Mafia is an educated guessing game of epic proportions. The objective of the game is to lynch or kill all mafia members before they outnumber the rest of the town. It's much like a game of poker because mafia members are also part of the town during the day and may manipulate the vote to their liking. If the mafia at any time outnumber or equal the townspeople, they win. The town's goal is to lynch all the members of the mafia.
The game is typically very active, so the thread will get big quickly. However, it is essential to read the thread to play the game. If you do not have the time or patience to read the whole thread, do not play. I will not compensate for ignorance.
Rules:
Cheating: Cheating includes (but is not limited to): 1. Posting after death. You may have one polite goodbye post, but it may not contain any potentially game-changing information. 2. Ruining the game by doing something like hand out your mafia's member list to the town. 3. Logging on to someone else's account to get their role or looking over someone's shoulder to get their role. 4. Comparing role PM times to determine roles. 5. Posting screenshots of your inbox. 6. Posting or sharing any PM you receive from a host. 7. Getting yourself modkilled to help your team. Your non-majority-decided death may not be used as a bargaining chip. 8. Signing up more than once using smurf accounts. 9. Betting items outside of the game in exchange for in-game benefits. 10. Sharing accounts with other players. Only you may post on your account. 11. Breadcrumbing the specific phrasing of your role PM. Do not compare the phrasing in your role PM to prove your alignment. You can claim the abilities you have, but you can't use the specific phrasing of your role PM
Cheating is not tolerated here. The punishment will be severe.
Posting:
Mod Font: This is mod font. It is reserved for moderators. Please do not use it.
Question Font: This is question font. Use it to ask the moderators questions about the rules. Please do us a favor and read the rules before you ask anything.
Activity: You must post in this thread once per day/night cycle and vote every day while you are alive. If you fail to do so, you will be modkilled.
Smurfs: Are not allowed, if I catch you trying to smurf in my game (and I will), you can expect harsh retaliation. This is a newbie game, don't try to take advantage of it.
Spam: Spam is not tolerated, nor is any off-topic material. Do not discuss Proleague here. Do not talk about Starcraft II here. Play Mafia here.
Editing: Editing is not allowed for any reason. Editing will result in a warning. After that, you will be modkilled. This is the one part of the site where it is okay to be double posting, even triple-posting. While I ask for everybody to post as concisely as possible, post again if you have to edit anything.
Inappropriate posts: If you want to post something insulting or inappropriate and know the TL mods would have a problem with it elsewhere, don't post it here. If you do, a host will warn you or modkill you and request that you be banned from future games. The hosts have the final say on what is inappropriate. If you do not like how someone is talking to you, please PM a host, Flamewheel, or Mig before involving the TL staff. If you are unsatisfied with how the situation is resolved, then you can appeal to the TL staff normally. I have zero tolerance for flaming.
Reporting posts: The report button is a nice feature for regular TL, but not for this forum. We prefer to deal with things in house if possible to avoid confusion among the TL staff. If you have a problem with how someone is posting, talk to the host, co-host, Flamewheel, or Mig before using your report button. Please do not use your report button for anything other than inappropriate posts which you feel are not being dealt with adequately.
Ban discussions: Please wait until this game is over to talk about modkills and bans resulting from this game.
Play to win. This means you play your best to help your team win while you are alive and in the game. However, this does not mean that you should try to win by being a jerk to the other players so they all want to quit playing.
This also means that you cannot leave the game without a good reason without a ban. These situations will be dealt with on a case by case basis. PM your host if you need to leave the game.
You have been warned.
Out of thread communication:
It is common for mafia (and town circles if PMs are allowed) to use a medium outside of TL such as QuickTopics or IRC to communicate during the game. Please be mindful that other players may be more tech savvy than you and they may attempt impersonate members of your team or attempt to infiltrate your chat. You use these media at your own risk.
Voting rules:
1. Voting is done in this thread. Please keep votes there, and only vote there. Do not PM me your vote. 2. Please vote in the following format: ##Vote: GMarshal. Votes not done in the correct fashion will not be counted. I will update vote counts whenever I get the chance. 3. No conditional voting. 4. You may vote for yourself. You may not vote for anyone dead or outside the game. 5. This game uses Extended Majority Lynch. That is, at the deadline the player with a majority of votes is lynched (majority = 1/2 the remaining players, rounded down + 1), if no one has a majority then no lynch will take place. 6. Voting is mandatory. You may NOT abstain. You MAY vote for a no lynch by posting ##Vote: No Lynch
Signups:
This game is open newbies only, that is, you must have played three or fewer game on TL.
Game-specific rules:
Modkills: This game follows the TL Mafia Ban List. If you are modkilled, your punishment will go beyond being eliminated from this game. Please refer to it for questions about your punishment. If you want to use this game to sit out your ban, please PM Flamewheel or post in the Ban List.
Replacements This game uses replacements. Replacements will be made in the game until Night 3. If a player is modkilled during the designated time, then they will be replaced by a player on the replacement list, assuming one is available, if no-one is available to replace, they will just be modkilled.
Do not request replacement without a good reason, or you may be banned for inactivity. PM me to discuss
Clues: There are NO clues.
PMs PMs are NOT allowed in this game.
Time Cycle: This game will follow a 24 hour night/48 hour day cycle. In case I am not able to post around deadline, any votes after the 48 hour mark will not count and the game will be put on halt until the night post is up. Currently the deadline is 03:00 GMT (+00:00), but that is subject to change. Actions/votes will be accepted up to but not including the posted time, but not after. Credits: Thanks to anyone who has ever hosted a game. This list grows ever longer. Thanks to everyone who helped balance this game.
If you have not read all the rules, go back and do so. I will not compensate for ignorance!
This is a semi-open setup, that is, exact role counts will not be known, but the possible roles will be known. All roles presented here are not necessarily in the game, but no roles not included here are present.
Town Roles
Town Wincondition- The town wins when there are no mafia left in the game
Vanilla Townie - You are just an ordinary citizen of the town of Liquidia, you are terrified of the mafia, and must strive to weed them out before the exterminate you and your fellow citizens. Every day you may vote for who you want to see lynched. Your wits and your votes will carry the town to glorious victory or shameful defeat.
Miller- You are just an ordinary citizen of the town of Liquidia, well, almost ordinary, unbeknownst to you, you sleep walk, and often end up visiting the graveyard and other suspicious locations, for that reason, you return Mafia to detectives who choose to check you. Millers are not informed that they are millers, rather they are given regular vanilla townie PMs.
Detective - You are a incredible sleuth, using your keen powers of deduction and the awesome astral charts from the seer's academy, you have the ability to inspect a player every night. You will find out if they are Town or Mafia. You are guaranteed to be sane, but beware of millers, framers and the godfather.
Medic - You are a recent medical school graduate, still struggling to pay the bills. Fortunately you have found employment here in Liquidia. Every night, you may choose to visit a player for a check up, if they would be hit that night, you manage to save them from the first kill aimed at them. Neither you nor your target will be notified of a successful protection.
Veteran - You are a survivor of the massacre of SNMMVI! The skills learned in that bitter struggle have taught you how to survive in even the harshest of situations, giving you an extra night life. That is, it takes two kill points to kill you. You will be notified if you get hit, and the medic protection absorbs hits before your extra life does.
Vigilante - You are an armed and dangerous fellow! You have secured a gun and are going to use it to take justice into your own hands. During any night of the game you may choose to fire at a player, this works exactly like a mafia hit. If your shot stacks with a mafia kill or another vigilante, it will not be refunded, if you are roleblocked, you will not lose your shot, even if you intended to fire that night.
Mafia Roles
Mafia Win condition- The mafia wins when they equal or outnumber the remaining townies or nothing can keep that from happening.
Mafia Powers - (all mafia have these, unless specifically stated otherwise) All mafia may vote, as ordinary citizens of liquidia. All mafia may communicate with each other outside the thread, by any means they wish, and know who the other mafia are. As a group, the mafia team have kp equal one, each night, which they may use however they want.
Mafia Goon- One of the newest recruits to the mafia, you are here to visit vengeance on the town. You have no special powers outside the regular mafia powers. Now destroy these fledgling fools, make them see the power of the mafia!
Mafia Roleblocker - An expert in the use of the terrible drug Nocando, in addition to the usual mafia powers, you can choose to visit a player each night and drug them, keeping them from performing any night actions. Regardless of their role, they will be notified that they were knocked out in the morning.
Mafia Framer - An ex-detective, you know exactly what those schmucks look for when investigating people. In addition to the normal mafia powers, you may choose to frame a player each night, making them return the opposite of what they should to detectives, that is a framed mafia goon returns Town and a framed Vanilla Townie returns Mafia
Mafia Godfather - The regional leader of the mafia, you know exactly what it takes to look innocent. In addition to the normal mafia powers, you return Town to any detective that investigates you.
Mafia Rolecop - An astrologist and soothslayer turned to crime, in addition to the usual mafia powers, you may investigate a player each night and find out their role.
Additionally, the mafia will receive copies of the Vanilla Townie PM and of each blue role, in order to prevent things like PM based closed ciphers.
1.) Mementoss- a Vanilla Townie - Endgamed 2.) Seviro - a Vanilla Townie - Lynched day 2 3.) Artanis[Xp]- a Vigilante - Murdered Night 3 4.) sc2system - a Vanilla Townie - Murdered Night 1 5.) virtu - a Miller - Modkilled Day 4 6.) Nova_Terra - a Mafia Godfather - Wins in the Endgame 7.) michaelthe - a Mafia Goon - Lynched day 3 8.) Rise Of Fenix - a Vanilla Townie - Lynched day 1 9.) Gossemerr - a Vanilla Townie - Murdered Night 2 10.) Ninja4ever. replaced by Janaan - a Mafia Goon - Wins in the Endgame 11.) BlueyD- a Vanilla Townie - Endgamed 12.) froggynoddy - a Vanilla Townie - Murdered Night 1
1.) Its already in the rules, but remember, no editing. I'd rather not modkill for this 2.) Behave as gentlemen (or ladies), things get heated here, but personal attacks are unacceptable, I *will* hold you to the same standards I would anywhere else on teamliquid. 3.) If there is an issue, or you don't understand something, or you think your brilliant plan may be against the spirit of the rules, PM me or DoYouHas. There is no shame in asking. 4.) Don't talk about the game outside the game. Sometimes it can be tempting to discuss it in IRC with a friend, or someone who isn't playing, unless its a private conversation with someone you KNOW isn't in the game, its not a good idea. Getting advice from more experienced players is fine though, just let me know who you are going to for coaching. 5.) Make sure to have read the rules, ignorance is no excuse. 6.) This is a game, have fun, and don't carry grudges. 7.) Have fun, seriously.
Coaches prplhz has agreed to coach this game, bug him with any questions about how to play that you may have. Remember that coaches will not play *for* you, but they are useful to talk to.
Almost SNMM VIII again with different roles and hopefully less afk ^-^
On March 21 2012 01:39 sc2system wrote: /in
First Time take it easy on me <3
Welcome to TL mafia, as long as you put some effort into reading the thread and posting, and vote every day cycle. Nobody will hate you AFKer's ruin newbie games.
On March 21 2012 00:06 Artanis[Xp] wrote: I haven't played on TL mafia for a year if not more, I may have played 3 games but I'm not sure, I don't think so. Can I play? If so, /in.
You were the bodyguard in insane mafia!
And yes, you have around 3 games played, but its been so long that I'll let you play
On March 21 2012 04:22 Nova_Terra wrote: I'm not in yet?
That's because I hate you. Or because I accidentally deleted your name when I edited in the filters. One or the other
On March 21 2012 04:49 Rise Of Fenix wrote: /in please
On March 20 2012 23:22 GMarshal wrote: Smurfs: Are not allowed, if I catch you trying to smurf in my game (and I will), you can expect harsh retaliation. This is a newbie game, don't try to take advantage of it.
On March 21 2012 00:06 Artanis[Xp] wrote: I haven't played on TL mafia for a year if not more, I may have played 3 games but I'm not sure, I don't think so. Can I play? If so, /in.
You were the bodyguard in insane mafia!
And yes, you have around 3 games played, but its been so long that I'll let you play
Nah, I was the person that made Insane Mafia . But thanks, yay!
On March 21 2012 00:06 Artanis[Xp] wrote: I haven't played on TL mafia for a year if not more, I may have played 3 games but I'm not sure, I don't think so. Can I play? If so, /in.
You were the bodyguard in insane mafia!
And yes, you have around 3 games played, but its been so long that I'll let you play
Nah, I was the person that made Insane Mafia . But thanks, yay!
Something insane mafia related, I'm too lazy to look it up :-P
On March 21 2012 06:58 Rise Of Fenix wrote: I made my account from his phone. He is a friend. I play mafia Here:http://www.urealms.com/forumdisplay.php?22-Foolishness-and-Fun
On March 22 2012 05:38 Janaan wrote: If no one else joins before the game would start, then you can switch me from replacement to player so we can start.
Works for me, in that case expect roles out at 02:00 GMT (+00:00)
Yep, roles get sent out at the same time as Day 1 begins, that way no one can get a head start on the game. This should be a good newbie game, got a decent mix of complete newbie and people with a couple games under their belt!
Additionally, the mafia will receive copies of the Vanilla Townie PM and of each blue role, in order to prevent things like PM based closed ciphers
How much help can he give? Can we ask whether our logic is sound? e.g. this post + that reaction = scummy? How the post might appear? e.g. This is too long and not enough content therefore scummy
Coaches prplhz has agreed to coach this game, bug him with any questions about how to play that you may have. Remember that coaches will not play *for* you, but they are useful to talk to.
Additionally, the mafia will receive copies of the Vanilla Townie PM and of each blue role, in order to prevent things like PM based closed ciphers
How much help can he give? Can we ask whether our logic is sound? e.g. this post + that reaction = scummy? How the post might appear? e.g. This is too long and not enough content therefore scummy
How much your coach helps depends largely on the person coaching you. They all know not to cross the line of giving you their reads or playing vicariously through you. They can/will definitely help you with logic or almost anything related to just you. Your posts, your style, your logic, your interactions. Their goal is to make you a better player in the game, not to make the game easier for you.
This was a nightmare. There was nothing else it could be. Or at least that's what GMarshal's panicked brain insisted on repeating. The day had started off normally enough, in the high security labs of ChronoCorp. The usual scramble to make sure forms were signed, more data gathered from the rift, and of course verifying that the time anchor was firmly attached. "And it was", GMarshal whispered to himself, "It really was". Then the usually tedium of running numbers, measuring every last bit of radiation coming from the anomaly. After all, it is, "was" GMarshal corrected himself, the only time rift known to man, if there was a key to looking into the past, it was in those tiny blips of data.
The first sign that something was wrong was a huge surge in the gamma reader. While the team scrambled to fix that, the anchor, the time anchor, an artifact older than time itself, the thing that kept the lab safe where it was, snapped, audibly. Then things went to hell. The sensors exploded with data, the watches went haywire, the team panicked and sprung into frenezied, if useless efforts to ascertain what was happening. It was a junior scientist, a certain prlplhz, who first caught on. "The window, he yelled, THE WINDOW", and so the scientists found themselves staring out the window, at an impossible sight, they saw a string of scientists walking backwards out of the lab, construction crews disassembling buildings at impossible speeds, then backing off into their ships and taking off.
"Mother of God..." someone muttered, breaking the shocked silence. "We are falling through time...", This realization was accompanied by varied looks of bewilderment, but before anyone else could speak, they were interrupted by a maniacal laugh. "Indeed! We will travel to the beginning of time and become GODS!" DoYouHas paused, looked pensive, and then said "well, you won't." then paused again "but my comrades will!" he added consolingly, before moving towards the gathered scientists with a look of determination and pity, as he pulled what was very obviously a detonator from his pocket.
The crowd seemed to freeze in terror and bewilderment, except for one man, impetus and foolishness possessing him GMarshal charged towards DoYouHas, his face a mask of certainty and rage. The explosion shook the very foundations of the building. The only other casualty was prlplhz who caught an unfortunate piece of shrapnel through the head.
The scientists look at each other. If they are to have any chance at fixing this mess they need to find the saboteurs responsible for this crisis and make sure they could sabotage no more, then fix the anchor before the lab slams into the beginning of time and destroys existence itself. With out any more dillydallying they set to their tasks. The fate of everything is on their shoulders.
GMarshal the Director of Special Projects has been blown to bits prlplhz the junior scientist has died to sharp metal bits. DoYouHas the Anarchist Bomber has spread himself too thin (over the walls)
If you didn't get a role PM its because it fell through time, PM me to fix the mistake
it is now day 1. You have roughly 48 hours to find someone to lynch. Remember, format votes correctly, don't edit, behave as gentlemen (or ladies) and most importantly, have fun.
The deadline is 03:00 GMT (+00:00), that means that votes at 11:59:59 will be counted, but votes at and after 12:00:00 will not.
Hey, I'm BlueyD and this is my first game of Mafia ever, but I've read a few here on TL and I think I have a good feel for how this works.
This said, it's been 3 hours since we've gotten our roles, and no one has spoken yet. I'd like to see everyone at least post to confirm activity. Whoever doesn't start posting is already suspicious at worst, and useless at best. We don't want any mafia hiding among the lurkers. I'll personally support lynching an inactive unless something pretty big happens.
well, you posting first probably eludes you being mafia and drawing unneeded attention to yourself. That is not to say that this could be a fake out, but I am inclined to believe you are town. Who else would like to speak up?
I feel that we should lynch someone on day 1 for sure, either someone slightly suspicious or a lurker. I would prefer a lynch of someone slightly suspicious, (which may be a result of last game having so many town lurkers) but nevertheless we cannot let scum blend in, so a lurker vote is ok too.
On March 22 2012 13:43 BlueyD wrote: Hey, I'm BlueyD and this is my first game of Mafia ever, but I've read a few here on TL and I think I have a good feel for how this works.
This said, it's been 3 hours since we've gotten our roles, and no one has spoken yet. I'd like to see everyone at least post to confirm activity. Whoever doesn't start posting is already suspicious at worst, and useless at best. We don't want any mafia hiding among the lurkers. I'll personally support lynching an inactive unless something pretty big happens.
Good luck to all, and may the most able survive!
Three hours is not cause for alarm at the start of the game ha.
Lets get this rolling.
##Vote: Mementoss
Only because you outplayed us so hard last game. Prove you are town this time!
Just from looking at the post above, this game is bound to be more exciting than the last. Heh, and people had problems with my early FoS. Cmon everybody. we cant have a game without the people
My name is Filip in real life. I love playing games like this becuase I find it funny how you can counter every logic and you can confuse people. I play warewolf which is a card copy of mafia but I think that I will like this more becuase you can see exacly what who wrote.
Please dont accuse me becuase of my bad grammar or spelling because english is not my mother-tounge.
I might not be very acctive but I will resopond 2 times a day around luch time and in the evening (GTM time).
Morning Europeans, Hi everyone else! Nice to see this started before MLG weekend, will be watching plenty of MLG so should have time to be active. First game here so I imagine it will be a huge learning curve, will give it my all though.
Pushing for a really active talkative discussion based town, get rid of the lurkers and people who aren't contributing to make it harder for mafia to hide and to force them into posting (and making mistakes).
If you are on this list, just post up and be talkative when you can. The worst thing we can have is an inactive town like last game. Without them posting, there cant be any way to find scum mistakes, so we should post as much as possible so they cant get away with lurking.
WIFOM means Wine In Front Of Me, which pretty much means using logic where people kinda debate about the motives or reason something was done, which is bad because you cant really know either way. For instance, Mafia kills someone who was accusing one person. WIFOM would be saying, Oh this person is mafia because the person who accused him died. WIFOM is also the opposite, I am not mafia because the person who accused me died, and i am being framed. (based off of SNMMVIII)
@Sc2system: that is not a correct use of WIFOM, though tbf a lot of people use it that way it seems on TL. If something is not legit explain the logical fallacy or false premises, using the term WIFOM in such a general way makes the term, and your counter argument, useless.
The term comes from this:
And Nova_Terra is kind of right, it refers more particularly to the logical fallacy of infinite regress in the context of psychology (or motive as TN pointed out): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infinite_regress
On March 22 2012 13:43 BlueyD wrote: Hey, I'm BlueyD and this is my first game of Mafia ever, but I've read a few here on TL and I think I have a good feel for how this works.
This said, it's been 3 hours since we've gotten our roles, and no one has spoken yet. I'd like to see everyone at least post to confirm activity. Whoever doesn't start posting is already suspicious at worst, and useless at best. We don't want any mafia hiding among the lurkers. I'll personally support lynching an inactive unless something pretty big happens.
Good luck to all, and may the most able survive!
Three hours is not cause for alarm at the start of the game ha.
Lets get this rolling.
##Vote: Mementoss
Only because you outplayed us so hard last game. Prove you are town this time!
Lol no posts and you scurrred already. I cannot prove that I am town as its like half a day into the game lol. Here is the best I can do I am TOWN. I will further prove that I am town when I push a scum lynch day 2. For now im going to talk about the lynch today, basically my thoughts are anything but no lynch.
This is my third game, and I have a new opinion about day 1 than before, check my meta if you would like. Im just letting you know so you don't say OMG he has different thoughts than before hes auto-mafia. I think its all fine and dandy to throw around accusations first day and put pressure on posters/lurkers, but at the end of day 1 its too hard to get a decent case off. (Eg, SNMMVIII - FirmTofu case based one 1 post)
Therefore, I say we lynch a lurker/useless poster day 1, unless we have a significant scum slip. Why is this beneifical to us the town, even though there is a good chance it will be a townie? 1) Helps narrow down the field for scum hunting later 2) Keeps the active ratio higher for discussion 3) Attempts to keep replacements out of the game, which are always difficult to read and deal with as one persons scum meta =/= the other persons.
That all being said, if this is your first game please make a good effort to read the thread, and not only respond to current situations/discussions. But come up with your own cases based on filter, and not gut feeling or OMGUS.
The main reason I won as mafia last game is because out mafia team contained a good 50% of the active discussion, and could sway the town opinion with well thought out cases about innocent people. Or other people would do it for us and we could just agree with it or post an alternative case so the focus was kept on those two. We as the town have the number advantage if we are all active, this is advantage useless otherwise.
This being said. No one is confirmed town until the flip green. Obviously if someone pushes a case for a scum lynch or two, they are most likely not bussing 2/3 of their team away. Since no one is confirmed town, pressure eventually needs to be applied to everyone at some point in the game. Last game as mafia I never had 1 case on me or 1 FoS or 1 Vote.
Lets make this the first SNMM town win since SNMM I!
Hey guys, just woke up, sorry for not replying yet. 3am is quite late for us Europeans, but I'm here now This is my third or fourth game of TL Mafia, I've organized Insane Mafia before which was an absolutely insane game and a ton of fun. I'm also pro lynching someone on day 1 as lynches are the only reliable way to kill mafia. We don't know if there's a vigilante in the game, but I don't think we can count on it. We should also treat any roleclaims with suspicion. Don't blindly follow anyone that claims, or anyone that makes long posts. Think for yourself and don't jump on bandwagons. From what I've seen in other games this is generally what kills towns. Mafia is by definition more organized so they're better at bandwagoning, though a smart mafia will never have everyone voting on one person. However, if there's any risk of a mafia getting lynched they'll normally switch their votes off so anyone that switches votes at the last minute should be viewed with suspicion.
I have to head to work in a few minutes, but I wanted to post my initial thoughts about the opening of the game:
GMarshal stated that mafia has won the last several newbie games. I looked into the 3 on the first page of mafia to look at the basics on opening strategy. Two of the games had a no lynch night 1. I would suggest we lynch, since clearly a no lynch doesn’t work out well...
Additionally, I would suggest we open with a lurker lynch strategy. Stating our willingness to lynch a lurker should force activity. If push comes to shove, we must follow through, but hopefully it will force no lurkers. I know mafia tips suggest policy lynches are bad, but I think it's hard to get the ball rolling in newbie games.
Finally, I read that even mislynching a townie can be beneficial. It shows who started the accusation, who jumped on the bandwagon and when, who changed their votes and when and why, etc. This reenforces my idea of a lynch on day1.
I will probably post again, at work if possible, after reading the few posts and looking into the previous newbie game openings some more.
I've been reading FAQs and strategy and whatnot (I missed getting last game by a bit :/) but still had to look up OMGUS. So here is a webpage I found useful: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Main_Page
I would still like to go back and read the opening day of some of the newbie games. I will do this regardless, but I think it would be beneficial for those that played in those newbie games to go back, reread, and offer analysis of those games as well (or even if you didn't play like me!) My point is we can't analyze players who haven't played any games very accurately, but we can analyze strategy of past newbie games.
I'm at school right now and might go to a party directly after, at worst I'll catch up and post my thoughts some hours before the dead line. Have fun guys, let the town prevail !
Appreciate the links on some of the terms used frequently in mafia games, helps a lot.
Completely agree that a no-lynch on D1 is a terrible idea, at worst we get an inactive, useless town member, at best we hit a random mafia attempting to hide amongst lurkers.
As for things noticed so far, Nova_Terra from the last game was an extremely active town member, pushing multiple suspicions and lynches and generally being as pro-town as possible. Inclined to believe town alignment unless the behaviour differentiates from this as the game progresses.
Not enough info yet to pick up on anything suspicious, hard to get a decent D1 lynch in, but lets keep the thread active and progressing, try and stay away from repeating things that have already been said and making posts with no real content to them.
Well, seeing as it is day one and anyone could be lynched based purely on activity, I'll try my best to post my thoughts somewhere during the next few hours.
Hi guys, just got back from school. Glad to see that more people posted, will check to see who that leaves in a minute. The one thing that i do not like about everyone deciding to lynch a lurker is the strange scrambling that happens if the lurker does happen to post up. in reverse, if the player shows activity in the very beginning and then cuts off all contact for over a day and a half (what happened with firmtofu last game) i dont consider to be that good of a lynch, as i find that if the person was in fact scum, they would be there and try to post to defend themselves. Therefore if all lurkers do post, we should vote to lynch whoever seems the most suspicious at that given moment. @Virtu, I want to play like last game, but with less emotion and OMGUS. it really killed me there.
Another thing I learned from last game and I think Nova_Terra will agree with me is, making connections (or anti-connections) between players is absolutely useless until the town flips its first scum. Keep track of it for all means, just no need to post it until scum is flipped and it can be used with case analysis (can't stand alone as a case). Cause you can literally find these connections between most players, its just the nature of the game, and the town trying to work as a team.
People I consider to be lurkers right now, until further notice:
Seviro (one useless post, but he's there) Rise of Fenix (one useless post calling me a townie for posting first, I want his opinion on day 1 lynching) Ninja4Ever (he did say he would post later)
No one is entirely inactive, but most people seem to agree to lynch a lurker day 1. This means we have to start thinking about who to lynch if there's no convenient lurker.
On Gossemer's early vote for Mementoss: He was quick to accuse someone in SNMMVIII as well, where he played town. I think it's just a townie move to get discussions going.
On March 22 2012 23:38 Mementoss wrote: Another thing I learned from last game and I think Nova_Terra will agree with me is, making connections (or anti-connections) between players is absolutely useless until the town flips its first scum. Keep track of it for all means, just no need to post it until scum is flipped and it can be used with case analysis (can't stand alone as a case). Cause you can literally find these connections between most players, its just the nature of the game, and the town trying to work as a team.
Yeah, you are totally right, and i think i have learned that now too. Also, another point against not posting Connection Cases is that it alienates people and if you are town and at least 1-2 of them are town, they are less likely to vote alongside you if you put them as a possible scum connection. If one does flip scum, THEN post your connection analysis.
As expected, i went back through our list and everybody had posted. If we are going to lynch a lurker, we'll have to keep track of filters over the next day. I should think that Seviro will be here soon, believe he said something about posting "tomorrow"
On March 22 2012 23:38 Mementoss wrote: Another thing I learned from last game and I think Nova_Terra will agree with me is, making connections (or anti-connections) between players is absolutely useless until the town flips its first scum. Keep track of it for all means, just no need to post it until scum is flipped and it can be used with case analysis (can't stand alone as a case). Cause you can literally find these connections between most players, its just the nature of the game, and the town trying to work as a team.
Yeah, you are totally right, and i think i have learned that now too. Also, another point against not posting Connection Cases is that it alienates people and if you are town and at least 1-2 of them are town, they are less likely to vote alongside you if you put them as a possible scum connection. If one does flip scum, THEN post your connection analysis.
As expected, i went back through our list and everybody had posted. If we are going to lynch a lurker, we'll have to keep track of filters over the next day. I should think that Seviro will be here soon, believe he said something about posting "tomorrow"
I noticed you were very quick to anger, especially if someone made a post directly against you. Didn't follow the game to it's conclusion but I'll re-read it later tonight and see who were the ones provoking you, because the town atmosphere in that game got destroyed pretty quickly. Nice to see even with over 24h left on D1 that most people are posting, less lurkers and more active posters the better so we can weed out the mafia instead of taking shots in the dark.
Back in a few hours, some work to do then travel home, food etc.
On March 22 2012 23:33 Nova_Terra wrote: The one thing that i do not like about everyone deciding to lynch a lurker is the strange scrambling that happens if the lurker does happen to post up. in reverse, if the player shows activity in the very beginning and then cuts off all contact for over a day and a half (what happened with firmtofu last game) i dont consider to be that good of a lynch, as i find that if the person was in fact scum, they would be there and try to post to defend themselves. Therefore if all lurkers do post, we should vote to lynch whoever seems the most suspicious at that given moment.
The point is forcing people to contribute gives us more information to work with, maybe not for day 1 but for further down the line. Also people bandwagoning a 'defensive' lurker can be telling.
Remember, information is good for town. That said, jumping to conclusions is silly, you're misgivings are well put
On March 22 2012 23:42 BlueyD wrote: People I consider to be lurkers right now, until further notice:
Seviro (one useless post, but he's there) Rise of Fenix (one useless post calling me a townie for posting first, I want his opinion on day 1 lynching) Ninja4Ever (he did say he would post later)
No one is entirely inactive, but most people seem to agree to lynch a lurker day 1. This means we have to start thinking about who to lynch if there's no convenient lurker.
On Gossemer's early vote for Mementoss: He was q
My post wasn't useless, I had to post something before going to bed and I can't post while i'm asleep sorry .
As for the lurker lynch we should really put pressure on this, as Mementoss and Nova said, last game all three scums were very active and it was easy for them to control the flow of the game. It is useless to have the number advantage if half of the town only post once in a while just to make sure they are not modkilled. If you look at last day of last game (SNMMVIII) we were 5 town/3 scums and in one day we lynched a townie and 2 others got modkilled, and one of the lurkers was a Blue. This overall inactivity was a good part of why we lose the game since every lurker that we targetted flipped town.
That said we should put pressure on lurker but not lynch them to fast because last game's situation will happen again and we will die horribly.
I just want to point out now how much i hate replacements. Velinath replaced Cosine last game and then proceeded to accuse me hardcore (as he was mafia) and there wasnt really much i could do about it as as soon as he joined it was already a situation where if we mislynched we lost. Seviro, while i agree with your post, i dont get how we can put pressure on lurkers but not lynch them fast, as thats really the only way to pressure them. Froggy, can you explain what you mean by, " a 'defensive' lurker."? a bit confused. I am hoping that there will be a bit more content by tomorrow morning (for europeans that is) and then i will start going through some filters to hopefully get where people are coming from.
Froggy, can you explain what you mean by, " a 'defensive' lurker."? a bit confused.
Sorry, I'm in the middle of a stats class so my brain is a bit frazzled...
I meant a lurker who responds to pressure over-defensively.
What I have been saying (and I think what Seviro is saying), is to be able to analyse behaviour you need to get actions and reactions from people. The analysis then has to be correct in of itself. The decision to lynch should therefore be based on 1. information (gathered by pressuring, amongst other ways) 2. Correct analysis. But without 1. we shall never be able to do 2. And therefore any decisions to lynch will be less strong.
Day one lynching is always a solid plan to move foreward, but no real tells are showing thus far. I will likely post my thoughts about 1 hour before the deadline. But not lynching anyone only benefits the scum.
On March 22 2012 23:44 BlueyD wrote: Ack! Pushed enter by accident. EBWOP.
On Gossemer's early vote for Mementoss: He was quick to accuse someone in SNMMVIII as well, where he played town. I think it's just a townie move to get discussions going.
AND, I was right (and so was Nova)! But sadly, we didn't keep pushing ha.
If we are going to lynch a lurker lets put some pressure now and not waste time. So far Ninja4ever and Rise Of Fenix of yet to post anything really; however, Ninja did say he was going to post later.
On March 22 2012 14:14 Rise Of Fenix wrote: well, you posting first probably eludes you being mafia and drawing unneeded attention to yourself. That is not to say that this could be a fake out, but I am inclined to believe you are town. Who else would like to speak up?
On March 22 2012 22:20 Ninja4ever. wrote: I'm at school right now and might go to a party directly after, at worst I'll catch up and post my thoughts some hours before the dead line. Have fun guys, let the town prevail !
On March 22 2012 22:50 Ninja4ever. wrote: Well, seeing as it is day one and anyone could be lynched based purely on activity, I'll try my best to post my thoughts somewhere during the next few hours.
##Unvote: Mementoss
##Vote: Rise Of Fenix
I don't understand his only post. He contradicts himself by saving that BlueyD was probably mafia, but thinks he is town in the next sentence? Suspicious to me.
On March 23 2012 05:24 Rise Of Fenix wrote: Day one lynching is always a solid plan to move foreward, but no real tells are showing thus far. I will likely post my thoughts about 1 hour before the deadline. But not lynching anyone only benefits the scum.
Waiting untill only an hour before the deadline to post your thoughts is a bad idea. Not all of us are on the same time zone. Try a few hours at least. I mean the deadline is not for another ~1.25 days.
On March 23 2012 05:24 Rise Of Fenix wrote: Day one lynching is always a solid plan to move foreward, but no real tells are showing thus far. I will likely post my thoughts about 1 hour before the deadline. But not lynching anyone only benefits the scum.
Why would you not post your thoughts now instead of one hour before the deadline? We could actually discuss them if you post it now, there's no reason not to.
Yeah rise, saying your thoughts 1 hour before deadline is a really bad idea. 1. i would be sleeping and 2. nobody would have much time to think about it and change a vote. If you have any thoughts, please post them. The more active town, the merrier.
On March 23 2012 04:37 Nova_Terra wrote: Seviro, while i agree with your post, i dont get how we can put pressure on lurkers but not lynch them fast, as thats really the only way to pressure them.
Pretty much what froggy said, last game we didn't really pressure them as much, yes we were talking a lot about lynching them but as soon as they posted like 1 or 2 post we were ok and were going on another subject. If we are talking about something, we need to have the opinion of everyone. I'll take Eleanthas of last game as an example, everytime he posted something he was completely ignoring the discussion that was going on, that should not happen.
And about Rise, posting your thought about 1 hour before the deadline is possibly the more scummy thing you could do as the deadline is relatively late and a lot of people are not around at the time. Voting at this time is basically a ninja vote and it is not right to do so since, as Nova said we wouldn't have enough time to discuss about it and change our vote if need be.
I know it is hard to contribute on Day1 in a newbie game, but again, the only way to force... is to force it... Post anything of value to this game of mafia. Even a weak thought about who looks suspicious, who doesn't, if you think we should day1 lynch etc.
Posts that say nothing "HI GUYS" are equal to not posting in my book. As are posts simply agreeing with another post. Try and post some original thought, regardless of how weak it is.
I've made a spreadsheet with posts and ranked posts according to a day1-content scale I made. These are the three lowest people:
1)sc2system 2)Ninja4ever 3)Froggynoddy
You all have posts, but not enough substance!
ULTIMATUM: Post something of value within 8 hours or you are getting my vote!
michaelthe could you make that 12 hours for them? some of them might live in europe and they have my sympathy. Also would everyone be okay with a 6 hour soft deadline?
On March 23 2012 06:22 Nova_Terra wrote: michaelthe could you make that 12 hours for them? some of them might live in europe and they have my sympathy. Also would everyone be okay with a 6 hour soft deadline?
not much of an ultimatum if I change it 5 minutes later!
On March 23 2012 06:22 Nova_Terra wrote: michaelthe could you make that 12 hours for them? some of them might live in europe and they have my sympathy. Also would everyone be okay with a 6 hour soft deadline?
I'm okay with 6 but I'd like 8 more. 6 feel kind of short.
On March 23 2012 06:16 michaelthe wrote: I know it is hard to contribute on Day1 in a newbie game, but again, the only way to force... is to force it... Post anything of value to this game of mafia. Even a weak thought about who looks suspicious, who doesn't, if you think we should day1 lynch etc.
Posts that say nothing "HI GUYS" are equal to not posting in my book. As are posts simply agreeing with another post. Try and post some original thought, regardless of how weak it is.
I've made a spreadsheet with posts and ranked posts according to a day1-content scale I made. These are the three lowest people:
1)sc2system 2)Ninja4ever 3)Froggynoddy
You all have posts, but not enough substance!
ULTIMATUM: Post something of value within 8 hours or you are getting my vote!
How in the world is Fenix not number one on this list?
On March 23 2012 06:16 michaelthe wrote: I know it is hard to contribute on Day1 in a newbie game, but again, the only way to force... is to force it... Post anything of value to this game of mafia. Even a weak thought about who looks suspicious, who doesn't, if you think we should day1 lynch etc.
Posts that say nothing "HI GUYS" are equal to not posting in my book. As are posts simply agreeing with another post. Try and post some original thought, regardless of how weak it is.
I've made a spreadsheet with posts and ranked posts according to a day1-content scale I made. These are the three lowest people:
1)sc2system 2)Ninja4ever 3)Froggynoddy
You all have posts, but not enough substance!
ULTIMATUM: Post something of value within 8 hours or you are getting my vote!
How in the world is Fenix not number one on this list?
Actually, completely by accident. He should be below sc2system and ninja, but above froggy.
I was tracking posts by quality and page by assigning a value to each post from 0 (greeting, basic chatter), 1 (very basic, but maybe an opinion), 2 (basic thoughts), or 3 (solid attempt at analysis for day1). Best I could do for day1... I suspect filters and exact content will matter more on day 2 or 3+
The scores are as follows:
sc2system: 0,0 (a few posts on day1 I lumpped I think) Ninja: 0,0 Froggy: 0,1,1
And, as you said and I missed: Fenix: 1,1 (Argentina)
So I will add him to the list, I guess in fairness I will give him 8 hours from this post, so an extra 40 minutes or whatever
On March 22 2012 23:44 BlueyD wrote: Ack! Pushed enter by accident. EBWOP.
On Gossemer's early vote for Mementoss: He was quick to accuse someone in SNMMVIII as well, where he played town. I think it's just a townie move to get discussions going.
AND, I was right (and so was Nova)! But sadly, we didn't keep pushing ha.
If we are going to lynch a lurker lets put some pressure now and not waste time. So far Ninja4ever and Rise Of Fenix of yet to post anything really; however, Ninja did say he was going to post later.
On March 22 2012 14:14 Rise Of Fenix wrote: well, you posting first probably eludes you being mafia and drawing unneeded attention to yourself. That is not to say that this could be a fake out, but I am inclined to believe you are town. Who else would like to speak up?
On March 22 2012 22:20 Ninja4ever. wrote: I'm at school right now and might go to a party directly after, at worst I'll catch up and post my thoughts some hours before the dead line. Have fun guys, let the town prevail !
On March 22 2012 22:50 Ninja4ever. wrote: Well, seeing as it is day one and anyone could be lynched based purely on activity, I'll try my best to post my thoughts somewhere during the next few hours.
##Unvote: Mementoss
##Vote: Rise Of Fenix
On March 22 2012 14:14 Rise Of Fenix wrote: well, you posting first probably eludes you being mafia and drawing unneeded attention to yourself. That is not to say that this could be a fake out, but I am inclined to believe you are town. Who else would like to speak up?
On March 23 2012 05:33 Gossemerr wrote:I don't understand his only post. He contradicts himself by saving that BlueyD was probably mafia, but thinks he is town in the next sentence? Suspicious to me.
Just to clarify, he doesn't say BlueyD was probably mafia, he says he's probably NOT mafia. It's just really badly worded. "eludes you being mafia", terrible english but saying that he's probably not mafia.
Would like to push the people who have hardly posted/haven't posted yet into at least making themselves known, if not we can pretty much assume they are not going to be useful to town, and are more likely to be mafia than those who have been outspoken so far. Namely the 3 listed in the list above.
Will make a thorough post during/after work tomorrow and we can settle on a lynch target, night all.
Trust me, my vote would be at you, but I will give everyone the benefit of the doubt. There is no unlynch in this game right? All lynch votes are final.
On March 23 2012 07:39 Rise Of Fenix wrote: Trust me, my vote would be at you, but I will give everyone the benefit of the doubt. There is no unlynch in this game right? All lynch votes are final.
there's no haste to vote yet, it's just that you said you would wait about and hour before the deadline before your vote, which is really late.
It will be best for everyone if we say something like 8 to 6 hour before the deadline we should post what is our vote at that moment. At this point we can discuss and see what would be the best for the town. If at the time of the "soft" deadline you have no one that you think is more suspicious than the other you can always vote for no-lynch and change your vote later.
It depends, on day 1 it is bad since we have no informations whatsoever if we don'T lynch someone, but later in the game a no lynch can be better than a mislynch. It does seems scummy but at time it can be good (rarely tho).
But my point was not to no lynch, it was that you can vote no-lynch like 6-8 hour before the deadline if you don't know who to vote for and then with the discussion that follow you can make up your mind.
EBWOP, If we agree that everyone should have a vote posted at a set time before the deadline (since no one disagreed right now let's say 8 to 6 hour) we can then make a better choice for the lynch of this day and if someone fail to do so then he is most likely to be proposed as a lunch candidate.
But now I think everyone should post what are their thought about that, if they agree etc. If we want to be able to win this, we need to work together and to not let 1 or 2 people take the control of the town.
Right now just looking through the last two pages it just seems like spammy overhaul from Rise of Fenix and Michael. Honestly, none of it says anything that is of interest to me. Rise of Fenix makes a list of quality/quantity of posts, which is useful for yourself but not when everyone has like 3 posts. Notably he leaves an obvious choice Fenix off there, Goss calls him out on it and he says "my bad" essentially. Then Rise of Fenix posts like 5 times, to get his ass off that inactivity list. Nothing of value however. Lets go through it together shall we?
Rise of Fenix:
On March 22 2012 14:14 Rise Of Fenix wrote: well, you posting first probably eludes you being mafia and drawing unneeded attention to yourself. That is not to say that this could be a fake out, but I am inclined to believe you are town. Who else would like to speak up?
Confusing and weird way to say things. Trying to confirm town on one post? Really? If mafia knew posting first could confirm town they would be all over it. Could be a cover up for a fellow scum. Attempts to be pro-town by promoting activity.
On March 23 2012 05:24 Rise Of Fenix wrote: Day one lynching is always a solid plan to move foreward, but no real tells are showing thus far. I will likely post my thoughts about 1 hour before the deadline. But not lynching anyone only benefits the scum.
This is about the scummiest thing you could ever say. Im going to post my opinion when it's already too late to influence a lynch! At least I can say I had one, so people don't think i'm scum. Also, obviously there are no tells when everyone has 2 posts.
On March 23 2012 07:27 Rise Of Fenix wrote: What I said was not that I wouldnt post until the End, I meant i wouldnt vote until the end.
I feel that gossamer wouldnt post this much if he was scum
Michaelthe has just said to get the inactives. Meh, could be either.
Serivo pointed out that I said something stupid, and talked about the time. I say innocent
Nova has talked about the time and how I said something stupid. Also innocent I think
Artanis asked for my opinion. I am giving it to him.
The scummiest person right now in my opinion is michaelthe, as he seems anxious to lynch someone who hasn't really said anything yet.
However, I will keep my lynch for later.
Still, not voting till the end is perfect for mafia, it shows you are not thinking for yourself. Your basing your vote off of what other people do, band wagoning, trying to blend in. Scum, scum scum. Everyone that pointed out you said something stupid, innocent? Great reasoning.
Lists like this are useless, just a post or 2 ago you said you had no solid reads right now , and none of these are backed up by posts, just a half sentence reasoning. Why did you pick these random selection of people and not everyone? Especially if your not gunna back it up with anything. Everyone you said is town have the most quality in there posts. You trying to get in good with them so they don't put a case against you? Goss voted for you, and you didn't even respond to it... You just ignored it despite posting 6 times afterwards.
On March 23 2012 07:35 Rise Of Fenix wrote: I prefer not to vote now because I think that until everyone has given their opinion, everyone else deserves equal suspicion.
I prefer not to vote now or ever iniate a vote for that matter, because I don't want people to have suspicion of me, or to get on any ones bad side. It is much easier to stay out of the spotlight if I can just agree with a good case against a townie!
On March 23 2012 07:39 Rise Of Fenix wrote: Trust me, my vote would be at you, but I will give everyone the benefit of the doubt. There is no unlynch in this game right? All lynch votes are final.
On March 23 2012 07:48 Rise Of Fenix wrote: Oh I didn't know that.
But I still have no person picked to lynch yet.
WAT. Hey dude I would totally vote you if it wasn't permanent. Wait... it isn't permanent. Well it doesn't matter cause I have nobody picked out to vote. Wishy washy contradicting shit right there.
On March 23 2012 07:58 Rise Of Fenix wrote: No lynch is LITERALLY the scummiest thing to do. No lynch only helps scum.
Hey guys, since your considering lynching a lurker im going to post a total of 8 times. That way I will never get lynched, right? Also to prove im town im going to add in something pro town. Even though it was pretty much established by the majority of the players in the first couple posts.
EBWOP: That no lynch post by RoF was response to Seviro, but Seviro didn't say that, he said after day 1 no-lynch is perfectly viable. Which can be true.
Quickly browsed through the thread, saw I'm in the lynch list cause of my inactivity. Can't really say anything about it for now, as it makes a lot of sense to lynch a lurker on the first day, and I'm too drunk to properly write my thoughts, especially in a language I'm not native of. I'll make sure to wake up early and post before going to school. See you guys in ~7/8 hours.
Wow. Michaelthe, I'm not sure if you are bad town or bad scum. Regardless, you seem pretty bad.
You're first post states (after day 1) that you are for lurker lynch:
Additionally, I would suggest we open with a lurker lynch strategy. Stating our willingness to lynch a lurker should force activity. If push comes to shove, we must follow through, but hopefully it will force no lurkers. I know mafia tips suggest policy lynches are bad, but I think it's hard to get the ball rolling in newbie games.
You're second post has no content:
Ok,
It took like 2 minutes to read the 8 posts so far
I've been reading FAQs and strategy and whatnot (I missed getting last game by a bit :/) but still had to look up OMGUS. So here is a webpage I found useful: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Main_Page
I would still like to go back and read the opening day of some of the newbie games. I will do this regardless, but I think it would be beneficial for those that played in those newbie games to go back, reread, and offer analysis of those games as well (or even if you didn't play like me!) My point is we can't analyze players who haven't played any games very accurately, but we can analyze strategy of past newbie games.
Your third point is some very weak finger pointing:
I know it is hard to contribute on Day1 in a newbie game, but again, the only way to force... is to force it... Post anything of value to this game of mafia. Even a weak thought about who looks suspicious, who doesn't, if you think we should day1 lynch etc.
Posts that say nothing "HI GUYS" are equal to not posting in my book. As are posts simply agreeing with another post. Try and post some original thought, regardless of how weak it is.
I've made a spreadsheet with posts and ranked posts according to a day1-content scale I made. These are the three lowest people:
1)sc2system 2)Ninja4ever 3)Froggynoddy
You all have posts, but not enough substance!
ULTIMATUM: Post something of value within 8 hours or you are getting my vote!
There is pretty much nothing to go by. Your content is zilch, you are putting suspicion on people who have more content than you; I have argued that forcing lurkers to post is beneficial to town, more convincingly than you have (as has seviro and to a certain extent Nova_Terra), yet you put a really weak case forward against three posters.
I'm not voting for you YET but you seriously need to shape up. Accusing players who have posted content in day 1 seems scummy to me as there is so little to go by.
Ok, just read Mementoss' post. I like your thinking, you are the most townie read in my books (though at this stage of the game that means little). I wouldn't read too much into this though:
On March 23 2012 05:24 Rise Of Fenix wrote: Day one lynching is always a solid plan to move foreward, but no real tells are showing thus far. I will likely post my thoughts about 1 hour before the deadline. But not lynching anyone only benefits the scum.
This is about the scummiest thing you could ever say. Im going to post my opinion when it's already too late to influence a lynch! At least I can say I had one, so people don't think i'm scum. Also, obviously there are no tells when everyone has 2 posts.
He says a vaguely townie thing (i.e. not lynching is anti-town) and says something that could mean a variety of things i.e. that he won't post until last hour
That could mean he is 1. noob (we all are) 2. busy (I'm working tomorrow so I kinda appreciate this point) or 3. terribad scum.
Your point is well taken though and I don't mean to dismiss it. I'd just rather get rid of people who are not giving any information at all at this stage (though I am more than willing to be argued against)
Just a quick summary of Rise of Fenix's behavior up to now...
- Admits to not reading the rules and says some really confused stuff about voting as a result - Accuses michaelthe due to his eagerness to lynch an inactive, when many have argued we should do this - Tells michaelthe he would vote for him if there were an unlynch in the game - Doesn't actually put in a vote for michaelthe once he knows he can unvote later, says he has no reads instead - Uses really short posts frequently
I don't know if the guy is awful scum or awful townie. All I know is he's awful. If he's town, he'll be absolutely useless to us, but if he's mafia, he'll quickly give himself out on the 2nd day, at this pace. I'm putting my chips on bad townie for the moment.
To Rise Of Fenix: You better come up with some real information as to why you acted like you acted (see above points), or else I WILL put my vote in for your lynch.
---
Ninja4Ever. and sc2system seem to be our 2 big time lurkers at the moment. They, together with Fenix, are part of my top 3 should lynch list.
My points: I dont think I was thinking straight, and reading over my posts I have really been really playing terribly. Im sorry.
However, I think it is time for a little bit of analysis.
As I was suspicious of Michaelthe earlier, and then was backed up by froggy. Michael the never defended himself. I think that this is reason enough to lynch him, but until he defends himself I wont.
Just woke up it is 6:30am over here. I am for the vote on the first day but I would feel very bad if we vote on someone who is innocent. I am still tierd and when I just quickly read through the posts you made after I went to bed.
I will give you my stronger opinion around 9:00am when I wake more up. I might even post at 8:10am.
Right now I am only a little bit suspicious of Fenix. But I am not ready to vote on him being lynched.
Thanks and Good Morning to all the Europeans waking up right now.
On March 23 2012 14:21 Rise Of Fenix wrote: My points: I dont think I was thinking straight, and reading over my posts I have really been really playing terribly. Im sorry.
However, I think it is time for a little bit of analysis.
As I was suspicious of Michaelthe earlier, and then was backed up by froggy. Michael the never defended himself. I think that this is reason enough to lynch him, but until he defends himself I wont.
I couldn't help but laugh a bit, one of the main criticisms of your play is that when you wanted to accuse me then found out you could vote and change it off you still didnt.... You still arent!
Anyways, I was going to post before I went to bed on the issues of the past few hours:
On Fenix:
The issue is whether he was legitimately confused or had some sort of contradiction. One of the things that caught my eye when Mementoss lined up Fenix's posts where these two lines:
On March 23 2012 05:24 Rise Of Fenix wrote: Day one lynching is always a solid plan to move foreward, but no real tells are showing thus far. I will likely post my thoughts about 1 hour before the deadline. But not lynching anyone only benefits the scum.
On March 23 2012 07:27 Rise Of Fenix wrote: What I said was not that I wouldnt post until the End, I meant i wouldnt vote until the end. .
Someone pointed out that voting last minute appears scummy, but then he insists he meant vote and not post thoughts. The idea of him voting late became somewhat reasonable when we found out he didn't know you could change your vote, but the idea that he initially posted thoughts when he meant votes is still odd. Even with English as a second language, thoughts and votes are not the same.
The other analysis of Fenix was based on a few other minor contradictions such as accusing without voting, saying he would vote for me but not (and again here...) and a few other minor things.
The issue is simple- is Fenix just making bad plays, or is he scum making really odd contradictions. Some of the things I thought of when looking at Mementoss' criticism are 1) Most newbies games don't find a mafia in day 1, the analysis is too shaky, 2) Fenix made multiple mistakes with terms and ideas, reinforces the idea that Fenix is just making bad plays...
On March 23 2012 11:44 BlueyD wrote: I don't know if the guy is awful scum or awful townie. All I know is he's awful. If he's town, he'll be absolutely useless to us, .
This might be true, but we still have a few people that are lurking really hard. I was hoping to stop lurkers with my vote ultimatum, and it worked (or helped) with a few people. But we still have a few that aren't posting. After thinking about it, I think a vote for one of these is better. They are less helpful than "awful town" and also, it prevents them from being modkilled- which is real bad for the town.
On Froggy
You came out VERY defensive. I called for lurkers to post, and they did... But hey, that's not my strategy!:
On March 23 2012 04:54 froggynoddy wrote: The decision to lynch should therefore be based on 1. information (gathered by pressuring, amongst other ways) 2. Correct analysis. But without 1. we shall never be able to do 2. And therefore any decisions to lynch will be less strong.
I as well am just waking up, and i was very pleased with the activity. We have learned: Rise of Fenix is playing in a scummy manner Sc2system and Ninja4ever. are not posting much aside from introductions and explaining why they werent there, etc. Gossemerr, Mementoss, and Michaelthe are playing aggressively, which i like, as even if they are scum they are driving discussion and with their current level of activity would probably make a noticable mistake soon.
I would like a lynch on Rise of Fenix more than i would sc2 or ninja, as 1. I find his posts to be relatively wishy washy and scummy and 2. he is either bad scum or bad town(not trying to be offensive, but your play seems very inexperienced, even if this is a newbie game) in either case, it hurts us more than it helps us. When compared with the lurkers (sc2 and ninja) the lurkers behavior, or lack of one, isnt really hurting the town as much as confusing us is. However, there is still plenty of time for rise and the lurkers to post more content that should be useful. I cant wait to hear Sc2System's 'stronger opinion'.
About the kill lurker strategy : it can make sense, mafia are often lurking as it gives them a way to not be judged and therefore not make mistake. At worst a not so useful townie is killed. Seem like the best thing we can come up with with the lack of information we have on day one. Although, I'd like to say that, since from the very first posts, we said our strategy would very like be to hit on the lurker list. the probabilities of a mafia lurking aren't that great. It's also interesting to think about HOW a lurking mafia, if there is one, would react to such a strategy ? Two things come to my mind : an inexperienced mafia would all of a sudden start posting a lot more than he previously was, and a more experienced one would probably stop lurking just enough not to be considered a lurker anymore. Townies wouldn't change their behavior. I'll analyse more on the lurker list and on the rise of fenix case when I'm back from school, gotta go for now.
On March 23 2012 14:21 Rise Of Fenix wrote: My points: I dont think I was thinking straight, and reading over my posts I have really been really playing terribly. Im sorry.
However, I think it is time for a little bit of analysis.
As I was suspicious of Michaelthe earlier, and then was backed up by froggy. Michael the never defended himself. I think that this is reason enough to lynch him, but until he defends himself I wont.
Just because Michaelthe hasn't defended himself doesn't excuse you from not defending yourself.
You came out VERY defensive. I called for lurkers to post, and they did... But hey, that's not my strategy!:
On March 23 2012 04:54 froggynoddy wrote: The decision to lynch should therefore be based on 1. information (gathered by pressuring, amongst other ways) 2. Correct analysis. But without 1. we shall never be able to do 2. And therefore any decisions to lynch will be less strong.
Fair enough, I'd rather you post people's posts and explain why they are lacking in content rather than say 'I have a file that says you are posting no content'. Show your evidence and then explain your analysis. You seem to be playing aggressively, which is prob good town play at this stage of the game, but playing aggressively with unclear reasoning/basis is anti-town as it confuses and disorganises a concerted town effort to scumhunt.
Oh and I was defensive cuz I'd just got home from a uni event (and was somewhat the worse for wear). That being said I stand by the content of what I posted, though perhaps not the tone.
Even though there are other people that don’t contribute or contribute as much as Rise of Fenix I feel that he should be lynched the first day. He does try to “contribute” but the problem is he seemingly tries to help but ends up confusing the town. I would redraw my vote if he can come up with something that puts town in the right direction instead of confusing us more. I am not contributing a lot because most of the things I want to say are already said and I don’t want to be accusing people on bad arguments because that just ruins the game and complicates it.
On March 22 2012 14:55 Seviro wrote: I just noticed it had started and now I'm going to bed so I can't speak much now. I'll come back tomorrow to participate more.
It's my second game myself (SNMMVIII, perfect win for mafia and I was among the last survivor, yay!)
Introductory post. Pretty much no content other than saying he'll post again later.
On March 22 2012 23:42 BlueyD wrote: People I consider to be lurkers right now, until further notice:
Seviro (one useless post, but he's there) Rise of Fenix (one useless post calling me a townie for posting first, I want his opinion on day 1 lynching) Ninja4Ever (he did say he would post later)
No one is entirely inactive, but most people seem to agree to lynch a lurker day 1. This means we have to start thinking about who to lynch if there's no convenient lurker.
On Gossemer's early vote for Mementoss: He was q
My post wasn't useless, I had to post something before going to bed and I can't post while i'm asleep sorry .
As for the lurker lynch we should really put pressure on this, as Mementoss and Nova said, last game all three scums were very active and it was easy for them to control the flow of the game. It is useless to have the number advantage if half of the town only post once in a while just to make sure they are not modkilled. If you look at last day of last game (SNMMVIII) we were 5 town/3 scums and in one day we lynched a townie and 2 others got modkilled, and one of the lurkers was a Blue. This overall inactivity was a good part of why we lose the game since every lurker that we targetted flipped town.
That said we should put pressure on lurker but not lynch them to fast because last game's situation will happen again and we will die horribly.
Wants to pressure for lurker lynch when this is pretty much established in town, the whole paragraph goes on about how lurking is bad which has pretty much been established already. Somewhat defends lurkers in the same post which is odd.
On March 23 2012 04:37 Nova_Terra wrote: Seviro, while i agree with your post, i dont get how we can put pressure on lurkers but not lynch them fast, as thats really the only way to pressure them.
Pretty much what froggy said, last game we didn't really pressure them as much, yes we were talking a lot about lynching them but as soon as they posted like 1 or 2 post we were ok and were going on another subject. If we are talking about something, we need to have the opinion of everyone. I'll take Eleanthas of last game as an example, everytime he posted something he was completely ignoring the discussion that was going on, that should not happen.
And about Rise, posting your thought about 1 hour before the deadline is possibly the more scummy thing you could do as the deadline is relatively late and a lot of people are not around at the time. Voting at this time is basically a ninja vote and it is not right to do so since, as Nova said we wouldn't have enough time to discuss about it and change our vote if need be.
Agrees with another townie to gain cred, this is a trend in Seviro's posts; rarely comes up with any own ideas and mostly agrees with other townies to 'blend in'. Also jumps on the against the 1 hour bandwagon which is fairly obvious. Long post basically stating the obvious and agreeing with other people.
On March 23 2012 06:22 Nova_Terra wrote: michaelthe could you make that 12 hours for them? some of them might live in europe and they have my sympathy. Also would everyone be okay with a 6 hour soft deadline?
I'm okay with 6 but I'd like 8 more. 6 feel kind of short.
Nothing of real worth here.
On March 23 2012 07:58 Seviro wrote: there's no haste to vote yet, it's just that you said you would wait about and hour before the deadline before your vote, which is really late.
It will be best for everyone if we say something like 8 to 6 hour before the deadline we should post what is our vote at that moment. At this point we can discuss and see what would be the best for the town. If at the time of the "soft" deadline you have no one that you think is more suspicious than the other you can always vote for no-lynch and change your vote later.
These are exactly the type of contributions that scum is fine with doing, as they don't really 'help' the town in any way. The Rise of Fenix train is going nicely, which if he's just a bad townie is fine for mafia.
On March 23 2012 08:05 Seviro wrote: It depends, on day 1 it is bad since we have no informations whatsoever if we don'T lynch someone, but later in the game a no lynch can be better than a mislynch. It does seems scummy but at time it can be good (rarely tho).
But my point was not to no lynch, it was that you can vote no-lynch like 6-8 hour before the deadline if you don't know who to vote for and then with the discussion that follow you can make up your mind.
Are you suddenly suggesting to no lynch? We've pretty much all agreed that not lynching day 1 is bad because of lack of information. People should vote on suspicion regardless.
On March 23 2012 08:10 Seviro wrote: EBWOP, If we agree that everyone should have a vote posted at a set time before the deadline (since no one disagreed right now let's say 8 to 6 hour) we can then make a better choice for the lynch of this day and if someone fail to do so then he is most likely to be proposed as a lunch candidate.
But now I think everyone should post what are their thought about that, if they agree etc. If we want to be able to win this, we need to work together and to not let 1 or 2 people take the control of the town.
Continuing on with something that really isn't that crucial and if people agree to 8 hours instead of 6 there's nothing groundbreaking that will be decided.
Based on all these posts that pretty much say nothing at all and seem to want to blend in most of all which seems like scum behaviour to me, though it's just a suspicion, I'm voting for Seviro for now. At worst it'll spark some more discussion.
@Artanis, although i like the fact that you are bringing up another case, the thing is that there were multiple people, including myself, who were doing relatively the same thing. Thats because at such an early point in the game, there isnt much to go by, not having had many posts and no kills as of yet. I dont find much of his posting to be inherently scummy. That being said, I would like if possible for him to post more of his own analysis without using other peoples arguments. TL;DR: i dont really think there is evidence enough to warrant lynching him as he is an active player whose posts dont seem inherently scummy.
@Nova_Terra however bandwagoning on everything and making large posts that basically say "I agree" IS scummy, because the length of the post can make it seem like you're contributing when in fact you're not saying anything new. Sure, others have done this as well, but I haven't seen anyone else make such long posts without any real 'content'.
@Nova_Terra, I know you were just stating your opinion on the case, but I don't necessarily think that is a good thing to do right away. It allows the accused to just slide by without defending their own asses, if a couple people just stick up for them. It's more interesting/can give a lot of information to see the player defend themselves/how they do it. If you come in first they can just re-write what you said in a different way.
Even if the case doesn't seem the strongest in your thoughts, if it gets discredited by people other than the accused, the accused loses all pressure, and pressure = information/scum slips.
Here is the most interesting part of the case in my opinion:
On March 23 2012 04:37 Nova_Terra wrote: Seviro, while i agree with your post, i dont get how we can put pressure on lurkers but not lynch them fast, as thats really the only way to pressure them.
Pretty much what froggy said, last game we didn't really pressure them as much, yes we were talking a lot about lynching them but as soon as they posted like 1 or 2 post we were ok and were going on another subject. If we are talking about something, we need to have the opinion of everyone. I'll take Eleanthas of last game as an example, everytime he posted something he was completely ignoring the discussion that was going on, that should not happen.
And about Rise, posting your thought about 1 hour before the deadline is possibly the more scummy thing you could do as the deadline is relatively late and a lot of people are not around at the time. Voting at this time is basically a ninja vote and it is not right to do so since, as Nova said we wouldn't have enough time to discuss about it and change our vote if need be.
Agrees with another townie to gain cred, this is a trend in Seviro's posts; rarely comes up with any own ideas and mostly agrees with other townies to 'blend in'. Also jumps on the against the 1 hour bandwagon which is fairly obvious. Long post basically stating the obvious and agreeing with other people.
Note the bolded/underlined, its both because its a very big mistake. A very big scum slip. Why is it such a huge deal? Because we have no clue if Nova_Terra is town. AT ALL. Here are the possibilities:
1) He is scum, he knows peoples roles, therefore he knows Nova_Terra is town. Slipped it by mistake. 2) He is scum, Nova_Terra is scum, he is quick to give the idea to the rest that Nova is confirmed town, when there is no proof behind it. Just saying it because Nova is active. 3) He is town, bad town play, making assumptions that lead to town not exploring all the possibilities, getting tunnelled away from someone (See me as mafia SNMM VIII)
On March 24 2012 01:43 Mementoss wrote: @Nova_Terra, I know you were just stating your opinion on the case, but I don't necessarily think that is a good thing to do right away. It allows the accused to just slide by without defending their own asses, if a couple people just stick up for them. It's more interesting/can give a lot of information to see the player defend themselves/how they do it. If you come in first they can just re-write what you said in a different way.
Even if the case doesn't seem the strongest in your thoughts, if it gets discredited by people other than the accused, the accused loses all pressure, and pressure = information/scum slips.
Here is the most interesting part of the case in my opinion:
On March 23 2012 04:37 Nova_Terra wrote: Seviro, while i agree with your post, i dont get how we can put pressure on lurkers but not lynch them fast, as thats really the only way to pressure them.
Pretty much what froggy said, last game we didn't really pressure them as much, yes we were talking a lot about lynching them but as soon as they posted like 1 or 2 post we were ok and were going on another subject. If we are talking about something, we need to have the opinion of everyone. I'll take Eleanthas of last game as an example, everytime he posted something he was completely ignoring the discussion that was going on, that should not happen.
And about Rise, posting your thought about 1 hour before the deadline is possibly the more scummy thing you could do as the deadline is relatively late and a lot of people are not around at the time. Voting at this time is basically a ninja vote and it is not right to do so since, as Nova said we wouldn't have enough time to discuss about it and change our vote if need be.
Agrees with another townie to gain cred, this is a trend in Seviro's posts; rarely comes up with any own ideas and mostly agrees with other townies to 'blend in'. Also jumps on the against the 1 hour bandwagon which is fairly obvious. Long post basically stating the obvious and agreeing with other people.
Note the bolded/underlined, its both because its a very big mistake. A very big scum slip. Why is it such a huge deal? Because we have no clue if Nova_Terra is town. AT ALL. Here are the possibilities:
1) He is scum, he knows peoples roles, therefore he knows Nova_Terra is town. Slipped it by mistake. 2) He is scum, Nova_Terra is scum, he is quick to give the idea to the rest that Nova is confirmed town, when there is no proof behind it. Just saying it because Nova is active. 3) He is town, bad town play, making assumptions that lead to town not exploring all the possibilities, getting tunnelled away from someone (See me as mafia SNMM VIII)
Dat scum slip
Oops, yeah that looks bad. That was a bad town play. What I meant was someone making a play that is obviously town favored. I worded it poorly. I believe it's a slip that both townies and scum can make with little effort though.
Also, to my defense, if I was mafia I'd probably have a large accusatory post proofread by the other mafia. The chance of a slip like that happening in that case are much smaller. And to correct myself, when I said town I simply meant all players, not specifically town aligned.
The gist of it: Ok, fair enough. I just feel that Seviro is in a position where myself or a few other posters here could be in. I feel a bit weird about that o.o nice catch on that slip, but seeing as this IS a newbie game, it isnt very telling. at all. I hate that it works that way, but yeah, i should think that scum slips (even if they are from townies) will happen relatively often. Anyways, as a general note to everybody, please dont make assumptions like this (even if they are about me.) i would prefer us to be looking at all the options than i would have us assuming peoples roles, at least in our minds. Artanis, can you tell me your thoughts on Rise of Fenix? if it came down between him and a lurker, who would you rather lynch and why?
Ok I FINALLY have time to write everything I've been thinking.
Rise Of Fenix case :
Kinda hard to speak on it as most of the things have already been said. All his posts are either contradicting each other or not adding real content. The question is, is it just bad play or mafia play ? After going through all of his post, I didn't find a lot that could help mafia, only these two little things :
Rise Of Fenix Argentina. March 23 2012 07:58.
No lynch is LITERALLY the scummiest thing to do. No lynch only helps scum.
Rise Of Fenix Argentina. March 23 2012 05:24. Posts 16PM
Day one lynching is always a solid plan to move foreward, but no real tells are showing thus far. I will likely post my thoughts about 1 hour before the deadline. But not lynching anyone only benefits the scum.
Posts basically saying we HAVE to lynch, what ever happens. No lynch on day one when we have so few information might be the best find to do. A lynch on day one is, especially in a newbie game, a good way for mafia to start, as we have too little information and too little experience to get a mafia. Now, I know in the previous game town tried the no lynch on day one strategy and it failed, but the database if just too small to make any deduction from it. All in all, I still prefere our alternative to pressure lurkers (It is really important that we don’t end up like last game where all the mafia was active against a few remaining townies + lurkers), what I wanted to say is that trying to enforce a lynch strategy is something a mafia would totally do.
I’d say it’s 60-40 beteween mafia and townie bad play. Still not enough for me to jump on the lynch band wagon. I still prefer to pressure lurkers, and switch my vote to Rise of Fenix if everyone is active enough. Therefore :
##Vote: sc2system (sorry bro, we're the 2 kind of lurkers left, can't vote for myself)
The analysts case :
People that actually seem tu put a lot of thinking into their analys are probably as important as blues. The thing is, if one of them is mafia he can screw the town pretty hard, making it really important to know wether or not they're townies. For exemple, two analyses in particular come to my mind :
1°) Mementoss on Rise of Fenix
It made perfect sense and I agreed with mostly every thing. Really nothing suspicious there.
2°) Artosis on Seviro
I don’t find your analysis based on strong enough evidences to warrant a lynch, your main argument being he posted too much redondancy and too little content, am I right ? Too me this is kinda natural when you have so few information, and it looks like every thing has been pretty much said. You could be trying to gain credit as a mafia and could also be a mafia that doesn’t want to look like he’s jumping on the Fenix wagon. By posting this analys you’d be killing two birds with one stone. As I said though, this is only really slight suspicion (around 55-45 mafia-townie, in my eyes) and even I is more suspicous at the moment, given my inactivity on the past couple days.
On March 24 2012 02:20 Nova_Terra wrote: Artanis, can you tell me your thoughts on Rise of Fenix? if it came down between him and a lurker, who would you rather lynch and why?
Rise of Fenix to me seems like someone who just is very new to Mafia and isn't sure where to go. He tries to explore options but does so in an extremely clumsy manner. His one hour before the lynch voting thing smells scummy but I have this feeling he's just a confused townie whom is very easy to be made to look bad. I don't think Mafia will be making these kinds of gaping misplays so I'm looking for something more subtle, like I did in my analysis.
On March 24 2012 02:33 Ninja4ever. wrote: 2°) Artosis on Seviro
Artosis? :/
I don’t find your analysis based on strong enough evidences to warrant a lynch, your main argument being he posted too much redondancy and too little content, am I right ? Too me this is kinda natural when you have so few information, and it looks like every thing has been pretty much said.
If you have little information and everything has already been said, you could agree with someone in a single line instead of making a giant post that basically says "I agree". Mafia gains by having the thread cluttered up with lots of useless information as it throws town off. I think that's a lot more telling than "scum slips" which are usually just typos.
You could be trying to gain credit as a mafia and could also be a mafia that doesn’t want to look like he’s jumping on the Fenix wagon. By posting this analys you’d be killing two birds with one stone. As I said though, this is only really slight suspicion (around 55-45 mafia-townie, in my eyes) and even I is more suspicous at the moment, given my inactivity on the past couple days.
WIFOM argument, I could be a townie just trying to get some analysis done to move the town forward too by posting some actual discussion. If posting analysis on a player now makes you suspicious just because you're posting analysis rather than it's contents, I don't think this town is going to go forward much, and that you find that suspicious is something I find suspicious.
On March 22 2012 14:55 Seviro wrote: I just noticed it had started and now I'm going to bed so I can't speak much now. I'll come back tomorrow to participate more.
It's my second game myself (SNMMVIII, perfect win for mafia and I was among the last survivor, yay!)
Introductory post. Pretty much no content other than saying he'll post again later.
On March 22 2012 23:42 BlueyD wrote: People I consider to be lurkers right now, until further notice:
Seviro (one useless post, but he's there) Rise of Fenix (one useless post calling me a townie for posting first, I want his opinion on day 1 lynching) Ninja4Ever (he did say he would post later)
No one is entirely inactive, but most people seem to agree to lynch a lurker day 1. This means we have to start thinking about who to lynch if there's no convenient lurker.
On Gossemer's early vote for Mementoss: He was q
My post wasn't useless, I had to post something before going to bed and I can't post while i'm asleep sorry .
As for the lurker lynch we should really put pressure on this, as Mementoss and Nova said, last game all three scums were very active and it was easy for them to control the flow of the game. It is useless to have the number advantage if half of the town only post once in a while just to make sure they are not modkilled. If you look at last day of last game (SNMMVIII) we were 5 town/3 scums and in one day we lynched a townie and 2 others got modkilled, and one of the lurkers was a Blue. This overall inactivity was a good part of why we lose the game since every lurker that we targetted flipped town.
That said we should put pressure on lurker but not lynch them to fast because last game's situation will happen again and we will die horribly.
Wants to pressure for lurker lynch when this is pretty much established in town, the whole paragraph goes on about how lurking is bad which has pretty much been established already. Somewhat defends lurkers in the same post which is odd.
On March 23 2012 04:37 Nova_Terra wrote: Seviro, while i agree with your post, i dont get how we can put pressure on lurkers but not lynch them fast, as thats really the only way to pressure them.
Pretty much what froggy said, last game we didn't really pressure them as much, yes we were talking a lot about lynching them but as soon as they posted like 1 or 2 post we were ok and were going on another subject. If we are talking about something, we need to have the opinion of everyone. I'll take Eleanthas of last game as an example, everytime he posted something he was completely ignoring the discussion that was going on, that should not happen.
And about Rise, posting your thought about 1 hour before the deadline is possibly the more scummy thing you could do as the deadline is relatively late and a lot of people are not around at the time. Voting at this time is basically a ninja vote and it is not right to do so since, as Nova said we wouldn't have enough time to discuss about it and change our vote if need be.
Agrees with another townie to gain cred, this is a trend in Seviro's posts; rarely comes up with any own ideas and mostly agrees with other townies to 'blend in'. Also jumps on the against the 1 hour bandwagon which is fairly obvious. Long post basically stating the obvious and agreeing with other people.
On March 23 2012 06:22 Nova_Terra wrote: michaelthe could you make that 12 hours for them? some of them might live in europe and they have my sympathy. Also would everyone be okay with a 6 hour soft deadline?
I'm okay with 6 but I'd like 8 more. 6 feel kind of short.
On March 23 2012 07:58 Seviro wrote: there's no haste to vote yet, it's just that you said you would wait about and hour before the deadline before your vote, which is really late.
It will be best for everyone if we say something like 8 to 6 hour before the deadline we should post what is our vote at that moment. At this point we can discuss and see what would be the best for the town. If at the time of the "soft" deadline you have no one that you think is more suspicious than the other you can always vote for no-lynch and change your vote later.
These are exactly the type of contributions that scum is fine with doing, as they don't really 'help' the town in any way. The Rise of Fenix train is going nicely, which if he's just a bad townie is fine for mafia.
On March 23 2012 08:05 Seviro wrote: It depends, on day 1 it is bad since we have no informations whatsoever if we don'T lynch someone, but later in the game a no lynch can be better than a mislynch. It does seems scummy but at time it can be good (rarely tho).
But my point was not to no lynch, it was that you can vote no-lynch like 6-8 hour before the deadline if you don't know who to vote for and then with the discussion that follow you can make up your mind.
Are you suddenly suggesting to no lynch? We've pretty much all agreed that not lynching day 1 is bad because of lack of information. People should vote on suspicion regardless.
On March 23 2012 08:10 Seviro wrote: EBWOP, If we agree that everyone should have a vote posted at a set time before the deadline (since no one disagreed right now let's say 8 to 6 hour) we can then make a better choice for the lynch of this day and if someone fail to do so then he is most likely to be proposed as a lunch candidate.
But now I think everyone should post what are their thought about that, if they agree etc. If we want to be able to win this, we need to work together and to not let 1 or 2 people take the control of the town.
Continuing on with something that really isn't that crucial and if people agree to 8 hours instead of 6 there's nothing groundbreaking that will be decided.
Based on all these posts that pretty much say nothing at all and seem to want to blend in most of all which seems like scum behaviour to me, though it's just a suspicion, I'm voting for Seviro for now. At worst it'll spark some more discussion.
##Vote Seviro
Wants to pressure for lurker lynch when this is pretty much established in town, the whole paragraph goes on about how lurking is bad which has pretty much been established already. Somewhat defends lurkers in the same post which is odd.
I already answered what I meant by that, pressuring and lynching are two different thing. Pressuring is forcing them to post by asking them directly their opinion on a subject so that we can more precisely find who is scum and who is not. A scum under pressure is most likely to post than a town in my opinion.
Agrees with another townie to gain cred, this is a trend in Seviro's posts; rarely comes up with any own ideas and mostly agrees with other townies to 'blend in'. Also jumps on the against the 1 hour bandwagon which is fairly obvious. Long post basically stating the obvious and agreeing with other people.
Ok, so I can't agree with anyone that's what you're saying? I mean I wasn'T online after Nova question and Froggy kind of answered him in my place and I just pointed out that it was indeed what I meant.
On March 23 2012 04:54 froggynoddy wrote: What I have been saying (and I think what Seviro is saying), is to be able to analyse behaviour you need to get actions and reactions from people. The analysis then has to be correct in of itself. The decision to lynch should therefore be based on 1. information (gathered by pressuring, amongst other ways) 2. Correct analysis. But without 1. we shall never be able to do 2. And therefore any decisions to lynch will be less strong.
These are exactly the type of contributions that scum is fine with doing, as they don't really 'help' the town in any way. The Rise of Fenix train is going nicely, which if he's just a bad townie is fine for mafia.
Ok, so now I'm suspicious because i'm not badwagonning? I don'T really see your point here.
Are you suddenly suggesting to no lynch? We've pretty much all agreed that not lynching day 1 is bad because of lack of information. People should vote on suspicion regardless.
Way to miss the point, I won't bother explaining again since what you quoted was clear and you just seem to want to make me look scummy by making me say what I didn'T say.
Continuing on with something that really isn't that crucial and if people agree to 8 hours instead of 6 there's nothing groundbreaking that will be decided.
It is not that crucial but if we can come up with something like this we will be a lot more organized and will have time to discuss all the votes before the actual deadline. Once again I explained it very well.
Now that you put yourself on the stage, let's take a look at you.
On March 22 2012 21:12 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Hey guys, just woke up, sorry for not replying yet. 3am is quite late for us Europeans, but I'm here now This is my third or fourth game of TL Mafia, I've organized Insane Mafia before which was an absolutely insane game and a ton of fun. I'm also pro lynching someone on day 1 as lynches are the only reliable way to kill mafia. We don't know if there's a vigilante in the game, but I don't think we can count on it. We should also treat any roleclaims with suspicion. Don't blindly follow anyone that claims, or anyone that makes long posts. Think for yourself and don't jump on bandwagons. From what I've seen in other games this is generally what kills towns. Mafia is by definition more organized so they're better at bandwagoning, though a smart mafia will never have everyone voting on one person. However, if there's any risk of a mafia getting lynched they'll normally switch their votes off so anyone that switches votes at the last minute should be viewed with suspicion.
Introductory post, little content else than the obvious and some WIFOM toward the end
On March 23 2012 05:24 Rise Of Fenix wrote: Day one lynching is always a solid plan to move foreward, but no real tells are showing thus far. I will likely post my thoughts about 1 hour before the deadline. But not lynching anyone only benefits the scum.
Why would you not post your thoughts now instead of one hour before the deadline? We could actually discuss them if you post it now, there's no reason not to.
On of the first to tell what everyone else will say after. (People can have the same opinion, it'S not necessary badwagonning)
On March 24 2012 01:22 Artanis[Xp] wrote: @Nova_Terra however bandwagoning on everything and making large posts that basically say "I agree" IS scummy, because the length of the post can make it seem like you're contributing when in fact you're not saying anything new. Sure, others have done this as well, but I haven't seen anyone else make such long posts without any real 'content'.
I agree that my posts are kind of long but just because you are missing every point that I make it doesn't mean that I have no content.
On March 24 2012 02:07 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Also, to my defense, if I was mafia I'd probably have a large accusatory post proofread by the other mafia. The chance of a slip like that happening in that case are much smaller. And to correct myself, when I said town I simply meant all players, not specifically town aligned.
This defense is not valid as it is only WIFOM. (It's a newbie game after all)
Now I hate to do that, but I need to vote on you for now. In your case on me you were purposely (or not) missing all my point to make me look scummy and that for me is a lot more scummy. so for now
Oh, I really just think now that Fenix is playing poorly or just doesn't care enough to put enough time on the game. But I'll give him the chance to step up his play because I really think he is town.
You could be trying to gain credit as a mafia and could also be a mafia that doesn’t want to look like he’s jumping on the Fenix wagon. By posting this analys you’d be killing two birds with one stone. As I said though, this is only really slight suspicion (around 55-45 mafia-townie, in my eyes) and even I is more suspicous at the moment, given my inactivity on the past couple days.
WIFOM argument, I could be a townie just trying to get some analysis done to move the town forward too by posting some actual discussion. If posting analysis on a player now makes you suspicious just because you're posting analysis rather than it's contents, I don't think this town is going to go forward much, and that you find that suspicious is something I find suspicious.
Ha don't get me wrong, I love the fact that you're actually analysing and putting actual material for discussion. But, while what you said is true (he is indeed not putting a lot of content in its posts), I don't see it as scumy enough to be lynch worthy at all. Although after think over it again, it's true that what I said was WIFOM, which isn't exactly telling (I'll make sure to not make that kind of mistake again) But it kinda add up with your "slip up", so still 55-45 in my eyes.
On March 24 2012 03:14 Seviro wrote: Oh, I really just think now that Fenix is playing poorly or just doesn't care enough to put enough time on the game. But I'll give him the chance to step up his play because I really think he is town.
Why do you think he is 'really' town? At best its 50/50 as he has not contributed anything to town.
My strongest read at the minute is Mementos as leaning town. His analysis seems well thought out and his pressuring good.
Rise Of Fenix is either scum or not useful to town. I'm not going to repeat the case against him but it seems to be the strongest we have. At the moment a lynch seems beneficial to town as if we don't lynch we have less information and theres a risk day 2 is spent on day 1 stuff.
##Vote Rise Of Fenix
If Rise of Fenix contributes something before I go to bed (in 3-4hrs or so) then I will strongly consider switching my vote to virtu due to his inactivity.
On March 24 2012 03:14 Seviro wrote: Oh, I really just think now that Fenix is playing poorly or just doesn't care enough to put enough time on the game. But I'll give him the chance to step up his play because I really think he is town.
Why do you think he is 'really' town? At best its 50/50 as he has not contributed anything to town.
I think that if he was mafia, his fellow scum would have helped him in the background so that he don't look so suspicious. For now I think he is just bad and as I said, i'm willing to give him a chance to step up his play. I shouldn't have said that I think that he is really town, more like I don't see him being more scummy than anyone else right now.
On March 24 2012 03:14 Seviro wrote: Oh, I really just think now that Fenix is playing poorly or just doesn't care enough to put enough time on the game. But I'll give him the chance to step up his play because I really think he is town.
Why do you think he is 'really' town? At best its 50/50 as he has not contributed anything to town.
I think that if he was mafia, his fellow scum would have helped him in the background so that he don't look so suspicious. For now I think he is just bad and as I said, i'm willing to give him a chance to step up his play. I shouldn't have said that I think that he is really town, more like I don't see him being more scummy than anyone else right now.
Assuming that scum proofread is silly, we can only go by what happens in this thread.
He essentially had zero content in a few filler posts. Then he voted on a bandwagon without activity. BUT the slip from Artanis[Xp] is too severe. Mementoss pointed it out, but it is worth repeating:
On March 23 2012 23:55 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Agrees with another townie to gain cred, this is a trend in Seviro's posts; rarely comes up with any own ideas and mostly agrees with other townies to 'blend in'. Also jumps on the against the 1 hour bandwagon which is fairly obvious. Long post basically stating the obvious and agreeing with other people.
1. ONLY scum know who the townies are. This is a simply point, they know who is mafia, therefore they know who isnt mafia. Even if a DT checks someone, the person could have been framed, or the miller, or the GF or whatever. The ONLY way to know someone is town is TO BE mafia.
2. To call this a newbie mistake I think is incorrect. Freudian slip is more likely. There is a natural hesitation in everyone's mind as they play this game. To post with certainty that someone is a Town, even in 3 words, is a massive slip.
On March 24 2012 01:58 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Oops, yeah that looks bad. That was a bad town play. What I meant was someone making a play that is obviously town favored. I worded it poorly. I believe it's a slip that both townies and scum can make with little effort though.
3. His only defense is "oops, my bad, scum slips dont happen since I would vet every post". Doesn't convince me. If this were true, 90% of scum slips wouldn't happen!
This is too severe to overlook! sc2system is a good lynch, I still don't think Fenix is a great lynch, but Artanis is the clear day1 lynch in my mind!
On March 24 2012 03:10 Seviro wrote: I already answered what I meant by that, pressuring and lynching are two different thing. Pressuring is forcing them to post by asking them directly their opinion on a subject so that we can more precisely find who is scum and who is not. A scum under pressure is most likely to post than a town in my opinion.
If you already indicate all you want to do is pressure and you want to "pressure" lurkers yet are unwilling to go through with the lynching, then there is no real pressure to speak of. They can be silent and you'd still refuse to lynch them is what I'm getting out of this.
Ok, so I can't agree with anyone that's what you're saying? I mean I wasn'T online after Nova question and Froggy kind of answered him in my place and I just pointed out that it was indeed what I meant.
You're welcome to agree with people, but you didn't expand on anything while filling up a post that really said nothing but "I agree", in effect cluttering up the thread. I must say that I skipped over froggy's post though when searching for your posts. He did put it nicely.
On March 23 2012 04:54 froggynoddy wrote: What I have been saying (and I think what Seviro is saying), is to be able to analyse behaviour you need to get actions and reactions from people. The analysis then has to be correct in of itself. The decision to lynch should therefore be based on 1. information (gathered by pressuring, amongst other ways) 2. Correct analysis. But without 1. we shall never be able to do 2. And therefore any decisions to lynch will be less strong.
Ok, so now I'm suspicious because i'm not badwagonning? I don'T really see your point here.
What? In this post, you WERE bandwagoning. The train to lynch Rise of Fenix was going nicely, and if you're scum and he's not then it's beneficial to ride the train to his destruction.
Way to miss the point, I won't bother explaining again since what you quoted was clear and you just seem to want to make me look scummy by making me say what I didn'T say.
Chainsaw arguments are great. You're suggesting that a no lynch can be fine past day 1 and of course a mislynch will be worse then a no lynch. Problem is you don't know if it'll be a mislynch beforehand, and every day you don't lynch someone is a day that mafia can kill someone. The only time a no lynch is really a good idea is during mylo.
It is not that crucial but if we can come up with something like this we will be a lot more organized and will have time to discuss all the votes before the actual deadline. Once again I explained it very well.
Whether people vote 6 or 8 hours before the deadline really isn't that important. It's nothing to condemn anyone over but I don't consider it a valuable post by any means, 6 hours would've done the same job.
Now that you put yourself on the stage, let's take a look at you.
Gladly.
Introductory post, little content else than the obvious and some WIFOM toward the end
I explained my background which was asked of me and gave some clues regarding what the mafia might and might not do. You could consider it WIFOM, but I do think it's very likely that the mafia isn't stupid enough to vote on one person. Just trying to make sure everyone has their thinking caps on.
On March 23 2012 05:24 Rise Of Fenix wrote: Day one lynching is always a solid plan to move foreward, but no real tells are showing thus far. I will likely post my thoughts about 1 hour before the deadline. But not lynching anyone only benefits the scum.
Why would you not post your thoughts now instead of one hour before the deadline? We could actually discuss them if you post it now, there's no reason not to.
On of the first to tell what everyone else will say after. (People can have the same opinion, it'S not necessary badwagonning)
I was one of the first to say this and I think it was a neccesary thing to say. It is a scummy action and we need that information as soon as possible. It's in no spam or detrimental to town.
I agree that my posts are kind of long but just because you are missing every point that I make it doesn't mean that I have no content.
All points you've made have been repeats of what other people have said, other than wanting to have 8 instead of 6 hours. You're not making any points, you're repeating those of others.
This defense is not valid as it is only WIFOM. (It's a newbie game after all)
A defense is as valid as likely as you believe it to be. Mafia's advantage is in organisation, not using that organisation would just be silly. There's a line between WIFOM and common sense, and I think this goes into the common sense department.
Now I hate to do that, but I need to vote on you for now. In your case on me you were purposely (or not) missing all my point to make me look scummy and that for me is a lot more scummy. so for now
##Vote: Artanis[Xp]
Eh, okay, but I think your reasoning is weak for it and I don't think you've made any real points of your own whereas I have.
On March 24 2012 05:08 michaelthe wrote: I was 100% ready to come and vote for sc2system.
He essentially had zero content in a few filler posts. Then he voted on a bandwagon without activity. BUT the slip from Artanis[Xp] is too severe. Mementoss pointed it out, but it is worth repeating:
On March 23 2012 23:55 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Agrees with another townie to gain cred, this is a trend in Seviro's posts; rarely comes up with any own ideas and mostly agrees with other townies to 'blend in'. Also jumps on the against the 1 hour bandwagon which is fairly obvious. Long post basically stating the obvious and agreeing with other people.
1. ONLY scum know who the townies are. This is a simply point, they know who is mafia, therefore they know who isnt mafia. Even if a DT checks someone, the person could have been framed, or the miller, or the GF or whatever. The ONLY way to know someone is town is TO BE mafia.
2. To call this a newbie mistake I think is incorrect. Freudian slip is more likely. There is a natural hesitation in everyone's mind as they play this game. To post with certainty that someone is a Town, even in 3 words, is a massive slip.
On March 24 2012 01:58 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Oops, yeah that looks bad. That was a bad town play. What I meant was someone making a play that is obviously town favored. I worded it poorly. I believe it's a slip that both townies and scum can make with little effort though.
3. His only defense is "oops, my bad, scum slips dont happen since I would vet every post". Doesn't convince me. If this were true, 90% of scum slips wouldn't happen!
This is too severe to overlook! sc2system is a good lynch, I still don't think Fenix is a great lynch, but Artanis is the clear day1 lynch in my mind!
##Vote: Artanis[Xp]
I already added that what I meant with town was the entirety of everyone playing, that includes citizens and mafia. I misspoke which was a slip, and is easily done by both mafia and town. Lynching someone on a slip rather than solid analysis seems silly to me, though that's easy to say being on the chopping block and all.
@Artanis, I don't believe your defense, but its not enough to warrant a day 1 lynch. Now that I have given Seviro a chance to defend, your case against him seemed weak to me. It was basically him discussing things that were going on in the thread, while they were important, don't see how this is scummy.
@Nova_Terra: Why are you so quick to defend his(Aranis) slip? >_> Your meta is so off of last game. Also didn't you bring up voting deadline or at least agree to it? Where is your vote?
@Seviro: I like this point against Artanis you made, that his case using your quotes to make things look scummy out of context, but in context they actually weren't. Making a weak case just to say you made a case is scummy, but not enough to warrant a day 1 lynch IMO. Just because he actually is active and responding back to counter points.
Right now I would be happy with a lynch on either of these two:
Sc2System, or Rise Of Fenix
RoF because of the case I made on him, and him never responding. However it seems like no one is around to defend him, or point a case away from him, which seems odd for scum. Safe lynch because his quality of post is terrible, even if he flips green.
Sc2System: A lurker. Has not said anything of value. Maybe not the biggest lurker post wise, but the way he posted just seems really scummy to me. Jumps into game with a couple of posts. Then bandwagons on what looks like the majority vote for the day. He bandwagons at a time which seems to try to be non-suspicious, does not iniate the vote, and does not wait till the end to vote.
I love playing games like this becuase I find it funny how you can counter every logic and you can confuse people.
The hell? I just noticed this, why the hell would you want to confuse people? ...Unless you are a scum?
Anyway, not going to vote for Seviro or Artanis at this point. Need more information to make a better judgement. But, the case on Seviro is weak and Artanis seems scummy.
@ Everyone. I have to leave in 30 minutes and then I will be gone for the day. So is it going to be sc2system or Fenix?
sc2system feels like the safer bet to me. Scummy post that I point out above, and then hardcore lurker basically since.
What? In this post, you WERE bandwagoning. The train to lynch Rise of Fenix was going nicely, and if you're scum and he's not then it's beneficial to ride the train to his destruction.
Here is the said post
On March 23 2012 07:58 Seviro wrote: there's no haste to vote yet, it's just that you said you would wait about and hour before the deadline before your vote, which is really late.
It will be best for everyone if we say something like 8 to 6 hour before the deadline we should post what is our vote at that moment. At this point we can discuss and see what would be the best for the town. If at the time of the "soft" deadline you have no one that you think is more suspicious than the other you can always vote for no-lynch and change your vote later.
Where in the world do you see in this post that I am following the Rise Of Fenix train? Hell i'm like the only one that is trying to defend him.
On March 24 2012 05:36 Rise Of Fenix wrote: give me another chance, please. I will make up my terrible play today tommorow.
Dude you still have about 6 hour left before today's deadline. At the rate thi is going you won'T be alive tomorrow anyway, if you want to defend yourself and step up your play it is today. With a post like this it seems like you don'T even try so we might as well lynch you right now.
Meh, I'm leaving my vote on RoF. His disregard to defend or at least talk worries me. I'll catch up tonight when I get home, hopefully someone (and hopefully a scum), is lynched tonight.
I am withdrawing my vote for Rise Of Fenix because I said in my post that if he starts caring more about the game that I will withdraw it.
That is one of the reasons I posted my vote very early so he can read it and decide If he is going to try to help the townies. If I am right the mafia will not all vote for the same person becuase that would make them stand out. I have seen some posts before when people accuse other people and others agree but not all of them vote, and they dont even accuse anyone else after that. (Hope you understand if you need a explenation of what I tried to say just ask [english is not my first language]).
##Vote: No Lynch
And I did write that I like to confuse people but that is only when they use invalid arguments that ruin the game. For example if we all vote on X becuase Y was killed by the mafia and Y accused X the previous day. This is an invalid argument so this is when I like to inverse the logic and I say: What if the mafia wanted us to think that and they get a double kill, or what if they knew that we knew that and they just did the first step. Confused? Good. And this only works with invalid arguments.
I want to point out that it'S been a bit more than 22 hour since virtu last post. He did said he'll post today but I have yet to see anything from him. I think for now i'll put my vote on him until he comes out.
On March 24 2012 06:00 Seviro wrote: I want to point out that it'S been a bit more than 22 hour since virtu last post. He did said he'll post today but I have yet to see anything from him. I think for now i'll put my vote on him until he comes out.
##unvote: Artanis[Xp] ##Vote: Virtu
ok if you say so:
##Vote: Virtu
but if he posts a good post that is helpfull I will unvote him.
Making a post now, had an awful day at work which was extended by 3 hours and i would usually get chance to post at work but no chance today. Inc, 30mins or so
On March 24 2012 06:05 virtu wrote: Making a post now, had an awful day at work which was extended by 3 hours and i would usually get chance to post at work but no chance today. Inc, 30mins or so
I'm keeping my vote on Artanis. I still think Freudian slip, in a big way.
That said, the deadline is approaching and a lot of people seem intent on Fenix or Sc2system:
On March 24 2012 05:30 Gossemerr wrote: @ Everyone. I have to leave in 30 minutes and then I will be gone for the day. So is it going to be sc2system or Fenix?
Sc2System was lurking hard for the first 24 hours. Then he came out with a bandwagon vote for fenix. He changed it today:
On March 24 2012 05:58 sc2system wrote: I am withdrawing my vote for Rise Of Fenix because I said in my post that if he starts caring more about the game that I will withdraw it.
##Vote: No Lynch
It's pretty clear to me that Fenix isn't doing a great job, as someone pointed out, he promised to play better tomorrow, despite several hours still available today. That's pure silliness. But it's moreso silliness to accept that defense...
Within TWO MINUTES of sc2systems vote, seviro pointed out virtu hasn't been posting in 22 hours. Serviro voted for vitru, and ONE MINUTE LATER, we get this:
On March 24 2012 06:00 Seviro wrote: I want to point out that it'S been a bit more than 22 hour since virtu last post. He did said he'll post today but I have yet to see anything from him. I think for now i'll put my vote on him until he comes out.
##unvote: Artanis[Xp] ##Vote: Virtu
ok if you say so:
##Vote: Virtu
but if he posts a good post that is helpfull I will unvote him.
"If you say so"? Really?
If I were mafia, I'd stick this guy in my pocket and tell him who to lynch tomorrow... Fenix has been playing poorly. But he made repeated mistakes on things like the rules and terms. This seems typical of a noob. Sc2system has lurked hard, then jumped on bandwagons, then changed bandwagons, accepted terrible defenses, all in the course of a few minutes. Much worse imo.
All of that said, I still am leaving my vote on Artanis. I think the slip was a Freudian slip. This slip is considered to be the biggest mistake in Mafia, I don't think we should ignore it, and I don't think we should accept the defense that was offered.
On March 24 2012 05:24 Mementoss wrote: @Artanis, I don't believe your defense, but its not enough to warrant a day 1 lynch. Now that I have given Seviro a chance to defend, your case against him seemed weak to me. It was basically him discussing things that were going on in the thread, while they were important, don't see how this is scummy.
I am so sorry, i got caught up in a game of quake. I really feel bad. Mementoss, the main thing thats changed is that i am trying hard to not let behaviors bother me and change the way i play. I took a lot of flak last time around, and while i am still trying to be active and helpful i dont want to go all out aggression because i will get too caught up like last time. even to the point of deluding myself that i was totally right. I defended artanis because i think that it was an innocent mistake, albeit a bad one. For my reasons previously stated, i am voting for Rise of Fenix. his play is not helping us at all, and i do not find artanis or anyone else (until i analyze the filters hard tomorrow morning) more suspicious. ##Vote: Rise of Fenix
I dont think Artanis is the right vote for today. Its not much to go off of, and Day 1 lynch is usually better to go for a safe bet. I think Sc2system is a safe bet, all he does is hop in out of nowhere and bandwagon.
At this rate we are heading for a no-lynch town. We really need to just come together and agree on someone.
Just came back from work, was reading a bit at work as well but I didn't keep notes. I was waiting on a reply by Fenix which I guess never came. I'll grab dinner then post my analysis in... I hope 1 hour or so.
On March 24 2012 06:49 Mementoss wrote: I dont think Artanis is the right vote for today. Its not much to go off of, and Day 1 lynch is usually better to go for a safe bet. I think Sc2system is a safe bet, all he does is hop in out of nowhere and bandwagon.
At this rate we are heading for a no-lynch town. We really need to just come together and agree on someone.
On March 24 2012 06:51 Mementoss wrote: We know who should be around now basing on recent posts/ said they were going to post:
Nova, Mementoss, Virtu is supposed to be posting, michael, sc2system(maybe)
I somehow misread the voting rule as whoever has the most votes at the end of the day gets lynched, I don't know how I read that since the zbot states everytime you need 7...
I will indeed be around until the deadline (or just before, I think its a bit past my bedtime). I will change my vote to sc2system if no one else goes for Artanis. I will vote for Fenix near deadline if necessary, but I have already stated my lynch candidate preference order.
So this morning on the way to work I read the posts from our friends across the pond, and at the time my top 3 suspects were
1. Rise of Fenix 2. sc2system 3. Ninja4ever
I'm going to ignore the other discussion (Artanis on Seviro, Seviro on Artanis) because I feel the original case is a weak case at best, especially for D1, the "defence and return case" back onto Artanis is a bit suspect, becuase if you're playing town you'd only want to defend yourself, not throw an accusation back and potentially enter an argument that is going to waste time and space in the thread. However, there are definitely better options at this point in time.
I'll give my views but with a large gap between my last post and this, and it being so close to the end of the day I will be unfortunately repeating quite a few already made points, unavoidable on day1.
Rise of Fenix
IMO the best case for the poster with the least content, serious amounts of 2-3 line posts and hardly any content. Stuff like this for example is absolutely useless, and either has been said previously to him saying it or just has no place:
On March 23 2012 07:35 Rise Of Fenix wrote: I prefer not to vote now because I think that until everyone has given their opinion, everyone else deserves equal suspicion.
On March 23 2012 07:39 Rise Of Fenix wrote: Trust me, my vote would be at you, but I will give everyone the benefit of the doubt. There is no unlynch in this game right? All lynch votes are final.
On March 24 2012 05:36 Rise Of Fenix wrote: give me another chance, please. I will make up my terrible play today tommorow.
Along with the fact one of his first statements was him saying someone is town purely because they made the first post in the game, and the fact that there is almost 30 hours between two of his most content filled posts that are even remotely useful to the game, makes him a major suspect for me.
On March 23 2012 14:21 Rise Of Fenix wrote: My points: I dont think I was thinking straight, and reading over my posts I have really been really playing terribly. Im sorry.
However, I think it is time for a little bit of analysis.
As I was suspicious of Michaelthe earlier, and then was backed up by froggy. Michael the never defended himself. I think that this is reason enough to lynch him, but until he defends himself I wont.
Apologises for his terrible play, then says it's "time for analysis", which consists of an entire line and a half.
Conclusion; I feel we'll get the most information out of a Rise of Fenix lynch, even if he does flip town. I think he's scum though.
sc2system
Shows VERY similar play to Rise of Fenix, low quality/content posts, lots of avoiding and excuses. Two things that are really irking me is how he's been throwing his vote around, and how quickly he dropped off Rise of Fenix, even though others were keeping the pressure on, as we see here;
Even though there are other people that don’t contribute or contribute as much as Rise of Fenix I feel that he should be lynched the first day. He does try to “contribute” but the problem is he seemingly tries to help but ends up confusing the town. I would redraw my vote if he can come up with something that puts town in the right direction instead of confusing us more. I am not contributing a lot because most of the things I want to say are already said and I don’t want to be accusing people on bad arguments because that just ruins the game and complicates it.
##Vote: Rise of Fenix
His "Awesome" post that we'd waited over 12 hours for since he first said he was going to give us a decent view on something, and all he does is lightly talk about rise of fenix's play, but the bolded part really annoys me. If you're using your vote to apply pressure, you don't say you'll withdraw it at the first sign of "townie" play, said pressured person can just jump on the bandwagon, or if the bandwagon is on them just try and divert attention to a lurker. Extremely suspicious.
I am withdrawing my vote for Rise Of Fenix because I said in my post that if he starts caring more about the game that I will withdraw it.
That is one of the reasons I posted my vote very early so he can read it and decide If he is going to try to help the townies. If I am right the mafia will not all vote for the same person becuase that would make them stand out. I have seen some posts before when people accuse other people and others agree but not all of them vote, and they dont even accuse anyone else after that. (Hope you understand if you need a explenation of what I tried to say just ask [english is not my first language]).
##Vote: No Lynch
And I did write that I like to confuse people but that is only when they use invalid arguments that ruin the game. For example if we all vote on X becuase Y was killed by the mafia and Y accused X the previous day. This is an invalid argument so this is when I like to inverse the logic and I say: What if the mafia wanted us to think that and they get a double kill, or what if they knew that we knew that and they just did the first step. Confused? Good. And this only works with invalid arguments.
Hope that is all I wanted to say...
All this post does is withdraw his vote on Rise of Fenix because he apparently made some town-like posts. but reading his filter, I can't see anything town-like, and others have been keeping up the pressure on him.
The stupid amount of vote switching is also extremely suspect as we see here, after the rise of the fenix vote and the no lynch we have;
On March 24 2012 06:00 Seviro wrote: I want to point out that it'S been a bit more than 22 hour since virtu last post. He did said he'll post today but I have yet to see anything from him. I think for now i'll put my vote on him until he comes out.
##unvote: Artanis[Xp] ##Vote: Virtu
ok if you say so:
##Vote: Virtu
but if he posts a good post that is helpfull I will unvote him.
This last one for me, is huge. I've bolded the main thing I found suspect, His FOURTH vote or unvote was made PURELY because someone else changed their vote. He could quite easily have put "this is correct, virtu hasn't posted in X hours, so i will also change my vote", but all we get is an "ok if you say so?"
Also, Seviro's post at 06:00, sc2system's at 06:03? a bandwagon post 3minutes later, seems extremely scummy to me, especially considering he has had large periods of inactivity/useless posting.
Conclusion: I feel there is a better case for lynching sc2sytem than there is rise of fenix
Ninja4ever
I think this is the weakest case, the only substantial point I can see is that he does a lot talking about Lynching Lurkers, and a lot of repeating already covered topics. Much weaker than Rise of Fenix though.
Conclusion: One to keep an eye on, but fine for now.
Personally I think both sc2system and Rise of Fenix are both scum, but my vote is going to;
EBWOP: I will change my vote to Rise of Fenix if it's needed for majority, nolynch would be pretty terrible right now. Forgot to add this, just wanted to get my post out there took a while to construct.
It seems that we don't really have any lurker left to be honest, with virtu posting soon every one seem to be active at least to some extent. We should really start voting based on who we find the most suspect. I already voted sc2system based on its inactivity, saying I'd switch to RoF if he'd become active enough. The thing is he did post more but in a very scumy way. (the confuse people part is very relevant). Therefore I'm keeping my vote for now. Although, as mementoss said (who looks the greenest of us all in my eyes) we really need to set on someone if we want to get a lynch
On March 24 2012 07:02 virtu wrote: So this morning on the way to work I read the posts from our friends across the pond, and at the time my top 3 suspects were
1. Rise of Fenix 2. sc2system 3. Ninja4ever
##Vote: sc2system
Was this list purely based on inactivity ? If not, would you mind telling what made me into your list to begin with, so I can defend myself ?
Ninja4ever
I think this is the weakest case, the only substantial point I can see is that he does a lot talking about Lynching Lurkers, and a lot of repeating already covered topics. Much weaker than Rise of Fenix though.
Conclusion: One to keep an eye on, but fine for now.
Well, we're on the same boat my friend : we came up late and had to speak on subjects that were discussed pretty much to death before us. kinda hard to add new content in this case. About the lynching lurker part, that's pretty much our day one plan (pressure lyncher or someone really suspect), seemed natural to me to at least give my thoughts on it. Hope it helped clear things a bit.
I've read all the posts since I was gone, and since there's no way Seviro will get a majority there's no reason to vote him. RoF seems to be willing to try stuff, sc2system hasn't provided us with anything as far as I can see. However, due to no one coming to his defense I don't think we'd gain much information out of a lynch of sc2system either. There's been some soft defenses on Rise of Fenix which could give us more leads if he's red, therefore, ##Unvote: Seviro ##Vote: Rise of Fenix
Okay, now that Virtu posted his promised post and I am somewhat satified with it for now i'll change my vote.
With Fenix's last post I think I will go with him. If he can come up with something before the deadline maybe I'll reconsiders it. I tried to defend him because I thought his bad plays were just a case of him being new or whatever but now screw it, if he doesn't help yourself we might as well get rid of him
Wow, yeah. Its rediculous that rise popped in to say 1 sentence begging us to let him live because he will make it up to us tomorrow, and then didnt even vote
On March 24 2012 07:02 virtu wrote: So this morning on the way to work I read the posts from our friends across the pond, and at the time my top 3 suspects were
1. Rise of Fenix 2. sc2system 3. Ninja4ever
##Vote: sc2system
Was this list purely based on inactivity ? If not, would you mind telling what made me into your list to begin with, so I can defend myself ?
I think this is the weakest case, the only substantial point I can see is that he does a lot talking about Lynching Lurkers, and a lot of repeating already covered topics. Much weaker than Rise of Fenix though.
Conclusion: One to keep an eye on, but fine for now.
Well, we're on the same boat my friend : we came up late and had to speak on subjects that were discussed pretty much to death before us. kinda hard to add new content in this case. About the lynching lurker part, that's pretty much our day one plan (pressure lyncher or someone really suspect), seemed natural to me to at least give my thoughts on it. Hope it helped clear things a bit.
Kind of. It was a mixture of Bad posting quality and inactivity, but you were pretty much on the list due to inactivity at the time. The only reason I would still consider you is because of your wishy-washy posting around subjects that have already been brought up. Instead of doing this, you should accept the fact that a lot of things are going to be repeats, and just write your thoughts down in your own words, with your own thought process. You might help someone else see things in a different light etc. If you don't then you just look scummy, which for all I know, you could be, time will tell.
Also on D2 i'd like to jump back to the Artanis/Seviro thing, i feel it kinda came out no-where, might have been pressure for the sake of mixing things up and be pro-town but i'm not convinced.
On March 24 2012 07:02 virtu wrote: So this morning on the way to work I read the posts from our friends across the pond, and at the time my top 3 suspects were
1. Rise of Fenix 2. sc2system 3. Ninja4ever
##Vote: sc2system
Was this list purely based on inactivity ? If not, would you mind telling what made me into your list to begin with, so I can defend myself ?
Ninja4ever
I think this is the weakest case, the only substantial point I can see is that he does a lot talking about Lynching Lurkers, and a lot of repeating already covered topics. Much weaker than Rise of Fenix though.
Conclusion: One to keep an eye on, but fine for now.
Well, we're on the same boat my friend : we came up late and had to speak on subjects that were discussed pretty much to death before us. kinda hard to add new content in this case. About the lynching lurker part, that's pretty much our day one plan (pressure lyncher or someone really suspect), seemed natural to me to at least give my thoughts on it. Hope it helped clear things a bit.
Kind of. It was a mixture of Bad posting quality and inactivity, but you were pretty much on the list due to inactivity at the time. The only reason I would still consider you is because of your wishy-washy posting around subjects that have already been brought up. Instead of doing this, you should accept the fact that a lot of things are going to be repeats, and just write your thoughts down in your own words, with your own thought process. You might help someone else see things in a different light etc. If you don't then you just look scummy, which for all I know, you could be, time will tell.
Also on D2 i'd like to jump back to the Artanis/Seviro thing, i feel it kinda came out no-where, might have been pressure for the sake of mixing things up and be pro-town but i'm not convinced.
Haha, so when we repeat too much stuff that makes us look scummy (see seviro case), and the same goes when we don't ? Seems quite problematic to me ! :p
What? In this post, you WERE bandwagoning. The train to lynch Rise of Fenix was going nicely, and if you're scum and he's not then it's beneficial to ride the train to his destruction.
On March 23 2012 07:58 Seviro wrote: there's no haste to vote yet, it's just that you said you would wait about and hour before the deadline before your vote, which is really late.
It will be best for everyone if we say something like 8 to 6 hour before the deadline we should post what is our vote at that moment. At this point we can discuss and see what would be the best for the town. If at the time of the "soft" deadline you have no one that you think is more suspicious than the other you can always vote for no-lynch and change your vote later.
Where in the world do you see in this post that I am following the Rise Of Fenix train? Hell i'm like the only one that is trying to defend him.
Didn't respond to this yet, but I believe I misread it the first time. You're right that you didn't join the train; you didn't pick a side. Apologies for faulty analysis on this part.
On March 24 2012 07:02 virtu wrote: So this morning on the way to work I read the posts from our friends across the pond, and at the time my top 3 suspects were
1. Rise of Fenix 2. sc2system 3. Ninja4ever
##Vote: sc2system
Was this list purely based on inactivity ? If not, would you mind telling what made me into your list to begin with, so I can defend myself ?
Ninja4ever
I think this is the weakest case, the only substantial point I can see is that he does a lot talking about Lynching Lurkers, and a lot of repeating already covered topics. Much weaker than Rise of Fenix though.
Conclusion: One to keep an eye on, but fine for now.
Well, we're on the same boat my friend : we came up late and had to speak on subjects that were discussed pretty much to death before us. kinda hard to add new content in this case. About the lynching lurker part, that's pretty much our day one plan (pressure lyncher or someone really suspect), seemed natural to me to at least give my thoughts on it. Hope it helped clear things a bit.
Kind of. It was a mixture of Bad posting quality and inactivity, but you were pretty much on the list due to inactivity at the time. The only reason I would still consider you is because of your wishy-washy posting around subjects that have already been brought up. Instead of doing this, you should accept the fact that a lot of things are going to be repeats, and just write your thoughts down in your own words, with your own thought process. You might help someone else see things in a different light etc. If you don't then you just look scummy, which for all I know, you could be, time will tell.
Also on D2 i'd like to jump back to the Artanis/Seviro thing, i feel it kinda came out no-where, might have been pressure for the sake of mixing things up and be pro-town but i'm not convinced.
Haha, so when we repeat too much stuff that makes us look scummy (see seviro case), and the same goes when we don't ? Seems quite problematic to me ! :p
I've already said that i felt the Seviro was weak, and yes it is problematic but that's a side effect of day1. This is why i've concentrated on the two people we have other reasons to look at, and not you who was purely on there due to at-the-time inactivity.
On March 24 2012 07:02 virtu wrote: So this morning on the way to work I read the posts from our friends across the pond, and at the time my top 3 suspects were
1. Rise of Fenix 2. sc2system 3. Ninja4ever
##Vote: sc2system
Was this list purely based on inactivity ? If not, would you mind telling what made me into your list to begin with, so I can defend myself ?
Ninja4ever
I think this is the weakest case, the only substantial point I can see is that he does a lot talking about Lynching Lurkers, and a lot of repeating already covered topics. Much weaker than Rise of Fenix though.
Conclusion: One to keep an eye on, but fine for now.
Well, we're on the same boat my friend : we came up late and had to speak on subjects that were discussed pretty much to death before us. kinda hard to add new content in this case. About the lynching lurker part, that's pretty much our day one plan (pressure lyncher or someone really suspect), seemed natural to me to at least give my thoughts on it. Hope it helped clear things a bit.
Kind of. It was a mixture of Bad posting quality and inactivity, but you were pretty much on the list due to inactivity at the time. The only reason I would still consider you is because of your wishy-washy posting around subjects that have already been brought up. Instead of doing this, you should accept the fact that a lot of things are going to be repeats, and just write your thoughts down in your own words, with your own thought process. You might help someone else see things in a different light etc. If you don't then you just look scummy, which for all I know, you could be, time will tell.
Also on D2 i'd like to jump back to the Artanis/Seviro thing, i feel it kinda came out no-where, might have been pressure for the sake of mixing things up and be pro-town but i'm not convinced.
Haha, so when we repeat too much stuff that makes us look scummy (see seviro case), and the same goes when we don't ? Seems quite problematic to me ! :p
I've already said that i felt the Seviro was weak, and yes it is problematic but that's a side effect of day1. This is why i've concentrated on the two people we have other reasons to look at, and not you who was purely on there due to at-the-time inactivity.
Don't sweat it, it's only fair.I actually prefer you share your suspicion on me so I can defend myself than keeping them to yourself !
Going to bed right now, I'll be very busy tomorow so don't expect too much posting from me (I'll try to keep up as much as possible though). Have fun guys !
I am keeping my vote on Virtu becuase more than 30 minutes have passed and he did not post. I am staying up for another 30 minutes if he posts a decent post I will unvote. As I said I am trying to get rid of the lurkers.
I know that I am not the best person to play with but I promise that I am a better player in the late game (at least I am so in a card game copy of mafia).
The clock is ticking Virtu you have 19 minutes if you took 1 minute to read this....
We've really got no news on Rise of Fenix so my analysis from my last post about him hasn't changed. Earlier today, I was 50/50 on lynching Fenix or sc2system, since my 3rd top 3 pick (ninja4ever) started posting, but then sc2system started acting... Reaaaally scummy.
I'll point to just one thing: Between his vote for Rise Of Fenix and his vote for No Lynch (due, according to him, to Rise now contributing), Rise Of Fenix has ONLY ONE POST. And it says:
On March 24 2012 05:36 Rise Of Fenix wrote: give me another chance, please. I will make up my terrible play today tommorow.
That's a contribution?! That's even more useless than the rest! I don't know why he chose to vote no lynch at that moment, but his reason makes NO SENSE. Maybe it had to do with him being under attack and trying to make us think he was just a little peaceful guy?
... And then he votes for Virtu out of nowhere. Pure bandwagon jumping, and not one that was going anywhere either way. Virtu hasn't been scummish at all, and while he had a few hours of inactivity, when he posts it at least makes sense.
I don't know if we'd get more info out of a Rise of Fenix lynch, but it doesn't matter to me when I'm getting huuuuuge scumvibes from sc2master.
Note: I haven't vote counted, but I'm still here for a few hours (MLG yay!) and will switch for Rise if we need a majority when the time limit gets near, but I would much prefer to see sc2master lynched.
I'm out for the night, based on sc2systems recent votes he looks like the better pick. But I'd rather get a vote, than a no-lynch. Its hard to get majority to switch. RoF is a good lynch too, since he was scum or awful town, and since he didn't vote he woulda been replaced. And replacements are always a problem to deal with.
On March 24 2012 07:57 BlueyD wrote: Note: I haven't vote counted, but I'm still here for a few hours (MLG yay!) and will switch for Rise if we need a majority when the time limit gets near, but I would much prefer to see sc2master lynched.
I would also prefer this, however some of the people who have voted Rise of Fenix have gone to bed, so I think there's little chance of that. Unless things dramatically change, my vote for tomorrows lynch will be on sc2system anyway, so a rise lynch is better than a nolynch.
On March 24 2012 07:46 virtu wrote: you might want to hit refresh sc2system, i've posted multiple times.
Sorry I hit F5 (refresh but I was clicked out of the window)
I am so sorry =S
And I am not voting to kill Rise Of Fenix even though I would do becuase his comeback is bad.
But I am felling that the mafia is manipulating us and I believe that ROF is the person to kill. I believe that he is a villager so if you want to kill the a person that is lurking but is a villager (i believe) then go ahead. Becuase if we dont kill him that is only a extra person for the mafia to kill. One more thing is that if ROF is mafia it is possible that the mafia are killing one of them so they seem to not to be mafia becuase their vote killed a mafia member.
On March 24 2012 07:02 virtu wrote: So this morning on the way to work I read the posts from our friends across the pond, and at the time my top 3 suspects were
1. Rise of Fenix 2. sc2system 3. Ninja4ever
##Vote: sc2system
Was this list purely based on inactivity ? If not, would you mind telling what made me into your list to begin with, so I can defend myself ?
Ninja4ever
I think this is the weakest case, the only substantial point I can see is that he does a lot talking about Lynching Lurkers, and a lot of repeating already covered topics. Much weaker than Rise of Fenix though.
Conclusion: One to keep an eye on, but fine for now.
Well, we're on the same boat my friend : we came up late and had to speak on subjects that were discussed pretty much to death before us. kinda hard to add new content in this case. About the lynching lurker part, that's pretty much our day one plan (pressure lyncher or someone really suspect), seemed natural to me to at least give my thoughts on it. Hope it helped clear things a bit.
Kind of. It was a mixture of Bad posting quality and inactivity, but you were pretty much on the list due to inactivity at the time. The only reason I would still consider you is because of your wishy-washy posting around subjects that have already been brought up. Instead of doing this, you should accept the fact that a lot of things are going to be repeats, and just write your thoughts down in your own words, with your own thought process. You might help someone else see things in a different light etc. If you don't then you just look scummy, which for all I know, you could be, time will tell.
Also on D2 i'd like to jump back to the Artanis/Seviro thing, i feel it kinda came out no-where, might have been pressure for the sake of mixing things up and be pro-town but i'm not convinced.
Haha, so when we repeat too much stuff that makes us look scummy (see seviro case), and the same goes when we don't ? Seems quite problematic to me ! :p
No, its scummy to add no content. Blindly repeating something is an easy thing for scum to do and appear to be pro-town yet actually give nothing of value to town.
If you agree with someone's reasoning for a lynch than just say so, or if you think something needs clarifying (particularly in these noob games) then do so. The only way to be seen as town is to give town valuable content. Therefore, in a way its neither about repeating someone's content or not its about adding content generally.
This is why my vote stays on RoF (also I think Day 1 no lynch is probably bad for town, for the reasons I set out in my previous post). He had plenty of chances of trying to contribute to town and he hasn't, whether he flips green or red he was still bad for town.
On March 24 2012 07:46 virtu wrote: you might want to hit refresh sc2system, i've posted multiple times.
Sorry I hit F5 (refresh but I was clicked out of the window)
I am so sorry =S
And I am not voting to kill Rise Of Fenix even though I would do becuase his comeback is bad.
But I am felling that the mafia is manipulating us and I believe that ROF is the person to kill. I believe that he is a villager so if you want to kill the a person that is lurking but is a villager (i believe) then go ahead. Becuase if we dont kill him that is only a extra person for the mafia to kill. One more thing is that if ROF is mafia it is possible that the mafia are killing one of them so they seem to not to be mafia becuase their vote killed a mafia member.
I cant decide so I am voting for a no lynch.
##unvote: virtu ##vote: no lynch
No Mafia would ever bus their own team mate day 1, when there is only three mafia -_-
On March 24 2012 07:46 virtu wrote: you might want to hit refresh sc2system, i've posted multiple times.
Sorry I hit F5 (refresh but I was clicked out of the window)
I am so sorry =S
And I am not voting to kill Rise Of Fenix even though I would do becuase his comeback is bad.
But I am felling that the mafia is manipulating us and I believe that ROF is the person to kill. I believe that he is a villager so if you want to kill the a person that is lurking but is a villager (i believe) then go ahead. Becuase if we dont kill him that is only a extra person for the mafia to kill. One more thing is that if ROF is mafia it is possible that the mafia are killing one of them so they seem to not to be mafia becuase their vote killed a mafia member.
I cant decide so I am voting for a no lynch.
##unvote: virtu ##vote: no lynch
No Mafia would ever bus their own team mate day 1, when there is only three mafia -_-
What if that person is not contributing or trying so they are trying to get rid of the weakes link. ???
The decision is clearly Fenix or sc2system tonight. Most people seem to be okay with either.
There seems to be several people who think that sc2system is the better lynch, but are voting Fenix to make us reach the 7-person majority.
I have stated that I will be up at, or just before, the deadline and will change if needed. If you can do the same, and you think sc2system is a better lynch, vote for him. We very clearly are going to lynch one of these two.
yeah, we need to know if we have enough people to change the lynch without risking a no lynch. I'll be also up until the deadline so if we have enough people (5) i'll change it but for now I stay with ROS
I will be around until deadline time, so that's 3 of us. If anyone else is around post, i would much prefer a sc2system lynch, especially with his last post (just wow).
Ok, switching vote & staying up until deadline, if sc2system doesn't have majority by deadline i'll switch back to avoid a no-lynch. It doesn't make much of a difference to be honest, in my eyes they are both dead men walking.
The crew of the ChronoCorp lab emerged from the nightmare of losing GMarshal and prplhz dazed and confused. The worst had happened and all parties were haunted by DoYouHas's last words, "but my comrades will!". Comrades... there were more anarchists in the lab, but no way to tell them from the regular crew and scientists. No way but one. It is common knowledge that all anarchists much curse the establishment with their dying breath. No anarchist would dare go against such a sacred act of their order, regardless of circumstance. It was decided that to root out the anarchists everyone would interview everyone else in an attempt to deduce anarchist leanings, and then vote for who would be put to death each day.
Tensions were high to start with. Everyone's ears were ringing, the scientists declared attempts to fix the Time Anchor to be useless until they could be sure that no-one would break it again. The Time Anchor itself emitted a constant hum that would sporadically change in pitch. The scientists tried to calculate how long it would take them to crash into the beginning of time, but found their efforts futile. The rate at which the lab was falling back through time seemed to be completely arbitrary and changed at random. In the midst of all this one scientist, Rise Of Fenix, offhandedly said, "look on the bright side, at least DoYouHas didn't kill all of us". A statement which met replies of grumbling and shuffling from the frustrated and paranoid crew within earshot.
The interviews were not going well. It was extremely disconcerting when, randomly, a backwards moving version of the person being interviewed would separate from it's original and start saying everything from the interview so far, backwards. The interviewer would have to sit and wait for the backwards version to finish and walk away, or for the the rate of backwards travel to increase so such interruptions were little more than blips. When crew pointed out that this didn't really make sense, the scientists directed their attention to the Time Anchor, which was more magic than science, to demonstrate that they should just roll with it.
Again and again, the crew found their thoughts drawn to that offhand remark made by Rise Of Fenix. "Why is he so happy?" and "Maybe he knew he wasn't going to be killed by DoYouHas" could frequently be heard over the humming of the Time Anchor. Sure enough, when the time came for the votes to be tallied, Rise Of Fenix held the majority. The crew swarmed him and slipped a noose made of cable over his head. They strung him up and, though he gurgled and kicked a bit, the silence of his death was so palpably green they knew they had failed to kill an anarchist.
Rise of Fenix the Vanilla Townie has been lynched.
It is now Night 1. Day 2 will start in approximately 24 hours. Please PM any night actions to BOTH GMarshal and myself. The deadline for night actions is 03:00 GMT (+00:00). Any actions PMed after that deadline will be ignored even if the day post is not yet up.
What do you mean froggy? you mean about the part where the anarchists have to curse the establishment with their dying breaths? Or the part about interruptions? I hate that he didnt even defend himself too....
Well, we lynched a green, but he was useless. He couldn't even defend himself, was inactive, and planning to be inactive for another 24 hours(probably more like 36), and tried to post for the town but just spammed and posted confusing things. The good thing is at least we had everyone else generally active as voting time came, but we need to try to be on that voting train a bit earlier.
I suppose this outcome is about the same as lynching an inactive green, as he was pretty much useless as far as pro-town posting goes...my big worry is that tomorrows lynch will be on sc2system who kinda seems the same as RoF, he could very well be another genuine case of a quite inactive and weak posting townie. If this happens the town numbers will be dwindling rather quickly... Will have a good read through the D1 activity and come up with some thoughts later on today.
On March 24 2012 23:11 virtu wrote: I suppose this outcome is about the same as lynching an inactive green, as he was pretty much useless as far as pro-town posting goes...my big worry is that tomorrows lynch will be on sc2system who kinda seems the same as RoF, he could very well be another genuine case of a quite inactive and weak posting townie. If this happens the town numbers will be dwindling rather quickly... Will have a good read through the D1 activity and come up with some thoughts later on today.
That is true, we can't commit to any votes based on day 1 opinions we need to make some new ideas based on day 2 activity as well. Sc2system was just so shitty during the end of the voting phase, he just seemed like he was taunting everyone.
Of course we'll modify our opinions based on night 1 and day 2, but for the moment I still think my case against sc2system remains reasonably strong, and if there were a 2nd vote right now I'm sure he would get lynched on the spot.
On March 24 2012 23:11 virtu wrote: I suppose this outcome is about the same as lynching an inactive green, as he was pretty much useless as far as pro-town posting goes...my big worry is that tomorrows lynch will be on sc2system who kinda seems the same as RoF, he could very well be another genuine case of a quite inactive and weak posting townie. If this happens the town numbers will be dwindling rather quickly... Will have a good read through the D1 activity and come up with some thoughts later on today.
It was more or less expected that we'd get a bad townie on day 1. I thought it was pretty clear he was bad town rather than mafia, but just a really bad town who couldn't even vote in the right format last minute that would have saved him.
This doesn't make it a bad lynch, because it provides information. We need to go back and look at who voted for who and when. This will be useful, but only mildly, since his play was so bad that there was massive consensus.
The other points of analysis for day 2 will analyzing the activities of night 1, and of course, searching for scum slips.
On March 24 2012 21:26 froggynoddy wrote: Just read the write up in full. I think DoYouHas is trying to tell us something...
I normally don't read all of the flavor text, because it is designed to be just that, flavor. But I did read it carefully this time, since the town is losing all the newbie games, it is within the realm of possibility that some hint was given. But after a careful read, I don't see anything.
sc2system is the most scummy candidate in my opinion that we currently have. There are a few other cases out there on him so I won't rehash those. However, this response to when I asked:
I love playing games like this becuase I find it funny how you can counter every logic and you can confuse people.
The hell? I just noticed this, why the hell would you want to confuse people? ...Unless you are a scum?
Anyway, not going to vote for Seviro or Artanis at this point. Need more information to make a better judgement. But, the case on Seviro is weak and Artanis seems scummy.
@ Everyone. I have to leave in 30 minutes and then I will be gone for the day. So is it going to be sc2system or Fenix?
sc2system feels like the safer bet to me. Scummy post that I point out above, and then hardcore lurker basically since.
does not make any sense to me.
On March 24 2012 05:58 sc2system wrote:
And I did write that I like to confuse people but that is only when they use invalid arguments that ruin the game. For example if we all vote on X becuase Y was killed by the mafia and Y accused X the previous day. This is an invalid argument so this is when I like to inverse the logic and I say: What if the mafia wanted us to think that and they get a double kill, or what if they knew that we knew that and they just did the first step. Confused? Good. And this only works with invalid arguments.
Hope that is all I wanted to say...
I still don't know why you would want to confuse us townies.. Pointing out the someone's argument is wrong is one thing, but blatantly trying to confuse people reading the thread is pretty scummy.
##FoS: sc2system
Moving on,
Nova, you have quite a bit of posts... but nothing of use. I'm not going to quote them all here (look through his filter). This is a STARK difference from the last game. Concerning a bit to me. Hopefully over the next coupe days you will provide some big pro-town discussions.
Yeah I agree that his confusion thing is wierd and doesn't make any sense if you're town. That plus the fact taht he changed his vote for no apparent reason at the end of the day is really strange. I'd want to hear more from him to see if he can come up with some reasonable explanation.
Yep, I am trying to get a case out tonight. Over the past couple days i have been very busy, many tests on friday and a friends party was today, so when i have been posting i have normally only been on for 5 minutes.
BlueyD Okay, so I would like to share my suspicions on our acquaintance, BlueyD. + Show Spoiler +
On March 22 2012 13:43 BlueyD wrote: Hey, I'm BlueyD and this is my first game of Mafia ever, but I've read a few here on TL and I think I have a good feel for how this works.
This said, it's been 3 hours since we've gotten our roles, and no one has spoken yet. I'd like to see everyone at least post to confirm activity. Whoever doesn't start posting is already suspicious at worst, and useless at best. We don't want any mafia hiding among the lurkers. I'll personally support lynching an inactive unless something pretty big happens.
Good luck to all, and may the most able survive!
BlueyD makes the first post of the game, in which he appears to want to take a leadership position in the town. He dictates what behavior is suspicious, and what is useless, pretty much stating obvious things, which he can get some credit for as he is the first poster in the game. One thing that I note is “I'll personally support lynching an inactive unless something pretty big happens.” This was 3 hours after the game started, and if he is mafia, it would have been plenty of time for his mafia to have gotten their roles and know that they will all post soon, and that they are not inactive. However, this post is not very suspicious. Main thing to note: Point of this post seems to be, “Hey look, I am here and I am playing like a leader, and everyone is more suspicious than me because I am the first poster!
On March 22 2012 23:42 BlueyD wrote: People I consider to be lurkers right now, until further notice:
Seviro (one useless post, but he's there) Rise of Fenix (one useless post calling me a townie for posting first, I want his opinion on day 1 lynching) Ninja4Ever (he did say he would post later)
No one is entirely inactive, but most people seem to agree to lynch a lurker day 1. This means we have to start thinking about who to lynch if there's no convenient lurker.
Here he tries to seem more like the leader. Making a lurker list, but not really posting any content. “This means we have to start thinking about who to lynch if there's no convenient lurker” This is not content, this is “obvious”. There is a decent sized gap between many of his posts. He is coming across in a leader way, but is being allowed to sit back and chill, a position that mafia would love.
On March 23 2012 11:44 BlueyD wrote: Just a quick summary of Rise of Fenix's behavior up to now...
- Admits to not reading the rules and says some really confused stuff about voting as a result - Accuses michaelthe due to his eagerness to lynch an inactive, when many have argued we should do this - Tells michaelthe he would vote for him if there were an unlynch in the game - Doesn't actually put in a vote for michaelthe once he knows he can unvote later, says he has no reads instead - Uses really short posts frequently
I don't know if the guy is awful scum or awful townie. All I know is he's awful. If he's town, he'll be absolutely useless to us, but if he's mafia, he'll quickly give himself out on the 2nd day, at this pace. I'm putting my chips on bad townie for the moment.
To Rise Of Fenix: You better come up with some real information as to why you acted like you acted (see above points), or else I WILL put my vote in for your lynch.
---
Ninja4Ever. and sc2system seem to be our 2 big time lurkers at the moment. They, together with Fenix, are part of my top 3 should lynch list.
Here, BlueyD throws serious suspicion to multiple people. Already beginning to plan for day 2? He goes hard on RoF, and notes that Ninja4ever. and Sc2system are lurking and should be lynch targets as well. Note the part that says, “To Rise Of Fenix: You better come up with some real information as to why you acted like you acted (see above points), or else I WILL put my vote in for your lynch.”
On March 24 2012 06:58 BlueyD wrote: Just came back from work, was reading a bit at work as well but I didn't keep notes. I was waiting on a reply by Fenix which I guess never came. I'll grab dinner then post my analysis in... I hope 1 hour or so.
On March 24 2012 07:11 BlueyD wrote: Fine, fine, fine, I'll vote now.
##Vote: sc2system
Reasoning incoming after dinner.
Uhh, what? From telling RoF that he better explain or die to voting sc2system after RoF posts nothing? Wishy washy and contradicting. Now, BlueyD starts posting his suspicions on Sc2System, making another probable lynch target for either day 1 or day 2. + Show Spoiler +
On March 24 2012 07:49 BlueyD wrote: We've really got no news on Rise of Fenix so my analysis from my last post about him hasn't changed. Earlier today, I was 50/50 on lynching Fenix or sc2system, since my 3rd top 3 pick (ninja4ever) started posting, but then sc2system started acting... Reaaaally scummy.
I'll point to just one thing: Between his vote for Rise Of Fenix and his vote for No Lynch (due, according to him, to Rise now contributing), Rise Of Fenix has ONLY ONE POST. And it says:
On March 24 2012 05:36 Rise Of Fenix wrote: give me another chance, please. I will make up my terrible play today tommorow.
That's a contribution?! That's even more useless than the rest! I don't know why he chose to vote no lynch at that moment, but his reason makes NO SENSE. Maybe it had to do with him being under attack and trying to make us think he was just a little peaceful guy?
... And then he votes for Virtu out of nowhere. Pure bandwagon jumping, and not one that was going anywhere either way. Virtu hasn't been scummish at all, and while he had a few hours of inactivity, when he posts it at least makes sense.
I don't know if we'd get more info out of a Rise of Fenix lynch, but it doesn't matter to me when I'm getting huuuuuge scumvibes from sc2master.
First thing, earlier today you were 50/50 on Fenix/System? Because that’s not what saying, “Or I WILL vote for your lynch” sounds like. At all.
Then, he goes on to criticize System for thinking that Rise of Fenix’s post that was pleading to live is a contribution. Saying you will vote for Fenix if he doesn’t contribute, and then voting someone for thinking that a post which in your eyes, ISNT A CONTRIBUTION, is one, doesn’t make sense at all. And then he goes on to say that he doesn’t care if we would get more info from a RoF lynch as he is getting “scumvibes” AKA gut feeling from sc2system. Why would you not care if we would get more information? Information is one thing that mafia have that we can take from them. That’s what we need to beat them. Gut feeling is better than information? The worst part is that his gut feeling is because sc2system thinks RoF’s post was a contribution. What? You just said you would lynch RoF without a contribution. And then didn’t. At least for me, the only thing I would get from that is a New town/bad town vibe from Sc2system.
What I think is happening here is he thinks for some reason that Sc2System will be able to clarify himself more on night 1/day 2, and that Rise wont, and therefore wants to try to lynch System ASAP so he can also get a RoF vote in the next day. And then he notes that he would switch his vote if necessary, which would just allow him to accuse the other guy the next day.
After this BlueyD posts some fluff about being here, notes repeatedly that he wants a sc2system lynch more, even hinting to rise to vote for sc2system. Manipulation from our wannabe town leader. When he realizes that the vote is more likely to go through on rise, he switches.
On March 24 2012 23:54 BlueyD wrote: Of course we'll modify our opinions based on night 1 and day 2, but for the moment I still think my case against sc2system remains reasonably strong, and if there were a 2nd vote right now I'm sure he would get lynched on the spot.
Once again he tries to act the leader, telling us that we will change our thoughts based on events that pass, and notes how System is still a good lynch candidate. Overall BlueyD is trying to act the leader while sitting back and letting things happen, letting everyone destroy themselves as he watches from a safe distance and guides us every so often. He is manipulating it so that we can come off of one townie lynch to go right to another lynch, and constantly reminding us that we should be suspicious of System still. His voting is wishy washy, (not how he changes his votes, but how he decides to vote for system in the first place), posts lots of fluff and corrects many typos etc, and has not done a good job explaining himself.
On March 24 2012 07:57 BlueyD wrote: Note: I haven't vote counted, but I'm still here for a few hours (MLG yay!) and will switch for Rise if we need a majority when the time limit gets near, but I would much prefer to see sc2master lynched.
On March 24 2012 08:38 BlueyD wrote: Hint to Rise, if he's still around: Switching his vote to sc2system might let him stay alive another day.
It seems like it is 100% sure that these two are the lynch target for the first 2 day when everything can happen during day 1 that can change anything.
Personnally after seeing Rise flip Town I think that Sc2system is most likely a town that can't put his thought together. I believe that his day 1 posting are mostly inexperienced post and that if he try a bit he could come up with some good thing. I just know that for now i'm not willing to vote for him on day 2 yet.
On March 24 2012 07:57 BlueyD wrote: Note: I haven't vote counted, but I'm still here for a few hours (MLG yay!) and will switch for Rise if we need a majority when the time limit gets near, but I would much prefer to see sc2master lynched.
On March 24 2012 08:38 BlueyD wrote: Hint to Rise, if he's still around: Switching his vote to sc2system might let him stay alive another day.
It seems like it is 100% sure that these two are the lynch target for the first 2 day when everything can happen during day 1 that can change anything.
Personnally after seeing Rise flip Town I think that Sc2system is most likely a town that can't put his thought together. I believe that his day 1 posting are mostly inexperienced post and that if he try a bit he could come up with some good thing. I just know that for now i'm not willing to vote for him on day 2 yet.
RoF's behaviour is independent of Sc2systems. Just because RoF flipped town does not mean that sc2system is going to also (neither does it mean it is scum... it means literally nothing).
My rush to vote for sc2system with no immediate explanation was due to mementoss hurrying me up, saying people were leaving, which they were. At that point I was hoping to reverse the vote in order to lynch sc2system due to legitimate reasons, but didn't get there in time. I could've waited until aftermy dinner to post my vote at the same time as the whole explanation, but then I would've been there even later!
On gaining information by lynching Rise: I was comparing the information we could get by lynching sc2system and Rise, assuming our lynch turned out to be scum. We really don't gain much info right now by lynching townies. That's not the only criterion used to determine who we lynch, though: Likelihood of being scum is a big thing, and imo sc2system beat Rise by far there. Rise's behavior is less suspicious since the excuse that he's not very bright at all works pretty well for everything he's done. sc2system's behavior, meanwhile, just looked chaotic for no reason. Do I have to even mention he voted for someone saying "ok if you say so" as the only explanation?
My threats directed at Rise were meant to pressure him to post more to explain himself. You don't pressure someone by saying "oh, but I'm still split between you and the inactive", because that's just weak play. When I made them, I fully intended to put my vote for his lynch IF nothing else suspicious came up. I couldn't guess that sc2system would, during the few hours I wasn't there, start acting so erratically and make his case worse. Rise's case, meanwhile, didn't really move.
My telling Rise to vote for sc2system can hardly be called manipulation. I do it right there in the open and I don't care if you guys see it! I think the guy has proven himself to be so bad that he needs another player to point out the one way he might be able to survive the vote. And indeed, he goes on to screw up the voting format and not be counted, further adding to the evidence for him just being awful...
Yeah, I did that too. Oops! First time playing, didn't think the bold was important. Corrected myself in time, though.
You shouldn't really criticise me for posting fluff as my first post (no first post can really say much in these games) or 'correcting many typos' (which I didn't do, closest I came to this is continuing a post after submitting accidentally).
Your case against me seems really weak, but if you have more specific questions, I'll answer them...
I am withdrawing my vote for Rise Of Fenix because I said in my post that if he starts caring more about the game that I will withdraw it.
That is one of the reasons I posted my vote very early so he can read it and decide If he is going to try to help the townies. If I am right the mafia will not all vote for the same person becuase that would make them stand out. I have seen some posts before when people accuse other people and others agree but not all of them vote, and they dont even accuse anyone else after that. (Hope you understand if you need a explenation of what I tried to say just ask [english is not my first language]).
##Vote: No Lynch
And I did write that I like to confuse people but that is only when they use invalid arguments that ruin the game. For example if we all vote on X becuase Y was killed by the mafia and Y accused X the previous day. This is an invalid argument so this is when I like to inverse the logic and I say: What if the mafia wanted us to think that and they get a double kill, or what if they knew that we knew that and they just did the first step. Confused? Good. And this only works with invalid arguments.
Hope that is all I wanted to say...
Like other said, Rise didn't post of value before or after this post so there was no reason to unvote him, and the second part of the post doesn't make any sense, this is basically the definition of WIFOM.
On March 24 2012 07:46 virtu wrote: you might want to hit refresh sc2system, i've posted multiple times.
Sorry I hit F5 (refresh but I was clicked out of the window)
I am so sorry =S
And I am not voting to kill Rise Of Fenix even though I would do becuase his comeback is bad.
But I am felling that the mafia is manipulating us and I believe that ROF is the person to kill. I believe that he is a villager so if you want to kill the a person that is lurking but is a villager (i believe) then go ahead. Becuase if we dont kill him that is only a extra person for the mafia to kill. One more thing is that if ROF is mafia it is possible that the mafia are killing one of them so they seem to not to be mafia becuase their vote killed a mafia member.
I cant decide so I am voting for a no lynch.
##unvote: virtu ##vote: no lynch
And here he is WIFOMing hard to explain why he doesn't vote on Rise and add confusing stuff about mafia killing each other, that doesn't make sense.
There is more of his post that add very few things and are just confusing, I still don't know tho if he is worth the day 2 lynch, everything can happen but indeed it does look grim for him.
On March 25 2012 05:26 BlueyD wrote: Rise's behavior is less suspicious since the excuse that he's not very bright at all works pretty well for everything he's done. sc2system's behavior, meanwhile, just looked chaotic for no reason. Do I have to even mention he voted for someone saying "ok if you say so" as the only explanation?
This I find weak. The same excuse used for Rise can be used for sc2system with little effort. He doesn't seem to be thinking about his posts much either so if you're going to use that excuse for Rise, it'd apply to sc2system as well.
The overarching 'taking leadership without many contributions' theme didn't sit well with me either when I was rereading the thread here.
I'd also like to see Virtu post some more. Came up with analysis on RoF, sc2system and Ninja4ever on one post but haven't seen too much from him other then that. Hasn't really given his opinion on anything that could be considered controversial, just on lurkers/bad posters which are easy prey.
On Rise and sc2system: Short version: Rise was most likely just stupid, not much of a loss if we lynched him and turned up green. sc2system seemed less stupid and just as chaotic as Rise, hence more scummy to me. Not gonna add more on this, it's taken enough space already.
---
On Artanis and Seviro: I thought Artanis's case wasn't strong enough to consider a day 1 lynch, but I took notice of it. I'm not gonna clutter up the threat by repeating what he said, but Seviro hasn't shown a strong opinion all game that was really his. He seems to be able to appreciate other people's logic while never coming up with his own.
I also didn't like that when he got voted on by Artanis, he just voted Artanis back. And I didn't like that he had a "pressure but no lynch" opinion on lurkers at first, but then switched his vote to Virtu for his period of inactivity, despite many ok Virtu posts before. "Flexible in opinion" is how I'd describe Seviro, and that's not a compliment...
On March 25 2012 06:39 BlueyD wrote: And I didn't like that he had a "pressure but no lynch" opinion on lurkers at first, but then switched his vote to Virtu for his period of inactivity, despite many ok Virtu posts before. "Flexible in opinion" is how I'd describe Seviro, and that's not a compliment...
This is what I meant by pressure but not necessarly lynch, I put my vote on him and then he came and posted his thought so I switched back. This is what I call pressure play.
Why you want virtu to post while not mentioning people lurking harder than him? He at least had one good post, while sc2system and ninja4ever have none. Make them post too.
My thoughts on the Nova_Terra case vs BlueyD felt very weak and forced. I read the points and it felt like he was trying to put some scummy behaviour into posts that weren't scummy to begin with. Since when is taking leadership a scum trait, it's a very risky thing to do as scum unless you are good at it as it gives you more connections to more players and allows most posts for people to analyse. Also a couple of the posts were taken out of context of what was happening in the thread at the time, eg, I tried to force BlueyD for an initial vote, before he left. Cause the town needed votes, and vote were not happening.
Also I would kinda like prelim votes to start as early as second 24 hours of the day. As at least it provokes discussion and allows plenty of time for defense/ change majority. As we all live in different time zones. Im going out tonight so I probably will not post, until tommorrow.
Just checked the filters of everyone and noticed Gossemerr has posted almost no content either. First post was a joke vote on Mementoss, after that he's just gone after Rise of Fenix and sc2system as well. I'd like to see more content by him.
On March 25 2012 06:39 BlueyD wrote: And I didn't like that he had a "pressure but no lynch" opinion on lurkers at first, but then switched his vote to Virtu for his period of inactivity, despite many ok Virtu posts before. "Flexible in opinion" is how I'd describe Seviro, and that's not a compliment...
This is what I meant by pressure but not necessarly lynch, I put my vote on him and then he came and posted his thought so I switched back. This is what I call pressure play.
If there's no actual risk of them getting lynched there's no pressure. He was probably just planning to post anyway. If you indicate beforehand that you don't actually want to lynch lurkers then almost all of the pressure to add in a meaningful way dissipates very quickly.
On March 25 2012 06:43 Seviro wrote: This is what I meant by pressure but not necessarly lynch, I put my vote on him and then he came and posted his thought so I switched back. This is what I call pressure play.
You said that we should "we should put pressure on lurker but not lynch them to fast". That's a direct quote.
Well, the fastest we can lynch a lurker was the day 1 lynch, so that seemed to imply you were against lynching on day 1. Once that opinion of yours is in the open, the pressure value of your vote goes down a lot, so I don't get why you would say that.
Just putting it out there if we have a vig shot, I don't hate shooting sc2system tonight. I feel we might end up having to waste a day lynch on someone who is just shitty and could be shit town or shit mafia. As keeping him will corrupt any scum hunting later in the game.
On March 25 2012 06:46 Mementoss wrote: Why you want virtu to post while not mentioning people lurking harder than him? He at least had one good post, while sc2system and ninja4ever have none. Make them post too.
My thoughts on the Nova_Terra case vs BlueyD felt very weak and forced. I read the points and it felt like he was trying to put some scummy behaviour into posts that weren't scummy to begin with. Since when is taking leadership a scum trait, it's a very risky thing to do as scum unless you are good at it as it gives you more connections to more players and allows most posts for people to analyse. Also a couple of the posts were taken out of context of what was happening in the thread at the time, eg, I tried to force BlueyD for an initial vote, before he left. Cause the town needed votes, and vote were not happening.
Also I would kinda like prelim votes to start as early as second 24 hours of the day. As at least it provokes discussion and allows plenty of time for defense/ change majority. As we all live in different time zones. Im going out tonight so I probably will not post, until tommorrow.
sc2system has posted plenty of bad posts, I'm fairly certain he won't improve on that any time soon. He's not going to be much use to the town imo. Ninja4ever mentioned he was going to be AFK today so I'll put pressure on him tomorrow. How come you didn't mention Gossemerr?
Taking leadership without solid reasoning is a scummy thing to do. You're attempting to get people to follow what you say, and you can convince people by taking a position of authority, even if not earned. Posts can be taken out of context due to the filter option which is what people will usually use to analyze one person's posts, so an advice to anyone analyzing players; make sure to read the thread alongside it so you remember what was on the minds of town at the time.
I'm good with the prelim votes starting as early as possible, as long as people will be present later too to change them should things develop.
On March 25 2012 06:39 BlueyD wrote: And I didn't like that he had a "pressure but no lynch" opinion on lurkers at first, but then switched his vote to Virtu for his period of inactivity, despite many ok Virtu posts before. "Flexible in opinion" is how I'd describe Seviro, and that's not a compliment...
This is what I meant by pressure but not necessarly lynch, I put my vote on him and then he came and posted his thought so I switched back. This is what I call pressure play.
If there's no actual risk of them getting lynched there's no pressure. He was probably just planning to post anyway. If you indicate beforehand that you don't actually want to lynch lurkers then almost all of the pressure to add in a meaningful way dissipates very quickly.
On March 25 2012 06:43 Seviro wrote: This is what I meant by pressure but not necessarly lynch, I put my vote on him and then he came and posted his thought so I switched back. This is what I call pressure play.
You said that we should "we should put pressure on lurker but not lynch them to fast". That's a direct quote.
Well, the fastest we can lynch a lurker was the day 1 lynch, so that seemed to imply you were against lynching on day 1. Once that opinion of yours is in the open, the pressure value of your vote goes down a lot, so I don't get why you would say that.
Had he no post, I would have left my vote on him, the thing is he did and his post was satisfying in my eyes so I switched to someone else that was getting pressured hard but was not defending or anything.
Also, I think that these kind of early vote are a good thing so that later in the game we can see a pattern if someone seems to be posting only when he is getting pressured/voted.
On March 25 2012 06:39 BlueyD wrote: And I didn't like that he had a "pressure but no lynch" opinion on lurkers at first, but then switched his vote to Virtu for his period of inactivity, despite many ok Virtu posts before. "Flexible in opinion" is how I'd describe Seviro, and that's not a compliment...
This is what I meant by pressure but not necessarly lynch, I put my vote on him and then he came and posted his thought so I switched back. This is what I call pressure play.
If there's no actual risk of them getting lynched there's no pressure. He was probably just planning to post anyway. If you indicate beforehand that you don't actually want to lynch lurkers then almost all of the pressure to add in a meaningful way dissipates very quickly.
On March 25 2012 06:43 Seviro wrote: This is what I meant by pressure but not necessarly lynch, I put my vote on him and then he came and posted his thought so I switched back. This is what I call pressure play.
You said that we should "we should put pressure on lurker but not lynch them to fast". That's a direct quote.
Well, the fastest we can lynch a lurker was the day 1 lynch, so that seemed to imply you were against lynching on day 1. Once that opinion of yours is in the open, the pressure value of your vote goes down a lot, so I don't get why you would say that.
Had he no post, I would have left my vote on him, the thing is he did and his post was satisfying in my eyes so I switched to someone else that was getting pressured hard but was not defending or anything.
Also, I think that these kind of early vote are a good thing so that later in the game we can see a pattern if someone seems to be posting only when he is getting pressured/voted.
So in fact you would be willing to lynch a lurker. Why didn't you just say that from the start?
EBWOP: On the leadership thing, it is true that it is not inherently scummy but it is a bad thing, if someone is able to take the leadership of the town at the point where nobody even discuss what he say, it could end pretty bad.
On March 25 2012 06:46 Mementoss wrote: Why you want virtu to post while not mentioning people lurking harder than him? He at least had one good post, while sc2system and ninja4ever have none. Make them post too.
My thoughts on the Nova_Terra case vs BlueyD felt very weak and forced. I read the points and it felt like he was trying to put some scummy behaviour into posts that weren't scummy to begin with. Since when is taking leadership a scum trait, it's a very risky thing to do as scum unless you are good at it as it gives you more connections to more players and allows most posts for people to analyse. Also a couple of the posts were taken out of context of what was happening in the thread at the time, eg, I tried to force BlueyD for an initial vote, before he left. Cause the town needed votes, and vote were not happening.
Also I would kinda like prelim votes to start as early as second 24 hours of the day. As at least it provokes discussion and allows plenty of time for defense/ change majority. As we all live in different time zones. Im going out tonight so I probably will not post, until tommorrow.
sc2system has posted plenty of bad posts, I'm fairly certain he won't improve on that any time soon. He's not going to be much use to the town imo. Ninja4ever mentioned he was going to be AFK today so I'll put pressure on him tomorrow. How come you didn't mention Gossemerr?
Taking leadership without solid reasoning is a scummy thing to do. You're attempting to get people to follow what you say, and you can convince people by taking a position of authority, even if not earned. Posts can be taken out of context due to the filter option which is what people will usually use to analyze one person's posts, so an advice to anyone analyzing players; make sure to read the thread alongside it so you remember what was on the minds of town at the time.
I'm good with the prelim votes starting as early as possible, as long as people will be present later too to change them should things develop.
Yeah that is true, but it doesn't make the play any less risky, but even so the posts he quoted had no real showing of taking leadership anyways.
I missed that from ninja4ever, thanks for the correction. I mentioned the first two that came to my head, as far as I remember Gossemer posted after the night post correct? He said he had some thoughts on Nova so I'm interested in hearing those when he came back.
Imo Night 1 is such an awkward night to discuss things and I find it hard figuring out what to say as you don't wanna put yourself in the spotlight. I'm still trying to figure out the most beneficial things to discuss and how to do it as town.
Everything I underlined in your post is a good point and I agree with it.
On March 25 2012 07:04 Artanis[Xp] wrote: So in fact you would be willing to lynch a lurker. Why didn't you just say that from the start?
I did not say I was against lynching lurker, I said that we must pressure them hard so that they have no choice to post so that we know that they are really lurking Like asking for their opinion or whatever, make them participate so that we can make ourself a more precise opinion about them. We need to make sure that everyone is participating and not just mention someone only at the moment of the vote so that they don't have time to post anything.
[QUOTE]On March 25 2012 06:48 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Just checked the filters of everyone and noticed Gossemerr has posted almost no content either. First post was a joke vote on Mementoss, after that he's just gone after Rise of Fenix and sc2system as well. I'd like to see more content by him.
Um okay? Im on a phone so this will short until tonight. What are you talking about? Read the thread in order. Who made the first case on fenix and the first vote. I also brought up some completely new evidence on sc2system. I can't look at your posts but the only "material that you have provided us with is a weak case on seviro. And a few REALLY scummy phrases. You seem really anxious to make others seem scummy. ..
Oh, sorry. I didnt read over the thread while i wrote it and was going by filters. I did understand that he had a reason for it. I just didnt think that the reason made much sense when he had said that he would vote for RoF if he didnt contribute. As Artanis just said, I do find the manner in which he tried to take leadership to be scummy. He has been guiding the town towards a certain lynch from this position, without being forced to post much analysis, which i think is a result of having made a couple posts that seemed to be from an authoritative position. Another thing that i did not like from this is that as he is seemingly capable, he isnt posting as much content as i think he could be, like what i should have noticed about you last game mementoss. Prelim votes is OK with me, but i think that as much of the town is relatively inactive getting a clear consensus right away will be a bit challenging. I also dont want people to leave a prelim vote and forget about it until relatively late in the day because of this inactivity. Please stay active! We cant just let scum lurk this out.
Gossemerr, you didn't actually have a case on Rise even though you dropped the first vote on him. Your reason for voting for him was a misunderstanding of what he said.
Rise of Fenix wrote: well, you posting first probably eludes you being mafia and drawing unneeded attention to yourself. That is not to say that this could be a fake out, but I am inclined to believe you are town. Who else would like to speak up?
Gossemerr wrote: [Unvote Mementoss, vote Rise of Fenix here]
I don't understand his only post. He contradicts himself by saving that BlueyD was probably mafia, but thinks he is town in the next sentence? Suspicious to me.
He said I probably wasn't mafia in both sentences, but you misread him. So I'm not sure why you bring up being the first to call for Rise of Fenix when your logic was bad and when it turns out he was green, no less.
Mementoss, what do you mean the posts i quoted didnt show much of taking leadership? for instance, "I'd like to see everyone at least post to confirm activity. Whoever doesn't start posting is already suspicious at worst, and useless at best. We don't want any mafia hiding among the lurkers. I'll personally support lynching an inactive unless something pretty big happens. " "This means we have to start thinking about who to lynch if there's no convenient lurker." " Of course we'll modify our opinions based on night 1 and day 2, but for the moment I still think my case against sc2system remains reasonably strong, and if there were a 2nd vote right now I'm sure he would get lynched on the spot." I may be misreading the second one wrong, but even so, the fact that he has been allowed to maintain an authoritative posture without pressure isnt good.
On March 25 2012 07:42 Nova_Terra wrote: Mementoss, what do you mean the posts i quoted didnt show much of taking leadership? for instance, 1 - "I'd like to see everyone at least post to confirm activity. Whoever doesn't start posting is already suspicious at worst, and useless at best. We don't want any mafia hiding among the lurkers. I'll personally support lynching an inactive unless something pretty big happens. " 2 - "This means we have to start thinking about who to lynch if there's no convenient lurker." 3 - " Of course we'll modify our opinions based on night 1 and day 2, but for the moment I still think my case against sc2system remains reasonably strong, and if there were a 2nd vote right now I'm sure he would get lynched on the spot." I may be misreading the second one wrong, but even so, the fact that he has been allowed to maintain an authoritative posture without pressure isnt good.
Im pretty sure everyone in the thread has said 1 and 2 at the start of the game.
1 -> Be more active, inactives dont help scum hunting.
2 -> Lynch someone with a good case, if not lynch a lurker.
3-> A response to me saying, I dont want the the town getting hung up on day 1 opinions as better information to come, EG just cause we suspected RoF and sc2system, doesnt mean we should nessecarily lynch sc2system day 2. As better cases may come up.
I didn't mean for this defense to stretch out for so long and so analysed, cause if he actually ends up flipping mafia my ass will be on the line. But I just think it was a weak case and I didn't really see where you were coming from, and usually on the good cases I do, without being like erm well that is possible I guess. Felt really forced. I;m not saying he's innocent. But this case hasn't made him more scummy in my eyes, no offense.
Really, I've got an authoritative and these posts prove it? That's new to me. I would think someone trying to make a case that I've led anything here would pick the posts where I try to make people vote for a sc2system lynch based on reasoning that you may agree with or not. Not these 3 posts... All right, let me BlueyD-to-English translate these 3 for you...
1. Hi! I've never played mafia but I understand the game! Also we need a first post to get people talking! 2. Uh, guys, we've been talking about lynching lurkers day 1, but what if it turns out there's no lurkers to lynch? 3. Let's not act like we're starting anew and everyone's back to zero, guys, sc2system has still done crazy stuff we shouldn't forget.
If saying "we" a bunch of times is all it takes to be a leader now...
On March 25 2012 06:05 Artanis[Xp] wrote: I'd also like to see Virtu post some more. Came up with analysis on RoF, sc2system and Ninja4ever on one post but haven't seen too much from him other then that. Hasn't really given his opinion on anything that could be considered controversial, just on lurkers/bad posters which are easy prey.
I'm slightly more inactive than I'd like to be, I joined after GMarshal said that we most likely wouldn't start until after the end of MLG under the presumption that this would be the case, but as it's started before, MLG has taken up most of my attention so far.
To be honest I haven't said much else other than my views on Ninja4ever, sc2system and RoF because there hasn't been much else going on. Almost the entirety of day 1 was focused on sc2system/RoF, and the discussion since has been weak/substantial cases at best, because EVERYONE has been focused on sc2system/RoF cases. Anything made since has just been "I notice you've not posted on anything other than X, why is this?".
As has been already mentioned, if we have a vig shot available then I suggest dropping it on sc2system. He has to die, but to waste a lynch on him when he could well just be a terrible town player would be depressing.
Considering I personally have been more inactive than I'd have liked, checking through the filters, my posts are lager and more substantial than...
##FoS: Gossemerr
Will post more analysis in a few hours as Grubby Naniwa is about to start, but if you check his filter there is alarmingly low content/quality of posts. He did start the RoF bandwagon rolling, however it was an obvious play to make, RoF's posting was obviously sub par, and what better way for a mafia to hide than to start a lynch on a weak townie? The rest of the posts are one liners, or are following other people's thoughts shortly after they've posted them, basically agreeing. As said will expand the case asap.
First off, I like that Nova contributed to the discussion a bit more. I don't think BlueyD trying to be a leader is scummy, unless it becomes manipulating to the point of driving us of a cliff. I'm not sold on the case, but at least we are getting a discussion.
Now for the stuff on me.
On March 25 2012 07:23 BlueyD wrote: Gossemerr, you didn't actually have a case on Rise even though you dropped the first vote on him. Your reason for voting for him was a misunderstanding of what he said.
Rise of Fenix wrote: well, you posting first probably eludes you being mafia and drawing unneeded attention to yourself. That is not to say that this could be a fake out, but I am inclined to believe you are town. Who else would like to speak up?
Gossemerr wrote: [Unvote Mementoss, vote Rise of Fenix here]
I don't understand his only post. He contradicts himself by saving that BlueyD was probably mafia, but thinks he is town in the next sentence? Suspicious to me.
He said I probably wasn't mafia in both sentences, but you misread him. So I'm not sure why you bring up being the first to call for Rise of Fenix when your logic was bad and when it turns out he was green, no less.
Sigh. My original voting for him was to get him to talk, and we have already established that I misread the other part. I should not have used the word "case" in retrospect. Second part: do you not read the whole thread? I brought it up because:
On March 25 2012 06:48 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Just checked the filters of everyone and noticed Gossemerr has posted almost no content either. First post was a joke vote on Mementoss, after that he's just gone after Rise of Fenix and sc2system as well. I'd like to see more content by him. .
Trying to say I did not and have not jumped on any bandwagon. Next,
On March 25 2012 08:51 virtu wrote: As has been already mentioned, if we have a vig shot available then I suggest dropping it on sc2system. He has to die, but to waste a lynch on him when he could well just be a terrible town player would be depressing.
Considering I personally have been more inactive than I'd have liked, checking through the filters, my posts are lager and more substantial than...
##FoS: Gossemerr
Will post more analysis in a few hours as Grubby Naniwa is about to start, but if you check his filter there is alarmingly low content/quality of posts. He did start the RoF bandwagon rolling, however it was an obvious play to make, RoF's posting was obviously sub par, and what better way for a mafia to hide than to start a lynch on a weak townie? The rest of the posts are one liners, or are following other people's thoughts shortly after they've posted them, basically agreeing. As said will expand the case asap.
Since when does the length of the posts mean you are more pro-town or less scummy if they are long? Longer posts just fill up the thread with clutter and can waste time. I'm not going to make a long drawn-out post if I do not have a solid case to back it up. Also, since when is stating some that is both true and obvious bad, if it has not been mentioned already. And seriously now look at your filter, but within the whole thread. Basically all you have posted is three little discussions on Fenix, sc2system, and ninja. The part about ninja is nothing at all, and you state this. As for the other two, they were already in debate way before you stepped in to add you two cents. As a matter of fact I have already talked about both of them. In conclusion, I don't see how I am suspicious at all, let alone enough to warrant a FoS.
Anyways: @ the peeps asking the vig to shoot sc2system. I agree that he will probably be lynched if he does not step up his game, but let the vig decide based on his / her own decisions in my opinion. Either of you could easily be mafia wanting the shot wasted. Just my two cents. Also I would like to point this out this:
On March 25 2012 08:51 virtu wrote: As has been already mentioned, if we have a vig shot available then I suggest dropping it on sc2system. He has to die, but to waste a lynch on him when he could well just be a terrible town player would be depressing.
Are you SERIOUSLY suggesting that our vig should shoot someone who is possibly not a mafia? You would ACTUALLY want to waste a mafia kill on a bad town player? I think sc2system is playing either bad scum or town right now, as my older posts suggest, but why does he HAVE to die right now? Maybe Day 2 he will actually contribute.
The crew knew they had to sleep sometime. They were all unbelievably tired after the 48 hour gauntlet of adrenaline, grief, and paranoia. So reluctantly they all bedded down for the night, the Time Anchor's humming still in their ears.
*BANG* The gunshot and following clatter woke the lab like a thunderclap. The crew sat up, blinking the sleep from their eyes, and stared in horror at the grisly scene before them. sc2system lay on the ground in front of the door to the bathroom, shot in the back. Blood came from his mouth as well as his torso by the time that the crew surrounded him. Gasping his last, painful, breaths of life, sc2system looked up at the remaining crew with a look of hurt and confusion and asked, "Why?..."
After sc2system passed, the crew examined the gun used to kill him. It had been thrown away immediately after the shot. There were no fingerprints, and the gun had been wrapped in plastic to avoid any gunpowder residue. Clearly the weapon was not going to give them further clues. It was about this time that one of the scientists noticed that froggynoddy was missing. They eventually found him in the lab pantry, his throat slit, lying in a pool of blood and covered in potato chips. It seemed that the crew's glutton had taken to compulsive eating to deal with his stress, and had paid dearly.
sc2system the Vanilla Townie has been killed!
froggynoddy the Vanilla Townie has been killed!
It is now day 2. You have roughly 48 hours to find someone to lynch.
The deadline is 03:00 GMT (+00:00), that means that votes at 11:59:59 will be counted, but votes at and after 12:00:00 will not.
I'm the vig that killed sc2system. Unless anyone wishes to counterclaim (PLEASE DO), this makes me 100% town as there's no mafia roles that could cause a double kill. I'll give more concise thoughts tomorrow.
Had a few other suspects I wanted to go for but considered every one of them too suspicious, and Day 2 would probably be too focused on sc2system if he didn't die this night. Didn't have the balls to go for people just based on a mild suspicion, but I felt I had to prove my innocence to prevent a mislynch this day given my dumb slip on day1. Got my eye on a few people which I'll elaborate on in the morning. Revealing since I'm now effectively a townie and this way I can give some guidance.
On the sc2system hit: Ack! Well, he was just as green as Rise was... Given the suspicions many of us had and mementoss's + virtu's suggestion that a vigi hit him tonight, I think it's fair to assume he was vigi hit and froggy was mafia hit.
On the froggynoddy hit: I don't know what to make of this. He was off my radar. He was neither the most scummy-looking, nor the most active or inactive, nor the most helpful. I can't read anything from this hit.
On Artanis's vigi claim: I'll see whether anyone counterclaims then decide whether to believe you or not.
Tomorrow is MLG finals, I'll be at a barcraft all day, should be back at night though.
Yeah, If you are the vig artanis you should have waited. We could have had a free mafia death at some point. At least, sc2system was relatively worthless, so it should be a bit easier to go scumhunting. BlueyD, i kind of think the point of the hit on froggynoddy is in essence exactly what you said. he was off the radar, and its hard to read anything from the hit. I will go into his filter today, but i really dont expect to find much, unless its based on WIFOM.
On March 25 2012 17:10 Nova_Terra wrote: Yeah, If you are the vig artanis you should have waited. We could have had a free mafia death at some point. At least, sc2system was relatively worthless, so it should be a bit easier to go scumhunting.
It sucks he flips green but I think we'd have had a really hard time convincing people to lynch someone other than him tonight. Making statements like he enjoys confusing people, and voting for no lynch on day1 when everyone agreed that's probably the worst possible town outcome?
As you said, should make it easier to scumhunt now.
On March 22 2012 13:43 BlueyD wrote: Hey, I'm BlueyD and this is my first game of Mafia ever, but I've read a few here on TL and I think I have a good feel for how this works.
This said, it's been 3 hours since we've gotten our roles, and no one has spoken yet. I'd like to see everyone at least post to confirm activity. Whoever doesn't start posting is already suspicious at worst, and useless at best. We don't want any mafia hiding among the lurkers. I'll personally support lynching an inactive unless something pretty big happens.
Good luck to all, and may the most able survive!
Three hours is not cause for alarm at the start of the game ha.
Lets get this rolling.
##Vote: Mementoss
Only because you outplayed us so hard last game. Prove you are town this time!
Almost as pointless a post as RoF/sc2system were making, I think we can all agree.
You then push RoF, quite early on, because of one post, and your case exists of One line.
On March 22 2012 23:44 BlueyD wrote: Ack! Pushed enter by accident. EBWOP.
On Gossemer's early vote for Mementoss: He was quick to accuse someone in SNMMVIII as well, where he played town. I think it's just a townie move to get discussions going.
AND, I was right (and so was Nova)! But sadly, we didn't keep pushing ha.
If we are going to lynch a lurker lets put some pressure now and not waste time. So far Ninja4ever and Rise Of Fenix of yet to post anything really; however, Ninja did say he was going to post later.
On March 22 2012 14:14 Rise Of Fenix wrote: well, you posting first probably eludes you being mafia and drawing unneeded attention to yourself. That is not to say that this could be a fake out, but I am inclined to believe you are town. Who else would like to speak up?
On March 22 2012 22:20 Ninja4ever. wrote: I'm at school right now and might go to a party directly after, at worst I'll catch up and post my thoughts some hours before the dead line. Have fun guys, let the town prevail !
On March 22 2012 22:50 Ninja4ever. wrote: Well, seeing as it is day one and anyone could be lynched based purely on activity, I'll try my best to post my thoughts somewhere during the next few hours.
##Unvote: Mementoss
##Vote: Rise Of Fenix
I don't understand his only post. He contradicts himself by saving that BlueyD was probably mafia, but thinks he is town in the next sentence? Suspicious to me.
Cutting it short due to my fail, You've basically only posted about RoF/sc2system, and when Artanis noticed this and asked you to add more content, you decided to defend yourself instead and still haven't added anything.
My thoughts fast, before going out : Even if someone counterclaim the vigshot, I'd be more inclined to believe artanis, just by how fast he claimed vig, meaning he was probably waiting for the night post to come up. If he was waiting for it, it's because he knew there was going to be a double kill, which only the real vig could know. To me, artanis is close to 100 % green, and would still be around 80 if someone else claimed the hit. I don't even see why a mafia would want to claim vig anyway, seeing how much attention it would draw to him when the real one speak up.
I'll try to catch up with the previous pages and look for suspicious behavior tonight, when I have more time.
On March 25 2012 14:08 BlueyD wrote: On Artanis's vigi claim: I'll see whether anyone counterclaims then decide whether to believe you or not.
If you look at the roles, you'll see it's impossible that both hits were Mafia, meaning there has to be a Vigilante in play. For Mafia to claim a vigilante hit would be extremely risky given the original vig is now just a townie and can counterclaim, leading the town to trade 1 for 1 at worst. Mafia will never do this, so I'm confirmed town unless you stretch your logic reaaaalllllly thinly. The flip side to this is that I'm pretty much guaranteed to die Night 2, but at least you can be sure that I've got the town's best interests in mind for this day.
My biggest suspects right now are Seviro, michaelthe and Gossemerr. When looking for Mafia, you don't look for obvious 'scumtells'. Mafia isn't just going to have a little sign that says "hey! I'm mafia, please lynch me!", but you look for what they contribute to town. As Mafia you want to say as little as possible with as many words as possible, and Seviro has been the person I've seen do this the most. Nova_Terra spams a lot as well, but he gives his opinion on everything, and he didn't instantly try to throw me under the bus when my situation looked bad, and kept thinking for himself. One thing that does speak for Seviro is that he didn't instantly throw RoF under the bus, but given all the other suspects at the time (other than Ninja4ever but he was never in any real harm) were town, that doesn't need to mean much. He also used a chainsaw argument against me after I accused him, voting me for little reason seemingly only because I voted on him and some minor suspicions. Regardless of alignment, that's bad.
Michaelthe played a very strange game so far, basically making lists and giving general advice as well as asking for it, plus making the lurkers post up. All townie things, but also things that were already being done by other people. An easy way to get townie cred where it could be misplaced. Posted some analysis on Fenix explaining why he thought the lynch was bad, but went along with lynching RoF anyway. Could it be that he knew he was innocent from the start? Perhaps. Then comes my 'scum slip' which he suddenly jumps on. This makes no sense given his previous game style which was very distant and analytical. It's a 180 degree turn in how he plays which is very rare. It could be that he thought my 'scum slip' was so significant that it warranted this change of style, but I find it very suspicious at the least.
Gossemerr opened in a joking way, then creates the RoF lynch train based on RoF's post making not much sense. This play I think is fine if he was town too though. Jumps from RoF to sc2system a bit too easily too after RoF was confirmed town. It also makes sense that one Mafia would want to start the bandwagons while the other two 'reluctantly' post to lynch him in the end so that the mafia aren't connected as much. This however is more of a general mafia argument then specifically for Gossemerr. Accuses sc2system again for playing dumb when it's become pretty apparent that he's just not a very good townie. Uses chainsaw argument when I accuse him which is a super scummy thing to do (if you don't know, a chainsaw argument is accusing the accuser rather than defending yourself). This is something Seviro used earlier too. It's true that he started the bandwagon on RoF. What I also find weird is that he first calls for sc2system to get killed, then doesn't want the vigilante to kill sc2system after all. Given he flipped town that does make Gossemerr less suspicious, but he said it so late that it was unlikely that any vigilante would still change their target so I'm not sure it matters too much. Reading over this again though I'd say Gossemerr is the weakest case of the three.
To all of you out there, please analyze these three people well. To Seviro, michaelthe and Gossemerr; refute these points and analyze the others to make your case that you are indeed townie. The best way to defend yourself is to contribute. Given that I'm going to be the only one in this game you can trust, you'll know I'm not trying to redirect you onto players that aren't scum. Let's see if we can turn this around. I've got a lot of work I need to do today though so I can't guarantee I can react to any posts quickly.
I actually still don't hate the vig shot even though sc2system flipped green. Why is it good? 1. The focus is off sc2system, we can actually focus on scum-hunting and hopefully get one. 2. Mafia easily coulda killed artanis, hey I never woulda expected FroggyNoddy, then vig is wasted 3. We gain information from the vig claim, that Artanis is in fact a town player if the claim is correct. Im not saying we can confirm off the claim, but its a good tidbit.
I need to look into FroggyNoddys death now, probably not too much posting later in day as barcraft.
On March 25 2012 23:23 Mementoss wrote: 3. We gain information from the vig claim, that Artanis is in fact a town player if the claim is correct. Im not saying we can confirm off the claim, but its a good tidbit.
There is absolutely no possibility that I'm not Vigilante, since it's a 1 for 1 trade for Mafia at best. If there's anyone out there that would like to claim responsibility for the vig hit, please do so. It'd make absolutely no sense for Mafia to make a 1 for 1 trade.
I think you are vigilante, but Im just saying because you claimed it doesn't mean its true. Looking at the way it happened it seems though you are vigilante. Mafia could claim vig, but someone for sure would counter claim, and it wouldn't really make sense to bring attention to themselves with the fake claim. You posted you were vig without fear immediately even though sc2system flipped town. I am 95% sure you are vig, but its not 100% till you flip.
On March 25 2012 23:53 Mementoss wrote: I think you are vigilante, but Im just saying because you claimed it doesn't mean its true. Looking at the way it happened it seems though you are vigilante. Mafia could claim vig, but someone for sure would counter claim, and it wouldn't really make sense to bring attention to themselves with the fake claim. You posted you were vig without fear immediately even though sc2system flipped town. I am 95% sure you are vig, but its not 100% till you flip.
Nothing is ever 100% certain, of course. However if you look at it logically it'd be an extremely bad play for Mafia as the real vigilante can just speak up and force a 1 for 1 trade. Unless that happens, you're pretty much going to have to trust me as it's the closest thing you're going to have to a confirmed town.
I'd rather we stop arguing about my reliability though, I think I've proven that enough by now. I'd like to hear other people's opinions on my suspects.
On March 25 2012 22:54 Artanis[Xp] wrote: .He also used a chainsaw argument against me after I accused him, voting me for little reason seemingly only because I voted on him and some minor suspicions. Regardless of alignment, that's bad.
I don't think it was a "chainsaw argument" as you say because I did defend myself. I just thought "ok, he took all my post out of context so let's do the same thing with him". I know that was a bad play, but your accusations were meaningless so I just kind of did the same.
Now i'm gonna go read some filter and I'll post some of my thought after, especially Mementoss, a lot of people seem to think that he his almost confirmed town and given last game scenario, I don't like that. So brb in some hours.
Alright, this activity is bad, its day 2 its crucial we get a mafia kill here. Lets up the activity and find one of these scum. With that being said Im going to present a case right now. Lets look at the filter shall we?
Nova_Terra:
His meta is completely different. He explained that he changing the way he plays to improve his game. As vanilla town, he had long thought out posts, and pressure posts. In this game I read through his first 2 pages of filter, it 50% spam. The other 50% is dedicated to either responding to people, or asking peoples opinions on things usually leading the town in circles. Honestly, I can't even find anything to quote because its all useless.
He seems to be posting in fear and holding back. He posts a case about BlueyD, but it was very forced and weak. Things were taken out of context to make them look scummy, and things that weren't scummy were meant to look scummy. Such as the leadership thing.
Here is another thing that makes him seem suspicious. He totally ignored talk about the vig shot, until after it was done. He didn't want to push it cause he knew it would make him suspicious, but he didn't want to stop it because he knew sc2system was town. Maybe I should be suspicious for bringing it up, but as a mafia wouldn't that be too risky to do? I think the people we should look at are the people who ignored the topic who were active, these people being: Nova, Seviro, and BlueyD (but he was defending himself)
On March 25 2012 17:10 Nova_Terra wrote: Yeah, If you are the vig artanis you should have waited. We could have had a free mafia death at some point. At least, sc2system was relatively worthless, so it should be a bit easier to go scumhunting. BlueyD, i kind of think the point of the hit on froggynoddy is in essence exactly what you said. he was off the radar, and its hard to read anything from the hit. I will go into his filter today, but i really dont expect to find much, unless its based on WIFOM.
Says you shouldn't have shot, yet didn't say anything during the night when it was actually important.
Also in many instances in this game he is constantly apologetic. Doesn't want to get on anyones bad side, and is just slipping by.
On March 24 2012 06:47 Nova_Terra wrote: I am so sorry, i got caught up in a game of quake. I really feel bad. Mementoss, the main thing thats changed is that i am trying hard to not let behaviors bother me and change the way i play. I took a lot of flak last time around, and while i am still trying to be active and helpful i dont want to go all out aggression because i will get too caught up like last time. even to the point of deluding myself that i was totally right. I defended artanis because i think that it was an innocent mistake, albeit a bad one. For my reasons previously stated, i am voting for Rise of Fenix. his play is not helping us at all, and i do not find artanis or anyone else (until i analyze the filters hard tomorrow morning) more suspicious. ##Vote: Rise of Fenix
On March 24 2012 06:52 Nova_Terra wrote: Wow, i really messed up the time. Once again, sorry all, I promise that i will stick to it for sure next time. I will be on for another hour or so.
On March 25 2012 07:23 Nova_Terra wrote: Oh, sorry. I didnt read over the thread while i wrote it and was going by filters. I did understand that he had a reason for it. I just didnt think that the reason made much sense when he had said that he would vote for RoF if he didnt contribute. As Artanis just said, I do find the manner in which he tried to take leadership to be scummy. He has been guiding the town towards a certain lynch from this position, without being forced to post much analysis, which i think is a result of having made a couple posts that seemed to be from an authoritative position. Another thing that i did not like from this is that as he is seemingly capable, he isnt posting as much content as i think he could be, like what i should have noticed about you last game mementoss. Prelim votes is OK with me, but i think that as much of the town is relatively inactive getting a clear consensus right away will be a bit challenging. I also dont want people to leave a prelim vote and forget about it until relatively late in the day because of this inactivity. Please stay active! We cant just let scum lurk this out.
On March 25 2012 05:50 Nova_Terra wrote: sorry, got ninja'ed, i meant that to be for BlueyD.
Overall his play is just spammy, hes not taking the town forward, his meta is completely off his vanilla. He has had one unique opinion in 3 pages of filter. He seems to be just the one asking the questions, and apologizing. Rather than analysing play and applying pressure. He is taking the town in circles. He is probably in the scum QT posting huge plans, while in here just spamming up the thread.
The only reason I would think he was town, is because he defended Artanis's scum slip, and now it is shaping up for Artanis to be town. Other than that, I would be very sure this guy is scum. Maybe he just defended Artanis, to stay away from the same opinion of his scumbuddy seviro, who quickly after Artanis's case on him OMGUS'd and voted Artanis. But that is just WIFOM.
Mementoss: He was the first one to make a real case against Rise Of Fenix which really started the train rolling in my opinion. While Rise was doing a great job of sinking himself into bad and bad post, peolple started to look more into it after this case. He also was the first one to point out sc2system lurkerness.These two people had already been mentionned beforehand, respectively by Gossemer and Ninja4ever. My point is, not that it mean anything since it was the same for a lot of people, his two main suspect flipped town which is worth pointing out I think.
Now, this is not scummy in itself but I also saw a little inconsistency in his posting.
On March 22 2012 20:41 Mementoss wrote: Therefore, I say we lynch a lurker/useless poster day 1, unless we have a significant scum slip. Why is this beneifical to us the town, even though there is a good chance it will be a townie? 1) Helps narrow down the field for scum hunting later 2) Keeps the active ratio higher for discussion 3) Attempts to keep replacements out of the game, which are always difficult to read and deal with as one persons scum meta =/= the other persons. .
Then, later he is the one who notice the slip of artanis
Note the bolded/underlined, its both because its a very big mistake. A very big scum slip. Why is it such a huge deal? Because we have no clue if Nova_Terra is town. AT ALL. Here are the possibilities:
1) He is scum, he knows peoples roles, therefore he knows Nova_Terra is town. Slipped it by mistake. 2) He is scum, Nova_Terra is scum, he is quick to give the idea to the rest that Nova is confirmed town, when there is no proof behind it. Just saying it because Nova is active. 3) He is town, bad town play, making assumptions that lead to town not exploring all the possibilities, getting tunnelled away from someone (See me as mafia SNMM VIII)
Dat scum slip
If we follow his reasoning, At this point Artanis had 66% chance of being a scum but even then he didn't put a vote even after:
On March 24 2012 05:24 Mementoss wrote: @Artanis, I don't believe your defense, but its not enough to warrant a day 1 lynch. Now that I have given Seviro a chance to defend, your case against him seemed weak to me. It was basically him discussing things that were going on in the thread, while they were important, don't see how this is scummy.
He point out the slip, don't believe the defense, have stated in his first post that he would vote a lurker/useless poster unless a scum slip like this happened, be even then he doesn't put his vote on him once.
Now, since Artanis is a confirmed townie now (unless a counter claim but at this point I doubt it), it is not inherently scummy but these littles inconsistencies are worth mentionning if we want to scum hunt effectively.
My main suspect now is Micaelthe: Here is Froggy post about his early game so I won't have to repeat it.
Additionally, I would suggest we open with a lurker lynch strategy. Stating our willingness to lynch a lurker should force activity. If push comes to shove, we must follow through, but hopefully it will force no lurkers. I know mafia tips suggest policy lynches are bad, but I think it's hard to get the ball rolling in newbie games.
I've been reading FAQs and strategy and whatnot (I missed getting last game by a bit :/) but still had to look up OMGUS. So here is a webpage I found useful: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Main_Page
I would still like to go back and read the opening day of some of the newbie games. I will do this regardless, but I think it would be beneficial for those that played in those newbie games to go back, reread, and offer analysis of those games as well (or even if you didn't play like me!) My point is we can't analyze players who haven't played any games very accurately, but we can analyze strategy of past newbie games.
Your third point is some very weak finger pointing:
I know it is hard to contribute on Day1 in a newbie game, but again, the only way to force... is to force it... Post anything of value to this game of mafia. Even a weak thought about who looks suspicious, who doesn't, if you think we should day1 lynch etc.
Posts that say nothing "HI GUYS" are equal to not posting in my book. As are posts simply agreeing with another post. Try and post some original thought, regardless of how weak it is.
I've made a spreadsheet with posts and ranked posts according to a day1-content scale I made. These are the three lowest people:
1)sc2system 2)Ninja4ever 3)Froggynoddy
You all have posts, but not enough substance!
ULTIMATUM: Post something of value within 8 hours or you are getting my vote!
There is pretty much nothing to go by. Your content is zilch, you are putting suspicion on people who have more content than you; I have argued that forcing lurkers to post is beneficial to town, more convincingly than you have (as has seviro and to a certain extent Nova_Terra), yet you put a really weak case forward against three posters.
I'm not voting for you YET but you seriously need to shape up. Accusing players who have posted content in day 1 seems scummy to me as there is so little to go by.
On March 23 2012 06:16 michaelthe wrote: I know it is hard to contribute on Day1 in a newbie game, but again, the only way to force... is to force it... Post anything of value to this game of mafia. Even a weak thought about who looks suspicious, who doesn't, if you think we should day1 lynch etc.
Posts that say nothing "HI GUYS" are equal to not posting in my book. As are posts simply agreeing with another post. Try and post some original thought, regardless of how weak it is.
I've made a spreadsheet with posts and ranked posts according to a day1-content scale I made. These are the three lowest people:
1)sc2system 2)Ninja4ever 3)Froggynoddy
You all have posts, but not enough substance!
ULTIMATUM: Post something of value within 8 hours or you are getting my vote!
How in the world is Fenix not number one on this list?
Actually, completely by accident. He should be below sc2system and ninja, but above froggy.
I was tracking posts by quality and page by assigning a value to each post from 0 (greeting, basic chatter), 1 (very basic, but maybe an opinion), 2 (basic thoughts), or 3 (solid attempt at analysis for day1). Best I could do for day1... I suspect filters and exact content will matter more on day 2 or 3+
The scores are as follows:
sc2system: 0,0 (a few posts on day1 I lumpped I think) Ninja: 0,0 Froggy: 0,1,1
And, as you said and I missed: Fenix: 1,1 (Argentina)
So I will add him to the list, I guess in fairness I will give him 8 hours from this post, so an extra 40 minutes or whatever
On March 23 2012 06:22 Nova_Terra wrote: michaelthe could you make that 12 hours for them? some of them might live in europe and they have my sympathy. Also would everyone be okay with a 6 hour soft deadline?
not much of an ultimatum if I change it 5 minutes later!
You're Euro.. what time is it there?
Then his first actual vote happen 23 hour after his ultimatum whereas he said an ultimatum of 8 hour more so that he vote for someone that is not on his list.
Which lead me to talk about the "Feudian slip" as he calls it.
He seems to insist a lot on this than needed, now that we already had ROS and sc2system under the radar he bring back a point that had been discuss hours before as if since ROS and sc2system where dead men walking at this stage if he could change day 1 lynch then day 2 and 3 would have been a big mess for the town.
I'll point out also that he was not the first to vote for Artanis since my vote was still on him and most of his opinion were mostly reformulating. Then, at the end of the day he just follow the bandwagon as he see that Artanis won't get lynched.
Sorry for the lenght of the post, longer than expected.
Here is another thing that makes him seem suspicious. He totally ignored talk about the vig shot, until after it was done. He didn't want to push it cause he knew it would make him suspicious, but he didn't want to stop it because he knew sc2system was town. Maybe I should be suspicious for bringing it up, but as a mafia wouldn't that be too risky to do? I think the people we should look at are the people who ignored the topic who were active, these people being: Nova, Seviro, and BlueyD (but he was defending himself)
I had no position on this, and since it seems that I don'T have opinion or I just use others argument I might as well just not post.
On the Nova topic, I won't say much since I'll wait for him to defend himself but I just want to point out that his last game's meta caused his downfall pretty badly so he might just be trying something else. But your apologizing point is a good one, it seems that he want to please to everyone and be kind of passive.
I'm sorry I was inactive the past 24 hours, rl was busy (still is for the next 12 hours, but daughter is sleeping). I also didn't expect as much discussion in the night phases.
This is going to be long post, we actually have a good bit to go over!
Night 1 Results: I was initially surprised to see a vig shot on a townie, but it quickly became apparent that this was a great call by Artanis. I would have been going at his throat today due to his slip. Artanis basically proved it was a typo, as he claimed. Artanis is now pretty confirmed town. He also picked his target well. Sc2 was at best an anti-town townie.
Initial Day 2 Thoughts At the end of day1, I reread the argument between Seviro and Artanis. While I was pretty sure Artanis was scum, I thought Seviro's reponse was absurd. I came to the conclusion that one of these two were most likely scum... Since Artanis is now mostly-confirmed, the attack on Seviro gained another look.
I came today and read and took notes the last 3 pages or so. While reading Night1, I noticed that Goss was the only one to suggest before AND after that sc2 vig hit wasn't good. This was in my notes, but I actually didnt too think much of it until Artanis posted something.
Artanis posted a list of 3 ppl. I am going to attack the other two on that list. I know this looks scummy (zomg, Im on a list of 3, look at them 2, not me!), but I think people will see me being reasonable rather than overly-defense on the attack on Seviro/Goss. I already posted that these two aroused my suspicion. My reasons above and below should be clear.
Defense from Artanis Artanis makes two points: 1) I defended Fenix as probable town: There were two clear options: He was terrible town, or he was terrible scum. What made me think he was just terrible town is because he was confused on multiple issues regarding the rules and terms in Mafia. He wasn't playing scummy, he was playing confused. I made the case that sc2 was a better lynch, but it was clear we had two useless players, either of them wasn't bad. I think most people weren't surprised when Fenix flipped town, but everyone was fine with that. 2) You call it a change in play style when I went from analytical to jumping on you hard for your slip. I much prefer an analytical style- rather, thats how I think. I would suggest jumping on you was objective. Everything I know and have read about mafia points out that your slip was the largest scum slip in the book. I could imagine mafia vets coming and analyzing the game and saying “WTF, NO ONE CAUGHT ARTANIS' SLIP?!?!” You yourself admitted it was a giant slip. Jumping on it was objectively a good thing. If you want more, let me know.
On Seviro:
(This is based heavily on his filter, pull it up if you want to see specific posts, this is already long enough without them all) First substantial post after initial wave of basic crap:
On March 23 2012 08:10 Seviro wrote: EBWOP, If we agree that everyone should have a vote posted at a set time before the deadline (since no one disagreed right now let's say 8 to 6 hour) we can then make a better choice for the lynch of this day and if someone fail to do so then he is most likely to be proposed as a lunch candidate.
He is suggesting a policy lynch based on not voting within an 8 hour deadline. The reason policy lynches are bad is because it removes analysis and focuses only on the policy. This one specifically means someone would be a lynch target simply for voting 4 hours from the deadline rather than 8. If you get scum to meet the deadline, the scum get a free town kill.
Seviro's reponse to Artanis Attack. I was fairly certain Artanis was scum, after what I saw as a strong slip. But I think the vig claim was great (more on that later). I reread the Artanis / Servio post and thought Artanis' attack was simple (based on day1 stuffs..) but Serviro WAY overreacted with his defense. He went on to vote for Artanis in his defense, which is a TERRBIE move!
FOUR minutes later he states a willingness to go after Fenix...
After the Fenix train picks up some steam, he totally forgets about Artanis.
Then he changes OFF Artanis and... onto Virtu, for not being active enough. His acusations are extremely fickle. He ends the day by jumping on the same train as everyone, Fenix.
After Day1, he posts that he thinks sc2system is town. He has defended bad play of Fenix and SC2 as town. ONLY MAFIA KNOW WHO TOWNIES ARE!
On March 25 2012 06:39 BlueyD wrote: And I didn't like that he had a "pressure but no lynch" opinion on lurkers at first, but then switched his vote to Virtu for his period of inactivity, despite many ok Virtu posts before. "Flexible in opinion" is how I'd describe Seviro, and that's not a compliment...
This is what I meant by pressure but not necessarly lynch, I put my vote on him and then he came and posted his thought so I switched back. This is what I call pressure play.
He discusses the virtu vote as “pressure”. A vote with nothing behind it, with no case, nothing. He doesn't at all revisit his Artanis vote here.
His most recent posts finally address the Artanis vote, his reasoning is ABSURD:
On March 25 2012 22:54 Artanis[Xp] wrote: .He also used a chainsaw argument against me after I accused him, voting me for little reason seemingly only because I voted on him and some minor suspicions. Regardless of alignment, that's bad.
I don't think it was a "chainsaw argument" as you say because I did defend myself. I just thought "ok, he took all my post out of context so let's do the same thing with him". I know that was a bad play, but your accusations were meaningless so I just kind of did the same.
Now i'm gonna go read some filter and I'll post some of my thought after, especially Mementoss, a lot of people seem to think that he his almost confirmed town and given last game scenario, I don't like that. So brb in some hours.
He says it wasn't a chainsaw defense, but then pretty much describes a chainsaw defense. We have all been discussing the initial Seviro/Artanis issue, I think Seviro would rather see it buried.
On Gossemerr:
What really caught me off was him talking about the vig shot. Before and after the vig shot he thinks its a terrible idea.
On March 25 2012 12:07 Gossemerr wrote: Wow... fail vig shot.. I was too damn late. Now I slightly suspicious of Mem and Virtu. Entirely WIFOM, but makes me wonder.
On March 25 2012 11:56 Gossemerr wrote: Are you SERIOUSLY suggesting that our vig should shoot someone who is possibly not a mafia? You would ACTUALLY want to waste a mafia kill on a bad town player? I think sc2system is playing either bad scum or town right now, as my older posts suggest, but why does he HAVE to die right now? Maybe Day 2 he will actually contribute.
First, here is why its a good vig shot: 1) Artanis had a LOT of heat on him (at least in mind) due to a big mistake of calling someone a townie (which only Mafia could know). Artanis is now the most confirmed town we have. 2) sc2system was either a anti-town townie (useless posts, wanting to confuse ppl, etc.) or scum. A vig shot on him isn't bad in either case. A townie posting anti-town crap is useless. Even more useless if they get modkilled later for inactivity!
Further more, it is particularly absurd that Goss would dislike this vig shot because Goss' ONLY attack has been agasint sc2system! Why would be pro-lynch on him and not pro-vig hit!?
I think Goss thinks it's pro-town to frown upon a vig shot hitting a green, and therefore did. Everyone else was pretty much in consensus that it was a good vig shot.
Conclusion I think this is terribly scummy from both Seviro and Goss. Seviro wanted his bad play buried, he ignored it mostly, and then defended it poorly. Goss made a big mistake of being the only person to go against the vig hit, despite making a case agasint the target! He went against the vig hit because he thinks it's pro-town to frown upon the vig accidently killing a green.
Right now I would vote for either of these, I think they both made major mistakes. If I could vote twice, I would. I'm starting with Seviro because I think it's too his advantage to have more time past from his mistakes so he can bury them. Also, he has already tried, and failed, to cover up his bad play, Goss hasn't had a full chance to defend himself.
It took my daugthers entire nap to type this up, and I missed the last few posts. I will be able to read a bit, but not respond much (typing while holding a 14mo old doesnt end well) until tonight.
one last note before I'm out for a bit. If anyone wants me to respond to Seviro, I will- but it seems to me like he is forcing really weak cases to try and bury his terrible play and Artanis issue. Both his cases are rather poor and forced.
Initial Day 2 Thoughts At the end of day1, I reread the argument between Seviro and Artanis. While I was pretty sure Artanis was scum, I thought Seviro's reponse was absurd. I came to the conclusion that one of these two were most likely scum... Since Artanis is now mostly-confirmed, the attack on Seviro gained another look.
On Seviro:
(This is based heavily on his filter, pull it up if you want to see specific posts, this is already long enough without them all) First substantial post after initial wave of basic crap:
On March 23 2012 08:10 Seviro wrote: EBWOP, If we agree that everyone should have a vote posted at a set time before the deadline (since no one disagreed right now let's say 8 to 6 hour) we can then make a better choice for the lynch of this day and if someone fail to do so then he is most likely to be proposed as a lunch candidate.
He is suggesting a policy lynch based on not voting within an 8 hour deadline. The reason policy lynches are bad is because it removes analysis and focuses only on the policy. This one specifically means someone would be a lynch target simply for voting 4 hours from the deadline rather than 8. If you get scum to meet the deadline, the scum get a free town kill.
Seviro's reponse to Artanis Attack. I was fairly certain Artanis was scum, after what I saw as a strong slip. But I think the vig claim was great (more on that later). I reread the Artanis / Servio post and thought Artanis' attack was simple (based on day1 stuffs..) but Serviro WAY overreacted with his defense. He went on to vote for Artanis in his defense, which is a TERRBIE move!
FOUR minutes later he states a willingness to go after Fenix...
After the Fenix train picks up some steam, he totally forgets about Artanis.
Then he changes OFF Artanis and... onto Virtu, for not being active enough. His acusations are extremely fickle. He ends the day by jumping on the same train as everyone, Fenix.
After Day1, he posts that he thinks sc2system is town. He has defended bad play of Fenix and SC2 as town. ONLY MAFIA KNOW WHO TOWNIES ARE!
On March 25 2012 06:39 BlueyD wrote: And I didn't like that he had a "pressure but no lynch" opinion on lurkers at first, but then switched his vote to Virtu for his period of inactivity, despite many ok Virtu posts before. "Flexible in opinion" is how I'd describe Seviro, and that's not a compliment...
This is what I meant by pressure but not necessarly lynch, I put my vote on him and then he came and posted his thought so I switched back. This is what I call pressure play.
He discusses the virtu vote as “pressure”. A vote with nothing behind it, with no case, nothing. He doesn't at all revisit his Artanis vote here.
His most recent posts finally address the Artanis vote, his reasoning is ABSURD:
On March 25 2012 22:54 Artanis[Xp] wrote: .He also used a chainsaw argument against me after I accused him, voting me for little reason seemingly only because I voted on him and some minor suspicions. Regardless of alignment, that's bad.
I don't think it was a "chainsaw argument" as you say because I did defend myself. I just thought "ok, he took all my post out of context so let's do the same thing with him". I know that was a bad play, but your accusations were meaningless so I just kind of did the same.
Now i'm gonna go read some filter and I'll post some of my thought after, especially Mementoss, a lot of people seem to think that he his almost confirmed town and given last game scenario, I don't like that. So brb in some hours.
He says it wasn't a chainsaw defense, but then pretty much describes a chainsaw defense. We have all been discussing the initial Seviro/Artanis issue, I think Seviro would rather see it buried.
Initial Day 2 Thoughts At the end of day1, I reread the argument between Seviro and Artanis. While I was pretty sure Artanis was scum, I thought Seviro's reponse was absurd. I came to the conclusion that one of these two were most likely scum... Since Artanis is now mostly-confirmed, the attack on Seviro gained another look.
That is purely WIFOM.
He is suggesting a policy lynch based on not voting within an 8 hour deadline. The reason policy lynches are bad is because it removes analysis and focuses only on the policy. This one specifically means someone would be a lynch target simply for voting 4 hours from the deadline rather than 8. If you get scum to meet the deadline, the scum get a free town kill.
It doesn't mean it at all, let's say a 8 or even a 6 hour dealine, you had 40-42 to come up with a vote at this point in the day you should have your opinion anyway. It is in no way final but this way we can have an organized town and we have actually enough time to discuss each vote.
FOUR minutes later he states a willingness to go after Fenix...
After the Fenix train picks up some steam, he totally forgets about Artanis.
What are you talking about?. Literally all the EFFING day I've been DEFENDING Fenix in hope that he would come up with something useful, which didn'T happen.
Then he changes OFF Artanis and... onto Virtu, for not being active enough. His acusations are extremely fickle. He ends the day by jumping on the same train as everyone, Fenix.
Virtu had promised us a post which was not there at the time, after he did post I switch my vote onto Fenix since his post were making less and less sense.
After Day1, he posts that he thinks sc2system is town. He has defended bad play of Fenix and SC2 as town. ONLY MAFIA KNOW WHO TOWNIES ARE!
On March 24 2012 23:54 michaelthe wrote:
It was more or less expected that we'd get a bad townie on day 1. I thought it was pretty clear he was bad town rather than mafia, but just a really bad town who couldn't even vote in the right format last minute that would have saved him.
You must be scum right? Just because I think something and it come down that I was right it doesn't mean anything.
He says it wasn't a chainsaw defense, but then pretty much describes a chainsaw defense. We have all been discussing the initial Seviro/Artanis issue, I think Seviro would rather see it buried.
On March 25 2012 22:54 Artanis[Xp] wrote: (if you don't know, a chainsaw argument is accusing the accuser rather than defending yourself)..
I did not accuse him rather than defending myself, I did defend myself then I accused him, this is werew the difference lies.
If you have other question about this Artanis/Seviro thing feel free to ask.
EBWOP: I want to have to my case against micael that he seems to be picking off obvious target.
On day 1, there was an occasion to accuse Artanis so he jumped on it and when he saw that he was not going to be lynched he switched to ROS as he was the lynch candidate but he never ceased to mention sc2system, another lynch candidate.
Now on day 2, since Artanis is most probably the Vig and that ROS and sc2system are gone, he is targetting me who have been under the spotlight for quite a while.
So let's look at who was brought up recently : seviro, Michaelthe, Gossemerr and nova. I find the cases on michaelthe and gossemerr to be very weak, while the one on nova and Seviro to be clearly the most appealing, with nova being slightly more suspect. The thing being, I have a two pages short story to write for tommorow, so I won't be able to correctly expand on why as I lack in time. here are some explanations though :
Mementoss case on nova was great. At this point it doesn't matter even matter wether or not Mementoss is scummy, I find his explanation to be too good.
Seviro lack of content in his posts and overall undeciveness make him look like someone that want to add chaos to the thread, very scummy like.
Michaelthe, mostly suspected because he's " repeating too much stuff " which I find to be the least important tell when there's so few information to work with, in the beginning stage. He just seem like someone who doesn't have so much time and wanted to show he's active cause of the lurker pressure. Also suspected because he was quick to jump on artanis bandwagon, which was to me one of the two most logical thing to do at the time (the other one being voting against RoF)
Gossemerr : mostly suspected because he wanted to lynch sc2system but not vigkill him. Don't think it's telling, as artanis said the fact that sc2system turned out green makes it kinda irrevelant, and he might have simply thought that sc2system wasn't suspect enough to waste one vighit.
I won't be much more active tommorow sadly, but will be a lot more from monday night !
For now : ##Vote: Nova_Terra
But it can greatly change depending on nova's and seviro's defense.
On March 26 2012 02:27 Mementoss wrote: Alright, this activity is bad, its day 2 its crucial we get a mafia kill here. Lets up the activity and find one of these scum. With that being said Im going to present a case right now. Lets look at the filter shall we?
Nova_Terra:
His meta is completely different. He explained that he changing the way he plays to improve his game. As vanilla town, he had long thought out posts, and pressure posts. In this game I read through his first 2 pages of filter, it 50% spam. The other 50% is dedicated to either responding to people, or asking peoples opinions on things usually leading the town in circles. Honestly, I can't even find anything to quote because its all useless.
He seems to be posting in fear and holding back. He posts a case about BlueyD, but it was very forced and weak. Things were taken out of context to make them look scummy, and things that weren't scummy were meant to look scummy. Such as the leadership thing.
Here is another thing that makes him seem suspicious. He totally ignored talk about the vig shot, until after it was done. He didn't want to push it cause he knew it would make him suspicious, but he didn't want to stop it because he knew sc2system was town. Maybe I should be suspicious for bringing it up, but as a mafia wouldn't that be too risky to do? I think the people we should look at are the people who ignored the topic who were active, these people being: Nova, Seviro, and BlueyD (but he was defending himself)
On March 25 2012 17:10 Nova_Terra wrote: Yeah, If you are the vig artanis you should have waited. We could have had a free mafia death at some point. At least, sc2system was relatively worthless, so it should be a bit easier to go scumhunting. BlueyD, i kind of think the point of the hit on froggynoddy is in essence exactly what you said. he was off the radar, and its hard to read anything from the hit. I will go into his filter today, but i really dont expect to find much, unless its based on WIFOM.
Says you shouldn't have shot, yet didn't say anything during the night when it was actually important.
Also in many instances in this game he is constantly apologetic. Doesn't want to get on anyones bad side, and is just slipping by.
On March 24 2012 06:47 Nova_Terra wrote: I am so sorry, i got caught up in a game of quake. I really feel bad. Mementoss, the main thing thats changed is that i am trying hard to not let behaviors bother me and change the way i play. I took a lot of flak last time around, and while i am still trying to be active and helpful i dont want to go all out aggression because i will get too caught up like last time. even to the point of deluding myself that i was totally right. I defended artanis because i think that it was an innocent mistake, albeit a bad one. For my reasons previously stated, i am voting for Rise of Fenix. his play is not helping us at all, and i do not find artanis or anyone else (until i analyze the filters hard tomorrow morning) more suspicious. ##Vote: Rise of Fenix
On March 24 2012 06:52 Nova_Terra wrote: Wow, i really messed up the time. Once again, sorry all, I promise that i will stick to it for sure next time. I will be on for another hour or so.
On March 25 2012 07:23 Nova_Terra wrote: Oh, sorry. I didnt read over the thread while i wrote it and was going by filters. I did understand that he had a reason for it. I just didnt think that the reason made much sense when he had said that he would vote for RoF if he didnt contribute. As Artanis just said, I do find the manner in which he tried to take leadership to be scummy. He has been guiding the town towards a certain lynch from this position, without being forced to post much analysis, which i think is a result of having made a couple posts that seemed to be from an authoritative position. Another thing that i did not like from this is that as he is seemingly capable, he isnt posting as much content as i think he could be, like what i should have noticed about you last game mementoss. Prelim votes is OK with me, but i think that as much of the town is relatively inactive getting a clear consensus right away will be a bit challenging. I also dont want people to leave a prelim vote and forget about it until relatively late in the day because of this inactivity. Please stay active! We cant just let scum lurk this out.
On March 25 2012 05:50 Nova_Terra wrote: sorry, got ninja'ed, i meant that to be for BlueyD.
Overall his play is just spammy, hes not taking the town forward, his meta is completely off his vanilla. He has had one unique opinion in 3 pages of filter. He seems to be just the one asking the questions, and apologizing. Rather than analysing play and applying pressure. He is taking the town in circles. He is probably in the scum QT posting huge plans, while in here just spamming up the thread.
The only reason I would think he was town, is because he defended Artanis's scum slip, and now it is shaping up for Artanis to be town. Other than that, I would be very sure this guy is scum. Maybe he just defended Artanis, to stay away from the same opinion of his scumbuddy seviro, who quickly after Artanis's case on him OMGUS'd and voted Artanis. But that is just WIFOM.
##Vote: Nova_Terra
Ok. I just went over last game briefly. Starting off with, i made an apparently "bad move" by FoS'ing somebody early. Then, i got mad and frustrated, and ended up spamming defense posts and some OMGUS. At least in the pages i read, i was responding to people calling me out and playing aggressively because i was lashing out at people. After last game, i learned that i wanted to play in a more "emotionless" manner where it wouldnt screw me up and cause me to post cases and analysis that goes totally incorrect because my mind wanted to lynch them for even daring to accuse something i did to be bad or wrong. I wanted to play more like Mementoss (which is a bad example as he was scum, but still accurate) but he really did seem like a helpful townie, and he just seemed like his behavior never changed when different things happened. His posts didnt have OMGUS, or terrible cases. I wanted to do just that. And that i feel accounts for my meta. My pressure posts made me feel like i didnt actually do anything. We ended up letting a mafia through and a townie die. Yet, I dont even get how it could have helped. We pressured a townie who posted and then left, and he didnt respond and so he died. Then i received flak for switching my vote off him when i thought he was innocent later. All that this reinforced to me was that i shouldnt play the way my brain thinks. because its suspicious, etc.
Enter this game. It starts in a week where i am busy to begin with with many tests, and my brain was scrambled to begin with. And i knew that i wanted to change up my play and play without this emotion crap. Because it was making me scummy. I've been trying to let people know that i agree with them in some issues here, and others there, to make myself as transparent as possible. And then every now and again, when some posts went through me, I went a little into rage mode. Immediately to shut it down, i kinda held back on analysis so i wouldnt let it influence my play, which i realize now makes no sense because by shutting down the analysis it was influencing my play.I was kinda scared about how i would come across because of how i was feeling. Strangely enough, this weekend i have had a relatively busy social schedule. Thats kind of new for me, and i realize this. Then i started missing deadlines (that i myself had made) and just not posting on time, making stupid lapses in judgement (like not reading the thread alongside filters and taking BlueyD's post out of context) as a result of me being out and about and/or playing games with friends. And i feel so bad about it, because i really didnt want to come off as suspicious but because of these little things i found that i was coming across in that manner, at least to myself, and thats why i've been apologising. Its so hard to be transparent when i was screwing up these little things, and i feel bad for making it so hard on the other townies to read me.
However, i was spending some time looking over filters. I still maintain that i find the leadership thing to be scummy. I cant remember if i explained why i did in a previous post, but please ask if you want me to again. Dont want to waste space if i dont have to.
Looking over the case, it definitely felt to me like it was certainly warranted and some things were suspicious, but it also felt like my case on seviro last game. I dont get why my analysis is apparently so bad, but all i know is that im trying to put tons of effort on these cases and nobodys really agreeing with it and it doesnt do anything.it feels terrible to be putting all the time and feeling into it and having it do nothing. Last night i came in after an exciting day out in the city, and finished my case, and then decided to relax for a little while and watch some MLG. yeah, i did see something about vigilante shot on sc2system, but at the time wasnt concerned about it and actually thought that it made sense as we wouldnt waste the day arguing about him (which i didnt post because people were taking flak for making posts to just agree with people), and only when i was literally falling asleep did i realize that the vigilante shot is pretty much a free kill against mafia if its used right, and didnt feel like getting up to go post to state my opinion. Not because i knew system was town or anything like that, I was just too damn tired around 1 in the morning. Which was another thing that i apologized for as i should have gotten up to do that.
So, to end this defense, I want to add my reads on everybody so far. Mementoss: Leaning far town, seems very inno which scares me as thats how i was thinking last game. Seviro: leaning scum, actually. I hope to provide analysis on him tonight or tomorrow during the day. artanis: most likely to be town, at least in my eyes Virtu: Relatively null. I havent really gotten any vibes from him at all. Posts some analysis (of last games play etc) but doesnt really seem to do much with it at least in my eyes. Nova_Terra (yes i am putting myself on my own list): null. hard to read because of not posting thoughts when they seem to arise. Michaelthe: null leaning scummy. makes some posts that i find were pretty good early game, but then he just randomly drops off and doesnt post much. One thing in his favor in my eyes is how he has been playing aggressively. Gossemerr: Null leaning town. I like the aggressiveness however. Ninja4ever.:Null. not a very active player, but he does come and post his thoughts a couple times a day. I dont like his activity however. BlueyD: Null leaning scummy. I still think my points on the position he has been taking in the game are valid, and i find that he got defensive pretty dang fast.
Well, it mostly seems like an apologetic post about playing different then normal. You said you've been holding back on analysis yet you come up with a massive post that basically details why you haven't been posting up to par. Instead of apologizing for it, go do some more analyzing! You're currently the prime suspect, so get a better case on someone else.
Thats what i am trying to do with both my reads on the bottom and how i am working on adding my thoughts on seviro. Yeah, it is an apologetic post about playing different than normal, as that is what seems to be accounting for the case against me. Main points against me seem to be meta difference, posting in fear, and ignoring vigi shot talk until after it was over, and i kinda think i addressed those.
I feel like we are going in circles. But here we go:
On March 25 2012 22:54 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Gossemerr opened in a joking way, then creates the RoF lynch train based on RoF's post making not much sense. This play I think is fine if he was town too though. Jumps from RoF to sc2system a bit too easily too after RoF was confirmed town. It also makes sense that one Mafia would want to start the bandwagons while the other two 'reluctantly' post to lynch him in the end so that the mafia aren't connected as much. This however is more of a general mafia argument then specifically for Gossemerr. Accuses sc2system again for playing dumb when it's become pretty apparent that he's just not a very good townie. Uses chainsaw argument when I accuse him which is a super scummy thing to do (if you don't know, a chainsaw argument is accusing the accuser rather than defending yourself). This is something Seviro used earlier too. It's true that he started the bandwagon on RoF. What I also find weird is that he first calls for sc2system to get killed, then doesn't want the vigilante to kill sc2system after all. Given he flipped town that does make Gossemerr less suspicious, but he said it so late that it was unlikely that any vigilante would still change their target so I'm not sure it matters too much. Reading over this again though I'd say Gossemerr is the weakest case of the three.
To all of you out there, please analyze these three people well. To Seviro, michaelthe and Gossemerr; refute these points and analyze the others to make your case that you are indeed townie. The best way to defend yourself is to contribute. Given that I'm going to be the only one in this game you can trust, you'll know I'm not trying to redirect you onto players that aren't scum. Let's see if we can turn this around. I've got a lot of work I need to do today though so I can't guarantee I can react to any posts quickly.
I think I pretty much explained all this already. I didn't use a "chainsaw argument," was just pointing out how you were attacking me and others without much evidence. Also per your definition, and considering that I did defend myself, I once again did not just accuse you. Next:
On March 26 2012 03:10 michaelthe wrote:
On Gossemerr:
What really caught me off was him talking about the vig shot. Before and after the vig shot he thinks its a terrible idea.
On March 25 2012 12:07 Gossemerr wrote: Wow... fail vig shot.. I was too damn late. Now I slightly suspicious of Mem and Virtu. Entirely WIFOM, but makes me wonder.
On March 25 2012 11:56 Gossemerr wrote: Are you SERIOUSLY suggesting that our vig should shoot someone who is possibly not a mafia? You would ACTUALLY want to waste a mafia kill on a bad town player? I think sc2system is playing either bad scum or town right now, as my older posts suggest, but why does he HAVE to die right now? Maybe Day 2 he will actually contribute.
First, here is why its a good vig shot: 1) Artanis had a LOT of heat on him (at least in mind) due to a big mistake of calling someone a townie (which only Mafia could know). Artanis is now the most confirmed town we have. 2) sc2system was either a anti-town townie (useless posts, wanting to confuse ppl, etc.) or scum. A vig shot on him isn't bad in either case. A townie posting anti-town crap is useless. Even more useless if they get modkilled later for inactivity!
Further more, it is particularly absurd that Goss would dislike this vig shot because Goss' ONLY attack has been agasint sc2system! Why would be pro-lynch on him and not pro-vig hit!?
I think Goss thinks it's pro-town to frown upon a vig shot hitting a green, and therefore did. Everyone else was pretty much in consensus that it was a good vig shot.
Conclusion I think this is terribly scummy from both Seviro and Goss. Seviro wanted his bad play buried, he ignored it mostly, and then defended it poorly. Goss made a big mistake of being the only person to go against the vig hit, despite making a case agasint the target! He went against the vig hit because he thinks it's pro-town to frown upon the vig accidently killing a green.
Right now I would vote for either of these, I think they both made major mistakes. If I could vote twice, I would. I'm starting with Seviro because I think it's too his advantage to have more time past from his mistakes so he can bury them. Also, he has already tried, and failed, to cover up his bad play, Goss hasn't had a full chance to defend himself.
##Vote: Seviro
So if I disagree that using the vig shot on someone who is maybe town (now confirmed), that is scummy to you? Don't see the reasoning there. And in my reasoning I said maybe he would have stepped up his game, who knows what could have been happening IRL. Also, I would not say that EVERYONE was in a consensus, only a few have any said anything about the vig shot being a good idea. I can see why Artansis would want to save his own ass, but we still wasted a potentially free mafia kill. Moving on, I never voted for sc2system so how would that indicate that I was pro-lynch? I really don't see how I made a "major mistake," by thinking the vig shot was not a good idea. I tried to post as soon as I got home as well, but it was already near the deadline. I really have a hard time following how thinking that the vig shot was bad is somehow making me seem scummy to you.
Anyway, I'm going to analyze the thread and filters and post in a few hours.
Need moar posts, BlueyD said he would be here after barcraft, so Im expecting a post from in the next couple of hours. He hasn't posted since the flip. I think otherwise everyone else had posted some content. Keep the discussion up guys.
Hey Mementoss, I'd like to hear your opinion on what have been said since your last post and if you feel like Nova's response to your accusation was satisfying.
On March 26 2012 02:27 Mementoss wrote: Alright, this activity is bad, its day 2 its crucial we get a mafia kill here. Lets up the activity and find one of these scum. With that being said Im going to present a case right now. Lets look at the filter shall we?
Nova_Terra:
His meta is completely different. He explained that he changing the way he plays to improve his game. As vanilla town, he had long thought out posts, and pressure posts. In this game I read through his first 2 pages of filter, it 50% spam. The other 50% is dedicated to either responding to people, or asking peoples opinions on things usually leading the town in circles. Honestly, I can't even find anything to quote because its all useless.
He seems to be posting in fear and holding back. He posts a case about BlueyD, but it was very forced and weak. Things were taken out of context to make them look scummy, and things that weren't scummy were meant to look scummy. Such as the leadership thing.
Here is another thing that makes him seem suspicious. He totally ignored talk about the vig shot, until after it was done. He didn't want to push it cause he knew it would make him suspicious, but he didn't want to stop it because he knew sc2system was town. Maybe I should be suspicious for bringing it up, but as a mafia wouldn't that be too risky to do? I think the people we should look at are the people who ignored the topic who were active, these people being: Nova, Seviro, and BlueyD (but he was defending himself)
On March 25 2012 17:10 Nova_Terra wrote: Yeah, If you are the vig artanis you should have waited. We could have had a free mafia death at some point. At least, sc2system was relatively worthless, so it should be a bit easier to go scumhunting. BlueyD, i kind of think the point of the hit on froggynoddy is in essence exactly what you said. he was off the radar, and its hard to read anything from the hit. I will go into his filter today, but i really dont expect to find much, unless its based on WIFOM.
Says you shouldn't have shot, yet didn't say anything during the night when it was actually important.
Also in many instances in this game he is constantly apologetic. Doesn't want to get on anyones bad side, and is just slipping by.
On March 24 2012 06:47 Nova_Terra wrote: I am so sorry, i got caught up in a game of quake. I really feel bad. Mementoss, the main thing thats changed is that i am trying hard to not let behaviors bother me and change the way i play. I took a lot of flak last time around, and while i am still trying to be active and helpful i dont want to go all out aggression because i will get too caught up like last time. even to the point of deluding myself that i was totally right. I defended artanis because i think that it was an innocent mistake, albeit a bad one. For my reasons previously stated, i am voting for Rise of Fenix. his play is not helping us at all, and i do not find artanis or anyone else (until i analyze the filters hard tomorrow morning) more suspicious. ##Vote: Rise of Fenix
On March 24 2012 06:52 Nova_Terra wrote: Wow, i really messed up the time. Once again, sorry all, I promise that i will stick to it for sure next time. I will be on for another hour or so.
On March 25 2012 07:23 Nova_Terra wrote: Oh, sorry. I didnt read over the thread while i wrote it and was going by filters. I did understand that he had a reason for it. I just didnt think that the reason made much sense when he had said that he would vote for RoF if he didnt contribute. As Artanis just said, I do find the manner in which he tried to take leadership to be scummy. He has been guiding the town towards a certain lynch from this position, without being forced to post much analysis, which i think is a result of having made a couple posts that seemed to be from an authoritative position. Another thing that i did not like from this is that as he is seemingly capable, he isnt posting as much content as i think he could be, like what i should have noticed about you last game mementoss. Prelim votes is OK with me, but i think that as much of the town is relatively inactive getting a clear consensus right away will be a bit challenging. I also dont want people to leave a prelim vote and forget about it until relatively late in the day because of this inactivity. Please stay active! We cant just let scum lurk this out.
On March 25 2012 05:50 Nova_Terra wrote: sorry, got ninja'ed, i meant that to be for BlueyD.
Overall his play is just spammy, hes not taking the town forward, his meta is completely off his vanilla. He has had one unique opinion in 3 pages of filter. He seems to be just the one asking the questions, and apologizing. Rather than analysing play and applying pressure. He is taking the town in circles. He is probably in the scum QT posting huge plans, while in here just spamming up the thread.
The only reason I would think he was town, is because he defended Artanis's scum slip, and now it is shaping up for Artanis to be town. Other than that, I would be very sure this guy is scum. Maybe he just defended Artanis, to stay away from the same opinion of his scumbuddy seviro, who quickly after Artanis's case on him OMGUS'd and voted Artanis. But that is just WIFOM.
##Vote: Nova_Terra
Ok. I just went over last game briefly. Starting off with, i made an apparently "bad move" by FoS'ing somebody early. Then, i got mad and frustrated, and ended up spamming defense posts and some OMGUS. At least in the pages i read, i was responding to people calling me out and playing aggressively because i was lashing out at people. After last game, i learned that i wanted to play in a more "emotionless" manner where it wouldnt screw me up and cause me to post cases and analysis that goes totally incorrect because my mind wanted to lynch them for even daring to accuse something i did to be bad or wrong. I wanted to play more like Mementoss (which is a bad example as he was scum, but still accurate) but he really did seem like a helpful townie, and he just seemed like his behavior never changed when different things happened. His posts didnt have OMGUS, or terrible cases. I wanted to do just that. And that i feel accounts for my meta. My pressure posts made me feel like i didnt actually do anything. We ended up letting a mafia through and a townie die. Yet, I dont even get how it could have helped. We pressured a townie who posted and then left, and he didnt respond and so he died. Then i received flak for switching my vote off him when i thought he was innocent later. All that this reinforced to me was that i shouldnt play the way my brain thinks. because its suspicious, etc.
Enter this game. It starts in a week where i am busy to begin with with many tests, and my brain was scrambled to begin with. And i knew that i wanted to change up my play and play without this emotion crap. Because it was making me scummy. I've been trying to let people know that i agree with them in some issues here, and others there, to make myself as transparent as possible. And then every now and again, when some posts went through me, I went a little into rage mode. Immediately to shut it down, i kinda held back on analysis so i wouldnt let it influence my play, which i realize now makes no sense because by shutting down the analysis it was influencing my play.I was kinda scared about how i would come across because of how i was feeling. Strangely enough, this weekend i have had a relatively busy social schedule. Thats kind of new for me, and i realize this. Then i started missing deadlines (that i myself had made) and just not posting on time, making stupid lapses in judgement (like not reading the thread alongside filters and taking BlueyD's post out of context) as a result of me being out and about and/or playing games with friends. And i feel so bad about it, because i really didnt want to come off as suspicious but because of these little things i found that i was coming across in that manner, at least to myself, and thats why i've been apologising. Its so hard to be transparent when i was screwing up these little things, and i feel bad for making it so hard on the other townies to read me.
However, i was spending some time looking over filters. I still maintain that i find the leadership thing to be scummy. I cant remember if i explained why i did in a previous post, but please ask if you want me to again. Dont want to waste space if i dont have to.
Looking over the case, it definitely felt to me like it was certainly warranted and some things were suspicious, but it also felt like my case on seviro last game. I dont get why my analysis is apparently so bad, but all i know is that im trying to put tons of effort on these cases and nobodys really agreeing with it and it doesnt do anything.it feels terrible to be putting all the time and feeling into it and having it do nothing. Last night i came in after an exciting day out in the city, and finished my case, and then decided to relax for a little while and watch some MLG. yeah, i did see something about vigilante shot on sc2system, but at the time wasnt concerned about it and actually thought that it made sense as we wouldnt waste the day arguing about him (which i didnt post because people were taking flak for making posts to just agree with people), and only when i was literally falling asleep did i realize that the vigilante shot is pretty much a free kill against mafia if its used right, and didnt feel like getting up to go post to state my opinion. Not because i knew system was town or anything like that, I was just too damn tired around 1 in the morning. Which was another thing that i apologized for as i should have gotten up to do that.
So, to end this defense, I want to add my reads on everybody so far. Mementoss: Leaning far town, seems very inno which scares me as thats how i was thinking last game. Seviro: leaning scum, actually. I hope to provide analysis on him tonight or tomorrow during the day. artanis: most likely to be town, at least in my eyes Virtu: Relatively null. I havent really gotten any vibes from him at all. Posts some analysis (of last games play etc) but doesnt really seem to do much with it at least in my eyes. Nova_Terra (yes i am putting myself on my own list): null. hard to read because of not posting thoughts when they seem to arise. Michaelthe: null leaning scummy. makes some posts that i find were pretty good early game, but then he just randomly drops off and doesnt post much. One thing in his favor in my eyes is how he has been playing aggressively. Gossemerr: Null leaning town. I like the aggressiveness however. Ninja4ever.:Null. not a very active player, but he does come and post his thoughts a couple times a day. I dont like his activity however. BlueyD: Null leaning scummy. I still think my points on the position he has been taking in the game are valid, and i find that he got defensive pretty dang fast.
Alright lets respond to this defense.
First lets start off by underlining everything Nova_Terra said about IRL, and just not read it. Why? IRL stuff has nothing to do with the game, because it can be lied about and no one would know the difference. It is not acceptable as a defense in any form.
You shouldn't be scared to post as a vanilla townie. The only way scum is found is through posting your ideas. Re-read your posts from a different perspective to see how it sounds. No excuse to not be posting analysis. Stick to your guns if you think your right, correct yourself if you think you are wrong and explain why the change of thought. No apologizing needed.
While you maintain your opinion on leadership, I maintain my opinion that it is bullshit. Not only is it not a good scum argument, it could scare BlueyD and other newer players away from posting, because they don't want this "leadershit" stuff to come back and haunt them. And why BlueyD? I would consider myself in that role more than him. I put out a case that lead to a townie lynch, and was the first to suggest a vigshot on another townie. Would I rathered one or both of them to flip scum? Of course. Am I pissed at myself about it? Not really. It did its job at getting rid of 2 confusing shitty players. Confirmed a townie that was leaning scum in a couple peoples eyes. And took a lot of time that woulda been wasted pushing/pressure sc2system and Artanis. Now we can continue with the game. It gained time and added information, 2 very important resources.
About people not agreeing with your case and putting time into it. This game is not being able to be right and finding scum. Its about being able to convince people to agree with your opinions. No matter how much your right about finding scum, if you cant convince the rest of the town, it will not matter. Don't let this discourage you, keep getting better.
About people saying its a free kill against a mafia? No it isn't. You realize how hard it would be for Artanis to survive to a point where it actually would be this situation. Hell we mighta lynched him day 2. At least it wasn't wasted in a death, and helped the town and gave information. Which is helpful at anytime.
Then to end your defense you post something scummy. Ugh. This list is not helpful to me. If your posting with purpose and concisely. You should be able to know someones read on everyone just by reading their filter. The list basically says who you think is scum and half a sentence explanation. Would it not make more sense to just post a post based on the explanation? This doesn't pressure the players, it doesn't generate discussion and is easy way for mafia to "contribute" while he can just put a townie label on his mafia friends and scum on the popular choices.
Im not retracting my vote on you at the moment. Let the discussion continue. I want to see some opinions. We have a relatively good chance of killing a scum today, and it would be huge to do so.
On March 26 2012 10:20 Seviro wrote: Hey Mementoss, I'd like to hear your opinion on what have been said since your last post and if you feel like Nova's response to your accusation was satisfying.
Seems like he's gone, I'll post my present thought on everyone now before heading to bed.
Mementoss: I summed up my thought about him in another post, overall he does seems to be leaning town, good activity and good content. Some people seemed to agree that he is the most townie of us, but since he is not confirmed town, we shouldn't act as if he was. He got us last game because of this, I don't want it to happen a second time.
Micaelthe: The most scummy of us in my opinion, go read my other post to know my reasoning. I'll add that all I had from him after this post is
On March 26 2012 03:20 michaelthe wrote: ebwop:
one last note before I'm out for a bit. If anyone wants me to respond to Seviro, I will- but it seems to me like he is forcing really weak cases to try and bury his terrible play and Artanis issue. Both his cases are rather poor and forced.
Seriously, who does that, I don'T see how my case is not worth an answer.
Artanis[Xp]: Nothing much to say since he is confirmed townie at this stage (since no counter claim of any sort) other than even if he is townie he can be wrong so we need to not blindly agree with what he say.
Virtu:Leaning scum. His only case at the moment is on Gossemer, case that he didn'T even complete because of a fail tabbing. It seems that his suspicion lies in the fact that Gosse as little content when he doesn't not a lot more himself.
Nova_TerraDon't know at all, I'd say slightly leaning scum mostly because of the meta difference from last game as stated by Mementoss. That doesn'T mean much since it was his first game but I feel that his defense have been pointlessly long. He is helping the discussion by asking question which is good but he seems scared when it is his turn to answer which is a scum behaviour, if you have nothing to hide you shouldn't be scared.
Ninja4ever: Hard to tell about him since he missed a whole day of discussion and it seems like he'll miss a big part of tomorrow as well. On day 1 though he got active enough and was giving his opinion on most subject but never really brought up anything new. He did come a bit earlier today to sum up what have been said and to place a vote on Nova and then point out that he will be inactive moost of the day. I can't pronounce myself on him, he seemed townie enough on day 1 but since then he did literally nothing. I know sometimes real life can be a bitch but he he is scum we could be in trouble is we let it pass.
BlueyD: 50/50, On day 1 he was watching the lurker closely and was making sure that no one become inactive for too long. When everyone got some post he post a clear list of ROS scummy behaviour. And after that he pointed out the inconscitencies in sc2masters posting. He end the day by agreeing with the town decision and vote ROS. Since then he didn'T post much except a quick defense about nova's case. And now he is in the same boat as Ninja4ver since he didn'T post today due to being at Barcraft. Until he restart being active nothing much to say about him.
Gossemer:Leaning scum. As other said, not much content on day 1, he started by voting ROS based of one post which he didn't understand the meaning due to it being terribly worded. His argument was that he contradict himself in this post when in fact he was not. He then brielfy mention the confusion thing about sc2system and quickly jump on it in Night 1. From there he've been pricipaly denfending himself briefly pointing out that a vig shot on sc2sustem was bad. Since the only content that he wrote were about ROS and sc2system which both turned out to be town, I am prone to suspect him. He did say that he will post soon so that may change.
Re Seviro Attack You make two points about my ultimatum: 1) 3 out of the 4 people I posted as lurkers are now dead townies. 2) I didn't vote until 23 hours after my 8 hour ultimatum.
Reponses: 1) two are dead because they are bad townines. This is the reason they were on the inactive list, this is the reason they were selected to die. The reason they are dead and on the list of inactives has the same root, this in no way makes their deaths have a causal relationship to my list. This should be completely easy to see by anyone. 2) My ultimatum was an attempt to force lurkers to post. All of them actually posted. Fenix spammed useless content, one said “I'm awake”, one said “Im drunk”. No one strictly failed, it was only mildly successful at making people post.
On Artanis, you make two points: 1) I targest Artanis after we had two good targets to lynch 2) I was the second vote for Artanis, not the first
I refute both of these points with one simple point: Artanis' slip was a major one. Artanis himself said so. Every Mafia guide says so. It ended up being a complete accident, but there was no way to tell this at the time. At the time, this was one of the strongest pieces of objective information we had.
Your claims are terrible, they have no weight, I find them very artificial. There are a few people who have said “oops, that does look scummy”, but I have not with the above. My responses are simple, and straightforward to your meritless claims. I think you are artificially trying to make a case.
So if I disagree that using the vig shot on someone who is maybe town (now confirmed), that is scummy to you? Don't see the reasoning there. And in my reasoning I said maybe he would have stepped up his game, who knows what could have been happening IRL. Also, I would not say that EVERYONE was in a consensus, only a few have any said anything about the vig shot being a good idea. I can see why Artansis would want to save his own ass, but we still wasted a potentially free mafia kill. Moving on, I never voted for sc2system so how would that indicate that I was pro-lynch? I really don't see how I made a "major mistake," by thinking the vig shot was not a good idea. I tried to post as soon as I got home as well, but it was already near the deadline. I really have a hard time following how thinking that the vig shot was bad is somehow making me seem scummy to you.
Anyway, I'm going to analyze the thread and filters and post in a few hours.
sc2system feels like the safer bet to me. Scummy post that I point out above, and then hardcore lurker basically since.
On March 25 2012 02:06 Gossemerr wrote: sc2system is the most scummy candidate in my opinion that we currently have. There are a few other cases out there on him so I won't rehash those. However, this response to when I asked:
Are you SERIOUSLY suggesting that our vig should shoot someone who is possibly not a mafia? You would ACTUALLY want to waste a mafia kill on a bad town player? I think sc2system is playing either bad scum or town right now, as my older posts suggest, but why does he HAVE to die right now? Maybe Day 2 he will actually contribute.
On the vig shot: -You had made a case against him. You had a high suspicion he was scum. This was YOUR case and YOUR suspicion which you later essentially deny. -You suggest that he might have “stepped up on day 2?” More likely he would have made it more difficult. I think that was clear on day 1. -Artanis basically confirmed himself town for day 2 when he was a good lynch target for day 2. He gave the town a valuable asset, while taking out a useless/bad/possible scum person. -Even AFTER you realized the above point, you still dont see it as good?
You are pretty much the only person who sees the vig kill as bad, I still do not understand why.
There has been a call for you to post some more substantial content. I would like to hear your thoughts on the current issues. Nova and Seviro would be a good start.
I read through most of the thread, and right now I don't have a strong case or read on anyone. If you think that's scummy then fine, but I'm not going to make a weak case like Nova did after I asked him to post some analysis.
Nova I DO agree with Mementoss, as I was the first to say that Nova was playing so differently than the last game. However, I kinda of have a feeling it's due to our last game, as mentioned before where he was slammed for his early pressure. BUT, I also feel like this is a terrible defense. Nova, you should not change your meta when its putting pressure on people and making them talk and contribute. Actually, if I remember correctly the people who actually were so critical of you in the last game were the scummies. Anyway, I am most suspicious of Nova atm, but like I said before nothing substantial.
The best cases by far right now are those brought up against Seviro and Nova. The case against Gossamer by Virtu was unconvincing, especially since he failed to post the whole thing... And the case against michaelthe is weak as well: He defends himself well against Artanis’s legit pressure, and Seviro’s case on him feels very forced to begin with.
Nova: Not much to say here, just read mementoss’s post on him, he does an excellent job pointing out the inconsistencies, weak cases brought up, and different metagame of Nova this game... Nova’s defense, in return, is spectacularly bad: He makes the most unreasonably long-winded post in the thread full of real life spam, and explains his ‘new metagame’ as a way to get closer to mementoss’s play, even though he’s actually getting farther from it in my opinion. Scummy behavior in my eyes.
I also think it’s funny that he’s leaning “scum” for Seviro and “null leaning scummy” for me, but I’m the one who got FoSed.
Seviro: I think he’s scum too. Erratic voting record, most posts giving no new contributions, some stuff about ‘pressure but no lynch’ which was really silly, etc... It’s all been pointed out before me so I won’t repeat. But I will point out a few posts (or parts of posts):
On March 26 2012 03:04 Seviro wrote: He was the first one to make a real case against Rise Of Fenix which really started the train rolling in my opinion. While Rise was doing a great job of sinking himself into bad and bad post, peolple started to look more into it after this case. He also was the first one to point out sc2system lurkerness.These two people had already been mentionned beforehand, respectively by Gossemer and Ninja4ever. My point is, not that it mean anything since it was the same for a lot of people, his two main suspect flipped town which is worth pointing out I think.
1. These 2 were a lot of people’s first 2 suspects. Pointing out that they were mementoss’s as well is not worth it.
2. He pointed out the lurking of people who had been pointed out by Gossemer and Ninja4ever, which makes him the first to make these cases? Contradiction, anyone?
And I like how you position yourself as a defender of Rise, twice...
On March 24 2012 05:44 Seviro wrote: Where in the world do you see in this post that I am following the Rise Of Fenix train? Hell i'm like the only one that is trying to defend him.
On March 26 2012 03:39 Seviro wrote: What are you talking about?. Literally all the EFFING day I've been DEFENDING Fenix in hope that he would come up with something useful, which didn'T happen.
When your only time specifically mentioning Rise day 1 is this:
On March 23 2012 06:07 Seviro wrote: And about Rise, posting your thought about 1 hour before the deadline is possibly the more scummy thing you could do as the deadline is relatively late and a lot of people are not around at the time. Voting at this time is basically a ninja vote and it is not right to do so since, as Nova said we wouldn't have enough time to discuss about it and change our vote if need be.
He was commenting on Rise's "I will likely post my thoughts about 1 hour before the deadline." comment at that point... I get it now! That must be the old “defend him by pointing out his scummy behavior” strategy! Yeah, I don’t see it too often…
I’d be fine with lynching any of these two at the moment. They may very well both be scum. But since I only vote once…
Inb4 OMG he said he was going to bed last post and he didn'T, SCUMSCUMSCUM, by heading to bed I meant getting of the computer and doing something else before actually going to bed. I planned to take a look at the thread just before sleeping but there was 2 post adressed to me so I responded to them while they were of actuality.
On March 26 2012 14:34 michaelthe wrote: Re Seviro Attack You make two points about my ultimatum: 1) 3 out of the 4 people I posted as lurkers are now dead townies. 2) I didn't vote until 23 hours after my 8 hour ultimatum.
Reponses: 1) two are dead because they are bad townines. This is the reason they were on the inactive list, this is the reason they were selected to die. The reason they are dead and on the list of inactives has the same root, this in no way makes their deaths have a causal relationship to my list. This should be completely easy to see by anyone. 2) My ultimatum was an attempt to force lurkers to post. All of them actually posted. Fenix spammed useless content, one said “I'm awake”, one said “Im drunk”. No one strictly failed, it was only mildly successful at making people post.
On Artanis, you make two points: 1) I targest Artanis after we had two good targets to lynch 2) I was the second vote for Artanis, not the first
I refute both of these points with one simple point: Artanis' slip was a major one. Artanis himself said so. Every Mafia guide says so. It ended up being a complete accident, but there was no way to tell this at the time. At the time, this was one of the strongest pieces of objective information we had.
Your claims are terrible, they have no weight, I find them very artificial. There are a few people who have said “oops, that does look scummy”, but I have not with the above. My responses are simple, and straightforward to your meritless claims. I think you are artificially trying to make a case.
About the 3 out of 4 thingie, of course this was purely WIFOM but I thought it was worth mentioning.
And on the Ultimatum you did say
On March 23 2012 06:16 michaelthe wrote: ULTIMATUM: Post something of value within 8 hours or you are getting my vote!
So you are basically saying that "i'm drunk" and "i'm awake" are valuable for the town right?
And for the "Feudian slip" as you like to call it I did bring it up because of the way you brought it back. You basically said everything Mementoss had already say in his post about it, but you write it in a way that make it look like you were the one to find it.
And also, I forgot to mention that your answer about froggy's post that was asking you to give content was:
On March 23 2012 15:23 michaelthe wrote: On Froggy
You came out VERY defensive. I called for lurkers to post, and they did... But hey, that's not my strategy!:
On March 23 2012 04:54 froggynoddy wrote: The decision to lynch should therefore be based on 1. information (gathered by pressuring, amongst other ways) 2. Correct analysis. But without 1. we shall never be able to do 2. And therefore any decisions to lynch will be less strong.
Your turn Euro's. See you in the morning.
You didn'T adress any of his claim.
And on my point being weak, weightless and artificial I don't know if you saw my answer about your case on me, I countered every single point of yours without even trying and I did not say anything about your point being weak and weightless because it is useless to discredit other post the way you do it.
So if you could stop with your arrogant attitude of "I'm right and I'm good, you're wrong and you suck" that would be beneficial for the town.
And blueyD
You had no opinion, really?! On a vigi hit?!
Yeah really.
1. These 2 were a lot of people’s first 2 suspects. Pointing out that they were mementoss’s as well is not worth it.
2. He pointed out the lurking of people who had been pointed out by Gossemer and Ninja4ever, which makes him the first to make these cases? Contradiction, anyone?
There is a difference between pointing out something and making a case on it.
Anyway the goal of the small case on Mem was only to show that we need to not put him in the "almost confirmed townie" yet since on day 1 some people seemed to believe he was the most townie of us, which he may be but it is not a reason to not suspect him and to let him slip by.
When your only time specifically mentioning Rise day 1 is this:
On March 23 2012 06:07 Seviro wrote: And about Rise, posting your thought about 1 hour before the deadline is possibly the more scummy thing you could do as the deadline is relatively late and a lot of people are not around at the time. Voting at this time is basically a ninja vote and it is not right to do so since, as Nova said we wouldn't have enough time to discuss about it and change our vote if need be.
When you go through my filter, at least do it right :
On March 24 2012 03:14 Seviro wrote: Oh, I really just think now that Fenix is playing poorly or just doesn't care enough to put enough time on the game. But I'll give him the chance to step up his play because I really think he is town.
I think that if he was mafia, his fellow scum would have helped him in the background so that he don't look so suspicious. For now I think he is just bad and as I said, i'm willing to give him a chance to step up his play. I shouldn't have said that I think that he is really town, more like I don't see him being more scummy than anyone else right now.
On March 24 2012 05:10 Seviro wrote: Yeah I know, I just feel like it's too obvious to be true. I might be wrong tho.
that is 3 more post where I defend him so if you claim something, don't only 1/4 post on it to make me look bad.
And I did mention this defense twice because 2 people said that I jumped on the ROS train right away, which is false.
Seriously, I don'T know if my english is so bad or you just can't read but i'm getting tired of repeating myself over and over again.
On March 22 2012 23:42 BlueyD wrote: People I consider to be lurkers right now, until further notice:
Seviro (one useless post, but he's there) Rise of Fenix (one useless post calling me a townie for posting first, I want his opinion on day 1 lynching) Ninja4Ever (he did say he would post later)
No one is entirely inactive, but most people seem to agree to lynch a lurker day 1. This means we have to start thinking about who to lynch if there's no convenient lurker.
On Gossemer's early vote for Mementoss: He was q
My post wasn't useless, I had to post something before going to bed and I can't post while i'm asleep sorry .
As for the lurker lynch we should really put pressure on this, as Mementoss and Nova said, last game all three scums were very active and it was easy for them to control the flow of the game. It is useless to have the number advantage if half of the town only post once in a while just to make sure they are not modkilled. If you look at last day of last game (SNMMVIII) we were 5 town/3 scums and in one day we lynched a townie and 2 others got modkilled, and one of the lurkers was a Blue. This overall inactivity was a good part of why we lose the game since every lurker that we targetted flipped town.
That said we should put pressure on lurker but not lynch them to fast because last game's situation will happen again and we will die horribly.
This post kinda came off weird to me. posts some stuff about last game, says how we shouldnt be inactive, and ends on kind of a weird note about pressuring lurkers but not lynching too fast. which is especially strange when later in the day he randomly votes for a lurker.
On March 23 2012 07:58 Seviro wrote: there's no haste to vote yet, it's just that you said you would wait about and hour before the deadline before your vote, which is really late.
It will be best for everyone if we say something like 8 to 6 hour before the deadline we should post what is our vote at that moment. At this point we can discuss and see what would be the best for the town. If at the time of the "soft" deadline you have no one that you think is more suspicious than the other you can always vote for no-lynch and change your vote later.
This is one of the posts that i feel the weirdest about. he says that we should have some soft deadline which i had already stated and he agreed on, and then says we can discuss and that if someone has nobody they think is suspicious at all they can just vote No-Lynch no problem and then just switch it later when they feel like? Seems to me like hes encouraging sc2system-like behavior. really weird.
On March 23 2012 08:05 Seviro wrote: It depends, on day 1 it is bad since we have no informations whatsoever if we don'T lynch someone, but later in the game a no lynch can be better than a mislynch. It does seems scummy but at time it can be good (rarely tho).
But my point was not to no lynch, it was that you can vote no-lynch like 6-8 hour before the deadline if you don't know who to vote for and then with the discussion that follow you can make up your mind.
Then he clears this up saying not to no-lynch, but I still don’t think that his point makes sense, its just encouraging people to say that they are undecided, then wait until last minute and flip with little explanation of their own.
On March 22 2012 14:55 Seviro wrote: I just noticed it had started and now I'm going to bed so I can't speak much now. I'll come back tomorrow to participate more.
It's my second game myself (SNMMVIII, perfect win for mafia and I was among the last survivor, yay!)
Introductory post. Pretty much no content other than saying he'll post again later.
On March 22 2012 23:42 BlueyD wrote: People I consider to be lurkers right now, until further notice:
Seviro (one useless post, but he's there) Rise of Fenix (one useless post calling me a townie for posting first, I want his opinion on day 1 lynching) Ninja4Ever (he did say he would post later)
No one is entirely inactive, but most people seem to agree to lynch a lurker day 1. This means we have to start thinking about who to lynch if there's no convenient lurker.
On Gossemer's early vote for Mementoss: He was q
My post wasn't useless, I had to post something before going to bed and I can't post while i'm asleep sorry .
As for the lurker lynch we should really put pressure on this, as Mementoss and Nova said, last game all three scums were very active and it was easy for them to control the flow of the game. It is useless to have the number advantage if half of the town only post once in a while just to make sure they are not modkilled. If you look at last day of last game (SNMMVIII) we were 5 town/3 scums and in one day we lynched a townie and 2 others got modkilled, and one of the lurkers was a Blue. This overall inactivity was a good part of why we lose the game since every lurker that we targetted flipped town.
That said we should put pressure on lurker but not lynch them to fast because last game's situation will happen again and we will die horribly.
Wants to pressure for lurker lynch when this is pretty much established in town, the whole paragraph goes on about how lurking is bad which has pretty much been established already. Somewhat defends lurkers in the same post which is odd.
On March 23 2012 04:37 Nova_Terra wrote: Seviro, while i agree with your post, i dont get how we can put pressure on lurkers but not lynch them fast, as thats really the only way to pressure them.
Pretty much what froggy said, last game we didn't really pressure them as much, yes we were talking a lot about lynching them but as soon as they posted like 1 or 2 post we were ok and were going on another subject. If we are talking about something, we need to have the opinion of everyone. I'll take Eleanthas of last game as an example, everytime he posted something he was completely ignoring the discussion that was going on, that should not happen.
And about Rise, posting your thought about 1 hour before the deadline is possibly the more scummy thing you could do as the deadline is relatively late and a lot of people are not around at the time. Voting at this time is basically a ninja vote and it is not right to do so since, as Nova said we wouldn't have enough time to discuss about it and change our vote if need be.
Agrees with another townie to gain cred, this is a trend in Seviro's posts; rarely comes up with any own ideas and mostly agrees with other townies to 'blend in'. Also jumps on the against the 1 hour bandwagon which is fairly obvious. Long post basically stating the obvious and agreeing with other people.
On March 23 2012 06:22 Nova_Terra wrote: michaelthe could you make that 12 hours for them? some of them might live in europe and they have my sympathy. Also would everyone be okay with a 6 hour soft deadline?
I'm okay with 6 but I'd like 8 more. 6 feel kind of short.
On March 23 2012 07:58 Seviro wrote: there's no haste to vote yet, it's just that you said you would wait about and hour before the deadline before your vote, which is really late.
It will be best for everyone if we say something like 8 to 6 hour before the deadline we should post what is our vote at that moment. At this point we can discuss and see what would be the best for the town. If at the time of the "soft" deadline you have no one that you think is more suspicious than the other you can always vote for no-lynch and change your vote later.
These are exactly the type of contributions that scum is fine with doing, as they don't really 'help' the town in any way. The Rise of Fenix train is going nicely, which if he's just a bad townie is fine for mafia.
On March 23 2012 08:05 Seviro wrote: It depends, on day 1 it is bad since we have no informations whatsoever if we don'T lynch someone, but later in the game a no lynch can be better than a mislynch. It does seems scummy but at time it can be good (rarely tho).
But my point was not to no lynch, it was that you can vote no-lynch like 6-8 hour before the deadline if you don't know who to vote for and then with the discussion that follow you can make up your mind.
Are you suddenly suggesting to no lynch? We've pretty much all agreed that not lynching day 1 is bad because of lack of information. People should vote on suspicion regardless.
On March 23 2012 08:10 Seviro wrote: EBWOP, If we agree that everyone should have a vote posted at a set time before the deadline (since no one disagreed right now let's say 8 to 6 hour) we can then make a better choice for the lynch of this day and if someone fail to do so then he is most likely to be proposed as a lunch candidate.
But now I think everyone should post what are their thought about that, if they agree etc. If we want to be able to win this, we need to work together and to not let 1 or 2 people take the control of the town.
Continuing on with something that really isn't that crucial and if people agree to 8 hours instead of 6 there's nothing groundbreaking that will be decided.
Based on all these posts that pretty much say nothing at all and seem to want to blend in most of all which seems like scum behaviour to me, though it's just a suspicion, I'm voting for Seviro for now. At worst it'll spark some more discussion.
Wants to pressure for lurker lynch when this is pretty much established in town, the whole paragraph goes on about how lurking is bad which has pretty much been established already. Somewhat defends lurkers in the same post which is odd.
I already answered what I meant by that, pressuring and lynching are two different thing. Pressuring is forcing them to post by asking them directly their opinion on a subject so that we can more precisely find who is scum and who is not. A scum under pressure is most likely to post than a town in my opinion.
Agrees with another townie to gain cred, this is a trend in Seviro's posts; rarely comes up with any own ideas and mostly agrees with other townies to 'blend in'. Also jumps on the against the 1 hour bandwagon which is fairly obvious. Long post basically stating the obvious and agreeing with other people.
Ok, so I can't agree with anyone that's what you're saying? I mean I wasn'T online after Nova question and Froggy kind of answered him in my place and I just pointed out that it was indeed what I meant.
On March 23 2012 04:54 froggynoddy wrote: What I have been saying (and I think what Seviro is saying), is to be able to analyse behaviour you need to get actions and reactions from people. The analysis then has to be correct in of itself. The decision to lynch should therefore be based on 1. information (gathered by pressuring, amongst other ways) 2. Correct analysis. But without 1. we shall never be able to do 2. And therefore any decisions to lynch will be less strong.
These are exactly the type of contributions that scum is fine with doing, as they don't really 'help' the town in any way. The Rise of Fenix train is going nicely, which if he's just a bad townie is fine for mafia.
Ok, so now I'm suspicious because i'm not badwagonning? I don'T really see your point here.
Are you suddenly suggesting to no lynch? We've pretty much all agreed that not lynching day 1 is bad because of lack of information. People should vote on suspicion regardless.
Way to miss the point, I won't bother explaining again since what you quoted was clear and you just seem to want to make me look scummy by making me say what I didn'T say.
Continuing on with something that really isn't that crucial and if people agree to 8 hours instead of 6 there's nothing groundbreaking that will be decided.
It is not that crucial but if we can come up with something like this we will be a lot more organized and will have time to discuss all the votes before the actual deadline. Once again I explained it very well.
Now that you put yourself on the stage, let's take a look at you.
On March 22 2012 21:12 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Hey guys, just woke up, sorry for not replying yet. 3am is quite late for us Europeans, but I'm here now This is my third or fourth game of TL Mafia, I've organized Insane Mafia before which was an absolutely insane game and a ton of fun. I'm also pro lynching someone on day 1 as lynches are the only reliable way to kill mafia. We don't know if there's a vigilante in the game, but I don't think we can count on it. We should also treat any roleclaims with suspicion. Don't blindly follow anyone that claims, or anyone that makes long posts. Think for yourself and don't jump on bandwagons. From what I've seen in other games this is generally what kills towns. Mafia is by definition more organized so they're better at bandwagoning, though a smart mafia will never have everyone voting on one person. However, if there's any risk of a mafia getting lynched they'll normally switch their votes off so anyone that switches votes at the last minute should be viewed with suspicion.
Introductory post, little content else than the obvious and some WIFOM toward the end
On March 23 2012 05:24 Rise Of Fenix wrote: Day one lynching is always a solid plan to move foreward, but no real tells are showing thus far. I will likely post my thoughts about 1 hour before the deadline. But not lynching anyone only benefits the scum.
Why would you not post your thoughts now instead of one hour before the deadline? We could actually discuss them if you post it now, there's no reason not to.
On of the first to tell what everyone else will say after. (People can have the same opinion, it'S not necessary badwagonning)
On March 24 2012 01:22 Artanis[Xp] wrote: @Nova_Terra however bandwagoning on everything and making large posts that basically say "I agree" IS scummy, because the length of the post can make it seem like you're contributing when in fact you're not saying anything new. Sure, others have done this as well, but I haven't seen anyone else make such long posts without any real 'content'.
I agree that my posts are kind of long but just because you are missing every point that I make it doesn't mean that I have no content.
On March 24 2012 02:07 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Also, to my defense, if I was mafia I'd probably have a large accusatory post proofread by the other mafia. The chance of a slip like that happening in that case are much smaller. And to correct myself, when I said town I simply meant all players, not specifically town aligned.
This defense is not valid as it is only WIFOM. (It's a newbie game after all)
Now I hate to do that, but I need to vote on you for now. In your case on me you were purposely (or not) missing all my point to make me look scummy and that for me is a lot more scummy. so for now
##Vote: Artanis[Xp]
I don’t really think that seviro handled defending this case well.it came off very defensive and the end was just OMGUS. One thing I want to note is that he says pressuring is asking people to post thoughts and respond to questions, and lynching is voting them down. In his next few posts he just goes on about how rise of fenix is just probably bad in general, but it isn’t really helping anything. He doesn’t want to lynch him, but doesn’t really present any other option? Scummy.
And then when RoF posts saying he will try to make it up he goes a bit weird.
On March 24 2012 05:36 Rise Of Fenix wrote: give me another chance, please. I will make up my terrible play today tommorow.
Dude you still have about 6 hour left before today's deadline. At the rate thi is going you won'T be alive tomorrow anyway, if you want to defend yourself and step up your play it is today. With a post like this it seems like you don'T even try so we might as well lynch you right now.
At this point it starts to go back to the thing about how he just wants to pressure lurkers and not lynch. Now hes just threatening him to post or die, which isn’t really wanting to “not lynch lurkers immediately”
On March 24 2012 06:00 Seviro wrote: I want to point out that it'S been a bit more than 22 hour since virtu last post. He did said he'll post today but I have yet to see anything from him. I think for now i'll put my vote on him until he comes out.
##unvote: Artanis[Xp] ##Vote: Virtu
Lolwut? This is just…. Says lurkers should be pressured (which apparently means asking them directly for their opinion and not voting >Votes for lurker for no reason other than him not having been there for 22 hours That’s just contradicting and scummy. Then he switches between Virtu and RoF (also a lurker)
In his next couple posts he just adds how system needs to be looked at. Oh, and then theres this which bugged me a bit
On March 25 2012 04:56 Seviro wrote: Hum, you have some good point there but you could have add these two post as well
On March 24 2012 07:57 BlueyD wrote: Note: I haven't vote counted, but I'm still here for a few hours (MLG yay!) and will switch for Rise if we need a majority when the time limit gets near, but I would much prefer to see sc2master lynched.
On March 24 2012 08:38 BlueyD wrote: Hint to Rise, if he's still around: Switching his vote to sc2system might let him stay alive another day.
It seems like it is 100% sure that these two are the lynch target for the first 2 day when everything can happen during day 1 that can change anything.
Personnally after seeing Rise flip Town I think that Sc2system is most likely a town that can't put his thought together. I believe that his day 1 posting are mostly inexperienced post and that if he try a bit he could come up with some good thing. I just know that for now i'm not willing to vote for him on day 2 yet.
After I post my case, the only thing I get from him is Hum, some good point there. No other thoughts on the case at all. Not really suspicious there, but to not share any thoughts on it at all?
His thoughts on system were pretty much yeah hes probably bad townie but not sure if worth a lynch etc. Yeah, everyone knows hes suspicious.
On March 25 2012 06:39 BlueyD wrote: And I didn't like that he had a "pressure but no lynch" opinion on lurkers at first, but then switched his vote to Virtu for his period of inactivity, despite many ok Virtu posts before. "Flexible in opinion" is how I'd describe Seviro, and that's not a compliment...
This is what I meant by pressure but not necessarly lynch, I put my vote on him and then he came and posted his thought so I switched back. This is what I call pressure play.
Mhm, compare this to
Pressuring is forcing them to post by asking them directly their opinion on a subject so that we can more precisely find who is scum and who is not.
No? you call a pressure play a play where you ask someone to post their opinion on a subject.
Mementoss: He was the first one to make a real case against Rise Of Fenix which really started the train rolling in my opinion. While Rise was doing a great job of sinking himself into bad and bad post, peolple started to look more into it after this case. He also was the first one to point out sc2system lurkerness.These two people had already been mentionned beforehand, respectively by Gossemer and Ninja4ever. My point is, not that it mean anything since it was the same for a lot of people, his two main suspect flipped town which is worth pointing out I think.
Now, this is not scummy in itself but I also saw a little inconsistency in his posting.
On March 22 2012 20:41 Mementoss wrote: Therefore, I say we lynch a lurker/useless poster day 1, unless we have a significant scum slip. Why is this beneifical to us the town, even though there is a good chance it will be a townie? 1) Helps narrow down the field for scum hunting later 2) Keeps the active ratio higher for discussion 3) Attempts to keep replacements out of the game, which are always difficult to read and deal with as one persons scum meta =/= the other persons. .
Then, later he is the one who notice the slip of artanis
Note the bolded/underlined, its both because its a very big mistake. A very big scum slip. Why is it such a huge deal? Because we have no clue if Nova_Terra is town. AT ALL. Here are the possibilities:
1) He is scum, he knows peoples roles, therefore he knows Nova_Terra is town. Slipped it by mistake. 2) He is scum, Nova_Terra is scum, he is quick to give the idea to the rest that Nova is confirmed town, when there is no proof behind it. Just saying it because Nova is active. 3) He is town, bad town play, making assumptions that lead to town not exploring all the possibilities, getting tunnelled away from someone (See me as mafia SNMM VIII)
Dat scum slip
If we follow his reasoning, At this point Artanis had 66% chance of being a scum but even then he didn't put a vote even after:
On March 24 2012 05:24 Mementoss wrote: @Artanis, I don't believe your defense, but its not enough to warrant a day 1 lynch. Now that I have given Seviro a chance to defend, your case against him seemed weak to me. It was basically him discussing things that were going on in the thread, while they were important, don't see how this is scummy.
He point out the slip, don't believe the defense, have stated in his first post that he would vote a lurker/useless poster unless a scum slip like this happened, be even then he doesn't put his vote on him once.
Now, since Artanis is a confirmed townie now (unless a counter claim but at this point I doubt it), it is not inherently scummy but these littles inconsistencies are worth mentionning if we want to scum hunt effectively.
My main suspect now is Micaelthe: Here is Froggy post about his early game so I won't have to repeat it.
Additionally, I would suggest we open with a lurker lynch strategy. Stating our willingness to lynch a lurker should force activity. If push comes to shove, we must follow through, but hopefully it will force no lurkers. I know mafia tips suggest policy lynches are bad, but I think it's hard to get the ball rolling in newbie games.
I've been reading FAQs and strategy and whatnot (I missed getting last game by a bit :/) but still had to look up OMGUS. So here is a webpage I found useful: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Main_Page
I would still like to go back and read the opening day of some of the newbie games. I will do this regardless, but I think it would be beneficial for those that played in those newbie games to go back, reread, and offer analysis of those games as well (or even if you didn't play like me!) My point is we can't analyze players who haven't played any games very accurately, but we can analyze strategy of past newbie games.
Your third point is some very weak finger pointing:
I know it is hard to contribute on Day1 in a newbie game, but again, the only way to force... is to force it... Post anything of value to this game of mafia. Even a weak thought about who looks suspicious, who doesn't, if you think we should day1 lynch etc.
Posts that say nothing "HI GUYS" are equal to not posting in my book. As are posts simply agreeing with another post. Try and post some original thought, regardless of how weak it is.
I've made a spreadsheet with posts and ranked posts according to a day1-content scale I made. These are the three lowest people:
1)sc2system 2)Ninja4ever 3)Froggynoddy
You all have posts, but not enough substance!
ULTIMATUM: Post something of value within 8 hours or you are getting my vote!
There is pretty much nothing to go by. Your content is zilch, you are putting suspicion on people who have more content than you; I have argued that forcing lurkers to post is beneficial to town, more convincingly than you have (as has seviro and to a certain extent Nova_Terra), yet you put a really weak case forward against three posters.
I'm not voting for you YET but you seriously need to shape up. Accusing players who have posted content in day 1 seems scummy to me as there is so little to go by.
On March 23 2012 06:16 michaelthe wrote: I know it is hard to contribute on Day1 in a newbie game, but again, the only way to force... is to force it... Post anything of value to this game of mafia. Even a weak thought about who looks suspicious, who doesn't, if you think we should day1 lynch etc.
Posts that say nothing "HI GUYS" are equal to not posting in my book. As are posts simply agreeing with another post. Try and post some original thought, regardless of how weak it is.
I've made a spreadsheet with posts and ranked posts according to a day1-content scale I made. These are the three lowest people:
1)sc2system 2)Ninja4ever 3)Froggynoddy
You all have posts, but not enough substance!
ULTIMATUM: Post something of value within 8 hours or you are getting my vote!
How in the world is Fenix not number one on this list?
Actually, completely by accident. He should be below sc2system and ninja, but above froggy.
I was tracking posts by quality and page by assigning a value to each post from 0 (greeting, basic chatter), 1 (very basic, but maybe an opinion), 2 (basic thoughts), or 3 (solid attempt at analysis for day1). Best I could do for day1... I suspect filters and exact content will matter more on day 2 or 3+
The scores are as follows:
sc2system: 0,0 (a few posts on day1 I lumpped I think) Ninja: 0,0 Froggy: 0,1,1
And, as you said and I missed: Fenix: 1,1 (Argentina)
So I will add him to the list, I guess in fairness I will give him 8 hours from this post, so an extra 40 minutes or whatever
On March 23 2012 06:22 Nova_Terra wrote: michaelthe could you make that 12 hours for them? some of them might live in europe and they have my sympathy. Also would everyone be okay with a 6 hour soft deadline?
not much of an ultimatum if I change it 5 minutes later!
You're Euro.. what time is it there?
Then his first actual vote happen 23 hour after his ultimatum whereas he said an ultimatum of 8 hour more so that he vote for someone that is not on his list.
Which lead me to talk about the "Feudian slip" as he calls it.
He seems to insist a lot on this than needed, now that we already had ROS and sc2system under the radar he bring back a point that had been discuss hours before as if since ROS and sc2system where dead men walking at this stage if he could change day 1 lynch then day 2 and 3 would have been a big mess for the town.
I'll point out also that he was not the first to vote for Artanis since my vote was still on him and most of his opinion were mostly reformulating. Then, at the end of the day he just follow the bandwagon as he see that Artanis won't get lynched.
Sorry for the lenght of the post, longer than expected.
He posts some seeming analysis on Mementoss and more importantly TheMichael but doesn’t really do anything with it. This is his first “real” case/important analysis. Most of his content has been defense or fluff.
Initial Day 2 Thoughts At the end of day1, I reread the argument between Seviro and Artanis. While I was pretty sure Artanis was scum, I thought Seviro's reponse was absurd. I came to the conclusion that one of these two were most likely scum... Since Artanis is now mostly-confirmed, the attack on Seviro gained another look.
On Seviro:
(This is based heavily on his filter, pull it up if you want to see specific posts, this is already long enough without them all) First substantial post after initial wave of basic crap:
On March 23 2012 08:10 Seviro wrote: EBWOP, If we agree that everyone should have a vote posted at a set time before the deadline (since no one disagreed right now let's say 8 to 6 hour) we can then make a better choice for the lynch of this day and if someone fail to do so then he is most likely to be proposed as a lunch candidate.
He is suggesting a policy lynch based on not voting within an 8 hour deadline. The reason policy lynches are bad is because it removes analysis and focuses only on the policy. This one specifically means someone would be a lynch target simply for voting 4 hours from the deadline rather than 8. If you get scum to meet the deadline, the scum get a free town kill.
Seviro's reponse to Artanis Attack. I was fairly certain Artanis was scum, after what I saw as a strong slip. But I think the vig claim was great (more on that later). I reread the Artanis / Servio post and thought Artanis' attack was simple (based on day1 stuffs..) but Serviro WAY overreacted with his defense. He went on to vote for Artanis in his defense, which is a TERRBIE move!
FOUR minutes later he states a willingness to go after Fenix...
After the Fenix train picks up some steam, he totally forgets about Artanis.
Then he changes OFF Artanis and... onto Virtu, for not being active enough. His acusations are extremely fickle. He ends the day by jumping on the same train as everyone, Fenix.
After Day1, he posts that he thinks sc2system is town. He has defended bad play of Fenix and SC2 as town. ONLY MAFIA KNOW WHO TOWNIES ARE!
On March 25 2012 06:39 BlueyD wrote: And I didn't like that he had a "pressure but no lynch" opinion on lurkers at first, but then switched his vote to Virtu for his period of inactivity, despite many ok Virtu posts before. "Flexible in opinion" is how I'd describe Seviro, and that's not a compliment...
This is what I meant by pressure but not necessarly lynch, I put my vote on him and then he came and posted his thought so I switched back. This is what I call pressure play.
He discusses the virtu vote as “pressure”. A vote with nothing behind it, with no case, nothing. He doesn't at all revisit his Artanis vote here.
His most recent posts finally address the Artanis vote, his reasoning is ABSURD:
On March 25 2012 22:54 Artanis[Xp] wrote: .He also used a chainsaw argument against me after I accused him, voting me for little reason seemingly only because I voted on him and some minor suspicions. Regardless of alignment, that's bad.
I don't think it was a "chainsaw argument" as you say because I did defend myself. I just thought "ok, he took all my post out of context so let's do the same thing with him". I know that was a bad play, but your accusations were meaningless so I just kind of did the same.
Now i'm gonna go read some filter and I'll post some of my thought after, especially Mementoss, a lot of people seem to think that he his almost confirmed town and given last game scenario, I don't like that. So brb in some hours.
He says it wasn't a chainsaw defense, but then pretty much describes a chainsaw defense. We have all been discussing the initial Seviro/Artanis issue, I think Seviro would rather see it buried.
Initial Day 2 Thoughts At the end of day1, I reread the argument between Seviro and Artanis. While I was pretty sure Artanis was scum, I thought Seviro's reponse was absurd. I came to the conclusion that one of these two were most likely scum... Since Artanis is now mostly-confirmed, the attack on Seviro gained another look.
He is suggesting a policy lynch based on not voting within an 8 hour deadline. The reason policy lynches are bad is because it removes analysis and focuses only on the policy. This one specifically means someone would be a lynch target simply for voting 4 hours from the deadline rather than 8. If you get scum to meet the deadline, the scum get a free town kill.
It doesn't mean it at all, let's say a 8 or even a 6 hour dealine, you had 40-42 to come up with a vote at this point in the day you should have your opinion anyway. It is in no way final but this way we can have an organized town and we have actually enough time to discuss each vote.
FOUR minutes later he states a willingness to go after Fenix...
After the Fenix train picks up some steam, he totally forgets about Artanis.
What are you talking about?. Literally all the EFFING day I've been DEFENDING Fenix in hope that he would come up with something useful, which didn'T happen.
Then he changes OFF Artanis and... onto Virtu, for not being active enough. His acusations are extremely fickle. He ends the day by jumping on the same train as everyone, Fenix.
Virtu had promised us a post which was not there at the time, after he did post I switch my vote onto Fenix since his post were making less and less sense.
It was more or less expected that we'd get a bad townie on day 1. I thought it was pretty clear he was bad town rather than mafia, but just a really bad town who couldn't even vote in the right format last minute that would have saved him.
You must be scum right? Just because I think something and it come down that I was right it doesn't mean anything.
He says it wasn't a chainsaw defense, but then pretty much describes a chainsaw defense. We have all been discussing the initial Seviro/Artanis issue, I think Seviro would rather see it buried.
On March 26 2012 16:04 Seviro wrote: Inb4 OMG he said he was going to bed last post and he didn'T, SCUMSCUMSCUM, by heading to bed I meant getting of the computer and doing something else before actually going to bed. I planned to take a look at the thread just before sleeping but there was 2 post adressed to me so I responded to them while they were of actuality.
On March 26 2012 14:34 michaelthe wrote: Re Seviro Attack You make two points about my ultimatum: 1) 3 out of the 4 people I posted as lurkers are now dead townies. 2) I didn't vote until 23 hours after my 8 hour ultimatum.
Reponses: 1) two are dead because they are bad townines. This is the reason they were on the inactive list, this is the reason they were selected to die. The reason they are dead and on the list of inactives has the same root, this in no way makes their deaths have a causal relationship to my list. This should be completely easy to see by anyone. 2) My ultimatum was an attempt to force lurkers to post. All of them actually posted. Fenix spammed useless content, one said “I'm awake”, one said “Im drunk”. No one strictly failed, it was only mildly successful at making people post.
On Artanis, you make two points: 1) I targest Artanis after we had two good targets to lynch 2) I was the second vote for Artanis, not the first
I refute both of these points with one simple point: Artanis' slip was a major one. Artanis himself said so. Every Mafia guide says so. It ended up being a complete accident, but there was no way to tell this at the time. At the time, this was one of the strongest pieces of objective information we had.
Your claims are terrible, they have no weight, I find them very artificial. There are a few people who have said “oops, that does look scummy”, but I have not with the above. My responses are simple, and straightforward to your meritless claims. I think you are artificially trying to make a case.
About the 3 out of 4 thingie, of course this was purely WIFOM but I thought it was worth mentioning.
On March 23 2012 06:16 michaelthe wrote: ULTIMATUM: Post something of value within 8 hours or you are getting my vote!
So you are basically saying that "i'm drunk" and "i'm awake" are valuable for the town right?
And for the "Feudian slip" as you like to call it I did bring it up because of the way you brought it back. You basically said everything Mementoss had already say in his post about it, but you write it in a way that make it look like you were the one to find it.
And also, I forgot to mention that your answer about froggy's post that was asking you to give content was:
On March 23 2012 15:23 michaelthe wrote: On Froggy
You came out VERY defensive. I called for lurkers to post, and they did... But hey, that's not my strategy!:
On March 23 2012 04:54 froggynoddy wrote: The decision to lynch should therefore be based on 1. information (gathered by pressuring, amongst other ways) 2. Correct analysis. But without 1. we shall never be able to do 2. And therefore any decisions to lynch will be less strong.
Your turn Euro's. See you in the morning.
You didn'T adress any of his claim.
And on my point being weak, weightless and artificial I don't know if you saw my answer about your case on me, I countered every single point of yours without even trying and I did not say anything about your point being weak and weightless because it is useless to discredit other post the way you do it.
So if you could stop with your arrogant attitude of "I'm right and I'm good, you're wrong and you suck" that would be beneficial for the town.
1. These 2 were a lot of people’s first 2 suspects. Pointing out that they were mementoss’s as well is not worth it.
2. He pointed out the lurking of people who had been pointed out by Gossemer and Ninja4ever, which makes him the first to make these cases? Contradiction, anyone?
There is a difference between pointing out something and making a case on it.
Anyway the goal of the small case on Mem was only to show that we need to not put him in the "almost confirmed townie" yet since on day 1 some people seemed to believe he was the most townie of us, which he may be but it is not a reason to not suspect him and to let him slip by.
On March 23 2012 06:07 Seviro wrote: And about Rise, posting your thought about 1 hour before the deadline is possibly the more scummy thing you could do as the deadline is relatively late and a lot of people are not around at the time. Voting at this time is basically a ninja vote and it is not right to do so since, as Nova said we wouldn't have enough time to discuss about it and change our vote if need be.
When you go through my filter, at least do it right :
On March 24 2012 03:14 Seviro wrote: Oh, I really just think now that Fenix is playing poorly or just doesn't care enough to put enough time on the game. But I'll give him the chance to step up his play because I really think he is town.
I think that if he was mafia, his fellow scum would have helped him in the background so that he don't look so suspicious. For now I think he is just bad and as I said, i'm willing to give him a chance to step up his play. I shouldn't have said that I think that he is really town, more like I don't see him being more scummy than anyone else right now.
On March 24 2012 05:10 Seviro wrote: Yeah I know, I just feel like it's too obvious to be true. I might be wrong tho.
that is 3 more post where I defend him so if you claim something, don't only 1/4 post on it to make me look bad.
And I did mention this defense twice because 2 people said that I jumped on the ROS train right away, which is false.
Seriously, I don'T know if my english is so bad or you just can't read but i'm getting tired of repeating myself over and over again.
Now I'm really going to bed.
The endless irritation and defense doesn’t stop. Particularly here: + Show Spoiler +
On March 26 2012 16:04 Seviro wrote: Inb4 OMG he said he was going to bed last post and he didn'T, SCUMSCUMSCUM, by heading to bed I meant getting of the computer and doing something else before actually going to bed. I planned to take a look at the thread just before sleeping but there was 2 post adressed to me so I responded to them while they were of actuality.
In the post he says that the other person is understanding badly, makes this Inb4 crap, says that themichael is arrogant etc and has a certain attitude (not saying themichael isn’t scummy, hope to post my thoughts on him relatively soon after this case) but its just rude, and seems OMGUS himself.
That’s my analysis on seviro. ##Vote: Seviro I wish I could have analyzed a bit more, but I can see that I am running short on time and for times sake I’ll put this out as early as possible.
I also think it’s funny that he’s leaning “scum” for Seviro and “null leaning scummy” for me, but I’m the one who got FoSed.
Yes, and the delay is because i had been busy. i hadnt gone through Seviro's filter before i did yours, and so first case was on you. I would apologize but apparently i shouldnt do that. You were FoS'ed, whereas he is voted (which can still be changed). You defended relatively adequately by my standards so i gave up on you and went to him.
At this point it feels like we have two scum that are the ones going to be the main lynching targets for today. They are now realizing that it is most likely going to happen, and Nova is trying to bus his team mate. I gotta re-read the filters/meta to decide who is the safer lynch if what I said isn't actually the case.
If we lynch Seviro and Seviro flips town, Michael would be highly suspicious and so would Nova Terra. If we lynch Seviro and Seviro flips scum, Michael would be off my radar, and Nova would still remain suspicious.
If we lynch Nova_Terra and he flips town, I would be highly suspicious, and ninja4ever would be partially suspicious. If we lynch Nova_Terra and he flips scum, I would be off the radar, and ninja4ever wouldn't be that suspicious.
The thing that confused me is day 1 they both defended Artanis slip. Which is something scum I would have thought would jumped all over, if a town had a scum slip. Obviously all 3 mafia aren't going to connect themselves by jumping on it. But at least one would jump on it, and if the town went with it they would get that day 1 active lynch. Michael pushed this point hard, but it seemed like he really believed it, even though the lynch was really risky.
The main reason I would pick a Seviro lynch over a Nova_Terra is to get information on Michael, who has a super Null read for me at the moment. I can't figure it/him out. I still think case-wise, the Nova_Terra case seems stronger to me, but Seviro is suspicious based on the context of his actions/posts, more than the actual post content.
Gotta go back over the filter, and gotta recheck the meta, as this is a really close call in my head:
On March 26 2012 21:38 Mementoss wrote: I still think case-wise, the Nova_Terra case seems stronger to me, but Seviro is suspicious based on the context of his actions/posts, more than the actual post content.
This is my main reason that I'd rather go for Seviro than Nova_Terra as well. Something just doesn't sit right with me for the context of Seviro's posts, and it's exactly that pattern that I've often seen mafia players take in past games. They generally don't make large slipups, just try to not contribute to town while still typing a lot. When I pointed this out, he said I missed the point of his posts yet he never bothered to specify which 'point' that actually is. For that reason; ##Vote: Seviro
This post kinda came off weird to me. posts some stuff about last game, says how we shouldnt be inactive, and ends on kind of a weird note about pressuring lurkers but not lynching too fast. which is especially strange when later in the day he randomly votes for a lurker.
If you're talking about ROS, at the time I voted on him he already had quite a lot of post, they were just not making any sense. And the Virtu vote was more like me pointing out that he said he would post his thought and that 22 hour later he had still not posted.
This is one of the posts that i feel the weirdest about. he says that we should have some soft deadline which i had already stated and he agreed on, and then says we can discuss and that if someone has nobody they think is suspicious at all they can just vote No-Lynch no problem and then just switch it later when they feel like? Seems to me like hes encouraging sc2system-like behavior. really weird.
At least by voting no-Lynch it is clear for everyone that they don'T have a clue yet as oppose that if they just didn't vote.
Then he clears this up saying not to no-lynch, but I still don’t think that his point makes sense, its just encouraging people to say that they are undecided, then wait until last minute and flip with little explanation of their own.
See above.
I don’t really think that seviro handled defending this case well.it came off very defensive and the end was just OMGUS. One thing I want to note is that he says pressuring is asking people to post thoughts and respond to questions, and lynching is voting them down. In his next few posts he just goes on about how rise of fenix is just probably bad in general, but it isn’t really helping anything. He doesn’t want to lynch him, but doesn’t really present any other option? Scummy.
Of course it came off defensive, every single point were due to it being Day 1, these point were true for other people too as you mentionned after his post. And at this point, I was not feeling anyone was more scummy than another one since other than the lurker everyone had about the same activity and were just chit-chatting.
And then when RoF posts saying he will try to make it up he goes a bit weird.
On March 24 2012 05:36 Rise Of Fenix wrote: give me another chance, please. I will make up my terrible play today tommorow.
Dude you still have about 6 hour left before today's deadline. At the rate thi is going you won'T be alive tomorrow anyway, if you want to defend yourself and step up your play it is today. With a post like this it seems like you don'T even try so we might as well lynch you right now.
At this point it starts to go back to the thing about how he just wants to pressure lurkers and not lynch. Now hes just threatening him to post or die, which isn’t really wanting to “not lynch lurkers immediately”
At this point ROS was no more a lurker, he had all the time that he wanted to posting something that had some value but all we got was "I'll be better tomorrow".It's not like it was his only post.
Lolwut? This is just…. Says lurkers should be pressured (which apparently means asking them directly for their opinion and not voting >Votes for lurker for no reason other than him not having been there for 22 hours That’s just contradicting and scummy. Then he switches between Virtu and RoF (also a lurker)
As said above, the vote on Virtu was mostly pointing out that he didn't post for 22 hour when he said he would.
After I post my case, the only thing I get from him is Hum, some good point there. No other thoughts on the case at all. Not really suspicious there, but to not share any thoughts on it at all?
Ok, I didn'T say clearly "Yes I agree with you", but I added 2 quote that were strenghtening your case. What would I do that had I disagree?.
On March 25 2012 06:39 BlueyD wrote: And I didn't like that he had a "pressure but no lynch" opinion on lurkers at first, but then switched his vote to Virtu for his period of inactivity, despite many ok Virtu posts before. "Flexible in opinion" is how I'd describe Seviro, and that's not a compliment...
This is what I meant by pressure but not necessarly lynch, I put my vote on him and then he came and posted his thought so I switched back. This is what I call pressure play.
Pressuring is forcing them to post by asking them directly their opinion on a subject so that we can more precisely find who is scum and who is not.
No? you call a pressure play a play where you ask someone to post their opinion on a subject.
Virtu's case was different since he did say he would come and post. I knoew it was coming so it was just kind of a reminder.
He posts some seeming analysis on Mementoss and more importantly TheMichael but doesn’t really do anything with it. This is his first “real” case/important analysis. Most of his content has been defense or fluff.
What would I do with it? I mentioned why I did this little case on Mementoss and then I waited for Micalethe's answers.
The main thing I noticed in his defense is really how defensive and angry he got. Scum traits.
Maybe it did seems defensive and angry, but most of his point were based on false fact, saying me say something I didn'T and thing that I already answered so of course I got a little impatient.
The endless irritation and defense doesn’t stop.
See above.
In the post he says that the other person is understanding badly, makes this Inb4 crap, says that themichael is arrogant etc and has a certain attitude (not saying themichael isn’t scummy, hope to post my thoughts on him relatively soon after this case) but its just rude, and seems OMGUS himself.
Since the Artanis/Seviro case, every case I got on me were basically saying the same thing overall. Most of the point that are against me I defended them over and over again and it seems that no one notice since thehy keep coming back as if they were new. And I stand by the fact that micaelthe is needlessly discrediting others post by saying things like he did. (I don't know if you remember last game but you said yourself that it is a scum trait.)
Since it seems that one of us will fall today, i'll put my vote on you and if something major happens, I might change.
If we lynch Seviro and Seviro flips town, Michael would be highly suspicious and so would Nova Terra.
I would gladly die for it to happen, the thing I'm afraid of though is if Virtu doesn't get replaced and he is town we are currently in a MYLO situation.
we are currently 6 towns/3 scums.
if virtu is town and get modkilled 5 town/3 scum if I die (I'm Town btw) 4 town/3 scum and if we add the nigth kill 3 town/3 scums
Even if virtu get replaced, tomorrow we'll be at a LYLO situation so today is quite important and if we can get a scum we would be in a much better shape than we are actually.
Before i go over the defense i want to note that the way virtu's post seemed felt to me like that if he couldnt get a replacement he would at least try to post votes, so if he is in fact town we are probably still okay. And I doubt that we will mislynch today.
Seviro, let me repost the 3 things you consider defenses of Rise, with bolded parts:
Oh, I really just think now that Fenix is playing poorly or just doesn't care enough to put enough time on the game. But I'll give him the chance to step up his play because I really think he is town.
I think that if he was mafia, his fellow scum would have helped him in the background so that he don't look so suspicious. For now I think he is just bad and as I said, i'm willing to give him a chance to step up his play. I shouldn't have said that I think that he is really town, more like I don't see him being more scummy than anyone else right now.
Yeah I know, I just feel like it's too obvious to be true. I might be wrong tho.
Okay, so he plays poorly, looks suspicious, and feels like obvious scum to you. Great defense! It doesn't feel like you're defending him at all to me, since you bring up something I can bold in every single post. I'm not at 1/1 or at 1/4 now, I'm at 4/4.
Truth is when someone looks this bad, we lynch him to know what he is. That's how the game is played. He was a decent lynch target from the start and the only defense you could have brought out was "someone else looks even worse", as I did.
Oh, for people wondering, my issue here isn't Rise, it's Seviro trying to gain credit on something he didn't do after the fact. That's a scummy thing to do.
I will be on a few hours before the deadline but right now:
##Vote: Nova_Terra
He didn't even respond to Mem's post about his defense, or my little blurb for that matter. I need to read through to thread in order this evening to gather my thoughts a bit more on everyone else.
I didnt think you were asking for anything Gosse and just took your advice. I didnt realize the mafia from last time were the ones who criticized my play... Maybe because it was partially mementoss and he seemed so inno o.o I thought that looking back on the game that the pressure i made then was more just suspicious early play from me and OMGUS.
I actually really like BlueyD's point on Seviro, that he is kinda taking credit for something he didn't do. This alone is a better part of the case than most of the other analysis. The Seviro vote train moved a lot faster than the Nova one did though, which leaves me to wonder. All 3 mafia probably aren't on the same vote. They would split up to have less connections between them at least for now.
Except there is some unique cases, if both Nova and Seviro are scum obviously they are going to vote for the opposite. Also it is possible that Virtu is scum and since hes not voting we can't really look into it.
Mafia most likely has 3/8 active voters right now (if virtu is town) the fact that the Seviro vote is going a bit too smooth worries me.
On March 27 2012 04:04 Mementoss wrote: I actually really like BlueyD's point on Seviro, that he is kinda taking credit for something he didn't do. This alone is a better part of the case than most of the other analysis. The Seviro vote train moved a lot faster than the Nova one did though, which leaves me to wonder. All 3 mafia probably aren't on the same vote. They would split up to have less connections between them at least for now.
Except there is some unique cases, if both Nova and Seviro are scum obviously they are going to vote for the opposite. Also it is possible that Virtu is scum and since hes not voting we can't really look into it.
Mafia most likely has 3/8 active voters right now (if virtu is town) the fact that the Seviro vote is going a bit too smooth worries me.
I share your worries, but Mafia might be willing to let Seviro go at this point to look more like town. They already have an advantage and it could be worth saccing one mafia to ensure victory for the rest. Nova's case also came out of thin air as soon as I posted my three cases, which leads me to believe that mafia might've needed a fourth case to try and stretch out town as much as possible, especially after Grosmerr's case wasn't very convincing. Despite Nova's bad defense I still don't feel like he's mafia, if anything it feels more like bad townie play since it's such an unlikely mafia defense. This is all WIFOM though, but so is the argument of the Seviro train going too fast.
On March 26 2012 02:27 Mementoss wrote: Alright, this activity is bad, its day 2 its crucial we get a mafia kill here. Lets up the activity and find one of these scum. With that being said Im going to present a case right now. Lets look at the filter shall we?
Nova_Terra:
His meta is completely different. He explained that he changing the way he plays to improve his game. As vanilla town, he had long thought out posts, and pressure posts. In this game I read through his first 2 pages of filter, it 50% spam. The other 50% is dedicated to either responding to people, or asking peoples opinions on things usually leading the town in circles. Honestly, I can't even find anything to quote because its all useless.
He seems to be posting in fear and holding back. He posts a case about BlueyD, but it was very forced and weak. Things were taken out of context to make them look scummy, and things that weren't scummy were meant to look scummy. Such as the leadership thing.
Here is another thing that makes him seem suspicious. He totally ignored talk about the vig shot, until after it was done. He didn't want to push it cause he knew it would make him suspicious, but he didn't want to stop it because he knew sc2system was town. Maybe I should be suspicious for bringing it up, but as a mafia wouldn't that be too risky to do? I think the people we should look at are the people who ignored the topic who were active, these people being: Nova, Seviro, and BlueyD (but he was defending himself)
On March 25 2012 17:10 Nova_Terra wrote: Yeah, If you are the vig artanis you should have waited. We could have had a free mafia death at some point. At least, sc2system was relatively worthless, so it should be a bit easier to go scumhunting. BlueyD, i kind of think the point of the hit on froggynoddy is in essence exactly what you said. he was off the radar, and its hard to read anything from the hit. I will go into his filter today, but i really dont expect to find much, unless its based on WIFOM.
Says you shouldn't have shot, yet didn't say anything during the night when it was actually important.
Also in many instances in this game he is constantly apologetic. Doesn't want to get on anyones bad side, and is just slipping by.
On March 24 2012 06:47 Nova_Terra wrote: I am so sorry, i got caught up in a game of quake. I really feel bad. Mementoss, the main thing thats changed is that i am trying hard to not let behaviors bother me and change the way i play. I took a lot of flak last time around, and while i am still trying to be active and helpful i dont want to go all out aggression because i will get too caught up like last time. even to the point of deluding myself that i was totally right. I defended artanis because i think that it was an innocent mistake, albeit a bad one. For my reasons previously stated, i am voting for Rise of Fenix. his play is not helping us at all, and i do not find artanis or anyone else (until i analyze the filters hard tomorrow morning) more suspicious. ##Vote: Rise of Fenix
On March 24 2012 06:52 Nova_Terra wrote: Wow, i really messed up the time. Once again, sorry all, I promise that i will stick to it for sure next time. I will be on for another hour or so.
On March 25 2012 07:23 Nova_Terra wrote: Oh, sorry. I didnt read over the thread while i wrote it and was going by filters. I did understand that he had a reason for it. I just didnt think that the reason made much sense when he had said that he would vote for RoF if he didnt contribute. As Artanis just said, I do find the manner in which he tried to take leadership to be scummy. He has been guiding the town towards a certain lynch from this position, without being forced to post much analysis, which i think is a result of having made a couple posts that seemed to be from an authoritative position. Another thing that i did not like from this is that as he is seemingly capable, he isnt posting as much content as i think he could be, like what i should have noticed about you last game mementoss. Prelim votes is OK with me, but i think that as much of the town is relatively inactive getting a clear consensus right away will be a bit challenging. I also dont want people to leave a prelim vote and forget about it until relatively late in the day because of this inactivity. Please stay active! We cant just let scum lurk this out.
On March 25 2012 05:50 Nova_Terra wrote: sorry, got ninja'ed, i meant that to be for BlueyD.
Overall his play is just spammy, hes not taking the town forward, his meta is completely off his vanilla. He has had one unique opinion in 3 pages of filter. He seems to be just the one asking the questions, and apologizing. Rather than analysing play and applying pressure. He is taking the town in circles. He is probably in the scum QT posting huge plans, while in here just spamming up the thread.
The only reason I would think he was town, is because he defended Artanis's scum slip, and now it is shaping up for Artanis to be town. Other than that, I would be very sure this guy is scum. Maybe he just defended Artanis, to stay away from the same opinion of his scumbuddy seviro, who quickly after Artanis's case on him OMGUS'd and voted Artanis. But that is just WIFOM.
##Vote: Nova_Terra
Ok. I just went over last game briefly. Starting off with, i made an apparently "bad move" by FoS'ing somebody early. Then, i got mad and frustrated, and ended up spamming defense posts and some OMGUS. At least in the pages i read, i was responding to people calling me out and playing aggressively because i was lashing out at people. After last game, i learned that i wanted to play in a more "emotionless" manner where it wouldnt screw me up and cause me to post cases and analysis that goes totally incorrect because my mind wanted to lynch them for even daring to accuse something i did to be bad or wrong. I wanted to play more like Mementoss (which is a bad example as he was scum, but still accurate) but he really did seem like a helpful townie, and he just seemed like his behavior never changed when different things happened. His posts didnt have OMGUS, or terrible cases. I wanted to do just that. And that i feel accounts for my meta. My pressure posts made me feel like i didnt actually do anything. We ended up letting a mafia through and a townie die. Yet, I dont even get how it could have helped. We pressured a townie who posted and then left, and he didnt respond and so he died. Then i received flak for switching my vote off him when i thought he was innocent later. All that this reinforced to me was that i shouldnt play the way my brain thinks. because its suspicious, etc.
Enter this game. It starts in a week where i am busy to begin with with many tests, and my brain was scrambled to begin with. And i knew that i wanted to change up my play and play without this emotion crap. Because it was making me scummy. I've been trying to let people know that i agree with them in some issues here, and others there, to make myself as transparent as possible. And then every now and again, when some posts went through me, I went a little into rage mode. Immediately to shut it down, i kinda held back on analysis so i wouldnt let it influence my play, which i realize now makes no sense because by shutting down the analysis it was influencing my play.I was kinda scared about how i would come across because of how i was feeling. Strangely enough, this weekend i have had a relatively busy social schedule. Thats kind of new for me, and i realize this. Then i started missing deadlines (that i myself had made) and just not posting on time, making stupid lapses in judgement (like not reading the thread alongside filters and taking BlueyD's post out of context) as a result of me being out and about and/or playing games with friends. And i feel so bad about it, because i really didnt want to come off as suspicious but because of these little things i found that i was coming across in that manner, at least to myself, and thats why i've been apologising. Its so hard to be transparent when i was screwing up these little things, and i feel bad for making it so hard on the other townies to read me.
However, i was spending some time looking over filters. I still maintain that i find the leadership thing to be scummy. I cant remember if i explained why i did in a previous post, but please ask if you want me to again. Dont want to waste space if i dont have to.
Looking over the case, it definitely felt to me like it was certainly warranted and some things were suspicious, but it also felt like my case on seviro last game. I dont get why my analysis is apparently so bad, but all i know is that im trying to put tons of effort on these cases and nobodys really agreeing with it and it doesnt do anything.it feels terrible to be putting all the time and feeling into it and having it do nothing. Last night i came in after an exciting day out in the city, and finished my case, and then decided to relax for a little while and watch some MLG. yeah, i did see something about vigilante shot on sc2system, but at the time wasnt concerned about it and actually thought that it made sense as we wouldnt waste the day arguing about him (which i didnt post because people were taking flak for making posts to just agree with people), and only when i was literally falling asleep did i realize that the vigilante shot is pretty much a free kill against mafia if its used right, and didnt feel like getting up to go post to state my opinion. Not because i knew system was town or anything like that, I was just too damn tired around 1 in the morning. Which was another thing that i apologized for as i should have gotten up to do that.
So, to end this defense, I want to add my reads on everybody so far. Mementoss: Leaning far town, seems very inno which scares me as thats how i was thinking last game. Seviro: leaning scum, actually. I hope to provide analysis on him tonight or tomorrow during the day. artanis: most likely to be town, at least in my eyes Virtu: Relatively null. I havent really gotten any vibes from him at all. Posts some analysis (of last games play etc) but doesnt really seem to do much with it at least in my eyes. Nova_Terra (yes i am putting myself on my own list): null. hard to read because of not posting thoughts when they seem to arise. Michaelthe: null leaning scummy. makes some posts that i find were pretty good early game, but then he just randomly drops off and doesnt post much. One thing in his favor in my eyes is how he has been playing aggressively. Gossemerr: Null leaning town. I like the aggressiveness however. Ninja4ever.:Null. not a very active player, but he does come and post his thoughts a couple times a day. I dont like his activity however. BlueyD: Null leaning scummy. I still think my points on the position he has been taking in the game are valid, and i find that he got defensive pretty dang fast.
Alright lets respond to this defense.
First lets start off by underlining everything Nova_Terra said about IRL, and just not read it. Why? IRL stuff has nothing to do with the game, because it can be lied about and no one would know the difference. It is not acceptable as a defense in any form.
You shouldn't be scared to post as a vanilla townie. The only way scum is found is through posting your ideas. Re-read your posts from a different perspective to see how it sounds. No excuse to not be posting analysis. Stick to your guns if you think your right, correct yourself if you think you are wrong and explain why the change of thought. No apologizing needed.
While you maintain your opinion on leadership, I maintain my opinion that it is bullshit. Not only is it not a good scum argument, it could scare BlueyD and other newer players away from posting, because they don't want this "leadershit" stuff to come back and haunt them. And why BlueyD? I would consider myself in that role more than him. I put out a case that lead to a townie lynch, and was the first to suggest a vigshot on another townie. Would I rathered one or both of them to flip scum? Of course. Am I pissed at myself about it? Not really. It did its job at getting rid of 2 confusing shitty players. Confirmed a townie that was leaning scum in a couple peoples eyes. And took a lot of time that woulda been wasted pushing/pressure sc2system and Artanis. Now we can continue with the game. It gained time and added information, 2 very important resources.
About people not agreeing with your case and putting time into it. This game is not being able to be right and finding scum. Its about being able to convince people to agree with your opinions. No matter how much your right about finding scum, if you cant convince the rest of the town, it will not matter. Don't let this discourage you, keep getting better.
About people saying its a free kill against a mafia? No it isn't. You realize how hard it would be for Artanis to survive to a point where it actually would be this situation. Hell we mighta lynched him day 2. At least it wasn't wasted in a death, and helped the town and gave information. Which is helpful at anytime.
Then to end your defense you post something scummy. Ugh. This list is not helpful to me. If your posting with purpose and concisely. You should be able to know someones read on everyone just by reading their filter. The list basically says who you think is scum and half a sentence explanation. Would it not make more sense to just post a post based on the explanation? This doesn't pressure the players, it doesn't generate discussion and is easy way for mafia to "contribute" while he can just put a townie label on his mafia friends and scum on the popular choices.
Im not retracting my vote on you at the moment. Let the discussion continue. I want to see some opinions. We have a relatively good chance of killing a scum today, and it would be huge to do so.
Also i was spending a ton of time on my seviro case and just relaxed after that. Okay, advice taken. Why do you think that it isnt scummy to talk as if you are giving directions and then hanging back after that? after he made those posts, he didnt really do much to back up his position at all, and that made it suspicious for me. I noted BlueyD for that because he didnt really back up his position with anything meaningfull, where as you did and seemed very pro town. Yeah, i need help learning how to make my cases better. something is apparently going terribly wrong, somewhere. However, i definitely think my case vs Seviro has merit and brings up some very good points. I dont really think sc2systems death gave much information at all. correct me if i am wrong. yes, okay, maybe it isnt a free kill, but i think there are much better ways to use that shot later, if he could survive until then.
A brief overview of my reads is scummy? i thought you guys were getting on my case for not posting much thoughts/analysis, and i thought this was a good way to do this. I think that a reads post can generate good discussion as it helps people see where people are coming from and it can show inconsistencies between different peoples reads. And if i was mafia it wouldnt make sense to me label my mafia friends as townie, because if one of them gets lynched (or if i did) who wouldit reflect badly on? Me/them. Also, if this is scummy to you, i want to note that seviro does pretty much the same thing (with a little bit more content) in one of his next posts.
Around the time of my case seviro started attracting a lot of attention resulting in a couple fast votes. right now, the votes are tied at 4-4 with virtu being the odd one out. Therefore, i dont think the train is going too fast. a very precarious position o.o
Yes, Im so on the fence right now its unbelievable. It would be amazing if you were both scum buddies but that seems to be me just hoping hard. And yes I did note that Seviro did the exact same scummy thing as you.
On March 27 2012 04:20 Mementoss wrote: Yes, Im so on the fence right now its unbelievable. It would be amazing if you were both scum buddies but that seems to be me just hoping hard. And yes I did note that Seviro did the exact same scummy thing as you.
It has to be so amazing to be host right now if only one of these two is mafia.
Me too, i dont think he even posted after my case on seviro. i think i noted in my ("scummy") reads thing that he was kinda lurking and comes on and posts 2 relevant posts and ourks again. Mementoss, a question for you, you said in an earlier post that you are more inclined to lynch seviro to get info on michael, correct? Then what are your thoughts now and have they changed from then?
"If we lynch Seviro and Seviro flips town, Michael would be highly suspicious and so would Nova Terra. If we lynch Seviro and Seviro flips scum, Michael would be off my radar, and Nova would still remain suspicious.
If we lynch Nova_Terra and he flips town, I would be highly suspicious, and ninja4ever would be partially suspicious. If we lynch Nova_Terra and he flips scum, I would be off the radar, and ninja4ever wouldn't be that suspicious."
This is what I said, and I still stand by it. However, lynch first who you think is scummiest, not by what information it can give you. Seviro is for sure the safest lynch, information wise. But either way, if we don't lynch a scum today its a huge loss, nothing can give us more information than a scum lynch.
Right now Michael is kinda looking town but im not sure, he pushed the first case/vote against seviro today. Which would be ambitious for a mafia player to do, however he pushed Artanis really hard day one, this doesn't make him scummy. But it is possible that scum was taking advantage of a town slip to really kill an active townie day 1.
Also WIFOM from the night kill leads me to believe mafia wanted us to go after Michael because Froggy put a case on him, then died. Only other significant thing Froggy did was point out an inconsistency on Seviro. So it kinda leads back to Seviro because at the first of the day Seviro put a case on Michael, to hope to get someone would agree with him and get a bandwagon on him, later on someone would surely mention the WIFOM to strengthen the case on Michael. But, this is all too WIFOM for me to base important decisions on.
in early game, he played aggressively to start out which i liked. however, since then, the quality of play has gone down substantially. i just took a foray into his filter. I definitely think he goes a bit overboard on his ultimatum (which he didnt follow?) and the artanis slip thing. i can see the point of both, but he went a bit too off. He had some wishy-washyness to his vote patterns, which can be explained a bit by avoiding no lynch, but it became apparent to me that ALL 3 of the people he switched between were/are town (as i think artanis is certain at this point). he jumped happily on every little mistake that has arisen throughout the game (refered to in some guide as cherry picking town mistakes i think). After last game, i actually gave up on my "discrediting tell" philosophy, where if you call some analysis/case bad, it is often a scum move because cases which have a bad reaction to them are not thought of and taken as serious as one without any opinions on it so far. upon reading his filter, what i classified as aggressiveness in playstyle went right into discrediting and being just plain rude. He frequently has been calling points terrible and weak, even refusing to respond to a so called "weak case" made by seviro i believe. entirely wrong attitude. it also seems likes hes going heavy into gossemerr without much behind it. not so sure why. I think gossemerr is leaning town, and in general his play has been helpful. anyway, if seviro wasnt more suspicious at this point in time, i would be putting down michaelthe for this lynch (unless something else big came up). its likely that my vote tomorrow will be on michaelthe bar some other case developing.
Please be a replacement for virtu if nothng else. A modkill would really kill us i should think.
Also going to post a quick analysis on gossemerr, because he is also taking some suspicion(at least from artanis) and therefore i feel inclined to post some of my thoughts on him. So, Gosse starts off the game very aggressively, which, similar to michael, i like early. his activity dropped off a bit after his first couple posts (where a good bit of aggressive voting goes on, may be WIFOM but that just doesnt seem like much of a scum behavior to me) which bothered me initially, but as time went on gosse posted relatively regurally each time bringinf things to the table. one of the first 2 RoF votes as well as bringing up sc2system etc. and because of these i am less inclined to think scum compared to a late voter. He actually has one of the smaller/smallest filters in the game, but each post is deliberate and he does post analysis that speaks to his advantage. of course, he is currently on the wrong side of the lynch today, but even so, i think he is leaning towards townie 65-70%.
On March 27 2012 04:57 Nova_Terra wrote: Just want to make a brief analysis on Michaelthe.
in early game, he played aggressively to start out which i liked. however, since then, the quality of play has gone down substantially. i just took a foray into his filter. I definitely think he goes a bit overboard on his ultimatum (which he didnt follow?) and the artanis slip thing. i can see the point of both, but he went a bit too off. He had some wishy-washyness to his vote patterns, which can be explained a bit by avoiding no lynch, but it became apparent to me that ALL 3 of the people he switched between were/are town (as i think artanis is certain at this point). he jumped happily on every little mistake that has arisen throughout the game (refered to in some guide as cherry picking town mistakes i think). After last game, i actually gave up on my "discrediting tell" philosophy, where if you call some analysis/case bad, it is often a scum move because cases which have a bad reaction to them are not thought of and taken as serious as one without any opinions on it so far. upon reading his filter, what i classified as aggressiveness in playstyle went right into discrediting and being just plain rude. He frequently has been calling points terrible and weak, even refusing to respond to a so called "weak case" made by seviro i believe. entirely wrong attitude. it also seems likes hes going heavy into gossemerr without much behind it. not so sure why. I think gossemerr is leaning town, and in general his play has been helpful. anyway, if seviro wasnt more suspicious at this point in time, i would be putting down michaelthe for this lynch (unless something else big came up). its likely that my vote tomorrow will be on michaelthe bar some other case developing.
Please be a replacement for virtu if nothng else. A modkill would really kill us i should think.
Wait what? He currently has zero votes and with 7 hours to go I highly doubt you could get enough votes on him still. This lynch is pretty much between you and seviro right now, we need to lynch a mafia. today. or we'll be wasting a day. The fact that you want to lynch Michaelthe instead is suspicious to me. You should know that with 7 hours to go the chance of someone going from 0 to 5 votes is fairly unlikely.
Okay, I don't think that both Seviro AND Nova are town. This is going to be WIFOM, but I want to point it out. Why would they both through each other under the bus?
This post kinda came off weird to me. posts some stuff about last game, says how we shouldnt be inactive, and ends on kind of a weird note about pressuring lurkers but not lynching too fast. which is especially strange when later in the day he randomly votes for a lurker.
If you're talking about ROS, at the time I voted on him he already had quite a lot of post, they were just not making any sense. And the Virtu vote was more like me pointing out that he said he would post his thought and that 22 hour later he had still not posted.
This is one of the posts that i feel the weirdest about. he says that we should have some soft deadline which i had already stated and he agreed on, and then says we can discuss and that if someone has nobody they think is suspicious at all they can just vote No-Lynch no problem and then just switch it later when they feel like? Seems to me like hes encouraging sc2system-like behavior. really weird.
At least by voting no-Lynch it is clear for everyone that they don'T have a clue yet as oppose that if they just didn't vote.
Then he clears this up saying not to no-lynch, but I still don’t think that his point makes sense, its just encouraging people to say that they are undecided, then wait until last minute and flip with little explanation of their own.
I don’t really think that seviro handled defending this case well.it came off very defensive and the end was just OMGUS. One thing I want to note is that he says pressuring is asking people to post thoughts and respond to questions, and lynching is voting them down. In his next few posts he just goes on about how rise of fenix is just probably bad in general, but it isn’t really helping anything. He doesn’t want to lynch him, but doesn’t really present any other option? Scummy.
Of course it came off defensive, every single point were due to it being Day 1, these point were true for other people too as you mentionned after his post. And at this point, I was not feeling anyone was more scummy than another one since other than the lurker everyone had about the same activity and were just chit-chatting.
And then when RoF posts saying he will try to make it up he goes a bit weird.
On March 24 2012 05:48 Seviro wrote:
On March 24 2012 05:36 Rise Of Fenix wrote: give me another chance, please. I will make up my terrible play today tommorow.
Dude you still have about 6 hour left before today's deadline. At the rate thi is going you won'T be alive tomorrow anyway, if you want to defend yourself and step up your play it is today. With a post like this it seems like you don'T even try so we might as well lynch you right now.
At this point it starts to go back to the thing about how he just wants to pressure lurkers and not lynch. Now hes just threatening him to post or die, which isn’t really wanting to “not lynch lurkers immediately”
At this point ROS was no more a lurker, he had all the time that he wanted to posting something that had some value but all we got was "I'll be better tomorrow".It's not like it was his only post.
Lolwut? This is just…. Says lurkers should be pressured (which apparently means asking them directly for their opinion and not voting >Votes for lurker for no reason other than him not having been there for 22 hours That’s just contradicting and scummy. Then he switches between Virtu and RoF (also a lurker)
As said above, the vote on Virtu was mostly pointing out that he didn't post for 22 hour when he said he would.
After I post my case, the only thing I get from him is Hum, some good point there. No other thoughts on the case at all. Not really suspicious there, but to not share any thoughts on it at all?
Ok, I didn'T say clearly "Yes I agree with you", but I added 2 quote that were strenghtening your case. What would I do that had I disagree?.
On March 25 2012 06:39 BlueyD wrote: And I didn't like that he had a "pressure but no lynch" opinion on lurkers at first, but then switched his vote to Virtu for his period of inactivity, despite many ok Virtu posts before. "Flexible in opinion" is how I'd describe Seviro, and that's not a compliment...
This is what I meant by pressure but not necessarly lynch, I put my vote on him and then he came and posted his thought so I switched back. This is what I call pressure play.
Mhm, compare this to
Pressuring is forcing them to post by asking them directly their opinion on a subject so that we can more precisely find who is scum and who is not.
No? you call a pressure play a play where you ask someone to post their opinion on a subject.
Virtu's case was different since he did say he would come and post. I knoew it was coming so it was just kind of a reminder.
He posts some seeming analysis on Mementoss and more importantly TheMichael but doesn’t really do anything with it. This is his first “real” case/important analysis. Most of his content has been defense or fluff.
What would I do with it? I mentioned why I did this little case on Mementoss and then I waited for Micalethe's answers.
The main thing I noticed in his defense is really how defensive and angry he got. Scum traits.
Maybe it did seems defensive and angry, but most of his point were based on false fact, saying me say something I didn'T and thing that I already answered so of course I got a little impatient.
In the post he says that the other person is understanding badly, makes this Inb4 crap, says that themichael is arrogant etc and has a certain attitude (not saying themichael isn’t scummy, hope to post my thoughts on him relatively soon after this case) but its just rude, and seems OMGUS himself.
Since the Artanis/Seviro case, every case I got on me were basically saying the same thing overall. Most of the point that are against me I defended them over and over again and it seems that no one notice since thehy keep coming back as if they were new. And I stand by the fact that micaelthe is needlessly discrediting others post by saying things like he did. (I don't know if you remember last game but you said yourself that it is a scum trait.)
Since it seems that one of us will fall today, i'll put my vote on you and if something major happens, I might change.
On March 22 2012 23:42 BlueyD wrote: People I consider to be lurkers right now, until further notice:
Seviro (one useless post, but he's there) Rise of Fenix (one useless post calling me a townie for posting first, I want his opinion on day 1 lynching) Ninja4Ever (he did say he would post later)
No one is entirely inactive, but most people seem to agree to lynch a lurker day 1. This means we have to start thinking about who to lynch if there's no convenient lurker.
On Gossemer's early vote for Mementoss: He was q
My post wasn't useless, I had to post something before going to bed and I can't post while i'm asleep sorry .
As for the lurker lynch we should really put pressure on this, as Mementoss and Nova said, last game all three scums were very active and it was easy for them to control the flow of the game. It is useless to have the number advantage if half of the town only post once in a while just to make sure they are not modkilled. If you look at last day of last game (SNMMVIII) we were 5 town/3 scums and in one day we lynched a townie and 2 others got modkilled, and one of the lurkers was a Blue. This overall inactivity was a good part of why we lose the game since every lurker that we targetted flipped town.
That said we should put pressure on lurker but not lynch them to fast because last game's situation will happen again and we will die horribly.
This post kinda came off weird to me. posts some stuff about last game, says how we shouldnt be inactive, and ends on kind of a weird note about pressuring lurkers but not lynching too fast. which is especially strange when later in the day he randomly votes for a lurker.
On March 23 2012 07:58 Seviro wrote: there's no haste to vote yet, it's just that you said you would wait about and hour before the deadline before your vote, which is really late.
It will be best for everyone if we say something like 8 to 6 hour before the deadline we should post what is our vote at that moment. At this point we can discuss and see what would be the best for the town. If at the time of the "soft" deadline you have no one that you think is more suspicious than the other you can always vote for no-lynch and change your vote later.
This is one of the posts that i feel the weirdest about. he says that we should have some soft deadline which i had already stated and he agreed on, and then says we can discuss and that if someone has nobody they think is suspicious at all they can just vote No-Lynch no problem and then just switch it later when they feel like? Seems to me like hes encouraging sc2system-like behavior. really weird.
On March 23 2012 08:05 Seviro wrote: It depends, on day 1 it is bad since we have no informations whatsoever if we don'T lynch someone, but later in the game a no lynch can be better than a mislynch. It does seems scummy but at time it can be good (rarely tho).
But my point was not to no lynch, it was that you can vote no-lynch like 6-8 hour before the deadline if you don't know who to vote for and then with the discussion that follow you can make up your mind.
Then he clears this up saying not to no-lynch, but I still don’t think that his point makes sense, its just encouraging people to say that they are undecided, then wait until last minute and flip with little explanation of their own.
On March 22 2012 14:55 Seviro wrote: I just noticed it had started and now I'm going to bed so I can't speak much now. I'll come back tomorrow to participate more.
It's my second game myself (SNMMVIII, perfect win for mafia and I was among the last survivor, yay!)
Introductory post. Pretty much no content other than saying he'll post again later.
On March 22 2012 23:42 BlueyD wrote: People I consider to be lurkers right now, until further notice:
Seviro (one useless post, but he's there) Rise of Fenix (one useless post calling me a townie for posting first, I want his opinion on day 1 lynching) Ninja4Ever (he did say he would post later)
No one is entirely inactive, but most people seem to agree to lynch a lurker day 1. This means we have to start thinking about who to lynch if there's no convenient lurker.
On Gossemer's early vote for Mementoss: He was q
My post wasn't useless, I had to post something before going to bed and I can't post while i'm asleep sorry .
As for the lurker lynch we should really put pressure on this, as Mementoss and Nova said, last game all three scums were very active and it was easy for them to control the flow of the game. It is useless to have the number advantage if half of the town only post once in a while just to make sure they are not modkilled. If you look at last day of last game (SNMMVIII) we were 5 town/3 scums and in one day we lynched a townie and 2 others got modkilled, and one of the lurkers was a Blue. This overall inactivity was a good part of why we lose the game since every lurker that we targetted flipped town.
That said we should put pressure on lurker but not lynch them to fast because last game's situation will happen again and we will die horribly.
Wants to pressure for lurker lynch when this is pretty much established in town, the whole paragraph goes on about how lurking is bad which has pretty much been established already. Somewhat defends lurkers in the same post which is odd.
On March 23 2012 04:37 Nova_Terra wrote: Seviro, while i agree with your post, i dont get how we can put pressure on lurkers but not lynch them fast, as thats really the only way to pressure them.
Pretty much what froggy said, last game we didn't really pressure them as much, yes we were talking a lot about lynching them but as soon as they posted like 1 or 2 post we were ok and were going on another subject. If we are talking about something, we need to have the opinion of everyone. I'll take Eleanthas of last game as an example, everytime he posted something he was completely ignoring the discussion that was going on, that should not happen.
And about Rise, posting your thought about 1 hour before the deadline is possibly the more scummy thing you could do as the deadline is relatively late and a lot of people are not around at the time. Voting at this time is basically a ninja vote and it is not right to do so since, as Nova said we wouldn't have enough time to discuss about it and change our vote if need be.
Agrees with another townie to gain cred, this is a trend in Seviro's posts; rarely comes up with any own ideas and mostly agrees with other townies to 'blend in'. Also jumps on the against the 1 hour bandwagon which is fairly obvious. Long post basically stating the obvious and agreeing with other people.
On March 23 2012 06:22 Nova_Terra wrote: michaelthe could you make that 12 hours for them? some of them might live in europe and they have my sympathy. Also would everyone be okay with a 6 hour soft deadline?
I'm okay with 6 but I'd like 8 more. 6 feel kind of short.
On March 23 2012 07:58 Seviro wrote: there's no haste to vote yet, it's just that you said you would wait about and hour before the deadline before your vote, which is really late.
It will be best for everyone if we say something like 8 to 6 hour before the deadline we should post what is our vote at that moment. At this point we can discuss and see what would be the best for the town. If at the time of the "soft" deadline you have no one that you think is more suspicious than the other you can always vote for no-lynch and change your vote later.
These are exactly the type of contributions that scum is fine with doing, as they don't really 'help' the town in any way. The Rise of Fenix train is going nicely, which if he's just a bad townie is fine for mafia.
On March 23 2012 08:05 Seviro wrote: It depends, on day 1 it is bad since we have no informations whatsoever if we don'T lynch someone, but later in the game a no lynch can be better than a mislynch. It does seems scummy but at time it can be good (rarely tho).
But my point was not to no lynch, it was that you can vote no-lynch like 6-8 hour before the deadline if you don't know who to vote for and then with the discussion that follow you can make up your mind.
Are you suddenly suggesting to no lynch? We've pretty much all agreed that not lynching day 1 is bad because of lack of information. People should vote on suspicion regardless.
On March 23 2012 08:10 Seviro wrote: EBWOP, If we agree that everyone should have a vote posted at a set time before the deadline (since no one disagreed right now let's say 8 to 6 hour) we can then make a better choice for the lynch of this day and if someone fail to do so then he is most likely to be proposed as a lunch candidate.
But now I think everyone should post what are their thought about that, if they agree etc. If we want to be able to win this, we need to work together and to not let 1 or 2 people take the control of the town.
Continuing on with something that really isn't that crucial and if people agree to 8 hours instead of 6 there's nothing groundbreaking that will be decided.
Based on all these posts that pretty much say nothing at all and seem to want to blend in most of all which seems like scum behaviour to me, though it's just a suspicion, I'm voting for Seviro for now. At worst it'll spark some more discussion.
##Vote Seviro
Wants to pressure for lurker lynch when this is pretty much established in town, the whole paragraph goes on about how lurking is bad which has pretty much been established already. Somewhat defends lurkers in the same post which is odd.
I already answered what I meant by that, pressuring and lynching are two different thing. Pressuring is forcing them to post by asking them directly their opinion on a subject so that we can more precisely find who is scum and who is not. A scum under pressure is most likely to post than a town in my opinion.
Agrees with another townie to gain cred, this is a trend in Seviro's posts; rarely comes up with any own ideas and mostly agrees with other townies to 'blend in'. Also jumps on the against the 1 hour bandwagon which is fairly obvious. Long post basically stating the obvious and agreeing with other people.
Ok, so I can't agree with anyone that's what you're saying? I mean I wasn'T online after Nova question and Froggy kind of answered him in my place and I just pointed out that it was indeed what I meant.
On March 23 2012 04:54 froggynoddy wrote: What I have been saying (and I think what Seviro is saying), is to be able to analyse behaviour you need to get actions and reactions from people. The analysis then has to be correct in of itself. The decision to lynch should therefore be based on 1. information (gathered by pressuring, amongst other ways) 2. Correct analysis. But without 1. we shall never be able to do 2. And therefore any decisions to lynch will be less strong.
These are exactly the type of contributions that scum is fine with doing, as they don't really 'help' the town in any way. The Rise of Fenix train is going nicely, which if he's just a bad townie is fine for mafia.
Ok, so now I'm suspicious because i'm not badwagonning? I don'T really see your point here.
Are you suddenly suggesting to no lynch? We've pretty much all agreed that not lynching day 1 is bad because of lack of information. People should vote on suspicion regardless.
Way to miss the point, I won't bother explaining again since what you quoted was clear and you just seem to want to make me look scummy by making me say what I didn'T say.
Continuing on with something that really isn't that crucial and if people agree to 8 hours instead of 6 there's nothing groundbreaking that will be decided.
It is not that crucial but if we can come up with something like this we will be a lot more organized and will have time to discuss all the votes before the actual deadline. Once again I explained it very well.
Now that you put yourself on the stage, let's take a look at you.
On March 22 2012 21:12 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Hey guys, just woke up, sorry for not replying yet. 3am is quite late for us Europeans, but I'm here now This is my third or fourth game of TL Mafia, I've organized Insane Mafia before which was an absolutely insane game and a ton of fun. I'm also pro lynching someone on day 1 as lynches are the only reliable way to kill mafia. We don't know if there's a vigilante in the game, but I don't think we can count on it. We should also treat any roleclaims with suspicion. Don't blindly follow anyone that claims, or anyone that makes long posts. Think for yourself and don't jump on bandwagons. From what I've seen in other games this is generally what kills towns. Mafia is by definition more organized so they're better at bandwagoning, though a smart mafia will never have everyone voting on one person. However, if there's any risk of a mafia getting lynched they'll normally switch their votes off so anyone that switches votes at the last minute should be viewed with suspicion.
Introductory post, little content else than the obvious and some WIFOM toward the end
On March 23 2012 05:24 Rise Of Fenix wrote: Day one lynching is always a solid plan to move foreward, but no real tells are showing thus far. I will likely post my thoughts about 1 hour before the deadline. But not lynching anyone only benefits the scum.
Why would you not post your thoughts now instead of one hour before the deadline? We could actually discuss them if you post it now, there's no reason not to.
On of the first to tell what everyone else will say after. (People can have the same opinion, it'S not necessary badwagonning)
On March 24 2012 01:22 Artanis[Xp] wrote: @Nova_Terra however bandwagoning on everything and making large posts that basically say "I agree" IS scummy, because the length of the post can make it seem like you're contributing when in fact you're not saying anything new. Sure, others have done this as well, but I haven't seen anyone else make such long posts without any real 'content'.
I agree that my posts are kind of long but just because you are missing every point that I make it doesn't mean that I have no content.
On March 24 2012 02:07 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Also, to my defense, if I was mafia I'd probably have a large accusatory post proofread by the other mafia. The chance of a slip like that happening in that case are much smaller. And to correct myself, when I said town I simply meant all players, not specifically town aligned.
This defense is not valid as it is only WIFOM. (It's a newbie game after all)
Now I hate to do that, but I need to vote on you for now. In your case on me you were purposely (or not) missing all my point to make me look scummy and that for me is a lot more scummy. so for now
##Vote: Artanis[Xp]
I don’t really think that seviro handled defending this case well.it came off very defensive and the end was just OMGUS. One thing I want to note is that he says pressuring is asking people to post thoughts and respond to questions, and lynching is voting them down. In his next few posts he just goes on about how rise of fenix is just probably bad in general, but it isn’t really helping anything. He doesn’t want to lynch him, but doesn’t really present any other option? Scummy.
And then when RoF posts saying he will try to make it up he goes a bit weird.
On March 24 2012 05:36 Rise Of Fenix wrote: give me another chance, please. I will make up my terrible play today tommorow.
Dude you still have about 6 hour left before today's deadline. At the rate thi is going you won'T be alive tomorrow anyway, if you want to defend yourself and step up your play it is today. With a post like this it seems like you don'T even try so we might as well lynch you right now.
At this point it starts to go back to the thing about how he just wants to pressure lurkers and not lynch. Now hes just threatening him to post or die, which isn’t really wanting to “not lynch lurkers immediately”
On March 24 2012 06:00 Seviro wrote: I want to point out that it'S been a bit more than 22 hour since virtu last post. He did said he'll post today but I have yet to see anything from him. I think for now i'll put my vote on him until he comes out.
##unvote: Artanis[Xp] ##Vote: Virtu
Lolwut? This is just…. Says lurkers should be pressured (which apparently means asking them directly for their opinion and not voting >Votes for lurker for no reason other than him not having been there for 22 hours That’s just contradicting and scummy. Then he switches between Virtu and RoF (also a lurker)
In his next couple posts he just adds how system needs to be looked at. Oh, and then theres this which bugged me a bit
On March 24 2012 07:57 BlueyD wrote: Note: I haven't vote counted, but I'm still here for a few hours (MLG yay!) and will switch for Rise if we need a majority when the time limit gets near, but I would much prefer to see sc2master lynched.
On March 24 2012 08:38 BlueyD wrote: Hint to Rise, if he's still around: Switching his vote to sc2system might let him stay alive another day.
It seems like it is 100% sure that these two are the lynch target for the first 2 day when everything can happen during day 1 that can change anything.
Personnally after seeing Rise flip Town I think that Sc2system is most likely a town that can't put his thought together. I believe that his day 1 posting are mostly inexperienced post and that if he try a bit he could come up with some good thing. I just know that for now i'm not willing to vote for him on day 2 yet.
After I post my case, the only thing I get from him is Hum, some good point there. No other thoughts on the case at all. Not really suspicious there, but to not share any thoughts on it at all?
His thoughts on system were pretty much yeah hes probably bad townie but not sure if worth a lynch etc. Yeah, everyone knows hes suspicious.
On March 25 2012 06:39 BlueyD wrote: And I didn't like that he had a "pressure but no lynch" opinion on lurkers at first, but then switched his vote to Virtu for his period of inactivity, despite many ok Virtu posts before. "Flexible in opinion" is how I'd describe Seviro, and that's not a compliment...
This is what I meant by pressure but not necessarly lynch, I put my vote on him and then he came and posted his thought so I switched back. This is what I call pressure play.
Mementoss: He was the first one to make a real case against Rise Of Fenix which really started the train rolling in my opinion. While Rise was doing a great job of sinking himself into bad and bad post, peolple started to look more into it after this case. He also was the first one to point out sc2system lurkerness.These two people had already been mentionned beforehand, respectively by Gossemer and Ninja4ever. My point is, not that it mean anything since it was the same for a lot of people, his two main suspect flipped town which is worth pointing out I think.
Now, this is not scummy in itself but I also saw a little inconsistency in his posting.
On March 22 2012 20:41 Mementoss wrote: Therefore, I say we lynch a lurker/useless poster day 1, unless we have a significant scum slip. Why is this beneifical to us the town, even though there is a good chance it will be a townie? 1) Helps narrow down the field for scum hunting later 2) Keeps the active ratio higher for discussion 3) Attempts to keep replacements out of the game, which are always difficult to read and deal with as one persons scum meta =/= the other persons. .
Then, later he is the one who notice the slip of artanis
Note the bolded/underlined, its both because its a very big mistake. A very big scum slip. Why is it such a huge deal? Because we have no clue if Nova_Terra is town. AT ALL. Here are the possibilities:
1) He is scum, he knows peoples roles, therefore he knows Nova_Terra is town. Slipped it by mistake. 2) He is scum, Nova_Terra is scum, he is quick to give the idea to the rest that Nova is confirmed town, when there is no proof behind it. Just saying it because Nova is active. 3) He is town, bad town play, making assumptions that lead to town not exploring all the possibilities, getting tunnelled away from someone (See me as mafia SNMM VIII)
Dat scum slip
If we follow his reasoning, At this point Artanis had 66% chance of being a scum but even then he didn't put a vote even after:
On March 24 2012 05:24 Mementoss wrote: @Artanis, I don't believe your defense, but its not enough to warrant a day 1 lynch. Now that I have given Seviro a chance to defend, your case against him seemed weak to me. It was basically him discussing things that were going on in the thread, while they were important, don't see how this is scummy.
He point out the slip, don't believe the defense, have stated in his first post that he would vote a lurker/useless poster unless a scum slip like this happened, be even then he doesn't put his vote on him once.
Now, since Artanis is a confirmed townie now (unless a counter claim but at this point I doubt it), it is not inherently scummy but these littles inconsistencies are worth mentionning if we want to scum hunt effectively.
My main suspect now is Micaelthe: Here is Froggy post about his early game so I won't have to repeat it.
Additionally, I would suggest we open with a lurker lynch strategy. Stating our willingness to lynch a lurker should force activity. If push comes to shove, we must follow through, but hopefully it will force no lurkers. I know mafia tips suggest policy lynches are bad, but I think it's hard to get the ball rolling in newbie games.
I've been reading FAQs and strategy and whatnot (I missed getting last game by a bit :/) but still had to look up OMGUS. So here is a webpage I found useful: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Main_Page
I would still like to go back and read the opening day of some of the newbie games. I will do this regardless, but I think it would be beneficial for those that played in those newbie games to go back, reread, and offer analysis of those games as well (or even if you didn't play like me!) My point is we can't analyze players who haven't played any games very accurately, but we can analyze strategy of past newbie games.
Your third point is some very weak finger pointing:
I know it is hard to contribute on Day1 in a newbie game, but again, the only way to force... is to force it... Post anything of value to this game of mafia. Even a weak thought about who looks suspicious, who doesn't, if you think we should day1 lynch etc.
Posts that say nothing "HI GUYS" are equal to not posting in my book. As are posts simply agreeing with another post. Try and post some original thought, regardless of how weak it is.
I've made a spreadsheet with posts and ranked posts according to a day1-content scale I made. These are the three lowest people:
1)sc2system 2)Ninja4ever 3)Froggynoddy
You all have posts, but not enough substance!
ULTIMATUM: Post something of value within 8 hours or you are getting my vote!
There is pretty much nothing to go by. Your content is zilch, you are putting suspicion on people who have more content than you; I have argued that forcing lurkers to post is beneficial to town, more convincingly than you have (as has seviro and to a certain extent Nova_Terra), yet you put a really weak case forward against three posters.
I'm not voting for you YET but you seriously need to shape up. Accusing players who have posted content in day 1 seems scummy to me as there is so little to go by.
On March 23 2012 06:16 michaelthe wrote: I know it is hard to contribute on Day1 in a newbie game, but again, the only way to force... is to force it... Post anything of value to this game of mafia. Even a weak thought about who looks suspicious, who doesn't, if you think we should day1 lynch etc.
Posts that say nothing "HI GUYS" are equal to not posting in my book. As are posts simply agreeing with another post. Try and post some original thought, regardless of how weak it is.
I've made a spreadsheet with posts and ranked posts according to a day1-content scale I made. These are the three lowest people:
1)sc2system 2)Ninja4ever 3)Froggynoddy
You all have posts, but not enough substance!
ULTIMATUM: Post something of value within 8 hours or you are getting my vote!
How in the world is Fenix not number one on this list?
Actually, completely by accident. He should be below sc2system and ninja, but above froggy.
I was tracking posts by quality and page by assigning a value to each post from 0 (greeting, basic chatter), 1 (very basic, but maybe an opinion), 2 (basic thoughts), or 3 (solid attempt at analysis for day1). Best I could do for day1... I suspect filters and exact content will matter more on day 2 or 3+
The scores are as follows:
sc2system: 0,0 (a few posts on day1 I lumpped I think) Ninja: 0,0 Froggy: 0,1,1
And, as you said and I missed: Fenix: 1,1 (Argentina)
So I will add him to the list, I guess in fairness I will give him 8 hours from this post, so an extra 40 minutes or whatever
On March 23 2012 06:22 Nova_Terra wrote: michaelthe could you make that 12 hours for them? some of them might live in europe and they have my sympathy. Also would everyone be okay with a 6 hour soft deadline?
not much of an ultimatum if I change it 5 minutes later!
You're Euro.. what time is it there?
Then his first actual vote happen 23 hour after his ultimatum whereas he said an ultimatum of 8 hour more so that he vote for someone that is not on his list.
Which lead me to talk about the "Feudian slip" as he calls it.
He seems to insist a lot on this than needed, now that we already had ROS and sc2system under the radar he bring back a point that had been discuss hours before as if since ROS and sc2system where dead men walking at this stage if he could change day 1 lynch then day 2 and 3 would have been a big mess for the town.
I'll point out also that he was not the first to vote for Artanis since my vote was still on him and most of his opinion were mostly reformulating. Then, at the end of the day he just follow the bandwagon as he see that Artanis won't get lynched.
Sorry for the lenght of the post, longer than expected.
He posts some seeming analysis on Mementoss and more importantly TheMichael but doesn’t really do anything with it. This is his first “real” case/important analysis. Most of his content has been defense or fluff.
Initial Day 2 Thoughts At the end of day1, I reread the argument between Seviro and Artanis. While I was pretty sure Artanis was scum, I thought Seviro's reponse was absurd. I came to the conclusion that one of these two were most likely scum... Since Artanis is now mostly-confirmed, the attack on Seviro gained another look.
On Seviro:
(This is based heavily on his filter, pull it up if you want to see specific posts, this is already long enough without them all) First substantial post after initial wave of basic crap:
On March 23 2012 08:10 Seviro wrote: EBWOP, If we agree that everyone should have a vote posted at a set time before the deadline (since no one disagreed right now let's say 8 to 6 hour) we can then make a better choice for the lynch of this day and if someone fail to do so then he is most likely to be proposed as a lunch candidate.
He is suggesting a policy lynch based on not voting within an 8 hour deadline. The reason policy lynches are bad is because it removes analysis and focuses only on the policy. This one specifically means someone would be a lynch target simply for voting 4 hours from the deadline rather than 8. If you get scum to meet the deadline, the scum get a free town kill.
Seviro's reponse to Artanis Attack. I was fairly certain Artanis was scum, after what I saw as a strong slip. But I think the vig claim was great (more on that later). I reread the Artanis / Servio post and thought Artanis' attack was simple (based on day1 stuffs..) but Serviro WAY overreacted with his defense. He went on to vote for Artanis in his defense, which is a TERRBIE move!
FOUR minutes later he states a willingness to go after Fenix...
After the Fenix train picks up some steam, he totally forgets about Artanis.
Then he changes OFF Artanis and... onto Virtu, for not being active enough. His acusations are extremely fickle. He ends the day by jumping on the same train as everyone, Fenix.
After Day1, he posts that he thinks sc2system is town. He has defended bad play of Fenix and SC2 as town. ONLY MAFIA KNOW WHO TOWNIES ARE!
On March 25 2012 06:39 BlueyD wrote: And I didn't like that he had a "pressure but no lynch" opinion on lurkers at first, but then switched his vote to Virtu for his period of inactivity, despite many ok Virtu posts before. "Flexible in opinion" is how I'd describe Seviro, and that's not a compliment...
This is what I meant by pressure but not necessarly lynch, I put my vote on him and then he came and posted his thought so I switched back. This is what I call pressure play.
He discusses the virtu vote as “pressure”. A vote with nothing behind it, with no case, nothing. He doesn't at all revisit his Artanis vote here.
His most recent posts finally address the Artanis vote, his reasoning is ABSURD:
On March 25 2012 22:54 Artanis[Xp] wrote: .He also used a chainsaw argument against me after I accused him, voting me for little reason seemingly only because I voted on him and some minor suspicions. Regardless of alignment, that's bad.
I don't think it was a "chainsaw argument" as you say because I did defend myself. I just thought "ok, he took all my post out of context so let's do the same thing with him". I know that was a bad play, but your accusations were meaningless so I just kind of did the same.
Now i'm gonna go read some filter and I'll post some of my thought after, especially Mementoss, a lot of people seem to think that he his almost confirmed town and given last game scenario, I don't like that. So brb in some hours.
He says it wasn't a chainsaw defense, but then pretty much describes a chainsaw defense. We have all been discussing the initial Seviro/Artanis issue, I think Seviro would rather see it buried.
Initial Day 2 Thoughts At the end of day1, I reread the argument between Seviro and Artanis. While I was pretty sure Artanis was scum, I thought Seviro's reponse was absurd. I came to the conclusion that one of these two were most likely scum... Since Artanis is now mostly-confirmed, the attack on Seviro gained another look.
He is suggesting a policy lynch based on not voting within an 8 hour deadline. The reason policy lynches are bad is because it removes analysis and focuses only on the policy. This one specifically means someone would be a lynch target simply for voting 4 hours from the deadline rather than 8. If you get scum to meet the deadline, the scum get a free town kill.
It doesn't mean it at all, let's say a 8 or even a 6 hour dealine, you had 40-42 to come up with a vote at this point in the day you should have your opinion anyway. It is in no way final but this way we can have an organized town and we have actually enough time to discuss each vote.
FOUR minutes later he states a willingness to go after Fenix...
After the Fenix train picks up some steam, he totally forgets about Artanis.
What are you talking about?. Literally all the EFFING day I've been DEFENDING Fenix in hope that he would come up with something useful, which didn'T happen.
Then he changes OFF Artanis and... onto Virtu, for not being active enough. His acusations are extremely fickle. He ends the day by jumping on the same train as everyone, Fenix.
Virtu had promised us a post which was not there at the time, after he did post I switch my vote onto Fenix since his post were making less and less sense.
It was more or less expected that we'd get a bad townie on day 1. I thought it was pretty clear he was bad town rather than mafia, but just a really bad town who couldn't even vote in the right format last minute that would have saved him.
You must be scum right? Just because I think something and it come down that I was right it doesn't mean anything.
He says it wasn't a chainsaw defense, but then pretty much describes a chainsaw defense. We have all been discussing the initial Seviro/Artanis issue, I think Seviro would rather see it buried.
On March 26 2012 16:04 Seviro wrote: Inb4 OMG he said he was going to bed last post and he didn'T, SCUMSCUMSCUM, by heading to bed I meant getting of the computer and doing something else before actually going to bed. I planned to take a look at the thread just before sleeping but there was 2 post adressed to me so I responded to them while they were of actuality.
On March 26 2012 14:34 michaelthe wrote: Re Seviro Attack You make two points about my ultimatum: 1) 3 out of the 4 people I posted as lurkers are now dead townies. 2) I didn't vote until 23 hours after my 8 hour ultimatum.
Reponses: 1) two are dead because they are bad townines. This is the reason they were on the inactive list, this is the reason they were selected to die. The reason they are dead and on the list of inactives has the same root, this in no way makes their deaths have a causal relationship to my list. This should be completely easy to see by anyone. 2) My ultimatum was an attempt to force lurkers to post. All of them actually posted. Fenix spammed useless content, one said “I'm awake”, one said “Im drunk”. No one strictly failed, it was only mildly successful at making people post.
On Artanis, you make two points: 1) I targest Artanis after we had two good targets to lynch 2) I was the second vote for Artanis, not the first
I refute both of these points with one simple point: Artanis' slip was a major one. Artanis himself said so. Every Mafia guide says so. It ended up being a complete accident, but there was no way to tell this at the time. At the time, this was one of the strongest pieces of objective information we had.
Your claims are terrible, they have no weight, I find them very artificial. There are a few people who have said “oops, that does look scummy”, but I have not with the above. My responses are simple, and straightforward to your meritless claims. I think you are artificially trying to make a case.
About the 3 out of 4 thingie, of course this was purely WIFOM but I thought it was worth mentioning.
On March 23 2012 06:16 michaelthe wrote: ULTIMATUM: Post something of value within 8 hours or you are getting my vote!
So you are basically saying that "i'm drunk" and "i'm awake" are valuable for the town right?
And for the "Feudian slip" as you like to call it I did bring it up because of the way you brought it back. You basically said everything Mementoss had already say in his post about it, but you write it in a way that make it look like you were the one to find it.
And also, I forgot to mention that your answer about froggy's post that was asking you to give content was:
On March 23 2012 15:23 michaelthe wrote: On Froggy
You came out VERY defensive. I called for lurkers to post, and they did... But hey, that's not my strategy!:
On March 23 2012 04:54 froggynoddy wrote: The decision to lynch should therefore be based on 1. information (gathered by pressuring, amongst other ways) 2. Correct analysis. But without 1. we shall never be able to do 2. And therefore any decisions to lynch will be less strong.
Your turn Euro's. See you in the morning.
You didn'T adress any of his claim.
And on my point being weak, weightless and artificial I don't know if you saw my answer about your case on me, I countered every single point of yours without even trying and I did not say anything about your point being weak and weightless because it is useless to discredit other post the way you do it.
So if you could stop with your arrogant attitude of "I'm right and I'm good, you're wrong and you suck" that would be beneficial for the town.
1. These 2 were a lot of people’s first 2 suspects. Pointing out that they were mementoss’s as well is not worth it.
2. He pointed out the lurking of people who had been pointed out by Gossemer and Ninja4ever, which makes him the first to make these cases? Contradiction, anyone?
There is a difference between pointing out something and making a case on it.
Anyway the goal of the small case on Mem was only to show that we need to not put him in the "almost confirmed townie" yet since on day 1 some people seemed to believe he was the most townie of us, which he may be but it is not a reason to not suspect him and to let him slip by.
On March 23 2012 06:07 Seviro wrote: And about Rise, posting your thought about 1 hour before the deadline is possibly the more scummy thing you could do as the deadline is relatively late and a lot of people are not around at the time. Voting at this time is basically a ninja vote and it is not right to do so since, as Nova said we wouldn't have enough time to discuss about it and change our vote if need be.
When you go through my filter, at least do it right :
On March 24 2012 03:14 Seviro wrote: Oh, I really just think now that Fenix is playing poorly or just doesn't care enough to put enough time on the game. But I'll give him the chance to step up his play because I really think he is town.
I think that if he was mafia, his fellow scum would have helped him in the background so that he don't look so suspicious. For now I think he is just bad and as I said, i'm willing to give him a chance to step up his play. I shouldn't have said that I think that he is really town, more like I don't see him being more scummy than anyone else right now.
On March 24 2012 05:10 Seviro wrote: Yeah I know, I just feel like it's too obvious to be true. I might be wrong tho.
that is 3 more post where I defend him so if you claim something, don't only 1/4 post on it to make me look bad.
And I did mention this defense twice because 2 people said that I jumped on the ROS train right away, which is false.
Seriously, I don'T know if my english is so bad or you just can't read but i'm getting tired of repeating myself over and over again.
Now I'm really going to bed.
The endless irritation and defense doesn’t stop. Particularly here: + Show Spoiler +
On March 26 2012 16:04 Seviro wrote: Inb4 OMG he said he was going to bed last post and he didn'T, SCUMSCUMSCUM, by heading to bed I meant getting of the computer and doing something else before actually going to bed. I planned to take a look at the thread just before sleeping but there was 2 post adressed to me so I responded to them while they were of actuality.
In the post he says that the other person is understanding badly, makes this Inb4 crap, says that themichael is arrogant etc and has a certain attitude (not saying themichael isn’t scummy, hope to post my thoughts on him relatively soon after this case) but its just rude, and seems OMGUS himself.
That’s my analysis on seviro. ##Vote: Seviro I wish I could have analyzed a bit more, but I can see that I am running short on time and for times sake I’ll put this out as early as possible.
I feel like IF they were scum buddies they would want to bring someone else into the mix, not heat up the cases between themselves - which would lead to them both possibly getting lynched. However, both of them do bring up michaelthe at separate times. Not really sure what to make of this, as I can't get a read of michael right now anyways. Anyhow, I don't really agree with Mem that is Seviro flips scum then that makes Nova suspicious. Right now Nova is suspicious to me based on his own merit.
On the above @Goss I think it was apparant early in the day the votes were at 2-2, that it was most likely going to be a battle between them two on who gets lynched today. They both actually waited fairly late before putting a case on each other. Seviro posted a case analysis on me and Michael before moving to Nova. I think it was a last ditch effort either that makes them look good if one survives and the other flips scum. Or is just a last ditch town effort to know they won't convince a case of anyone else for a majority swing, so their best chance of survival is to pursway the last voters to switch over.
Right now I am probably going to switch my vote to Seviro, just waiting to see what happens. Nova seems to be trying to bring new information to the table, which I like. Seviro not so much, but this could be due to having to defend himself for a while. BUT, I just don't like how Seviro reacts to everyone who makes a case against him. He immediately switches the pressure to the person with the case against him and even votes for said person (Artanis then Nova if I remember correctly) which is really scummy to me.
I agree it seems like a last ditch effort by both. I can't tell if its a town or sum effort though. In our last game these too did the same exact thing. -___-
I feel like that at least one is mafia, otherwise the town would be a lot less active. As the scum could lurk and not argue anything. I could be wrong though.
On March 27 2012 04:57 Nova_Terra wrote: Just want to make a brief analysis on Michaelthe.
in early game, he played aggressively to start out which i liked. however, since then, the quality of play has gone down substantially. i just took a foray into his filter. I definitely think he goes a bit overboard on his ultimatum (which he didnt follow?) and the artanis slip thing. i can see the point of both, but he went a bit too off. He had some wishy-washyness to his vote patterns, which can be explained a bit by avoiding no lynch, but it became apparent to me that ALL 3 of the people he switched between were/are town (as i think artanis is certain at this point). he jumped happily on every little mistake that has arisen throughout the game (refered to in some guide as cherry picking town mistakes i think). After last game, i actually gave up on my "discrediting tell" philosophy, where if you call some analysis/case bad, it is often a scum move because cases which have a bad reaction to them are not thought of and taken as serious as one without any opinions on it so far. upon reading his filter, what i classified as aggressiveness in playstyle went right into discrediting and being just plain rude. He frequently has been calling points terrible and weak, even refusing to respond to a so called "weak case" made by seviro i believe. entirely wrong attitude. it also seems likes hes going heavy into gossemerr without much behind it. not so sure why. I think gossemerr is leaning town, and in general his play has been helpful. anyway, if seviro wasnt more suspicious at this point in time, i would be putting down michaelthe for this lynch (unless something else big came up). its likely that my vote tomorrow will be on michaelthe bar some other case developing.
Please be a replacement for virtu if nothng else. A modkill would really kill us i should think.
Wait what? He currently has zero votes and with 7 hours to go I highly doubt you could get enough votes on him still. This lynch is pretty much between you and seviro right now, we need to lynch a mafia. today. or we'll be wasting a day. The fact that you want to lynch Michaelthe instead is suspicious to me. You should know that with 7 hours to go the chance of someone going from 0 to 5 votes is fairly unlikely.
Nono, i think you missed the last part of my post, seviro is more susp at this time, just letting you guys know where i stand for both if i live longer or if i die.
Gossemerr i brought up michael and yourself as a result of both artanis' suspicions and my own, at least against michael. how much of a joke would this be if we were both town, we could be the very definition of screwed. still like 80% sure hes scum though.
Ok guys, I think I won't be able to post much before the deadline, I have some issue that I need to take care of.
Let's hope that Virtu will actually come and vote so that he don't get modkilled or at least let's hope he'S scum if he does get modkilled.
Now, since the vote is actually 4/4 and a no lynch right now would be pretty bad I'll put a vote on myself so at least we get a lynch.
If we do get another day after this I hope it will be enough to find every single scum because now I think at this point there is nothing I can do to prove my innocence so even if I survive another day i'll most likely be lynched tomorrow.if I die you'll see that I was not lying when I flip town.
That said if Virtu is indeed a town and get modkilled then GG scum, another flawless victory.
Here are a couple reasons why I'm switching my vote:
1. Just looking at the people voting Nova_Terra, I trust them a lot less than the people voting Seviro.
Nova_Terra voters: Seviro - No trust, Gossemer - semi trust, ninja4ever - No trust
Seviro voters: Nova_terra - No trust, Artanis - almost complete trust, blueyD semi trust, Michael - Null.
2. Nova_Terra was the first person to defend Artanis, now the closest to confirmed town we have.
On March 24 2012 02:20 Nova_Terra wrote: The gist of it: Ok, fair enough. I just feel that Seviro is in a position where myself or a few other posters here could be in. I feel a bit weird about that o.o nice catch on that slip, but seeing as this IS a newbie game, it isnt very telling. at all. I hate that it works that way, but yeah, i should think that scum slips (even if they are from townies) will happen relatively often. Anyways, as a general note to everybody, please dont make assumptions like this (even if they are about me.) i would prefer us to be looking at all the options than i would have us assuming peoples roles, at least in our minds. Artanis, can you tell me your thoughts on Rise of Fenix? if it came down between him and a lurker, who would you rather lynch and why?
It was quick and reactionary, and wasn't a bandwagon opinion.
3. Nova's defense was bad yes, but so was Seviros. I feel Seviro has been just replying to anything even mentioning him from day 1, and responding in an aggressive tone.
4. Nova's reponse when time is running out/desparation. - Is posting analyses on people who were considered suspicious. Seems like he is genuinely worried for the towns well being after hes gone. As shown above.
5.Seviro is the safer lynch, if he flips town I think it gives us more of a direction on certain people he interacted with.
This is the hardest choice I've had in this game by far, I hope it turns out for the best. I would like people to take the discussion from the scummy traits to why you think who you are voting for is the better candidate of the two. This could bring in some new good points I didn't think of. Please give me your opinion on this, I will be back in 2 hours, and am willing to re-look at the evidence and change my vote back.
He was already on my short list of potential suspects. I think the initial case against his meta shift was okay, but pretty much confirmed by his reponse and ppl from last game, in addition to analysis of his posts this game and weak defense.
I would also hope we get 6 votes on him rather than 5. Why? Mafia benefit from a no lynch, as the same targets would remain with no new info. A mafia could quick switch from one target to make this happen, maybe even Nova voting for himself.
After seeing Seviro vpte himself, the other option is that both of the two targets tonight are red. Seviro and Nova could be planning to swap votes last second in order to score the no lynch. They could both argue this is better for them, since they both suggest self preservation as the motive. (Although this may be weaker since I am posting this).
Nova has been posting some random analysis in the past few hours. This could be a last ditch effort to prove useful, or he could also be doing this to try and get me hit tomorrow in the day lynch if Seviro comes up green and is killed tonight. If we killed seviro, and he flipped green, we would have two suspects, Nova and Me. Nova would obviously go for me.
Again, I think we need 6 votes, if not 7, depending on which scinario we have (and who the third mafia is).
I think its clear that either one or both of the targets are red, otherwise they would just lurk. We have to kill one with a large margin though, as the no-lynch is a big thing we need to be careful of. Read my above post, I think Nova is the target for tonight.
On March 27 2012 06:33 michaelthe wrote: This is turning into a clusterF*** tonight.
I think its clear that either one or both of the targets are red, otherwise they would just lurk. We have to kill one with a large margin though, as the no-lynch is a big thing we need to be careful of. Read my above post, I think Nova is the target for tonight.
Why would a townie that is up for the chopping block just lurk? I would definitely not be lurking in their shoes, as that would look HELLA scummy. You sir, are becoming more and more suspicious in my book.
On March 27 2012 06:29 michaelthe wrote: I am changing my vote to Nova.
He was already on my short list of potential suspects. I think the initial case against his meta shift was okay, but pretty much confirmed by his reponse and ppl from last game, in addition to analysis of his posts this game and weak defense.
I would also hope we get 6 votes on him rather than 5. Why? Mafia benefit from a no lynch, as the same targets would remain with no new info. A mafia could quick switch from one target to make this happen, maybe even Nova voting for himself.
After seeing Seviro vpte himself, the other option is that both of the two targets tonight are red. Seviro and Nova could be planning to swap votes last second in order to score the no lynch. They could both argue this is better for them, since they both suggest self preservation as the motive. (Although this may be weaker since I am posting this).
Nova has been posting some random analysis in the past few hours. This could be a last ditch effort to prove useful, or he could also be doing this to try and get me hit tomorrow in the day lynch if Seviro comes up green and is killed tonight. If we killed seviro, and he flipped green, we would have two suspects, Nova and Me. Nova would obviously go for me.
Again, I think we need 6 votes, if not 7, depending on which scinario we have (and who the third mafia is).
##Vote: Nova_Terra
No, no, no, no nonono im not falling for this, you're trying to make mementoss not suspect you if seviro is green and of course if sev was green its me and you and of course i would try to get you killed. but i would already if not seviro... and why did he have to self vote
On March 27 2012 06:33 michaelthe wrote: This is turning into a clusterF*** tonight.
I think its clear that either one or both of the targets are red, otherwise they would just lurk. We have to kill one with a large margin though, as the no-lynch is a big thing we need to be careful of. Read my above post, I think Nova is the target for tonight.
Why would a townie that is up for the chopping block just lurk? I would definitely not be lurking in their shoes, as that would look HELLA scummy. You sir, are becoming more and more suspicious in my book.
I mean if we had 2 townies on the chopping block the mafia would just lurk. Not the townies lurk...
Instead we have a lot of activity, so at least one, if not both, are prolly scum
I don't know if we can see Seviro's voting on himself as town-favored, actually. We've already agreed that it's critical we lynch a mafia tonight, so if he's town the good move is certainly not to vote for his own lynching, especially since his take on Nova (our other target) is 'slightly leaning scum'. I would rather have seen a defense than this, or a "yeah, I haven't been great, but Nova is worse, lynch him and give me another chance".
I still stand by my idea that both might be red, and they're playing against each other so that the survivor won't be suspicious, given that it seems obvious one of the two is about to get lynched.
------
I want to draw attention to michaelthe's voteswitch. Vote count at the moment of his switch:
And then he switches to Nova, saying we need 6 votes on a guy - but we do before he switches, and not after! He argues that mafia benefits from a no-lynch, but he's actually getting us closer to that himself. Now Seviro just has to switch back at the last minute and we have a no-lynch... So we have here a nice case of "actions go left, words go right" by michaelthe.
And then he switches to Nova, saying we need 6 votes on a guy - but we do before he switches, and not after! He argues that mafia benefits from a no-lynch, but he's actually getting us closer to that himself. Now Seviro just has to switch back at the last minute and we have a no-lynch... So we have here a nice case of "actions go left, words go right" by michaelthe.
IF they are both red, 2 of the votes on Seviro are now mafia on the chopping block. Both could swap, saving atleast 1 mafia for another night. We would have 4 votes on Seviro after they both swap. Seviro would even claim self preservation.
Thats the best explination for Seviro's swap to self.
I will state that I will be until deadline again, and swap if needed, but we would need A LOT of people to do that tonight if we have 2 mafia on the chopblock.
Sure, michaelthe, we can decide we're not counting the 2 guys we suspect as mafia. Then the vote count was 4-2 and it's now 3-3. We're still farther away from a lynch than we were before.
We need to make sure we get one of them guys. Since Seviro is my main suspect, I'm asking all townies to put their votes on Seviro. Right or wrong, you can at least be sure I'm not scum. This way the vote won't be influenced by scum.
On March 27 2012 07:13 BlueyD wrote: Sure, michaelthe, we can decide we're not counting the 2 guys we suspect as mafia. Then the vote count was 4-2 and it's now 3-3. We're still farther away from a lynch than we were before.
Look at who we have active as well:
Mementoss, Artanis, You, Seviro, Nova.
We can get the guaranteed kill on Nova easily. Goss and Ninja are both afk.
before i do something that i will regret because im to tired to think right im going to bed. leaving vote on sev.sure about michael being scum cause of this at least. sevrio and michael in a team or just michael tryint to solo this, has to be mafia.
Wow, loooot of things hapenning here it seems. I had exams to work on for tommorow, which explain why I was inactive (for those not believing me, you can check here http://edt.bde.assos.efrei.fr/?s=13&d=-1&p=3 I'm in L3 and on tuesday I have a "CE" which means exam in french) Reading everything atm, looks like it basically is seviro vs nova as I suspected.
omfg, michael that was the stupidest move ever if you are town. Seriously, there is no town logic behind it. I thought of what you said too, that last minute mafia could vote switch for the no lynch due to us not having virtu, but guess what. It would be fucking stupid because it would bring all eyes on them and we could connect the dotes and kill there whole team in a couple swipes. As of now switching your vote makes a no-lynch more likely so you completely contradicted yourself. I am so confused right now, GJ mafia your doing your job.
Alright, michael is now officially looking scum for me. However, if michael is scum, why would Seviro as scum put a case against him? So this makes Seviro look less scummy. But why would Michael vote Nova if Nova is scum? It looks like he's trying to create confusion and get a no-lynch, directly after I changed my vote to Seviro. Note he waits till after I do this to say anything. It seems like 2/3 of these guys are scum. Why would he go for the majority on Nova if nova was scum, it would be so hard to get a majority lynch... If he got a no-lynch it would save a scum, if not, he could say he voted a scum off, making him innocent. So a safe bet? Last minute bus?
Seviro's vote switch is really odd. But it isn't influenced by my vote switch as we both posted at the same time. Why would Seviro vote himself?
As mafia, trying to add confusion and get a no-lynch, would only want a no-lynch if both him and Nova were mafia, as it coulda went either way. As town, he actually was looking out for the best of the towns interests and doesn't want a no-lynch to go through. Realizes this lynch will bring important information to the table.
If 2/3 of these guys are mafia, what is the most likely mafia duo? Michael/Nova -> Most Likely Nova/Seviro Seviro/Michael -> Least Likely
IMO.
Keep the discussion up we need a solid choice. Artanis don't just shift to Seviro, we have enough activity that we can discuss this legit.
Thank god for a non-mod kill on virtu. Seviro is the easy lynch right now, but is that what we want? If its easy it probably has two mafia supporting it. And if mafia is supporting it, we either caught nova and seviro as scum bed buddies and there bussing, or they are just playing that we are too inactive to get a vote switch. If we try really hard/have the activity we could lynch off Nova's or Michaels ass.
On March 27 2012 08:10 Mementoss wrote: Thank god for a non-mod kill on virtu. Seviro is the easy lynch right now, but is that what we want? If its easy it probably has two mafia supporting it. And if mafia is supporting it, we either caught nova and seviro as scum bed buddies and there bussing, or they are just playing that we are too inactive to get a vote switch. If we try really hard/have the activity we could lynch off Nova's or Michaels ass.
Or perhaps that's just exactly what Mafia wants us to think because they realize it's the only chance to save Seviro at this point. Too much WIFOM, and you're questioning it to the point that I'm starting to question your legitimacy.
There's just been too many mafia tricks this day. They're definitely doing a good job throwing us off. The only reason I can imagine for this is because there's a mafia on the chopping block. Seviro was the likely candidate to get lynched and him voting for himself makes more sense for scum then town, since it's basically just another trick in the book. Tricks are things mafia uses a lot more often than town. Too many attempts at confusion lead me to believe we've got the right target.
On March 27 2012 08:10 Mementoss wrote: Thank god for a non-mod kill on virtu. Seviro is the easy lynch right now, but is that what we want? If its easy it probably has two mafia supporting it. And if mafia is supporting it, we either caught nova and seviro as scum bed buddies and there bussing, or they are just playing that we are too inactive to get a vote switch. If we try really hard/have the activity we could lynch off Nova's or Michaels ass.
Or perhaps that's just exactly what Mafia wants us to think because they realize it's the only chance to save Seviro at this point. Too much WIFOM, and you're questioning it to the point that I'm starting to question your legitimacy.
Artanis I am just really confused by Michaels play, he can't be town. How can anyone be that terrible? My last two posts were a reaction to me just getting back and reading this garbage, unproductive mafia propghanda confusion. Right now you are the only person I trust in the game. I would like discussion on this recent matter cause I want to pressure this ridiculousness. But in the end I think either Nova or Seviro would be a good lynch at least for information, and if we are lucky. They are both scum. In the end I'm gunna leave the call to you, because a no lynch is unacceptable. I will vote the way you think the majority vote, should and is most likely to go.
On March 27 2012 08:17 Artanis[Xp] wrote: There's just been too many mafia tricks this day. They're definitely doing a good job throwing us off. The only reason I can imagine for this is because there's a mafia on the chopping block. Seviro was the likely candidate to get lynched and him voting for himself makes more sense for scum then town, since it's basically just another trick in the book. Tricks are things mafia uses a lot more often than town. Too many attempts at confusion lead me to believe we've got the right target.
You make a good point. Lets be confident in our analysis and go from there after the flip.
That being said, we would sit a lot more comfortable if Goss would switch his vote. Also, since ninja4ever is reading the thread and catching up I would like to hear from him/ have him switch his vote. For ensured majority. I will be staying up until the flip, too curious.
On March 27 2012 08:04 Mementoss wrote: omfg, michael that was the stupidest move ever if you are town. Seriously, there is no town logic behind it. I thought of what you said too, that last minute mafia could vote switch for the no lynch due to us not having virtu, but guess what. It would be fucking stupid because it would bring all eyes on them and we could connect the dotes and kill there whole team in a couple swipes. As of now switching your vote makes a no-lynch more likely so you completely contradicted yourself. I am so confused right now, GJ mafia your doing your job.
Alright, michael is now officially looking scum for me.
This really confuses me and makes me suspect you might be scum. Michael's post looks so much more like ignorance than deception; he clearly just didn't think it through properly, and it's a lot more likely now that he's just a confused townie rather than mafia. Given how you're clearly not a dumb player, a very rational explanation to this would be willful ignorance. Putting another suspect on the list is always a good thing for Mafia, so there's plenty of reason for it. I won't exclude the possibility that this was just a lapse of judgement though. It's just extremely clear to me that Michael is just a confused townie.
I am back, we now have a guaranteed kill on Seviro.
Re: Mementoss The most likely case is that Seviro and Nova are both scum. This is the only reason Seviro's self vote makes sense. The only way to get a guaranteed kill tonight is to have either Ninja or Goss or Virtu be here. We now have two of them. The only supermajority before would have been achievable on Nova.
It would be pretty easy to achieve a no lynch tonight if we didn't have this supermajority. If I were scum, I wouldnt have posted that strategy and my scum buddy would swap last minute for a no lynch, citing self preservation.
Should we have Seviro flip tonight, and Nova tomorrow, that leaves one to find.
I decided to simply ignore Seviro self vote, it can equally mean he's a townie trying to prove he'll do anything for town or a scum that wants us to think that. Well, putting more thought into that, it's an interesting move. Look at what happened earlier : Seviro is suspected. He seems to be a rather agressive player, and answer with his read on everyone. One could expect he would totally go all out on the most suspicious person of the moment : Nova. So what does he say about him ?
Nova_TerraDon't know at all, I'd say slightly leaning scum mostly because of the meta difference from last game as stated by Mementoss. That doesn'T mean much since it was his first game but I feel that his defense have been pointlessly long. He is helping the discussion by asking question which is good but he seems scared when it is his turn to answer which is a scum behaviour, if you have nothing to hide you shouldn't be scared
This is weird to me. It looks like he's trying to avoid giving his opinion on Nova (slightly scum ? Remember that this is just after Nova's very weak defense), and prefer to go on the kinda weak michael case. Why would he avoid pointing his finger on Nova ? Well, I feel that :
if seviro is townie, he'd jump on Nova's neck asap if seviro is mafia and therefore know Nova is townie, he'd jump on that very suspicious case BUT if they're both mafia, it makes sense that seviro is trying to avoid as much contact with nova.
What kinda annoys me in this is the fact that nova didn't hesitate one second to say " I'll speak on saviro later " during his defense. May be they just didn't communicated before hand ? Seems kinda unlikely. May be nova wants to give seviro credit when he's lynched, seeing how strong his case was ? May be once again, but this become too WIFOM to be of any real interest.
What's happening now ? Seviro self vote. What's interesting is that it happens just after mementoss said something among the lines " well they might bu just 2 mafia busing each other " and here we go : not busing anymore.
All in all, it makes sense that they would be two mafias, which might be too good to be true. I'll personally go for seviro for two reasons : firstly he's the one with the most vote at the moment and I absolutly want a lynch. Secondly, there's basically two leaders here : mementoss and artanis. Artanis, the greenest of all people, say go for seviro. Then mementoss comes and tries basically a kinda last second and very slightly suspect switch. I trust artanis more, so I'll go with his plan, even though I think both are scum really. (nova and seviro huh ? not artanis and mementoss)
Yeah I kinda freaked out, in a moment where I was just mad when I seen what was happening. It was most likely it was a lapse of bad judgement by michael and I overreacted. I was looking far too into WIFOM at the end because I was so close in between who I wanted Nova or Seviro, it ended up confusing me even more.
On top of that I looked like an idiot, cause instead of straight analysis I have been doing I was doing more of what if's piled on top of what if's with crazy master plans. I will go back to what works, good plain old logic. Depending on the flip/if we get a replacement will decide how our night discussion goes. I'm done posting in this game for tonight, I will come back to check the flip.
OK, I don'T have much time before my lynch so I'll try to make it fast and clear. Maybe you'll give more credit to what say when you'll stop assuming i'm scum.
I'll give you my present thought on the mafia team since it is the last time I can make any claim.
First thing first, based on the recents post, i'm less and less sure that Nova is a scum. The main point against him is his meta shift from last game which don'T say much since it was his first game and in the everyone was thinking he was a scum because of his play style. I'll say there's 60% chance of him flipping scum.
My main suspect at 95% sure in my opinion is, as you may know, Micaelthe. I said about all I had to say about him but i'll talk about his vote switch. He switched his vote now when it was clear for everyone that I was being lynched. I think that since my death can tell a lot about him (see Mementoss post about it), it was best for him to kill nova since his death doesn't tell anything about him. Also, he add that he'd want at least 6 vote so that scum don'T ninja switch and cancel the lynch which doesn'T make sense since there was 6 vote on me at the time. And for those who think that he wouldn't have made a case on me if he was scum, a lot of people were already suspicious about me so he just tried to get the train rolling (in which he succeeded).
My second suspect which I am 80% sure is BlueyD. As Nova mentionned, after a good start of trying to get discussion roll, he kinda fell out of sight and didn't add anything useful. He did follow the bandwagon on me and nova, adding that I was taking credit for something that I didn'T did, which I refuted by adding the 3 post where I was actually doing what I was claiming. Post at which he answered by:
Oh, I really just think now that Fenix is playing poorly or just doesn't care enough to put enough time on the game. But I'll give him the chance to step up his play because I really think he is town.
I think that if he was mafia, his fellow scum would have helped him in the background so that he don't look so suspicious. For now I think he is just bad and as I said, i'm willing to give him a chance to step up his play. I shouldn't have said that I think that he is really town, more like I don't see him being more scummy than anyone else right now.
Yeah I know, I just feel like it's too obvious to be true. I might be wrong tho.
Okay, so he plays poorly, looks suspicious, and feels like obvious scum to you. Great defense! It doesn't feel like you're defending him at all to me, since you bring up something I can bold in every single post. I'm not at 1/1 or at 1/4 now, I'm at 4/4.
Truth is when someone looks this bad, we lynch him to know what he is. That's how the game is played. He was a decent lynch target from the start and the only defense you could have brought out was "someone else looks even worse", as I did.
Never try to defend me, by the way.
Post at which I didn't respond since I though it was obviously fake fact but some people seemed to agree with it so here is some clarification.
Oh, I really just think now that Fenix is playing poorly or just doesn't care enough to put enough time on the game. But I'll give him the chance to step up his play because I really think he is town.
I think that if he was mafia, his fellow scum would have helped him in the background so that he don't look so suspicious. For now I think he is just bad and as I said, i'm willing to give him a chance to step up his play. I shouldn't have said that I think that he is really town, more like I don't see him being more scummy than anyone else right now.
Yeah I know, I just feel like it's too obvious to be true. I might be wrong tho.
See, when we bold what actually matters it takes another sense. But I don'T blame you, it was a trend in this game to take my word out of context and ignoring important part of my posts.
Now for the third, I think he is among Virtu or Ninja4ever. I don'T have anything to back my claim but I feel like they are lurking too easily.
By the way mafia, you did a great job of making me feel scummy, so great job in fact that the vote is unanimous so good job on that.
With that said, don't take what I said here for the truth but please investigate enough to make yourself an opinion. with 3 scum and 4 townie left after the night, the bandwagon can easily go in a wrong way.
I put my fate into your hand Town Fellow. Avenge my death and win this for me please.
Cheers, Good luck Good game, I follow this closely and I hope my death won't be in vain.
I don'T think I'll post again so peace out, love you all :D (except scum team obiously).
EBWOP: Don'T argue over it, it is not worth it, concentrate your thought on who actually look scummy and please take into consideration everything I said since Day 1.
Actually, scratch that. We'll do it if there's enough people here. Report in if you're willing to change for Michaelthe just so we don't lose a majority lynch. ##unvote: Michaelthe ##vote: Seviro
The field was narrowing for the ChronoCorp lab crew. The confirmed status of 3 of their number gave everyone a new perspective from which to look at the information they had gained in their interviews. Armed with this new insight, the town confidently chose two possible candidates, Nova_Terra and Seviro.
Both were given the chance to clear the air and defend themselves. At the end of the day the voting was unanimous, Seviro would have to die. The crew knew they had got it right this time, they were well on their way to avoiding the end of the universe via crashing into the beginning of time. Already here and there a smile could be seen, a congratulatory pat on the back. Finally, in this moment of anticipation, the paranoia that had gripped the crew for so long eased just a bit.
Seviro knew struggling would be futile and allowed himself to be led to the makeshift gallows. He held his head high, even as the cable noose was placed around his neck. His eyes held only contempt for those in front of him and he spoke not a word as he was pulled into the air. Even up to the moment he went limp, Seviro stared back at his accusers and spoke not a word.
It is now Night 2. Day 3 will start in approximately 24 hours. Please PM any night actions to BOTH GMarshal and myself. The deadline for night actions is 03:00 GMT (+00:00). Any actions PMed after that deadline will be ignored even if the day post is not yet up.
Alright, let's follow Seviro's guidance. At this point we've lost too many townies to second guess the people that count. I'd be highly surprised if I didn't die at night, like highly highly surprised since I'm basically guaranteed to be town. We can't be sure, but we should follow Seviro's list and start with Michaelthe. BlueyD I'm less convinced by and given the massive activity I'd also like to take a closer look at Nova_Terra. I don't think Virtu is mafia simply based on him still voting despite having family issues, which I just see as more of a town act as Mafia wouldn't have the need to vote that badly, though this is slightly WIFOM. BlueyD and Ninja4ever need to be examined closer.
Almost sure town: Mementoss Pretty sure town: Gossemerr, virtu 50/50: BlueyD, Ninja4ever Leaning scum: Nova_Terra Almost sure scum: Michaelthe That's how I view it at this point. And now I'm going to need to catch some sleep.
I need to post something before I go away for a while, as it REALLY bothers me:
Mementoss, the apparently super green townie
On March 26 2012 21:38 Mementoss wrote: If we lynch Seviro and Seviro flips town, Michael would be highly suspicious and so would Nova Terra. If we lynch Seviro and Seviro flips scum, Michael would be off my radar, and Nova would still remain suspicious.
Mementoss did this EXACT SAME thing last game. For those of you whom didn't read it: He was a scum that game, and he basically said this "either Seviro (who was also in that game, was town) or Gossemerr (me, was also town) are scum, but NOT both." Basically it meant that if we followed his logic then we would lose two townies. It so happened that we lynched Seviro and the game ended because of mod kills, but you all should get my point. I don't like this shit. Its like adding connections where they should not be, in order to influence votes. Here look at this earlier quote:
On March 22 2012 23:38 Mementoss wrote: Another thing I learned from last game and I think Nova_Terra will agree with me is, making connections (or anti-connections) between players is absolutely useless until the town flips its first scum. Keep track of it for all means, just no need to post it until scum is flipped and it can be used with case analysis (can't stand alone as a case). Cause you can literally find these connections between most players, its just the nature of the game, and the town trying to work as a team.
He clearly states that we should not be adding connections above, very clearly actually. Also he did this same thing last game at the same time, when the next day would be a lynch or lose situation. If we lynch wrong D3 we lose already, unless there are more blues (but I don't think so as there was only one last game). notice how, Seviro flipped town.. If he is scum, this would be another smart play to make sure the game is won. All of us remaining town really need to read and analyze tonight. If you are scared to post because you might be murdered, just post with like <5 minutes left or whatever before the night post (I will probably do the same in case I die tomorrow as well).
On March 26 2012 21:38 Mementoss wrote: If we lynch Seviro and Seviro flips town, Michael would be highly suspicious and so would Nova Terra. If we lynch Seviro and Seviro flips scum, Michael would be off my radar, and Nova would still remain suspicious.
Mementoss did this EXACT SAME thing last game. For those of you whom didn't read it: He was a scum that game, and he basically said this "either Seviro (who was also in that game, was town) or Gossemerr (me, was also town) are scum, but NOT both." Basically it meant that if we followed his logic then we would lose two townies. It so happened that we lynched Seviro and the game ended because of mod kills, but you all should get my point. I don't like this shit. Its like adding connections where they should not be, in order to influence votes. Here look at this earlier quote:
On March 22 2012 23:38 Mementoss wrote: Another thing I learned from last game and I think Nova_Terra will agree with me is, making connections (or anti-connections) between players is absolutely useless until the town flips its first scum. Keep track of it for all means, just no need to post it until scum is flipped and it can be used with case analysis (can't stand alone as a case). Cause you can literally find these connections between most players, its just the nature of the game, and the town trying to work as a team.
He clearly states that we should not be adding connections above, very clearly actually. Also he did this same thing last game at the same time, when the next day would be a lynch or lose situation. If we lynch wrong D3 we lose already, unless there are more blues (but I don't think so as there was only one last game). notice how, Seviro flipped town.. If he is scum, this would be another smart play to make sure the game is won. All of us remaining town really need to read and analyze tonight. If you are scared to post because you might be murdered, just post with like <5 minutes left or whatever before the night post (I will probably do the same in case I die tomorrow as well).
##FoS: Mementoss
I'm town. Right now my opinion is that I could be off that they were one of them were scum. But I had more of a feeling Nova was scum than Seviro, but with Artanis (one of the most influencal players) keeping his Seviro vote, Seviro actually voting himself and running off, and virtu a player who would not be posting all voted Seviro.
Seviro voting himself as town was a really stupid move. It basically made it impossible to get a majority on Nova if we wanted it. He made it seem as he wasn't going to post before nights end then made a good post before he died. -_-. If Nova was scum, with 3 mafia in play, Seviro, +3 mafia, + virtu. Made a majority for him almost no matter what.
How is the above a connection? I did not connect 2 players, I basically said what information we could get from the flip. As for the lynch, I actually think going for a Nova lynch in a lynch right or lose situation is a really risky move. And would rather go for these new suspicions from the flip/Seviro's confirmed town last dieing words. All WIFOM though not a strong case leads me back to michael. Will go into this further later. From my experience in mini's the 3 person mafia team usually has the following team composition: The Controller (Tries to control the town's opinion) - This case Michael (SNMM VIII - Mementoss) The Semi-Contributer (Pops in with a opinion when its convienent) - This case BlueyD>Nova>>Gossemer (SNMM VIII - Janaan) The Semi-Lurker (Barely ever posts, but posts just enough) - This case Ninja4ever or Virtu (SNMM VIII - Cosine)
Also I underlined your last opinion, how bout no. That is a scummy statement. We want people to keep the discussion up or the town is doomed. Don't worry about dieing, worry about saying something that leads to a scum kill after your death. Honestly, I don't think anyone should be worried about dieing. There are only two possible mafia kills in my eyes. 1. Artanis 2. Mementoss
Probably not me anymore because I am thought of as less green than before by a couple townies. Lets not worry about confirming town, lets worry about nailing scum. Post your best analysis tonight, post what you think will get a kill tomorrow. We can still win this with good play, hopefully virtu was town and we get a good replacement. After the first one it should only get easier.
Also, to anyone thinking the town can be saved with blues we have no blues powers left as far as I'm concerned. I think every mini has had one power role in the town and that was it, usually a vig or medic.
Hi, im here. This is ridiculous. He should have done something other than self vote...his best case would have been to post vs michaelthe and vote him. I am completely in agreement with seviro's so called "will". Michaelthe first thing, and then its quite probable that BlueyD is mafia. He made an early vote on seviro, and then sat back and didnt do very much, except for late into the voting period where he notes that he is unsure how good seviro's self vote was for the town, and that he was skeptical of michaelthe (which was a common thought at the time. he isnt getting very involved with important decisions yet, and therefore after michael he is my first suspicion.
No there was no mafia power role last game, and since town has lost all of GM's SNMM games except 1, I would say he wouldn't give them one. I think DT, in a game with 3 mafia would be imba, so thats why I assume town either gets 1 medic or 1 vig. Since medic is hard to correctly use I think GM stays with vig.
Alright off of the game balance talk, Nova, if you are town. Please step it up today. I want to hear some good analysis from you. As of late you have at least been putting logic into your play. Make your best analysis you ever made ever. We need everyone on board asap.
That being said, I plan on doing a huge post later today on my thoughts on this game. Hopefully I can get some good analysis, and good cases and figure it out.
No, I'm not being replaced. I'll be home from the hospital this evening and able to make a post or two, and tomorrow my sister might be allowed to come home. Will try my best to make up for lost time, read through the thread and post as much analysis as I can.
As my two suspects are Michaelthe and BlueyD (whoa kinda rhymes) im not sure what to post really without reusing older posts. If you have any questions regarding anybody that you would like me to answer please let me know, at this point i dont really know what to do. Should i post brief analysis regarding the rest of everybody? (the way i did michael and Gosse?) If nothing, im gonna go harder into BlueyD's filter and see if there is anything else i might be able to dig up.
Okay, I'll post some analysis on players after dinner. We might(emphasis on might) have found 2 people in the scum team, but as we need to hit mafia every lynch now (correct?) I'm gonna go through filters and see if i can find a likely 3rd.
My 2 suspects are Nova and michaelthe at this point. I don’t really have anything new to add to Nova’s case, but michaelthe’s ridiculous voting behavior puts him ahead of Nova at this point. Some of the things he says are contradictory, some of them are just plain wrong. I’ve pointed out a few problems with that switch already, but I missed this the first time:
Look at who we have active as well:
Mementoss, Artanis, You, Seviro, Nova.
We can get the guaranteed kill on Nova easily. Goss and Ninja are both afk.
Goss (who had his vote on Nova) was not afk at the moment this post was made. He had posted just 40 minutes before, commenting on michaelthe’s voteswitch. AND MICHAEL ACTUALLY REPLIED TO GOSS, so he can’t have missed the fact that he was there. But after that, it’s convenient to turn around and tell me Goss is afk… So what we have here is a nice little lie!
I don’t know how the vote switch relates to motive, though. If michaelthe is scum, then he knows Seviro is town, yet he’s trying to direct the lynch in the other direction, towards Nova. The least risky move for mafia, by far, would have been to just stick with that lynch. This said, if michaelthe is scum, then Nova is probably townie, and he’s been more threatening to michaelthe than Seviro has so that might be the motive? In terms of information, this is a good lynch – but we can NOT afford a lynch based on acquiring information here. Still I think the case stands on its own.
------------
Since I appear to be under heavy suspicion, I’ll comment on Seviro’s last post, which I wish he’d done a few hours earlier instead of self-lynching, because there was a lot more effort in it. I still think my analysis of his ‘defense’ of Rise was all right: Sure, you can point out places where he’s saying ‘I think he’s townie’ without real justification or defense of the argument, and others where he’s saying “give him time”, which I don’t call a defense because whoever put out a vote against Rise at that point still had the option to unvote later on – everyone was already giving him time until the first lynch, and many were saying “I find Rise suspicious but I’m gonna give him a chance”, like Seviro was. Then Seviro says:
Hell i'm like the only one that is trying to defend him.
I don’t think I should get any scum points for pointing these things out…
It’s pointed out by others that I was more useful at the beginning than at the end, to which I reply that I get home/wake up and the best cases are already written by other people, so all I can do is add to them, so I review the thread and filters and point out what I find, which most of the time turns out to be against someone who has a case on them already. I can’t really point out anything against Artanis (confirmed townie) or mementoss (whose play has been very green, so not a lot to point out), or our inactives like Virtu, so yeah my commentary fell to Goss, Nova, michaelthe (see above) and the late Seviro most of the time – and surprise! They were the ones with cases on their back. When I agree with a case I just say so, no need to clutter up the thread.
Mementoss Analysis As of Night 2: Im posting all of what I think in case I die tonight. You don't need to read it all at the moment, read parts and come back later, you can use it as a reference after I flip green if needed. I will be analyzing from most suspicious to least suspicious.
1. MichaelThe
Filter Analysis:
First couple of posts are standard in mafia game, so I won't quote them as they don't say much. Basically here is a summary: 1. Lets lynch a lurker, force activity 2. Town loses because of inactivity 3. Here are some guides I found helpful 4. I am a noob don't feel threatened by me I looked up OMGUS. (scum trait)
Spends next couple of posts saying the same basic things. Lets post quality posts, while he just continues to post the same stuff he said. Lets jump into the first post worth noting:
On March 23 2012 06:16 michaelthe wrote: I know it is hard to contribute on Day1 in a newbie game, but again, the only way to force... is to force it... Post anything of value to this game of mafia. Even a weak thought about who looks suspicious, who doesn't, if you think we should day1 lynch etc.
Posts that say nothing "HI GUYS" are equal to not posting in my book. As are posts simply agreeing with another post. Try and post some original thought, regardless of how weak it is.
I've made a spreadsheet with posts and ranked posts according to a day1-content scale I made. These are the three lowest people:
1)sc2system 2)Ninja4ever 3)Froggynoddy
You all have posts, but not enough substance!
ULTIMATUM: Post something of value within 8 hours or you are getting my vote!
How in the world is Fenix not number one on this list?
Actually, completely by accident. He should be below sc2system and ninja, but above froggy.
I was tracking posts by quality and page by assigning a value to each post from 0 (greeting, basic chatter), 1 (very basic, but maybe an opinion), 2 (basic thoughts), or 3 (solid attempt at analysis for day1). Best I could do for day1... I suspect filters and exact content will matter more on day 2 or 3+
The scores are as follows:
sc2system: 0,0 (a few posts on day1 I lumpped I think) Ninja: 0,0 Froggy: 0,1,1
And, as you said and I missed: Fenix: 1,1 (Argentina)
So I will add him to the list, I guess in fairness I will give him 8 hours from this post, so an extra 40 minutes or whatever
It is a list, of the least useful townies. It contains an ultimatum to post or be lynched, which is never followed up one. Note that 3 people on this list have been confirmed town. This leaves only 1 person left, Ninja4ever. It is common for mafia to say who they are suspicious of through lists, where they don't have to really have an indepth analysis of why. Along these same lines, its common to include a fellow mafia player on this list not at the first place position. In case that person does flip scum it doesn't bite your ass, and not putting them number 1 or analyzing anything doesn't bring a lot of attention to them.
On March 23 2012 14:21 Rise Of Fenix wrote: My points: I dont think I was thinking straight, and reading over my posts I have really been really playing terribly. Im sorry.
However, I think it is time for a little bit of analysis.
As I was suspicious of Michaelthe earlier, and then was backed up by froggy. Michael the never defended himself. I think that this is reason enough to lynch him, but until he defends himself I wont.
I couldn't help but laugh a bit, one of the main criticisms of your play is that when you wanted to accuse me then found out you could vote and change it off you still didnt.... You still arent!
Anyways, I was going to post before I went to bed on the issues of the past few hours:
On Fenix:
The issue is whether he was legitimately confused or had some sort of contradiction. One of the things that caught my eye when Mementoss lined up Fenix's posts where these two lines:
On March 23 2012 05:24 Rise Of Fenix wrote: Day one lynching is always a solid plan to move foreward, but no real tells are showing thus far. I will likely post my thoughts about 1 hour before the deadline. But not lynching anyone only benefits the scum.
On March 23 2012 07:27 Rise Of Fenix wrote: What I said was not that I wouldnt post until the End, I meant i wouldnt vote until the end. .
Someone pointed out that voting last minute appears scummy, but then he insists he meant vote and not post thoughts. The idea of him voting late became somewhat reasonable when we found out he didn't know you could change your vote, but the idea that he initially posted thoughts when he meant votes is still odd. Even with English as a second language, thoughts and votes are not the same.
The other analysis of Fenix was based on a few other minor contradictions such as accusing without voting, saying he would vote for me but not (and again here...) and a few other minor things.
The issue is simple- is Fenix just making bad plays, or is he scum making really odd contradictions. Some of the things I thought of when looking at Mementoss' criticism are 1) Most newbies games don't find a mafia in day 1, the analysis is too shaky, 2) Fenix made multiple mistakes with terms and ideas, reinforces the idea that Fenix is just making bad plays...
On March 23 2012 11:44 BlueyD wrote: I don't know if the guy is awful scum or awful townie. All I know is he's awful. If he's town, he'll be absolutely useless to us, .
This might be true, but we still have a few people that are lurking really hard. I was hoping to stop lurkers with my vote ultimatum, and it worked (or helped) with a few people. But we still have a few that aren't posting. After thinking about it, I think a vote for one of these is better. They are less helpful than "awful town" and also, it prevents them from being modkilled- which is real bad for the town.
On Froggy
You came out VERY defensive. I called for lurkers to post, and they did... But hey, that's not my strategy!:
On March 23 2012 04:54 froggynoddy wrote: The decision to lynch should therefore be based on 1. information (gathered by pressuring, amongst other ways) 2. Correct analysis. But without 1. we shall never be able to do 2. And therefore any decisions to lynch will be less strong.
Your turn Euro's. See you in the morning.
Mentions Fenix, but does not state a solid opinion on him either way. Mentions this is scummy, but the rest could be bad town. NEVER commits to either. Wants to be able to say he lynched a greenie to keep majority. Also I find it interesting to see Michael say voting last minute and posting last minute are both scum traits. Both, which he used before the end of last nights lynch, which we will get to.
Mentions froggy, but it makes no sense, Froggy states a lynch based on information from pressuring is more strong than a lynch based on other information. Michael says I called out lurkers to post. I don't see how this is defensive.
On March 24 2012 05:08 michaelthe wrote: I was 100% ready to come and vote for sc2system.
He essentially had zero content in a few filler posts. Then he voted on a bandwagon without activity. BUT the slip from Artanis[Xp] is too severe. Mementoss pointed it out, but it is worth repeating:
On March 23 2012 23:55 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Agrees with another townie to gain cred, this is a trend in Seviro's posts; rarely comes up with any own ideas and mostly agrees with other townies to 'blend in'. Also jumps on the against the 1 hour bandwagon which is fairly obvious. Long post basically stating the obvious and agreeing with other people.
1. ONLY scum know who the townies are. This is a simply point, they know who is mafia, therefore they know who isnt mafia. Even if a DT checks someone, the person could have been framed, or the miller, or the GF or whatever. The ONLY way to know someone is town is TO BE mafia.
2. To call this a newbie mistake I think is incorrect. Freudian slip is more likely. There is a natural hesitation in everyone's mind as they play this game. To post with certainty that someone is a Town, even in 3 words, is a massive slip.
On March 24 2012 01:58 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Oops, yeah that looks bad. That was a bad town play. What I meant was someone making a play that is obviously town favored. I worded it poorly. I believe it's a slip that both townies and scum can make with little effort though.
3. His only defense is "oops, my bad, scum slips dont happen since I would vet every post". Doesn't convince me. If this were true, 90% of scum slips wouldn't happen!
This is too severe to overlook! sc2system is a good lynch, I still don't think Fenix is a great lynch, but Artanis is the clear day1 lynch in my mind!
##Vote: Artanis[Xp]
Says he was 100% about to vote sc2system, who was first on his list. All for lynching a lurker day 1 because analysis day 1 is too shaky to go by. Then completely changes his mind and puts down a vote on one of the more active players, who is now almost confirmed town. On point 1, re-states what I initially pointed out, then talks about a bunch of roles that aren't even in this game. Point 2, isn't a point against artanis, its just an opinion of what term it should be called. 3.While his defense was bad, you are over exagherating it by a mile.
-Says Fenix is a bad lynch, even though he ends up voting Fenix.
-Goes on trying to convince me and Seviro that it was a huge slip and to vote artanis right away. Even after I explain why its not a good day 1 lynch. Tunnels Artanis pretty hard for 3 posts. This is important as it is consistent in his play to tunnel.
On March 26 2012 03:10 michaelthe wrote: I'm sorry I was inactive the past 24 hours, rl was busy (still is for the next 12 hours, but daughter is sleeping). I also didn't expect as much discussion in the night phases.
This is going to be long post, we actually have a good bit to go over!
Night 1 Results: I was initially surprised to see a vig shot on a townie, but it quickly became apparent that this was a great call by Artanis. I would have been going at his throat today due to his slip. Artanis basically proved it was a typo, as he claimed. Artanis is now pretty confirmed town. He also picked his target well. Sc2 was at best an anti-town townie.
Initial Day 2 Thoughts At the end of day1, I reread the argument between Seviro and Artanis. While I was pretty sure Artanis was scum, I thought Seviro's reponse was absurd. I came to the conclusion that one of these two were most likely scum... Since Artanis is now mostly-confirmed, the attack on Seviro gained another look.
I came today and read and took notes the last 3 pages or so. While reading Night1, I noticed that Goss was the only one to suggest before AND after that sc2 vig hit wasn't good. This was in my notes, but I actually didnt too think much of it until Artanis posted something.
Artanis posted a list of 3 ppl. I am going to attack the other two on that list. I know this looks scummy (zomg, Im on a list of 3, look at them 2, not me!), but I think people will see me being reasonable rather than overly-defense on the attack on Seviro/Goss. I already posted that these two aroused my suspicion. My reasons above and below should be clear.
Defense from Artanis Artanis makes two points: 1) I defended Fenix as probable town: There were two clear options: He was terrible town, or he was terrible scum. What made me think he was just terrible town is because he was confused on multiple issues regarding the rules and terms in Mafia. He wasn't playing scummy, he was playing confused. I made the case that sc2 was a better lynch, but it was clear we had two useless players, either of them wasn't bad. I think most people weren't surprised when Fenix flipped town, but everyone was fine with that. 2) You call it a change in play style when I went from analytical to jumping on you hard for your slip. I much prefer an analytical style- rather, thats how I think. I would suggest jumping on you was objective. Everything I know and have read about mafia points out that your slip was the largest scum slip in the book. I could imagine mafia vets coming and analyzing the game and saying “WTF, NO ONE CAUGHT ARTANIS' SLIP?!?!” You yourself admitted it was a giant slip. Jumping on it was objectively a good thing. If you want more, let me know.
On Seviro:
(This is based heavily on his filter, pull it up if you want to see specific posts, this is already long enough without them all) First substantial post after initial wave of basic crap:
On March 23 2012 08:10 Seviro wrote: EBWOP, If we agree that everyone should have a vote posted at a set time before the deadline (since no one disagreed right now let's say 8 to 6 hour) we can then make a better choice for the lynch of this day and if someone fail to do so then he is most likely to be proposed as a lunch candidate.
1. He is suggesting a policy lynch based on not voting within an 8 hour deadline. The reason policy lynches are bad is because it removes analysis and focuses only on the policy. This one specifically means someone would be a lynch target simply for voting 4 hours from the deadline rather than 8. If you get scum to meet the deadline, the scum get a free town kill.
2. Seviro's reponse to Artanis Attack. I was fairly certain Artanis was scum, after what I saw as a strong slip. But I think the vig claim was great (more on that later). I reread the Artanis / Servio post and thought Artanis' attack was simple (based on day1 stuffs..) but Serviro WAY overreacted with his defense. He went on to vote for Artanis in his defense, which is a TERRBIE move!
3. FOUR minutes later he states a willingness to go after Fenix...
After the Fenix train picks up some steam, he totally forgets about Artanis.
Then he changes OFF Artanis and... onto Virtu, for not being active enough. His acusations are extremely fickle. He ends the day by jumping on the same train as everyone, Fenix.
4. After Day1, he posts that he thinks sc2system is town. He has defended bad play of Fenix and SC2 as town. ONLY MAFIA KNOW WHO TOWNIES ARE!
On March 25 2012 06:39 BlueyD wrote: And I didn't like that he had a "pressure but no lynch" opinion on lurkers at first, but then switched his vote to Virtu for his period of inactivity, despite many ok Virtu posts before. "Flexible in opinion" is how I'd describe Seviro, and that's not a compliment...
This is what I meant by pressure but not necessarly lynch, I put my vote on him and then he came and posted his thought so I switched back. This is what I call pressure play.
He discusses the virtu vote as “pressure”. A vote with nothing behind it, with no case, nothing. He doesn't at all revisit his Artanis vote here.
His most recent posts finally address the Artanis vote, his reasoning is ABSURD:
On March 25 2012 22:54 Artanis[Xp] wrote: .He also used a chainsaw argument against me after I accused him, voting me for little reason seemingly only because I voted on him and some minor suspicions. Regardless of alignment, that's bad.
I don't think it was a "chainsaw argument" as you say because I did defend myself. I just thought "ok, he took all my post out of context so let's do the same thing with him". I know that was a bad play, but your accusations were meaningless so I just kind of did the same.
Now i'm gonna go read some filter and I'll post some of my thought after, especially Mementoss, a lot of people seem to think that he his almost confirmed town and given last game scenario, I don't like that. So brb in some hours.
He says it wasn't a chainsaw defense, but then pretty much describes a chainsaw defense. We have all been discussing the initial Seviro/Artanis issue, I think Seviro would rather see it buried.
On Gossemerr:
What really caught me off was him talking about the vig shot. Before and after the vig shot he thinks its a terrible idea.
On March 25 2012 12:07 Gossemerr wrote: Wow... fail vig shot.. I was too damn late. Now I slightly suspicious of Mem and Virtu. Entirely WIFOM, but makes me wonder.
On March 25 2012 11:56 Gossemerr wrote: Are you SERIOUSLY suggesting that our vig should shoot someone who is possibly not a mafia? You would ACTUALLY want to waste a mafia kill on a bad town player? I think sc2system is playing either bad scum or town right now, as my older posts suggest, but why does he HAVE to die right now? Maybe Day 2 he will actually contribute.
First, here is why its a good vig shot: 1) Artanis had a LOT of heat on him (at least in mind) due to a big mistake of calling someone a townie (which only Mafia could know). Artanis is now the most confirmed town we have. 2) sc2system was either a anti-town townie (useless posts, wanting to confuse ppl, etc.) or scum. A vig shot on him isn't bad in either case. A townie posting anti-town crap is useless. Even more useless if they get modkilled later for inactivity!
Further more, it is particularly absurd that Goss would dislike this vig shot because Goss' ONLY attack has been agasint sc2system! Why would be pro-lynch on him and not pro-vig hit!?
I think Goss thinks it's pro-town to frown upon a vig shot hitting a green, and therefore did. Everyone else was pretty much in consensus that it was a good vig shot.
Conclusion I think this is terribly scummy from both Seviro and Goss. Seviro wanted his bad play buried, he ignored it mostly, and then defended it poorly. Goss made a big mistake of being the only person to go against the vig hit, despite making a case agasint the target! He went against the vig hit because he thinks it's pro-town to frown upon the vig accidently killing a green.
Right now I would vote for either of these, I think they both made major mistakes. If I could vote twice, I would. I'm starting with Seviro because I think it's too his advantage to have more time past from his mistakes so he can bury them. Also, he has already tried, and failed, to cover up his bad play, Goss hasn't had a full chance to defend himself.
##Vote: Seviro
Explains why vig shot was good. I already stated early why it was good. Second time posting the same thing relatively quick after I post this. Maybe because I look town and if he says what I say he will look town?
Decides since Artanis is almost confirmed town, and he argued with Seviro, Seviro must be a scum. Poor poor logic. From this he is the first person Day 2 to post a case against Seviro, who ultimately ends up getting lynched and flipping green. Lets look at his case.
1st point - Takes words out of context, he mentioned people who don't vote before 8 hours may be good candidates to lynch. Not policy to auto lynch them. 2nd point - You used OMGUS, lets lynch him 3rd - In context, he did this because he didn't want a no-lynch day 1. 4 - He states who he thinks are town, even though its bad play. Never said confirmed town, this point is useless.
Lets look at the gossemer case: Based completely on Goss opinion on the vig shot. Re-explains what I said. Using WIFOM to say you think its bad? You must think its pro-town to think its bad? YOUR SCUM. Obviously vig shot on green is worse than vig shot on scum.
So if I disagree that using the vig shot on someone who is maybe town (now confirmed), that is scummy to you? Don't see the reasoning there. And in my reasoning I said maybe he would have stepped up his game, who knows what could have been happening IRL. Also, I would not say that EVERYONE was in a consensus, only a few have any said anything about the vig shot being a good idea. I can see why Artansis would want to save his own ass, but we still wasted a potentially free mafia kill. Moving on, I never voted for sc2system so how would that indicate that I was pro-lynch? I really don't see how I made a "major mistake," by thinking the vig shot was not a good idea. I tried to post as soon as I got home as well, but it was already near the deadline. I really have a hard time following how thinking that the vig shot was bad is somehow making me seem scummy to you.
Anyway, I'm going to analyze the thread and filters and post in a few hours.
On March 25 2012 02:06 Gossemerr wrote: sc2system is the most scummy candidate in my opinion that we currently have. There are a few other cases out there on him so I won't rehash those. However, this response to when I asked:
Are you SERIOUSLY suggesting that our vig should shoot someone who is possibly not a mafia? You would ACTUALLY want to waste a mafia kill on a bad town player? I think sc2system is playing either bad scum or town right now, as my older posts suggest, but why does he HAVE to die right now? Maybe Day 2 he will actually contribute.
On the vig shot: -You had made a case against him. You had a high suspicion he was scum. This was YOUR case and YOUR suspicion which you later essentially deny. -You suggest that he might have “stepped up on day 2?” More likely he would have made it more difficult. I think that was clear on day 1. -Artanis basically confirmed himself town for day 2 when he was a good lynch target for day 2. He gave the town a valuable asset, while taking out a useless/bad/possible scum person. -Even AFTER you realized the above point, you still dont see it as good?
You are pretty much the only person who sees the vig kill as bad, I still do not understand why.
There has been a call for you to post some more substantial content. I would like to hear your thoughts on the current issues. Nova and Seviro would be a good start.
-Tunnels gossemer case further basically re-stating what he said before, even after Goss defends it. Tunneling towns to get focus on them, or at least have the town doubt them. It makes the tunnelled player unable to post anything of use then makes them look suspicious later in the game. I doubt a mafia would tunnel another mafia. They would make a case, but not further tunnel it.
Vote switching before deadline without reason, after scolding RoF for even bringing it up.
On March 27 2012 06:29 michaelthe wrote: I am changing my vote to Nova.
He was already on my short list of potential suspects. I think the initial case against his meta shift was okay, but pretty much confirmed by his reponse and ppl from last game, in addition to analysis of his posts this game and weak defense.
I would also hope we get 6 votes on him rather than 5. Why? Mafia benefit from a no lynch, as the same targets would remain with no new info. A mafia could quick switch from one target to make this happen, maybe even Nova voting for himself.
After seeing Seviro vpte himself, the other option is that both of the two targets tonight are red. Seviro and Nova could be planning to swap votes last second in order to score the no lynch. They could both argue this is better for them, since they both suggest self preservation as the motive. (Although this may be weaker since I am posting this).
Nova has been posting some random analysis in the past few hours. This could be a last ditch effort to prove useful, or he could also be doing this to try and get me hit tomorrow in the day lynch if Seviro comes up green and is killed tonight. If we killed seviro, and he flipped green, we would have two suspects, Nova and Me. Nova would obviously go for me.
Again, I think we need 6 votes, if not 7, depending on which scinario we have (and who the third mafia is).
##Vote: Nova_Terra
After tunnelling Goss and seviro so hard for the first 40 hours of the day, you would think he would switch from one to the other. Nope. He switches to Nova. Why? He doesn't switch because he agrees with the Nova case, actually he never commented on my case against Nova or Nova's defense actually. He switches purely because of some WIFOM ideas. Mafia last minute switch into no-lynch. Really contradicting of his earlier views, also, maybe trying to get his name off Seviro as he pushed it the hardest, when seviro flips green.
On March 27 2012 06:33 michaelthe wrote: This is turning into a clusterF*** tonight.
I think its clear that either one or both of the targets are red, otherwise they would just lurk. We have to kill one with a large margin though, as the no-lynch is a big thing we need to be careful of. Read my above post, I think Nova is the target for tonight.
You made it a clusterfuck. Re-enforces this idea, so maybe the town will tunnel the other leading in a mafia win the next day. If both targets were green mafia could lurk and let the town kill eachother. If both targets were red I think more cases woulda been thrown on the table rather then them bussing eachother.
WIFOM
Everyone that has posted a case against Michael is dead and confirmed town.
Additionally, I would suggest we open with a lurker lynch strategy. Stating our willingness to lynch a lurker should force activity. If push comes to shove, we must follow through, but hopefully it will force no lurkers. I know mafia tips suggest policy lynches are bad, but I think it's hard to get the ball rolling in newbie games.
I've been reading FAQs and strategy and whatnot (I missed getting last game by a bit :/) but still had to look up OMGUS. So here is a webpage I found useful: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Main_Page
I would still like to go back and read the opening day of some of the newbie games. I will do this regardless, but I think it would be beneficial for those that played in those newbie games to go back, reread, and offer analysis of those games as well (or even if you didn't play like me!) My point is we can't analyze players who haven't played any games very accurately, but we can analyze strategy of past newbie games.
Your third point is some very weak finger pointing:
I know it is hard to contribute on Day1 in a newbie game, but again, the only way to force... is to force it... Post anything of value to this game of mafia. Even a weak thought about who looks suspicious, who doesn't, if you think we should day1 lynch etc.
Posts that say nothing "HI GUYS" are equal to not posting in my book. As are posts simply agreeing with another post. Try and post some original thought, regardless of how weak it is.
I've made a spreadsheet with posts and ranked posts according to a day1-content scale I made. These are the three lowest people:
1)sc2system 2)Ninja4ever 3)Froggynoddy
You all have posts, but not enough substance!
ULTIMATUM: Post something of value within 8 hours or you are getting my vote!
There is pretty much nothing to go by. Your content is zilch, you are putting suspicion on people who have more content than you; I have argued that forcing lurkers to post is beneficial to town, more convincingly than you have (as has seviro and to a certain extent Nova_Terra), yet you put a really weak case forward against three posters.
I'm not voting for you YET but you seriously need to shape up. Accusing players who have posted content in day 1 seems scummy to me as there is so little to go by.
Additionally, I would suggest we open with a lurker lynch strategy. Stating our willingness to lynch a lurker should force activity. If push comes to shove, we must follow through, but hopefully it will force no lurkers. I know mafia tips suggest policy lynches are bad, but I think it's hard to get the ball rolling in newbie games.
I've been reading FAQs and strategy and whatnot (I missed getting last game by a bit :/) but still had to look up OMGUS. So here is a webpage I found useful: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Main_Page
I would still like to go back and read the opening day of some of the newbie games. I will do this regardless, but I think it would be beneficial for those that played in those newbie games to go back, reread, and offer analysis of those games as well (or even if you didn't play like me!) My point is we can't analyze players who haven't played any games very accurately, but we can analyze strategy of past newbie games.
Your third point is some very weak finger pointing:
I know it is hard to contribute on Day1 in a newbie game, but again, the only way to force... is to force it... Post anything of value to this game of mafia. Even a weak thought about who looks suspicious, who doesn't, if you think we should day1 lynch etc.
Posts that say nothing "HI GUYS" are equal to not posting in my book. As are posts simply agreeing with another post. Try and post some original thought, regardless of how weak it is.
I've made a spreadsheet with posts and ranked posts according to a day1-content scale I made. These are the three lowest people:
1)sc2system 2)Ninja4ever 3)Froggynoddy
You all have posts, but not enough substance!
ULTIMATUM: Post something of value within 8 hours or you are getting my vote!
There is pretty much nothing to go by. Your content is zilch, you are putting suspicion on people who have more content than you; I have argued that forcing lurkers to post is beneficial to town, more convincingly than you have (as has seviro and to a certain extent Nova_Terra), yet you put a really weak case forward against three posters.
I'm not voting for you YET but you seriously need to shape up. Accusing players who have posted content in day 1 seems scummy to me as there is so little to go by.
On March 23 2012 06:16 michaelthe wrote: I know it is hard to contribute on Day1 in a newbie game, but again, the only way to force... is to force it... Post anything of value to this game of mafia. Even a weak thought about who looks suspicious, who doesn't, if you think we should day1 lynch etc.
Posts that say nothing "HI GUYS" are equal to not posting in my book. As are posts simply agreeing with another post. Try and post some original thought, regardless of how weak it is.
I've made a spreadsheet with posts and ranked posts according to a day1-content scale I made. These are the three lowest people:
1)sc2system 2)Ninja4ever 3)Froggynoddy
You all have posts, but not enough substance!
ULTIMATUM: Post something of value within 8 hours or you are getting my vote!
How in the world is Fenix not number one on this list?
Actually, completely by accident. He should be below sc2system and ninja, but above froggy.
I was tracking posts by quality and page by assigning a value to each post from 0 (greeting, basic chatter), 1 (very basic, but maybe an opinion), 2 (basic thoughts), or 3 (solid attempt at analysis for day1). Best I could do for day1... I suspect filters and exact content will matter more on day 2 or 3+
The scores are as follows:
sc2system: 0,0 (a few posts on day1 I lumpped I think) Ninja: 0,0 Froggy: 0,1,1
And, as you said and I missed: Fenix: 1,1 (Argentina)
So I will add him to the list, I guess in fairness I will give him 8 hours from this post, so an extra 40 minutes or whatever
On March 23 2012 06:22 Nova_Terra wrote: michaelthe could you make that 12 hours for them? some of them might live in europe and they have my sympathy. Also would everyone be okay with a 6 hour soft deadline?
not much of an ultimatum if I change it 5 minutes later!
You're Euro.. what time is it there?
Then his first actual vote happen 23 hour after his ultimatum whereas he said an ultimatum of 8 hour more so that he vote for someone that is not on his list.
Which lead me to talk about the "Feudian slip" as he calls it.
He seems to insist a lot on this than needed, now that we already had ROS and sc2system under the radar he bring back a point that had been discuss hours before as if since ROS and sc2system where dead men walking at this stage if he could change day 1 lynch then day 2 and 3 would have been a big mess for the town.
I'll point out also that he was not the first to vote for Artanis since my vote was still on him and most of his opinion were mostly reformulating. Then, at the end of the day he just follow the bandwagon as he see that Artanis won't get lynched. Sorry for the lenght of the post, longer than expected.
Also the vote against Nova would give less information about Michael, and if Nova flips red it would make Michael look confirmed town. If Nova flips green we have less information on Michael and he says he just wanted to get a majority.
Questions directed at Michael: What is your response to Seviro's last dying post involving you? Why are you such scum and how do you feel about being lynched tommorrow?
On March 23 2012 11:44 BlueyD wrote: Just a quick summary of Rise of Fenix's behavior up to now...
- Admits to not reading the rules and says some really confused stuff about voting as a result - Accuses michaelthe due to his eagerness to lynch an inactive, when many have argued we should do this - Tells michaelthe he would vote for him if there were an unlynch in the game - Doesn't actually put in a vote for michaelthe once he knows he can unvote later, says he has no reads instead - Uses really short posts frequently
I don't know if the guy is awful scum or awful townie. All I know is he's awful. If he's town, he'll be absolutely useless to us, but if he's mafia, he'll quickly give himself out on the 2nd day, at this pace. I'm putting my chips on bad townie for the moment.
To Rise Of Fenix: You better come up with some real information as to why you acted like you acted (see above points), or else I WILL put my vote in for your lynch.
---
Ninja4Ever. and sc2system seem to be our 2 big time lurkers at the moment. They, together with Fenix, are part of my top 3 should lynch list.
-Sums up my case on RoF. -Has same list as Michael almost, sc2,ninja and Rof. Only missing froggy.
On March 24 2012 07:49 BlueyD wrote: We've really got no news on Rise of Fenix so my analysis from my last post about him hasn't changed. Earlier today, I was 50/50 on lynching Fenix or sc2system, since my 3rd top 3 pick (ninja4ever) started posting, but then sc2system started acting... Reaaaally scummy.
I'll point to just one thing: Between his vote for Rise Of Fenix and his vote for No Lynch (due, according to him, to Rise now contributing), Rise Of Fenix has ONLY ONE POST. And it says:
On March 24 2012 05:36 Rise Of Fenix wrote: give me another chance, please. I will make up my terrible play today tommorow.
That's a contribution?! That's even more useless than the rest! I don't know why he chose to vote no lynch at that moment, but his reason makes NO SENSE. Maybe it had to do with him being under attack and trying to make us think he was just a little peaceful guy?
... And then he votes for Virtu out of nowhere. Pure bandwagon jumping, and not one that was going anywhere either way. Virtu hasn't been scummish at all, and while he had a few hours of inactivity, when he posts it at least makes sense.
I don't know if we'd get more info out of a Rise of Fenix lynch, but it doesn't matter to me when I'm getting huuuuuge scumvibes from sc2master.
-Just thought it was worth mentioning the defense on Virtu
Alot of BlueyD's filter is that of a sheep. He is a follower, the opposite of Nova_Terra's case on him.
On March 25 2012 06:39 BlueyD wrote: On Rise and sc2system: Short version: Rise was most likely just stupid, not much of a loss if we lynched him and turned up green. sc2system seemed less stupid and just as chaotic as Rise, hence more scummy to me. Not gonna add more on this, it's taken enough space already.
---
On Artanis and Seviro: I thought Artanis's case wasn't strong enough to consider a day 1 lynch, but I took notice of it. I'm not gonna clutter up the threat by repeating what he said, but Seviro hasn't shown a strong opinion all game that was really his. He seems to be able to appreciate other people's logic while never coming up with his own.
I also didn't like that when he got voted on by Artanis, he just voted Artanis back. And I didn't like that he had a "pressure but no lynch" opinion on lurkers at first, but then switched his vote to Virtu for his period of inactivity, despite many ok Virtu posts before. "Flexible in opinion" is how I'd describe Seviro, and that's not a compliment...
Waits for cases to be laid out, comes in and either re-states what they said, or says his opinion on it in a few quick sentences.
On March 25 2012 14:08 BlueyD wrote: On the sc2system hit: Ack! Well, he was just as green as Rise was... Given the suspicions many of us had and mementoss's + virtu's suggestion that a vigi hit him tonight, I think it's fair to assume he was vigi hit and froggy was mafia hit.
On the froggynoddy hit: I don't know what to make of this. He was off my radar. He was neither the most scummy-looking, nor the most active or inactive, nor the most helpful. I can't read anything from this hit.
On Artanis's vigi claim: I'll see whether anyone counterclaims then decide whether to believe you or not.
Tomorrow is MLG finals, I'll be at a barcraft all day, should be back at night though.
Well you obviously didn't look, or you don't want Michael to be noticed? Is that it? What you say is exactly what mafia wanted to do with this hit, a semi active contributer, that the town couldn't get information off of. You re-stating this information is suspicious, and tries to make it seem like you don't want people to look into it.
On March 26 2012 15:17 BlueyD wrote: The best cases by far right now are those brought up against Seviro and Nova. The case against Gossamer by Virtu was unconvincing, especially since he failed to post the whole thing... And the case against michaelthe is weak as well: He defends himself well against Artanis’s legit pressure, and Seviro’s case on him feels very forced to begin with.
Nova: Not much to say here, just read mementoss’s post on him, he does an excellent job pointing out the inconsistencies, weak cases brought up, and different metagame of Nova this game... Nova’s defense, in return, is spectacularly bad: He makes the most unreasonably long-winded post in the thread full of real life spam, and explains his ‘new metagame’ as a way to get closer to mementoss’s play, even though he’s actually getting farther from it in my opinion. Scummy behavior in my eyes.
I also think it’s funny that he’s leaning “scum” for Seviro and “null leaning scummy” for me, but I’m the one who got FoSed.
Seviro: I think he’s scum too. Erratic voting record, most posts giving no new contributions, some stuff about ‘pressure but no lynch’ which was really silly, etc... It’s all been pointed out before me so I won’t repeat. But I will point out a few posts (or parts of posts):
On March 26 2012 03:04 Seviro wrote: He was the first one to make a real case against Rise Of Fenix which really started the train rolling in my opinion. While Rise was doing a great job of sinking himself into bad and bad post, peolple started to look more into it after this case. He also was the first one to point out sc2system lurkerness.These two people had already been mentionned beforehand, respectively by Gossemer and Ninja4ever. My point is, not that it mean anything since it was the same for a lot of people, his two main suspect flipped town which is worth pointing out I think.
1. These 2 were a lot of people’s first 2 suspects. Pointing out that they were mementoss’s as well is not worth it.
2. He pointed out the lurking of people who had been pointed out by Gossemer and Ninja4ever, which makes him the first to make these cases? Contradiction, anyone?
And I like how you position yourself as a defender of Rise, twice...
On March 24 2012 05:44 Seviro wrote: Where in the world do you see in this post that I am following the Rise Of Fenix train? Hell i'm like the only one that is trying to defend him.
On March 26 2012 03:39 Seviro wrote: What are you talking about?. Literally all the EFFING day I've been DEFENDING Fenix in hope that he would come up with something useful, which didn'T happen.
When your only time specifically mentioning Rise day 1 is this:
On March 23 2012 06:07 Seviro wrote: And about Rise, posting your thought about 1 hour before the deadline is possibly the more scummy thing you could do as the deadline is relatively late and a lot of people are not around at the time. Voting at this time is basically a ninja vote and it is not right to do so since, as Nova said we wouldn't have enough time to discuss about it and change our vote if need be.
He was commenting on Rise's "I will likely post my thoughts about 1 hour before the deadline." comment at that point... I get it now! That must be the old “defend him by pointing out his scummy behavior” strategy! Yeah, I don’t see it too often…
I’d be fine with lynching any of these two at the moment. They may very well both be scum. But since I only vote once…
##Vote: Seviro
Note the soft defense on Michael here. Also note he says almost the exact same thing as Ninja4ever. "Nova and Seviro are clearly the best cases, michael and goss cases should be disregarded". Does the same as usual, says hey look at this guys case. Its pretty good. I find him suspicious now too.
His case against Seviro: His first point against Seviro's no opinion on a vigi hit is legit, but over exhagerated. He then goes onto discredit Seviro's posts about me, which in turn were decent points that shoulda been brought up. Scum trying to defend me to look townish, cause I will ultimately be murdered before I am lynched?
Also note how Michael and BlueyD single handidly got the bandwagon on Seviro (townie) going. The only reason Nova_Terra was third on the bandwagon it seems was to keep himself from being lynched.
Oh, I really just think now that Fenix is playing poorly or just doesn't care enough to put enough time on the game. But I'll give him the chance to step up his play because I really think he is town.
I think that if he was mafia, his fellow scum would have helped him in the background so that he don't look so suspicious. For now I think he is just bad and as I said, i'm willing to give him a chance to step up his play. I shouldn't have said that I think that he is really town, more like I don't see him being more scummy than anyone else right now.
Yeah I know, I just feel like it's too obvious to be true. I might be wrong tho.
Okay, so he plays poorly, looks suspicious, and feels like obvious scum to you. Great defense! It doesn't feel like you're defending him at all to me, since you bring up something I can bold in every single post. I'm not at 1/1 or at 1/4 now, I'm at 4/4.
Truth is when someone looks this bad, we lynch him to know what he is. That's how the game is played. He was a decent lynch target from the start and the only defense you could have brought out was "someone else looks even worse", as I did.
Never try to defend me, by the way.
Bolding the wrong parts, to make it seem super contradicting, when really it wasn't. Initially when I skimmed this I thought it was a decent point. But re-brought to my attention by the late Seviro I realize it was terrible.
1. Basically says, I think he is a bad town. Which is a defense because ultimately we want to lynch scum 2. "more like I don't see him being more scummy than anyone else right now." should have been bolded. 3. Seems to obvious to be scum.
So he basically said three times he said he wasn't convinced he was scum. Which means he was more comfortable with another lynch. Which is defending in a sort. You twisting his words against him out of context, and bolding the wrong parts to make him look worse is scum work Mr, scummy indeed.
On March 27 2012 06:59 BlueyD wrote: I don't know if we can see Seviro's voting on himself as town-favored, actually. We've already agreed that it's critical we lynch a mafia tonight, so if he's town the good move is certainly not to vote for his own lynching, especially since his take on Nova (our other target) is 'slightly leaning scum'. I would rather have seen a defense than this, or a "yeah, I haven't been great, but Nova is worse, lynch him and give me another chance".
I still stand by my idea that both might be red, and they're playing against each other so that the survivor won't be suspicious, given that it seems obvious one of the two is about to get lynched.
------
I want to draw attention to michaelthe's voteswitch. Vote count at the moment of his switch:
And then he switches to Nova, saying we need 6 votes on a guy - but we do before he switches, and not after! He argues that mafia benefits from a no-lynch, but he's actually getting us closer to that himself. Now Seviro just has to switch back at the last minute and we have a no-lynch... So we have here a nice case of "actions go left, words go right" by michaelthe.
Same boat as michael here, thinks its most likely both are scum. Goes on to disagree with crazy Michaels shit storm, as it would distance him and michael as one of them would probably get lynched tomorrow.
On March 27 2012 07:13 BlueyD wrote: Sure, michaelthe, we can decide we're not counting the 2 guys we suspect as mafia. Then the vote count was 4-2 and it's now 3-3. We're still farther away from a lynch than we were before.
I think with BlueyD's most recent post he is trying to bus michael. To give mafia a chance to win after he is lynched.
WIFOM: BlueyD helped the bandwagon on seviro. Initially always on the same side of the vote as themichael initially. Similar ideas to ninja4ever Nova Tunnelled BlueyD slighty, if BlueyD is town Nova is probably scum and vice versa
Questions to BlueyD Reply to Seviros last post (guess you did now) Who do you think will die tonight/why? Who do you think is logically next to go after Michael flips scum?
Overall Opinion Scum-buddies with Michael. The semi-afterthefact-contributer on the Mafia team.
3. Ninja4Ever
Filter Analysis
First 3 posts, I will try to post later I will try to post later I will try to post later Drunk
Stalling, trying to let himself lurk early in the day.
On March 23 2012 17:59 Ninja4ever. wrote: Some thoughts before going to school :
About the kill lurker strategy : it can make sense, mafia are often lurking as it gives them a way to not be judged and therefore not make mistake. At worst a not so useful townie is killed. Seem like the best thing we can come up with with the lack of information we have on day one. Although, I'd like to say that, since from the very first posts, we said our strategy would very like be to hit on the lurker list. the probabilities of a mafia lurking aren't that great. It's also interesting to think about HOW a lurking mafia, if there is one, would react to such a strategy ? Two things come to my mind : an inexperienced mafia would all of a sudden start posting a lot more than he previously was, and a more experienced one would probably stop lurking just enough not to be considered a lurker anymore. Townies wouldn't change their behavior. I'll analyse more on the lurker list and on the rise of fenix case when I'm back from school, gotta go for now.
You would know how a lurking mafia would act, cause you are one. Notes before he is on the list of inactivity lurker lynches. Then comes in and agrees with lurker lynch. Then says wouldn't a lurker mafia post a lot more? Which he does, he basically was posting for the sake of not being a lurker.
On March 24 2012 02:33 Ninja4ever. wrote: Ok I FINALLY have time to write everything I've been thinking.
Rise Of Fenix case :
Kinda hard to speak on it as most of the things have already been said. All his posts are either contradicting each other or not adding real content. The question is, is it just bad play or mafia play ? After going through all of his post, I didn't find a lot that could help mafia, only these two little things :
Rise Of Fenix Argentina. March 23 2012 05:24. Posts 16PM
Day one lynching is always a solid plan to move foreward, but no real tells are showing thus far. I will likely post my thoughts about 1 hour before the deadline. But not lynching anyone only benefits the scum.
Posts basically saying we HAVE to lynch, what ever happens. No lynch on day one when we have so few information might be the best find to do. A lynch on day one is, especially in a newbie game, a good way for mafia to start, as we have too little information and too little experience to get a mafia. Now, I know in the previous game town tried the no lynch on day one strategy and it failed, but the database if just too small to make any deduction from it. All in all, I still prefere our alternative to pressure lurkers (It is really important that we don’t end up like last game where all the mafia was active against a few remaining townies + lurkers), what I wanted to say is that trying to enforce a lynch strategy is something a mafia would totally do.
I’d say it’s 60-40 beteween mafia and townie bad play. Still not enough for me to jump on the lynch band wagon. I still prefer to pressure lurkers, and switch my vote to Rise of Fenix if everyone is active enough. Therefore :
##Vote: sc2system (sorry bro, we're the 2 kind of lurkers left, can't vote for myself)
The analysts case :
People that actually seem tu put a lot of thinking into their analys are probably as important as blues. The thing is, if one of them is mafia he can screw the town pretty hard, making it really important to know wether or not they're townies. For exemple, two analyses in particular come to my mind :
1°) Mementoss on Rise of Fenix
It made perfect sense and I agreed with mostly every thing. Really nothing suspicious there.
2°) Artosis on Seviro
I don’t find your analysis based on strong enough evidences to warrant a lynch, your main argument being he posted too much redondancy and too little content, am I right ? Too me this is kinda natural when you have so few information, and it looks like every thing has been pretty much said. You could be trying to gain credit as a mafia and could also be a mafia that doesn’t want to look like he’s jumping on the Fenix wagon. By posting this analys you’d be killing two birds with one stone. As I said though, this is only really slight suspicion (around 55-45 mafia-townie, in my eyes) and even I is more suspicous at the moment, given my inactivity on the past couple days.
Says no-lynch might be okay day 1. Leaving town with little to no information. Also again talking about the mafias situation, lynching wrong helps them get to a good start. Town not getting information day 1 and getting a free kill is also a damn good start. So much talk about the mafia situation makes me think you are mafia, also its very WIFOM.
Pressures sc2system with a vote, but mainly to get the attention off himself as he notes. Only mafia would be scared of having attention on themselves this early. A townie can get rid of it by just posting non scummy things.
Doesn't mention the scum slip by artanis. Probably because michael is working on his huge tunnelling case on it and doens't wanna be associated with that.
On March 24 2012 07:07 Ninja4ever. wrote: It seems that we don't really have any lurker left to be honest, with virtu posting soon every one seem to be active at least to some extent. We should really start voting based on who we find the most suspect. I already voted sc2system based on its inactivity, saying I'd switch to RoF if he'd become active enough. The thing is he did post more but in a very scumy way. (the confuse people part is very relevant). Therefore I'm keeping my vote for now. Although, as mementoss said (who looks the greenest of us all in my eyes) we really need to set on someone if we want to get a lynch
Everyone is active, there is no lurker, but i want to kill a lurker, I will vote sc2system. If sc2system is active I will switch to RoF bandwagon.
It seems like a mafia trait to say to not only say im green, but to agree with me, restate what I said, and over exhagerate how confirmed town I am, when I am only confirmed town from my own perspective.
Then comes in to say Artanis is 100% confirmed town after vigshot claim. He seems to be more focused on confirming town and getting rid of lurkers, than actual scum hunting.
On March 26 2012 03:52 Ninja4ever. wrote: So let's look at who was brought up recently : seviro, Michaelthe, Gossemerr and nova. I find the cases on michaelthe and gossemerr to be very weak, while the one on nova and Seviro to be clearly the most appealing, with nova being slightly more suspect. The thing being, I have a two pages short story to write for tommorow, so I won't be able to correctly expand on why as I lack in time. here are some explanations though :
Mementoss case on nova was great. At this point it doesn't matter even matter wether or not Mementoss is scummy, I find his explanation to be too good.
Seviro lack of content in his posts and overall undeciveness make him look like someone that want to add chaos to the thread, very scummy like.
Michaelthe, mostly suspected because he's " repeating too much stuff " which I find to be the least important tell when there's so few information to work with, in the beginning stage. He just seem like someone who doesn't have so much time and wanted to show he's active cause of the lurker pressure. Also suspected because he was quick to jump on artanis bandwagon, which was to me one of the two most logical thing to do at the time (the other one being voting against RoF)
Gossemerr : mostly suspected because he wanted to lynch sc2system but not vigkill him. Don't think it's telling, as artanis said the fact that sc2system turned out green makes it kinda irrevelant, and he might have simply thought that sc2system wasn't suspect enough to waste one vighit.
I won't be much more active tommorow sadly, but will be a lot more from monday night !
For now : ##Vote: Nova_Terra
But it can greatly change depending on nova's and seviro's defense.
Says something really similar to blueyD, Seviro and Nova cases are good while Goss Michael cases are bad. Leads the town into primarily focusing on those two cases for the day rather than exploring into Michael. Also agrees with my opinion once again. Stays away from bandwagoning the BlueyD Michael, Seviro vote.
Than uses Seviro's self vote with some WIFOM to jump on the Seviro bandwagon with his scum friends.
On March 27 2012 08:52 Ninja4ever. wrote: I decided to simply ignore Seviro self vote, it can equally mean he's a townie trying to prove he'll do anything for town or a scum that wants us to think that. Well, putting more thought into that, it's an interesting move. Look at what happened earlier : Seviro is suspected. He seems to be a rather agressive player, and answer with his read on everyone. One could expect he would totally go all out on the most suspicious person of the moment : Nova. So what does he say about him ?
Nova_TerraDon't know at all, I'd say slightly leaning scum mostly because of the meta difference from last game as stated by Mementoss. That doesn'T mean much since it was his first game but I feel that his defense have been pointlessly long. He is helping the discussion by asking question which is good but he seems scared when it is his turn to answer which is a scum behaviour, if you have nothing to hide you shouldn't be scared
This is weird to me. It looks like he's trying to avoid giving his opinion on Nova (slightly scum ? Remember that this is just after Nova's very weak defense), and prefer to go on the kinda weak michael case. Why would he avoid pointing his finger on Nova ? Well, I feel that :
if seviro is townie, he'd jump on Nova's neck asap if seviro is mafia and therefore know Nova is townie, he'd jump on that very suspicious case BUT if they're both mafia, it makes sense that seviro is trying to avoid as much contact with nova.
What kinda annoys me in this is the fact that nova didn't hesitate one second to say " I'll speak on saviro later " during his defense. May be they just didn't communicated before hand ? Seems kinda unlikely. May be nova wants to give seviro credit when he's lynched, seeing how strong his case was ? May be once again, but this become too WIFOM to be of any real interest.
What's happening now ? Seviro self vote. What's interesting is that it happens just after mementoss said something among the lines " well they might bu just 2 mafia busing each other " and here we go : not busing anymore.
All in all, it makes sense that they would be two mafias, which might be too good to be true. I'll personally go for seviro for two reasons : firstly he's the one with the most vote at the moment and I absolutly want a lynch. Secondly, there's basically two leaders here : mementoss and artanis. Artanis, the greenest of all people, say go for seviro. Then mementoss comes and tries basically a kinda last second and very slightly suspect switch. I trust artanis more, so I'll go with his plan, even though I think both are scum really. (nova and seviro huh ? not artanis and mementoss)
Also agrees with what both BlueyD and Michael said. They are both scum. Hmmm maybe trying to get us to tunnel Nova day 3? Basically also says, I'll go with Seviro now cause im a bandwagoner. If seviro was town, which he was, he shoulda been pushing whoever he thought was scum the hardest, not automatically going OMGUS to Nova to save his own ass, not voting himself.
Basically just a lot of agreeing, very safe passive play. A lot of fluff some WIFOM for ya.
WIFOM Says similar views to BlueyD that leads town into Seviro vs Nova all day. Waits to bandwagon Seviro
Questions/statements to ninja: Why don't you ever take the initiative to scum hunt? Why would you rather confirm townies all day? Why are you such a lurker? How come these similarities keep poking up with you BlueyD and Michael? What are your thoughts on Seviros final words/The michael Lynch day 3?
Overall Opinion The Passive Posting Scum Lurker
I don't give a shit if this gets me killed tonight if it can help the town get in the right direction for the win. Also, if I soak up a kill Artanis the confirmed townie stays alive which keeps the scum narrowed down. Was thinking of doing a shorter analysis on the other players leaning Town/Null for me. Might post later. Too tired now. I will at least give my list of most suspicious to least suspicious.
1. Michael 2. BlueyD 3. Ninja4ever 4. Nova Terra 5. Virtu 6. Gossemerr 7. Artanis 8. Mementoss
Hi. I am going to post my current thoughts on three players, two of which are extremely likely to be mafia. The last mafia which this analysis will not go over is Michaelthe, who should be lynched asap as hes like 95% mafia, at least in my book. So, to make a brief addition to my previous analysis of BlueyD here goes.
On March 25 2012 07:54 BlueyD wrote: Really, I've got an authoritative and these posts prove it? That's new to me. I would think someone trying to make a case that I've led anything here would pick the posts where I try to make people vote for a sc2system lynch based on reasoning that you may agree with or not. Not these 3 posts... All right, let me BlueyD-to-English translate these 3 for you...
1. Hi! I've never played mafia but I understand the game! Also we need a first post to get people talking! 2. Uh, guys, we've been talking about lynching lurkers day 1, but what if it turns out there's no lurkers to lynch? 3. Let's not act like we're starting anew and everyone's back to zero, guys, sc2system has still done crazy stuff we shouldn't forget.
If saying "we" a bunch of times is all it takes to be a leader now...
This is in response to my previous case against him where i said that his posts took an authoritative edge which it didnt deserve, and posted a couple examples, which i said. When i got this back, it was slightly scummy to me. why? well, he took a very defensive edge, and defends himself by saying that i didnt understand him (blueyd to english part) my post:
On March 25 2012 07:42 Nova_Terra wrote: Mementoss, what do you mean the posts i quoted didnt show much of taking leadership? for instance, "I'd like to see everyone at least post to confirm activity. Whoever doesn't start posting is already suspicious at worst, and useless at best. We don't want any mafia hiding among the lurkers. I'll personally support lynching an inactive unless something pretty big happens. " "This means we have to start thinking about who to lynch if there's no convenient lurker." " Of course we'll modify our opinions based on night 1 and day 2, but for the moment I still think my case against sc2system remains reasonably strong, and if there were a 2nd vote right now I'm sure he would get lynched on the spot." I may be misreading the second one wrong, but even so, the fact that he has been allowed to maintain an authoritative posture without pressure isnt good.
The bolded parts are ones that i consider to be using diction that is promoting your way of thought and decision making. However, BlueyD isnt taking charge. He says things in this manner and then sits on it for a while until he decides to post another opinion or response. he is easily taking some credit for things already said. Compare this to Mementoss, who is taking a leaders point of view but is actually supplementing it with lots and lots of posts and analysis. BlueyD Is not being a leader! BlueyD hasnt really posted much on big issues and situations, on the seviro/me vote, he had an early vote on seviro which he then just left there without further conversation for almost the whole voting time, and then on his further post just adds more to the anti seviro part, and the last on after that throws more suspicion onto seviro, and just adds in michaelthe being odd by making that move, yet doesnt do anything about it. Overall, BlueyD gives off the air of a leader without the posts and analysis to support it, and just isnt helpful and transparent enough when he does make his points. I would say that his play is slightly similar to mementosses play last game, where mementoss posted trying to seem helpful and confidant but didnt post much content and didnt do much on major topics. i would say he is extremely likely scum. 75-80%.
Now, as i believe i posted why i think gossemerr is inno, the only two people left who i feel could be the third and final mafia are either virtu or ninja4ever. so, to decide which one of them is probably mafia in my mind, i am going to compare their accomplishments as of yet in this game.
Virtu early game: virtu starts off by posting a couple 1-2 liners of fluff and then goes into standard agreement play where people start agreeing about day1 lurker lynches etc, and then he starts noting playstyles from last game, mine in particular. I can see how this could be useful, but as of yet he hadnt really posted anything helpful. he does randomly afk for 22 hours, which isnt good, but he does post a nice large analysis post on RoF/ System/ kinda ninja. does he use other peoples points? yes. does he effectively illustrate reasons why they are suspicious anyway? yes. still rather null on him. he switches around a few votes trying to get system lynched, but shifts back immediately to ensure majority stays. he seems like he is trying to be helpful. he provokes some discussion on gossemerr before having to stop due to a serious RL issue (and i really hope everything is okay). overall? He tries to be helpful, makes an analysis made from points that had been stated already, but provokes discussion. Virtu: 40% chance of being mafia
Ninja4ever. : Parties, gets drunk, misses a little bit of early game as result. not the best way to start off. then he posts some wifom vs lurkers and then a "case" on RoF where he pretty much says that we might want to think about a no-lynch day 1. what? we really dont get information from a no lynch. also, what a weird case. then blames it on everything had been said already? well then what is the point of a big post like this to agree and vote? then he posts like 7 times in 30 minutes to seem really active. most of which he shares his counter to artanis' logic and posts a couple 1 liners etc. to be fair, he hadnt done terribly early and posted his thoughts every so often. his next post posts thoughts on artanis' claim by saying hes pretty much 100% town. He is the first person to join onto mementoss' lynch nova train, in which he kisses up to memen to gain credit by saying that the case is great and all and that his case is perfect even if hes scummy. then he kinda soft defends michaelthe in the same post, saying that tyhe tell on michael was not very telling at all, etc. then he proceeds to go afk yet again, this time for an entire day. not cool,even if he had a reason. lastly he changes his vote to seviro with explanation. Ninja4ever.: 60% scum. One thing that is totally WIFOM that i just want to throw out is that Ninja really seemed like he wanted to vote me down for sure in the beginning of day 2. I came to the possibility that 1. mafia are splitting up votes which just makes sense and 2. he wanted to help the nova bandwagon along. why? quite possibly to get rid of the BlueyD case remnants and any suspicion on him. so, i think we should go for these three in order of suspiciousness, as we cannot lynch a townie.depending on defenses of course, the percentages might change. michaelthe is a totally safe day 3 lynch for sure.
Holy god, mementoss posted a freaking "whale" of a case while i spent a crapton of time trying to write that on an ipad. will look over it, but the three names i saw are pretty much my thoughts in order, so thats a good sign.
Mementoss, i know you are asking blueyd a question about who he thinks will be killed tonight, but i have a thought on who will die that i'd say if it doesnt disturb your case in any way. I dont want to provide a likely scum an answer should i tell you my thought on it?
I am almost sure who is going to get killed tonight. I stated in an earlier post. I just wanted BlueyD opinion. Gunna read your case now, Lol from an Ipad.
On March 27 2012 20:49 Mementoss wrote: We want people to keep the discussion up or the town is doomed. Don't worry about dieing, worry about saying something that leads to a scum kill after your death. Honestly, I don't think anyone should be worried about dieing. There are only two possible mafia kills in my eyes. 1. Artanis 2. Mementoss
Probably not me anymore because I am thought of as less green than before by a couple townies.
ahh, ok, thanks. I am going to wait until after the night post to say what my speculation on the mafia kill target is. it might provide information which could be falsified if i say it now. of course, there is a bit of WIFOM, but it is very likely to be true.
Reply to Seviros last post (guess you did now) Who do you think will die tonight/why? Who do you think is logically next to go after Michael flips scum?
Question 1: Done!
Question 2: Artanis seems to be the best pick at first: He’s confirmed townie, so he won’t get lynched. He won’t even get any votes from now until the end of the game (whereas mementoss might, but it's unlikely), so obviously he has to end up night-killed. But let’s look at the situation here...
-Most people see you as likely green, right below Artanis (though not confirmed) -Mafia see that a green (me) seems to be the town’s lynch target for day4, after michaelthe day3 -You’re the driving force (along with Nova, but people listen to you more) behind lynching me day4
It’s pretty easy for mafia to let Artanis live another night and hit you tonight instead, hoping the town lynches me in retaliation on day 4 (Day 3 is, of course, a lock for a michaelthe lynch imo). In fact, if it worked, that would win them the game right there, and I’m not getting the feeling my "I'm getting framed!" defense would work on the remaining townies. If somehow I didn’t get lynched day 4 after that, the town still would get your advice for one less day. You're not a good lynch target day 4 so letting you live provides them no advantage in terms of survival, either... So it’s one of you two, but if I were mafia I’d probably go for you now, and Artanis next night if they haven’t won yet.
In other words... townlynch michaelthe (5-2), scumhit mementoss (4-2), townlynch blueyd (3-2), scumhit whoever (2-2) and mafia wins. That would be my plan as scum.
Question 3: I’m going to assume that we lynch michaelthe on the next day and he’s scum, as the question asks me to, and go from there. That probably is what will happen, anyway. I’ll go by elimination first, then see who remains...
- Not you or Artanis, you’re the greenest non-confirmed in my eyes and Artanis is 100% confirmed town. - Not Nova for reasons explained in previous post: michaelthe wouldn’t try to switch a Seviro lynching towards Nova if Nova is scum and Seviro is town, so that makes Nova a lot more likely to be town. - Yeah, not me. Call me biased!
So that leaves ninja4ever, Gossemerr, and Virtu as options for day 4 after the day 3 michaelthe lynch, from my point of view anyway. Time to look at all 3! I’ll post more later on.
I'm pretty much getting behind Mementoss' list at the moment. I find the chance that he actually is mafia quite low at this point, and his cases seem to be solid. If for some reason Mementoss gets killed at night instead of me (which I highly doubt), I'll still be advocating the list of Mementoss.
Also, to town: Don't get too worried about WIFOM regarding mafia. They have no choice but to lynch michaelthe the next day because of the massive suspicion on him. Even if he gets a quick 7 votes that doesn't mean that he has to be town. I find Ninja4ever's case stronger than virtu's as well given virtu is still trying to put the effort in to help town, clearly still invested in the game despite family troubles and came to vote for the lynch. This alone makes him fairly green in my book as I don't think you'd view voting on the lynch is as important when scum.
My only sidenote is that I'm still torn between BlueyD and Nova. Both have some good and some bad, but there's something about Bluey that does give me the feel that he's town though I can't quite put my finger on it.
The Controller (Tries to control the town's opinion) - This case Michael (SNMM VIII - Mementoss) The Semi-Contributer (Pops in with a opinion when its convienent) - This case BlueyD>Nova>>Gossemer (SNMM VIII - Janaan) The Semi-Lurker (Barely ever posts, but posts just enough) - This case Ninja4ever or Virtu (SNMM VIII - Cosine)
A part of your analysis is based on the fact that mafia follows this team distribution. How do they do that exactly ? They meet up and decide « hey I’m gonna be the controller, you the semi-contributer and you the semi-lurker » ? No, your profils are so generic, they basically cover the whole town, basically any player is either one of those three profiles, and mafia can be any combination of the three really. The fact that in your past games mafia more or less followed the one of each combination isn’t statically relevant AT ALL. There’s just too much variance in one’s personality to give mafia a specific organization.
Why are you such a lurker?
First, I like lurking really. I’m on TL.net for years and you can see here my number of posts. Never posted much in my life. That’s how I am, but I do enjoy reading a lot. When I saw the mafia thread ~ten days ago, I thought « damn this is fun ». The analysis, the suspicion, everything looked exciting and I promptly joined. May be too promptly? The fact is, I’m busy with school, busy with homework projects to do, busy with social life. I won’t expand on that since those are things you can’t verify, but what I mean is what I’m doing is basically the best I can offer, and I’m really sorry about that. I thought about asking getting replaced, but then I told myself “why signing up then ?” and I’m actually having a lot of fun reading the analysis, the strategies, waiting for someone to flip either green or red. So I decided to go on, with the best activity I can offer. If you think that isn't enough, I'll still ask for a replacement (if possible).
Now something you’ll find interesting. You like meta Mementoss, let me give you some of that. I actually already played one mafia game, a long time ago. Guess what ? I lurked HARD. Guess what ? I never went scum hunting. One last guess ? I was town. It was 3 / 4 years ago I’ll give you that, and my play was awful but I never played after that so I don’t think my play style could change so much. Funny thing, at the time I was already starting with excuses on why I wasn’t posting and stuff, which I still do.
Why would you rather confirm townies all day? Why don't you ever take the initiative to scum hunt?
Because it takes a lot of time. Well that explanation is just as simple as that. I Didn’t have a lot of it lately, and looking for every details of someone’s post is LONG, especially when you have to put it into english for a non-native. I’ll actually have more time on Tuesday. I’ll put my scum hunting hat at this time (if I get to it, ofc)
How come these similarities keep poking up with you BlueyD and Michael?
How is that bad ? I thought nova and seviro were the most suspect at the time. So suspect both of them could be mafia. They happened to think the same. I still think nova is suspect by the way. I still fail to see how a few good posts washed him from all the suspicion he was under. And yeah kind of wifom incoming but I feel mafia always taking the same boat is the MOST STUPID thing they could ever do.
My defense isn't finished yet, i'll go on tommorow (Took a long time to write that already and it's getting late). Posting it anyway so you know im aware of the situation.. Don't jump on me for not speaking about michael lynch and seviro's post, I'll do it tommorow.
On March 27 2012 20:49 Mementoss wrote: We want people to keep the discussion up or the town is doomed. Don't worry about dieing, worry about saying something that leads to a scum kill after your death. Honestly, I don't think anyone should be worried about dieing. There are only two possible mafia kills in my eyes. 1. Artanis 2. Mementoss
Probably not me anymore because I am thought of as less green than before by a couple townies.
Um, how would you know this? Also, yeah that underlined bit may not be so pro-town, but I remember last game where someone said that they were going to wait until after the night kill to post their case so they would not get killed (I don't remember who). So, basically I just meant don't be afraid to post, because we really need it. Also, why have you totally lost all suspicion in Nova? I have my reasons, but I will post them after you.
Moving on I would like to add some stuff on michaelthe:
On March 27 2012 14:16 michaelthe wrote: Player List
1.) Mementoss 2.) Seviro - a Vanilla Townie - Lynched day 2 3.) Artanis[Xp] 4.) sc2system - a Vanilla Townie - Murdered Night 1 5.) virtu 6.) Nova_Terra 7.) michaelthe 8.) Rise Of Fenix - a Vanilla Townie - Lynched day 1 9.) Gossemerr 10.) Ninja4ever. 11.) BlueyD 12.) froggynoddy - a Vanilla Townie - Murdered Night 1
Crazy. Self voting and going afk made it look clearly like a mafia move, but there will be plenty of time for that later.
We will most likely be at 4 Town 3 Mafia tomorrow (pending vet/doc chance).
This is a MYLO tomorrow, and will be even if we hit a mafia each lynch, assuming they get a townie each night.
Forget single cases and single suspicions. We need to each go over everyone with a fine tooth comb.
I have a busy day tomorrow, but will try and get something out before the end of night.
What the heck? Why even post this, all useless, especially the list. And plenty of time for going over Seviro's self-vote later? Why? There is not point in dwelling on this when we could be finding your buddies. Now for the bold part. What does this even mean? We need to lynch a scum first before we can connect them to others. Why waste time going over everyone when we can make the strongest case and get a scum lynch, then move forward.
By townies I meant the people I am leaning town towards are the ones at least analysing me. Worded poorly, Seemingly townies, or just others woulda been better. Only people I can think of off the top of my head to point out anything I said that seems off, or inconsistent are Seviro (town) Artanis (almost confirmed town). And I guess now you. So it was somewhat accurate as one actually flipped green. Mafia seem to be avoiding me, as I will be a night kill eventually and they don't want to be negatively connected to me in any way.
Going out for the night. Be back tomorrow. Hopefully alive.
I'm actually fairly worried because the Mafia team seems to be getting away with everything, yet our suspects are the ones who didn't seem to have much of a clue (no offense). This is all WIFOM, but Mafia has been playing too well so far leading me to believe one of either Gossemerr or Mementoss has to be mafia, perhaps even both, but in that case I'm pretty sure we've lost already. The first day shot was someone who didn't post a lot but was clearly townie to people who were paying attention. The massive amounts of pushing and pulling back and forth on the lynch day does give me the idea we're being played with, and I'd only really give Mementoss, Gossemerr and perhaps BlueyD the skills in this game to really have pulled that off.
I think I am safe from the mafia kill tonight as I am a lynch target for tomorrow, but I did want to get something out tonight, just in case. If I live, I will go each person very carefully, but if I do die, I want to have this here.
I have stated, and I think my record shows, that I have tried to be objective and analytical. I want to make my case, but I want to respond to Mementoss first. As he systematically goes through my play, I will simply do the same, explaining my actions.
Opening Play My first move was to post a list of inactives, and post an ultimatum to force them to post. The town agreed that we needed to pressure, but we still had 4 people posting little to no content. This was a simple play, and if any of them failed, a simple vote would force the person to talk even more. This play was only somewhat successful, fenix posted immediately, but with no real content, and I think sc2system and ninja posted “im drunk” and “im just waking up.”
People have pointed out that three of the four on the list are now dead townies. I have responded to this before, but I will again, its very simple. All four were on the list for being inactive, two of the three were killed for being inactive/bad content. The reasons are the same for being killed and on the list, but this is not a casual relationship. I don't know what else to say about this, the correlation is clear, but its clearly not causal...
Artanis Case I believe that day 1 cases are, for the most part, weak. But I also have stated I think that this slip was huge. Again, every single strategy post on a wiki or thread here has stated this is the biggest scum slip. In fact, Artanis clearly admitted this, and also knew it was still a major issue going into day 2 which prompted his vig shot.
Objectively, going after this slip was obvious. I think its only due to the terrible play of our day 1 lynch targets that Artanis lived. Again, this was simple, analytical play. If I need to post Artanis' defense, you can see it was weak (since the slip was so big).
Seviro The reason Seviro was on my radar, and in part why we hit a chaotic few hours at the end of day 2 is simple: Seviro did a terrible job at responding to pressure on him. Artanis made a day 1 case, which again, as a day 1 case, was weak. But Seviro came out swinging with a chainsaw defense. That put him on my radar. In his defense, Seviro pretty much said “its not chainsaw! I defended myself THEN attacked him”.
Despite this, I actually spent more of my time trying to figure out why Goss would not like the vig hit that gave us a confirmed townie. Near the time to vote, I swapped to Seviro from Nova. I did this just shortly after Mementoss swapped and Seviro self-voted. I thought Mementoss would swap back, as he seemed to be leaning nova all day. But then I had to figure out Seviro's play.
The ONLY thing that made sense to me is that Nova and Seviro were both scum. If Seviro simply didn't do that(self vote and AFK), he would probably be alive right now. Instead, he literally went afk as the s*** hit the fan regarding his actions.
I posted that as the likely scenario and its clear everyone agreed. We had a 100% lynch on Seviro. Again, Seviro has had terrible reactive play, and this completely sealed his coffin. Seviro posted, with his last living post, a case against me. His play was EXTREMELY reactive all game long. I addressed my actions on the end of day 2, the real issue is why Seviro waited until 30 minutes or so until voting closed to post anything. He could have saved himself if he were there just a few hours earlier, instead of going AFK... Seviro was too reactive, that was clear from day 1, I think his last case is just another example of that.
The ClusterF*** of End of Day 2 I have already addressed how this happened. Unfortunately, I unwittingly contributed to it due to Seviro's bad play of going AFK and making me think him clearly scum. No one had a better reason as to why Seviro would play that way, that is clear by the vote going the way it did, everyone was convinced. Unfortunately, Seviro just made a terrible play that made no sense.
A good question for the end of day 2 is who else contributed to the clusterf***. Obviously, Seviro would have prevented it by simply not self-voting. But there was one other big player, which brings me to my current case:
Mementoss One of the things I noticed early on is that people commented on his role of moving the town's opinion, as mafia, from last game. Many people think Mementoss is very heavily town, precisely doing this this game as well. He even called a mafia role as “controller”, something that, if he is mafia this game, he has done well by controlling the belief that he is town.
As for last night, he swapped from Nova to Seviro about 15 minutes before my post. He was gunning for Nova all day, but ended up swapping to Seviro. His post made him seem very on the fence about who to vote for, so I thought it was clear he would swap back to Nova without much issue. At this point, I expected Mementoss to swap back. However, instead, he kept the chaos going.
His next post contributed to the chaos, and kept people guessing. He cast doubt on my logic, heavily contributing to everyone's confusion. He had about 3 posts doing this.
However, when it became clear that people were on board with my analysis, he retracted:
On March 27 2012 09:00 Mementoss wrote: Yeah I kinda freaked out, in a moment where I was just mad when I seen what was happening. It was most likely it was a lapse of bad judgement by michael and I overreacted. I was looking far too into WIFOM at the end because I was so close in between who I wanted Nova or Seviro, it ended up confusing me even more.
On top of that I looked like an idiot, cause instead of straight analysis I have been doing I was doing more of what if's piled on top of what if's with crazy master plans. I will go back to what works, good plain old logic. Depending on the flip/if we get a replacement will decide how our night discussion goes. I'm done posting in this game for tonight, I will come back to check the flip.
He even posts here that he would have been willing to vote Nova. Again, if Seviro didn't play so bad, and Mementoss didnt play the way he did, we would have had an easy Nova lynch.
The confusion was heavily caused by Seviro's odd move followed by AFK and my analysis, but Mementoss was the other major contributing factor!
I am able to defend my actions clearly, by posting them as objective analysis of the actions of the few hours. Mementoss, on the other hand, basically posted: “meh, yeah, I could have voted either way and I also overreacted”.
Confusion heavily aids scum. I contributed to the confusion purely due to Seviro's absurd play and my attempt to analyze it. Why did Mementoss contribute to the chaos?
Brief Recap: - He has people convinced his is town, this is precisely what he did last game as scum. - He heavily contributed to the chaos of last night, without any reason to do so! - I just read Goss posting the slip of Mementoss calling people “a couple of townies”. Wow. His response: “people leaning town by my analysis, goodnight!” Dont let him bury this slip!
I think the Scum are: Mementoss, Nova, and one other.
Before we forget, let's remember the suspicions of the fallen townies. The benefit of this is that it's guaranteed not to intentionally lead to wrong targets. Since so many posts have been made I'm really not sure of anyone anymore, so I'd rather go by anecdotals. Post in spoilers; + Show Spoiler +
On March 27 2012 10:50 Seviro wrote: OK, I don'T have much time before my lynch so I'll try to make it fast and clear. Maybe you'll give more credit to what say when you'll stop assuming i'm scum.
I'll give you my present thought on the mafia team since it is the last time I can make any claim.
First thing first, based on the recents post, i'm less and less sure that Nova is a scum. The main point against him is his meta shift from last game which don'T say much since it was his first game and in the everyone was thinking he was a scum because of his play style. I'll say there's 60% chance of him flipping scum.
My main suspect at 95% sure in my opinion is, as you may know, Micaelthe. I said about all I had to say about him but i'll talk about his vote switch. He switched his vote now when it was clear for everyone that I was being lynched. I think that since my death can tell a lot about him (see Mementoss post about it), it was best for him to kill nova since his death doesn't tell anything about him. Also, he add that he'd want at least 6 vote so that scum don'T ninja switch and cancel the lynch which doesn'T make sense since there was 6 vote on me at the time. And for those who think that he wouldn't have made a case on me if he was scum, a lot of people were already suspicious about me so he just tried to get the train rolling (in which he succeeded).
My second suspect which I am 80% sure is BlueyD. As Nova mentionned, after a good start of trying to get discussion roll, he kinda fell out of sight and didn't add anything useful. He did follow the bandwagon on me and nova, adding that I was taking credit for something that I didn'T did, which I refuted by adding the 3 post where I was actually doing what I was claiming. Post at which he answered by:
Oh, I really just think now that Fenix is playing poorly or just doesn't care enough to put enough time on the game. But I'll give him the chance to step up his play because I really think he is town.
I think that if he was mafia, his fellow scum would have helped him in the background so that he don't look so suspicious. For now I think he is just bad and as I said, i'm willing to give him a chance to step up his play. I shouldn't have said that I think that he is really town, more like I don't see him being more scummy than anyone else right now.
Yeah I know, I just feel like it's too obvious to be true. I might be wrong tho.
Okay, so he plays poorly, looks suspicious, and feels like obvious scum to you. Great defense! It doesn't feel like you're defending him at all to me, since you bring up something I can bold in every single post. I'm not at 1/1 or at 1/4 now, I'm at 4/4.
Truth is when someone looks this bad, we lynch him to know what he is. That's how the game is played. He was a decent lynch target from the start and the only defense you could have brought out was "someone else looks even worse", as I did.
Never try to defend me, by the way.
Post at which I didn't respond since I though it was obviously fake fact but some people seemed to agree with it so here is some clarification.
Oh, I really just think now that Fenix is playing poorly or just doesn't care enough to put enough time on the game. But I'll give him the chance to step up his play because I really think he is town.
I think that if he was mafia, his fellow scum would have helped him in the background so that he don't look so suspicious. For now I think he is just bad and as I said, i'm willing to give him a chance to step up his play. I shouldn't have said that I think that he is really town, more like I don't see him being more scummy than anyone else right now.
Yeah I know, I just feel like it's too obvious to be true. I might be wrong tho.
See, when we bold what actually matters it takes another sense. But I don'T blame you, it was a trend in this game to take my word out of context and ignoring important part of my posts.
Now for the third, I think he is among Virtu or Ninja4ever. I don'T have anything to back my claim but I feel like they are lurking too easily.
By the way mafia, you did a great job of making me feel scummy, so great job in fact that the vote is unanimous so good job on that.
With that said, don't take what I said here for the truth but please investigate enough to make yourself an opinion. with 3 scum and 4 townie left after the night, the bandwagon can easily go in a wrong way.
I put my fate into your hand Town Fellow. Avenge my death and win this for me please.
Cheers, Good luck Good game, I follow this closely and I hope my death won't be in vain.
I don'T think I'll post again so peace out, love you all :D (except scum team obiously).
Adding to that, I'd like to point out again I find Ninja4ever more suspicious than Virtu simply based on that Virtu came back to vote despite family issues, which I find to be more likely for town than for mafia. It's mildly WIFOM, but so is everything in this game. That doesn't mean Ninja4ever is neccesarily mafia, but it does make Virtu greener than him.
At this point I'm fairly convinced that Michaelthe has to die. Regarding MichaelThe's recent post: Not impressed. His style of play from the start of the game to the middle of the game changed so much that I have to presume there's been some communication between him and the mafia team that has made him shape up his play. I'm pretty sure that he knows he's doomed, so the reason for his post can only be to cover up the mafia. This leads me to believe either Mementoss or Nova. I highly doubt both of them as that'd be too much of a risk, but I find one of them being Mafia fairly likely. I find Mementoss somewhat hard to read but he does have a green aura around him. The two big red exclamation marks though are the response to Michaelthe's post, which he answered to by indicating he made a lapse of judgement; 1.
omfg, michael that was the stupidest move ever if you are town. Seriously, there is no town logic behind it. I thought of what you said too, that last minute mafia could vote switch for the no lynch due to us not having virtu, but guess what. It would be fucking stupid because it would bring all eyes on them and we could connect the dotes and kill there whole team in a couple swipes. As of now switching your vote makes a no-lynch more likely so you completely contradicted yourself. I am so confused right now, GJ mafia your doing your job.
Alright, michael is now officially looking scum for me.
Even though we do think michael is mafia, his post was such a clear bad play that I find it highly unlikely it was a mafia ploy. If anything, I think it might've been double mindgames now (a plan so silly they can't help but think I'm town) which would be fairly ingenous. 2. Gossmerr pointed out that Mementoss is making connections between players, whereas earlier in the game he said:
On March 22 2012 23:38 Mementoss wrote: Another thing I learned from last game and I think Nova_Terra will agree with me is, making connections (or anti-connections) between players is absolutely useless until the town flips its first scum. Keep track of it for all means, just no need to post it until scum is flipped and it can be used with case analysis (can't stand alone as a case). Cause you can literally find these connections between most players, its just the nature of the game, and the town trying to work as a team.
A clear contradiction. Mementoss, please explain. These posts are the chink in Mementoss' otherwise good posting record, but in general he's been a lot more helpful than Nova, so I'd suspect Nova more. The amount of effort Mementoss also puts into his posts still at this point in the game seem more like a desperate attempt to still get victory out of the claws of defeat rather than a play you really need to do as Mafia at this point. The chance of Town still coming back into this is fairly unlikely (though possible, keep your chins up guys!) which means Mafia would most likely go into minimal posting mode as to not screw a win up.
BlueyD's case is shown excellently in Mementoss' post. Also suggesting that I might survive the night seems a bit silly, as I feel there's an almost zero chance on that. I also don't like the suggestion of lynching immediately tomorrow as it's MYLO tomorrow, but I'll expand on that a bit later in this post. He's also agreed with michael a lot and although that doesn't neccesarily say everything, it does raise some flags as Michael was still in the clear during all of this.
Nova_Terra has been all over the place, earlier mostly posting short responses to everything, and later on started analyzing a bit more. This change in behaviour is suspicious at least, even though it was called for, any behavior change during a game of Mafia should be watched closely. The activity of all of Nova's posts also cluttered up the thread quite a bit and confusion is good for Mafia. I'll give him points for not immediately jumping on my case though, and he's the suspect I'm the least sure of. Given his many opinions, this case will become more clear as townies die at night as he had a lot of opinions and is therefore the best candidate to lynch last.
Gossemerr seems fairly green, though somewhat inactive. He scrutinizes posts but uses good logic for it. He hasn't posted too much though which is a shame as especially now town will really need him to be active. I wouldn't blindly trust him just yet, not until some more analysis is done. What he has said however makes sense so I'm leaning town on him.
Ninja4ever I have absolutely no read on. He simply hasn't put in the effort to really analyze cases. He did oppose Nova_Terra fairly early when Seviro was on the chopping block which leads me to believe that if Nova is mafia, Ninja is not, and the opposite. This because Nova was not even close to getting lynched and his case put him on the map. Since if we mislynch we lose anyway, the benefit we get out of this knowledge is that if Nova flips red, Ninja is probably not mafia, and the other way around. Plays fairly defensive and reactionary, but so did Seviro and I feel it's more a preferred style then a mafia tell.
MYLO: Tomorrow will be MYLO. The usual standard during MYLO is to not lynch anyone so that less suspects are left. Given that there will be no confirmed townies left after my death, I'd advocate for a no lynch and get more information out, and analyze with the thought of MichaelThe flipping scum. The benefit of waiting a night is that one potential townie will die. The field being thinned out is a good thing in this case since it won't lose us a day. MYLO is the only situation in which it's a good idea to no lynch, and I advocate everyone to not lynch during the next day.
So, who do we lynch Master Artanis? Well, let's start with MichaelThe. Follow it up with BlueyD. And end on Nova_Terra
Those are my three biggest suspects right now. Nova's lynch is the most meta though, so having more dead players could provide additional information regarding whether it's the right choice.
And with that, I must depart this town for the gates of Valhalla.
Mafia Win condition- The mafia wins when they equal or outnumber the remaining townies or nothing can keep that from happening.
Right now its 5-3, in about 10 minutes it will be 4-3. We cannot no-lynch or town loses. Since there is a case on me now, I think mafia will definitly kill Artanis, gg, you were helpful overall to the town. Michael will then try to push me tommorrow. We need three correct lynches in a row. Focus on them one scum at a time. We can do this. Will brush my teeth and come back to see if I am actually still alive later. Will reply to posts on me tommorrow if nessecary.
Things are getting weirder, a planet zooms by the lab, explodes in a kaleidoscope of color, and then reassembles itself again before exploding. A green and blue planet flashes into view, and then breaks up into rocks as it surface boils with mushroom clouds and then cracks, into wide rifts.
Suddenly the lab is right before the walls of a city, in a desert, around it swarm hundreds of what can only be zombies, inside two men crackle maniacally, before quickly vanishing from view. The time anchor glows, more and more intensely, the annoying hum has grown louder. Outside, more and more events flash by, a spire of cold iron with a thousand thorns loaded with writhing victims, before sinking back into the earth and becoming a town.
Something must happen soon, things are getting... stranger. By the time the furor at the outside events die out, someone is missing. Gossemerr was missing. Only his skeleton was found in his room, his flesh apparently rotted off, the only evidence of the cause of death a rusted handle, apparently belonging to a knife.
Gossemerr the Vanilla Townie has been murdered! Day 3, yadda, yadda, yadda, 48 hours to lynch!
just woke up and i wanted to see who died really badly. Why? because i had a little theory that might help if we have any blue role left. which is still a low chance. BUT. I was thinking what if mafia HAD a power role. if they did, its quite probable that we had at least 2 blues, as there was no power role for mafia last game and there was 1 blue. we already have one this game, and he is almost confirmed town. I started to think about who the mafia would kill, and i rested on mementoss or artanis, being the most pro town. BUT. if the mafia thought there could be a medic, those would be the two LEAST wanted targets as they are most likely to be healed. and the only reason that mafia would suspect a medic is because they may have a power role. And who died? gossemerr. Therefore, if there is any blue left, pretty much meaning a DT, please note there could be a godfather or a framer. As i am onboard with the michaelthe lynch, i will start off and end this day right. ##Vote: michaelthe
Okay, I said I’d post analysis on ninja, Virtu and Gossemer. Gossemer is dead, though... I’ll see what I can tell from his death.
Before that, though, let’s get this out of the way:
##Vote: Michaelthe
---------- On ninja4ever:
I mostly want him to stop parroting and post some analysis of his own at this point. He’s been lurking and just putting his vote on who’s the next lynch all game long, and getting away with it. I add that I don’t have to be scum in order for his parroting behavior to be suspicious, he just has to know who’s scum and who’s townie, and jump on whatever bandwagon targets the wrong people... which is apparently those I’m in, every single time. -_-
Yeah, so this has all been said. Sue me. Still I have a question, and I hope he finally replies with something worth reading... To ninja: Assuming we get a scum today, who would you then lynch day 4, and why?
My take on ninja4ever: null leaning scum. ----------
On Virtu:
Our other lurker. I went through the whole filter looking to see what it looked like... The last reason for his inactivity seems believable, he even asked a mod if he could be subbed out. And then he came back for the vote. There was no comment on seviro/nova we can work with.
There was a bit of an inconsistency no one caught early on to justify his inactivity, though, but it’s not enough to build a case around it. See these two posts for yourself: MLG is good for activity, then it’s bad.
Nice to see this started before MLG weekend, will be watching plenty of MLG so should have time to be active.
I'm slightly more inactive than I'd like to be, I joined after GMarshal said that we most likely wouldn't start until after the end of MLG under the presumption that this would be the case, but as it's started before, MLG has taken up most of my attention so far.
Go figure... I like that he’s targeted guys other than those we ended up lynching, though, and the MLG thing seems very minor to me. He seems to have his own opinion. He’s less suspicious than ninja4ever to me.
----------
This was to be Gossemer’s section, but now he’s dead.
Here was how I thought night lynches would go: Artanis would be night hit first and mementoss next night, or the opposite. Either way, they would be the next 2 night hits. If somehow things didn’t go this way, I figured Artanis would die and mementoss would live, in which case I would get to ask mementoss why he’s still alive. Until then he seemed to me like dead-man-walking, an assessment he agreed with for a time before changing his mind, so I figured I’d let it go and hold off on analysis since he would likely die in the next 2 nights and our only day target before that was already decided.
Turns out both are still alive after night 1, which was totally unexpected for me. I’m going to say that this is because both are useful for mafia’s purposes right now, whereas Gossemer wasn’t. Both are aiming for michaelthe, then for me – If you’re mafia, this point of view is a very useful one to keep alive at least until more people are convinced, since I’m town. (I realize this won’t convince anyone, but I’m just telling you what’s running through my head at the moment.) Gossemer was aiming for michaelthe but didn’t comment on me after the Seviro lynch, preferring to aim for... mementoss.
I don’t have a case on mementoss right now, but he’s back on the suspicions list. I’ll read what others have written on him again tomorrow, go through filters, etc... See if the case stands up or doesn’t at all.
EBWOP: Artanis, why do you think that i should be the third lynch? I was the first to call out blueys behavior and i *may* have tunneled him earlier. Wouldnt it make more sense for the third lynch to go on ninja/virtu?
Alright I don't really understand the night kill, so let me go through a couple situations I thought of. WIFOM.
Virtu seemed like the obvious pick. Why wouldn't you want to kill someone thought up as "confirmed" townie? This label helps town eliminate someone who is off there radar for scum hunting.
A) Virtu's claim is fake, and/or mafia had a night vig for 2kp night one somehow. It seemed weird how the kill flavour were both identical. -> Our whole game thus far has been based on this one claim, it's closed setup and we have no idea how many of what roles there are. It seems like a mistake in a closed game to make this assumption. However, it is too risky to go back on what we have already decided to be truth. Therefore, if A) is true we the town have already lost.
B) Mafia thinks we have a Medic. -> I don't why they think we have a medic but if they did they would know if they went after the obvious kills pointed out by the town the medic would have a 50% chance of saving them, putting them in an awkward situation. Mafia went with an unobvious choice to solidify there lead.
C) Mafia is trying to confuse us. -> Mafia was in trouble after at least 2/3 of there members were labelled suspicious. Leading some sort of propaganda that puts doubt on Artanis a bit, but more than not me, Mementoss. I have been getting some heat lately, and Seviro mentioned a quick point out on some inconsistencies, and then was lynched. Gossemerr, mentioned me, and then was night killed. Its a little WIFOM that they are trying to put in the back of peoples minds to try and strengthen that I am scum. Most likely option.
I am so mad at myself for missing this before Gossemerrs death.
" Also, why have you totally lost all suspicion in Nova? I have my reasons, but I will post them after you." -It would have been a good opinion to hear. -_-. To answer it now, I haven't lost all suspicion in Nova, I just find him less suspicious than the ones I labelled above. I am keeping on an eye on him, but will see if I find anything on him after we kill michael.
On March 28 2012 20:49 Mementoss wrote: Alright I don't really understand the night kill, so let me go through a couple situations I thought of. WIFOM.
Virtu seemed like the obvious pick. Why wouldn't you want to kill someone thought up as "confirmed" townie? This label helps town eliminate someone who is off there radar for scum hunting.
A) Virtu's claim is fake, and/or mafia had a night vig for 2kp night one somehow. It seemed weird how the kill flavour were both identical. -> Our whole game thus far has been based on this one claim, it's closed setup and we have no idea how many of what roles there are. It seems like a mistake in a closed game to make this assumption. However, it is too risky to go back on what we have already decided to be truth. Therefore, if A) is true we the town have already lost.
My Claim? please clarify then I can respond whilst I have time.
My sister works as a paramedic, in the early hours of Sunday night she was called out to an incident in the town centre, she and her fellow co-worker were attacked by a 'gang' of male youths and left hospitalized in quite a bad way. I've spent the last 2 days with her and she's stabalized, back at work today with 2 days of work to catch up on, when I get home tonight I should have time to make a post or two.
After explaining this to the powers that be I was asked if I could continue playing instead of a replacement being used, which I agreed to. I'll just say it now, I'm Vanilla Town. I won't be able to contribute as much as I'd like to and I don't want my unfortunate situation to affect the Town's chances of winning by being lynched due inactivity. At the very least i'll make sure I don't get modkilled, at the most i'll analyze and post about everyone still alive. Extremely sad my first game of mafia has been like this, been lurking reading full mafia games for a while.
I have a lot of reading to catch up on from the thread and I'll try and post my thoughts tonight, Town we can still win this with some good play.
On March 28 2012 20:49 Mementoss wrote: A) Artanis' claim is fake, and/or mafia had a night vig for 2kp night one somehow. It seemed weird how the kill flavour were both identical. -> Our whole game thus far has been based on this one claim, it's closed setup and we have no idea how many of what roles there are. It seems like a mistake in a closed game to make this assumption. However, it is too risky to go back on what we have already decided to be truth. Therefore, if A) is true we the town have already lost.
There is no chance that my claim can be fake at this point unless we have a vigilante that still hasn't spoken up, which I would find extremely unlikely given that it'd be a 1 for 1 trade at worst the previous day. In a closed setup, all potential roles are given and there is no additional Mafia kill role listed. It's also said that the kill flavor wouldn't provide any clues.
This is a semi-open setup, that is, exact role counts will not be known, but the possible roles will be known. All roles presented here are not necessarily in the game, but no roles not included here are present.
Regarding virtu, sucks to hear man, best of luck to your sister.
Regarding the night kill: The only thing that explains it is if my analysis is correct and they want to create doubt. If they killed me, this would have no influence on Mementoss' position, nor that of mine since it'd prove my analysis. By killing Gossemerr they're creating doubt on Mementoss, plus Gossemerr was a good townie that just didn't post too much. They could've feared that he'd expand on his analysis and lock down on the mafia players.
With michaelthe, I'm pretty sure we have a mafia at this point. I don't think Mafia would be trying to pull tricks on us if he wasn't, because they know it's still neccesary. However, the only one that was really pushing against Mementoss was Gossemerr, which despite all WIFOM should be taken seriously.
@Nova_Terra; I'm advocating your lynch depending on who dies. I'd expand on that but that could make mafia change their targets based on if you're mafia or not, so I'll let the town decide on that since I'm pretty sure I won't be alive for the final lynch, if we get that far. You may have accused BlueyD, but it was weak at best and there was no real risk of him getting lynched at that point. The overall posting record is more important.
Obviously there is a lot of suspicion on me today. If anyone has anything new to ask, I will continue to offer more. I think my reasons for every move were clear. I will re-summarize later.
But right now, we should look at the night kill.
Mafia has two options with night kills: 1) Kill someone random. The idea here is to give zero info. I think this was the case on night one. 2) Kill someone posting content. This is made to throw off the town. It adds a bit of confusion. This seems to be the case tonight.
Right now, there are two questions: 1) Why was Goss targeted? 2) Why WASNT Mementoss or Artanis targeted.
There are only a few things that come to mind for Goss: I attacked him some on day 2. He was then suspicious of me. He made claims against me and mementoss:
On March 27 2012 12:24 Gossemerr wrote: I need to post something before I go away for a while, as it REALLY bothers me:
On March 26 2012 21:38 Mementoss wrote: If we lynch Seviro and Seviro flips town, Michael would be highly suspicious and so would Nova Terra. If we lynch Seviro and Seviro flips scum, Michael would be off my radar, and Nova would still remain suspicious.
Mementoss did this EXACT SAME thing last game. For those of you whom didn't read it: He was a scum that game, and he basically said this "either Seviro (who was also in that game, was town) or Gossemerr (me, was also town) are scum, but NOT both." Basically it meant that if we followed his logic then we would lose two townies. It so happened that we lynched Seviro and the game ended because of mod kills, but you all should get my point. I don't like this shit. Its like adding connections where they should not be, in order to influence votes. Here look at this earlier quote:
On March 22 2012 23:38 Mementoss wrote: Another thing I learned from last game and I think Nova_Terra will agree with me is, making connections (or anti-connections) between players is absolutely useless until the town flips its first scum. Keep track of it for all means, just no need to post it until scum is flipped and it can be used with case analysis (can't stand alone as a case). Cause you can literally find these connections between most players, its just the nature of the game, and the town trying to work as a team.
He clearly states that we should not be adding connections above, very clearly actually. Also he did this same thing last game at the same time, when the next day would be a lynch or lose situation. If we lynch wrong D3 we lose already, unless there are more blues (but I don't think so as there was only one last game). notice how, Seviro flipped town.. If he is scum, this would be another smart play to make sure the game is won. All of us remaining town really need to read and analyze tonight. If you are scared to post because you might be murdered, just post with like <5 minutes left or whatever before the night post (I will probably do the same in case I die tomorrow as well).
##FoS: Mementoss
On March 28 2012 07:35 Gossemerr wrote:
Moving on I would like to add some stuff on michaelthe:
On March 27 2012 14:16 michaelthe wrote: Player List
1.) Mementoss 2.) Seviro - a Vanilla Townie - Lynched day 2 3.) Artanis[Xp] 4.) sc2system - a Vanilla Townie - Murdered Night 1 5.) virtu 6.) Nova_Terra 7.) michaelthe 8.) Rise Of Fenix - a Vanilla Townie - Lynched day 1 9.) Gossemerr 10.) Ninja4ever. 11.) BlueyD 12.) froggynoddy - a Vanilla Townie - Murdered Night 1
Crazy. Self voting and going afk made it look clearly like a mafia move, but there will be plenty of time for that later.
We will most likely be at 4 Town 3 Mafia tomorrow (pending vet/doc chance).
This is a MYLO tomorrow, and will be even if we hit a mafia each lynch, assuming they get a townie each night.
Forget single cases and single suspicions. We need to each go over everyone with a fine tooth comb.
I have a busy day tomorrow, but will try and get something out before the end of night.
What the heck? Why even post this, all useless, especially the list. And plenty of time for going over Seviro's self-vote later? Why? There is not point in dwelling on this when we could be finding your buddies. Now for the bold part. What does this even mean? We need to lynch a scum first before we can connect them to others. Why waste time going over everyone when we can make the strongest case and get a scum lynch, then move forward.
You will die tomorrow.
Obviously, a Goss kill would be risky for either me or mementoss if we were mafia... but being obvious, WIFOM...
I also saw this last content post:
On March 28 2012 09:21 Gossemerr wrote: @ Mem: you didn't respond to my question about Nova.
@Artanis: I feel the same way as your first sentence. If Mem is scum its over, he is too green in everyone's eyes.
Again, would be odd for Mementoss to target Goss, knowing we would look at this, but again WIFOM. I would just suggest we don't bury his content posts from last night- including this:
On March 27 2012 20:49 Mementoss wrote: We want people to keep the discussion up or the town is doomed. Don't worry about dieing, worry about saying something that leads to a scum kill after your death. Honestly, I don't think anyone should be worried about dieing. There are only two possible mafia kills in my eyes. 1. Artanis 2. Mementoss
Probably not me anymore because I am thought of as less green than before by a couple townies.
Um, how would you know this? Also, yeah that underlined bit may not be so pro-town, but I remember last game where someone said that they were going to wait until after the night kill to post their case so they would not get killed (I don't remember who). So, basically I just meant don't be afraid to post, because we really need it. Also, why have you totally lost all suspicion in Nova? I have my reasons, but I will post them after you.
Who Wasn't Targeted: If both are town, Mementoss or Artanis were obvious targets. Mementoss suggested that maybe Artanis is somehow actually scum. I find this a bit weak. I can post why, but pretty much the game would be too skewed.
I don't know why Artanis wasn't shot. Killing a confirmed town is pretty obviously beneficial to scum. 1) Artanis' analysis could be off, meaning him staying alive will be advantageous to scum. 2) The scum could think there is a medic. This would mean two blue power roles- the scum might be able to guess there are two blue power roles based on how many special roles they have. I think this is somewhat less likely, since that would be a lot of power roles in a 12 man newbie game.
Why wasn't Mementoss shot: 1) I would suggest OCCAMS RAZOR: he is scum. 2) If he IS town, I think keeping him alive has the advantage of making me a clear lynch target, as he is gunning for me as well. But I think Occams Razor is the clear reason!
A final thought: -If I am scum, it would have been obvious to target Artanis or Mementoss. If I am scum and flip red, it means the town has pretty much 2 very strong greens. This would be a terrible plan. I should stress this with an underline! -If Mementoss is scum, all he has to do is get my lynched today and he wins.
@Michael You're whole argument is WIFOM, or quoting other peoples arguments against me. You think with your life on the line you would be able to make up some stuff to make me look scummy at least.
-To saying my point on Artanis is weak is right, I even said it wasn't at all likely I was just bringing it up for the sake of completeness of why he wasn't targeted. He countered my point by pointing out a mafia vigilante isn't a role. Making what I said impossible and I accept that.
I said this situation was most likely:
On March 28 2012 20:49 Mementoss wrote: C) Mafia is trying to confuse us. -> Mafia was in trouble after at least 2/3 of there members were labelled suspicious. Leading some sort of propaganda that puts doubt on Artanis a bit, but more than not me, Mementoss. I have been getting some heat lately, and Seviro mentioned a quick point out on some inconsistencies, and then was lynched. Gossemerr, mentioned me, and then was night killed. Its a little WIFOM that they are trying to put in the back of peoples minds to try and strengthen that I am scum. Most likely option.
If I was scum and you were town why would I kill Gossemerr? He would be the worst choice to kill. If the mafia just hit Artanis people would probably shift to the plan he laid out expecting his death. And his number one choice was to kill you, which would in turn, win me the game if I was scum and you were town. Killing Gossemerr would just bring negative attention back to me. Your whole case is based on this WIFOM and the WIFOM doesn't even line up.
Your team is bussing you because defending you at this point would be suicide for the mafia team.
The mafia kill is a desperation move that tries to lead the town to lynching me. I think the mafia acted out of desperation because either 2/3 or 3/3 of my scum cases are correct. If they just killed me, they had Artanis who already stated he agreed for the most part of my list. If they killed Artanis, I would just follow up on what I said/continue to scum hunt after Michaels death.
On March 28 2012 23:41 michaelthe wrote: If I am scum, it would have been obvious to target Artanis or Mementoss. If I am scum and flip red, it means the town has pretty much 2 very strong greens. This would be a terrible plan. I should stress this with an underline!
Yes it was a terrible plan. Gives us the town a better chance than we woulda had otherwise.
I'm here very briefly just to note one thing(i will be back in a couple hours) Notice how 2/3 of the common mafia suspicions (meaning michaelthe and ninja) havent voted yet. scummy. Artanis, why would you advocate my lynch in particular? instead of Ninja/bluey for example? Virtu, im so sorry, i hope your sister is okay <3 if you can though, please come and vote soon so we can see where you stand. i understand if this isnt possible however.
EBWOP: i know on an earlier post you said that you wanted the order to be michaelthe, blueyd, then myself, but why did you want to tell me that you would advocate my lynch depending on who dies?
Actually, the main thing is why did you tell me, a person you suspect as mafia, that you would advocate my lynch depending on who dies? would it not just make more sense to not tell me, and then see who the "natural kill" from the mafia would be?
Wow, I can't believe the lack of activity. We are in a LYLO and people aren't even trying. GG town I guess. I won't stop trying though, we still have some good daytime left.
On March 27 2012 20:49 Mementoss wrote: We want people to keep the discussion up or the town is doomed. Don't worry about dieing, worry about saying something that leads to a scum kill after your death. Honestly, I don't think anyone should be worried about dieing. There are only two possible mafia kills in my eyes. 1. Artanis 2. Mementoss
Probably not me anymore because I am thought of as less green than before by a couple townies.
Um, how would you know this? Also, yeah that underlined bit may not be so pro-town, but I remember last game where someone said that they were going to wait until after the night kill to post their case so they would not get killed (I don't remember who). So, basically I just meant don't be afraid to post, because we really need it. Also, why have you totally lost all suspicion in Nova? I have my reasons, but I will post them after you.
On March 27 2012 08:19 Mementoss wrote:But in the end I think either Nova or Seviro would be a good lynch at least for information, and if we are lucky. They are both scum.
He has since taken Nova off his lists. That would mean we had 0 reds on trial on day 2.
On March 26 2012 21:38 Mementoss wrote: If we lynch Seviro and Seviro flips town, Michael would be highly suspicious and so would Nova Terra. If we lynch Seviro and Seviro flips scum, Michael would be off my radar, and Nova would still remain suspicious.
Mementoss did this EXACT SAME thing last game. For those of you whom didn't read it: He was a scum that game, and he basically said this "either Seviro (who was also in that game, was town) or Gossemerr (me, was also town) are scum, but NOT both." Basically it meant that if we followed his logic then we would lose two townies. It so happened that we lynched Seviro and the game ended because of mod kills, but you all should get my point. I don't like this shit. Its like adding connections where they should not be, in order to influence votes. Here look at this earlier quote:
I can't believe people are just ignoring all of this, I guess he is really good at controlling the town's opinion, just like how he won last game.
Quick Recap of my defense: 1- My analysis was never bad, It was good analysis of bad play from townies 1.1- Artanis day 1, accidently made what is considered largest scum slip 1.2- Seviro- Very reactive aggression, but Self Vote and AFK at end of day convinced everyone.
I hope people start posting today, otherwise its GG. I have another pretty busy day, but will check in in about 6 hours and then this evening before votes are final.
1. I already defended this. Couple of townies, I meant people who put cases on me, which at that point were Seviro (flipped town) and Artanis (accepted as almost confirmed town). "Couple of townies". Worded poorly and shoulda been worded differently.
2.
On March 28 2012 03:29 Mementoss wrote: 1. Michael 2. BlueyD 3. Ninja4ever 4. Nova Terra
Suspicions list. Nova right behind who I analysed.Not on my radar for lynch today (because of you), but definitely considered for next day.
Also this:
On March 28 2012 20:53 Mementoss wrote: I am so mad at myself for missing this before Gossemerrs death.
" Also, why have you totally lost all suspicion in Nova? I have my reasons, but I will post them after you." -It would have been a good opinion to hear. -_-. To answer it now, I haven't lost all suspicion in Nova, I just find him less suspicious than the ones I labelled above. I am keeping on an eye on him, but will see if I find anything on him after we kill michael.
3. How is this the same "meta". Im not saying lynch these people if this happens, im saying look into them.
Even though it seems like everyone is set on lynching michael, we need to keep up the discussion about the next lynch too. The more talk we can get out of our suspects the better.
@Nova_Terra I'll expand on that later. If michaelthe flips green then I'd have typed it all up for nothing @Ninja4ever. please vote for michaelthe. If he's mafia and you haven't voted they could all unvote him and vote for no lynch at 5am and we'd still lose. It's actually a risk in this case because if we don't lynch we lose immediately so it doesn't matter if the mafia are known then.
Is it still possible to get replaced at this point ?
Basically I have 2 unexepected exams next week, on subjects that I was supposed to pass but didn't because of class absenthism penalities. So yeah, I'm kinda depressed as shit right now. Plus a ton of unexpected work. If it isn't possible I'll try to read and vote but yeah, I'm not even sure about that... Hope it won't spoil anyone's fun.
On March 30 2012 05:20 Ninja4ever. wrote: Is it still possible to get replaced at this point ?
Basically I have 2 unexepected exams next week, on subjects that I was supposed to pass but didn't because of class absenthism penalities. So yeah, I'm kinda depressed as shit right now. Plus a ton of unexpected work. If it isn't possible I'll try to read and vote but yeah, I'm not even sure about that... Hope it won't spoil anyone's fun.
The universe itself stops as the scientists make a final decision on who must die today. In fact, had anyone managed to peer outside the windows, they would see themselves surrounded by the same scene repeating ten thousand times in ten thousand versions of the same lab, each replicating the scene exactly. However, everyone's attention was too rapt on the drama occurring inside to take in the view outside the windows of the lab.
Six men faced inwards towards a terrified figure that stood next to the Time Anchor. "You'll, never take me alive!" michaelthe babbled in a panic. "I will die for the sake of chaos! Anarchy will rise triumphant" he said, thumbing a detonator, as the crowd looked on silently. "You don't think I will, do you! I will, I will, I will!" michaelthe repeated, thumbing the detonator nervously.
A sudden explosion shook the lab, causing the walls to shake, and michaelthe pressed the detonator, spraying the walls with blood. Outside, the mirrorlike nature of the landscape shatters, the mirrored labs break off and seem to zoom off into space, disaster has been averted. For now.
michaelthe the Mafia Goon has been lynched. You know the drill.
wow, this place really is a ghost town. BUT. we got one. two left to go, and we're good. We can collect our thoughts today, and go right into day 4 (i think it is) with a plan. So, it might be a good idea to at least post your thoughts if you think you have a chance of dying tonight. for me, i am still running BlueyD and Ninja. i am less sure about ninja, and it sucks that he might be replaced. Mementoss seems even more inno to me now, as michael's desperation target was him. I doubt that he would have tried to bus a fellow mafia before he died, but thats WIFOM.
Sorry I haven't been active, real life stuff getting in the way. There wasn't all that much urgent stuff to deal with in the town anyway - well, apart from the fact that you guys seem to be about to lynch me, but I still have a while before even that happens. It was pretty clear michaelthe was our lynch choice for today, anyway.
I'll get to what I gotta do in 2 days, or maybe late tomorrow night. I still have to post an analysis of mementoss as I said I would, too.
If anyone but Artanis gets scumhit tomorrow, I will be extremely surprised.
Right now my feeling on the lynch tommorrow is either Nova_Terra or BlueyD
Here is the list of remaining players with the top 2 being confirmed town (from my perspective): Artanis Mementoss
BlueyD Nova_Terra Virtu Ninja4ever
That means we have a 50% chance of lynching a mafia. I think we should stick to lynching either BlueyD or Nova_Terra while putting pressure on Virtu and Ninja4ever to post. Right now I feel like a lynch on virtu or ninja is a complete guess, because of there poor activity. Which is a shame. I am leaning BlueyD for tommorrows lynch > Nova Terra right now.
WIFOM: When michael knew he was going down, you'd think he would just keep his mouth shut. Honestly I don't think his team would want him trying to bring them down with him. He tried to bring me down, but he also tried to bring a lot of attention back to the Nova Case, even though I already explained myself. Purely WIFOM
This lynch will give us a lot of information I feel, because if BlueyD flips scum I doubt Nova is scum. Nova put the first case on him (seems super early to make an analysis case on team) as well as advocated another case on him recently. If nova flips scum, blueyd still could be scum but its less likely. Its possible that they're on the same team. But doesn't seem likely to me right now.
Between Ninja4ever and Virtu its a complete guess. WIFOM, BlueyD flips scum, ninja4ever might be innocent, as BlueyD was already Bussing michael, I doubt he would risk throwing another team mate under the bus. Keep posting guys, the mafia kills have been random so post everything you think or you might die. lol.
Okay, thats a start as least, but as a question for you mementoss, why do you not seem to suspect ninja much when his relatively few posts (and behavior itself) has been scummy? Just lurking itself is something scummy.
I do suspect him, but I dont think he is the right lynch today. I am certain that there is a scum between you and BlueyD. Like I said Ninja4ever and virtu also quiet possibly could have a scum between them. But lynching one of them feels like a complete guess.
Ninja4ever - Is lurking only to respond with shaky responses and bandwagoning (bad town or scum?) Virtu - Just not saying anything (lurking mafia, or IRL in the way?)
Between you and BlueyD we can at least use your posts to analyse and decide who would be the best lynch. Also I think a successful lynch on one of you two would give a lot more information than a successful lynch on Ninja or virtu.
Also I am excited to hear what Artanis was planning on responding to you after the lynch. Wonder what that is about.
Ima be heading out for the rest of the night in 1.5 hours, any questions ask me. I think I said almost all I needed to say today/ within my last huge post.
I've got a real tough decision I need to make tonight. I'm making my post as late as possible to give it some more thought. It'll be up before the night post though.
i meant was why did he futher off your radar. If BlueyD flips scum, in your opinion Is Ninja or Virtu our best option (both mementoss and artanis please) Jeez, the thread really died after yesterday. seems strange not seeing pages of new posts to analyse. It really bugs me that both Ninja and Virtu havent been replaced yet. at is point its going to be rediculous if they are replaced and the replacement starts posting a crapton. which is why i think its so important to determine the best lynch of them now.
I don't think Virtu is a suspect as I have indicated earlier; I just don't think he would've bothered to vote with all the commotion in his private life unless he felt a connection to town and didn't want to 'let them down', which wouldn't have been the case as mafia since mafia knew he was probably going to die either way.
This leaves BlueyD, Nova_Terra and Ninja4ever with 2 mafia between them. Mementoss is practically green too at this point. BlueyD appears to be the best target at first. Ninja is a massive gamble where I really can't say much about. What speaks for him is that michaelthe did put him in a few lists early on which could've potentially added badly, though mafia can put other mafia in there too in case they get killed. Still, despite the WIFOM I'd find this a slight point in favor of Ninja4ever.
Before the suspicion went to Michaelthe, he tried to start a bus on Nova_Terra as well which speaks in favor of Nova_Terra, more so than Ninja4ever's case. However, one interesting little bit;
In all of Michaelthe's post, BlueyD's name is mentioned only once. BlueyD on the other hand did throw a FoS at Michael. This was however after Seviro's post where he already threw Michaelthe in front of the train and this looked to be unsalvagable. To me, this makes BlueyD the most suspicious of the three. So right now I'd go with BlueyD and Ninja4ever as the two remaining mafia.
Hey guys, I've been keeping track of the game a little bit, but I'll need some time to really read the thread closely. We're on the right track, though, one scum down already. Let me know if you have specific questions for me about events that already happened, otherwise I won't clog up the thread with my thoughts on how lynches went or previous night kills.
@Janaan welcome! @Town I'm probably going to die this night. With my last breath, I suggest you trust Mementoss. I feel he's our only chance at town victory at this point. Unless Mafia for some reason decides to kill him rather than me, please remember my last post. I suspect BlueyD and Ninja4ever (Janaan now) the most, with Nova_Terra behind him. I don't suspect Virtu for reasons posted above, and Mementoss has been a valuable aid in town.
Artanis[Xp] had taken to patrolling the ChronoCorp lab at night in order to keep the rest of the crew safe and to at least put to use his military training. He knew it would be a thankless job since he had shot and killed an innocent man, but he did it anyways as an act of penance. Armed only with his service knife, Artanis[Xp] patrolled the lab, fighting exhaustion.
The lab is actually quite large, which made it extremely difficult for Artanis[Xp] to keep track of all crew members during his sweep. This problem was only compounded by the humming of the Time Anchor, which masked sounds, and time distortion which had recently started causing past instances of people to appear and repeat actions they had done only hours earlier. It was near the end of Artanis[Xp]'s sweep that he thought he heard hushed voices over the hum of the Time Anchor. He followed his ears closer and closer to the Time Anchor, finally crouching behind one end of the platform it occupies. If what he was hearing about cover stories and sabotage was true, then the remaining two anarchists were just on the other side of this platform!
Heart pounding, Artanis[Xp] crept around one corner of the platform, silently approached the last corner separating the two parties, and prepared to redeem himself in the eyes of the crew and save the universe with decisive action. Artanis[Xp] pounced from his hiding place, slashing viciously at the necks of the two anarchists with his service knife... only to meet no resistance. As the past instances of the anarchists started to dissipate, two things struck Artanis[Xp]. The first was that he finally knew the identities of last two anarchist. The second was a large wrench.
Artanis[Xp] was found dead the next morning, hung naked from the rafters by his wrists, with the words, "For Michaelthe" carved into his chest.
Welcome to SNMMIX, you are a Vigilante. As one of the marines assigned to oversee the rift project, you were caught in the lab when it began falling backwards through time. You have a single clip for your gun, which is enough to... terminate one suspect. Use your discretion to try to stop time itself from fracturing.
It is now day 4. You have roughly 48 hours to find someone to lynch.
The deadline is 03:00 GMT (+00:00), that means that votes at 11:59:59 will be counted, but votes at and after 12:00:00 will not.
After reading through the thread a bit, I think I'll start off with my overall reads on the players and go from there. These won't be full-on cases, just basically impressions. The order will be in order of the players list, not my suspicions.
Mementoss: Town. I don't think anyone doubts it now, and I'll be taking a VERY close look at anyone who says otherwise. After Michaelthe tried to push Mementoss, and Mementoss led Michaelthe's lynch, it's pretty clear that it was more than bussing, therefore Mementoss is town.
Virtu: It's tough to say, since he hasn't been active. I know he gave a real explanation for his absence, but that doesn't mean that he can't be scum. Artanis did bring up a good point about him coming back to vote, but at the same time, I can see him coming back to vote to not let down his scum-team. I think it's a bit WIFOM to decide his alignment just based on that. Unfortunately, with his circumstances, we may not hear much more from him, so if he IS scum, it may be hard to tell. Null read right now.
Nova_Terra: Looking scummy. I'd agree with the general opinion that Nova's posts are not looking good to me, if for no other reason than process of elimination. I can't explain things like why Michaelthe would want to vote for Nova on Day 2 if they were both scum, but trying to figure that out would just be an exercise in WIFOM. He's been posting a lot, and the posts feel a bit different from last game. It could just be him trying a different style like he said, or it could be because he's scum.
Ninja (Me now): Ninja didn't leave me in a good spot it seems. He's lurked pretty badly so far with only 2 pages of filter by day 4 and I can see why most of you guys say he was scummy. Just give me a chance to redeem myself. That's all I ask for.
BlueyD: He's been lurking almost as much as Ninja, it seems. He has about the same number of posts, they're just generally bigger. It could be an attempt to make him look more active than he actually is? In his most recent post, he promises an analysis of Mementoss, so I really look forward to seeing that. He looks a bit scummy right now, though.
Other comments: I don't think we can really deduce much from the most recent night kill. Artanis was the only 100% confirmed townie for everyone in the game, so of course scum would want to get rid of him, regardless of who the scum are.
Who I think should most likely be lynched today: I'm thinking either Nova or BlueyD. Virtu is too much of a wild card right now, I think. While he could be scum, there's not enough information to know for sure. Remember, if we don't have a medic or veteran, we're at MYLO, so we don't have the luxury of being wrong here.
If we ARE at MYLO, I suppose that it's *possible* to no lynch to gain more time for information gathering, but I personally wouldn't suggest it. If we were to do that, most likely, scum would simply kill Mementoss and we would be no better off. We'd just be without our strongest, essentially 100% confirmed, town player. If we can't come to an agreed lynch target, though, we at least have the option.
Now, everyone may have done this previously in the thread, but if possible, I'd like for everyone to give their 2 top lynch candidates for today so everything's out in the open and not buried back in the thread. At the moment, mine are, as previously stated, Nova and BlueyD.
1. Pretty sure this is a LYLO. Think thats an honest mistake. 2. The part about BlueyD? Looks to me like mafia bussing, actually. just a "bit scummy." Trying to gain towncred after he flips maybe? 3. After last game, I am naturally inclined to hate replacements. Therefore, i still think that ninja/you is the best lynch after blueyD. Even if you do a lot to try to redeem yourself. Ninjas play was scummy, and to have a replacement come in and everything is ok about them then is ridiculous. Like cosine/velinath from last game. was terrible. My top two candidates are still BlueyD and ninja/Janaan. Sorry that Artanis is gone, but kinda figured either him or mementoss would die anyway.
Then in response to your MYLO point I kinda agree with you, with the reasoning that another day without a lynch will just prolong our indecision and it would be even harder to get a collective vote the next day.
On March 31 2012 17:08 Nova_Terra wrote: 1. Pretty sure this is a LYLO. Think thats an honest mistake. 2. The part about BlueyD? Looks to me like mafia bussing, actually. just a "bit scummy." Trying to gain towncred after he flips maybe? 3. After last game, I am naturally inclined to hate replacements. Therefore, i still think that ninja/you is the best lynch after blueyD. Even if you do a lot to try to redeem yourself. Ninjas play was scummy, and to have a replacement come in and everything is ok about them then is ridiculous. Like cosine/velinath from last game. was terrible. My top two candidates are still BlueyD and ninja/Janaan. Sorry that Artanis is gone, but kinda figured either him or mementoss would die anyway.
2. Funny. I was just thinking the same thing about you. However, there IS another possibility. Since you seem adamant that BlueyD and I should be suspects, it could be that you and Virtu are the scummy ones. Tell me, just what do you think about Virtu? As it stands now, you have only even mentioned him in your posts about 5 times, and most of those were just asking him to post because "we need everyone". The only reads you've given were Null, "40% chance of being mafia".
Just for fun, lets see how much Virtu has talked about you. After the early game, talking about your meta from last game, one quote about Artanis's vig shot: + Show Spoiler +
On March 25 2012 17:10 Nova_Terra wrote: Yeah, If you are the vig artanis you should have waited. We could have had a free mafia death at some point. At least, sc2system was relatively worthless, so it should be a bit easier to go scumhunting.
It sucks he flips green but I think we'd have had a really hard time convincing people to lynch someone other than him tonight. Making statements like he enjoys confusing people, and voting for no lynch on day1 when everyone agreed that's probably the worst possible town outcome?
As you said, should make it easier to scumhunt now.
The more I think about this, the more it makes sense. Thoughts on this, anyone?
EBWOP: I'll be gone for most of the day in about an hour (I'm in college, and my parents are in town this weekend, so I'll be spending time with them, then my GF in the evening) so I won't be back on until late. Probably around 12-14 hours from now.
No, nonono guys, it's not MYLO, it's LYLO. It's 3-2. Mementoss, ninja/Janaan, Nova, Bluey, Virtu. 5 of us, 2 scum. Lynch no one and we fall at 2-2 tomorrow night, and mafia wins. We HAVE to lynch today.
I'd like to request that the discussion today revolve around who we lynch today. As of now, it’s entirely useless to discuss strategy for days we won’t get to at this rate.
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I stand by my earlier analysis on 3 of you. I thought Nova was scum, but now I think “leaning town” because michael tried to switch the votes to him on the day we lynched Seviro, which could very well have worked. Ninja/Janaan is more suspicious than Virtu, but it’s hard to know with the guy hardly being active. Between those 3, I’d say Ninja/Janaan is most likely to be the scum. But I’ve said all that already.
Ah, but we have 2 scum left, don’t we? Who’s the other one? The answer is, I don’t know. I’m taking it 1 day at a time right now.
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Just a few questions to town about mementoss…
First, how is he still alive? How come the greenest of the green, the town leader, survives to this day over froggynoddy and Gossemer? If I’d been mafia I would’ve taken him down on the first day, unless of course he were mafia as well, given that it was pretty clear from last game that he doesn’t really belong in a newbie game. Does he just have mad surviving skills, or is he simply on the side that doesn’t get night hit?
Second, let’s take a hypothetical situation: You’re scum, you’re clearly about to be lynched and nothing will save you. You have one last opportunity to attack someone. Do you…
a) Attack a townie, hoping the town still believes your attacks are legit when you flip scum. b) Attack another scum, making him look greener when you die.
It’s pretty obvious to me that michaelthe had zero chance of making a mementoss lynch pass at that moment, that any attacks he could make would backfire once he was revealed as scum, and that he used some very weak arguments unlikely to convince anyone, so this looks more like B than A to me.
I’d love to make a stronger case against mementoss, but the truth is he’s very good, and that’s pretty much all I have. And it’s a WIFOM, and of course he’s gonna win these by being seen as a greenie by eeeeeeveryone.
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Mementoss, I’d like to ask another question. You said:
I am certain that there is a scum between you [Nova] and BlueyD.
Janaan you're not helping me get over my hatred of replacements T-T I posted my thoughts on virtu earlier, and they still stand. lemme grab them in a sec. This still looks even more like a last ditch attempt to throw suspicion off of a scumbuddy. Ok here is my thing on Virtu "Virtu early game: virtu starts off by posting a couple 1-2 liners of fluff and then goes into standard agreement play where people start agreeing about day1 lurker lynches etc, and then he starts noting playstyles from last game, mine in particular. I can see how this could be useful, but as of yet he hadnt really posted anything helpful. he does randomly afk for 22 hours, which isnt good, but he does post a nice large analysis post on RoF/ System/ kinda ninja. does he use other peoples points? yes. does he effectively illustrate reasons why they are suspicious anyway? yes. still rather null on him. he switches around a few votes trying to get system lynched, but shifts back immediately to ensure majority stays. he seems like he is trying to be helpful. he provokes some discussion on gossemerr before having to stop due to a serious RL issue (and i really hope everything is okay). overall? He tries to be helpful, makes an analysis made from points that had been stated already, but provokes discussion."
On April 01 2012 03:25 Nova_Terra wrote: Janaan you're not helping me get over my hatred of replacements T-T I posted my thoughts on virtu earlier, and they still stand. lemme grab them in a sec. This still looks even more like a last ditch attempt to throw suspicion off of a scumbuddy. Ok here is my thing on Virtu "Virtu early game: virtu starts off by posting a couple 1-2 liners of fluff and then goes into standard agreement play where people start agreeing about day1 lurker lynches etc, and then he starts noting playstyles from last game, mine in particular. I can see how this could be useful, but as of yet he hadnt really posted anything helpful. he does randomly afk for 22 hours, which isnt good, but he does post a nice large analysis post on RoF/ System/ kinda ninja. does he use other peoples points? yes. does he effectively illustrate reasons why they are suspicious anyway? yes. still rather null on him. he switches around a few votes trying to get system lynched, but shifts back immediately to ensure majority stays. he seems like he is trying to be helpful. he provokes some discussion on gossemerr before having to stop due to a serious RL issue (and i really hope everything is okay). overall? He tries to be helpful, makes an analysis made from points that had been stated already, but provokes discussion."
Back for a few minutes then I'll be gone like I originally thought. So you're telling me that in FOUR DAYS you haven't thought any more about Virtu? I know Virtu hasn't been very active in those four days, but as town you should be constantly re-evaluating your reads on people. Did his coming back to vote make him look more townie or scummy to you? It may come from WIFOM, but you can still have an opinion on it. Your original post four days ago didn't satisfy me, and you just repeating the same information, even though there's new data available doesn't change anything.
Seeing as all he has done in those last couple days is explain his absence, no, nothing in my opinion has changed not that i havent thought about him, just that my previous opinion stands. I generally dont base opinions off of WIFOM because that doesnt really get us anywhere, however if you want me to base one on WIFOM I would say that it makes him seem *a little bit* more townie to me, an extremely little bit, because he voted for the people that I wanted us to vote for as well. and not for instance myself. It at least seems that he tries to help push the correct votes.
Well, after Janaan's seeming attempt to redirect attention away from a scum buddy, i will go with a vote on ##Vote: BlueyD i will be here for a little while before bed, if anyone needs me
The fact that BlueyD is still convinced I am not town makes me think he is mafia still ontop of the case I put on him. And while I feel Nova coulda been mafia I feel like that when the thread was dead he would try to bump it. Which a mafia would just lurk and let the town sit around.
To answer Bluey's question why I am certain there is one scum between him and Nova is because of the cases I did on both of you, you both have scummy traits (you more than him) and the fact he made an early case on you makes me think you are not both aligned together in the mafia.
The fact that Janaan (ninja) is voting nova, without a real explanation why to vote him over BlueyD, makes me think I was right about michael, bluey, ninja.
No idea what to think on virtu, it is impossible to do anything with him because of his activity. If he is scum, we will have to catch him by almost pure luck.
Who said anything about me convinced you're not town? I'm merely not convinced you're town, there's a difference. Can't I analyse you, or do anything without being branded scummy, really? And didn't I say I don't think I had much of a case on you if you were scum? Jeez...
Well, I really don't think I can save my ass, so I'll just put my vote on the on Nova like Janaan did, in a desperate attempt to keep the game going, and I'll get back here after the game to laugh at you all.
My metagame for next game: Shut up like Virtu, apparently that's good for survival and actually trying isn't.
^^The whole reason were in this awkward situation is because the whole town isn't active. The point of the game is not survival unless your mafia, the point of the game is to kill mafia. If you survive and get endgamed you stiil lose. Jeez. And there is nothing new that was brought to the table, you were number 1 before, and then nothing happened, so your still number 1 on my list.
The point is survival for me because if I die, it's 2-2 and mafia wins. I wouldn't normally care about surviving or not, but the situation just calls for it. I don't have an extremely solid lynch target in sight, so
And I'd rather put a vote on Janaan or even you, but it doesn't look like that would actually pass. In such a case a Nova lynch is better for town than lynching me, from my own point of view, because I at least know it's not 100% loss.
You seem to have dismissed or just ignored a LOT of what I've said to try to convince you that I'm green, and you just keep repeating that I'm scummy, so of course I don't have anything new to offer, and all I see is our loss getting closer and closer every hour. The other guys in town seem happy to just put a vote without really explaining it (my explanation might suck in your eyes, but at least it's honest), so again, not much to reply to. So it feels a bit like a lost cause to me, really.
(...) so all I can really do is try to defend myself and hope that, somehow, I become a less attractive lynch target. Heck, it's not like the others are giving me any activity to work with and try to make a case.
Oh, and I might add, flagging me as the obvious #1 was a great way to stiffle discussion. We already had 2 inactives, and if any of them is mafia then they really had no reason to become active, because you went "It's michaelthe then Bluey" 2 days ago, and got Artanis's support as well. That's when the town started getting ghosty.
I would like to think that Virtu and Janaan aren't our BOTH mafia. If they are we are fucked already. I think the vote is between you and Nova like I stated. I didn't flag you as number 1 per say I couldn't be here for 2 days so I just said that I was thinking you at that moment and that looking over discussion could change that. Artanis originally said michael then blueyD. I need to go back over Nova's activity.
If you really are town, if you could provide some sort of new stuff against nova that anyone missed, or even how his discussion context is suspicious that would help. Im here now, and Im not locked on either you or Nova. That being said its too late for a Janaan or virtu lynch.
I find that Janaan is taking the smart approach if he is mafia. He knows the two lynch targets today are Nova and BlueyD and by stating that both are looking scummy, he can get some heat off his back by this semi-bus tactic, if town successfully gets a mafia lynch. If Janaan is here I would like to hear his thoughts on who is a better lynch between Nova and BlueyD and why. Obviously he thinks its Nova, but why?
Also Janaan contradicts his statement of I would like to keep a very close eye/be suspicious of on anyone putting a case on Mementoss, because he practically confirmed town. Then BlueyD the only player putting pressure/case on me. (he said he wanted to lay a case on me but never actually posted it hmm, is this because I am town and he knew it would bring negative attention to him after michaels death???)
Then ends up voting Nova, contradicting his words. Very weird.
Also BlueyD it seems like your still trying to push Michaels agenda. It was probably his plan to kill Goss, as a last ditch effort to sway WIFOM my way. Michael did all he could and brought all that WIFOM up to get the town on his side. Then he died and flipped scum. Artanis was killed last night as the only person confirmed town.
And you still are trying to push michaels plan to get the heat off you. You keep stating how you think Janaan virtu are suspicious but yet to have post a case on them. State Nova is probably innocent because of the way michael voted, yet you vote him. You said a couple days ago a case on me would come but never has.
@BlueyD hypothetical - Me and Artanis together basically pushed themichael lynch. I posted the main case on him that finalized him getting lynched. If I was scum I coulda pushed a Nova lynch pretty easy, giving less information on michael and sway the case away from michael by convincing Artanis. I already have explained why every WIFOM doesn't make sense.
Still a couple people not voting, could be scum last minute fucking the town, or otherwise could be just inactiveness.
As I've said repeatedly, I see Nova as "leaning townie" due to his interaction with michael: michael trying to switch the vote from Seviro to Nova. There's really two ways to see this move: 1) michaelthe legitimately tried to switch a lynch from a townie to townie to cause chaos, or 2) michaelthe was commiting suicide just to make Nova look less suspicious, which was entirely unneeded because Seviro was gonna be lynched over Nova anyway. #2 seems far-fetched to me, and so I think Nova is more likely to be town.
I put my vote on him because after the whole "Bluey vs Nova" thing and Janaan's vote, his lynch looked like my only chance of surviving, therefore our only chance of not losing tonight. He's not my #1 lynch candidate, ideally.
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You say a Janaan or Virtu lynch has the disadvantage of not giving us much information. That's true, but that's also our fault: We didn't pressure these guys much in the last few days, even though we had plenty of time due to michael's lynch being decided very early on day 3 (or even night 2). We called them inactive and suspicious, but as long as we were attacking the active ones they just had to stay in the back and eat their pop corn.
You've already said don't think both Nova and I are mafia, which means right now you HAVE to be thinking at LEAST one of the lurkers is. My best pick between the two is Janaan, and yours is as well.
And unlike what you say, it's not too late: Nova said he'd be around, Virtu will show up to vote, and we represent 2 votes. We could actually do it.
Your either trying really hard now because your town. Or your scum. Lol.
If Nova is scum and you are town he won't come back to vote and will let you die.
If we push a Janaan lynch and he flips scum it could be your brilliant plan to bus your teammate because maybe all three of the mafia have been spotted, and you are in desperation mode.
That being said I am still not set in my vote, if other people other than me and BlueyD contribute to the conversationg I might be willing to switch.
As for the michaelthe lynch, you seem to think pointing out why exactly the voteswitch was nonsensical, which is what I did, was a non-important part of the case. I was on michaelthe's ass right when that happened, asking him why he was trying to switch from Seviro to Nova and pointing out how his "I'm just making sure we get a lynch" excuse made zero sense given the number of votes, and his "but the guys on the other side aren't here to switch votes!" excuse didn't stand because Gossemer was actually there.
I'll be the first to grant that I wasn't the first to make a case against him. You'll have to agree that the part of the case which I did make was very convincing, and that no one made it before I did. If your own case against him had been that convincing, we would've lynched him day 2 instead of Seviro.
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Come on, mementoss, stop deforming my words. I said an analysis of you would come. All I had against you, I posted. It wasn't much. I recognised it. I never said I'd make a case - I hadn't even looked at your filter in a while when I said that, hence why I said I'd take a closer look and post what I had.
And I just explained why I voted Nova, twice, but here you go again... At the moment of my vote, this was the situation:
Probability of lynching someone other than Nova or me: Very low; would probably result in me being lynched instead Probability of town losing if I am lynched, from my own point of view: 100% Probability of town losing if Nova is lynched: Somewhat less than 100%
Possibility of making a very good case on anyone else: Very low as well, since there are 2 inactives, 1 very good player and 1 guy I think is more likely to be green than red.
On April 02 2012 08:13 Mementoss wrote: That being said I am still not set in my vote, if other people other than me and BlueyD contribute to the conversationg I might be willing to switch.
"Hey guys, if you don't say a word, we'll lynch Bluey!"
Lol... Well you just took both mafia out of the conversation, good job. Why would you do that?
Well they weren't talking anyways and with the current information I have you are the best lynch. If we had a half decent town 2 of them would be showing up right now.
It is time to choose, and for one person, that is too much of a burden to bear. As the last five remaining men stand, gazing out at the cosmos, seeing the origin of time itself, the nexus, materialize, an ever changing column of iridescent glass, from which strands of shimmering, dancing light, time itself, spawn. Silently, virtu stands, unheard by the other four men, who are mesmerized by the sudden apparition that has interrupted their bickering, and steps out of the room, and then out of the doors of the building, exposing himself to the glory of the cosmos. Anything but choose the fate of the universe.
The cosmos is not kind to virtu, within a second the time radiation strips the flesh from the bone, and virtu is undone, to the point where he has never been at all. In the laboratory, noticing the absence of virtu, two men glance at each other and smile. Mementoss notices this sly glance, and stands up, reaching into his coat pocket. He is far too slow, before he can get out the small pocket knife held therin, a wrench, wielded deftly by Nova_Terra smashes his face in, gushing blood as his brains spill out on the floor.
A terrified BlueyD manages to make it half-way to the door, before realizing there is nowhere to flee and facing his assailant, Janaan, with a resigned sigh. His death is quick, and gruesome. Done with the butchery Janaan drops the bloodied knife, and gives a quick nod at Nova_Terra, both sit down, ignoring the fresh carnage, and simply look at the nexus, the origin of time itself, as the lab speeds up in its approach.
Then time itself ceased to be. By the actions of three men, time never was.
This is the end
No one was lynched. Since there is now no way to stop the mafia from equaling the town, mafia wins. Virtu the Miller has been consumed by the time vortex Mementoss a Vanilla Townie took a wrench to the head BlueyD a Vanilla Townie was chopped up Janaan a Mafia Goon has helped end time Nova_Terra the Godfather has secured eternal Anarchy.
Haha, I actually had big doubts about Mementoss when I died, but figured the only way Town would have a chance was if Mementoss was green, so I decided not to post it. Also didn't find it strong enough, and didn't want mafia to run off with it. + Show Spoiler +
@Janaan welcome!
@Everyone as you may have noticed I've said that Mementoss is basically as green as me. That was not true and it's an attempt in the case that if he is town as well, he may get hit instead which would clear him and still give us one confirmed townie; me. Looking back at his posts there's quite a few things that I find interesting.
Exhibit A: Michaelthe scumtell
omfg, michael that was the stupidest move ever if you are town. Seriously, there is no town logic behind it. I thought of what you said too, that last minute mafia could vote switch for the no lynch due to us not having virtu, but guess what. It would be fucking stupid because it would bring all eyes on them and we could connect the dotes and kill there whole team in a couple swipes. As of now switching your vote makes a no-lynch more likely so you completely contradicted yourself. I am so confused right now, GJ mafia your doing your job.
Alright, michael is now officially looking scum for me.
Michaelthe came up with a bad mafia plan which prompted Mementoss to instantly reply to it and claim that he's scum. The good part about this is that Michaelthe turned out to be mafia. The bad part; it's a terrible mafia play because you draw attention to yourself with it and it's a dumb plan which anyone with logic behind him can point out. It's too obvious, and Mementoss is smart enough to know that. Yet, he still decided to post about it.
Exhibit B: Inconsistency
On March 22 2012 23:38 Mementoss wrote: Another thing I learned from last game and I think Nova_Terra will agree with me is, making connections (or anti-connections) between players is absolutely useless until the town flips its first scum. Keep track of it for all means, just no need to post it until scum is flipped and it can be used with case analysis (can't stand alone as a case). Cause you can literally find these connections between most players, its just the nature of the game, and the town trying to work as a team.
Four days later..
On March 26 2012 21:38 Mementoss wrote: If we lynch Seviro and Seviro flips town, Michael would be highly suspicious and so would Nova Terra. If we lynch Seviro and Seviro flips scum, Michael would be off my radar, and Nova would still remain suspicious.
Making connections before anyone flips scum. Very inconsistent and makes no sense. His defense when Gossemerr pointed this out was this:
How is the above a connection? I did not connect 2 players, I basically said what information we could get from the flip. As for the lynch, I actually think going for a Nova lynch in a lynch right or lose situation is a really risky move. And would rather go for these new suspicions from the flip/Seviro's confirmed town last dieing words.
I'd consider it a very clear connection. Saying what information you can get from the flip basically equals a connection.
Exhibit C: Back and forth pulling with michaelthe Michaelthe, knowing he will die, decides to accuse Mementoss. What's the best way to make someone look innocent if you're scum? Accuse them. Michaelthe went from a period of semi-inactivity to accusing Mementoss as much as he could, though not very effectively. Circumstancial evidence, but it does point towards Mementoss. Sacrificing Michaelthe would also reveal him to be a very reliable player, and given mafia only needs one mislynch to win at this point, a small price to pay to ensure at least one mislynch.
Exhibit D: Gossemerr's death Before Day 3, there were 2 'town leaders', and one 'deputy' if I may, being Gossemerr. Mementoss and I mostly led the town and Gossemerr came up with some dirt on Mementoss, and showed that despite not having posted much he could start doing so now and turn town on Mementoss after all. Killing me would not sway town away from that. Killing Gossemerr and preventing further analysis would, and anything else could be blamed on WIFOM.
Exhibit E: Voting record On the first day, he mentions he wants to kill a lurker unless someone makes a significant scum slip. Said scum slip befell on me, yet he did not push for my lynch but rather that of Rise Of Fenix, and later sc2system after his posts. Also, he first votes a lot for Nova_Terra then later decides to move targets to everyone but Nova_Terra. This leads me to believe that if Mementoss is indeed mafia, his buddy is Nova_Terra as he can quote past posts and note how he distanced himself from Nova. It must be noted however that Momentoss didn't instantly bus me when I made the so called Scum slip, which does improve his image as a townie.
Exhibit F: Scum slip
On March 27 2012 20:49 Mementoss wrote: We want people to keep the discussion up or the town is doomed. Don't worry about dieing, worry about saying something that leads to a scum kill after your death. Honestly, I don't think anyone should be worried about dieing. There are only two possible mafia kills in my eyes. 1. Artanis 2. Mementoss
Probably not me anymore because I am thought of as less green than before by a couple townies.
Something Michaelthe pointed out. I don't consider it very significant as I made a 'scum slip' too but was townie, nevertheless it is worth nothing. The meta case by Gosse I didn't find particularly interesting either; looking like a super green townie is always in your best interest, whether mafia or town, so I found that a weak reason.
With this post, I'm not calling for a lynch of Mementoss. I'm asking town to look at him critically and then make a unified decision. I would suggest following Virtu's lead, because I believe him to be the closest thing to a green that town has right now, and I'm pretty sure town would at least not be led by a mafia, in which case we've lost already.
Mementoss has also said a lot of things that made sense and given the amount of posts he's made it's possible that these are simply some of the mistakes he's made. However, there's also a very real chance that he's mafia. Read over the thread again and draw your own conclusions.
I will do an analysis of this game if you all would like. (Don't want to just be speechifying) If so, it will have to wait until SOAF mafia is through as that will be demanding my attention.
An analysis would be sick. Especially if you note how awesome Michaelthe was in particular with his vote switch thing that actually ended up kinda saving me. Haha seviro, i think that if virtu came he woulda voted BlueyD. why? because both Artanis and Mementoss were gunning for him, and virtu had been going along with their thoughts previously. And, had they lynched me, i still think janaan would have survived due to how he went heavy on me. Activity near the end was kinda depressing. i kept checking back and saw that i had the most recent post from like 12 hours before. Actually, in the beginning of the game, i was actually REALLY busy, no lies about that, and i was so scared early because i never had time to actually play my meta from last game >.> I'm surprised after my defense where i pretty much claimed insanity (bwahaha) I didnt get lynched xD
I wanna know Mementoss' opinion on this, i almost feel bad for him hehe
Lol fuck. God dammit Nova, I shoulda kept my original gut feeling on you. At least I was right about michael/ninja. The part that killed us was Nova/Seviro day. I wanted to stay on Nova, and did until like 6 hours before deadline from start of day, but no one was budging to give that side majority and Seviro's self vote killed us. If he woulda posted his last post earlier I think either Michael or Nova woulda died that night.
EBWOP: Would love an analysis on this game too. Honestly playing the scum seems so much easier in these mini's.
Also me going away for 2.5 days and the activity kinda got sucked out of the town -_-. I was almost convinced BlueyD was telling the truth. I was going to put my vote on Nova while I was gone, just so he would have to post and re-analyse the situation when I got back. Too bad I didn't QQ.
I would indeed have switched my vote from Seviro had he switched the order of his self-lynch post and his defense post. At the end of that day michaelthe looked like the best lynch by far, but it was a bit too late to switch.
I'll have to reevaluate my play some, I bought into Nova's innocence after the events with michaelthe. At least my last vote was in the right spot, even though it was me trying to save my own ass, not me legitimately thinking Nova was scum.
And memento, we were dead anyway due to Virtu not showing up. If you switch your vote to Nova, there's a good chance that Janaan just shows up at the very last minute to switch his own vote to me.
Apologies to town, major RL issues this week it's just been unreal, drama free life for years then it all happens in a week after i've been watching mafia games for a while and eventually wanted to get stuck into one.
On April 03 2012 00:55 Nova_Terra wrote: virtu who would you have voted for? xD
BlueyD, purely because I had literally zero chance to even read the thread over the last few days, so I decided to follow Mementoss (my strongest town read up to my absence). I did however think you were scum since the end of day 2, because the game I followed the most was the last mini mafia and your first game, and saw your play there. Even toning things down from that game your play was entirely different. Well played though!
Probulous and Seviro have earned themselves 1 outrageous compliment each for their spotting of ninja as scum.
Probulous, you are so incredibly handsome that if you were cast in Twilight as Edward the fans would be outraged if you DIDN'T sparkle.
Seviro, you are so smart that if you were in a horror movie everyone would get out alive. Well, except for the hot girl who has sex in the first scenes. It isn't a horror movie if she doesn't die... screw it, you save her too, you are just that awesome.
i'm curious what people think of my hard bussing strategy. It could have backfired pretty hard, but it seemed like the best way to guarantee that we'd get a mislynch, whether it happened that day, or the next day phase (if myself or Nova got lynched, the other would look more town automatically). Did it actually make sense to do, or was my thinking off?
Shame newbie towns never lynch on meta day 1, because Nova was the obvious candidate there. He improved later, and the bus on michaelthe was really well executed.
Seviro martyring himself just as he started looked really townie was... depressing.
On April 02 2012 20:33 Mementoss wrote: Lol fuck. God dammit Nova, I shoulda kept my original gut feeling on you. At least I was right about michael/ninja. The part that killed us was Nova/Seviro day. I wanted to stay on Nova, and did until like 6 hours before deadline from start of day, but no one was budging to give that side majority and Seviro's self vote killed us. If he woulda posted his last post earlier I think either Michael or Nova woulda died that night.
GG
We knew me either me or nova would be f*d if we just straight up killed Seviro. We discussed busing Nova on day 2, a ballsy strategy, but Ninja started the vote on him that day and I would have secured it- making us both look clean.
However, Mementoss and Seviro posted shortly before. We already discussed the strategy and didn't think too much about it. But the Seviro self-vote and AFK made things get turned on their head.
The outcome wasn't too bad for us since it caused so much confusion, and made a strong line between me and Nova (regardless of who died) which wasn't questioned enough later.
The real shame is that inactive players realllly kill these newbie games, and there isn't much of a way to stop that. We had several people not contribute the entire game. Mafia would have still secured the kill on BlueyD on the final day, but inactives still make things tough.
On April 02 2012 14:53 DoYouHas wrote: I will do an analysis of this game if you all would like. (Don't want to just be speechifying) If so, it will have to wait until SOAF mafia is through as that will be demanding my attention.
I would appreciate this, but if you are busy that's fine.
Let's start with your first posts as all of them had scumtells.
Nova_Terra- Click Your first post was confident and playful. Especially in a newbie game, where first posts are really awkward, the level of playfulness you displayed is out of place with a townie POV. Particularly the phrase "we don't bite, much" seemed scummy to me. Then in your second post you start talking about lynching lurkers and your confidence is gone. By the end of your post you set yourself up to be ok with whatever direction policy discussion goes. Confidence in trivial posts and wishy-washy stances on things that matter is classic scum.
Michaelthe- Click Your first post's only scummy statement was "Finally, I read that even mislynching a townie can be beneficial." Most townies will not make a statement like this, and if they do they will usually soften it or be roundabout. However, there is an underlying contradiction in your first post. You say you want to lynch lurkers, but then you say that it is ok to lynch townies due to the information you can gain. The problem is that lynching a lurker gives you the least amount of information (if they flip town) for the next day. Those 2 things make your first post fairly scummy.
Ninja4ever.- Click Your first posts set you up nicely to be the lurker scum of the team. The only things in them that might have tipped your hand was that you didn't add anything to the discussion, and you seemed to me to be posting because you felt under pressure to post (where there wasn't really any) before you had anything to say. Not really scummy, but it might have put you on my radar.
All 3 of you really could have been pegged as scum day 1 if Rise of Fenix didn't cover you. You all actually took a big risk with the Rise of Fenix case. All 3 of you pushed the RoF bandwagon that Mementoss started without voting for RoF. You also set Mementoss up to be a town leader by uniformly supporting his case, a mistake you compounded by not killing him night1.
Nova was pretty spammy without much content. Avoided actually giving his opinion and just agreed with 3 different townies, especially Mementoss. The buddying coming from Nova and the suspicion coming from Mementoss gives you a piece of valuable information. It is extremely unlikely that Nova and Mementoss are both scum. (Most interaction between scum like this comes day2 or later when mafia feel established and comfortable. It is rare that mafia openly buddy each other day1 in a newbie game.) The other is that Nova is more suspicious of the 2, so he should have been pressured.
Ninja4ever. I would have lynched you in a heartbeat day1. First off, this post: + Show Spoiler +
On March 23 2012 17:59 Ninja4ever. wrote: Some thoughts before going to school :
About the kill lurker strategy : it can make sense, mafia are often lurking as it gives them a way to not be judged and therefore not make mistake. At worst a not so useful townie is killed. Seem like the best thing we can come up with with the lack of information we have on day one. Although, I'd like to say that, since from the very first posts, we said our strategy would very like be to hit on the lurker list. the probabilities of a mafia lurking aren't that great. It's also interesting to think about HOW a lurking mafia, if there is one, would react to such a strategy ? Two things come to my mind : an inexperienced mafia would all of a sudden start posting a lot more than he previously was, and a more experienced one would probably stop lurking just enough not to be considered a lurker anymore. Townies wouldn't change their behavior. I'll analyse more on the lurker list and on the rise of fenix case when I'm back from school, gotta go for now.
This post screams scum at me. You are back on lynching lurker policy talk even though the case against RoF is already out there. Your post is not relevant to the discussion at all. Look at the progression of this post.
1. Killing lurkers makes sense and is the best thing we can come up with day1. 2. Probability of mafia being in the lurkers is low. 3. How would a lurking mafia act? (WIFOM) 4. If a lurker stays lurky after pressure they are townie.
You scumslip the exact way that Artanis[Xp] blue slipped. You are paying an inordinate amount of attention to WIFOM about a lurking scum (which happens to be what you are) and it feels out of place in the thread. Then you get to this post. You "defend" RoF, but not really because you are pointing parts of his filter that could be mafia agenda and saying you are 60% on him being scum. Then you are back to policy talk that is largely unhelpful, voting for a lurker, and identifying valuable targets for mafia to hit during the night.
Michaelthe, you were probably the hardest scum to pin down day1. However, your refusal to respond to people being suspicious of you early, instead we get this: + Show Spoiler +
On March 23 2012 14:21 Rise Of Fenix wrote: My points: I dont think I was thinking straight, and reading over my posts I have really been really playing terribly. Im sorry.
However, I think it is time for a little bit of analysis.
As I was suspicious of Michaelthe earlier, and then was backed up by froggy. Michael the never defended himself. I think that this is reason enough to lynch him, but until he defends himself I wont.
I couldn't help but laugh a bit, one of the main criticisms of your play is that when you wanted to accuse me then found out you could vote and change it off you still didnt.... You still arent!
Anyways, I was going to post before I went to bed on the issues of the past few hours:
On Fenix:
The issue is whether he was legitimately confused or had some sort of contradiction. One of the things that caught my eye when Mementoss lined up Fenix's posts where these two lines:
On March 23 2012 05:24 Rise Of Fenix wrote: Day one lynching is always a solid plan to move foreward, but no real tells are showing thus far. I will likely post my thoughts about 1 hour before the deadline. But not lynching anyone only benefits the scum.
On March 23 2012 07:27 Rise Of Fenix wrote: What I said was not that I wouldnt post until the End, I meant i wouldnt vote until the end. .
Someone pointed out that voting last minute appears scummy, but then he insists he meant vote and not post thoughts. The idea of him voting late became somewhat reasonable when we found out he didn't know you could change your vote, but the idea that he initially posted thoughts when he meant votes is still odd. Even with English as a second language, thoughts and votes are not the same.
The other analysis of Fenix was based on a few other minor contradictions such as accusing without voting, saying he would vote for me but not (and again here...) and a few other minor things.
The issue is simple- is Fenix just making bad plays, or is he scum making really odd contradictions. Some of the things I thought of when looking at Mementoss' criticism are 1) Most newbies games don't find a mafia in day 1, the analysis is too shaky, 2) Fenix made multiple mistakes with terms and ideas, reinforces the idea that Fenix is just making bad plays...
On March 23 2012 11:44 BlueyD wrote: I don't know if the guy is awful scum or awful townie. All I know is he's awful. If he's town, he'll be absolutely useless to us, .
This might be true, but we still have a few people that are lurking really hard. I was hoping to stop lurkers with my vote ultimatum, and it worked (or helped) with a few people. But we still have a few that aren't posting. After thinking about it, I think a vote for one of these is better. They are less helpful than "awful town" and also, it prevents them from being modkilled- which is real bad for the town.
On Froggy
You came out VERY defensive. I called for lurkers to post, and they did... But hey, that's not my strategy!:
On March 23 2012 04:54 froggynoddy wrote: The decision to lynch should therefore be based on 1. information (gathered by pressuring, amongst other ways) 2. Correct analysis. But without 1. we shall never be able to do 2. And therefore any decisions to lynch will be less strong.
Your turn Euro's. See you in the morning.
Which isn't strictly OMGUS, but clearly they were being targeted because they were the two who had attacked you. Also, for someone who has been posting lists and systems and generally being aggressive, "This might be true, but we still have a few people that are lurking really hard." is a really strange thing to say when someone accuses you of being awful and useless.
So there are a few ways you could have been found out. Now for the more general things. While it really turned to your advantage to repeatedly avoid killing Mementoss, I think it was a mistake to not hit him night1. He had shown that he was suspicious of Nova, one of the few who was. He was active and taking a leadership role and was a decent analyst. He also had just spearheaded a townie lynch so he was less likely to be protected than he might have been otherwise. I remember from the scum QT that Nova thought that killing him would make Nova look suspicious. However, you can just call that line of reasoning WIFOM and move on. Leaving Mementoss in the game made day2 so much more potentially dangerous for scum.
Now for the good things. You played off each other well. By the time LYLO hit there was practically 0 chance for the town due to how well you had positioned yourselves 'against' each other. If any of you died it made at least 1 of the others look town. You managed to break down Mementoss's confidence and other's confidence in him. You maintained 3 very different styles throughout the game, making it harder for people to think of you as a team. You stayed vocal and maintained influence with the town largely without drawing suspicion.
Artanis[Xp]'s Vig
On March 22 2012 21:12 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Hey guys, just woke up, sorry for not replying yet. 3am is quite late for us Europeans, but I'm here now This is my third or fourth game of TL Mafia, I've organized Insane Mafia before which was an absolutely insane game and a ton of fun. I'm also pro lynching someone on day 1 as lynches are the only reliable way to kill mafia. We don't know if there's a vigilante in the game, but I don't think we can count on it. We should also treat any roleclaims with suspicion. Don't blindly follow anyone that claims, or anyone that makes long posts. Think for yourself and don't jump on bandwagons. From what I've seen in other games this is generally what kills towns. Mafia is by definition more organized so they're better at bandwagoning, though a smart mafia will never have everyone voting on one person. However, if there's any risk of a mafia getting lynched they'll normally switch their votes off so anyone that switches votes at the last minute should be viewed with suspicion.
In your very first post you speculate about Vigilantes and roleclaims, this is a pretty bad blue slip and even hints that you might be a Vig since that is the role you seem focused on.
Then there are the reasons you should not have shot sc2system. I'm not going to tell you that it was a terrible shot, because it wasn't. However, you should have looked at day1 and seen that the bandwagon that got RoF killed was also pushing sc2system pretty hard. When RoF flipped town you should have realized there is a good chance that the bandwagon was scum controlled and/or pushed. So there was a good chance that town got pigeonholed into focusing 2 townies. The other reason is that you were already conflicted as evidenced in this PM excerpt,
"In case you're interested, I almost went for seviro a few times and michaelthe. Really tough choice but decided to go with the safe bet. Virtu also looks suspicious to me." -Artanis[Xp]
If you have 3-4 different people you all think are pretty equally suspicious, and you can't narrow that field through reviewing the thread, I would suggest not shooting until you have more information. The only reason I understand your wanting to make sure you shot night 1 was because you were being pressured because of your "scum slip". I can see fear of being lynched day2 driving you, but I still think you would have been better to wait.
Town
Bad play from town gave the mafia time to establish themselves this game, that was pretty much it. 2 mislynches and a missed vig hit put the town in an extremely difficult position. So here is my general advice for better town play next time.
1. Always have a purpose for whatever you post (personal motto). 2. Look for the people pushing mislynches but also trying to avoid the blowback. 3. Keep notes on your reads with explanations. 4. Stay active. 5. Re-evaluate after every mislynch, paying specific attention to day1 where mafia are most likely to have made mistakes. 6. See who fits into scummy archetypes (Nova = Spam without content, Michael = Throwing suspicion around +OMGUS, Ninja = Lurking scum) in order to narrow your search. 7. Summarize events of the game to yourself in order to clarify trends and behaviors.
A lot of my critique of the town should be apparent in what I thought they missed about the scum team. Mementoss was clearly town MVP, but he never quite got a handle on the scum team. P.S. Sorry this took so long. I kept putting it off. Also, sorry for the short town section. I just couldn't get myself to read the whole game over again multiple times to get relevant individual town player analysis.
I am really dissapointed with my play day 2, I feel if I coulda took my feelings of Nova and got him lynched town would have for sure won. Seviro's self vote made it impossible, but I couldn't get Artanis off his analysis despite leaving my vote on nova for a very long time. After playing back to back games with him I felt his scummyness from the start. At the end I wanted to get town information and no lynch wouldn't help. QQ. Oh well. I still need to improve my game and reading this analysis will help. Still don't understand why I wasn't killed any night, they were relying heavily on WIFOM to get me lynched.
I would like to note espeically, If you are town and are at risk of being lynched. Please don't give up. RoF and Seviro both did this. Post a good case of your best scum read, early enough that town can switch. Don't just OMGUS to save your own ass, on the next closest lynchie, pick your best read. Seviro's last post would been 5 hours earlier he might have saved himself.
EPT
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