EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XVII - Page 30
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Just a quick thought. The only reason we've cleared Golden is because HeavOnEarth tunneled him from the get go D1. The only other person Heaven pressured besides him was MJ/Unforgiven. We seem to have cleared Golden based on this and the fact that he voted for Heaven. Roflwaffles never mentioned Golden. Feel free to check his filter in case I missed something. Golden never commented on the roflwaffles situation N1. I can see Heaven being coached into attacking one of his scumbuddies in order for scum to cover their bases from the get go. Furthermore it makes sense for a Godfather to bus someone D1. Even if Heaven was checked he'd turn up green. If that happened HeavOnEarth would be as close to confirmed townie as possible. HeavOnEarth's pressure could have been a ploy that backfired on himself, but unintentionally still got a scum player (Golden) on the "confirmed townie" list. Notice when Golden disappeared from the thread. His last meaningful posts are after alan133 posts a case against him. Golden responds quite angrily, an emotion I'm not accustomed to seeing from him in any of his previous games. Golden could have realized that the more he posted, the more chances he had of slipping up. Instead he's letting his status as "confirmed townie" keep him safe. Also, the only real pressure put on Golden after HeavOnEarth was by austinmcc on D1 and alan133. Looking at alan133's last couple posts, it's not hard to extrapolate that alan might've pushed for a Golden lynch quite hard. This allows our night kills to make a lot more sense. Not gonna lie, I'm tired and I haven't double checked this much. I'm going to get some sleep and then revisit this possibility. Please have a look and see if this makes sense. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
wait wait wait. What do you think of suki? You think she is mafia? | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
Your logic makes more sense this time. It's tricky to analyze the 3-person LYLO. I think crossfire is for all practical purposes as confirmed townie as alan was, though, so I don't think crossfire/golden/milton is any better for milton than alan/golden/milton. you proposed: kill alan --> lynch suki --> kill sciberbia --> crossfire/golden/milton I propose: kill crossfire --> lynch suki --> kill sciberbia --> alan/golden/milton It basically comes down to this: D5 is gonna be some sort of 50/50 WIFOM no matter who it comes down to. Either alan/crossfire/sciberbia must be alive, and nobody is going to vote one of those 3 IMO (maybe alan votes sciberbia but scum seems to have decided not to go for that). However, think about D4. It was pretty apparent to me that it'd come down to milton vs suki, since these two seemed to be accusing each other. Crossfire is suspicious of milton but not suki. Alan is suspicious (kinda) of suki but not of milton. Milton has a much better chance of getting suki lynched with alan alive than with crossfire alive. Then he ends up with the 50/50 WIFOM D5, which he would've got anyway. So, what are possible reasons miltonkram might have killed alan? -- Didn't really think about it that much -- Thought about it, but came to a different conclusion than me -- Was expecting someone to think of all this and therefore not suspect him None of these seem especially likley. Overall, I really just don't know why he wouldn't kill crossfire over alan. Alan was spewing some suspicion at me/golden/suki but not at miltonkram. Alan said that he did not like my case on miltonkram and found me scummier for it. And crossfire was between golden/miltonkram. And even made a post against miltonkram an hour before the deadline. Also, nobody has shown any willingness to even consider lynching crossfire. And it was still possible that crossfire was jailkeeper or something. An NK on crossfire just makes so much more sense for miltonkram. Unless someone convinces me otherwise, I'm considering this NK some decent evidence in Miltonkram's favor. But, I really need to spend more time analysing filters. It's now 5AM here and I'm still not sure about suki vs miltonkram vs golden. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
@GOLDEN I'd really appreciate if you told us what's up with you. Are you following the thread? Are you planning to vote at the last second again? Or are you interested in discussing about the last mafia? Also, can you explain this quote? On June 15 2012 06:27 O.Golden_ne wrote: I'm not really impressed with the case on me, if i get bussed off by the mafia and you see i flip scum i ask you consider HeavonEarth as a prime candidate or lynch. While i'm not happy with the case made against me (it doesn't really feel that solid) HeavonEarth jumps on the bandwagon very easily. I'd like to hear other people's thoughts on this too. Is it just me or does he claim scum hardcore? How can this be a typo? And how drunk would he have to be to slip this as mafia? @Crossfire I've gone through your filter one last time and there's no way I'm ever voting for you. So if you're mafia, congrats on the win. But if I'm right about you (which I think I am), and you're right about me (which you are), we can kill 2 out of 3: suki, miltonkram, and golden. I'm honestly still not sure, but I'm leaning toward suki being mafia. If only milton and golden would contribute more... I still need to look more at miltonkram and suki. I don't know where all my time went tonight. It is actually past 5 AM. 6:30 PM EST tomorrow I'll be back to the game and make more definitive posts before I sleep. No NBA game to distract me tomorrow. | ||
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zelblade
Australia901 Posts
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
I'm in a really weird place with suki right now. If I were to vote for her, it would be for her D1/N1 actions alone. Everything she has been doing since then has given off townie vibes. It's possible that the reason her play has been so different from the D1/N1 cycle up until now is because there was still other scum present in the game. Losing both scum partners can trigger a change in behavior. No longer does she have to look after her scum partners, she can just look as townie as possible. If she's scum, she's played the part of the helpful townie really well since roflwaffles died. This is both a point for her and a point against her. You can see why I said that in some cases it is literally impossible to defend oneself. My original thought was that you guys would lynch either me or suki this day cycle, and then lynch the other one the next. I considered you, Golden, and Crossfire as confirmed town. Process of elimination, suki has to be scum. After checking post timings and looking through Golden's filter, I'm not so sure anymore. Please take a look at Golden. Consider the fact that a Godfather bussing a teammate D1 is a really safe play. Are there any reasons he's a confirmed townie besides him voting for, and getting pressured by Heaven? I really think I have something. I'm going to reread Golden's filter a couple more times just to make sure this is correct. | ||
Crossfire99
United States1529 Posts
I've gone through your filter one last time and there's no way I'm ever voting for you. So if you're mafia, congrats on the win. But if I'm right about you (which I think I am), and you're right about me (which you are), we can kill 2 out of 3: suki, miltonkram, and golden. I'm honestly still not sure, but I'm leaning toward suki being mafia. If only milton and golden would contribute more... I still need to look more at miltonkram and suki. I don't know where all my time went tonight. It is actually past 5 AM. 6:30 PM EST tomorrow I'll be back to the game and make more definitive posts before I sleep. No NBA game to distract me tomorrow. [/QUOTE] I feel the same way about you. Are you going to be around from 6:30 EDT (it should be EDT not EST) until you sleep? I want to be able to discuss stuff with you and I'll probably be on sometime soon after 9:00 EDT. Also, golden get in here and post your thoughts. I am really interested in your thoughts on this whole situation. | ||
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Crossfire99
United States1529 Posts
@Crossfire I've gone through your filter one last time and there's no way I'm ever voting for you. So if you're mafia, congrats on the win. But if I'm right about you (which I think I am), and you're right about me (which you are), we can kill 2 out of 3: suki, miltonkram, and golden. I'm honestly still not sure, but I'm leaning toward suki being mafia. If only milton and golden would contribute more... I still need to look more at miltonkram and suki. I don't know where all my time went tonight. It is actually past 5 AM. 6:30 PM EST tomorrow I'll be back to the game and make more definitive posts before I sleep. No NBA game to distract me tomorrow. I feel the same way about you. Are you going to be around from 6:30 EDT (it should be EDT not EST) until you sleep? I want to be able to discuss stuff with you and I'll probably be on sometime soon after 9:00 EDT. Also, golden get in here and post your thoughts. I am really interested in your thoughts on this whole situation. | ||
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Crossfire99
United States1529 Posts
On June 22 2012 18:10 sciberbia wrote: Also, can you explain this quote? I'd like to hear other people's thoughts on this too. Is it just me or does he claim scum hardcore? How can this be a typo? And how drunk would he have to be to slip this as mafia? + Show Spoiler + Yay! I can quote correctly again. Thinking about this, I actually think this completely proves Golden's innocence. One of the rules of this game is to play to win. If golden is scum and actually died there, he just outed his mafia buddy. This is completely against the rules and therefore he just ruined the game for everyone. I actually think it is a just typo. Also, if it turns out that golden is scum, this game better be declared a misgame or something due to the above quote. | ||
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Crossfire99
United States1529 Posts
On June 22 2012 23:39 Crossfire99 wrote: + Show Spoiler + Yay! I can quote correctly again. Thinking about this, I actually think this completely proves Golden's innocence. One of the rules of this game is to play to win. If golden is scum and actually died there, he just outed his mafia buddy. This is completely against the rules and therefore he just ruined the game for everyone. I actually think it is a just typo. Also, if it turns out that golden is scum, this game better be declared a misgame or something due to the above quote. Nevermind. Ignore this analysis. I was advised by a coach that this should only be viewed as a slip of the tongue. No matter his alignment, he should have written town. We should use the rest of his filter to judge him. | ||
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
Don't worry, not gonna disappear anytime soon  @All GG all, was fun while it lasted, off to the obs to see if they are raging at me right now :p Good luck town! Its up to you all now. | ||
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
Your case against scum suki is that when my scumbuddies died, I started playing more townie because I had nothing to lose. My case against you is that when your scumbuddies died, you started playing more scummy because you were much closer to losing. @sciberbia your NK analysis makes sense in a way, but if you really think that crossfire is as confirmed town as alan was, then there's really no difference between NKing him or NKing alan last night. We've already shown that we analyse NK's to death, it's not a stretch to assume the last scum would kill alan to mess with our brains. Put it this way, if crossfire was NK'd, what would you, sciberbia, have taken from the NK? Would you really have pushed for a suki lynch or would you have followed the same line of reasoning now and seen it as a point against Milton? The NK has the base merit of getting rid of the 100% confirmed townie, which Milton has to do. . Also, thinking about a possible scum golden, I don't even want to analyse golden's play. I personally won't accept a scum win if golden flips red, because mafia is a game that relies on communication, however little. Golden hasn't simply lurked, he's left the game. Maybe that's me just getting frustrated though. . Milton's post surprised me. If he really were scum I'd expect even a tiny amount of pressure on me. If we all lynch golden and golden flips green, scum milton has sciberbia, crossfire and suki to choose from to NK. he has to kill one of crossfire and sciberbia because im the only one even slightly suspicious. But I really really don't think this is a good line of play from him. It doesn't make sense to soft defend me like this, when it would be just as sensible to soft pressure me. Guess I'll be taking yet another close look at everyone. | ||
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
his slips: His soft defense of roflwaffles ("..the unvote seems less scummy") His soft support of rofls ("as far as alan133 is concerned you may have something") His nervousness pre-heaven lynch his playstyle: following rofl's death, he stopped contributing to town and simply followed the strongest case. his busses were easy to do. crossfire's recent post So he went from being pretty much convinced of suki's townieness and really liking her case to thinking she's scum in the second post, but then we should ignore her? Huh??? Finally, he says suki is scum if unforgiven is green. What convinced him so completely that suki is scum? He never mentioned it in his posts. He just says she is scum. Also I don't get how if someone is the most logical candidate for a lynch you should just ignore them. Thinking on why he hasn't taken a strong stance on me: Prior to today, it was beneficial for him to not take a strong stance on me or even read me as town. I have been the primary suspect for so long that if I got lynched, the other players would look bad for pushing my lynch and he gets to stay out of the spotlight. Perhaps due to the fact that he's never seen me as scummy, he can't help to push my lynch or he'd look really suspicious (due to inconsistency). This weird non-committal response on who is town is the best he can manage and still stay consistent with his previous views. I don't know how he plans to survive the final day, I really don't. But I still think he slipped several times and that you can find scum motivation for his play style and posts. Maybe the best he can come up with is to have me crossfire and himself at the end of the game and pull some WIFOM sneakiness against me. I don't know how to analyse the NK and make it fit Milton without resorting to WIFOM. But I don't think it discounts my case on him purely because there's possible WIFOM going on. | ||
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
heavonearth attacking him from the get-go Evidence against: "Essentially i'm all for an agressive early game." - Makes statement, doesn't deliver http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15081294 - List post. Summarizes the day, not all that useful for town. - isn't suspicious of anyone at the time except MJ. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15081396 Avoid commenting on HeavOnEarth until sciberbia provokes him Crossfire "seems okay" reserves judgement on suki and alan The post afterwords says he can't believe he missed sciberbia's case on Crossfire and maybe he's totally wrong. Looks like a possible preparation to redirect attention against crossfire. " if i get bussed off by the mafia and you see i flip - So basically, if the mafia target him and he ends up getting lynched, HeavOnEarth is golden's prime target. The wording is really strange, to the point that I think it may be a slip. "bussing" is only done by mafia against their teammates. the scum/town mess up could have been a slip that he sees himself as scum. If he dies and flips scum, then the fact that HeavOnEarth is his prime target would relieve some pressure on HeavOnEarth. - Golden was not really under fire here. Its weird that he would say what amounts to 'if I get lynched today, my primary suspect is the current primary suspect of the day'. Golden's uncharacteristic frustration - Ok, I can see this as a tell on him. The frustration could be genuine but doesn't necessarily have to be because he is town. He could be frustrated and be scum as well. The fact that it's uncharacteristic is actually very interesting now that I'm taking an in depth look at golden. At this point I'm willing to put it as a point against him. in regards to HeavonEarth. In relation to my: a) knowing i'm town. b) Him trying to bus me one the grounds of "seems like a solid case". c) lacklustre contribution and no rebuttle to any arguments. i feel like he see's a bandwagon forming and jumps on straight away. #VOTE: HeavonEarth This quote has always given me difficulty when I try to interpret it. It's really confusing. Here is my interpretation. a) "I know I'm town" - self proclamation of role. Not useful b) "Him trying to bus me..." - Heavon has a weak case on golden c) Heavon didn't contribute or rebute any arguments. Heavon sees a bandwagon forming on golden and jumps on it? That doesn't make sense cuz heavon was the first person to attack golden. In any case, he votes HeavOn because Heavon hasn't been playing a strong game? But there's no actual scummy behaviour that golden lists as his reason to vote him. this is suspicious. "We'll obviously need to keep an eye on Alan113 just because everyone needs to be pressured several times during the course of the game, i just never found him to be as scummy as say HeavonEarth is looking atm." - Seems wishy-washy to say 'we obviously need to keep an eye on Alan113". "my opinion on vig role claiming is that its too late. they should have said it like 5 minutes before the day 2 post. how can we trust the person who claims now? anyone could claim it. if they said who they were shooting like 5seconds before daypost then it could be 100% confirmed they were town. so dont claim now." - Encouraging blues not to role claim, thereby denying information to town. If the vig does roleclaim seems like he may try to discredit the vig, based on this post. Not voting: Austinmcc Crossfire99 First day: HeavonEarth dies with the minimum 6 of 6 votes. Roflwaffle being one of them. If they could mafia would have saved him and forced a mislynch. So i think that 2 mafia WOULD NOT have voted for Heavonearth first day. It just doesnt pay to have him lynched. A NL would have benefited them so much more. So under that reasoning its my opinion that any of these people had a likely mafia flip from this point: Astinmcc RIP Crossfire S0lstice Trackdoor His list of likely mafia are all confirmed towns. He tries to reason that both mafia wouldn't have bussed their teammate. Under this logic it clears both him and roflwaffle from suspicion. Lol last time i ever stick my neck out for someone i think is town, what a retard alan. your argument that i contradict myself is invalid. I don't ever contradict myself, i purely state that no-one is ever confirmed town until they flip after saying that i think you are safe. read it again bro. Getting upset because someone tried to point out a contradiction he made. "I don't ever contradict myself" .. This actually seems too bold for a townie to say. A townie's game is ruled by uncertainty, to state that you never contradict yourself is like saying you'll never make a mistake. Very suspicious. my case on alan. he is a wanker. bahahahaha. that makes me smile every time. Sorry for being rude. but this game gets me super anxious. i did over react a bit. i'd be happy to be on the list if there was one generated. but i want trackd00r at the #1 spot on the list. that's my trade off. bold move from s0lstice and i am also wary of this being a scum-slip. how about: Trackd00r, Me, s0stice, 4th person (i dont mind because i think Trackd00r will flip red). i'm wary of unforgiven also, he's replaced MJ yet morphed into the same character. Points fingers at trackd00r, s0lstice and unforgiven. All of whom are dead. Following this he disappears from the thread. Interesting note. He said he'd reserve judgement on me until after Day 1, but he never commented on me. This is in a mafia's favour cuz it looked like I would be lynched anyways. ---------------------- Summary I had an epiphany. Milton said that after the rofl and heavon were killed, the last remaining mafia doesn't have to do anything special to appear townie. He just has to play like a townie. This means that, if we're looking at golden, the most important information is actually right at the beginning of the game. Extreme lurking like what golden is doing is beneficial to mafia as long as he doesn't get modkilled. Basically town just rips each other apart and he never has to say a word. Now, it pains me to say this, but if I compare D1/N1 between Miltonkram and Golden, practically every post golden makes has suspicious elements to it. The reasoning that HeavOnEarth targeted golden so early is flimsy - after all, who expects a strong case to be made that early on Day 1? Perhaps it was a clever distractionary move. It may have been that Golden's best move to do after rofl was killed was to just disappear completely. If he had kept up his style of posting post N1 he definitely would have been under a lot of scrutiny, but since he disappeared no one really paid attention to him. Help me out sciberbia and crossfire. I have now posted two big cases, one on Milton and one on Golden. Do you think my case on Milton is weak or that there are any particular things about Milton's posts that confirm he is town in your mind? Do you think my case on golden has merit? I have been single-mindedly going after Milton because I thought my points were conclusive, but now I'm not sure. The NK and Milton's soft defence of me can only be explained by WIFOM and desperate play if he's scum, but if golden is scum then he's in a good position (minus the possibility of being modkilled for lack of participation). I will have to mull over my thoughts a bit. | ||
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
The post afterwords says he can't believe he missed sciberbia's case on Crossfire and maybe he's totally wrong. Looks like a possible preparation to redirect attention against crossfire. By the way this completely explains the first night kill. Alan's primary suspicion was crossfire. Crossfire had a decent amount of people suspicious of him. Golden is preparing to redirect D2 lynch to Crossfire. | ||
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I just really don't know. Everyone looks town to me. I'll be online later. @golden If you are town, could you please show up? | ||
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Crossfire99
United States1529 Posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=331498&user=92568 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=337671&user=92568 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=340298&user=92568 Basically, he never got frustrated in those games and lashed out. He was always nice and helpful no matter the situation. He also had a strong strong strong dislike of lurkers because he realized how much they hurt town. So what I want to hear from him is why is he playing in a very scummy way by just lurking, which he readily acknowledged as very anti-town in his previous games? What are everyone else's thoughts on his filter from previous games? I will look at your thoughts, suki, later tonight. I just realized I need to leave to get some stuff done right now. | ||
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