EPT
Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia IX - Page 30
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
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virtu
United Kingdom147 Posts
On April 03 2012 00:55 Nova_Terra wrote: virtu who would you have voted for? xD BlueyD, purely because I had literally zero chance to even read the thread over the last few days, so I decided to follow Mementoss (my strongest town read up to my absence). I did however think you were scum since the end of day 2, because the game I followed the most was the last mini mafia and your first game, and saw your play there. Even toning things down from that game your play was entirely different. Well played though! | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
Probulous, you are so incredibly handsome that if you were cast in Twilight as Edward the fans would be outraged if you DIDN'T sparkle. Seviro, you are so smart that if you were in a horror movie everyone would get out alive. Well, except for the hot girl who has sex in the first scenes. It isn't a horror movie if she doesn't die... screw it, you save her too, you are just that awesome. | ||
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Janaan
United States381 Posts
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jaj22
United Kingdom1376 Posts
Seviro martyring himself just as he started looked really townie was... depressing. | ||
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michaelthe
United States359 Posts
On April 02 2012 20:33 Mementoss wrote: Lol fuck. God dammit Nova, I shoulda kept my original gut feeling on you. At least I was right about michael/ninja. The part that killed us was Nova/Seviro day. I wanted to stay on Nova, and did until like 6 hours before deadline from start of day, but no one was budging to give that side majority and Seviro's self vote killed us. If he woulda posted his last post earlier I think either Michael or Nova woulda died that night. GG We knew me either me or nova would be f*d if we just straight up killed Seviro. We discussed busing Nova on day 2, a ballsy strategy, but Ninja started the vote on him that day and I would have secured it- making us both look clean. However, Mementoss and Seviro posted shortly before. We already discussed the strategy and didn't think too much about it. But the Seviro self-vote and AFK made things get turned on their head. The outcome wasn't too bad for us since it caused so much confusion, and made a strong line between me and Nova (regardless of who died) which wasn't questioned enough later. The real shame is that inactive players realllly kill these newbie games, and there isn't much of a way to stop that. We had several people not contribute the entire game. Mafia would have still secured the kill on BlueyD on the final day, but inactives still make things tough. GG all, it was fun  | ||
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michaelthe
United States359 Posts
On April 02 2012 14:53 DoYouHas wrote: I will do an analysis of this game if you all would like. (Don't want to just be speechifying) If so, it will have to wait until SOAF mafia is through as that will be demanding my attention. I would appreciate this, but if you are busy that's fine. | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
Analysis Mafia Let's start with your first posts as all of them had scumtells. Nova_Terra- Click Your first post was confident and playful. Especially in a newbie game, where first posts are really awkward, the level of playfulness you displayed is out of place with a townie POV. Particularly the phrase "we don't bite, much" seemed scummy to me. Then in your second post you start talking about lynching lurkers and your confidence is gone. By the end of your post you set yourself up to be ok with whatever direction policy discussion goes. Confidence in trivial posts and wishy-washy stances on things that matter is classic scum. Michaelthe- Click Your first post's only scummy statement was "Finally, I read that even mislynching a townie can be beneficial." Most townies will not make a statement like this, and if they do they will usually soften it or be roundabout. However, there is an underlying contradiction in your first post. You say you want to lynch lurkers, but then you say that it is ok to lynch townies due to the information you can gain. The problem is that lynching a lurker gives you the least amount of information (if they flip town) for the next day. Those 2 things make your first post fairly scummy. Ninja4ever.- Click Your first posts set you up nicely to be the lurker scum of the team. The only things in them that might have tipped your hand was that you didn't add anything to the discussion, and you seemed to me to be posting because you felt under pressure to post (where there wasn't really any) before you had anything to say. Not really scummy, but it might have put you on my radar. All 3 of you really could have been pegged as scum day 1 if Rise of Fenix didn't cover you. You all actually took a big risk with the Rise of Fenix case. All 3 of you pushed the RoF bandwagon that Mementoss started without voting for RoF. You also set Mementoss up to be a town leader by uniformly supporting his case, a mistake you compounded by not killing him night1. Nova was pretty spammy without much content. Avoided actually giving his opinion and just agreed with 3 different townies, especially Mementoss. The buddying coming from Nova and the suspicion coming from Mementoss gives you a piece of valuable information. It is extremely unlikely that Nova and Mementoss are both scum. (Most interaction between scum like this comes day2 or later when mafia feel established and comfortable. It is rare that mafia openly buddy each other day1 in a newbie game.) The other is that Nova is more suspicious of the 2, so he should have been pressured. Ninja4ever. I would have lynched you in a heartbeat day1. First off, this post: + Show Spoiler + On March 23 2012 17:59 Ninja4ever. wrote: Some thoughts before going to school : About the kill lurker strategy : it can make sense, mafia are often lurking as it gives them a way to not be judged and therefore not make mistake. At worst a not so useful townie is killed. Seem like the best thing we can come up with with the lack of information we have on day one. Although, I'd like to say that, since from the very first posts, we said our strategy would very like be to hit on the lurker list. the probabilities of a mafia lurking aren't that great. It's also interesting to think about HOW a lurking mafia, if there is one, would react to such a strategy ? Two things come to my mind : an inexperienced mafia would all of a sudden start posting a lot more than he previously was, and a more experienced one would probably stop lurking just enough not to be considered a lurker anymore. Townies wouldn't change their behavior. I'll analyse more on the lurker list and on the rise of fenix case when I'm back from school, gotta go for now.
2. Probability of mafia being in the lurkers is low. 3. How would a lurking mafia act? (WIFOM) 4. If a lurker stays lurky after pressure they are townie. You scumslip the exact way that Artanis[Xp] blue slipped. You are paying an inordinate amount of attention to WIFOM about a lurking scum (which happens to be what you are) and it feels out of place in the thread. Then you get to this post. You "defend" RoF, but not really because you are pointing parts of his filter that could be mafia agenda and saying you are 60% on him being scum. Then you are back to policy talk that is largely unhelpful, voting for a lurker, and identifying valuable targets for mafia to hit during the night. Michaelthe, you were probably the hardest scum to pin down day1. However, your refusal to respond to people being suspicious of you early, instead we get this: + Show Spoiler + On March 23 2012 15:23 michaelthe wrote: I couldn't help but laugh a bit, one of the main criticisms of your play is that when you wanted to accuse me then found out you could vote and change it off you still didnt.... You still arent!Anyways, I was going to post before I went to bed on the issues of the past few hours: On Fenix: The issue is whether he was legitimately confused or had some sort of contradiction. One of the things that caught my eye when Mementoss lined up Fenix's posts where these two lines: Someone pointed out that voting last minute appears scummy, but then he insists he meant vote and not post thoughts. The idea of him voting late became somewhat reasonable when we found out he didn't know you could change your vote, but the idea that he initially posted thoughts when he meant votes is still odd. Even with English as a second language, thoughts and votes are not the same. The other analysis of Fenix was based on a few other minor contradictions such as accusing without voting, saying he would vote for me but not (and again here...) and a few other minor things. The issue is simple- is Fenix just making bad plays, or is he scum making really odd contradictions. Some of the things I thought of when looking at Mementoss' criticism are 1) Most newbies games don't find a mafia in day 1, the analysis is too shaky, 2) Fenix made multiple mistakes with terms and ideas, reinforces the idea that Fenix is just making bad plays... This might be true, but we still have a few people that are lurking really hard. I was hoping to stop lurkers with my vote ultimatum, and it worked (or helped) with a few people. But we still have a few that aren't posting. After thinking about it, I think a vote for one of these is better. They are less helpful than "awful town" and also, it prevents them from being modkilled- which is real bad for the town. On Froggy You came out VERY defensive. I called for lurkers to post, and they did... But hey, that's not my strategy!: Your turn Euro's. See you in the morning. So there are a few ways you could have been found out. Now for the more general things. While it really turned to your advantage to repeatedly avoid killing Mementoss, I think it was a mistake to not hit him night1. He had shown that he was suspicious of Nova, one of the few who was. He was active and taking a leadership role and was a decent analyst. He also had just spearheaded a townie lynch so he was less likely to be protected than he might have been otherwise. I remember from the scum QT that Nova thought that killing him would make Nova look suspicious. However, you can just call that line of reasoning WIFOM and move on. Leaving Mementoss in the game made day2 so much more potentially dangerous for scum. Now for the good things. You played off each other well. By the time LYLO hit there was practically 0 chance for the town due to how well you had positioned yourselves 'against' each other. If any of you died it made at least 1 of the others look town. You managed to break down Mementoss's confidence and other's confidence in him. You maintained 3 very different styles throughout the game, making it harder for people to think of you as a team. You stayed vocal and maintained influence with the town largely without drawing suspicion. Artanis[Xp]'s Vig On March 22 2012 21:12 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Hey guys, just woke up, sorry for not replying yet. 3am is quite late for us Europeans, but I'm here now This is my third or fourth game of TL Mafia, I've organized Insane Mafia before which was an absolutely insane game and a ton of fun. I'm also pro lynching someone on day 1 as lynches are the only reliable way to kill mafia. We don't know if there's a vigilante in the game, but I don't think we can count on it. We should also treat any roleclaims with suspicion. Don't blindly follow anyone that claims, or anyone that makes long posts. Think for yourself and don't jump on bandwagons. From what I've seen in other games this is generally what kills towns. Mafia is by definition more organized so they're better at bandwagoning, though a smart mafia will never have everyone voting on one person. However, if there's any risk of a mafia getting lynched they'll normally switch their votes off so anyone that switches votes at the last minute should be viewed with suspicion. In your very first post you speculate about Vigilantes and roleclaims, this is a pretty bad blue slip and even hints that you might be a Vig since that is the role you seem focused on. Then there are the reasons you should not have shot sc2system. I'm not going to tell you that it was a terrible shot, because it wasn't. However, you should have looked at day1 and seen that the bandwagon that got RoF killed was also pushing sc2system pretty hard. When RoF flipped town you should have realized there is a good chance that the bandwagon was scum controlled and/or pushed. So there was a good chance that town got pigeonholed into focusing 2 townies. The other reason is that you were already conflicted as evidenced in this PM excerpt, "In case you're interested, I almost went for seviro a few times and michaelthe. Really tough choice but decided to go with the safe bet. Virtu also looks suspicious to me." -Artanis[Xp] If you have 3-4 different people you all think are pretty equally suspicious, and you can't narrow that field through reviewing the thread, I would suggest not shooting until you have more information. The only reason I understand your wanting to make sure you shot night 1 was because you were being pressured because of your "scum slip". I can see fear of being lynched day2 driving you, but I still think you would have been better to wait. Town Bad play from town gave the mafia time to establish themselves this game, that was pretty much it. 2 mislynches and a missed vig hit put the town in an extremely difficult position. So here is my general advice for better town play next time.
2. Look for the people pushing mislynches but also trying to avoid the blowback. 3. Keep notes on your reads with explanations. 4. Stay active. 5. Re-evaluate after every mislynch, paying specific attention to day1 where mafia are most likely to have made mistakes. 6. See who fits into scummy archetypes (Nova = Spam without content, Michael = Throwing suspicion around +OMGUS, Ninja = Lurking scum) in order to narrow your search. 7. Summarize events of the game to yourself in order to clarify trends and behaviors. A lot of my critique of the town should be apparent in what I thought they missed about the scum team. Mementoss was clearly town MVP, but he never quite got a handle on the scum team. P.S. Sorry this took so long. I kept putting it off. Also, sorry for the short town section. I just couldn't get myself to read the whole game over again multiple times to get relevant individual town player analysis. | ||
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Mementoss
Canada2595 Posts
I would like to note espeically, If you are town and are at risk of being lynched. Please don't give up. RoF and Seviro both did this. Post a good case of your best scum read, early enough that town can switch. Don't just OMGUS to save your own ass, on the next closest lynchie, pick your best read. Seviro's last post would been 5 hours earlier he might have saved himself. PS Thanks alot for the analysis | ||
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