized post in the first 4 hours isn't lurky. Why was HeavOnEarth looking for a reason to "provoke him"? Finally, heavOnEarth refuses to back down from his suspicions of golden, and even ends up voting golden, but doesn't give any good reasons. He just says that golden's posting seems odd. Odd =/= scummy. It looks like he just arbitrarily picked a target to attack at the beginning and now won't back down. Overall, I think he has a good chance of being mafia and I'm happy with lynching him. ##Vote HeavOnEarth . He gives some good reasoning for his vote, but I feel it is too late in the bandwagon to say this makes him townie. It could be a mafia finally realizing that his partner is done for and needs to jump on to be less suspicious. I'll leave this as a null read for now. Then austin comes in and votes for me with this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 08:28 austinmcc wrote:I think Heavon looks scummy. But his voting took off after he posted that he was going to be gone for auto repairs. And there's been very little pushback. I'm particularly worried by: (1) us going for the guy who basically said "Won't be around to defend myself," and (2) the lack of any pushback against him, when we had multiple targets recently. There could be some bussing going on, but we had a couple other juicy targets, and I wouldn't expect a bus in that situation. At the very least, my stance right now is that he doesn't look good, but the vast majority of the votes and comments on him seem to have occurred after he said he was leaving. I don't want to lynch him today based on that alone. See your comment towards him. Yes, his reads would help town. Yes, he ought to defend himself. But he may actually have been gone these last few hours, and I want to see his response before I lynch him. If it looks bad, there's D2. I think I'm saying the same thing over and over, so I'll knock it off. Apart from those basic statements, I'll note this. He DOES fit into a category of people trying to look like they're scumhunting but not. The 1 post suspicion of Golden, his comment on MJ - Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 02:39 HeavOnEarth wrote:check out Mouldy Jeb's posts, and accusations On June 14 2012 00:20 Mouldy Jeb wrote:
nope roffle that was a gut feeling about you that why I stated I have no evidence Why would someone try to direct suspicions with NO reasoning? his chiming in on crossfire - + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 20:15 HeavOnEarth wrote:@Sciberbia in addition to what u said on crossfire, notice that he 1) only replies when called out. Every message he is replying to someone, not making his own points aside from his opening. 2) Every one of his posts feels like complete filler to me. he is trying to LOOK helpful, without actively contributing anything + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 02:06 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 02:00 roflwaffles55 wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 01:56 Crossfire99 wrote:Just woke up. I'll start with that only as a last resort will I be for lynching a lurker Day 1. If we can get some good scum hunting done Day 1 we will have a more productive lynch than just a random lurker. Now onto what has been happening. On the whole suki and trapdoor issue: + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 12:44 suki wrote:Is it just me or is trackd00r coming off as scummy already? Show nested quote +
If I understood correctly, it doesn't mean that I would stop any lynch that I didn't mention on my analysis. Just because I have a candidate for lynch, it doesn't imply that I discard any other possibility.
It's something related to common sense. If any other cases are convincing enough, I'll throw my vote there in the case I can't get a majority. In the other hand, if we end up like RNG lynching (which is a bad idea), any other poster that could be doing silly mistakes, or even a player practically saying ''hey guys, I'm mafia, lynch me'' that's when it goes against my mindset. Any possibility is valuable, but if there is something absurdly wrong, I'll call it, even if that means a no lynch.
This post screams to me that he's trying to be super cautious with his words, so that he'll have a safety net if/when he ever changes a vote or bandwagons on someone else. He throws out some 'obvious' examples of reasons of what wouldn't agree with him, and even mentions that he would follow through on a read, even if it that means a no lynch.BUT WAIT! Just ONE post previous to that he says this: Show nested quote +I won't accept a NO LYNCH unless I believe we may have a serious mislynch coming. ... Dude. You try to take a firm stance against something, and then you do the most scummy wishy-washy-ness thing ever the very next post. You're clearly informed about mafia as you brought up the idea of a day 1 RNG lynch, and being against a no lynch is not a difficult or complicated policy to hold. I feel that such a simple logical slip only happens if you're trying to play it safe and keep your options open. ##vote trackd00r I think suki was just being aggressive. I admit that I found trapdoor's response post to be weird, but then I realized that English is probably not his native language, so I reread it a few times. I don't see a contradiction in there, he is just explaining that he would try to stop a lynch that he really believed was on a townie. I'll give suki the benefit of the doubt on this case and say she is an over eager townie for now. On roflwaffle and alan: + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 22:28 roflwaffles55 wrote:I woke up this morning to the arguments made towards trackd00r, and while the arguments made against him weren't particularly convincing, his defense was a little bit lackluster as well. However, I would like to bring your attention to someone else that is acting quite scummy as it stands. Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 13:05 alan133 wrote:On June 13 2012 11:12 roflwaffles55 wrote:On June 13 2012 11:03 alan133 wrote:
Good morning everyone. Looks like the first thing I am going to do in the office is to play mafia on TL. I don't recognize anyone here since this is my first game, well except for s0Lsitce since he is in the game I read. That's my brief introduction, and habitually in the beginning of any game, GLHF.
I am new and am unsure how to proceed with the game, but my current strategy is to wait for more post to come. Currently I have no FoS. That also mean I do not trust anyone yet. What are your thoughts on what's been posted as of yet? On the inactive/lurkers lynch + Show Spoiler +
I believe inactive players/lurkers are generally anti-town/bad town play in any mafia game, so lynching them isn't a bad idea (Since I believe d1 lynch is good, refer below), if there aren't better candidates of course.
On the day 1 lynch/no lynch + Show Spoiler +
I agree on lynching day 1 based on my experience with other mafia games (outside TL) with similar setup. By reading other games on TL I also notice the current meta game is to lynch when there are more players, as it gives townies clues.
I am off to lunch, will be commenting on my thoughts later as I see some interesting posts/votes already. His first post puts him on the bandwagon with his opinion on the inactives and lurkers, and is generally a contentless post with little to no controversy. Otherwise, nothing to bring the spotlight to him at all. While this is not by any means evidence of scummy play, there comes to attention the next post he makes. Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 15:40 alan133 wrote:My thoughts on suki's case: + Show Spoiler +Any possibility is valuable, but if there is something absurdly wrong, I'll call it, even if that means a no lynch. I won't accept a NO LYNCH unless I believe we may have a serious mislynch coming. I started writing before I refresh and saw s0lstice's post. As he already pointed it out, there are no contradictions between the two statements. trackd00r merely states that NL is bad unless it is a "serious" mislynch in both highlighted sentence. If I am missing something, please correct me. Also, Miltonkram: + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 10:35 Miltonkram wrote:
Hey all, glad to see we've got a bit of activity already.
In NMM XV we actually had a decent discussion about no-lynches (involving me making a fool of myself) and how they can actually be beneficial in certain setups. That being said, we don't know for certain if we'll have any modkills so we should leave no-lynches off the table until we hit the unlikely scenario that a no-lynch is beneficial for the town.
Town, the best way to contribute is just to get posting. Let everyone know what your thoughts are. Did someone post something suspicious? Let us know about it. Do you think the town is making a bad move? Let us know about it. If a townie lurks he/she is letting down his/her entire team. So don't do it, K? I'm sooooooooper serious. Like sooooper, soooooooooooper serious.
Hey sciberbia, remember this
##Vote: sciberbia
...heh heh heh
Is it me or you are not actually + Show Spoiler +soooooooooooooooooper serious ? I personally think (well played) townies are not the ones that bluffs around, let alone voting someone without any reason at all? Generally, fooling around, to me, is anti-town/ bad town play. My current opinion + Show Spoiler +FMPOV, suki's case was most probably based on a misunderstanding, but (s)he could very well did it intentionally hoping for a bandwagon leading to a mislynch. Note that I am merely listing the possibilities, I do not FoS anyone yet, which can also mean that I do not trust anyone yet. This is the post that really got me wondering. How by now can you have no suspicions? There has been quite a few suspicious decisions by several people, giving you more then enough time to form a case against someone, or at least apply some pressure. His statement about trackd00r comes after s0lstice, leaving his opinion tied to a fairly influential player and just reiterating what s0lstice said with no additional evidence or opinionated comments. Again, seeming like he's contributing without actually bringing anything to the table. He throws around some suspicion towards Miltonkram, however not enough to constitute a case or apply any pressure, just enough to make people go filter milton and consider what he might have done, which yet again, leaves him out of the spotlight. The last statement he makes in this post is the most suspicious and the largest tell of his indecision and lack of real input. He restates his opinion that suki's case is a misunderstanding, again, nothing of value. He then continues to explain that he has no FoS and that he doesn't trust anyone, leaving his options open, and having no real contrary opinions. His current play is anti-town at best, as he hasn't brought any of his thoughts to the table, and has only left ambiguous and bandwagoning answers to keep attention on those with controversial opinions. I think roflwaffle is jumping a little too hard on alan here. It is like 1/3 of the way through Day 1. We are not going to have a lot to work with and consequently we aren't going to really know what to think of people until we get more information. Therefore, I feel alan is playing smartly by not rushing to find every little thing that might possibly be suspicious and throw a vote on someone because of it. On Milton: He was just joking around. If he doesn't stop then I'll start getting suspicious of him. As for my current thoughts: The bolded part of this post by austin makes me suspicious of him. + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 22:23 austinmcc wrote:
I don't read those posts as contradictory, believe the second one clarifies the first and explains that, while he'd consider a NL, the standard is higher than "Town is lynching someone that isn't one of my top couple reads."
That said, even if the two statements are entirely contradictory, I don't really see anything scummy in that. More inclined to see contradictions concerning votes and reads as scummy, where someone has stated one thing but then has to take a party line, rather than super early statements concerning a no lynch. There's no agenda to push on that issue. Two completely contradictory statements without reasoning for the change is very suspicious. This is a good way to catch scum. They know the alignment of every person, so they have to make cases that they know are wrong (excluding bussing). This can lead to contradictory posts to make them better fit in with the current town mindset. Austin, why don't you think that contradictory statements are suspicious? We need more information, and the only way to get that information is by pressuring people, scum starts with an information advantage and the faster we work to even that out, the better position we'll be in. I agree that we need more information and we get that from pressuring people, but we need to do that smartly. If too many people are throwing around minor accusations all the time, it just confuses the town and allows mafia to sit back and laugh. That is what happened in NMM XIII when I was mafia. Ask austin, he was in it too. On June 14 2012 03:38 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 02:45 s0Lstice wrote:
Crossfire99, what do you think of what I said about Mouldy Jeb?
Roflwaffles55, same question. Yeah Mouldy is acting really weird. He needs to get active to explain himself. Everything he has said so far lacks good reasoning. On June 14 2012 03:50 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 03:24 s0Lstice wrote:On June 14 2012 02:02 Crossfire99 wrote:
--snipped
Be careful roflwaffle, votes are only easily removable if you are around to remove them. You never know what might happen. Also, votes early on in the day cycle that don't really mean much followed by complete disappearance during a controversial lynch can be scum tactic to avoid making mistakes in a heated debate that occurs last minute.
What an odd thing to say. Your message boils down to: don't vote because you might not be around later, and when that happens you are going to look scummy. Discouraging voting for such an arbitrary reason looks kind of scummy. Also, this hall-monitor stuff is a comfortable way for scum to post and have it look like they are pro-town. I never said don't vote. I just said be careful about throwing your votes around willy-nilly under the premise that you are going to remove them later. I never even said don't do that. I just don't want someone sticking someone else with a vote for flimsy reasons that ends up sealing a lynch because they couldn't get back in time to change it. That was the entire point of those two sentences. As for the mention of the scum tactic, I'm just saying that sometimes scum can not take part in big discussions later in the day by voting early and then disappearing. I'm just trying to help roflwaffle, by trying to get him to think about taking his vote seriously and having good reasons for whatever he does. If no one holds anyone accountable mafia can just breeze on by. 3) notice his defensive, and meek tone; in addition to his low post count. he's obviously afraid to attract attention to himself 4) he was lurking for a LONGGG time before he finally decided to post . What u thought we all forgot about that? Not much there. His bit on crossfire is way more robust than his bit on golden or MJ, but still doesn't feel like a whole lot of scumhunting for a day. Again though, I want to wait on him.
That leaves me with cross. ##Vote: Crossfire99What I'd ask of everyone is to show me where Crossfire has done any scumhunting. He posted a little, dropped off the face of the earth, came back, responded to everyone's comments towards him, but never even gave us a single read throughout the day. Nobody looked scummy, because he really just didn't comment on ANYONE. I'm confused as to how that can be towny behavior, and he dropped in, spent time responding to all these people, but spent 0 characters doing any kind of hunting himself. Lurking is bad, but you can lurk and contribute when you pop up. HeavOnEarth didn't contribute when he came back. Crossfire didn't contribute when he came back, except addressing our concerns about him. Between the timing of the votes on HeavOn and the lack of any push on him, I'd rather go with Crossfire today. . Like I mentioned earlier, I think austin's reasoning when related to me gets clouded a little by our last game. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now and hopefully he'll come around, but if he continues this tunneling unnecessarily then I'll have to reconsider. Trackdoor then comes in and votes last with this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 08:52 trackd00r wrote:
I was checking Heaven's filter.
I must admint that he looks suspicious at this stage of the game. I was expecting from him a more detailed analysis of his play, since he stated that he has more experience in playing mafia.
I dislike the fact that he took the most easy target to pressure (golden), instead of trying to outline the other players, He also adds some points against CF, but isn't really big of a deal.
Although I share some suspicions with him, I see that he is not contributing at the same level as the rest of us are. I don't really think that it will be that much of a loss if he flips town. If that is the case, he have a whole post history behind us too see who bandwagoned and who tried to hunt down mafia
As I don't want a NL, I'll change my vote to heaven.
##Unvote: O.Golden_ne
##Vote: HeavOnEarth . He is now just jumping on the obvious bandwagon. I'll give a null read on this until I can go through his filter. I think that leaves everyone except for me and Heavon. I won't even bother quoting Heavon. He just went with a weak vote on Golden and then got lynched. And I missed the lynch for the reasons stated above. Ok. That's all the time I have for now (I should have gone to bed an hour and a half ago, but whatever). I don't know if I'll be back in time before the night ends to post some more thoughts, so consider this my contribution for now. If I survive the lynch, I'll look into roflwaffle's filter and get a better read on him. I encourage you all to do the same and let me know what you think whether you agree or disagree. First of all, I just want to point out that I think you, Crossfire, missed a couple of my early posts on HeavOnEarth: + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 14:10 sciberbia wrote:HeavOnEarthI don't have all that much too analyze with HeavOn Earth, but a couple things look scummy throws suspicion on several easy targets + Show Spoiler +My main problem with him is that he has halfheartedly thrown suspicion onto golden, MJ, and crossfire. All three of these players were rather quiet (at least initially) and relatively easy targets. As s0sltice said, heavOnEarth's actual cases were unimpressive. Here are heavOnEarth's scumhunting posts: + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 23:52 HeavOnEarth wrote:...That said O.Golden_ne looks the most suspicious to me- *quotes Golden* Is there anything even remotely helpful in this post? Everyone knows NL is bad. he seems to be posting for the sake of it also, i checked his last game, (he was townie) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=337671&user=92568 u can tell his tone is completely different, and he is generally more helpful. also id like to point out crossfire is completely inactive, whereas in past games he was a pretty talkative little townie. thoughts? On June 14 2012 02:39 HeavOnEarth wrote:As for my suspicions, golden still hasn't replied, and there seems to be a lot of random fluff RIGHT AFTER my accusation, by both Mouldy Jeb AND crossfire( oh hey there nice of u to suddenly wake up ) this is a common mafia tactic, to throw the spotlight off someone being accused. check out Mouldy Jeb's posts, and accusations Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 00:20 Mouldy Jeb wrote:
nope roffle that was a gut feeling about you that why I stated I have no evidence Why would someone try to direct suspicions with NO reasoning? And now he becomes wishy/washy + Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 09:32 HeavOnEarth wrote:
was sort of waiting for MJ to post something after he was like hurr durr ima post soon. i took a look at his previous game though and his posts seem consistent from when he was townie. hes really not helping at all, and definitely still looks scum, but it feels like poor town play rather than mafia.
as for golden im still undecided since he hasnt posted anything what the fuck -_-. why sign up if ur not gonna fucking play
but i guess i doubt hes mafia, i would've expected at least a simple reply to my accusations if he was mafia by now. but it seems he just doesnt give a fuck
@_@ idk. kinda confused at this point In this post he becomes wishy/washy about his suspicions on MJ and golden. In particular he says "as far as golden im still undecided". What? Before, golden seemed most suspicious to heavOnEarth. Only recently has he become undecided. This is pretty wishy/washy. The only reason I don't see this as super scummy is that he voluntarily adjusted his reads; nobody asked him to clarify them. My suspicions on HeavOnEarth are tempered by some of the boldness in his filter, such as -- saying "it doesn't matter if your suggestions are completely bad" -- his questioning s0Lstice about the lynch not being for 24 hours -- his abrasive summary of how MJ and golden have been playing Overall, I'd say HeavOnEarth is somewhat suspicious On June 14 2012 17:27 sciberbia wrote:
Personally, I'd like to vote for suki, crossfire, or HeavOnEarth. I have no read on MJ or golden. I would not like to lynch alan.
the hour in between my post on suki and my post on crossfire/heavOnEarth
+ Show Spoiler +
was spent writing the post. I just wanted to get some thoughts out there, and split up my posts to make them easier to swallow, much like you did in your splitting up of posts in accusing me.
"soft defense" of HeavOnEarth
+ Show Spoiler +
I think the term "soft defense" is pretty misleading. I listed him as one of the three people I would vote. However, I wasn't too sure about any candidate, and least sure about HeavOnEarth. I listed what I found townie about each candidate as well as what I found scummy. You'll notice that I pointed out one townie line of suki's as well. As to why I read those statements as townie, it's because boldness is generally a townie attribute.
asking s0Lstice about miltonkram
+ Show Spoiler +
I was in the process of thining about who might be mafia if it's not suki, and I was thinking that miltonkram was next most likely after suki.
I saw s0Lstice make a scumhunting post in which he suggested he would be going to bed soon. I really respect s0Lstice's opinion, and I think he is townie. I wanted his honest opinion on miltonkram before he went to sleep. That's all there is to it.
NK analysis+ Show Spoiler +
I really like NK analysis. austinmcc died for a reason, and I want to know what it was. Knowing whether or not the last mafia is a roleblocker could certainly prove useful. And it helps explain why I think austinmcc was killed: he looked blue to mafia.
@alan
+ Show Spoiler +
As s0Lstice pointed out, I've been suspicious of suki all game.
I thinks s0Lstice is townie for his general townie vibe and large contributions to the death of confirmed scum. He was the driving force behind the HeavOnEarth lynch.
I disagree with your read on Golden. I don't think HeavOnEarth's attacks on him look like a bus.
I'm not saying miltonkram is really scummy, but I think it's plausible that he is mafia.
Sorry, my question about 3 NKs was a joke. 3 NKs would be completely overpowered.
My comments on the vigilante situation
+ Show Spoiler +I don't see what I did that is so suspicious or logically fallacious. I'll try to explain more: On June 16 2012 09:16 sciberbia wrote:
@s0lstice
I don't think it makes too much a difference whether vigi claims or not. Vigi will obviously claim if in danger of being lynched, and we will obviously believe them unless there is a cc (in which case it's gg). So the only way vigi can ever get lynched is if it comes down to 3/4 players left and the scum fakeclaims vigi. So I don't think it can possibly hurt for vigi to wait until 5/6 players left before claiming.
I think there is a very slight benefit to vigi not claiming today. The benefit is that scum has fewer good NK options.
Overall, I think it'd be very slightly beneficial for vigi to wait till 5/6 players left before claiming. But it's not at all a big deal, and if vigi judges that the knowledge that they (the vigi) is confirmed is helpful to town, I have no problem with that. This analysis is all under the assumption that there can only be one vigi. Given that assumption, I think it can't hurt for the vigi to wait until 5/6 players left to claim. I don't think anyone had a problem with this post. On June 16 2012 09:57 sciberbia wrote:
crap just realized there could potentially be two vigis. So my previous thoughts about cc'ing vigi and scum fakeclaiming vigi don't fully apply. Still, I think it is most likely that there is only 1 vigi, and I don't think it really matters whether or not he claims today. Here I realize that we could potenially have two vigis, so previous analysis no longer full applies. I don't think anyone could have a problem with this either. Here are my thoughts on thinking that a (potential) second vigi should claim: -- I didn't want it to come down to LYLO and then have scum say "I'm vigi. I shot roflwaffles N1 too." And then not know if he's fakeclaiming -- If scum were going to fakeclaim the second vigi, I think it'd be beneficial to make them do it sooner rather than later. Force them to make the committment now rather than leave their options open -- If we are going to clear alan as confirmed vigi, we need to be sure that there was not some other vigi that shot roflwaffles -- If we do actually have 2 vigis which shot roflwaffles, I see no harm in telling them both to claim Oh, I literally just realized what you're all probably upset about. I didn't want a one-shot vigi to claim before using his shot. I was just assuming in my mind that if we had 2 vigis, they both would have shot roflwaffles. I see now what you all found so suspicious. Of course a one-shot vigi should not claim before using their shot.Let me know if this is stil unclear.
Anyway, I'm going to be afk for about 2 hours. Let me know if you're unsatisfied with anything.
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Sciberbia, before you go, can you tell me what you think about my case on Unforgiven?
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yea good idea.
I've only read through it once and I have to go in like 5 minutes so here are some brief thoughts:
The mod warning on unforgiven seems like good evidence. I originally thought the replacement of MJ was evidence in his favor, because one of the mods said "he will be modkilled/replaced(probably replaced)" and I didn't think the mods would even consider modkilling a mafia. But you're right, I think we should have expected a modkill (or at least replacement) on unforgiven if he was town.
I'm not buying into your filter analysis on MJ too much just because of the really small sample size.
On Unforgiven though, I could definitely seem him doing some intentional lurking as mafia. I also really like how the kill of austinmcc would fit with him. Maybe he asked for opinions on austinmcc to see if anyone thought he was scummy before killing him?
I forgot about the mafia coaching. I think it's much less likely that the two confirmed scum would make the comments they did on MJ if they listened to mafia coach. I have been thinking to myself that of all the mafia to bus D1, MJ would be a great choice.
Overall, I think your case has merit, but I'm not as convinced as you are. Right now my list of 3 would be suki/unforgiven/miltonkram. If I'm alive tomorrow I'll think about it more, but I really have to go atm.
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@ s0Lstice
I was reading through the filters when I noticed your posts on Unforgiven. I was a little skeptical of the case, it seemed like you were reading way too far into host actions and such. The only thing I found scummy was HeavOnEarth's "bus" of MJ D1. Nevertheless your posts caused me to do a double-check of Unforgiven's filter.
I'd like everyone to take a look at this post.
On June 16 2012 02:35 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
edbwop: *a player..
is kinda hard to get the pulse of the game after 10pages but i will do my best. I a vanilla btw
What purpose is there in claiming VT? If a player is vanilla they should be happy to take a bullet for our blue roles. Claiming vanilla does nothing for town.
What does it do? Firstly, it makes it less suspicious when Unforgiven isn't shot during a night cycle. Secondly, it keeps Unforgiven from committing completely to information. Any actions a VT takes have the built in defense, "but I didn't have complete information." This seems advantageous since roflwaffles was still in the game at that time. If roflwaffles was still alive after N1, he could back down from the weak pressure he posted here.
On June 16 2012 03:09 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
In case i die, my 2 "best" reads (so far) are austincc and roflwaffles55.
They were trying to push a lynch on Crossfire, seeing as this wasnt working they decided a Bus from roflwaffles55 and austin will kept his target "just in case".
We still have 6 more hours till night ends right?
There is absolutely no reason for VT to claim VT. Lynch this guy.
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Ah one day Milton, I hope you will make peace with meta arguments ;D
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Day3![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/41ijy.png)
Mafia is all fun and games until someone wakes up with a machete through their skull.
s0lstice the Vanilla Townie has made his last analysis
With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch.
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ouch a machete, that's messy
gg guys
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gg s0Lstice, see you later.
Blue roles
@Cop
Out with a guilty, else don't out.
@Other blue roles
Jail keeper should have at least 2 innocent that is still alive.
@Last Mafia
Concede now
Please correct me if there is anything wrong with my suggestions, if not lets get on to scum hunting
I am reserving my judgement until more player shows up.
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a bunch of random things:
@alan
I think the matter of if/when cops and jailkeepers should out is subject to their judgement. A lot of it depends on who their innocents are, how many innocents they have, and how likely they think they themselves are to be NK'd. But you're suggestions seem reasonable.
@cop
Don't you dare let us lynch you without claiming your checks.
@jailkeeper
I only recently realized that jailkeeper can prevent kills by jailkeeping the last mafia. So, the person you jailkept N2 is confirmed townie, and the person you jailkept N1 is likely townie. Make sure to read zelblade's post explaining it and PM a coach or the hosts if you don't fully understand the rules. I didn't know about the ability to block kills, and this is quite important. The jailkeeper functions as combination of medic and cop now. Also, don't you dare let us lynch you without claiming your night actions
@everyone
check your PMs Strongly consider claiming a RB if you were RB'd. The only downside to claiming is the risk of exposing a jailkeeper.
@golden
Is it just me or are you claiming scum with this quote? Sorry if you've already addressed this somewhere.
On June 15 2012 06:27 O.Golden_ne wrote:
Looks like i'm going to have to do a little defence before the end of this day
I'm not really impressed with the case on me, if i get bussed off by the mafia and you see i flip scum i ask you consider HeavonEarth as a prime candidate or lynch.
I'll be doing some thinking about lynch candidates and I'll post my thoughts before sleeping. I want to hear some opinions on unforgiven.
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@Unforgiven
I did not go through his filter, but I think the sample size is really small, and I agree on bandwagon theory on him being an easy target to attack for a mislynch.
@sciberbia
I want to hear some opinions on
Don't feel obligated to response to this, but this reminds me of Crossfire's case against you. I will go into your history now.
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I would like to lynch unforgiven.
Unlike everyone else in the game, unforgiven has hardly any filter to analyse. He is a lurker in every sense of the word.
In addition, I think s0lstice's words have a lot of weight now that he is dead. He had some good analysis on unforgiven, especially regarding moderator actions, and the timing of the moderators asking for night actions. Notice that unforgiven has already given an excuse to be away for the next 3 days. He has an established excuse to keep lurking. And unlike everyone else who is active in this game, unforgiven's filter isn't going to get much bigger, he isn't going to slip like an active scum slips.
Notice that we are already out of good lynch targets, me aside. Town is already starting to point fingers at sciberbia, who was, up until the end of Day 2, one of the strongest townies in the game.
An unforgiven lynch of s0lstice makes sense. N1 he lynched a potential blue, because all the strongest townies had a bad read on him. N2, he lynches the townie who made the strongest case against him.
I realize that coming from the most suspicious person in the game at the moment, my words won't mean much. At this point in time, with strong townie reads on everybody and no solid scum leads, I feel my best move at this point is to lynch the lurker.
I realize that I gave a half-hearted case against golden after trackd00r bled blue. I also added my thoughts on milton possibly being scum after sciberbia brought it up. Both of my arguments have been discredited, and also ignored. My morale took a huge hit after trackd00r died. I don't have any more faith in my play.
Here's the question that I'm asking myself: When I don't have any good scum reads, who is more dangerous scum in the end game? A lurker, or a contributing player?
s0lstice's case against unforgiven makes sense to me. Since I know I am town, I already know that we're in a situation where mafia performed an early bus or even double bus. Given that, it seems that the weak cases made by scum against unforgiven, along with unforgiven/mouldyjeb not being modkilled TWICE, makes him the more likely suspect. Second, I would go after Milton, as the timing on bussing his potential scum teammates makes sense.
I will finish my post by simply saying this. You can believe me or not. If you don't believe me it will cost you a mislynch (of me) to find out. If for some reason the voting is not in a majority at the end of the day, I will change my vote to lynch the most popular candidate in order to prevent a NL, as that would be even worse for town than a mislynch of me.
Until then:
##vote unforgiven_ve
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EBWOP: An unforgiven lynch night kill of s0lstice makes sense.
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@Unforgiven
PLEASE come online and post more.
I doubt he is scum.
*The way he misses his votes seem careless enough. I think killing s0Lstice is a very good choice.
*The mods would have just ask for night actions in the scum quick topic if they were the ones not posting actions, assuming mods can post there
Are mods able to post on mafia quick topic if they really needed to?
@suki
To me, a suki night kill of s0Lstice makes more sense, especially seeing how you immediately talk about his case. During the night, you supported 2 cases, one on Milton and one on Golden.You even commented on MJ/unforgiven here:
Both HeavOnEarth and roflwaffle were on Mouldyjeb's case since Day 1. Highly highly doubt that they would double bus their own teammate that early.
Read: unforgiven very lurky. Possibly town, possibly scum, but can't analyse due to lack of posts. He looks more townie due to mafia double bus early Day 1.
You seems to change your stance very quickly, and you're currently attacking the easiest target right now based on the most recent dead guy's story.
You just slipped the same way rolfwaffle did:
Here's the question that I'm asking myself: When I don't have any good scum reads, who is more dangerous scum in the end game?
IMO, when I don't have any good scum reads, I will judge who is more scummy/townie and do the process of elimination. Read their filter, and look for clues like:
- who lead the lynch on the scum?
- Was it necessary for him to bus at that point in time?
- Is there a bias in my judgement?
Of course there are many more.
If I still have no reads, I revert and try to stay neutral, and reevaluate everyone based on new interactions. Call them out, get their reaction.
Like I said in rolfwaffle's "The nail in the coffin" case, only Scums have the motivation to look it this way: Who is more dangerous if left alive
Suki, I made a case against both you and rolf based on far sketched logic and knee-jerk defense. I later defended you to death and stated there is no way Suki and Rolf can be partners. I would hate to be wrong again changing for changing my mind the third time, but I can't ignore my own reads and stays stubborn.
For all fairness, here are some few points that is for suki:
- First and second scums were the ones to build cases? Feels bold and unlikely.
- Scum encourage townies to speak up and contribute?
- Lead a mislynch boldly, but you find an excuse for yourself for "no back-up plan".
However, I don't think it out weights your "scumminess", give your slip.
Now you have lost your last supporter, which I assume scum Suki would want to keep alive if there is any chance for her to escape a lynch. I would feel like a dumbass getting the wrong reads on you 3 times, but your lynch is unavoidable now, if you are the last mafia, I suggest you to out with it already, I won't change my mind this time till you spill green, that's when you are lynched. Do you concede as the last mafia?
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Here are my reads:
alan is confirmed vigilante.
crossfire is surely town. Both confirmed scum tried damn hard to get him lynched. Also, he calls out roflwaffles early in N1.
golden is almost surely town. HeavOnEarth spent most of D1 attacking him, and I really can't see an inexperienced/unconfident scum taking that route.
i think miltonkram is probably town+ Show Spoiler +
I still think it's possible that he is mafia only because there is no extremely strong evidence to the contrary. But it's unlikely. First of all, his attack on HeavOnEarth D1 has to be counted in his favor. He made some solid contributions to getting HeavOnEarth lynched. Next, it also seems out of character for him to NK austinmcc. I'd really have expected him to NK me or s0Lstice. Finally, his whole filter has a pretty townie vibe.
So, I think miltonkram is probably town
I'm leaning town on suki+ Show Spoiler +I made a case on her during D2 and here is what I listed as suspicious about her: -- her first case on trackd00r and how she backed down on it -- her stances on alan -- her stances on MJ and crossfire -- scummy defense of HeavOnEarth -- one of her comments on me -- accuses trackd00r N1 when roflwaffles was more suspicious I still think this is all suspicious. On D1, she contributed toward a possible mislynch of alan or trackd00r, didn't do anything on the cases of MJ or crossfire, and delayed more than anything the correct lynch of HeavOnEarth. However, I'm getting the same feeling with her as I did before we mislynched trackd00r. That while there is a lot of circumstancial evidence aginst her, there isn't any truly conclusive evidence, and it's possible she is just a victim of circumstance. In my mind, there are a few really good pieces of evidence that suki is town: NK of austinmcc + Show Spoiler +
I just really don't see suki making this NK. I don't think the mafia coach would have suggested this NK to suki, and I highly doubt she would have proposed the idea on her own. Not only does it seem out of character to make such an odd choice of NK, but I think I am right in saying suki was being collectively viewed as one of the most suspicious people during N1.
She would need to get mislynches on people seen as scummier than her. And austinmcc could potentially have been subject to a mislynch. I truly feel that suki would have NK'd s0Lstice, myself, miltonkram, or alan.
Finally, suki has been very active this entire game, and I'm sure that if she were mafia, she'd be active in the mafia QT as well. I don't think she'd have the mods panicking that she wouldn't get the NK in. So I think the whole NK of austinmcc is very good evidence in favor of suki being town.
refusal to give up and general townie vibe + Show Spoiler +
At several points over the last couple days, suki has looked sure to be next on the lynch list. Especially when myself and s0Lstice were both attacking her as the number 1 target. Yet she has if anything grown more active. I don't think she'd be putting such an effort into the game if she knew it was pretty much over. Also, the language of her posts have read as increasingly townie to me throughout the game. I don't think she'd come off as this townie to me if she were mafia.
So, I am going to look past the circumstancial evidence, and conclude that I'm leaning town on suki
I think unforgiven_ve is very likely mafia
+ Show Spoiler +the NK of austinmcc + Show Spoiler +In case you guys haven't noticed by now, I really like to analyze NKs. Especially when we are down to 1 mafia calling all the shiots The thing I like most about this case is that the NK of austinmcc really fits here. I honestly would have expected unforgiven to NK miltonkram or s0Lsice, but it wouldn't be out of character for him to completely ignore the mafia QT and NK austinmcc. He is very sure of himself. He also tried to get some opinions on austinmcc during N1: On June 16 2012 03:09 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
In case i die, my 2 "best" reads (so far) are austincc and roflwaffles55.
They were trying to push a lynch on Crossfire, seeing as this wasnt working they decided a Bus from roflwaffles55 and austin will kept his target "just in case".
On June 16 2012 05:57 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
to sciberbia and s0lstice, you guys being very good analyst and posters. i want you please read austincc's filter, be in his place, he is(should be) pretty confident about his posting skills, the avoiding of the Heaven issue, he kept his vote on crossfire and relys on his defense/persuassive skills.
On June 16 2012 06:04 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
ebwop: i want to point out im not making a conclusive acussation on austin, i just want you guys to analize a little how he is playing.
It makes a lot of sense for mafia to try to gauge the town's opinion on a target before NK'ing him. If there is a lot of suspicion towards austinmcc, unforgiven surely wouldn't want to kill him. s0Lstice said that his "cursory opinion was that austinmcc was town" and I didn't comment until the very end of the night (also with a townie read). So it makes sense that unforgiven would then shoot austinmcc (looks green to s0Lstice; nobody else jumped on the oppurtunity to attack austin; presumably looked blue to unforgiven) Look at what unforgiven says. He puts austinmcc in his top two, explicitly asks for the opinions of influential townies, and then pointing out that his accusation is not conclusive, but he just wants to see our analysis. Makes perfect sense if he is considering NK'ing austinmcc. Another thing that fits with this theory: On June 16 2012 03:09 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
In case i die, my 2 "best" reads (so far) are austincc and roflwaffles55.
They were trying to push a lynch on Crossfire, seeing as this wasnt working they decided a Bus from roflwaffles55 and austin will kept his target "just in case".
We still have 6 more hours till night ends right? Looks like he is holding off on the NK and just wants to make sure he doesn't miss the deadline. Finally, the scrambling of the mods to get all the night actions makes a lot of sense for unforgiven. He doesn't do a lot of communicating, in thread or out. I'm not sure he'd even have went to the mafia QT after replacing MJ. And he was busy/lurky all night. AND it looks like he was waiting until the last second to decide if austinmcc was a good NK. Extreme lurkiness + Show Spoiler +
I am generally a bit soft on lurkers. But, all the active players are giving me a pretty good townie vibe. This is when it really makes sense to lynch a lurker. Lynch somebody who hasn't been working hard to earn your trust all game with contributions to town. Lynch someone whose filter is so small, you can't tell whether their posts are scummy or not. 6 out of 7 of the remaining players have given town many, many posts to analyze for possible scummy play. But none of them look particularly scummy. So you lynch the 1 guy that has refused to give you anything to analyze. MJ/unforgiven.
Also, I could totally see both MJ and unforgiven intentionally lurking. MJ has lurked as townie in past and been mislynched for it. So maybe he thought he'd lurk again in the hopes we'd assume he's town. And if unforgiven were mafia, I could see him
a) not wanting to put much effort into a game where he is outnumbered 8 to 1
b) making the decision to try to lurk for a win
Not getting modkilled + Show Spoiler +
I think this is some decent evidence against him. His situation was different than crossfire's. He didn't show much interest in actually playing. If he were townie, I suspect he would be modkilled.
D1 bussing with MJ + Show Spoiler +I think s0Lstice covered this pretty well. The bussing of MJ on D1 was pretty weak (and wishy/washy) and didn't make it much more likely that MJ would get lynched. Let's roughly rank some potential buses on how much they actually contributed toward getting their target killed: -- s0Lstice on HeavOnEarth (confirmed not bus) -- alan on HeavOnEarth -- sciberbia on roflwaffles (yes I'm biased ) -- alan on roflwaffles -- sciberbia on HeavOnEarth -- miltonkram on HeavOnEarth -- HeavOnEarth on golden -- roflwaffles on crossfire -- HeavOnEarth on crossfire -- suki on HeavOnEarth -- golden on HeavOnEarth -- crossfire on roflwaffles -- unforgiven on roflwaffles I'm sure I've missed some, and the ranking isn't really important. What's important is the perspective: where do the potential buses of HeavOnEarth/roflwaffles on MJ rank? At the very bottom. Maybe right above unforgiven on roflwaffles. They did not contribute much at all toward actually getting him killed. These buses don't seem nearly as risky as any of the others. HeavOnEarth/roflwaffles didn't have a lot of thread influence to begin with. And their attacks on MJ were hardly committed, as s0Lstice pointed out. So it was wrong of me to clear MJ based on these weak attacks. claiming VT + Show Spoiler +Minor point imo. Here is miltonkram's post on it: On June 19 2012 08:44 Miltonkram wrote:
What purpose is there in claiming VT? If a player is vanilla they should be happy to take a bullet for our blue roles. Claiming vanilla does nothing for town.
What does it do? Firstly, it makes it less suspicious when Unforgiven isn't shot during a night cycle. Secondly, it keeps Unforgiven from committing completely to information. Any actions a VT takes have the built in defense, "but I didn't have complete information."
...
There is absolutely no reason for VT to claim VT. Lynch this guy. s0Lstice thought he was mafia + Show Spoiler +
First of all, s0Lstice is a pretty smart dude. And he was townie. And now he's dead.
s0Lstice wasn't the perfect NK for mafia. He was a likely subject of protection from medic/jailkeeper. Additionally, he didn't look blue at all. Additionally, if unforgiven were hypothetically NOT mafia, having s0Lstice around for D3 would help to push another mislynch. So why did he die?
The NK of s0Lstice makes perfect sense if Unforgiven is mafia. Do you really think unforgiven would be able to avoid getting lynched today if s0Lstice were still in the game? I doubt it.
In conclusion, I think unforgiven is likely the last mafia.
##Vote unforgiven_ve
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o: cool, i see im the main suspect now.
I promise i will read all of the thread tomorrow and have a answer for you. Like this days, i just got home . Sorry for not being of any use , for now i just cant tell you im not mafia, im just a vanilla townie.
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On June 19 2012 13:14 alan133 wrote:@sukiTo me, a suki night kill of s0Lstice makes more sense, especially seeing how you immediately talk about his case. During the night, you supported 2 cases, one on Milton and one on Golden.You even commented on MJ/unforgiven here: Show nested quote +Both HeavOnEarth and roflwaffle were on Mouldyjeb's case since Day 1. Highly highly doubt that they would double bus their own teammate that early.
Read: unforgiven very lurky. Possibly town, possibly scum, but can't analyse due to lack of posts. He looks more townie due to mafia double bus early Day 1.
You seems to change your stance very quickly, and you're currently attacking the easiest target right now based on the most recent dead guy's story.
I realize that I am bouncing around now. I think it has to do with just losing all faith in my own judgement, in addition to no one's really listening to me anyways. I still want to post my reads, still want to try to contribute my thoughts when people bring up cases. I still want to believe I can help push for a victory, instead of crawling into a hole and disappearing for the rest of the game because no one will believe me.
You just slipped the same way rolfwaffle did: Show nested quote +Here's the question that I'm asking myself: When I don't have any good scum reads, who is more dangerous scum in the end game? IMO, when I don't have any good scum reads, I will judge who is more scummy/townie and do the process of elimination. Read their filter, and look for clues like: - who lead the lynch on the scum?
- Was it necessary for him to bus at that point in time?
- Is there a bias in my judgement?
Of course there are many more. If I still have no reads, I revert and try to stay neutral, and reevaluate everyone based on new interactions. Call them out, get their reaction. Like I said in rolfwaffle's " The nail in the coffin" case, only Scums have the motivation to look it this way: Who is more dangerous if left alive
No, and actually I distinctly thought of rofl's slip when I wrote that. The thing is, the situation is different now. When rofl slipped, it was Day 1 and there weren't many cases to be made. He made a list of who was most dangerous to keep alive when there was a clear chance of hunting scum.
I feel that this case is different because pretty much everyone can be read as town. The case against me has been getting stronger and stronger, and even though there have been cases that have been made against Milton, Golden and even sciberbia, the case against me remains the only strong one (aside from unforgiven, whose is increasingly coming to people's attention). The thing is, I'm town. I know this, even if no one else knows this. And if I'm town and everyone looks like town to everyone else, then there's a problem. The problem is no one will look particularly scummy once I am mislynched.
In a situation like mine, where no one looks scummy, wouldn't you agree that a lurker is extremely dangerous? If the lurker is a mafia, then town will rip itself apart trying to find the last mafia while the lurker gets a free ride simply because their short filter looks mostly townie. On the other hand, if the lurker gets taken out, all the ones who remain are players who have been active throughout the game. It's much easier to find scummy behaviour in an active player's filter. It's much easier to analyse the night kills as well.
In short, my words may seem similar to rofl's but the meaning that they carry is different. In addition, my perspective is unique, because only I know my own alignment. So if you think I'm guilty, then your perspective is everyone looks town except suki, therefore she must be the last scum. I can't argue that perspective, but I can implore you to still consider other options rather than pat yourselves on the back as if the game will be over once you lynch me.
Now you have lost your last supporter, which I assume scum Suki would want to keep alive if there is any chance for her to escape a lynch. I would feel like a dumbass getting the wrong reads on you 3 times, but your lynch is unavoidable now, if you are the last mafia, I suggest you to out with it already, I won't change my mind this time till you spill green, that's when you are lynched. Do you concede as the last mafia?
The case on unforgiven has merit. In addition, if unforgiven remains alive after today, he may continue to remain alive as the game progresses, because his play isn't going to look any scummier if he continues lurking. I'm still going to be here. The case against me will still remain, and grow bigger as I continue to post.
Basically, if you think I'm scummy, still have a really good look at unforgiven and at the case against him and decide how likely it is that he's scum. Then, vote for who you think is most likely to bleed red. But please consider other cases, not just mine, because the game won't end if I die.
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@Suki
Damn it. I wrote an entire post and accidently hit refresh. When I hit back my text was no longer there, but below is more or less my post:
I totally missed s0Lstice's case on Unforgiven. Back off my mind he reads Unforgiven town, and if anything he probably based it after you are lynched and flipped town. If that is true, you were jumping back and forth, thus increasing my suspicion towards you, ultimately leading me to think you are actually the final mafia.
Now that I read it, I know that is not the case. He actually based his case on some observer's post, and it has been edited out. [green]May I know about the original context of Xatalos's post? I feel kinda unfair because it's information that I can never ever get, and now s0Lsdice is gone I couldn't ask him. I am currently guessing this is the original context:
+ Show Spoiler +Mods not banning Unforgiven/MJ for missing a vote twice
I am convinced by his case.
However, I am weary of his NK. It seems too obvious to me and can be used easily by another scum to push the lynch on Unforgiven. However, like s0Lstice's said, "the most obvious shit is the shit".. I mean, you know what I meant.
Side Note:
Here's the question that I'm asking myself: When I don't have any good scum reads, who is more dangerous scum in the end game?
Now that I think from a townie Suki POV, it seems like you are confused because you can't even think of another scummier player than yourself. You got town read on everyone else, and everyone else is pointing their finger towards you.
I seriously don't want to make another read on you anymore. I jumped 4 times, starting with linking you and rolf, then defending you because I don't see my link, and back to accusing you, and now I am- Never mind, useless information.
@Unforgiven_ve
Please respond to your accusations. If you are blue please claim your night actions, now. If you think you can stop the lynch without replying:
##Vote Unforgiven_ve
Things I noticed:
- We never pressure Unforgiven_ve
- Unforgiven_ve lurks hard
- Unforgiven_ve was not modkilled for missing his vote
We also cleared Unforgiven_ve based on one thing: MJ/Unforgiven was bussed by 2 scums day 1 and it is "unlikely". However, like sciberbia said, there is no "danger" of getting MJ lynched.
I wrote a long case on Unforgiven, but many of the idea was gotten from reading s0Lstice and scribebria's case.
I just wanted to point this out:
+ Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 23:18 roflwaffles55 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 22:47 Mouldy Jeb wrote:On June 13 2012 16:25 Miltonkram wrote:
@alan
Just making a bit of a joke. I was referencing our last game together, NMM XV, when I voted for sciberbia in one of my very first posts on D1. You're right though, spending too much time joking around does not promote a pro-town environment. From here on out I'm 100% serious and in scumhunting mode.
##unVote: sciberbia you are suppose to be playing seriously if not then that would create the cloud of assumption that you are indeed scum random votes are related to scummy tactics so I already have my suspicions of you. also my suspicions of roflewaffles are slight but i have no further evidence that is incriminating him Hey mouldyjeb, glad to see you posting! Do you have any other evidence or reasons beyond miltons lighthearted attitude at the beginning? State them if you do, as well as any suspicions against me! Don't keep them to yourself! Also, what are your opinions on the cases so far, like mine against alan133 and suki's against trackd00r? I ask these because that was a fairly lackluster post when it comes to your first of the game and id like you to bring some fresh opinions to the table.
While this doesn't seem important, at that time I was thinking, why was rolf being so friendly at MJ. MJ was echoing exactly what I said, and his case on me was that I echoed scibebria when I debunks suki. This may not hold merit since rolf is a scum: he could done it just to "buddy up" a townie.
I see very little of Unforgiven and I want to see his responses under pressure.
@If Unforgiven was not Scum
I know I am drawing a lot of speculations here. But what if Unforgiven was not scum? Townie should not feel demotivated since he lurked and hardly contribute. I also think Unforgiven has a chance to flip blue, so unforgiven, if you are blue, Please out with your night actions before you are lynched
My policy is to stay neutral
If Unforgiven is Blue
+ His lurked. Fits in a blue situation
+ Mod not killing him for not voting
- However, he is generally not helpful and never came out with a stance
- His opening post randomly attacks one target
Unless a blue backs him up (be careful cops, there may be 2 godfathers), or he provided a satisfying defense, I will not change- + Show Spoiler +
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EBWOP: May I know about the original context of Xatalos's post? Filter the insults since I saw someone else said there is, but I want to know what message was there that made s0Lstice so sure about MJ/Unforgiven
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I commented on some stuff in the obs qt and xatalos posted something on the line of "zel slippin information in the obs qt". Not related to anything actually happening in the thread so you can ignore that ^^
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Back from work. Unforgiven, is there any reason why you claimed vanilla?
I'd like to open the question to everyone else as well. I'm not sure I'll get an answer from Unforgiven and I'd actually appreciate some sort of explanation if there is one. Is there any reason why a town player would claim vanilla? I honestly can't think of a good one.
Between HeavOnEarth's awkward "bus" and Unforgiven's VT claim I think we have all the evidence we need. I feel pretty good about this.
##Vote: HeavOnEarth
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@Miltonkram
How do we lynch a dead guy
##Vote: HeavOnEarth
I agree. I thought people claiming "I am town" is weird already. Who would say they are not? I did not point it out because so many people started his/her first post by saying "Hi guys, I am town". However, claiming vanilla town is totally different. There is no reason to claim VT, unless you really like to WiFOM, which confuses fellow townies and scums alike, unless you are scum.
@Correction to my previous post
Now that I read it, I know that is not the case. He actually based his case on some observer's post, and it has been edited out. May I know about the original context of Xatalos's post? I feel kinda unfair because it's information that I can never ever get, and now s0Lsdice is gone I couldn't ask him. I am currently guessing this is the original context:
I reread and noticed he only used Xatalos' post as one of the argument, not entirely based on it. However, this does not change my mind on his case.
If Unforgiven_ve flipped town.. I don't consider that as a possibility. We will talk about it until he did.
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Wow. I can't believe I did that. Work was pretty brutal tonight and I'm extremely tired. I meant to vote Unforgiven. My bad
##Unvote: Dead guy
##Vote: Unforgiven_ve
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on Xatalos's post
I saw the original post before it was edited. I think s0Lstice either misinterpreted Xatalos's post or read too much into it. The only thing of interest was that zelblade has been slipping information in the obs QT. But I could definitely see him doing this regardless of who is mafia. So I don't see this as evidence on unforgiven.
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following up with what sciberbia said, Xatalos' original quote did not mention the Obs QT. Therefore, I took it as Xatalos was implying that zelblade had slipped information in the main thread. I interpreted it this way, and I think s0lstice did too. This prompted s0lstice to take a much closer look at the mod text, which lead to his theory that because unforgiven had not been modkilled after missing his vote, there was some meta information that could be gathered from it.
In the end, there wasn't really a slip, but I do think s0lstice's point that the moderator actions are a big hint at unforgiven's real role has a lot of merit.
In addition, I'd like to point out that in Mafia XV, unforgiven never once claimed that he was vanilla town or even town, despite being a VT. In that game unforgiven got a lot of heat for his posting style (which was pretty anti-town and confusing), but he never tried to claim VT/town and use that as an excuse.
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@suki
I'm pretty sure Xatalos's post went something like this:
Hi s0Lstice. I've just been following the game a bit and posting reads in the obs QT. It's a shame I can't post them here because zelblade has been slipping information like crazy.
oh now I see how you may misinterpret it. I'm pretty damn sure that Xatalos was implying that zelblade was slipping information in the obs QT. Hosts slip information in obs QT's all the time.
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@sciberbia
I see. After reading rwhat mod said I thought it was weird s0Lstice based his argument on Xatalos's post.
Mod Said:
I commented on some stuff in the obs qt and xatalos posted something on the line of "zel slippin information in the obs qt". Not related to anything actually happening in the thread so you can ignore that ^^
from s0Lstice's case: I'll start with the point that Xatalos gave away. Look at how reluctant the mods are to kill this player
Perhaps Xatalos gave away more than what mod and you mentioned to me, but basing on what you both said: "zelblade has been slipping information on the obs QT."
More speculations and random thoughts drawn on this piece of information
- I did not know before, but Observers must not know the roles. There is no reason to "leak" information if not so.
- Observers were uncertain who is the last scum at this point, or is someone that no one guessed/no one really doubt.
- I would be concerned if point 2 is true. Observers were probably much more experienced player. If they got it wrong, I doubt this last scum is as obvious as we thought.
- That also means that s0Lstice's analysis may be correct: I don't know what is going on in the observer QT, but at that point, no one in the game second-guessed MJ/Unforgiven.
This may be a bit sketchy, but I assume we can semi clear Suki, seeing how everyone was so convinced she was going to be lynched day 3. Forget about this point, there are too many ways to interpret this.
Why is no one else commenting?
@Unforgive_ve
I am still waiting for your defence.
@Golden_ve
+ Show Spoiler +I just noticed both your names ends with "_ve"
I noticed you have not commented. You were active Day 1 and 2, why the sudden change after my case on you? Please don't be afraid to post because of that. There is only one more scum to go.
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@alan
Observers don't know the roles, but the hosts (including zelblade) do.
Xatalos' quote doesn't give us any information, so lets not analyse it too deeply. Again to reference Mafia XV, in the obs QT late in the game one of the cohosts posted 'One person's play is really impressing me right now'. The observers used the time of posting of that line and compared it to who had posted most recently in the main thread and came to a conclusion who was the last mafia. There would have been no way for the players to garner any information if an observer had said 'the mods slipped in the obs qt'.
What I'm trying to say is there's nothing to gain from analysing possible observer knowledge or observer reading. We should stick with what we know from the thread.
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FInally got some time!! i will read starting the last NK!
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Ok, first of all. Let me apologyze (again) for my lack of activity, real life is being a bitch.
Second, i want to respond to the most "stronger" argument against me, mods not killing me, i just can say this, i dont have a real or graphic way to prove it, (i dont know if its agains the rules to say this) but im gonna do it anyway.
After a couple pm's whit the main host about some other thing i asked him to put me in the replacement list, a couple days after a got a pm asking if i was ready to replace MJ, i say "zomg yes lolz" BUT...i didnt counted whit some RL complications, this made it harder to get the pulse of the game and find time to read-post, like i already said, if you check my last couple post you will see i made them around the same time (after 12-1am here)... I can see the mods not killing because i personally asked for a spot and because they dont want this to become another "bunch of modkill-replacements game" (like the last game, i, suki, austin, xatalos shaopi, solstice, sciberbia etc etc played)
3- In the past game i posted a list of recommentations of i think the game should be played, i see some of you are taking a lot of information from past games, this is what i said + Show Spoiler +Also, i have a reccomendation, please people, dont use PAST games as a guide, people change their way of play everytime, the last (and only) game i played, town got fucked (in part) thanks to this...i was mafia, lurking, bad town play and bad reads based on past games granted us the victory, only 1 mafia died thanks to a very lucky shot.
4.- Me claiming Vanilla Townie: from my pov, i wanted to make scumhunting easier for the town, when i realized i wouldnt have much time to post, i decided to come clear and say my roles, that way people had one less player role to worry about, i know "you are giulty till proven otherwise" but i gave it a shot, suki you have a different game whit different players/roles everytime, you cant play all the games the same way (read above) (whitout taking in account RL situations and free time to read/play)
5 .- Solstice case against me + Show Spoiler + On June 19 2012 03:59 s0Lstice wrote:Anyway, yea. Last scum is Unforgiven_veI'll start with the point that Xatalos gave away Look at how reluctant the mods are to kill this player. No vote on D1 from Mouldy Jeb, he gets replaced. No vote on D2 from Unforgiven, he gets a warning. Is the last scum going to get mod-killed, resulting in a town win? Doubtful. Now let's look at Mouldy Jeb I'll start with another game he was in, where he was town. Here are some select posts. Show nested quote +On May 21 2012 18:37 Mouldy Jeb wrote:
hi- now my presence is known. saying "get rid of a veteran" indicates that you are worried that an experienced Mafia player will either weasel you out~ if your mafia or kill you if you are not so due to this rash decision to get rid of competition so on that note #vote:Nova_Terra Show nested quote +On May 22 2012 22:22 Mouldy Jeb wrote:
early game i suspected nova because of rash decision making from his part and myself assuming the worst, matchew voting for me which wasn't given a viable explanation so i would be inclined to vote for matchew due to his random train of thought against others ## vote:mattchew He explains his reads here, then takes a firm stance with a vote. Look at this game: Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 22:47 Mouldy Jeb wrote:On June 13 2012 16:25 Miltonkram wrote:
@alan
Just making a bit of a joke. I was referencing our last game together, NMM XV, when I voted for sciberbia in one of my very first posts on D1. You're right though, spending too much time joking around does not promote a pro-town environment. From here on out I'm 100% serious and in scumhunting mode.
##unVote: sciberbia you are suppose to be playing seriously if not then that would create the cloud of assumption that you are indeed scum random votes are related to scummy tactics so I already have my suspicions of you. also my suspicions of roflewaffles are slight but i have no further evidence that is incriminating him Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 00:20 Mouldy Jeb wrote:
nope roffle that was a gut feeling about you that why I stated I have no evidence Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 00:29 Mouldy Jeb wrote:
my personal opinion so far, would be to keep tabs on miltontkram this is due to the fact that he randomly voted ( yes yes, its all fun and games until a misslynch)
I also do agree with suki on the "sketchy" behaviour of rofl but contradicting myself I feel you have raised some good points of scummy behaviour in your long post
and crossfire seems to be lurking. His reasoning is pretty weak in both games, but it's far weaker in this game. The baseless suspicion of roflewaffles is very, very telling. Looks like newb scum trying to appear like he is pressuring his teammate. The most important thing, however, is no votes. It doesn't match, and it's scummy. Now, move to Unforgiven. He has been useless this game, except for a weak bus on roflwaffles, which gives him just a smidge of town credit. Maybe enough to keep him off the radar while he lurks with purpose. Show nested quote +On June 16 2012 03:09 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
In case i die, my 2 "best" reads (so far) are austincc and roflwaffles55.
They were trying to push a lynch on Crossfire, seeing as this wasnt working they decided a Bus from roflwaffles55 and austin will kept his target "just in case".
We still have 6 more hours till night ends right? Look at how he dances around austin: Show nested quote +On June 16 2012 06:04 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
ebwop: i want to point out im not making a conclusive acussation on austin, i just want you guys to analize a little how he is playing.
This is just after he said his two main suspects were roflewaffles and austin. Now let's look at other games. NMM XV comes to mind. His filter is big, so I'll just highlight a few points. Show nested quote +On June 02 2012 05:27 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
im not a fan of this, but im gonna do it...
TOWN please, VOTE FOR SUKI, im pretty sure he is mafia!! I bet he is confortably sitting waiting for Ange777 to get lynched or a No Lynch at best.
Xatalos, if you arent mafia, please do this, a vigi can check me at night (if mafia dont kill me before) Show nested quote +On June 05 2012 06:45 Unforgiven_ve wrote:It's too late for me to try and convince you guys to change your votes, i think vivax will flip town, his last post voting for himself doesnt help tho. Guys, because i think im right about heist, maybe i will die this night, the only thing in my favor is being a terrible poster (they killed s0Lstice for being good=, maybe they want me to be alive to get more people confused. You are understimating the proof against heist, i still think there's a ver high change that heist and xatalos are mafia, i see they are playing a pretty standard "active" mafia, dodging attacks and siding whit the mayority (not before making his "preference" obvious to the town) triying to gaing some town credit. Right now i would kill heist, the way he started to play the game and how he acted around the suki lynch are my main motivation. This posts If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing. and I changed bacause I was not very condifent in either a Suki or Ange77 lynch and my Superouman lynch was useless. You agree that Unforgiven seems more scummy. I don't like how you are giving up to commit to a worse read. screams mafia for me. Show nested quote +On June 06 2012 07:51 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
##Vote heist, im not gonna spend more time explaining something so obvious Again, just like MJ, the tone does not match. He is sure-footed and comes down hard on his reads. Here, not so much. I feel like this post is getting pretty big, so I won't pull quotes from NMM XIII, but go have a look. He was scum in that game, and he lurked with purpose. He bussed teammates as well. It looks A LOT like what's happening in this game. That leads me to my next point. This game, right now, feels a lot like XIII. The scum lurked, and town tore itself to pieces, destroying the people with content (who were all town) one by one. It's been a seemingly insurmountable task to find the last scum in this game, and we've already started the process of slowly cannibalizing ourselves. It seems insurmountable because we (I) cleared the last scum based on bussing arguments. A wise man (thanks Marv!) told me in coaching PM's that bussing is only illogical for scum if it causes a scumbuddy to be lynched. When HeavOnEarth and roflewaffles bussed MJ, was there seriously any chance that he was getting lynched that day? No. Emphatically no. Them bussing him was not illogical, it was smart. Look at the confusion it caused. I bet Greymist has been in that scum QT insisting that they not be afraid to call each other out, and he was right of course. I'll even add NK analysis for the cherry on top. Why are our strong town reads still alive? Because we have been completely, utterly, wrong since Day 2 began. Unforgiven was free to blue snipe as he pleased (austin could look blue, no? he is cautious like a blue), because the big talkers were all wrong. Also, remember how the night action was so late? It's because Unforgiven has been busy, like he said. It all makes sense! FINALLY!!!!! Please let's kill Unforgiven_ve on day 3 and be done with this game. I want to feel the sweet taste of victory. On June 19 2012 08:44 Miltonkram wrote:@ s0Lstice I was reading through the filters when I noticed your posts on Unforgiven. I was a little skeptical of the case, it seemed like you were reading way too far into host actions and such. The only thing I found scummy was HeavOnEarth's "bus" of MJ D1. Nevertheless your posts caused me to do a double-check of Unforgiven's filter. I'd like everyone to take a look at this post. Show nested quote +On June 16 2012 02:35 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
edbwop: *a player..
is kinda hard to get the pulse of the game after 10pages but i will do my best. I a vanilla btw What purpose is there in claiming VT? If a player is vanilla they should be happy to take a bullet for our blue roles. Claiming vanilla does nothing for town. What does it do? Firstly, it makes it less suspicious when Unforgiven isn't shot during a night cycle. Secondly, it keeps Unforgiven from committing completely to information. Any actions a VT takes have the built in defense, "but I didn't have complete information." This seems advantageous since roflwaffles was still in the game at that time. If roflwaffles was still alive after N1, he could back down from the weak pressure he posted here. Show nested quote +On June 16 2012 03:09 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
In case i die, my 2 "best" reads (so far) are austincc and roflwaffles55.
They were trying to push a lynch on Crossfire, seeing as this wasnt working they decided a Bus from roflwaffles55 and austin will kept his target "just in case".
We still have 6 more hours till night ends right? There is absolutely no reason for VT to claim VT. Lynch this guy.
6.- alan133 + Show Spoiler +Please respond to your accusations. If you are blue please claim your night actions, now.
+ Show Spoiler +His opening post randomly attacks one target
7.- Milton again+ Show Spoiler +On June 19 2012 17:56 Miltonkram wrote:
Back from work. Unforgiven, is there any reason why you claimed vanilla?
I'd like to open the question to everyone else as well. I'm not sure I'll get an answer from Unforgiven and I'd actually appreciate some sort of explanation if there is one. Is there any reason why a town player would claim vanilla? I honestly can't think of a good one.
Between HeavOnEarth's awkward "bus" and Unforgiven's VT claim I think we have all the evidence we need. I feel pretty good about this.
##Vote: HeavOnEarth
8.- Suki again + Show Spoiler +On June 20 2012 01:48 suki wrote:
following up with what sciberbia said, Xatalos' original quote did not mention the Obs QT. Therefore, I took it as Xatalos was implying that zelblade had slipped information in the main thread. I interpreted it this way, and I think s0lstice did too. This prompted s0lstice to take a much closer look at the mod text, which lead to his theory that because unforgiven had not been modkilled after missing his vote, there was some meta information that could be gathered from it.
In the end, there wasn't really a slip, but I do think s0lstice's point that the moderator actions are a big hint at unforgiven's real role has a lot of merit.
In addition, I'd like to point out that in Mafia XV, unforgiven never once claimed that he was vanilla town or even town, despite being a VT. In that game unforgiven got a lot of heat for his posting style (which was pretty anti-town and confusing), but he never tried to claim VT/town and use that as an excuse.
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@ Unforgiven
Quick clarification, are you referring to mafia play here or just newbie play in general?
No, im a simple Vanilla, about hard bussing a scum on day 1, this is a ridiculous way to start a MINI game, remember we are all newbies, WE ALL WANT TO STAY ALIVE THE MOST TIME WE CAN, a experimented player cannot say to one of his mates "hey, we are going to kill on day one, sorry for not letting you have some fun"...the only time i see this can happen is when one mafia cannot play because of (again) RL complications and he gladly sacrifices for his team, i dont see this happening in a newbie/mini game.
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wow, 2 hours just reading and asnwering :S + the time to make this post.
Now, if someone has any doubt/question i would gladly answer it.
So...people...we can be sure of something, we have one last good/lucky mafia...i will just post my reasons for
alan: town
suki: town
sciberbia: neutral
crossfire: neutral
Miltonkram mafia
My reasons (this is all 100% filter based)
First, His good samaritan side + Show Spoiler +It looks like he's a non-native English speaker. I can understand him having difficulty with the language, let alone conveying a tone that pressures other players. If that's the case I would like to hear more of what he has to say. He's shown a willingness to think deeply and consider all possible lines of play that I think may be valuable to the town. By no means am I clearing him of suspicion, but there is a certain townie logic to some of his actions now that I think more about it. I think we have several better lynch targets anyway. I'll outline who I will support for lynch in my next post.
If you check his filter you see he has never been really pressured, being under the radar in general all the 3 days, he has fired some innocent question about "his reads" but never really putting pressure + Show Spoiler +roflwaffles55
I'm suspicious of this guy based on two of his posts. First one is a response to s0Lstice/sciberbia:
Sure!
When it comes to lynching lurkers I would agree in that it shouldn't be the focus, and would prefer to lynch someone acting scummy day 1.
As to NL, I am firmly against it and if we can't get a clear majority on scummy-acting folks then we should at least lynch a lurker, especially on D1 and 2.
Notice the eager to please tone of his post. I'm looking at it as a possible scumslip. His 2nd suspicious post:
I agree that I may have been a bit too aggressive right off the bat, but I implore you to look at my arguments and his, and take more from it then just an overzealous attempt on my part.
##unvote alan133
There you go, I'm still suspicious, but I may have underestimated the significance of a vote.
Notice how self-conscious he is in this post, especially in that last line. I realize that several players weren't interested in his case, but there is absolutely no harm in keeping pressure on a player until they give you a satisfactory defense. Essentially he backs down from his pressure based on a tiny reprimand from Crossfire. It seems like he's trying to keep himself out of the spotlight. @ roflwaffles
Ok, I see what you're saying. I thought you were completely backing off of alan even though you've made a decent case against him. I still don't like the fact that you took your vote off of him based on a wrist-slap from Crossfire, but I guess I misunderstood your intent. Since you're still pursuing your case on alan the unvote seems less scummy. HeavOnEarth
I was checking on the game at work + Show Spoiler + when I noticed this post and it struck me oddly.
was sort of waiting for MJ to post something after he was like hurr durr ima post soon. i took a look at his previous game though and his posts seem consistent from when he was townie. hes really not helping at all, and definitely still looks scum, but it feels like poor town play rather than mafia.
as for golden im still undecided since he hasnt posted anything what the fuck -_-. why sign up if ur not gonna fucking play
but i guess i doubt hes mafia, i would've expected at least a simple reply to my accusations if he was mafia by now. but it seems he just doesnt give a fuck
@_@ idk. kinda confused at this point
This just seems like an excuse for a lack of activity. He explains that he's waiting on MJ even though there's plenty of other things going on in the thread. He's also frustrated by one lurker (Golden) even though he's played Mafia before and knows that lurking usually happens in every game. The confused tone is what really gets me. I feel like town would push through the confusion and post reads no matter what. His "confusion" looks like an excuse not to post to me.
And after seeing Heaven is going to be lynched and its impossible to stop it he post this: + Show Spoiler +On June 15 2012 04:59 Miltonkram wrote:
Oops, slept in a bit later than I'd planned. s0Lstice, I'm inclined to agree with you. HeavOnEarth looks like the best lynch candidate.
Everybody, I'd suggest you take a look at him. His filter is not particularly long, but I think there is enough scummy behavior there to warrant a vote.
##Vote: HeavOnEarth On June 15 2012 05:48 Miltonkram wrote:
@ Heaven
There are a lot of people jumping on your case really quickly. Not gonna lie, it's making me a little nervous. Please post some sort of defense or at the very least what kind of reads you have on players whenever you have the time.
When he sees rolf is going to be killed/lynched after the case against him, he tries to gain some credit posting this + Show Spoiler +On June 16 2012 07:33 Miltonkram wrote:
Hey guys, just got caught up on the thread. Figured I'd throw in my two cents while I've got time.
The case against roflwaffles is the closest I've seen to a slam dunk case in any of the games I've played in. There's not much I can add to it. Proceed to string him up with my blessing unless of course we have a vigi, then just shoot the poor bastard.
Not much to add in suggestions for blue players either. Just breadcrumb your night actions so we can come back to them later.
I'll have more analysis up shortly.
Then he just goes whit the bandwagon and puts me as a sure mafia trying to gain one more day, expecting for a (almost sure) suki misslynch tomorrow, me + nk + suki would leave 3 town and 1 mafia, he just wants to gain some time and try to get another misslynch on golden/cross +NK =GG
and after all this, his subconscious betrays him and post this On June 19 2012 18:48 Miltonkram wrote:Wow. I can't believe I did that. Work was pretty brutal tonight and I'm extremely tired. I meant to vote Unforgiven. My bad ##Vote: HeavOnEarth##Unvote: Dead guy##Vote: Unforgiven_ve
Yeah, gg. I will try and check in tomorrow. sciberbia, suki and alan, please read milton filter's and put yourself in his position, read his posts, analyze his neutral play, under the radar in all the game
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On June 20 2012 07:49 Miltonkram wrote:@ Unforgiven Quick clarification, are you referring to mafia play here or just newbie play in general? Show nested quote +No, im a simple Vanilla, about hard bussing a scum on day 1, this is a ridiculous way to start a MINI game, remember we are all newbies, WE ALL WANT TO STAY ALIVE THE MOST TIME WE CAN, a experimented player cannot say to one of his mates "hey, we are going to kill on day one, sorry for not letting you have some fun"...the only time i see this can happen is when one mafia cannot play because of (again) RL complications and he gladly sacrifices for his team, i dont see this happening in a newbie/mini game.
Newbie games my scummy friend
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oh, and Crossfire, your analisus about sciberbia was very good, i was inclining to him being the last scum, till i realized milton was still alive for no apparent reason .
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Unforgiven, I understand that RL limitations can play a factor, I also understand your reasons for every point you defend yourself against. I don't buy that the mods wouldn't just simply modkill you for failing to follow the most basic rule (vote every night), especially since you had the option to decline the replacement invitation if your life really was busy at the time. By agreeing to play the game you agreed that you had the minimal amount of time to play the game. The mods have no obligation to excuse you for not fulfilling your roles in this game.
Now there are two things about last game's unforgiven that I remember. The first is, you got frustrated at everyone and started insulting people when they wouldn't listen to you, and you refused to explain your reads half the time. The second is, you were right for pretty much the entire game. You called me out almost instantly for being scum, and you called heist and Xatalos out really early too.
You are really good at reading people and scum hunting. So in order to get yourself out of this situation I want to see you analyse the remaining players in the game and tell me who you think is scum, and why.
If you really are scum, I have no doubt that you'll slip. If you're town, then you'll be able to help with a town victory. And if you somehow fail to convince us, then either the game will end come lynch time or your reads will help us secure a victory for the town in the end.
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Ah, unforgiven posted while I was saying all that. I am going out so I will have to comment later.
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I want to make a few comments on the situation we're in.
We seem to have consolidated on Unforgiven for our lynch today. Do not let this kill discussion! I see no harm in moving our discussion forward.
At this point our scum player has no one to defend but himself/herself. There is no one on the scum team left to protect anymore so any comments that our scum player makes are with the full intent of making himself/herself look as townie as possible as opposed to covering the tracks of another player. I say this because suki and I are likely the next players on the chopping block. Under this reasoning there's almost nothing we can do to convince town of our innocence. There's nothing suki can do to convince me she isn't scum if Unforgiven flips green, and, if I'm thinking correctly from any of the confirmed town players' viewpoints, there is nothing that I can do to convince you of my innocence.
Back to my point. We're lynching Unforgiven today but there is no harm in getting things out of the way for future discussion. If the game continues after this day cycle because Unforgiven flips green (I find it really unlikely at this point), either suki or I is next. First of all, is this correct? Do you guys have any questions for either of us or things you need clarified about our play? If this is correct and you decide on lynching one of us, consolidate on it quickly and let us know that there is no way we can defend ourselves. That way, if we're town, we can spend our time helping out as much as possible rather than wasting it on a defense that no one will listen to anyway.
Edit: Just saw Unforgiven's case on me. Posting this anyway. Not really seeing anything in it that sciberbia hasn't already pointed out. Will respond to it shortly after I've reread it a couple times.
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lol, forgot to vote after 4 hours of reading ;D
##Vote Miltonkram
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I need to leave for work. Rereading Unforgiven's case, there's a couple points that I wouldn't mind clarifying when I get back. Other than that, sciberbia pointed out many of the same things about my play that Unforgiven is pointing out now.
I'll be back later tonight.
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Unforgiven's response didn't do anything for me. I'm not surprised, because my primary points of accusation are points that you cannot easily explain away. He has a lot of text, but doesn't say many things of substance. To summarize his post:
1+2) the mods had good reason not to modkill him
3) He wouldn't lurk as mafia again seeing as he did it in the past
4) Claiming VT made sense
5) His read on austin was just a hunch
6) D1 bussing doesn't make sense
7/8) Nothing really new
None of his arguments do much to convince me. He doesn't give any great reasoning for the mod-warning. I don't buy Point 3 -- I could definitely see him lurking as mafia again, especially if he is actually busy. He didn't say anything to convince me that his claiming VT helped town.
And I really don't get his comment on D1 bussing. He says that scum bussing on D1 is ridiculous in a mini newbie game. But then he lists suki as a town read, myself and suki as neutral, and miltonkram as scummy. What? If bussing is really that ridiculous, then everybody should look town to him except suki.
I also dislike his reads. How can crossfire possibly be more suspicious than suki? And he liked crossfire's case on me? Crossfire himself didn't like it, nor did s0Lstice. @Unforgiven I'd be interested to hear what you find suspicious about me. I'd have expected a townie unforgiven to read me as town. Maybe unforgiven just hasn't been reading the thread much, but his reads were great during XV and seem somewhat bad this game.
Finally, the general tone and length of his defense post suggest to me that he is scum.
What I'd expect from a townie unforgiven
-- If he announces that he's going to lurk, he'll lurk regardless of whether or not he is accused
-- If he does pop back into the thread, he'll scold people for being dumb and not provide a lot of reasoning
-- He'd make some good reads and sound confident about them
What I'd expect from a mafia unforgiven
-- Decides to lurk, but then defends himself when accused
-- Make some less than persuasive arguments because his heart isn't really in it. He knows he is wrong.
His defense seems more consistent with a mafia unforgiven.
IN SUMMARY
Unforgiven's defense has done nothing to dissuade me from voting him today.
I was also unimpressed with his case on miltonkram. I'll probably be posting some of my thoughts on it tonight, provided miltonkram doesn't beat me to it.
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None of his arguments do much to convince me. He doesn't give any great reasoning for the mod-warning How can i give reasoning about something that not depens on me? Its op's choice to warn me or replace me or kill me, its ridiculous if someones expect a good reason of something i have no control on.
I'd be interested to hear what you find suspicious about me You are overeager to show your "scum hunting" skills, you are trying to take (and have succeded so far) town leadership, you remember me of the guys who won the last game i played, people fell for it, people didnt want to REALLY analyze the way he was playing. Being closed minded doesnt help too, fyi.
If bussing is really that ridiculous, then everybody should look town to him except suki. The read i get from suki its a stardad newbie trying to be helpful, for some people (like me) its hard to make nice post whit colours and cute format, you need to just read and remember that thing you or alan posted here "sometimes the simple solution its the solution", dont expect posts from the people to "impress you", its a ridiculous and not helpful thing to do. He/she was trying to help and he/she got it wrong, its a newbie game, expect this A LOT of times. I've been there a few times already.
What I'd expect from a townie unforgiven
-- If he announces that he's going to lurk, he'll lurk regardless of whether or not he is accused
-- He'd make some good reads and sound confident about them
Kinda hard to make good and "confident" reads and lurk at the same time dont you think? Im pretty sure Milton is mafia, if for some reason he flips green, i will tip my hat to when you/cross flip red.
-- If he does pop back into the thread, he'll scold people for being dumb and not provide a lot of reasoning
Uh? i guess you are basing this on the last game...i quote "its so easy to change your style of play" and again, different situations i had a lot fo time to burn those days, cant do it now, open your mind, dont close your options basing it in one past game, you can do it (maybe) after a bunch of games you start to recognize the player different strategys
_______________________________________________________
What I'd expect from a mafia unforgiven
-- Decides to lurk, but then defends himself when accused
-- Make some less than persuasive arguments because his heart isn't really in it. He knows he is wrong.
So, if i lurk and give a easy lynch for mafia im town, if i try to defend myself i should get lynched because of it?
If you check my post im not really trying to be perssuasive, im trying to you people got and read and put yourself in Milton's position
Theres 2 option for the last mafia to do:
1.- Always be under the radar and try to not gain any enemies and always look like you are in the same sintony as town
and
2.- Be aggresive, take town leadership, point fingers to people who cant convince the town (for different reasons, posting, lurking, difficulty to express ideas)
Thats why you and cross are labeled as "neutral".
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I was really unimpressed by Unforgiven's case on miltonkram. Here are my thoughts:
on backing off of alan+ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 17:58 Miltonkram wrote:
I'm going to back down from my pressure on alan based on this post.
...
It looks like he's a non-native English speaker. I can understand him having difficulty with the language, let alone conveying a tone that pressures other players. If that's the case I would like to hear more of what he has to say. He's shown a willingness to think deeply and consider all possible lines of play that I think may be valuable to the town. By no means am I clearing him of suspicion, but there is a certain townie logic to some of his actions now that I think more about it. I think we have several better lynch targets anyway. I'll outline who I will support for lynch in my next post. I see your point about him possibly trying to gain friends by being a "good samaritan". Honestly, I was surprised at how easily people backed off alan. Here's a quote of myself summarising opinions on alan: + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 17:18 sciberbia wrote:
suspicious: suki, s0Lstice, waffles, miltonkram
not convinced: trackd00r, crossfire
defensive: me
no comment: MJ, golden, austin, HeavOnEarth At this point alan looked like a possible lynch target. But then one by one, miltonkram, then s0Lstice, then suki backed off their suspicions. Now at least 2 of these 3 are town. So there must have been something legitamitely townie-looking about alan that made them back off. And seeing as miltonkram was the first to back off a townie, I see this as evidence in his favor if anything.
on being "under the radar"+ Show Spoiler +First of all, if he has never really been pressured, what does that tell you? Everyone reads him as probable townie. Also, while miltonkram may not be the most aggressive player, I think he has done a reasonable amount of pressuring. See his post on suki below. He has done at least as much pressuring as golden, crossfire, MJ/unforgiven. miltonkram pressuring suki + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 18:49 Miltonkram wrote:
Suki has been painting track's two posts as directly contradictory even though they aren't. This could be an overzealous town play but I don't think it is. What possible motivation could there be for a strong attack on someone with a controversial opinion? Firstly, there's the chance that the town might bandwagon on it. This would be the best possible scenario for suki if she is scum. She leads a bandwagon D1 and she gets a mislynch. Secondly, she gains town cred for appearing aggressive even if she doesn't get the lynch. It seems like a win/win scenario for scum unless of course someone makes the analysis I'm making now.
In summary, the case on trackd00r is pure crap. Making a controversial statement is not a scumtell. I think suki is trying to cover her scumminess by appearing aggressive without making a good case.
contributions to the HeavOnEarth lynch+ Show Spoiler +
I think he contibuted quite a bit to the lynch of HeavOnEarth. He was third (after s0Lstice then me) to say HeavOnEarth was suspicious and the third/fourth (after s0Lstice, alan, suki) to vote him.
I don't see how miltonkram asking HeavOnEarth to defend himself is evidence against miltonkram. If he was genuinely concerned about the activity of his scumbuddy, he'd post in the mafia QT.
I really don't see what you're saying is scummy here.
his post on roflwaffles+ Show Spoiler +
Miltonkram agrees that we should lynch/kill roflwaffles after his death has already been decided. This makes perfect sense as either town or mafia. This certainly isn't evidence in his favor, but I don't see how it's evidence against him.
Accidentally voting HeavOnEarth instead of Unforgiven+ Show Spoiler +
Don't see at all how this is scummy. His subconscious betrayed him? If anything this makes me think he is town and sees both HeavOnEarth and Unforgiven as lurky mafia, so he confused them in his mind.
@Unforgiven
I still think you are likely mafia. But if you die and flip town, I will certainly pay attention to your reads. So I'd like to know if anything I said changes your mind on miltonkram. And if any of your other reads have changed as you've read the thread. Also, I know you've claimed VT, but if you are blue, please claim before we lynch you.
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@Unforgiven_ve
You forgot to mention Golden. Your case @ Miltonkram also fits him. However, he acts the same in another game i checked, except for the hostile response part.
@MJ/Unforgiven_ve
Rereading moudly jab's first day's posts, I don't feel like he is scum. He throws a random suspicion on rolfwaffle and rolfwaffle55 was really friendly to him. It feels like he is buying townie for rolfwaffle.
I am now no longer certain if Unforgiven_ve is scum. However, if no one views the same with me, then we will go ahead with the lynch.
Now, assuming Unforgiven_ve flips vanilla town like he said he would, what's next?
My next FoS is going to be s0Lstice. If O.Golden_ve failed to show up, I hope mods modkill him without replacement or something. I don't know. I am not gonna lie. I don't like how he lurks and I feel like if he is town he is throwing the game away for town by not contributing, so O.Golden_ve, please come back and contribute.
@s0Lstice
It sucks to say this, but after knowing what xatalos originally said, I feel like s0Lstice jumped too far in his analysis of Unforgiven. It seems like he is frustrated at figuring out who is scum, and as soon as he get a first vibe, he jumps on it. + Show Spoiler +Kinda like when I was in my Maths exam. When I think I figured out something, I jumped on it and don't want to care anymore.
He basically based his case on 3 things, please correct me if there are more:
- Mods did not kill him and mods hinted something in the observer QT.
Both are not directly related at all.
- We cleared Mouldy Jeb/Unforgiven based on "bussing".
Heavon ultimately went for O.Golden. There is no risk on that too. With trackd00r dead, all the remaining players voted for Heavon [spoiler]except for Crossfire but with a reason[/spoiler], so it means rolf and the last scum is bussing Heavon.
- Why vocal guys aren't dead yet.
s0Lstice died. When he made that statement, only 1 NK is made. Scums must be afraid the existence of a vigilante seeing how they shot a more quiet but contributing player in this game.
Why did he died
- He has good analytic skills and is considered a dangerous player for scums.
- Him revealing himself having a mentor probably made scums think that he has a role.
- Everyone has a town read on him. Like sciberbia said, he is the driving force for day 1 lynch
- His last case was on Unforgiven. (see below)
Case on unforgiven
I strongly doubt unforgiven or any of his "scum mentor" would suggest to kill him. That makes his case so much more powerful, and he won't be able to retract his reads. Of course, disregard any WIFOM that may exist. If unforgiven flips green, Last scum is looking to push a mislynch on unforgiven. My next question is "who"?
@Suki - Back to you, honey.
It was suki who was the first to jump on Unforgiven and I immediately thought she must be the last scum. Now that I step back and think, it is an understandable reaction. Suki thinks she is going to be lynched day 3, but she couldn't figure out who is scum. She have town reads on everyone and is confused. When s0Lstice pointed out that we cleared MJ/unforgiven based on a fragile reason, and she immediately thinks to herself "that's why!" and jumps on it eagerly. The same situation can be described by a scum's point of view, but it felt like it was too obvious if anything.
@sciberbia - Could it be he, the mastermind behind everything?
The second person who jumped on the Unforgiven bandwagon was sciberbia. Crossfire built a good case on him, but why did he back down? Sciberbia plays a lot like town, and he is known to be a very good player-I assume he is good at covering his tracks. S0Lstice is known to be a good player, and he defended sciberbia. Suki has a problem with sciberbia being scum because of the insta rolf bus. However, in order for me to see sciberbia as town like s0Lstice suggested, I studied two of his game as town. This is my analysis.
My analysis on sciberbia based on past games
He always started out with a policy talk, blue strategy or setup strategies in general. He list down his reads systematically. He do ask for other people's opinions on his case. I also noticed, in both of his games, the ones he called out were actually mafia. I would be lying if I said I am not impressed. Overall, his plays seems similar and there is not much to suspect........+ Show Spoiler +
After I have a good read on his filters in other games, I came back to his filters on this game. There is no You are scum post in day 1. None. Instead, he listed down already controversial players, and comment on them honestly. When I mean honestly I mean, trying to make comments based on townie's POV Passive comments that made sense without applying pressure on anyone, which seems like a big issue in his other games.
Newbie Mafia XV
+ Show Spoiler +sciberbia's case on Suki
In summary suki displays many characteristics of a mafia
- he is very hesitant to take a hard stance on anything
- he tried to pile suspicion on miltonkram, eishi_ki, unforgiven, and cattivik without really taking a strong stance
- he was wishy/washy in his accusations of both miltonkram and cattivik
- he tries to befriend active posters such as myself and xalatos
@Town
If you agree with me about suki, please say so, and indicate what in particular you find scummy. If you disagree, I'd like to hear you at least say so and give a reason why. Personally, I'm more confident about suki than anyone else so I will...
##Vote suki
+ Show Spoiler +Newbie Mafia XIVSciberbia's case against Miltion
...
IN SUMMARY:
I think milton is scummy:
- he hasn't posted a ton but enough not to be lurky
- he tried to pile supsicion on me but was wishy/washy about it
- he isn't sticking his neck out on anything
Have we seen any post like these from sciberbia in this game? None at all in day 1, and note that these posts were made in Day 1 in both games.
Also, this bothers me:
+ Show Spoiler +[QUOTE] On June 14 2012 17:18 sciberbia wrote:alan133There has been a lot of material posted on alan and an influential handful of people find him suspicious. Here's a summary of opinions on him: + Show Spoiler +
suspicious: suki, s0Lstice, waffles, miltonkram
not convinced: trackd00r, crossfire
defensive: me
no comment: MJ, golden, austin, HeavOnEarth
More of my thoughts on alan + Show Spoiler +
With 4 people willing to vote him, he is in danger of being lynched. I still do not think he is scum. His posts may be difficult reading, but overall, I think he has tried to be open and transparent.
It is true that he has taken up a policy of being indecisive and "open minded", but he has at least stated this forthright, instead of being sneaky about it.
I didn't follow his conspiracy theory either, but half-heartedly suggesting conpsiracy theories doesn't seem like something a mafia would be likely to do.
Finally, s0Lstice and suki have both talked about alan's over-defensiveness and reactionary aggressiveness. I'm just not convinced that these are attributes of a mafia. His defense just drew even more attention to himself - something that a mafia certainly would not want. To me, his defense reads as indignant and frustrated moreso than scared.
@MJ, golden, austin, HeavOnEarth I'd like to hear opinions on alan. He's drawn several players' suspicions. Would you be comfortable with lynching him?
What?
I checked his past games, and there are moments where players who he have a town read is getting lynched. What did he do in those games? + Show Spoiler +I am running out of time and this is getting really long, so I am not posting more quotes. Ask if you need it I will post it directly quoting your request.
Also, this may be over-speculation,
+ Show Spoiler + but sciberbia was VANILA both games. I am sure many people have caught an eye on him due to him calling out mafias in both games day 1, and I think many people wanted to see how he fair as scum/blue.
Townie points for sciberbia
The only scum that he directly called out was rolfwaffle in night 1. This may be the only point holding people back. I would be lying if I was not swayed by this. No reason for him to bus rolfwaffle, it will take 15 more days to win, and I think people rarely wants to sit through this 15 days.
I am not trying to take credit, but I did posted roflwaffle as my prime suspect before I wrote an entire post in it, and it was before sciberbia's case on rolf. Perhaps Sciberbia noticed the slip made by rolfwaffle, and sees that he generated a lot of suspicious around him? s0Lstice did say he has a good idea who is the 2nd scum is.
Sciberbia's supposedly bandwagony actions
He jumped on suki's case in day 2 after s0Lstice, arguing that trackd00r or suki is probably scums because confirmed scums did not attack them. Please keep in mind sciberbia was also in this category. He goes by saying did not contribute much to the lynching of both scums. Before the rolf post, has he really committed to any scum hunting?
Switching from Suki to Unforgiven_ve
If sciberbia is the last mafia, he could be doing this to buy more time to get another mislynch, with a dead guy supporting him.
I am all for lynching Unforgiven despite what I've said. I hope unforgiven spill red, and if so I am sorry for reading this wrong, sciberbia.
I am out of time, I will be back in a few hours later. Sciberbia, I reread your case on unforgiven and I thought those were solid arguments. I also noticed you were not free during day 1, so you could not come out with a solid scum read like you had in past game. Can you tell me why you changed your mind on suki? Other than you now a better lynch target.
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@alan
If unforgiven doesn't flip red (>_<) and you are seriously interested in lynching me tomorrow, I will post more defense then. For now, I will just comment on a couple of things.
you asked why I changed my mind on suki+ Show Spoiler +I addressed this a good bit in one of my earlier posts: + Show Spoiler +On June 19 2012 14:12 sciberbia wrote:I'm leaning town on suki+ Show Spoiler +I made a case on her during D2 and here is what I listed as suspicious about her: -- her first case on trackd00r and how she backed down on it -- her stances on alan -- her stances on MJ and crossfire -- scummy defense of HeavOnEarth -- one of her comments on me -- accuses trackd00r N1 when roflwaffles was more suspicious I still think this is all suspicious. On D1, she contributed toward a possible mislynch of alan or trackd00r, didn't do anything on the cases of MJ or crossfire, and delayed more than anything the correct lynch of HeavOnEarth. However, I'm getting the same feeling with her as I did before we mislynched trackd00r. That while there is a lot of circumstancial evidence aginst her, there isn't any truly conclusive evidence, and it's possible she is just a victim of circumstance. In my mind, there are a few really good pieces of evidence that suki is town: NK of austinmcc + Show Spoiler +
I just really don't see suki making this NK. I don't think the mafia coach would have suggested this NK to suki, and I highly doubt she would have proposed the idea on her own. Not only does it seem out of character to make such an odd choice of NK, but I think I am right in saying suki was being collectively viewed as one of the most suspicious people during N1.
She would need to get mislynches on people seen as scummier than her. And austinmcc could potentially have been subject to a mislynch. I truly feel that suki would have NK'd s0Lstice, myself, miltonkram, or alan.
Finally, suki has been very active this entire game, and I'm sure that if she were mafia, she'd be active in the mafia QT as well. I don't think she'd have the mods panicking that she wouldn't get the NK in. So I think the whole NK of austinmcc is very good evidence in favor of suki being town.
refusal to give up and general townie vibe + Show Spoiler +
At several points over the last couple days, suki has looked sure to be next on the lynch list. Especially when myself and s0Lstice were both attacking her as the number 1 target. Yet she has if anything grown more active. I don't think she'd be putting such an effort into the game if she knew it was pretty much over. Also, the language of her posts have read as increasingly townie to me throughout the game. I don't think she'd come off as this townie to me if she were mafia.
So, I am going to look past the circumstancial evidence, and conclude that I'm leaning town on suki The NK of austinmcc I have been considering strong evidence in her favor. The more recent things making me lean town on her are a) the existance of a scummier target (unforgiven) b) the language of her posts since D2 (in the face of her own death) have been screaming town to me Here are some examples: On June 17 2012 13:28 suki wrote:
I just really have had bad luck and bad reads. I have to say, it feels pretty awful to put so much effort into hunting scum, only to keep missing. I'd love to go over my thoughts behind my moves this game, but I'll do that post-game so I don't clog up the thread when we really need to focus on lynching scum. On June 18 2012 13:06 suki wrote:
I beseech you guys, even if you are 100% sure I am the last mafia, you have to have to have to keep analysing for the last mafia, because I am town and when you lynch me I will bleed green. Don't waste the entire day patting yourselves on the back for catching scum suki cuz you'll be unpleasantly surprised come nightfall =[
On June 18 2012 13:08 suki wrote:
@s0lstice
I don't know. Now that you put it that way, it seems so unlikely. HeavOnEarth doesn't seem like a sophisticated player that would do something like that. Golden also doesn't seem like he'd be around enough to orchestrate that sort of thing.
On June 18 2012 14:05 suki wrote:
Yeah. Welcome to bizarro bus world. You're here already you just don't know it yet
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It doesn't matter if you believe me now. When I flip, you can come back to these words and think carefully.
On June 19 2012 15:34 suki wrote:
I realize that I am bouncing around now. I think it has to do with just losing all faith in my own judgement, in addition to no one's really listening to me anyways. I still want to post my reads, still want to try to contribute my thoughts when people bring up cases. I still want to believe I can help push for a victory, instead of crawling into a hole and disappearing for the rest of the game because no one will believe me.
She insists on continuing to analyze even in the face of her own death. This gives me the feeling that she is townie and knows the game will go on after she dies.
on my alleged lack of scumhunting+ Show Spoiler +First of all, you said my defense of you (alan) was bothersome. I really don't see why this should be so. The bandwaggon on you was gathering steam, and you can clearly see it halt and turn around when I start defending you. Here is a similar post on my townie reads from XV: + Show Spoiler +On June 01 2012 05:25 sciberbia wrote:OK I've read through the thread, made some pretty extensive notes on everybody, and formed my own scumreads. I've got a lot to say after not posting for so long, so I'll spoiler everything. On Cattivik + Show Spoiler +
I'm providing my opinions of cattivik for two reasons:
1) He has been accused by enough people now (heist, golden, eishi_ki, suki, miltonkram) that he is in danger of being lynched today
2) heist explicitly asked for my opinion on cattivik
I think Cattivik is most likely townie
The fishiest thing about him seems to be his insistance that I am a 'confirmed townie'. Let's go through the scenarios here from your guys' persperctive. What seems most likely?
1) Cattivik is mafia. I am town. He goes way out of his way to defend me to gain an ally.
2) Cattivik is mafia. I am mafia. He defends me to the death.
3) Cattivik is town. I am town/mafia. He has a strong town-read on me and isn't afraid to share it.
Now I know for a fact that I am town, so I can rule out scenario 2. But I think even you guys should be able to conclude that scenario 3 is most likely. Both scenarios 1 & 2 seem like really bizarre, risky mafia play. Mafia can suck up to active townies and/or defend fellow mafia without being so blatantly obvious about it. Scenario 3 seems like typical brazen townie play. He is also very agressive and seems confident. Townie characteristics.
One last thing in his favor: Judging from his early posts I didn't get the feeling that he really understood my NL logic. If he were a mafia defending a townie, I think he'd at least want to have a solid grasp on what I was saying.
Now I'm not going to say he's a 'confirmed townie' but I think he is most likely town, and I would not vote for him given current evidence.
On a related topic, unless you think someone is in danger of being mislynched, please try to avoid talking about how townie you think they are. If we all agree player X is town, and we are right, we just gave mafia a really easy kill for the night.
One last thing. Did Cattivik really just change his name to Vivax? Seriously?
On Unforgiven + Show Spoiler +
Xalatos, s0sltice, golden, suki, and miltonkram(?) all find him suspicious. I'm not sold on the case against him. He has promised a defense and I don't want to do all his defending for him so I will try to be brief.
Firstly, I disagree with Xalatos and heist that he only made safe generalizations in his first few posts. I see where you are coming from because he hasn't actually made any reads yet, but he did say a couple of odd things that have earned him some flak, such as his suggestion not to use past games as a guide and his idea about a 'town leader'.
His triple post within the span of 14 minutes caught my attention. I think that scum generally take longer to construct posts for several reasons: being nervous about making a slip, making sure it sounds townie, running it by their scumbuddies, etc. Especially on his first posts of the game. Obvioulsy not solid evidence, but I think it's in his favor.
This is a newbie game. Just because you don't think he's helping town doesn't mean that he doesn't think he's helping town... Hope that made sense.
As long as he can convince me that HE thinks that he's helping town, I see no reason why he should be mafia. I'll be interested to hear his defense.
As of right now, I consider him more suspicious than Cattivik, but I don't see any really good evidence that he is mafia.
I was planning on posting my own scumreads in this post, but I've been staring at this thread for hours now and am gonna take a break. I think it's long enough already anyways. I'll make cases against my own scumreads within the next 8 hours. Note that this post was before I had actually accused anyone, much like this game. Now, I agree that this game's D1 was not my best D1. But it wasn't bad either. I correctly defended on alan, and put at least 1 mafia on my list of 3 most suspicious. I didn't make as direct an accusation this game because I wasn't as sure on any candidate as I was in previous games. HeavOnEarth didn't look especially scummy until after he started bandwaggoning with me on crossfire. roflwaffles didn't look scummy until the last couple posts of D1. And hell, we still don't know who the third mafia is, so I don't think you should hold it against me for not figuring it out in 24 hours. s0Lstice had the same opinion mid-D1, that nobody looked as scummy as in previous games. I agree that my actions aren't impossible for a scum sciberbia. But think about what you'd expect from a townie sciberbia and your expectations should line up pretty well with what I've done (seeing as I am town). As far as contributing to the deaths of the confirmed scum, I think I've done as much as anyone except s0Lstice and arguably alan.
your speculation+ Show Spoiler +
mod's completely randomize role assignments
I'm going to sleep soon. Night.
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I'm back. Unfortunately I'm picking up some slack at work tomorrow by working a 12 hour shift. I won't be around much after this post since I'm going to sleep after this and when I wake up I'm going straight there. I'll try and check the thread from work as we close in on lynch time, but I can't give any guarantees.
Unforgiven's case on me made me feel even better about lynching him. Let's look at his 1st point against me:
First, His good samaritan side + Show Spoiler + It looks like he's a non-native English speaker. I can understand him having difficulty with the language, let alone conveying a tone that pressures other players. If that's the case I would like to hear more of what he has to say. He's shown a willingness to think deeply and consider all possible lines of play that I think may be valuable to the town. By no means am I clearing him of suspicion, but there is a certain townie logic to some of his actions now that I think more about it. I think we have several better lynch targets anyway. I'll outline who I will support for lynch in my next post. , remember Xatalos-heist and me? dont go and look! just remember (sciberbia and cross i think?) He wanted to appear like a understandable guy who just wants to be friend whit alan, right? ;D
If I recall, during the exact game Unforgiven is referencing, I (as town) semi-defended Unforgiven based on his language issues. I also backed off of Vivax a little when I thought town was tunneling him too hard. I thought we were in danger of doing both to alan. When I backed off of alan I thought a lot of the case on him was based around us misunderstanding what he was trying to say. There is a reason Unforgiven said, "dont go and look! just remember." If you looked at the game Unforgiven is referencing, you'd notice that he's only referencing material that furthers his attack on me, and he is purposefully ignoring any information that counters the point he is trying to make. Did the scum attempt to buddy by defending players? Yes. Did townies back down from/defend other players too? Yes. This holds no water and looks like a scum scrambling for cases other than his own rather than a townie trying to be helpful.
2nd point: Unforgiven states that no one pressured me.
I can't help that. I can't control who pressures me and who doesn't. This is a nonpoint.
3rd point: I didn't pressure anyone.
Yes I did. Admittedly, I didn't put a ton of pressure on roflwaffles. He seemed like he was still following up on the pressure he put on alan at the time. Was his vote/unvote scummy? Yes. Should I have grilled him more for it? Yes indeed.
I also pressured suki. I also pressured HeavOnEarth. I'm not sure how Unforgiven reads my post attacking HeavOnEarth as anything other than pressure. I also heavily (and incorrectly) pressured trackd00r up until our D2 lynch and I'm pressuring Unforgiven now. Once again, Unforgiven is ignoring any evidence that doesn't fit in with his analysis of my play. This is because he's scum, and he can't find a good option for a mislynch so he has to invent one.
4th point:And after seeing Heaven is going to be lynched and its impossible to stop it he post this: + Show Spoiler +On June 15 2012 04:59 Miltonkram wrote:
Oops, slept in a bit later than I'd planned. s0Lstice, I'm inclined to agree with you. HeavOnEarth looks like the best lynch candidate.
Everybody, I'd suggest you take a look at him. His filter is not particularly long, but I think there is enough scummy behavior there to warrant a vote.
##Vote: HeavOnEarth On June 15 2012 05:48 Miltonkram wrote:
@ Heaven
There are a lot of people jumping on your case really quickly. Not gonna lie, it's making me a little nervous. Please post some sort of defense or at the very least what kind of reads you have on players whenever you have the time. i know you werent lying, you were really nervours he wasnt here to defend himself, right?
I was nervous at how easy the lynch was going. I thought we might be mislynching since no one was trying to derail it. My point? This is a really weak point. Unforgiven's arguments are full of these.
The rest of Unforgiven's case against me is plays that are plausible for both scum and town.
My goal with this post is to show that Unforgiven went about his case on me exactly the way a scum player would go about it. He needs to get a mislynch on someone, so why not me? I'm arguably the easiest player to pressure at this point. If that's not enough, within his case he misrepresents me and attempts to make my play look a lot scummier than it actually is. Let me repeat myself, this is exactly how a scum player would make their case when they are attempting to get a mislynch.
Good night all. Lynch this guy and let's end the game.
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No sciberbia, im just a Vanilla.
@Unforgiven_ve
You forgot to mention Golden. Your case @ Miltonkram also fits him. However, he acts the same in another game i checked, except for the hostile response part.
Yes, i was aware of this, Golden's filter i very similar to miltons but (to me at least) he really put some pressure on Heaven, read his case against him.
Now, please, if i get lynched and alan gets killed at night, kill sciberbia then milton in that order + Show Spoiler +The agressiveness coming from sciberbia and his "stubbornness" SCREAMS desperate mafia, i bet you he will go for suki then, now that suki's case is fogotten it will be his card up his slevee, Because its obvious a sciberbia lynch today its impossible
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ebwop: Oh, and a classic mafia defense would be "DUDE YOU POINTS ARE SO WEAK AND INVALID!, you so mafia!" . So, my, now closed reads are,
Milton and sciberbia...if town wants to win kill those two.
i'd bet my account naming rights on this, any takers?
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edbwop: if i get killed today switch that order
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@Unforgiven_ve
There is no use denying blues anymore if you are a blue. We are set to lynch you. Please out with your actions before it's too late, it will help town a lot.
+ Show Spoiler +It's saddening thinking this game just turned from "overwhelming town victory" to a "close town victory", or could even possibly "epic mafia comeback".
Shesh. I would like a confirmation of scum reads from everyone, given that Unforgiven flips green.
@sciberbia
Him killing s0Lstice and changing lynch from suki to Unforgiven seems logical. Sciberbia has no scum slips, but it would be expected to avoid them judging on his accurate scum reads and strong analysis on his previous games. If he is scum, he probably made a list for "what to never ever post"
@Golden
Given that he did not get mod killed (He posted nothing today, and I hope he really got modkill since it is spoiling the game for town given he is town), he would be my second FoS. However, given his history (I did not check, I based it on mod's pregame comment on him), this is why he get mod killed.
@Suki
Suki's defense is really strong, and sciberbia mentioned it seems like suki is acting like the game will go on after she's dead. I beg to defer. It is easier to fake something like this especially when you're aware of it. + Show Spoiler +. Every single time I read suki, I read differently. I feel like she contributed by encouraging people to post, and I still see no link between her and rolf in the early game, but her random lynch target in Day 1 really throws me off.
@Austin's dead
I would say mafia was searching for blue. Rolfwaffle was practically dead and the best scums could've hoped for is to kill the vig/or there is no vig. This will give them one extra day. I can totally see sciberbia wanting to bait and see if there are any vigilante slip by outing it. This is far sketched, but I won't be surprised if that is the case when he flip scum. Austin aren't the most active poster, giving him some "blue points".
@s0Lstice's dead
I think this is more of a "kill strong trusted analytic townie". This is a good scum move. I sincerely thinks this is better than "kill the confirmed vigilante that can't write english well and occasionally change his mind/counter argue himself."
I don't want to out my "next expected victim if Unforgiven_ve flip town". I don't know how good my analysis is, but in case they are good, I don't want scums to get advantage from it.
Please think who is scummiest. Suki, if you are town, do the town a favor and regain your confidence. Don't worry about pushing the wrong lynch. Everyone does that. When we lose we will just laugh about it and learn. Don't be afraid to make mistakes. We need your help. If suki flip scum I can see how every is going to LOL at me.
may I have a vote count? What will happen if Gold fails to post and vote?
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My thoughts on unforgiven:
To everyone, re-read s0lstice's case on MouldyJeb and unforgiven:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15139936
s0lstice's case was based not just on unforgiven's filter and playstyle, but also MouldyJeb's filter and playstyle. Both players made weak reads. MouldyJeb made a crap case against rofl. Unforgiven labels austin as possibly scum just before austin gets NK'd.
In addition:
Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 09:32 HeavOnEarth wrote:
was sort of waiting for MJ to post something after he was like hurr durr ima post soon. i took a look at his previous game though and his posts seem consistent from when he was townie. hes really not helping at all, and definitely still looks scum, but it feels like poor town play rather than mafia.
Tell me this doesn't sound like newb scum talking about a teammate.
I agree with s0lstice that this sort of soft defence is extremely fishy.
.
In response to unforgiven's self defence, one thing stands out to me:
its so easy to change your style of play its makes it a waste of time (at least for me) ...
I don't buy this statement. I had a quick glance through unforgiven's first game as mafia, and between his playstyle as mafia and playstyle as town, he is playing a style much more similar to the former. He lurks a lot in the first game, and he gives excuses why he's busy. This was consistent with his playstyle up until he started getting under heavy pressure.
Note too that the way that we are criticizing his play is not purely a stylistic choice, it's also based on his personality. He's being too helpful as opposed to harshly criticizing bad play and bad reads. It just feels off.
I see both scum and town motivation for the way unforgiven has been acting after s0stice's death, but the fact of the matter is that the gameplay before that by BOTH players is suspicious.
I like the case against unforgiven.
Analysis on other players will have to wait until later. Gotta go to work.
@alan
My targets on day 1 weren't random. I tunnelled you and forced you to contribute and I agreed upon HeavOn after reviewing the case against him. You could view it as 'bandwagoning' but the reasons are very clear and not random at all.
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Day 3 votecount
Unforgiven_ve (4)
suki
sciberbia
alan133
Miltonkram
Miltonkram (1)
Unforgiven_ve
With 7 alive it takes a majority of 4 to lynch.
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@alan
We really do not want golden to be modkilled if he is town. That would likely put us in LYLO if we are wrong about unforgiven. We'd really need him around so we get two more lynches.
@golden
Please vote.
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may I have a vote count? What will happen if Gold fails to post and vote?
I would assume that golden and crossfire would be modkilled since they didnt post at all this cycle thus far, but prplhz may decide to warn them instead.
Votecount is above
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@suki
I was talking about your first case against trackd00r
@sciberbia
Indeed, sharp as always.
@golden
please vote
@crossfire
please vote
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On June 20 2012 08:18 Unforgiven_ve wrote:oh, and Crossfire, your analisus about sciberbia was very good, i was inclining to him being the last scum, till i realized milton was still alive for no apparent reason .
On June 19 2012 05:23 Crossfire99 wrote:I'm glad that someone found my case to not be convincing (I was hoping it was someone I had a less solid read on than you solstice ). I only decided to look into sciberbia once i saw in his filter him trying to get a second vigi to claim and his question early this night. As I wrote the whole thing up, I realized that he is playing very townie and there is no way he is scum, but I decided to post my case anyway to get some reactions. Since I'm not not going to be around close to the deadline, I have to post this now which is unfortunate because I was hoping more people would have to respond to it, but oh well.
You think my case on sciberbia is good??? I said after I posted it that I thought it wasn't good...
##Vote Unforgiven_ve
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Oh, also if unforgiven flips green, I'm going to guess that either milton or golden are mafia, but i have both of them as pretty much town right now...unforgiven better flip red. lol
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On June 21 2012 01:49 Crossfire99 wrote:
Oh, also if unforgiven flips green, I'm going to guess that either milton or golden are mafia, but i have both of them as pretty much town right now...unforgiven better flip red. lol
Yes, because BEFORE reading your case he was my main suspect, you backed from your case pretty easily, you are falling for his good redaction ans posting skills. After readin some more, Milton jumped to be my main suspect...I confess my faith was on you cross =( ... and i even thought suki would have some brain and see beyond the lines and lame excuses from milton and sciberbia, alan is just a sheep now, got a lucky shot. Golden, well...he is afk and its not helpful, but he is town.
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dammint, i was writing a post and the f** power went out for 1 second and i lost it, let me summarize
Now, when i die, We will need golden to afford a mislynch:
me dead + NK+ Show Spoiler +(most probanly alan but it can change after mafia read this and choose a random target hoping to get a suki misslynch tomorrow)
1mislynch tomorrow + NK = 1town and1 mafia gg
I confess i had some faith on you cross ... suki just cant see beyond the lines and is in love whit cute posts and lame analysis... and alan is just a sheep, he just got lucky whit that shot + Show Spoiler +is this the kind of post you were expecting siberbia?
My last attempt will be this, going against my own belives and seeing you are blindly reading and using past games, i will show you what a mafia posted in NMM XV
On May 31 2012 17:31 Xatalos wrote:
blah -
As things stand, I'm ready to go for a Unforgiven_ve lynch. However, I want to see your response first, Unforgiven_ve. You better impress with your next post or your filter looks really bad already.
On May 31 2012 23:43 Xatalos wrote:
blah
Finally you posted something, but it's not what I was hoping for from a town Unforgiven_ve. More like what I expected from a Mafia Unforgiven_ve.
This response convinced me. It's time to get the ball rolling.
AHEM
On June 20 2012 11:41 sciberbia wrote:
Unforgiven's response didn't do anything for me. I'm not surprised, because my primary points of accusation are points that you cannot easily explain away. He has a lot of text, but doesn't say many things of substance. To summarize his post:
On June 20 2012 14:48 sciberbia wrote:
I was really unimpressed by Unforgiven's case on miltonkram. Here are my thoughts:
bleh-
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lol, power went out again 5 seconds after i clicked post!!!
and i see i posted the same thing in the beggining , so you can be sure
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I really don't like how unforgiven posted a big case on milton, but now seems convinced that sciberbia is the most likely scum simply because s0lstice analysed unforgiven's defence post.
I'm a bit disappointed unforgiven. I was almost convinced that you were town, but your tunnelling of sciberbia is weak and not conducive to the town. Your attempts to be abrasive seem hollow and made as a direct response to our accusations.
Four hours remain before the lynch. We have four votes on unforgiven so as long as no one moves their vote we will avoid a NL. Golden and Crossfire are missing, which is extremely disappointing.
I have a case for the next day if unforgiven bleeds green. I'd love to post it soon or even have posted it early this morning but work has kept me occupied all day. I'll post it as soon as I can but I think I have a pretty good case, so I don't want to rush it.
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Milton is still my main read i just dont get the nonsense agression im getting from solstice, he changed from a openminded analyzer to a + Show Spoiler + fixed aggressor who doesnt listen to reasons. The same way your partner did it last game
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@suki
FYI, crossfire has voted on unforgiven
@suki, crossfire
Are you guys talking about me? Why does everyone keep calling me s0Lstice?
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On June 21 2012 05:54 sciberbia wrote:
@suki, crossfire
Are you guys talking about me? Why does everyone keep calling me s0Lstice?
I don't think I've been talking about you except for my big post on you during the night phase. I think I've correctly referred to you when I meant you, but I'm not sure what post of mine you're referencing.
Also, fyi everybody, I'm not going to be around during the lynch and the whole night phase following. I should be back soon after the beginning of the coming day (around 30 hours after the time of this post) assuming we don't win with this lynch and assuming I'm still alive after the night should this lynch not seal the deal.
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Votecount
Unforgiven_ve:
suki
sciberbia
alan133
Miltonkram
Crossfire99
Miltonkram:
Unforgiven_ve
Not voting:
O.Golden_ne
It's like 2 hours 40 mins until deadline.
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On June 21 2012 06:08 Crossfire99 wrote:
I don't think I've been talking about you except for my big post on you during the night phase. I think I've correctly referred to you when I meant you, but I'm not sure what post of mine you're referencing.
Sorry I meant suki and unforgiven. Wasn't directed at you.
I really hope this game's over in an hour x_x I feel like tomorrow's gonna get really ugly if unforgiven flips green, especially if golden gets modkilled
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Haha sciberbia, I didn't even realize I called you s0lstice.
It's because both of your names start with S and both of you are strong townies. So mentally you're in the same category.
Anyways I'm back from work. I'll start writing up my analysis now in case unforgiven is townie.
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dammit unforgiven I hate you! You better be mafia >_<
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Suk, “having a case in case YOUR SURE MAFIA READ“ flips read is the lammest
Thing to do. You are sure of your vote or either you are not, saying that just shows you are weak
Minded and just jumped in the easiest bandwagon, what about making some analysis before I'm dead?
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Suk, “having a case in case YOUR SURE MAFIA READ“ flips green is the lammest
Thing to do. You are sure of your vote or either you are not, saying that just shows you are weak
Minded and just jumped in the easiest bandwagon, what about making some analysis before I'm dead?
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
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Final votecount
Unforgiven_ve:
suki
sciberbia
alan133
Miltonkram
Crossfire99
O.Golden_ne
Miltonkram:
Unforgiven_ve
Unforgiven_ve is lynched.
O.Golden_ne gets a warning for not doing anything on day3.
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/QjeRG.jpg) The angry mob finally got their hands on Unforgiven_ve.
Unforgiven_ve the Vanilla Townie was hung.
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This stupid phone send the second to last post whit me clicking post.
Sciberbia, you so mafia its just ridiculous. Tell me, who will be your next lynch target after I die??
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**whitout clicing**
Lol, gg newbs. REMEMBER THE MAINE!
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**whitout clicing**
Lol, gg newbs. REMEMBER THE MAINE!
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This sucks so bad. We had better win tomorrow to make up for this. I'm going to start staring at filters. gg unforgiven, but I'm not mafia. Go read the obs QT.
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@unforgiven
I apologize. I had a feeling in my gut that you were town after you started posting, but there was still that possibility in the back of my mind. I trusted in s0lstice's read, and I wanted to believe that the mod behaviour was a slip up.
Now that unforgiven has flipped town, there is one person that stands out to me from everyone else as suspicious.
That player is Miltonkram.
To start, I want to rehash sciberbia's case on Miltonkram.
+ Show Spoiler +
1. He states suspicions on roflwaffle, but backs off quickly so that rofl isn't really in danger from Milton's actions.
2. He throws a bunch of suspicions on people who are town, which "isn't damning but isn't exactly comforting either."
3. He contributes to lynch HeavOnEarth, by putting HeavOnEarth into his "top 3" after only sciberbia and s0lstice have accused him. To s0lstice, a miltonkram bus of HeavOnEarth seems by far the most likely out of all possible buses.
4. Miltonkram was gone almost the entire night of night 1, which fits the theory about scum not submitting their NK until last minute.
He also says that the NK doesn't make a lot of sense no matter who ordered it. More on that later.
He finally concludes the Milton is probably town, but possibly could be scum.
Unfortunately, s0lstice didn't give detailed thoughts on Miltonkram before he died, but he did leave this one gem:
Just something to consider...
If Milton is scum, the second bus was easy as hell. By the time he chimed in, rofl's death was essentially a foregone conclusion.
Then really, the only one he bussed was heavonearth. Bussing one of your teammates when an influential townie is calling for their death is a logical play.
After these posts, I put in my two cents (which I will simply re-include as part of this analysis). Alan posts his case on Golden, and Crossfire posts his case on sciberbia. No one comments on Miltonkram and Miltonkram didn't post any defence. I would have liked to see his defence, but sciberbia said 'you don't have to post a defence', so the lack of defence isn't suspicious in itself.
s0lstice then posts his case on unforgiven which is the main topic for the rest of the night and day.
No one even talked about Miltonkram until unforgiven brought him up in his one big post. His points were as follows:
1. He tries to buddy up with alan
2. He's never been pressured. He's never really pressured anyone. (related to sciberbia's point #1 and #2 above)
3. He was nervous prior to HeavOn's lynch. More on this later
4. He tries to gain townie credit when rofl starts coming under fire. (see s0lstice's comment on bus timing above)
Miltonkram posts a reasonable defence.
Now that I've gone through the previous cases against Miltonkram, let me begin my case.
My Case Against Miltonkram
I will begin by analyzing the night kills.
+ Show Spoiler +
I have a theory that both night kill targets were made with the same motivation - To point town towards a lynch target for the next day.
Why Austin?? Austin pushed his case against Crossfire when everyone jumped on HeavOnEarth. s0lstice's dying words were against unforgiven.
We didn't listen to the first "suggestion" because the case against rofl was so strong. Had rofl not been immediately strung up on the gallows, we may have really gone after Crossfire.
We did listen to the second suggestion, and killed the NK target's biggest suspect. The first kill could also have had the secondary purpose of finding a blue. The second kill's secondary purpose was targetting a strong townie.
Why s0lstice and not sciberbia? Because s0lstice was wrong, both about unforgiven and about me (who he'd probably go after, after unforgiven died). Sciberbia only had his finger pointed at me.
In short, it makes sense for Milton to make this kind of play. I feel it explains a scum Milton's thought process, something which has confused us for the whole time.
-----
The vote timings
Here is what I said previously:
sciberbia on Milton's bussing of HeavOnEarth: Milton only puts down his suspicions after both s0lstice and sciberbia have labelled HeavOnEarth as suspicious. And he does it as a 1 of 3 list.
s0lstice on Milton: "If Milton is scum, the second bus was easy as hell. By the time he chimed in, rofl's death was essentially a foregone conclusion"
I think the vote timings for scum Milton make perfect sense, and don't involve an insta-bus (of roflwaffles) out of nowhere like a scum sciberbia case does.
Milton voted trackdoor as his #1 scum read after I made my big post against trackd00r. His main reasons being the voteswitch, and his weak pressure on other players.
Right after he posts:
EBWOP: This isn't a strong point, so I'm not hinging my opinions on it.
.
Milton then remained quiet until the case on unforgiven got attention. He is sure that unforgiven is scum now, and his main reasons are HeavOnEarth's awkward bus of MJ and unforgiven claiming VT.
Notice that in the period between austin/rofl getting lynched until now, Milton has not pressured anyone. He has only chimed when there's a strong case against someone, writes up some support info, and then votes for the target.
In other words, Milton is taking an easy bandwagon ride on every lynch.
-----
My next point, a strange comment in his back and forth with roflwaffles:
+ Show Spoiler +Miltonkram: roflwaffles55 I'm suspicious of this guy based on two of his posts. First one is a response to s0Lstice/sciberbia: Show nested quote +
Sure!
When it comes to lynching lurkers I would agree in that it shouldn't be the focus, and would prefer to lynch someone acting scummy day 1.
As to NL, I am firmly against it and if we can't get a clear majority on scummy-acting folks then we should at least lynch a lurker, especially on D1 and 2.
Notice the eager to please tone of his post. I'm looking at it as a possible scumslip. His 2nd suspicious post: Show nested quote +
I agree that I may have been a bit too aggressive right off the bat, but I implore you to look at my arguments and his, and take more from it then just an overzealous attempt on my part.
##unvote alan133
There you go, I'm still suspicious, but I may have underestimated the significance of a vote.
Notice how self-conscious he is in this post, especially in that last line. I realize that several players weren't interested in his case, but there is absolutely no harm in keeping pressure on a player until they give you a satisfactory defense. Essentially he backs down from his pressure based on a tiny reprimand from Crossfire. It seems like he's trying to keep himself out of the spotlight. roflwaffle: You've defeated yourself in your own argument against me, with the explanation as to why I backed down on alan133. I backed down because I hadn't received any support towards my case. You also defeated yourself by saying that I'm trying to keep myself out of the spotlight, if I wanted that, I wouldn't have been the third person to post a case, let alone one I knew would net me a bunch of flak.
I made the case to put pressure on someone that was lacking any real opinion, whether because he felt that there wasn't enough data to form one, or because he was hiding from the spotlight himself.
The evidence or suspicions that you have brought up can be answered so easily I'm not sure why you didn't come up with them yourself.
Miltonkram:
@ roflwaffles
Ok, I see what you're saying. I thought you were completely backing off of alan even though you've made a decent case against him. I still don't like the fact that you took your vote off of him based on a wrist-slap from Crossfire, but I guess I misunderstood your intent. Since you're still pursuing your case on alan the unvote seems less scummy.
As far as alan133 is concerned I think you may have something. He's put very little pressure on anyone. When he does pressure he seems wishy-washy as hell.
Miltonkram had a little back and forth between himself and roflwaffle. Notice how easily roflwaffle deflects Milton's case against him, as if the arguments Milton made were meant to be deflected. Now notice how milton just gives him the green light.
However... Milton says, "I thought you were completely backing off of alan... but I guess I misunderstood your intent. Since you're still pursuing your case on alan the unvote seems less scummy."
I don't see how Milton could have taken that away from rofl's post. Rofl straight up said he backed down. There was no mention of still pursuing his case against roflwaffle. Milton seems to be justifying rofl's actions for him, while saying that rofl seems less scummy.
In the same post, he renews rofl's case against alan. "As far as alan133 concerned I think you may have something." Soft support of his teammate?
----
Next, Milton making observations on scum actions and motivations that actually perfectly fit the way he's been playing:
if suki and roflwaffles were both scum they were essentially going all in on bussing HeavOnEarth blowing any chance that town mislynches D1. Blowing such a chance seems like a pretty gutsy play so maybe she learned well from Xatalos, but I'm not entirely convinced.
This is a possible slip. It describes his behaviour perfectly. He also references Xatalos' play from XV, meaning he's perfectly aware that this was a valid strategy to do this game.
Maybe this is too WIFOMy, but I feel like the safe play for scum would have been to have one player voting HeavOnEarth in order to gain some of the town cred in case he got lynched and one player voting someone else in order to keep a little momentum towards a possible mislynch.
sciberbia pointed this out, but it happens in the same post as the quote above. It describes his play perfectly and could be another slip.
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His nervousness pre-lynch of HeavOn:
@ Heaven
There are a lot of people jumping on your case really quickly. Not gonna lie, it's making me a little nervous. Please post some sort of defense or at the very least what kind of reads you have on players whenever you have the time.
This quote reminds me a LOT of a quote by Xatalos in Mafia XV:
Suki, where are you when you need to defend yourself? The bandwagon on you is gathering steam, but you're nowhere to be seen. And I don't even think you're Mafia. Do a favor for everyone and show up right now.
This was what Xatalos posted in the game when there was a bandwagon growing on me while I was away. Basically, it's a last-ditch effort for mafia to tell their teammate to post, JUST IN CASE they weren't checking the mafia QT but were checking the main thread.
When Milton posted this, it stuck out to me as really odd. Now I think this is a pure scum slip, disguised to be a 'helpful townie' post. There is definite mafia motivation for this post, but not really any townie motivation.
Now contrast this with his certainty of trackd00r and unforgiven being scum. There has been no hesitation in his reads, no questioning of who could possibly be mafia. The person on the chopping block has been his main read every time.
IN SUMMARY
Motivation for both night kills can be found for a scum Miltonkram
Milton's bussing of his two teammates can be explained by reasonable mafia play that doesn't involve extreme early actions.
Milton's strange interpretation/soft defense of rofl's words
Milton's lack of commentary on any player except those with strong cases against them.
Milton's nervousness pre-lynch of HeavOnEarth...
... Contrasted with Milton's confidence in finding the last scum each lynch, when we're approaching a situation where everyone looks townie.
This is my case against Miltonkram. Come daytime I will vote for him. I can't see sciberbia or crossfire as scum. I can't see HeavOnEarth pressuring a scum Golden the way he did. Milton is now the last and only suspect in my mind.
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Sorry I rushed out for a meeting as soon as I woke up and is stuck in a data center for the rest of my morning (and will be for the rest of my day).
gg Unforgiven_ve. I don't blame you since you're busy but only if you were more active.. Sigh.
+ Show Spoiler +I let out my frustration on sciberbia and how the town worships him as if he is God. My message was s0Lstice is a 100% confirmed townie, sciberbia is not. Trackd00r is an easy lynch. Unforgiven_ve is an easy mislynch, and I am not gonna drop my speculation about how scum killed s0lstice just to push this mislynch, although there are 10,000 other reasons for scums to kill him.
I am going to look for filter one by one when I got back from work. For now, I don't like how sciberbia jumped from suki to Unforgiven_ve without reconsidering s0Lstice's case.
I believe no matter how good a scum is, there must be a leak somewhere, I just had to find it. Screw circumstantial talks, screw speculations. I am sorry but I am truly frustrated at the current situation.
Laters.
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@Crossfire, Golden
Please help me out by posting more reads. What is your stance on Suki's case on Miltonkram?
@Suki
I will analyse Miltonkram later, I just came back and I need to go out for something again. Please look more closely at sciberbia since you have made up your mind about Miltonkram. What if Miltonkram flip green?
@Miltonkram
Less time defending, more time analyzing. Who is your next FoS?
@Sciberbia
Everyone put you on the townie read. Everyone. Even if I am convinced that you are scum I believe it is hard to push a lynch to you. I am just gonna say this: I hope my brain is all fucked up and kept going after you, everyone is right and I am wrong. If I die tonight I don't see Sciberbia is ever getting lynched, on the other hand, I would think this is a wifom. I rather the wifom situation since I will still be able to do reads and influence other players. I am going to read through everyone else's filter, then yours.
@Blue Action
-Cops: I hate to say, but I should have recommended you to investigate lurkers. However, I'd like you to investigate Miltonkram.
-Medic: Do not heal me nor Sciberbia
-Jailkeeper: I would like you to jail Sciberbia. If there is no kill, then its done. If anyone suggested scums did not kill because of my suggestion: No.
-Vig/Me: Only if I have another bullet
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Sorry guys I fell asleep early last night and I won't have a lot of time to post during night phase. I'll be turning my attention to the game at 6:30 EST today.
@alan
When you read through my filter, please try to see it from a townie perspective. I understand you're suspicious of me, but just try to keep an open mind. I was dead wrong on unforgiven, but so were we all, and other than that I think I've been playing a pretty decent townie game, so just try to look for townie motivation and you'll find it. It's disconcerting to know that our confirmed townie's top suspect is another townie.
I'll be doing some serious thinking and posting 6 to 12 hours from now. Right now, I'm thinking it has to be between suki and miltonkram, and miltonkram feels more townie overall.
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@alan
I've been very busy so I haven't had a chance to look closely at sciberbia's filter, but I have two reasons why he can't be mafia. First, it doesn't make sense for him to hard bus roflwaffle as soon as HeavOnEarth got lynched, and he's played a solid town game with a lot of strong analysis that would be hard to keep up as a mafia. Second, in my gut I feel he genuinely started feeling bad after I posted my defence and subsequent requests to keep analysing despite being convinced I was mafia. I really think a mafia sciberbia wouldn't be so affected.
@sciberbia
Please read my case on miltonkram. You say Milton 'feels townie', despite not contributing to town since rofl's death. The only point in the game where he really pressured others was prior to trackd00r's death, and it was only weak pressure at that. He hasn't shared his thoughts on you or me or golden or crossfire for a very long time.
He's managed to stay out of the spotlight for the entire game with a townie read on him. Meanwhile I have been in the spotlight the whole game and it seems people's opinions on my scumminess go back and forth. All of the evidence against me has been circumstantial - the targets I really went down hard on have turned out to be blue, and I wasn't one of the first to vote for mafia when they became town targets ... but my play has always clearly had town motivations and methodologies.
When you contrast this with Milton, all of his suspicious targets aside from HeavOnEarth have been town or pretty much confirmed town, and he stopped contributing once both of the scum died. He only jumped in to justify his vote for the player with a strong case on them, or to defend himself. I've pointed out multiple posts that can easily be seen as scum slips. Both you and s0lstice have commented that if Milton was scum, both busses of his teammates wouldn't have been too outrageous.
You commented earlier that me NK'ing austin wouldn't make any sense. Well, in my case I explained how a NK of austin would make sense for Milton. To add to that analysis, Milton was under absolutely zero pressure on the first day. It makes sense to aim for a possible blue rather than a strong townie, since he wasn't going to be under scrutiny any time soon.
Please have another look at my case and at Milton's filter. Overall, it's much easier to justify Milton's actions, playstyles and slips as coming from scum motivations. This is also a big reason why I don't suspect sciberbia. His play would have to be way too crafty and risky if he was scum. Also keep in mind that unforgiven was already being heavily pushed by me and milton. If sciberbia were scum he could have easily just let me push the lynch and then use that as a reason to hang me up to dry the next day. Unforgiven was suspicious of the hard tunnelling but I don't see it as suspicious at all.
Another point as I take a quick peek at sciberbia's filter. When we were lynching trackd00r, sciberbia was not convinced that he was scum. After he voted for trackd00r he said 'trackd00r IF YOU ARE A BLUE CLAIM NOW'. This is definitely not scum-motivated behaviour.
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Ok I'm back earlier than I thought I would be. I don't have much time before the night post, so I'll just say a few things.
@alan
Sciberbia can't be mafia. See my giant case on him the last night and solstice's response to it as well as sciberbia's response to it. After spending I don't know how long on it, and coming in to the argument with the assumption that he was mafia and trying to show it, I discovered after reading through his filter and the thread that he can't be mafia.
As for Milton:
With my quick glance of your case suki, I think there are some good points there. I am going to have to investigate for myself, though. Last night, when I posted my thoughts I came at everything using the first lynch as a guide, and thought that the only two people who needed to be looked into more because they didn't really contribute to the lynch (or hadn't flipped yet or weren't pushed by mafia as alternative lynches) were milton and sciberbia. The only reason I didn't look more into milton was because I completely forgot about MJ/unforgiven because MJ didn't vote day 1 and wasn't considered in my day 1 lynch analysis, and once people started looking into him I started focusing on that to the detriment of other cases.
Basically what I'm saying is we should all look into milton if we survive the night.
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Thought I might as well make a small post in the unlikely event that I get NK'd.
I've been reading suki's filter for the last half hour or so. I want to thinks she is mafia, but so much of it, especially since D1, just reads so townie to me. I'm still not decided on her.
Miltonkram feels townie, but I'll be spending more time in his filter later.
Is there a chance the last mafia is golden? Besides the fact that HeavOnEarth attacked him D1, golden's filter also reads townie to me. Too reckless and angry to be mafia.
This is getting really frustrating. How can we figure out the first two scum on D1 and still not have a great read on the third? I'm hoping blues can bail us out after the daypost. If not, I'll be spending several hours reading filters tonight and hopefully end up with a good feeling about someone.
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Crap, fell asleep and did hope i got this up before the day 3 post.
@scberbia
Sorry for the hard tunnel (if this is considered one). For the exact reason you mentioned I can't read anyone as scum. I want to think that you are scum because I believe he is good enough to hide this well.
@Blues
Jail keeper-please out the guys you kept. They are innocent
Cop-I hope you can save us from day 3. Even you didnt nail scum you should have some few innos
@Golden
He turned out just to vote
He did not defend himself
his hostile reply to my case
i don't know. I hate to know we spent 3 days and overlook one scum like this. He did not bother to defend himself everytime I mentioned him. I cleared him by my self arguing.
Please look at him more closely.
Sorry for the late late post,
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@zelblade, prplhz
you there? daypost is coming right?
Does anybody else sometimes think that hosts intentionally delay day/night posts and take a cut of the additional advertising revenue? Must've hit F5 at least 100 times by now...
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@gold
-Feel anxious even when town is in a good lead.
If we can overlook MJ for bandwagonning, why not Gold.
-Gold, since you seems disinterested, do you want to concede as scum?
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I really hate these popcorn things :p They always make me think something good's gonna happen. Like unforgiven is mafia or cop just got a red check. Stop getting my hopes up!
who else is spamming F5 lol? Over 300 more thread views since I started watching it..
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Day 4
Chaos.
That was the only word possible to describe the situation.
Hopes raised, hopes dashed.
The puppetmaster was on a rampage.
How many had been claimed? Austin, s0lstice, trackd00r... And the many villagers torn apart by the doubts. By the fear.
And I am the last shield for the people... Am i not?
Wielding my precious bow in hand, I creeped through the forest, making my way stealthily to my targert.
I was certain.
He was missing he night before.
The night where he murdered solstice.
In time I reached the place. A cottage in the middle of the forest. Where he lived. He who had become elder through his wisdom and his kindness.
Why did he turn?
Sneaking around, I surveyed the place. Ensuring that not a single soul was around, I quietly pushed open the door, stepping into the small little cottage.
And there he was. Lying still on his bed. A peaceful look on his face.
Shock and anger flooded through me. The village was in chaos, and here he was, mastermind of the situation, sleeping peacefully whilst he rest of us suffered.
My arrows were not needed this time. Drawing out my hunters dagger, I stepped forward, bringing it down onto the body.
Or what I thought was a body.
"Sorcery has it's perks I must say. Welcome to my humble cottage.... Alan."
"You..!"
"As was expected of the hunter. You killed roflwaffles didn't you?"
"Yes. And it is your turn."
In a flash, my bow was nocked, aimed at the traitor's head.
But than I froze.
A piercing laugh broke the cold air.
"What can a mere hunter do to a sorcerer like me? Nothing. Absolutely nothing."
He walked up to me. Running his fingers over my skin.
They were cold. Void of any life.
"For years I have suffered. I did all i could to help the villagers, but what did the order do? They flat out rejected my brilliant plans. Crazy, unworkable, or so they say. Bullshit! My genius has been wasted on these fools."
And he took the bow, stepped away. And turned around. Crazed grin on his face.
"Goodbye, my friend."
And the arrow flew through the air once more.
alan133 the 1 shot vigilante has been killed.
sorry I overslept.
Day ends in 48 hours.
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gg alan133
hmm I'm actually kinda surprised by the NK.
Eveyone check your PMs
And if cop has a guilty, please put us out of our misery.
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Oh and I also wanted to say this. Even if you're not a cop or don't have a guilty, today is a good day to claim. It's a lot harder to believe you if you claim in a 3-person LYLO.
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The NK makes sense.
As we get closer to a 3 person LYLO situation, it's in the best interest of the mafia to have as few confirmed townies as possible. It's also in the interest of mafia to keep players who have had suspicions laid on them, so that those suspicions may rise again come the end of the game.
Alan was confirmed town, but his analysis is definitely not as strong as sciberbia. Killing alan leaves sciberbia as the only really strong townie left in the game. If sciberbia had been NK'd, Alan would still have the benefit of being a confirmed townie to help guide town. But since sciberbia has had suspicions raised on him, it may be part of a mind game to instil doubt into town if it reaches the final stages of the game.
For now I think the move is the obvious mafia move, and it shouldn't be looked into too deeply. This NK may become important if the game lasts into the next night, which I really really hope it doesn't.
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I also strongly believe that there are no more blues.
There has been no sign of blue behaviour for the whole game since Alan's shot. If we had a cop, we most certainly would have one player drilling another one hard even if no one claimed. If we had a doctor, I feel they would have been able to save one of s0lstice or alan. If we had a jailkeeper, the NK would have been blocked by now, or we would have seen one player vehemently defending the more suspicious players.
Golden's lurking is unfortunate. I can take a closer look at his filter later but I would really really hate to policy lynch at this stage of the game. If Golden really is mafia then it was a really great or really lucky play by mafia to have HeavOnEarth target him so early. I feel his irritation is sincere. Imagine this, he joins a mafia game for some masochistic reason fun but his life is extremely busy. Still, he puts in an hour here and there when he can to help out, but then someone starts drilling him for not contributing. It makes sense to be pissed, right? He doesn't have to play, he tried to contribute and he gets criticized for it.
Perhaps Golden's simple #vote on unforgiven is just because he is sick of this game and doesn't want to put any more time into it, but he at the very least feels obligated to still keep up the bare bare minimum. I feel that HeavOnEarth's super early game actions are enough to justify putting him as less scummy than Milton though.
sciberbia is as town as someone can get I think. I've posted my reads already.
And Crossfire has two big things going for him in my mind (aside from all the other points put forth by other players). The first is his case against sciberbia. No scum is going to attack the strongest townie in the game. They are just gonna shoot him at night. If a scum is gonna be aggressive at all he's gonna target the easy targets. Second, I really really have faith in my meta-game read on him. His helpful tone in the beginning is consistent with his helpful tone in the mafia QT in his past game. This is not something you fake as mafia, this is part of one's personality. He genuinely wants to help town and the helpful tone bubbles out. If he were mafia, that desire to help would not be so genuine.
That leaves Miltonkram, who I analysed in detail. And golden, who is lurking, whose filter I will analyse when I get time.
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@suki
I was expecting crossfire to be NK'd. He is almost as confirmed town as alan, possibly still a blue, and had a correct town read on me as opposed to alan. But yea I don't think the NK of alan is that telling. I'm still mulling it over.
Anyway, I got a little distracted by the NBA finals. Back to reading filters and old mafia QTs of suki and miltonkram now.
@miltonkram
We really need you to start posting. I looked through your filter and you literally haven't posted reads on any of the remaining players in like 6 days.
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So I went through Golden's filter and I think he is just a frustrated townie. Look at these posts from the beginning of the game.
On June 14 2012 08:39 O.Golden_ne wrote:
Hey guys
getting stuck into reading now, expect incoming analysis from myself.
currently at work but expect some @lunch
golden
On June 14 2012 13:25 O.Golden_ne wrote:
I'm still working on my response; hold your horses i have a busy life!
quickly now though, to me it was obvious that miltonkrams vote was a friendly gesture. obviously not to be taken seriously.
@HeavOnEarth. obviously i havent been super active, but i dont feel like my first post was nearly as scummy as its been made out to be. You yourself havent been the most active!
Golden
On June 14 2012 17:36 O.Golden_ne wrote:
Okay. Love it or hate it i haven't been too present thus fair. That being said i'm about to drop some knowledge on everyone. I'm just gonna post this little post structure so you know im working on it as we speak.
Summary of D1 to date (this is more for my benefit because i've been away and i find it a good method of developing insight into a situation.
Response regarding Alan, HeavonEarth and Suki situations (at a glance these names seem to be trending highly)
My reads and analysis
Any sexy tidbits and notable nuggets
this is going to be my most active time over the next few hours as i've got the night off and i'm in bed on my laptop!
see you on the otherside of a Wall of Text.
Now look at his most recent posts.
On June 16 2012 21:31 O.Golden_ne wrote:
Lol last time i ever stick my neck out for someone i think is town, what a retard alan. your argument that i contradict myself is invalid. I don't ever contradict myself, i purely state that no-one is ever confirmed town until they flip after saying that i think you are safe. read it again bro.
On June 16 2012 21:33 O.Golden_ne wrote:
•O.Golden_ne holds little to no doubt to anyone.
Crossfire + Trackdoor
•O.Golden_ne agrees with everyone, especially on cases not against scums
I dont agree with you.
•O.Golden_ne made a few long posts, but it mostly echoes what other people had said.
Theres somethign wrong with sharing the same opinion as another player? ok....
•O.Golden_ne does do not remember his own arguments for a case. He forgets about it in another post and made contradicting arguments. It feels like he blatantly made arguments so he can agree.
you are a retard.
•O.Golden_ne redirects the spotlight away from himself
only because i know i'm town and its a waste of time. far out man. now i'm gonna get slack for saying im town! haha the mafia will be reading this laughing his arse off.
•O.Golden_ne gives very little insights. He merely say "I don't like this", "I feel like" without saying why. There is a more recent example: + Show Spoiler +
i dont hold any undergraduate degree, i'm hardly a scholar.
my case on alan. he is a wanker.
On June 17 2012 20:38 O.Golden_ne wrote:
Sorry for being rude. but this game gets me super anxious. i did over react a bit.
i'd be happy to be on the list if there was one generated. but i want trackd00r at the #1 spot on the list. that's my trade off.
bold move from s0lstice and i am also wary of this being a scum-slip.
how about:
Trackd00r, Me, s0stice, 4th person (i dont mind because i think Trackd00r will flip red).
i'm wary of unforgiven also, he's replaced MJ yet morphed into the same character.
Obviously, we don't have the greatest filter to work with, so take this with a grain of salt. My opinion is this: ignore him as a lynch candidate in this next cycle. If he gets modkilled because he doesn't participate, it is the same as him being lynched, so it is useless to go for a lynch on him this day.
As for who to actually lynch, I'm up for lynching milton purely based on who I have town reads of: sciberbia and suki (ignoring golden but he is probably town). I'll do a short post on some things I notice from Milton's filter in my post after this one.
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Oh, also gg alan! I wanna play with you again so don't disappear =>
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Oh right, now that it's daytime:
##vote Miltonkram
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I just noticed this post from Milton.
+ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 06:38 Miltonkram wrote:Alright, I caught up on the thread after I woke up. Here are my thoughts. sukiI can see her play being overzealous townie, but she hasn't done much to convince me. Another reason I'm suspicious is that she's ignored my case against her. I remember during my game as scum it was very tempting to ignore pressure and just hope that people would drop their cases instead of actually defending myself. I won't be dropping my pressure until I get a satisfactory response. @ s0Lstice, be wary of meta arguments. Scum, especially newbie scum, adapt their play from game to game. Crossfire99He's been coaching a lot without putting up any real content besides his weak pressure on austinmcc. I've got my eye on him. alan133roflwaffle's case on him was fairly decent. I don't understand why he dropped it. He's "contributed" without putting much pressure on players. roflwaffles55I'm suspicious of this guy based on two of his posts. First one is a response to s0Lstice/sciberbia: Show nested quote +Sure!
When it comes to lynching lurkers I would agree in that it shouldn't be the focus, and would prefer to lynch someone acting scummy day 1.
As to NL, I am firmly against it and if we can't get a clear majority on scummy-acting folks then we should at least lynch a lurker, especially on D1 and 2. Notice the eager to please tone of his post. I'm looking at it as a possible scumslip. His 2nd suspicious post: Show nested quote +I agree that I may have been a bit too aggressive right off the bat, but I implore you to look at my arguments and his, and take more from it then just an overzealous attempt on my part.
##unvote alan133
There you go, I'm still suspicious, but I may have underestimated the significance of a vote. Notice how self-conscious he is in this post, especially in that last line. I realize that several players weren't interested in his case, but there is absolutely no harm in keeping pressure on a player until they give you a satisfactory defense. Essentially he backs down from his pressure based on a tiny reprimand from Crossfire. It seems like he's trying to keep himself out of the spotlight. Mouldy JebDitto what s0Lstice said. The one thing I have to add is for people to look at his latest post. He apologizes and makes a bare bones defense of his posting that reeks of self-conscious play. He's #1 on my scumdar right now. Golden + HeavOnEarthGet in the thread and post more. You guys can start by giving me your opinions on this post. Obviously all these players can't be scum. I'll be looking through the thread more to see what I can do about narrowing down my list of suspicious players. Right now I'm leaning towards roflwaffles and MJ. I'm waiting to see if suki actually defends herself this time around.
Isn't it a little weird that he finds rofl scummy based on the two posts he quotes, but then likes his case on alan? It's just something to think about.
Anyway I just found these quotes by him. I'll bold the important points.
On June 17 2012 11:17 Miltonkram wrote:Trackd00r is my #1 scum suspect at this point. Here are a few things to keep in mind when looking at the D1 lynch. What scum motivations were there for a voteswitch? At what point did players move their votes over? Seeing that 3 players had moved their votes in quick succesion(suki, me, and roflwaffles + Show Spoiler +Funny tidbit. Spoilered cuz it's unimportant. Suki ninja'd me with her vote. I remember posting my vote and then looking back and being like, "hold on a second, this page is waaaaayyy longer than I remember when I refreshed." ) I find her being scum unlikely. Really think about this now, if suki and roflwaffles were both scum they were essentially going all in on bussing HeavOnEarth blowing any chance that town mislynches D1. Blowing such a chance seems like a pretty gutsy play so maybe she learned well from Xatalos, but I'm not entirely convinced. Don't know if you guys agree, does this make sense to everyone?Maybe this is too WIFOMy, but I feel like the safe play for scum would have been to have one player voting HeavOnEarth in order to gain some of the town cred in case he got lynched and one player voting someone else in order to keep a little momentum towards a possible mislynch. This isn't a strong point, so my opinions aren't the only things hinging on this. Regarding why I think trackd00r is scum, a lot of it has to do with the D1 lynch analysis that I outlined earlier. Other than that he spends a lot of time pressuring easy players (Crossfire and Golden), and putting up some pretty weak pressure. I don't think his priorities are in line with a town player's priorities. I have read suki's case and it was pretty good. I'd recommend you all take a second look at it. If she's wrong about trackd00r I'll give the case against her a second look with a different perspective. I don't think she's wrong though.##Vote: trackd00r
On June 19 2012 03:53 Miltonkram wrote:Hi guys. @ s0Lstice Yes, I am a bit surprised. @ sciberbia I'm pretty exhausted. Had to work an extremely long shift. If I feel like I'm about to get mislynched or people have questions about what motivated any of my posts I'll defend myself/answer questions. I will answer your question about my breadcrumbing comment. Please pardon me if my posting is a little incoherent. I'm really tired. You had been commenting quite a bit on blue role play and I thought I needed to add my two cents. I was trying to figure out ways for us to get enough confirmed town players to make it impossible for scum to win. At first I was thinking about the possibility of confirming two townies if we had a jailkeeper. One would claim they were RB'd and the jailer would show us his/her breadcrumb. I thought of what could go wrong after I posted my advice. What if we had a scum RBer and they breadcrumbed their action and used this to become confirmed town? My mind kind of exploded then. I was also thinking of confirming town players through a cop, but that would require this game not to be a setup with double godfathers. I find that a distinct possibility (if we have a cop) because I could see prplhz making a setup that is basically a "fuck you" to town players who rely too much on blue roles. Does this make sense? Basically my thoughts were chasing themselves around in circles and I didn't think all the possibilities through when I posted my breadcrumbing comment. I'm hoping everyone ignored it. Edit: I wrote this last night but my internet went out. Posting it now. Just so you know, I'm not going to waste a ton of time defending myself. I'd much prefer to scumhunt. Suki seems like the most logical lynch candidate for this upcoming day cycle. I'd prefer not to spend an entire day with the focus on her. I'll be rereading the thread to see if there is anything people missed. Analysis will be on it's way in a little while.
On June 20 2012 08:42 Miltonkram wrote:
I want to make a few comments on the situation we're in.
We seem to have consolidated on Unforgiven for our lynch today. Do not let this kill discussion! I see no harm in moving our discussion forward.
At this point our scum player has no one to defend but himself/herself. There is no one on the scum team left to protect anymore so any comments that our scum player makes are with the full intent of making himself/herself look as townie as possible as opposed to covering the tracks of another player. I say this because suki and I are likely the next players on the chopping block. Under this reasoning there's almost nothing we can do to convince town of our innocence. There's nothing suki can do to convince me she isn't scum if Unforgiven flips green, and, if I'm thinking correctly from any of the confirmed town players' viewpoints, there is nothing that I can do to convince you of my innocence.
Back to my point. We're lynching Unforgiven today but there is no harm in getting things out of the way for future discussion. If the game continues after this day cycle because Unforgiven flips green (I find it really unlikely at this point), either suki or I is next. First of all, is this correct? Do you guys have any questions for either of us or things you need clarified about our play? If this is correct and you decide on lynching one of us, consolidate on it quickly and let us know that there is no way we can defend ourselves. That way, if we're town, we can spend our time helping out as much as possible rather than wasting it on a defense that no one will listen to anyway.
Edit: Just saw Unforgiven's case on me. Posting this anyway. Not really seeing anything in it that sciberbia hasn't already pointed out. Will respond to it shortly after I've reread it a couple times.
So he went from being pretty much convinced of suki's townieness and really liking her case to thinking she's scum in the second post, but then we should ignore her? Huh??? Finally, he says suki is scum if unforgiven is green. What convinced him so completely that suki is scum? He never mentioned it in his posts. He just says she is scum. Also I don't get how if someone is the most logical candidate for a lynch you should just ignore them. You should pressure them and get responses to get more info. Additionally, he doesn't even mention that he no longer thinks that suki is scum or whatever. If unforgiven was scum then suki is town. How does this not factor into his posts at all. He just magically ignores his top scum read in favor of the new bandwagon with no explanation whatsoever. I don't like it at all.
##Vote Miltonkram
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@crossfire
crap, didn't think about that. If golden gets modkilled we only have 1 lynch.
Would miltonkram really have NK'd alan
I've been thinking a lot about the NK. How does miltonkram expect to win by NK'ing alan?
First of all, alan was more suspicious of me/suki/golden than he was of miltonkram. If alan was still alive today, miltonkram would have much better prospects of not being lynched. As it stands, suki and crossfire have deemed him suspicious, I have listed him as my #2 target, and golden has no recent reads.
I'd have to expect him to push a lynch on suki, but even then, who would he NK? Surely not crossfire. That would bring it down to me, golden, and miltonkram, and he'd have to expect me to lynch him. And if he NK's me, then he has to rely on crossfire picking to lynch golden over himself. Seems like quite a gamble.
On the other hand, if he had NK'd crossfire
He'd have great prospects of lynching suki today. Then he would just have to NK me and alan would likely lynch golden over miltonkram.
@suki, crossfire
You guys seem to be online now, and I'd like to hear your thoughts on this analysis. Do you really think miltonkram would have expected to survive today after NK'ing alan? And even if he did, do you think he'd like his chances if it comes down to crossfire/golden/miltonkram?
Here is my assemblage of stated reads prior to the the deadline. Please correct me if you see anything wrong.
+ Show Spoiler +
CROSSFIRE
miltonkram: possible mafia
golden: possible mafia
sciberbia: 100% town
suki: probably town
GOLDEN
?????????????????
SCIBERBIA
suki: first choice
miltonrkram: second choice
golden: almost surely town
crossfire: surely town
SUKI
miltonkram: definite mafia
golden/sciberbia/crossfire: town
MILTONKRAM
suki: suspect
golden: suspect
crossfire/sciberbia: town
ALAN
top target: sciberbia
golden: suspicious
suki: not sure
crossfire: town
miltonkram: town
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And consider if suki/golden is mafia. All they have to do is get miltonkram lynched today. Then suki could win by NK'ing me and getting crossfire to lynch golden. And golden could win by NK'ing crossfire and getting me to lynch suki. Doesn't this seem like a safer mafia plan?
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hmm I guess when I put it that way, the last day would become total WIFOM. But it still gives them at least a solid 50/50 assuming they can get miltonkram lynched today.
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look at it this way. there were 6 people alive last night:
3 unlikely to ever be lynched, and therefore sensible NK's over the last two nights: crossfire, alan, me
me: suspicious of suki and milton, not golden
alan: suspicious of suki and golden, not milton
crossfire: suspicious of golden and milton, not suki
So why would miltonkram kill alan first?
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Sorry I've been away guys. I thought my life would be less hectic after getting out of school, but I guess I was wrong. I'll do my best to address what people are bringing up.
@ crossfire
In regards to roflwaffles, I was entertaining two possible notions. One in which roflwaffles was scum, one in which he wasn't. That awkward vote-then-unvote thing he did looked scummy to me. At first I thought he was fully backing down from his pressure based solely on a wrist slap from you. Then roflwaffles made this post directed at alan.
Interesting that the first legitimate read that you come up with is a conspiracy between me and suki. Not only is it completely ridiculous, but you second guess it immediately, again leaving your options open so that you can't actually be held accountable for anything. Put yourself on the line, start contributing to the big picture and not just responding emotionally to me, and think logically about what you're going to post.
The biggest thing that keeps irking me about your play is your seeming avoidance of actual decision making, the fact that even when criticizing my play you can't say "I think this is scummy". You go all the way around it and put the possible motivations from both angles.
I would appreciate it if someone other then me looked at alan133's posts and formed their own independent opinion on him.
I thought roflwaffles was saying, "I took my vote off of alan, but I'm still suspicious of him and I'm still pressuring him." Since my pressure on roflwaffles hinged on the fact that he wasn't still suspicious of alan, I figured I had misunderstood him. Did he end up scum? Was that a scummy move on his part? Yes, but I thought I was misunderstanding him at the time.
I can understand how you're confused on my statements about suki and moving discussion forward. Keep in mind that I was really tired when I wrote those so I didn't communicate my point as clearly as I would have liked. I'll do my best to clarify them for you.
At this point, our scum player has no one left that he/she needs to defend. That makes it ten times harder for us town players to catch scumslips. Is it still possible that scum might slip up? Yes. I thought Unforgiven made a couple of scumslips, that's why I was so confident in lynching him. But at this point, all scum has to do is look as townie as possible because there is no one left to keep safe. That's why it gets frustrating for a townie trying to defend himself/herself and why a scum can just slip through the cracks. There oftentime comes a point where there is literally nothing a player can do to convince people one way or another. Suki is at that point for me. Her posts have looked really townie, but, if she's scum, what harm is there in looking townie? There isn't anyone she can inadvertently incriminate or that she has to keep an eye out for. The best way for a lone scum to play is by looking townie as hell.
I'd rather have us consolidate on a lynch quickly, and then use the rest of the day to discuss future lynch candidates. Does that make sense?
@ Everyone
If you guys are intent on lynching me, please consolidate on me quickly after you've let me know which points I should/shouldn't defend or clarify for you. If you decide my answers are unsatisfactory, don't beat a dead horse! Let me know that I'm a dead man walking and I'll do my best to make sure you guys lynch correctly during the next day cycle. With that in mind, I'll have a few reads up in a little while.
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I think the scenario can still end up with good for milton. Remember, I didn't post any strong accusations against milton prior to the NK so he was still pretty much sailing. Your case against him was half-hearted and you even went out of your way to tell him not to defend himself since he was pretty townie.
With you alive, you lynch me for sure, then you die, then its him and crossfire vs golden. Milton and crossfire have both had strong town reads all game whereas golden has been lurking. I think this is just as valid as your scenario with crossfire dead.
Actually if crossfire is dead, remember that I posted support for alan's case against golden, much stronger support than my small posts targetting milton. Perhaps he thought that there would be a scenario where I push a mislynch of golden with alan's support. You've been on the fence about me enough that you just might go for a golden lynch. Then alan dies. then its sciberbia vs suki vs milton. I think that's more of a 50/50 scenario than crossfire/golden/milton.
--
also if I were scum you and s0lstice would have both been dead on the first 2 nights.
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@suki
hang around. I want your response to something. Gimme a few minutes
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[quote]@suki, crossfire
You guys seem to be online now, and I'd like to hear your thoughts on this analysis. Do you really think miltonkram would have expected to survive today after NK'ing alan? And even if he did, do you think he'd like his chances if it comes down to crossfire/golden/miltonkram?
Basically yes and yes. Because there wasn't a strong case against him until I put one up after unforgiven's death. It's conceivable that he thought I would push for a golden lynch with alan, and if golden dies he's in bad shape. He needs me to die today, and you're the best bet for that.[/b]
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blrghhhhh dont take too long i'm already so tired haha. This game ate up like 3 hours without me noticing.
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@suki
First of all, you say that "with me alive, I lynch you (suki) for sure". Here is my last post on the subject before the deadline:
On June 22 2012 01:05 sciberbia wrote:
I'll be doing some serious thinking and posting 6 to 12 hours from now. Right now, I'm thinking it has to be between suki and miltonkram, and miltonkram feels more townie overall.
This doesn't seem like a "for sure" thing. Also, here were the stated views of live people on suki vs miltonkram before the deadline: + Show Spoiler +
ON SUKI
sciberbia and miltonkram attack
crossfire defends
golden???
ON MILtONKRAM
crossfire and suki attack
sciberbia kinda attacks
golden?????
You really think he'd be confident that I lynch you even with crossfire preferring miltonkram?
And even if it came down to crossfire vs milton vs golden, crossfire's last post on the subject was:
On June 21 2012 01:49 Crossfire99 wrote:
Oh, also if unforgiven flips green, I'm going to guess that either milton or golden are mafia, but i have both of them as pretty much town right now...unforgiven better flip red. lol
I guess it's reasonable to think crossfire would lynch golden there though.
NOW, about the scenario where crossfire dies, you seem to have forgotten that you posted a massive case on miltonkram where you assured us you'd vote for him not an hour after Unforgiven's death. Miltonkram would know that you're going for him and not golden. Clearly golden is not getting lynched there. If you think Milton might expect us to lynch you with alan dead, surely he'd expect us to lynch you with crossfire dead? and not golden.
You realize that you assured a vote on milton early in N3 right? Does that change your analysis at all?
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Buh. you're right. i posted it after unforgiven's death not after alan's death, meaning milton knew my suspicions. That discounts my theory that I'd push a golden lynch with alan.
Ok let me think on this again -_-;
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@miltonkram
what are your thoughts on all this?
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@ sciberbia
You're making my head hurt But WIFOM situations always make my head hurt. Let me read it a few more times and I'll get back to you.
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Crossfire dies, leaving alan sciberbia suki golden milton.
suki pushes milton. Alan has town read of milton, on the fence about suki. Sciberbia leaning for suki scum. Suki gets lynched. Either alan or sciberbia left. If he kills alan then sciberbia has a golden town read and lynches milton with golden's support. If alan alive, he must know that both me and sciberbia were strongly attacking milton. I don't see a surefire golden lynch in this situation. Since alan is confirmed town milton is in bad shape cuz golden auto-votes for milton.
Current scenario
alan dies. leaving sciberbia crossfire suki golden milton
sciberbia and milton go after suki, suki and crossfire go after milton. golden forced to choose. Possible that milton feels like his defense is strong enough or the case against suki is good enough for suki to die. If suki dies, then he kills sciberbia leaving him with golden, crossfire and milton. Feel that this is better scenario cuz at least crossfire isn't confirmed town.
difference is, if milton survives today then he is in much better shape in the current scenario than in the scenario with alan or sciberbia alive. Perhaps he's gambling everything on being able to lynch me today. If he can do that then this scenario is better than stuck against sciberbia or alan at the end.
Thus it makes sense for him to kill alan in the off chance that he survives today, than aiming to survive today and in a tough spot at the very end. So I guess the difference is alan won't choose golden, and he's confirmed town. Crossfire won't choose golden either but at least he's not confirmed town, there is a slim chance golden will attack crossfire. Sciberbia won't choose golden and he's practically confirmed town, no way golden will vote sciberbia.
Milton is in a tough spot all around so he has to gamble.
How does that sound?
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basically crossfire golden milton is his best-case end game scenario, and the only way he gets that is if he shoots sciberbia or alan last night and gets me lynched today.
If he shoots sciberbia tho, he most likely wont get me lynched today. Therefore he must shoot alan.
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also are you still here, should i wait for your response cuz i wanna sleep T__T;
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ok i waited 20 mins and no response.. So good nite >_<;
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lol good night. sorry. i take too long to make posts
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me too. i also take too long to go to bed.. you gonna post soon?
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ehhhhhhhhh never mind i really should go to bed. Goodnite for reals~
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@ suki + sciberbia
Just a quick thought. The only reason we've cleared Golden is because HeavOnEarth tunneled him from the get go D1. The only other person Heaven pressured besides him was MJ/Unforgiven. We seem to have cleared Golden based on this and the fact that he voted for Heaven.
Roflwaffles never mentioned Golden. Feel free to check his filter in case I missed something. Golden never commented on the roflwaffles situation N1.
I can see Heaven being coached into attacking one of his scumbuddies in order for scum to cover their bases from the get go. Furthermore it makes sense for a Godfather to bus someone D1. Even if Heaven was checked he'd turn up green. If that happened HeavOnEarth would be as close to confirmed townie as possible. HeavOnEarth's pressure could have been a ploy that backfired on himself, but unintentionally still got a scum player (Golden) on the "confirmed townie" list.
Notice when Golden disappeared from the thread. His last meaningful posts are after alan133 posts a case against him. Golden responds quite angrily, an emotion I'm not accustomed to seeing from him in any of his previous games. Golden could have realized that the more he posted, the more chances he had of slipping up. Instead he's letting his status as "confirmed townie" keep him safe.
Also, the only real pressure put on Golden after HeavOnEarth was by austinmcc on D1 and alan133. Looking at alan133's last couple posts, it's not hard to extrapolate that alan might've pushed for a Golden lynch quite hard. This allows our night kills to make a lot more sense.
Not gonna lie, I'm tired and I haven't double checked this much. I'm going to get some sleep and then revisit this possibility. Please have a look and see if this makes sense.
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@miltonkram
wait wait wait. What do you think of suki? You think she is mafia?
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@suki
Your logic makes more sense this time. It's tricky to analyze the 3-person LYLO. I think crossfire is for all practical purposes as confirmed townie as alan was, though, so I don't think crossfire/golden/milton is any better for milton than alan/golden/milton.
you proposed:
kill alan --> lynch suki --> kill sciberbia --> crossfire/golden/milton
I propose:
kill crossfire --> lynch suki --> kill sciberbia --> alan/golden/milton
It basically comes down to this: D5 is gonna be some sort of 50/50 WIFOM no matter who it comes down to. Either alan/crossfire/sciberbia must be alive, and nobody is going to vote one of those 3 IMO (maybe alan votes sciberbia but scum seems to have decided not to go for that).
However, think about D4. It was pretty apparent to me that it'd come down to milton vs suki, since these two seemed to be accusing each other. Crossfire is suspicious of milton but not suki. Alan is suspicious (kinda) of suki but not of milton. Milton has a much better chance of getting suki lynched with alan alive than with crossfire alive. Then he ends up with the 50/50 WIFOM D5, which he would've got anyway.
So, what are possible reasons miltonkram might have killed alan?
-- Didn't really think about it that much
-- Thought about it, but came to a different conclusion than me
-- Was expecting someone to think of all this and therefore not suspect him
None of these seem especially likley. Overall, I really just don't know why he wouldn't kill crossfire over alan. Alan was spewing some suspicion at me/golden/suki but not at miltonkram. Alan said that he did not like my case on miltonkram and found me scummier for it. And crossfire was between golden/miltonkram. And even made a post against miltonkram an hour before the deadline. Also, nobody has shown any willingness to even consider lynching crossfire. And it was still possible that crossfire was jailkeeper or something. An NK on crossfire just makes so much more sense for miltonkram.
Unless someone convinces me otherwise, I'm considering this NK some decent evidence in Miltonkram's favor. But, I really need to spend more time analysing filters. It's now 5AM here and I'm still not sure about suki vs miltonkram vs golden.
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If golden neither posts nor votes today, will he be modkilled, replaced, or what? Please try to decide earlier rather than later.
@GOLDEN
I'd really appreciate if you told us what's up with you. Are you following the thread? Are you planning to vote at the last second again? Or are you interested in discussing about the last mafia?
Also, can you explain this quote?
On June 15 2012 06:27 O.Golden_ne wrote:
I'm not really impressed with the case on me, if i get bussed off by the mafia and you see i flip scum i ask you consider HeavonEarth as a prime candidate or lynch. While i'm not happy with the case made against me (it doesn't really feel that solid) HeavonEarth jumps on the bandwagon very easily.
I'd like to hear other people's thoughts on this too. Is it just me or does he claim scum hardcore? How can this be a typo? And how drunk would he have to be to slip this as mafia?
@Crossfire
I've gone through your filter one last time and there's no way I'm ever voting for you. So if you're mafia, congrats on the win. But if I'm right about you (which I think I am), and you're right about me (which you are), we can kill 2 out of 3: suki, miltonkram, and golden. I'm honestly still not sure, but I'm leaning toward suki being mafia. If only milton and golden would contribute more...
I still need to look more at miltonkram and suki. I don't know where all my time went tonight. It is actually past 5 AM. 6:30 PM EST tomorrow I'll be back to the game and make more definitive posts before I sleep. No NBA game to distract me tomorrow.
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@ sciberbia
I'm in a really weird place with suki right now. If I were to vote for her, it would be for her D1/N1 actions alone. Everything she has been doing since then has given off townie vibes.
It's possible that the reason her play has been so different from the D1/N1 cycle up until now is because there was still other scum present in the game. Losing both scum partners can trigger a change in behavior. No longer does she have to look after her scum partners, she can just look as townie as possible. If she's scum, she's played the part of the helpful townie really well since roflwaffles died. This is both a point for her and a point against her. You can see why I said that in some cases it is literally impossible to defend oneself.
My original thought was that you guys would lynch either me or suki this day cycle, and then lynch the other one the next. I considered you, Golden, and Crossfire as confirmed town. Process of elimination, suki has to be scum. After checking post timings and looking through Golden's filter, I'm not so sure anymore.
Please take a look at Golden. Consider the fact that a Godfather bussing a teammate D1 is a really safe play. Are there any reasons he's a confirmed townie besides him voting for, and getting pressured by Heaven?
I really think I have something. I'm going to reread Golden's filter a couple more times just to make sure this is correct.
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@Crossfire
I've gone through your filter one last time and there's no way I'm ever voting for you. So if you're mafia, congrats on the win. But if I'm right about you (which I think I am), and you're right about me (which you are), we can kill 2 out of 3: suki, miltonkram, and golden. I'm honestly still not sure, but I'm leaning toward suki being mafia. If only milton and golden would contribute more...
I still need to look more at miltonkram and suki. I don't know where all my time went tonight. It is actually past 5 AM. 6:30 PM EST tomorrow I'll be back to the game and make more definitive posts before I sleep. No NBA game to distract me tomorrow.
[/QUOTE]
I feel the same way about you. Are you going to be around from 6:30 EDT (it should be EDT not EST) until you sleep? I want to be able to discuss stuff with you and I'll probably be on sometime soon after 9:00 EDT.
Also, golden get in here and post your thoughts. I am really interested in your thoughts on this whole situation.
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Ugh. I messed up my quote. This is what my last post should have looked like.
@Crossfire
I've gone through your filter one last time and there's no way I'm ever voting for you. So if you're mafia, congrats on the win. But if I'm right about you (which I think I am), and you're right about me (which you are), we can kill 2 out of 3: suki, miltonkram, and golden. I'm honestly still not sure, but I'm leaning toward suki being mafia. If only milton and golden would contribute more...
I still need to look more at miltonkram and suki. I don't know where all my time went tonight. It is actually past 5 AM. 6:30 PM EST tomorrow I'll be back to the game and make more definitive posts before I sleep. No NBA game to distract me tomorrow.
I feel the same way about you. Are you going to be around from 6:30 EDT (it should be EDT not EST) until you sleep? I want to be able to discuss stuff with you and I'll probably be on sometime soon after 9:00 EDT.
Also, golden get in here and post your thoughts. I am really interested in your thoughts on this whole situation.
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On June 22 2012 18:10 sciberbia wrote:Also, can you explain this quote? Show nested quote +On June 15 2012 06:27 O.Golden_ne wrote:
I'm not really impressed with the case on me, if i get bussed off by the mafia and you see i flip scum i ask you consider HeavonEarth as a prime candidate or lynch. While i'm not happy with the case made against me (it doesn't really feel that solid) HeavonEarth jumps on the bandwagon very easily. I'd like to hear other people's thoughts on this too. Is it just me or does he claim scum hardcore? How can this be a typo? And how drunk would he have to be to slip this as mafia?
+ Show Spoiler + Yay! I can quote correctly again.
Thinking about this, I actually think this completely proves Golden's innocence. One of the rules of this game is to play to win. If golden is scum and actually died there, he just outed his mafia buddy. This is completely against the rules and therefore he just ruined the game for everyone. I actually think it is a just typo.
Also, if it turns out that golden is scum, this game better be declared a misgame or something due to the above quote.
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On June 22 2012 23:39 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 22 2012 18:10 sciberbia wrote:Also, can you explain this quote? On June 15 2012 06:27 O.Golden_ne wrote:
I'm not really impressed with the case on me, if i get bussed off by the mafia and you see i flip scum i ask you consider HeavonEarth as a prime candidate or lynch. While i'm not happy with the case made against me (it doesn't really feel that solid) HeavonEarth jumps on the bandwagon very easily. I'd like to hear other people's thoughts on this too. Is it just me or does he claim scum hardcore? How can this be a typo? And how drunk would he have to be to slip this as mafia? + Show Spoiler + Yay! I can quote correctly again. Thinking about this, I actually think this completely proves Golden's innocence. One of the rules of this game is to play to win. If golden is scum and actually died there, he just outed his mafia buddy. This is completely against the rules and therefore he just ruined the game for everyone. I actually think it is a just typo. Also, if it turns out that golden is scum, this game better be declared a misgame or something due to the above quote.
Nevermind. Ignore this analysis. I was advised by a coach that this should only be viewed as a slip of the tongue. No matter his alignment, he should have written town. We should use the rest of his filter to judge him.
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@Suki
Don't worry, not gonna disappear anytime soon
@All
GG all, was fun while it lasted, off to the obs to see if they are raging at me right now :p
Good luck town! Its up to you all now.
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Hm. Milton do you see the flaw in your logic?
Your case against scum suki is that when my scumbuddies died, I started playing more townie because I had nothing to lose.
My case against you is that when your scumbuddies died, you started playing more scummy because you were much closer to losing.
@sciberbia your NK analysis makes sense in a way, but if you really think that crossfire is as confirmed town as alan was, then there's really no difference between NKing him or NKing alan last night. We've already shown that we analyse NK's to death, it's not a stretch to assume the last scum would kill alan to mess with our brains.
Put it this way, if crossfire was NK'd, what would you, sciberbia, have taken from the NK? Would you really have pushed for a suki lynch or would you have followed the same line of reasoning now and seen it as a point against Milton?
The NK has the base merit of getting rid of the 100% confirmed townie, which Milton has to do.
.
Also, thinking about a possible scum golden, I don't even want to analyse golden's play. I personally won't accept a scum win if golden flips red, because mafia is a game that relies on communication, however little. Golden hasn't simply lurked, he's left the game. Maybe that's me just getting frustrated though.
.
Milton's post surprised me. If he really were scum I'd expect even a tiny amount of pressure on me. If we all lynch golden and golden flips green, scum milton has sciberbia, crossfire and suki to choose from to NK. he has to kill one of crossfire and sciberbia because im the only one even slightly suspicious. But I really really don't think this is a good line of play from him.
It doesn't make sense to soft defend me like this, when it would be just as sensible to soft pressure me.
Guess I'll be taking yet another close look at everyone.
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Eh I still think Milton looks suspicious.
his slips:
His soft defense of roflwaffles ("..the unvote seems less scummy")
His soft support of rofls ("as far as alan133 is concerned you may have something")
His nervousness pre-heaven lynch
his playstyle:
following rofl's death, he stopped contributing to town and simply followed the strongest case.
his busses were easy to do.
crossfire's recent post So he went from being pretty much convinced of suki's townieness and really liking her case to thinking she's scum in the second post, but then we should ignore her? Huh??? Finally, he says suki is scum if unforgiven is green. What convinced him so completely that suki is scum? He never mentioned it in his posts. He just says she is scum. Also I don't get how if someone is the most logical candidate for a lynch you should just ignore them.
Thinking on why he hasn't taken a strong stance on me: Prior to today, it was beneficial for him to not take a strong stance on me or even read me as town. I have been the primary suspect for so long that if I got lynched, the other players would look bad for pushing my lynch and he gets to stay out of the spotlight. Perhaps due to the fact that he's never seen me as scummy, he can't help to push my lynch or he'd look really suspicious (due to inconsistency). This weird non-committal response on who is town is the best he can manage and still stay consistent with his previous views.
I don't know how he plans to survive the final day, I really don't. But I still think he slipped several times and that you can find scum motivation for his play style and posts. Maybe the best he can come up with is to have me crossfire and himself at the end of the game and pull some WIFOM sneakiness against me.
I don't know how to analyse the NK and make it fit Milton without resorting to WIFOM. But I don't think it discounts my case on him purely because there's possible WIFOM going on.
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Evidence for:
heavonearth attacking him from the get-go
Evidence against:
"Essentially i'm all for an agressive early game."
- Makes statement, doesn't deliver
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15081294
- List post. Summarizes the day, not all that useful for town.
- isn't suspicious of anyone at the time except MJ.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15081396
Avoid commenting on HeavOnEarth until sciberbia provokes him
Crossfire "seems okay"
reserves judgement on suki and alan
The post afterwords says he can't believe he missed sciberbia's case on Crossfire and maybe he's totally wrong. Looks like a possible preparation to redirect attention against crossfire.
" if i get bussed off by the mafia and you see i flip scum town i ask you consider HeavonEarth as a prime candidate or lynch."
- So basically, if the mafia target him and he ends up getting lynched, HeavOnEarth is golden's prime target. The wording is really strange, to the point that I think it may be a slip. "bussing" is only done by mafia against their teammates. the scum/town mess up could have been a slip that he sees himself as scum. If he dies and flips scum, then the fact that HeavOnEarth is his prime target would relieve some pressure on HeavOnEarth.
- Golden was not really under fire here. Its weird that he would say what amounts to 'if I get lynched today, my primary suspect is the current primary suspect of the day'.
Golden's uncharacteristic frustration
- Ok, I can see this as a tell on him. The frustration could be genuine but doesn't necessarily have to be because he is town. He could be frustrated and be scum as well. The fact that it's uncharacteristic is actually very interesting now that I'm taking an in depth look at golden. At this point I'm willing to put it as a point against him.
in regards to HeavonEarth.
In relation to my:
a) knowing i'm town.
b) Him trying to bus me one the grounds of "seems like a solid case".
c) lacklustre contribution and no rebuttle to any arguments.
i feel like he see's a bandwagon forming and jumps on straight away.
#VOTE: HeavonEarth
This quote has always given me difficulty when I try to interpret it. It's really confusing.
Here is my interpretation.
a) "I know I'm town" - self proclamation of role. Not useful
b) "Him trying to bus me..." - Heavon has a weak case on golden
c) Heavon didn't contribute or rebute any arguments.
Heavon sees a bandwagon forming on golden and jumps on it? That doesn't make sense cuz heavon was the first person to attack golden.
In any case, he votes HeavOn because Heavon hasn't been playing a strong game? But there's no actual scummy behaviour that golden lists as his reason to vote him.
this is suspicious.
"We'll obviously need to keep an eye on Alan113 just because everyone needs to be pressured several times during the course of the game, i just never found him to be as scummy as say HeavonEarth is looking atm."
- Seems wishy-washy to say 'we obviously need to keep an eye on Alan113".
"my opinion on vig role claiming is that its too late. they should have said it like 5 minutes before the day 2 post. how can we trust the person who claims now? anyone could claim it. if they said who they were shooting like 5seconds before daypost then it could be 100% confirmed they were town. so dont claim now."
- Encouraging blues not to role claim, thereby denying information to town. If the vig does roleclaim seems like he may try to discredit the vig, based on this post.
Not voting:
Austinmcc
Crossfire99
First day: HeavonEarth dies with the minimum 6 of 6 votes. Roflwaffle being one of them. If they could mafia would have saved him and forced a mislynch. So i think that 2 mafia WOULD NOT have voted for Heavonearth first day. It just doesnt pay to have him lynched. A NL would have benefited them so much more. So under that reasoning its my opinion that any of these people had a likely mafia flip from this point:
Astinmcc RIP
Crossfire
S0lstice
Trackdoor
His list of likely mafia are all confirmed towns. He tries to reason that both mafia wouldn't have bussed their teammate. Under this logic it clears both him and roflwaffle from suspicion.
Lol last time i ever stick my neck out for someone i think is town, what a retard alan. your argument that i contradict myself is invalid. I don't ever contradict myself, i purely state that no-one is ever confirmed town until they flip after saying that i think you are safe. read it again bro.
Getting upset because someone tried to point out a contradiction he made. "I don't ever contradict myself" .. This actually seems too bold for a townie to say. A townie's game is ruled by uncertainty, to state that you never contradict yourself is like saying you'll never make a mistake. Very suspicious.
my case on alan. he is a wanker.
bahahahaha. that makes me smile every time.
Sorry for being rude. but this game gets me super anxious. i did over react a bit.
i'd be happy to be on the list if there was one generated. but i want trackd00r at the #1 spot on the list. that's my trade off.
bold move from s0lstice and i am also wary of this being a scum-slip.
how about:
Trackd00r, Me, s0stice, 4th person (i dont mind because i think Trackd00r will flip red).
i'm wary of unforgiven also, he's replaced MJ yet morphed into the same character.
Points fingers at trackd00r, s0lstice and unforgiven. All of whom are dead.
Following this he disappears from the thread.
Interesting note. He said he'd reserve judgement on me until after Day 1, but he never commented on me. This is in a mafia's favour cuz it looked like I would be lynched anyways.
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Summary
I had an epiphany. Milton said that after the rofl and heavon were killed, the last remaining mafia doesn't have to do anything special to appear townie. He just has to play like a townie.
This means that, if we're looking at golden, the most important information is actually right at the beginning of the game. Extreme lurking like what golden is doing is beneficial to mafia as long as he doesn't get modkilled. Basically town just rips each other apart and he never has to say a word.
Now, it pains me to say this, but if I compare D1/N1 between Miltonkram and Golden, practically every post golden makes has suspicious elements to it. The reasoning that HeavOnEarth targeted golden so early is flimsy - after all, who expects a strong case to be made that early on Day 1? Perhaps it was a clever distractionary move. It may have been that Golden's best move to do after rofl was killed was to just disappear completely. If he had kept up his style of posting post N1 he definitely would have been under a lot of scrutiny, but since he disappeared no one really paid attention to him.
Help me out sciberbia and crossfire. I have now posted two big cases, one on Milton and one on Golden. Do you think my case on Milton is weak or that there are any particular things about Milton's posts that confirm he is town in your mind? Do you think my case on golden has merit?
I have been single-mindedly going after Milton because I thought my points were conclusive, but now I'm not sure. The NK and Milton's soft defence of me can only be explained by WIFOM and desperate play if he's scum, but if golden is scum then he's in a good position (minus the possibility of being modkilled for lack of participation).
I will have to mull over my thoughts a bit.
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The post afterwords says he can't believe he missed sciberbia's case on Crossfire and maybe he's totally wrong. Looks like a possible preparation to redirect attention against crossfire.
By the way this completely explains the first night kill. Alan's primary suspicion was crossfire. Crossfire had a decent amount of people suspicious of him. Golden is preparing to redirect D2 lynch to Crossfire.
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NK3 : golden kills alan. sciberbia lynches either me or milton, thinking if its not one it must be the other. Golden is left alive and is the obvious scapegoat. Milton/me votes for golden, golden votes for milton/me. Sciberbia has to choose between golden who has been thought of as town the whole game, or me/milton, who have had plenty of suspicions raised on them.
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I don't have a lot of time to post from work. I'll be online from 6:30PM till whenever. One thing I will add about golden is that he might have killed austinmcc just because golden was really pissed off at him?
I just really don't know. Everyone looks town to me. I'll be online later.
@golden
If you are town, could you please show up?
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What are everyone else's thoughts on his filter from previous games?
sigh, golden seems like such a nice guy compared to this game =[
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One thing I will add about golden is that he might have killed austinmcc just because golden was really pissed off at him?
I think I actually brought that up earlier too. Certainly fits 'frustrated angry golden'.
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@ suki
The reason I was nervous was because it felt like the lynch was going too smoothly. A D1 scum lynch is really bad for the scum team. I thought that scum would do more to derail the lynch. I was wrong. It was pretty strange that no one tried to defend him and it made me feel like we might be mislynching.
In regards to the Golden case, here's a quote from austinmcc on N1.
---snip
Will be looking back over things while at work. So far rofl is looking pretty red, and, while I want to look it over again, that most likely means that we're looking at MJ/unforgiven as town and possibly alan as town. Not enough pressure on MJ to look bus-y, looks more like trying to get everyone riled up over an easy target.
During D1, austin put pressure on Golden, MJ/Unforgiven, and a little on Crossfire for lurking. Notice how he clears one of the players he pressured and doesn't mention the other two. Crossfire came up with a good explanation for his lurking. Golden could have interpreted that austinmcc would be gunning for him during the D2 cycle.
Also, I checked back and Golden awkwardly never responded to HeavOnEarth's "meta" case against him. Is that point alone enough proof of his scumminess? Not really, but it does lend credence to the idea that Golden was supposed to be bussed D1 and HeavOnEarth botched it.
I am voting Golden for the following reasons:
- Golden awkwardly avoided commenting on HeavOnEarth's attack against him.
- The austinmcc and alan133 kills make a lot of sense if Golden was scum.
- Golden's town-play has not been stellar, he joined the bandwagon on HeavOnEarth fairly late.
- He became confirmed town from circumstance, rather than good play on his part.
- He did just enough to become "confirmed townie" and then disappeared from the thread.
Seems pretty solid to me.
##Vote: O.Golden_ne
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Alright, I took a nap and came back to the thread. I reread Milton's posts with a 'townie Milton' perspective and I can see why the general impression of him is town. I also can see that my case can simply be a misinterpretation of his words and trying to read things as scum slips. Milton sounds like he's had a pretty transparent game, and being convinced that trackd00r and unforgiven were scum fits the townie uninformed perspective better than the scum's informed perspective. Also, Milton has had a townie read of me all game, and now that we've reached the end game and I'm still alive, it's becoming clear that having such a read actually hinders a scum milton's agenda. He needed to be able to pressure me and force a mislynch on me but that doesn't look like its going to happen. His best-case end game scenario is pretty crappy and scum are all about thinking long term, so a scum milton might have set himself better than this... Milton's most recent post about me and the NK also felt weird to me from a scum Milton perspective.
Giving golden's filter a once over, warning bells sound off when I read his posts about telling vig not to claim, him saying he never contradicts himself, and the general vibe once he starts getting angry. Falling off the radar perfectly fits a scum golden's agenda while not working for a town golden's one. His contributions in the previous threads too showed that he was a helpful townie, which is not what happened here. The NK of austin makes sense (esp. when you think it could be a rage kill) and the N3 NK makes sense.
Although I made a big case against Milton and insta-voted him today, it's not like I voted him lightly. I made the case with the idea that I was pretty damn sure he was the last scum, and it took me a while to come off it. The reasons for that are posted above.
I asked for sciberbia and crossfire's thoughts on the matter at the end of my case on golden, but I think I'm not going to wait for their response.
##unvote Miltokram
##vote O.golden_ne
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EBWOP: Milton's most recent post about me, and the NK of alan also felt weird to me from a scum Milton perspective.
Punctuation is good.
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OK I've been thinking about this all day, and I've now spent a couple hours reading filters and thinking. I would really like to lynch golden and then suki if golden filps town. Miltonkram is my surest town read of the three. And Crossfire is still out of the question.
I'll post some reasoning later but I'm pretty exhausted right now having not slept much last night. I know Crossfire is supposed to be getting online soon, so I'll just nap for like an hour and check back on the thread.
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Ok I'm back. Ask me whatever you want. I'll be around for as long as it takes me to finish watching Liquid Rising. (I'll still check the thread periodically during it).
Ok I like Milton's defense of the accusations against him as well as his points on Golden. He makes solid points especially the bus on day 1 first thing, which was the reason I completely cleared him in my head to begin with early on. He also explains how the night kill of austin makes sense if golden is mafia. I honestly couldn't for the life of me figure out why austin died night 1, but now it makes sense.
##Unvote
##Vote: O.Golden_ne
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Well it seems we are all agreement on lynching golden.
His filter reads kinda townie to me (barring when he claimed scum). I'm not buying too much into the comparison with previous games. Golden seemed generally mad, whether town or mafia. His line about the vigilante was definitely bad advice, not sure if it's scum-motivated though.
But town reads are relative at this point and I'd definitely rather lynch golden than miltonkram. Golden also fits with the NKs more than the other 2, especially for austinmcc and alan. Also, if you are going to consider D1 busses, suki or miltonkram on HeavOnEarth was more of a real (potential) bus than HeavOnEarth on golden. HeavOnEarth even kinda backed off of it of his own accord, which felt odd. Also, the whole thing about his "slip" where mafia is bussing him off and him flipping scum has to be counted against him.
Anyway, I'm not gonna waste too much time trying to convince 3 people already voting golden to vote golden. I really hope he flips scum tomorrow, and I think there's a pretty decent chance.
@Crossfire
If golden flips town, we have to decide whether to lynch suki or miltonkram. I just feel that suki has to be more likely mafia than miltonkram. I'd assume your not convinced of this? We should definitely talk about this during night phase if golden flips town, and maybe even before then since today's lynch is already pretty much decided. I'll probably make a post tomorrow detailing why I think miltonkram is the more likely town.
But for now, today's lynch is pretty much decided so I'm just going to sleep. 8 PM tomorrow can't come fast enough x_x
##Vote O.Golden_ne
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@sciberbia
I'm not going to be around until after the lynch happens. Hopefully golden is actually scum, but if not I still think suki is town, so that leaves me with milton. I'll read your post on milton during the night and we can discuss then.
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And I know I'm town, so logically speaking Milton must be mafia for me, even though after all my analysis he pretty much reads town to me unless I'm really set on spinning his play as mafia.
I really really really hope we've won here. If not, the only piece left will be who mafia NK's on the final night. The game will be reduced down to 3 people, and out of those 3 barring some insanely good NK examination it feels like it's going to be a shot in the dark.
I mean, all four of us have pretty much cross-analysed each other to death. If there was something substantial we'd have found it... right?
So I really really really hope we take the win at the end of today... cuz I can't think of any more points to discuss 'just in case' golden bleeds green.
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Hey guys, just a quick update.
I'm out of town for a friend's wedding. I'll try and get in here and post when I get some downtime, but I'm not sure how frequent that will be. I'll catch up on the game whenever I get the chance.
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reasons why miltonkram looks really town
Initial suspicions on roflwaffles + Show Spoiler +Miltonkram puts roflwaffles in his top 2 most suspicious about 21 hours into D1: + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 06:38 Miltonkram wrote:
roflwaffles55
I'm suspicious of this guy based on two of his posts. First one is a response to s0Lstice/sciberbia:
...
Notice how self-conscious he is in this post, especially in that last line. I realize that several players weren't interested in his case, but there is absolutely no harm in keeping pressure on a player until they give you a satisfactory defense. Essentially he backs down from his pressure based on a tiny reprimand from Crossfire. It seems like he's trying to keep himself out of the spotlight.
...
Obviously all these players can't be scum. I'll be looking through the thread more to see what I can do about narrowing down my list of suspicious players. Right now I'm leaning towards roflwaffles and MJ. I'm waiting to see if suki actually defends herself this time around. Not only does he show suspicions on roflwaffles, but his reasoning is actually quite good. roflwaffles did make himself look scared by backing down off his top suspect just because people disagreed with his case. roflowaffles then made 2 posts. One post in which he said miltonkram had "defeated his own arguments" and then this post further pressuring alan: + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 07:35 roflwaffles55 wrote:
@alan
Interesting that the first legitimate read that you come up with is a conspiracy between me and suki. Not only is it completely ridiculous, but you second guess it immediately, again leaving your options open so that you can't actually be held accountable for anything. Put yourself on the line, start contributing to the big picture and not just responding emotionally to me, and think logically about what you're going to post.
The biggest thing that keeps irking me about your play is your seeming avoidance of actual decision making, the fact that even when criticizing my play you can't say "I think this is scummy". You go all the way around it and put the possible motivations from both angles.
I would appreciate it if someone other then me looked at alan133's posts and formed their own independent opinion on him.
Then, miltonkram backs off of roflwaffes, because miltonkram sees that roflwaffles is still pressuring alan. Now, this whole back-and-forth does seem like it could be an artificial conversation between two mafia. But, don't you think it would be a bit too obvious? Why does miltonkram back off of roflwaffles if this is a bussing thing? Nobody else showed any suspicions of roflwaffles, so it wasn't like roflwaffles was in any danger. I don't think it makes sense for a scum miltonkram would be backing off so quickly there. Surely he would realize it'd look suspicious if either him or roflwaffles ever died and flipped red. Anyway, I have to consider the whole thing with roflwaffles slight evidence in his favor. If Miltonkram really did bus HeavOnEarth, that means he kinda bussed both scumbuddies on D1. This seems a bit unnecessary and overly ambitious.
His movements on the alan bandwaggon+ Show Spoiler +I think this is really good evidence for miltonkram being town, especially relative to suki. Here is a summary of how the alan bandwaggon rolled on D1 + Show Spoiler +
-- (1) roflwaffles accuses alan hard and votes him
-- suki is not convinced
-- crossfire is not convinced
-- (2) miltonkram puts alan in his top 2
-- trackd00r is not convinced
-- (3) s0Lstice jumps on the bandwaggon
-- (4) suki changes her mind and jumps on the bandwaggon
-- sciberbia defends alan
-- (3) miltonkram backs down from alan
-- golden will reserve judgement
-- austinmcc is not convinced
-- suki continues to attack alan
-- (2) s0Lstice backs off alan
-- (1) suki backs off alan
-- (0) alan shoots roflwaffles and becomes confirmed town
Now miltonkram and roflwaffles being scumbuddies wouldn't make any sense here. roflwaffles brings up a case, two people aren't convinced, and then scumbuddy miltonkram jumps on the scum bandwaggon? What? Highly unlikely. I've read miltonkram's mafia QT from NMM XIV and he really tries not to tie himself to his scumbuddy. Then, after s0Lstice and suki jump on the bandwaggon, miltonkram jumps off, and posts a bit of defense for alan. How does a mafia miltonkram expect alan to get mislynched by behaving like that? I think it's more likely that miltonkram read my defense of alan and liked it. He also looked back through alan's filter, and decided to back off of him. suki's movements on this bandwaggon look far more suspicious. She changes her mind at the worst possible times.
His "bus" on HeavOnEarth+ Show Spoiler +This has to be counted in his favor. First, look at how he calls out HeavOnEarth twice for lurking: On June 14 2012 06:38 Miltonkram wrote:
Golden + HeavOnEarth
Get in the thread and post more. You guys can start by giving me your opinions on this post.
On June 14 2012 08:05 Miltonkram wrote:
@Crossfire, Golden, and HeavOnEarth
What do you think of these two players and the cases against them? Are there any scummy players you think we're missing? We need more activity out of you guys. Of the three of you, only heaven's put decent pressure on anyone and even that is difficult to take seriously because he hasn't followed up on his reads at all. Then, he is third on the HeavOnEarth bandwaggon, after me and s0Lstice. Seeing as HeavOnEarth was s0Lstice's top target, and in my top 3, and s0Lstice and I had a lot of thread influence, it would have been quite risky for a scum miltonkram to add any more fuel to the fire. Does he really want to get the godfather lynched D1? Then miltonkram goes to sleep, wakes up, and reads the thread. s0Lstice is pushing a HeavOnEarth lynch. alan has also voted him. Then miltonkram sensibly puts his vote on HeavOnEarth. All of miltonkram's actions contributed to the HeavOnEarth lynch, so it's certainly good evidence in favor of him being townie. Now what kind of lame-ass bus would these posts be? Miltonkram's pre-lynch nervousness has been held against him. At first, I saw it that way too. But if you really think about it, I think it's good evidence in his favor. On June 15 2012 05:33 Miltonkram wrote:
Ok it's time we start consolidating lynch candidates. Right now it looks like people are interested in lynching Heaven,Crossfire, and maybe Golden. Am I correct? I think those are our realistic lynch candidates at this point. I'd suggest everyone limit their votes to these three players unless you think I'm overlooking something huge. On June 15 2012 05:48 Miltonkram wrote:
@ Heaven
There are a lot of people jumping on your case really quickly. Not gonna lie, it's making me a little nervous. Please post some sort of defense or at the very least what kind of reads you have on players whenever you have the time. Look at the thread temperature at that point. s0Lstice has been pushing for a HeavOnEarth lynch. alan, suki, miltonkram, and roflwaffles have all voted HeavOnEarth. sciberbia will surely vote HeavOnEarth. Now if miltonkram is mafia, he sees 5 votes on HeavOnEarth. The bandwaggon against him includes both scum AND s0Lstice/sciberbia. In what fantasy world is HeavOnEarth not getting lynched? If miltonkram is scum, he clearly already resigned himself to the fact that HeavOnEarth is getting lynched, seeing as both he and roflwaffles voted HeavOnEarth. So if miltonkram knows HeavOnEarth is getting lynched, and knows HeavOnEarth will flip scum, what on earth is the point of these 2 posts that don't make him look that great if HeavonEarth flips scum? Wouldn't he do better to look more committed to the lynch?
the NK of austinmcc+ Show Spoiler +
First of all, assuming golden flips VT (or scum), it's pretty obvious that we have no more blues >_<. Which means the last mafia is surely a goon. Having a roleblocker vs a mere vigilante & veteran is ridiculously overpowered. Additionally, nobody has been RB'd all game.
So killing austinmcc without even roleblocking him isn't nearly as much of a boon to mafia. They can't stop him shooting roflwaffles if he is vigi. And shooting a lynchable veteran is a terrible idea.
So I'm quite sure the NK of austinmcc was a suboptimal play. During N1, miltonkram would surely think he has some slim chance of winning the game as mafia, whereas suki would probably know she is dead. So I think suki is more likely to have made a suboptimal NK for the lulz or just some random reason not related to winning the game.
In favor of suki though, she was active all night, whereas miltonkram was gone. Seeing as blues we had both submitted their night actions in a timely manner, the scrambling of the mods was likely done for mafia's benefit. More likely to be because of miltonkram than suki.
Overall, I don't think this is great evidence for either one of them (suki/miltonkram) over the other.
If miltonkram is really scum, he played one hell of a D1. Honestly since D1, he hasn't acted quite as townie, but he seems to have been really busy, and here are a couple things in his favor.
His reasoning behind the breadcrumbing comment+ Show Spoiler +I see two possible reasons for his suggestion to get blues to breadcrumb at the end of N1: 1) He is town and thought this was a good idea 2) He is mafia and was desperately trying to find the (nonexistant >_<) cop When I asked him about his reasoning, he made this post" + Show Spoiler +On June 19 2012 03:53 Miltonkram wrote:
@ sciberbia
You had been commenting quite a bit on blue role play and I thought I needed to add my two cents. I was trying to figure out ways for us to get enough confirmed town players to make it impossible for scum to win. At first I was thinking about the possibility of confirming two townies if we had a jailkeeper. One would claim they were RB'd and the jailer would show us his/her breadcrumb. I thought of what could go wrong after I posted my advice. What if we had a scum RBer and they breadcrumbed their action and used this to become confirmed town? My mind kind of exploded then.
I was also thinking of confirming town players through a cop, but that would require this game not to be a setup with double godfathers. I find that a distinct possibility (if we have a cop) because I could see prplhz making a setup that is basically a "fuck you" to town players who rely too much on blue roles. Does this make sense? Basically my thoughts were chasing themselves around in circles and I didn't think all the possibilities through when I posted my breadcrumbing comment. I'm hoping everyone ignored it.
This strongly suggests to me that he is town. If a mafia miltonkram got called out on giving town bad advice, I'd expect some decent excuse. But here he shows some really in-depth thinking on the subject from a townie perspective. Reads quite townie to me.
the NK of alan+ Show Spoiler +
I've already talked about this a bit. I really think crossfire was a more sensible kill for miltonkram. If golden is mafia, I think he made a mistake by killing alan. He should have killed crossfire.
If the last mafia is suki/miltonkram, I have no doubt that they'd have some sort of plan for what went down today. Scum suki seems to have had a plan: kill alan --> get miltonkram lynched. Very straightforward.
But miltonkram not so much. First of all, he doesn't actually post until quite a bit of time has passed. This allows 2 votes to get thrown on him without much resistance. Then, he accuses golden moreso than suki.
I really don't think he'd have planned on lynching golden today. Leave sciberbia alive --> lynch golden doesn't seem like it would have been a solid plan.
OK that's about all I've got on miltonkram. The only thing I really don't like about him is that he has been kinda quiet since D1, and only given reads on lynch targets of the day. But he has been quite busy, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. He reads strongly town to me.
I'm going to be afk a couple hours, but I'll be here at the deadline tonight. Hopefully this whole post was a complete waste of time
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Basically what your post amounts to for me is that we win in about 1 hour and 7 minutes :OOO
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yea hopefully :D
Anyway I'm actually going out to play some tennis now, so I won't be at my computer for the flip. I'll check from my phone though. The anticipation is killing me.
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Votecount:
O.Golden_ne:
Miltonkram
suki
Crossfire99
sciberbia
Not voting:
O.Golden_ne
O.Golden_ne is currently getting lynched. Deadline is in like 45 minutes.
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
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Night4
O.Golden_ne the Vanilla Townie has been lynched by the angry mob and subsequently modkilled by the angry host.
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O.Golden_ne has been modkilled for not posting or voting on day4 and will face a post game punishment.
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God this game is driving me mad. Gonna go reread suki's filter again, but I don't see my mind changing. Goddamn it.
Does anyone think we shouldn't be discussing reads tonight? I think we should. Regardless of who is mafia, a universal town-read (me or crossfire) is guaranteed to die.
@crossfire
I think we have some serious decision-making to do tonight. If we can't agree by the dawn, it's gonna be hell analyzing the NK.
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OK yea I really don't see my mind changing. I know I was said this about unforgiven and was wrong, but I am pretty confident that suki is the last mafia.
@suki, @miltonkram
I assume you are most suspicious of each other? Can you let us know where your heads are at?
@crossfire
I feel pretty strongly that we should lynch suki rather than miltonkram tomorrow. I also feel pretty strongly that I'll be depressed for a week if we blow this game. So I'll spend the next 22 hours trying to convince you if I have to. If you don't agree with me by 8PM tomorrow, D5 is gonna be a crapshoot. Whichever one of us is left alive will have to guess whether the mafia would have killed the player accusing them or not. I guess I'll make a post about suki tonight.
@observers
My heart sank when I saw the double popcorn. Sorry about another mislynch, but at least the finish will be really dramatic. Unless crossfire is mafia. That would be extremely lame.
@mods, suki, miltonkram, crossfire
Can we shorten the day phase tomorrow after everyone has made up thier mind? I don't think I could stand waiting another 48 hours. And I feel like we'll all have decided our vote by a few hours into the day.
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oh one other thing that I found townie about miltonkram:
He accidentally voted HeavOnEarth instead of Unforgiven. I see this as evidence in his favor. If he were mafia, he'd subconsciously feel very different about the two players. Perhaps not so much if he is town and thinks Unforgiven is mafia.
I'm in the process of writing some stuff on suki.
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This is mostly for crossfire's benefit.
First of all, please reread previous cases on suki
If I've learned anything this game, it's that for whatever reason, I am better at scumhunting on D1 than post-D1. I think I actually had 2 out of 3 scum on D1 and the third on N1. Here is my first case on suki:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=344270¤tpage=8#151
Then s0Lstice accused suki during N1. I think s0Lstice actually had all three mafia by N1:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=344270¤tpage=15#283
My case on suki during D2:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=344270¤tpage=18#358
Crossfire also made a post on suki D2, but I don't think you need to be reminded of your own case.
I'm not going to restate all the D1 stuff. I think that's been beaten to death. I'll just talk about some other stuff since D1.
Really really bad reads
OK now I grant that the language of suki's filter (especially since D1) reads pretty townie. But in forum games, some people are just good at making their language seem townie. Judging by actions is usually better than judging by langauge. Let's look at what she has actually done in regards to pushing lynches:
+ Show Spoiler +
D1: pushes alan (a townie). defends HeavOnEarth(a mafia). Only votes HeavOnEarth after it likely doesn't matter
D2: pushes trackd00r hard (a townie)
D3: pushes unforgiven hard (a townie)
D4: pushes golden (a townie)
D5: probably pushes miltonkram (a probable townie)
How many times can somebody hurt town and not be mafia? It's no wonder we've mislynched 3 times in a row. We've been letting a a top suspect (suki) lead our lynches.
Everyone who has been NK'd was suspicious of suki+ Show Spoiler +
NK 1: austinmcc is suspicious of suki (maybe less so than golden, but still)]
NK 2: s0Lstice is quite suspicious of suki (but she could also use it to push unforgiven)
NK 3: alan is suspicious of suki. Why did alan not die earlier? He used to think suki was town.
NK 4: probably sciberbia
Everyone else's read on suki vs miltonkram+ Show Spoiler +
Crossfire, I understand you're personal read of suki has been pretty town. Maybe that'll change as you read through filters. But, if there was ever a time to listen to other people's reads, now is probably it. Here are the last thoughts of all known or assumed townies on suki:
austinmcc: suspicious of suki; no comment on milton
s0Lstice: suki 2nd most suspicious; milton reads town
trackd00r: no real comment on either
unforgiven: suki town; miltonkram mafia
alan: unsure on suki; not suspicious of miltonkram
golden: suki suspicious; no comment on miltonkram
sciberbia: suki mafia; miltonkram town
Only unforgiven finds miltonkram more suspicious. And several people are significantly more suspicious of suki than of miltonkram.
A few changes of tone+ Show Spoiler +The tone of suki's posts have changed a bit throughout the game. This is kinda indicative of a mafia because they try to be decietful. Here are some posts: + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 12:44 suki wrote:
Is it just me or is trackd00r coming off as scummy already?
...
BUT WAIT! Just ONE post previous to that he says this:
...
Dude. You try to take a firm stance against something, and then you do the most scummy wishy-washy-ness thing ever the very next post. You're clearly informed about mafia as you brought up the idea of a day 1 RNG lynch, and being against a no lynch is not a difficult or complicated policy to hold. I feel that such a simple logical slip only happens if you're trying to play it safe and keep your options open.
##vote trackd00r
On June 16 2012 05:50 suki wrote:
Did not contradict myself. I do not think I blundered.
I did not bounce around. I analysed the game and based on my judgement I focused my attention on the one person I believed was the most scum, and I didn't let off until I was convinced otherwise.
The only evidence against me is from viewing my actions from a biased point of view. I've played a strong town game, and you're trying to spin it like I'm playing a strong mafia game by playing a strong town game.
On June 17 2012 11:03 suki wrote:
Anyways, hum. I'm a little disappointed.
Firstly, I'm disappointed that nobody's commented on my case against trackd00r. I put a lot of time into it and I don't think my points are easily dismissed.
If find s0lstice's tunneling of me (and lack of comment on my defence) very strange. Maybe not suspicious, but strange.
I feel that I've been upfront for this whole game. I've stated my suspicions boldly, presented my cases clearly. I've been wrong, about alan and about HeavOn (the so called 'scummy' defense of HeavOn) but that's not a scummy thing in itself. I'm being targeted because I haven't been scared of making mistakes, of calling people out, of changing my vote to who I think is the most scummy. I spend a lot of time on analysing the person I think is most suspicious rather than making shallow analysis on everyone who I think could be suspicious..
...
Neither s0lstice nor sciberbia (who both pretty much have the same case against me) have given my defence any credit or really even a response. No one except alan has really posted their in-depth thoughts on trackd00r. And trackd00r still hasn't delivered any useful posts in his own defence.
I think I've gone through everything I need/want to say. On June 17 2012 13:28 suki wrote:
s0lstice, I think you did your job right and that if I really were scum, your pressure on me would be extremely effective. Don't feel bad for pushing me, that's what a good townie should do. Plus you can't be right ALL the time right? haha.
I take it as a huge compliment that you think I'd be up to playing such a risky/advanced level of scum. I have the unique perspective of having a town read on everybody (more or less), including myself, leaving the only likely suspect to be trackd00r. I also feel very strongly about my case on him (hence my disappointment that nobody's really commented on it), and his 'OOPS' post just confirms my suspicions.
@sciberbia
I just really have had bad luck and bad reads. I have to say, it feels pretty awful to put so much effort into hunting scum, only to keep missing. I'd love to go over my thoughts behind my moves this game, but I'll do that post-game so I don't clog up the thread when we really need to focus on lynching scum. On June 18 2012 12:56 suki wrote:
My outlook on the game post-lynch:
People will be taking a much closer look at me. It's to be expected, after the case that s0lstice and sciberbia brought up. I feel I pushed a good case on trackd00r and its frustrating that he wasn't able to defend himself adequately.
I once again went through all the players in the game. I think I am just going to accept the hard truth that I just blow at analysis.
...
In summary:
I am town. That's my only defence at this point. If you believe me, then I hope you'll take a really close look at alan's case on golden. If you don't believe me, then I still hope you'll take a really close look at alan's case on golden.
Going to bed soon but I'll keep up with the thread and post my thoughts. Just a little too burned out to do any sort of heavy analysis right now. On June 18 2012 15:09 suki wrote:
For those of you suspicious of me, one thing that you should note is that my play style had no fail safe in place when my reads eventually became wrong.
...
I may not have been good at hunting scum, but I was good at digging out the non-committal behaviour of blues, I guess. On June 19 2012 15:34 suki wrote:
I realize that I am bouncing around now. I think it has to do with just losing all faith in my own judgement, in addition to no one's really listening to me anyways. I still want to post my reads, still want to try to contribute my thoughts when people bring up cases. I still want to believe I can help push for a victory, instead of crawling into a hole and disappearing for the rest of the game because no one will believe me.
On June 21 2012 10:08 suki wrote:
This is my case against Miltonkram. Come daytime I will vote for him. I can't see sciberbia or crossfire as scum. I can't see HeavOnEarth pressuring a scum Golden the way he did. Milton is now the last and only suspect in my mind.
hmm I was expecting to find some better quotes. Maybe this section isn't the best evidence. You can decide for yourself.
Clear plan for scum suki on D4+ Show Spoiler +
I already talked about this a bit in my post on miltonkram. If suki is scum, I'd have expected her to have a plan for D4. I think her plan was to get miltonkram lynched by killing alan. And then kill sciberbia and WIFOM her way into getting golden lynched. AND if golden gets modkilled D4/D5, this works out brilliantly for her.
If this is true, I'd have expected her to be very reluctant to back off miltonkram. And this holds true. She makes some pretty faulty analysis on the NK, insisting that it makes sense for miltonkram where it really doesn't.
I could post more, but I think these are the major points. Especially reread the cases on her D1/N1 actions. The alan bandwaggon, faulty trackd00r case, and defense of HeavOnEarth all look scummy. Nothing really looks scummy about miltonkram, so I really think suki is mafia.
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is that you conceding as mafia?
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your laughter unnerves me...
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sciberbia, you make a really good case for Milton's defense. So good, that I actually believe you. Milton is definitely a townie, I can't argue with your points. Crossfire as well, is rocksolid townie.
So here we are.
There has been one thing bothering me for the entire game. Why am I still alive? After so much pressure against me from sciberbia, how is it that I haven't kicked the bucket yet?
Sciberbia has consistently put me as his top scum read. Yet he lets me slip through his fingers every time. First, he got distracted by trackd00r. Then, he tunnelled unforgiven. Finally, he somehow let us sway his impression of golden to make him vote for golden.
Here is my prediction. Crossfire will die tonight. Sciberbia will push me, and Milton will be forced to agree with you, and I'll be lynched.
Why will crossfire die tonight? Because sciberbia can't die, because he's the last scum. With this final mislynch he strikes a home run for mafia and takes home the gold.
My Case on Sciberbia
The posts where he votes for lynch targets
Trackdoor:+ Show Spoiler +
Since the NK of austinmcc, trackd00r has started to look a lot worse relative to suki.
I already talked about how the mod's blue text suggests to me that the mafia hadn't submitted their NK. And I think this would be more likely due to trackd00r than suki.
Also, suki has been very active and I just don't see why she would be putting in all this effort if she is scum. Maybe just to make us do 1 more mislynch? On the other hand, trackd00r has been pretty quiet since the day post.
In summary
I don't feel overly confident about either of suki's or trackd00r's cases individually. But they are definitely top 2 candidates on my list and I think both have a decent chance of being the last scum. I'm honestly not sure which I think is more likely the last mafia, but it seems suki has at least guilted us into lynching trackd00r first so...
##unvote
##Vote trackd00r
Unforgiven:+ Show Spoiler +
So, I am going to look past the circumstancial evidence, and conclude that I'm leaning town on suki
...
First of all, s0Lstice is a pretty smart dude. And he was townie. And now he's dead.
s0Lstice wasn't the perfect NK for mafia. He was a likely subject of protection from medic/jailkeeper. Additionally, he didn't look blue at all. Additionally, if unforgiven were hypothetically NOT mafia, having s0Lstice around for D3 would help to push another mislynch. So why did he die?
The NK of s0Lstice makes perfect sense if Unforgiven is mafia. Do you really think unforgiven would be able to avoid getting lynched today if s0Lstice were still in the game? I doubt it.
In conclusion, I think unforgiven is likely the last mafia.
##Vote unforgiven_ve
Golden:+ Show Spoiler +
Well it seems we are all agreement on lynching golden.
His filter reads kinda townie to me (barring when he claimed scum). I'm not buying too much into the comparison with previous games. Golden seemed generally mad, whether town or mafia. His line about the vigilante was definitely bad advice, not sure if it's scum-motivated though.
But town reads are relative at this point and I'd definitely rather lynch golden than miltonkram. Golden also fits with the NKs more than the other 2, especially for austinmcc and alan. Also, if you are going to consider D1 busses, suki or miltonkram on HeavOnEarth was more of a real (potential) bus than HeavOnEarth on golden. HeavOnEarth even kinda backed off of it of his own accord, which felt odd. Also, the whole thing about his "slip" where mafia is bussing him off and him flipping scum has to be counted against him.
Anyway, I'm not gonna waste too much time trying to convince 3 people already voting golden to vote golden. I really hope he flips scum tomorrow, and I think there's a pretty decent chance.
@Crossfire
If golden flips town, we have to decide whether to lynch suki or miltonkram. I just feel that suki has to be more likely mafia than miltonkram. I'd assume your not convinced of this? We should definitely talk about this during night phase if golden flips town, and maybe even before then since today's lynch is already pretty much decided. I'll probably make a post tomorrow detailing why I think miltonkram is the more likely town.
But for now, today's lynch is pretty much decided so I'm just going to sleep. 8 PM tomorrow can't come fast enough x_x
##Vote O.Golden_ne
Vote Timings:
He was 7th out of 12 to vote for HeavOnEarth
He was 6th out of 9 to vote for trackd00r
He was 1st out of 7 to vote for unforgiven.
He was 4th out of 5 to vote for golden.
Why this is relevant:
His vote on HeavOnEarth was made after HeavOn's lynch was pretty much decided. Basically he didn't want to bus HeavOn until the last moment.
His vote timing on HeavOnEarth is the most important out of the four, because after rofl dies, he can play a strong townie game. Therefore, I think it's very telling that he was so late to jump on HeavOnEarth.
His stance on me:
Day 1: + Show Spoiler +
Day 2:+ Show Spoiler +
I've gone through the case on suki, and I get the same feeling as s0Lstice; that suki is mafia and did a better job than last game of hiding it.
- s0lstice's name bolded for my own emphasis.
I haven't gone through the cases on trackd00r or golden yet, but I think its pretty likely suki is the last mafia, so
##Vote suki
In summary
-- suki and trackd00r are in my tier of top suspicion
-- I find suki more suspicious based on posts
-- I just realized that the whole NK business suggests trackd00r is mafia rather than suki
-- I'll study track00r more over the next 24 hours and post more thoughts
-- I think we will probably end up lynching both of them anyway (assuming we don't win today), so it's hardly likely to matter.
Since the NK of austinmcc, trackd00r has started to look a lot worse relative to suki.
- He analyses the NK and puts trackd00r as his top suspect.
Day 3:+ Show Spoiler +
IN SUMMARY
-- I am for lynching suki, and then miltonkram if she flips town
-- This isn't so much because miltonkram looks scummy, but that everyone else looks townie
-- I am obsessed with figuring out why austinmcc died, and I have a possible explanation
I just really don't see suki making this NK. I don't think the mafia coach would have suggested this NK to suki, and I highly doubt she would have proposed the idea on her own. Not only does it seem out of character to make such an odd choice of NK, but I think I am right in saying suki was being collectively viewed as one of the most suspicious people during N1.
...
I'm leaning town on suki
The thing I like most about this case is that the NK of austinmcc really fits here.
...
##Vote unforgiven_ve
Day 4:+ Show Spoiler +
would really like to lynch golden and then suki if golden filps town.
But town reads are relative at this point and I'd definitely rather lynch golden than miltonkram. Golden also fits with the NKs more than the other 2, especially for austinmcc and alan. Also, if you are going to consider D1 busses, suki or miltonkram on HeavOnEarth was more of a real (potential) bus than HeavOnEarth on golden. HeavOnEarth even kinda backed off of it of his own accord, which felt odd. Also, the whole thing about his "slip" where mafia is bussing him off and him flipping scum has to be counted against him.
Anyway, I'm not gonna waste too much time trying to convince 3 people already voting golden to vote golden.
- Why golden? Why is golden a better lynch target than me? His only point is that the NK makes more sense, that the heavonearth bus wasnt good, that he slipped saying 'scum' instead of 'town'. But how is that a better case than his case on me?
@Crossfire
If golden flips town, we have to decide whether to lynch suki or miltonkram. I just feel that suki has to be more likely mafia than miltonkram. I'd assume your not convinced of this?
I've already talked about this a bit. I really think crossfire was a more sensible kill for miltonkram. If golden is mafia, I think he made a mistake by killing alan. He should have killed crossfire.
If the last mafia is suki/miltonkram, I have no doubt that they'd have some sort of plan for what went down today. Scum suki seems to have had a plan: kill alan --> get miltonkram lynched. Very straightforward.
But miltonkram not so much. First of all, he doesn't actually post until quite a bit of time has passed. This allows 2 votes to get thrown on him without much resistance. Then, he accuses golden moreso than suki.
I really don't think he'd have planned on lynching golden today. Leave sciberbia alive --> lynch golden doesn't seem like it would have been a solid plan.
- He uses that specific day's NK to target me and discredit a scum Miltonkram case.
He jumps from viewing me as the most suspicious on Day 1, Day 2, to townie on Day 3 (solely because of NK's), to most suspicious on Day 4 and now Day 5.
The biggest question is, if I was really the most suspicious person to him, why wouldn't he hard press for me to get lynched? Why is his attention drawn away every single time?
Because he planned it that way.
Like he said, he really loves to analyse NK's. And his analysis of NK's has always pointed to a townie. He has used the NK's in trackd00r and unforgiven and golden's lynches to choose a less-suspicious looking candidate over me every time.
The simple explanation is this: He planned the NK's for this very reason. Sciberbia is using the NK's to direct the town's target as he pleases, while keeping me alive for the very last day as the 'least townie of all the remaining townies'.
Isn't it strange how we always seem to have a surefire mafia lynch, but every time we're disappointed? One of the biggest reasons we were so sure of unforgiven and golden was because the NK's didn't make sense if they weren't scum. Well, now we've reached the final stage of the game, and you know what? The lynches still don't make sense if I'm scum or if milton is scum. But sciberbia is willing to discard that to vote for 'the least townie of all the remaining townies'.
This is the blindfold that has been pulled over our eyes this entire game. The idea that the NK's had meaning and pointed to the last mafia. The reality is that the real meaning of the NK's is to direct the town to take itself out one by one.
The NK's all make sense when you view it from this perspective.
The final stage of the game
Here we are, the last remaining townies forced into a corner, with town reads on everybody, and the only option seemingly to go after the person who seems the least townie.
This is not how the game should end. The game should end by us finding who is the wolf in sheep's clothing.
Isn't it strange how sciberbia's impression of milton flip-flopped throughout the last few days? First, he thought milton didn't look scummy, but couldn't see why he couldn't be scum. Then, he was willing to lynch me followed by milton, who he figured was the most likely to be scum after me. Then, he thinks milton is probably town and targets unforgiven. Then he puts milton as his #1 town read above crossfire.
When sciberbia stated that milton looked most likely to be scum after me, that was after trackd00r died (D2). Now that we've reached the endgame, he thinks that:
If miltonkram is really scum, he played one hell of a D1. Honestly since D1, he hasn't acted quite as townie, but he seems to have been really busy...
Think of this from a scum sciberbia perspective. In the beginning he's keeping his options open to lynch Milton (by pointing out his play could possibly scummy). In the end, he wants to keep Milton on his side by saying Milton is 100% town. He's also put Crossfire as 100% town. Both Milton and Crossfire have a town read on me, but when sciberbia lays out the scenario like this, they have no choice but to reluctantly lynch me.
-
Summary
- Sciberbia was late to vote for HeavOnEarth.
- Sciberbia has had me as his most scummy read for the whole game but somehow always gets distracted by the NK's.
- Sciberbia has used NK's as reasons to attack or defend players, but now that he's at the end he simply gives up the analysis and decides to vote the least scummy townie.
- Sciberbia has painted Miltonkram as possibly scummy and also as his strongest town read, both due to Milton's day 1 play.
- The NK's have made sense for the current lynch target every day, and sciberbia is always happy to point it out. We miss, everyone feels horrible. Then suddenly someone else is most likely to have made those NK's.
The scum in Mafia XV won because town wouldn't analyse the NK's. In this game, the scum has almost won because town put so much emphasis on the NK's, not realizing that they've been lead astray the whole time.
-
Also note that sciberbia doesn't give any reason for voting for golden over me, EXCEPT due to his analysis of the NK's. Sciberbia had put golden on a town read for the whole game, but somehow he complacently let golden get lynched despite feeling I was the most suspicious.
-
Regarding sciberbia's insta-bus on rofl. I bet he looked at rofl's play and knew that s0lstice and other good players would inevitably pick up on the slips. Rather than let that happen, he decided to take massive town cred for the insta-bus. Note that prior to his incriminating post on rofl, he hadn't even commented on rofl's play at all.
I think it's also telling that rofl was relieved to have been shot by alan. It means if sciberbia put that plan forward to bus rofl, rofl would have happily accepted.
----
Alan's case on sciberbia:
@sciberbia - Could it be he, the mastermind behind everything?
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15162490
I am not trying to take credit, but I did posted roflwaffle as my prime suspect before I wrote an entire post in it, and it was before sciberbia's case on rolf. Perhaps Sciberbia noticed the slip made by rolfwaffle, and sees that he generated a lot of suspicious around him? s0Lstice did say he has a good idea who is the 2nd scum is.
Sciberbia's supposedly bandwagony actions
He jumped on suki's case in day 2 after s0Lstice, arguing that trackd00r or suki is probably scums because confirmed scums did not attack them. Please keep in mind sciberbia was also in this category. He goes by saying did not contribute much to the lynching of both scums. Before the rolf post, has he really committed to any scum hunting?
Switching from Suki to Unforgiven_ve
If sciberbia is the last mafia, he could be doing this to buy more time to get another mislynch, with a dead guy supporting him.
----
Interesting note. If you look at the Day 1 sequence of events, Sciberbia posts his last post 6 hours before the night ends. During those six hours is when the mods were asking for night actions to be turned in. He shows up just barely before the night ends.
In other words, the reasoning that he used through the whole game about Night actions not being turned in until late during the night can also be applied to him, because he wasn't around during the time that the mods were asking for night actions.
----
Also remember that unforgiven called out sciberbia for uncharacteristic tunneling
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15161837
You are overeager to show your "scum hunting" skills, you are trying to take (and have succeded so far) town leadership, you remember me of the guys who won the last game i played, people fell for it, people didnt want to REALLY analyze the way he was playing.
Theres 2 option for the last mafia to do:
1.- Always be under the radar and try to not gain any enemies and always look like you are in the same sintony as town
and
2.- Be aggresive, take town leadership, point fingers to people who cant convince the town (for different reasons, posting, lurking, difficulty to express ideas)
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15168782
+ Show Spoiler +
My last attempt will be this, going against my own belives and seeing you are blindly reading and using past games, i will show you what a mafia posted in NMM XV
On May 31 2012 17:31 Xatalos wrote:
blah -
As things stand, I'm ready to go for a Unforgiven_ve lynch. However, I want to see your response first, Unforgiven_ve. You better impress with your next post or your filter looks really bad already.
On May 31 2012 23:43 Xatalos wrote:
blah
Finally you posted something, but it's not what I was hoping for from a town Unforgiven_ve. More like what I expected from a Mafia Unforgiven_ve.
This response convinced me. It's time to get the ball rolling.
AHEM
On June 20 2012 11:41 sciberbia wrote:
Unforgiven's response didn't do anything for me. I'm not surprised, because my primary points of accusation are points that you cannot easily explain away. He has a lot of text, but doesn't say many things of substance. To summarize his post:
On June 20 2012 14:48 sciberbia wrote:
I was really unimpressed by Unforgiven's case on miltonkram. Here are my thoughts:
bleh-
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15165897
The agressiveness coming from sciberbia and his "stubbornness" SCREAMS desperate mafia, i bet you he will go for suki then, now that suki's case is fogotten it will be his card up his slevee,
----
If sciberbia truly were town, he'd have pressed my case and not used the NK's time and time again to discredit me being scum. After all, NK's can be done for WIFOM reasons, right? Yet somehow he puts full confidence in the NK analysis, and he has no reason not to because town is grasping at straws for the most plausible scum and the NK reasoning makes perfect sense.
This is my case against sciberbia. Have a good long look and see if you believe me when I say that he's been the town puppetmaster this whole time.
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according to the internets, "bahaha" is an evil laugh.
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Ok I'm here and all I have to say is that this game is just ridiculous. Now it looks like I got some reading to do...
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well suki, this is definitely a twist. I'm actually going to be playing monobattles for the next couple hours, but I'll post some defense before I go to bed. I already see a couple of points in your case that are really non-points. Also, I'll think about whether your accusation of me changes my stance on you, but I really don't think it does.
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I'm just going to sleep on everything right now. I'll be back before the deadline tomorrow.
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May I also revisit Miltonkram's point that after 2/3 of the mafia are dead, the last remaining scum just has to play a strong town game. They have no one left to protect.
If you view it that way, the day 1 and night 1 actions of all the players here are very important, because thats the only time that the 3rd scum had teammates to protect/deal with.
sciberbia was one of the last to vote for heavon. And he didn't talk about rofl at ALL in the first day, prior to his big bus of rofl at the beginning of N1.
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There will be no day shortening.
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Well, here's my defense of suki's accusation. Sorry if it sounds a bit irritated/impatient - I don't mean to be rude. But the thought of losing this game by getting mislynched on the last day really irritates me.
Accusation that my vote on HeavOnEarth was late+ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 17:27 sciberbia wrote:
Yikes only 16 hours until the deadline and I'll be sleeping/working during most of that. I'm really tired and going to sleep now. Won't be super active again until about 1.5 hours before the deadline, but I'll try to keep up with the thread from work.
It is really important that everyone gives their opinions on lynch candidates. If you'd be happy to vote for someone, say so!
Personally, I'd like to vote for suki, crossfire, or HeavOnEarth. I have no read on MJ or golden. I would not like to lynch alan. Here, I clearly state the three people that I think would make good lynches. I am the second person to deem HeavOnEarth suspicious. I was not overly confident about any of the three, though, as I believe I have said before. Naturally, I don't cast my vote yet. I also explain that I will be at work and not super active until 1.5 hours before the deadline. I work from about 11AM to 6PM EDT on weekdays. If you look throughout this entire game, I'm pretty sure I haven't made any substancial posts from work. Sorry, but I'm busy. I think it makes perfect sense not to cast my vote until I get back from work. On June 15 2012 03:41 sciberbia wrote:
@austinmcc
Sorry but as I've said, I'm busy and won't be able to post much for the next few hours. The thread will have my full attention for the last hour and a half before the deadline, and I'll help organize the lynch.
@all
Crossfire has drawn suspicions of several people, and now he has finally posted both a substantial post and defense. Getting fresh opinions on him is important right now. Please share your opinion on him if you haven't already, and update your opinion if it has changed as a result of his defense. Here I explain that I'm at work and can't really post until I get back. I also ask for opinions on Crossfire. At this point, HeavOnEarth only had one vote (s0Lstice). Crossfire was under some heat from various players, and we needed opinions on him. I didn't have time to really think about his defense from work and make up my own mind, so I didn't post any of my own thoughts on it. The landslide of votes (alan,suki,miltonkram,roflwaffles) happened around 4pm or 5pm. + Show Spoiler +On June 15 2012 07:04 sciberbia wrote:
Lynch Candidates based on everyone's stated convictions
HeavOnEarth
interested in lynching(8): suki, me, s0lstice, roflwaffle, milton, alan, austin, golden
no comment(3): trackd00r, crossfire, MJ
Many people want to lynch him and nobody is actually defending him at the moment. There is much less consensus on the other candidates (see below).
Crossfire
interested in lynching(5): me, austin, trackd00r, milton, heavOnEarth
not convinced(4): s0lstice, golden, alan, suki
no comment(2): MJ, roflwaffles
Some people find him suspicious. Others remain unconvinced. I don't think it makes sense to lynch him over HeavOnEarth because some people actually don't find him suspicious.
Mouldy Jeb
The argument for lynching him is extreme lurking and unhelpfulness. I'm not against lynching lurkers if we don't have any good lynch candidates. But in this case we do: most people find HeavOnEarth scummy. In addition, we get little information from MJ's flip, whereas we get quite a bit from heavOnEarth.
golden
I haven't gone through the filter, but I just don't get the feeling that there is enough suspicion on him to warrant a lynch over HeavOnEarth.
IN SUMMARY
HeavOnEarth seems like the consensus lynch target. Personally, I think he has a good chance of flipping red. I'll detail my thoughts on him in a subsequent post. Overall, seems like the sensible player to lynch.
@heavOnEarth
It looks likely that you will be lynched today. Please post a defense and more importantly give as many reads as you can.
@trackd00r, crossfire, MJ
Please post your opinion on HeavOnEarth as soon as possible. It's important that everyone weighs in on the lynch candidates, especially the one that looks most likely to be lynched. I think I left work an hour early that day because I knew we'd need time before the lynch. I spent some time assembling the above post, which makes it pretty clear that HeavOnEarth is the consensus target. I asked for opinions on HeavOnEarth because you always want to hear everyone's opinion on whoever gets lynched before they flip. I also ask HeavOnEarth to give as many reads as he can. This is certainly in town's best interest. Honestly, the main way I was expecting it to help is if he flipped mafia, maybe we could get some information from his "reads". After making this post, I took some time to catch up on posts. I studied through HeavOnEarth's filter. I decided that I thought he was a good lynch, so I stated my reasoning, and voted him. IN CONCLUSION I think my D1 actions were perfectly reasonable. If I had been closely following the thread closely the whole day, I probably would have voted HeavOnEarth sooner. But I think I did a lot to contribute to getting him lynched. First of all, I did a lot to slow the bandwaggon on someone I correctly read as townie (alan). Then, I listed HeavOnEarth as one of the three people I'd like to vote for. Then when I got back from work, I really studied his filter (especially his latest posts) which convinced me he was a good lynch, so I voted him. I don't think the argument of "sciberbia was just trying not to have to bus HeavOnEarth" really makes sense. HeavOnEarth wasn't my primary lynch target. I listed three people I'd be happy lynching. Obviously, we need a majority, and not everyone can have their top pick. Once it became clear that HeavOnEarth was a consensus choice, I voted him as I said I would. It's not like HeavOnEarth was my top target all along and I was just delaying a vote on him for no reason.
My plan was to have my attention drawn away from you (suki) every time?+ Show Spoiler +
I really don't see the merit in that mafia plan. I've never heard of the mafia strategy to consistently find one player suspicious but never lynch them. If I were mafia, I could've just NK'd people like unforgiven, alan, and crossfire, and I really don't think I'd get lynched. It'd come down to something like me/s0Lstice/golden/miltonkram/austinmcc. Do you really see me getting lynched there? The plan of intentionally not lynching a scummy person to save them for the last day just seems kinda random and pointless.
Besides, on both D2 and D4, I would have lynched you if it was all up to me and nobody else gave their opinion.
On D2, I thought the cases agaisnt you (mainly mine and s0Lstice's) were quite good. I voted you. Everybody else voted trackd00r. What do you want me to have done? Shout at everyone else that we should be lynching you? I thought trackd00r also had a good chance at being the last mafia, so I switched my vote to him at the end. I had already made my case against you, and everyone else (s0Lstice included) wanted to lynch trackd00r. I don't see how my actions here are suspicious.
On D3, I made a bad call on unforgiven. I liked s0Lstice's case on him. Sorry - it was just a bad read. Also, I didn't change my opinion on you just based on the NK. As I clearly stated (although you cut it out of the quote), your posting since N1 gave me a very townie feel: not giving up, continuing to scumhunt in the face of your death, etc. I've mentioned this multiple times by now.
On D4, it was very clear to me that we could lynch 2 out of 3: suki, miltonkram, golden. After a LOT of thinking, I concluded that miltonkram was my surest town read. Honestly, if I had to pick only one person to lynch for the rest of the game, it would probably have been you. But that wasn't the scenario: we get to lynch 2 out of 3. I wanted to lynch you and golden. Nowhere did I say that I found golden more suspicious than suki. I just said I want to lynch golden and then suki if golden flips green. I didn't really find golden that scummy. As I said, everyone looked town to me. But miltonkram looked the most town. I don't know what was to be gained by trying to convince everyone to switch their votes to you.
Now on D5, I find you most suspicious again by process of elimination. I've already detailed my strong town-read on miltonkram. I have never ever thought crossfire was mafia. And there are a few things in your filter that are suspicious, especially D1/N1. So I'm pretty confident that it's you.
Accusation about manipulating NK analysis+ Show Spoiler +
Again, it seems like you are drawing pretty grand conclusions about complicated mafia schemes that are kinda unnecessary. I really don't know why austinmcc died but I certainly wouldn't have NK'd him. And I didn't use his death to push trackd00r. I was pushing you until everyone else voted trackd00r. Go look at how the D2 mislynch went down.
On D3, the fact that s0Lstice died wasn't like the primary point in my suspicions against unforgiven. Go reread my post. It was the last, minor point.
Besides, I probably would have killed alan on D3 if I were mafia. I've kinda had the feeling ever since the trackd00r lynch that we only have a vigi and vet. Look through NMM mafia archives. We're lucky if we have a medic and a bunch of VT's. Personally, I think this is a bit of a rip-off, but that's besides the point. I would probably have killed a confirmed townie that is suspicious of me over a probable townie that is very defensive of me and would push a mislynch on unforgiven the next day. I really don't see why I would have killed s0Lstice over alan.
On D4, my analysis of the NK of alan led to decent evidence in favor of miltonkram. You're saying that I NK'd alan so I had an excuse to defend miltonkram? I didn't use the NK of alan to push golden.
In summary, you're saying that scum sciberbia's plan was to use NK's to push mislynches. But in reality I hardly do that at all. On D2 I push you until literally everyone else votes trackd00r and I just comment that the NK fits better with trackd00r. On D3, the NK was only a small part of my case. And on D4, the death of alan only made me think miltoknram is town.
+ Show Spoiler +On June 24 2012 12:42 suki wrote:
Isn't it strange how we always seem to have a surefire mafia lynch, but every time we're disappointed? One of the biggest reasons we were so sure of unforgiven and golden was because the NK's didn't make sense if they weren't scum. Well, now we've reached the final stage of the game, and you know what? The lynches still don't make sense if I'm scum or if milton is scum. But sciberbia is willing to discard that to vote for 'the least townie of all the remaining townies'.
I think this is quite an exaggeration. A surefire mafia lynch? I don't know about you, but the only lynch I've felt really good about was unforgiven. You can read my post before we lynch trackd00r where I clearly am not sure he is scum. Also, I don't want to speak for everyone, but I don't think any of us were that sure about golden. The NK's have been generally considered as minor, possibly reliable pieces of evidence, as they should be. You're really overexaggerating the weight we've been putting on NKs. As far as me now being willing to discard the ONE night kill that doesn't make a lot of sense if you (suki) are scum, what would you rather have me do? Vote to NL just because I don't see why any of the remaining players would have killed austinmcc? The NK of austinmcc doesn't make a lot of sense regardless of who the last scum is.
Your accusation of me "flip-flopping" on miltonkram+ Show Spoiler +On June 24 2012 12:42 suki wrote:Isn't it strange how sciberbia's impression of milton flip-flopped throughout the last few days? First, he thought milton didn't look scummy, but couldn't see why he couldn't be scum. Then, he was willing to lynch me followed by milton, who he figured was the most likely to be scum after me. Then, he thinks milton is probably town and targets unforgiven. Then he puts milton as his #1 town read above crossfire When sciberbia stated that milton looked most likely to be scum after me, that was after trackd00r died (D2). Now that we've reached the endgame, he thinks that: Show nested quote +If miltonkram is really scum, he played one hell of a D1. Honestly since D1, he hasn't acted quite as townie, but he seems to have been really busy... Think of this from a scum sciberbia perspective. In the beginning he's keeping his options open to lynch Milton (by pointing out his play could possibly scummy). In the end, he wants to keep Milton on his side by saying Milton is 100% town. He's also put Crossfire as 100% town. Both Milton and Crossfire have a town read on me, but when sciberbia lays out the scenario like this, they have no choice but to reluctantly lynch me. This is really a non-point. I've been pretty consistent about miltonkram. First, I thought he didn't look scummy, but didn't see why he couldn't be scum. Yes. Both you and s0Lstice agreed with me on this. Next, I was willing to lynch you followed by miltonkram. Yes this follows directly from the previous statement. Everyone else looked more definite-town to me than miltonkram. Targetting unforgiven was, as I've said, a bad call. I thought he was mafia but he wasn't. Not really anything else to say here. I never put milton as my #1 town read above crossfire. I said, "Miltonkram is my surest town read of the three. And Crossfire is still out of the question." I don't think I've voiced suspicions on crossfire since D1. I did change my read on miltonkram a bit during D4. As I said, I spent hours reading filters and really thinking hard about miltonkram/suki/golden. This was much more time than I had spent on miltonkram before. I came up with some new really good reasons why he is probably town. Two of these reasons were based on things after my initial thoughts on him, so doesn't it make sense that my read would change? I detailed the reasoning behind my strong town-read of him today. Lastly, how does scum sciberbia benefit from hard-defending miltonkram? I really don't get this. If I was mafia, I wouldn't care which of suki/miltonkram was lynched on the last day. I'd probably just say that I find suki a bit more suspicious. Before this huge accusation of yours, everyone had me as a strong town-read. What does a scum sciberbia have to gain by trying to convince crossfire that miltonkram is town? Really doesn't make sense. The town motivation is clearly much stronger.
Me voting for golden+ Show Spoiler +
I've already talked about this a bit. I wanted to lynch you and golden, as I said. I never said golden was more suspicious. The order of lynching isn't really important. If I was able to convince crossfire to vote suki over miltonkram yesterday, surely I'd be able to do it today too. I really don't see what town lost by lynching golden yesterday. He was a top target of suki/miltonkram/crossfire (i think) and was #2 for me. And he was getting modkilled yesterday. To win the game (assuming suki is mafia), I have to / had to convince crossfire that suki is more suspicious than miltonkram. This remains the case D5.
"Bus" on roflwaffles+ Show Spoiler +On June 24 2012 12:42 suki wrote:
Regarding sciberbia's insta-bus on rofl. I bet he looked at rofl's play and knew that s0lstice and other good players would inevitably pick up on the slips. Rather than let that happen, he decided to take massive town cred for the insta-bus. Note that prior to his incriminating post on rofl, he hadn't even commented on rofl's play at all.
I think it's also telling that rofl was relieved to have been shot by alan. It means if sciberbia put that plan forward to bus rofl, rofl would have happily accepted
This is also quite a non-point. rofl's last two big posts of D1 were really scummy. The one where he voted in particular. The thought actually crossed my mind to suggest dropping HeavOnEarth and just to lynch roflwaffles. But I don't think that was a practical course of action. I already talked about my day D1. After the lynch, I spent a lot of time going through the massive amount of D1 posts and making notes. roflwaffles looked really scummy, so I made a giant case on him. You accuse me of not talking about rofl's play at all prior to that case. Well, he didn't look really scummy until the end of D1, as I've said. I had no reason to comment on his play before that. I'm sure there were several people I didn't comment on D1. Off the top of my head, I don't think I touched on austinmcc, s0Lstice, roflwaffles, miltonkram, MJ, or golden. IIRC, s0Lstice didn't comment on roflwaffle's play D1 either but was also confident roflwaffles was scum. I don't see how this suspicious. Also, "it's quite telling that rofl was relieved to have been shot by alan"? Uhh I really think you are stretching here. If I were mafia and thought bussing roflwaffles was the best option, I don't think I'd need his approval.
you say that I was missing during N1?+ Show Spoiler +On June 24 2012 12:42 suki wrote:
Interesting note. If you look at the Day 1 sequence of events, Sciberbia posts his last post 6 hours before the night ends. During those six hours is when the mods were asking for night actions to be turned in. He shows up just barely before the night ends.
In other words, the reasoning that he used through the whole game about Night actions not being turned in until late during the night can also be applied to him, because he wasn't around during the time that the mods were asking for night actions.
Didn't alan say I was really active during N1? So wouldn't that mean that I wouldn't have had the mods worried that scum sciberbia wouldn't submit the NK? I was following the thread from work, as usual. If I was mafia, I could've easily submitted the NK from work. It wasn't like I was completely gone. After work, I played tennis. And I only got back to my home computer half hour before the deadline, as I said in my post. I read through some cases and made a small post with a couple of tentative reads on the off-chance I was NK'd.
Alright, I think I've covered everything. Sorry for the length, but not getting mislynched is pretty important, and it's pretty easy to write pages about things I know to be true.
If anyone wants further explanation on anything, please ask.
@suki
I'd be interested to hear if your opinion on me has changed at all as a result of this post.
As I've been typing this post, I've instinctively felt even more sure that suki is mafia as a result of her accusing me. I'm gonna go take a snack break and objectively think about what her accusation says about her alignment.
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Instictively, suki's accusation of me makes me really sure about her being mafia. First of all, it is yet another "bad read" on her part. Second, I'm really surprised by the confidence in her accusation. It's not just "maybe we should consider the possibility that sciberbia is mafia". She goes from -60 to 60 on me after the mislynch of golden. Also, maybe I'm biased, but a few things in her case seem like exaggerations or just quite a stretch.
But objectively, from the perspective of scum suki, here is the question:
+ Show Spoiler +
what is more likely?
(a) that miltonkram will vote sciberbia over suki
(b) or that crossfire will vote miltonkram over suki
Honestly (b) seems more likely to me . I was expecting scum suki to bank on crossfire not being convinced by me. And then she could either NK me and hope crossfire wouldn't change his mind, or NK crossfire and hope I WIFOM myself into voting miltonkram.
I thought my defense of miltonkram was pretty good, but just yesterday crossfire was suspicious of miltonkram to the point of voting him, and still not suspicious of suki. If I had had to bet, I think I would've bet crossfire would reluctantly agree with me to lynch suki, but I'm really not sure.
So does she really think miltonkram would vote me over her on the last day? Again I may be biased, but I don't think miltonkram would.
So why would scum suki decide to accuse me and NK crossfire rather than accuse miltonkram and randomize the NK between me/crossfire? I guess it's possible that she judged the likeliness of (a) and (b) differently than me.
I just realized something else. She could NK miltonkram tomorrow if crossfire buys into her case on me. So she really only needs to convince EITHER miltonkram OR crossfire to vote me, and she can WIFOM her way to a win.
ACTUALLY, I just realized something else. If nobody buys her case on sciberbia, she can still NK me and (maybe) get crossfire to lynch miltonkram? Hmm but miltonkram surely wouldn't NK me in that situation so I don't think crossfire would buy it. Goddamn this is confusing.
From the perspective of town suki, here is the question:
+ Show Spoiler +
what is more likely:
(a) sciberbia is mafia and suki can convince miltonkram/crossfire to vote him if crossfire/miltonkram dies
(b) miltonkram is mafia and suki can convince crossfire/sciberbia to vote him if sciberbia/crossfire dies
Well, considering that just yesterday she was deadset on lynching miltonkram, and was repeatedly saying how I am surely town, (b) seems more likely. Unless she really, really liked my (her accused scum) defense of miltonkram. (b) just seems more likely. The entire game she has been insisting I am town, but she "liked the idea of miltonkram being mafia". So I'd find this a surprising move from a townie suki as well.
Overall, I think that a townie suki pulling this move is less likely than a scum suki. Read her filter front to back. Does she really think I am mafia all of a sudden? I don't think so.
I think it's more likely that she is mafia and for whatever reason judged that crossfire would vote her in the end, so decided to explore other options. Now she can NK miltonkram or crossfire depending on how they respond to her case. I guess she could also still NK me, but I think crossfire would see that she has to be mafia in that case.
one more thing in favor of suki being mafia+ Show Spoiler +
I meant to say this yesterday: at this point the last scum benefits greatly from lynching anybody besides themself. It is typical of the final scum to throw suspicion on anyone possible. This is not true of townies who only benefit from lynching the one scum. Who has been the most bloodthirsty D4/D5? Suki has been totally down with voting miltonkram, golden, and now me. Miltonkram wasn't too sure about suki/golden on D4, and thinks me and crossfire are town. This was another thing that made me think he is town.
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It's really interesting how you have such a dramatic shift in tone now that I've accused you.
I think you're irritated because you're so close to pulling off a mafia win that you can't believe I'd switch cases from Milton to you on the very last day.
Here's my question to Crossfire and Milton. Do you guys want me to defend myself? If you have any questions about my playstyle and actions I will be happy to answer them. However, I don't feel obligated to answer questions from sciberbia.
Second, the entire game you both have read me as town, despite the insane amount of pressure and analysing that was done on me. When has sciberbia ever been analysed? When has he ever been pressured? This is the first time, and he's really irritated by it.
Here is the way I see it. Scum sciberbia only has to clear one out of two of the last remaining town after this last night kill. Now that its reached the last day, he's suddenly insanely sure that Milton is town, and suddenly insanely sure that I'm the last mafia. He posted such a great defense of Milton that I have to concede that he's right. The funny thing is that he's left me with no other option but to analyse his play.
I haven't looked at sciberbia's defense of my points but I will do so shortly over breakfast.
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sciberbia, I concede. Your defense is very good. Some points that I like:
1. Keeping me around doesn't make much sense. You'd be better off just shooting me and having lurkers at the end of the game.
2. You didn't push mislynches, except on unforgiven.
3. scum sciberbia really doesn't benefit from hard defending milton. If it's a crapshoot between me and milton on the last day then that's the best scenario for sciberbia. On the other hand, if you hard defend milton I have no choice but to go after you.
4. lynching golden then me is a decent town plan if you think both of us have a chance to flip scum. My only issue with this plan is that I'm town.
sciberbia, what am I to do then?
You've singled me out as the only possible scum left, but I'm not. I've pushed hard cases on both you and milton and you've deflected both of them with ease. If you're scum, you're brilliant. If you're town, you're going to be really upset at yourself at the end of the game, because you've painted me in a corner that I can't get out of.
I think I'll have to defend the accusations against me, and then try to dismantle your case against Milton.
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Here is my defense of sciberbia's case against me. Bolded parts are my defense.
On June 24 2012 12:28 sciberbia wrote:This is mostly for crossfire's benefit. First of all, please reread previous cases on sukiIf I've learned anything this game, it's that for whatever reason, I am better at scumhunting on D1 than post-D1. I think I actually had 2 out of 3 scum on D1 and the third on N1. Here is my first case on suki: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=344270¤tpage=8#151Then s0Lstice accused suki during N1. I think s0Lstice actually had all three mafia by N1: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=344270¤tpage=15#283
---
I already defended myself earlier in the thread.
---My case on suki during D2: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=344270¤tpage=18#358
---
Mostly a rehash of stuff s0lstice pointed out, but if there are specific points you'd like clarification on, ask away.
---
Crossfire also made a post on suki D2, but I don't think you need to be reminded of your own case. I'm not going to restate all the D1 stuff. I think that's been beaten to death. I'll just talk about some other stuff since D1. Really really bad readsOK now I grant that the language of suki's filter (especially since D1) reads pretty townie. But in forum games, some people are just good at making their language seem townie. Judging by actions is usually better than judging by langauge. Let's look at what she has actually done in regards to pushing lynches: + Show Spoiler +
D1: pushes alan (a townie). defends HeavOnEarth(a mafia). Only votes HeavOnEarth after it likely doesn't matter
D2: pushes trackd00r hard (a townie)
D3: pushes unforgiven hard (a townie)
D4: pushes golden (a townie)
D5: probably pushes miltonkram (a probable townie)
How many times can somebody hurt town and not be mafia? It's no wonder we've mislynched 3 times in a row. We've been letting a a top suspect (suki) lead our lynches. ---
Suki: I'm sorry if I pushed the wrong people. I'm town and I get things wrong. In my defense, my attacks provoke defenses or pro-town behaviour. It's unfortunate that we had so many lurkers.
From a scum point of view, what would be the point in pushing all these mislynches? Wouldn't I be better off following everyone else and sort of pushing this and that person? I've been the most active scum-hunting person in the thread, and I don't think that's inherently a bad way to play.
---Everyone who has been NK'd was suspicious of suki+ Show Spoiler +
NK 1: austinmcc is suspicious of suki (maybe less so than golden, but still)]
NK 2: s0Lstice is quite suspicious of suki (but she could also use it to push unforgiven)
NK 3: alan is suspicious of suki. Why did alan not die earlier? He used to think suki was town.
NK 4: probably sciberbia
Coincidence. Also, the NK's don't make sense. If I wanted to make my life easier I'd have killed sciberbia earlier on - look at all the pressure he's putting on me. And he's been doing this since Day 1. Don't you think if I wanted to take town leadership, I'd have made life a LOT easier on myself and just gotten rid of him? Same with austin. Doesn't make sense. Alan also was flip-flopping his read on me, as opposed to sciberbia who was convinced. Why not sciberbia instead of alan?
---
Everyone else's read on suki vs miltonkram + Show Spoiler +
Crossfire, I understand you're personal read of suki has been pretty town. Maybe that'll change as you read through filters. But, if there was ever a time to listen to other people's reads, now is probably it. Here are the last thoughts of all known or assumed townies on suki:
austinmcc: suspicious of suki; no comment on milton
s0Lstice: suki 2nd most suspicious; milton reads town
trackd00r: no real comment on either
unforgiven: suki town; miltonkram mafia
alan: unsure on suki; not suspicious of miltonkram
golden: suki suspicious; no comment on miltonkram
sciberbia: suki mafia; miltonkram town
Only unforgiven finds miltonkram more suspicious. And several people are significantly more suspicious of suki than of miltonkram.
---
In mafia XV, Cattavik/Vivax was targetted for lynch because he was the most active poster. He made a bad read and town jumped on him for tunneling. Of course, he turned out green.
Scum have two general options at their disposal. One, stay out of the spotlight as much as possible. Two, take town leadership and direct town by looking super townie. I've done neither.
---
A few changes of tone + Show Spoiler +The tone of suki's posts have changed a bit throughout the game. This is kinda indicative of a mafia because they try to be decietful. Here are some posts: + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 12:44 suki wrote:
Is it just me or is trackd00r coming off as scummy already?
...
BUT WAIT! Just ONE post previous to that he says this:
...
Dude. You try to take a firm stance against something, and then you do the most scummy wishy-washy-ness thing ever the very next post. You're clearly informed about mafia as you brought up the idea of a day 1 RNG lynch, and being against a no lynch is not a difficult or complicated policy to hold. I feel that such a simple logical slip only happens if you're trying to play it safe and keep your options open.
##vote trackd00r
On June 16 2012 05:50 suki wrote:
Did not contradict myself. I do not think I blundered.
I did not bounce around. I analysed the game and based on my judgement I focused my attention on the one person I believed was the most scum, and I didn't let off until I was convinced otherwise.
The only evidence against me is from viewing my actions from a biased point of view. I've played a strong town game, and you're trying to spin it like I'm playing a strong mafia game by playing a strong town game.
On June 17 2012 11:03 suki wrote:
Anyways, hum. I'm a little disappointed.
Firstly, I'm disappointed that nobody's commented on my case against trackd00r. I put a lot of time into it and I don't think my points are easily dismissed.
If find s0lstice's tunneling of me (and lack of comment on my defence) very strange. Maybe not suspicious, but strange.
I feel that I've been upfront for this whole game. I've stated my suspicions boldly, presented my cases clearly. I've been wrong, about alan and about HeavOn (the so called 'scummy' defense of HeavOn) but that's not a scummy thing in itself. I'm being targeted because I haven't been scared of making mistakes, of calling people out, of changing my vote to who I think is the most scummy. I spend a lot of time on analysing the person I think is most suspicious rather than making shallow analysis on everyone who I think could be suspicious..
...
Neither s0lstice nor sciberbia (who both pretty much have the same case against me) have given my defence any credit or really even a response. No one except alan has really posted their in-depth thoughts on trackd00r. And trackd00r still hasn't delivered any useful posts in his own defence.
I think I've gone through everything I need/want to say. On June 17 2012 13:28 suki wrote:
s0lstice, I think you did your job right and that if I really were scum, your pressure on me would be extremely effective. Don't feel bad for pushing me, that's what a good townie should do. Plus you can't be right ALL the time right? haha.
I take it as a huge compliment that you think I'd be up to playing such a risky/advanced level of scum. I have the unique perspective of having a town read on everybody (more or less), including myself, leaving the only likely suspect to be trackd00r. I also feel very strongly about my case on him (hence my disappointment that nobody's really commented on it), and his 'OOPS' post just confirms my suspicions.
@sciberbia
I just really have had bad luck and bad reads. I have to say, it feels pretty awful to put so much effort into hunting scum, only to keep missing. I'd love to go over my thoughts behind my moves this game, but I'll do that post-game so I don't clog up the thread when we really need to focus on lynching scum. On June 18 2012 12:56 suki wrote:
My outlook on the game post-lynch:
People will be taking a much closer look at me. It's to be expected, after the case that s0lstice and sciberbia brought up. I feel I pushed a good case on trackd00r and its frustrating that he wasn't able to defend himself adequately.
I once again went through all the players in the game. I think I am just going to accept the hard truth that I just blow at analysis.
...
In summary:
I am town. That's my only defence at this point. If you believe me, then I hope you'll take a really close look at alan's case on golden. If you don't believe me, then I still hope you'll take a really close look at alan's case on golden.
Going to bed soon but I'll keep up with the thread and post my thoughts. Just a little too burned out to do any sort of heavy analysis right now. On June 18 2012 15:09 suki wrote:
For those of you suspicious of me, one thing that you should note is that my play style had no fail safe in place when my reads eventually became wrong.
...
I may not have been good at hunting scum, but I was good at digging out the non-committal behaviour of blues, I guess. On June 19 2012 15:34 suki wrote:
I realize that I am bouncing around now. I think it has to do with just losing all faith in my own judgement, in addition to no one's really listening to me anyways. I still want to post my reads, still want to try to contribute my thoughts when people bring up cases. I still want to believe I can help push for a victory, instead of crawling into a hole and disappearing for the rest of the game because no one will believe me.
On June 21 2012 10:08 suki wrote:
This is my case against Miltonkram. Come daytime I will vote for him. I can't see sciberbia or crossfire as scum. I can't see HeavOnEarth pressuring a scum Golden the way he did. Milton is now the last and only suspect in my mind.
hmm I was expecting to find some better quotes. Maybe this section isn't the best evidence. You can decide for yourself. ---
No comment here.
---Clear plan for scum suki on D4 + Show Spoiler +
I already talked about this a bit in my post on miltonkram. If suki is scum, I'd have expected her to have a plan for D4. I think her plan was to get miltonkram lynched by killing alan. And then kill sciberbia and WIFOM her way into getting golden lynched. AND if golden gets modkilled D4/D5, this works out brilliantly for her.
If this is true, I'd have expected her to be very reluctant to back off miltonkram. And this holds true. She makes some pretty faulty analysis on the NK, insisting that it makes sense for miltonkram where it really doesn't.
---
If I'm scum, I'd have a better plan than get into a 4-player scenario with 3 practically confirmed townies. You could probably see me defending unforgiven and golden, to keep them around for the final stages. Remember, if I'm scum I have the luxury of knowing who is innocent and defending them.
I'm in the same corner as you sciberbia regarding NK's. You're trying to pin the NK's on me by saying they make sense, but they don't make sense for me to make them at all.
---
I could post more, but I think these are the major points. Especially reread the cases on her D1/N1 actions. The alan bandwaggon, faulty trackd00r case, and defense of HeavOnEarth all look scummy. Nothing really looks scummy about miltonkram, so I really think suki is mafia.
---
bolded parts are my defense.
---
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My response to sciberbia's next line of arguments:
On June 24 2012 18:15 sciberbia wrote:Instictively, suki's accusation of me makes me really sure about her being mafia. First of all, it is yet another "bad read" on her part. Second, I'm really surprised by the confidence in her accusation. It's not just "maybe we should consider the possibility that sciberbia is mafia". She goes from -60 to 60 on me after the mislynch of golden. Also, maybe I'm biased, but a few things in her case seem like exaggerations or just quite a stretch. But objectively, from the perspective of scum suki, here is the question: + Show Spoiler +
what is more likely?
(a) that miltonkram will vote sciberbia over suki
(b) or that crossfire will vote miltonkram over suki
Honestly (b) seems more likely to me . I was expecting scum suki to bank on crossfire not being convinced by me. And then she could either NK me and hope crossfire wouldn't change his mind, or NK crossfire and hope I WIFOM myself into voting miltonkram.
I thought my defense of miltonkram was pretty good, but just yesterday crossfire was suspicious of miltonkram to the point of voting him, and still not suspicious of suki. If I had had to bet, I think I would've bet crossfire would reluctantly agree with me to lynch suki, but I'm really not sure.
So does she really think miltonkram would vote me over her on the last day? Again I may be biased, but I don't think miltonkram would.
---
This does make sense from a townie perspective, though, right? The onus is on me to convince milton that I'm not scum. And a scum sciberbia would definitely not take out me or milton.
---
So why would scum suki decide to accuse me and NK crossfire rather than accuse miltonkram and randomize the NK between me/crossfire? I guess it's possible that she judged the likeliness of (a) and (b) differently than me.
---
Why would I accuse sciberbia at all? If it's between you or miltonkram I think there's a much higher chance of convincing you that milton is scum than of convincing milton that you are scum.
---
I just realized something else. She could NK miltonkram tomorrow if crossfire buys into her case on me. So she really only needs to convince EITHER miltonkram OR crossfire to vote me, and she can WIFOM her way to a win.
---
You think I'd NK milton and keep crossfire and sciberbia on? How is that beneficial to me?
If I was scum, do you really think I'd hedge my entire last-day plans on pinning you as scum?
---
ACTUALLY, I just realized something else. If nobody buys her case on sciberbia, she can still NK me and (maybe) get crossfire to lynch miltonkram? Hmm but miltonkram surely wouldn't NK me in that situation so I don't think crossfire would buy it. Goddamn this is confusing.
From the perspective of town suki, here is the question: + Show Spoiler +
what is more likely:
(a) sciberbia is mafia and suki can convince miltonkram/crossfire to vote him if crossfire/miltonkram dies
(b) miltonkram is mafia and suki can convince crossfire/sciberbia to vote him if sciberbia/crossfire dies
Well, considering that just yesterday she was deadset on lynching miltonkram, and was repeatedly saying how I am surely town, (b) seems more likely. Unless she really, really liked my (her accused scum) defense of miltonkram. (b) just seems more likely. The entire game she has been insisting I am town, but she "liked the idea of miltonkram being mafia". So I'd find this a surprising move from a townie suki as well.
You made a really good defense of milton. What else am I going to do as town suki? If I was scum suki wouldn't it be easier to just keep pressing milton? It'd certainly be more consistent.
Instead I don't even know what I'm doing anymore and don't know who could be mafia.
, I think that a townie suki pulling this move is less likely than a scum suki. Read her filter front to back. Does she really think I am mafia all of a sudden? I don't think so. ---
here is my thought pattern. Sciberbia is really hard defending milton, discrediting my case against him, finding more townie things, so that I can't even pretend to think that he's scummy. Who is left to analyse?
On the surface, a scum sciberbia gains a lot by hard defending miltonkram. But on the other hand, a scum sciberbia would benefit more by not defending miltonkram and letting me and milton duke it out.
---I think it's more likely that she is mafia and for whatever reason judged that crossfire would vote her in the end, so decided to explore other options. Now she can NK miltonkram or crossfire depending on how they respond to her case. I guess she could also still NK me, but I think crossfire would see that she has to be mafia in that case. ---
You really expect me to be that crafty? Personally, and I think you know this too, I'd have simply planned who was alive on the final day much better and not gotten into this spot in the first place if I was scum.
---one more thing in favor of suki being mafia + Show Spoiler +
I meant to say this yesterday: at this point the last scum benefits greatly from lynching anybody besides themself. It is typical of the final scum to throw suspicion on anyone possible. This is not true of townies who only benefit from lynching the one scum. Who has been the most bloodthirsty D4/D5? Suki has been totally down with voting miltonkram, golden, and now me. Miltonkram wasn't too sure about suki/golden on D4, and thinks me and crossfire are town. This was another thing that made me think he is town.
Scum doesn't benefit from throwing suspicion on the most townie person though. Or keeping super townie people alive til the end.
Town however has no idea who is scum, and especially in this game, I'm just so confused. The only thing I know to do is to make a case on someone and judge the reactions.
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On June 22 2012 12:58 suki wrote:
And Crossfire has two big things going for him in my mind (aside from all the other points put forth by other players). The first is his case against sciberbia. No scum is going to attack the strongest townie in the game. They are just gonna shoot him at night. If a scum is gonna be aggressive at all he's gonna target the easy targets. Second, I really really have faith in my meta-game read on him. His helpful tone in the beginning is consistent with his helpful tone in the mafia QT in his past game. This is not something you fake as mafia, this is part of one's personality. He genuinely wants to help town and the helpful tone bubbles out. If he were mafia, that desire to help would not be so genuine.
Suki, is the bolded part no longer valid in your town read on me since you think sciberbia is the last scum? If so, is the only reason you trust me because of meta?
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My analysis on sciberbia's recent townie case on Miltonkram:
On June 24 2012 05:13 sciberbia wrote:reasons why miltonkram looks really townInitial suspicions on roflwaffles + Show Spoiler +Miltonkram puts roflwaffles in his top 2 most suspicious about 21 hours into D1: + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 06:38 Miltonkram wrote:
roflwaffles55
I'm suspicious of this guy based on two of his posts. First one is a response to s0Lstice/sciberbia:
...
Notice how self-conscious he is in this post, especially in that last line. I realize that several players weren't interested in his case, but there is absolutely no harm in keeping pressure on a player until they give you a satisfactory defense. Essentially he backs down from his pressure based on a tiny reprimand from Crossfire. It seems like he's trying to keep himself out of the spotlight.
...
Obviously all these players can't be scum. I'll be looking through the thread more to see what I can do about narrowing down my list of suspicious players. Right now I'm leaning towards roflwaffles and MJ. I'm waiting to see if suki actually defends herself this time around. Not only does he show suspicions on roflwaffles, but his reasoning is actually quite good. roflwaffles did make himself look scared by backing down off his top suspect just because people disagreed with his case. roflowaffles then made 2 posts. One post in which he said miltonkram had "defeated his own arguments" and then this post further pressuring alan: + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 07:35 roflwaffles55 wrote:
@alan
Interesting that the first legitimate read that you come up with is a conspiracy between me and suki. Not only is it completely ridiculous, but you second guess it immediately, again leaving your options open so that you can't actually be held accountable for anything. Put yourself on the line, start contributing to the big picture and not just responding emotionally to me, and think logically about what you're going to post.
The biggest thing that keeps irking me about your play is your seeming avoidance of actual decision making, the fact that even when criticizing my play you can't say "I think this is scummy". You go all the way around it and put the possible motivations from both angles.
I would appreciate it if someone other then me looked at alan133's posts and formed their own independent opinion on him.
Then, miltonkram backs off of roflwaffes, because miltonkram sees that roflwaffles is still pressuring alan. Now, this whole back-and-forth does seem like it could be an artificial conversation between two mafia. But, don't you think it would be a bit too obvious? Why does miltonkram back off of roflwaffles if this is a bussing thing? Nobody else showed any suspicions of roflwaffles, so it wasn't like roflwaffles was in any danger. I don't think it makes sense for a scum miltonkram would be backing off so quickly there. Surely he would realize it'd look suspicious if either him or roflwaffles ever died and flipped red. Anyway, I have to consider the whole thing with roflwaffles slight evidence in his favor. If Miltonkram really did bus HeavOnEarth, that means he kinda bussed both scumbuddies on D1. This seems a bit unnecessary and overly ambitious. Milton shows suspicion on rofls, but he then later backs rofls up by saying he appears less scummy for continuing his case on alan.
He also tries to point towards alan in the same post that he defends rofl.
You can say it would be a bit too obvious, but isn't that the simplest explanation? Milton might not be as crafty or self-aware as you would be as mafia. You can't discredit someone for being mafia just because their actions are too obviously mafia.
I think this is really good evidence for miltonkram being town, especially relative to suki. Here is a summary of how the alan bandwaggon rolled on D1 + Show Spoiler +
-- (1) roflwaffles accuses alan hard and votes him
-- suki is not convinced
-- crossfire is not convinced
-- (2) miltonkram puts alan in his top 2
-- trackd00r is not convinced
-- (3) s0Lstice jumps on the bandwaggon
-- (4) suki changes her mind and jumps on the bandwaggon
-- sciberbia defends alan
-- (3) miltonkram backs down from alan
-- golden will reserve judgement
-- austinmcc is not convinced
-- suki continues to attack alan
-- (2) s0Lstice backs off alan
-- (1) suki backs off alan
-- (0) alan shoots roflwaffles and becomes confirmed town
Now miltonkram and roflwaffles being scumbuddies wouldn't make any sense here. roflwaffles brings up a case, two people aren't convinced, and then scumbuddy miltonkram jumps on the scum bandwaggon? What? Highly unlikely. I've read miltonkram's mafia QT from NMM XIV and he really tries not to tie himself to his scumbuddy. Then, after s0Lstice and suki jump on the bandwaggon, miltonkram jumps off, and posts a bit of defense for alan. How does a mafia miltonkram expect alan to get mislynched by behaving like that?
---
Milton clearly puts mouldyjeb above alan in terms of suspicion. Also notice that immediately after he clears alan, he posts another list of suspects which includes Mouldyjeb and Crossfire, two cases which were gaining momentum at the time.
---
I think it's more likely that miltonkram read my defense of alan and liked it. He also looked back through alan's filter, and decided to back off of him. suki's movements on this bandwaggon look far more suspicious. She changes her mind at the worst possible times. ---
But I've always given strong arguments for my actions. Timing is something I can't help, but the townie motivation is clear I feel.
---
This has to be counted in his favor. First, look at how he calls out HeavOnEarth twice for lurking: On June 14 2012 06:38 Miltonkram wrote:
Golden + HeavOnEarth
Get in the thread and post more. You guys can start by giving me your opinions on this post.
On June 14 2012 08:05 Miltonkram wrote:
@Crossfire, Golden, and HeavOnEarth
What do you think of these two players and the cases against them? Are there any scummy players you think we're missing? We need more activity out of you guys. Of the three of you, only heaven's put decent pressure on anyone and even that is difficult to take seriously because he hasn't followed up on his reads at all. Calling out a scumbuddy for lurking is not a big deal. It's actually an easy way for scum to look like they're contributing when really they're not doing all that much.Then, he is third on the HeavOnEarth bandwaggon, after me and s0Lstice. Seeing as HeavOnEarth was s0Lstice's top target, and in my top 3, and s0Lstice and I had a lot of thread influence, it would have been quite risky for a scum miltonkram to add any more fuel to the fire. Does he really want to get the godfather lynched D1? ---
He was third to post suspicions, but he didn't put in his vote. At that point in the thread it wouldn't be too much of a stretch to say Crossfire or MouldyJeb would be the lynch target for the day.
---Then miltonkram goes to sleep, wakes up, and reads the thread. s0Lstice is pushing a HeavOnEarth lynch. alan has also voted him. Then miltonkram sensibly puts his vote on HeavOnEarth. All of miltonkram's actions contributed to the HeavOnEarth lynch, so it's certainly good evidence in favor of him being townie. ---
Calling out HeavOn for lurking did not contribute that much. Putting HeavOnEarth in his top 3 helped a bit. The timing on his vote was not the best. It's not hard to think that he was preparing for an eventual bus on HeavOnEarth and it just so happened that that day was Day 1.
---
Now what kind of lame-ass bus would these posts be? Miltonkram's pre-lynch nervousness has been held against him. At first, I saw it that way too. But if you really think about it, I think it's good evidence in his favor. On June 15 2012 05:33 Miltonkram wrote:
Ok it's time we start consolidating lynch candidates. Right now it looks like people are interested in lynching Heaven,Crossfire, and maybe Golden. Am I correct? I think those are our realistic lynch candidates at this point. I'd suggest everyone limit their votes to these three players unless you think I'm overlooking something huge. On June 15 2012 05:48 Miltonkram wrote:
@ Heaven
There are a lot of people jumping on your case really quickly. Not gonna lie, it's making me a little nervous. Please post some sort of defense or at the very least what kind of reads you have on players whenever you have the time. Look at the thread temperature at that point. s0Lstice has been pushing for a HeavOnEarth lynch. alan, suki, miltonkram, and roflwaffles have all voted HeavOnEarth. sciberbia will surely vote HeavOnEarth. Now if miltonkram is mafia, he sees 5 votes on HeavOnEarth. The bandwaggon against him includes both scum AND s0Lstice/sciberbia. In what fantasy world is HeavOnEarth not getting lynched? If miltonkram is scum, he clearly already resigned himself to the fact that HeavOnEarth is getting lynched, seeing as both he and roflwaffles voted HeavOnEarth. So if miltonkram knows HeavOnEarth is getting lynched, and knows HeavOnEarth will flip scum, what on earth is the point of these 2 posts that don't make him look that great if HeavonEarth flips scum? Wouldn't he do better to look more committed to the lynch? This is one of the posts that struck me as very solid when I first read your defense of Milton. It really doesn't make sense for him to do such a thing. But perhaps, perhaps he was hoping for a last minute-save.
I can still see panicking-scum motivation to post this, but there could be townie motivation as well...
the NK of austinmcc + Show Spoiler +
First of all, assuming golden flips VT (or scum), it's pretty obvious that we have no more blues >_<. Which means the last mafia is surely a goon. Having a roleblocker vs a mere vigilante & veteran is ridiculously overpowered. Additionally, nobody has been RB'd all game.
So killing austinmcc without even roleblocking him isn't nearly as much of a boon to mafia. They can't stop him shooting roflwaffles if he is vigi. And shooting a lynchable veteran is a terrible idea.
So I'm quite sure the NK of austinmcc was a suboptimal play. During N1, miltonkram would surely think he has some slim chance of winning the game as mafia, whereas suki would probably know she is dead. So I think suki is more likely to have made a suboptimal NK for the lulz or just some random reason not related to winning the game.
I think that my NK analysis was decent for the austin NK. Milton had put crossfire as one of his top 3 scum reads, and austin was heavily attacking crossfire.
In favor of suki though, she was active all night, whereas miltonkram was gone. Seeing as blues we had both submitted their night actions in a timely manner, the scrambling of the mods was likely done for mafia's benefit. More likely to be because of miltonkram than suki.
Overall, I don't think this is great evidence for either one of them (suki/miltonkram) over the other.
If miltonkram is really scum, he played one hell of a D1. Honestly since D1, he hasn't acted quite as townie, but he seems to have been really busy, and here are a couple things in his favor. His reasoning behind the breadcrumbing comment+ Show Spoiler +I see two possible reasons for his suggestion to get blues to breadcrumb at the end of N1: 1) He is town and thought this was a good idea 2) He is mafia and was desperately trying to find the (nonexistant >_<) cop When I asked him about his reasoning, he made this post" + Show Spoiler +On June 19 2012 03:53 Miltonkram wrote:
@ sciberbia
You had been commenting quite a bit on blue role play and I thought I needed to add my two cents. I was trying to figure out ways for us to get enough confirmed town players to make it impossible for scum to win. At first I was thinking about the possibility of confirming two townies if we had a jailkeeper. One would claim they were RB'd and the jailer would show us his/her breadcrumb. I thought of what could go wrong after I posted my advice. What if we had a scum RBer and they breadcrumbed their action and used this to become confirmed town? My mind kind of exploded then.
I was also thinking of confirming town players through a cop, but that would require this game not to be a setup with double godfathers. I find that a distinct possibility (if we have a cop) because I could see prplhz making a setup that is basically a "fuck you" to town players who rely too much on blue roles. Does this make sense? Basically my thoughts were chasing themselves around in circles and I didn't think all the possibilities through when I posted my breadcrumbing comment. I'm hoping everyone ignored it.
This strongly suggests to me that he is town. If a mafia miltonkram got called out on giving town bad advice, I'd expect some decent excuse. But here he shows some really in-depth thinking on the subject from a townie perspective. Reads quite townie to me. ---
Disagree. It's easy to give an in depth explanation to make doubly sure that you look townie. Perhaps this is also a play that he would make as a townie too, so it was an easy defense. I read this whole breadcrumbing business as neutral.
---
I've already talked about this a bit. I really think crossfire was a more sensible kill for miltonkram. If golden is mafia, I think he made a mistake by killing alan. He should have killed crossfire.
If the last mafia is suki/miltonkram, I have no doubt that they'd have some sort of plan for what went down today. Scum suki seems to have had a plan: kill alan --> get miltonkram lynched. Very straightforward.
But miltonkram not so much. First of all, he doesn't actually post until quite a bit of time has passed. This allows 2 votes to get thrown on him without much resistance. Then, he accuses golden moreso than suki.
I really don't think he'd have planned on lynching golden today. Leave sciberbia alive --> lynch golden doesn't seem like it would have been a solid plan.
---
Agree. Going after golden and soft-defending me really really doesn't make sense to me. This is one of the points that made me take a closer look at sciberbia.
However, maybe, just maybe, he figured you'd be dead set on lynching me on the last day, and he was safe from being lynched, so his end game plan was sciberbia, suki, miltonkram.
After all, you made the argument that how would milton expect to live through yesterday? And yet he did just that, and he made a big case on golden to do it. So perhaps his end game scenario really was sciberbia suki milton, and he was banking on you reading him as town the way you're doing now.
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OK that's about all I've got on miltonkram. The only thing I really don't like about him is that he has been kinda quiet since D1, and only given reads on lynch targets of the day. But he has been quite busy, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. He reads strongly town to me. I'm not so willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. His post-day 1 play can definitely have scum motivation, and at the very least has not been helpful to town. His day 1 play I don't find convincingly townie. You make some really good points but I really don't think he's as townie as you make him out to be. I'm going to be afk a couple hours, but I'll be here at the deadline tonight. Hopefully this whole post was a complete waste of time
sciberbia, It seems like you're dismissing all the scummy points on Milton as being 'too obvious' for a scum milton... Doesn't that seem weird? This is a newbie game too, how can you expect picture-perfect mafia play?
How can you view me as scum, when you look at my play style for this entire game? When you look at the NK choices? All your evidence against me is circumstantial, but my play has clearly had town motivations. I've been wrong a million times, but at least I've had the motivation to put my neck out and find scum. Milton hasn't even lifted a finger. Your self-defense is very good. Your defense of Milton is very good. But one of those defenses is wrong. If you know that you're town, then have another look at Milton if you want to win this game.
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On June 25 2012 02:02 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 22 2012 12:58 suki wrote:
And Crossfire has two big things going for him in my mind (aside from all the other points put forth by other players). The first is his case against sciberbia. No scum is going to attack the strongest townie in the game. They are just gonna shoot him at night. If a scum is gonna be aggressive at all he's gonna target the easy targets. Second, I really really have faith in my meta-game read on him. His helpful tone in the beginning is consistent with his helpful tone in the mafia QT in his past game. This is not something you fake as mafia, this is part of one's personality. He genuinely wants to help town and the helpful tone bubbles out. If he were mafia, that desire to help would not be so genuine.
Suki, is the bolded part no longer valid in your town read on me since you think sciberbia is the last scum? If so, is the only reason you trust me because of meta?
My case on sciberbia being the last scum doesn't affect my read on you. If you're the last scum, you still wouldn't target sciberbia. You'd probably target me or milton.
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I've made two cases during this night. The first is a big case on sciberbia. The second is addressing sciberbia's defense on Milton and showing why he isn't necessarily town.
My reads, for clarity, are as follows:
Crossfire - Town
sciberbia - Most likely town due to his solid defense and certain end game decisions not making sense from a scum sciberbia point of view.
Milton - Most likely scum. Due to his lack of action post day-1, due to his day 1 still being able to be scummy even tho it's got a townie feel overall. Due to sciberbia most likely being town.
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Just woke up. God this game just never gets any easier, or simpler. Might be a little busy today, but I'll be thinking about this.
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Hey guys.
First things first+ Show Spoiler +How... how... how did Golden flip town?
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Here are my thoughts on the remaining players.
Crossfire
Points in his favor:
- Both roflwaffles and HeavOnEarth targeted him heavily before they died. They targeted him before they knew that their lives were forfeit and that town wouldn't lend credence to their opinions therefore I seriously believe that they were trying to get him lynched. He gets a lot of town points for that.
- He didn't contribute to the HeavOnEarth lynch, but was the first to pressure roflwaffles N1. Considering he had no knowledge of what blue roles were around at the time I see this as an unnecessary risk by a scum player. More town points.
Points against him:
- I disagree with some of the opinions he had D1. That's all I have against him.
suki
Points in her favor:
- She's taken incorrect stances during the game, but she's never backed down from the reasons she made the plays she has.
- She took the correct stances against both HeavOnEarth and roflwaffles.
- Her play ever since D1 has been very townie. Once again, this is easy to do since she doesn't have any scumbuddies to defend, but the fact that she's played with a sense of urgency and has actively promoted a lot of discussion has to be counted in her favor.
Points against her:
- She ignored my pressure against her D1 until I commented that she was ignoring it.
- She made a bad case against trackd00r and backed down from it after being called out. Her defense of this play was also unsatisfactory.
Could suki be our final mafia? Perhaps, but I also think she overlooked an important point in sciberbia's play that may be the key to a correct final lynch.
sciberbia
Points in his favor:
- Correctly put pressure on HeavOnEarth. Voted HeavOnEarth.
- Correctly put pressure on roflwaffles.
- He's made his reads and has rarely backed down from them. There is a possible townie logic to all of his actions.
Points against him:
- He mentioned HeavOnEarth as a D1 lynch candidate as part of a list. I did this too, so I can see townie reasoning behind this. However he didn't vote on HeavOnEarth until it was abundantly clear that there was no hope for another D1 lynch target.
- He only attacked roflwaffles after Crossfire had posted this. + Show Spoiler +Then Milton (+ Show Spoiler +), roflwaffle (+ Show Spoiler +), and Golden (+ Show Spoiler +) all jump on the bandwagon without much new to add (not necessarily scummy in and of itself, there is only so much one can add based on one day's filter). I did notice a really weird thing about roflwaffle's post, though. He's upset that we are going to get too easy of a lynch and said that he knows Heavon is suspicious but thinks it's more worthwhile to attack someone with more influence like me (huh?, I've been under suspicion all day, if anything that makes people look at me more closely, there's no way I'm going to be influential). Also, his suspicion of Heavon up to that point consists of this. + Show Spoiler +On June 15 2012 02:44 roflwaffles55 wrote:
I'm going to post as though all of these people are scum, and the impact they have a chance to make if they are left alive. I think it will give a different way of thinking about it.
HeavOnEarth
His play is quite suspicious and his accusations and suspicions lackluster at best. He could just as easily be an awful townie as scum.
Overall he's been fairly ineffectual, but if he's hiding behind a mask of confusion and bad reads, he could be an annoyance as scum later on.
I believe that the most lynchable potential scum right now would be Crossfire99. I understand that there are already votes on HeavOnEarth, but if he really is that incompetent at bringing cases to the table, as a scum, why would he try to post them? He is suspicious to me, but not as suspicious as Crossfire. Unless he responds to the accusations in a convincing and collected manner soon, I strongly believe that he should be lynched.
##vote Crossfire99 All of this suspicion came after solstice's case against Heavon and he adds nothing new to it except postulating that he could be an awful townie (we now know that's not true). This makes me suspicious of roflwaffle.
- Sciberbia was obsessed with blue play after the D1 lynch. This could have been to draw out comments from players that, given his confidence in his analytical abilities, he could use to bluesnipe. I say this because when it became obvious that it would be 1 scum vs. 8 town, what blue roles we had could have played a deciding factor in this game. The safe play for scum would have been to try and draw some awkward comments out of blue roles. I'll be looking back through his filter to see just what kind of comments he made on blue roles.
@ suki
I find your end-game scenario of me/you/sciberbia a very viable possibility. Ask yourself why sciberbia has survived this long when the correct play by either of us would have probably been to shoot him early on? Please revisit your case against him.
I'm heading to the wedding that I'm out of town for. I'll be able to post again when I get back in about 8-9ish hours.
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Hey guys I'm really tired and kind of drunk I hope I can stay awake until deadline (2am) to do the daypost 'cause zelblade is back in school.
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On June 25 2012 06:35 Miltonkram wrote:Here are my thoughts on the remaining players. CrossfirePoints in his favor: - Both roflwaffles and HeavOnEarth targeted him heavily before they died. They targeted him before they knew that their lives were forfeit and that town wouldn't lend credence to their opinions therefore I seriously believe that they were trying to get him lynched. He gets a lot of town points for that. - He didn't contribute to the HeavOnEarth lynch, but was the first to pressure roflwaffles N1. Considering he had no knowledge of what blue roles were around at the time I see this as an unnecessary risk by a scum player. More town points. Points against him: - I disagree with some of the opinions he had D1. That's all I have against him. sukiPoints in her favor: - She's taken incorrect stances during the game, but she's never backed down from the reasons she made the plays she has. - She took the correct stances against both HeavOnEarth and roflwaffles. - Her play ever since D1 has been very townie. Once again, this is easy to do since she doesn't have any scumbuddies to defend, but the fact that she's played with a sense of urgency and has actively promoted a lot of discussion has to be counted in her favor. Points against her: - She ignored my pressure against her D1 until I commented that she was ignoring it. - She made a bad case against trackd00r and backed down from it after being called out. Her defense of this play was also unsatisfactory. Could suki be our final mafia? Perhaps, but I also think she overlooked an important point in sciberbia's play that may be the key to a correct final lynch. sciberbiaPoints in his favor: - Correctly put pressure on HeavOnEarth. Voted HeavOnEarth. - Correctly put pressure on roflwaffles. - He's made his reads and has rarely backed down from them. There is a possible townie logic to all of his actions. Points against him: - He mentioned HeavOnEarth as a D1 lynch candidate as part of a list. I did this too, so I can see townie reasoning behind this. However he didn't vote on HeavOnEarth until it was abundantly clear that there was no hope for another D1 lynch target. - He only attacked roflwaffles after Crossfire had posted this. + Show Spoiler +Then Milton (+ Show Spoiler +), roflwaffle (+ Show Spoiler +), and Golden (+ Show Spoiler +) all jump on the bandwagon without much new to add (not necessarily scummy in and of itself, there is only so much one can add based on one day's filter). I did notice a really weird thing about roflwaffle's post, though. He's upset that we are going to get too easy of a lynch and said that he knows Heavon is suspicious but thinks it's more worthwhile to attack someone with more influence like me (huh?, I've been under suspicion all day, if anything that makes people look at me more closely, there's no way I'm going to be influential). Also, his suspicion of Heavon up to that point consists of this. + Show Spoiler +On June 15 2012 02:44 roflwaffles55 wrote:
I'm going to post as though all of these people are scum, and the impact they have a chance to make if they are left alive. I think it will give a different way of thinking about it.
HeavOnEarth
His play is quite suspicious and his accusations and suspicions lackluster at best. He could just as easily be an awful townie as scum.
Overall he's been fairly ineffectual, but if he's hiding behind a mask of confusion and bad reads, he could be an annoyance as scum later on.
I believe that the most lynchable potential scum right now would be Crossfire99. I understand that there are already votes on HeavOnEarth, but if he really is that incompetent at bringing cases to the table, as a scum, why would he try to post them? He is suspicious to me, but not as suspicious as Crossfire. Unless he responds to the accusations in a convincing and collected manner soon, I strongly believe that he should be lynched.
##vote Crossfire99 All of this suspicion came after solstice's case against Heavon and he adds nothing new to it except postulating that he could be an awful townie (we now know that's not true). This makes me suspicious of roflwaffle. Roflwaffles had made a couple scumslips that were, in my opinion, indefensible. I think it was pretty clear that Crossfire was going to pursue his case against roflwaffles. Sciberbia could have just jumped on it knowing that there was nothing he could do to save him. - Sciberbia was obsessed with blue play after the D1 lynch. This could have been to draw out comments from players that, given his confidence in his analytical abilities, he could use to bluesnipe. I say this because when it became obvious that it would be 1 scum vs. 8 town, what blue roles we had could have played a deciding factor in this game. The safe play for scum would have been to try and draw some awkward comments out of blue roles. I'll be looking back through his filter to see just what kind of comments he made on blue roles. @ suki I find your end-game scenario of me/you/sciberbia a very viable possibility. Ask yourself why sciberbia has survived this long when the correct play by either of us would have probably been to shoot him early on? Please revisit your case against him. I'm heading to the wedding that I'm out of town for. I'll be able to post again when I get back in about 8-9ish hours.
Seriously, you are going to go with Sciberbia as your top scum read? Really!? I attacked him night 2 with a crazy in depth post and there is no way that he is scum. You also use the same points against him that I did, but I did a lot more research and I came into that post thinking that he was scum and after I wrote it, I came out realizing that he was town. Even suki thinks he is town after attacking him but then realizing there is no way he is mafia. (Thank goodness you backed down suki. If you didn't, it might have been enough for me to change my opinion on you.)
Milton this just makes me even more suspicious of you. Also, when did you clear suki of your suspicions enough to attack one of the most townie reads in the entire game? I feel like I am rehashing the same points with you again. You go from suki is town to suki is definitely scum and you only explained that after I pressured you earlier. Now you are back to suki is town because that is what she would be if sciberbia is scum. How does this make any sense? You barely explain your reasoning from jumping from suki to sciberbia.
Also, I find it funny that you were the first one to bring up golden as potentially being scummy. Everyone else had him pretty much as town (I even thought he was a frustrated townie after I read through his filter even though I though I was initially suspicious of him beforehand), until you threw out your tidbits of suspicion, but you never really posted a case on him yourself, just some suspicions with little proof. You let suki do that for you because you knew she is not afraid of being wrong. You hoped you would be able to slide under the radar by doing this, but now you can't. I don't even know if you could explain your actions away again this time. You are definitely still my top scum read.
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It is now 7:50 and I just saw Crossfire's post on miltonkram. The post below the dashed line is what I had written earlier today and was prepared to post just seconds before the deadline. But all my thinking has been done with the assumption that Crossfire might lynch suki over miltonkram if I am NK'd. I'm not sure if his post changes anything. Don't really have time to think.
If I'm still alive in 10 minutes I'll have more time to think about this. So I'm just going to assume I am NK'd and think about what that means:
Why would scum miltonkram try to throw suspicion at me? Couldn't he have likely won by just counteraccusing suki and NK'ing crossfire? Why would he throw suspicion at me and then NK me? That really doesn't make sense. He'd be better off defending me, accusing suki, and then NK'ing me. Still better, he would just NK crossfire and bank on me voting suki tomorrow.
I still think that if I am NK'd it's a pretty damn good bet that suki is mafia. But I think crossfire will still be the NK. Unless suki read his post, and decided to change her NK to me, banking on the fact that crossfire and her would both vote miltonkram. She'd have to hope that crossfire completely ignores the NK, and blindly goes ahead with his read. Crossfire, if this happens, read the end of NMM XV to see why you shouldn't do that. I think that if I am NK'd, suki essentially claimed scum. Miltonkram would surely not NK me. He'd NK crossfire. Right?
OK out of time. Below is the post that I was planning to make earlier. Now that I've typed this prequel, I don't think crossfire's recent post on miltonkram actually changes a whole lot.
In Summary: If I am NK'd, I'd strongly suggest to crossfire to lynch suki. Miltonkram would quite probably have NK'd crossfire.
oh also @mods
scum isn't allowed to change the NK after the deadline right? Pretty sure thats against the rules. Even if u havent posted the daypost yet.
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I'm expecting crossfire to die tonight because he is a universal townread. But if I'm dead in a minute, I want to strongly suggest to crossfire to lynch suki.
Why would scum suki NK sciberbia?+ Show Spoiler +
Obvious reasons. sciberbia has made it pretty clear he wants to lynch suki on the last day. Crossfire has most recently defended suki and accused miltonkram. Scum suki hopes she can get crossfire to lynch miltonkram with her.
Why would scum miltonkram NK sciberbia?+ Show Spoiler +
I highly doubt that he would. Out of everyone remaining, sciberbia has made it clearest whom he wants to lynch. He wants to lynch suki.
If miltonkram NK's crossfire (the universal town read and expected kill target), miltonkram is very unlikely to get lynched on the last day. Sciberbia has made it clear he would much rather vote suki over miltonkram. And suki has shown some suspicions of sciberbia. The NK of crossfire is very unlikely to sway these opinions.
Basically, if miltonkram is somehow scum, he has a pretty stellar chance at winning by NK'ing crossfire. So if I die instead, I'd be shocked if miltonkram is scum.
Of course, an NK of sciberbia is the only sensible choice for a scum crossfire. But, I think we're all agreed that crossfire is town.
Also, I'd probably expect scum suki or her coach to figure all this out and therefore not NK sciberbia (which would kinda be claiming scum). So if the NK is crossfire, I won't see it as evidence of anything (except that crossfire is town obviously).
Well, for the first time, I'm really hoping to be the target of the NK because I think it would give it away that suki is scum. Hopefully she didn't put that much thought into it.
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@prplhz
Are you still awake? Daypost incoming? I don't want to be spamming F5 for 20 minutes in vein...
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Day5
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/6KwQF.jpg)
sciberbia
???? - 2012
Now cracks a noble heart. Goodnight, sweet prince;
And flights of angels sing thee to thy rest.
sciberbia the Vanilla Townie has been died.
I'm going to bed.
+ Show Spoiler +sorry i get cranky when i'm tired
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gg guys. This game may not have been good for my health, but it's sure been a blast.
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gg sciberbia. Now I want to hear from both suki and milton on what has happened, specifically on milton's post and my case against him. I want to hear if suki agrees with my points or not because she also is suspcious of him. I also want to hear milton's defense and why he suddenly found sciberbia scummy.
I also just realized that this game went longer than I anticipated, so I am actually not going to be able to post in this thread until sometime on Tuesday. I don't even know what time on Tuesday, but I will probably only have a short time to do so. I will be back before the deadline to read your responses and I will vote. You can count on that. + Show Spoiler +assuming I don't get into a car accident again lol
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On Milton's analysis of players:
suki
...
Points against her:
- She ignored my pressure against her D1 until I commented that she was ignoring it.
- She made a bad case against trackd00r and backed down from it after being called out. Her defense of this play was also unsatisfactory.
Out of all the scummy things you could think of to pin on me Milton, you chose that I ignored your pressure on me D1? I clearly answered it. Your case, now that I look back on it, seems especially try-hard:
Suki has been painting track's two posts as directly contradictory even though they aren't. This could be an overzealous town play but I don't think it is. What possible motivation could there be for a strong attack on someone with a controversial opinion? Firstly, there's the chance that the town might bandwagon on it. This would be the best possible scenario for suki if she is scum. She leads a bandwagon D1 and she gets a mislynch. Secondly, she gains town cred for appearing aggressive even if she doesn't get the lynch. It seems like a win/win scenario for scum unless of course someone makes the analysis I'm making now.
I didn't think your case against me was strong. I didn't like how you presented it. I don't like how you've brought up this trivial piece of information so late in the game, as if to say, look I contributed. There's definite scum motivation in bringing up tiny points that really have no relevance to the current discussion.
I have responded to the trackd00r case issue and have nothing more to say on that matter. It's weird how you seem to be referencing my first case against trackd00r, the very first case of the game. Let me go to your points on sciberbia.
The first two points on his vote timing on HeavOnEarth and timing of attack on rofls was already discussed. The last point, nailing sciberbia for discussing blues? That also seems extremely try-hard.
Why do you only focus on Day 1 actions? You completely ignore all that has happened since then, but even if the last scum has no one to protect or cover for, the motivations are still all there. I find your analysis to be trite and incomplete, but the biggest issue I have with it is that through our analysis of only day 1 actions, you somehow come to the conclusion that sciberbia is more scummy than I am. Nevermind all the cross-analysis that has been done over the entire game.
Regarding Crossfire's analysis of Milton's analysis
I agree with everything Crossfire has said. It's strange how he attacked sciberbia instead of me. It's strange how his view of me has flipped so many times without much reason. It's strange how sciberbia is somehow more suspicious than I am despite sciberbia's constant tunneling of me and finding every little thing he can as scummy. Milton's case against golden can definitely be seen as relying on me to make the case against golden while he sits in the background. It also fits with his entire play style since the end of N1 - quiet, bandwagon-y, avoiding commentary on anyone except the current lynch target.
My NK analysis and who I am going to vote for
Sciberbia died. That was a pretty big shock to me. Especially after sciberbia's big post just before the day post, it seems that nothing I would say would keep him from lynching me on the final day.
This is a huge blunder from Milton. Perhaps he thought there was a good chance that I would go after sciberbia. By agreeing with me on sciberbia, he buddies up with me. Then sciberbia dies, and the big question is, why would Miltonkram NK sciberbia, when Crossfire clearly will go for a Milton lynch on the final day?
It made me take a really close look at Crossfire's filter, that's for sure. After all, if Crossfire is scum, then he can't kill himself. So his only option is to kill sciberbia. Crossfire's only option is to kill sciberbia. Milton's best option is to kill Crossfire. Therefore, by analysing this NK alone you could conclude that Crossfire is quite possibly the last scum.
But I don't see Crossfire's play as scummy. + Show Spoiler +
Crossfire's play has been very townie this game. Aside from my meta read on him, there are quite a few things that I like about his play.
First, he attacked me early on, but quickly backed off when he realized his argument was flawed (knowing that alan was blue). Scum are more careful about attacking people for easily rebutted reasons, and even more careful about backing off quickly.
Crossfire also targeted sciberbia who was strong townie, also a risky move for mafia.
He was eager to arrange a meeting time to chat with sciberbia in-thread.
Crossfire was the target of HeavOnEarth and Roflwaffles early game. They were quite set on getting him mislynched. Miltonkram, too, also applied some light pressure on crossfire. Austinmcc, the night 1 mafia kill, had strongly pushed for Crossfire's lynch. All signs point to mafia trying to kill Crossfire, and there's no reason to do that so early in the game if Crossfire is mafia.
On top of that, there's precedence for this NK: Milton's analysis post.
Milton's sudden and weakly motivated switch on sciberbia, followed by his NK of sciberbia, could be a last ditch effort to sow confusion. Switching his vote to sciberbia seems like a ploy to get me on his side, since from my tone on the case on sciberbia I had cleared Milton from suspicion. Now, if he can get me on his side, then killing sciberbia is a good way for me to stay on his side. After all, a NK of sciberbia doesn't benefit a scum miltonkram, but it benefits a scum crossfire. In addition, a NK of sciberbia greatly benefits a scum suki. So this NK works both ways. If either crossfire or me read too much into this NK and votes the other, then Milton just has to piggy-back on one of us and win the game.
My read on Crossfire is strongly town. In addition, Milton just looks so scummy to me.
Here is a short summary post of why I felt Milton was suspicious prior to switching to golden:
+ Show Spoiler +On June 23 2012 01:04 suki wrote:Eh I still think Milton looks suspicious. his slips: His soft defense of roflwaffles ("..the unvote seems less scummy") His soft support of rofls ("as far as alan133 is concerned you may have something") His nervousness pre-heaven lynch his playstyle: following rofl's death, he stopped contributing to town and simply followed the strongest case. his busses were easy to do. crossfire's recent post Show nested quote +So he went from being pretty much convinced of suki's townieness and really liking her case to thinking she's scum in the second post, but then we should ignore her? Huh??? Finally, he says suki is scum if unforgiven is green. What convinced him so completely that suki is scum? He never mentioned it in his posts. He just says she is scum. Also I don't get how if someone is the most logical candidate for a lynch you should just ignore them. Thinking on why he hasn't taken a strong stance on me: Prior to today, it was beneficial for him to not take a strong stance on me or even read me as town. I have been the primary suspect for so long that if I got lynched, the other players would look bad for pushing my lynch and he gets to stay out of the spotlight. Perhaps due to the fact that he's never seen me as scummy, he can't help to push my lynch or he'd look really suspicious (due to inconsistency). This weird non-committal response on who is town is the best he can manage and still stay consistent with his previous views. I don't know how he plans to survive the final day, I really don't. But I still think he slipped several times and that you can find scum motivation for his play style and posts. Maybe the best he can come up with is to have me crossfire and himself at the end of the game and pull some WIFOM sneakiness against me. I don't know how to analyse the NK and make it fit Milton without resorting to WIFOM. But I don't think it discounts my case on him purely because there's possible WIFOM going on.
Now on top of all that, we also have Milton's flip-flopping opinion of me, AND his extremely suspicious, poorly-reasoned case on sciberbia.
Since there's only 3 people left in the game, this post is for Crossfire's benefit. If you are considering that I am scum because of the NK, do what I did with you. I had a really good town read on you, but looking at Milton's play he's just played so suspicious (especially in this final day) that I can't see his play as being pro-town or town-motivated. It just makes no sense from a town perspective. His vote timings on rofl and heavon were safe, he never initiated a case against someone else (minus golden, but he waited for me to jump on), and he never analysed anyone except someone with a strong case against them. The NK's too, make sense when you consider a scum Milton's motivations.
In short, I'm convinced that Milton is the last scum.
##vote Miltonkram
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On June 25 2012 08:20 wrote:
Seriously, you are going to go with Sciberbia as your top scum read? Really!? I attacked him night 2 with a crazy in depth post and there is no way that he is scum. You also use the same points against him that I did, but I did a lot more research and I came into that post thinking that he was scum and after I wrote it, I came out realizing that he was town. Even suki thinks he is town after attacking him but then realizing there is no way he is mafia. (Thank goodness you backed down suki. If you didn't, it might have been enough for me to change my opinion on you.)
Milton this just makes me even more suspicious of you. Also, when did you clear suki of your suspicions enough to attack one of the most townie reads in the entire game? I feel like I am rehashing the same points with you again. You go from suki is town to suki is definitely scum and you only explained that after I pressured you earlier. Now you are back to suki is town because that is what she would be if sciberbia is scum. How does this make any sense? You barely explain your reasoning from jumping from suki to sciberbia.
Also, I find it funny that you were the first one to bring up golden as potentially being scummy. Everyone else had him pretty much as town (I even thought he was a frustrated townie after I read through his filter even though I though I was initially suspicious of him beforehand), until you threw out your tidbits of suspicion, but you never really posted a case on him yourself, just some suspicions with little proof. You let suki do that for you because you knew she is not afraid of being wrong. You hoped you would be able to slide under the radar by doing this, but now you can't. I don't even know if you could explain your actions away again this time. You are definitely still my top scum read.
@ Crossfire
My case on sciberbia was an attempt to bait a response from suki. During the last night cycle I determined that suki had to be scum. It wasn't so much that she played incredibly scummy, it's just that it made no sense for either you or sciberbia to be scum. It's a great credit to her play that she managed to make herself look as townie as she has, but she is now the only realistic option for our last mafia.
+ Show Spoiler +Quick aside. Crossfire, if you are scum, there is some serious hat-tippage coming to you after the game. I'm rolling with my assumption that you have to be confirmed town, but if you, as scum, planned everything to go this way, color me impressed.
My thought process was this: if I made it look like suki's case against sciberbia had convinced me to seriously think of him as a scum possibility, she might suddenly warm up to the idea again. Then she would shoot you and I would reveal that it had been a ploy. Suki's flip-flop would be a pretty damning scumslip. Sciberbia and I would vote her and we'd have a town win. I think I made two mistakes that caused suki not to fall for it. Firstly, I posted it way too late in the night cycle to give suki time to respond. I think she may have missed it. Secondly, I was crunched for time so I had to get a decent case together as fast as possible. Perhaps she did see it and saw through it. Either way, it didn't accomplish what I intended it to.
Hopefully that explains my case on sciberbia well enough. I realize how it could have thrown you for a loop. I thought it would be really tempting for suki to go after a "sure" mislynch on sciberbia come the day cycle, possibly causing her to slip up.
You're point about me attacking Golden is pure crap though. A lot of people read him as town for a long time. Looking back through his filter there were a few things that stuck out to me that made me think he was scum. The fact that he never defended himself from Heaven made me think that he was supposed to be a lynch target D1 and Heaven just botched it. Obviously I was wrong.
If you have any questions for me, please ask them. I'll be back in the thread later with my opinion on the ways suki slipped up.
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Final deadline in like 6 hours.
Remember to vote.
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Alright, here's my case on why suki is scum. I will be bringing up points that have been made before. I figure
First, her attack on trackd00r and subsequent back-down:
+ Show Spoiler +Is it just me or is trackd00r coming off as scummy already? Show nested quote +If I understood correctly, it doesn't mean that I would stop any lynch that I didn't mention on my analysis. Just because I have a candidate for lynch, it doesn't imply that I discard any other possibility.
It's something related to common sense. If any other cases are convincing enough, I'll throw my vote there in the case I can't get a majority. In the other hand, if we end up like RNG lynching (which is a bad idea), any other poster that could be doing silly mistakes, or even a player practically saying ''hey guys, I'm mafia, lynch me'' that's when it goes against my mindset. Any possibility is valuable, but if there is something absurdly wrong, I'll call it, even if that means a no lynch. This post screams to me that he's trying to be super cautious with his words, so that he'll have a safety net if/when he ever changes a vote or bandwagons on someone else. He throws out some 'obvious' examples of reasons of what wouldn't agree with him, and even mentions that he would follow through on a read, even if it that means a no lynch.BUT WAIT! Just ONE post previous to that he says this: I won't accept a NO LYNCH unless I believe we may have a serious mislynch coming. ... Dude. You try to take a firm stance against something, and then you do the most scummy wishy-washy-ness thing ever the very next post. You're clearly informed about mafia as you brought up the idea of a day 1 RNG lynch, and being against a no lynch is not a difficult or complicated policy to hold. I feel that such a simple logical slip only happens if you're trying to play it safe and keep your options open. ##vote trackd00r
+ Show Spoiler +As has been pointed out, the contradiction isn't as severe as I initially thought it was.
##unvote trackd00r
I thought at the very least I could rouse a response from trackd00r, however my case was too weak and I feel that no useful information can be gleamed from people simply agreeing on its flimsiness.
Regarding miltonkram's vote of sciberbia, I personally think it's a joke referencing our previous game XV where he votes sciberbia within the first few posts of the game. I thought it was pretty funny myself.
I feel that rofl's case on alan is not very convincing. First off, alan isn't bandwagoning on the lurker/inactive issue, at that point is split about 50/50 with half of the previous posters saying they want to focus on scumhunting and half leaning more towards a lurker lynch. Second, the game is so new that I disagree with the statement that his play is anti-town. He hasn't made any strong statements because there are few strong statements to make. My case on trackd00r was/is a flop, and up until your vote on alan no one has really pointed out anything suspicious about any other player (well, aside from those questioning my motivation to vote for trackd00r). Contributions are low but that's to be expected in the first hours of the game. I feel that there's not enough information out there yet to make an opinion on alan.
The scummiest thing about pressuring trackd00r is that she gets extremely aggressive towards a player making controversial comments. If anything, trackd00r's early game comments gave me a slight townie read on him. He wasn't shying away from his semi-controversial comments either. This has been pointed out before, but town players are actually trying to scumhunt while scum players are simply looking for weak targets. This, to me, looks like suki trying to find a weak target.
Next, she addresses my pressure towards her and begins pressuring alan133:
+ Show Spoiler +@Miltonkram Show nested quote +Suki has been painting track's two posts as directly contradictory even though they aren't. This could be an overzealous town play but I don't think it is. What possible motivation could there be for a strong attack on someone with a controversial opinion? Firstly, there's the chance that the town might bandwagon on it. This would be the best possible scenario for suki if she is scum. She leads a bandwagon D1 and she gets a mislynch. Secondly, she gains town cred for appearing aggressive even if she doesn't get the lynch. It seems like a win/win scenario for scum unless of course someone makes the analysis I'm making now.
In summary, the case on trackd00r is pure crap. Making a controversial statement is not a scumtell. I think suki is trying to cover her scumminess by appearing aggressive without making a good case. Apologies for not addressing you directly. Quite simply you (and several other people after you) answered your question. The motivation is to get the ball rolling some way, any way. I feel I failed a bit in that regard as my attack was so full of holes that there hardly was any discussion developed from it, but it was made with good intentions. Regarding Mouldyjeb, I agree that he is confusing, however his filter is also quite short. His words definitely are not pro-town, but in my opinion they aren't inherently scummy either, it could just as easily be poor town play. Now I've gone through a few people's filters, and only one person really sticks out at me: alan133 roflwaffle initiated pressure on him, and then loosened up after Crossfire and I argued in alan's defense. I did not find the case convincing before, but now alan's posted his defense, and now the case is a lot more stronger to me. As a quick rehash of rofl's initial case, he argued that alan made posts with little controversy, that he wasn't interested or willing to apply pressure on anyone, that he does some bandwagoning. All true, but possible for both town and scum play. However, with his defense posts, I feel that things are starting to add up. Looking even closer at the filter I feel I've caught some things that I missed before. Show nested quote +FMPOV, suki's case was most probably based on a misunderstanding, but (s)he could very well did it intentionally hoping for a bandwagon leading to a mislynch. Note that I am merely listing the possibilities, I do not FoS anyone yet, which can also mean that I do not trust anyone yet. His initial statement is very verbose and is pro-actively defensive. He's countering arguments to his words before they even come up. He's even countering counter arguments to his words. "...hoping for a bandwagon leading to a mislynch. [counter] Note I am merely listing the possibilities, I do not FoS anyone yet, [counter-counter] which can also mean I do not trust anyone yet". He also likes to use FMPOV and IMO a lot, further stressing how his words are subjective. It's very telling when someone is that self-conscious and defensive, because only mafia really have that motivation. When called out by waffle for not having suspicions, he gets extremely agitated. Show nested quote +FMPOV, anyone can be scum, and having no FoS does not mean I do not suspect anyone. I merely state that I have no strong scum read as of currently, and in my context, strong means pretty much confirmed.
IMO those who are decisive in throwing votes based on weak or insubstantial claims were somewhat suspicious. I think it is normal for townies to hold doubts and and being decisive as they were less informed. If anything, I just tried to keep an open mind. He spends a lot of words explaining his reasoning behind saying he doesn't have an FoS. He starts to really use red to emphasize his words, which he had used previously to point out inconsistencies and scummy lines, but not to add emphasis to his words. Notice that he is spending a lot of effort defending himself and justifying his past words. I feel a townie would be less threatened by such accusations, and instead start trying to apply pressure and otherwise prove their towniness. . Following what he feels is an adequate self-defense, he goes on the offensive. Show nested quote +Also, is it me or you were trying to divert the attention AWAY from suki? I don't see how keeping the attention on suki is a bad thing, as you suggested. His current play is anti-town at best, as he hasn't brought any of his thoughts to the table, and has only left ambiguous and bandwagoning answers to keep attention on those with controversial opinions. Well if you're complaining about not bringing up any of my thoughts, there you have it. I were trying to avoid throwing out suspicions with little to no proof, but if by not doing so is anti-townAs a matter of fact, roflwaffles55 asked for my opinion replying to my opening post, and criticise it being a bandwagon, while forgetting he did the same. This is extremely extremely scummy to me. What he's saying here is essentially this: "If not giving throwing out suspicions is anti-town, then I will prove my towniness by throwing out suspicions.", followed by attacking the person who attacked him. He finishes the post by saying Show nested quote +My policy is to stay as neutral as possible, accessing all the possibilities while passively waiting/reading what other people has posted. I do believe this is not a bad-town play, as I am trying to avoid town fighting town scenario while scums lurks and look at the drama while eating pop-corns. There is a mental disconnect here. 1. He feels throwing out suspicions is bad for town 2. He tries to prove his towniness by throwing out a suspicion at his attacker 3. He reinforces his belief that staying neutral is not bad town play If he really was town and he really believed that his way of playing was optimal, why would he have the need to go completely against his beliefs to prove his towniness? In his next post, the same trend continues. He spends time justifying his red text: Show nested quote +The red text was meant to emphasize on how easily I could've built a case against you if I were to use the same speculations and baseless assumptions. but the interesting thing is.. if it was so easy for him to build a case against waffles, why didn't he? Of course, because he didn't have any. He was simply defending via attacking. And then there's the whole weird analysis that he does where he analyses my case and waffle's case, comes to the conclusion that: 1. waffles could be either scum or town (???) 2. somehow finds me slightly scummy even though he previously thought that my case was based on a misunderstanding (and went to extra lengths to state that he did not FOS anyone yet), 3. Some sort of mafia conspiracy theory out of left field what?? 4. Which he backs off saying 'I think I might have read too much into it." So, he finally makes analyses on people, but only the two most active and controversial ones, and doesn't come to any solid conclusions. He makes a really weird statement regarding mafia alterior motives that doesn't make any sense coming from a town's perspective, but comes naturally to a mafia who is trying to spin scum motivations on townies. Summary1. He's pro-actively defensive 2. Justifies his own actions instead of trying to make pro-town actions 3. Defensive Aggression 4. Inconsistency regarding a neutral/suspicion-throwing playstyle 5. Attacks the two most controversial posters with a questionable theory for townies to think of that he just kind of throws out there. 6. Still no solid reads, analysis or suspicions despite (kind of??) conceding that not throwing out suspicions is anti-town. ##vote alan133
In defense of her actions suki attempts to point out that part of her reasoning behind the trackd00r attack was "to get the ball rolling." This seems like a catch-all defense for scummy actions.
She then pressures alan133 for making controversial/confusing statements. I think this is a little more justified here because I believe alan's logic was a little flawed. But still, are you noticing a pattern? Suki pressured two players who looked weak from their first posts. Attacking weak/illogical/confusing players is not a town motivation. It's a scum motivation attempting to get a mislynch.
Next, a quick snippet she posted about HeavOnEarth:
+ Show Spoiler +---snip
About HeavOnEarth:
HeavOn's attack against Golden is weak, and his offhanded comment on MouldyJeb is simplistic. His points against Crossfire are thought out and straightforward.
While he has not taken a strong stance against anyone, he's also not been wishy washy. He's also kind of aggravating, mocking and provoking MJ and golden while waiting for their responses. He hasn't contributed much, especially in the way of the major cases of the day, which is a big point against him. I feel HeavOn isn't as suspicious as people are making him out to be, and am waiting for his response on topics such as me, alan113 and crossfire before making a decision.
In this, she criticizes HeavOn's play while also posting a soft defense of him. It looks like she was trying to slow down the bandwagon on him while still leaving herself open to bussing him.
Another snippet in which she addresses sciberbia's pressure on her:
+ Show Spoiler +---snip
I'm confused why sciberbia would be so suspicious of me. Perhaps its bias from the previous game when I was mafia, but I don't feel I've been playing in a scummy way.
His points on my defense is basically that I was being non-transparent. Another way to look at it is I used the wrong wording and I'm more concerned about scumhunting than pursuing and discussing moot topics. In any case, my defense is what it is.
The part about looking bold is just WIFOM and not very helpful at this point.
Notice how she plants the idea of bias in other people's reads on her. It seems like a way to defend herself without actually addressing the points brought against her. She also dismisses her comments on appearing bold as WIFOM, another way of deflecting pressure off of her comments. To be fair, she had spent a good bit of time defending herself D1 so this point in and of itself is not particularly damning.
Next up, a scumslip perhaps?
+ Show Spoiler +LET THE GALLOWS RUN RED!!!!! :OOOOO
..I've been feeling jittery all day. It's seriously more effective than any amount of caffiene >_<;
I find it odd that suki has attacked me so harshly for being nervous when it's pretty obvious that she knows there is good reason for being nervous before a lynch. After all it seems like she was pretty nervous too. Double standard much?
I'm taking a quick break to eat. I'll leave you guys with the post that gave me pause and messed with my brain for the entirety of the game.
+ Show Spoiler +Yeah. Welcome to bizarro bus world. You're here already you just don't know it yet
Both roflwaffle and heavonearth do not strike me as that sophisticated of players. Thus, I don't think that there was any plan for cooperation from the start between the two dead scum and our last remaining one.
The most likely scenario is that Scum #3 is a strong player, who decided that it would be in his best interest to bus both of his teammates early to gain extreme townie cred. This strategy worked well in XV with Xatalos taking the win, although he did make some slips early on that could have exposed him if people had looked into him more in depth. Of course, an early bus or even double bus is so risky for mafia that it seems really unlikely, but that is the situation we are in now.
It doesn't matter if you believe me now. When I flip, you can come back to these words and think carefully.
---
The most important lesson to be learned in mafia XV was that the pattern of night kills, and townie's impressions of night kills, was very important to discovering that Xatalos was the last mafia.
If player X was heavily tunneling player Y, and player X gets shot, does that mean player Y was scum? or maybe thats just what scum wants you to think. The town attitude in XV was that decyphering the meaning behind night kills was so WIFOMy that it wasn't worth doing. This lead to mafia being able to shoot the strongest player every night without fear of having the night shot analysed. At the very end, Xatalos shot the one person who was against him, thus securing a win because he knew the other two remaining players wouldn't analyse the shot and realize that the shot only made sense if he made it, not the #1 suspect at the time.
We saw austinmcc get shot N1. Someone will get shot N2. These shots have meaning, and just because it's WIFOMy doesn't mean its not worth discussing.
If the last remaining mafia was bold enough to start the game with a double bus, they most likely won't slip, and they might not even have any suspicious behaviour if they are good enough. The last remaining source of information is the pattern of NK's. Don't forget that.
@ suki
Huge credit goes to you for that post. It was really brilliant. That whole "bizarro bus world" comment and your confidence in yourself, even to the point of getting lynched, is a huge credit to your play. I'm not even waiting until the end of the game. I tip my hat to you. I will keep your play in mind when I roll scum in the future.
##Vote: suki
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I'll be waiting for your post on the ways suki slipped up, milton. I'll be back before the deadline to read them, but until then:
Don't worry, suki, I got your back.
##Vote Miltonkram
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Just saw your post milton. I don't have time to read it now. I'll be back right before the deadline to read it and make a final judgment.
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Ok Crossfire. The case mostly deals with D1 stuff, since that's when I feel she made her major errors.
Also, please keep in mind that your opinion towards me has been pretty constant for a while.
Suki has already pointed out how a scum me could still be motivated to NK sciberbia. By that coin, suki's motivation in NK'ing sciberbia would have been to kill him, and then point out exactly what she pointed out.
If I'm scum, I had the option of killing either you or sciberbia. Do you honestly think I had the confidence to convince you of my case, even with NK implications in my favor?
Anyway, I'll be back shortly.
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In defense of her actions suki attempts to point out that part of her reasoning behind the trackd00r attack was "to get the ball rolling." This seems like a catch-all defense for scummy actions.
I only used that reasoning once, and everyone generally seems to agree that it did get the ball rolling. You're putting too much weight on this first case.
She then pressures alan133 for making controversial/confusing statements. I think this is a little more justified here because I believe alan's logic was a little flawed. But still, are you noticing a pattern? Suki pressured two players who looked weak from their first posts. Attacking weak/illogical/confusing players is not a town motivation. It's a scum motivation attempting to get a mislynch.
Actually my case on alan was also focused around him not contributing to town, which definitely have scum motivations.
In this, she criticizes HeavOn's play while also posting a soft defense of him. It looks like she was trying to slow down the bandwagon on him while still leaving herself open to bussing him.
This is one of the points that sciberbia and other people suspicious of me like to point out. My defense was and is that I was focused on alan at the time, and a quick look over HeavOnEarth's filter didn't read especially scummy to me.
Notice how she plants the idea of bias in other people's reads on her. It seems like a way to defend herself without actually addressing the points brought against her. She also dismisses her comments on appearing bold as WIFOM, another way of deflecting pressure off of her comments. To be fair, she had spent a good bit of time defending herself D1 so this point in and of itself is not particularly damning.
Eh. Nothing to say here. I was genuinely confused why s0lstice was targetting me. I had previously addressed his case on me in this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15079153
I find it odd that suki has attacked me so harshly for being nervous when it's pretty obvious that she knows there is good reason for being nervous before a lynch. After all it seems like she was pretty nervous too. Double standard much?
Haha. I quoted a post from Xatalos that was the exact type of 'nervous' post that you made - one that's made from scum motivations. Comparing your nervous post and my 'nervous' post is like comparing apples and oranges.
Also your comment at the end... Well in like 4 hours you'll see that my post was made with genuine town perspective :o
Neways.
@Crossfire - Glad you support me. I think we got this in the bag.
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On June 27 2012 05:05 Miltonkram wrote:
Ok Crossfire. The case mostly deals with D1 stuff, since that's when I feel she made her major errors.
Also, please keep in mind that your opinion towards me has been pretty constant for a while.
Suki has already pointed out how a scum me could still be motivated to NK sciberbia. By that coin, suki's motivation in NK'ing sciberbia would have been to kill him, and then point out exactly what she pointed out.
If I'm scum, I had the option of killing either you or sciberbia. Do you honestly think I had the confidence to convince you of my case, even with NK implications in my favor?
Anyway, I'll be back shortly.
See, now we get into the real WIFOM-y stuff. I mean, this is such a sub-optimal NK for milton, there's no way he would have made it. Therefore he must be town. Therefore even though you have a strong town read of suki, you should vote suki cuz clearly she's the only one who would have NK'd sciberbia.
See, it goes both ways. That's why I said, don't make your final decision purely based on this last NK. Look at all the scummy and suspicious things Milton has done for the whole game, compared to my play, and judge for yourself.
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---snip
Haha. I quoted a post from Xatalos that was the exact type of 'nervous' post that you made - one that's made from scum motivations. Comparing your nervous post and my 'nervous' post is like comparing apples and oranges.
Also your comment at the end... Well in like 4 hours you'll see that my post was made with genuine town perspective :o
So my "nervous" post was scummy because I tried to get HeavOn to post before he died? I don't see how trying to get a player on the lynching block to post is scummy behavior, whether that player is scum or town.
More analysis will be incoming.
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Just gonna re-post this.
His nervousness pre-lynch of HeavOn:
@ Heaven
There are a lot of people jumping on your case really quickly. Not gonna lie, it's making me a little nervous. Please post some sort of defense or at the very least what kind of reads you have on players whenever you have the time.
This quote reminds me a LOT of a quote by Xatalos in Mafia XV:
Suki, where are you when you need to defend yourself? The bandwagon on you is gathering steam, but you're nowhere to be seen. And I don't even think you're Mafia. Do a favor for everyone and show up right now.
This was what Xatalos posted in the game when there was a bandwagon growing on me while I was away. Basically, it's a last-ditch effort for mafia to tell their teammate to post, JUST IN CASE they weren't checking the mafia QT but were checking the main thread.
When Milton posted this, it stuck out to me as really odd. Now I think this is a pure scum slip, disguised to be a 'helpful townie' post. There is definite mafia motivation for this post, but not really any townie motivation.
Now contrast this with his certainty of trackd00r and unforgiven being scum. There has been no hesitation in his reads, no questioning of who could possibly be mafia. The person on the chopping block has been his main read every time.
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I dunno what you're trying to pull Milton. Stop trying to spin my play as scummy cuz it's not.
You're fighting a losing battle going after me cuz I'm green, green as grass.
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No suki, you're trying to spin my play as scummy. I know I'm town, and I'm pretty sure Crossfire is town too. That makes you scum, and I will pursue you as such.
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@ Crossfire
I'm going to stop addressing suki directly. Arguing with a scum player is like running your head against a brick wall. I've got more important things to focus on. I hope I've answered your concerns on the "nervous" issue. My point with that post was to get information out of HeavOnEarth, whether he was scum or town.
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I've got a few things for you to think about Crossfire.
- If I NK'd sciberbia, I was going all-in on winning the WIFOM war in your head. Sciberbia was much more receptive to the stances and viewpoints I took. Even though a NK of you would have reflected badly on me, I'm still pretty sure sciberbia was going to go for the suki lynch come day cycle. Suki's best bet was NK'ing sciberbia and then hoping that she could convince you to keep your stance. Basically it comes down to this, do you think suki made the optimal scum play or do you think I made the suboptimal scum play?
- Suki pressured sciberbia pretty heavily over the night cycle and then backed off. I'm thinking she wanted to test the waters of a sciberbia mislynch, and then realizing the attack wouldn't work, she backed off and decided he was better off as a NK. Think about it. It makes sense.
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I've got a better plan for scum suki: kill sciberbia off waaaay sooner. Honestly you must think I'm daft to allow sciberbia to live so long if I was scum.
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@ Crossfire
I've got to leave for work.
I'm sorry that things are turning out this way. I completely understand how you think I'm scum. Many of the points that you and suki made about me are valid, and it's a testament to how much I need to improve my town play. This loss isn't on you, it's on me.
Suki played with a much greater sense of urgency than me after D1. I confess I got a little complacent considering the great odds we had after N1. I can see how that makes her look quite a bit townier by comparison.
I'm kicking myself for letting her frame me, but she played a really good game and deserves the win.
@ suki
Good job. I can't help but feel really disappointed at the way this is turning out, but don't let that take away from your win. You definitely put the work in to win this game. Enjoy the win, you earned it! You get a very well deserved GG from me.
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Dude that is not a scummy thing to say at all. Your words should be 'damn you guys caught me. GG town, you won.'
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I'll be back in an hour to see the final results.
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Nope, it's not. GG to you because you're winning this thing. Don't kick a guy when he's down please.
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Oh and Suki, by “I got your back,” I mean I’m standing behind you forcing you to the gallows where I will be able to watch your lifeless, limp body dangle from the noose after the lynching has occurred.
##Unvote
##Vote suki
I had a plan too, Milton. It just happened to be a more long term plan.
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Final votecount:
suki:
Miltonkram
Crossfire
Miltonkram:
suki
suki to be lynched. Endgame coming up.
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Endgame
It had been pouring down long into that dark sinister night. suki was standing on the sidewalk trying to hide from the big cold drops under her indigo umbrella. In the past few weeks she had seen many people executed but this time it was special. This time was the last.
At long last she saw a car make a right turn onto the boulevard. It was the only car in this ghost town and she knew who the driver was. It pulled up next to her and she opened the passenger seat door, closed her umbrella and hurried in, eager to get out of the rain. The car was already going again before she got a chance to greet her chauffeur, Crossfire.
"Good evening" she said
Crossfire didn't respond. He had a solemn and somber look on his face but how could she blame him? All these executions could break the spirit of even the strongest of men. But this would be the last she thought. Crossfire and her had decided to have Miltonkram executed on this gloomy night and that would end the bloodshed.
"Good evening suki" he finally replied
A lightning bolt split the sky in two and briefly lit the car up. Suddenly suki felt unsettled. Was it the headlights of the car falling onto the road a bit further ahead than she was used to? Was it the new smell that she had never noticed before in this car? suki turned her head to look at Crossfire but then she sensed a presence in the car. A presence in the back seat that she had known nothing about until now.
"Yes, good evening suki" she heard in Miltonkram's voice
The blood froze in her veins. She almost said something but stopped herself. She knew what was going to happen. She knew that she had been tricked.
They hung her from a cedar tree in the gloomy dark.
Crossfire breathed a sigh of relief with her last twitch. A huge burden had been lifted from his shoulders. He knew that she had to be the final member of the mafia that they had been looking for for so long. Miltonkram turned around to go back to the car and Crossfire let him go. He knew, but he still had to be sure.
He took out a needle he had stuck in his shirt for this purpose and reached up to her hand. It was still warm. He drove the needle into her thumb but he never saw the color of the blood. Miltonkram had calmly walked up behind him, crowbar in hand. When the needle pierced her skin, the crowbar smashed his skull.
Miltonkram spent the rest of the night drinking the finest whiskey, smoking the best cigars while listening to Frank Sinatra. "This is to you HeavOnEarth" he said and took a big sip of the rich amber liquid, "and this is to you roflwaffles55" he said and inhaled heavily on the fine Cuban specimen.
"It's good to be mafia!"
Mafia Victory!
suki the Vanilla Townie still hangs from that cedar tree
Crossfire the Vanilla Townie still lies next to that cedar tree
Miltonkram the Mafia Goon has been keepin' it real ever since
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Thanks to all for playing and thanks to the coaches and thanks to zelblade for cohosting.
I'm going to request a 1 game ban for Mouldy Jeb for replacing out without a valid reason on day1 and a 3 game ban for O.Golden_ne for just disappearing and not even answering my PM.
Mafia QT
Observer QT
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omg no way! wp miltonkram. ugh we never win >_<
thanks hosts
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
I really enjoyed watching this game. Much congrats to suki for pulling things together after some initial pressure, and my other student austin for getting shot! It's rare to see so close a game, even if it's still a mafia victory.
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GG Milton. You played well. I honestly thought suki was more scummy than you. Sorry suki, I honestly couldn't get past your day 1 play.
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wow, just wow. I am floored. I was so wrong on Milton/suki it is a cosmic joke. Good job Milton!
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Props to milton for actually killing sciberbia. That takes balls.
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Ok. Now I have to ask. What should I have looked for to see that Milton was scummy?
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
GG, was really fun to watch!
And fuck yeah I can brag about "called it" :D
Well played by all of you!
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Looked really townie to me. idk dude. he played very well. Only scummy thing imo was his being relatively less active.
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This game was seriously a ball buster. Milton going rambo made this one for the books. I'm sad for the loss but I really got to tip my hat to you Milton.
If I have the time I hope to write some analysis on the game. Of the four I've played so far, it's been my favorite
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
On June 27 2012 09:08 Crossfire99 wrote:
Ok. Now I have to ask. What should I have looked for to see that Milton was scummy?
Well suki's case is pretty good on him. In general his play after D1 was always going with the flow of the thread or some easy case (Golden), he never pushed his own agenda and comfortably stayed under the radar while town killed itself due to lack of clues after disposing of 2/3 of the scumteam.
Slips from Milton were really rare and IIRC only really present in D1 (look at the "pre-lynch-panic" for example.
Generally said he played a lot like Xatalos did in XV ^^
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On June 27 2012 09:12 ShiaoPi wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2012 09:08 Crossfire99 wrote:
Ok. Now I have to ask. What should I have looked for to see that Milton was scummy? Well suki's case is pretty good on him. In general his play after D1 was always going with the flow of the thread or some easy case (Golden), he never pushed his own agenda and comfortably stayed under the radar while town killed itself due to lack of clues after disposing of 2/3 of the scumteam. Slips from Milton were really rare and IIRC only really present in D1 (look at the "pre-lynch-panic" for example. Generally said he played a lot like Xatalos did in XV ^^
I felt that the prelynch panic was townie. Like it was obvious by that point that heavon was going to die because both rofl and the other scum (milton) voted for him. Ugh. I better go reread suki's case.
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
btw, NMMXVIII is looking for some replacements! pm kitaman27 if you're down. We just started N1.
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
suki, I was seriously impressed by you this game. Rough luck at the end.
Fucking awesome game all round. Really high quality, really excellent. Just enjoyed this a lot actually.
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Sorry town I feel like I kinda screwed us over this game. Too many bad reads.
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Sorry, suki. I just want to say I'm so sorry. I legitimately thought you were town for a lot of the game and it wasn't until the end, when I got swayed by other people's cases and I seriously didn't think a scum milton would actually let me live because I was suspicious of him for so long while defending you. Ugh. I WIFOMed myself.
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Pretty well played all. I'm actually in agreement with solstice, this was my favorite newbie game so far and I didn't even get to play much of it.
Both the thread and the obs chat had some good activity and were just pleasant to follow.
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@crossfire
Not your fault dude. More my fault. If you had been NK'd we would have lynched suki. Lynching suki is the sensible choice for you on the last day.
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wat
That's crazy, 2 mafia dead N1 yet town can't win? >< that's the worst feeling...
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
very helpful ET
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Can we have Obs and Mafia QT's please?
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Awesommmmeeee! Well done milton, you pulled it out! :D
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i think he meant it well.... somehow
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On June 27 2012 09:41 suki wrote:
Can we have Obs and Mafia QT's please?
I imagine the Mafia QT got pretty quiet pretty fast lol
oh no wait nvm coaching ;_;
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On June 27 2012 09:41 suki wrote:
Can we have Obs and Mafia QT's please?
sure
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Yea I agree, I wouldn't feel too bad Crossfire. I feel WIFOM becomes so powerful in the 2v1 scenario that it's very easy to talk yourself in to the wrong conclusion. If I was in your shoes I would have lynched suki too. The town play was still excellent overall. Everyone did a fantastic job. Milton was just one step ahead of us (more like 1000 steps for some of us, read:me).
And to Suki, who I mercilessly pressured, and read wrong/right/wrong/right/wrong in that order, I owe you a beer or something. I want to thank you for not getting discouraged and playing your ass off. You made the right read when it mattered, and did the #1a most important thing to do as town: establishing your townieness...I was just too thick-headed to notice. You contributed a lot to our positive town atmosphere. + Show Spoiler +here's your beer! ![[image loading]](http://www.ohbeautifulbeer.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/FatTire12ozBottle.jpg)
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On June 27 2012 09:40 EchelonTee wrote:
wat
That's crazy, 2 mafia dead N1 yet town can't win? >< that's the worst feeling...
Yea but it's not as easy as it seems. We had no more help from blues, so with random lynching, it's only like 4/9 chance of town winning. Milton didn't really tie himself to either flipped scum, and our reads just weren't good enough
Edit: 4/9 is definitely too low. I suck at math. probably more like 3/4. So we just had anti-reads
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Also if you want to see why Milton looks scummy just read my case against him. Seriously, the signs are all there.
Several slips during day 1.
Safe bussing of his teammates
Nervousness pre-lynch
Bandwagoning and going with the flow of the thread
Lack of consistency regarding reads
If you analysed the NK's as well, you'll notice that the theme of the game was that scum were going for kills that didn't really make sense. Thus you can expect WIFOMy stuff at the end.
I don't blame you for reading me as scum based on my Day 1 play. Had a bit of bad luck regarding my read on HeavOnEarth.. My case against alan too could be seen as a serious attempt to get a mislynch. And I guess my continuous cases against people who bled green lol.
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Not to discredit Milton though. He played an excellent game for sure.
Actually to be honest, at the end his little spiel where he said GG to me almost convinced me that he was town, and that Crossfire had just played a sick sick game as mafia. It was very sincere.
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I'm not saying you guys suck; I'm saying you guys played really well but just narrowly lost, hence "worst feeling".
Definitely, well played by Milton, he improved his scum play by a lot. He was hella obvious last time, so this is a massive improvement.
No one contacted me for coaching so I'm sad.
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On June 27 2012 09:58 EchelonTee wrote:
I'm not saying you guys suck; I'm saying you guys played really well but just narrowly lost, hence "worst feeling".
Definitely, well played by Milton, he improved his scum play by a lot. He was hella obvious last time, so this is a massive improvement.
No one contacted me for coaching so I'm sad.
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/Ik6QS.png)
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Sorry, ET. You had the bad luck of being third from the top and I didn't have enough time to get to you.
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On June 27 2012 09:40 EchelonTee wrote:
wat
That's crazy, 2 mafia dead N1 yet town can't win? >< that's the worst feeling...
Indeed, especially after trackd00r flips veteran in Day 2 lynch..
Is it me or everyone's last reads were mislynch? xD
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
hey, milton was my final read
unlike everyone else i saw his giving up thing as scummy
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@marvellosity
I meant the players who post a last case in the game xD
Austin - ???
s0Lstice - Unforgiven_ve
alan133 - Golden_ve
sciberbia - suki
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Yeah, this was a good game It was full of second-guessing, WIFOM and conflicting reads... It's quite telling that there was a lot of disagreement even in ObsQT. Congratulations Miltonkram, you really deserved the win! You had a much harder spot to play from than I did in the last game, yet you won with clever trickery You were among my top lynch candidates for the whole game, though, but managed to stay out of the #1 spot for most of the game... And I might have even lynched suki over you today (considering the last NK)...
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On June 27 2012 10:28 alan133 wrote:
@marvellosity
I meant the players who post a last case in the game xD
Austin - ???
s0Lstice - Unforgiven_ve
alan133 - Golden_ve
sciberbia - suki
To be fair, it's not that easy to guess correctly when there's only one Mafia left and several players appear equally scummy
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Actually if any experienced players can give me a short comment on my play this game, particularly Day 1, I'd really appreciate it :\
I really don't want to be a hindrance to town in my next game by sticking out like such a sore thumb... Or is that just a side-effect of this hyper-aggressive style that I played with this game?
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I'd like to see an analysis.
I feel like if trackd00r and Golden did not ditch us with "omg u suspect me I keep quiet and make u cry" we would have won this much easily. Is this common in TL Mafia games? :/
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Lol i rule. Gg milton, you should thank alan, sbiberbia and suki ;D
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By the way, while I was examining Crossfire I came across something I thought was funny.
On June 14 2012 02:02 Crossfire99 wrote:
Be careful roflwaffle, votes are only easily removable if you are around to remove them. You never know what might happen. Also, votes early on in the day cycle that don't really mean much followed by complete disappearance during a controversial lynch can be scum tactic to avoid making mistakes in a heated debate that occurs last minute.
The irony of this statement is hilarious :D You never know what might happen indeed.
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On June 27 2012 11:04 alan133 wrote:
I feel like if trackd00r and Golden did not ditch us with "omg u suspect me I keep quiet and make u cry" we would have won this much easily. Is this common in TL Mafia games? :/
Not as common as I'd expect. Many players have a strong emotional response to being accused, and under that condition it can be incredibly difficult to make yourself do the right thing, which is to find town a better target. It's a lot easier to suicide.
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I will say this whitout any bad feeling or troll attempt. Really, pleasae dont take it in a bad way
It wasnt a deserved victory, it wasnt a “amazing play“ by milton, town deserve to win.
We lost not because of mafia play, but because of overeagger townies triying to be superdetectives
And not seeing the simplest clues, by this time some of you should have a better understanding of
The game and how some people play it.
You are so full of “indepth“ analisys bullshit that you want to belive for catching a mafia you need a columbus,
That players should make extra long and colorful post talking about hypotethic and useless scenarios, and spend a gazillion hours playing to belive them.
You talk A LOT about wifom situations and you dont really have any idea how to do it, the rules says you have to play to win,
sometimes that means you should consider another situations besides the ones you see.
Keep it simple, you arent playing whit masters of disguise in here. Dont try to lead if you dont know how to do it, people will blindly follow You if you have the littlest iniciative, so please, use this carefully, in game and real life.
All in all, GG, it really was a fun game whit a unexpected end.
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
I don't know if you can really say town deserved to win-- town lost. It wasn't like the final scum player was super obvious or played like dick or something and town played well but something interfered. Like, if town played bad, and scum played ok, and town lost, then town deserved to lose.
In fact, if people "overplayed" or were superdetectives or whatever and tripped over themselves, that's even more to show, imo, that maybe town didn't deserve to win, maybe town deserved to lose by a slim margin.
Because that's what happened.
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Just wanted to shout out to suki really quick. I'm pretty sure she was the one who spotted the little scumslips that I made. I didn't even consider the "nervous" post a scumslip until she pointed out that I approached the trackd00r and Unforgiven lynches with a completely different attitude. Really good job.
I posted my thoughts as the game went on in the mafia QT. I'd appreciate it if people would read through them and critique the way I approached each situation. Unfortunately, I really was crunched for time after the D1/N1 cycle so I wasn't able to be as active as I wanted.
GG everybody. Rolling scum against s0Lsctice, sciberbia, and suki is a complete nightmare. You guys make my scummy life so much harder. I respect your play a lot :D
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My own play
Town was at a very good advantage in day 2 and I was confirmed blue, I feel like I took whatever advantage that we had for granted and started producing noises and sloppy reads. Additionally the pressured applied by rolf and suki in day 1 contributes to my "super paranoia detective" mode and causing me to throw suspicion on people by making very bias reads. (the opposite of being "neutral", which I am accused of.) Reading HeavonEarth correctly also contributed to my ego and hence playing more carelessly. I feel like I am partially to blame for the lost. I didn't even put Milton out in any of my reads.
Always shoot scum
I debated myself if I should keep rolfwaffle alive so he can slip the 3rd scum, but I think killing him in night 1 is certainly the correct call. There is no guarantee he would slip; he may produce more noise if anything, and we spend one whole day cycle just to lynch a target that everyone agrees.
Miltonkram
To be totally honest, you were one of the person that I have no reads throughout the game prior to my death (even after death). You never appear especially townie nor scummy, and there is always someone scummier than you out there. I always ran out of time when I do my reads, and I always pick yours to skip. I don't blame Crossfire for lynching Suki over you, since I would do the same. I read your thoughts on the game in the scum QT, and I think your sciberbia's kill is excellent, seeing what he wrote in his last post, looks like you nailed it perfectly.
[/list]
Things I learnt
- Screw taking a stance without much evidence. I think I was misunderstood when I say I wanted to stay neutral. I didn't mean I wanted to passively follow lynches without making reads myself. What I meant was I don't want to jump to conclusions ignoring all other possible explanation, which is something I did in this game.
- Townies can act scummy too.
- Players who occasionally throw cases were all townies - Suki, s0Lstice, sciberbia, although I can see scum throwing cases to lead mislynch after mislynch.
- Players who do not response after getting on the lynch list was not all scums - Golden, trackd00r
- Last scum never pushed for a lynch - Although he planned to do so according to mafia QT.
- Last scum feel anxious about a scum lynch, but remains calm for the subsequent lynch.
- Cops and Jail keeper are more powerful blue roles
- Godfather exist doesn't mean Cops must exist. In this game, scums has no powers at all while townie has some "weaker" powers, although Veteran giving up really gives us a huge blow, else I would say this setup is slightly town sided.
- Do not be lazy and skip the same person over and over again or refuse to look at other people.
- Do not jump into conclusion that one of your townie read is actually scum, especially when there are still people in the "grey area".
- I suck. I am aware if I was not a confirmed blue I would be lynched already. However, that does not mean I should act in this manner even though I know I won't be lynched.
I can see why townies are depressed. Hell, I would be lying if I say was not. Unforgiven's analysis really nailed what I feel about myself looking back at the game. Trying to play super detective or lead the town when I don't know how, and throws out cases that I aren't even sure myself and pretended that I was- Suki and Sciberbia's was "desperation" case because I thought scums is smart enough to hide in my "townie read" group. In reality, last scum is in my "not sure about alignment" zone all the time, yet I did not pay attention to them.
GG, I hope there's another game I can play. The next two newbie game is already full, I hope there is a new one soon.
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Was a great game to cohost, thanks to prplhz (and sorry for abandoing you during the last couple of days ) and everyone else. Play was pretty good too
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On June 27 2012 13:40 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
I will say this whitout any bad feeling or troll attempt. Really, pleasae dont take it in a bad way
It wasnt a deserved victory, it wasnt a “amazing play“ by milton, town deserve to win.
We lost not because of mafia play, but because of overeagger townies triying to be superdetectives
And not seeing the simplest clues, by this time some of you should have a better understanding of
The game and how some people play it.
You are so full of “indepth“ analisys bullshit that you want to belive for catching a mafia you need a columbus,
That players should make extra long and colorful post talking about hypotethic and useless scenarios, and spend a gazillion hours playing to belive them.
You talk A LOT about wifom situations and you dont really have any idea how to do it, the rules says you have to play to win,
sometimes that means you should consider another situations besides the ones you see.
Keep it simple, you arent playing whit masters of disguise in here. Dont try to lead if you dont know how to do it, people will blindly follow You if you have the littlest iniciative, so please, use this carefully, in game and real life.
All in all, GG, it really was a fun game whit a unexpected end.
I pretty much disagree with everything you said here good sir.
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
On June 27 2012 13:27 jaj22 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2012 11:04 alan133 wrote:
I feel like if trackd00r and Golden did not ditch us with "omg u suspect me I keep quiet and make u cry" we would have won this much easily. Is this common in TL Mafia games? :/ Not as common as I'd expect. Many players have a strong emotional response to being accused, and under that condition it can be incredibly difficult to make yourself do the right thing, which is to find town a better target. It's a lot easier to suicide.
zing!
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Self-Analysis
This game was a big playstyle experiment for me. I went into the game with two thoughts - be bold, be aggressive - and I think at the very least I accomplished that. I really expected to come under fire due to this playstyle. What I did not expect was how I reacted - which was pretty much begging for town to continue analysing in the face of my impending lynch. I also didn't expect to completely whiff every read I made (minus the final one bahaha. But between Crossfire and Milton it was kind of obvious).
I also did not expect to live until the end of the game. It's a pretty horrible feeling to know that you'll never be NK'd because you're so valuable to scum. Made me want to just give up so many times, so that everybody would have a chance to open their eyes.
This definitely is not an optimal style for town play. I probably discouraged a LOT of people simply by building such huge cases against them. Alan responded well, trackd00r did not. Focusing on one person the way I did also means I diluted my cases with actions that weren't really scummy but simply fit in with the player possibly being scum.. And I ended up more or less leading all the mislynches in the game, while letting the final scum slip through my fingers.
Also, I was too easily swayed by other people. Which sounds funny coming from me, I guess, but sciberbia had pegged Milton as second most suspicious and I let the cases of unforgiven AND golden just pass me by. I should have pushed Milton a lot harder, although I figured that if I ever got into a 3-way MYLO situation, I would know who the last scum was (after getting rid of unforgiven and golden), and be able to persuade the other town to see the light.
Ultimately, I like this aggressive style, but I think I'll tone down my giant cases and keep a broader range of suspects at any given time. I like the idea of tunnelling, but it has so many drawbacks that I'll try to use that tactic sparingly.
I think if I had been lynched in place of unforgiven or golden, sciberbia would have led the way to a town victory. I also had a look at my Day 1 while going over the final cases, and even though I hadn't meant to, I have to admit I did look pretty scummy. So s0lstice and sciberbia and Crossfire, if you're feeling bad, don't feel bad. I should have played Day 1 better.
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
Day 1 is hard yo
Looking forward to playing with you in some games, suki.
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Ah, but you /outed in LVI.
Actually I'm kinda having second thoughts about LVI :O It's so huge.
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
Full-sized games are very challenging.
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I now feel compelled to cheer for HeavOn, who's currently bawsing it up in the TSL qualifier.
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On June 27 2012 22:16 suki wrote:
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I think if I had been lynched in place of unforgiven or golden, sciberbia would have led the way to a town victory. I also had a look at my Day 1 while going over the final cases, and even though I hadn't meant to, I have to admit I did look pretty scummy. So s0lstice and sciberbia and Crossfire, if you're feeling bad, don't feel bad. I should have played Day 1 better.
No, he never was in the right track, he was closed in his own analysis and didnt wanted to see other scenarios, he was the main reason for town lost. alan just got to spersayian level on my ranking list because of admitting the mistakes he did, now he will be very aware of this. sciberbia is just good to write long analysis (same as solstice) when their reads are wrong that townie will get lynched no matter what, because people will buy this style of posting as "yep he's right" whitout really doing some analysis for themselves.
3 games i've played, 3 games that has happened the exact same thing. People would follow the best poster discarding their analysis, gut feeling, because they think it wouldnt be enough to convince this players.
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Do you have a mute button?
Sciberbia being the main reason for the town's loss is ridiculous. He nailed 2 out of the 3 scum in the first cycle.
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Not enough to win = a loss?
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I'd like to get people's opinion on Crossfire's play during the final night and day. Not the part where he suddenly switched votes, that was a pretty obvious mistake, the parts before. I liked how he took a hard stance against me and let me know that I was in his sights even though he didn't necessarily mean what he was saying. I think it's a good play for the following reasons:
- If suki had been scum, Crossfire's support of her could have caused her to become overconfident, possibly causing a slip.
- Since I was scum, Crossfire's pressure could have caused me to panic (it did) and slip up. I can't tell you how many posts I had to keep myself from posting out of panic that would have been slips.
I think if he had stated that he was for lynching a player, but in reality left himself open to both possibilities, he could have gotten a ton of information. I say this because I'd be interested in adapting some form of that into my own town play. Crossfire, is there anything you think you should have changed about your approach to the final lynch? Are there any vets who know a way of tweaking his approach in order for it to be more effective?
@ suki
Don't blame yourself for pressuring players hard. If they are town, they should be able to explain their actions by simply telling the truth. A town player who doesn't explain their actions or makes bad decisions, such as Unforgiven's VT claim or trackd00r and Golden's decisions not to defend themselves, does no credit to the town, and in fact actively hurts town. I say this not to shame them, but to show the responsibility they have to their fellow townies. You can't be blamed for their play.
The only thing I think needs improvement is your D1 play, but like marv said, D1 is really hard. I'm a big fan of how you played this game. Hopefully we'll be on the same team in the future because being opposite you is really stressful.
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What could I improve from my day 1 play?
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On June 28 2012 06:08 Miltonkram wrote:
I'd like to get people's opinion on Crossfire's play during the final night and day. Not the part where he suddenly switched votes, that was a pretty obvious mistake, the parts before. I liked how he took a hard stance against me and let me know that I was in his sights even though he didn't necessarily mean what he was saying. I think it's a good play for the following reasons:
- If suki had been scum, Crossfire's support of her could have caused her to become overconfident, possibly causing a slip.
- Since I was scum, Crossfire's pressure could have caused me to panic (it did) and slip up. I can't tell you how many posts I had to keep myself from posting out of panic that would have been slips.
I think if he had stated that he was for lynching a player, but in reality left himself open to both possibilities, he could have gotten a ton of information. I say this because I'd be interested in adapting some form of that into my own town play. Crossfire, is there anything you think you should have changed about your approach to the final lynch? Are there any vets who know a way of tweaking his approach in order for it to be more effective?
Ok, I'll just explain my whole plan near the end, so you can understand what i was doing. I was always more suspicious of suki than I let on, but it wasn't really even suspicion, it was just a hint of doubt. I honestly felt she played completely townie day 2 on, but her day 1 play was suspicious to me (and others). I originally had written it off as just being a too aggressive townie. See my night 1 post where I analyze the lynch. I had suki correctly pegged as town there. From day 2 on I just went with my original read that suki was town based on the lynch and her continuing aggressive and open play. People kept on being suspicious of her, so I thought that if she kept on surviving the lynches and nks I would have to revisit her. Basically, if she and I both survived to lylo I would need to take a real hard look at her because everyone was suspicious of her. I would say it was around night 3/day 4 where I decided I would defend suki hardcore to accomplish 2 things: 1) I thought she was town so I actually wanted to defend her and 2) if she was actually scum and I survived to lylo I would have the advantage of being able to trick her into thinking I would defend her til death, while in reality I would be suspicious of her.
Ok, so everything happened according to my plan. I continued to pressure you milton, while defending suki. I can't remember but I think it was right at the end of night 4 or beginning of day 5 when I was posting, but I found 1 post from her which pretty much convinced me she was scum. I'll have to find it for you suki and edit it in so you can see what changed my mind. I might have looked at it wrong in hindsight, but let me find it first...
Ok I found it. Here it is + Show Spoiler +On June 16 2012 00:01 suki wrote:Show nested quote + Yes, I did vote you, but you forget that votes are easily removable, and the fact that you had to write a sensationalist paragraph in red text rather then just poke through the obvious logical holes in my cases convince me that you have something to lose, whether it be scum, blue, or just poor play.
sciberbia quoted this post and pointed out that he doesn't see any logical holes in rofl's play, and that he doesn't think rofl did either. The part I find strange is not whether or not rofl saw 'logical holes', but how there's an implicit expectation that alan would 'poke through' those 'obvious logical holes'. As a townie you make your cases with as few logical holes as possible so that you can put the most pressure on your target and force out information. You don't want, and certainly don't expect, those holes to be pointed out. As scum, though, you know that your arguments have holes in them, this kind of wording comes out a lot more naturally.
It's also telling that he straight up admits that his case was full of holes, which serves to ease the pressure off of him for making such a weak case (weak in his mind).The list of potential mafia is also very strange. It also has the trait of looking like he's contributing without actually contributing anything at all. Also take a look at this post: Show nested quote +You've defeated yourself in your own argument against me, with the explanation as to why I backed down on alan133. I backed down because I hadn't received any support towards my case. You also defeated yourself by saying that I'm trying to keep myself out of the spotlight, if I wanted that, I wouldn't have been the third person to post a case, let alone one I knew would net me a bunch of flak.
I made the case to put pressure on someone that was lacking any real opinion, whether because he felt that there wasn't enough data to form one, or because he was hiding from the spotlight himself.
The evidence or suspicions that you have brought up can be answered so easily I'm not sure why you didn't come up with them yourself. I wrote down early on in my personal notes how the 'you defeated yourself' lines seemed like a very scum-like thing to do. Rather than simply defending himself, he uses Milton's words against him, to further discredit Milton. I find that full of scum motivation. After all, if you can use a player's words against them, it feels like your case is a lot stronger. "I backed down because I hadn't received any support towards my case" is also not very townie. Town motivation is to convince people to agree with your case. If you don't get support but you still feel your points are valid, you continue to press. The fact that rofl is so concerned about having support is very fitting for scum. All in all, I agree that rofl looks extremely scummy and the #1 candidate for vig shot or Day 2 lynch. It seems we have reached a strong consensus on who scum #2 is. Before the night is over, I think we should start talking about other candidates for the day 2 lynch to gain a more broad discussion before the night is over. In particular, I would like to ask for opinions on my case against trackd00r. On June 16 2012 04:23 s0Lstice wrote:Alright so there aren't many fish in this sea. The two bad ones are roflewaffles55 and suki. Roflewaffles55I won't rehash. If you are still not convinced go have a look at sciberbia's and alan's cases. This is a done deal in my mind. SukiShe learned a lot from her first game as scum, and it showed this game. She looked pro-town enough for me to set her aside in favor of other endeavors. That said, there is plenty of incriminating evidence in her filter to be had. I'll organize this as best as I can. Let's look at how she has been going after the town win condition: Her case on trackd00r: + Show Spoiler +She divebombs the thread with this accusation as her first post, and then in short order backs down from it when it doesn't gain any traction. On June 14 2012 00:06 suki wrote:
As has been pointed out, the contradiction isn't as severe as I initially thought it was.
##unvote trackd00r
I thought at the very least I could rouse a response from trackd00r, however my case was too weak and I feel that no useful information can be gleamed from people simply agreeing on its flimsiness. On June 14 2012 13:21 suki wrote:
Quite simply you (and several other people after you) answered your question. The motivation is to get the ball rolling some way, any way. I feel I failed a bit in that regard as my attack was so full of holes that there hardly was any discussion developed from it, but it was made with good intentions. On June 14 2012 00:06 suki wrote:
My case on trackd00r was/is a flop, and up until your vote on alan no one has really pointed out anything suspicious about any other player On June 14 2012 13:36 suki wrote:
@sciberbia
I think a lot of your argument stems from the impression that I was absolutely sure trackd00r was scum. I definitely worded my post that way on purpose, in spite of knowing my case wasn't solid.
I was genuinely surprised that my case was as weak as it was. Basically one good post from you was strong enough to let everyone basically say 'yeah, I agree.' My comment that 'at the very least I could rouse a response from trackd00r' was because I thought even if my case was really weak, I could aggravate an interesting reply from trackd00r, but it didn't.
Regarding the contradiction, and the comment that the contradiction isn't as severe as I thought it was. It's simply not taking the time to really think about the topic, after reading the rebuttals and being disappointed. There is no contradiction, it was just me being careless with my choice of words.
Actually, the offhanded and subtly confident way he deflected my attack is a townie point for him in my book, so as it stands I don't suspect trackd00r at all. On June 14 2012 13:36 suki wrote:
As for opening the game, I posted my policy post after the accusation because I wrote the accusation first. I did want to start the thread off boldly, I'll give you that. Look at how she dances around. She explains what was going through her head in 3 different ways: -I knew the case was weak when I posted it -I didn't know the case was weak until people told me after I posted it -I thought my case may have been weak, but I was just trying to get the discussion going. Also that last quote is scum-slip. Sciberbia pointed it out earlier. A townie has one agenda: finding scum. Scum have several agenda: stay alive, sow confusion, cause chaos. Admitting to adhering to an agenda of aggressiveness for it's own sake is very scummy. Suki has addressed this point, calling it WIFOM. Minus her comment on the matter, it would be WIFOM. It is her stated reason for wanting to appear aggressive that makes it a scum-slip instead. She has returned to trackd00r recently, and I'll address that later. -snipped-
I guess the thing I did wrong was I didn't do enough research on you milton and didn't find the scummy things you did to actually be scummy. For example, when I was reading suki's case on you, I disagreed with some points. The first one was the post you made about being nervous for the heavon lynch. I actually thought it worked in your favor because by that time rofl was already voting for heavon, so I thought that clearly the mafia know that heavon is dying day 1 and have decided to jump on the bandwagon, so there is no reason for a scum milton to be nervous because he has already decided that heavon must die. Looking back on it, I realize I didn't compare it to your posts near the other lynches and I didn't take into account that sometimes people can just make a subconscious slip of the tongue. Additionally, I kept on misreading rofl and yours exchange at the beginning. I feel retarded now looking back, but for some reason I kept on messing up the actual context of this exchange. I clearly remembered that rofl continued being suspicious of alan, but he didn't really state that until after this exchange and not before, so that had me reading that point wrong. I guess I also put too much faith in my generic overview reads of your filter because nothing scummy just jumped out at me when I was doing so. Ugh I feel so dumb right now...
Also, just so you actually know. I was already planning on voting for suki when I had voted for you, milton. I did this so I could see how each of you responded while also allowing for an exciting end to the day (lol). I even pmed both hosts to let them know that I planned on changing my vote so they could write the endgame post. I see they incorporated my double cross quite well and made for an exciting story and I give them mad props for that.
Lastly, when I came back to thread, I even read your goodbye post as confirming your innocence, while marv apparently saw it as scummy. Ugh, I need to practice a ton more. That won't be happening for a while though because I'm not going to have time to play mafia in the coming months, but it has been a blast playing with you all. I hope to see you guys again in some other games if I ever come back.
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Crossfire i'd be really interested to see that post of mine that confirmed my scumminess to you.
Also, if you do come back and decide to play more mafia, PM me! we may be able to play again if I'm still kicking around the mafia board :>
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wow this game even has really good post-game discussion
@milton
l lol'd as I read the mafia QT. You give me way too much credit. I really thought you were town. You could have just shot crossfire lol. But you still pulled off a win. well played. especially D1.
@unforgiven
sorry man, my reads weren't very good this game. I guess the mislynches of you/suki were both kinda my fault. I'll try to keep things simpler in future.
@suki
IMO, it's not good for townies to make "falsely confident" cases, and then back off of them. Kinda falls under Lynch all Liars. But D1 I think you were mostly just a victim of circumstance. You just happened to jump on and off the alan bandwaggon at bad times, and to defend HeavOnEarth when nobody else did. It also would have helped if you had been more strongly defensive of crossfire instead of unsure. Sometimes townies can just look scummy as a result of bad reads. Everyone makes bad reads sometimes (except unforgiven :p). I guess I should have put more weight on your very townie posts after D1.
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Speaking of falsely confident cases, would this apply to my sciberbia case? I feel it is the same situation. The only reason I posted it was because I had spent a ridiculous amount of time on it and didn't want that to be a waste. I also figured that I could get some reactions from people based on it. Could that be looked at as scummy?
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@Crossfire
Why I wrongly accused Sciberbia
I don't know what motivates you to look at sciberbia, but when I started looking hard at sciberbia I thought everyone in the game looks green to me. I ignored Golden's non-existing defense against my case and his non-existing contribution ever since, and I ignored my Miltonkram's "not-sure-what-side-he-is" read. I thought scums must be good and it motivates me to re-read everyone's filter and I started with the player that I think is the best: sciberbia.
Over-confidence Cases
I think over-confident cases aren't bad. If you want to build a case against someone, go all out and assume your target really is mafia, if you are wrong, all you need to do is to say sorry. Of course, that does not mean that you should shut down whatever defense posted by your target. The reason why you want to build a case is to force a response, not only from the target, but from other people. It is by no means "you are mafia ##votes you kthxbye". (Sorry sciberbia) but I really dislike one thing he said once or twice in the game.
+ Show Spoiler + I couldn't find it yet, sciberbia's filter is 6 pages long lol. I will edit this if anyone wants me to quote it. It goes something like-
"I know there is always possible town-sided explanation for the points I brought up against you, so I am going to ignore your defenses"
That's one of the reason why I suspected sciberbia.
I think instead of just focusing on the content itself, we should look at the tone of the defense, did the person make silly excuses, look for any slip etc. Did anybody else made slips.
Building cases at night
I don't know, but I feel like building case at night is bad, especially scums can use it as a wifom by killing you off. s0Lstice got killed right after he posted a case on unforgiven. We could have interpreted it wrongly, and he won't be here to "change his mind." Also, by leaving behind a case like this, I honestly thinks it carries more weight than it deserved. In the day where Unforgiven was lynched, I changed my mind from thinking he is scum because s0Lstice mentioned a "leak", until I learn that the "leak" was far sketched. I even feel uncertain about the lynch later when I reread MJ's posts, but I went ahead with the lynch without trying to fight it off because:- Everyone agrees to lynch MJ
- I don't want s0Lstice to rage in his grave, I mean Obs QT, if he is actually right.
- I can secretly blame the lynch on s0Lstice if he flips green, and since we have "so many" mislynches left, why not just let it happen.
- I don't think I can attack s0Lstice's points without him around. Other people are not obligated to response to it, and some will come out with their own arguments against my points, and s0Lstice's case will still remain "undefeated"
I think it also works the other way round. What if you were right but you did not post and got killed off? I think unless you got a solid read or a irrefutable scum slip, not speculations (host slipped, host did not modkill etc etc), I think it is better to post your reads on multiple players, instead of one big case where no one can challenge it when you die.
Correctly Get Milton
I think Milton played really well. While he is not the most townie looking guy, he is also not the scummiest, and I kept re-reading filters from players that are from both extremes. There is also a bonus: no one will be suspicious of him not dying. There are no obvious slips and I think everyone agrees with me that scanning through the filter, he looks townie. I think the only way to "catch" him is that the fact he doesn't even flinch when we get closer and closer to LYLO, his tone remains the same, if not, it feels like he is getting more confident mislynch after mislynch. He also show no resentment for pushing for the wrong mislynches, but he didn't really do much to get the lynch going, really.
Summary
Overall, I think suicidal blue, "screw you for reading me scum" townie, Unforgiven's non-commitment first few days due to RL constraints and townie tearing themselves up nullify any advantage we had in day 1. I also noticed scums wins the majority of the newbie games, I wonder if it is the same for normal games? + Show Spoiler +<joke>Mafia is imba, nerve Mafia plx</joke>
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@crossfire
I did hold that case on me slightly against you. If you always let things like that slide, I feel like mafia benefits more than town because they can post a case and only back down from it if they don't get support.
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But I think lying can be beneficial in some scenarios for town. You were such a strong town-read anyway that it was unlikely to matter.
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@ suki
There's no one particular part of your D1 play that is bad. I see how you were trying to approach the game aggressively and you were just unfortunate to attack town players and slightly defend a scum player. You did a really good job of promoting discussion and getting D1 off to a good start. I'd take a step back though. Pressure people hard, make it look like you are absolutely convinced they are scum, but keep in mind that you could be wrong. Pressuring townies is only bad if you follow it all the way to a mislynch. Also keep in mind that weak/confusing play is not necessarily a scum play.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/5MSzY.jpg)
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/kAG8f.jpg)
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