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Response to criticism of my NL idea:
+ Show Spoiler +On May 31 2012 08:40 Miltonkram wrote:
@ sciberbia
Your logic depends on us mislynching every single night. Every time we make a correct lynch, it throws off the numbers and gives the town more time to work with.
My logic does NOT depend on us mislynching in any way, shape, or form. I'm just saying we get 5 lynches either way, and that by NL'ing D1 we get the most information possible prior to each lynch. It's just math. On May 31 2012 08:40 Miltonkram wrote:
If and when the situation arises when a no lynch is beneficial, the case can and should be made. It is likely that such a situation will never occur however.
On the contrary, it is very likely when we start with an even number of players. If we get down to 4 (very likely if we never NL), we should certainly NL. I think we can all agree on that. On May 31 2012 08:40 Miltonkram wrote:
In short, no-lynch D1 is really bad, it gives us no information to work on. This applies to heist's criticism too. A day 1 NL gives us MORE information to work off for our first lynch. Think about it. If we lynch day 1, we have 48 hours worth of discussion to go on for our first lynch. If we NL day 1, we have 120 hours of discussion and a round of night actions to consider for our first lynch. And we end up with 5 lynches either way: it doesn't cost us a lynch (assuming no medic saves). I agree with heist that the results of lynches factor into future lynches. But this is irrelevant to the issue of a day 1 NL. We still have 5 lynches. We can still consider the results of a previous lynch when we are making our second lynch etc. I feel like I'm just repeating myself now. On May 31 2012 08:40 Miltonkram wrote:
your discussion of a no-lynch does not make sense to me if you really have the best interests of the town at heart.
I think your accusation of me is rather hasty. My discussion does have the best interests of town at heart. The point of the discussion was two-fold 1) Try to convince you guys of a superior line of play 2) Give people something to talk about in their first posts While I was not wildly successful in my first goal, you cannot deny that I have succeeded in the second. If you look at the thread since the daypost, the lynch vs nolynch question has certainly gotten people posting. We need posts to generate scumreads. We need scumreads to lynch scum, which is the primary goal here.
On May 31 2012 08:40 Miltonkram wrote:
As far as the rest of the town is concerned, get these discussions on policy out of the way quickly. The sooner we start scumhunting the better.
I stand by everything I've said, and I still currently feel that NL is slightly superior to lynching on day 1 (by maybe 3%). However, I'm getting the feeling that I could write a 10-page paper full of proofs and diagrams and I wouldn't convince anybody, so I'm willing to drop the subject if that's what you want. It has already generated some discussion, which was the primary goal.
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Now I've read through the thread, and I must say... I'm pleasantly surprised. There's a lot of information to work with already at this point.
The post I had the hardest time figuring out was the very first post in the thread by sciberbia:
On May 31 2012 07:20 sciberbia wrote:Good morning all! I'm really looking forward to this game. I've been thinking about what to put in my first post, and I decided on the following sections. I wrote up this post in the hour since my role PM, if you're wondering how I typed so fast. Please excuse the length: this is my first post and I just wanted to get some info in my filter as well as introduce myself to everyone and start some discussion. about me + Show Spoiler +
I absolutely love playing mafia irl, and I recently played my first forum game: Newbie Mini XIV. I enjoyed the game, and I'm looking forward to playing again with Golden, s0sltice, and Miltonkram. I encourage you all to skim our filters from that game so you have a basis for comparison. Only Miltonkram was mafia.
what you can expect from me + Show Spoiler +
Mainly because I love playing so much, I will consistently be checking and reading the thread and I'll probably be one of the more active posters. I'll maintain my own list of scumreads and make public cases against my top targets. I'll also help in any way I can to organize lynches when deadlines roll around.
what i ask of you guys + Show Spoiler +
1) make reading the thread a priority
2) periodically post your opinions and contribute to the discussion
3) try really hard to be online in the hours before a deadline. We need to organize majority lynches and it's not easy if a lot of people are offline.
to lynch or not to lynch? + Show Spoiler +
Setup A: 1 roleblocker, 2 goons, 1 cop, 1 medic, 7 VT's
Setup B: 1 roleblocker, 2 goons, 9 VT's
Setup C: 3 goons, 1 medic, 8 VT's
Setup D: 3 goons, 1 cop, 8 VT's
I think that there is actually a strong case for not lynching on day 1 in this game. In the setups without a medic, namely B and D, I am pretty sure that not lynching on day 1 is strictly optimal. I think that lynch vs NL is a wash for setup C, and I'm undecided about setup A - that one's pretty complicated.
If anybody would like to hear more of my reasoning, just ask and I'll be happy to provide.
Fun fact: Depending on how wisely we spend our NL, we have between 13% and 17% chance of winning setup B assuming random lynches. So we need some really solid scumreads regardless of how strategically we play.
what I think we should focus on right now + Show Spoiler +
The most important thing for us to do is find scum. However, it seems foolish to scumhunt before the majority of players have even looked at the thread. So I think our biggest goal for the first 12 hours or so is to generate discussion. Then, we turn our attention to scumhunting. Here are two things that everyone can comment on:
1) Lynch or NL?
2) Should we lynch inactive players or let them get replaced?
Will all inactive players be replaced or is there a possibility that they just die? If a blue inactive player is modkilled, will their role be transferred to someone else? What if they are mafia?
At first glance, I thought sciberbia was an overeager townie trying to direct the game to his liking. It seemed unlikely for a Mafia (especially a beginner Mafia) to put himself into the spotlight right away. However, when I looked closer at the content of this post, I wasn't so sure anymore. Basically the "meat" of this post was speculation about the setup and suggesting a no-lynch. A no-lynch would just give Mafia more breathing room and a free pass to do whatever they want for today. What's more, Mafia would then shoot the most dangerous player in their eyes, and the lurkers / distractive players would of course live on. This would be an ideal situation for Mafia to start day 2 with: a good town player dead, but every suspicious/lurking player still alive. The pool of lynch candidates would be bigger in comparison, and Mafia could hide much easier.
So, was sciberbia pushing Mafia agenda all along? For a moment I thought so, but looking also at his later posts, I don't think a beginner Mafia could fake such complicated theories and thought processes. Maybe if he was a veteran, but even then, why would he risk himself in the first place? Either he's a great actor or genuinely wanting to help town. Right now I'm leaning on town, especially since this is a newbie game. Occam's razor: the simplest explanation is usually the right one.
Another player I noticed was Cattivik. So far he has been analyzing the game, posting reads, calling out lurkers - all in all, playing for town's win condition. I didn't like him giving sciberbia a free pass just because he was the "first to post", but disregarding that, his filter looks good.
Miltonkram, why did you vote for sciberbia so fast? Do you really want to lynch him or is it just a throwaway vote? I'm not comfortable with lynching him at all, especially since most people haven't even posted anything.
s0Lstice, you have been wishy-washy and cautious so far. Take a hard stance on something or you'll end up as a lynch candidate sooner or later.
Suki, unforgiven_ve, Superouman, Eishi_Ki: start posting as soon as possible. Every moment spent lurking is a victory for Mafia.
I'm going to be offline for a while; start posting about your Mafia reads, especially s0Lstice and those who have yet to post.
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@Cattivik
Your posting reads so early, with not alot of actual content to date. Early days yet, though remember i'm watching you.
Miltonkram what a great post before work. I agree with all points you've said and want anyone who want's to discuss policy to just read that post. I slightly agree with your position on sciberbia as he is promoting policy discussion about no-lynch, however i agree that mafia first post is improbable. My main suspicion lies with Cattivik, though once sciberbia posts some responses to your accusation i will consider a vote on him.
##FOS: Cattivik
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@Xatalos. I think that Miltonkrams vote is too pressure a better explanation of his post. I don't suspect a bandwagon, rather just get the ball rolling and hold sciberbia accountable. no lynch d1 is a strange push so early and i'd like to hear his rebuttal to the vote before casting my own.
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@Sciberbia. just saw your rebuttal. gonna read over lunch and write a response after work.
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Let's have a look at Cattivik.
Your reasoning makes sense, sciberbia, it also allows to choose a lynch with more information available, however returning less information in the beginning.
I would still go for the lynch. At least to get rid of pesky lurkers and inactives, in case there's noone stinking of scum already.
Look at this beginning statement. He agrees with Sciberbia's plan, but decides to support the complete opposite? CONTRADICTION. To me, this looks like he's going with the popular opinion (afraid to rock the boat) while simultaneously seeming to offer him support and defense. Either you agree or you don't.
Show nested quote +On May 31 2012 07:59 Miltonkram wrote:
With all that said, sciberbia has awakened my suspicions. He spends a lot of time with his first post promoting a no lynch. Notice that he weakly pushes his assumption that a no-lynch might be optimal so that he can back down from that assumption later without too much fuss. I think he knows that lynching is the best play, but he wants to divide town into discussing policy instead of actively scumhunting. Thoughts town? Sciberbia is the most active poster so far, also he's not promoting a NL, he's questioning day1 lynch. Whatever, I'm pretty sure he's clean, no mafia would go for the first post in a newbie game. That said, I'm pretty sure Miltonkram is one of us aswell, although I think he makes a mistake pointing the finger at one of the most active in here. O.Golden_ne posted nicely already aswell. As for solstice, i'm not sure. His first post reflect a certain indecision whispering: 'Do whatever you want, I'm in for it.' Then he points the finger at the most active player. I won't say you're scummy, but you aren't clean yet in my book as opposed to the others.Why do you question our most active townie. Ange777's post makes him look like he's bandwagoning if you look at the majority of the pro-lynch responses before.A pretty thin post. Still, all of those don't stink scummy until we get information from people who didn't post already.
He seems to really trust Sciberbia based solely on his activity and the notion that "first post can't be mafia" (I mentioned this before). His further reasoning: "Sciberbia is not promoting a NL, he's questioning a day 1 lynch". No. Sciberbia is definitely promoting a NL. It's been obvious since his reasoning. He attempts to remove heat from Sciberbia, over promoting his townie-ness and attacking others who place suspicion on him. He tries to deflect all opposition from Sciberbia, which at this point, is frankly strange. (look at his analysis on Solstice and Miltonkram).
He goes out of his way to defend him and his plan while being careful not stick his neck out by staying with the town majority.
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Oh hmm seems I'm not the only one suspicious of Cattivik.
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On May 31 2012 11:49 O.Golden_ne wrote:
@Xatalos. I think that Miltonkrams vote is too pressure a better explanation of his post. I don't suspect a bandwagon, rather just get the ball rolling and hold sciberbia accountable. no lynch d1 is a strange push so early and i'd like to hear his rebuttal to the vote before casting my own.
Even if it's a vote to pressure the explanation, I still find it a very confusing move to make, simply because of how early it is in the game. Many players haven't even made their first posts yet, let alone respond to sciberbia, so I don't think it was necessary to 'pressure' an explanation, simply because sciberbia gave no indication that he wouldn't further support his claims.
Simply voting to 'pressure' an explanation seems too flimsy - he could have simply asked for one and saved his pressure vote for later on if he needed it.
Rather, it feels like he has a distinct purpose in throwing out a vote that early, as if to say 'hey, I'm a townie because I'm not afraid to take bold actions'.
Let's say sciberbia is lynched on day 1 and turns out to be scum. Milton gains credibility for making a good read, and for being the first one to make it. On the other hand, if sciberbia is lynched and turns out to be town, Milton can hide behind the 'pressure vote' reasoning, and claim that it was too early to really know for sure when he made the vote.
And then there's the possibility that sciberbia isn't lynched at all, in which case his vote ends up making no real difference - except that he still gains some townie credibility for being bold enough to take action.
I'm leaning towards Milton being town, simply because it would take a pretty ballsy mafia to make such a move so early on, but between sciberbia and Milton, Milton is the more suspicious to me at the moment. Although I don't agree with a Day 1 NL, I find that sciberbia's motives for pushing of a Day 1 NL are sincere and at the very least is generating discussion (which is good for the town regardless), whereas Milton's vote is just confusing.
@Miltonkram
I'd like a clear explanation of why you felt it was so important to vote for sciberbia this early in the game.
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Oh wait, this is kind of important to my reasoning.
[b]Are you allowed to change your vote after you make it?[/]
I dont see any explicit answer in the rules. I assume you can't since we're not able to edit our posts, but just to make sure...
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You CAN change your vote. You aren't allowed to edit posts, but you can change your vote in new ones.
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Sorry for delaying, I was washing the blood off me knife. Skinning a pig can be tiring work....
Anyway, so far what I've got is that Cattivik seems the most likely candidate for scum (overuses collectives such as 'us' and 'we') and doesn't provide any evidence for initially supporting Scib and then saying he wants to LD1 anyway.
However, I'm also cautious of Milton. Sciberbia seems like the obvious guy who is going against the grain here and I feel that was jumped on at the first available opportunity. Promoting Townies to be active for more information helps everyone, not just the Townies but his post was tendered towards the Townies which I feel may be a guise.
Needz moar infos
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Sup people, reporting in. I like the discussion about the NL on day 1, having played mafia 13 and having a lot of lurkers got me thinking about using day 1 lynch and calling out lurkers is the best for the town, especially those lurkers who goes super active the last hours of the day, we have to keep an eye on them.
On May 31 2012 07:31 O.Golden_ne wrote:
I disagree sciberbia, i've learnt from the past that it's stupid too not lynch day one. You should realise that yourself with the last games fiasco with Mufaa being AFK all. I'm strongly against not lynching, either we knock a lurker or we knock someone who appears scummy and see how they flip. Mafia is a game of information, and with no information on day 2 we loss. Standard stuff. I understand you don't want to hit blue again D1 like last game, but its the responsibility of the blue role to defend himself from a mislynch rather than town being to scared to lynch for hitting blue.
agree 100%
1. DO NOT claim you are a vanilla townie. We won't believe you AND you should be glad to die in place of a blue. We don't want to limit the pool of possible blues.
2. Attention DT (if we have one) - Let's say you get a lucky check on scum. Do not reveal yourself day 2. Do not come screaming into the thread with your pants still at your feet. You are not guaranteed a medic. Breadcrumb your result. Look at their behavior and create an accusation. Anything is better than a reveal.
STRONGLY AGREE on this, blue people, dont roleclaim instantly, but dont put yourself in the radar, you SHOULD roleclaim as last resource i think, and give proof for such claim of course.
Also, i have a reccomendation, please people, dont use PAST games as a guide, people change their way of play everytime, the last (and only) game i played, town got fucked (in part) thanks to this...i was mafia, lurking, bad town play and bad reads based on past games granted us the victory, only 1 mafia died thanks to a very lucky shot.
Keep in touch, i'll try to do my best
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ebwop: oh, i forgot to tell you, english is not my native language, so if someone doesnt understand what im saying please ask, i know sometimes is a bit hard to try to understand my posts, but im gonna gladly help. Sometimes is hard for me to do LONG post, but i will try to practice here, so if my post count is low i'll try to make it worth it.
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Try not to bandwagon with a simple "I agree with ___". We want to limit our lynch candidates. The voting patterns of Day 1 may end up leading us to an excellent mafia candidate day 3 or later. If we have people voting all over the place, the usefulness of the day 1 lynch becomes diluted. That's not say don't be aggressive. Don't be afraid to poke the bear right in the eye if you feel good about an accusation.
Sorry, i missed this, im REALLY against bandwagons, specially at the last hours of the day, i think on day 1 we dont have much information to work on, but we need to have our eyes open for a mafia slip, yes, lets pressure people, if they evade/lurk/start attacking other people whitout a real reason, then thats our day 1 candidate.
Also, i like to save my vote to the last hours of the day, mafia is always much more active at day last hours just to see if they can change the decision or who is going to die.
If someone wants to be "town leader" please take all this in account, im all in for some kind of town guidance and not a FFA f**kfest.
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Yeah just a note on my activity times, I live in Korea so 7am KST actually 7am (whodathunk) and I gotta work, so activity time before the deadline will be minimal I'm afraid (or maybe it's a good thing, hmm)
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On May 31 2012 12:43 suki wrote:
Oh wait, this is kind of important to my reasoning.
Are you allowed to change your vote after you make it?[/]
I dont see any explicit answer in the rules. I assume you can't since we're not able to edit our posts, but just to make sure...
[b]Yes you are allowed to change your vote as many times as you wish. Use ##unvote before any new votes to make out lives easier though.
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@ sciberbia
I ran through the math and you are correct that we get 5 lynches. We only get 3 if we hit town every time. If there comes a time when we hit MYLO (mislynch and lose) then I could see NLing to get better odds. NLing any time before that reduces the chance that our (possible) medic is actually useful to us. I still stand by the fact that no-lynching D1 is a really bad play, but if we hit MYLO I won't automatically be against it. I see now what you were saying.
Since you have pointed out the flaws in my logic... and math, I will hereby
##UnVote: sciberbia
Apologies.
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On May 31 2012 13:18 Eishi_Ki wrote:
Sorry for delaying, I was washing the blood off me knife. Skinning a pig can be tiring work....
Anyway, so far what I've got is that Cattivik seems the most likely candidate for scum (overuses collectives such as 'us' and 'we') and doesn't provide any evidence for initially supporting Scib and then saying he wants to LD1 anyway.
However, I'm also cautious of Milton. Sciberbia seems like the obvious guy who is going against the grain here and I feel that was jumped on at the first available opportunity. Promoting Townies to be active for more information helps everyone, not just the Townies but his post was tendered towards the Townies which I feel may be a guise.
Needz moar infos
I agree with needing more information. And by no means should you blindly follow any accusations. I take it you agree with me on Cattivik but can you clarify your first point about the overuse of the "collective". How exactly is this a scumtell?
I'd like some further responses, especially, especially from you, Cattivik. Overall, it's looking as if we aren't going to be plagued by inactivity and lurking although I would prod Superouman and Ange77 to post more and be active.
@Sciberbia thanks for the discussion generator, but I'm sure it's apparent that the town majority heavily favors a Day 1 lynch and we should proceed to do so. So enough about policy, I'm curious as to your your thoughts on the other players and suspicions.
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EBWOP: Oh, and for being dumb as a brick. I apologize for that too 
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On May 31 2012 16:33 heist wrote:Show nested quote +On May 31 2012 13:18 Eishi_Ki wrote:
Sorry for delaying, I was washing the blood off me knife. Skinning a pig can be tiring work....
Anyway, so far what I've got is that Cattivik seems the most likely candidate for scum (overuses collectives such as 'us' and 'we') and doesn't provide any evidence for initially supporting Scib and then saying he wants to LD1 anyway.
However, I'm also cautious of Milton. Sciberbia seems like the obvious guy who is going against the grain here and I feel that was jumped on at the first available opportunity. Promoting Townies to be active for more information helps everyone, not just the Townies but his post was tendered towards the Townies which I feel may be a guise.
Needz moar infos I agree with needing more information. And by no means should you blindly follow any accusations. I take it you agree with me on Cattivik but can you clarify your first point about the overuse of the "collective". How exactly is this a scumtell? I'd like some further responses, especially, especially from you, Cattivik. Overall, it's looking as if we aren't going to be plagued by inactivity and lurking although I would prod Superouman and Ange77 to post more and be active. @ Sciberbia thanks for the discussion generator, but I'm sure it's apparent that the town majority heavily favors a Day 1 lynch and we should proceed to do so. So enough about policy, I'm curious as to your your thoughts on the other players and suspicions.
Just the use of 'we' and 'us' to refer to the townsfolk. Similar to Hollywood'ing in poker, just trying to sell it a bit too much. It caught my eye is all.
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EPT
