EPT
If you looked at the roster, you’d think you’ve been transported back in time. Nine years ago, the second edition of GSL vs The World featured fan favorites like soO, INnoVation, Kelazhur, Scarlett, TY and Neeb. Now nearly a decade later, those six, as well as a number of other Koreans and Chinese pros do battle in what ranks amongst the the largest prize pools of all time for what is essentially an elongated showmatch.
The joy of this event is that it’s virtually impossible to predict who will win. One has to assume none of these players have played much (if any) StarCraft II over the past few months (Scarlett being the only exception)—therefore none of them can be considered an outright favorite. While this makes gamblers rage, it’s a delight for the neutral viewer as well as long time fans. With the event a day away and no actual data or hard info to go by, I thought it would be fun to analyze the event from a number of perspectives and see if we can divine the unknowable.
The Greatest
If we’re going entirely on pedigree, this event isn’t all that hard to predict. Three members of my top ten of all time, TY, soO and INnoVation, will take the stage in Wuhan as the prohibitive favorites to fly home with a trophy in their suitcase. It wouldn’t be that simple, though. With names like Neeb (the second best foreigner of all time), Dear (one of the highest peaks in StarCraft II history), Oliveira (World Champion) and more—all of whom have proven they can punch above their weight when it matters most. Joining them are a few fan favorites like FanTasY and Kelazhur, as well as a number of Chinese players. Add the intrigue provided by the group stage format and you’ve got the recipe for an outstanding event.
![[image loading]](/staff/Mizenhauer/greatest_bracket.jpg)
When it comes to the player with the greatest pedigree, INnoVation is the run away winner. After the group stage clears out the chaff (unfortunately there are a number of Chinese players who are in over their head if we use greatness as the metric). With the groups complete, we get a very solid Top 8. TY is the biggest loser in this scenario (finishing in second place in group A behind soO means he’ll have to play first place in Group C) as he’d be a lock for the semifinals against Neeb or Trap, but instead he runs into INnoVation who squeaks out a win. From their it’s all chalk, with soO clearing out the last foreigner before fulfilling his destiny once more—losing to INnoVation to add another second place finish to his ledger.
The Least Rusty
Rustiness is going to be an element of the Doyou Cup in one way or another, so logic dictates that whoever’s been active most recently will have quite the advantage over their foes. This sounds simple, but the process turned out to be a horrible mess. Nearly every quarterfinal participant has been retired for 3+ years and, while some have played in showmatches, it’s hard to believe anyone here has a distinct advantage over the others. Natural talent has to play into this somehow as one would probably concede that INnoVation or TY is more likely to reach some semblance of form in what will be a sloppy, sloppy tournament from start to finish. Still, this writer has never shied away from overly complicated useless challenges, so I tried to make as much sense of it as possible.
![[image loading]](/staff/Mizenhauer/fixed_bracket.jpg)
Alert! Terrans have taken over Wuhan (kinda)!
Is what you might think when you see the top four of this bracket. Despite having to deal with balance issues, a relatively active Scarlett and soO, who played in January in another all-star showmatch, Oliveira and INnoVation are destined for a TvT final for the ages. INnoVation, who picked up a win against soO in the 2015 Thunderfist SC All Stars showmatch, marches into the finals with relative ease—leveling up with each game to the point that he enters the finals as the favorite.
His opponent, Oliveira, is only three years removed from a world championship. He didn’t replicate that form when he played Rogue in January at the aforementioned all-star event, but if there’s one lesson we learned in 2023 it’s that Oliveira can never be counted out. His world championship title proves that he has the ability to make miracles happen. Would it be the craziest thing in the world if he pulled off another Katowice-esque run that propelled him within one game of a championship? This writer says, “Why not?!?”.
This Balance Patch!
Now, this is where it gets fun (for Zergs). To say the most recent patch is controversial would be a criminal understatement. Fans, players and pros alike are panning it online and the various weekly cups are evidence that the balance of power has shifted. Various changes have superpowered Zerg, while Protoss seemed to have just had their left leg amputated. A representative of Aiur seems terribly unlikely to take this event down, but will Zerg emerge victorious or will INnoVation win for the third
time in these three scenarios?
![[image loading]](/staff/Mizenhauer/patch_bracket.jpg)
Oh no, it’s worse than we thought. The new patch certainly had a massive effect on the proceedings and it turns out that Scarlett is the big winner when using the balance patch as a metric. It’s not all that shocking though as she’s beaten elite Terrans and mediocre Koreans throughout her career. She may not have the silverware of her finals opponent, but her skills are more than enough to carry her to the finals.
For soO, it’s his first championship since 2020 when he won the fifth iteration of the TeamLiquid StarLeague. His hardest match turns out to be his quarterfinal against INnoVation—who was upset by Scarlett in a manner eerily reminiscent of Code S Season 1 from 2018 to advance in second place in Group C. From there it’s a bit of a breeze, however, as Trap, who is on the receiving end of the most recent balance changes (in a bad way), is no match for soO’s might. The finals might seem lopsided, but Scarlett’s first trip to the Round of 4 of GSL (the same season she defeated INnoVation in the group stages) ended by being swept by soO, so we’ve seen this all before. The sober truth is that Scarlett has the style and verve to keep her opponents running in circles (her ability to use disgustingly overpowered units (that’s a clumsy way of saying it) is somewhat neutered by the fact that it’s a mirror match. In the end, it’s soO takes stands last thanks to his all time best ZvZ.
In the end, it’s nearly impossible to figure out who will emerge victorious in Wuhan. The most likely is that it’s a combination of all the factors discussed in the articles rather than one singular metric. And, while the winner of the event may be shrouded in mystery, the appeal is not. For those who adored StarCraft circa 2013-2018, this tournament will feel like a homecoming. A chance to watch those who inspired us to love StarCraft all those years ago. Seeing all these beloved long-retired players in one event makes this jaded writer's heart grow three sizes. Hopefully everyone else will enjoy it just as much.
