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Crossfire99
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1529 Posts
June 22 2012 05:20 GMT
#561
I just noticed this post from Milton.
+ Show Spoiler +
On June 14 2012 06:38 Miltonkram wrote:
Alright, I caught up on the thread after I woke up. Here are my thoughts.

suki
I can see her play being overzealous townie, but she hasn't done much to convince me. Another reason I'm suspicious is that she's ignored my case against her. I remember during my game as scum it was very tempting to ignore pressure and just hope that people would drop their cases instead of actually defending myself. I won't be dropping my pressure until I get a satisfactory response. @ s0Lstice, be wary of meta arguments. Scum, especially newbie scum, adapt their play from game to game.

Crossfire99
He's been coaching a lot without putting up any real content besides his weak pressure on austinmcc. I've got my eye on him.

alan133
roflwaffle's case on him was fairly decent. I don't understand why he dropped it. He's "contributed" without putting much pressure on players.

roflwaffles55
I'm suspicious of this guy based on two of his posts. First one is a response to s0Lstice/sciberbia:
Show nested quote +
Sure!

When it comes to lynching lurkers I would agree in that it shouldn't be the focus, and would prefer to lynch someone acting scummy day 1.

As to NL, I am firmly against it and if we can't get a clear majority on scummy-acting folks then we should at least lynch a lurker, especially on D1 and 2.

Notice the eager to please tone of his post. I'm looking at it as a possible scumslip. His 2nd suspicious post:
Show nested quote +
I agree that I may have been a bit too aggressive right off the bat, but I implore you to look at my arguments and his, and take more from it then just an overzealous attempt on my part.

##unvote alan133

There you go, I'm still suspicious, but I may have underestimated the significance of a vote.

Notice how self-conscious he is in this post, especially in that last line. I realize that several players weren't interested in his case, but there is absolutely no harm in keeping pressure on a player until they give you a satisfactory defense. Essentially he backs down from his pressure based on a tiny reprimand from Crossfire. It seems like he's trying to keep himself out of the spotlight.

Mouldy Jeb
Ditto what s0Lstice said. The one thing I have to add is for people to look at his latest post. He apologizes and makes a bare bones defense of his posting that reeks of self-conscious play. He's #1 on my scumdar right now.

Golden + HeavOnEarth
Get in the thread and post more. You guys can start by giving me your opinions on this post.

Obviously all these players can't be scum. I'll be looking through the thread more to see what I can do about narrowing down my list of suspicious players. Right now I'm leaning towards roflwaffles and MJ. I'm waiting to see if suki actually defends herself this time around.

Isn't it a little weird that he finds rofl scummy based on the two posts he quotes, but then likes his case on alan? It's just something to think about.

Anyway I just found these quotes by him. I'll bold the important points.
On June 17 2012 11:17 Miltonkram wrote:
Trackd00r is my #1 scum suspect at this point. Here are a few things to keep in mind when looking at the D1 lynch.

What scum motivations were there for a voteswitch? At what point did players move their votes over? Seeing that 3 players had moved their votes in quick succesion(suki, me, and roflwaffles+ Show Spoiler +
Funny tidbit. Spoilered cuz it's unimportant. Suki ninja'd me with her vote. I remember posting my vote and then looking back and being like, "hold on a second, this page is waaaaayyy longer than I remember when I refreshed."
) I find her being scum unlikely. Really think about this now, if suki and roflwaffles were both scum they were essentially going all in on bussing HeavOnEarth blowing any chance that town mislynches D1. Blowing such a chance seems like a pretty gutsy play so maybe she learned well from Xatalos, but I'm not entirely convinced. Don't know if you guys agree, does this make sense to everyone?

Maybe this is too WIFOMy, but I feel like the safe play for scum would have been to have one player voting HeavOnEarth in order to gain some of the town cred in case he got lynched and one player voting someone else in order to keep a little momentum towards a possible mislynch. This isn't a strong point, so my opinions aren't the only things hinging on this.

Regarding why I think trackd00r is scum, a lot of it has to do with the D1 lynch analysis that I outlined earlier. Other than that he spends a lot of time pressuring easy players (Crossfire and Golden), and putting up some pretty weak pressure. I don't think his priorities are in line with a town player's priorities. I have read suki's case and it was pretty good. I'd recommend you all take a second look at it. If she's wrong about trackd00r I'll give the case against her a second look with a different perspective. I don't think she's wrong though.

##Vote: trackd00r

On June 19 2012 03:53 Miltonkram wrote:
Hi guys.

@ s0Lstice
Yes, I am a bit surprised.

@ sciberbia
I'm pretty exhausted. Had to work an extremely long shift. If I feel like I'm about to get mislynched or people have questions about what motivated any of my posts I'll defend myself/answer questions. I will answer your question about my breadcrumbing comment. Please pardon me if my posting is a little incoherent. I'm really tired.

You had been commenting quite a bit on blue role play and I thought I needed to add my two cents. I was trying to figure out ways for us to get enough confirmed town players to make it impossible for scum to win. At first I was thinking about the possibility of confirming two townies if we had a jailkeeper. One would claim they were RB'd and the jailer would show us his/her breadcrumb. I thought of what could go wrong after I posted my advice. What if we had a scum RBer and they breadcrumbed their action and used this to become confirmed town? My mind kind of exploded then.

I was also thinking of confirming town players through a cop, but that would require this game not to be a setup with double godfathers. I find that a distinct possibility (if we have a cop) because I could see prplhz making a setup that is basically a "fuck you" to town players who rely too much on blue roles. Does this make sense? Basically my thoughts were chasing themselves around in circles and I didn't think all the possibilities through when I posted my breadcrumbing comment. I'm hoping everyone ignored it.

Edit: I wrote this last night but my internet went out. Posting it now. Just so you know, I'm not going to waste a ton of time defending myself. I'd much prefer to scumhunt. Suki seems like the most logical lynch candidate for this upcoming day cycle. I'd prefer not to spend an entire day with the focus on her. I'll be rereading the thread to see if there is anything people missed. Analysis will be on it's way in a little while.

On June 20 2012 08:42 Miltonkram wrote:
I want to make a few comments on the situation we're in.

We seem to have consolidated on Unforgiven for our lynch today. Do not let this kill discussion! I see no harm in moving our discussion forward.

At this point our scum player has no one to defend but himself/herself. There is no one on the scum team left to protect anymore so any comments that our scum player makes are with the full intent of making himself/herself look as townie as possible as opposed to covering the tracks of another player. I say this because suki and I are likely the next players on the chopping block. Under this reasoning there's almost nothing we can do to convince town of our innocence. There's nothing suki can do to convince me she isn't scum if Unforgiven flips green, and, if I'm thinking correctly from any of the confirmed town players' viewpoints, there is nothing that I can do to convince you of my innocence.

Back to my point. We're lynching Unforgiven today but there is no harm in getting things out of the way for future discussion. If the game continues after this day cycle because Unforgiven flips green (I find it really unlikely at this point), either suki or I is next. First of all, is this correct? Do you guys have any questions for either of us or things you need clarified about our play? If this is correct and you decide on lynching one of us, consolidate on it quickly and let us know that there is no way we can defend ourselves. That way, if we're town, we can spend our time helping out as much as possible rather than wasting it on a defense that no one will listen to anyway.

Edit: Just saw Unforgiven's case on me. Posting this anyway. Not really seeing anything in it that sciberbia hasn't already pointed out. Will respond to it shortly after I've reread it a couple times.


So he went from being pretty much convinced of suki's townieness and really liking her case to thinking she's scum in the second post, but then we should ignore her? Huh??? Finally, he says suki is scum if unforgiven is green. What convinced him so completely that suki is scum? He never mentioned it in his posts. He just says she is scum. Also I don't get how if someone is the most logical candidate for a lynch you should just ignore them. You should pressure them and get responses to get more info. Additionally, he doesn't even mention that he no longer thinks that suki is scum or whatever. If unforgiven was scum then suki is town. How does this not factor into his posts at all. He just magically ignores his top scum read in favor of the new bandwagon with no explanation whatsoever. I don't like it at all.

##Vote Miltonkram
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
June 22 2012 05:26 GMT
#562
@crossfire
crap, didn't think about that. If golden gets modkilled we only have 1 lynch.

Would miltonkram really have NK'd alan
I've been thinking a lot about the NK. How does miltonkram expect to win by NK'ing alan?

First of all, alan was more suspicious of me/suki/golden than he was of miltonkram. If alan was still alive today, miltonkram would have much better prospects of not being lynched. As it stands, suki and crossfire have deemed him suspicious, I have listed him as my #2 target, and golden has no recent reads.

I'd have to expect him to push a lynch on suki, but even then, who would he NK? Surely not crossfire. That would bring it down to me, golden, and miltonkram, and he'd have to expect me to lynch him. And if he NK's me, then he has to rely on crossfire picking to lynch golden over himself. Seems like quite a gamble.

On the other hand, if he had NK'd crossfire
He'd have great prospects of lynching suki today. Then he would just have to NK me and alan would likely lynch golden over miltonkram.

@suki, crossfire
You guys seem to be online now, and I'd like to hear your thoughts on this analysis. Do you really think miltonkram would have expected to survive today after NK'ing alan? And even if he did, do you think he'd like his chances if it comes down to crossfire/golden/miltonkram?

Here is my assemblage of stated reads prior to the the deadline. Please correct me if you see anything wrong.
+ Show Spoiler +

CROSSFIRE
miltonkram: possible mafia
golden: possible mafia
sciberbia: 100% town
suki: probably town

GOLDEN
?????????????????

SCIBERBIA
suki: first choice
miltonrkram: second choice
golden: almost surely town
crossfire: surely town

SUKI
miltonkram: definite mafia
golden/sciberbia/crossfire: town

MILTONKRAM
suki: suspect
golden: suspect
crossfire/sciberbia: town

ALAN
top target: sciberbia
golden: suspicious
suki: not sure
crossfire: town
miltonkram: town
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
June 22 2012 05:43 GMT
#563
And consider if suki/golden is mafia. All they have to do is get miltonkram lynched today. Then suki could win by NK'ing me and getting crossfire to lynch golden. And golden could win by NK'ing crossfire and getting me to lynch suki. Doesn't this seem like a safer mafia plan?
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
June 22 2012 05:46 GMT
#564
hmm I guess when I put it that way, the last day would become total WIFOM. But it still gives them at least a solid 50/50 assuming they can get miltonkram lynched today.
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
June 22 2012 05:56 GMT
#565
look at it this way. there were 6 people alive last night:

3 unlikely to ever be lynched, and therefore sensible NK's over the last two nights: crossfire, alan, me

me: suspicious of suki and milton, not golden
alan: suspicious of suki and golden, not milton
crossfire: suspicious of golden and milton, not suki

So why would miltonkram kill alan first?
Miltonkram
Profile Joined December 2011
United States310 Posts
June 22 2012 06:58 GMT
#566
Sorry I've been away guys. I thought my life would be less hectic after getting out of school, but I guess I was wrong. I'll do my best to address what people are bringing up.

@ crossfire
In regards to roflwaffles, I was entertaining two possible notions. One in which roflwaffles was scum, one in which he wasn't. That awkward vote-then-unvote thing he did looked scummy to me. At first I thought he was fully backing down from his pressure based solely on a wrist slap from you. Then roflwaffles made this post directed at alan.
Interesting that the first legitimate read that you come up with is a conspiracy between me and suki. Not only is it completely ridiculous, but you second guess it immediately, again leaving your options open so that you can't actually be held accountable for anything. Put yourself on the line, start contributing to the big picture and not just responding emotionally to me, and think logically about what you're going to post.

The biggest thing that keeps irking me about your play is your seeming avoidance of actual decision making, the fact that even when criticizing my play you can't say "I think this is scummy". You go all the way around it and put the possible motivations from both angles.

I would appreciate it if someone other then me looked at alan133's posts and formed their own independent opinion on him.

I thought roflwaffles was saying, "I took my vote off of alan, but I'm still suspicious of him and I'm still pressuring him." Since my pressure on roflwaffles hinged on the fact that he wasn't still suspicious of alan, I figured I had misunderstood him. Did he end up scum? Was that a scummy move on his part? Yes, but I thought I was misunderstanding him at the time.

I can understand how you're confused on my statements about suki and moving discussion forward. Keep in mind that I was really tired when I wrote those so I didn't communicate my point as clearly as I would have liked. I'll do my best to clarify them for you.

At this point, our scum player has no one left that he/she needs to defend. That makes it ten times harder for us town players to catch scumslips. Is it still possible that scum might slip up? Yes. I thought Unforgiven made a couple of scumslips, that's why I was so confident in lynching him. But at this point, all scum has to do is look as townie as possible because there is no one left to keep safe. That's why it gets frustrating for a townie trying to defend himself/herself and why a scum can just slip through the cracks. There oftentime comes a point where there is literally nothing a player can do to convince people one way or another. Suki is at that point for me. Her posts have looked really townie, but, if she's scum, what harm is there in looking townie? There isn't anyone she can inadvertently incriminate or that she has to keep an eye out for. The best way for a lone scum to play is by looking townie as hell.

I'd rather have us consolidate on a lynch quickly, and then use the rest of the day to discuss future lynch candidates. Does that make sense?

@ Everyone
If you guys are intent on lynching me, please consolidate on me quickly after you've let me know which points I should/shouldn't defend or clarify for you. If you decide my answers are unsatisfactory, don't beat a dead horse! Let me know that I'm a dead man walking and I'll do my best to make sure you guys lynch correctly during the next day cycle. With that in mind, I'll have a few reads up in a little while.
suki
Profile Joined August 2009
Canada1159 Posts
June 22 2012 07:08 GMT
#567
I think the scenario can still end up with good for milton. Remember, I didn't post any strong accusations against milton prior to the NK so he was still pretty much sailing. Your case against him was half-hearted and you even went out of your way to tell him not to defend himself since he was pretty townie.

With you alive, you lynch me for sure, then you die, then its him and crossfire vs golden. Milton and crossfire have both had strong town reads all game whereas golden has been lurking. I think this is just as valid as your scenario with crossfire dead.

Actually if crossfire is dead, remember that I posted support for alan's case against golden, much stronger support than my small posts targetting milton. Perhaps he thought that there would be a scenario where I push a mislynch of golden with alan's support. You've been on the fence about me enough that you just might go for a golden lynch. Then alan dies. then its sciberbia vs suki vs milton. I think that's more of a 50/50 scenario than crossfire/golden/milton.

--

also if I were scum you and s0lstice would have both been dead on the first 2 nights.
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
June 22 2012 07:20 GMT
#568
@suki
hang around. I want your response to something. Gimme a few minutes
suki
Profile Joined August 2009
Canada1159 Posts
June 22 2012 07:21 GMT
#569
[quote]@suki, crossfire
You guys seem to be online now, and I'd like to hear your thoughts on this analysis. Do you really think miltonkram would have expected to survive today after NK'ing alan? And even if he did, do you think he'd like his chances if it comes down to crossfire/golden/miltonkram?

Basically yes and yes. Because there wasn't a strong case against him until I put one up after unforgiven's death. It's conceivable that he thought I would push for a golden lynch with alan, and if golden dies he's in bad shape. He needs me to die today, and you're the best bet for that.[/b]
suki
Profile Joined August 2009
Canada1159 Posts
June 22 2012 07:22 GMT
#570
blrghhhhh dont take too long i'm already so tired haha. This game ate up like 3 hours without me noticing.
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
June 22 2012 07:37 GMT
#571
@suki
First of all, you say that "with me alive, I lynch you (suki) for sure". Here is my last post on the subject before the deadline:

On June 22 2012 01:05 sciberbia wrote:
I'll be doing some serious thinking and posting 6 to 12 hours from now. Right now, I'm thinking it has to be between suki and miltonkram, and miltonkram feels more townie overall.


This doesn't seem like a "for sure" thing. Also, here were the stated views of live people on suki vs miltonkram before the deadline: + Show Spoiler +

ON SUKI
sciberbia and miltonkram attack
crossfire defends
golden???

ON MILtONKRAM
crossfire and suki attack
sciberbia kinda attacks
golden?????


You really think he'd be confident that I lynch you even with crossfire preferring miltonkram?

And even if it came down to crossfire vs milton vs golden, crossfire's last post on the subject was:
On June 21 2012 01:49 Crossfire99 wrote:
Oh, also if unforgiven flips green, I'm going to guess that either milton or golden are mafia, but i have both of them as pretty much town right now...unforgiven better flip red. lol


I guess it's reasonable to think crossfire would lynch golden there though.

NOW, about the scenario where crossfire dies, you seem to have forgotten that you posted a massive case on miltonkram where you assured us you'd vote for him not an hour after Unforgiven's death. Miltonkram would know that you're going for him and not golden. Clearly golden is not getting lynched there. If you think Milton might expect us to lynch you with alan dead, surely he'd expect us to lynch you with crossfire dead? and not golden.

You realize that you assured a vote on milton early in N3 right? Does that change your analysis at all?
suki
Profile Joined August 2009
Canada1159 Posts
June 22 2012 07:39 GMT
#572
Buh. you're right. i posted it after unforgiven's death not after alan's death, meaning milton knew my suspicions. That discounts my theory that I'd push a golden lynch with alan.

Ok let me think on this again -_-;
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
June 22 2012 07:40 GMT
#573
@miltonkram
what are your thoughts on all this?
Miltonkram
Profile Joined December 2011
United States310 Posts
June 22 2012 07:44 GMT
#574
@ sciberbia
You're making my head hurt But WIFOM situations always make my head hurt. Let me read it a few more times and I'll get back to you.
suki
Profile Joined August 2009
Canada1159 Posts
June 22 2012 07:53 GMT
#575
Crossfire dies, leaving alan sciberbia suki golden milton.

suki pushes milton. Alan has town read of milton, on the fence about suki. Sciberbia leaning for suki scum. Suki gets lynched. Either alan or sciberbia left. If he kills alan then sciberbia has a golden town read and lynches milton with golden's support. If alan alive, he must know that both me and sciberbia were strongly attacking milton. I don't see a surefire golden lynch in this situation. Since alan is confirmed town milton is in bad shape cuz golden auto-votes for milton.

Current scenario

alan dies. leaving sciberbia crossfire suki golden milton
sciberbia and milton go after suki, suki and crossfire go after milton. golden forced to choose. Possible that milton feels like his defense is strong enough or the case against suki is good enough for suki to die. If suki dies, then he kills sciberbia leaving him with golden, crossfire and milton. Feel that this is better scenario cuz at least crossfire isn't confirmed town.

difference is, if milton survives today then he is in much better shape in the current scenario than in the scenario with alan or sciberbia alive. Perhaps he's gambling everything on being able to lynch me today. If he can do that then this scenario is better than stuck against sciberbia or alan at the end.

Thus it makes sense for him to kill alan in the off chance that he survives today, than aiming to survive today and in a tough spot at the very end. So I guess the difference is alan won't choose golden, and he's confirmed town. Crossfire won't choose golden either but at least he's not confirmed town, there is a slim chance golden will attack crossfire. Sciberbia won't choose golden and he's practically confirmed town, no way golden will vote sciberbia.

Milton is in a tough spot all around so he has to gamble.

How does that sound?
suki
Profile Joined August 2009
Canada1159 Posts
June 22 2012 07:56 GMT
#576
basically crossfire golden milton is his best-case end game scenario, and the only way he gets that is if he shoots sciberbia or alan last night and gets me lynched today.

If he shoots sciberbia tho, he most likely wont get me lynched today. Therefore he must shoot alan.
suki
Profile Joined August 2009
Canada1159 Posts
June 22 2012 07:59 GMT
#577
also are you still here, should i wait for your response cuz i wanna sleep T__T;
suki
Profile Joined August 2009
Canada1159 Posts
June 22 2012 08:16 GMT
#578
ok i waited 20 mins and no response.. So good nite >_<;
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
June 22 2012 08:18 GMT
#579
lol good night. sorry. i take too long to make posts
suki
Profile Joined August 2009
Canada1159 Posts
June 22 2012 08:19 GMT
#580
me too. i also take too long to go to bed.. you gonna post soon?
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