EPTIm posting all of what I think in case I die tonight. You don't need to read it all at the moment, read parts and come back later, you can use it as a reference after I flip green if needed. I will be analyzing from most suspicious to least suspicious.
1. MichaelThe
Filter Analysis:
First couple of posts are standard in mafia game, so I won't quote them as they don't say much.
Basically here is a summary:
1. Lets lynch a lurker, force activity
2. Town loses because of inactivity
3. Here are some guides I found helpful
4. I am a noob don't feel threatened by me I looked up OMGUS. (scum trait)
Spends next couple of posts saying the same basic things. Lets post quality posts, while he just continues to post the same stuff he said. Lets jump into the first post worth noting:
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 23 2012 07:19 michaelthe wrote:
Actually, completely by accident. He should be below sc2system and ninja, but above froggy.
I was tracking posts by quality and page by assigning a value to each post from 0 (greeting, basic chatter), 1 (very basic, but maybe an opinion), 2 (basic thoughts), or 3 (solid attempt at analysis for day1). Best I could do for day1... I suspect filters and exact content will matter more on day 2 or 3+
The scores are as follows:
sc2system: 0,0 (a few posts on day1 I lumpped I think)
Ninja: 0,0
Froggy: 0,1,1
And, as you said and I missed:
Fenix: 1,1 (Argentina)
So I will add him to the list, I guess in fairness I will give him 8 hours from this post, so an extra 40 minutes or whatever
Revised list:
1. Sc2system
2. Ninja
3. Rise of Fenix
4. Froggy
Actually, completely by accident. He should be below sc2system and ninja, but above froggy.
I was tracking posts by quality and page by assigning a value to each post from 0 (greeting, basic chatter), 1 (very basic, but maybe an opinion), 2 (basic thoughts), or 3 (solid attempt at analysis for day1). Best I could do for day1... I suspect filters and exact content will matter more on day 2 or 3+
The scores are as follows:
sc2system: 0,0 (a few posts on day1 I lumpped I think)
Ninja: 0,0
Froggy: 0,1,1
And, as you said and I missed:
Fenix: 1,1 (Argentina)
So I will add him to the list, I guess in fairness I will give him 8 hours from this post, so an extra 40 minutes or whatever
Revised list:
1. Sc2system
2. Ninja
3. Rise of Fenix
4. Froggy
It is a list, of the least useful townies. It contains an ultimatum to post or be lynched, which is never followed up one. Note that 3 people on this list have been confirmed town. This leaves only 1 person left, Ninja4ever. It is common for mafia to say who they are suspicious of through lists, where they don't have to really have an indepth analysis of why. Along these same lines, its common to include a fellow mafia player on this list not at the first place position. In case that person does flip scum it doesn't bite your ass, and not putting them number 1 or analyzing anything doesn't bring a lot of attention to them.
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 23 2012 15:23 michaelthe wrote:
I couldn't help but laugh a bit, one of the main criticisms of your play is that when you wanted to accuse me then found out you could vote and change it off you still didnt.... You still arent!
Anyways, I was going to post before I went to bed on the issues of the past few hours:
On Fenix:
The issue is whether he was legitimately confused or had some sort of contradiction. One of the things that caught my eye when Mementoss lined up Fenix's posts where these two lines:
Someone pointed out that voting last minute appears scummy, but then he insists he meant vote and not post thoughts. The idea of him voting late became somewhat reasonable when we found out he didn't know you could change your vote, but the idea that he initially posted thoughts when he meant votes is still odd. Even with English as a second language, thoughts and votes are not the same.
The other analysis of Fenix was based on a few other minor contradictions such as accusing without voting, saying he would vote for me but not (and again here...) and a few other minor things.
The issue is simple- is Fenix just making bad plays, or is he scum making really odd contradictions. Some of the things I thought of when looking at Mementoss' criticism are 1) Most newbies games don't find a mafia in day 1, the analysis is too shaky, 2) Fenix made multiple mistakes with terms and ideas, reinforces the idea that Fenix is just making bad plays...
This might be true, but we still have a few people that are lurking really hard. I was hoping to stop lurkers with my vote ultimatum, and it worked (or helped) with a few people. But we still have a few that aren't posting. After thinking about it, I think a vote for one of these is better. They are less helpful than "awful town" and also, it prevents them from being modkilled- which is real bad for the town.
On Froggy
You came out VERY defensive. I called for lurkers to post, and they did... But hey, that's not my strategy!:
Your turn Euro's. See you in the morning.
I couldn't help but laugh a bit, one of the main criticisms of your play is that when you wanted to accuse me then found out you could vote and change it off you still didnt.... You still arent!Anyways, I was going to post before I went to bed on the issues of the past few hours:
On Fenix:
The issue is whether he was legitimately confused or had some sort of contradiction. One of the things that caught my eye when Mementoss lined up Fenix's posts where these two lines:
Someone pointed out that voting last minute appears scummy, but then he insists he meant vote and not post thoughts. The idea of him voting late became somewhat reasonable when we found out he didn't know you could change your vote, but the idea that he initially posted thoughts when he meant votes is still odd. Even with English as a second language, thoughts and votes are not the same.
The other analysis of Fenix was based on a few other minor contradictions such as accusing without voting, saying he would vote for me but not (and again here...) and a few other minor things.
The issue is simple- is Fenix just making bad plays, or is he scum making really odd contradictions. Some of the things I thought of when looking at Mementoss' criticism are 1) Most newbies games don't find a mafia in day 1, the analysis is too shaky, 2) Fenix made multiple mistakes with terms and ideas, reinforces the idea that Fenix is just making bad plays...
This might be true, but we still have a few people that are lurking really hard. I was hoping to stop lurkers with my vote ultimatum, and it worked (or helped) with a few people. But we still have a few that aren't posting. After thinking about it, I think a vote for one of these is better. They are less helpful than "awful town" and also, it prevents them from being modkilled- which is real bad for the town.
On Froggy
You came out VERY defensive. I called for lurkers to post, and they did... But hey, that's not my strategy!:
Your turn Euro's. See you in the morning.
Mentions Fenix, but does not state a solid opinion on him either way. Mentions this is scummy, but the rest could be bad town. NEVER commits to either. Wants to be able to say he lynched a greenie to keep majority. Also I find it interesting to see Michael say voting last minute and posting last minute are both scum traits. Both, which he used before the end of last nights lynch, which we will get to.
Mentions froggy, but it makes no sense, Froggy states a lynch based on information from pressuring is more strong than a lynch based on other information. Michael says I called out lurkers to post. I don't see how this is defensive.
Onto Michaels case vs Artanis:
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 24 2012 05:08 michaelthe wrote:
I was 100% ready to come and vote for sc2system.
He essentially had zero content in a few filler posts. Then he voted on a bandwagon without activity. BUT the slip from Artanis[Xp] is too severe. Mementoss pointed it out, but it is worth repeating:
1. ONLY scum know who the townies are. This is a simply point, they know who is mafia, therefore they know who isnt mafia. Even if a DT checks someone, the person could have been framed, or the miller, or the GF or whatever. The ONLY way to know someone is town is TO BE mafia.
2. To call this a newbie mistake I think is incorrect. Freudian slip is more likely. There is a natural hesitation in everyone's mind as they play this game. To post with certainty that someone is a Town, even in 3 words, is a massive slip.
3. His only defense is "oops, my bad, scum slips dont happen since I would vet every post". Doesn't convince me. If this were true, 90% of scum slips wouldn't happen!
This is too severe to overlook! sc2system is a good lynch, I still don't think Fenix is a great lynch, but Artanis is the clear day1 lynch in my mind!
##Vote: Artanis[Xp]
I was 100% ready to come and vote for sc2system.
He essentially had zero content in a few filler posts. Then he voted on a bandwagon without activity. BUT the slip from Artanis[Xp] is too severe. Mementoss pointed it out, but it is worth repeating:
1. ONLY scum know who the townies are. This is a simply point, they know who is mafia, therefore they know who isnt mafia. Even if a DT checks someone, the person could have been framed, or the miller, or the GF or whatever. The ONLY way to know someone is town is TO BE mafia.
2. To call this a newbie mistake I think is incorrect. Freudian slip is more likely. There is a natural hesitation in everyone's mind as they play this game. To post with certainty that someone is a Town, even in 3 words, is a massive slip.
3. His only defense is "oops, my bad, scum slips dont happen since I would vet every post". Doesn't convince me. If this were true, 90% of scum slips wouldn't happen!
This is too severe to overlook! sc2system is a good lynch, I still don't think Fenix is a great lynch, but Artanis is the clear day1 lynch in my mind!
##Vote: Artanis[Xp]
Says he was 100% about to vote sc2system, who was first on his list. All for lynching a lurker day 1 because analysis day 1 is too shaky to go by. Then completely changes his mind and puts down a vote on one of the more active players, who is now almost confirmed town.
On point 1, re-states what I initially pointed out, then talks about a bunch of roles that aren't even in this game.
Point 2, isn't a point against artanis, its just an opinion of what term it should be called.
3.While his defense was bad, you are over exagherating it by a mile.
-Says Fenix is a bad lynch, even though he ends up voting Fenix.
-Goes on trying to convince me and Seviro that it was a huge slip and to vote artanis right away. Even after I explain why its not a good day 1 lynch. Tunnels Artanis pretty hard for 3 posts. This is important as it is consistent in his play to tunnel.
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 26 2012 03:10 michaelthe wrote:
I'm sorry I was inactive the past 24 hours, rl was busy (still is for the next 12 hours, but daughter is sleeping). I also didn't expect as much discussion in the night phases.
This is going to be long post, we actually have a good bit to go over!
Night 1 Results:
I was initially surprised to see a vig shot on a townie, but it quickly became apparent that this was a great call by Artanis. I would have been going at his throat today due to his slip. Artanis basically proved it was a typo, as he claimed. Artanis is now pretty confirmed town. He also picked his target well. Sc2 was at best an anti-town townie.
Initial Day 2 Thoughts
At the end of day1, I reread the argument between Seviro and Artanis. While I was pretty sure Artanis was scum, I thought Seviro's reponse was absurd. I came to the conclusion that one of these two were most likely scum... Since Artanis is now mostly-confirmed, the attack on Seviro gained another look.
I came today and read and took notes the last 3 pages or so. While reading Night1, I noticed that Goss was the only one to suggest before AND after that sc2 vig hit wasn't good. This was in my notes, but I actually didnt too think much of it until Artanis posted something.
Artanis posted a list of 3 ppl. I am going to attack the other two on that list. I know this looks scummy (zomg, Im on a list of 3, look at them 2, not me!), but I think people will see me being reasonable rather than overly-defense on the attack on Seviro/Goss. I already posted that these two aroused my suspicion. My reasons above and below should be clear.
Defense from Artanis
Artanis makes two points:
1) I defended Fenix as probable town: There were two clear options: He was terrible town, or he was terrible scum. What made me think he was just terrible town is because he was confused on multiple issues regarding the rules and terms in Mafia. He wasn't playing scummy, he was playing confused. I made the case that sc2 was a better lynch, but it was clear we had two useless players, either of them wasn't bad. I think most people weren't surprised when Fenix flipped town, but everyone was fine with that.
2) You call it a change in play style when I went from analytical to jumping on you hard for your slip. I much prefer an analytical style- rather, thats how I think. I would suggest jumping on you was objective. Everything I know and have read about mafia points out that your slip was the largest scum slip in the book. I could imagine mafia vets coming and analyzing the game and saying “WTF, NO ONE CAUGHT ARTANIS' SLIP?!?!” You yourself admitted it was a giant slip. Jumping on it was objectively a good thing.
If you want more, let me know.
On Seviro:
(This is based heavily on his filter, pull it up if you want to see specific posts, this is already long enough without them all)
First substantial post after initial wave of basic crap:
1. He is suggesting a policy lynch based on not voting within an 8 hour deadline. The reason policy lynches are bad is because it removes analysis and focuses only on the policy. This one specifically means someone would be a lynch target simply for voting 4 hours from the deadline rather than 8. If you get scum to meet the deadline, the scum get a free town kill.
2. Seviro's reponse to Artanis Attack. I was fairly certain Artanis was scum, after what I saw as a strong slip. But I think the vig claim was great (more on that later). I reread the Artanis / Servio post and thought Artanis' attack was simple (based on day1 stuffs..) but Serviro WAY overreacted with his defense. He went on to vote for Artanis in his defense, which is a TERRBIE move!
3. FOUR minutes later he states a willingness to go after Fenix...
After the Fenix train picks up some steam, he totally forgets about Artanis.
Then he changes OFF Artanis and... onto Virtu, for not being active enough. His acusations are extremely fickle. He ends the day by jumping on the same train as everyone, Fenix.
4. After Day1, he posts that he thinks sc2system is town. He has defended bad play of Fenix and SC2 as town. ONLY MAFIA KNOW WHO TOWNIES ARE!
He discusses the virtu vote as “pressure”. A vote with nothing behind it, with no case, nothing. He doesn't at all revisit his Artanis vote here.
His most recent posts finally address the Artanis vote, his reasoning is ABSURD:
He says it wasn't a chainsaw defense, but then pretty much describes a chainsaw defense. We have all been discussing the initial Seviro/Artanis issue, I think Seviro would rather see it buried.
On Gossemerr:
What really caught me off was him talking about the vig shot. Before and after the vig shot he thinks its a terrible idea.
First, here is why its a good vig shot:
1) Artanis had a LOT of heat on him (at least in mind) due to a big mistake of calling someone a townie (which only Mafia could know). Artanis is now the most confirmed town we have.
2) sc2system was either a anti-town townie (useless posts, wanting to confuse ppl, etc.) or scum. A vig shot on him isn't bad in either case. A townie posting anti-town crap is useless. Even more useless if they get modkilled later for inactivity!
Further more, it is particularly absurd that Goss would dislike this vig shot because Goss' ONLY attack has been agasint sc2system! Why would be pro-lynch on him and not pro-vig hit!?
I think Goss thinks it's pro-town to frown upon a vig shot hitting a green, and therefore did. Everyone else was pretty much in consensus that it was a good vig shot.
Conclusion
I think this is terribly scummy from both Seviro and Goss. Seviro wanted his bad play buried, he ignored it mostly, and then defended it poorly. Goss made a big mistake of being the only person to go against the vig hit, despite making a case agasint the target! He went against the vig hit because he thinks it's pro-town to frown upon the vig accidently killing a green.
Right now I would vote for either of these, I think they both made major mistakes. If I could vote twice, I would. I'm starting with Seviro because I think it's too his advantage to have more time past from his mistakes so he can bury them. Also, he has already tried, and failed, to cover up his bad play, Goss hasn't had a full chance to defend himself.
##Vote: Seviro
I'm sorry I was inactive the past 24 hours, rl was busy (still is for the next 12 hours, but daughter is sleeping). I also didn't expect as much discussion in the night phases.
This is going to be long post, we actually have a good bit to go over!
Night 1 Results:
I was initially surprised to see a vig shot on a townie, but it quickly became apparent that this was a great call by Artanis. I would have been going at his throat today due to his slip. Artanis basically proved it was a typo, as he claimed. Artanis is now pretty confirmed town. He also picked his target well. Sc2 was at best an anti-town townie.
Initial Day 2 Thoughts
At the end of day1, I reread the argument between Seviro and Artanis. While I was pretty sure Artanis was scum, I thought Seviro's reponse was absurd. I came to the conclusion that one of these two were most likely scum... Since Artanis is now mostly-confirmed, the attack on Seviro gained another look.
I came today and read and took notes the last 3 pages or so. While reading Night1, I noticed that Goss was the only one to suggest before AND after that sc2 vig hit wasn't good. This was in my notes, but I actually didnt too think much of it until Artanis posted something.
Artanis posted a list of 3 ppl. I am going to attack the other two on that list. I know this looks scummy (zomg, Im on a list of 3, look at them 2, not me!), but I think people will see me being reasonable rather than overly-defense on the attack on Seviro/Goss. I already posted that these two aroused my suspicion. My reasons above and below should be clear.
Defense from Artanis
Artanis makes two points:
1) I defended Fenix as probable town: There were two clear options: He was terrible town, or he was terrible scum. What made me think he was just terrible town is because he was confused on multiple issues regarding the rules and terms in Mafia. He wasn't playing scummy, he was playing confused. I made the case that sc2 was a better lynch, but it was clear we had two useless players, either of them wasn't bad. I think most people weren't surprised when Fenix flipped town, but everyone was fine with that.
2) You call it a change in play style when I went from analytical to jumping on you hard for your slip. I much prefer an analytical style- rather, thats how I think. I would suggest jumping on you was objective. Everything I know and have read about mafia points out that your slip was the largest scum slip in the book. I could imagine mafia vets coming and analyzing the game and saying “WTF, NO ONE CAUGHT ARTANIS' SLIP?!?!” You yourself admitted it was a giant slip. Jumping on it was objectively a good thing.
If you want more, let me know.
On Seviro:
(This is based heavily on his filter, pull it up if you want to see specific posts, this is already long enough without them all)
First substantial post after initial wave of basic crap:
1. He is suggesting a policy lynch based on not voting within an 8 hour deadline. The reason policy lynches are bad is because it removes analysis and focuses only on the policy. This one specifically means someone would be a lynch target simply for voting 4 hours from the deadline rather than 8. If you get scum to meet the deadline, the scum get a free town kill.
2. Seviro's reponse to Artanis Attack. I was fairly certain Artanis was scum, after what I saw as a strong slip. But I think the vig claim was great (more on that later). I reread the Artanis / Servio post and thought Artanis' attack was simple (based on day1 stuffs..) but Serviro WAY overreacted with his defense. He went on to vote for Artanis in his defense, which is a TERRBIE move!
3. FOUR minutes later he states a willingness to go after Fenix...
After the Fenix train picks up some steam, he totally forgets about Artanis.
Then he changes OFF Artanis and... onto Virtu, for not being active enough. His acusations are extremely fickle. He ends the day by jumping on the same train as everyone, Fenix.
4. After Day1, he posts that he thinks sc2system is town. He has defended bad play of Fenix and SC2 as town. ONLY MAFIA KNOW WHO TOWNIES ARE!
He discusses the virtu vote as “pressure”. A vote with nothing behind it, with no case, nothing. He doesn't at all revisit his Artanis vote here.
His most recent posts finally address the Artanis vote, his reasoning is ABSURD:
He says it wasn't a chainsaw defense, but then pretty much describes a chainsaw defense. We have all been discussing the initial Seviro/Artanis issue, I think Seviro would rather see it buried.
On Gossemerr:
What really caught me off was him talking about the vig shot. Before and after the vig shot he thinks its a terrible idea.
First, here is why its a good vig shot:
1) Artanis had a LOT of heat on him (at least in mind) due to a big mistake of calling someone a townie (which only Mafia could know). Artanis is now the most confirmed town we have.
2) sc2system was either a anti-town townie (useless posts, wanting to confuse ppl, etc.) or scum. A vig shot on him isn't bad in either case. A townie posting anti-town crap is useless. Even more useless if they get modkilled later for inactivity!
Further more, it is particularly absurd that Goss would dislike this vig shot because Goss' ONLY attack has been agasint sc2system! Why would be pro-lynch on him and not pro-vig hit!?
I think Goss thinks it's pro-town to frown upon a vig shot hitting a green, and therefore did. Everyone else was pretty much in consensus that it was a good vig shot.
Conclusion
I think this is terribly scummy from both Seviro and Goss. Seviro wanted his bad play buried, he ignored it mostly, and then defended it poorly. Goss made a big mistake of being the only person to go against the vig hit, despite making a case agasint the target! He went against the vig hit because he thinks it's pro-town to frown upon the vig accidently killing a green.
Right now I would vote for either of these, I think they both made major mistakes. If I could vote twice, I would. I'm starting with Seviro because I think it's too his advantage to have more time past from his mistakes so he can bury them. Also, he has already tried, and failed, to cover up his bad play, Goss hasn't had a full chance to defend himself.
##Vote: Seviro
Explains why vig shot was good. I already stated early why it was good. Second time posting the same thing relatively quick after I post this. Maybe because I look town and if he says what I say he will look town?
Decides since Artanis is almost confirmed town, and he argued with Seviro, Seviro must be a scum. Poor poor logic. From this he is the first person Day 2 to post a case against Seviro, who ultimately ends up getting lynched and flipping green. Lets look at his case.
1st point - Takes words out of context, he mentioned people who don't vote before 8 hours may be good candidates to lynch. Not policy to auto lynch them.
2nd point - You used OMGUS, lets lynch him
3rd - In context, he did this because he didn't want a no-lynch day 1.
4 - He states who he thinks are town, even though its bad play. Never said confirmed town, this point is useless.
Lets look at the gossemer case:
Based completely on Goss opinion on the vig shot. Re-explains what I said. Using WIFOM to say you think its bad? You must think its pro-town to think its bad? YOUR SCUM. Obviously vig shot on green is worse than vig shot on scum.
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 26 2012 14:48 michaelthe wrote:
Re: Goss
On the vig shot:
-You had made a case against him. You had a high suspicion he was scum. This was YOUR case and YOUR suspicion which you later essentially deny.
-You suggest that he might have “stepped up on day 2?” More likely he would have made it more difficult. I think that was clear on day 1.
-Artanis basically confirmed himself town for day 2 when he was a good lynch target for day 2. He gave the town a valuable asset, while taking out a useless/bad/possible scum person.
-Even AFTER you realized the above point, you still dont see it as good?
You are pretty much the only person who sees the vig kill as bad, I still do not understand why.
There has been a call for you to post some more substantial content. I would like to hear your thoughts on the current issues. Nova and Seviro would be a good start.
Re: Goss
On the vig shot:
-You had made a case against him. You had a high suspicion he was scum. This was YOUR case and YOUR suspicion which you later essentially deny.
-You suggest that he might have “stepped up on day 2?” More likely he would have made it more difficult. I think that was clear on day 1.
-Artanis basically confirmed himself town for day 2 when he was a good lynch target for day 2. He gave the town a valuable asset, while taking out a useless/bad/possible scum person.
-Even AFTER you realized the above point, you still dont see it as good?
You are pretty much the only person who sees the vig kill as bad, I still do not understand why.
There has been a call for you to post some more substantial content. I would like to hear your thoughts on the current issues. Nova and Seviro would be a good start.
-Tunnels gossemer case further basically re-stating what he said before, even after Goss defends it. Tunneling towns to get focus on them, or at least have the town doubt them. It makes the tunnelled player unable to post anything of use then makes them look suspicious later in the game. I doubt a mafia would tunnel another mafia. They would make a case, but not further tunnel it.
Vote switching before deadline without reason, after scolding RoF for even bringing it up.
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 27 2012 06:29 michaelthe wrote:
I am changing my vote to Nova.
He was already on my short list of potential suspects. I think the initial case against his meta shift was okay, but pretty much confirmed by his reponse and ppl from last game, in addition to analysis of his posts this game and weak defense.
I would also hope we get 6 votes on him rather than 5. Why? Mafia benefit from a no lynch, as the same targets would remain with no new info. A mafia could quick switch from one target to make this happen, maybe even Nova voting for himself.
After seeing Seviro vpte himself, the other option is that both of the two targets tonight are red. Seviro and Nova could be planning to swap votes last second in order to score the no lynch. They could both argue this is better for them, since they both suggest self preservation as the motive. (Although this may be weaker since I am posting this).
Nova has been posting some random analysis in the past few hours. This could be a last ditch effort to prove useful, or he could also be doing this to try and get me hit tomorrow in the day lynch if Seviro comes up green and is killed tonight. If we killed seviro, and he flipped green, we would have two suspects, Nova and Me. Nova would obviously go for me.
Again, I think we need 6 votes, if not 7, depending on which scinario we have (and who the third mafia is).
##Vote: Nova_Terra
I am changing my vote to Nova.
He was already on my short list of potential suspects. I think the initial case against his meta shift was okay, but pretty much confirmed by his reponse and ppl from last game, in addition to analysis of his posts this game and weak defense.
I would also hope we get 6 votes on him rather than 5. Why? Mafia benefit from a no lynch, as the same targets would remain with no new info. A mafia could quick switch from one target to make this happen, maybe even Nova voting for himself.
After seeing Seviro vpte himself, the other option is that both of the two targets tonight are red. Seviro and Nova could be planning to swap votes last second in order to score the no lynch. They could both argue this is better for them, since they both suggest self preservation as the motive. (Although this may be weaker since I am posting this).
Nova has been posting some random analysis in the past few hours. This could be a last ditch effort to prove useful, or he could also be doing this to try and get me hit tomorrow in the day lynch if Seviro comes up green and is killed tonight. If we killed seviro, and he flipped green, we would have two suspects, Nova and Me. Nova would obviously go for me.
Again, I think we need 6 votes, if not 7, depending on which scinario we have (and who the third mafia is).
##Vote: Nova_Terra
After tunnelling Goss and seviro so hard for the first 40 hours of the day, you would think he would switch from one to the other. Nope. He switches to Nova. Why? He doesn't switch because he agrees with the Nova case, actually he never commented on my case against Nova or Nova's defense actually. He switches purely because of some WIFOM ideas. Mafia last minute switch into no-lynch. Really contradicting of his earlier views, also, maybe trying to get his name off Seviro as he pushed it the hardest, when seviro flips green.
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 27 2012 06:33 michaelthe wrote:
This is turning into a clusterF*** tonight.
I think its clear that either one or both of the targets are red, otherwise they would just lurk. We have to kill one with a large margin though, as the no-lynch is a big thing we need to be careful of. Read my above post, I think Nova is the target for tonight.
This is turning into a clusterF*** tonight.
I think its clear that either one or both of the targets are red, otherwise they would just lurk. We have to kill one with a large margin though, as the no-lynch is a big thing we need to be careful of. Read my above post, I think Nova is the target for tonight.
You made it a clusterfuck. Re-enforces this idea, so maybe the town will tunnel the other leading in a mafia win the next day. If both targets were green mafia could lurk and let the town kill eachother. If both targets were red I think more cases woulda been thrown on the table rather then them bussing eachother.
WIFOM
Everyone that has posted a case against Michael is dead and confirmed town.
Froggy Case:
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 23 2012 10:07 froggynoddy wrote:
Wow. Michaelthe, I'm not sure if you are bad town or bad scum. Regardless, you seem pretty bad.
You're first post states (after day 1) that you are for lurker lynch:
You're second post has no content:
Your third point is some very weak finger pointing:
There is pretty much nothing to go by. Your content is zilch, you are putting suspicion on people who have more content than you; I have argued that forcing lurkers to post is beneficial to town, more convincingly than you have (as has seviro and to a certain extent Nova_Terra), yet you put a really weak case forward against three posters.
I'm not voting for you YET but you seriously need to shape up. Accusing players who have posted content in day 1 seems scummy to me as there is so little to go by.
Make a better case dude. (for all three of us)
Wow. Michaelthe, I'm not sure if you are bad town or bad scum. Regardless, you seem pretty bad.
You're first post states (after day 1) that you are for lurker lynch:
You're second post has no content:
Your third point is some very weak finger pointing:
There is pretty much nothing to go by. Your content is zilch, you are putting suspicion on people who have more content than you; I have argued that forcing lurkers to post is beneficial to town, more convincingly than you have (as has seviro and to a certain extent Nova_Terra), yet you put a really weak case forward against three posters.
I'm not voting for you YET but you seriously need to shape up. Accusing players who have posted content in day 1 seems scummy to me as there is so little to go by.
Make a better case dude. (for all three of us)
Seviro Case:
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 26 2012 03:04 Seviro wrote:
My main suspect now is Micaelthe: Here is Froggy post about his early game so I won't have to repeat it.
+ Show Spoiler +
I want to add on his ultimatum thingie.
+ Show Spoiler +
2 thing I want to point out with this.
First thing, 3 out of 4 on this list are now dead dead townies.
Second, he post an Ultimatum than never happen:
Which he emphasize as being an ultimatum.
Then his first actual vote happen 23 hour after his ultimatum whereas he said an ultimatum of 8 hour more so that he vote for someone that is not on his list.
Which lead me to talk about the "Feudian slip" as he calls it.
He seems to insist a lot on this than needed, now that we already had ROS and sc2system under the radar he bring back a point that had been discuss hours before as if since ROS and sc2system where dead men walking at this stage if he could change day 1 lynch then day 2 and 3 would have been a big mess for the town.
I'll point out also that he was not the first to vote for Artanis since my vote was still on him and most of his opinion were mostly reformulating. Then, at the end of the day he just follow the bandwagon as he see that Artanis won't get lynched.
Sorry for the lenght of the post, longer than expected.
My main suspect now is Micaelthe: Here is Froggy post about his early game so I won't have to repeat it.
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 23 2012 10:07 froggynoddy wrote:
Wow. Michaelthe, I'm not sure if you are bad town or bad scum. Regardless, you seem pretty bad.
You're first post states (after day 1) that you are for lurker lynch:
You're second post has no content:
Your third point is some very weak finger pointing:
There is pretty much nothing to go by. Your content is zilch, you are putting suspicion on people who have more content than you; I have argued that forcing lurkers to post is beneficial to town, more convincingly than you have (as has seviro and to a certain extent Nova_Terra), yet you put a really weak case forward against three posters.
I'm not voting for you YET but you seriously need to shape up. Accusing players who have posted content in day 1 seems scummy to me as there is so little to go by.
Make a better case dude. (for all three of us)
Wow. Michaelthe, I'm not sure if you are bad town or bad scum. Regardless, you seem pretty bad.
You're first post states (after day 1) that you are for lurker lynch:
You're second post has no content:
Your third point is some very weak finger pointing:
There is pretty much nothing to go by. Your content is zilch, you are putting suspicion on people who have more content than you; I have argued that forcing lurkers to post is beneficial to town, more convincingly than you have (as has seviro and to a certain extent Nova_Terra), yet you put a really weak case forward against three posters.
I'm not voting for you YET but you seriously need to shape up. Accusing players who have posted content in day 1 seems scummy to me as there is so little to go by.
Make a better case dude. (for all three of us)
I want to add on his ultimatum thingie.
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 23 2012 07:19 michaelthe wrote:
Actually, completely by accident. He should be below sc2system and ninja, but above froggy.
I was tracking posts by quality and page by assigning a value to each post from 0 (greeting, basic chatter), 1 (very basic, but maybe an opinion), 2 (basic thoughts), or 3 (solid attempt at analysis for day1). Best I could do for day1... I suspect filters and exact content will matter more on day 2 or 3+
The scores are as follows:
sc2system: 0,0 (a few posts on day1 I lumpped I think)
Ninja: 0,0
Froggy: 0,1,1
And, as you said and I missed:
Fenix: 1,1 (Argentina)
So I will add him to the list, I guess in fairness I will give him 8 hours from this post, so an extra 40 minutes or whatever
Revised list:
1. Sc2system
2. Ninja
3. Rise of Fenix
4. Froggy
Actually, completely by accident. He should be below sc2system and ninja, but above froggy.
I was tracking posts by quality and page by assigning a value to each post from 0 (greeting, basic chatter), 1 (very basic, but maybe an opinion), 2 (basic thoughts), or 3 (solid attempt at analysis for day1). Best I could do for day1... I suspect filters and exact content will matter more on day 2 or 3+
The scores are as follows:
sc2system: 0,0 (a few posts on day1 I lumpped I think)
Ninja: 0,0
Froggy: 0,1,1
And, as you said and I missed:
Fenix: 1,1 (Argentina)
So I will add him to the list, I guess in fairness I will give him 8 hours from this post, so an extra 40 minutes or whatever
Revised list:
1. Sc2system
2. Ninja
3. Rise of Fenix
4. Froggy
2 thing I want to point out with this.
First thing, 3 out of 4 on this list are now dead dead townies.
Second, he post an Ultimatum than never happen:
Which he emphasize as being an ultimatum.
Then his first actual vote happen 23 hour after his ultimatum whereas he said an ultimatum of 8 hour more so that he vote for someone that is not on his list.
Which lead me to talk about the "Feudian slip" as he calls it.
He seems to insist a lot on this than needed, now that we already had ROS and sc2system under the radar he bring back a point that had been discuss hours before as if since ROS and sc2system where dead men walking at this stage if he could change day 1 lynch then day 2 and 3 would have been a big mess for the town.
I'll point out also that he was not the first to vote for Artanis since my vote was still on him and most of his opinion were mostly reformulating. Then, at the end of the day he just follow the bandwagon as he see that Artanis won't get lynched.
Sorry for the lenght of the post, longer than expected.
Also the vote against Nova would give less information about Michael, and if Nova flips red it would make Michael look confirmed town. If Nova flips green we have less information on Michael and he says he just wanted to get a majority.
Questions directed at Michael:
What is your response to Seviro's last dying post involving you?
Why are you such scum and how do you feel about being lynched tommorrow?
Overall Opinion
Gotta be Scum
2. BlueyD
Filter Analysis:
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 23 2012 11:44 BlueyD wrote:
Just a quick summary of Rise of Fenix's behavior up to now...
- Admits to not reading the rules and says some really confused stuff about voting as a result
- Accuses michaelthe due to his eagerness to lynch an inactive, when many have argued we should do this
- Tells michaelthe he would vote for him if there were an unlynch in the game
- Doesn't actually put in a vote for michaelthe once he knows he can unvote later, says he has no reads instead
- Uses really short posts frequently
I don't know if the guy is awful scum or awful townie. All I know is he's awful. If he's town, he'll be absolutely useless to us, but if he's mafia, he'll quickly give himself out on the 2nd day, at this pace. I'm putting my chips on bad townie for the moment.
To Rise Of Fenix: You better come up with some real information as to why you acted like you acted (see above points), or else I WILL put my vote in for your lynch.
---
Ninja4Ever. and sc2system seem to be our 2 big time lurkers at the moment. They, together with Fenix, are part of my top 3 should lynch list.
Just a quick summary of Rise of Fenix's behavior up to now...
- Admits to not reading the rules and says some really confused stuff about voting as a result
- Accuses michaelthe due to his eagerness to lynch an inactive, when many have argued we should do this
- Tells michaelthe he would vote for him if there were an unlynch in the game
- Doesn't actually put in a vote for michaelthe once he knows he can unvote later, says he has no reads instead
- Uses really short posts frequently
I don't know if the guy is awful scum or awful townie. All I know is he's awful. If he's town, he'll be absolutely useless to us, but if he's mafia, he'll quickly give himself out on the 2nd day, at this pace. I'm putting my chips on bad townie for the moment.
To Rise Of Fenix: You better come up with some real information as to why you acted like you acted (see above points), or else I WILL put my vote in for your lynch.
---
Ninja4Ever. and sc2system seem to be our 2 big time lurkers at the moment. They, together with Fenix, are part of my top 3 should lynch list.
-Sums up my case on RoF.
-Has same list as Michael almost, sc2,ninja and Rof. Only missing froggy.
On March 24 2012 07:49 BlueyD wrote:
We've really got no news on Rise of Fenix so my analysis from my last post about him hasn't changed. Earlier today, I was 50/50 on lynching Fenix or sc2system, since my 3rd top 3 pick (ninja4ever) started posting, but then sc2system started acting... Reaaaally scummy.
I'll point to just one thing: Between his vote for Rise Of Fenix and his vote for No Lynch (due, according to him, to Rise now contributing), Rise Of Fenix has ONLY ONE POST. And it says:
That's a contribution?! That's even more useless than the rest! I don't know why he chose to vote no lynch at that moment, but his reason makes NO SENSE. Maybe it had to do with him being under attack and trying to make us think he was just a little peaceful guy?
... And then he votes for Virtu out of nowhere. Pure bandwagon jumping, and not one that was going anywhere either way. Virtu hasn't been scummish at all, and while he had a few hours of inactivity, when he posts it at least makes sense.
I don't know if we'd get more info out of a Rise of Fenix lynch, but it doesn't matter to me when I'm getting huuuuuge scumvibes from sc2master.
We've really got no news on Rise of Fenix so my analysis from my last post about him hasn't changed. Earlier today, I was 50/50 on lynching Fenix or sc2system, since my 3rd top 3 pick (ninja4ever) started posting, but then sc2system started acting... Reaaaally scummy.
I'll point to just one thing: Between his vote for Rise Of Fenix and his vote for No Lynch (due, according to him, to Rise now contributing), Rise Of Fenix has ONLY ONE POST. And it says:
That's a contribution?! That's even more useless than the rest! I don't know why he chose to vote no lynch at that moment, but his reason makes NO SENSE. Maybe it had to do with him being under attack and trying to make us think he was just a little peaceful guy?
... And then he votes for Virtu out of nowhere. Pure bandwagon jumping, and not one that was going anywhere either way. Virtu hasn't been scummish at all, and while he had a few hours of inactivity, when he posts it at least makes sense.
I don't know if we'd get more info out of a Rise of Fenix lynch, but it doesn't matter to me when I'm getting huuuuuge scumvibes from sc2master.
-Just thought it was worth mentioning the defense on Virtu
Alot of BlueyD's filter is that of a sheep. He is a follower, the opposite of Nova_Terra's case on him.
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 25 2012 06:39 BlueyD wrote:
On Rise and sc2system: Short version: Rise was most likely just stupid, not much of a loss if we lynched him and turned up green. sc2system seemed less stupid and just as chaotic as Rise, hence more scummy to me. Not gonna add more on this, it's taken enough space already.
---
On Artanis and Seviro: I thought Artanis's case wasn't strong enough to consider a day 1 lynch, but I took notice of it. I'm not gonna clutter up the threat by repeating what he said, but Seviro hasn't shown a strong opinion all game that was really his. He seems to be able to appreciate other people's logic while never coming up with his own.
I also didn't like that when he got voted on by Artanis, he just voted Artanis back. And I didn't like that he had a "pressure but no lynch" opinion on lurkers at first, but then switched his vote to Virtu for his period of inactivity, despite many ok Virtu posts before. "Flexible in opinion" is how I'd describe Seviro, and that's not a compliment...
On Rise and sc2system: Short version: Rise was most likely just stupid, not much of a loss if we lynched him and turned up green. sc2system seemed less stupid and just as chaotic as Rise, hence more scummy to me. Not gonna add more on this, it's taken enough space already.
---
On Artanis and Seviro: I thought Artanis's case wasn't strong enough to consider a day 1 lynch, but I took notice of it. I'm not gonna clutter up the threat by repeating what he said, but Seviro hasn't shown a strong opinion all game that was really his. He seems to be able to appreciate other people's logic while never coming up with his own.
I also didn't like that when he got voted on by Artanis, he just voted Artanis back. And I didn't like that he had a "pressure but no lynch" opinion on lurkers at first, but then switched his vote to Virtu for his period of inactivity, despite many ok Virtu posts before. "Flexible in opinion" is how I'd describe Seviro, and that's not a compliment...
Waits for cases to be laid out, comes in and either re-states what they said, or says his opinion on it in a few quick sentences.
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 25 2012 14:08 BlueyD wrote:
On the sc2system hit: Ack! Well, he was just as green as Rise was... Given the suspicions many of us had and mementoss's + virtu's suggestion that a vigi hit him tonight, I think it's fair to assume he was vigi hit and froggy was mafia hit.
On the froggynoddy hit: I don't know what to make of this. He was off my radar. He was neither the most scummy-looking, nor the most active or inactive, nor the most helpful. I can't read anything from this hit.
On Artanis's vigi claim: I'll see whether anyone counterclaims then decide whether to believe you or not.
Tomorrow is MLG finals, I'll be at a barcraft all day, should be back at night though.
On the sc2system hit: Ack! Well, he was just as green as Rise was... Given the suspicions many of us had and mementoss's + virtu's suggestion that a vigi hit him tonight, I think it's fair to assume he was vigi hit and froggy was mafia hit.
On the froggynoddy hit: I don't know what to make of this. He was off my radar. He was neither the most scummy-looking, nor the most active or inactive, nor the most helpful. I can't read anything from this hit.
On Artanis's vigi claim: I'll see whether anyone counterclaims then decide whether to believe you or not.
Tomorrow is MLG finals, I'll be at a barcraft all day, should be back at night though.
Well you obviously didn't look, or you don't want Michael to be noticed? Is that it?
What you say is exactly what mafia wanted to do with this hit, a semi active contributer, that the town couldn't get information off of. You re-stating this information is suspicious, and tries to make it seem like you don't want people to look into it.
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 26 2012 15:17 BlueyD wrote:
The best cases by far right now are those brought up against Seviro and Nova. The case against Gossamer by Virtu was unconvincing, especially since he failed to post the whole thing... And the case against michaelthe is weak as well: He defends himself well against Artanis’s legit pressure, and Seviro’s case on him feels very forced to begin with.
Nova:
Not much to say here, just read mementoss’s post on him, he does an excellent job pointing out the inconsistencies, weak cases brought up, and different metagame of Nova this game... Nova’s defense, in return, is spectacularly bad: He makes the most unreasonably long-winded post in the thread full of real life spam, and explains his ‘new metagame’ as a way to get closer to mementoss’s play, even though he’s actually getting farther from it in my opinion. Scummy behavior in my eyes.
I also think it’s funny that he’s leaning “scum” for Seviro and “null leaning scummy” for me, but I’m the one who got FoSed.
Seviro:
I think he’s scum too. Erratic voting record, most posts giving no new contributions, some stuff about ‘pressure but no lynch’ which was really silly, etc... It’s all been pointed out before me so I won’t repeat. But I will point out a few posts (or parts of posts):
+ Show Spoiler +
You had no opinion, really?! On a vigi hit?!
How seviro’s case against mementoss begins:
+ Show Spoiler +
1. These 2 were a lot of people’s first 2 suspects. Pointing out that they were mementoss’s as well is not worth it.
2. He pointed out the lurking of people who had been pointed out by Gossemer and Ninja4ever, which makes him the first to make these cases? Contradiction, anyone?
And I like how you position yourself as a defender of Rise, twice...
+ Show Spoiler +
When your only time specifically mentioning Rise day 1 is this:
+ Show Spoiler +
He was commenting on Rise's "I will likely post my thoughts about 1 hour before the deadline." comment at that point... I get it now! That must be the old “defend him by pointing out his scummy behavior” strategy! Yeah, I don’t see it too often…
I’d be fine with lynching any of these two at the moment. They may very well both be scum. But since I only vote once…
##Vote: Seviro
The best cases by far right now are those brought up against Seviro and Nova. The case against Gossamer by Virtu was unconvincing, especially since he failed to post the whole thing... And the case against michaelthe is weak as well: He defends himself well against Artanis’s legit pressure, and Seviro’s case on him feels very forced to begin with.
Nova:
Not much to say here, just read mementoss’s post on him, he does an excellent job pointing out the inconsistencies, weak cases brought up, and different metagame of Nova this game... Nova’s defense, in return, is spectacularly bad: He makes the most unreasonably long-winded post in the thread full of real life spam, and explains his ‘new metagame’ as a way to get closer to mementoss’s play, even though he’s actually getting farther from it in my opinion. Scummy behavior in my eyes.
I also think it’s funny that he’s leaning “scum” for Seviro and “null leaning scummy” for me, but I’m the one who got FoSed.
Seviro:
I think he’s scum too. Erratic voting record, most posts giving no new contributions, some stuff about ‘pressure but no lynch’ which was really silly, etc... It’s all been pointed out before me so I won’t repeat. But I will point out a few posts (or parts of posts):
+ Show Spoiler +
“I had no position on this, and since it seems that I don't have opinion or I just use others argument I might as well just not post.”
You had no opinion, really?! On a vigi hit?!
How seviro’s case against mementoss begins:
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 26 2012 03:04 Seviro wrote:
He was the first one to make a real case against Rise Of Fenix which really started the train rolling in my opinion. While Rise was doing a great job of sinking himself into bad and bad post, peolple started to look more into it after this case. He also was the first one to point out sc2system lurkerness.These two people had already been mentionned beforehand, respectively by Gossemer and Ninja4ever. My point is, not that it mean anything since it was the same for a lot of people, his two main suspect flipped town which is worth pointing out I think.
He was the first one to make a real case against Rise Of Fenix which really started the train rolling in my opinion. While Rise was doing a great job of sinking himself into bad and bad post, peolple started to look more into it after this case. He also was the first one to point out sc2system lurkerness.These two people had already been mentionned beforehand, respectively by Gossemer and Ninja4ever. My point is, not that it mean anything since it was the same for a lot of people, his two main suspect flipped town which is worth pointing out I think.
1. These 2 were a lot of people’s first 2 suspects. Pointing out that they were mementoss’s as well is not worth it.
2. He pointed out the lurking of people who had been pointed out by Gossemer and Ninja4ever, which makes him the first to make these cases? Contradiction, anyone?
And I like how you position yourself as a defender of Rise, twice...
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 24 2012 05:44 Seviro wrote:
Where in the world do you see in this post that I am following the Rise Of Fenix train? Hell i'm like the only one that is trying to defend him.
On March 26 2012 03:39 Seviro wrote:
What are you talking about?. Literally all the EFFING day I've been DEFENDING Fenix in hope that he would come up with something useful, which didn'T happen.
Where in the world do you see in this post that I am following the Rise Of Fenix train? Hell i'm like the only one that is trying to defend him.
On March 26 2012 03:39 Seviro wrote:
What are you talking about?. Literally all the EFFING day I've been DEFENDING Fenix in hope that he would come up with something useful, which didn'T happen.
When your only time specifically mentioning Rise day 1 is this:
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 23 2012 06:07 Seviro wrote:
And about Rise, posting your thought about 1 hour before the deadline is possibly the more scummy thing you could do as the deadline is relatively late and a lot of people are not around at the time. Voting at this time is basically a ninja vote and it is not right to do so since, as Nova said we wouldn't have enough time to discuss about it and change our vote if need be.
And about Rise, posting your thought about 1 hour before the deadline is possibly the more scummy thing you could do as the deadline is relatively late and a lot of people are not around at the time. Voting at this time is basically a ninja vote and it is not right to do so since, as Nova said we wouldn't have enough time to discuss about it and change our vote if need be.
He was commenting on Rise's "I will likely post my thoughts about 1 hour before the deadline." comment at that point... I get it now! That must be the old “defend him by pointing out his scummy behavior” strategy! Yeah, I don’t see it too often…
I’d be fine with lynching any of these two at the moment. They may very well both be scum. But since I only vote once…
##Vote: Seviro
Note the soft defense on Michael here. Also note he says almost the exact same thing as Ninja4ever. "Nova and Seviro are clearly the best cases, michael and goss cases should be disregarded".
Does the same as usual, says hey look at this guys case. Its pretty good. I find him suspicious now too.
His case against Seviro:
His first point against Seviro's no opinion on a vigi hit is legit, but over exhagerated.
He then goes onto discredit Seviro's posts about me, which in turn were decent points that shoulda been brought up. Scum trying to defend me to look townish, cause I will ultimately be murdered before I am lynched?
Also note how Michael and BlueyD single handidly got the bandwagon on Seviro (townie) going. The only reason Nova_Terra was third on the bandwagon it seems was to keep himself from being lynched.
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 27 2012 00:21 BlueyD wrote:
Seviro, let me repost the 3 things you consider defenses of Rise, with bolded parts:
Okay, so he plays poorly, looks suspicious, and feels like obvious scum to you. Great defense! It doesn't feel like you're defending him at all to me, since you bring up something I can bold in every single post. I'm not at 1/1 or at 1/4 now, I'm at 4/4.
Truth is when someone looks this bad, we lynch him to know what he is. That's how the game is played. He was a decent lynch target from the start and the only defense you could have brought out was "someone else looks even worse", as I did.
Never try to defend me, by the way.
Seviro, let me repost the 3 things you consider defenses of Rise, with bolded parts:
Okay, so he plays poorly, looks suspicious, and feels like obvious scum to you. Great defense! It doesn't feel like you're defending him at all to me, since you bring up something I can bold in every single post. I'm not at 1/1 or at 1/4 now, I'm at 4/4.
Truth is when someone looks this bad, we lynch him to know what he is. That's how the game is played. He was a decent lynch target from the start and the only defense you could have brought out was "someone else looks even worse", as I did.
Never try to defend me, by the way.
Bolding the wrong parts, to make it seem super contradicting, when really it wasn't. Initially when I skimmed this I thought it was a decent point. But re-brought to my attention by the late Seviro I realize it was terrible.
1. Basically says, I think he is a bad town. Which is a defense because ultimately we want to lynch scum
2. "more like I don't see him being more scummy than anyone else right now." should have been bolded.
3. Seems to obvious to be scum.
So he basically said three times he said he wasn't convinced he was scum. Which means he was more comfortable with another lynch. Which is defending in a sort. You twisting his words against him out of context, and bolding the wrong parts to make him look worse is scum work Mr, scummy indeed.
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 27 2012 06:59 BlueyD wrote:
I don't know if we can see Seviro's voting on himself as town-favored, actually. We've already agreed that it's critical we lynch a mafia tonight, so if he's town the good move is certainly not to vote for his own lynching, especially since his take on Nova (our other target) is 'slightly leaning scum'. I would rather have seen a defense than this, or a "yeah, I haven't been great, but Nova is worse, lynch him and give me another chance".
I still stand by my idea that both might be red, and they're playing against each other so that the survivor won't be suspicious, given that it seems obvious one of the two is about to get lynched.
------
I want to draw attention to michaelthe's voteswitch. Vote count at the moment of his switch:
Seviro (6): michaelthe, BlueyD, Nova_Terra, Artanis[Xp], Mementoss, Seviro
Nova_Terra (2): Ninja4ever, Gossemerr
And then he switches to Nova, saying we need 6 votes on a guy - but we do before he switches, and not after! He argues that mafia benefits from a no-lynch, but he's actually getting us closer to that himself. Now Seviro just has to switch back at the last minute and we have a no-lynch... So we have here a nice case of "actions go left, words go right" by michaelthe.
I don't know if we can see Seviro's voting on himself as town-favored, actually. We've already agreed that it's critical we lynch a mafia tonight, so if he's town the good move is certainly not to vote for his own lynching, especially since his take on Nova (our other target) is 'slightly leaning scum'. I would rather have seen a defense than this, or a "yeah, I haven't been great, but Nova is worse, lynch him and give me another chance".
I still stand by my idea that both might be red, and they're playing against each other so that the survivor won't be suspicious, given that it seems obvious one of the two is about to get lynched.
------
I want to draw attention to michaelthe's voteswitch. Vote count at the moment of his switch:
Seviro (6): michaelthe, BlueyD, Nova_Terra, Artanis[Xp], Mementoss, Seviro
Nova_Terra (2): Ninja4ever, Gossemerr
And then he switches to Nova, saying we need 6 votes on a guy - but we do before he switches, and not after! He argues that mafia benefits from a no-lynch, but he's actually getting us closer to that himself. Now Seviro just has to switch back at the last minute and we have a no-lynch... So we have here a nice case of "actions go left, words go right" by michaelthe.
Same boat as michael here, thinks its most likely both are scum. Goes on to disagree with crazy Michaels shit storm, as it would distance him and michael as one of them would probably get lynched tomorrow.
On March 27 2012 07:13 BlueyD wrote:
Sure, michaelthe, we can decide we're not counting the 2 guys we suspect as mafia. Then the vote count was 4-2 and it's now 3-3. We're still farther away from a lynch than we were before.
Sure, michaelthe, we can decide we're not counting the 2 guys we suspect as mafia. Then the vote count was 4-2 and it's now 3-3. We're still farther away from a lynch than we were before.
I think with BlueyD's most recent post he is trying to bus michael. To give mafia a chance to win after he is lynched.
WIFOM:
BlueyD helped the bandwagon on seviro.
Initially always on the same side of the vote as themichael initially.
Similar ideas to ninja4ever
Nova Tunnelled BlueyD slighty, if BlueyD is town Nova is probably scum and vice versa
Questions to BlueyD
Reply to Seviros last post (guess you did now)
Who do you think will die tonight/why?
Who do you think is logically next to go after Michael flips scum?
Overall Opinion
Scum-buddies with Michael. The semi-afterthefact-contributer on the Mafia team.
3. Ninja4Ever
Filter Analysis
First 3 posts,
I will try to post later
I will try to post later
I will try to post later Drunk
Stalling, trying to let himself lurk early in the day.
On March 23 2012 17:59 Ninja4ever. wrote:
Some thoughts before going to school :
About the kill lurker strategy : it can make sense, mafia are often lurking as it gives them a way to not be judged and therefore not make mistake. At worst a not so useful townie is killed. Seem like the best thing we can come up with with the lack of information we have on day one.
Although, I'd like to say that, since from the very first posts, we said our strategy would very like be to hit on the lurker list. the probabilities of a mafia lurking aren't that great.
It's also interesting to think about HOW a lurking mafia, if there is one, would react to such a strategy ? Two things come to my mind : an inexperienced mafia would all of a sudden start posting a lot more than he previously was, and a more experienced one would probably stop lurking just enough not to be considered a lurker anymore. Townies wouldn't change their behavior.
I'll analyse more on the lurker list and on the rise of fenix case when I'm back from school, gotta go for now.
Some thoughts before going to school :
About the kill lurker strategy : it can make sense, mafia are often lurking as it gives them a way to not be judged and therefore not make mistake. At worst a not so useful townie is killed. Seem like the best thing we can come up with with the lack of information we have on day one.
Although, I'd like to say that, since from the very first posts, we said our strategy would very like be to hit on the lurker list. the probabilities of a mafia lurking aren't that great.
It's also interesting to think about HOW a lurking mafia, if there is one, would react to such a strategy ? Two things come to my mind : an inexperienced mafia would all of a sudden start posting a lot more than he previously was, and a more experienced one would probably stop lurking just enough not to be considered a lurker anymore. Townies wouldn't change their behavior.
I'll analyse more on the lurker list and on the rise of fenix case when I'm back from school, gotta go for now.
You would know how a lurking mafia would act, cause you are one. Notes before he is on the list of inactivity lurker lynches. Then comes in and agrees with lurker lynch. Then says wouldn't a lurker mafia post a lot more? Which he does, he basically was posting for the sake of not being a lurker.
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 24 2012 02:33 Ninja4ever. wrote:
Ok I FINALLY have time to write everything I've been thinking.
Rise Of Fenix case :
Kinda hard to speak on it as most of the things have already been said. All his posts are either contradicting each other or not adding real content. The question is, is it just bad play or mafia play ? After going through all of his post, I didn't find a lot that could help mafia, only these two little things :
Posts basically saying we HAVE to lynch, what ever happens.
No lynch on day one when we have so few information might be the best find to do. A lynch on day one is, especially in a newbie game, a good way for mafia to start, as we have too little information and too little experience to get a mafia.
Now, I know in the previous game town tried the no lynch on day one strategy and it failed, but the database if just too small to make any deduction from it.
All in all, I still prefere our alternative to pressure lurkers (It is really important that we don’t end up like last game where all the mafia was active against a few remaining townies + lurkers), what I wanted to say is that trying to enforce a lynch strategy is something a mafia would totally do.
I’d say it’s 60-40 beteween mafia and townie bad play. Still not enough for me to jump on the lynch band wagon. I still prefer to pressure lurkers, and switch my vote to Rise of Fenix if everyone is active enough. Therefore :
##Vote: sc2system (sorry bro, we're the 2 kind of lurkers left, can't vote for myself)
The analysts case :
People that actually seem tu put a lot of thinking into their analys are probably as important as blues. The thing is, if one of them is mafia he can screw the town pretty hard, making it really important to know wether or not they're townies. For exemple, two analyses in particular come to my mind :
1°) Mementoss on Rise of Fenix
It made perfect sense and I agreed with mostly every thing. Really nothing suspicious there.
2°) Artosis on Seviro
I don’t find your analysis based on strong enough evidences to warrant a lynch, your main argument being he posted too much redondancy and too little content, am I right ? Too me this is kinda natural when you have so few information, and it looks like every thing has been pretty much said. You could be trying to gain credit as a mafia and could also be a mafia that doesn’t want to look like he’s jumping on the Fenix wagon. By posting this analys you’d be killing two birds with one stone. As I said though, this is only really slight suspicion (around 55-45 mafia-townie, in my eyes) and even I is more suspicous at the moment, given my inactivity on the past couple days.
Ok I FINALLY have time to write everything I've been thinking.
Rise Of Fenix case :
Kinda hard to speak on it as most of the things have already been said. All his posts are either contradicting each other or not adding real content. The question is, is it just bad play or mafia play ? After going through all of his post, I didn't find a lot that could help mafia, only these two little things :
Posts basically saying we HAVE to lynch, what ever happens.
No lynch on day one when we have so few information might be the best find to do. A lynch on day one is, especially in a newbie game, a good way for mafia to start, as we have too little information and too little experience to get a mafia.
Now, I know in the previous game town tried the no lynch on day one strategy and it failed, but the database if just too small to make any deduction from it.
All in all, I still prefere our alternative to pressure lurkers (It is really important that we don’t end up like last game where all the mafia was active against a few remaining townies + lurkers), what I wanted to say is that trying to enforce a lynch strategy is something a mafia would totally do.
I’d say it’s 60-40 beteween mafia and townie bad play. Still not enough for me to jump on the lynch band wagon. I still prefer to pressure lurkers, and switch my vote to Rise of Fenix if everyone is active enough. Therefore :
##Vote: sc2system (sorry bro, we're the 2 kind of lurkers left, can't vote for myself)
The analysts case :
People that actually seem tu put a lot of thinking into their analys are probably as important as blues. The thing is, if one of them is mafia he can screw the town pretty hard, making it really important to know wether or not they're townies. For exemple, two analyses in particular come to my mind :
1°) Mementoss on Rise of Fenix
It made perfect sense and I agreed with mostly every thing. Really nothing suspicious there.
2°) Artosis on Seviro
I don’t find your analysis based on strong enough evidences to warrant a lynch, your main argument being he posted too much redondancy and too little content, am I right ? Too me this is kinda natural when you have so few information, and it looks like every thing has been pretty much said. You could be trying to gain credit as a mafia and could also be a mafia that doesn’t want to look like he’s jumping on the Fenix wagon. By posting this analys you’d be killing two birds with one stone. As I said though, this is only really slight suspicion (around 55-45 mafia-townie, in my eyes) and even I is more suspicous at the moment, given my inactivity on the past couple days.
Says no-lynch might be okay day 1. Leaving town with little to no information. Also again talking about the mafias situation, lynching wrong helps them get to a good start. Town not getting information day 1 and getting a free kill is also a damn good start. So much talk about the mafia situation makes me think you are mafia, also its very WIFOM.
Pressures sc2system with a vote, but mainly to get the attention off himself as he notes. Only mafia would be scared of having attention on themselves this early. A townie can get rid of it by just posting non scummy things.
Doesn't mention the scum slip by artanis. Probably because michael is working on his huge tunnelling case on it and doens't wanna be associated with that.
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 24 2012 07:07 Ninja4ever. wrote:
It seems that we don't really have any lurker left to be honest, with virtu posting soon every one seem to be active at least to some extent. We should really start voting based on who we find the most suspect.
I already voted sc2system based on its inactivity, saying I'd switch to RoF if he'd become active enough. The thing is he did post more but in a very scumy way. (the confuse people part is very relevant). Therefore I'm keeping my vote for now.
Although, as mementoss said (who looks the greenest of us all in my eyes) we really need to set on someone if we want to get a lynch
It seems that we don't really have any lurker left to be honest, with virtu posting soon every one seem to be active at least to some extent. We should really start voting based on who we find the most suspect.
I already voted sc2system based on its inactivity, saying I'd switch to RoF if he'd become active enough. The thing is he did post more but in a very scumy way. (the confuse people part is very relevant). Therefore I'm keeping my vote for now.
Although, as mementoss said (who looks the greenest of us all in my eyes) we really need to set on someone if we want to get a lynch
Everyone is active, there is no lurker, but i want to kill a lurker, I will vote sc2system. If sc2system is active I will switch to RoF bandwagon.
It seems like a mafia trait to say to not only say im green, but to agree with me, restate what I said, and over exhagerate how confirmed town I am, when I am only confirmed town from my own perspective.
Then comes in to say Artanis is 100% confirmed town after vigshot claim. He seems to be more focused on confirming town and getting rid of lurkers, than actual scum hunting.
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 26 2012 03:52 Ninja4ever. wrote:
So let's look at who was brought up recently : seviro, Michaelthe, Gossemerr and nova. I find the cases on michaelthe and gossemerr to be very weak, while the one on nova and Seviro to be clearly the most appealing, with nova being slightly more suspect.
The thing being, I have a two pages short story to write for tommorow, so I won't be able to correctly expand on why as I lack in time. here are some explanations though :
Mementoss case on nova was great. At this point it doesn't matter even matter wether or not Mementoss is scummy, I find his explanation to be too good.
Seviro lack of content in his posts and overall undeciveness make him look like someone that want to add chaos to the thread, very scummy like.
Michaelthe, mostly suspected because he's " repeating too much stuff " which I find to be the least important tell when there's so few information to work with, in the beginning stage. He just seem like someone who doesn't have so much time and wanted to show he's active cause of the lurker pressure. Also suspected because he was quick to jump on artanis bandwagon, which was to me one of the two most logical thing to do at the time (the other one being voting against RoF)
Gossemerr : mostly suspected because he wanted to lynch sc2system but not vigkill him. Don't think it's telling, as artanis said the fact that sc2system turned out green makes it kinda irrevelant, and he might have simply thought that sc2system wasn't suspect enough to waste one vighit.
I won't be much more active tommorow sadly, but will be a lot more from monday night !
For now :
##Vote: Nova_Terra
But it can greatly change depending on nova's and seviro's defense.
So let's look at who was brought up recently : seviro, Michaelthe, Gossemerr and nova. I find the cases on michaelthe and gossemerr to be very weak, while the one on nova and Seviro to be clearly the most appealing, with nova being slightly more suspect.
The thing being, I have a two pages short story to write for tommorow, so I won't be able to correctly expand on why as I lack in time. here are some explanations though :
Mementoss case on nova was great. At this point it doesn't matter even matter wether or not Mementoss is scummy, I find his explanation to be too good.
Seviro lack of content in his posts and overall undeciveness make him look like someone that want to add chaos to the thread, very scummy like.
Michaelthe, mostly suspected because he's " repeating too much stuff " which I find to be the least important tell when there's so few information to work with, in the beginning stage. He just seem like someone who doesn't have so much time and wanted to show he's active cause of the lurker pressure. Also suspected because he was quick to jump on artanis bandwagon, which was to me one of the two most logical thing to do at the time (the other one being voting against RoF)
Gossemerr : mostly suspected because he wanted to lynch sc2system but not vigkill him. Don't think it's telling, as artanis said the fact that sc2system turned out green makes it kinda irrevelant, and he might have simply thought that sc2system wasn't suspect enough to waste one vighit.
I won't be much more active tommorow sadly, but will be a lot more from monday night !
For now :
##Vote: Nova_Terra
But it can greatly change depending on nova's and seviro's defense.
Says something really similar to blueyD, Seviro and Nova cases are good while Goss Michael cases are bad. Leads the town into primarily focusing on those two cases for the day rather than exploring into Michael. Also agrees with my opinion once again. Stays away from bandwagoning the BlueyD Michael, Seviro vote.
Than uses Seviro's self vote with some WIFOM to jump on the Seviro bandwagon with his scum friends.
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 27 2012 08:52 Ninja4ever. wrote:
I decided to simply ignore Seviro self vote, it can equally mean he's a townie trying to prove he'll do anything for town or a scum that wants us to think that.
Well, putting more thought into that, it's an interesting move. Look at what happened earlier :
Seviro is suspected. He seems to be a rather agressive player, and answer with his read on everyone. One could expect he would totally go all out on the most suspicious person of the moment : Nova. So what does he say about him ?
+ Show Spoiler +
This is weird to me. It looks like he's trying to avoid giving his opinion on Nova (slightly scum ? Remember that this is just after Nova's very weak defense), and prefer to go on the kinda weak michael case. Why would he avoid pointing his finger on Nova ? Well, I feel that :
if seviro is townie, he'd jump on Nova's neck asap
if seviro is mafia and therefore know Nova is townie, he'd jump on that very suspicious case
BUT if they're both mafia, it makes sense that seviro is trying to avoid as much contact with nova.
What kinda annoys me in this is the fact that nova didn't hesitate one second to say " I'll speak on saviro later " during his defense. May be they just didn't communicated before hand ? Seems kinda unlikely. May be nova wants to give seviro credit when he's lynched, seeing how strong his case was ? May be once again, but this become too WIFOM to be of any real interest.
What's happening now ? Seviro self vote. What's interesting is that it happens just after mementoss said something among the lines " well they might bu just 2 mafia busing each other " and here we go : not busing anymore.
All in all, it makes sense that they would be two mafias, which might be too good to be true. I'll personally go for seviro for two reasons : firstly he's the one with the most vote at the moment and I absolutly want a lynch. Secondly, there's basically two leaders here : mementoss and artanis. Artanis, the greenest of all people, say go for seviro. Then mementoss comes and tries basically a kinda last second and very slightly suspect switch. I trust artanis more, so I'll go with his plan, even though I think both are scum really. (nova and seviro huh ? not artanis and mementoss)
I decided to simply ignore Seviro self vote, it can equally mean he's a townie trying to prove he'll do anything for town or a scum that wants us to think that.
Well, putting more thought into that, it's an interesting move. Look at what happened earlier :
Seviro is suspected. He seems to be a rather agressive player, and answer with his read on everyone. One could expect he would totally go all out on the most suspicious person of the moment : Nova. So what does he say about him ?
+ Show Spoiler +
Nova_TerraDon't know at all, I'd say slightly leaning scum mostly because of the meta difference from last game as stated by Mementoss. That doesn'T mean much since it was his first game but I feel that his defense have been pointlessly long. He is helping the discussion by asking question which is good but he seems scared when it is his turn to answer which is a scum behaviour, if you have nothing to hide you shouldn't be scared
This is weird to me. It looks like he's trying to avoid giving his opinion on Nova (slightly scum ? Remember that this is just after Nova's very weak defense), and prefer to go on the kinda weak michael case. Why would he avoid pointing his finger on Nova ? Well, I feel that :
if seviro is townie, he'd jump on Nova's neck asap
if seviro is mafia and therefore know Nova is townie, he'd jump on that very suspicious case
BUT if they're both mafia, it makes sense that seviro is trying to avoid as much contact with nova.
What kinda annoys me in this is the fact that nova didn't hesitate one second to say " I'll speak on saviro later " during his defense. May be they just didn't communicated before hand ? Seems kinda unlikely. May be nova wants to give seviro credit when he's lynched, seeing how strong his case was ? May be once again, but this become too WIFOM to be of any real interest.
What's happening now ? Seviro self vote. What's interesting is that it happens just after mementoss said something among the lines " well they might bu just 2 mafia busing each other " and here we go : not busing anymore.
All in all, it makes sense that they would be two mafias, which might be too good to be true. I'll personally go for seviro for two reasons : firstly he's the one with the most vote at the moment and I absolutly want a lynch. Secondly, there's basically two leaders here : mementoss and artanis. Artanis, the greenest of all people, say go for seviro. Then mementoss comes and tries basically a kinda last second and very slightly suspect switch. I trust artanis more, so I'll go with his plan, even though I think both are scum really. (nova and seviro huh ? not artanis and mementoss)
Also agrees with what both BlueyD and Michael said. They are both scum. Hmmm maybe trying to get us to tunnel Nova day 3? Basically also says, I'll go with Seviro now cause im a bandwagoner. If seviro was town, which he was, he shoulda been pushing whoever he thought was scum the hardest, not automatically going OMGUS to Nova to save his own ass, not voting himself.
Basically just a lot of agreeing, very safe passive play. A lot of fluff some WIFOM for ya.
WIFOM
Says similar views to BlueyD that leads town into Seviro vs Nova all day.
Waits to bandwagon Seviro
Questions/statements to ninja:
Why don't you ever take the initiative to scum hunt? Why would you rather confirm townies all day?
Why are you such a lurker?
How come these similarities keep poking up with you BlueyD and Michael?
What are your thoughts on Seviros final words/The michael Lynch day 3?
Overall Opinion
The Passive Posting Scum Lurker
I don't give a shit if this gets me killed tonight if it can help the town get in the right direction for the win. Also, if I soak up a kill Artanis the confirmed townie stays alive which keeps the scum narrowed down. Was thinking of doing a shorter analysis on the other players leaning Town/Null for me. Might post later. Too tired now. I will at least give my list of most suspicious to least suspicious.
1. Michael
2. BlueyD
3. Ninja4ever
4. Nova Terra
5. Virtu
6. Gossemerr
7. Artanis
8. Mementoss
should i tell you my thought on it?
