Newbie Mini Mafia XVII - Page 31

Miltonkram puts roflwaffles in his top 2 most suspicious about 21 hours into D1:
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Not only does he show suspicions on roflwaffles, but his reasoning is actually quite good. roflwaffles did make himself look scared by backing down off his top suspect just because people disagreed with his case.

roflowaffles then made 2 posts. One post in which he said miltonkram had "defeated his own arguments" and then this post further pressuring alan:
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Then, miltonkram backs off of roflwaffes, because miltonkram sees that roflwaffles is still pressuring alan. Now, this whole back-and-forth does seem like it could be an artificial conversation between two mafia.

But, don't you think it would be a bit too obvious? Why does miltonkram back off of roflwaffles if this is a bussing thing? Nobody else showed any suspicions of roflwaffles, so it wasn't like roflwaffles was in any danger. I don't think it makes sense for a scum miltonkram would be backing off so quickly there. Surely he would realize it'd look suspicious if either him or roflwaffles ever died and flipped red.

Anyway, I have to consider the whole thing with roflwaffles slight evidence in his favor. If Miltonkram really did bus HeavOnEarth, that means he kinda bussed both scumbuddies on D1. This seems a bit unnecessary and overly ambitious.

I think this is really good evidence for miltonkram being town, especially relative to suki.

Here is a summary of how the alan bandwaggon rolled on D1+ Show Spoiler +

Now miltonkram and roflwaffles being scumbuddies wouldn't make any sense here. roflwaffles brings up a case, two people aren't convinced, and then scumbuddy miltonkram jumps on the scum bandwaggon? What? Highly unlikely. I've read miltonkram's mafia QT from NMM XIV and he really tries not to tie himself to his scumbuddy.

Then, after s0Lstice and suki jump on the bandwaggon, miltonkram jumps off, and posts a bit of defense for alan. How does a mafia miltonkram expect alan to get mislynched by behaving like that?

I think it's more likely that miltonkram read my defense of alan and liked it. He also looked back through alan's filter, and decided to back off of him.

suki's movements on this bandwaggon look far more suspicious. She changes her mind at the worst possible times.

This has to be counted in his favor. First, look at how he calls out HeavOnEarth twice for lurking:





Then, he is third on the HeavOnEarth bandwaggon, after me and s0Lstice. Seeing as HeavOnEarth was s0Lstice's top target, and in my top 3, and s0Lstice and I had a lot of thread influence, it would have been quite risky for a scum miltonkram to add any more fuel to the fire. Does he really want to get the godfather lynched D1?

Then miltonkram goes to sleep, wakes up, and reads the thread. s0Lstice is pushing a HeavOnEarth lynch. alan has also voted him. Then miltonkram sensibly puts his vote on HeavOnEarth. All of miltonkram's actions contributed to the HeavOnEarth lynch, so it's certainly good evidence in favor of him being townie.

Now what kind of lame-ass bus would these posts be? Miltonkram's pre-lynch nervousness has been held against him. At first, I saw it that way too. But if you really think about it, I think it's good evidence in his favor.





Look at the thread temperature at that point. s0Lstice has been pushing for a HeavOnEarth lynch. alan, suki, miltonkram, and roflwaffles have all voted HeavOnEarth. sciberbia will surely vote HeavOnEarth.

Now if miltonkram is mafia, he sees 5 votes on HeavOnEarth. The bandwaggon against him includes both scum AND s0Lstice/sciberbia. In what fantasy world is HeavOnEarth not getting lynched? If miltonkram is scum, he clearly already resigned himself to the fact that HeavOnEarth is getting lynched, seeing as both he and roflwaffles voted HeavOnEarth.

So if miltonkram knows HeavOnEarth is getting lynched, and knows HeavOnEarth will flip scum, what on earth is the point of these 2 posts that don't make him look that great if HeavonEarth flips scum? Wouldn't he do better to look more committed to the lynch?

First of all, assuming golden flips VT (or scum), it's pretty obvious that we have no more blues >_<. Which means the last mafia is surely a goon. Having a roleblocker vs a mere vigilante & veteran is ridiculously overpowered. Additionally, nobody has been RB'd all game.

So killing austinmcc without even roleblocking him isn't nearly as much of a boon to mafia. They can't stop him shooting roflwaffles if he is vigi. And shooting a lynchable veteran is a terrible idea.

So I'm quite sure the NK of austinmcc was a suboptimal play. During N1, miltonkram would surely think he has some slim chance of winning the game as mafia, whereas suki would probably know she is dead. So I think suki is more likely to have made a suboptimal NK for the lulz or just some random reason not related to winning the game.

In favor of suki though, she was active all night, whereas miltonkram was gone. Seeing as blues we had both submitted their night actions in a timely manner, the scrambling of the mods was likely done for mafia's benefit. More likely to be because of miltonkram than suki.

Overall, I don't think this is great evidence for either one of them (suki/miltonkram) over the other.

I see two possible reasons for his suggestion to get blues to breadcrumb at the end of N1:
1) He is town and thought this was a good idea
2) He is mafia and was desperately trying to find the (nonexistant >_<) cop

When I asked him about his reasoning, he made this post"
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This strongly suggests to me that he is town. If a mafia miltonkram got called out on giving town bad advice, I'd expect some decent excuse. But here he shows some really in-depth thinking on the subject from a townie perspective. Reads quite townie to me.

I've already talked about this a bit. I really think crossfire was a more sensible kill for miltonkram. If golden is mafia, I think he made a mistake by killing alan. He should have killed crossfire.

If the last mafia is suki/miltonkram, I have no doubt that they'd have some sort of plan for what went down today. Scum suki seems to have had a plan: kill alan --> get miltonkram lynched. Very straightforward.

But miltonkram not so much. First of all, he doesn't actually post until quite a bit of time has passed. This allows 2 votes to get thrown on him without much resistance. Then, he accuses golden moreso than suki.

I really don't think he'd have planned on lynching golden today. Leave sciberbia alive --> lynch golden doesn't seem like it would have been a solid plan.