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I really don't like how unforgiven posted a big case on milton, but now seems convinced that sciberbia is the most likely scum simply because s0lstice analysed unforgiven's defence post.
I'm a bit disappointed unforgiven. I was almost convinced that you were town, but your tunnelling of sciberbia is weak and not conducive to the town. Your attempts to be abrasive seem hollow and made as a direct response to our accusations.
Four hours remain before the lynch. We have four votes on unforgiven so as long as no one moves their vote we will avoid a NL. Golden and Crossfire are missing, which is extremely disappointing.
I have a case for the next day if unforgiven bleeds green. I'd love to post it soon or even have posted it early this morning but work has kept me occupied all day. I'll post it as soon as I can but I think I have a pretty good case, so I don't want to rush it.
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Milton is still my main read i just dont get the nonsense agression im getting from solstice, he changed from a openminded analyzer to a + Show Spoiler + fixed aggressor who doesnt listen to reasons. The same way your partner did it last game
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@suki
FYI, crossfire has voted on unforgiven
@suki, crossfire
Are you guys talking about me? Why does everyone keep calling me s0Lstice?
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On June 21 2012 05:54 sciberbia wrote:
@suki, crossfire
Are you guys talking about me? Why does everyone keep calling me s0Lstice?
I don't think I've been talking about you except for my big post on you during the night phase. I think I've correctly referred to you when I meant you, but I'm not sure what post of mine you're referencing.
Also, fyi everybody, I'm not going to be around during the lynch and the whole night phase following. I should be back soon after the beginning of the coming day (around 30 hours after the time of this post) assuming we don't win with this lynch and assuming I'm still alive after the night should this lynch not seal the deal.
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Votecount
Unforgiven_ve:
suki
sciberbia
alan133
Miltonkram
Crossfire99
Miltonkram:
Unforgiven_ve
Not voting:
O.Golden_ne
It's like 2 hours 40 mins until deadline.
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On June 21 2012 06:08 Crossfire99 wrote:
I don't think I've been talking about you except for my big post on you during the night phase. I think I've correctly referred to you when I meant you, but I'm not sure what post of mine you're referencing.
Sorry I meant suki and unforgiven. Wasn't directed at you.
I really hope this game's over in an hour x_x I feel like tomorrow's gonna get really ugly if unforgiven flips green, especially if golden gets modkilled
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Haha sciberbia, I didn't even realize I called you s0lstice.
It's because both of your names start with S and both of you are strong townies. So mentally you're in the same category.
Anyways I'm back from work. I'll start writing up my analysis now in case unforgiven is townie.
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dammit unforgiven I hate you! You better be mafia >_<
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Suk, “having a case in case YOUR SURE MAFIA READ“ flips read is the lammest
Thing to do. You are sure of your vote or either you are not, saying that just shows you are weak
Minded and just jumped in the easiest bandwagon, what about making some analysis before I'm dead?
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Suk, “having a case in case YOUR SURE MAFIA READ“ flips green is the lammest
Thing to do. You are sure of your vote or either you are not, saying that just shows you are weak
Minded and just jumped in the easiest bandwagon, what about making some analysis before I'm dead?
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
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Final votecount
Unforgiven_ve:
suki
sciberbia
alan133
Miltonkram
Crossfire99
O.Golden_ne
Miltonkram:
Unforgiven_ve
Unforgiven_ve is lynched.
O.Golden_ne gets a warning for not doing anything on day3.
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/QjeRG.jpg) The angry mob finally got their hands on Unforgiven_ve.
Unforgiven_ve the Vanilla Townie was hung.
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This stupid phone send the second to last post whit me clicking post.
Sciberbia, you so mafia its just ridiculous. Tell me, who will be your next lynch target after I die??
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**whitout clicing**
Lol, gg newbs. REMEMBER THE MAINE!
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**whitout clicing**
Lol, gg newbs. REMEMBER THE MAINE!
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This sucks so bad. We had better win tomorrow to make up for this. I'm going to start staring at filters. gg unforgiven, but I'm not mafia. Go read the obs QT.
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@unforgiven
I apologize. I had a feeling in my gut that you were town after you started posting, but there was still that possibility in the back of my mind. I trusted in s0lstice's read, and I wanted to believe that the mod behaviour was a slip up.
Now that unforgiven has flipped town, there is one person that stands out to me from everyone else as suspicious.
That player is Miltonkram.
To start, I want to rehash sciberbia's case on Miltonkram.
+ Show Spoiler +
1. He states suspicions on roflwaffle, but backs off quickly so that rofl isn't really in danger from Milton's actions.
2. He throws a bunch of suspicions on people who are town, which "isn't damning but isn't exactly comforting either."
3. He contributes to lynch HeavOnEarth, by putting HeavOnEarth into his "top 3" after only sciberbia and s0lstice have accused him. To s0lstice, a miltonkram bus of HeavOnEarth seems by far the most likely out of all possible buses.
4. Miltonkram was gone almost the entire night of night 1, which fits the theory about scum not submitting their NK until last minute.
He also says that the NK doesn't make a lot of sense no matter who ordered it. More on that later.
He finally concludes the Milton is probably town, but possibly could be scum.
Unfortunately, s0lstice didn't give detailed thoughts on Miltonkram before he died, but he did leave this one gem:
Just something to consider...
If Milton is scum, the second bus was easy as hell. By the time he chimed in, rofl's death was essentially a foregone conclusion.
Then really, the only one he bussed was heavonearth. Bussing one of your teammates when an influential townie is calling for their death is a logical play.
After these posts, I put in my two cents (which I will simply re-include as part of this analysis). Alan posts his case on Golden, and Crossfire posts his case on sciberbia. No one comments on Miltonkram and Miltonkram didn't post any defence. I would have liked to see his defence, but sciberbia said 'you don't have to post a defence', so the lack of defence isn't suspicious in itself.
s0lstice then posts his case on unforgiven which is the main topic for the rest of the night and day.
No one even talked about Miltonkram until unforgiven brought him up in his one big post. His points were as follows:
1. He tries to buddy up with alan
2. He's never been pressured. He's never really pressured anyone. (related to sciberbia's point #1 and #2 above)
3. He was nervous prior to HeavOn's lynch. More on this later
4. He tries to gain townie credit when rofl starts coming under fire. (see s0lstice's comment on bus timing above)
Miltonkram posts a reasonable defence.
Now that I've gone through the previous cases against Miltonkram, let me begin my case.
My Case Against Miltonkram
I will begin by analyzing the night kills.
+ Show Spoiler +
I have a theory that both night kill targets were made with the same motivation - To point town towards a lynch target for the next day.
Why Austin?? Austin pushed his case against Crossfire when everyone jumped on HeavOnEarth. s0lstice's dying words were against unforgiven.
We didn't listen to the first "suggestion" because the case against rofl was so strong. Had rofl not been immediately strung up on the gallows, we may have really gone after Crossfire.
We did listen to the second suggestion, and killed the NK target's biggest suspect. The first kill could also have had the secondary purpose of finding a blue. The second kill's secondary purpose was targetting a strong townie.
Why s0lstice and not sciberbia? Because s0lstice was wrong, both about unforgiven and about me (who he'd probably go after, after unforgiven died). Sciberbia only had his finger pointed at me.
In short, it makes sense for Milton to make this kind of play. I feel it explains a scum Milton's thought process, something which has confused us for the whole time.
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The vote timings
Here is what I said previously:
sciberbia on Milton's bussing of HeavOnEarth: Milton only puts down his suspicions after both s0lstice and sciberbia have labelled HeavOnEarth as suspicious. And he does it as a 1 of 3 list.
s0lstice on Milton: "If Milton is scum, the second bus was easy as hell. By the time he chimed in, rofl's death was essentially a foregone conclusion"
I think the vote timings for scum Milton make perfect sense, and don't involve an insta-bus (of roflwaffles) out of nowhere like a scum sciberbia case does.
Milton voted trackdoor as his #1 scum read after I made my big post against trackd00r. His main reasons being the voteswitch, and his weak pressure on other players.
Right after he posts:
EBWOP: This isn't a strong point, so I'm not hinging my opinions on it.
.
Milton then remained quiet until the case on unforgiven got attention. He is sure that unforgiven is scum now, and his main reasons are HeavOnEarth's awkward bus of MJ and unforgiven claiming VT.
Notice that in the period between austin/rofl getting lynched until now, Milton has not pressured anyone. He has only chimed when there's a strong case against someone, writes up some support info, and then votes for the target.
In other words, Milton is taking an easy bandwagon ride on every lynch.
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My next point, a strange comment in his back and forth with roflwaffles:
+ Show Spoiler +Miltonkram: roflwaffles55 I'm suspicious of this guy based on two of his posts. First one is a response to s0Lstice/sciberbia: Show nested quote +
Sure!
When it comes to lynching lurkers I would agree in that it shouldn't be the focus, and would prefer to lynch someone acting scummy day 1.
As to NL, I am firmly against it and if we can't get a clear majority on scummy-acting folks then we should at least lynch a lurker, especially on D1 and 2.
Notice the eager to please tone of his post. I'm looking at it as a possible scumslip. His 2nd suspicious post: Show nested quote +
I agree that I may have been a bit too aggressive right off the bat, but I implore you to look at my arguments and his, and take more from it then just an overzealous attempt on my part.
##unvote alan133
There you go, I'm still suspicious, but I may have underestimated the significance of a vote.
Notice how self-conscious he is in this post, especially in that last line. I realize that several players weren't interested in his case, but there is absolutely no harm in keeping pressure on a player until they give you a satisfactory defense. Essentially he backs down from his pressure based on a tiny reprimand from Crossfire. It seems like he's trying to keep himself out of the spotlight. roflwaffle: You've defeated yourself in your own argument against me, with the explanation as to why I backed down on alan133. I backed down because I hadn't received any support towards my case. You also defeated yourself by saying that I'm trying to keep myself out of the spotlight, if I wanted that, I wouldn't have been the third person to post a case, let alone one I knew would net me a bunch of flak.
I made the case to put pressure on someone that was lacking any real opinion, whether because he felt that there wasn't enough data to form one, or because he was hiding from the spotlight himself.
The evidence or suspicions that you have brought up can be answered so easily I'm not sure why you didn't come up with them yourself.
Miltonkram:
@ roflwaffles
Ok, I see what you're saying. I thought you were completely backing off of alan even though you've made a decent case against him. I still don't like the fact that you took your vote off of him based on a wrist-slap from Crossfire, but I guess I misunderstood your intent. Since you're still pursuing your case on alan the unvote seems less scummy.
As far as alan133 is concerned I think you may have something. He's put very little pressure on anyone. When he does pressure he seems wishy-washy as hell.
Miltonkram had a little back and forth between himself and roflwaffle. Notice how easily roflwaffle deflects Milton's case against him, as if the arguments Milton made were meant to be deflected. Now notice how milton just gives him the green light.
However... Milton says, "I thought you were completely backing off of alan... but I guess I misunderstood your intent. Since you're still pursuing your case on alan the unvote seems less scummy."
I don't see how Milton could have taken that away from rofl's post. Rofl straight up said he backed down. There was no mention of still pursuing his case against roflwaffle. Milton seems to be justifying rofl's actions for him, while saying that rofl seems less scummy.
In the same post, he renews rofl's case against alan. "As far as alan133 concerned I think you may have something." Soft support of his teammate?
----
Next, Milton making observations on scum actions and motivations that actually perfectly fit the way he's been playing:
if suki and roflwaffles were both scum they were essentially going all in on bussing HeavOnEarth blowing any chance that town mislynches D1. Blowing such a chance seems like a pretty gutsy play so maybe she learned well from Xatalos, but I'm not entirely convinced.
This is a possible slip. It describes his behaviour perfectly. He also references Xatalos' play from XV, meaning he's perfectly aware that this was a valid strategy to do this game.
Maybe this is too WIFOMy, but I feel like the safe play for scum would have been to have one player voting HeavOnEarth in order to gain some of the town cred in case he got lynched and one player voting someone else in order to keep a little momentum towards a possible mislynch.
sciberbia pointed this out, but it happens in the same post as the quote above. It describes his play perfectly and could be another slip.
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His nervousness pre-lynch of HeavOn:
@ Heaven
There are a lot of people jumping on your case really quickly. Not gonna lie, it's making me a little nervous. Please post some sort of defense or at the very least what kind of reads you have on players whenever you have the time.
This quote reminds me a LOT of a quote by Xatalos in Mafia XV:
Suki, where are you when you need to defend yourself? The bandwagon on you is gathering steam, but you're nowhere to be seen. And I don't even think you're Mafia. Do a favor for everyone and show up right now.
This was what Xatalos posted in the game when there was a bandwagon growing on me while I was away. Basically, it's a last-ditch effort for mafia to tell their teammate to post, JUST IN CASE they weren't checking the mafia QT but were checking the main thread.
When Milton posted this, it stuck out to me as really odd. Now I think this is a pure scum slip, disguised to be a 'helpful townie' post. There is definite mafia motivation for this post, but not really any townie motivation.
Now contrast this with his certainty of trackd00r and unforgiven being scum. There has been no hesitation in his reads, no questioning of who could possibly be mafia. The person on the chopping block has been his main read every time.
IN SUMMARY
Motivation for both night kills can be found for a scum Miltonkram
Milton's bussing of his two teammates can be explained by reasonable mafia play that doesn't involve extreme early actions.
Milton's strange interpretation/soft defense of rofl's words
Milton's lack of commentary on any player except those with strong cases against them.
Milton's nervousness pre-lynch of HeavOnEarth...
... Contrasted with Milton's confidence in finding the last scum each lynch, when we're approaching a situation where everyone looks townie.
This is my case against Miltonkram. Come daytime I will vote for him. I can't see sciberbia or crossfire as scum. I can't see HeavOnEarth pressuring a scum Golden the way he did. Milton is now the last and only suspect in my mind.
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Sorry I rushed out for a meeting as soon as I woke up and is stuck in a data center for the rest of my morning (and will be for the rest of my day).
gg Unforgiven_ve. I don't blame you since you're busy but only if you were more active.. Sigh.
+ Show Spoiler +I let out my frustration on sciberbia and how the town worships him as if he is God. My message was s0Lstice is a 100% confirmed townie, sciberbia is not. Trackd00r is an easy lynch. Unforgiven_ve is an easy mislynch, and I am not gonna drop my speculation about how scum killed s0lstice just to push this mislynch, although there are 10,000 other reasons for scums to kill him.
I am going to look for filter one by one when I got back from work. For now, I don't like how sciberbia jumped from suki to Unforgiven_ve without reconsidering s0Lstice's case.
I believe no matter how good a scum is, there must be a leak somewhere, I just had to find it. Screw circumstantial talks, screw speculations. I am sorry but I am truly frustrated at the current situation.
Laters.
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EPT
