EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XVII - Page 32
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
Does anyone think we shouldn't be discussing reads tonight? I think we should. Regardless of who is mafia, a universal town-read (me or crossfire) is guaranteed to die. @crossfire I think we have some serious decision-making to do tonight. If we can't agree by the dawn, it's gonna be hell analyzing the NK. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
@suki, @miltonkram I assume you are most suspicious of each other? Can you let us know where your heads are at? @crossfire I feel pretty strongly that we should lynch suki rather than miltonkram tomorrow. I also feel pretty strongly that I'll be depressed for a week if we blow this game. So I'll spend the next 22 hours trying to convince you if I have to. If you don't agree with me by 8PM tomorrow, D5 is gonna be a crapshoot. Whichever one of us is left alive will have to guess whether the mafia would have killed the player accusing them or not. I guess I'll make a post about suki tonight. @observers My heart sank when I saw the double popcorn. Sorry about another mislynch, but at least the finish will be really dramatic. Unless crossfire is mafia. That would be extremely lame. @mods, suki, miltonkram, crossfire Can we shorten the day phase tomorrow after everyone has made up thier mind? I don't think I could stand waiting another 48 hours. And I feel like we'll all have decided our vote by a few hours into the day. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
He accidentally voted HeavOnEarth instead of Unforgiven. I see this as evidence in his favor. If he were mafia, he'd subconsciously feel very different about the two players. Perhaps not so much if he is town and thinks Unforgiven is mafia. I'm in the process of writing some stuff on suki. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
First of all, please reread previous cases on suki If I've learned anything this game, it's that for whatever reason, I am better at scumhunting on D1 than post-D1. I think I actually had 2 out of 3 scum on D1 and the third on N1. Here is my first case on suki: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=344270¤tpage=8#151 Then s0Lstice accused suki during N1. I think s0Lstice actually had all three mafia by N1: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=344270¤tpage=15#283 My case on suki during D2: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=344270¤tpage=18#358 Crossfire also made a post on suki D2, but I don't think you need to be reminded of your own case. I'm not going to restate all the D1 stuff. I think that's been beaten to death. I'll just talk about some other stuff since D1. Really really bad reads OK now I grant that the language of suki's filter (especially since D1) reads pretty townie. But in forum games, some people are just good at making their language seem townie. Judging by actions is usually better than judging by langauge. Let's look at what she has actually done in regards to pushing lynches: + Show Spoiler + D1: pushes alan (a townie). defends HeavOnEarth(a mafia). Only votes HeavOnEarth after it likely doesn't matter D2: pushes trackd00r hard (a townie) D3: pushes unforgiven hard (a townie) D4: pushes golden (a townie) D5: probably pushes miltonkram (a probable townie) How many times can somebody hurt town and not be mafia? It's no wonder we've mislynched 3 times in a row. We've been letting a a top suspect (suki) lead our lynches. Everyone who has been NK'd was suspicious of suki+ Show Spoiler + NK 1: austinmcc is suspicious of suki (maybe less so than golden, but still)] NK 2: s0Lstice is quite suspicious of suki (but she could also use it to push unforgiven) NK 3: alan is suspicious of suki. Why did alan not die earlier? He used to think suki was town. NK 4: probably sciberbia Everyone else's read on suki vs miltonkram+ Show Spoiler + Crossfire, I understand you're personal read of suki has been pretty town. Maybe that'll change as you read through filters. But, if there was ever a time to listen to other people's reads, now is probably it. Here are the last thoughts of all known or assumed townies on suki: austinmcc: suspicious of suki; no comment on milton s0Lstice: suki 2nd most suspicious; milton reads town trackd00r: no real comment on either unforgiven: suki town; miltonkram mafia alan: unsure on suki; not suspicious of miltonkram golden: suki suspicious; no comment on miltonkram sciberbia: suki mafia; miltonkram town Only unforgiven finds miltonkram more suspicious. And several people are significantly more suspicious of suki than of miltonkram. A few changes of tone+ Show Spoiler + The tone of suki's posts have changed a bit throughout the game. This is kinda indicative of a mafia because they try to be decietful. Here are some posts: + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 12:44 suki wrote: Is it just me or is trackd00r coming off as scummy already? ... BUT WAIT! Just ONE post previous to that he says this: ... Dude. You try to take a firm stance against something, and then you do the most scummy wishy-washy-ness thing ever the very next post. You're clearly informed about mafia as you brought up the idea of a day 1 RNG lynch, and being against a no lynch is not a difficult or complicated policy to hold. I feel that such a simple logical slip only happens if you're trying to play it safe and keep your options open. ##vote trackd00r + Show Spoiler + On June 16 2012 05:50 suki wrote: Did not contradict myself. I do not think I blundered. I did not bounce around. I analysed the game and based on my judgement I focused my attention on the one person I believed was the most scum, and I didn't let off until I was convinced otherwise. The only evidence against me is from viewing my actions from a biased point of view. I've played a strong town game, and you're trying to spin it like I'm playing a strong mafia game by playing a strong town game. + Show Spoiler + On June 17 2012 11:03 suki wrote: Anyways, hum. I'm a little disappointed. Firstly, I'm disappointed that nobody's commented on my case against trackd00r. I put a lot of time into it and I don't think my points are easily dismissed. If find s0lstice's tunneling of me (and lack of comment on my defence) very strange. Maybe not suspicious, but strange. I feel that I've been upfront for this whole game. I've stated my suspicions boldly, presented my cases clearly. I've been wrong, about alan and about HeavOn (the so called 'scummy' defense of HeavOn) but that's not a scummy thing in itself. I'm being targeted because I haven't been scared of making mistakes, of calling people out, of changing my vote to who I think is the most scummy. I spend a lot of time on analysing the person I think is most suspicious rather than making shallow analysis on everyone who I think could be suspicious.. ... Neither s0lstice nor sciberbia (who both pretty much have the same case against me) have given my defence any credit or really even a response. No one except alan has really posted their in-depth thoughts on trackd00r. And trackd00r still hasn't delivered any useful posts in his own defence. I think I've gone through everything I need/want to say. + Show Spoiler + On June 17 2012 13:28 suki wrote: s0lstice, I think you did your job right and that if I really were scum, your pressure on me would be extremely effective. Don't feel bad for pushing me, that's what a good townie should do. Plus you can't be right ALL the time right? haha. I take it as a huge compliment that you think I'd be up to playing such a risky/advanced level of scum. I have the unique perspective of having a town read on everybody (more or less), including myself, leaving the only likely suspect to be trackd00r. I also feel very strongly about my case on him (hence my disappointment that nobody's really commented on it), and his 'OOPS' post just confirms my suspicions. @sciberbia I just really have had bad luck and bad reads. I have to say, it feels pretty awful to put so much effort into hunting scum, only to keep missing. I'd love to go over my thoughts behind my moves this game, but I'll do that post-game so I don't clog up the thread when we really need to focus on lynching scum. + Show Spoiler + On June 18 2012 12:56 suki wrote: My outlook on the game post-lynch: People will be taking a much closer look at me. It's to be expected, after the case that s0lstice and sciberbia brought up. I feel I pushed a good case on trackd00r and its frustrating that he wasn't able to defend himself adequately. I once again went through all the players in the game. I think I am just going to accept the hard truth that I just blow at analysis. ... In summary: I am town. That's my only defence at this point. If you believe me, then I hope you'll take a really close look at alan's case on golden. If you don't believe me, then I still hope you'll take a really close look at alan's case on golden. Going to bed soon but I'll keep up with the thread and post my thoughts. Just a little too burned out to do any sort of heavy analysis right now. + Show Spoiler + On June 18 2012 15:09 suki wrote: For those of you suspicious of me, one thing that you should note is that my play style had no fail safe in place when my reads eventually became wrong. ... I may not have been good at hunting scum, but I was good at digging out the non-committal behaviour of blues, I guess. + Show Spoiler + On June 19 2012 15:34 suki wrote: I realize that I am bouncing around now. I think it has to do with just losing all faith in my own judgement, in addition to no one's really listening to me anyways. I still want to post my reads, still want to try to contribute my thoughts when people bring up cases. I still want to believe I can help push for a victory, instead of crawling into a hole and disappearing for the rest of the game because no one will believe me. + Show Spoiler + On June 21 2012 10:08 suki wrote: This is my case against Miltonkram. Come daytime I will vote for him. I can't see sciberbia or crossfire as scum. I can't see HeavOnEarth pressuring a scum Golden the way he did. Milton is now the last and only suspect in my mind. hmm I was expecting to find some better quotes. Maybe this section isn't the best evidence. You can decide for yourself. Clear plan for scum suki on D4+ Show Spoiler + I already talked about this a bit in my post on miltonkram. If suki is scum, I'd have expected her to have a plan for D4. I think her plan was to get miltonkram lynched by killing alan. And then kill sciberbia and WIFOM her way into getting golden lynched. AND if golden gets modkilled D4/D5, this works out brilliantly for her. If this is true, I'd have expected her to be very reluctant to back off miltonkram. And this holds true. She makes some pretty faulty analysis on the NK, insisting that it makes sense for miltonkram where it really doesn't. I could post more, but I think these are the major points. Especially reread the cases on her D1/N1 actions. The alan bandwaggon, faulty trackd00r case, and defense of HeavOnEarth all look scummy. Nothing really looks scummy about miltonkram, so I really think suki is mafia. | ||
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
So here we are. There has been one thing bothering me for the entire game. Why am I still alive? After so much pressure against me from sciberbia, how is it that I haven't kicked the bucket yet? Sciberbia has consistently put me as his top scum read. Yet he lets me slip through his fingers every time. First, he got distracted by trackd00r. Then, he tunnelled unforgiven. Finally, he somehow let us sway his impression of golden to make him vote for golden. Here is my prediction. Crossfire will die tonight. Sciberbia will push me, and Milton will be forced to agree with you, and I'll be lynched. Why will crossfire die tonight? Because sciberbia can't die, because he's the last scum. With this final mislynch he strikes a home run for mafia and takes home the gold. My Case on Sciberbia The posts where he votes for lynch targets Trackdoor:+ Show Spoiler + Since the NK of austinmcc, trackd00r has started to look a lot worse relative to suki. I already talked about how the mod's blue text suggests to me that the mafia hadn't submitted their NK. And I think this would be more likely due to trackd00r than suki. Also, suki has been very active and I just don't see why she would be putting in all this effort if she is scum. Maybe just to make us do 1 more mislynch? On the other hand, trackd00r has been pretty quiet since the day post. In summary I don't feel overly confident about either of suki's or trackd00r's cases individually. But they are definitely top 2 candidates on my list and I think both have a decent chance of being the last scum. I'm honestly not sure which I think is more likely the last mafia, but it seems suki has at least guilted us into lynching trackd00r first so... ##unvote ##Vote trackd00r Unforgiven:+ Show Spoiler + So, I am going to look past the circumstancial evidence, and conclude that I'm leaning town on suki ... First of all, s0Lstice is a pretty smart dude. And he was townie. And now he's dead. s0Lstice wasn't the perfect NK for mafia. He was a likely subject of protection from medic/jailkeeper. Additionally, he didn't look blue at all. Additionally, if unforgiven were hypothetically NOT mafia, having s0Lstice around for D3 would help to push another mislynch. So why did he die? The NK of s0Lstice makes perfect sense if Unforgiven is mafia. Do you really think unforgiven would be able to avoid getting lynched today if s0Lstice were still in the game? I doubt it. In conclusion, I think unforgiven is likely the last mafia. ##Vote unforgiven_ve Golden:+ Show Spoiler + Well it seems we are all agreement on lynching golden. His filter reads kinda townie to me (barring when he claimed scum). I'm not buying too much into the comparison with previous games. Golden seemed generally mad, whether town or mafia. His line about the vigilante was definitely bad advice, not sure if it's scum-motivated though. But town reads are relative at this point and I'd definitely rather lynch golden than miltonkram. Golden also fits with the NKs more than the other 2, especially for austinmcc and alan. Also, if you are going to consider D1 busses, suki or miltonkram on HeavOnEarth was more of a real (potential) bus than HeavOnEarth on golden. HeavOnEarth even kinda backed off of it of his own accord, which felt odd. Also, the whole thing about his "slip" where mafia is bussing him off and him flipping scum has to be counted against him. Anyway, I'm not gonna waste too much time trying to convince 3 people already voting golden to vote golden. I really hope he flips scum tomorrow, and I think there's a pretty decent chance. @Crossfire If golden flips town, we have to decide whether to lynch suki or miltonkram. I just feel that suki has to be more likely mafia than miltonkram. I'd assume your not convinced of this? We should definitely talk about this during night phase if golden flips town, and maybe even before then since today's lynch is already pretty much decided. I'll probably make a post tomorrow detailing why I think miltonkram is the more likely town. But for now, today's lynch is pretty much decided so I'm just going to sleep. 8 PM tomorrow can't come fast enough x_x ##Vote O.Golden_ne Vote Timings: He was 7th out of 12 to vote for HeavOnEarth He was 6th out of 9 to vote for trackd00r He was 1st out of 7 to vote for unforgiven. He was 4th out of 5 to vote for golden. Why this is relevant: His vote on HeavOnEarth was made after HeavOn's lynch was pretty much decided. Basically he didn't want to bus HeavOn until the last moment. His vote timing on HeavOnEarth is the most important out of the four, because after rofl dies, he can play a strong townie game. Therefore, I think it's very telling that he was so late to jump on HeavOnEarth. His stance on me: Day 1: + Show Spoiler + "Definitely" suspicious Day 2:+ Show Spoiler + I've gone through the case on suki, and I get the same feeling as s0Lstice; that suki is mafia and did a better job than last game of hiding it. - s0lstice's name bolded for my own emphasis. I haven't gone through the cases on trackd00r or golden yet, but I think its pretty likely suki is the last mafia, so ##Vote suki In summary -- suki and trackd00r are in my tier of top suspicion -- I find suki more suspicious based on posts -- I just realized that the whole NK business suggests trackd00r is mafia rather than suki -- I'll study track00r more over the next 24 hours and post more thoughts -- I think we will probably end up lynching both of them anyway (assuming we don't win today), so it's hardly likely to matter. Since the NK of austinmcc, trackd00r has started to look a lot worse relative to suki. - He analyses the NK and puts trackd00r as his top suspect. Day 3:+ Show Spoiler + IN SUMMARY -- I am for lynching suki, and then miltonkram if she flips town -- This isn't so much because miltonkram looks scummy, but that everyone else looks townie -- I am obsessed with figuring out why austinmcc died, and I have a possible explanation I just really don't see suki making this NK. I don't think the mafia coach would have suggested this NK to suki, and I highly doubt she would have proposed the idea on her own. Not only does it seem out of character to make such an odd choice of NK, but I think I am right in saying suki was being collectively viewed as one of the most suspicious people during N1. ... I'm leaning town on suki The thing I like most about this case is that the NK of austinmcc really fits here. ... ##Vote unforgiven_ve Day 4:+ Show Spoiler + would really like to lynch golden and then suki if golden filps town. But town reads are relative at this point and I'd definitely rather lynch golden than miltonkram. Golden also fits with the NKs more than the other 2, especially for austinmcc and alan. Also, if you are going to consider D1 busses, suki or miltonkram on HeavOnEarth was more of a real (potential) bus than HeavOnEarth on golden. HeavOnEarth even kinda backed off of it of his own accord, which felt odd. Also, the whole thing about his "slip" where mafia is bussing him off and him flipping scum has to be counted against him. Anyway, I'm not gonna waste too much time trying to convince 3 people already voting golden to vote golden. - Why golden? Why is golden a better lynch target than me? His only point is that the NK makes more sense, that the heavonearth bus wasnt good, that he slipped saying 'scum' instead of 'town'. But how is that a better case than his case on me? @Crossfire If golden flips town, we have to decide whether to lynch suki or miltonkram. I just feel that suki has to be more likely mafia than miltonkram. I'd assume your not convinced of this? I've already talked about this a bit. I really think crossfire was a more sensible kill for miltonkram. If golden is mafia, I think he made a mistake by killing alan. He should have killed crossfire. If the last mafia is suki/miltonkram, I have no doubt that they'd have some sort of plan for what went down today. Scum suki seems to have had a plan: kill alan --> get miltonkram lynched. Very straightforward. But miltonkram not so much. First of all, he doesn't actually post until quite a bit of time has passed. This allows 2 votes to get thrown on him without much resistance. Then, he accuses golden moreso than suki. I really don't think he'd have planned on lynching golden today. Leave sciberbia alive --> lynch golden doesn't seem like it would have been a solid plan. - He uses that specific day's NK to target me and discredit a scum Miltonkram case. He jumps from viewing me as the most suspicious on Day 1, Day 2, to townie on Day 3 (solely because of NK's), to most suspicious on Day 4 and now Day 5. The biggest question is, if I was really the most suspicious person to him, why wouldn't he hard press for me to get lynched? Why is his attention drawn away every single time? Because he planned it that way. Like he said, he really loves to analyse NK's. And his analysis of NK's has always pointed to a townie. He has used the NK's in trackd00r and unforgiven and golden's lynches to choose a less-suspicious looking candidate over me every time. The simple explanation is this: He planned the NK's for this very reason. Sciberbia is using the NK's to direct the town's target as he pleases, while keeping me alive for the very last day as the 'least townie of all the remaining townies'. Isn't it strange how we always seem to have a surefire mafia lynch, but every time we're disappointed? One of the biggest reasons we were so sure of unforgiven and golden was because the NK's didn't make sense if they weren't scum. Well, now we've reached the final stage of the game, and you know what? The lynches still don't make sense if I'm scum or if milton is scum. But sciberbia is willing to discard that to vote for 'the least townie of all the remaining townies'. This is the blindfold that has been pulled over our eyes this entire game. The idea that the NK's had meaning and pointed to the last mafia. The reality is that the real meaning of the NK's is to direct the town to take itself out one by one. The NK's all make sense when you view it from this perspective. The final stage of the game Here we are, the last remaining townies forced into a corner, with town reads on everybody, and the only option seemingly to go after the person who seems the least townie. This is not how the game should end. The game should end by us finding who is the wolf in sheep's clothing. Isn't it strange how sciberbia's impression of milton flip-flopped throughout the last few days? First, he thought milton didn't look scummy, but couldn't see why he couldn't be scum. Then, he was willing to lynch me followed by milton, who he figured was the most likely to be scum after me. Then, he thinks milton is probably town and targets unforgiven. Then he puts milton as his #1 town read above crossfire. When sciberbia stated that milton looked most likely to be scum after me, that was after trackd00r died (D2). Now that we've reached the endgame, he thinks that: If miltonkram is really scum, he played one hell of a D1. Honestly since D1, he hasn't acted quite as townie, but he seems to have been really busy... Think of this from a scum sciberbia perspective. In the beginning he's keeping his options open to lynch Milton (by pointing out his play could possibly scummy). In the end, he wants to keep Milton on his side by saying Milton is 100% town. He's also put Crossfire as 100% town. Both Milton and Crossfire have a town read on me, but when sciberbia lays out the scenario like this, they have no choice but to reluctantly lynch me. - Summary - Sciberbia was late to vote for HeavOnEarth. - Sciberbia has had me as his most scummy read for the whole game but somehow always gets distracted by the NK's. - Sciberbia has used NK's as reasons to attack or defend players, but now that he's at the end he simply gives up the analysis and decides to vote the least scummy townie. - Sciberbia has painted Miltonkram as possibly scummy and also as his strongest town read, both due to Milton's day 1 play. - The NK's have made sense for the current lynch target every day, and sciberbia is always happy to point it out. We miss, everyone feels horrible. Then suddenly someone else is most likely to have made those NK's. The scum in Mafia XV won because town wouldn't analyse the NK's. In this game, the scum has almost won because town put so much emphasis on the NK's, not realizing that they've been lead astray the whole time. - Also note that sciberbia doesn't give any reason for voting for golden over me, EXCEPT due to his analysis of the NK's. Sciberbia had put golden on a town read for the whole game, but somehow he complacently let golden get lynched despite feeling I was the most suspicious. - Regarding sciberbia's insta-bus on rofl. I bet he looked at rofl's play and knew that s0lstice and other good players would inevitably pick up on the slips. Rather than let that happen, he decided to take massive town cred for the insta-bus. Note that prior to his incriminating post on rofl, he hadn't even commented on rofl's play at all. I think it's also telling that rofl was relieved to have been shot by alan. It means if sciberbia put that plan forward to bus rofl, rofl would have happily accepted. ---- Alan's case on sciberbia: @sciberbia - Could it be he, the mastermind behind everything? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15162490 I am not trying to take credit, but I did posted roflwaffle as my prime suspect before I wrote an entire post in it, and it was before sciberbia's case on rolf. Perhaps Sciberbia noticed the slip made by rolfwaffle, and sees that he generated a lot of suspicious around him? s0Lstice did say he has a good idea who is the 2nd scum is. Sciberbia's supposedly bandwagony actions He jumped on suki's case in day 2 after s0Lstice, arguing that trackd00r or suki is probably scums because confirmed scums did not attack them. Please keep in mind sciberbia was also in this category. He goes by saying did not contribute much to the lynching of both scums. Before the rolf post, has he really committed to any scum hunting? Switching from Suki to Unforgiven_ve If sciberbia is the last mafia, he could be doing this to buy more time to get another mislynch, with a dead guy supporting him. ---- Interesting note. If you look at the Day 1 sequence of events, Sciberbia posts his last post 6 hours before the night ends. During those six hours is when the mods were asking for night actions to be turned in. He shows up just barely before the night ends. In other words, the reasoning that he used through the whole game about Night actions not being turned in until late during the night can also be applied to him, because he wasn't around during the time that the mods were asking for night actions. ---- Also remember that unforgiven called out sciberbia for uncharacteristic tunneling http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15161837 You are overeager to show your "scum hunting" skills, you are trying to take (and have succeded so far) town leadership, you remember me of the guys who won the last game i played, people fell for it, people didnt want to REALLY analyze the way he was playing. Theres 2 option for the last mafia to do: 1.- Always be under the radar and try to not gain any enemies and always look like you are in the same sintony as town and 2.- Be aggresive, take town leadership, point fingers to people who cant convince the town (for different reasons, posting, lurking, difficulty to express ideas) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15168782 + Show Spoiler + My last attempt will be this, going against my own belives and seeing you are blindly reading and using past games, i will show you what a mafia posted in NMM XV On May 31 2012 17:31 Xatalos wrote: blah - As things stand, I'm ready to go for a Unforgiven_ve lynch. However, I want to see your response first, Unforgiven_ve. You better impress with your next post or your filter looks really bad already. On May 31 2012 23:43 Xatalos wrote: blah Finally you posted something, but it's not what I was hoping for from a town Unforgiven_ve. More like what I expected from a Mafia Unforgiven_ve. This response convinced me. It's time to get the ball rolling. AHEM On June 20 2012 11:41 sciberbia wrote: Unforgiven's response didn't do anything for me. I'm not surprised, because my primary points of accusation are points that you cannot easily explain away. He has a lot of text, but doesn't say many things of substance. To summarize his post: On June 20 2012 14:48 sciberbia wrote: I was really unimpressed by Unforgiven's case on miltonkram. Here are my thoughts: bleh- http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15165897 The agressiveness coming from sciberbia and his "stubbornness" SCREAMS desperate mafia, i bet you he will go for suki then, now that suki's case is fogotten it will be his card up his slevee, ---- If sciberbia truly were town, he'd have pressed my case and not used the NK's time and time again to discredit me being scum. After all, NK's can be done for WIFOM reasons, right? Yet somehow he puts full confidence in the NK analysis, and he has no reason not to because town is grasping at straws for the most plausible scum and the NK reasoning makes perfect sense. This is my case against sciberbia. Have a good long look and see if you believe me when I say that he's been the town puppetmaster this whole time. | ||
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sciberbia
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Crossfire99
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sciberbia
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Crossfire99
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
If you view it that way, the day 1 and night 1 actions of all the players here are very important, because thats the only time that the 3rd scum had teammates to protect/deal with. sciberbia was one of the last to vote for heavon. And he didn't talk about rofl at ALL in the first day, prior to his big bus of rofl at the beginning of N1. | ||
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
Accusation that my vote on HeavOnEarth was late+ Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 17:27 sciberbia wrote: Yikes only 16 hours until the deadline and I'll be sleeping/working during most of that. I'm really tired and going to sleep now. Won't be super active again until about 1.5 hours before the deadline, but I'll try to keep up with the thread from work. It is really important that everyone gives their opinions on lynch candidates. If you'd be happy to vote for someone, say so! Personally, I'd like to vote for suki, crossfire, or HeavOnEarth. I have no read on MJ or golden. I would not like to lynch alan. Here, I clearly state the three people that I think would make good lynches. I am the second person to deem HeavOnEarth suspicious. I was not overly confident about any of the three, though, as I believe I have said before. Naturally, I don't cast my vote yet. I also explain that I will be at work and not super active until 1.5 hours before the deadline. I work from about 11AM to 6PM EDT on weekdays. If you look throughout this entire game, I'm pretty sure I haven't made any substancial posts from work. Sorry, but I'm busy. I think it makes perfect sense not to cast my vote until I get back from work. On June 15 2012 03:41 sciberbia wrote: @austinmcc Sorry but as I've said, I'm busy and won't be able to post much for the next few hours. The thread will have my full attention for the last hour and a half before the deadline, and I'll help organize the lynch. @all Crossfire has drawn suspicions of several people, and now he has finally posted both a substantial post and defense. Getting fresh opinions on him is important right now. Please share your opinion on him if you haven't already, and update your opinion if it has changed as a result of his defense. Here I explain that I'm at work and can't really post until I get back. I also ask for opinions on Crossfire. At this point, HeavOnEarth only had one vote (s0Lstice). Crossfire was under some heat from various players, and we needed opinions on him. I didn't have time to really think about his defense from work and make up my own mind, so I didn't post any of my own thoughts on it. The landslide of votes (alan,suki,miltonkram,roflwaffles) happened around 4pm or 5pm. + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 07:04 sciberbia wrote: Lynch Candidates based on everyone's stated convictions HeavOnEarth interested in lynching(8): suki, me, s0lstice, roflwaffle, milton, alan, austin, golden no comment(3): trackd00r, crossfire, MJ Many people want to lynch him and nobody is actually defending him at the moment. There is much less consensus on the other candidates (see below). Crossfire interested in lynching(5): me, austin, trackd00r, milton, heavOnEarth not convinced(4): s0lstice, golden, alan, suki no comment(2): MJ, roflwaffles Some people find him suspicious. Others remain unconvinced. I don't think it makes sense to lynch him over HeavOnEarth because some people actually don't find him suspicious. Mouldy Jeb The argument for lynching him is extreme lurking and unhelpfulness. I'm not against lynching lurkers if we don't have any good lynch candidates. But in this case we do: most people find HeavOnEarth scummy. In addition, we get little information from MJ's flip, whereas we get quite a bit from heavOnEarth. golden I haven't gone through the filter, but I just don't get the feeling that there is enough suspicion on him to warrant a lynch over HeavOnEarth. IN SUMMARY HeavOnEarth seems like the consensus lynch target. Personally, I think he has a good chance of flipping red. I'll detail my thoughts on him in a subsequent post. Overall, seems like the sensible player to lynch. @heavOnEarth It looks likely that you will be lynched today. Please post a defense and more importantly give as many reads as you can. @trackd00r, crossfire, MJ Please post your opinion on HeavOnEarth as soon as possible. It's important that everyone weighs in on the lynch candidates, especially the one that looks most likely to be lynched. I think I left work an hour early that day because I knew we'd need time before the lynch. I spent some time assembling the above post, which makes it pretty clear that HeavOnEarth is the consensus target. I asked for opinions on HeavOnEarth because you always want to hear everyone's opinion on whoever gets lynched before they flip. I also ask HeavOnEarth to give as many reads as he can. This is certainly in town's best interest. Honestly, the main way I was expecting it to help is if he flipped mafia, maybe we could get some information from his "reads". After making this post, I took some time to catch up on posts. I studied through HeavOnEarth's filter. I decided that I thought he was a good lynch, so I stated my reasoning, and voted him. IN CONCLUSION I think my D1 actions were perfectly reasonable. If I had been closely following the thread closely the whole day, I probably would have voted HeavOnEarth sooner. But I think I did a lot to contribute to getting him lynched. First of all, I did a lot to slow the bandwaggon on someone I correctly read as townie (alan). Then, I listed HeavOnEarth as one of the three people I'd like to vote for. Then when I got back from work, I really studied his filter (especially his latest posts) which convinced me he was a good lynch, so I voted him. I don't think the argument of "sciberbia was just trying not to have to bus HeavOnEarth" really makes sense. HeavOnEarth wasn't my primary lynch target. I listed three people I'd be happy lynching. Obviously, we need a majority, and not everyone can have their top pick. Once it became clear that HeavOnEarth was a consensus choice, I voted him as I said I would. It's not like HeavOnEarth was my top target all along and I was just delaying a vote on him for no reason. My plan was to have my attention drawn away from you (suki) every time?+ Show Spoiler + I really don't see the merit in that mafia plan. I've never heard of the mafia strategy to consistently find one player suspicious but never lynch them. If I were mafia, I could've just NK'd people like unforgiven, alan, and crossfire, and I really don't think I'd get lynched. It'd come down to something like me/s0Lstice/golden/miltonkram/austinmcc. Do you really see me getting lynched there? The plan of intentionally not lynching a scummy person to save them for the last day just seems kinda random and pointless. Besides, on both D2 and D4, I would have lynched you if it was all up to me and nobody else gave their opinion. On D2, I thought the cases agaisnt you (mainly mine and s0Lstice's) were quite good. I voted you. Everybody else voted trackd00r. What do you want me to have done? Shout at everyone else that we should be lynching you? I thought trackd00r also had a good chance at being the last mafia, so I switched my vote to him at the end. I had already made my case against you, and everyone else (s0Lstice included) wanted to lynch trackd00r. I don't see how my actions here are suspicious. On D3, I made a bad call on unforgiven. I liked s0Lstice's case on him. Sorry - it was just a bad read. Also, I didn't change my opinion on you just based on the NK. As I clearly stated (although you cut it out of the quote), your posting since N1 gave me a very townie feel: not giving up, continuing to scumhunt in the face of your death, etc. I've mentioned this multiple times by now. On D4, it was very clear to me that we could lynch 2 out of 3: suki, miltonkram, golden. After a LOT of thinking, I concluded that miltonkram was my surest town read. Honestly, if I had to pick only one person to lynch for the rest of the game, it would probably have been you. But that wasn't the scenario: we get to lynch 2 out of 3. I wanted to lynch you and golden. Nowhere did I say that I found golden more suspicious than suki. I just said I want to lynch golden and then suki if golden flips green. I didn't really find golden that scummy. As I said, everyone looked town to me. But miltonkram looked the most town. I don't know what was to be gained by trying to convince everyone to switch their votes to you. Now on D5, I find you most suspicious again by process of elimination. I've already detailed my strong town-read on miltonkram. I have never ever thought crossfire was mafia. And there are a few things in your filter that are suspicious, especially D1/N1. So I'm pretty confident that it's you. Accusation about manipulating NK analysis+ Show Spoiler + Again, it seems like you are drawing pretty grand conclusions about complicated mafia schemes that are kinda unnecessary. I really don't know why austinmcc died but I certainly wouldn't have NK'd him. And I didn't use his death to push trackd00r. I was pushing you until everyone else voted trackd00r. Go look at how the D2 mislynch went down. On D3, the fact that s0Lstice died wasn't like the primary point in my suspicions against unforgiven. Go reread my post. It was the last, minor point. Besides, I probably would have killed alan on D3 if I were mafia. I've kinda had the feeling ever since the trackd00r lynch that we only have a vigi and vet. Look through NMM mafia archives. We're lucky if we have a medic and a bunch of VT's. Personally, I think this is a bit of a rip-off, but that's besides the point. I would probably have killed a confirmed townie that is suspicious of me over a probable townie that is very defensive of me and would push a mislynch on unforgiven the next day. I really don't see why I would have killed s0Lstice over alan. On D4, my analysis of the NK of alan led to decent evidence in favor of miltonkram. You're saying that I NK'd alan so I had an excuse to defend miltonkram? I didn't use the NK of alan to push golden. In summary, you're saying that scum sciberbia's plan was to use NK's to push mislynches. But in reality I hardly do that at all. On D2 I push you until literally everyone else votes trackd00r and I just comment that the NK fits better with trackd00r. On D3, the NK was only a small part of my case. And on D4, the death of alan only made me think miltoknram is town. + Show Spoiler + On June 24 2012 12:42 suki wrote: Isn't it strange how we always seem to have a surefire mafia lynch, but every time we're disappointed? One of the biggest reasons we were so sure of unforgiven and golden was because the NK's didn't make sense if they weren't scum. Well, now we've reached the final stage of the game, and you know what? The lynches still don't make sense if I'm scum or if milton is scum. But sciberbia is willing to discard that to vote for 'the least townie of all the remaining townies'. I think this is quite an exaggeration. A surefire mafia lynch? I don't know about you, but the only lynch I've felt really good about was unforgiven. You can read my post before we lynch trackd00r where I clearly am not sure he is scum. Also, I don't want to speak for everyone, but I don't think any of us were that sure about golden. The NK's have been generally considered as minor, possibly reliable pieces of evidence, as they should be. You're really overexaggerating the weight we've been putting on NKs. As far as me now being willing to discard the ONE night kill that doesn't make a lot of sense if you (suki) are scum, what would you rather have me do? Vote to NL just because I don't see why any of the remaining players would have killed austinmcc? The NK of austinmcc doesn't make a lot of sense regardless of who the last scum is. Your accusation of me "flip-flopping" on miltonkram+ Show Spoiler + On June 24 2012 12:42 suki wrote: Isn't it strange how sciberbia's impression of milton flip-flopped throughout the last few days? First, he thought milton didn't look scummy, but couldn't see why he couldn't be scum. Then, he was willing to lynch me followed by milton, who he figured was the most likely to be scum after me. Then, he thinks milton is probably town and targets unforgiven. Then he puts milton as his #1 town read above crossfire When sciberbia stated that milton looked most likely to be scum after me, that was after trackd00r died (D2). Now that we've reached the endgame, he thinks that: Think of this from a scum sciberbia perspective. In the beginning he's keeping his options open to lynch Milton (by pointing out his play could possibly scummy). In the end, he wants to keep Milton on his side by saying Milton is 100% town. He's also put Crossfire as 100% town. Both Milton and Crossfire have a town read on me, but when sciberbia lays out the scenario like this, they have no choice but to reluctantly lynch me. This is really a non-point. I've been pretty consistent about miltonkram. First, I thought he didn't look scummy, but didn't see why he couldn't be scum. Yes. Both you and s0Lstice agreed with me on this. Next, I was willing to lynch you followed by miltonkram. Yes this follows directly from the previous statement. Everyone else looked more definite-town to me than miltonkram. Targetting unforgiven was, as I've said, a bad call. I thought he was mafia but he wasn't. Not really anything else to say here. I never put milton as my #1 town read above crossfire. I said, "Miltonkram is my surest town read of the three. And Crossfire is still out of the question." I don't think I've voiced suspicions on crossfire since D1. I did change my read on miltonkram a bit during D4. As I said, I spent hours reading filters and really thinking hard about miltonkram/suki/golden. This was much more time than I had spent on miltonkram before. I came up with some new really good reasons why he is probably town. Two of these reasons were based on things after my initial thoughts on him, so doesn't it make sense that my read would change? I detailed the reasoning behind my strong town-read of him today. Lastly, how does scum sciberbia benefit from hard-defending miltonkram? I really don't get this. If I was mafia, I wouldn't care which of suki/miltonkram was lynched on the last day. I'd probably just say that I find suki a bit more suspicious. Before this huge accusation of yours, everyone had me as a strong town-read. What does a scum sciberbia have to gain by trying to convince crossfire that miltonkram is town? Really doesn't make sense. The town motivation is clearly much stronger. Me voting for golden+ Show Spoiler + I've already talked about this a bit. I wanted to lynch you and golden, as I said. I never said golden was more suspicious. The order of lynching isn't really important. If I was able to convince crossfire to vote suki over miltonkram yesterday, surely I'd be able to do it today too. I really don't see what town lost by lynching golden yesterday. He was a top target of suki/miltonkram/crossfire (i think) and was #2 for me. And he was getting modkilled yesterday. To win the game (assuming suki is mafia), I have to / had to convince crossfire that suki is more suspicious than miltonkram. This remains the case D5. "Bus" on roflwaffles+ Show Spoiler + On June 24 2012 12:42 suki wrote: Regarding sciberbia's insta-bus on rofl. I bet he looked at rofl's play and knew that s0lstice and other good players would inevitably pick up on the slips. Rather than let that happen, he decided to take massive town cred for the insta-bus. Note that prior to his incriminating post on rofl, he hadn't even commented on rofl's play at all. I think it's also telling that rofl was relieved to have been shot by alan. It means if sciberbia put that plan forward to bus rofl, rofl would have happily accepted This is also quite a non-point. rofl's last two big posts of D1 were really scummy. The one where he voted in particular. The thought actually crossed my mind to suggest dropping HeavOnEarth and just to lynch roflwaffles. But I don't think that was a practical course of action. I already talked about my day D1. After the lynch, I spent a lot of time going through the massive amount of D1 posts and making notes. roflwaffles looked really scummy, so I made a giant case on him. You accuse me of not talking about rofl's play at all prior to that case. Well, he didn't look really scummy until the end of D1, as I've said. I had no reason to comment on his play before that. I'm sure there were several people I didn't comment on D1. Off the top of my head, I don't think I touched on austinmcc, s0Lstice, roflwaffles, miltonkram, MJ, or golden. IIRC, s0Lstice didn't comment on roflwaffle's play D1 either but was also confident roflwaffles was scum. I don't see how this suspicious. Also, "it's quite telling that rofl was relieved to have been shot by alan"? Uhh I really think you are stretching here. If I were mafia and thought bussing roflwaffles was the best option, I don't think I'd need his approval. you say that I was missing during N1?+ Show Spoiler + On June 24 2012 12:42 suki wrote: Interesting note. If you look at the Day 1 sequence of events, Sciberbia posts his last post 6 hours before the night ends. During those six hours is when the mods were asking for night actions to be turned in. He shows up just barely before the night ends. In other words, the reasoning that he used through the whole game about Night actions not being turned in until late during the night can also be applied to him, because he wasn't around during the time that the mods were asking for night actions. Didn't alan say I was really active during N1? So wouldn't that mean that I wouldn't have had the mods worried that scum sciberbia wouldn't submit the NK? I was following the thread from work, as usual. If I was mafia, I could've easily submitted the NK from work. It wasn't like I was completely gone. After work, I played tennis. And I only got back to my home computer half hour before the deadline, as I said in my post. I read through some cases and made a small post with a couple of tentative reads on the off-chance I was NK'd. Alright, I think I've covered everything. Sorry for the length, but not getting mislynched is pretty important, and it's pretty easy to write pages about things I know to be true. If anyone wants further explanation on anything, please ask. @suki I'd be interested to hear if your opinion on me has changed at all as a result of this post. As I've been typing this post, I've instinctively felt even more sure that suki is mafia as a result of her accusing me. I'm gonna go take a snack break and objectively think about what her accusation says about her alignment. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
But objectively, from the perspective of scum suki, here is the question: + Show Spoiler + what is more likely? (a) that miltonkram will vote sciberbia over suki (b) or that crossfire will vote miltonkram over suki Honestly (b) seems more likely to me . I was expecting scum suki to bank on crossfire not being convinced by me. And then she could either NK me and hope crossfire wouldn't change his mind, or NK crossfire and hope I WIFOM myself into voting miltonkram. I thought my defense of miltonkram was pretty good, but just yesterday crossfire was suspicious of miltonkram to the point of voting him, and still not suspicious of suki. If I had had to bet, I think I would've bet crossfire would reluctantly agree with me to lynch suki, but I'm really not sure. So does she really think miltonkram would vote me over her on the last day? Again I may be biased, but I don't think miltonkram would. So why would scum suki decide to accuse me and NK crossfire rather than accuse miltonkram and randomize the NK between me/crossfire? I guess it's possible that she judged the likeliness of (a) and (b) differently than me. I just realized something else. She could NK miltonkram tomorrow if crossfire buys into her case on me. So she really only needs to convince EITHER miltonkram OR crossfire to vote me, and she can WIFOM her way to a win. ACTUALLY, I just realized something else. If nobody buys her case on sciberbia, she can still NK me and (maybe) get crossfire to lynch miltonkram? Hmm but miltonkram surely wouldn't NK me in that situation so I don't think crossfire would buy it. Goddamn this is confusing. From the perspective of town suki, here is the question: + Show Spoiler + what is more likely: (a) sciberbia is mafia and suki can convince miltonkram/crossfire to vote him if crossfire/miltonkram dies (b) miltonkram is mafia and suki can convince crossfire/sciberbia to vote him if sciberbia/crossfire dies Well, considering that just yesterday she was deadset on lynching miltonkram, and was repeatedly saying how I am surely town, (b) seems more likely. Unless she really, really liked my (her accused scum) defense of miltonkram. (b) just seems more likely. The entire game she has been insisting I am town, but she "liked the idea of miltonkram being mafia". So I'd find this a surprising move from a townie suki as well. Overall, I think that a townie suki pulling this move is less likely than a scum suki. Read her filter front to back. Does she really think I am mafia all of a sudden? I don't think so. I think it's more likely that she is mafia and for whatever reason judged that crossfire would vote her in the end, so decided to explore other options. Now she can NK miltonkram or crossfire depending on how they respond to her case. I guess she could also still NK me, but I think crossfire would see that she has to be mafia in that case. one more thing in favor of suki being mafia+ Show Spoiler + I meant to say this yesterday: at this point the last scum benefits greatly from lynching anybody besides themself. It is typical of the final scum to throw suspicion on anyone possible. This is not true of townies who only benefit from lynching the one scum. Who has been the most bloodthirsty D4/D5? Suki has been totally down with voting miltonkram, golden, and now me. Miltonkram wasn't too sure about suki/golden on D4, and thinks me and crossfire are town. This was another thing that made me think he is town. | ||
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
I think you're irritated because you're so close to pulling off a mafia win that you can't believe I'd switch cases from Milton to you on the very last day. Here's my question to Crossfire and Milton. Do you guys want me to defend myself? If you have any questions about my playstyle and actions I will be happy to answer them. However, I don't feel obligated to answer questions from sciberbia. Second, the entire game you both have read me as town, despite the insane amount of pressure and analysing that was done on me. When has sciberbia ever been analysed? When has he ever been pressured? This is the first time, and he's really irritated by it. Here is the way I see it. Scum sciberbia only has to clear one out of two of the last remaining town after this last night kill. Now that its reached the last day, he's suddenly insanely sure that Milton is town, and suddenly insanely sure that I'm the last mafia. He posted such a great defense of Milton that I have to concede that he's right. The funny thing is that he's left me with no other option but to analyse his play. I haven't looked at sciberbia's defense of my points but I will do so shortly over breakfast. | ||
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
1. Keeping me around doesn't make much sense. You'd be better off just shooting me and having lurkers at the end of the game. 2. You didn't push mislynches, except on unforgiven. 3. scum sciberbia really doesn't benefit from hard defending milton. If it's a crapshoot between me and milton on the last day then that's the best scenario for sciberbia. On the other hand, if you hard defend milton I have no choice but to go after you. 4. lynching golden then me is a decent town plan if you think both of us have a chance to flip scum. My only issue with this plan is that I'm town. sciberbia, what am I to do then? You've singled me out as the only possible scum left, but I'm not. I've pushed hard cases on both you and milton and you've deflected both of them with ease. If you're scum, you're brilliant. If you're town, you're going to be really upset at yourself at the end of the game, because you've painted me in a corner that I can't get out of. I think I'll have to defend the accusations against me, and then try to dismantle your case against Milton. | ||
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
On June 24 2012 12:28 sciberbia wrote: This is mostly for crossfire's benefit. First of all, please reread previous cases on suki If I've learned anything this game, it's that for whatever reason, I am better at scumhunting on D1 than post-D1. I think I actually had 2 out of 3 scum on D1 and the third on N1. Here is my first case on suki: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=344270¤tpage=8#151 Then s0Lstice accused suki during N1. I think s0Lstice actually had all three mafia by N1: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=344270¤tpage=15#283 --- I already defended myself earlier in the thread. --- My case on suki during D2: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=344270¤tpage=18#358 --- Mostly a rehash of stuff s0lstice pointed out, but if there are specific points you'd like clarification on, ask away. --- Crossfire also made a post on suki D2, but I don't think you need to be reminded of your own case. I'm not going to restate all the D1 stuff. I think that's been beaten to death. I'll just talk about some other stuff since D1. Really really bad reads OK now I grant that the language of suki's filter (especially since D1) reads pretty townie. But in forum games, some people are just good at making their language seem townie. Judging by actions is usually better than judging by langauge. Let's look at what she has actually done in regards to pushing lynches: + Show Spoiler + D1: pushes alan (a townie). defends HeavOnEarth(a mafia). Only votes HeavOnEarth after it likely doesn't matter D2: pushes trackd00r hard (a townie) D3: pushes unforgiven hard (a townie) D4: pushes golden (a townie) D5: probably pushes miltonkram (a probable townie) How many times can somebody hurt town and not be mafia? It's no wonder we've mislynched 3 times in a row. We've been letting a a top suspect (suki) lead our lynches. --- Suki: I'm sorry if I pushed the wrong people. I'm town and I get things wrong. In my defense, my attacks provoke defenses or pro-town behaviour. It's unfortunate that we had so many lurkers. From a scum point of view, what would be the point in pushing all these mislynches? Wouldn't I be better off following everyone else and sort of pushing this and that person? I've been the most active scum-hunting person in the thread, and I don't think that's inherently a bad way to play. --- Everyone who has been NK'd was suspicious of suki+ Show Spoiler + NK 1: austinmcc is suspicious of suki (maybe less so than golden, but still)] NK 2: s0Lstice is quite suspicious of suki (but she could also use it to push unforgiven) NK 3: alan is suspicious of suki. Why did alan not die earlier? He used to think suki was town. NK 4: probably sciberbia --- Coincidence. Also, the NK's don't make sense. If I wanted to make my life easier I'd have killed sciberbia earlier on - look at all the pressure he's putting on me. And he's been doing this since Day 1. Don't you think if I wanted to take town leadership, I'd have made life a LOT easier on myself and just gotten rid of him? Same with austin. Doesn't make sense. Alan also was flip-flopping his read on me, as opposed to sciberbia who was convinced. Why not sciberbia instead of alan? --- Everyone else's read on suki vs miltonkram+ Show Spoiler + Crossfire, I understand you're personal read of suki has been pretty town. Maybe that'll change as you read through filters. But, if there was ever a time to listen to other people's reads, now is probably it. Here are the last thoughts of all known or assumed townies on suki: austinmcc: suspicious of suki; no comment on milton s0Lstice: suki 2nd most suspicious; milton reads town trackd00r: no real comment on either unforgiven: suki town; miltonkram mafia alan: unsure on suki; not suspicious of miltonkram golden: suki suspicious; no comment on miltonkram sciberbia: suki mafia; miltonkram town Only unforgiven finds miltonkram more suspicious. And several people are significantly more suspicious of suki than of miltonkram. --- In mafia XV, Cattavik/Vivax was targetted for lynch because he was the most active poster. He made a bad read and town jumped on him for tunneling. Of course, he turned out green. Scum have two general options at their disposal. One, stay out of the spotlight as much as possible. Two, take town leadership and direct town by looking super townie. I've done neither. --- A few changes of tone+ Show Spoiler + The tone of suki's posts have changed a bit throughout the game. This is kinda indicative of a mafia because they try to be decietful. Here are some posts: + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 12:44 suki wrote: Is it just me or is trackd00r coming off as scummy already? ... BUT WAIT! Just ONE post previous to that he says this: ... Dude. You try to take a firm stance against something, and then you do the most scummy wishy-washy-ness thing ever the very next post. You're clearly informed about mafia as you brought up the idea of a day 1 RNG lynch, and being against a no lynch is not a difficult or complicated policy to hold. I feel that such a simple logical slip only happens if you're trying to play it safe and keep your options open. ##vote trackd00r + Show Spoiler + On June 16 2012 05:50 suki wrote: Did not contradict myself. I do not think I blundered. I did not bounce around. I analysed the game and based on my judgement I focused my attention on the one person I believed was the most scum, and I didn't let off until I was convinced otherwise. The only evidence against me is from viewing my actions from a biased point of view. I've played a strong town game, and you're trying to spin it like I'm playing a strong mafia game by playing a strong town game. + Show Spoiler + On June 17 2012 11:03 suki wrote: Anyways, hum. I'm a little disappointed. Firstly, I'm disappointed that nobody's commented on my case against trackd00r. I put a lot of time into it and I don't think my points are easily dismissed. If find s0lstice's tunneling of me (and lack of comment on my defence) very strange. Maybe not suspicious, but strange. I feel that I've been upfront for this whole game. I've stated my suspicions boldly, presented my cases clearly. I've been wrong, about alan and about HeavOn (the so called 'scummy' defense of HeavOn) but that's not a scummy thing in itself. I'm being targeted because I haven't been scared of making mistakes, of calling people out, of changing my vote to who I think is the most scummy. I spend a lot of time on analysing the person I think is most suspicious rather than making shallow analysis on everyone who I think could be suspicious.. ... Neither s0lstice nor sciberbia (who both pretty much have the same case against me) have given my defence any credit or really even a response. No one except alan has really posted their in-depth thoughts on trackd00r. And trackd00r still hasn't delivered any useful posts in his own defence. I think I've gone through everything I need/want to say. + Show Spoiler + On June 17 2012 13:28 suki wrote: s0lstice, I think you did your job right and that if I really were scum, your pressure on me would be extremely effective. Don't feel bad for pushing me, that's what a good townie should do. Plus you can't be right ALL the time right? haha. I take it as a huge compliment that you think I'd be up to playing such a risky/advanced level of scum. I have the unique perspective of having a town read on everybody (more or less), including myself, leaving the only likely suspect to be trackd00r. I also feel very strongly about my case on him (hence my disappointment that nobody's really commented on it), and his 'OOPS' post just confirms my suspicions. @sciberbia I just really have had bad luck and bad reads. I have to say, it feels pretty awful to put so much effort into hunting scum, only to keep missing. I'd love to go over my thoughts behind my moves this game, but I'll do that post-game so I don't clog up the thread when we really need to focus on lynching scum. + Show Spoiler + On June 18 2012 12:56 suki wrote: My outlook on the game post-lynch: People will be taking a much closer look at me. It's to be expected, after the case that s0lstice and sciberbia brought up. I feel I pushed a good case on trackd00r and its frustrating that he wasn't able to defend himself adequately. I once again went through all the players in the game. I think I am just going to accept the hard truth that I just blow at analysis. ... In summary: I am town. That's my only defence at this point. If you believe me, then I hope you'll take a really close look at alan's case on golden. If you don't believe me, then I still hope you'll take a really close look at alan's case on golden. Going to bed soon but I'll keep up with the thread and post my thoughts. Just a little too burned out to do any sort of heavy analysis right now. + Show Spoiler + On June 18 2012 15:09 suki wrote: For those of you suspicious of me, one thing that you should note is that my play style had no fail safe in place when my reads eventually became wrong. ... I may not have been good at hunting scum, but I was good at digging out the non-committal behaviour of blues, I guess. + Show Spoiler + On June 19 2012 15:34 suki wrote: I realize that I am bouncing around now. I think it has to do with just losing all faith in my own judgement, in addition to no one's really listening to me anyways. I still want to post my reads, still want to try to contribute my thoughts when people bring up cases. I still want to believe I can help push for a victory, instead of crawling into a hole and disappearing for the rest of the game because no one will believe me. + Show Spoiler + On June 21 2012 10:08 suki wrote: This is my case against Miltonkram. Come daytime I will vote for him. I can't see sciberbia or crossfire as scum. I can't see HeavOnEarth pressuring a scum Golden the way he did. Milton is now the last and only suspect in my mind. hmm I was expecting to find some better quotes. Maybe this section isn't the best evidence. You can decide for yourself. --- No comment here. --- Clear plan for scum suki on D4+ Show Spoiler + I already talked about this a bit in my post on miltonkram. If suki is scum, I'd have expected her to have a plan for D4. I think her plan was to get miltonkram lynched by killing alan. And then kill sciberbia and WIFOM her way into getting golden lynched. AND if golden gets modkilled D4/D5, this works out brilliantly for her. If this is true, I'd have expected her to be very reluctant to back off miltonkram. And this holds true. She makes some pretty faulty analysis on the NK, insisting that it makes sense for miltonkram where it really doesn't. --- If I'm scum, I'd have a better plan than get into a 4-player scenario with 3 practically confirmed townies. You could probably see me defending unforgiven and golden, to keep them around for the final stages. Remember, if I'm scum I have the luxury of knowing who is innocent and defending them. I'm in the same corner as you sciberbia regarding NK's. You're trying to pin the NK's on me by saying they make sense, but they don't make sense for me to make them at all. --- I could post more, but I think these are the major points. Especially reread the cases on her D1/N1 actions. The alan bandwaggon, faulty trackd00r case, and defense of HeavOnEarth all look scummy. Nothing really looks scummy about miltonkram, so I really think suki is mafia. --- bolded parts are my defense. --- | ||
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