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@Crossfire, Golden
Please help me out by posting more reads. What is your stance on Suki's case on Miltonkram?
@Suki
I will analyse Miltonkram later, I just came back and I need to go out for something again. Please look more closely at sciberbia since you have made up your mind about Miltonkram. What if Miltonkram flip green?
@Miltonkram
Less time defending, more time analyzing. Who is your next FoS?
@Sciberbia
Everyone put you on the townie read. Everyone. Even if I am convinced that you are scum I believe it is hard to push a lynch to you. I am just gonna say this: I hope my brain is all fucked up and kept going after you, everyone is right and I am wrong. If I die tonight I don't see Sciberbia is ever getting lynched, on the other hand, I would think this is a wifom. I rather the wifom situation since I will still be able to do reads and influence other players. I am going to read through everyone else's filter, then yours.
@Blue Action
-Cops: I hate to say, but I should have recommended you to investigate lurkers. However, I'd like you to investigate Miltonkram.
-Medic: Do not heal me nor Sciberbia
-Jailkeeper: I would like you to jail Sciberbia. If there is no kill, then its done. If anyone suggested scums did not kill because of my suggestion: No.
-Vig/Me: Only if I have another bullet
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Sorry guys I fell asleep early last night and I won't have a lot of time to post during night phase. I'll be turning my attention to the game at 6:30 EST today.
@alan
When you read through my filter, please try to see it from a townie perspective. I understand you're suspicious of me, but just try to keep an open mind. I was dead wrong on unforgiven, but so were we all, and other than that I think I've been playing a pretty decent townie game, so just try to look for townie motivation and you'll find it. It's disconcerting to know that our confirmed townie's top suspect is another townie.
I'll be doing some serious thinking and posting 6 to 12 hours from now. Right now, I'm thinking it has to be between suki and miltonkram, and miltonkram feels more townie overall.
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@alan
I've been very busy so I haven't had a chance to look closely at sciberbia's filter, but I have two reasons why he can't be mafia. First, it doesn't make sense for him to hard bus roflwaffle as soon as HeavOnEarth got lynched, and he's played a solid town game with a lot of strong analysis that would be hard to keep up as a mafia. Second, in my gut I feel he genuinely started feeling bad after I posted my defence and subsequent requests to keep analysing despite being convinced I was mafia. I really think a mafia sciberbia wouldn't be so affected.
@sciberbia
Please read my case on miltonkram. You say Milton 'feels townie', despite not contributing to town since rofl's death. The only point in the game where he really pressured others was prior to trackd00r's death, and it was only weak pressure at that. He hasn't shared his thoughts on you or me or golden or crossfire for a very long time.
He's managed to stay out of the spotlight for the entire game with a townie read on him. Meanwhile I have been in the spotlight the whole game and it seems people's opinions on my scumminess go back and forth. All of the evidence against me has been circumstantial - the targets I really went down hard on have turned out to be blue, and I wasn't one of the first to vote for mafia when they became town targets ... but my play has always clearly had town motivations and methodologies.
When you contrast this with Milton, all of his suspicious targets aside from HeavOnEarth have been town or pretty much confirmed town, and he stopped contributing once both of the scum died. He only jumped in to justify his vote for the player with a strong case on them, or to defend himself. I've pointed out multiple posts that can easily be seen as scum slips. Both you and s0lstice have commented that if Milton was scum, both busses of his teammates wouldn't have been too outrageous.
You commented earlier that me NK'ing austin wouldn't make any sense. Well, in my case I explained how a NK of austin would make sense for Milton. To add to that analysis, Milton was under absolutely zero pressure on the first day. It makes sense to aim for a possible blue rather than a strong townie, since he wasn't going to be under scrutiny any time soon.
Please have another look at my case and at Milton's filter. Overall, it's much easier to justify Milton's actions, playstyles and slips as coming from scum motivations. This is also a big reason why I don't suspect sciberbia. His play would have to be way too crafty and risky if he was scum. Also keep in mind that unforgiven was already being heavily pushed by me and milton. If sciberbia were scum he could have easily just let me push the lynch and then use that as a reason to hang me up to dry the next day. Unforgiven was suspicious of the hard tunnelling but I don't see it as suspicious at all.
Another point as I take a quick peek at sciberbia's filter. When we were lynching trackd00r, sciberbia was not convinced that he was scum. After he voted for trackd00r he said 'trackd00r IF YOU ARE A BLUE CLAIM NOW'. This is definitely not scum-motivated behaviour.
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Ok I'm back earlier than I thought I would be. I don't have much time before the night post, so I'll just say a few things.
@alan
Sciberbia can't be mafia. See my giant case on him the last night and solstice's response to it as well as sciberbia's response to it. After spending I don't know how long on it, and coming in to the argument with the assumption that he was mafia and trying to show it, I discovered after reading through his filter and the thread that he can't be mafia.
As for Milton:
With my quick glance of your case suki, I think there are some good points there. I am going to have to investigate for myself, though. Last night, when I posted my thoughts I came at everything using the first lynch as a guide, and thought that the only two people who needed to be looked into more because they didn't really contribute to the lynch (or hadn't flipped yet or weren't pushed by mafia as alternative lynches) were milton and sciberbia. The only reason I didn't look more into milton was because I completely forgot about MJ/unforgiven because MJ didn't vote day 1 and wasn't considered in my day 1 lynch analysis, and once people started looking into him I started focusing on that to the detriment of other cases.
Basically what I'm saying is we should all look into milton if we survive the night.
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Thought I might as well make a small post in the unlikely event that I get NK'd.
I've been reading suki's filter for the last half hour or so. I want to thinks she is mafia, but so much of it, especially since D1, just reads so townie to me. I'm still not decided on her.
Miltonkram feels townie, but I'll be spending more time in his filter later.
Is there a chance the last mafia is golden? Besides the fact that HeavOnEarth attacked him D1, golden's filter also reads townie to me. Too reckless and angry to be mafia.
This is getting really frustrating. How can we figure out the first two scum on D1 and still not have a great read on the third? I'm hoping blues can bail us out after the daypost. If not, I'll be spending several hours reading filters tonight and hopefully end up with a good feeling about someone.
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Crap, fell asleep and did hope i got this up before the day 3 post.
@scberbia
Sorry for the hard tunnel (if this is considered one). For the exact reason you mentioned I can't read anyone as scum. I want to think that you are scum because I believe he is good enough to hide this well.
@Blues
Jail keeper-please out the guys you kept. They are innocent
Cop-I hope you can save us from day 3. Even you didnt nail scum you should have some few innos
@Golden
He turned out just to vote
He did not defend himself
his hostile reply to my case
i don't know. I hate to know we spent 3 days and overlook one scum like this. He did not bother to defend himself everytime I mentioned him. I cleared him by my self arguing.
Please look at him more closely.
Sorry for the late late post,
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@zelblade, prplhz
you there? daypost is coming right?
Does anybody else sometimes think that hosts intentionally delay day/night posts and take a cut of the additional advertising revenue? Must've hit F5 at least 100 times by now...
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@gold
-Feel anxious even when town is in a good lead.
If we can overlook MJ for bandwagonning, why not Gold.
-Gold, since you seems disinterested, do you want to concede as scum?
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I really hate these popcorn things :p They always make me think something good's gonna happen. Like unforgiven is mafia or cop just got a red check. Stop getting my hopes up!
who else is spamming F5 lol? Over 300 more thread views since I started watching it..
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Day 4
Chaos.
That was the only word possible to describe the situation.
Hopes raised, hopes dashed.
The puppetmaster was on a rampage.
How many had been claimed? Austin, s0lstice, trackd00r... And the many villagers torn apart by the doubts. By the fear.
And I am the last shield for the people... Am i not?
Wielding my precious bow in hand, I creeped through the forest, making my way stealthily to my targert.
I was certain.
He was missing he night before.
The night where he murdered solstice.
In time I reached the place. A cottage in the middle of the forest. Where he lived. He who had become elder through his wisdom and his kindness.
Why did he turn?
Sneaking around, I surveyed the place. Ensuring that not a single soul was around, I quietly pushed open the door, stepping into the small little cottage.
And there he was. Lying still on his bed. A peaceful look on his face.
Shock and anger flooded through me. The village was in chaos, and here he was, mastermind of the situation, sleeping peacefully whilst he rest of us suffered.
My arrows were not needed this time. Drawing out my hunters dagger, I stepped forward, bringing it down onto the body.
Or what I thought was a body.
"Sorcery has it's perks I must say. Welcome to my humble cottage.... Alan."
"You..!"
"As was expected of the hunter. You killed roflwaffles didn't you?"
"Yes. And it is your turn."
In a flash, my bow was nocked, aimed at the traitor's head.
But than I froze.
A piercing laugh broke the cold air.
"What can a mere hunter do to a sorcerer like me? Nothing. Absolutely nothing."
He walked up to me. Running his fingers over my skin.
They were cold. Void of any life.
"For years I have suffered. I did all i could to help the villagers, but what did the order do? They flat out rejected my brilliant plans. Crazy, unworkable, or so they say. Bullshit! My genius has been wasted on these fools."
And he took the bow, stepped away. And turned around. Crazed grin on his face.
"Goodbye, my friend."
And the arrow flew through the air once more.
alan133 the 1 shot vigilante has been killed.
sorry I overslept.
Day ends in 48 hours.
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gg alan133
hmm I'm actually kinda surprised by the NK.
Eveyone check your PMs
And if cop has a guilty, please put us out of our misery.
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Oh and I also wanted to say this. Even if you're not a cop or don't have a guilty, today is a good day to claim. It's a lot harder to believe you if you claim in a 3-person LYLO.
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The NK makes sense.
As we get closer to a 3 person LYLO situation, it's in the best interest of the mafia to have as few confirmed townies as possible. It's also in the interest of mafia to keep players who have had suspicions laid on them, so that those suspicions may rise again come the end of the game.
Alan was confirmed town, but his analysis is definitely not as strong as sciberbia. Killing alan leaves sciberbia as the only really strong townie left in the game. If sciberbia had been NK'd, Alan would still have the benefit of being a confirmed townie to help guide town. But since sciberbia has had suspicions raised on him, it may be part of a mind game to instil doubt into town if it reaches the final stages of the game.
For now I think the move is the obvious mafia move, and it shouldn't be looked into too deeply. This NK may become important if the game lasts into the next night, which I really really hope it doesn't.
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I also strongly believe that there are no more blues.
There has been no sign of blue behaviour for the whole game since Alan's shot. If we had a cop, we most certainly would have one player drilling another one hard even if no one claimed. If we had a doctor, I feel they would have been able to save one of s0lstice or alan. If we had a jailkeeper, the NK would have been blocked by now, or we would have seen one player vehemently defending the more suspicious players.
Golden's lurking is unfortunate. I can take a closer look at his filter later but I would really really hate to policy lynch at this stage of the game. If Golden really is mafia then it was a really great or really lucky play by mafia to have HeavOnEarth target him so early. I feel his irritation is sincere. Imagine this, he joins a mafia game for some masochistic reason fun but his life is extremely busy. Still, he puts in an hour here and there when he can to help out, but then someone starts drilling him for not contributing. It makes sense to be pissed, right? He doesn't have to play, he tried to contribute and he gets criticized for it.
Perhaps Golden's simple #vote on unforgiven is just because he is sick of this game and doesn't want to put any more time into it, but he at the very least feels obligated to still keep up the bare bare minimum. I feel that HeavOnEarth's super early game actions are enough to justify putting him as less scummy than Milton though.
sciberbia is as town as someone can get I think. I've posted my reads already.
And Crossfire has two big things going for him in my mind (aside from all the other points put forth by other players). The first is his case against sciberbia. No scum is going to attack the strongest townie in the game. They are just gonna shoot him at night. If a scum is gonna be aggressive at all he's gonna target the easy targets. Second, I really really have faith in my meta-game read on him. His helpful tone in the beginning is consistent with his helpful tone in the mafia QT in his past game. This is not something you fake as mafia, this is part of one's personality. He genuinely wants to help town and the helpful tone bubbles out. If he were mafia, that desire to help would not be so genuine.
That leaves Miltonkram, who I analysed in detail. And golden, who is lurking, whose filter I will analyse when I get time.
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@suki
I was expecting crossfire to be NK'd. He is almost as confirmed town as alan, possibly still a blue, and had a correct town read on me as opposed to alan. But yea I don't think the NK of alan is that telling. I'm still mulling it over.
Anyway, I got a little distracted by the NBA finals. Back to reading filters and old mafia QTs of suki and miltonkram now.
@miltonkram
We really need you to start posting. I looked through your filter and you literally haven't posted reads on any of the remaining players in like 6 days.
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So I went through Golden's filter and I think he is just a frustrated townie. Look at these posts from the beginning of the game.
On June 14 2012 08:39 O.Golden_ne wrote:
Hey guys
getting stuck into reading now, expect incoming analysis from myself.
currently at work but expect some @lunch
golden
On June 14 2012 13:25 O.Golden_ne wrote:
I'm still working on my response; hold your horses i have a busy life!
quickly now though, to me it was obvious that miltonkrams vote was a friendly gesture. obviously not to be taken seriously.
@HeavOnEarth. obviously i havent been super active, but i dont feel like my first post was nearly as scummy as its been made out to be. You yourself havent been the most active!
Golden
On June 14 2012 17:36 O.Golden_ne wrote:
Okay. Love it or hate it i haven't been too present thus fair. That being said i'm about to drop some knowledge on everyone. I'm just gonna post this little post structure so you know im working on it as we speak.
Summary of D1 to date (this is more for my benefit because i've been away and i find it a good method of developing insight into a situation.
Response regarding Alan, HeavonEarth and Suki situations (at a glance these names seem to be trending highly)
My reads and analysis
Any sexy tidbits and notable nuggets
this is going to be my most active time over the next few hours as i've got the night off and i'm in bed on my laptop!
see you on the otherside of a Wall of Text.
Now look at his most recent posts.
On June 16 2012 21:31 O.Golden_ne wrote:
Lol last time i ever stick my neck out for someone i think is town, what a retard alan. your argument that i contradict myself is invalid. I don't ever contradict myself, i purely state that no-one is ever confirmed town until they flip after saying that i think you are safe. read it again bro.
On June 16 2012 21:33 O.Golden_ne wrote:
•O.Golden_ne holds little to no doubt to anyone.
Crossfire + Trackdoor
•O.Golden_ne agrees with everyone, especially on cases not against scums
I dont agree with you.
•O.Golden_ne made a few long posts, but it mostly echoes what other people had said.
Theres somethign wrong with sharing the same opinion as another player? ok....
•O.Golden_ne does do not remember his own arguments for a case. He forgets about it in another post and made contradicting arguments. It feels like he blatantly made arguments so he can agree.
you are a retard.
•O.Golden_ne redirects the spotlight away from himself
only because i know i'm town and its a waste of time. far out man. now i'm gonna get slack for saying im town! haha the mafia will be reading this laughing his arse off.
•O.Golden_ne gives very little insights. He merely say "I don't like this", "I feel like" without saying why. There is a more recent example: + Show Spoiler +
i dont hold any undergraduate degree, i'm hardly a scholar.
my case on alan. he is a wanker.
On June 17 2012 20:38 O.Golden_ne wrote:
Sorry for being rude. but this game gets me super anxious. i did over react a bit.
i'd be happy to be on the list if there was one generated. but i want trackd00r at the #1 spot on the list. that's my trade off.
bold move from s0lstice and i am also wary of this being a scum-slip.
how about:
Trackd00r, Me, s0stice, 4th person (i dont mind because i think Trackd00r will flip red).
i'm wary of unforgiven also, he's replaced MJ yet morphed into the same character.
Obviously, we don't have the greatest filter to work with, so take this with a grain of salt. My opinion is this: ignore him as a lynch candidate in this next cycle. If he gets modkilled because he doesn't participate, it is the same as him being lynched, so it is useless to go for a lynch on him this day.
As for who to actually lynch, I'm up for lynching milton purely based on who I have town reads of: sciberbia and suki (ignoring golden but he is probably town). I'll do a short post on some things I notice from Milton's filter in my post after this one.
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Oh, also gg alan! I wanna play with you again so don't disappear =>
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Oh right, now that it's daytime:
##vote Miltonkram
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EPT
