Normal Mini Mafia I - Page 25
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Bluelightz
Indonesia2463 Posts
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
Just want to know how much time I have left to write up my thoughts. | ||
GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
On February 08 2012 00:27 TheToast wrote: End of night 2 is Feb 8 12:00pm KST correct? Just want to know how much time I have left to write up my thoughts. Night ends in 11hours and 31 minutes | ||
Nisani201
United States1400 Posts
I'll make a case against Sentinel tomorrow though. | ||
[UoN]Sentinel
United States11320 Posts
On February 08 2012 02:11 Nisani201 wrote: I haven't been pushing Sentinel because prplhz was pushing Sinesis. I didn't want to argue against a confirmed townie. The fact that prplhz was pushing Sinesis made me someone doubt is towniness which is why I didn't try to draw votes off of him. I'll make a case against Sentinel tomorrow though. Is that supposed to be "somewhat doubt his towniness?" And why would pushing Sinensis make you doubt his towniness? This isn't scumteam, townies don't know who the other townies are, so they go with their gut instinct. If five of us voted for Sinensis, worst-case scenario 3/7 townies thought he was guilty and said so by voting for him, and two scums who wanted to get rid of him. Personally I'd say 4/7 because I wanted to vote for him before Bluelightz came up. | ||
Nisani201
United States1400 Posts
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
Did any of the rest of you back down because they trust in confirmed townies and because they think I'm a good scumhunter? (I DID kill a scum night1, that's not too bad you know) Kinda looks like you're making this shit up. Anyway, I'm decided. I'm pushing you tomorrow. | ||
GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
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mderg
Germany1739 Posts
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mderg
Germany1739 Posts
Bluelightz: + Show Spoiler + On February 02 2012 18:09 Bluelightz wrote: Sup guys got my role PM anyway, Here's my take on roles 1 Of the vets(Sinani/prplhz) is SCUM(Not sure about this tho if GM wants to screw with us 3/3 Chaos Followers Remain ?/1 Chaos Cultist(s) ?/1 Chaos Fatespinner(s) ?/1 Chaos Plaguebearer(s) ?/0 Chaos Hedonist(s) 9/9 Imperial Forces Remain ?/5/6 Imperial Guardsmen ?/1?Imperial Priest(s) ?/1? Imperial Psyker(s) ?/1?Imperial Stormtrooper(s) ?/1? Imperial Commissar(s) ?/1/2? Tainted By Chaos DISREGARD ANY CLAIMS BESIDES THE TOWN ROLES ABOVE. Also, note to everyone if we have a dt please breadcrumb your results so if you die we can find them Never, NEVER, I repeat never NO LYNCH D1 Anyways to who I think is possibly a traitor among us, ##Vote: Sinensis No one, should decide who to lynch, people themselves should decide who to vote. Also: Fluff "I think we should kill first night, I think we should kill first night again" VOTING How many mislynches till LYLO( including mafia kills, but not delay) not including possible vig kills/dt checks/medic heals/vet hits + Show Spoiler + 12-3 -> 10-3 10-3 -> 8-3 8-3 -> 6-3 6-3 -> 4-3 4-3(LYLO) Voting Strat: ~Never, never never EVER RNG Lynch(Though there is that 25% chance >.<) ~We should always lynch d1 because without the first lynch we will lack lots of information without it. ~LA-Lurkers, If we don't find a lynch candidate I'm fine with lynching a lurker Lurkers: Lurkers HURT TOWN, if you are lurking STOP IT. I will not tolerate lurkers, in Mini Mafia's with not a lot of people Lurkers hurt real bad. Lurkers, hurt town how? ~Less Information ~Less possibilities for lynching ~Possibly a vote lost to town, because most lurkers sheep. Closing words: I will tolerate lurkers for the first 24 hours because not all players are awake/have acces to the computer to post. His take on roles: speculating about the role-distribution, not much content. But he assumes that either sinani or prplhz are scum. Not very likely that he would say that, if he was scum himself (now that we know sinani really was scum). His vote on sinensis is reasoned, nothing too strange. Then he posts some fluff which could be of help to unexperienced player, explaining some basic thoughts/rules about Mafia. Looks rather useless but it doesn´t hurt town in any way. After that he unvotes, votes and unvotes sinensis. Every vote/unvote is reasoned. Looks unconvinced but not scummy. He also calls out everyone who didn´t post (much) at that time. Normal thing to do. + Show Spoiler + On February 03 2012 09:28 Bluelightz wrote: Who I think is scum: Timeaisis: Sheeping as pointer by ET above, he wants to lynch prp but later when everybody votes Sentinel he votes Sentinel too! Sinensis: Random Lynching, Really?.Random lynching can be easily sabotaged because mafia can "fake" their random number. Vote Leaders, More easily sabotaged, the leader's opinion can be easily changed. Voting early is scummy?, what is your problem with people voicing their opinions?. It opens up way for more discussion. So, FoS:Sinensis FoS:Timeaisis A scum list, not reasoned that well but has at least some points. Aright statement. Again nothing too suspicious. + Show Spoiler + On February 03 2012 16:36 Bluelightz wrote: Hmm, @Sentinel I take back my setup guess so my latest guess of each and I think the setup is 1 DT & Medic + 7 vt + 2 scum + 1 rb Since Sentinel is getting bandwaggoned(?) I'm gonna see why poeple voted him Timeaisis You dont simply sheep, if you think prp is scum push HIM and not what other people think is scum.Though sheeping is not necesarrily scummy, I'm leaning scummy/newb town on him. This makes me suspicious of him, are you trying to lead town to not believe that there is a Hedonist? Sentinel's post could easily be a guess On his first paragraph, There is no way people can vote without reason on day1(not including sheeping). Would people just go away and just leave posts saying ##Vote: __________? Also coupled with some lurking( not thaat bad though) I am voting him. ##Vote: mderg Sinensis Voting cause other people voting him? Sup sheep.If you would vote someone you could at least provide a reason.This thing might be newb town so, I'm holding of the thought of lynching Sinensis Nisani He explains his reasons later on, and by the way he's posting he's Null to me. That's it Sinani please post some more, ty! Another setup speculation. I can´t see how that helps but I also don´t see it as hurting town Then he told Timeaisis to make his own thoughts and following them, not others. Not much content but what he said seems right to me. After that he voted me...I think this vote was rather rash and he didn´t provide many reason. He didn´t understand how I meant my points about Sentinel, though. I could have made it clearer. Seemed a bit strange to me but not really scummy. He proceeds to pressure sinensis and nisani for not properly reasoning their votes against sentinel. Right thing to do, not scummy. After some fluff and explaining that he´s indecisive he votes Timeaisis. I don´t understand that vote as Timeaisis was going to be lynched anyway. Seems a bit scummy to me. Then he states the obvious (it´s most likely) that at least 1 scum had voted Timeaisis. Again not helping but also not hurting town. After calling out BaronFel for lurkin, which I see as standard, he asks whether we should mass roleclaim. That seems scummy to me as there´s no way it would benefit town. Then he posts his list of reads on everyone. His list lacks reason, so it can´t be considered pro-town. + Show Spoiler + On February 06 2012 20:59 Bluelightz wrote: @ET Right now my list looks like this EchelonTee TheToast Nisani201 Sinensis mderg [UoN]Sentinel BaronFel prplhz Explained Below: Null - mderg, Sinensis : ~mderg's filter doesnt consist of much, I can't really conclude red or green on him.Though, he easily could be town or scum, can't be sure. ~Sinensis, he has been posting maybe 3 pages of 1-liners, and here's a compilation of some/most of them) + Show Spoiler + On February 04 2012 07:49 Sinensis wrote: And I'd only switch if we can't, for some reason, get a majority on Sentinel. On February 04 2012 07:49 Sinensis wrote: And I'd only switch if we can't, for some reason, get a majority on Sentinel. On February 04 2012 10:36 Sinensis wrote: You guys are about to kill a townie just because prplhz said "Well it's obviously Sentinel or Timeaisis" This is so obvious. On February 04 2012 10:40 Sinensis wrote: Imbeciles. On February 04 2012 11:25 Sinensis wrote: No one asked you scum. On February 04 2012 08:03 Sinensis wrote: I agree with that refutation, that game you posted wasn't even that long ago. On February 04 2012 11:29 Sinensis wrote: You, prplhz, and Bluelightz are dead once Time turns town. On February 04 2012 11:31 Sinensis wrote: You need to bold that. I made the same mistake. On February 04 2012 11:32 Sinensis wrote: Sorry Deadline is just CLOSE and people need to WAKE UP On February 04 2012 11:35 Sinensis wrote: Bet you're happy we don't have active players, aren't you scum? On February 04 2012 11:42 Sinensis wrote: When your motives are self preservation as a town member, arguments or comments on cases are pretty intuitive. On February 04 2012 12:14 Sinensis wrote: Looks like my primary suspects haven't changed. On February 05 2012 13:46 Sinensis wrote: I meant to reply right away, but I need to go afk for hours... sorry about this. I will try to get back with what Sentinel just said. On February 05 2012 13:53 Sinensis wrote: Sentinel, my feelings aren't hurt. It's actually fine bro. On February 05 2012 14:02 Sinensis wrote: You are number 3 suspect for scum of mine and I would think many people's list. Even if you're not scum, doesn't mean killing you wouldn't tell a lot. On February 05 2012 14:13 Sinensis wrote: Because holding out on it is going to help us, right? On February 05 2012 14:16 Sinensis wrote: In the words of my comrade Timeaisis who you helped execute, "Good to know." His voting, he never ever,ever has made a proper case on anyone he votes, example he say's mderg convinvnce me, but then he just straight up votes me. Townies: prplhz - His vigi claim makes me believe he's town all others - Due to their posting makes me think they are town ##Vote: Sinensis Reasons'above Another list without much reasoning behind it. At least he explains his null/scum reads.His changes in reads weren´t explained, though, which seems strange but not necessarily scummy. After that he posted mostly fluff, not much to conclude... But his reasoning for considering BaronFel as townie didn´t make much sense to me and seemed a bit scummy. I there was really nothing to read on BaronFel. My conclusion is that he is probably not scum, not because he made many pro-town posts but because he basically gave sinani 50% chance to be scum right from the start. I just don´t see any reason for him to do that, if he was scum. | ||
mderg
Germany1739 Posts
He starts the game with some fluff, I can´t read something out of that but this often happens at the beginning. The first real contribution is his case against Timeaisis: + Show Spoiler + On February 03 2012 08:47 EchelonTee wrote: So you think Sinensis is supicious for... you don't mention why actually, alright whatever. But you are suspicious of prplhz for starting a motion against someone you find supicious? Should you not be supportive of this move? As far as I'm concernced, prplhz and Sinensis are on opposite sides, at least ideologically if not red/green. Don't see how you can be suspicous of both when you posted this. Ok, you still are against them, ok consistency at least- Wait what da faq? 3 hours later you're on sentinel. But why? Oh right, there's a vote rolling on sentinel, that's your "reasoning". You realize, this is commonly known as bandwagoning. Care to consolidate your opinions? His first argument is reasonable. Timeaisis´ post is a bit contradicting. The second argument was the sudden change of mind, where Timeaisis decided to jump on the "sentinel bandwagon" without reasoning his vote properly. This post didn´t help town, obviously. But he gave sensible reasons for his vote, so I can´t say that he´s scum based on this. Then he posted this: + Show Spoiler + On February 03 2012 10:35 EchelonTee wrote: prplhz hasn't posted since his attack on sinensis. how is he being hostile and or scummy? Wtf? I'm pointing out your flippity floppity, not defending sentinel. idgaf about sentinel; however you're sowing chaos in thread. Your tone in this sentence: you're putting on airs as if you're exposing something underhanded I am doing, when in reality, you're just trying to discredit me with nothing. I was thinking that you were just newbie townie, your filter is full of stuff like this: Talking about being new over and over is a weak scum tell; giving yourself an excuse for bad reasoning/lack of actual analysis is scummy, but new players are often just that: new. But to emphasize your noobiness then start advancing bandwagons while having a curious lack of logic or initiative? you're newbie scum. ##Vote Timeaisis First he defended prplhz in a logical way, I can´t see an anti town intention here. Then he proceeds to clarify his intention of attacking timeaisis, not defending sentinel. He then continues his attack on timeaisis because he was emphasizing his noobiness. After looking back to it I can´t see that much in his attack on timeaisis anymore. He gathered reasons but there wasn´t anything that should´ve made our votes move that easy. Not that the analysis was bad but we should´ve gotten more thought into this. + Show Spoiler + On February 04 2012 06:03 EchelonTee wrote: ...you've used the word bandwagon too, have other people been misusing it unlike you? doesn't take a dictionary definition to see bandwagon. it's obvious. bandwagon analysis, as a subset of vote analysis, is a useful tool in mafia; don't discredit its use. Where did you say that you're not 100% convinced he's chaos? What I saw in your filter is that you believe that only Sentinel and Bluelightz have good analysis on them. The former, you now want to leave for later (hint: if you think someone is scummy why leave them for later), and the latter, you are the only one who analyzed him. What, so is my analysis on Timeaisis shit? Why does no one seem to want to address Timeaisis, or my points on him? That said, your points on Bluelightz here are pretty good, but how is prplhz bad? no one's posted anything of substance on him. Just saying "I think X is scummy" won't convince me. A lot of people seem to be acting based off emotion; that is, reactionary moves. Sinani against prplhz because of his random vote, Sinensis against everyone who voted him, Timeaisis now hates me (<3 you but I think you're chaos sry), and now Toast against prplhz cuz he said you're not making sense. You CANNOT build cases just because people are against you; not only does this result in cases devoid of logic, it's an easy way for scum to avoid making legitimate arguments. Please, if you think someone is scum, say WHY. quote their actual words for brownie points. This post seemed good on first glance but IMO it doesn´t have much content. The bandwagon part discredited a statement but it wasn´t important in any way. The next 2 paragraphs could have been posted in 2 lines. He could have just said that he thinks his analysis was useful, too. Then he again says something you could say in 2 lines and uses a whole paragraph for it. It´s not necessarily scummy but making long posts without much content doesn´t help that much. He proceeds to post some fluff that doesn´t help or hurt town, and he tries to strengthen his position by saying that him starting the bandwagon on timeaisis doesn´t make himself scum because nobody had objections. An understandable defence but nothing that makes a read on him easier. The next real content post was this: + Show Spoiler + On February 05 2012 17:49 EchelonTee wrote: 1. mass-roleclaim: terrible idea, exposes blues at a stage where there is no need to. how could you even suggest this. You're really fixated on roles this game. You're not talking about anything that is tangibly pertinent. This is a NORMAL Mini Mafia; role discussion is just fluffy fluff at this point. 2. you managed to post a list of green and null tells. good job. Did everyone forget about this post? It reflects a lot of my thoughts on bluelightz (wishywashy, posts nothing of use), yet it has gotten buried. Bluelightz never responded at all to the accusations, and his previous thought on who was scum (BaronFel), he now has as green? wtf? Sinensis been drinking some of that crazy juice, but he's not most scummy in thread atm. ##Vote Bluelightz Pointing out the stupidness of Bluelightz idea and his not reasoned list makes sense. But his main point is thetoast´s post which he didn´t follow on day 1. There wasn´t much of his own thoughts in his reasons but his post made sense. Then again some fluff and calling out BaronFel for his lurking and lack of reasoning. Pretty standard play regardless of alignment. Afte that he unvoted bluelightz beacause bluelightz didn´t push any scum agendas. There´s not much I can conclude from it. He could have had his reasons for it as townie and as scum. Nothing particulary scummy, though. After that he voted sinensis. + Show Spoiler + On February 07 2012 08:48 EchelonTee wrote: sigh sinensis... You're so stubborn that you don't realize you're wrong when the time stamps are clearly visible. Why are you STILL trying to discredit prplhz?? I don't give a shit if he's a vet or not. he SHOT sinani. despite all you people reading him as town. wtf have you done all game, besides insult people. Oh, is this supposed to be your master stroke? 1. The problem with gambits such as this, is that by doing a SUPER SCUMMY move, you make TOWN people suspicious of you. It never occurred to you that a townie might start the movement on you? This paragraph here is just so wtf. Are you saying that mderg is added to your "probably town list", just because he told you prplhz can't be mafia because of no CC?? I stated that before mderg. PRPLHZ stated that before mderg. It took a one liner from mderg to convince you? This just reeks of "try to make prplhz look bad at any cost". 2.I noticed this the first time you said it; didn't make sense then, doesn't make sense now. How can you CONFIRM anyone's innocence? It's D1, no flips, no night actions, nothing. You can't possibly use voting analysis at that state of the game. Look at sinani; you sure were convinced he was town because he voted for Blue, remember? I said I would be back before deadline. Placeholder vote is placeholder vote. Since you're so anxious, ##Vote: Sinensis I have a hard time understanding his reasons for the vote... he attacked sinensis´ defence in 1 but didn´t bring any real arguments. In 2 I don´t see any reason to vote for sinensis at all. This vote seems rather strange and a bit scummy to me. Not much content after that. My conclusion on him is that he didn´t post much content within his numeruos posts. He was the one wo started the timeaisis bandwagon (which isn´t a strong reason for considering him suspicious in itself) and he had a strange vote for sinensis. So I consider him suspicious but not very suspicious because he tried to give reasons for every vote. | ||
mderg
Germany1739 Posts
He didn´t post much let alone much content. He also didn´t give reasons for his votes by himself, we often had to ask for this. He voted for timeaisis on day 1 and insisted on voting sentinel whom he had attacked from the beginning of the game already. (also without much reasoning). IMO he hasn´t played pro-town at all. He didn´t post very much, so I couldn´t get many reads out of his posts but his lurking alone would already make him suspicious. BaronFel: Same as nisani he hasn´t contributed much. Other than nisani he gave reasons for his votes like in this post: + Show Spoiler + On February 04 2012 09:16 BaronFel wrote: After reading through the thread (sorry for "lurking", I'll try to post more), I am leaning towards Sinensis not being scum, but I think he's still dangerous with his ideas. (I personally feel his logic is sometimes faulty), but as you said it may just be extreme newness to the game. ##Unvote: Sinensis I think we should vote, but I'm not fully sold on Sentinal being scum just yet... and prplhz has been making stronger arguments since his rough start... ##Vote: Timeaisis For now (He has been acting odd, and I think playing up the "Im new" card a bit too much), although I'm still watching prplhz (for having such a surprising turn around of character) and Sinensis (for some questionable logic, which even as a townie, is dangerous). But he often refers to others posts and opinions and always went with the majority which makes it seem like he isn´t rying to find scum himself. BaronFel is a possible scum as he was lurking and not bringing in his own arguments. But he isn´t the main suspect because his play didn´t seem blatantly anti-town on the first 2 days. | ||
EchelonTee
United States5202 Posts
On February 07 2012 12:14 TheToast wrote: [...] analysis about ALL of the following people: mderg, EchelonTee, Nisani201 mderg - been fairly active all games, always explains what he's talking about. was not sold on Timeaisis being scum, and only voted Sinensis because he had to. Sort of non committal, but not scummy. EchelonTee - he's handsome. Nisani201 - lurking a lot, identified sinensis as not scum very early. he didn't have to. hasn't contributed much but has been consistent on his suspicion of Sentinel. I'm unconvinced he's red. On February 07 2012 23:02 BaronFel wrote: After looking through Nisani201's filter, I think he's rather suspicious (short posts, didn't explain his decisions much). He's probably my main suspect at this point. Though your posts are slightly longer than Nisani's, how are you any better than him? | ||
mderg
Germany1739 Posts
Started the game with some fluff and roleplaying. Nothing to conclude from this. Was against voting sinensis at the start and tried to pressure bluelightz very early in the game. I can´t see that as anti-town. The early bandwagon was indeed strange. He then attacks sinensis for his random lynch/vote leader suggestion: + Show Spoiler + On February 03 2012 03:02 TheToast wrote: Sinensis you are ever increasing the evidence against you. Why you keep advocating dumb vote systems, over just figuring out who is scum and killing them, is beyond me. Why are you so against the idea of analysis? Scum have 1 kp per night in this game. Meaning if we accidentally lynch a town member Mafia will then kill another town member. So no, we cannot risk just randomly killing someone. We need to figure out who is scum and lynch them today or go no lynch. (I prefer the d1 lynch, but if we can't agree better to lose only 1 townie instead of 2). Also, we've been talking about options for the last few pages. You are so far one of the few who have not put forward some ideas about who should go down for the D1 lynch. You keep trying to railroad the thread towards your ideas but you have provided almost no analysis about who you think is scum. I would call you out for being scum, but I can't help but think that if you were the other two mafia members would be trying to get you to stop posting stuff. See that may have been a good idea if you hadn't announced it to the whole thread. I don´t like the idea of a no lynch day 1 because we wouldn´t get much information, so I´d rather have a townie lynched, if there´s anything to get (If we really had no idea about anyone, we could just give up anyway). I don´t see that as pro-town. Then he wants sinensis to voice his ideas for whom to lynch. At least not anti-town. After some fluff he proceeded with an attack/analysis on bluelightz´ play: + Show Spoiler + On February 04 2012 01:43 TheToast wrote: Alright, with just over 11 hours left to go in Day1, it's time to make my call. Up until now, I've been trying to collect as much information as possible, and I think I've got what I need. Right now I'm convinced that Bluelightz is Scum. But first let's start off with why Sinesis: is a townie. I was pretty worried about him a few pages back, he seemed to be advocating for a vote system that clearly was a benefit to Mafia. After I called him out about it, suddendly he started suspecting the same people that a few posts earlier I had expressed suspecion about and then said I was confirmed town. Odd. But in reviewing his posts, I found two interesting details: To me these quotes suggest that Sinesis really just doesn't know how the game works. His idea about the "vote leader" also suggests townie to me, Mafia would know they could just use their KP on that person. Newer mafia player is also going to be much more reserved, rather than come out loudly suggesting terrible ideas. I think an agent of the enemy would look fairer, and feel fowler Bluelightz Let's start with the obvious scum. His first post is a dead giveaway: + Show Spoiler [Long Ass Post] + On February 02 2012 18:09 Bluelightz wrote: Sup guys got my role PM anyway, Here's my take on roles 1 Of the vets(Sinani/prplhz) is SCUM(Not sure about this tho if GM wants to screw with us 3/3 Chaos Followers Remain ?/1 Chaos Cultist(s) ?/1 Chaos Fatespinner(s) ?/1 Chaos Plaguebearer(s) ?/0 Chaos Hedonist(s) 9/9 Imperial Forces Remain ?/5/6 Imperial Guardsmen ?/1?Imperial Priest(s) ?/1? Imperial Psyker(s) ?/1?Imperial Stormtrooper(s) ?/1? Imperial Commissar(s) ?/1/2? Tainted By Chaos DISREGARD ANY CLAIMS BESIDES THE TOWN ROLES ABOVE. Also, note to everyone if we have a dt please breadcrumb your results so if you die we can find them Never, NEVER, I repeat never NO LYNCH D1 Anyways to who I think is possibly a traitor among us, ##Vote: Sinensis No one, should decide who to lynch, people themselves should decide who to vote. Also: Fluff "I think we should kill first night, I think we should kill first night again" VOTING How many mislynches till LYLO( including mafia kills, but not delay) not including possible vig kills/dt checks/medic heals/vet hits + Show Spoiler + 12-3 -> 10-3 10-3 -> 8-3 8-3 -> 6-3 6-3 -> 4-3 4-3(LYLO) Voting Strat: ~Never, never never EVER RNG Lynch(Though there is that 25% chance >.<) ~We should always lynch d1 because without the first lynch we will lack lots of information without it. ~LA-Lurkers, If we don't find a lynch candidate I'm fine with lynching a lurker Lurkers: Lurkers HURT TOWN, if you are lurking STOP IT. I will not tolerate lurkers, in Mini Mafia's with not a lot of people Lurkers hurt real bad. Lurkers, hurt town how? ~Less Information ~Less possibilities for lynching ~Possibly a vote lost to town, because most lurkers sheep. Closing words: I will tolerate lurkers for the first 24 hours because not all players are awake/have acces to the computer to post. Spoilering because it is STUPID long What is all of this? Is any of this useful information? No. This is all pointless junk that bluelightz threw in because he wanted to make it seem like he was doing some in depth analysis. What he really did was just call out the townie who was being the loudest and avocating a dumb idea. A very clear Mafia tactic. Look back, it was actually bluelightz who started the bandwagon on Sinesis. After Sinesis accuses him of having an agenda, Bluelightz immediately changes course and unvotes Sinesis. Then prplhz hops on the bandwagon (remember this) as does [UoN]Sentinel. Based on this development Bluelightz decides to again vote for Sinesis. (why in the world would two other people voting for the same guy make you change your vote???) When I called out Bluelightz for this very thing, he AGAIN changed course and unvoted Sinesis. After ET calls out Timeasis, Bluelightz again hops on the bandwagon and FOS's him. Then bluelightz changes him mind AGAIN and votes mdrg + Show Spoiler [Another Long Ass Post] + On February 03 2012 16:36 Bluelightz wrote: Hmm, @Sentinel I take back my setup guess so my latest guess of each and I think the setup is 1 DT & Medic + 7 vt + 2 scum + 1 rb Since Sentinel is getting bandwaggoned(?) I'm gonna see why poeple voted him Timeaisis You dont simply sheep, if you think prp is scum push HIM and not what other people think is scum.Though sheeping is not necesarrily scummy, I'm leaning scummy/newb town on him. This makes me suspicious of him, are you trying to lead town to not believe that there is a Hedonist? Sentinel's post could easily be a guess On his first paragraph, There is no way people can vote without reason on day1(not including sheeping). Would people just go away and just leave posts saying ##Vote: __________? Also coupled with some lurking( not thaat bad though) I am voting him. ##Vote: mderg Sinensis Voting cause other people voting him? Sup sheep.If you would vote someone you could at least provide a reason.This thing might be newb town so, I'm holding of the thought of lynching Sinensis Nisani He explains his reasons later on, and by the way he's posting he's Null to me. That's it Sinani please post some more, ty! Interesting thing here is the defense of Sentinel. "Since Sentinel is getting bandwaggoned(?) I'm gonna see why poeple voted him". Okay. Then proceeds to "see" why Timeasis went against Sentinel. Now wait, this seems more like you are telling Timeasis should not vote Sentinel. Not really a fair analysis. Then he proceeds to "analyze" Mderg. Wait, so we went from seeing "why" people were bandwagoning on Sentinel (without giving ANY reason why you thought Sentinel was clean) to accusing mderg in one paragraph. Wtf? I also find it interesting that after mderg points out what may be a mafia slip up from Sentinel, you immediately start attacking him. Smooth. What's the defense to all of this? KIND OF???? At this point I am 100% convinced that Bluelightz is Chaos scum, and he would seem to have inadvertantly fingered Sentinel along with him. Right now I'm going Bluelightz as I am very sure he is Mafia, less so about Sentinel. I would prefer to take out the confirmed scum first, but if we get close to Night 1 and most votes are still on Sentinel, I will switch to ensure we get the 7 needed. ##Vote Bluelightz After he said that he´s convinced about bluelightz being scum he started the analysis with explaining why he thought that sinensis was town. Strange order to do things but I don´t think it tells anything about him. He expalins sinensis being town by emphasizing how sinensis doesn´t seem to know how the game exactly works. Good point and -as we know- sinensis flipped town, so I consider this as pro-town behavior. After that the analysis on bluelightz followed. He first points out the strange vote/unvote changes. Then the advise to timeaisis that he should follow his own suspicions, not someone else´s. It was a bit out of place from bluelightz but it didn´t make him suspicious IMO. The analysis of the vote on me that followed wasn´t that convincing but made sense, so the vote was justified. After that he explained his opinion on timeaisis and why he wasn´t scum in his opinion. + Show Spoiler + On February 04 2012 02:36 TheToast wrote: I highly doubt that Timeaisis is scum. First is the fact that he is a first time Mafia, GM is not the kind of host that would put a first time player on scumteam. Very quick way for the game to be over. His vote against Vilonis also tips me off that he is townie, Mafia would not want to draw extra attention to themselves like that. First time Mafia also tend to want to lurk to avoid causing any suspecion. Also his current vote is on Sentinel. Most of us seem to be in agreement that there is a good chance Sentinel is scum, a view I hope you would support since that's who you have voted. Mafia (epsecially first time Mafia) are not going to jump onto the bandwagon of one of their own. His analysis is not very good. Going with the flow does not indicate scummyness, actually probably the oposite. Focus on the people we have good analysis against so far; Sentinel and Bluelightz. Whoever the third person is, I am willing to bet they are more of a Vet. There are a few people who have so far been playing too perfectly, I don't want to call anyone out yet before we have good evidence as I don't want to risk a townie getting bandwagoned. But there are a few people we need to focus on to get more information from. Take a look, I think you will see the people I am talking about. His first point was purely speculation and refuted by GM when he said that the roles were randomized. The vote against Vilonis didn´t indicate a townie beahavior IMO it´s rather neutral, scum can also call out lurkers and possibly get an easy lynch. I also didn´t like the argument that going with the flow is town like behavior rather than scummy behavior as scum can easily hide in the majority. So I didn´t like his defence of timeaisis but as found out later he was right about the alignment. He then proceeds to attack prplhz for voting without real reasons and continues to attack bluelightz. Made sense, more town like behavior. This took a really long time so please don´t mind spelling/grammar mistakes etc. Just a general not that well reasoned list of reads: Bluelightz IMO rather town than scum, not safe to assume, though EchelonTee IMO suspicious but no serious suspicion TheToast IMO rather town than scum but not confirmed Nisani201 IMO rather scum than town, my first target [UoN]Sentinel IMO hard to imagine as scum BaronFel IMO not cleared my feeling tells me that he´s town prplhz pretty much confirmed town | ||
mderg
Germany1739 Posts
gonna sleep now, so I won´t respond today | ||
TheToast
United States4808 Posts
On February 08 2012 04:08 prplhz wrote: If you trusted me then why didn't you vote with me? Did any of the rest of you back down because they trust in confirmed townies and because they think I'm a good scumhunter? (I DID kill a scum night1, that's not too bad you know) Kinda looks like you're making this shit up. Anyway, I'm decided. I'm pushing you tomorrow. What? Don't you think if Nisani were scum that he would have been voting on the town lynching bandwagon with you both days? Don't you think Nisani would have wanted to kill Time and Sinesis? Idk what to make of this, unless this is just a CYA thing because you are afraid of getting shot tonight. | ||
prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
On February 08 2012 07:15 TheToast wrote: What? Don't you think if Nisani were scum that he would have been voting on the town lynching bandwagon with you both days? Don't you think Nisani would have wanted to kill Time and Sinesis? Idk what to make of this, unless this is just a CYA thing because you are afraid of getting shot tonight. With this kind of logic we can also exclude sinani206 from being scum. That's how bad it is. I doubt Nisani201 thinks I'm a better scum hunter than he is for real, I've played like 3 games with him and I sucked in all of them. Like, get-lynched-day2-as-townie-with-having-a-single-correct-scum-read-sucked in the last one I remember. Anyway, he's pushed his own lynches in games with scum hunters who are way better than I am, he's pretty confident in his own reads, as townies often are. You're an over-the-top example of that in a "I'm townie, thus I'm right, thus every argument I use must be right" kind of way so you should be able to see the validity of my argument. I have no idea what "CYA thing" means but it's probably stupid and unimportant. I'm kinda hoping I get shot tonight but scum probably aren't that merciful. | ||
redFF
United States3910 Posts
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BaronFel
United States155 Posts
On February 08 2012 06:53 EchelonTee wrote: Though your posts are slightly longer than Nisani's, how are you any better than him? I feel like Nisani hasn't always explained himself and his actions clearly. I try to explain my reasoning and if it happens to agree with someone else, I try not to repeat and add in fluff. I think sometimes Toast can be aggressive in his pursuit, but still isn't my main suspect. | ||
TheToast
United States4808 Posts
As I said before, I'm not sure about Nisani being scum, he has twice now been on the opposite side of the bandwagons against town members. Doesn't mean he's clean but seems to avert my suspicions for now. Though I am again worried about prphlz deciding to declare a crusade against someone with absolutely no evidence or reasoning. I'm not entirely sure he's town, but that may just be coming from his lack of contributions this game. I really don't see any evidence against him as a sum players. Which of course brings me to ET. I already wrote up my thoughts on ET's posts for day 1 here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=306452¤tpage=16#319 (sorry for the messed up quotes) My conclusion at the time was that he was just terrible at analysis. But seeing that he did it again Day 2 I am getting a bit worried. Not much to go on for ET's posts Day2, the only one of real substance is where he accused Sinesis: On February 07 2012 08:48 EchelonTee wrote: sigh sinensis... You're so stubborn that you don't realize you're wrong when the time stamps are clearly visible. Why are you STILL trying to discredit prplhz?? I don't give a shit if he's a vet or not. he SHOT sinani. despite all you people reading him as town. wtf have you done all game, besides insult people. Oh, is this supposed to be your master stroke? 1. The problem with gambits such as this, is that by doing a SUPER SCUMMY move, you make TOWN people suspicious of you. It never occurred to you that a townie might start the movement on you? This paragraph here is just so wtf. Are you saying that mderg is added to your "probably town list", just because he told you prplhz can't be mafia because of no CC?? I stated that before mderg. PRPLHZ stated that before mderg. It took a one liner from mderg to convince you? This just reeks of "try to make prplhz look bad at any cost". 2.I noticed this the first time you said it; didn't make sense then, doesn't make sense now. How can you CONFIRM anyone's innocence? It's D1, no flips, no night actions, nothing. You can't possibly use voting analysis at that state of the game. Look at sinani; you sure were convinced he was town because he voted for Blue, remember? I said I would be back before deadline. Placeholder vote is placeholder vote. Since you're so anxious, ##Vote: Sinensis I don't have a problem with the first part. Sinesis majorly muddied the waters day 1, I also called out Sinesis for this so I can't hold this against ET. The second half of this argument makes no sense to me. Essentially ET is saying that Sinesis is scum for going after prphlz. I should point out that I did as well, and said I was not going to move my vote until I was sure there was not going to be a counter claim. Sinesis followed me in this. We both moved our votes when it became clear that no one was going to counter claim. How does that make him scum and me not? I'm not sure I understand point 2 at all. ET thought he was scum because he was unhappy that ET's bad analysis lead to Time getting lynched? I don't understand this at all. Either way this is pretty much the bulk of ET's posting from Day2, not much to go on so I really can't get a good read. Still on my list of suspicions though. Not sure what is going on with BaronFel, I can't make head or tails of his (lack of) posting. I guess we will have to see who gets the axe Night 2 and try to analyze it. I'm still wondering why Violinis was the mafia hit day 1, looking at the two together may give us some insight into who is on the right track. Hopefully I'm still here by then :S | ||
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